http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html
u guys are fast,
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http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html
u guys are fast,
Thanks Q, also to my good friend Spectator he was with me always on this :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q if we look at the data you would notice that roughly 1/3rd to 1/5th of the applications in terms of receipts are awaiting customer action, the typical timeline to answer an RFE is just a month so every month these will be different applications. The real fact is that RFE's are being issued left right and center, mostly the RFE is on Ability to pay and its hard for consulting or even small companies to survive these. They started to advise people to apply in EB3 since for this the offered salary would be less and RFE would be less likely. In believe that 50% RFE's are going to be deadly especially if it is EB2. So assuming a 20% denial rate IMHO seems to be fair and completions definitely includes denials. Traditionally also it’s the I140 that is more likely to de denied for various reasons that the labor. Unfortunately people don't post denials on Trackitt they would just leave the case as pending and maybe file again.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
In FY 2010, ROW PERM were ~36K. Say, Eb2 were 50%, then 18K, multiply by 2.25 for I-485s, we get 40.5, of these 10K were used. So ~30.5K remaining + the new demand from FY 2011. It looks an unlikely scenario for fall across for EB2 this year. May be I am way off here. I hope so.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
See my post #482.
I have now posted most of the interesting statistics.
I have calculated them quite quickly and will double check them.
My first download had screwed up EB5 and Grand Total pages.
The figure for EB5 was 1,885 as expected. The Grand Total was 150,262.
I have updated the figures in post #482
I posted this a week ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Am I allowed to say I am feeling quite pleased with myself!
The unknown factor was M & P contribution in EB2 - so a pretty good guess.
Spec
You have earned your stripes !! Great job!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was lucky in that Trackitt almost exactly predicted the EB2-ROW (excluding M & P) with the ratio I was using.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Something to consider...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
EB2 may not be 50% of all ROW PERMs:)
About 7.5k EB2 application are pending at USCIS as of 10-01-2010 out of which 6.5k have PD from FY 2010:rolleyes:
May be DOS used your calculations from last week and came up with the numbers? :)
Jokes apart, now that your 2010 analysis came true, I'm really worried about 2011. Your 2011 predictions are very very conservative, I thought. not anymore :(
Cheers!
China EB3 quota is only 2,503 per year and USCIS gave out 3,676? Great!:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Actually the quota was 3,016-300 = 2,716 but I know what you are saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I think we should be more charitable than that. EB3-C lost a large number of visa in FY2008 and FY2009, so this kind of evens it out. EB3-I loss of 500 visas in FY2009 was evened out by the extra 500 they received in FY2008. Things have away of evening out over the long run, even if it doesn't feel like it.
What about EB3-M with a notional 7% limit of 3,016 and actual visas approvals of 7,740? Or the Philippines with 3,651? It might be legal, but that sticks in the craw more with me. No offence intended to EB3-M or EB3-P people.
Q/Spec/Teddy,
Is there any change in your predictions for 2011 after looking at the visa statistics that were just posted? First time poster here. Been following you at IV and Trackitt for quite some time. I have to say, you guys are doing a wonderful job with the analysis. Gives us lemmings a ray of hope. Cheers!
Thank you for the kind words but don't get too worried yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Whilst EB2-ROW doesn't look great at present, that can change.
EB1 is another whole ball game. It IS running very low at the moment according to Trackitt figures.
Whilst I don't believe the real numbers will be quite as low as this predicts, there is still some wiggle room there. Unfortunately, there is no other source of information.
The loss of the visa numbers from FB is going to hurt in FY2011. Remember, all things being equal, 26.5k SOFAD in FY2010 is only about 20k in FY2011. So anything above that is actually a better result.
Thanks Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Another observation is South Korea's consumption
EB1- 2,001
EB2- 4,793
May be we need to consider how many PERM's approved for south Korea in FY 2010 for 2011 projections...
Good thought veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
That may be because of FB+EB combined limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
welcome angryclubs. unforunately more than likely the predictions will become conservative ... mostly because of EB1. While corporate america is firing workers .. they are on a binge spree of hiring multinational managers and PHDs!! Besides the ROW situation doesn't give a whole lot comfort. EB5 is the new hope ... but as economy starts firing on all cylinders that too may change. Sorry to be pessimist here. But net net ... EB2I likely should move end of 06 or early 07 as early predictedQuote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
I have long been lazy of updating my models. I guess I have run out of all of my excuses. Will do over weekend.
Some bonus statistics!
China used 12.32% of available visas in EB1-EB3.
India used 21.65% of available visas in EB1-EB3.
Overall China used 17,792 visas in all EB categories, which was 11.84% of all EB visas approved. China used 32,343 visas for EB & FB combined, which was 8.58% of immigration visas approved in EB & FB that were subject to numerical limits.
Overall, India used 30,624 visas in all EB categories, which was 20.38% of all EB visas approved. India used 46,646 visas for EB & FB combined, which was 12.38% of immigration visas approved in EB & FB that were subject to numerical limits.
You have been studying hard haven't you! LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
..... and 3,356 in EB.
South Korea consumed 11,889 visas in EB categories, which is 7.9% of the total. This has happened for many years.
It can happen because of SK low usage of FB visas - this year it was 1,444. They only consumed 14,481 in total in EB and FB, against a 7% limit of 26,366 set for FY2010.
It is a source of irritation to ROW applicants.
To answer your question, they are already part of the ROW PERM figures, so they already form part of the projections. If they take more visas, it is from other ROW in EB3, much as Mexico and Philippines do.
In EB2, they took roughly the same amount in FY2009 and the same is the case for EB1.
If the numbers had jumped considerably, I agree it could have been a source of concern for FY2011. Nonetheless, when I have some time, I will look to see if the South Korea PERM numbers look significantly different in FY2010.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It is (well they don't exceed EB 7% limit, because FB for Mexico and Philippines is always fully allocated), which is why I said "it might be legal but ....".
It hurts not only EB3-ROW who lose 4k of their notional allocation, but it hurts EB3-I as well. It delays the time when EB3-ROW can become Current and provide Fall Across to EB3-I.
I suspect that EB3-I will get Fall Across from EB3-ROW before it ever sees any Fall Down from EB2-C & I, so it is important to them.
And double yay! I'm a Senior Member.
Absolutely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looks like 100 posts is the required milestone!! Congratulations!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Speck,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was checking FY 2010 PERM data which shows 4,610 approved PERM for South Korea, may reflect to similar demand this year!
I am not sure if we can use 2010 PERM Data breakdown to correlate i140 data from USCIS dash board, only difference would be EB1 i140's
FY 2010
Total 81,412
Denied/Withdrawn11,175
Certified 70,237 Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Blank
INDIA 28,930 7,537 12,694 4,488 3,723 488
CHINA 4,052 1,444 1,603 589 312 104
MEX 3,306 1,197 849 678 509 73
PHIL 3,305 1,543 850 405 290 217
ROW 30,644 11,665 10,601 4,641 3,087 650
Total(each level) 23,386 26,597 10,801 7,921 1,532
Another Observation from USCIS dash boardQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Between Oct -2009 and Nov- 2010
Total I140 Receipts - 92, 561
Completions - 84,629
Pending (as of Nov-10) - 28,176
Is it safe to assume all 41,026 EB1 approvals(FY 2010) are from the 74k I140 completions between Oct 09 -Sep 10 ? :confused:
Hello, Q, Teddy, Spectator and others. Thank you for the diligent analysis.
My priority date is 1/29/2007-EB2, what are the chances that my date will be current this year.
Thank you,
MorningSun.
MS, welcome to forum. Pls spend some time reading the thread. You will get your answers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MorningSun
Consular Processing Statistics FY2010
EB1
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 6,741 ---- 75 -- 4.08% -- 3.50%
India ------- 6,741 --- 105 -- 1.56% -- 1.24%
Mexico ------ 1,835 ---- 44 -- 2.40% -- 3.48%
Philippines --- 407 ---- 30 -- 7.37% -- 5.92%
ROW -------- 25,302 - 1,517 -- 6.00% -- 4.73%
Total ------ 41,026 - 1,971 -- 4.80% -- 3.72%
EB2
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 6,505 ---- 70 -- 1.08% -- 1.18%
India ------ 19,961 --- 102 -- 0.51% -- 0.74%
Mexico -------- 817 ---- 22 -- 2.69% -- 2.06%
Philippines - 2,162 --- 137 -- 6.34% -- 6.59%
ROW -------- 24,427 - 1,167 -- 4.78% -- 3.11%
Total ------ 53,872 - 1,498 -- 2.78% -- 2.76%
EB3
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 3,676 - 2,064 - 56.15% -- 27.02%
India ------- 3,036 --- 503 - 16.57% -- 13.59%
Mexico ------ 7,740 --- 169 -- 2.18% --- 5.43%
Philippines - 3,651 --- 759 - 20.79% -- 33.82%
ROW -------- 24,328 - 2,846 - 11.70% -- 13.84%
Total ------ 42,431 - 6,341 - 14.94% -- 16.00%
Commentary
EB1
The % is fairly unchanged from FY2009.
EB2
The overall CP rate for EB2 has remained unchanged at around 3%.
However, when looking at the China/India group within EB2, the CP rate is only around 1%, also unchanged from FY2009.
EB3
This Category is always a reminder of why not to use an average % CP route.
Whilst the average CP for EB3 is nearly 15%, much the same as FY2009, there are wide variations by Country - from 2.18% for Mexico to a fairly astonishing 56.15% for China.
EB3 China is worth talking further about. The CP rate has leapt from 27.02% in FY2009 to 56.15%, more than doubling.
This is speculation, but it would fit the facts.
The VO, due to the Chinese EB3 Class Action Lawsuit, would have been acutely aware not to waste EB3-C visas again.
Figures are available up until August 2010 for Visa allocations and June 2010 for Visa returns. The difference represents Visas Used.
The Visa Office allocated 20.7% of the available visas for EB3-C in Q1 2010 but eventual returns of these visas at a later date were 53.7%.
Visa allocations to EB3-C were a little lower in Q2 and the VO had to be quite aggressive in Q3 to catch up, as the return rate was quite high.
To the end of Q3 2,487 visas had actually been used by EB3-C and the return rate was averaging 32.4%, although lowering slightly in each quarter.
For the final quarter, returns must have been very low (dropping to perhaps 10% for the quarter) or the VO allocated an awful lot of visas in September 2010.
I favour the former explanation because it makes more sense and because it would have been difficult for the Consulates to organize that many interviews and complete them within September.
This explains both why EB3-C exceeded their 7% limit by so far and why the Consular Processing % rose so much, since Visa returns are only a function of the Consular process.
Therefore, I believe that the figure of over 50% CP is more a statistical blip, rather than an ongoing trend. I would expect it to return to nearer 30% again in the future.
MS, As per initial calculations by Q, you would have had a almost 100% chance of becoming current between July-Sep 2011. However the newly published visa statistics pour cold water on the estimates and your chances of being current this year have fallen dramatically. I would think it stands at 50-50 for 2011 with a 100% shot in 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by MorningSun
Experts, please correct if you think I got it wrong.
With the 6.5K spillover from FB visas non-existent for FY2011 + 4,000 porting cases + EB2 I-140 spike + greater # of EB-2 China in 2006, would be safe to assume that the total # of EB-2 India for 2011 would be around 10,000? This would be 50% of the 20,000 received in FY2010.Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
If the answer is Yes to above, EB-2 India should not cross Oct-2006, correct?
Friends... we created this dedicated website for our blog.
WELCOME HERE!! AND I LOOK FORWARD TO ENGAGE IN A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION THAT WILL HELP ALL OF OUR VISITORS!!
Thanks Q for all the effort. This blog is so informative and I hope/wish that you succeed in your mission for which you started this.
Thanks TBoy :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by TexDBoy
Q,
Congratulations on moving the forum so quickly.
Perhaps everyone who visits can do their bit to advertise the new location to people who might be interested.
Congratulations Q, great to see qesehmk.org. Time for some great predictions and calculations now.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Spec/Teddy
Thanks! The last time I have done any coding was in 2002. But with this whole cloud stuff .... things are so incredibly easy that I got this domain this morning. The site was up in a couple of hours with some issues. Went out for lunch ... came back and then solved those issues and cleaned up old website. I am in love with this whole cloud and commoditization basic services.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Veni Thanks.
Now lets get back to business. Will update the header with latest 485 inventory and everything that other gurus have been predicting by late evening tonight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Congrats on the new site Q.
The Annual Report is out at
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...leV-PartII.pdf
And all staticstics at
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html
Thanks
S
Thanks Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I was looking at I-140 trending from USCIS dash board, here is the summary
FY 2009
Total Receipts - Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - 46,714
Dec 08 -- Sept 09 - Total Completions - 132,611
Total Pending as of Sept 09 - 14,504
Awaiting Customer action as of Sept -09 - 2,634
FY 2010
Total Receipts - Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - 77,280
Oct 09 -- Sept 10 - Total Completions - 73,746
Total Pending as of Nov 10 - 28,176
Awaiting Customer action as of Nov -10 - 1,510
Even-though I-140 receipts for FY 2010 increased by 70% compared 2009 but, the Completions(approvals) are only half!
Even if we take the Net(Completions+Pending+Awaiting Action) for each FY
FY 2009 = 132,611+14,504+2,634 = 149,749 (Dec 08 --Sept 09)
FY 2010 = 73,746+28,176+1,510 = 103,432 (Oct 09 -- Nov 10)
================================================== ====
Difference = 46,317 This is Net Reduction
================================================== ===
How do you relate this for FY 2011 SOFAD?
73K 140 translates to 160K plus 485. Of which even if 80K is EB1 and EB2-ROW, tehn you won't find any SOFAD.
Secondly - Even though 140 approvals reduced from 2009-2010, its teh composition of those approvals that could've made teh difference.
The 2009 approvals may have consisted at least part of Jul 07 fiasco applications (which were all kinds of EB). Whereas 2010 approvals were probably EB1 and EB2-ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Considering that case, Is it safe to assume all 41,026( or at-least 35k) EB1 approvals(FY 2010) are from the 74k I140 completions between Oct 09 -Sep 10?
Then we are only talking about 40K I140 for EB2-EB3. which equates to 84K i485. Assume 50% EB2, and we know that there are about 17.5K EB2 ROW (11K approved in FY2011 & 6.5K pending as of 10/10), this translates to less-than 15% of total i140 approvals are EB2 ROW?:confused:
Veni
Everything looks good to me. Except you need to make the same 2.2 assumption on your base exclusion of EB1 approvals. In other words you can only subtract 41K/2.2 from the 2010 I-140.
p.s. - Majority of EB1 approved in a year always come from the same year. Almost 90% plus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Got it! Thanks Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That translates to my estimated EB2 ROW i485(incl. M&P) demand as 1k per month(plus pending)! for FY 2011.