EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Well the final dates have moved to Apr 2009 for EB3, not Apr 2010. Apr 2010 is only for demand capture and that's also done now.

The porting from EB3 to EB2 had been very persistent, that's why it took EB2 6 years to truly go past 2008. So no surprise very little EB3 applicants were found till 2008 as 6 years worth of numbers were taken away by EB3s of many different years. Even Jan-Apr 2009 PI for EB2 is holding no one but EB3 porters who applied in Aug-Oct 2014. So again no surprise there are only a few EB3 applicants till Apr 2009.

EB3 would reach end of 2009 this FY but thats about it, regardless of what bulletin is saying. It might go into 2010 but would retrogress as downporters from mid-late 2009 start having their impact.

Also the right way to look at numbers from 2010 is to treat EB2+EB3 as a pool - so about 10K visas total. In my guess starting Jan 2010, EB2 downporters would take about 8K of these leaving 2K to original EB3s. This would make EB3 crawl much like EB2 crawled before. EB3 would move about 3 months per year, with EB2 about a few months behind it.

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Excellent analysis! I totally agree that eb3 fad will not go beyond 2009 in fy2019.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.

As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.

My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me :)

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Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

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Originally Posted by infotalk

EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009

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You no need my help here. You can predict this date for yourself.
Find the number of applicants before your PD and divide that number by the visa supply. You can safely assume 4k supply of Eb2India Visas in FY19 & FY20.
More over the FEB VB already gave the guidance of the VB movement(1week/VB), based on that guidance it may take 8 VBs to get to your date.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

You no need my help here. You can predict this date for yourself.
Find the number of applicants before your PD and divide that number by the visa supply. You can safely assume 4k supply of Eb2India Visas in FY19 & FY20.
More over the FEB VB already gave the guidance of the VB movement(1week/VB), based on that guidance it may take 8 VBs to get to your date.

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Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?

My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?

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Originally Posted by infotalk

EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009

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Per VB Guidance, it should take 6 months for you to be current and get your card. But my prediction is that there will be some SO in EB2 this year and you will get it earlier than 6 months if you have already filed AOS. I will even go as far as saying that EB2I may even steal more EB3 Visas like it has been happening for the past few years. So, I see the EB2I FAD hitting October 09.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

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Is there a way we can bet on this ? :)

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

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Originally Posted by Airbender

Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?

My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?

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The predictions are only till May, after may we can expect some SO

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Is there a way we can bet on this ? :)

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

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Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

My PD is Dec 2009 and I had responded to my RFE in September 2018 i.e my medicals + the supplement J . I understand that they passed an order that Medical reports would be Valid for 2 years instead of one year from Nov of 2018. I wanted to know if the medical I filed in September 2018 would be valid until Sept of 2019 or Sept of 2020 ?

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

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I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)

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Originally Posted by gcwait

I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)

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Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

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One only needs right knowledge and determination to make it happen. It is very easy as compared to EB3-Eb2 upward porting. We are legally allowed to pay for both I140 petition and I485 application. Once we offered to pay for both, company couldn't do much to deny it.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)

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My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

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i) I really wish it could be easier but we all know the reasons.
ii) I don't think there is any resistance among Indians to downgrade. People who have already filed I485 won't do it because of the reasons already discussed in the forum. Whoever has not filed it yet will try with their maximum capacity to do it. Hence the downgrade rate will increase substantially once date hits May 2010. If their companies won't allow it, they will change ships and start from scratch. Eb2 dates will take a while to catch up.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

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No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

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This is just 'prediction' right? :D we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

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Ask your attorney bro. You can post what you learned on this forum from your attorney.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

This is just 'prediction' right? :D we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.

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I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?

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None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.

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Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

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This is simply not true. There is no way EB3 DF will stay at April 2010 until Oct 19. Whether USCIS will honor DF is a separate question.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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Did you all tried to do PP?

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Originally Posted by gcwait

Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

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Thank you and appreciate the advice.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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Just to add to this ... NONE of the friends I know who already has an EAD are even thinking about porting over to EB3 and restarting the process..
When I suggested it to some people, they just laughed it off ... I believe 20 - 25% max will port down and those are people mostly with out EAD + AP.

Also, the new requirement of going to interview will be a deterrent to many people who already has an EAD.
GC is important to people, but staying in US Of A is even more improtant, if there are easier ways to do it, they will.

I think the true date movement for EB3 after May 2010 will be simple equation -

( Eb2 + Eb3 demand ) - 7k( EB3 quota + spillover ) a year and the progress of FD and FAD depends on that equation.

Does any one have stats regarding that demand ? How may people are waiting for AOS in each year ? 2010, 2011, 2012, etc.

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Originally Posted by gcwait

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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gcwait - is there any specific reason not using old EB3, when that is straight AOS filing. i am also in the same situation and planning to ask my company when my date is eligible for filing .

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Originally Posted by gcwait

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

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So did u file new 140 concurrently? If so, did u receive bio metrics notifications?

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Originally Posted by gcwait

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

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So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

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I think YT's apprehension about down porting might be right. Thought I don't wish it on anyone, these are different times than when Chinese were doing it back in 2013-2014. The fear of H1B/I-140/etc rejections was not that widespread and it was pretty much a given thing that your petition would most likely get approved.

However, these are different times and all it would take is a few rejections associated with down porting to curb the enthusiasm of individuals/companies.

My two cents.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

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You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

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CO is worried not just for this year. He is worried about next year as well. In order for him to start allocating GC for FY20, he have to move DF dates starting April or May of this year.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

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I am not sure why you are comparing with last year. Last year people filed in May and hence they couldn't get the approval by year end. I am talking about the people who have filed in the First quarter of this FY. They will get remaining three quarters in the FY for the processing. Not all people will get the approval this FY, but a good percentage should get it. If you are following filing dates closely this year, you will see there is much a better coordination between DOS and USCIS now. In last check-in CO had mentioned that USCIS may not use FD starting next month and then USCIS posted the exact same update on their website.

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

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Yes, i am in the same boat. Attorney said they will be able to file the downgrade with the amendment

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

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My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

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Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

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Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

My PD is Nov 2010. EB3I got 140 and ported to EB2I. what are my chances for getting at least EAD. i am in this country for the last 12 years and still in H1B.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

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I wish 'he' was that 'well' aware. History suggests otherwise. EB3I has been losing SO visas to EB2I continuously over the previous few years because of miscalculation by CO. My prediction is that it will be no different this FY. We have no clue how much EB3I demand exists at this time because they have changed the format of the PI, which itself was always a set of fudged numbers. But at least it gave some idea of the backlog. The current PI gives us no idea of the backlog at all.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

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The porters won’t have an impact till the final dates in Eb3 moves beyond May 2010. I also did not upgrade in 2016 when I had a chance, as I realized for my Feb 2011 date Eb3 was most likely to be faster. I know Eb3 is basically subset of Eb2 skills and people who qualify will definitely downgrade.