EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Maybe several months later Mr CO will bull shit again: after careful
examination and data collection, we find the total number of applications is
way bigger than our original estimation in January. Therefore, we have to
retrogress the EB2 category to 2007.

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Originally Posted by vgraj1

This is old news now.

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I dont think anyone has used the word "confirmed" up to now. Its been speculative. So the fact that Murthy has put out something like this is promising.

interpolation from CO's talk to AILA:

1. monthly visa number 45%/5=9%
2. quarterly visa number=9%*3=27%.
3. by 1/19/2012, he used 34% quota, in this month we have 4*9%-34%=2% quota left, maybe that's why the approval of EB2 is slowing down.

Looks like he is allocating exactly 27% quota now. Again this guy excutes immigration law based on his personal understanding. In the past several years he never excuted 27% rule. Now this is the first time to have 27% quarter quota after being pushed by several immigration organizations.

If CO had followed the 27% rule last year, the people with PD 2006.5-2006.8 should have received their GC 10 months earlier than their actual received date.

I saw a lot of discrepancy in the operation of this system. It's unfair to many folks!

Yes, you are exactly right. I think all these stories are made up because they need excuces to move PD forward.

I am glad many folks get a opportunity to get EAD/AP. I hope all of us can get out of this dark hole as soon as possible!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Maybe several months later Mr CO will bull shit again: after careful
examination and data collection, we find the total number of applications is
way bigger than our original estimation in January. Therefore, we have to
retrogress the EB2 category to 2007.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

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I don't want to speak on behalf of everyone here but I think retrogression is a foregone conclusion here. Question is how far back will it go. Is it 2007? or Q1 2008 as some on here have suggested.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0124-Musillo.shtm

Confirmation of forward movement.

Again, the six month number is an AILA prediction and not quoted words of Mr. CO.

Agree. Temporarily it can retro to where ever. Again that too will be discretionary. However the dates must bounce back to Q1 2008 around Sep 2012.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I don't want to speak on behalf of everyone here but I think retrogression is a foregone conclusion here. Question is how far back will it go. Is it 2007? or Q1 2008 as some on here have suggested.

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http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...nuary-19-2012/

Another confirmation of forward movement in March 2012 bulletin. This talks about holding the dates for a few months before retrogressing them.

All of them say six months is possible.

While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?

Our lawyer asked us to write our names, it was in a specific way, dont remember if it was last name, first name or first name last name. We wrote our names as asked.

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Originally Posted by tendlya

While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, you are exactly right. I think all these stories are made up because they need excuces to move PD forward.

I am glad many folks get a opportunity to get EAD/AP. I hope all of us can get out of this dark hole as soon as possible!

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One other thing to make a note is revenue requitement to USCIS for FY-2012, especially Q1 PERM data shows very few certifications whichmeans fewer ROW-M-P new filings!

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Originally Posted by tendlya

While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

Our lawyer asked us to write our names, it was in a specific way, dont remember if it was last name, first name or first name last name. We wrote our names as asked.

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i had to write name and DOB at the back.

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

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Originally Posted by bangaloreboy

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

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Chances are high, you will be current in Mar bulletin.

The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bangaloreboy

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

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The past few bulletin pattern is first of the month. You have high chances.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bangaloreboy

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

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Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

Kanmani, Your are definitely an "oracle" , you have tons of documents to refer, wish you are my attorney .

Thanks for the info, Kanmani.

They should just make to 22nd of that month all the time.. it really hurts when you see your "month" and not the "day" becoming current...

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Originally Posted by greenercard

Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

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I am a Dec filer, travelled 2 days after my app reached them. I did not get any notice before I left the US. I came back after a month and everything has been fine so far (had to reschedule my finger printing appt., though). Hopefully, I should not have any issues, in future. I think if you have a valid stamp, you should not have any problems at re-entry. But it is totally your call.

Thanks to gkjppp, Feb262009 and especially Kanmani (for the definitive DoS document on cut off dates)...

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Originally Posted by greenercard

Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

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Not answering your question but Fragomen told me (last week) that my app would be going in "before Jan 27". My PD is Aug 2008. So maybe I'll hear something tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

We have experienced people here Qesehmk, Spectator, Veni, Teddy,Nishant and valuable others who have contributed and compiled piles of information .

...

Friends and Newbies please cleanup the thread by deleting the thanks posts after they are seen .

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Kanmani, dont forget yourself! You have been of great help to a good deal of people.

Notes of thanks is one thing we should rather keep. It motivates the person who helped as well as others feel motivated to help each other. After all this is a collaborative forum. All the best.

Thanks. I assumed coming back into US wouldn't be a problem. I thought I heard somewhere that if you leave the country, it would be considered that I abandoned the application?

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Originally Posted by mysati

I am a Dec filer, travelled 2 days after my app reached them. I did not get any notice before I left the US. I came back after a month and everything has been fine so far (had to reschedule my finger printing appt., though). Hopefully, I should not have any issues, in future. I think if you have a valid stamp, you should not have any problems at re-entry. But it is totally your call.

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http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

On page 10 it says, your application is not considered abandoned if you have a valid H,L,V orK3/K4 visa.

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Originally Posted by srisri

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

On page 10 it says, your application is not considered abandoned if you have a valid H,L,V orK3/K4 visa.

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I am reposting this to make sure better understanding.

The law says one should be physically present inside US to adjust status from non-immigrant to immigrant . You have to prove yourself that you were physically inside while applying for AOS. The process of applying is completed only after the application is received by the uscis . proof? receipt !

srisri

Page 10 of I-485 instructions refers to travel after applying AOS. But most of our members are discussing about travel after posting the I-485 package to USCIS.

Hi Gurus,
My employer and their attorney is taking care of my petition. For my two dependents the same attorney is asking 6K to file I-485, I-131 and I-765 (excluding the USCIS fee). Just to save that money, I was thinking if I can file those forms for my dependents by myself once my I-485, I-131 and I-765 gets approved, Can I do that? I mean is it possible to file for my dependents after my approvals. Can you please explain the process.
Thanks,
Sug

You can certainly file yourself now if the dates are current. Waiting till you receive your own GC makes it complicated actually. There is a rule called "follow to join" for spouse where a spouse can arrive in US after the principal applicant gets approved and then the spouse files for "follow to join" which allows the spouse to enjoy same PD and preference as the principal one.

I would imagine the same should be true for dependents. However i am not sure. The worst case is dependents do not enjoy same PD as principal and are categorized under FB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sugada

Hi Gurus,
My employer and their attorney is taking care of my petition. For my two dependents the same attorney is asking 6K to file I-485, I-131 and I-765 (excluding the USCIS fee). Just to save that money, I was thinking if I can file those forms for my dependents by myself once my I-485, I-131 and I-765 gets approved, Can I do that? I mean is it possible to file for my dependents after my approvals. Can you please explain the process.
Thanks,
Sug

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Just wanted to share the good news. Both me and wife received all the 4 emails wrt EAD/AP Approvals. I guess, now we will need to wait for the GC Approval...finally freedom!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I am reposting this to make sure better understanding.

The law says one should be physically present inside US to adjust status from non-immigrant to immigrant . You have to prove yourself that you were physically inside while applying for AOS. The process of applying is completed only after the application is received by the uscis . proof? receipt !

srisri

Page 10 of I-485 instructions refers to travel after applying AOS. But most of our members are discussing about travel after posting the I-485 package to USCIS.

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I agree about the receipt. My lawyer said that I need to leave only after the receipt date. Your receipt date is usually the day after your file reaches USCIS unless it is a weekend (i.e.) if your file reaches them on the first, second is the receipt date (unless second is a weekend) and you can leave on or after the third. But USCIS may send the notice on the fifth or later (and you need not wait for this, to leave the US).

Again these are nuances and may be open to interpretations. Better to avoid travel unless it is absolutely necessary. I will go with what my lawyer says as they have been processing my case since the days of my F1 to H1 conversion.

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Originally Posted by tometukuri

Just wanted to share the good news. Both me and wife received all the 4 emails wrt EAD/AP Approvals. I guess, now we will need to wait for the GC Approval...finally freedom!

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Hearty Congratulations to you and your family!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

If your move is permanent I think it may be an issue from USCIS perspective. If you employer is willing to say its a temporary move then its not an issue.

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Q.. Could you please elaborate??

arikepudi's case seems like a classic consulting case wherein you move from one client site to another client site (same employer). The duration of the move is dependent on the duration of the project.
How do you define a temporary move or a permanent move?

I think if its a client project related move then by definition it is a temporary move since you may be employed by the employer at a particular employer location from administrative purposes and then you travel to client site as needed.

So your 140 should anyway have the location of the employer office. So I don't think that's a cause of concern. But if the move is to another office of the same employer then the question is - whether it is a temp move or a permanent move.

Even then as long as the employer is willing to say - the job mentioned in 140 is still available whenever 485 is approved and the beneficiary will take up that job in future after approval - there is no harm in any such move.

p.s. - a temp move could be a 6 month move to another office of hte same employer. A permanent would be 12 months or longer IMHO.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Q.. Could you please elaborate??

arikepudi's case seems like a classic consulting case wherein you move from one client site to another client site (same employer). The duration of the move is dependent on the duration of the project.
How do you define a temporary move or a permanent move?

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Hi qeshmk,

Do you any idea about how much time does it take for "follow to join" applicant to get GC? Correct me if I am wrong, follow to join applies to people who get there GC approved and then got married to a person outside US.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

You can certainly file yourself now if the dates are current. Waiting till you receive your own GC makes it complicated actually. There is a rule called "follow to join" for spouse where a spouse can arrive in US after the principal applicant gets approved and then the spouse files for "follow to join" which allows the spouse to enjoy same PD and preference as the principal one.

I would imagine the same should be true for dependents. However i am not sure. The worst case is dependents do not enjoy same PD as principal and are categorized under FB.

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Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...undtable6.shtm

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USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months. Long pending applications and petitions are being reviewed on issues, such as: the job offer, changes in derivative beneficiaries, up-to-date biometrics, and needed additional evidence. SCOPS is working with the USCIS Lockboxes to ensure that they have the capacity to accept large numbers of filings, coordinating with the Application Support Centers to ensure that they are ready for increased numbers of biometric appointments, and working with the service centers to ensure that ancillary applications for advance parole and employment authorization are adjudicated in a timely manner. SCOPS also will monitor the number of incoming receipts to better coordinate with DOS.

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Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

EB2 I think it also applies to situation when the prmary applicant has already applied for 485 and then gets married before 485 is adjudicated.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi qeshmk,

Do you any idea about how much time does it take for "follow to join" applicant to get GC? Correct me if I am wrong, follow to join applies to people who get there GC approved and then got married to a person outside US.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Does this include dependents? I think not. With the dependent factor, you are looking at 36K applications...still quite low.

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USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months.

Could it mean that the dates would continue to move until the DD shows 14-18k??

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Does this include dependents? I think not.

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That's a good question. When they use a term like i-485 application, does it mean 'application for a visa number' or can 1 485 application result in multiple visas? It can I guess.

So following up on that, I am looking at the reports at http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Can anyone please clarify 1) if these reports are just for the field offices or include NSC and TSC as well? Some of the numbers are quite low. So 2) Does this report numbers include dependents as well or is it just primary?

Thank you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...undtable6.shtm



Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

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KD thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder based on the link you posted earlier EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast on Trackitt, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

KD thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder based on the link you posted earlier EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast on Trackitt, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

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Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you. :)

The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.