EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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07-15-2011, 01:11 PM
qesehmk

Teddy

In the 33K you have calculated, I agree w the number. But additionally it should also include 5.6K for EB2IC normal allocation. Sincethat 5.6K would otherwise be burried in the normal rate of approval.

Overall, I think I have thought this through from multiple angles and made a very compelling case for more than 5K SOFAD for september bulletin. So now I am going to rest my pen on this topic unless there are questions directed at me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin.
07-15-2011, 01:11 PM
vishnu

Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!
07-15-2011, 01:20 PM
qesehmk

well that's because .... its fryeeday, fryeeday. I started this out of selfish reasons but later on also enjoyed helping out people.

As per my GC ..... if everything goes well hopefull next month.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vishnu

Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!
07-15-2011, 01:35 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy

In the 33K you have calculated, I agree w the number. But additionally it should also include 5.6K for EB2IC normal allocation. Sincethat 5.6K would otherwise be burried in the normal rate of approval.

Overall, I think I have thought this through from multiple angles and made a very compelling case for more than 5K SOFAD for september bulletin. So now I am going to rest my pen on this topic unless there are questions directed at me.

Q the SOFAD value that I had is 33K that includes the regular I/C cap. I agree that 5K is almost sure even if this news is partially true. Your approaches are also flawless in their own right we all working on assumptions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

I just read your post after posting my summary understanding, this calculation looks quite good it definitely makes me veer towards 19K for September.
07-15-2011, 01:46 PM
gchopeful123

Q & T,

In that case, is PD of Sep 2007 a possibility in the Sep 2011 VB - either with business as usual or with BTM?

Thanks
07-15-2011, 01:53 PM
kolugc

True, I did not realize until you pointed this out. I am pretty new and wandering around for any piece of info and found this. Thanks H...

Quote:

Originally Posted by haripathhi

Thanks for the link K. Looks like the author of this blog is a regular reader amongst us :). Whatever is written on his blog has been discussed here by the Guru's which cannot be co-incidence cause of the use of certain terms (ex: PWMB). Anyway, I guess this is another traffic routing gimmick. My 2 cents on this anyways!
07-15-2011, 02:06 PM
sswaitinggc

Kanmani should it be like -> aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!! aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!! :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!!
07-15-2011, 02:25 PM
whereismygclost

gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...
07-15-2011, 02:28 PM
qesehmk

sorry header updated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whereismygclost

gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...
07-15-2011, 02:31 PM
whereismygclost

Thanks Q! That was FAST!
07-15-2011, 02:33 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?
07-15-2011, 02:58 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

Check on immihelp.com. You will find there all information you are looking for.
07-15-2011, 02:58 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

hey deb...

http://www.indianembassy.org/index.p...content&id=167 this link has all the info, you can call or email them if any questions...
07-15-2011, 03:01 PM
soggadu

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...
07-15-2011, 03:22 PM
Stemcell

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:
07-15-2011, 03:27 PM
qesehmk

Its like what does GNU stands for ? The answer is "GNU stands for GNU is not UNIX" :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemcell

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:
07-15-2011, 03:31 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemcell

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!
07-15-2011, 03:37 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)
07-15-2011, 03:39 PM
familyguy

Me 2 love it.. its very funny... Stewie is awesome!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)
07-15-2011, 03:41 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by blue2green

This is my first visit/post but I am sure several ppl who come to this site also strongly believe in other orgs who are sincerely working/advocating for the EB community.
We should focus here just on predictions and data analysis instead of taking a dig at others. If the latter happens, I doubt I personally am interested in coming here.

So all you want to say is concentrate on predictions right...dont worry dude...once we are into Aug first week we will be in full swing doing that... until then i recommend look into old posts and ask any questions... as you are already here.. just chill and know people around... not playing a good guy here, but can't see someone having a bad friday... chil and let chil...
07-15-2011, 03:42 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)

:) i am as eager and would be doing as much dancing once i receive my cards...
07-15-2011, 03:45 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

:) i am as eager and would as much dancing once i receive my cards...

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........:)
07-15-2011, 03:46 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........:)

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...
07-15-2011, 03:48 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...

Soggadu...You are cracking me up....... :D
07-15-2011, 03:49 PM
Monica12

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....:) :)
07-15-2011, 03:50 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Soggadu...You are cracking me up....... :D

remember it's friday... Ye Friday na milegi dubaara... (there would be another friday though)... glad someone is able to smile amidst all this... chiloooraama...
07-15-2011, 03:51 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....:) :)

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...
07-15-2011, 03:58 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

Soggadu, you are toooo... funny!
La..la.laaa.... It's Fryeeeeday..... (trying to break the tension...):cool:
07-15-2011, 04:00 PM
grnwtg

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

I also like to know how you are going to celebrate after getting GC...
07-15-2011, 04:19 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by sha_kus

Thank you sir for the request.. i was about to do that..

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...
07-15-2011, 04:21 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...

LOL ! I agree...:D
07-15-2011, 04:28 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

LOL ! I agree...:D

:) thnx... anyway so long my friends...this GC mess cant stop me from watching Harry Puthar...bole toh first day first show... will definitely open a new thread posting the review ;-)...
07-15-2011, 04:48 PM
July2007PD

question

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

Kanmani all we have here is a blog. We don't have organizational structure to make it happen. Personally I don't think I have the skills and time to do advocacy. I know that I do have skills to bring clarity to GC process. But if a group emerges from this community that wants to do advocacy... I will sure support the group and follow the lead.

Leo I should say sorry. I didn't mean to criticize you. Just tried to say what I said, as a matter of fact. But probably it came out a bit strong.
07-15-2011, 04:51 PM
sjkumar

Quote:

Originally Posted by July2007PD

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

That will be Prediction with Assumptions.
07-15-2011, 04:54 PM
qesehmk

19K is total left. Of that how much comes to EB2IC is the question. The estimates are
3K - Jun 2011
5K - Jul 2011
8K - Aug 2011 + possible BTM

Quote:

Originally Posted by July2007PD

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?
07-15-2011, 04:58 PM
pch053

Quote:

Originally Posted by July2007PD

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

As Q mentioned in the earlier posts, 19K of visas will translate to 5K of spillovers (another calculation estimated around 8K spillovers) to EB2-I/C. So, if 5K spillovers are available, the dates should move to end of June/1st week of July (there are ~4,400 people for EB2-I/C with PDs between April 15 and June 30). If the spillover is greater than 5K, the dates will go well into July or maybe into or past Aug, if the number is 8K.
07-15-2011, 05:05 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by July2007PD

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

To get beyond July 2007, i.e to clear the inventory, after next month (assuming demand is cleared till mid April 2007), it'll need approximately 7.5k visas. However the new 485 apps (from PWMB + Porting) could eat into that mix.
07-15-2011, 05:40 PM
pch053

I think some of the porting cases can consume a portion of the available spillovers but I doubt whether that many PWMB cases (most of PWMB cases will be on or after March-April'07) will be approved by the end of this year (in that case, it needs to be approved in less than 3 months which is a bit unlikely). I think PWMB cases will come into play much more in the coming year.
07-15-2011, 06:04 PM
whereismygclost

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!
07-15-2011, 06:08 PM
qesehmk

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whereismygclost

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

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