As per CO comments in Feb VB, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off"Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
They may consider I-485 filings.
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As per CO comments in Feb VB, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off"Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
They may consider I-485 filings.
[QUOTE=sportsfan33;18917]I agree with that, and I believe CO will be willing to use every trick in his book to move the date forward. However as we are getting reports about people starting to receive EADs and as someone from Nov'11 filing also received his GC, there is some sign that the USCIS processing has picked up. They don't have to process all the November/December batch. Even if they process a fraction of those and show a demand of 2K, that's enough to stop the movement.
"Good analysis sportsfan! Please also include March spillover of 5K visas coming into EB2 I pool. Even if USCIS processing DQ cases requiring visas pick up, it may not cover the monthly quota plus 5K visas. So, it does look a further movement in March 2012 and possibly in April 2012 is possible; hopefully it goes up to April 2011 PD !"
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I couldn't find a good explanation in the post you linked to.
I have created an explanation in the FACTS & DATA section here
Feel free to edit or add to it if you feel it doesn't adequately explain the concepts.
Sorry for posting here guys but I wanted to know as to how soon do you get (if at all) RFE? If you get your EAD is it safe to assume that all requirements have been satisfied?
How soon you get depends on postal delivery time. Generally would say a week.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTexan
You cannot assume all good if you get EAD, you can still get RFE for 485. I in fact think, different officers adjudicate EAD and 485. 485 would go to experienced senior officers, while EAD/AP is more of a junior level kind of work.
PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012
Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)
TSC - Dallas Center
Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...Quote:
Originally Posted by Desperate8
U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck
Thank You , although I was expecting a delay as I know we might not be able to make it - moreover Feb 3rd is the date I did'nt want it to be on :)Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
For you did you follow up with the service center , make sure that NSC with your PD no body have got their FP notice.
Hoping to get things moving the same way and I get my GC - I am about to retire :)
The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the November 2011 figures. I-140 receipts (total 37582) during June, 2011 -November, 2011 are significantly less than the receipts (total 47597) during June, 2010 - November, 2010. Additionally, the difference between the two totals keeps increasing month after month. Considering the four months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Hi All,
Given HR3012's passing in house, what are the chances that EB2ROW gets aggressive this fiscal year in pursuing their GCs? How much impact that may cause? If they manage to kick-off PERMS in Jan/Feb'12, they might be just-in-time to affect our SO numbers. Quarterly SO might help reduce the impact in short term though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
My Received Date is 12/27, but I already got my Fingerprint Appointment of Janaury 18th on January 10th. I did FP yesterday afternoon.
Just as what Q has said in his pervious posts: TSC is damn fast on Fingerprint, but slow on EAD/AP. NSC is damn fast on EAD/AP, but slow on Fingerprint.
My observation is that TSC can give you FP notice as fast as 10-14 days, but EAD/AP as slow as 2-3 months. NSC can give you EAD/AP as fast as 1 month, but FP notice as slow as 2 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
You can definitely get it done earlier, Go to them and explain them the situation, I am sure they will let you in without any issues. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by Desperate8
Per my experience there shouldn't be any issue. I went in a for an early walk-in and there were no questions asked. They are very accomodative. In your case you should be fine because they would understand your situation. Go ahead with no second thoughts and you should be done with your FP. Good Luck & Congratulations!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Desperate8
I heard Dallas office is not too easy to get walk in, but I think you should try it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
21K filing in TSC and NSC for I-485 in Nov. These are not strictly EB filings ..they include a few other categories too. YOY it has not increased much. only 2800 filings more.
Nov filings in NSC and TSC are 3.3K more than the Oct filings. So the EB2 IC Nov apps could be in this range. Lets see how the Dec numbers come out.
OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
So does this mean, the demand was less in Nov? I mean then it should be further movement right? Or we can't just assume that by this numbers?
While it is true that NSC & TSC do not deal with FB cases, they don't just deal with EB cases either.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
There is a post from way back which explains what each Service Center deals with, but I certainly remember TSC and NSC also handle Refugee and Asylee I-485 cases between them.
The new USCIS Quarterly All Form Types Performance Data report does split the data down to show EB figures. That should be published by the end of February.
In FY2011 EB I-485 receipts accounted for about 36% of EB/Ref/Asy cases. That should increase in FY2012, assuming Ref/Asy stay fairly constant.
Come on Nishant, I thought you would be better than this.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD
TSC and NSC process all of the following:
You are filing based on:
1. A pending or approved I-360 for an International Organization Employee or Family Member
You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-360 was accepted or approved.
2. An approved I-360 for a:
Special Immigrant Religious Worker
Panama Canal Company Employment
U.S. Government in Canal Zone Employment;
Special Immigrant Physician;
International Broadcasters
You must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.
3. Asylum Status
4. Refugee Status
5. HRIFA Dependent
6. A pending or approved I-140
You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-140 was accepted or approved.
7. An approved Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur. (Note: You cannot file Forms I-526 and I-485 concurrently. You must include a copy of the Form I-797C Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-526 was approved.)
You are filing with Form I-140.
You are filing as an Afghan or Iraqi Translator.
If you are filing Form I-485 based on an approved Form I-360 for Afghan or Iraqi Translators, you must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Action, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.
Note: You may not concurrently file Forms I-360 and Form I-485 for this classification.)
cool nice to know, and another point we noticed is last year the refugee asylee took more than 140k visas, so it's no small volume either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
kd2008, we are all just discussing here, and collectively coming to a knowledge. I have no personal stake in anything. Please be polite.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Just look at YOY numbers. The only thing that has changed is the new EB2IC filings. There may be changes in other all filings but the big impact would be from additional filings in this category.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Spec thanks for your post, very well detailed. This gives clarity to everyone not only on the terminology but more importantly on what is OR and demand destruction.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
So based on comments above and Spec's historical ratio mention of 36%, does this calculation make sense?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Let's just look at Nov filings. The surge in filings would have been from date movement from Jul 15 2007 to Nov 1 2007.
From http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India, the perm numbers for EB2IC are
July (assuming 50% since date is from 15th) - 600
Aug - 2100
Sep - 2294
Oct - 2630
Total - 7624
Total receipts in Nov 2011 at TSC = 9013
Apply Specs ratio = 9013 *.36 = 3244
Total receipts in Nov 2011 at NSC = 11964
Apply Specs ratio = 11964 *.36 = 4307
Total EB apps at NSC + TSC in Nov 11 is 4307 + 3244 = 7551
The number 7624 and 7551 are awfully close suggesting very less DD? Actually, that's probably not true as Spec's ratio is for all EB and not just EB2IC. Is there a way to find out how many non EB2 apps were filed or can we use the OR or some other ratio? OR is probably is not usable here as that already accounts for DD.
One quick question about filing I485 for dependent spouse. My wife is on H1B currently. She had changed job couple of years back. My question is do we need to submit I797 copies of her all the jobs she has worked on until now or just the most recent one? Please feel free to move this question to relevant forum afterwards.
The filing numbers include ALL countries i.e. EBIC+ROW. So we need to know IC numbers to be able to comment on DD yet. (assuming all other assumption in your post are close to reality).Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
update: Based on what I read from Spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-IC number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.
mrdeeds,
I'm not sure how far the calculation can go because of some missing information to deduce the EB2-IC component, but I did want to say it is an interesting approach.
Welcome to the forum.
Urgent!
I am sorry for posting this question on this topic, but I am very close to filing my papers and would really appreciate any help on clearing my dilemma:
My priority date is current per February bulletin and I was going to file concurrently for I-140 Successor in Interest and I-485. All documenation is ready, but the lawyer says it's better if we first file for I-140 and get the receipt # and then file for I-485. Normally, I would be OK with it. But the problem is that sometimes I-140 receipt takes too long and I don't want to get in a situation where we are waiting for I-140 receipt that gets delayed for some reason and I can't file my I-485 in this small window of opportunity because I dont have I-140 receipt. What shall I do? Any suggestions?
Thanks in advance your help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tendlya
My attorney had asked us to provide copies of ALL immigration documents ((past and present)I-20s, I-797s, OPT cards) for every applicant (Primary+Dependents).
Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?
Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).Quote:
update: Based on what I read spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-ic number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.
I think you are right.Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
User ntemp on trackitt:
Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
I-485 Approval Date: 17 Jan 2012
Primary applicant
Technically, you need to send all the documentation proving your status since your last entry ( time before your latest I94 does not matter),Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
read about 245 (k) provision.
wow ...superQuote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I did perform your analysis for Nov. 2010, I got 6529. Assuming that the only increase in Nov 2011 was EB2IC and other other EB category filings were the same - a big assumption,Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
We get 7551 - 6529 = 1022. That is indeed a very low number.
other approach:
TSC + NSC Nov. 2010 = 17417
TSC + NSC Nov. 2011 = 20975
Increase = 3558 ...attributed all to EB2IC filings
So just for kicks, I am looking at Spec's http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-PhilippinesQuote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
Assume that PERM approvals were taking 3 months in 2011. Assume that 140 another 2 months, 5 months total. So a ROW + Mexico / Philippines person filing 485 in November 2011 would have a PD of say June 2011. Looking at the data above, that's 1200 PERM total ROW apps. Conservatively, let's assume that the EB(everything except EB3) / EB3 ratio is 50% for ROW. Since the cutoff for EB3 ROW is in 2006, they would not be filing 485s in Nov 2011. So lets say 50% * 1200 = 600 is the number of EB1+EB2+any other current category filers in Nov 2011. Going back to my previous calculation, the number of EB2IC then becomes 7551 - 600 = 6951.
So of the 7624 IC PERMS that were filed between Jul 15 - Nov 1 2011, 6951 485s were filed. That's essentially the OR as I understand it. So the OR = 6951/7624 = 0.91.
So based on http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms, the DD would be 100% - (0.91/1.275) = 28.6% which is smack in between Teddy's 21% & Spec's 37%. Note that 1.275 here is Teddy's TF.
I don't know..maybe I am curve fitting here...
I would suggest to file both I140 and I485 together. you get two benefits with that.Quote:
Originally Posted by SIII140
1) Both of them stay together and as far as i know they will be handled by the same officer (this is what happens in TSC). Once the I485 is adjudicated and I140 is approved you will be granted GC.
2) Concurrent filing in TSC may lead to faster approval. Please look at the below link regarding the Pilot Program which TSC had couple of years back. I am not sure if it is still there but there are chances you may get it sooner.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_tscpls.html
Hope this will help. There might be a valid reason why your lawyer doesn't want to file it together. I would suggest follow up with him to find a good reason for not doing the concurrent filing.
Hope this will help
Section 245 (K) enables an applicant to apply for AOS, even if s/he has been out of status or worked without authorization for less than 180 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by GC-Utopic
However the USCIS can issue an RFE if there are any gaps in the immigration status. (I personally know of a case where an RFE was issued to explain a gap of 2.5 weeks in status. He got his GC when he explained his situation)
If all documents are available, it is advisable to chronologically include them in your application packet.
My $.02.
I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdeeds
Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.
Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.
The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps
October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917
This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.
Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.
Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.
Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.
That gives EB2-IC receipts of :
October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842
The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.