Based on your and Teddy's conversation, I infer that the 14k-18k number is the actual visa demand including dependents. Right?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Printable View
Based on your and Teddy's conversation, I infer that the 14k-18k number is the actual visa demand including dependents. Right?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
As KD pointed out...this document is from a round table conference held on Oct 10th 2011. So I am guessing "coming months" means Oct, Nov and Dec 2011 (which means 15Apr'07-15 Mar'08).
http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...ghts-2011.shtm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Us is is talking about expected number of filings based on 140 stats. The number of filings is individual, one for each primary and one for each dependent. If what they expect is 14 to 18k, it would be good to know when they made this comment to see whether the number makes any sense.
Now as for other expectation that there should be at least 50k apps, we need to keep in mind that they are all guesses with lot of assumptions, however educated they be.
No offense to anyone, but most of our calculations are based on assumptions like eb2/eb3 ratio, dependent factor, approval rate, DD, multiple filings, abandonment etc.. The only concrete number we have is the number of perms for both eb2 and 3.
Given that we have a lot of assumptions, is it not possible that the filings may actually be lower than what we expect?
Just a thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Guys thanks. I believe expecting a 14K filing by the Nov bulletin is actually way over the top. However 14-18K till 15th Mar 2008 seems to be reasonable. By the OR of 1, 8 months should yield 17600 and OR of 0.8 should yield 14080. 2200 per month the monthly assumption and starting date is 15-JUL-2007, for simplicity lets discount the 2K PWMB (Oct Filers).Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
The minutes of the discussion says an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months .Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Moreover we all have given information about dependants who will be filing I-485 with the primary in Part 7 of the I-140 application . So, when they claim they were expecting 14-18K I-485 applications it is clear that dependants are included in their calculations and as per AILA, USCIS received only 50% of what they expected to receive.
Does this mean they received only 7-9K up to March 2008?
My belief is that by Mar 15 2008 that number should be a minimum of 14K. Some people are filing late as well. The next bulletin or the subsequent one will hopefully give us some insights also lets see the inventory / upcoming demand data.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Guys, I have a feeling that it is again going to be a 2007 fiasco minus EB3. A big 2012 Eb2 FIASCO. Dates will again retrogress a big time. This is all drama by USCIS to generate revenue. But again great window for all of us to get EADs and next window will again open in next 3-4 years.
Hi All, just wanted to share the good news that our EAD and AP applications were approved yesterday and we got email and text notifications today. Thanks to the moderators for starting and running a great thread like this and thanks to everyone for all the number crunching and information sharing. Hope everyone is greened soon.
PD: 11/15/07, RD: 12/06/11, EAD & AP approval emails: 01/25/2011, SC: NSC.
Folks,
Couple of questions. My 485 etc application will go in by end of this week. I'm primary and my wife is dependent.
1. When can we expect EAD given processing times now?
2. My wife is currently on H1 which expires mid-May (although she has an I-94 on her passport valid till 11/30 from when she was on H4 though). If we don't get EAD by then, im assuming she will need to move back from H1 to H4. How does that impact her 485 application and for that matter EAD/AP as well?
pS: I'll delete this after its answered. Thanks.
vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
You should expect EAD/AP in about 10 weeks from RD.
If your wife is currently on H1 status, don't count on H4 I-94 date in the passport, she must have received i-94 with new expiration date when applied for COS from H4 to H1.
If she don't get EAD/AP before current H1 i-94 expiration then she need to file for H1 extension or stop working until EAD/AP combo card received.
Even if she don't file for COS to H4 or H1 extension , her say will be legal based on pending AOS.
My PD is Dec 2007 and my H1 is expiring on May 2012. I am considering my H1 extension as a backup based on approved 140 as I am on my 6th year. If I apply for the extension now, I am eligible for only one year extension since the my PD is current. Therefore I am thinking of waiting until April end to see if the data retrogress. If they do and go prior to Dec 2007, I can apply in premium and will be eligible for 3 year extension.
But, based on the approval seen on various forums, folks with October 2007 PD are getting approved and therefore the possibility of dates going back prior to 2008 Jan is unlikely. Is this a general consensus that dates would not retrogress that far back and likely go back somewhere in 2008?
We can never predict date movement accurately, for all we know even though there will be very few pre Dec 2007 folks left by May, the dates might go back in 2007 and again start moving based on pending applications and available visas. But either way your logic sounds correct, you will know by Apr 10-12 about May bulletin and you can accordingly apply for H1. But since you have PD of Dec 2007 you are likely to get GC within 6 months so it would not matter if you have 1 year or 3 years H1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reader
She cant extend her H1 .. maxed out her 6 yrs and she works in Fashion so they dont really want to sponsor GCs until its a real issue. But basically what im hearing from your response is that even if her H1 expires, we dont need to worry about applying for a COS to H4 and shes legal from an immigration standpoint.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Ideally it'll be perfect if she can continue to work straight through without a break but worst case she'll take time off and then come back with her EAD.
Where did you get the information that if your PD is current you will get only 1 yr extn? In my opinion, your H1 etn doesn't depend on PD but on the length of the project.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reader
I have seen this rule in many places. Here is one of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Transformer
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_movh1b.html
Transformer,Quote:
Originally Posted by Transformer
I guess what you are mentioning is specific to Consulting jobs. If you are a direct, full time employee I do not think there is any mention of any project duration.
my I140 is approved with PD as May 2011. My wife's consultancy wants to file for her GC as well. She has her MS from here.
Is it a beneficial to start with her GC process as well? Will it create any problem as I have added her as my dependant in the PERM form.
Thanks,
Deb
1. No issues to start your wife's Perm again.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
2. 485 is only stage you need your dependants information/ during Perm/140 its not requied.
Thank you for sharing the link. This is really useful information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reader
My evil head noticed something here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reader
I just applied for an H1 extension (3yrs requested based on approved I140). But if I become current next month, and my H1 application is looked at "next month" + 1 day, they'll only give me a 1 year extension because I will be current on that day. I am not getting my GC for at least another 18/24 months. So I'll have to re-apply for my H1 extension again in about 11 months!!!! (Yeah... I know I'll have my EAD by then but I still want to have an H1 approved)
I know there's a technical difference between what the language says - "availability of visa numbers" and what I am saying - "I am current", but USCIS wont care.
Just another way to make money from us suckers!!! I never knew they were as evil as I was!
BTW - I hope you are all calling your senators repeatedly to request they support HR 3012. It takes 20 seconds per call.
Hello manubhai,
I thought of sharing my experience related to H1b extension. I filed for a 3 year extension (regular process) based on my I-140 approval in Aug. 2011. I became current in Nov 2011 VB (PD: Aug. 2007), and filed for my I 485 while my extension was still pending. I was under the same assumption that I will get 1 year extension cuz, I'm current. But received my approval notice in Jan 2012 for 3 years that was requested for. Now waiting for my EAD/AP approval.
Hope this helps.
Thanks Kanmani and jackbrown_890 for sharing the link.
QQ about QSP.. Are the spillover numbers released at the beginning of the Qtr or towards the end? Yesterday a lot of approvals were reported from NSC.. is this increased activity because of spillover numbers or is it normal at this time of the year?
manubhai,Quote:
Originally Posted by manubhai
You should be fine. It is the availability of visas at the time of filing, not adjudication that is important.
From the May 30, 2008 AC21 Memo
Quote:
2. AC21 §104(c) Guidance for Aliens Subject to Per Country Visa Limitations
Pursuant to AC21 §104(c), an alien is eligible for an extension of H-1B status if the alien is the beneficiary of an I-140 petition and would be eligible to be granted immigrant status but for the application of per country limitations applicable to immigrants under INA § 203(b)(1), (2) or (3). Despite the title of AC21 §104(c), referring to “one-time” protection, USCIS may grant such H-1B extensions, in a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.
AC21 § 104(c) is applicable when an alien, who is the beneficiary of an approved I-140 petition, is eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status but for application of a per country limitation to which that alien is subject or, alternatively, if the immigrant preference category applicable to that alien is, as a whole, “unavailable”. Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to AC21 §104(c) must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations or, alternatively, because the immigrant preference classification applicable to the alien is “unavailable”.
In order to make a determination as to the H-1B alien beneficiary’s eligibility for an extension of H-1B status under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21, USCIS adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of filing of the Form I-129 petition.
If, on the date of filing of the H-1B petition, the Visa Bulletin shows that the alien was subject to a per country or worldwide visa limitation in accordance with the alien’s immigrant visa “priority date”, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted. To establish the alien’s priority date, USCIS may accept a copy of the H-1B alien beneficiary’s Form I-140 petition approval notice.
Pending I-485 inventory is expected in a few days to a week according to a reliable source. I hope it comes true. Lets gear up for a teardown and analysis marathon.
Hello All,
Do both service centers share the same visa numbers (2X for both) or do they get equal numbers for each service center ( NSC - X and TSC - X)?
I ask because if NSC start approving visas, does it mean TSC is loosing its numbers?
Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks.
i think we gotta reroute(hehe..) donations to trackitt so that it can have another server.
it seems to be down most of the times.
I have a similar question. Read somewhere that cases are being routed to TSC for EAD/AP approval since NSC is overloaded. Does that mean, cases can be/are routed to NSC for 485 approval?Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Nishant,
My RD is Nov 2nd and I received FP notice on Dec 9 for Jan 5 appointment. Which is around 65 days after filing.
Yesterday I observed on Trackitt, 5 or 6 Nov approvals have FP dates around this date and FP dates appointments, like me late than NSC average. May be already decided ones for them and FP is mere a formality? Two or three weeks back also I observed Nov NSC approval case, 2-3 weeks after FP.
Just an observation, there is no theory behind it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
visagcinfo, you read it right. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by visagcinfo
Got it. thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by vp5856
If they make this as a law it's boon to all Indians, most of us just need ead/ap to travel to their home country as and when needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Not sure if someone has already shared this news from Murthy.
NewsFlash! March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB2 to Advance Again! Posted 24.Jan.2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.
Hi,Quote:
Originally Posted by psczd4
Thanks for the information it really help me a lot. i was about to file my extension and the exact same day i became current.So asked my attorney to hold off my extension and wanted to apply for H1 B extension after 485 is filed.But with this information i immediately emailed my company.
thank you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Suninphx great news thanks for posting. gkjppp very good news indeed you can be quite confident about the next bulletin now because all the news and the NVC notice now supports forward movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. :) Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.
Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.
Hi gkjppp,
I suggest you drop the word 'or 10/2014 bulletin' from your signature. That gives hope to April 11 PDers in FY 2013.
Best of luck in March bulletin!
wonderful!! I remember reading somewhere, maybe on CM's blogspot blog, that CO has good data of approved I-140 category changeability wise from September 2010 onwards. If that's true, then we might see him move till around September 2010 to gauge the demand. For life of me, I can't find the source of this information I got in my head.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
If the movement is happening based on some data then nothing like it. It will be really a good news for every one. My assumption all the while is that CO is making use of 'technical defination' of demand and moving dates. If the date movement is also based on data even better.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
If you see the latest statement from CO, DOS is not only considering DQ cases but also new I-485 EB2 filings received by USCIS. And USCIS has itself admitted that only 50% of its estimated EB 2 I-485filings are actually being received. This shows clearly the impact of recession in the last few years that has led to substantial demand destruction. Unlike 2007, the DOS in tandem with USCIS are advancing the dates carefully this year so that no FY 2012 visas are wasted. So, let us remain positive and hope for the best.