Thanks a lot Q. Hope your words come true! I think we have to wait till June/July for this movement to materialize.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Regards
Amul
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Thanks a lot Q. Hope your words come true! I think we have to wait till June/July for this movement to materialize.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Regards
Amul
Thanks for detailed reply Spec! helps to put things in perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looks like EB2I is not going to receive many spill overs this year. How will next FY for EB2 ROW? Because EB3 ROW is almost current, will demand in EB2 ROW go down drastically and help EB2I? I hope between Oct 2015 and Dec 2015, EB2I will move into 2010s for inventory build.
The Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2015 document has been updated today.
It now shows the estimated EB Annual Limit as 144,730 (in line with expectations).
EB1 ---- 41,394
EB2 ---- 41,393
EB3 ---- 41.393
EB4 ---- 10,275
EB5 ---- 10,275
Total - 144,730
The 7% limit within EB becomes 10,131 for all Countries other than China, where it is 9,131 because of the provisions in the Chinese Student Protection Act (700 less in EB5 and 300 less in EB3).
Someone on trackitt EB2I -PD dec09 reported RFE notice. Don't know how it is possible.S/he did not receive medical in 2014. Let's wait and see bulletine on Monday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The May VB is out.
EB2-I - 15APR08
EB2-C - 01JUN12
EB5-C - 01MAY13
EB3-ROW/M - 01JAN15
EB3-P - 01JUL07
EB3-I - 15JAN04
Quote:
D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA-mainland born
EMPLOYMENT FIFTH PREFERENCE CATEGORY
Heavy applicant demand has required the implementation of an Employment Fifth preference cut-off date to hold number use within the maximum level of numbers which may be made available for use by such applicants during FY-2015. No specific prediction regarding movement of this date is possible at present. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers may become available. An increase in visa demand by applicants with relatively early priority dates COULD make necessary a retrogression of this cut-off date prior to the end of the fiscal year; retrogression is NOT being predicted but it cannot be ruled out. It is extremely likely that this category will remain subject to a cut-off date indefinitely.
Quote:
E. PHILIPPINES VISA AVAILABILITY
Employment Third preference:
This cut-off date had also been advanced very rapidly in an effort to generate sufficient demand to fully utilize all available numbers. The current rate of increase in demand has required the retrogression of this cut-off date for the month of May, in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit for this preference category.
I would say that such severe retrogression of EB3-Philippines (7 years +) means they have pretty much reached the number of visas CO is prepared to allocate this FY.
That is mirrored by approvals in Trackitt (although it is such a low number as to be insignificant).
Spec ... this means EB3P NVC demand has finally caught up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
But I believe this shouldn't affect EB3I's prospects this year which look pretty good to me.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree.
EB3-P use is limited by reaching the overall 7% limit within EB (since they use all 7% in FB) of around 10,131.
Given likely use in other EB Categories, that shouldn't be more than about 6.5k at most within EB3. Use by EB2-P will be the biggest determinator of the actual number.
Which month do you guys think there will be spill across for EB3I ?
My prediction for May was off by about 15 days. June bulletin guesstimate: November 1, 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
Also, I think we need a prediction for when they will release the bulletin. My guess is that it should be out by May 12, Tuesday.
Hmm... VBs are following the established pattern. May is probably the last month they can continue with the holding pattern. They will have to break the pattern next month.
1. EB3ROW has no place to go except "Current" now. EB3I folks will need to be issued Medical/EVL RFEs pretty soon - time is running out. This pretending by USCIS that nothing is going on in EB3 and EB3I can just continue with 1-2 week movement each month is getting a little ridiculous.
2. EB3P catchup that we have been expecting for some time has finally happened. I personally thought that much of the EB3P, especially nursing, demand has been lost due to the delay. But does not seem like - a good part seems to have survived to fill up the quota for this FY.
3. EB2C moved 14 months. Seems a little excessive. Guess inventory building is in full swing here.
4. EB2I moved 7.5 months. Seems still a bit away from the time period where they will find significant demand. After 8 months last bulletin, I guess 7 months for next bulletin (15-NOV-08 for June), then 6.5 months after that (01-JUN-08 for July) - after that guess depends on spillover.
So well - nothing much in this VB. Hope next one is more note-worthy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think that you mean 01-May-09, right? Isn't that (or close) where we were last year? That is terrible! Is it possible that the spillover could give eb2-I at least six months net movement to 01-Nov-2009 in August? Otherwise, it is just a pendulum. And any guesses what follows August, retrogression -- despite this year's steady movement? Sorry, for asking so many questions.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Isn't same thing happened in 2013 for EB3-I? Date moved from Jan 2003 to Sep 22. It was more than 8 months movement. Did they issue EVL/RFEs 2-3 months earlier than the bulletin?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
yes eb3i jumped from 22jan03 to 22sept03 in sept2013 bulletin, i.e 8 months movement in sept'13 bulletin; and the mass rfe's were issued in june/july'13.Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
Apr i485 inventory will throw some light on future movement, while july i485 inventory will seal the year.
I did mistype. 6.5 months would be 01-May-09 for July. We will still have Aug and Sep to catch any spillover. Upto 01-Nov-09 is a ready-set demand with RFEs filed already. Although many filed RFEs will start expiring July onwards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth
Ok, thanks. But, let me re-phrase my question. If EB2-I can go to 01-May-09 on its own, with no spillover, how far do you think it can go with whatever spillover is expected so far? How likely is it that it could reach 01-Nov-2009 by September?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
First - it will not reach 01-May-09 on its own considering the porting volume and the cases before 01-May-09 that did not get approved last time around. I personally do think that it will reach at least 01-Nov-09 with whatever piddly spillover we receive this year. The density between May and Nov 2009 is really low so it is not going to take too much spillover for that jump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth
As per Permchecker, here are the stats. Permchecker pulls stats directly from DOL site.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
-------------- FY14 H1 - FY15 H1 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,829 --- 2,596 ---- 142%
India --------- 14,522 -- 17373 ---- 120%
Mexico ----------- 602 ----- 558 ---- 92%
Philippines ------ 684 ----- 540 ----- 79%
ROW ------------ 8,535 -- 8,941 ---- 104%
ALL ----------- 26,172 -- 30,008 ---- 115%
I think the movement will be much lesser than what you mentioned. We already have used approx 2500 of the current FY EB2I quota. So may be ~500 remaining. No spillover from EB4/EB5. EB1 might give ~500. So that is total of ~1000 visas. EB2ROW is the key and I would assume that EB2ROW would yield anywhere between 3000 to 8000. That would mean that EB2I still has another 4000 to 9000 GCs to allot.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Looking at the inventory, it is evident that 4000 would help cover demand until Feb 2009 and 9000 would cover it until Aug 2009. I think anything beyond Aug 2009 is a being insanely optimistic. Important to note that the discussion is about considering the possibility of getting GCs and not about just getting current.
redsox,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Permchecker has not updated their figures for when the OFLC system was down for extended periods, so it is not capturing all the PERM Certifications.
Permchecker has no data for the period February 12 2015 to March 4 2015 inclusive and only shows 20 cases for March 5 (when there were 365). It is also missing the data for March 25 2015 to March 30 2015 inclusive.
As a result, you are missing about 6.4k certifications.
In my post, I said it was "my best stab".
My figures include those cases missing in Permchecker using a couple of cheats and an awful lot of hard work.
The period Feb 12 to Feb 28 was prorated by Country based on the % already seen in the previous period.
For the period Mar 1 to Mar 5, I went through all 1.3k ETA 9089 to extract the Country information.
For the period Mar 25 to Mar 30, most of the certifications were for CTS. I assigned all those to India. Analyzing the other CTS certifications (now nearly 5k in total) suggests that will be 98-99% accurate. I looked at the individual ETA9089 for all non-CTS cases over that period.
I can tell you - it took a very long time and was extremely boring.
I also checked the numbers against the original OFLC source. I had to add and delete a few cases since the OFLC has changed slightly since the figures were first made available. Dolstats has not done this, so the Q2 figures will vary slightly from their numbers.
Spec- thanks again for all the effort and pointers.
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Thanks.
I don't think I would do it again. I'd just wait for the Quarterly Disclosure Data, even though that shows Nationality rather than Country of Birth.
It's been a while I asked anything on this forum. From all the discussions that's been going on looks like my fate is sealed for the next 2 years. I am on EB3 with priority date of Dec 2006 and my husband is on EB2 with priority date of may 3 2010. I curse the day his lawyer messed up with his oct 2007 labor filing but this is fate I guess! My question is are there any chances for inventory build this year or next? I wouldn't care much for getting the card at this point. Experts can you throw some light. I going crazy over the past few days and don't see any positive momentum on the executive actions as well!
I saw this some time ago and meant to make a comment, but it slipped my mind. I'm sure many of you are already aware of it.
In the FY 2016 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUDGET IN BRIEF (page 27) DOL asked for the following funding for the Foreign Labor Certification programs:
The reported backlog at the end of Q1 FY2015 was 64.8k.Quote:
For FY 2016, the Department requests $61,589,000 and 189 FTE for Federal Administration.
These resources will support the operation, management, and oversight of the Foreign Labor Certification programs. The FY 2016 request includes a one-time request for funding of $13,000,000 to support 17 Term FTE to reduce the escalating backlog of Permanent Labor Certification Program (PERM) cases. With these resources, OFLC projects that 96,450 PERM applications will be processed – a 36 percent increase from FY 2014 and over 16,000 more applications than are expected to be received in FY 2016.
I thought it noteworthy, since backlog reduction efforts generally result in higher ROW certifications than normal, which could result in increased EB2 demand at a future date.
That aside, it would be great news for those people who have a PERM stuck in the backlog.
Of course, it is just a request at this stage and it may not be approved.
In recent years, the backlog reached 66.7k in FY2009 before the last reduction effort and fell as low as 20k for FY2011/FY2012, before increasing to 55-60k in FY2014.
Q2 FY2015 PERM Statistics Released
They can be found here.
PERM Received - 18,992 (27% increase on Q2 FY2014)
PERM Certified -- 20,189
PERM Denied ----- 1,333
PERM Withdrawn - 1,092
PERM Processed - 22,616
Backlog as March 31, 2015 - 61,574
Analyst Review - 59%
Audit Review - 31%
Appeal - 9%
Sponsorship/BE - 1%
Thank you Spec.
From this Perm data, it appear that the Visa Number race will be between India and China from now on, ROWs accounting for less than 30%
The 27% increase appear to be normal since Q2 2014 was very low. I was expecting Perm applications to increase way more than that as Economy is recovering well, but looks like this still ain't happening
I am posting here but moderators, feel free to move it, First off, I would like to appreciate all the time and efforts from the senior members of the forum for keeping tab with all the stats and calculations to give us folks a ray of hope. I have been a silent follower of the forum for quite a while now. Thank you qesehmk, spec, imdeng and others for this exceptionally informative forum.
I am in a peculiar situation and calling for opinions from the experts. I filed for my second EAD/AP renewal in Jan 2015, received by TSC on 01/12 and my application was approved on 03/16. However, it has been sitting on the approved status ever since and there is no CPO update or card in the mail yet and it's been a month since approval. I received the approval notice on 03/26. Has anyone ever experienced this kind of a scenario? USCIS keeps finding newer ways to surprise us. Well anyway, I raised an e-request last week (and was politely asked to not expect a reply from USCIS before 04/29 :-)) and I'm also in the process of reaching out to the senator. My EAD is due to expire in the first week of May and I'm starting to lose hope that I would receive the new card before the old one dies. Do you guys know if there is anything more I can do from my end to address the problem?
lifescrewsevery1
Welcome to forum Life! First - you are good to go. Don't worry a bit. The card will come in time. Just follow up with USCIS ... call them up etc. No need for senator intervention. Did you ask USCIS (on phone call) what's the status -- if they sent it to the right address etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by lifescrewsevery1
You have to be a bit careful just looking at the % values.Quote:
Originally Posted by migo79
The 2.9k CTS approvals (almost all for India) at the end of March have a distorting effect on the figures.
If they are removed, the % split has remained fairly constant.
The same may well be true of Q3 eventually, since there have been another 2.1k CTS approvals to date.
Thank you Q. I tried calling USCIS early this week but couldn't get through to L2 officer and the L1 was not interested in raising a service request because it hasn't been 1 month since approval (was 2 days short). I called again today and was able to go through to L2 using Address Verification as the excuse. I am in line and scheduled a call back with them. Hopefully, should receive a call soon. I did send the request for senator intervention in snailmail. I hope it doesn't hurt.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EAD AP is your thing (i.e. you are the petitioner). So you following up with USCIS absolutely should never hurt. Good luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by lifescrewsevery1
Thank you Q. I did call USCIS today AM and scheduled for a call back. I just received a call from the L2 officer and she confirmed that the card has not been produced yet (whoever can guess why?) but asked me to expect an update by 04/22/2015, so hoping for the best. I did send in the request for senator intervention via snailmail and hope it's not going to hurt even if they intervene.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, Spec and other gurus,
Is there a way to find how much of these PERM approvals belong to EB2 or EB3? Historically, is there some kind of ratio for EB2:EB3?
gcpursuit,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Not directly from the PERM.
There is some analysis of the PWD that suggests it is up around at least 70:30 EB2:EB3 (or even higher). See Here.
The last usable data was from FY2013 - since then, the minimum months experience required field has not been populated correctly.
A more rough and ready calculation might be to use the figures from the PERM Statistics just released.
That shows that:
An Advanced Degree (PhD, Masters) is the minimum requirement for 52% of Certifications.
A Bachelors is the minimum requirement for 41% of Certifications.
Other (JD, MD etc) is the minimum requirement for 4% of Certifications.
The rest have a minimum requirement less than a Bachelor's.
If you say that half the Bachelor's cases also require at least 5 years experience (conservative compared to the PWD data) then EB2 could be as high as 52+20+4 = 76%
A relatively high figure might be consistent with the rapid progress for EB3 and the relatively low number of new cases seen in later years.
Typically, I use 65-70% for China, India and ROW and different (I can't remember off hand what they are) splits for Mexico and Philippines which is biased a little more towards EB3.
Also, bear in mind that PERM does not capture all cases. NIW and Schedule A do not require a PERM certification.
No simple answer I'm afraid.
It's possible over time that ROW will move to a split less biased towards EB2, if EB3 remains fairly near Current. But really, there is not much advantage to applying under EB3 if the beneficiary is suitably qualified and the job requirements do require Education/Experience that qualifies for EB2.
Spec - I think 70:30 EB2:EB3 split could be even worse now. I wouldnt be surprised if it is more like 80:20.
Now practically EB3 is a vanishing category. I think it would be a good idea for USCIS to rethink EB2 criteria. Otherwise why keep two separate categories if everybody is going to file in a supposedly tougher category?
Thanks Spec and Q.
80:20 was what I was guessing given EB3 retrogression. no numbers to back it up or anything. Makes the future of EB2I even more bleak. :(
From what I read long back, the minimum requirement for EB2 to be specified is still Master's degree whereas the alternative education can specify BS+5. Is that not correct? If it is, do they consider the alternative education field when they provide the education % in the PERM data?
gcpursuit,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
If your asking does the 52% Advanced Degree % in the PERM statistics represent the sum of applicants with PhD, Masters and Bachelors +5 years progressive experience into a pseudo grouping called Advanced Degree, then I would say it does not. Advanced Degree usually means the attainment of a qualification beyond that of a graduate.
USCIS defines the requirements for EB2 as:
A primary requirement of Bachelors + 5 years progressive experience in the field satisfies the requirements to file under EB2 - it doesn't need to be the alternative requirement.Quote:
The job you apply for must require an advanced degree and you must possess such a degree or its equivalent (a baccalaureate degree plus 5 years progressive work experience in the field).
The historic PWD data suggested that for FY2013, Advanced Degrees were 50% (vs 52% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet), Bachelors were 40% (vs 41% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet) and Other were 4% (vs 4% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet). The small rise since then seems quite possible. The PWD data suggested that more than half the cases (63%) requiring a Bachelors also required at least 5 years experience.
There is no way IMHO that only 52% of PERM certified qualify for an I-140 submission under EB2. Both the historic PWD data (which split Masters or Bachelors +5 out) and the numbers of EB2/EB3 approvals seen do not support that.
You may have a different opinion, or I have completely misunderstood the question.
From what I have read long back ( it was too long ago.. so i am not sure if that's still true ), in the PERM application we were supposed to specify Masters as minimum requirement to qualify for EB2. If the PERM is being applied for a person who doesn't have masters, BS+5 should be specified as the alternative requirement but masters should still be the minimum requirement. I may be totally wrong in my understanding. Is that statement valid?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator