EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Request a recommendation for my situation.
PD is Jan 2010. Due to some clerical error and confusion with USCIS, 485 filed in 2012 was denied in 2013 and 2 years of appeal did not work.
Changed company in 2013, right before the 485 denial.
New company extended H1B and filed I-140 in EB2.
Now that filing date is current for me in EB3, attorney is willing to file EB3 I-140 and 485 concurrent filing, but have indicated they will not switch back and forth. So I will need to move to the EB3 queue permanently if they apply EB3 I-140.
Analyses and numbers appear to indicate low demand in EB3 and EB3 FAD is likely to move ahead fast.
Any unknowns that I need to take into consideration?
Should I take the plunge and switch to EB3?

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No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

EB3 stopped getting anything from EB2 when USCIS were forced to prioritize horizontal spillover over vertical. So yes this is true after about 2009/2008 timeframe.

p.s- Technically EB3 ROW did receive some EB2 visas a few years back for S Korea. That was outrageous and illegal but as always there wasn't much outcry over that.

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Hello Q,
How credible are the pending inventory reports? The three reports which were published in 18 had numbers all over the place. What is your personal opinion about Julys report?

Instead of using USCIS report, With available data can we formulate pending inventory?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.

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Thanks!, for the advice. Will do. Been binge reading forums recently. We will likely be 2 less from the EB2 queue if all goes well.

Hi Q/Spec,

Do you guys think that EB2I dates are slated to move anytime soon? I have been waiting for my dates to get current for last 2 months and they are stuck at April 1st 2009. Mine is April 3rd. I am really anxious and miss going to India. I have been waiting to get this GC first before booking tix to india. Please throw some light. Greatly appreciate all you guys have done over ther years on this forum.

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

Hello Q,
How credible are the pending inventory reports? The three reports which were published in 18 had numbers all over the place. What is your personal opinion about Julys report?

Instead of using USCIS report, With available data can we formulate pending inventory?

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They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.

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Aceman - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

Here are my additional 2 cents to Spec's wonderful answer.

The 485 inventory never was quite reliable. However now it is all the more unreliable because it only represents service centers and USCIS has again started old ways of keeping cases at field USCIS offices.

Having said that I do think it still is better to have incomplete picture than no picture.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

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Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Hi Q/Spec,

Do you guys think that EB2I dates are slated to move anytime soon? I have been waiting for my dates to get current for last 2 months and they are stuck at April 1st 2009. Mine is April 3rd. I am really anxious and miss going to India. I have been waiting to get this GC first before booking tix to india. Please throw some light. Greatly appreciate all you guys have done over ther years on this forum.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

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Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

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Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

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Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

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Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

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How did China get 4312 in EB3 when their date is more advanced than India's EB3? Also Phillipines got 6588 in EB3 but I assume that is because they used less in category 1 and 2.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

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This should clear up to end of June 2009. Assumes zero porting, zero down grades.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by delguy

How did China get 4312 in EB3 when their date is more advanced than India's EB3? Also Phillipines got 6588 in EB3 but I assume that is because they used less in category 1 and 2.

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Some poster had predicted this last year. Because there was interview mandate and Eb3-I inventory (that did not need interviews) got exhausted, the beneficiary was China EB3.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

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EB2 got 601 more visas for FY 2018 and India got 1292 more than allocated 2804.
I think the 600 extra visas, EB2 got was because of interview mandate and Eb1, EB3 unable to meet the numbers. This may not be the case in FY 2019.

So you think we may receive more than 1292 SO visas this FY?

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

So you think we may receive more than 1292 SO visas this FY?

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It all depends on EB2 demand from ROW. Nothing from EB1, only horizontal for FY 2019. Too difficult to predict, 4000-5000 might be best case for EB2 I

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

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No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972

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Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!

Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.

Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972

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Not too bad considering we are out of the days of retrogression. And no more porting and potential slow down in EB1C filings as well. Once we get over the May and June 2009 bumps the flow show be more straigtforward.

Iatiam

I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

It all depends on EB2 demand from ROW. Nothing from EB1, only horizontal for FY 2019. Too difficult to predict, 4000-5000 might be best case for EB2 I

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I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.

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Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here.

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Thanks Spec for the data.
Only comment I would like to make is Philippines may not get 7,059 visas in FY19 as their backlogs got depleted and they are approaching to the current in EB3.
That will be a good opportunity for EB3India to get more than what they got in FY18.

I have a question outside the topic of this thread and admin can delete this or move this once I have gotten a reply but I feel this is the place which can give me the correct answer as many of the old timers were once on pending AOS status and had EAD/AP themselves.

My question is: What happens to I-94 when we move to pending AOS? Unless I leave the country and re-enter using the AP, what happens to the I-94?

Pretty disappointed that EB2I Sep 2009 keeps getting pushed to next fiscal year. Started hoping in 2014 then 2016 then 2017 then 2018 then 2019 now 2020.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972

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True.
Also from FY 19, the true down graders from EB2 will come into play, once the EB3 dates move past May 2010. Currently we have very limited people who are on the fence waiting for what happens with other people who are porting.

EB2 PD dec 2009, no EAD or 485 filed ever - should I downgrade ASAP or wait for concurrent 140/485 so that I can get EAD if PD becomes current in the coming months final action date?

Thanks much anyways, and for everything over the years.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.

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Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!

Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.

Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?

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Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

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Thank you Spec and Q.


This means inventory report is just of nonuse for prediction.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

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Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

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Hello SK - My PD is Dec 2010 as well, I am very less optimistic of dates moving beyond that date in the next 2 - 3 years. Why do you think it would be the case?

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Originally Posted by mjaggu

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

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Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

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Originally Posted by mjaggu

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

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Don't wait for FAD. Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

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I know you missed the AOS filing during 2015 fiasco. probably it was happened for a reason.. now you are in a better position to downgrade and get the GC faster. good luck to you for this time.