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I am in similar situation. I am going to ask company's attory abt premium process. This is what one of the lawyer suggested on youtube discussion: 1st file i140 in regular process. once you receive receipt notice then convert to premium process. Becoz USCIS will not do premium process when we file I40 with old PERM and they could reject premium. Let me know if you hear anything from your side.
We are dealing here with agencies which are in general very hostile. Anything positive to expect in the long run is futile IMHO :(Quote:
Originally Posted by BigAnt
Jonty,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Check the Issue# 5 & 6 from this source:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-h...proval-webber/
If I understood correctly the above link:
It is NOT guaranteed that USCIS will accept your filing of the downgrade petition with premium. Same case with concurrent filing of 485 with 140, assuming that your Eb2I PD is current in EB3I.
Alternate approach may be a 3 step process:
1) File 140 with out premium
2) Upgrade it to premium separately once you get the receipt notice (Not guaranteed in downgrade case but it worked per the above link)
3) File 485 once you get the 140 approval
looks like a lengthy process but can be timed to a 2 month time line to complete the filing process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigAnt
My assessment was based on the information at that time. CO's being the boss of DHS, has lot of additional information compared to rest of us in the forum. So his prediction definitely over rides mine :p.
I think CO will be holding on both EB3 dates behind EB2 for a little while more before they are ready to receive the avalanche of down grades. Even if USCIS is not respecting the FD, I think CO will still forward the FD.
Interestingly for EB3 India we are not seeing any GC approvals beyond May 2008 which was current in the May 2018 bulletin. This would imply the lead time from current to getting the GC is still over 6 months.
It took 5 months for me in the first half of this year for just the PERM approval. Another two or three months before that for PWD and a month or so for advertisements. its a year before you file I-140.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas111
Even after your date is current, EAD approval takes 6-8 months now at NBC.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447
Good read for holidays... nice compilation of all the publicly available data points for measuring backlogs.
But I don't see any new data point in this doc.. I've considered all the data point sources listed in this doc in my predictions so far..
Looks like 2019 is going to be a roller coaster ride for where the EB3 would get ahead of EB2 causing a huge spike in downgrades. At that point EB3 would be choked up again and EB2 would benefit, this would eventually result in an equilibrium where EB2 and EB3 are neck-to-neck and there is no real benefit to port up or down. This equilibrium date would depend on how fast the EB2 downgrades to EB3.
Expert, could someone take a stab to share their prediction on what that equilibrium date might be? This (even a rough range) would be a very valuable yard stick for a lot of folks to decide what to do.
* EB3 final action date would go to Apr 2010 in few month.
* From May 2010 onwards , there would be lot of porting as EB2 folks never filed i485 and they will do downgrade to EB3 and concurrent i485. That make sense.
* EB2 folks who has already applied EAD, might already moved to different employer. So there is no option for them to downgrade until they start from PERM. That would take another 2 year. so no use
My guess is EB2 folks who applied uptil May 2010 during 2012 period, would be struck for next 4 years. Lot of chances for EB2 folks who has priority date from May 2010. They can benifit immediatley due to EB3 movement.
True, it is going to be Simple Harmonic Motion.. once EB3 will go fast... then EB2... so on and so forth. The questions is which priority dates will get to file 485.. whether in EB3 or in EB2.
The benefit will be for EAD only.. Actual GCs allocation, who knowsQuote:
Originally Posted by hiperm
May 30 2009 PD EB2. What is the prediction ?Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
If they clear till the end of April 2009 this year May 2009 should be cleared by the end of next year 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by infotalk
Happy new year guys. Lets hope for the first time EB filers in both 2 and 3 from this decade start getting their GC this year onwards.
Happy New Year !!! Yes I hope all Eb2 INDIA and EB3 INDIA move significantly so everyone can benefit. Having said that did you check the USCIS Visa Bulletin Info: Does this mean they already have inventory Data and not publishing them?
For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for January 2019. Based on current trends in inventory and visa use, USCIS anticipates that applicants in the employment-based preference categories will have to use the Final Action Dates chart as soon as February 2019.
The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.
What is the reason?
Could you please explain?
< >
Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible
Thanks for replyingQuote:
Originally Posted by swordfish380
So last year there was no SO for EB2. How much SO is needed to clear August 2009?
April 2009 has ~650 applications. Do you think they have already approved ~2200 applications in the first quarter? I was hoping we would get to mid May to end of May by end of FY2019. Not possible?Quote:
Originally Posted by swordfish380
Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
For calendar year 2009 we had 10831 people in EB2 I by the last demand data in July 2018. The last quarter of FY 18 would have cleared around 800 +(assumption)
April , May 2009 got about 2840 which might take the entire year if there is no SO.
I factored in we might get about 2000 SO, and hence mentioned August 2009 for FY 2019 end.
However the movement for EB2 in the 2nd quarter did not materialize in January 19 bulletin. That would be the reason why Swordfish reduced his outlook. I think he meant May 2009 in 2019. 2020 looks like a typo.
Thank you Aceman. So it’s all down to SO -otherwise I am probably looking at 2021
I will take it yearly. We might still get some SO from EB2-ROW for FY 19.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
So let’s assume April, May 2009 are cleared in 2019, how many are waiting for June, July and August,2009? I want to get an idea if there is no spillover-how long this wait goes on
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I believe spillover of 2000 wouldn't clear Aug 2009 and only clear June 2009.July and Aug 2009 will be cleared only with a spillover of 3000\4000.
Off-Topic:
Do Indian nationals travelling to USA via pairs on advance parole require French Airport Transit Visa? All the trackitt posts that suggest to get Airport Transit Visa are from 2017. I found following link which says since July 23, 2018, every Indian passport holder is permitted to go through the international zone of any airport in France without the need to present an Airport Transit Visa.
Can anyone who has traveled via pairs on advance parole recently confirm this? Many Thanks in advance!!
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/ind...isa-in-france/
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/fra...-transit-visa/
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcvijay
Wow!!!. It gets depressing day by day, the more I know. I never filed EAD and can’t downgrade to EB3 as I am in medical profession
With very little or no SO,Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010
The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.
Thank you Aceman
These numbers are depressing. lets just hope we get atleast some spillover to move these dates along faster every year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Thank you Aceman. I really appreciate you taking time to give this information.
To find demand data- is the following link right one to calculate?
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf
Yes, that would be the latest one albeit 6 months old.Quote:
Originally Posted by canada
is there a report with number of pending consular processing cases grouped by country, month and year?
I traveled through Paris a month back and can confirm that you DO NOT need transit visa to pass through CDG. You must be transiting out of Schengen area though - if you are connecting to another Schengen airport then you WILL need a Schengen visa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
That sounds very slow. They are already @ 1 April 2009 for EB2. Do you really think it will take them 1 year to clear 1 month for EB2 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by swordfish380
Historically for last 5 years what spillover did we get in EB2 category ?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Where do we get this spill over from ? Every year does the spill over come from the same category ?
EB3 India got nothing from EB2 for over a decade. Something if you count the upgrade from EB3 to EB2. The only SO available for the last 3-4 years is just horizontal SO.Quote:
Originally Posted by infotalk
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...l-reports.html
=========EB3 , EB2
For 2010 ---> 3036, 19961
For 2011 ---> 4002, 23997
For 2012 ---> 2804, 19726
For 2013 ---> 7816, 17193
For 2014 ---> 3526, 23527
For 2015 ---> 7026, 7235
For 2016 ---> 4617, 3930
For 2017 ---> 6641, 2879
EB3 stopped getting anything from EB2 when USCIS were forced to prioritize horizontal spillover over vertical. So yes this is true after about 2009/2008 timeframe.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
p.s- Technically EB3 ROW did receive some EB2 visas a few years back for S Korea. That was outrageous and illegal but as always there wasn't much outcry over that.
Thank you. It helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Would be Visa Bulletin impacted due to partial shutdown?
I am sure USCIS works but not sure DHS visa bulletins be impacted or not??
USCIS is working. I received a text for submitting EAD renewal. On liter side, if they stopped conducting interviews,there will be spill over at the end of the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_