EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

Hello Q and other experts,

Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


Appreciate your inputs as always !

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Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk

No Q. 2K per day started around 7/27. Before that it was between 500 and 1000/day, of which 60-80% were FY20 receipt approvals. Moreover, this is only MSC. TSC and LIN are still between 30 and 90/day.

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Originally Posted by ImmiGiveMe

Approval of ~2k per day I-485 applications dose not mean that all 2k are EB. In Q4 we have 64 working days. So, total (~128K) I-485 approvals can happen and in that god knows how many will be EB.

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See this is why I am so hesitant to comment on other people's data. I have never visited any of these websites and I have no clue what they do and how they do it.

So I am sorry I can't take this discussion further.

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Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting

Q - You said that you won't comment anymore, but you can't escape so easily:D.

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I am a very gullible person who can easily be goaded into a conversation :)
I do agree with your analysis. Because of USCIS/DOS' opacity the grounds of assumptions are always shaky. But with the available information I am leaning towards 200K usage.

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Originally Posted by Immig7

Hello Q and other experts,

Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


Appreciate your inputs as always !

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If you can downgrade / upgrade - always do it without waiting. My understanding is that - in reality down or upgrading is filing yet another application for green card in other category. So if your sponsor is willing to do that - just do it.

As per which category will move faster or slower - i will let others chime in.

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Originally Posted by Immig7

Hello Q and other experts,

Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


Appreciate your inputs as always !

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If I were you, I will downgrade and not speculate as soon as the filing date is current. You may absolutely want to ensure you file concurrently in the same month too. Never take anything for granted with USCIS and its all about getting the Pprwrk. in reasonably good order ASAP to them with a sense of urgency. Wishing the very best for you and your son and I really hope you are able to freeze his legal age in coming months. I think for our PD its really tough to predict which category will move the fastest though, I somehow believe it will still be EB3 ahead of EB2 atleast for all of Q1 in fiscal 2022. But take this as just my personal opinion and please do your research.

Did anyone attend Charlie's talk today ?

Looks like there will be no movement of dates in Oct 21 VB.. On wastage, he did not say anything about less wastage than expected before....

If Jan 1 2014 is the EB3I final action date for Sept. 2021 & March 1 2014 is the filing date for Oct 2021, it follows that USCIS will be wasting nearly ALL extra EB visas for this year - Jan 1 2014 indicates the priority date for which visas are available now. March 2014 (filing date Oct 21 VB) indicates priority dates for which visas are expected to be availble by end of 2022 fiscal/Sept 2022. Note that the Extra visas for next fiscal are expected to be higher accounting for the extra 2 month movement.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

Did anyone attend Charlie's talk today ?

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It is a complete waste of time. He sounds like a propagandist for USCIS, giving umpteen excuses for why visas are being wasted by them. When he refuses to answer specific questions that fall in the USCIS domain, his volunteering on the extent of visa wastage by USCIS and perfectly reasonable reasons thereof makes him the lowest of the lowly scums that inhabit the US government immigration machinery.

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Originally Posted by Positive

If Jan 1 2014 is the EB3I final action date for Sept. 2021 & March 1 2014 is the filing date for Oct 2021, it follows that USCIS will be wasting nearly ALL extra EB visas for this year - Jan 1 2014 indicates the priority date for which visas are available now. March 2014 (filing date Oct 21 VB) indicates priority dates for which visas are expected to be availble by end of 2022 fiscal/Sept 2022. Note that the Extra visas for next fiscal are expected to be higher accounting for the extra 2 month movement.

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This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).

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Originally Posted by gammaray

This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).

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When did they set filing date of Jan 1 2015 for EB3 in 2021 fiscal year?

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Originally Posted by Positive

When did they set filing date of Jan 1 2015 for EB3 in 2021 fiscal year?

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I'm assuming that's rhetorical. Because it was October and not August or September.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).

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I give you Oct 2020 visa bulletin filing dates:https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ober-2020.html

yeah, and Charlie said the filing date for OCt 2021 VB will be March 2014.

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Originally Posted by Positive

It is a complete waste of time. He sounds like a propagandist for USCIS, giving umpteen excuses for why visas are being wasted by them. When he refuses to answer specific questions that fall in the USCIS domain, his volunteering on the extent of visa wastage by USCIS and perfectly reasonable reasons thereof makes him the lowest of the lowly scums that inhabit the US government immigration machinery.

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My impression is that USCIS showed CO who is the boss long time back when they flat out refused to honor his 485 filing dates. He may be a good guy but now his role relative to visa control is more administrative than ever.

Generally speaking US has developed a white man's sub-culture that is utterly afraid of Indian men who they would like to treat like black men but just can't. Indians can't be boxed into the stereotypes that they use for black men. And as a result this Trumpian subculture is afraid of Indians who are taking away their well paid jobs. The same people were not at all worried when that happened to their brothers in Ohio Michigan Indiana Wisconsin and the entire rust belt was outsourced to China. But with Indians taking away the best of the best white collar jobs and now the hell has broken loose.

That's the real reason behind all the inefficiency. I have an open challenge to USCIS. I will cut their costs in half and deliver twice as output in 3 years. Anybody in USCIS listening reach out to me.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

My impression is that USCIS showed CO who is the boss long time back when they flat out refused to honor his 485 filing dates. He may be a good guy but now his role relative to visa control is more administrative than ever.

Generally speaking US has developed a white man's sub-culture that is utterly afraid of Indian men who they would like to treat like black men but just can't. Indians can't be boxed into the stereotypes that they use for black men. And as a result this Trumpian subculture is afraid of Indians who are taking away their well paid jobs. The same people were not at all worried when that happened to their brothers in Ohio Michigan Indiana Wisconsin and the entire rust belt was outsourced to China. But with Indians taking away the best of the best white collar jobs and now the hell has broken loose.

That's the real reason behind all the inefficiency. I have an open challenge to USCIS. I will cut their costs in half and deliver twice as output in 3 years. Anybody in USCIS listening reach out to me.

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The only thing I would add is that this animosity to Indians is across the board and cuts across party lines. As for Charlie, my problem with him is him preening on live video every month for NO GOOD REASON. The only people who care about VB dates are backlogged Indians and he has little control over their fate. Also, he doesn't have to defend USCIS, he can take his otherwise no comments on USCIS matters line. But no, he takes the initiative to go praising them for not doing their jobs and justify it. Also, the family visa guys in the US keep begging him to move dates when visas are available and going unused at the consulates but he keeps repeating they have enough application (at the consulates which they are not processing and may not for the foreseeable future). He goes for the hypothetical of consulated opening up full steam tomorrow. He is an excuse for a human being. I don't care if he is a good man. The path to hell is paved with good intentions.

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Originally Posted by Positive

The only thing I would add is that this animosity to Indians is across the board and cuts across party lines.

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at times yes.

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Originally Posted by Positive

As for Charlie, my problem with him is him preening on live video every month for NO GOOD REASON.

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Couldn't agree more! He should really think hard what's the point if he cant be of use.

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Originally Posted by Positive

He is an excuse for a human being.

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That's going too far. Don't take this personally. He is just part of the system and could very well be a friend for all you know. At the very least he is trying to face people and answer some questions.

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Originally Posted by Positive

The path to hell is paved with good intentions.

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That's so profound - I am going to remember this.

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Originally Posted by Positive

I give you Oct 2020 visa bulletin filing dates:https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ober-2020.html

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huh? So what's your point? It was October last year when the spillover was factored in. It's August now.
The reasons the FD remains the same for October FY22 are various factors -- given the slug of demand last October they probably need to determine the actual (and not anticipated) carryover demand, the Meng amendment that CO referenced might be in play, and USCIS still trying to process applications from Oct. 2021. Opening the dates further will only overwhelm them further. Co is being conservative for the reasons listed to avoid retrogression as much as possible as he indicated.

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Originally Posted by Positive

The only thing I would add is that this animosity to Indians is across the board and cuts across party lines. As for Charlie, my problem with him is him preening on live video every month for NO GOOD REASON. The only people who care about VB dates are backlogged Indians and he has little control over their fate. Also, he doesn't have to defend USCIS, he can take his otherwise no comments on USCIS matters line. But no, he takes the initiative to go praising them for not doing their jobs and justify it. Also, the family visa guys in the US keep begging him to move dates when visas are available and going unused at the consulates but he keeps repeating they have enough application (at the consulates which they are not processing and may not for the foreseeable future). He goes for the hypothetical of consulated opening up full steam tomorrow. He is an excuse for a human being. I don't care if he is a good man. The path to hell is paved with good intentions.

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What is amusing is the sense of entitlement and the need for degrading other human beings. The inefficiencies of the state department and USCIS are not the cause of decades of wait times. It may add weeks or months but not the years that people are disgruntled about. People need to look inward first, to their own community, on how the backlog was exacerbated with exploitation by their own community (IT companies, etc.) in addition to the archaic and inherently flawed laws of this country with respect to employment immigration.

And I'll repeat my feelings on the subject -- no country on earth has the volume of immigrants that this country sees and processes, and I am willing to bet in most other countries processing would be much worse at these volumes. That's not a justification, just reality.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

at times yes.

Couldn't agree more! He should really think hard what's the point if he cant be of use.

That's going too far. Don't take this personally. He is just part of the system and could very well be a friend for all you know. At the very least he is trying to face people and answer some questions.

That's so profound - I am going to remember this.

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:) Charlie has done little to nothing to use his position to help. What kind of friend does that. Not just that he refuses to use his powers to force USCIS' hand, he goes all in licking their boots. There is really no room left anymore to give him the benefit of doubt. A lot of Charlie's good reputation is built on a) him making everyone current in 2007 to force USCIS's hand; b) good PR from his chats with AILA (before he started these public chats), which the lawyers really valued and couldn't stop gushing over his good intentions to their clients (us) about it. The 2007 days are gone as you noted. The perspective of AILA lawyers isn't the same as ours. They have no real skin in this game. Most couldn't care less how long Indians are stuck in the backlog. In fact, I have not come across a more incompetent, inefficient or malfeasant bunch of layers than immigration lawyers. It may be partly because they deal with the most incompetent and malfeasant govt agency of all; partly because the victims of their incompetence and malfeasance are both docile (as would be immigrants) and powerless (as beneficiaries rather than sponsors) and are rarely able to stick around to be able to sue or otherwise complain. The sponsor companies/clients couldn't care less for the loss or harm to some cogs in their wheels. But I digress.. In fact, one could argue that continuing backlogs is good for business for the immigration lawyers. So, they probably not just look at the backlog dispassionately but rather gleefully. No wonder that can't stop gushing about Charlie.

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Originally Posted by Positive

:) Charlie has done little to nothing to use his position to help. What kind of friend does that. Not just that he refuses to use his powers to force USCIS' hand, he goes all in licking their boots. There is really no room left anymore to give him the benefit of doubt. A lot of Charlie's good reputation is built on a) him making everyone current in 2007 to force USCIS's hand; b) good PR from his chats with AILA (before he started these public chats), which the lawyers really valued and couldn't stop gushing over his good intentions to their clients (us) about it. The 2007 days are gone as you noted. The perspective of AILA lawyers isn't the same as ours. They have no real skin in this game. Most couldn't care less how long Indians are stuck in the backlog. In fact, I have not come across a more incompetent, inefficient or malfeasant bunch of layers than immigration lawyers. It may be partly because they deal with the most incompetent and malfeasant govt agency of all; partly because the victims of their incompetence and malfeasance are both docile (as would be immigrants) and powerless (as beneficiaries rather than sponsors) and are rarely able to stick around to be able to sue or otherwise complain. The sponsor companies/clients couldn't care less for the loss or harm to some cogs in their wheels. But I digress.. In fact, one could argue that continuing backlogs is good for business for the immigration lawyers. So, they probably not just look at the backlog dispassionately but rather gleefully. No wonder that can't stop gushing about Charlie.

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I have said this hundreds of times in last 11 years I am running this forum - that except for backlogged people - EB-IC backlog is a win-win-win-win for sponsors, lawyers, anti-immigrants, and USCIS!!

I will have to respectfully disagree with CO's characterization though. Could he do better? Perhaps. Is he a villain? Absolutely not.

Irrelevant to this beloved thread. But I just want to add that the rant on CO isnt nice to read or feels right. CO is doing what he can do in his limited power. If not CO, there can be another person who will have to do same calculations.
If you see past few years, utilization has been near 95-100% , so his calculations aren't really off at least in recent years, even when a terribly anti presidency was in.
It is easy to find and demonize 'others' like CO, or L1s, or H1bs, or students , but fact is that the immigration system need some overhaul and a lot of people are extremely talented in finding loopholes to exploit.

Coming to numbers:
CO didn't specify what is his expectation in wastage.
Collating the variables/unknowns he stated/implied in few statement,
1. Downgraded numbers are still not clear.
2. Pending legislation on blocking spillover ..this time is being considered (does it have more chance this year)
3. Actual usage in 2021

There might be other unstated factors too like pulling USCIS resources for Afgan related processing.

Considering all these, and I guess learning from this year, he stated that by Nov bulletin he will be in better state to adjust FD for 2022. And in Oct bulletin , at best EB2 FD may move forward.
Eb3 won't move to 2016 in any chance, however he also didn't imply for any retrogression. I am hoping that USCIs makes case for added human resources/contractors.

Thanks Q. Bur our company does an amendment and does not file a new I140 during the downgrade. So basically Eb2 is no longer active.
Plus the fact that with what CO says said, there's no clarity what so ever on what's in store. Such a mess.

Yeah, yesterday i was crunching some numbers - based on the stats available in USCIS. The priority dates that are there today, kind of match the visa numbers that were available for FY 2021. God knows why the new additions in FY 2022, do not change the dates at all - unless CO is purposefully waiting for the Ming appointment so he doesnt have to adjust later. I just hope thats what it is and November sees a change. It's just utterly painful.

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Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting

Irrelevant to this beloved thread. But I just want to add that the rant on CO isnt nice to read or feels right. CO is doing what he can do in his limited power. If not CO, there can be another person who will have to do same calculations.
If you see past few years, utilization has been near 95-100% , so his calculations aren't really off at least in recent years, even when a terribly anti presidency was in.
It is easy to find and demonize 'others' like CO, or L1s, or H1bs, or students , but fact is that the immigration system need some overhaul and a lot of people are extremely talented in finding loopholes to exploit.

Coming to numbers:
CO didn't specify what is his expectation in wastage.
Collating the variables/unknowns he stated/implied in few statement,
1. Downgraded numbers are still not clear.
2. Pending legislation on blocking spillover ..this time is being considered (does it have more chance this year)
3. Actual usage in 2021

There might be other unstated factors too like pulling USCIS resources for Afgan related processing.

Considering all these, and I guess learning from this year, he stated that by Nov bulletin he will be in better state to adjust FD for 2022. And in Oct bulletin , at best EB2 FD may move forward.
Eb3 won't move to 2016 in any chance, however he also didn't imply for any retrogression. I am hoping that USCIs makes case for added human resources/contractors.

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I *think* he said EB2 FAD may move forward. FD's likely not changing till later.

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Originally Posted by Immig7

Yeah, yesterday i was crunching some numbers - based on the stats available in USCIS. The priority dates that are there today, kind of match the visa numbers that were available for FY 2021. God knows why the new additions in FY 2022, do not change the dates at all - unless CO is purposefully waiting for the Ming appointment so he doesnt have to adjust later. I just hope thats what it is and November sees a change. It's just utterly painful.

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That's the sense I got, reasons for Oct FY22 dates not moving (except potentially EB2 FAD):
-Potential legislation
- Overwhelming number of applications still being processed (USCIS workload at capacity without new hiring)
- Clarity on the actual number of carryover demand from FY21 to FY22.
- Need to avoid retrogression at end of FY22.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

That's the sense I got, reasons for Oct FY22 dates not moving (except potentially EB2 FAD):
-Potential legislation
- Overwhelming number of applications still being processed (USCIS workload at capacity without new hiring)
- Clarity on the actual number of carryover demand from FY21 to FY22.
- Need to avoid retrogression at end of FY22.

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Why are we taking into account the potential legislation? Charlie cannot break the law to wait and watch for a potential legislation. I believe he thinks USCIS will be wasting close to 100K and based on the current demand at hand the next year spillover would align well so as to not move the dates.

He did talk about the waste that he was very concerned. However, that doesn't negate the fact that there will be atleast 260K new visas which would warrant some date movement. But I think as he said he will have better clarity in Nov. So he is perhaps buying more time, plus wants to prevent any retrogression should Ming's amendment come true. Thats my thought.

But one thing is true, he would have saved a lot of desperation if he would have just been open and clear about the same.

Another thing is each question was specifically talking about Oct bulletin. I was waiting for them to pick up a generic one , saying what's the projection for FY 2022. Perhaps his answer would have been a little different. He answered exactly to the question which was only about Oct bulletin. So perhaps a lesson that we can keep the question to FY instead of a specific month - waiting a few months is better than waiting a decade :(

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

at times yes.

Couldn't agree more! He should really think hard what's the point if he cant be of use.

That's going too far. Don't take this personally. He is just part of the system and could very well be a friend for all you know. At the very least he is trying to face people and answer some questions.

That's so profound - I am going to remember this.

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rather than animosity I think it is the learning they had dealing with Chinese immigration and how they basically overwhelmed them inside and outside. They abosulutely do not want to repeat with Indians/india although these 2 countries polar opposites

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Originally Posted by gammaray

huh? So what's your point? It was October last year when the spillover was factored in. It's August now.
The reasons the FD remains the same for October FY22 are various factors -- given the slug of demand last October they probably need to determine the actual (and not anticipated) carryover demand, the Meng amendment that CO referenced might be in play, and USCIS still trying to process applications from Oct. 2021. Opening the dates further will only overwhelm them further. Co is being conservative for the reasons listed to avoid retrogression as much as possible as he indicated.

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How does it matter if it is August. What dates the October VB carries is what matters. You disputed by statement on anticipated wastage based on the dates Charlie gave out. It has been the stated position of Charlie, DOS and USCIS that the filing dates represent where the final action dates are anticipated to be at the end of the fiscal year. Now wishy washy statements about 6-8 months, making advance accomodation for a POTENTIAL immigration law change etc. are just pathetic excuses for arriving at a predetermined outcome, wasting as many spillover visas as possible.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Why are we taking into account the potential legislation? Charlie cannot break the law to wait and watch for a potential legislation. I believe he thinks USCIS will be wasting close to 100K and based on the current demand at hand the next year spillover would align well so as to not move the dates.

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This! totally agree.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

What is amusing is the sense of entitlement and the need for degrading other human beings. The inefficiencies of the state department and USCIS are not the cause of decades of wait times. It may add weeks or months but not the years that people are disgruntled about. People need to look inward first, to their own community, on how the backlog was exacerbated with exploitation by their own community (IT companies, etc.) in addition to the archaic and inherently flawed laws of this country with respect to employment immigration.

And I'll repeat my feelings on the subject -- no country on earth has the volume of immigrants that this country sees and processes, and I am willing to bet in most other countries processing would be much worse at these volumes. That's not a justification, just reality.

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Sure, I do feel a sense of entitlement after working in this country for 15+ years and paying taxes. Taxation without representation is fundamentally unfair. I am not even complaining about country caps and what not, just what we are entitled to under the law by an agency funded by fees that we pay for that service. That alone and an year's notice takes away any reasonable excuse to not properly manage the work load. The plain fact is these would not be wasted if the the agency had the will to issue those visas. Charlie's empty lip service to us stake holders, month after month, justifies the scorn I have for him. The US takes in far fewer immigrants than many other countries, as a percentage of their population. You may feel obligated and grateful that they are taking you in I don't. I do feel entitled and in fact aggrieved and unfairly treated. Everyone is entitled to their opinions.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

I know a lot of medical RFE's have been issued in the last few weeks, even to folks who's dates are not current (but expected to in the near future) -- with a response required in 30 days (early September) rather than the usual 87 days. This seems like an attempt to maximize visa number allotment, though not sure how it will be implemented.

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I received a RFE with almost 3 months due date. Received on 4th August - expected response by 1st Nov.

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Originally Posted by Positive

Sure, I do feel a sense of entitlement after working in this country for 15+ years and paying taxes. Taxation without representation is fundamentally unfair. I am not even complaining about country caps and what not, just what we are entitled to under the law by an agency funded by fees that we pay for that service. That alone and an year's notice takes away any reasonable excuse to not properly manage the work load. The plain fact is these would not be wasted if the the agency had the will to issue those visas. Charlie's empty lip service to us stake holders, month after month, justifies the scorn I have for him. The US takes in far fewer immigrants than many other countries, as a percentage of their population. You may feel obligated and grateful that they are taking you in I don't. I do feel entitled and in fact aggrieved and unfairly treated. Everyone is entitled to their opinions.

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Indeed Positive. Everybody earns their way into US. There are no favors.

Despite all doom and gloom of yesteryears, these are some of the best times for backlogged folks. Don't let yourself fall prey to despair. Cheer up!

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Originally Posted by Positive

How does it matter if it is August. What dates the October VB carries is what matters. You disputed by statement on anticipated wastage based on the dates Charlie gave out. It has been the stated position of Charlie, DOS and USCIS that the filing dates represent where the final action dates are anticipated to be at the end of the fiscal year. Now wishy washy statements about 6-8 months, making advance accomodation for a POTENTIAL immigration law change etc. are just pathetic excuses for arriving at a predetermined outcome, wasting as many spillover visas as possible.

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Predetermined outcome? Perhaps you are in the wrong 'Q' forum-- there is another group that welcomes all kind of conspiracy theories. If you can't understand how an agency (especially a government one) or company functions and the logic of the fact that the pandemic reduced work capacity by 30-40 percent for most of the year and a near 70 percent increase in applications at the same time, then this is a moot discussion. Could they have seen it coming and planned better? Or hired more and trained staff (which would take 6+ months)? Sure. But as I insinuated companies and government agencies don't turn on and off like a switch, it takes time for changes to take place and that is only after there is a directive from the administration to start with. And if you knew anything about the previous administration and the current state of congress where it took months to even just confirm the USCIS director, you would perhaps understand.

I wasn't disputing the anticipated wasted, as I said logically that was always bound to happen -- Reduced work capacity + many-fold increase in work does not equal to more applications being processed. I was disputing the fact that moving the FD to March 2014, 2 months more than the original retrogressed Jan 2014 date was linked to the calculations of demand and visa availability for FY22, which by your reasoning, had to be already conducted in July/August of 2021. Which is plain false.

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Originally Posted by Positive

Sure, I do feel a sense of entitlement after working in this country for 15+ years and paying taxes. Taxation without representation is fundamentally unfair. I am not even complaining about country caps and what not, just what we are entitled to under the law by an agency funded by fees that we pay for that service. That alone and an year's notice takes away any reasonable excuse to not properly manage the work load. The plain fact is these would not be wasted if the the agency had the will to issue those visas. Charlie's empty lip service to us stake holders, month after month, justifies the scorn I have for him. The US takes in far fewer immigrants than many other countries, as a percentage of their population. You may feel obligated and grateful that they are taking you in I don't. I do feel entitled and in fact aggrieved and unfairly treated. Everyone is entitled to their opinions.

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Entitled by law? Please let us know where the law states that the application has to be processed in a certain time. It has to be processed, yes, and it will be. I have been in this country much longer than 15 years and paid more taxes -- but how is working and paying taxes make one entitled? Paying taxes is the law of every land, everyone does it, it's the price to pay to live in society to use the infrastructure and the comforts of the society you live in. It's not a favor you or anyone is doing to this country.

That's the issue, you should be complaining about country caps and trying to correct that wrong because that is the root cause of the issue. Not administrative delays. but as you say everyone is entitled to their opinion as misplaced as they may be.

I am not "obligated or grateful" for "anyone taking me in". It is my choice and decision to be here, and so is yours. If other countries are so much better at and treat everyone fairly then why live in an aggravated state for decades here? (rhetorical)

Using a per capita immigrant number for immigration processing time is just falsified logic. Can't compare million plus applications every year vs 1000s for a smaller country.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

I received a RFE with almost 3 months due date. Received on 4th August - expected response by 1st Nov.

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Interesting, mine (and a few folks I know) was 30 days, and specifically had language mentioning the Sept 30 deadline for FY21.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Why are we taking into account the potential legislation? Charlie cannot break the law to wait and watch for a potential legislation. I believe he thinks USCIS will be wasting close to 100K and based on the current demand at hand the next year spillover would align well so as to not move the dates.

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I am not sure what law he's breaking. It is his discretion to implement the date ranges when he wants to, based on his judgement and the data.

He "believes" 100K will be wasted? If he can take into account *potential* wastage (and it's potential till he gets the actual numbers in Oct--- which is my entire point) to set future dates, why can't he take into account potential legislation (especially if he is privy to inside information that the legislation is a real possibility)? His end goal is balancing maximizing utilization of available visa's and also prevent any visa retrogression which would look extremely bad and burn a lot of people.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

you should be complaining about country caps and trying to correct that wrong because that is the root cause of the issue. Not administrative delays.

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Country caps is the root of evil. But administrative delays and discrimination has significantly hurt EB-IC community. Very significantly.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Country caps is the root of evil. But administrative delays and discrimination has significantly hurt EB-IC community. Very significantly.

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Discrimination is subjective and difficult to factor into anything, and does extend to all walks of life. Walking into a club is different for a person of color vs a white person, for example.

But yes I can see how admin delays could affect EB1's (and ROW for that matter) since they are current and even a few weeks or months is substantial for them ( But again the admin delays can be linked to resource management with is tied directly to the budget and will of the administration/Congress) . Most people here and in the backlog are not EB1's and my point was more from a decade or more of wait time that people have experienced and are frustrated by, and that is only because of the flawed law and the inability and lack of will of Congress to change it or better the system.