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My question of the day to all gurus is: Is there any way we can calculate (or speculate) amount of FB Visas consumed in FY 2013. In simple words, have we reached a point where we can say that there will be any SO (out of 24400 annual limit) from the FB category in FY 2014?
Viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
erikbond is somewhat correct, not exactly as he describes.
I was reading CO's notes from previous years' visa bulletins, Mr.Charlie has had vague knowledge of the exact demand, he was even singing the same song of unknown demand from up-graders in the year 2008. He said in one bulletin that the COD has been advanced more than required, primarily to accommodate the hidden demand into the DD ( not in exact same words).
There is an example shown in July 2008 visa bulletin, how unused visas are separated and distributed .
Thoughts on delay for releasing demand data. Is it good news or bad ? Is it odd to hold it back.
Hi,
Any predictions on eb2C for this year and 2014 ?
Thank you for the replies !
My PD is 06/2010
It is very much an usual practice of them, not to release DD sometimes.Quote:
Originally Posted by mannyt
On the otherhand, it is quite possible to exceed atleast 20-30%.
The demand has to comeout in first week itself and gving only very few workings days(5-6 IMHO). Assuming that the pre-2007 adjudiciated porters numbering about 7,000 not in demand would resurafce in this time(How could sort all check/verify all and check the need to issue RFE if not in EB2? and not visible)
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
rosharma,Quote:
Originally Posted by rosharma
I don't think it is possible, or will be, until the FY2013 Visa Statistics are released.
I haven't seen any figures for FB usage.
The only thing I think we can say is that, because the decision to make F2A Current was made so late in the FY, it decreases the chance that all FB visas will be used and increases the chances that some extra FB visas will be available to EB in FY2014.
I do notice that other FB Cut Off Dates seem to have also been advanced more quickly, which would give them the opportunity to use any visas unused by F2A.
Spillover for FB is
F2A/B --> F3 --> F4 --> F1 --> F2A/B
Last year, the problem seemed to be with F2A-Mexico usage. I wonder whether DACA may have influenced F2A-Mexico usage. i.e. a number of those applicants were actually already in the USA undocumented. It's pure speculation on my part.
eb2china,Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2china
I am a little surprised that EB2-C has stalled at 08AUG08 in the August VB.
I don't think EB2-C will receive any spillover in FY2014 because EB2-I will have earlier PD. Nonetheless, it should be able to advance around a year.
I think your PD has a very good chance in FY2015.
Bear in mind it is difficult to speculate so far ahead.
Thank for reply "Spectator" !!
wow 2015..i thought ..i might be able to file my 485 in 2014.
eb2china,Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2china
Treat it as speculation only.
The problem I see is that it might require 5k visas in FY2014 to cover a PD in June 2010 for EB2-C.
The normal allocation is 2.8k per year. It's difficult to see where an extra 2.2k would come from in FY2014, since EB2-I will use all spillover visas available.
Even the extra 18k FB visas this year only resulted in an increase to the EB2-C allocation of 360, so that is not the answer.
I believe EB2-C would also be entitled to a 7% proportion of any Fall Down from EB1, but that might only result in an extra 0.3-0.5k in FY2014.
I can't see a scenario where the extra required to cover June 2010 would be available in FY2014. Sorry.
I'm sure there are things that he knows or can speculate. He could also just move the dates ahead and let the chips fall (as erikbond suggests). Point is that fundamentally those are the variables that will determine COD and 2 are known for sure...porting is the only wildcard. Porting number of 5000 vs 7000 is a big difference. But I still can't see a scenario where it'll go to August as erikbond suggests. I dont think it'll even get to April (again unless CO is reckless).Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I agree with your view, but there is a concern that how many of the 5000( my number) porting cases would reach the DD within first 10 days of August. In this case, he could move dates ahead as he did many times in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
If USCIS has a flexibility to give not just an approval notice, but the physical GC itself even before the PD is not current or due after 15 days, why don't they have the flexibility to add the up-graders into the DD prior to August 1?
Both the scenarios are possible.
rferni - looks like nobody answered this. The answer is yes - that is the most plausible and probably explanation.
However sometimes I have also seen very weird demand data quirks. But I would tend to think these are pretty much portings.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.
Q3
Certified -- 6,720 -- 76.23%
Denied ----- 1,355 -- 15.37%
Withdrawn ---- 741 --- 8.40%
Total ------ 8,816
As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.
Q1 - Q3
Certified - 27,848 -- 83.28%
Denied ----- 3,462 -- 10.25%
Withdrawn -- 2,129 --- 6.37%
Total ----- 33,439
INDIA Q3
Certified -- 4,158 -- 78.48%
Denied ------- 763 -- 14.40%
Withdrawn ---- 377 --- 7.12%
Total ------ 5,298
As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.
INDIA Q1 - Q3
Certified - 16,510 -- 85.28%
Denied ----- 1,686 -- 8.71%
Withdrawn -- 1,164 --- 6.01%
Total ----- 19,360
Certifications for India represent 59.29% of Total Certifications.
Q,
The problem resolved itself after leaving it a few minutes, so please disregard my earlier email.
From the USCIS L2 conversations I followed in trackitt, USCIS is working on interfile cases now. if that is the case, a very high percentage of interfile cases may get converted to demand even before Sep bulletin comes out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hey guys, do you think immigration reform will pass this year? If yes, how much time it will take to fully implemented.
I personally doubt it'll happen this year. They have about 4 months to introduce legislation, go thru cmte, full House, then a conference and a final vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Also I'm not quite sure what "fully implemented" means? The more important question is effective date once it has been passed.
What I meant after it gets passed, h4 spouse will have the option to start work immediately as this is one of their clause? Or as you said will it have effective date? How long the effective date can be?
Vkkpnm,
There will be a gap for sure after passing, probably step by step implementation just like Health care. The agencies will decide how long it might take to switch between current process to the new one.
In august all interfile cases will immediately be part of the demand as they would have to request visa for these cases, so even if they aren't approved right away they sure will be part in the DD for septemberQuote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I also think that many inter filers can get approved before the original EB2 cases.
any significant movement in September ( perhaps upto 6 months as some are predicting ) will likely result in few 2007 or earlier cases left over
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you for the compilation. Upward trend in IND certification could lead to longer wait times in coming years, assuming no relief through reforms in near future!
IND certifications were 41% and 52% of total certifications in FY2010 & FY2011 respectively.
if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.
Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.
Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.
Spec- With the PERM Posting data do you see any change in predictions. Based on Guru's(Matt, Spec,Q etc) earlier Prediction I see Mar 1, 2008 is realistic date in Sept Bulletin.
Do you want give us your thoughts.
This PERM data won't affect the Sep VB. it will help FY14 calculations though.Quote:
Originally Posted by coolvibe
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I'm not sure that is quite correct. The visa request is the very last action before approval i.e. the case is being adjudicated.
Come August 1, if a visa is requested for any case with a PD before Jan 1, 2009, then the PD will be Current, that visa will be immediately available and the case will be approved.
A number only remains in the Demand Data when the visa request is made and the visa is not immediately available.
If the case was not in the DD previously, it will never show in the DD if it is adjudicated when the PD is Current.
Clearly, if the case does not get adjudicated a visa request won't be made and the case won't appear in the DD either.
Only when the dates retrogress again will we see the cases left behind. Past history suggests they will trickle in over the course of several months.
It might be possible to see what the difference is between calculated approvals and the drop in the DD over the appropriate time period. The difference might be thought of as mainly porting cases that were not in the DD previously. Given there are also other factors, I'm not totally sold on that approach either. When the Visa Statistics are published for FY2013, a better estimate might be possible.