Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?
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Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?
Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?
Some of them were getting approvals in December. There were basically applications approved in Nov, 2013 and were assigned visa numbers. It was just that the approvals took time to show up due to delays in processing. In some cases delays are large leading to late approvals (Jan).Quote:
Originally Posted by bonobo
just sharing an experience, my PD is Jan 2009 and applied for EAD renewal as I got EAD for 1 year on my last renewal (my wife got 2 year validity on 2013 renewal), approval came in for 2 years(valid till Jan 2016); looks like it's unlikely to reach Jan 2009 in 2014.
I fail to understand your point. The 2 years , 1 year, etc is a little jumbled up.Quote:
Originally Posted by JJcalifornian
Dates moving to a particular date and everyone before that date getting GC are two different things. For example, dates did move to June 2008 but not necessarily everyone before that PD got their GC. Some are still continuing on EAD even though their dates became current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Sorry for the confusion, all I was trying to say is; IO wouldn't be anticipating the dates will move in to Jan 2009 based on the information they have. Otherwise it would be a 1 year (till 2015) validity of EAD instead of two years. Agreed to the fact that everyone may not get the GC upon jumping the dates, but there is high probability of getting a GC. Let me say if some one with a PD Jan 2008 applies for an EAD renewal, he would be getting a 1 year valid EAD, since it's almost certain that dates will move beyond Jan 2008.
Now the 2/1 year part, we (wife&myself) applied I485 in 2012, along with EAD and approved it for 1 year validity. Upon reaching that 1 year time frame we send out application for EAD renewal, and She got it approved with a 2 year (till 2015) validity, and myself (primary) was renewed for 1 year. So now, that 1 year is getting over for my EAD and I did send out the renewal application again, this time I was expecting 1 year extension due to the fact that the dates may move in to Jan 2009, but they approved it for 2 year, that leads me to a conclusion that, it's gonna take more than a year to reach Jan 2009.
JJcalifornian,
My understanding is different . Whenever an EAD/AP application is reviewed, they look for the PD , if it is current they approve for 1 year, if it is not current, they go for 2 years.
The other theory is an assumption theory which is prevalent in the immigration forums to predict forward movements.
I think you have a very good chance to pass through. Good Luck!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sreddy
Agree with shekar. There's no reason not to get h1 renewed. It is a safety net in case something happens to the 485...not saying anything will happen but h1 is like insurance in this case.Quote:
Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks Kanmani!
I wish so..
Getting back to prediction for EB2I..I understnad the next milestone people would ahve more infromation is inventory?
based on what we know now, I consider following as WORST case scerario
Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k
(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)
Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k
Demand-
Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k
leftover for forward movement =Supply-demand = 2.5k
This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008
Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.
Vizkid, DO you think you would get GC by Sep 2014? 99.9% sure?
I would say the above is completely unrealistic. Let me point a few cases where you are wrong:Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
1. EB gets approx 10000 from FB and not 8000 as mentioned in your post. FB utilized approximately 216k instead of 226k and hence the rest comes to EB.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...ort-TableV.pdf
2. You completely disregarded the slow PERM movements. EB2ROW will yield much more than 2k to EB2I.
3. Porting demand: There is no way that 6k of porting demand remains after FY2013 visas were used up. It is simply unrealistic. It would not be more than 3k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Jagan,
I think he said worst case scenario.
And I said that his worst case was unrealistic and did not even consider the correct numbers. For eg. 8000 FB to EB spillover instead of the actual 10000.Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
I was just correcting the facts.
I think harapatta was using the earlier announced limit of 148K vs the revised one of 150K. But other than that omission his scenario is not "completely" unrealistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Q, Thanks
Jagan,
1.Yes I used old figure of 8k instead of 10k.
2. I have heard about PERM demand slow..but also account for Korea and Phipl with huge numbers last year..KNow that included 15 months but still is increasing..
3. Well total porting is what I meant..Offcourse if 3k has been approved that..it has to be taken out of both Suppply and Demand..will not effect prediction...
So worst case could be slightly better Lets say by end of this fiscal...Sep end 2008 but not more..atleast based on all what you suggested,,
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If you are saying that scenario is not completely unrealistic then it must be correct. You have much more information than most of us. I personally felt it is completely unrealistic.
The only worry I had was for people to make their future decisions on such claims. It strikes panic and people make certain wrong decisions. Anyways, we shall know in a few days, after the new Inventory numbers are out.
Jagan - Don't put too much faith in me either!!! I don't have access to any special information that is not out there publicly.
I think harapatta painted a scenario that he himself considered worst case i.e. with low probability. So I thought no harm in considering one as such. That's all.
You are right about people might misconstrue it as THE scenario!! The problem in predictions is that people like to know black and white ... and unfortunately there is no black and white in predictions. Prediction is all about probabilities and possibilities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Also keep in mind there's a difference between what the numbers say and date movement. Even if there's only 11.5k the dates could still move to Dec 2008 and there will be ppl who miss out this year. Happens every year.
And yes, I am 100% sure I will be current. Note I didn't say I'd get my GC coz there could be other reasons. But I'm positive I will be current.
I think I did not clear my idea of presenting the worst case.
The idea is to know if it is really worse or can it be More worse. So I want to learn from others if there is something that they consider I missed in being pessimistic that I need to include.
Offcourse all other predictions point to better outlook. But thats what others have already done with what we have.
ONe more thing, I remember this situation happened in 2012-2013.
-Once 18k FB were anounced in oct-nov 2012, I heard lot of gurus including spec to predict we could get to dec 2008 or mar 2009 by end of sep2013.
-in spring , feb-april, that prediction got significanlty bad in which gurus predicted date to end up at Nov-dec 2007.
- The dates ended up being june2008.
Well There were lot of reasons why it ahd chnaged over time,, but overall I was myself a victim there as I early on assumed dates to reach Dec 2008 and later learning this and that reason why dates would not cross 2007.
So the idea is to paint both good and more improtant bad picture for decisions.
Again don't confuse the math for actual date movement. Gurus here use the numbers to calculate a theoretical date that the numbers would support. CO can still do whatever he wants in terms of actual dates. So when the dates of mar 2008 were calculated it meant that ALL demand prior to that would be cleared. Since dates moved to June, there is some leftover (which I think you assumed to be 3K and I agree). My rule of thumb is (theoretical date+3 months) for "real date" movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
I agree that I am mistaking date movement by clearing of actual demand. As dates go SLIGHTLY beyond it should.
Well I wish there was better way to predict this SLIGHTLY, but as you said 3 months sounds on optimistic side.
I guess worse case for this SLIGHTLY could be 1or 1.5 months.
So then worse case prediction becomes
by sep 2014 , EB2 should reach Nov 15,2008.
I just got around to looking at the DOS statistics. If the visa allocation for EB in FY2013 was 158,000, then the allocation for each of EB!, 2 and 3 would have beenQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
158000*.285 = 45,188
Since EB3 got a total of 43,740, I would argue that there were actually missing visas, which as usual went to EB-2.
The one glimmer of hope is the massive backlog in PERM - 8 months worth. For most of FY2013 the wait was only 4 months. Since EB2-ROw consumed about 3K a month, those extra four months represent maybe 12K visas thta could potnetially be vaialble in FY2014 (but of course this pent-up demand would then show up in 2015).Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
By the way the EB2-ROW number of 36K includes probably 8K that should have received a visa in FY2012 (in which EB2-I got more visas than they were supposed to). So maybe the "true" number for EB-2 ROW is more like 24K or 2K/month
Does any one have any guess on how porting demand distribution would like ? I mean the priority date distribution of porters? With all the wait times for immigration which seems to be growing by the day, why would people apply in EB3 ( post July 2007 )? Wouldn't people with earlier PDs like 2003/04/05/06 have already ported by now. I understand the retrogression and that there is enough demand to consume monthly quota etc., Why hasn't the porting demand tapered off?
P.S : I don't know how difficult it is to port from EB3 to EB2. I changed employers (EB2 to EB2 ) with 2009 PD.
gcpursuit,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
I would caution against thinking that porting demand is tapering. There would be many theories floating around. However, I personally feel that porting effect of candidates between June 2008 and Dec 2009 will be very high.
Reasons:
1. Not every employer files for MS candidates from US univs in EB2. They somehow try and trick the candidate to file in EB3.
2. The reason why employees did not really matter whether it was EB2 / EB3 at that time is as follows:
- People with PDs between June 08 and Dec 09 would have had their PERM initiated between Jan 08 and Jan 09.
- Considering that timeframe from Jan 08 to Jan 09, most of the time EB2I and EB3I dates were pretty close (In fact in Jan 08 EB3I was ahead of EB2I)
- Economy was on a downturn and when you see there is not much difference between EB2I and EB3I, you try to grab what you are getting.
I would not be surprised if there is a wave of people in between these dates that have ported and are waiting patiently. Please note that these candidates do not get reflected anywhere (neither in demand nor in inventory).