qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Let's hope that is the plan in both DOS/USCIS minds.
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qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Let's hope that is the plan in both DOS/USCIS minds.
to Veni:
thank you for the reply.
Based on the link you provided are there 66426(EB2 & EB3 for india and china together)? can you tell me how to know how many are eb2 out of this?
thanx in advance
I had written earlier that the last VB actually made it more likely that there would be BTM - it seems the newly available data supports that. I think it will all get tied together with the fee receipts in the end. Who knew that USCIS/DoS actually have a plan and seems like a pretty good plan as well. Makes me almost hopeful for future, Almost.
nnnnn123,Quote:
Originally Posted by nnnnn123
Assuming all certified PERMs will make it to i140 stage, Calender Year(CY) monthly PERM breakdown(by Spec) will give you better picture of projected EB2IC demand.
I would take the following split(average) for EB2:EB3 (both I&C)
FY 2007 & 2008 - 65:35
FY 2009 & 2010 - 70:30
FY2011 forward - 75:25
You may also want to check PERM FY-CY Matrix.
Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29
Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.
Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.
For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.
For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”
Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date
August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107
BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2
January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015
Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.
Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.
This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.
nishant2200,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Your numbers are somewhat on the high side, If you look at EBIC PERM Certifications, CY2007 & CY2008 have almost same number of (I&C) PERM Certifications! If we use the known IC demand for 2007 and do the projections (Spec discussed this approach few pages back) then we are looking at an additional 10K EB2I and 4K EB2C demand until 01JAN2008. Same approach will yield about 30K EB2IC demand for CY 2008 (or about 7.5K per quarter).
You may want to check i140 to 485 ratios posted under FACTS AND DATA section(EB2 averaging about 2.04).
nishant, thanks for your analysis and hard work.
Your number is very close to my estimation. My number is a little lower than yours, but really close. Several months ago on MITBBS I estimated the demand before 6/30/2008 will be around 35k plus porting number.
Your logic makes perfect sense. My personal feeling is that in the next VB they may move PD exactly one year ahead-4/15/2008. Keep fingers crossed!
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.
Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date
August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748
BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2
January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143
BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.
Hence scenarios:
BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand
qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.
Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.
At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.
I am thinking of a scenario that might have an effect on SOFAD calculations in future. Right now South Korea gets a lot of EB2 numbers (4793 in FY2010, compared to 19961 for India and 6505 for China, as per the DOS annual report) and should really be retrogressed - but avoids that fate because its FB+EB numbers are below the 7% threshold. Now, if it happens to hit that limit, then it will be subject to the usual EB2 quota of 2.8K and anything over that will be part of the backlog - so essentially 2K extra numbers for the across portion of SOFAD to India/China.
Do we know if Korea is close to hitting the 7% limit like India and China already have?
Update: Turns out that Korea's FB usage is really low - just 2592 in FY2010 compared to 16022 for India and 14551 for China - data from DOS annual report. So I guess its not hitting the 7% limit anytime soon. The 7% rule sucks BTW - its horrible that even in EB3, some countries get a lot more than 2.8K that India and China get. Similarly in EB2, Korea crosses 2.8K without any retrogression. Why link FB with EB - makes no sense!
imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.
Regarding BTM - I know we are all wishing for a large BTM (or BAM as was suggested a few posts before) - we should keep in mind though that we actually would not want the BTM to be too large - it should be just enough to finish by the end of next spillover season with small enough gap between demand and supply (demand > supply) that the gap can be filled by CP and a new BTM can be generated for the year after.
In case the BTM right now is too large and the SOFAD next year is not large enough to cover it then at this time next year we will not have the possibility of the next BTM. This will be a bad situation because then we will not have pre-adjudicated cases for the 2014 spillover season.
Hi Gurus.
What is the chances of September VB. What will next PD in September VB.
Thanks,
Shreya
Nishant - I personally don't have a problem with Koreans (or anybody) working crazy hours to file EB2 - but I have a problem with stupid rules that allow one country to be retrogressed for close to a decade and allow other countries to get more visas than the retrogressed countries.
BTW - the whole idea of a fixed numerical limit that is same for China and for Chad (less population than Shanghai itself) is completely ridiculous. Anyways - its just a rant - the rules are what they are - we need to work with the system - so lets get back to calculations and predictions. Great work on calculating demand sizes for different BTMs Nishant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I have the same feelings with you. I have no issue with other ethnic groups. Some South Koreans can get EB2 in several months, but China/India applicants need to wait for at least 4-5 years. Our waiting time is almost 10 times of South Koreans. Every year a large number of South Korean applicants can get EB2 done in several months. Even for EB3, China EB3 only has several thousand demand, but the PD for China EB3 only moved 1 week in this bulliten. Indian EB3 applicants have to wait for ten years or more to get a green card. Many people gave up opportunities to visit family back in India/China because of the long wait of GC. Many Indian/China applicants have to stay on the same position for ten years or more. This system is not humane at all. The purpose of this 7% limit is to keep a balance of immigration from different countries, but it does not help much because several millions Mexican folks already crossed border without paper work. This 7% rule was designed to prevent the appearance of a dorminant immigration group, but it already failed big time.
I wish all the Indian/Chinese EB2/EB3 applicants can end this long wait and get GC as soon as possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Your updated version is perfect! Thanks for your analysis.
Let's keep our fingers crossed and see what will happen in the next VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Something off the topic: I think the other reason for the huge number of Korean applicants is that a large number of Korean students are studying in the graduate schools in US. The number of Korean students is very close to Chinese/Indian students in US. I heard the average income in South Korea is pretty high, but the living cost is even higher. Every immigrant just wants to have a better life here, it's understandable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
If the objective of the BTM is to build a pipeline for next spillover season then it does not make sense to keep different PDs for India and China since they will come together during spillover season anyway. If there would be a BTM then I imagine it would have the same PD for India and China. There is really no reason to keep them different and add another reason of complexity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I understand why you are saying that, but since those numbers could only be allocated during spillover season, wouldn't they have to share the same Cut Off date?
In that case, combining China & India totals presents no problems. I agree China and India will have different Cut Off Dates leading up to the FY2012 spillover season.
Total EB2-China demand before 1/1/2008 should be around 3k.
I also calculated the EB2-China demand before 6/30/2008 should be around 5k.
I think it's possible EB-2 China will get ahead of EB-2 India during the first 2 or 3 quarters, but still the yearly visa number for China can not meet the yearly demand. We will have to rely on spillover in the next summer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Calculations look pretty neat according to the numbers available.
1) In 2007, from previous inventory, i see that there are average ~2000 pending applicants/months for IC ( July is unusual as lot more used some others labor certs) with many labors being substitutes ( from my friends sample, 50% are substitutes).
2) If i look at my Masters friends, many people got married to fellow students ( especially girls), 80 to 90% of those labors/I140 did not/will not convert to 485's ( we can consider most of them are Girls)
3) My friends/peers close to 100 students community and around 30H1B friends who did not file/used labors till July 2007 -- only 10-15 of us did not get a chance to file I-485 and almost 90% of remaining people got their GC's already.
Looking at above personal sample - i am feeling 33k from August'2007 to June'2008 is little more??
Probably my circle of friends are different?
Does any one have this kind of experience?
2.04 dependent factor is probably good number.
imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library :D . My co-worker tells me it's a very common scene along all US universities.
Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.
grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.
I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.
Expecting BTM in septemeber bulletin may be stretch, as per the information posted CO said once Aug15th 2007 is reached then there will be considerations for intake.
so, If infact the dates will move to Aug15 in next bulletin, may be then BTM can be expected in the following month.
Guys, not sure if I missed something, but is the source reliable? are we over reacting? Few days ago when the bulletin was pulled back there were rumors saying that the date will be moved to April 2008.. is this the same guy who is saying that there are 19K visas left?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
The other thing I want to add is that many NIW applicants have got their GC through EB1. As far as I know, many Chinese NIW applicants published more papers during the waiting and upgraded to EB1. It's possible the real demand is smaller than our expectation. I agree that 20k SOFAD is the least number we can get next year.
Keep fingers crossed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I think it is reliable. This guy/girl emailed Mr. CO and this information is from the email.
Last time the rumor about VB typo was a joke and nobody was serious about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
Like a lot of us, s/he was hoping it was a typo when the August VB was out.
NO, somebody else dug out 19k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
I am not sure its reliable at all.It was way off mark with Aug prediction.It predicted massive movement in August.
Q,Spec,Veni and Teddy do a much better job here backed with solid data and stats.
Friends ... i wouldn't have quoted the chiense source had i not sensed some credibility. We will know better in September of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
qbf why woud you say that? Next year EB1 and EB2ROW might come back roaring. Especially EB1? This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EB1 demand was considerably low for fy2011, right? are you saying the 12k that CO announced in April was due to backlog not because of existing low demand and projecting low demand?
Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189
What would be the prediction for Cutoff date for September '2011 ?
Q, I will take your word on it. But I am wondering why Mr. CO will reply to any persons e-mail. If such was the case then any of us could open up that communication channel to know about potential movements. Am I missing something here?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nishanth,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Just curious if you have calculated any relation between trackit data whose 140 is approved and Priority date is between August'2007 to April'2008.
I see that there are around 450 India of this kind of cases and 50 From China. And i believe most of them did not filed I485
I am not sure how trackit data vs real data is related in past.
The fundamental demand at labor 140 level is not any lower. It was denied/choked at 485 level. The one that was denied doesn't come back in 2012 to EB1. It could still come back to EB2ROW. The one that was choked i.e. backlogged (~6-8K) will come back in EB1 itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
My gut feel more than anything. Maybe other chinese people on this forum can explain better; the google translation is difficult but what i read told me they have a standing mechanism - a legal one - to get info from VO. And I think its something different that FOIA (freedom of information act) that you and I also have.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
Quote:
Originally Posted by desi4green
What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks for your help in advance.
This sounds interesting...could have been the consequence of their court-case last year.
If some of our Chinese friends can confirm that would be great.
VO communicating with people had happened before, CO's emails that got posted on the forum looked authentic too. Only thorn for me is the 'several months' movement that was speculated for August-VB, that did not happen. It could have been a translation error too, because it did move more than a month forward?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by desi4green
Thank you Leo. I think that is probably right. Again if the chinese source himself could come here and help us understand that would be best. If not anybody else who may have insight is welcome to explain.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.
The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks qblogfan!
I was under the impression that both the news is from same source. If that's not true, my whole premise falls apart. Actually, I want it fall apart :) Thanks again!
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan