EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by EB22010Dec

Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

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Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?

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I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

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You think filing date will cross 2010 dec in next 6-9
Months ?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

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Thanks for the reinforcement. Working with the attorney for concurrent filing. Will keep updated about the progress.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

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Really Appreciate the response. Will talk to my employer and will do the needful to work with an attorney.

My PD is July29th, 2009 EB2. I have never been able to file EAD due to some poor circumstances. I was hoping i will be able to file 485 this year but now it seems that is a stretch. I am on fence to downgrade or not. Appreciate any advice.

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

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Originally Posted by kb2013

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

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This theory an outright bluff with no basis, only fear mongering. With 10 years delay, already it is easy for people in EB2 to fall prey for it. They don't want to torpedo their chances after waiting for long.

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Originally Posted by mar2010er

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

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Hi mar2010er

I will talk to my employer and get hold of our attorney today, hopefully.
Best of Luck!

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Originally Posted by AceMan

This theory an outright bluff with no basis, only fear mongering. With 10 years delay, already it is easy for people in EB2 to fall prey for it. They don't want to torpedo their chances after waiting for long.

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Thanks for the clarification. My attorney too did not hint at any such possibility. Wanted to make sure there was no such hidden rule. Have had pretty bad experiences with USCIS that one can leave no stone unturned.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Thanks for the clarification. My attorney too did not hint at any such possibility. Wanted to make sure there was no such hidden rule. Have had pretty bad experiences with USCIS that one can leave no stone unturned.

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Just watch out for clause where attorneys might say accept a lower pay grade. The company attorneys really work the best interests of companies not the candidate.

Thread carefully.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Thanks Spec for the data.
Only comment I would like to make is Philippines may not get 7,059 visas in FY19 as their backlogs got depleted and they are approaching to the current in EB3.
That will be a good opportunity for EB3India to get more than what they got in FY18.

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Out of curiosity, How come Philippines (also south Korea) allowed to use more than their quota, when they are not the most backlogged countries. This has been happening for years.

Hi, I have June 2010 PD in EB2. My lawyer is recommending to downgrade to EB3 first and then file I485 when the dates are current. Lawyer says concurrent filing puts I485 in jeopardy if the I140 amendment does not get approved. Any thoughts ?

Also, what is the current processing times for I140 amendment in regular processing ?

My first I140 was with Texas service center, considering i am with same employer/location, assuming the amendment will go to the same service center.

I see grand total in FY 18 is 363573 and EB is 139483 so family based only used 224090 out of possible 226000.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...bleV-Part3.pdf

Is EB going to receive a spill over of 1910 from FB in FY 19? if so, EB2 and EB3 receives a total of 54% of 1910 ~1011. If India being the most backlogged country in both EB2 and EB3, receives all 1011 additional spill over, will it make any relevance for EB2I and EB3I movement in FY 19? or ~1011 is very irrelevant for prediction calculations?

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Originally Posted by bluelabel

I see grand total in FY 18 is 363573 and EB is 139483 so family based only used 224090 out of possible 226000.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...bleV-Part3.pdf

Is EB going to receive a spill over of 1910 from FB in FY 19? if so, EB2 and EB3 receives a total of 54% of 1910 ~1011. If India being the most backlogged country in both EB2 and EB3, receives all 1011 additional spill over, will it make any relevance for EB2I and EB3I movement in FY 19? or ~1011 is very irrelevant for prediction calculations?

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September 2018 visa bulletin said- The fiscal year 2018 limit for Employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 140,292. It appears that we lost little over 800 visa's in EB category for FY18.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Just watch out for clause where attorneys might say accept a lower pay grade. The company attorneys really work the best interests of companies not the candidate.

Thread carefully.

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Sure. Thanks. Will do.

Hi Gurus - Question - I have an EB2 June PD I-140 with a prior employer and in the process of joining them back. However, with H1-B processing
taking considerable time, would I still be able to file I-485 if & when application date becomes current in EB3?

Can I have a pending H1-B application and still file I-485

Thanks

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

Hi Gurus - Question - I have an EB2 June PD I-140 with a prior employer and in the process of joining them back. However, with H1-B processing
taking considerable time, would I still be able to file I-485 if & when it application date becomes current in EB3?

Can I have a pending H1-B application and still file I-485

Thanks

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Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.

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Originally Posted by drop2ocean

Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.

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Just to let you know the reverse is not true though. If your dates are current, and are eligible to file I-485, H1B cannot be filed.

Before this administration made AOS interviews mandatory, how long would it take for an applicant to get GC after filing I-485 considering the PD was always current - let's say for someone in EB2ROW?

Now with interviews, delays are more than a year, which was the intention of this administration all along - to slow down immigration. With these huge delays, I am having a tough time trying to digest that we only lost some 800 GCs! If delays are so long, how did the GCs get allocated?

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Before this administration made AOS interviews mandatory, how long would it take for an applicant to get GC after filing I-485 considering the PD was always current - let's say for someone in EB2ROW?

Now with interviews, delays are more than a year, which was the intention of this administration all along - to slow down immigration. With these huge delays, I am having a tough time trying to digest that we only lost some 800 GCs! If delays are so long, how did the GCs get allocated?

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Where is this 800 GCs lost you are talking about? There are plenty of people waiting in line who don't need an interview. There is no possibility of GC wastage

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by drop2ocean

Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Just to let you know the reverse is not true though. If your dates are current, and are eligible to file I-485, H1B cannot be filed.

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Thanks! With H1-B approvals taking 6-9 months and with No premium processing due to shut down, wanted to make sure that was a possibility if opportunity arises.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Where is this 800 GCs lost you are talking about? There are plenty of people waiting in line who don't need an interview. There is no possibility of GC wastage

Iatiam

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Visa statistics show 139483 issued for 2018, the allocated number for 2018 was 140292 as shown in the September 2018 bulletin. Here we lost 809 visas.

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

Can anyone please explain this? Thank you.

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Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

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noticed ...where?

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Originally Posted by ferric

noticed ...where?

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Trackitt.. ‘waiting for biometric from October filers’ is the name of the thread

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Originally Posted by EB2/eb3

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

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Are they at least allowing I140 premium processing when downgrading ??
I read somewhere no premium processing for I140 in EB2->EB3 downgrade case.

That is correct. It has to do with no original PERM attached with the I140 case when you downgrade using the Perm that was filed during the earlier EB2.

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Congrats! Gives us hope. Enjoy your freedom

Iatiam

Many congratulations itsmusa. Good luck with your future journey!

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Very happy for you, enjoy your GC life/future endeavors and keep visiting this forum, :-)

Thank you all so much for your wishes (explicit or silent).

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Congratulations to you and your family.

Enjoy the GC life after waiting for long time

Congratulations. Hope you make the best out of it.

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Congratulations. Wish you the very best for your next phase of life after this long wait.
On an added note, this gives us that EB2 will move forward from the 1st April 2009 in this bulletin.

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Originally Posted by itsmusa

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

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Congratulations

My PD is Dec- 29- 2009 - EB2 , Filed for I-485 and EAD in 2012 when it became current then it retrogated . Approved EAD and I-485 Pending. I am currently H1B (NOT Using EAD) .

-Any chances of priority date to be current in 2019?
-Can I downgrade to EB3 or should I stay , welcome your suggestions.