EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

You can not stay on EAD forever - whenever you become current, your case will be approved or denied - there is no third option. With the decision the role of EAD is over. However, are you sure that your job change will not meet AC21 requirements? They are pretty broad and I have not come across any case of 485 being rejected because of AC21 requirements not being met.

---

imdeng,

There are numerous denial cases on account of AC21 requirements. Trust my word, simply because it takes hours for me to show you the evidence:)

I can compare those denials to that of fishing the speeding car on a free-way. You may not know who will be pulled aside.

Just like Zen, I would also prefer to go on hibernation!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by moon80

Good chance that it will move in Dec 2014/Jan 2015

---

if you are referring to the EB2I priority date, then I'm afraid there is NO chance of it moving in Dec 2014/Jan 2015. The caveat would be if Obama does something (recapture or elimination of dependents from cap).

Gurus,

Just wondering, Can they use 2014 year Spillover after Sep 2014? If not, Will they use FY 2015 visa quota in October 2014 approval?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

You have 2 options -
1) try to see if you can word the new job description to be similar to the old job to qualify for AC21. As imdeng mentioned there's quite a wide latitude for what qualifies. Unless u are doing something drastic like nuclear scientist to programmer you should be able to get away with it. If you feel comfortable, list out the high level job descriptions on this forum and perhaps members could opine.

2) restart your GC process and port your old pd. You should get perm approval in 9-12 months and can concurrently file 140/485. I would only recommend this if you really want the other job and are willing to potentially wait another year to get approved.

---

Unfortunately, that is my case. I am in a scientist role with programming constituting 20% of my job. I have to move to full time programming job. Dont know how big a deal that would be under AC 21. Thanks for all who responded though.

So I guess that's all for this year then. The wait continues for the next year. I wasn't expecting a miracle, so whatever has happened has happened for good.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vckomara

Unfortunately, that is my case. I am in a scientist role with programming constituting 20% of my job. I have to move to full time programming job. Dont know how big a deal that would be under AC 21. Thanks for all who responded though.

---

Also here are some high level job functions used for EB-2 application which I overlooked in your response and it doesnt look as bad as I thought but still not a programming job.

1. Research and Develop Novel methods for **** (science related)
2. Independently demonstrate and develop new techniques
3. Implement application software using C#/C++

Kanmani - I absolutely trust your word :-)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

imdeng,

There are numerous denial cases on account of AC21 requirements. Trust my word, simply because it takes hours for me to show you the evidence:)

I can compare those denials to that of fishing the speeding car on a free-way. You may not know who will be pulled aside.

Just like Zen, I would also prefer to go on hibernation!

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vik123

Gurus,

Just wondering, Can they use 2014 year Spillover after Sep 2014? If not, Will they use FY 2015 visa quota in October 2014 approval?

---

The answers to your questions - No and Yes

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

The answers to your questions - No and Yes

---

Thanks vizcard.

Hi Gurus,

Before we go on hibernation till Q4' 15, could some body tell me how many pending applications ( rough estimate ) are existing between may'09 till end of 09?
Thanks Gurus..

There are about 8500 pending applications between May-Dec 09 as per the July inventory + expect approx 1500 pending until May 2009 which will not be cleared this FY, + (1000-1500) straight EB2 and porters who will file until the dates stay put until the next bulletin. So total of 11000 until Dec 09.

Gurus please correct me if I am wrong.

That is reasonable ball park. Number for porters may be a little higher and inventory overhang may be a touch more. ~13K feels about right.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

There are about 8500 pending applications between May-Dec 09 as per the July inventory + expect approx 1500 pending until May 2009 which will not be cleared this FY, + (1000-1500) straight EB2 and porters who will file until the dates stay put until the next bulletin. So total of 11000 until Dec 09.

Gurus please correct me if I am wrong.

---

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by helooo

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

---

First time filers approvals take approx 4 months for the GC. So I would assume a July filer would get approved in the Oct timeframe assuming there are numbers available. EAD/AP should be within 90 days and not dependent on dates being current or not.

helooo

All the cases that are current are processed by receipt date of 485 - oldest first.

So whenever you filed .. expect GC 4-5 months later.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by helooo

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

if you are referring to the EB2I priority date, then I'm afraid there is NO chance of it moving in Dec 2014/Jan 2015. The caveat would be if Obama does something (recapture or elimination of dependents from cap).

---

There is good chance that Mr. O might do something for legals Nov/Dec 2014 using his exec power. In that case dates will move.

Sometimes it takes as little as 40 to 50 days to get 485 approved for first timers. (EAD and AP denied in such cases since 485 gets approved before EAD application is adjucated). Hence it might help to get fingerprinting done as soon as possible by opting to walk in once fingerprinting appt is received to speed up the case.

Generally when the dates retrogress there wont be any approvals from that month onwards, but last year we saw some approvals in December for EB2 I when the dates were not current. Further I dont think anyone is 100% sure how the spillover from last year is used for October / November 485 approvals for EB2 India. There were a ton of approvals for EB2 India in Oct / Nov last year which logically could have come only from EB2 India's 2014 quota or from family spillover but I dont have more info. I benefitted from it last year and I hope the same happens this year.

And the processing by receipt date is the rule, but adjucating 485 has many variables to it (depending on background check results, the adjucating officer, information in the application etc) and hence you might get 485 approved much ahead of folks who have RD before your's . this happens especially when first timers get approved in few weeks compared to the folks who have 485 pending for more than a year (due to retrogression) and
still dont get cleared before Nov.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

helooo

All the cases that are current are processed by receipt date of 485 - oldest first.

So whenever you filed .. expect GC 4-5 months later.

---

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...g-in-the-fall/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...g-in-the-fall/

---

I am a little confused with the following paragraph:

No EB-2 India Filings for the Remainder of September
The fact that EB-2 India is unavailable for September also means that no new EB-2 India I-485 filings will be accepted during the rest of the month. This includes I-485 filings for dependents and I-485 interfiling requests (usually after I-140 porting applications). Cases that are filed are either likely to be held for processing on October 1st or will be returned to the applicant.

I thought that candidates can apply until they are current for the VB.

What happens to people who have not yet received EAD. Do we still get the EAD. I am done with finger printing but no sign of EAD yet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by seattlet

Sometimes it takes as little as 40 to 50 days to get 485 approved for first timers.

---

That's possible seattlet. Certainly. I only quoted average time.

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Anish05

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

---

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Anish05

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

---

Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

//The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals.//

It's very hard to believe President's EO will be of any help to legals. In my opinion the probability for that to happen is almost zip. There will be no CIR if GOP wins majority in both Senate and Congress which I believe is gonna happen in November.

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...g-in-the-fall/

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkat

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

---

Same boat here, PD June 2008. Missed boat last year and no RFE at all this year. On second thought, life doesn't change much without GC. I am on EAD for last 2 years and no regrets.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jimmys

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

---

Yes it did last year too around sept 15 - 20th. However come Oct, there were lot of approvals in eb2 india including a lot of new filers. I am hoping it will repeat. Though one difference is last year, there were unused visas from family category.


Gurus, Is there any way to calculate or guess if there could be any unused visas from family this year?

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.

Hey Jonty! I am April 2011. We are close!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jagan01

I am a little confused with the following paragraph:

No EB-2 India Filings for the Remainder of September
The fact that EB-2 India is unavailable for September also means that no new EB-2 India I-485 filings will be accepted during the rest of the month. This includes I-485 filings for dependents and I-485 interfiling requests (usually after I-140 porting applications). Cases that are filed are either likely to be held for processing on October 1st or will be returned to the applicant.

I thought that candidates can apply until they are current for the VB.

What happens to people who have not yet received EAD. Do we still get the EAD. I am done with finger printing but no sign of EAD yet.

---

Yes. They can apply. It just indicates that they won't be processed until October. That may mean (but not definitely) one has to re-file if the application is returned.

You will get the EAD. Only the initial application is tied to the 485. After that they follow different paths. Also, the fingerprinting is for the 485 and not EAD.

Bottom line is those you have applied have to wait atleast till Oct to be processed and those who haven't filed (but are current) need to wait till oct to file.

Oh man....same here June PD 2008 missed it last year by 15 days!

I year wait again!!!:mad: I thought "Acche Din Aa Gaye Hain"!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkat

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rajamp

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.

---

If date is current you can file 485. Whoever says otherwise is spreading misinformation. Do not pay attention to that and let others know this too.

Sport - I am just answering your private question on "why this move by DOS" - here in the forum publicly. These are my thoughts - so treat them as such.

I think CO is trying to do his job as best as he could. Look, his hands are tied in terms of how many visas he can allocate. So if the numbers are gone .... they are gone.

Once they are gone, he needs to set the expectations of people who are not yet approved and tell them that the party is over as far as 2014 numbers are exhausted. I applaud him for doing that. Personally speaking I would rather hear the bad news now than later.

What has happened here is that EB5 has probably given ZERO spillover. EB1 - I do not believe provided much either. So EB2I was saved by EB2ROW. But those numbers from EB2ROW can't be more than 10K. Thus EB2I had enough numbers to advance upto May 2009 but not enough to approve all of them.

My guess as of now is that at least 30% of people between Jan-May 2009 EB2I were not approved.

I think EB2I's 5 year rule doesn't look very good going forward. Sorry for the bleak assessment. Will update header by tomorrow.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

What are we to expect in October 2014? Do you think they will be willing to approve the leftover people from the regular quota + phantom spillover applied early (the way they did in Oct 2013) or will they simply close the door in the first week of October?

The VB came out on the 9th and this news came out on the 10th. Clearly, they couldn't have known anything earth shattering in a matter of 24 hours. Why did they leave the VB at May 1, 2009? Does this show a willingness to approve us remaining folks?

---

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

---

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.

---

Kanmani you there? Spec? Any opinion on this?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Q, how is the bolded part logical? The USCIS can approve thousands of cases in a matter of a week. Why would he not retrogress the date in the October bulletin itself to let the demand drive the date forward? Why not do what he does to EB3I until July? Surely, there is no way the demand can be 0 because the USCIS has been approving 200-400 cases each day for the last few days.

Someone mentioned an interesting theory of why the DOS made the bulletin effectively "U". They might want to discourage new applicants from sending their applications in September and endanger them from doing medicals again next year. It is possible that the "U" applies only for new applications and those in the pipelines might be accounted for in whatever remaining spillover for September. As of Sept 11, approvals are still coming in. We have to wait and watch.

It just did not make sense why he would simply make the bulletin U. It's not as if any applications they receive now are going to be adjudicated any time soon. Why stop them in the first place? They did not do this in April 2012 if everyone remembers. The only thing I can derive is that they perhaps want to stop people from burning their medical RFE clock early or free more adjudicators to work on pending cases.

I still feel a little hopeful. Please chime in.

---

He hasn't made the dates U. In fact he explicitely said they will still be at May 1 2009 in October. However now it is for certain that the dates will be retro in November itself.

What was logical in the bolded part was the last sentence. That in 24 hours there was nothing new he could knew ... so it means yet he kept the date till May 1 2009 in order clear those cases in October.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gc2008

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

---

Atually, its much more than 280. Per the Spectators posts in Data and Facts, there were 601 (362+239) EB2 I Trackitt approvals in oct and nov last year. Clearly, thats much more than EB2I annual quota if you multiply the #s by trackitt to actual multiplier.