EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Given all this discussion, can someone summarize the impact .. Best case / worst case scenario?

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A very brief summary would be that Sofad will range between 20 - 25K as per the current indicators, personally though I will stick with something closer to 25K. 30K appears to be extremely unlikely. Given the point where we are it will also affect the new intake sentiment because we have certainly crossed the 25K line any fresh intake is now for purely buffering purpose.

Spec - I have deleted my post, you can work on it.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I think there is a danger in assuming that there is a real 33% decrease in ROW Certifications Y-to-Y.

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For ROW-M-P, the FY2011 figure of 25.1k would become 28.9k, which is only 22% less than the FY2010 figure of 37.3k.

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What do the EB1 figures look like if you use the adjusted FY2011 PERM figure of 69,841 instead of 59,863??

EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt are very low to date (about half last year's level) . Considering both the remaining I-140 backlog and the 11.5k cases in the October 2011 USCIS Inventory, I find that a little surprising.

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Spec,
Agree, looking at PERM data EB2ROWMP decrease is very clear, irrespective of the amount of backlog.

When i look at PERM data first half vs second half of FY2011, the decrease in PERM certifications for I&C is in proportion but for ROWMP it's 10% more than normal. If i compare Q4 to Q1 then it is 16% more!

As far as EB1 figures, since USCIS dashboard shows actual i-140 receipts, i don't think adjusted PERM numbers (pending) will make any difference.

In conclusion, EB1 is on the rise and increase in EB1 demand somewhat correlates to lower ROW-PERM (otherwise would have applied in EB2) in the second half of FY2011!

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

A very brief summary would be that Sofad will range between 20 - 25K as per the current indicators, personally though I will stick with something closer to 25K. 30K appears to be extremely unlikely. Given the point where we are it will also affect the new intake sentiment because we have certainly crossed the 25K line any fresh intake is now for purely buffering purpose.

Spec - I have deleted my post, you can work on it.

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So it'll be about another couple of months of movement max. At 2500 density, we'll need 10 months of movement. So June 30 is still the target date for FY12?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

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Q,
We both agree that decrease in EB2-ROWMP and increase in EB1.

I am using YoY PERM data and i-140 receipts from the dashboard, Spec is trying to get a feel for the PERM backlog by adjusting numbers for actual filings instead of completions.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

So it'll be about another couple of months of movement max. At 2500 density, we'll need 10 months of movement. So June 30 is still the target date for FY12?

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25k Sofad just takes us to 01-FEb-2008. Actually there were 8.5K cases before Jul 15th 2007 that were approved this year so its only 16.5K beyond Jul 15th 2007. So if 25K is the target we are already in the buffer zone.

Teddy,

My post now has the correct figures.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec and Veni

Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.

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Q,

I agree it has become confusing. I hope I am addressing your question.

Apples and Oranges.

There is a YoY decrease in total Certifications i.e. when looking at ALL PDs. However DOL has processed 2 months less 2011 cases than they processed 2010 cases last year. When this is taken into account, the underlying total Certifications would be about the same as last year on the same basis.

When looking at Certifications for the Current year receipts i.e. PDs of 2011 in this year's data and PDs for 2010 in the FY2010 data, there is an increase.

The monthly density for PDs in 2011 is much higher to date. China, India & ROW are all substantially higher than the corresponding period in 2010, but China and India show a much higher increase than ROW.

If this trend continues for the rest of CY2011, then there will be a large number of 2011 PD cases.

It is likely to be be so high (56-60k) that the amount of spillover available would not be able to cover a full year's progress when these cases become Current. EB2-IC could be 35-37k of the total. That is the gross figure and would be reduced for Porting, multiple PERM etc. Nonetheless, it is a very high figure.

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I agree it has become confusing. I hope I am addressing your question.

Apples and Oranges.

There is a YoY decrease in total Certifications i.e. when looking at ALL PDs. However DOL has processed 2 months less 2011 cases than they processed 2010 cases last year. When this is taken into account, the underlying total Certifications would be about the same as last year on the same basis.

When looking at Certifications for the Current year receipts i.e. PDs of 2011 in this year's data and PDs for 2010 in the FY2010 data, there is an increase.

The monthly density for PDs in 2011 is much higher to date. China, India & ROW are all substantially higher than the corresponding period in 2010, but China and India show a much higher increase than ROW.

If this trend continues for the rest of CY2011, then there will be a large number of 2011 PD cases.

It is likely to be be so high (56-60k) that the amount of spillover available would not be able to cover a full year's progress when these cases become Current. EB2-IC could be 35-37k of the total. That is the gross figure and would be reduced for Porting, multiple PERM etc. Nonetheless, it is a very high figure.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2011.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!

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Q,
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.

Yes Veni. Thanks! Corrected.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!

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Q,

PD 2010 is less dense than PD 2009 for Non-IC, but much denser for IC than PD 2009, so it is not a great year overall (although still lower for IC than PD2008).

2011, to date, is just denser for everybody, but IC have risen far more than anybody else.

It remains to be seen whether this continues for the rest of CY2011. We will have a better idea in 6 months. Whether it is bad for SOFAD contribution by EB2-ROW really depends on how much backlog there is to come from previous years.

Using a modified form of Veni's calculation, I come up with a figure of an additional 5-6k EB1 I-140s, which would translate into an average 10.5k extra I-485.

That would essentially wipe out the EB1 contribution to SOFAD, which I have estimated at 12.5k for FY2011.

Let's hope it is incorrect.

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

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Originally Posted by ChampU

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

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ChampU,
Unless you request to re-schedule your bio-metrics appointment before USCIS scheduled date, your 485 will be considered abandoned if you miss the appointment date.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

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It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

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Originally Posted by evoori

It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

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Thanks! Thats what I planned to do. I will ask my attorney to mail it out on 2nd, so that the USCIS receives them on Monday, Dec. 5th.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1

This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.

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Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

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WAD : Working as Designed
:)
I am sure you meant EAD

That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

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Originally Posted by Pdmar08

Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

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You may be correct - thanks. It is House of Representative (I guess thats what HR stands for now), which is probably Congress. A more accurate term to use is the House, because 2011-2012 is the 112th Congress, under which there are House Bills and Senate Bills that get passed. House bills start with H (as in HR, HJRes, HConRes, HRes) while Senate bills start with S (S, SJRes, SConRes, SRes)..by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.

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Originally Posted by longgcque

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.

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lol. indeed interesting ;)

Once a GC is approved for you - you have the freedom to be jobless. It is usually recommended to stay in the same job that gave you the GC for 180 days at least - so that the impression of a fraudulent GC is not raised. However, even cases of people leaving job immediately after getting GC have sailed through the citizenship process. I am not even sure whether one would be out of status if one leaves a job after filing 485 and getting EAD - the only concern is that if you get an RFE for something like EVL then one would be in trouble.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

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Hi Teddy,

My PD is Apr 18th 2008. Looks like according to your analysis the dates will retrogress or stay intact in the next bulletin. So I dont think mine will become current anytime soon :-(.

Vchirakala, Teddy said 50% chance, and if the 3012 bill passes house today, then I do feel that we have more than 75 % chance, so hang on tight :)