EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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07-12-2011, 07:06 PM
gcseeker

Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.
07-12-2011, 07:17 PM
RMS_V13

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.

Are you sure? Your disp name is 03 May and assuming its your PD too, why would you be prepared for a May 1st move :)
07-12-2011, 07:25 PM
haripathhi

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcseeker

Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks
07-12-2011, 07:31 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by haripathhi

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true :)
07-12-2011, 08:06 PM
leo4ever

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends .... check with a good lawyer. I have risen from a business analyst to manager to sr manager to director during GC process. So I would imagine its perfectly possible as long as its a promotion in the same line of work.
07-12-2011, 08:16 PM
nayekal

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true :)

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?
07-12-2011, 08:18 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo4ever

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown, approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.
07-12-2011, 08:21 PM
vipulgupta470

on a positive note - lets not expect anything from Sep 2011 bulletin like we didnt expect anything from June 2011 bulletin (read between the lines :))
07-12-2011, 08:30 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Given the continuing surge in EB2-ROW PERM approvals and I-140 filings since July 09 (which resulted in ballooning the demand since Oct 10, the new fiscal year, and finally now getting around to consume visa after USCIS processing delays), this is not a surprise. I had previously expressed deep reservations on the rosy scenarios. Still I am happy considering how far things have come. I guess the June visa bulletin movement caught everybody off-guard and raised hopes a bit too much.

Following trackitt, I see unprecedented and gigantic surge in PERM filings in March and April 2011. But its mostly EB2-I. Some of it is sure porting demand. But as others have pointed out, that number is still miniscule.

PS: Oh boy! I am old now I guess. Senior member, eh? Better rein in that bitter tongue of mine lest I come across as curmudgeon.

kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.
07-12-2011, 08:53 PM
natvyas

Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat
07-12-2011, 09:23 PM
indiasunil

So what is your expectation based on above PERM data matrix for next bulletin. For me based on analysis it will go till Aug 2007 or March 2008 in Sep/Oct Bulletin.
07-12-2011, 09:35 PM
natvyas

I guess it would be somewhere in 2008 (Jan, Mar or maybe Jun 08)
07-12-2011, 09:51 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by nayekal

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?

It depends on how much frustrated you are. Obviously there is some time lost and who knows how fast the next company might act and how fast your labor may get trhoguh etc etc. Waiting at least through mid sep would be prudent so that you know whether oct 2007 will be reached at all at least through Oct 2011.

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat

I think this is logical and possible. It would be nice if some sort of evidence exists to back it up as a valid explanation.
07-12-2011, 10:55 PM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage.

Best way to avoid wastage is to take in more applications and approve pre adjudicated cases. Besides that waiting for the last month to take 5-8k applications has more chances of wastage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Right now they look nothing more than a mistake. You can compare to mistake done by Mumbai consulate last month where they said EB2I was current. Or VB vanishing earlier today. Or maybe some guy at INS didnt know the rules and he sent the fee notice. Shit happens. Also, the number of reported NVC fee notices(3-4 at max) is too low to confirm this is really happening for everyone who applied for CP.
07-12-2011, 11:29 PM
Zoroark

First try!

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown, approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

I am trying to find out the ratio between Perm and I-485 based on 2006 data to determine future demand. Below data includes both EB2 and EB3

PD - 2006 Perm Data
FY 2006 - 14046 , FY 2007 - 11461 , FY08-11 - 175
TOTAL ~ 25700

PD - 2006 I-485 Inventory data - 18551 + 10587 = 29138

So its 1.13 times Perm data.

If we take 2008 the total Perm is 23352.
So demand is ~ 26387

If we split 70/30 between EB2 and EB3.

2008 EB2 - 18471
2008 EB3 - 7915

:o
07-12-2011, 11:30 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

6K porting? hmm...

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

I think every one gets that. Was wondering if 6K is backed by some hard numbers. We really need to wait till Sep bulletin to see where we land - as Venni said. Plus PWMB , porting are guesstimates and there are more unknowns than before now.

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.
07-12-2011, 11:35 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.
07-13-2011, 06:28 AM
imdeng

The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.
07-13-2011, 08:10 AM
03May07

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.
07-13-2011, 08:12 AM
leo4ever

Hi Veni,

Thanks a lot buddy. This info is a lot helpful.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.
07-13-2011, 08:12 AM
kkurasa

I tend to agree and also think they could move the dates farther ahead in the next VB to build a pipeline before retrogressing it a little. That way, they would know the demand and can then decide what to do as the next spill over season starts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.
07-13-2011, 08:15 AM
leo4ever

@03May07,

Dont be Optimist or Pessimist, be a Sthithapragyudu...just kidding.
I know making decisions these days are a lot tougher. I wanted to buy a house and wanted to settle at once place but i can not. H1 they extend it for 1 yr, Drivers license is based on I94 now..Every one is little selfish and there should not be any issue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.
07-13-2011, 08:21 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

I totally understand your frustation. I need to make some really tough decisions and right now feel as if my life is completely on hold. I'm living one VB to another.....
That is why I love this site, it can help people like me make informed decisions about their lives...
I'm trying to be an optimist.. :)
07-13-2011, 08:56 AM
qesehmk

Closing the poll

Team, the poll we posted on name change etc has so far consistently yield about 1/3rd people advocating some change (either domain name or blog name) while 2/3rd saying don't change anything.

I do not think the numbers will move much %wise even if we keep teh poll alive for another few weeks. So I am going to take this poll down today. If anybody has objections/suggestions .. let me know.

Based on the poll results, we will keep everything as is.
07-13-2011, 09:15 AM
kpt112107

I am P now...
07-13-2011, 09:26 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

So total of about 33K SOFAD this yr.. Is that lower side of the estimated numbers? From memory we were estimating 38 K to 40K of SOFAD on upper side?
07-13-2011, 09:29 AM
pdmay2008

There will be increase in EB3 to EB2 porting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.

The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.
07-13-2011, 09:32 AM
SDAKSHIN

Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.
07-13-2011, 09:43 AM
qesehmk

My 2 cents on portings:

Whatever the porting this year, one needs to ask, why would that change next year? Is economy getting better?

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDAKSHIN

Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.

The dates movement so far are completely sustainable i.e. will NOT retrogress. You should be clear by end of this year for sure.
07-13-2011, 09:51 AM
bieber

not even 1/3rd of H1b quota is used in this year, filing new h1s, getting extensions are really not smoother now, this should be a leading indicator for porting and EB1C demand
07-13-2011, 09:53 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?

Besides that, there is nothing stopping pre August 2007 EB3s from porting all these years. I dont see any sudden increase in porting as a result.
07-13-2011, 09:53 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.
07-13-2011, 10:00 AM
velugc

I agree, i know many of my EB3 friends with PD after July 2007 already switched / seriously planning to switch jobs to come into EB2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.
07-13-2011, 10:02 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

I haven't entirely decided on what the level of Porting might be next year.

I do agree that the number porting (or at least attempting to port) per "PD month" post July 2007 will probably be higher because many with earlier PDs in EB3 have the benefit of EAD/AP. As Teddy has subsequently pointed out, post July 2007 many people just did not file in EB3 at all, so this is a counteracting factor.

However, we didn't really see any effect from porting until FY2010 (as it became clear how fast EB2-I was progressing as a result of the revised spillover interpretation).

Therefore the porting numbers encompassed people with PDs ranging from say, 2003 to at least May 2006 in FY 2010 and up to April 2007 in FY2011.

A lot of those who can port with earlier PDs will have already done so, so numbers from older PDs might be expected to decline.

How those lower numbers, combined with perhaps higher numbers post backlog turn into a final number, I haven't yet decided.

At the moment, 6k for porting alone in FY2012 feels slightly on the high side.

I need to think about it a bit more.
07-13-2011, 10:04 AM
neospeed

last year sept eb2 i/c movement

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )
07-13-2011, 10:17 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.
07-13-2011, 10:27 AM
Spectator

Wasted Visas in FY2010

Quote:

Originally Posted by neospeed

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )

Theoretical Spillover for EB2 in FY was 20,524 and Spillover used was 20,434 , so only 90 visas were wasted in EB2.

In EB3, 657 visas were wasted.

EB4 received 351 more visas than the allocation.
07-13-2011, 10:30 AM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.

Here are the scenarios I can think of:

1. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2007 : Most of them were not eligible for EB2 due to Bachelors + 5 Year experience requirement. Now most of them who got 5 + Year experience are going to port even though they have EAD/AP. Just to get out of this mess as soon as possible.

2. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2008 : Some of them got 5 + years experience now and also with too much scrutiny in H1B extensions, they want to get ready for next spill over and atleast get EAD/AP (They do not want to become PWMB)

3. EB3 Priority Date After July 2008 : Most of them switching jobs as they still not exceeded their H1B 6 year limit. Trying to find employers who can sponsor them under EB2 so that they can port.

Keep adding if you think of any other scenarios.
07-13-2011, 10:38 AM
tiger_of_web

Just having EAD/AP is not a reason to have less porting prior to 2007. With EAD, one can make a switch to same or similar job. Most people are moving up the value chain and find it useless to use the role created 7/8 years in past to switch today. Hence, there is a double benefit for those who want to upgrade. Better position and also port to EB2. I think this is the single most important driving factor for upgrading.

I have also heard that upgrade in the same company different position is hard to come by these days. CIS is asking for proper justifications and also questioning whether the old position will be filled. That leaves the option of changing employers and filing for a new position. In this economy, such a option is also not easy. I know many people in EB3 beyond 2007 who are wondering if upgrade is the way to go. From what i have seen, most consulting companies always file in Eb3 whatever your qualification and experience is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.
07-13-2011, 10:52 AM
Spectator

A quick and dirty calculation.

If in FY2012, 7.5% of EB3-I with PD of 2003 to July 2007 ported, that would be approx 3,750 cases. 7.5% is slightly less than the possible FY2011 figure, but higher than the FY2010 derived figure.

If we say that EB3 cases waiting to file between the backlog and mid 2008 is 9,000 cases and that 5% of those port, then that is an additional 450 cases.

In total, that is 4,200 cases, so for the moment I will set my maximum at 5,000.

To reach 6k would need a flat rate of around 10.2%. That is not impossible, but is beyond my current comfort level.

For context, my assumed figure for FY2011 is 4.5k rather than 6k.

Perhaps I am saying the same as Teddy, that the numbers will be relatively unchanged - we only differ on what that number is. :)

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