EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Section 245 (K) enables an applicant to apply for AOS, even if s/he has been out of status or worked without authorization for less than 180 days.

However the USCIS can issue an RFE if there are any gaps in the immigration status. (I personally know of a case where an RFE was issued to explain a gap of 2.5 weeks in status. He got his GC when he explained his situation)

If all documents are available, it is advisable to chronologically include them in your application packet.

My $.02.

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excerpts from 245 (k) memo,

(4) Counting against the 180 days timeframe in (d)(1).
(A) General Guidelines. If the adjudicator determines that an employment-based adjustment of status applicant described in (d)(2) above is subject to any of the bars to adjustment of status set forth in Sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7), or (c)(8), then the adjudicator must determine whether the aggregate period in which the alien failed to continuously maintain lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of the alien’s admission since the date of alien’s last lawful admission to the United States is 180 days or less.
The guidance below describes the periods of time to be examined for purposes of calculating time against the 180-day period.
• The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.

Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.

Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.

The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps

October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917

This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.

Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.

Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.

Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.

That gives EB2-IC receipts of :

October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842

The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.

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Thanks for detailed calculations Spec.

As some of people who got current in Oct/Nov are still filing, the above numbers represent the (with some range) lower bound of filings - is that a fair statement?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.

Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.

Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.

The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps

October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917

This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.

Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.

Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.

Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.

That gives EB2-IC receipts of :

October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842

The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.

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Spec, that's a good way to look at it from the Sep baseline. So the OR here for Nov 2011 is 5842/7624 = 0.77 which is closer to your 0.8.

I agree, this approach has far too many assumptions. But the good finding is that the OR is staying between the 0.8 - 0.9 range. Hopefully confirming / reinforcing the basis for your and Teddy's other assumptions.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

As some of people who got current in Oct/Nov are still filing, the above numbers represent the (with some range) lower bound of filings - is that a fair statement?

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Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

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I think the majority have filed in the month they become eligible. There are 2 reasons, one you have stated in your post and second - the further movement in next bulletin was never guaranteed and there was always some talk about possible retrogression. In such a situation people dont want to take a risk.

There might be some for whom the circumstances were unavoidable and even those folks would have fought tooth and nail to get their applications in.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I did perform your analysis for Nov. 2010, I got 6529. Assuming that the only increase in Nov 2011 was EB2IC and other other EB category filings were the same - a big assumption,

We get 7551 - 6529 = 1022. That is indeed a very low number.

other approach:
TSC + NSC Nov. 2010 = 17417
TSC + NSC Nov. 2011 = 20975
Increase = 3558 ...attributed all to EB2IC filings

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KD, I think Spec's approach similar to your approach of using the increases is a better approach as that uses the Sep 2011 as the baseline.

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

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Yeah that seems to be case. Check RDs for some Oct Nov PDs in trackitt.

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

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They are not necessarily particularly good metrics, but to date, according to Trackitt, around 10% of October VB applicants have a RD after October and about 8% of November VB applicants have a RD after November.

If processing speed of law firms is a problem, the numbers start to ramp up considerably after that.

This is true for some folks. I filed 6 weeks after being current. I know atleast 2 colleagues who have had similar delays. Our lawyer said he will file in December but since Jan bulletin also moved forward they slowed down. It was tough time for us, I also considered filing it through another lawyer. But finally they seem to have filed last week.

I hope and pray that things go smooth going forward.

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Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

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Thanks GC-Utopic and ChampU for quick responses.

On trackitt a Nov. Indian guy got 485 approved already!

TSC
Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
primary

His EAD/AP is not approved yet, but he already got 485 approved. He is sure his approval is 485, not EAD/AP.

It looks like some November cases will be approved soon!

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Originally Posted by tendlya

Thanks GC-Utopic and ChampU for quick responses.

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

This is true for some folks. I filed 6 weeks after being current. I know atleast 2 colleagues who have had similar delays. Our lawyer said he will file in December but since Jan bulletin also moved forward they slowed down. It was tough time for us, I also considered filing it through another lawyer. But finally they seem to have filed last week.

I hope and pray that things go smooth going forward.

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I hope and pray for you as well that things go smooth going forward. You make a good point goforgreen. Since the next months bulletin is generally available before the 10th of the current month, if the next month bulletin does not show retrogression, lawyers / companies / folks may take it easy. That makes sense.

Thanks everyone for clarifying.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I heard Dallas office is not too easy to get walk in, but I think you should try it!

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Walk in didnot work - they told us that dallas center was booked till end of jan.

We didnot request for a change of date , my wife says that she feels we can make it :) I am skeptical though.

Question - what would be the last day uptill which I can re-schedule my appointmnet, if we were to ?

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...d-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...d-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

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Pasting it from CM's blog : ( He expects movement in March & April also).

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

Below is Ron G take on Eb2 moment and HR3012.....i also dont know how it is going to be...next 2 bulletions will be eagerly waited by all Eb2 folks...whether it brings happiness or not have to wait and see...

"Personally, and this is just my gut feeling (based on the available information), I expect to see the China/India EB2 cutoff date continue to move forward at a rate of about one year per month. It should become current or near-current no later than May. At that point, we will either have enough applications in the pipeline to use up the annual quota, or we won't. If we do, then the cutoff date will start to retrogress, ultimately settling in at around mid-2009. If we don't have enough applications in the pipeline, then we will see a fall down of numbers into Worldwide EB3 - where there are more than enough pending applications to use up the quota. "

"Thanks. I don't know what the Senate intends to do. The inmates are running the asylum. The Senate is the only institution in American where a 41% minority has full veto power over the majority. Also, as a result of really silly 18th century rules, a single demented Senator can block action by the entire Senate. As a practical matter, the USCIS failure to act on pending AOS applications is having the same result, for the most part, that HR3012 would have. China/India EB2 cutoff dates are advancing rapidly and may well become "current" in the next few months. It won't last, but it will give everyone with approved EB2 eligible PERMs an opportunity to file. "

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Originally Posted by LUVSPIDER

Pasting it from CM's blog : ( He expects movement in March & April also).

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

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If DoS advance the dates in March and April with 1 year advancement in each month, as they did it last 2 months, then they really need to slowdown and wait for people to clear PERM :-). No offence.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...d-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

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It's a very reputable law firm , on par with the best ones ala murthy and co

Need help. Thanks in advance.
I have a question. I have sent affidavits from parents in place of birth certificate to the lawyer. He is preparing AOS forms. I have also applied for birth certificate a month ago and i might get it in a week or so. Do any of the AOS/EAD forms have a field to mention the proof for birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. My concern is that if i get my birth certificate, can i send it to my lawyer to include it with my application or will he have to re-do the form preparation.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Need help. Thanks in advance.
I have a question. I have sent affidavits from parents in place of birth certificate to the lawyer. He is preparing AOS forms. I have also applied for birth certificate a month ago and i might get it in a week or so. Do any of the AOS/EAD forms have a field to mention the proof for birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. My concern is that if i get my birth certificate, can i send it to my lawyer to include it with my application or will he have to re-do the form preparation.

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AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

Thanks. My question is different though, do the forms include a field where you have to specify what is being submitted as a proof of birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. The reason i am asking this is to understand if the lawyer will have to fill the forms again if i change my proof of birth from affidavits to birth certificate.

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Originally Posted by GC-Utopic

AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Thanks. My question is different though, do the forms include a field where you have to specify what is being submitted as a proof of birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. The reason i am asking this is to understand if the lawyer will have to fill the forms again if i change my proof of birth from affidavits to birth certificate.

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You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.

"B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence"

According to my lawyer, this is true only if BC does not have proper names of you and your parents like initials, or no-name at all or different name than what is in the passport(s).

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Originally Posted by GC-Utopic

AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

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How about before submitting the forms. So i have sent the affidavits to the lawyer and he has prepared the AOS forms. Before he submits the AOS forms to USCIS if i send him the birth certificate, will he have to change the forms and get them signed from me again or is it just a supporting document that can be included with the final submission.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.

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... if BC does not have proper names of you and your parents like initials...

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I'm planning to re-submit the things they asked for..BC not having my name + affidavits + Marriage certificate. (I've submitted these the first time I filed 485). Would I piss off the reviewing officer as he may (or maynot) have looked at my documentation. Do I only have 1 chance to submit RFE docs...or can they ask for more documents after I respond to 1st RFE?

Hi,

At last I have made up my mind and decide to apply my i-485. I am single and my priority date is March-2009. I am planning to get married by end of this year, hope I wont get my GC by tht time. Let me know your views. Thanks!

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi,

At last I have made up my mind and decide to apply my i-485. I am single and my priority date is March-2009. I am planning to get married by end of this year, hope I wont get my GC by tht time. Let me know your views. Thanks!

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Thats great, Hopefully you will not get greened before 2013 March.

I posted this in the i485 related thread but seems like there is less traffic there. I am reposting here, so Q please feel free to delete after couple of days if this is resolved here. Repost:

In the i-485 application, should the Form G-325A's Job title and Job history match what was submitted in the i-140 application and/or Perm application?

In my case, my approved Perm's job title was Computer Software Engineers, approved i-140's job title was Product Manager. Please advise.

Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

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180 days after 485.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

How about before submitting the forms. So i have sent the affidavits to the lawyer and he has prepared the AOS forms. Before he submits the AOS forms to USCIS if i send him the birth certificate, will he have to change the forms and get them signed from me again or is it just a supporting document that can be included with the final submission.

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It is supporting documentation.

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Originally Posted by 03May07

I'm planning to re-submit the things they asked for..BC not having my name + affidavits + Marriage certificate. (I've submitted these the first time I filed 485). Would I piss off the reviewing officer as he may (or maynot) have looked at my documentation. Do I only have 1 chance to submit RFE docs...or can they ask for more documents after I respond to 1st RFE?

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I wouldn't send anything unless explicitly asked for. That way there is no confusion. If they wanted something, they would have asked for it.

Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

This works in both GPS and google maps. 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

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.............

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

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Its in Elizabeth, NJ.. .don't need to put the Elizabeth "City". I assume you guys are around the NYC/JC area ?

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Originally Posted by Reader

This works in both GPS and google maps. 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208

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Sun
180 days from the RD of I-485.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

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Thanks Kanmani , Vizcard

Today my company (desi consulting co.) send me email stating that "company came to know that my priority dates are current and company will file GC (I485) for me. Before company file my GC (I485) I have to sign a contract with them (they have email me 19 page legal (lawyer) contract). Company GC contract state that if I leave company in 18 months after filing my I485 than I have to pay $25,000/- (cost for filing my I485) to company and other bla..bla..bla.."

I was luck to know all this kind of things from senior(old) H1B friends. Taking there advice I had filed my I485 by my own lawyer without letting company know.

Reason I am posting this here is my other friend working for desi consulting also received similar letter from his company.

Just Curious to know. How did you file without the knowledge of the employer. Did you submit Employment verification letter?

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Just Curious to know. How did you file without the knowledge of the employer. Did you submit Employment verification letter?

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You are right, you need EVL from your employer to file 485.