EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Don't feel too bad about waste of time or effort. They hardly spend more than 10 mins on a EAD/AP application. They should have approved them ages ago. Plus USCIS keeps weaponizing COVID as an excuse to not do stuff. Yes, I do believe COVID played a part in slowing things down but from what I have heard, the USCIS Adjudicating Officers always have worked from home long before COVID. So while COVID may affect services like biometrics and interviews, it should have no impact on raising RFEs or adjudicating the applications.

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It could be that it is just 10 minutes spent on an EADP/AP application but if you factor in the time spent on generating EAD/AP letters, printing EAD/AP cards and mailing them out it is a lot of time, effort and money. And to think that they are doing this to thousands of documentarily qualified applicants who have been current for a few months - it is just criminal. Reminds me of an often told but possibly apocryphal story about Newton spending a lot of time to carve out a small hole for a cat's kittens when he had already carved a bigger hole for the cat.

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Originally Posted by dosaman

It could be that it is just 10 minutes spent on an EADP/AP application but if you factor in the time spent on generating EAD/AP letters, printing EAD/AP cards and mailing them out it is a lot of time, effort and money. And to think that they are doing this to thousands of documentarily qualified applicants who have been current for a few months - it is just criminal. Reminds me of an often told but possibly apocryphal story about Newton spending a lot of time to carve out a small hole for a cat's kittens when he had already carved a bigger hole for the cat.

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I agree with your sentiment, but I am just cautioning you in your line of thinking. You feel that those 10 mins could be spent processing a 485 application. My sentiment is that they decided to use those 10 mins doing something rather than wasting them doing nothing. How do I know that? When I tried to raise an expedited request for EAD with a potential job loss scenario (Thankfully things have worked out since on the job front) their response was does your spouse have a job and earn enough to pay for your bills? In short their attitude was unless you are on the streets begging for money, we can't be bothered to look into your case (even after 7 months of waiting at that time for the EAD). Dignity of an individual in a job loss scenario holds zero value to them. FYI they hardly sent out EADs to 30% of the applicants even after 9 months and as a trade off how many extra GCs did they approve compared to last FY till now?

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

I agree with your sentiment, but I am just cautioning you in your line of thinking. You feel that those 10 mins could be spent processing a 485 application. My sentiment is that they decided to use those 10 mins doing something rather than wasting them doing nothing. How do I know that? When I tried to raise an expedited request for EAD with a potential job loss scenario (Thankfully things have worked out since on the job front) their response was does your spouse have a job and earn enough to pay for your bills? In short their attitude was unless you are on the streets begging for money, we can't be bothered to look into your case (even after 7 months of waiting at that time for the EAD). Dignity of an individual in a job loss scenario holds zero value to them. FYI they hardly sent out EADs to 30% of the applicants even after 9 months and as a trade off how many extra GCs did they approve compared to last FY till now?

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Agree with you brother. They asked me same and I was shocked. What has my wife's job got to do with my job loss due to their inefficiency. EAD/AP is a scam. The process can be automated with checks and validations from online applying and all the way to printing/mailing of card especially for C9 categories. Heck, what does that human check in those 10 min. Is the I-485 still pending, last I-94 status and if the old EAD/AP card is expiring within 180 days? Any small scale IT company can create this system for them.

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

485 and EAD/AP application are processed separately. The officer processing EAD/AP application does not have visibly to when GC will be approved. Yes I agree its total waste of time and resource, USCIS should improve their approval process.

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Andharguy,

I submitted my Medicals and I-485J on Friday waiting for ack and approval.

Thanks,
Sree

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

485 and EAD/AP application are processed separately. The officer processing EAD/AP application does not have visibly to when GC will be approved. Yes I agree its total waste of time and resource, USCIS should improve their approval process.

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I submitted my RFE (medicals and I-485J) on 7/16/20201 and waiting for ack and response.

Thanks,
Sree

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

485 and EAD/AP application are processed separately. The officer processing EAD/AP application does not have visibly to when GC will be approved. Yes I agree its total waste of time and resource, USCIS should improve their approval process.

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Well, it may not mean much now. But last year around same time it was a big thing. BTW me and few friends in my circle have been seeing EAD approved since July 1st week.

Just watched Charlie's live youtube chat and it's bad news.

• EB Visa wastage this year will be around 100K
  
• Consequently filing dates for FY2022 are not expected to move significantly even if there is spillover from FB again, because those would be potentially used for the existing demand from FY2021's applications that will be still pending on Oct 1 2021. Charlie is seeing high demand from EB2 and EB3 from Oct filings. He responded to specific questions asking if 2017(definitely not) or 2016(most likely not) will be filing date current in Oct 2021.
  
• Dates will not be made current like in 2007 because back then there was lack of demand due to which Charlie made all the dates current to generate more demand, the difference this time is there is lot of pending demand with USCIS
  
• Due to increased FB demand, spillover is likely to be 150K and not higher like previously predicted.
  

Basically the people that have already filed in Oct 2021 and waiting have a second chance next FY. But USCIS may waste next years quota as well.

People with EB3 dates from 2015 and EB2 folks who were unable to downgrade this year will be pretty much screwed without even a chance for EAD/AP.

And all this assuming the new FB visas spillover this year. If they do not because of Grace's amendment that was approved by a subcommittee of the House, then a large percentage of Oct 2021 filers will not get a GC for a very long time.

Basically, the party is over and it's time to face the music.

All - please bear with the blog today as our hosting provider is undergoing their maintenance (nothing specific to our blog). Thank you for your patience.

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

I submitted my RFE (medicals and I-485J) on 7/16/20201 and waiting for ack and response.

Thanks,
Sree

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Does scanned copy of "signed" 485j and G325A good enough to reply to that RFE ?

(or)

Do we need to send the 485j and G325A RFE documents with original signatures?

Buddy All I can say is you are thinking too much and applying for logic where Laws of Logic has no chance just like Light near Black Hole.

So here are my responses as you put so much effort in framing your queries and I hate to see it going waste.

1. YES, date porting happens at I-140 stage
2. Thumb rule says higher the category, better chance of you getting GC. As mad rush of downgrade I would say go with EB2 with assumptions that after post-covid-spillover mad rush EB1 will be current and will give you spillovers. But its your call which category you feel comfortable assuming all things equal i.e age-out kids, job advancement/stability etc
3. I am exactly in same boat. Still wating for my BioMetric letter even thou my file is complete including Medicals since 2 months. So I will plead laws of logic and USCIS balck hole analogy i.e USCIS will giveth when the felt it
4. Too much calculation - read SPEC post here how spill-over Vertical and Horizontal works and go from there. If you believe vertical spillover is possible then EB2, Horizontal EB3 but keep in mind EB3 is super set of EB2 so it act as catch all
5/6/7/8 - Amendment pass - LOL. All I say is - I have a bridge here in SFO which is golden and I would like to sell. I have better chance of selling that bridge to someone then US Congress passing any immigration law

Settle in CA / OR / WA or CO - grass is really green here and relaxes you very well during these stressful times. You know what I mean ;)

Happy Waiting.

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Originally Posted by freedomseeker

Hello Experts,

I have been a silent spectator of this forum and I thank you all for the wealth of knowledge that you folks bring in here.

I have an approved I-140 with the Priority-Date of Aug-2011 from Employer-A. I moved to Employer-B in the mid of 2019 with the promise from them that my PERM will be started after a few months of employment. With all kind of the delays from the employer and the law-firm added with the COVID slowness, at-last I was able to get my PERM filed (for my Job-Position with 7 to 9 years of experience) by my current employer (Employer B) in this year March (03/2021). I am awaiting for the PERM approval in a month or two, should there be no any issues to my application from the DOL processing side.

During the time of my I140 filing, if the EB2 dates have not reached my Priority-Date and if the EB3 dates stay as they are now, I will NOT be eligible to file my I140 in the EB2 category and cn file ONLY in EB3 category. However if there were a situation in which my Priority-Date is current in both EB2 and EB3 at the time of my I140 filing which could be sometime in September or October this year, can you please clarify the following queries in such a situation?

1. Is it right that the porting of the Priority-Date from approved I-140 with the old employer happens ONLY in the I-140 filing stage with the new employer?

2. With my case being a Fresh-I140 one (NOT a I-140 downgrade) and if I do concurrent filing of Fresh-I140-PP & I-485, What would be the right category for me to file my I-140 (EB2 or EB3 - ?) to get the GC sooner?

3. I believe I should be able to get my fresh I-140 approved under PP in the 15 days timeframe unless any RFE kicks in. Also I could see comments from some of the experts in this forum that the EB3 filers with downgraded EB2 I-140 in/around my Priority-Date (Aug-2011) tend to get EAD/AP sooner with EB3 and GC sooner with EB2. How does that apply to my case with concurrent filing of fresh I140-PP and I-485?

4. With which category (EB2 or EB3 - ?), can I get the GC sooner if the dates happen to retrogress in the period Oct21-Sep22 or the year after?

5. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB2 if the new ammendment passes?

6. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB3 if the new ammendment passes?

7. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB2 if the new ammendment does NOT pass which allows the FB to EB spillover to happen next year?

8. What are the effects and impacts to my case with EB3 if the new ammendment does NOT pass which allows the FB to EB spillover to happen next year?


Regrets for the long content and help me with your expert inputs. Thank you!!

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Originally Posted by march1612

Does scanned copy of "signed" 485j and G325A good enough to reply to that RFE ?

(or)

Do we need to send the 485j and G325A RFE documents with original signatures?

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My Attorney asked me send signed copy of I-485J and G-328.

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

My Attorney asked me send signed copy of I-485J and G-328.

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My attorney is telling to just send a scanned signed copy. Is USCIS still accepting the scanned copies?

Hello All,
Hoping someone would answer this question based on the latest Chats with Charlie. My priority date is Aug 2015 and am not sure that I wanted to figure out next steps. Should I wait until Oct bulletin or I have no chance based on today's session ?

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Originally Posted by march1612

My attorney is telling to just send a scanned signed copy. Is USCIS still accepting the scanned copies?

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he is right, Please do what ever they are asking.

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Originally Posted by march1612

My attorney is telling to just send a scanned signed copy. Is USCIS still accepting the scanned copies?

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Please see:
USCIS Announces Flexibility in Submitting Required Signatures During COVID-19 National Emergency

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Originally Posted by korlakunta08

Andharguy,

I submitted my Medicals and I-485J on Friday waiting for ack and approval.

Thanks,
Sree

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@Sree - Good Luck on you GC waiting. I hope USCIS will speed up and approve more GC in last quarter.

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Originally Posted by kshetty20

Hello All,
Hoping someone would answer this question based on the latest Chats with Charlie. My priority date is Aug 2015 and am not sure that I wanted to figure out next steps. Should I wait until Oct bulletin or I have no chance based on today's session ?

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Pretty much no chance of FAD this year. Filing dates are discretionary and they could very well move dates all over the place simply to build more demand if not to generate more revenue.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Pretty much no chance of FAD this year. Filing dates are discretionary and they could very well move dates all over the place simply to build more demand if not to generate more revenue.

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From the Chat Reply in YouTube Channel:

Soumitra Bandyopadhyay 22 hours ago
Hi Charlie - do we expect that Oct 2021 will reach July 2014 specially when on Oct 2020 visa bulletin - it was published with application date Jan 2015?


U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs - 3 hours ago
It is assumed that your question is in relation to the India EB-3 Final Action Date. At this time we would not expect the India EB-3 final action date to reach July 2014 before November at the very earliest. The potential movement of any of the Employment final action dates will be hard to predict until it is clear what the FY 2022 Employment-based annual limit is likely to be.

Also, pertinent responses for what it's worth:


Mandeep Raj
1 day ago
Do you expect EB3 filing dates to advance in October based on spill over from family and other sources?


U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs
8 hours ago
It is likely that the EB-3 Application Filing Dates will be advanced no later than November. The amount of such movement will be dependent upon several factors, among them whether the proposed legislative action to ?recapture? unused FY 2020 and/or 2021 numbers were to pass.


Ketan Dixit
1 day ago
As more and more EB3 India to EB2 India downgrades are processed, is Charlies expecting retrogression in EB3-India dates?


U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs
8 hours ago
No. By monitoring number use patterns, and limiting the forward movement of the Final Action Date for a particular preference category we always attempt to avoid the need for such a retrogression. Should such actions not have the desired impact on number use versus the annual limit, any retrogression would typically be delayed as long as possible preferably for August and/or September. Whenever such corrective action to a Final Action Date is required the goal, and typical action, is to have a full recovery to the original date for October under the new fiscal year?s annual limit.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Pretty much no chance of FAD this year. Filing dates are discretionary and they could very well move dates all over the place simply to build more demand if not to generate more revenue.

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Thanks for your reply. I am hoping to at least have the ability to file I-485 in Oct 2021 but based on what Charlie mentioned, will have to see what Sep bulletin looks like

Just noticed that the law firms extended the date to join their lawsuit (by Siskind and other firms). Does anyone know what the reason was? If you have joined the lawsuit, can you please share any communication/reasons you may have received for the reason for delay? I am thinking about joining as there has been no progress on my case...just the receipt notices from Feb 11 for 485/765/131/140 (concurrent EB2-EB3 downgrade).

https://www.visalaw.com/indian-and-c...status-delays/

This forum and it's members have been amazing in the quality of information shared and support given and I personally have learned a lot. So wanted to get your thoughts on the below scenario.

One of my colleagues got both his and his wife's 485 online status changed today to - New Card Is Being Produced. His PD is Feb 2011 and his date became current on July 01. He did not file 485 with medicals in Oct 2020 (our lawyers did not allow it) and so was waiting for RFE. Has anyone else got their GC approved without submitting medicals ? What should he do in this scenario ? If this was an USCIS error, then what should be the next steps in rectifying it ?

Also, interesting thing is he actually completed his medicals last week and has his sealed envelopes and was waiting for a RFE to turn them in. Is there even a remote possibility that the Civil Surgeon could have sent the same information online to USCIS or update any online medicals system stating that medicals is completed since they do collect the A number ?

This forum and it's members have been amazing in the quality of information shared and support given and I personally have learned a lot. So wanted to get your thoughts on the below scenario.

One of my colleagues got both his and his wife's 485 online status changed today to - New Card Is Being Produced. His PD is Feb 2011 and his date became current on July 01. He did not file 485 with medicals in Oct 2020 (our lawyers did not allow it) and so was waiting for RFE. Has anyone else got their GC approved without submitting medicals ? What should he do in this scenario ? If this was an USCIS error, then what should be the next steps in rectifying it ?

Also, interesting thing is he actually completed his medicals last week and has his sealed envelopes and was waiting for a RFE to turn them in. Is there even a remote possibility that the Civil Surgeon could have sent the same information online to USCIS or update any online medicals system stating that medicals is completed since they do collect the A number ?

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Originally Posted by userksp

This forum and it's members have been amazing in the quality of information shared and support given and I personally have learned a lot. So wanted to get your thoughts on the below scenario.

One of my colleagues got both his and his wife's 485 online status changed today to - New Card Is Being Produced. His PD is Feb 2011 and his date became current on July 01. He did not file 485 with medicals in Oct 2020 (our lawyers did not allow it) and so was waiting for RFE. Has anyone else got their GC approved without submitting medicals ? What should he do in this scenario ? If this was an USCIS error, then what should be the next steps in rectifying it ?

Also, interesting thing is he actually completed his medicals last week and has his sealed envelopes and was waiting for a RFE to turn them in. Is there even a remote possibility that the Civil Surgeon could have sent the same information online to USCIS or update any online medicals system stating that medicals is completed since they do collect the A number ?

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One has to submit the I-693 in a sealed envelope to USCIS. I don't think USCIS allows "Back to the Future" type technologies such as PDF or electronic signatures.

First wait to see subsequent updates and make sure that it is not a system glitch. Wait till you actually receive the Welcome letter and Card in hand. As a reference I got a false CPO status in 2012.

I have heard about cases where GC was approved when the PD is not FA current. If it is an extreme case (say your PD is way off for approval), I would advise you to report to USCIS and get it corrected. The process of returing GC is a messy thing as the system already updated you as LPR with CPO. To go back will be a mess.

As your FA date is current, I suspect that it might be a real CPO and not a system glitch. If you have an attorney, talk to them.

My advise would be to interfile the medical report for primary and derivatives (as you have them readily available). See my post for sample interfile letter format. Keep it simple, no need to say you are a LPR, just send the interfile request letter the day you receive the card in hand. Keep the records, copy of the interfile letter and proof of delivery. The complete history will be in A# file and USCIS will look at it at time of Naturalization. You acting in good faith will help. Then enjoy your GC.

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Originally Posted by idliman

One has to submit the I-693 in a sealed envelope to USCIS. I don't think USCIS allows "Back to the Future" type technologies such as PDF or electronic signatures.

First wait to see subsequent updates and make sure that it is not a system glitch. Wait till you actually receive the Welcome letter and Card in hand. As a reference I got a false CPO status in 2012.

I have heard about cases where GC was approved when the PD is not FA current. If it is an extreme case (say your PD is way off for approval), I would advise you to report to USCIS and get it corrected. The process of returing GC is a messy thing as the system already updated you as LPR with CPO. To go back will be a mess.

As your FA date is current, I suspect that it might be a real CPO and not a system glitch. If you have an attorney, talk to them.

My advise would be to interfile the medical report for primary and derivatives (as you have them readily available). See my post for sample interfile letter format. Keep it simple, no need to say you are a LPR, just send the interfile request letter the day you receive the card in hand. Keep the records, copy of the interfile letter and proof of delivery. The complete history will be in A# file and USCIS will look at it at time of Naturalization. You acting in good faith will help. Then enjoy your GC.

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Idliman, thanks for the sensible advice. I will pass it along to my colleague (he is in contact with our lawyers as well). Having waited for such a long time, it is such a nightmare to get the GC in hand only to return it and get it re-issued. So in your case in 2012, after you got the CPO status, did it again go back to Fingerprint Complete ? Also, was yours also CPO without medicals or after you submitted medicals ?

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Originally Posted by userksp

Idliman, thanks for the sensible advice. I will pass it along to my colleague (he is in contact with our lawyers as well). Having waited for such a long time, it is such a nightmare to get the GC in hand only to return it and get it re-issued. So in your case in 2012, after you got the CPO status, did it again go back to Fingerprint Complete ? Also, was yours also CPO without medicals or after you submitted medicals ?

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If it is a system glitch, it will go back to the previous status. Don't remember what it was.
I don't think your friend has to return GC. I would just interfile medical in good faith on the same day or next day, just before you had a chance to look at the delivered envelope.

IMO: Most likely if it is a normal attorney, they will advise him to keep the GC and forget everything. If the attorney is charging high billing rates to the company, they will call USCIS and then interfile. Let us know what the attorney advice was.

Sure Idliman, will keep everyone updated ! Our lawyers are one of the big immigration firms... So they might take action as you suggested :)

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Originally Posted by userksp

Sure Idliman, will keep everyone updated ! Our lawyers are one of the big immigration firms... So they might take action as you suggested :)

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By high billing rates, I really meant it. As an example, I recently came to know that *REMOVED LAWFIRM NAME* firm charged *REMOVED COMPANY* 18K for a H1B application.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

Also, pertinent responses for what it's worth:


Mandeep Raj
1 day ago
Do you expect EB3 filing dates to advance in October based on spill over from family and other sources?


U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs
8 hours ago
It is likely that the EB-3 Application Filing Dates will be advanced no later than November. The amount of such movement will be dependent upon several factors, among them whether the proposed legislative action to ?recapture? unused FY 2020 and/or 2021 numbers were to pass.


Ketan Dixit
1 day ago
As more and more EB3 India to EB2 India downgrades are processed, is Charlies expecting retrogression in EB3-India dates?


U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs
8 hours ago
No. By monitoring number use patterns, and limiting the forward movement of the Final Action Date for a particular preference category we always attempt to avoid the need for such a retrogression. Should such actions not have the desired impact on number use versus the annual limit, any retrogression would typically be delayed as long as possible preferably for August and/or September. Whenever such corrective action to a Final Action Date is required the goal, and typical action, is to have a full recovery to the original date for October under the new fiscal year?s annual limit.

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Saw many questions answered about EB3, but hardly any about EB2.

Does anybody have any idea from Charlie's comments about EB2 date movements (for FAD or FD) ?

EB2 Feb 2012 here and wondering whether to downgrade.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

Saw many questions answered about EB3, but hardly any about EB2.

Does anybody have any idea from Charlie's comments about EB2 date movements (for FAD or FD) ?

EB2 Feb 2012 here and wondering whether to downgrade.

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Charlie has insinuated in the call that even the filing dates will not move as aggressively as it was moved last year because of already existing demand. He further said, the filing dates in September bulletin should give you a fairly good idea about the FDs in October. So do what you will with this information. For your question, it can be answered either way. No one can say with certainty one way is right over the other. Do what feels right to you.

https://hilites.today/uscis_cases/dashboard

This shows 2,600+ I-485 applications approved in last 3 days.. Looks like USCIS is picking up pace.

Greencardly seems more accurate than the hilites. for some of the july and june date the approved numbers on hilites is very low.

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Originally Posted by ImmiGiveMe

Greencardly seems more accurate than the hilites. for some of the july and june date the approved numbers on hilites is very low.

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Never mind. I think I figured out what it is. Greencardly gives approved GCs per day. If you look at hilites it only has all receipt notices generated in 21. Nevertheless it is good news that more recent applications are getting some traction.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Never mind. I think I figured out what it is. Greencardly gives approved GCs per day. If you look at hilites it only has all receipt notices generated in 21. Nevertheless it is good news that more recent applications are getting some traction.

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The average is north of 2.5k/day over the last few days. that's a very good sign I think. Hope this pace stays for some time.

IS there a way to differentiate between an FB vs EB I-485 based on receipt number?

Idliman, we use the same firm but have no idea about their billing rates and the amount you mentioned is mind boggling... No wonder why the firms would like us to remain in H1B as long as possible.

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Originally Posted by userksp

Idliman, we use the same firm but have no idea about their billing rates and the amount you mentioned is mind boggling... No wonder why the firms would like us to remain in H1B as long as possible.

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Hi userkp,

I see that you responded your RFE within a week. Is that medical RFE and if yes, did you use your company attorney firm or did it all by yourself. I got my med RFE but I am worried that if I go thtough my company atyorney, that will unnecessarily delay the response as they take their own sweet time.

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Originally Posted by delguy

Hi userkp,

I see that you responded your RFE within a week. Is that medical RFE and if yes, did you use your company attorney firm or did it all by yourself. I got my med RFE but I am worried that if I go thtough my company atyorney, that will unnecessarily delay the response as they take their own sweet time.

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Hi delguy, yes, the RFE was for medicals for me and my spouse. I did get in touch with my company's lawyers to check if I needed to send it to them or respond myself and they said that it's up to me. Since it was only medicals which is anyways in a sealed envelope, I sent the sealed medicals & a copy of my RFE to the address mentioned in the RFE myself. If the RFE were for additional materials, then I guess a lawyer review is beneficial.

If it's only medicals, I would say send it back yourself and save time. Did you get your RFE from NBC or your local FO ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by userksp

Hi delguy, yes, the RFE was for medicals for me and my spouse. I did get in touch with my company's lawyers to check if I needed to send it to them or respond myself and they said that it's up to me. Since it was only medicals which is anyways in a sealed envelope, I sent the sealed medicals & a copy of my RFE to the address mentioned in the RFE myself. If the RFE were for additional materials, then I guess a lawyer review is beneficial.

If it's only medicals, I would say send it back yourself and save time. Did you get your RFE from NBC or your local FO ?

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Thanks for the quick response. I got it from local FO where the case was transfered from MSC recently. So I assume you put both yours and spouse medicals in one envelope though 1 RFR for each is generated. Is their any cover letter needed too?

Hi All,

My PD is Jul6th 2010 in EB2, I got Medical RFE and Interview Notice on June 27th. I heard lot of people are getting interview waiver and green card approved after Medicals RFE. Is USCIS issuing interview notices recently or is it random....like my case. My spouse last name and mine are different and I work for a consulting company.

Also, do we need to take Original Brith certificate for interview?

Thanks!!!