EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by ak7419

Hi @Moveon - I don't want to offend anyone and everyone deserves GC as it is not a privilege. My question is, do you think there is a possibility that folks who filed/downgraded in October and if they are current right now, they have better possibility of getting a GC than folks who are stuck at TSC since 2012? Is it because downgraded folks' applications are low-hanging fruit? They don't need medicals, 485J etc and interviews are also getting exempted - is that the reason?

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downgrade folks in October are anything but low hanging fruit. I don't know what you mean by no medicals, I am assuming that you mean that their medicals have not expired. Even with that there are a few roadblocks. i) their i-140 needs to be approved. Does not matter if your date is current, if your i140 is not approved you are not getting a GC. ii) They need to get their fingerprinting done. There are still lots of folks who have not had their fingerprinting done. iii) After fingerprinting they need to run it through FBI database for a background check, which usually takes 6 - 8 weeks. The folks who have applied in 2012 only need to submit their medicals/485J and rest of their file in in order.

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Originally Posted by ak7419

Hi @Moveon - I don't want to offend anyone and everyone deserves GC as it is not a privilege. My question is, do you think there is a possibility that folks who filed/downgraded in October and if they are current right now, they have better possibility of getting a GC than folks who are stuck at TSC since 2012? Is it because downgraded folks' applications are low-hanging fruit? They don't need medicals, 485J etc and interviews are also getting exempted - is that the reason?

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Those who downgraded are not from the 2012 filers . Those who did are the ones who wanted to get the EAD (Bird in hand) . But they will need to wait as their application needs to processed from scratch . YOu are a 2012 filer and just need your RFE to be issued and submitted to the USCIS.

If you have not changed employers since the last RFE, you could get the GC withing 2-3 weeks of submitting the RFE as your Sept date is way past the current dates . If have changed employers since the last RFE ,it might add a week as they need to update your case with the supplement-J .
2012 filers have to wait few weeks (as less as 2-3 ) as the case is mostly Pre-adjudicated others might have a wait of few months.

Good thing is that none of the October filers' applications have gone to TSC. It is either NBC, Nebraska or SRC (another texas center).

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Originally Posted by Moveon

Those who downgraded are not from the 2012 filers . Those who did are the ones who wanted to get the EAD (Bird in hand) . But they will need to wait as their application needs to processed from scratch . YOu are a 2012 filer and just need your RFE to be issued and submitted to the USCIS.

If you have not changed employers since the last RFE, you could get the GC withing 2-3 weeks of submitting the RFE as your Sept date is way past the current dates . If have changed employers since the last RFE ,it might add a week as they need to update your case with the supplement-J .
2012 filers have to wait few weeks (as less as 2-3 ) as the case is mostly Pre-adjudicated others might have a wait of few months.

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Thank you @Moveon and @vsivarama. Most of 2012 TSC folks have not received RFE and wondering whether TSC is busy issuing receipts for downgraded folks (~400K) and that is what is keeping them busy or dedicating its resources to processing EB1 cases because they want to clear it first?!

Sorry about an off topic post but posting here due to the activity on this thread.
I mailed in my EAD/AP renewal documents to Dallas Lockbox last week, but it looks like USPS has lost my mail (or hopefully just delayed). Tracking shows 'In transit - delay' for last few days. I am going to wait for another week or so to see if the documents get delivered. If I don't see an update by then, can I just mail the documents again? What happens if USCIS receives multiple applications? Will they just reject the one received later? Any anyone had any experience with something like this?

This is our 7th EAD application, last renewal we got RFE for pics (and 1 year extension instead of 2) and now this !

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Good thing is that none of the October filers' applications have gone to TSC. It is either NBC, Nebraska or SRC (another texas center).

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I think TSC and SRC are same. Texas Service center issues receipts starting with SRC...

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Originally Posted by ak7419

Thank you @Moveon and @vsivarama. Most of 2012 TSC folks have not received RFE and wondering whether TSC is busy issuing receipts for downgraded folks (~400K) and that is what is keeping them busy or dedicating its resources to processing EB1 cases because they want to clear it first?!

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I am following Trackitt and saw one EB2 September 2009 (TSC) candidate getting an RFE for I-485 Supplement J + Medical. It may vary well be a one off case, but keeping my fingers crossed. Sometimes, when it rains, it pours...in a good way that is :-)
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

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Originally Posted by ak7419

Thank you @Moveon and @vsivarama. Most of 2012 TSC folks have not received RFE and wondering whether TSC is busy issuing receipts for downgraded folks (~400K) and that is what is keeping them busy or dedicating its resources to processing EB1 cases because they want to clear it first?!

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TSC has historically been a lot slower than NSC. Not sure why. Could it just be the attitude towards immigration ? If not why would they have not fixed it long ago.

I really hope that no visas are wasted, it would be a criminal waste . Again plz reach out to your members of congress to appraise them of the situation and request the USCIS to issue all GCs for this fiscal. There is not much time left . Be polite and don't trash past policies or leaders .


I had posted this earlier https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...tions)/page355



we need to have both political and Biz pressure . I will repeat this Please mail your members of congress , it won't take more then 10 mins .

If some of you are working in Google, MSFT, Adobe , Facebook, Amazon etc then you can request your HR to escalate upto the CEOs . These companies are sympathetic to such causes and can help pressurize the admin to get the ball rolling . Again , we are only requesting the USCIS to do its job of issuing GCs which they are duty bound to and nothing extra .

If it helps you guys , I just framed a response that you could copy paste . So should not take you more than 2-3 mins to send this out . Please do send it ASAP .


Senators : https://www.senate.gov/general/conta...nators_cfm.cfm
Representative : https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
There is a web form where you put your name and address and in a text box your grievance (Pick "Immigration" from the category drop box) . Copy paste the same for the two senators and your congress person.

Dear <Name of your Representative /Senator>
I would like to draw your attention to the plight of backlogged Indian and Chinese immigrants in the Employment Based Categories 2 and 3 (EB2/EB3) . Hundreds of thousands of us along with our families have a predicted wait of 10s of years due to the broken immigration laws that put legal immigrants coming from India and China at a severe disadvantage. Many of them will sadly age out by the time they get their Green Cards.
This Immigration Fiscal (Oct-2020 to Sept-2021) there is a Spillover of 120K Green Cards into the Employment Category that must be utilized by September 2021, effectively making this a "use it or lose it " case. Over the last 2 bulletins the dates have been moved significantly thanks to the intervention of the new leadership at the DHS. But precious time was lost at the start of the fiscal where dates were stalled.

I kindly request that you use what ever is in your power to request the USCIS enable the forward movement of Green Cards for India/China EB-2 and EB-3 in the coming bulletins as with the current rate it seems unlikely that they will be able to issue the 120K extra green cards in the employment based categories by September. We are not requesting any extra Green Cards or for a special legislation. We are only requesting the USCIS to commit on not wasting a single employment based visa this fiscal and the coming . I hope that you would be able to contact the USCIS and get their commitment to not waste any employment based Green Cards and to advance the "Final Action" dates for India and China EB2/3 .

Sincerely ,
<Your Name + dependents>

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Originally Posted by phkb2020

I think TSC and SRC are same. Texas Service center issues receipts starting with SRC...

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Oops. My bad. SRC also has the lowest biometrics appointments going out for October filers.

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Originally Posted by Moveon

TSC has historically been a lot slower than NSC. Not sure why. Could it just be the attitude towards immigration ? If not why would they have not fixed it long ago.

I really hope that no visas are wasted, it would be a criminal waste . Again plz reach out to your members of congress to appraise them of the situation and request the USCIS to issue all GCs for this fiscal. There is not much time left . Be polite and don't trash past policies or leaders .

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Asking out of ignorance, how do you know which service center is processing your case? For my 485, it says USCIS National Benefits Center in Lee's Summit MO. How do we find out which Service Center is the case part of ?

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Originally Posted by ak7419

Hi @Moveon - I don't want to offend anyone and everyone deserves GC as it is not a privilege. My question is, do you think there is a possibility that folks who filed/downgraded in October and if they are current right now, they have better possibility of getting a GC than folks who are stuck at TSC since 2012? Is it because downgraded folks' applications are low-hanging fruit? They don't need medicals, 485J etc and interviews are also getting exempted - is that the reason?

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Unfortunately downgrade is not black and white. The question you have asked is now hindsight. People who downgraded in October 2010 had to see dates moving 1 day, 2 days for nearly 2 years and they have every right to get out from the rut.

I only made my critical points against downgrading after January bulletin, when they stopped accepting filing dates. All these documents I-944, I-693, I-485, I-485J, I-131, I-765, I-140 (downgrades) are just going to take time to process. And all the downgrades are sent to TSC which in turn screwed up you guys.

They could have very least moved EB2 I dates to May 2010 back in July 2020, which would at the very minimum greened people like you, idliman, smuggymba few people I remember waiting.

But all I got branded as obnoxious, selfish and what not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A7jX4Xvi9Y
FY22 275K from CO

E. @TRAVELGOV BEGINS HOSTING MONTHLY YOUTUBE LIVE “CHATS WITH CHARLIE”
@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2021 at 1:00 pm EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin. Questions can be emailed to VisaBulletin@state.gov ahead of the event with "Chat with Charlie Question" in the subject line. Questions will also be taken via the YouTube Live Chat and will be answered in real-time. The event is intended to address issues of general interest related to the content of the Visa Bulletin, and no policy, case, or post specific questions will be accepted.

Was just hearing Charlie Oppenheim and a question was put up to him about the future date movement for EB-2 and EB-3 and he responded, for EB-2/3 I and C, he expects to move the dates aggressively for the next few months.

Summary of CO's talk:

* Approvals will "skyrocket" next half of year.
* Fall downs from EB1 will come to EB2 soon.
* EB2 and EB3 dates will accelerate.
* EB2 and EB3 will likely reach their final action date this year (But, he did say that he doesn't yet have the visibility into downgrade cases filed on october)
* He has been talking every month with USCIS to use up their numbers.
* He expects huge spillover next year too. Minimum of 275k (I don't understand how he is getting that number)

Dramatic movement for EB2I for the coming months :o

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Summary of CO's talk:

* Approvals will "skyrocket" next half of year.
* Fall downs from EB1 will come to EB2 soon.
* EB2 and EB3 dates will accelerate.
* EB2 and EB3 will likely reach their final action date this year (But, he did say that he doesn't yet have the visibility into downgrade cases filed on october)
* He has been talking every month with USCIS to use up their numbers.
* He expects huge spillover next year too. Minimum of 275k (I don't understand how he is getting that number)

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I see only one reason for TSC not sending RFEs based on this info, openly defying and deliberately wasting numbers.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Summary of CO's talk:

* Approvals will "skyrocket" next half of year.
* Fall downs from EB1 will come to EB2 soon.
* EB2 and EB3 dates will accelerate.
* EB2 and EB3 will likely reach their final action date this year (But, he did say that he doesn't yet have the visibility into downgrade cases filed on october)
* He has been talking every month with USCIS to use up their numbers.
* He expects huge spillover next year too. Minimum of 275k (I don't understand how he is getting that number)

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Do not underestimate the interfilers. They will still use up their numbers in an attempt to jump back messing up Charlie's calculations.

If any body is logged in the Charlies chat, please ask why his database cannot identify the EB2/EB3 applicants based on A number?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

If any body is logged in the Charlies chat, please ask why his database cannot identify the EB2/EB3 applicants based on A number?

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Don't know whether this answers your question, but he said that only once USCIS presses a button, a application enters his database. And it usually takes some time after you file at USCIS that he gets that information.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Don't know whether this answers your question, but he said that only once USCIS presses a button, a application enters his database. And it usually takes some time after you file at USCIS that he gets that information.

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No, he was stating earlier that he cannot figure out a person is on Eb2 or EB3 if he has multiple petitions in his database. I was trying to see if he can get the information using A number.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

No, he was stating earlier that he cannot figure out a person is on Eb2 or EB3 if he has multiple petitions in his database. I was trying to see if he can get the information using A number.

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Don't we have any ex-trackitters or qeshehmkers working at USCIS? :)

Pretty much what we have been predicting except we are very confident that the spillover next year wont be 275K. Perhaps CO meant total visa available (which would mean spillover could be 135K.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Summary of CO's talk:

* Approvals will "skyrocket" next half of year.
* Fall downs from EB1 will come to EB2 soon.
* EB2 and EB3 dates will accelerate.
* EB2 and EB3 will likely reach their final action date this year (But, he did say that he doesn't yet have the visibility into downgrade cases filed on october)
* He has been talking every month with USCIS to use up their numbers.
* He expects huge spillover next year too. Minimum of 275k (I don't understand how he is getting that number)

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As per Charlie FY 2022 available visas for EB could be a minimum of 275K! Hope that comes true. A lot of 2012, 2013 and 2014 folks can see some relief.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

As per Charlie FY 2022 available visas for EB could be a minimum of 275K! Hope that comes true. A lot of 2012, 2013 and 2014 folks can see some relief.

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All of the people who have filed in October 2020 should be greened some time next FY, my estimate would be start of 3rd quarter April 2022.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

All of the people who have filed in October 2020 should be greened some time next FY, my estimate would be start of 3rd quarter April 2022.

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and all TSC folks who filed in 2012 who became current five or six months ago will continue to wait for their RFE to be issued...lol