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Any updates from folks who have applied for 485 this year in the last few months.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
I am asking because my perm is just about certified after a job change and wondering how long will it take for EAD/GC Approval.
My PD is Dec 2010 as my Handle.
Applied in June with Premium I-140 and 485 + EAD + AP + Medicals. I-140 was approved within premium time window. Got receipt notices for 485 and others within month but still waiting for BM appointment letter. Checked with EMMA and as per agent my file is still in LIN SC.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
Do you have an idea why the interview was not waived in your case? Did you have any special scenario that you know? Just curiousQuote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Bumping the thread for more visibility
Quote:
Originally Posted by freedomseeker
Given that there are EB2, EB1, EB3, India, China and ROW in the pool eligible to get GC. Does anyone know how USCIS prioritizes the applications?
I know that they do look at notice date i.e. when they sent the notice. What about other factors? Any thoughts/expert comments?
I do think they Prioritize ROW and then followed by EB1,EB2 and so on. Now hold your horses before you go about calling USCIS racist ;). In normal circumstances they prioritize ROW simply because it gives them an idea of the horizontal spillover to be applied to EB India and China as early as possible. Similarly they want to prioritize EB1 and so on, as they want to determine the vertical spillover across categories as soon as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
2 is just rumor on street; you don't want to base your life decision based on it. If you are not in hurry of filing I-485 then go for I-140 first then I-485. If you want to play absolutely safe then file concurrently. You will be safe in long term (AC-221, no perm/i-140 post 180 days, Kids age out etc) with concurrent filing instead of playing cute. Ask anybody from May-2012 how long it took them to file their I-485.Quote:
Originally Posted by freedomseeker
3. List looks good; you can skip EAD and AP if you are not in hurry and just get GC in ~9months.
monsieur,
Thanks for the pointers. On #3, I interpret from the comments of many people in this forum that the applications for EAD/AP is processed by a different office/SC and the rest of other applications (including I-485) is processed by different office/SC. If that is right, can you please enlighten me on how the EAD/AP applications have an impact on getting GC earlier than usual?
Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
So, do you believe EB2 will get processed? I'm EB2 2010 and still have to hear anything positive on i485 front. I heard that someone with 2014 Dec EB3I priority date got greened. I've no clue how this organization works.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
To answer your questions, for the first 3 quarters USCIS process the numbers with 7% country limit clause. That makes ROW petitions given a higher priority than others. Come this September, every body in Eb3 till January 2014 and Eb2 till September 2011 are eligible to get greened.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
Your 2010 application is in one pile which may be handled by an officer who has to work on petitions which might be complicated. My 2011 petition had all the necessary documents submitted as requested by USCIS 3 months back. I even opened a SR last month. Called again them couple of days back, they said my application is with an officer, and you got to wait.
On the EAD front they have approved mine and my spouses, while my sons petition was NOT ACTED upon. I opened a service request for that also as it exceeds the normal processing time.
USCIS process time for GC has dramatically increased according to greencardly. So you got to stay patient
Charlie said that's not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Don't worry abt USCIS case load; proceed with what makes you comfortable. If you are OK of not getting EAD/AP and/or you are working with your own attorney and can save some $$ without raising your anxiety level, then skip it. If company is filing and there is no difference, then I would say file for it. No harm in getting those entitlements which are part of 485 process.
No one, I bet has first hand knowledge how USCIS is distributing workloads and process 485, EAD, AP cases. So don't enter that rabbit hole. Go with your guts, as you know your situation best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by freedomseeker
Did anyone even talk or discuss about the Sep visa bulletin or we felt that is of min impact now?
FAD
EB2 - 01Sep11
EB3 - 01Jan14
Not sure what needs to be discussed. The FADs moved to meet the original FDs as is intended. It's just wait and watch from here on for October and beyond -- given possible law changes and impact of visa wastage and demand carryover to FY22.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
Hello all,
I was wondering if this statement from the "USCIS Temporarily Extending Validity Period of Form I-693" shows that the wastage of green cards will be fewer than expected?
"USCIS is on track to approve more employment-based adjustment of status applications than it has since FY 2005. We have prioritized employment-based adjustment of status applications during every step of its processing and adjudication during this fiscal year. We continue to make processing and resource allocation decisions to increase the pace of adjudications and limit the potential for employment-based visa numbers to go unused."
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-of-form-i-693
To their credit (and to be honest Biden admin deserves the credit rather than the agency) yes indeed they are significantly on their way to reduce potential wastage.Quote:
Originally Posted by namits
But this extension ends on Sep 30 2021. So all of this is to really be able to approve GCs without having people to require to do medicals again as long as they had done one in last four years.
There is no proof of this. Daily scraped data shows no increase in EB 485 approvals.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's because the case data doesn't represent reality either in terms of case density or case status. In the old days the data in various forums (e.g. trackitt) used to be decently representative of true demand at least within a few years. Now there is such a fatigue among backlogged community people have stopped caring. So I'd be careful coming to any conclusion based on such data.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I am basing my opinion simply on the fact that we actually are seeing approvals from pretty far away dates that is consistent with the way VB dates have moved.
On the contrary, the data is far better. Forget about Trackitt. Every single case is being scraped every day now. There is no increase in 485 approvals at LIN and SRC where all the downgrade cases. They have barely approved any of the 485s filed in October 2020. They are still working on the FY19 and FY20 backlog mostly. It's true that MSC approvals, adjudicated at FOs, might be up - we don't know the split of their 485 approvals between EB/IR/FB.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The approval of PDs you are seeing is just reflective of the fact that USCIS does not process by PD. They process in order of RD or ND, regardless of PD.
I don't think every single case is being scrapped. I will believe it when I see it.
I think those cases are being scrapped that are being fed somewhere on internet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Chinese group on Telegram has done a phenomenal job. There are a few other sites that also scrape all the cases. Case Tracker app on iPhone shows you precise data for up to 500 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
No comparison with Spec/Kanmani days directly but these provide a very pointed picture of what's happening IRL. It is clear that:
- Only a few thousand or so burst RFEs came out of the SMS / email campaign for both LIN and SRC.
- Even after 2 weeks after asking for "overnighting" medicals, we have not seen even a handful of approvals for those RFEs, while the SMS/ tweeting campaign goes on.
SRC and LIN seem to be at a standstill.
This dashboard https://public.tableau.com/app/profi...te/I-485Status shows SRC data; there is some progress but truly minuscule compared to the pile of I-485 they are sitting on!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by sstest
Yes but that still is a fraction of all cases. And so I would be hard pressed to arrive at any conclusions looking at that data.
If anybody has cogent argument about what all that data is telling us - I certainly would like to know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sstest
No, Q, they are scraping ALL the receipt numbers including from 2012, 2018, 2019 and 2020, in addition to 2021. The data is on the Telegram groups (@GreenCardUpdates). I've posted links before in this thread and screenshots of the charts before they asked not to.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It is very clear that there is no change in the pace of approvals.
They could be scrapping from any year but that doesn't mean they are scrapping all.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Have you seen case status for a million cases ?
Certainly there has been increase in the I-485 approvals in Q4 based on the various data crunching sites
(--Track it
--https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTAxNTE4YTktNzEzMi00ZDAzLTk5MWYtZDl mN2Q5NTg5YjNkIiwidCI6ImNiYmI0OTZlLTE5YTgtNGI1Ny1iZ DdmLTJhMzBlNTY3MjNhYiIsImMiOjF9
--https://hilites.today/uscis_cases
)
Majority from MSC which processes both FB and EB applications. IF the the approvals increase from LIN and SRC which processes only EB applications (correct me if I am wrong), then it is a good sign that the wastage of EB numbers will be minimum.
As per their stats they are tracking a total of 67K for Nebraska (LIN), 417k for National Benefits center (MSC) and 73k for Texas (SRC) for the year of fiscal year 21. It totally comes to about ~ 560K cases for fiscal year 2021. All of EB applications went to one of these above centers.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
What about applications which started as LIN but got transfer to NBC. Are those under MSC ( getting processed) or LIN ( not getting processed)?Quote:
Originally Posted by ImmiGiveMe
Those are interesting and impressive numbers but again one has to dissect them by case types and priority date and country categories and then somehow also normalize that across all years to figure out your samples vs true population to figure out what's going on. I used to do all that using trackitt data. That's how this whole thread came about.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
But now I don't even use trackitt frankly. In fact I stopped doing manual effort.
The problem with any such data is it is so temporal and ridden with hidden follies that it becomes useless.
That's my last on this topic. I don't mean to trash their effort at all. So please don't read it as such. All I am saying is - having data is good. But then people need to also process it the right way to come to conclusions. And if you think based on that data that 485s are not being processed fast enough - that's a fair comment. I can't subscribe to that view. I do think USCIS is on its way to process 200K cases this year and that's substantial processing considering we saw literally nothing until Trump got out of the office. In other words if Biden was president in Oct 2020, we could have seen fulll utilizations of quote.
It also means that for next year I am now much more bullish. There is going to be a ton of new numbers for 2022!!
YES. They are tracking all 200k EB filings and also FB and IR filings received in October 2020. And same for years before that and months after thatQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
.
You don't need PD etc. The pattern is very clear - they are processing in order of Receipt number.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
And yes, as someone said above, most of the increase has been at MSC/FOs. SRC and LIN have seen no improvement other than that they are slowly starting to work on FY21 cases as they, or at least LIN, clear out the backlog from prior years.
Great. So what's the insight? How many visas will be utilized at current rate?Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I think 170k visa's will be utilized. 90K wastage unless USCIS assigns visa number for DQ'ed non adjudicated applicants.
I know a lot of medical RFE's have been issued in the last few weeks, even to folks who's dates are not current (but expected to in the near future) -- with a response required in 30 days (early September) rather than the usual 87 days. This seems like an attempt to maximize visa number allotment, though not sure how it will be implemented.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alunity
@Q: It seems USCIS is processing ~2K apps per day. With ~30 days to go, at least 100K will be wasted. All portals seem to be accurate because their numbers are in the ballpark i.e. ~2K/day. Moreover, the chances of all of them being wrong are small because they are all tracking FY20 and FY21 applications, which cover entire 'official processing times' for each FO. What they have done is truly incredible. This type of stuff should ideally come from the official channels.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Moreover, we can see that the processing picked up in June/July. Before this, everyone was sleeping. This wouldn't have happened if proactive attempts were made to absorb the spillover. Some field offices are still sleeping.
100k waste probably.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks. @2K per day for Jun to Sep would be 170K visas over and top the 90K that USCIS usually would have processed. That would mean almost zero wastage. So we can easily rule out 100K wastage.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
I do think the processing picked up after in May WhereismyGC first officially declared wastage of 56K. Then lawyers started talking about it. Then in June CO came out in June and made noise about 100K. Because of this or may be not - but Biden admin must have stepped pressure and processing picked up speed. It is unfortunate that we still might see ~55K wastage IMHO. But it won't be 100K.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
No Q. 2K per day started around 7/27. Before that it was between 500 and 1000/day, of which 60-80% were FY20 receipt approvals. Moreover, this is only MSC. TSC and LIN are still between 30 and 90/day.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Approval of ~2k per day I-485 applications dose not mean that all 2k are EB. In Q4 we have 64 working days. So, total (~128K) I-485 approvals can happen and in that god knows how many will be EB.
Given USCIS penchant to approve FB more than EB, so any number less than 100K wastage is a blessing.
Q - You said that you won't comment anymore, but you can't escape so easily:D. We look up to you, Spec , and others for key insights.
While I am a novice and not as experienced as some of you folks, but I have some calculations too (based on trend, viewpoints, telegram Chinese charts, USCiS statement s), and the end result comes close to what Q is saying.. around 50-60k wastage.
Here's the insight that I am getting ..
1. Q1 and Q2 EB approved = 46000
2. Charlie said in mid July that around 100k will be wasted, so based on data he had for Q3 and expected speed on Q4, he was expecting around 100k to be processed in Q3 and Q4.
I am assuming that he based it with a consideration of 40k for Q3 and 60k for Q4. I took this split considering that we saw more trend of approval in July which is part of Q3.
So I am considering Q1+Q2 = 46000, Q3 ~40000.
3. Towards end of July, there was a sudden change of pace. We started seeing lots of approval posts. Saw my friends getting GCd around/after this. Telegram charts showing similar trend as well. Considering this trend of 1.5/2k per day, Q4 should get around 100-110k EB approval.
So Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 ~ 190K to 200K
USCIS said that they expect max approval since 2005, so they expect approval below or around 200k which is in similar line. If they expected 150k approval then I feel they wouldn't have given reference of 2005.
I so hope that max and maX gets approved. Wife's eb2 is 2014 Dec and mine 2015 June, and both changed job so new process needs to be started ..
Note - Tomorrow we have Charlie's chat, so I am sure we will have a much clearer data tomorrow, and I hope we get some positive insights.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk