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YTel, that's what most of us think. However what I personally get baffled at - for that logic to work - the total porting prior to the current EB2I date should be 233 or more.
Which I find somewhat hard to believe. But I could be wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I'm not sure you can necessarily say that and I don't entirely understand where your monthly breakdown is coming from.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
If I were analysing the figures, I would do it this way.
The Demand Data for a particular month is based on figures as at the beginning of the previous month. i.e The November DD was as at October 9, 2012 (roughly the beginning of the FY) and the February DD was as at Jan. 8, 2013 Roughly the end of Q1).
The overall change for EB3-I over that period is 47,125 minus 45,100 = 2,025.
But, reductions in the period before 2003 are likely EB3 approvals and reductions in periods after 2004 cannot be EB2 approvals this year, since the dates have never been Current.
Overall change ------ 2,025
Change pre 2003 ------ (750) - This is what we would expect
Change post 2004 ----- (475)
Change 2003-2004 ----- (800)
The monthly breakdown would be
October --- (325)
November -- (425)
December -- ( 50)
Total ----- (800)
That is not consistent with the pattern of Trackitt approvals, which shows a high number of approvals in October, followed by lower approvals in November and December. That would be an expected pattern after a long period of visas being Unavailable. It is possible there were a large numbers of approvals in the period October 1-8, which would not be captured in the figures.
The above can only say that perhaps there may have been 800 approvals.
The Demand Data movement only shows NET movement. A reduction of 100 can equally be 100 cases approved or equally 250 cases approved and 150 additions. There is no way to tell which. Equally reductions can be due to denials and withdrawals, as well as approvals.
I looked at the DD for November that was released in Oct. And I am looking at numbers only before 2005. So in Oct in the DD EB3 before 2005 was 25650. In november for December DD it was 25000. So thats a reduction of 650. Now out of that 250 will be EB3 approvals - the monthly qouta - and the rest of the reductions would be due to EB2 approvals and removal from EB3. So that is 400. Now the current DD has the number before 2005 for EB3 to be 24100. So thats a further reduction of about 900. Out of that 500 would be EB3 approvals the rest 400 would be EB2. So 200 for Nov and 200 in december. So according to this data it is - 400, 200 and 200. It must be definately more than this but not by a lot I guess. Its would be interesting to see the DDs coming up next to gauge the trend. But if this stays then dates will moveQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
also bear in mind we are only looking at reductions in EB3 cases. So there are no net new cases here. The reduction directly correlates with reductions in EB2.
Check this out
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
shows some interesting data. My interpretation is that these are field offices that no longer receive any 485 receipts for EB based cases. However at times service centers do send cases back to field offices for whatever reasons - or field offices have legacy inventory (probably EB3 and some EB2). That's why the approval data at that level is so low.
Anyway .. but a big question on all of our mind was how big is the inventory at field offices. This pretty much puts that question to bed. The answer is - NOT more than 3K.
For those interested. I have updated the DOS Demand Data thread to include all Demand Data ever published to February 2013.
Since I can't upload pdf files directly, they are contained in the zip files attached.
Thanks for doing that. Based on the the difference in the Demand for EB3 from October 9th onwards to Jan 10 it looks like EB2 I approvals wereQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Oct - > 400
Nov - > 300
Dec-> 100
Lets see if the trend continues lower. Trackitt approvals are trending lower
Spec, Can you please give the link to the page where you had calculated and projected when later priority dates(2009 and after) would be current (providing different spillover numbers) ?
Thanks in advance.
~ Arjun
Pundit Arjun,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun
Those were calculated back in FY2012 and are not relevant anymore.
Thanks Spec. Eagerly looking forward for the new ones, whenever it is ready :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?
It may or may not be so.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Firstly, the figure was 25,075 not 25,000 in the December Demand Data.
Secondly, you make a quite dangerous assumption that EB3-I numbers are static. The evidence is that is not the case, although I think it should be "reasonably" static.
In FY2011, the Demand Data for the period that was Current for EB3-I only dropped by less than 90% of the number of cases actually approved. It looks to be the same for FY2012 if EB3-I received the maximum approvals possible. Clearly, about 10% of approvals were not reflected in the net reduction of the Demand Data. For EB3-ROW, the gap has been as big as 30%. The Demand Data includes a warning that "Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand."
The actual drop in numbers in the Demand Data for 2003-2004 were 325, 425 and 50 for Oct, Nov and Dec respectively.
The drop may give some idea of the numbers involved, but that is as far as it goes in my opinion. I wouldn't be over reliant on it.
My 2 cents - We should see overall picture of demand and also inventory. The dates may move sometime in April/June to build good inventory and then retrogress for last 2-3 months. This way all demand numbers will be streamlined in coming years. But it takes time(frankly quite long but will ease as we go along) as there are many potential porting cases that might come up, which will only clear up(interfiling confusion) till 2007 Eb3 PD quota is also filled up
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
agreed. But it being fairly static gives us a ball park of the numbers we are looking at. The silver lining and tell me if this is incorrect is that I think the number of EB 2 I approvals before sept 2004 are returning to whatever the montly figure was before retrogression. The bump cause by retrogression seems to be over.
sbhagwat2000,
Yes, I agree that USCIS should have worked through any (or at least the vast majority of) accumulated backlog in the 3.5 months since the FY started.
I noticed that there is now a link to the FY2012 DOS Visa Statistics.
Some of the tables have been populated, but not the ones we would be interested in yet.
Hopefully, it does mean the figures will eventually be available much earlier than last year (August). Tables V and VI were among the last to be updated.
Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.
A fairly noticeable rise in the EB numbers for Philippines from 1,856 in FY2011 to 3,393 in FY2012 is evident. I think that reflects a large rise in EB3 Schedule A approvals for RN and PT, since they often don't qualify for H1B and must Consular Process.
LoL!! We have been waiting for this forever! Lets keep checking.... Curious how much SOFAD EB2IC really received last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Me too!!!!!!!
I am very surprised how little has been leaked about the FY2012 figures.
Spec - check this out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12...t-TableIII.pdf
Looks like the data only shows counselor processing at least from EB perspective.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think that is what I said, unless I misunderstand your comment.
----------------Quote:
Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.
You are being polite Spec ;) I didn't read your post quite well the first time!
Q
Is it realistic to expect green card in hand by June 2014 for a priority date of Oct 2008? Between Q's optimism :) and Spec's check on reality :) I assume that would be a good date to plan things around. October's on that cutting edge of being dependent on the next year's refill of SOFAD so I guess June or July of 2014 seems plausible. Arrrrgh... C'mon Obama, do something about that CIR!
triplet,Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
Personally, I think CIR is the best bet. If something can be passed, it will have many good things for EB, having looked at the last Bill proposed.
To get through October 2008 from the beginning of FY2013 requires about 20k (excluding porting) based on DOS Demand Data.
Progress through July 2007 should be relatively quick. Then the period through March 2008 is also relatively "light" due to previous approvals last year. The monthly numbers after March 2008 ramp up, since it appears only 10-15% of those were approved previously.
Assuming this year is going to be a low SOFAD year (not everybody will agree with that), SOFAD would probably have to return to somewhere in the 20-25k range in FY2014 for October 2008 to be covered within the FY (judging by the current Demand Data).
It depends on whether you believe FY2013 is only likely to be a a SOFAD blip, or whether you believe we are entering a period of lower SOFAD for a few years. I don't think anyone can tell what the correct answer is. I certainly can't.
Thank you Spec! Hard to predict, I don't feel too good about it either. Wow, the probability/thought of having to wait until 2015 is just scary, oh man. You're right CIR would be the best bet, let us hope they can work it out for all our sakes!
I'm a keen follower of this thread though lot of times its hard to keep onself abreast of the discussion 'coz of the terms & data involved.
My pd is towards the end of july '08 and I missed last yr's boat in trying to advance/keep a stable job. I'm now considering buyin a house as putting everything on hold forever - on account of GC - makes one feel 'stuck'. Still, one does have to account for when GC would come through. What would be a 'realistic' estimate of when I can expect gc?
Thank you for your time.
I just asked a very similar question a day or two ago and Spec was kind to shed some light on the issue. Just hand tight, you should expect the 'thing' that is definitely worth the trouble maybe before July next year at the latest. Hopefully you will get it even sooner if there are some haphazard movements later this year.
Just published inventory for Jan 2013, EB2-I inventory is 42,585. Same last year Jan 2012 was 12,950.
There would not be any movement on account of building inventory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...01_15_2013.pdf
EB1---13k
EB2ROW--13.5K
Total---26.5K+CP
If USCIS adjudicates at the same speed--<3months as they did last year(looks like they are already doing) then getting 5K SO also looks tough this year
By comparing the demand data (from DoS) with this inventory data, should we be able to determine what percentage of applications are pre-adjudicated?
When I look at demand data for EB2-I for PD 2007 it is 5500. But the inventory is only 5177. Generally (especially for PD's in 2009 & 2010), there should be more applications in the inventory data than in the demand data. But it does not appear so.
I would like to understand EB2-ROW demand. Their quota is 34,440 (40040-5600:I&C).
-Let us say they have used up 25% of their quota in the 1st 3 months and 75% (25,830) remains to be allocated. This is a BIG assumption.
-Let us also assume their average monthly demand as 782 (arrived by dividing PD 2012 inventory number 9,386 by 12).
-If I assume that it takes 4 months to approve perm and then 485's would not be issued for PD's after May 2013.
So the maximum approvals should be 13,362 (entire inventory) + 3910 (782 * 5 months Jan to May) = 17,272.
Subtracting 17,272 from remaining visa's 25,830 would give = 8,558 spill across. I am not sure how many visa's go to counsular processing.
Is my logic correct?
this is a disaster. Look at 2004 numbers they increased by more than 200. that means demand is extremely high. in oct it was 418 now its 648. That means even after approving cases the number increased meaning they are just overwhelmed with demand. i am not being pessimistic but with this I dont see how dates would move. With this trend dates for Eb2 I will be UQuote:
Originally Posted by dorais
Monthly demand-->758 for 2012 is incorrect as dates retrogressed for 4 months lot of applications were filed from November2012, pending inventory does not represent total number of applications that came in from Nov onwards as it has been only 2 months it takes some time for them to show up in pending inventory(same thing happened with EB2I pending inventory last year) and more over some applications are already approved which does not show up in inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by dorais
Unfortunately at this point except CO no body knows how many visas are used by EB2ROW each month.
It does take 4 months to get PERM approval but we cannot assume 2013 Jan-May will have same number of applications as 2012 because any one with PD<2012 can apply including EB3-EB2ROW porting.
It would be great if EB2ROW does not use any SO from EB1/EB4(if any), I don't think EB2ROW is going to yield any SO this year
Openaccount - Thanks. I can see that some of the EB2-ROW's early in 2012 would have already been approved and would not be in the inventory report. That number is not correct.
dorais,
Also bear in mind that the USCIS Inventory only shows an I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Any concurrent filed cases where the I-140 has yet to be approved will not show in the figures.
Approvals for EB2-ROW appear to have been very heavy in the first quarter due to the previous retrogression - they seem well above the 25% you are assuming IMO.
Historically, EB2-ROW have much higher approvals than your calculation would suggest. FY2009 = 30.1k FY2010 = 24.4k FY2011 = 30.2k.
The figures you have quoted (9,386) are for ROW, not WW, so the allocation for them is 40,040 - (2,803 * 4) = 28,828 not the 34,440 in your post.
PS To me, ROW are those Countries other than ICMP. WW are those Countries sharing the latest Cut Off Date in a Category. As in EB3, not all Countries other than IC necessarily share the latest Cut Off Date. There, WW only refers to ROW & M. M & P can have entirely independent factors governing their figures e.g. % of CP cases or Schedule A.
Thanks Spec. In the inventory report there are 649 cases (EB2- ROW) with PD of Dec 2012. Are these cases filed without Perm (like in NIW)?
One thing puzzles me with the Inventory data is..............
Under EB2 WW category I see the 437 applications for OCT 2012, 1,321 applications for NOV2012 and 731 applications for DEC 2012.
How come someone file the 485 application with priority date NOV 2012 and DEC 2012, when the PERMs for NOV and DEC are still not processed.
Can someone throw light on this.
The quick answer is National Interest Waiver.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Spec, I find it hard to believe that the data only includes concurrent filers with an approved I-140. If that were the case, Dec 2012 should be almost 0 under EB-2.
In fact, this is from the FAQ on the inventory
Quote:
Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?
A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.
I interpret the phrase in bold to mean that those with a pending I-140 who have filed an I-485 would be included.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dorais
dorais, redsox2009,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Up front, I will say I have never been able to understand or extract anything useful from the EB1 and EB2-WW USCIS Inventory figures.
I think we have to question quite how accurate the data is (at least at a PD level).
The numbers are more indicative of the pattern of numbers expected (regardless of PD) as the Cut Off Date first moved 01JAN12 in October (and where many have already been approved), then became Current in November.
The numbers (for late PD months at least) do not make sense because, as you say, it would be very difficult to have so many with such late PDs.
Trackitt cases do not reflect the same pattern - for instance, there is only one non-NIW EB2-ROW case pending in the tracker with a December 2012 PD. Even that one is suspect, since the PD is one day later than the RD. It is either wrong or is an NIW/Schedule A case - probably the former. Even today, the numbers of EB2-ROW Trackitt cases drops off markedly after a PD of June 2012. Fair warning - Trackitt does not necessarily reflect the true situation.
There are two possibilities:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
1. WW cases are being added based on filing date and not PD. Why the inconsistency, I do not know. This is one way of explaining the "surges" in EB2-WW for June 2012 (right before retrogression) and November 2012 (when dates became current again).
2. WW cases are being added based on PD, but there are a lot of NIW / Schedule A cases. So when dates were about to retrogress and just after they became current, a lot of applications arrived.
Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
The surge in numbers make me think that WW cases are actually the number of cases received in each month. If that is the case, isn't it little bit easy to estimate the future demand based on the trend? We should also be able to add that estimate for the future months with the current inventory to get approximate demand for the rest of the year.