EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

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Originally Posted by fudge-it

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

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You will get ur gc before oct 2012

Quote:

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Originally Posted by fudge-it

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

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Its Hard to estimate that without seeing the latest inventory data. But my guesstimate is that everyone in eb2I with a priority date less than march 30 2008 should comfortably get their GC by Sep 2012. It could be better but it's not likely that it will be any worse.

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Its Hard to estimate that without seeing the latest inventory data. But my guesstimate is that everyone in eb2I with a priority date less than march 30 2008 should comfortably get their GC by Sep 2012. It could be better but it's not likely that it will be any worse.

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This is true assuming HR3012 doesn't happen.

Hi Guys- sorry had a quick questions. Moderators pls re-post to appropriate forum. Need a quick answer and this thread has most visibility, hence posting here.

In Form I-485,

Part 4 is Accomodation for Individuals with Disabilities and Impairements.

Do we need to leave it blank or check NO if we have no disability/impairement.

Because the question asks Are you requesting an coomodation because of your disability and/or impairement. So technically, you could have a disability and still not request accomodation or in the other case have no disability/impairement.

Maybe i am reading too much into it. I am just wanting to make sure everything is exact.

It would help if people tell me what they have put here.

Thanks,



I've read instances where they are very strict on forms being imcomplete

Check NO, if not applicable. DO NOT LEAVE IT BLANK.

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Originally Posted by funnysummer2005

Hi Guys- sorry had a quick questions. Moderators pls re-post to appropriate forum. Need a quick answer and this thread has most visibility, hence posting here.

In Form I-485,

Part 4 is Accomodation for Individuals with Disabilities and Impairements.

Do we need to leave it blank or check NO if we have no disability/impairement.

Because the question asks Are you requesting an coomodation because of your disability and/or impairement. So technically, you could have a disability and still not request accomodation or in the other case have no disability/impairement.

Maybe i am reading too much into it. I am just wanting to make sure everything is exact.

It would help if people tell me what they have put here.

Thanks,



I've read instances where they are very strict on forms being imcomplete

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Hey.I see couple of posts here..saying that,

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if there no movement in coming VB (March VB, April,) then we can only expect next big movement in Oct 2014.

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However, I was wondering that, next FY 2013, starting Oct 2012, November 2012 VB should have another movement, Correct ??
Why people are saying it would be in Oct 2014 ?? Why can't we have movement in Oct 2012 VB or Oct 2013 VB. Please throw some light here !!!

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

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** Likes likes likes and super likes ** (Used to facebook too much :) )
Very good summary. Awesome.

I thought there would to lots of filings in Jan and by the time March VB is out, USCIS would be flooded with applications already. Jan VB was a big move. May be I'm wrong, I'm still a newbie to these, you look like an expert.

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

..........

Good Luck to All!!!

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This is a great post .. Thanks WillyWonka !

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Hey.I see couple of posts here..saying that, .

However, I was wondering that, next FY 2012, starting Oct 2012 or November 2012 VB should have another movement, Correct ??
Why people are saying it would be in Oct 2014 ?? Why can't we have movement in Oct 2012 VB or Oct 2013 VB. Please throw some light here !!!

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tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on Jan 03, 2012:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Thanks Spec! I will post updated numbers in about 2 weeks.

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suninphx,

Two weeks further on, here are my figures as of Jan 17, 2012 for Trackitt EB2-I Primary cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 107 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 278 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 286 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 -- 176 cases

October and November numbers are already slightly higher than I was expecting, but my assumptions may be slightly wrong. There is no way to test them at present.

Spec,

nice explantion. For say the mar bulletin moves to jan 2011( which i pray doesnt stop there...being my priority date at feb 2011) . people from jan 2011 have to wait for defnitely some where around end of 2014 or 2015 for the dates to move right :( ....is my assumption correct .

my assumption is that each year we have 25k visa's available ...then it will take 3 years atleast reduce the demand data by 75K.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

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mesan,

I don't really want to speculate, but your timescale looks right for the figures you've used. The dates will probably move forward slightly before the numbers are exhausted.

Who knows, maybe CO will have a new trick up his sleeve!

It's just how I see it and why I don't think people should expect the the same movement to be repeated at the beginning of FY2013 as we have seen recently.

Thanks for the reply... i agree with your post.. few more years of wait

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Originally Posted by Spectator

mesan,

I don't really want to speculate, but your timescale looks right for the figures you've used. The dates will probably move forward slightly before the numbers are exhausted.

Who knows, maybe CO will have a new trick up his sleeve!

It's just how I see it and why I don't think people should expect the the same movement to be repeated at the beginning of FY2013 as we have seen recently.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Two weeks further on, here are my figures as of Jan 17, 2012 for Trackitt EB2-I Primary cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 107 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 278 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 286 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 -- 176 cases

October and November numbers are already slightly higher than I was expecting, but my assumptions may be slightly wrong. There is no way to test them at present.

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Spec,

Thanks!

Here are my number

Jan - July 2007 --- 811
Aug07- Mar 08 ----585

Though Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers are steadily increasing they have tapered off in last few days. Eventually once things settle , I do expect Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers less than about 100 compared to Jan -Jul 2007. Also, trackitt has become relevant (again) because of rapid movment IMO. So trackitt % representation should by closer to the historic one now.

Will follow up by end of Jan.

Spec,

Thanks for quick reply. I appreciate your time, efforts and willingness to share knowledge.
Kudos to you !!

one more quick question,

According to your reply

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Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

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So, if USCIS wanted to have 50k cases onhand, So for further 15K cases they might have a small movement ( 3 or 4 Months ) .. Correct ??

Thank you

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

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Nice answers.. I have a typical question, may apply to some mass here.
I am sure most of the employers have exploited folks like us, and now since some of us are getting GC, or at least getting EAD/AP approved, we are getting bit relieved and join other jobs etc...

I personally had a bad taste and gone through some harassment. hence i care less about the employer.

I had a question, while EAD/AP is approved, as some of us progress toward 180 days,
1) Can we take another (2nd) employment (same kind of job) along with the current one before 180 days are completed , on the EAD card? I know some of you may say how will you manage and all, but thats just an operational part, what about the legal issues? do anyone know? has this thought cross anyones mind yet?

if this might not be a right forum , please pardon me.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

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Congratulations. Folks.

I have been silent observer so far..
EAD/AP approval mail for me today. I filed in Dec, Dec 2007 priority date.

I have observed one thing, that USCIS has not approved any GC beyond the priority date of Aug 2007.. have you all seen any?

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Originally Posted by needid

Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

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That's the beauty of EAd or GC. You can take as many jobs with whoever.

Only that when the time to adjudicate comes, you should have one job that is same or similar to your underlying 485.

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Originally Posted by Dec13th2007

Nice answers.. I have a typical question, may apply to some mass here.
I am sure most of the employers have exploited folks like us, and now since some of us are getting GC, or at least getting EAD/AP approved, we are getting bit relieved and join other jobs etc...

I personally had a bad taste and gone through some harassment. hence i care less about the employer.

I had a question, while EAD/AP is approved, as some of us progress toward 180 days,
1) Can we take another (2nd) employment (same kind of job) along with the current one before 180 days are completed , on the EAD card? I know some of you may say how will you manage and all, but thats just an operational part, what about the legal issues? do anyone know? has this thought cross anyones mind yet?

if this might not be a right forum , please pardon me.

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Spec,

Thanks for quick reply. I appreciate your time, efforts and willingness to share knowledge.
Kudos to you !!

one more quick question,

According to your reply
So, if USCIS wanted to have 50k cases on hand, So for further 15K cases they might have a small movement ( 3 or 4 Months ) .. Correct ??

Thank you

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I was using figures to demonstrate the concept, although they were quite close.

15k is not a small number. That would require 8 or 9 months or so of movement based on the figures I am using.

Bottom line coming out of this page... hope HR3012 goes through

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Originally Posted by Dec13th2007

Congratulations. Folks.

I have been silent observer so far..
EAD/AP approval mail for me today. I filed in Dec, Dec 2007 priority date.

I have observed one thing, that USCIS has not approved any GC beyond the priority date of Aug 2007.. have you all seen any?

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Congrats! That is good news. I think you may be the first Dec filer, from the forum, that has got an EAD/AP approval.

Thats true Q ! Learning more and more about this.
I just learned that EAD cards will come with AP, however it is just one entry, we can't do multiple entry.. is that true?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's the beauty of EAd or GC. You can take as many jobs with whoever.

Only that when the time to adjudicate comes, you should have one job that is same or similar to your underlying 485.

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Originally Posted by Dec13th2007

Thats true Q ! Learning more and more about this.
I just learned that EAD cards will come with AP, however it is just one entry, we can't do multiple entry.. is that true?

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In the AP form, there's a question whether or not you want a single entry or multiple entry. In general its a multiple entry.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec,

Thanks!

Here are my number

Jan - July 2007 --- 811
Aug07- Mar 08 ----585

Though Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers are steadily increasing they have tapered off in last few days. Eventually once things settle , I do expect Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers less than about 100 compared to Jan -Jul 2007. Also, trackitt has become relevant (again) because of rapid movment IMO. So trackitt % representation should by closer to the historic one now.

Will follow up by end of Jan.

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suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

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Spec reported that the recent value may be 4.5 % ..best values have been up to 7%

Hi Guyz... This forum has been really helpful in providing lot of infomation on GC ...

My PD id 08/25/2008 and I sent in my Application on 11- Jan and was received by USCIS on 12th Jan...

How soon do I get my recept notice usually..?

Kolaveri

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

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gkjppp,

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals in the DOS Reports, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

More people initially add their case to Trackitt, but never update it with the approval. These become "dead" cases on Trackitt.

So, for applications, if 20% never update to approval, the % would become:

FY2009 - 9.54%
FY2010 - 8.40%
FY2011 - 6.72% (educated guess)

It's actually quite difficult to know the true %.

Of course, the % for different Categories and Countries vary enormously.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

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The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

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Yeah my understading is about 5-6% of users are on trackitt. Ofcourse with Spec's post we have much more insight about percentages.

Also the number 2500/month was revised to 2200/month(including porting if I am not wrong). And cases are still getting added to trackitt. So if actual number is between 1500-2200 then it may give some handle on DD.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

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As per PERM numbers , we should have similar numbers from Apr'08-Dec'08, but so far, we could see only 176 cases on trackitt, that means, people didnt file their AoS even after 2 weeks, they have been current, may be they are little lazy after Feb VB.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

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Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

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Originally Posted by mysati

Congrats! That is good news. I think you may be the first Dec filer, from the forum, that has got an EAD/AP approval.

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I received my EAD & AP approval y'day.

SC:NSC
PD:12/06/2007
MD:12/01/2011
RD:12/02/2011
ND:12/05/2011
EAD & AP Approved: 01/17/2012
FP: Not yet received.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

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Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

Unless there is a large spike in the # of applications between now and March Bulletin or CO decides to avoid an inventory big enough to sustain for 2+ years, is it safe to assume that we will see another 3-12 month movement ??

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

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Dude, were you back from India? so for no news on NVC receipts, we are almost done with Jan.day by day chances to become current is running away< anyway its not in my hand, only thing is i need to renew my H1 may be two more times,i got 2 times 1 year renewal based on 140 approval, 100% based on client letter>. also your attorney told <50% chances for this month movement .Well looking at 12000 makes to think demand destruction worked or may be folks are busy in filing/finding attorney/shots/negotiating with employer. We are not sure on anything.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

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IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase.

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Teddy,

That is an extremely good point and, at the moment, will offset much of the 20% who never update with an approval.

I found that insight very useful.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.

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Sun the numbers are fairly close to the average for most months they are heavy in Jan and Feb 2008. The 2200 per month figure if you remember is based on the 75 - 25 EB2 - EB3 Split and 2.125 dependent ratio (1 in 8 families having non US born kids). So anyone who has different ratio's will get a lower figure here itself then demand destruction should be applied. Refer the post by Spec in facts and data for details
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

It is too early to speculate January demand yet...but the number is still unusually lower. However let's still give it at least a month more before determining the potential demand.

Also as Teddy says, OR of 0.8 looks more or less likely, so between July-07 and Mar'08, @1800 per month is the best estimate right now, which translates to a demand of about 14000. Since around 10K is already given out for EB2-IC, 14K is more or less "remaining", so 15th March 2008 is the last date that will get GC in FY 2012 - right in line with what was predicted.

Unfortunately, this reduces the likelihood of a March movement. The USCIS may finally have received "enough" applications. I have postulated that if we see a demand of over 2000 before the March bulletin, the dates will stall, since that demand is sufficient to consume the monthly spillover. If the date stalls once, it will remain that way (or worse, retrogress) since the demand will continue building up.

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Applications doesn't equal demand....officially anyway. Until it becomes actual real demand, they can keep moving dates ahead. I'm not saying whether they will or will not but I don't know if there's enough real demand just yet given the processing times needed to adjudicate applications. I expect some movement in the next bulletin but I don't think it'll be a whole year.