OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?
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OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?
'qblogfan' any info to add from your site?
Congratulations to Q and to all those whose PD became current. (Looks like Q is off to his immunization appt.)
The PD will not cross June 1st, 2007 this FY year. Next real movement may be during May'12. c u all in 9 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by immitrickz
I guess both of your source are pretty close to reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Looking from the negative side, Does Guru's here think have any chance to move into early 2008 atleast by end of 2012?
Since there are lot of eb2 row and eb1 pending and apart from it more than expected portings, is there any chance that eb2 IC will see atleast 5000 to 10000 spill overs for next year?
personally with this depressing mood, i feel that dates might not cross July '2007 even by the end of 2012. Not sure my depressing mood is thinking...
Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy any input FY2012?
Not yet, we still have Sept'11.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Sachin is Out but Yuvi is coming.
I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I was wondering how did you get the bulletin in memo/pdf style... I think I figured out.. clicking on "View as Printer Friendly PDF" in the visa bulletin page will re direct to the PDF link...
Quote:
Originally Posted by th5000th
Zoroark, don't really just disappear. We need people to at least occasionally drop by and keep the flame going.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoroark
I almost completely agree with you. There has been ~ 3K totaling to 28K of movement by this bulletin and the best case maximum we could expect would be another 5K. Looks like the conservative calculation of 33K SOFAD will be either barely be satisfied or we may miss it by 2K. Realistically the dates may range from 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Most PWMB's will miss it again this year, as Spec had written earlier the dates may open only by May 2012, I hope they put in some thought about having the fresh intake a little earlier though. Even this year they started the SOFAD application much earlier than the last quarter. Since this scenario is unprecedented let’s wait and watch.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Completely agree with you, well said.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
I will be here. And hopefully so would be quite a few others.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Not the best of the days for many on this forum, But I've just joined the forum and was wondering why is it that most of the movement happens in the summer every year, I have a vague understanding its the spillovers, But can somebody, not necessarily a Guru :) share their gyan on this aspect.
Thanks
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
EB2IC should at least move to early/late July 2007 to see 5k PWMB.
If EB2IC stay at 15APR2007 in September'11 bulletin also, then USCIS will only see about 1.5k EB2IC-PWMB!
How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D
Same as the one with 16April2007 PD, which is a Monday!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dojoapril
Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dojoapril
It isn't that bad guys. Just a few months ago may '07 was better than the best prediction and we probably will still hit that.
1. I am still very very hopeful that the dates will move into early 2008 (April/may) in the next bulletin and then retrogress in order to pre-adjudicate for next year since next year for sure the current backlog will clear. I thought they may move in this bulletin since if they could clear the AoS backlog this FY then CP could have used any leftover visas, but they don't seem to have enough visas.
2. Its a little disappointing for people with PD's in June/July '07 since it looks like they are going to just miss it, but for people with PD's ahead of July '07 it was always a long shot this year.
3. If they have restricted the movement to provide visas to EB2ROW and EB1 (not sure of that but that's what folks here are saying), that in the long run is a good thing since restricting categories that are current to provide visas to IC will cause more delays in the future. Your viewpoint on this may depend upon where your PD is.
Also, Since 2006 and 2007 are the same as far as Perm is concerned, all things remaining the same can we expect the same movement next year, of about 1 year? Maybe too early to say that....
Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, pch and other Experts,
After looking at the August Bulletin, do you think there is a possibility that Visa #s for this fiscal year would be exhausted in August itself? I know of a few cases last year when they were current in July, did not get approved until September and finally they were told by local offices and USCIS service centers that no more visa #s are available.
My PD is 11/29/2006, transferred from VSC to TSC in 2007. God knows what is going on although I have been fortunate enough to know via InfoPass that it has been pre-adjudicated in 2009. I am now scared with the dreaded possibility of not hearing anything until August and then finally they tell me that no more Visa #s are available? Can you please advise on the overall issue as it would benefit everyone. Thank you.
Aaaiga...nem chukalaQuote:
Originally Posted by Dojoapril
[rough translation] Darn it ...missed it
[Read in the tone of hindi cricket commentator] Ek aur jhandi ka patan
[Rough translation] another one bites the dust.(though in a sad way)
Just trying to lighten the mood guys...i know its depressing, whats more depressing is light at the end of the tunnel is may 2012. shouldnt be complaining, i know people have been waiting for long. But what happened since morning is a testament to the saying the world lives on hope.
Thanks lprseeker. Appreciate it. Will count on you should we need something.Quote:
Originally Posted by lprseeker
Couldn't be said any better what you just said here.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
The silven line is that Sep is yet to come and secondly any bad news this year reduces the bad news next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by mygctracker
Thanks 3M and all others for their wishes. Appreciate it. I will be around regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
Next year as I said the low end for SOFAD is 12-15K. But with this bad news .. I would bump it up to at least 20K. I know that also is not assuring for those waiting to file 485. Unfortunately don't want to create false hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
Its more like bhajji. The bulletin could be a dark horse or could be a bummer.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
In general, if there is going to be any movement in September then the EB2 ROW and EB1 consumption shouldn't be too high during July. That's our only hope for any further movement in September. So we will keep watching trackitt and update our thinking on whether Sep will bring any further good news.
Does this bulletin proves all our calculations are wrong????????????????
http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36095
I-140 Validity and Portability
�� AC21 §106(c)
�� Matter of Al Wazzan
o Application for “same or similar” adjudication
�� USCIS is considering a proposal to require aliens to file an application
with fee for adjudication by USCIS to determine whether the new position
is in the “same or similar” occupational classification which could be
adjudicated prior to the adjustment application greatly benefitting visa
regressed cases;
does it mean no need to file new perm and I-140 when moved to different employer?
Given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand, I would say the chance of wasting visas or running out of visas is extremely small.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
also Q ...congrats and congrats to all others who got current.
I don't think they are referring to filing a separate perm and I-140. As of now there is no formal way to file AC21. This proposal may introduce a formal form and fees to file AC21.Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
You can feel a lil better than the 15th April 2007 folks:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dojoapril
Thanks Q. When you said, "given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand", I hope you did not mean anything sarcastic :) I am sure you were depressed like many others (including myself) seeing the August visa bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
On a side note, it is depressing to note that both NSC and TSC are approving cases in a completely random fashion. Sucks big time ! People who have filed I-485s after me are approved, people who have PDs weeks / months after me are approved.
Q
congrats
I think the chances of dates going beyond 2007 July is almost none, obviously buliding pipeline is something they may not consider until the reality hits. Bad news for PWMB, may be this fy will settle at May1,2007 and till May2012 the dates may reach Aug2007 and the only choice will be making EBIC Current or atleast pushing it to 2010/2011 to approve all the CP cases and send the spillover to EB3
Demand Data that's released yesterday shows that there's a 10.5 k demand still with CIS.
Add another 3 k for this 5 week movement.
Add another 250-500 porting cases + Misc
This will bring inventory to 14 K. Unless DOS has anything closer to 10k visas in kitty for September, I'd be surprised to see any movement. It's not DOS+CIS's job to build inventory, at least that's what they appeared to convey with VB movement this time. may be I turned pessimistic with the outcome or through shear despair:(
Can it be that USCIS is just trying to play it safe for this month so that they can open a mini floodgate (for PDs till early 2008) next month?
I still cant make sense of why people are saying that we have to wait until May 2012 for further movement? That would be weird isn't it because the USCIS would have no EB2 demand in the pipeline (because no I-485s have been filed after Jul/Aug 2007)? So how will they use the usual EB2 visa numbers for 2012 + any spillovers if there is nothing in the pipeline - it is taking at least 6 months for I-485 to be adjudicated.
The difference is you are assuming there will be spillover in next year and DOS/CIS will not assume that till they see atleast 2 quarters and confirmQuote:
Originally Posted by gchopeful123
everyone used to say July but this year it all started in May, so hope they will do it sooner than May in next year and that would give may be enough time to use the spillover for EB2
Wish the same from my side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q, atleast good to hear 10-15k will be low end of spill overs for next year, which says that people in early 2008 do have chance to get EAD atleast end of next year.
"Apirl Fool" may be now it should be changed as "Augest Fool"... USCIS restored the same site and paying hide and seek.. no changes what so ever.. lets hold on and wait till next bullitin to know if the there is going to be a full \ mini \ No flood gates open...:(
sha_kus,Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
No, because China is shown as an individual Country due to its expected usage in FB & EB. That won't change.
As this year, whilst Countries are using their initial 7% allocation, we might expect the EB2-C Cut Off Date to advance more rapidly than EB2-I at the beginning of FY2012 because they have the same number of visas available as EB2-I but less cases per month.
Once EB2-C starts using spillover visas next year, they will share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.
Q,
Now the hiatus has finally died down, I can finally congratulate you on becoming Current from 01 August.
Wishing you a short wait until they pick up your case and approve it!
Here goes my first post after following this blog for quite sometime now.
Congrats to all those folks who got current with the latest VB.
As far as to why dates haven't moved that well, I know folks have been giving their thoughts on the same but does the current state of the economy have anything to do with being cautious about the dates ? Perhaps they didn't want to get too aggressive with the dates and cause a stir.
On the other hand, we have to accept the reality that dates might not make more jumps as good as we have seen the last few VB's.
Now that the VB has come out wonder what the Guru's of this forum think about the number crunching and what can we expect in the next few VB.
Cheers,
KK
No I was not sarcastic. Strict FIFO will not happen for multiple reasons. But if your date is current then you should get it within a month max. Otherwise its a problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Spec answered this. The only thing I would correct is that China will actually see faster date movements simply because their demand is thinner than India. And then again May 2012 onwards India and China will catch together.Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
100% chance that people until Q1 2008 will be able to file 485 by Sep 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
Q,
Also, a big thank to your source for such accurate feedback on visa bulletins. The predictions have been spot on for the last couple of bulletins. Hope we will get similar input in future too and wishing you a quick GC approval!