EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

Thanks vsivarama!

My Prevailing wage is going on, so PERM approval might come in a year! So looks like I should at least start exploring the move to the old employer to get the foot in the door.

I was thinking of filing EB3 I140 first using PP, get approved (hopefully) and then file I485.
- If PP is denied and EB2 filing date reaches Feb 2012, then apply using EB2.
- If PP approved, then apply using EB3

This approach though delays the getting foot in the door fast.

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All the best!! Whatever approach you use, just keep monitoring the bulletin so that you can act when the tide turns against you. There could be a retrogression end of 2022. If the numbers are properly utilized, the dates should be current at least for folks before 2013. But as you probably may have learnt US immigration is a roller coaster ride... If you think of 485 as a giant wheel then the 2012 filers were allowed a seat in the giant wheel but then the wheel stopped with them on the top for 9 years. They were not allowed to get off the wheel and we were not allowed to get in.

need some suggestion. I have filed Eb2/Eb3 downgrade with old employer. EB3 I140 is not yet approved.
my PD 06/10/2011. my new employer is still in process of filing labor.

1. Should I go for premium Eb3-I140 with old employer? I applied on Oct 26,2020
2. Or wait for Eb2 become current? its 10 days away/.. and ask old employer to interfile ?

Attorney is suggesting to not to go for premium .. but file new I1485 Eb2 application instead of interfile from eb3-eb2.

I really appreciate your inputs.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Well...I am not so sure after all :confused:. If you don't want them to accidentally approve it before July 1, then you might as well wait. It's all part of being foolproof. What's a few extra days after waiting for a decade??:)

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The best reason for not submitting it before July 1st is that they may look at it before dates are current and then shelve it for god knows how long because PD isn't current. Early GC is quite unlikely.

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Originally Posted by rsnake

The best reason for not submitting it before July 1st is that they may look at it before dates are current and then shelve it for god knows how long because PD isn't current. Early GC is quite unlikely.

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True that also! Mine is with a Field Office that has pretty decent reputation and hence a bit more optimistic. But you never know!

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Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b

Nobody is downgrading eb2 to eb3 that is a wrong analogy. It is like one buying both first class and second class ticket for the train. Goal of the passenger is to board the train. He has made himself eligible in both ways. He can decide which class to use.

As per the train management, they will have the number of tickets sold for each class since they don?t know which class passenger is going to choose, it may not be accurate.

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But the total passenger count does not change. lol.

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Originally Posted by MKPD2015

Hello Sivarama/Idliman/Aceman and other experts,

When people applied for downgrades from Eb2 to Eb3, how does USCIS count these numbers? Do they count the individual in both Eb2 and Eb3? If so, is it not a duplicate ? How will they be able to properly estimate the demand and move the dates if they count each downgrade application twice ?
Please let me know based on your understanding.

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My understanding is CO can easily get the count of downgraded applications and subtract that from EB2 numbers. He is most likely going to do it to move the dates. In case he opens the door for more people, he can always retrogress. Here is why I think he is going to do it; when an applicant files 485 then the underlying i140 counts. So if someone downgrades and files for 485, he is essentially asking USCIS to process his application using the EB3 i140. USCIS will not consider EB2 unless the applicant explicitly asks them to use EB2 i140 through interfiling. I believe CO has these scenarios factored in his math.

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Originally Posted by rsnake

The best reason for not submitting it before July 1st is that they may look at it before dates are current and then shelve it for god knows how long because PD isn't current. Early GC is quite unlikely.

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Possible. But the fact that the field office pulled the case from the shelf before the dates were current probably means they have no intention to shelve it again. Otherwise, they wouldn't have pulled it out considering the dates were not current at that time also.

Hello Experts - My company will be upgrading the I-140 (EB2 to EB3 downgrade filed in Nov 20) to premium processing when the FAD becomes current, which I'm expecting to happen in Aug'21 bulletin. They are charging 1000$ to interfile I-693 medicals along with it which my company will not pay. Do you recommend I bear that expenses and move on?
PS:Neither FP nor BM appointment received medical RFE..GOD knows when.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

My understanding is CO can easily get the count of downgraded applications and subtract that from EB2 numbers. He is most likely going to do it to move the dates. In case he opens the door for more people, he can always retrogress. Here is why I think he is going to do it; when an applicant files 485 then the underlying i140 counts. So if someone downgrades and files for 485, he is essentially asking USCIS to process his application using the EB3 i140. USCIS will not consider EB2 unless the applicant explicitly asks them to use EB2 i140 through interfiling. I believe CO has these scenarios factored in his math.

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Thank you, Sivarama. That is exactly my understanding as well. Otherwise, if CO does count an applicant in both the categories, then they are estimating the demand incorrectly. Also, I found one post in a telegram group (not able to post it here), once the downgrade is approved, the immigration bureau will delete the earliest(EB2) request category from state department's inventory request file and then will submit a request for new quota in new (EB3) category.
Now, if applicant wants to process his application in EB2, then that is where interfiling comes into picture, where applicant has to send a request specifically to USCIS to consider his application in EB2.

I totally agree with your post above, EB2 may move faster than EB3 (because of additional spillover from EB1, and thus EB2 having more visa numbers) next fiscal.

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Originally Posted by rave79

Hello Experts - My company will be upgrading the I-140 (EB2 to EB3 downgrade filed in Nov 20) to premium processing when the FAD becomes current, which I'm expecting to happen in Aug'21 bulletin. They are charging 1000$ to interfile I-693 medicals along with it which my company will not pay. Do you recommend I bear that expenses and move on?
PS:Neither FP nor BM appointment received medical RFE..GOD knows when.

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You don't need a lawyer to interfile I-693, so save yourself $1000. You can do that on your own. Opinions amongst experts are split whether you should interfile I-693 or if you should wait for medical RFE. The problem is that USCIS case tracker or even live agent on EMMA, may inaccurately report that your case is with the service center while it may be sitting at local field office. In that case if you send your interfile request to wrong office it may just get lost in a black-hole. If you haven't gone through bio-metrics yet then there is a good chance that your case file may still be at service center and in that case you can mail your interfile request to service center.

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Originally Posted by andhraguy

am22tech get you that for $30. I didn't try but heard from friends.

https://www.am22tech.com/birth-certi...sa-green-card/

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Thanks for the link! in that page where is it mentioned they get it done for $30........Seems like they charge $499 for getting the NABC...

Not sure if I stated the question clearly

'Will filing I-693 medicals expedite the 485 processing when filed together with I-140 PP upgrade by the company lawyers' ?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

I had a great experience with these guys: https://www.yourmaninindia.com/?module=concierge

I am from a more bribe-me-before-I-talk-to-you part of the country - and don't have local contacts that could help. YMII folks sent an actual person to the municipality office, their fee included the "convenience fee" paid to the local official - and USCIS happily accepted the document that they sent me.

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Thanks for the link......do they provide service in cities like Kolkata & Bhubaneswar...

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thanks for the link! in that page where is it mentioned they get it done for $30........Seems like they charge $499 for getting the NABC...

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Oh. sorry for that, I didn't use it so never looked into this in detail. $500 is not worth it. Pay Rs 5000 to your friend or relative in India they will do it happily.

Folks , Does anyone know whether EOS EAD and AP are processed together ?
If a SR is raised for Advanced Parole(outside the processing times) and it's approved , will USCIS approve AOS EAD with that ?

Thanks for the feedback.

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Originally Posted by rave79

Not sure if I stated the question clearly

'Will filing I-693 medicals expedite the 485 processing when filed together with I-140 PP upgrade by the company lawyers' ?

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I693 and I140 PP request go to separate locations. Send I693 yourself and save money as LightAtEndofTunnel said above. See the medicals thread on this.

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

Thanks for the link......do they provide service in cities like Kolkata & Bhubaneswar...

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They have a support line number on the website. You can ask them. Guys you need to do some homework yourself. :)

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Originally Posted by gsingh

Folks , Does anyone know whether EOS EAD and AP are processed together ?
If a SR is raised for Advanced Parole(outside the processing times) and it's approved , will USCIS approve AOS EAD with that ?

Thanks for the feedback.

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I expedited EAD and they approved a combo card. I just raised SR for my wife for AP a couple of weeks back, will let you know if they do the same by approving the combo card.

I see so many questions abt how/what approach to take while applying for 485. Sharing what I did, will share when i get my GC :)

Pre-Nov 2019 - Approved I-140 under EB2 with PD Sep-2010
Job Change - Nov 2019
New perm started - Jan 2020 (under EB3)
PWD and recruitment - Jan 2020 to Sep 2020
Perm filed 8th Sep 2020
Perm Approval - May 18 2021
Concurrent filing I-140 (PP), I-485, EAD, AP with medicals - June 17th 2021 (FAD under EB3 is post Sep 2010)
Awaiting for receipt numbers + I-140 PP decision.

Based in CALI so generally my cases goes to LIN (finger crossed)

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Originally Posted by monsieur

I see so many questions abt how/what approach to take while applying for 485. Sharing what I did, will share when i get my GC :)

Pre-Nov 2019 - Approved I-140 under EB2 with PD Sep-2010
Job Change - Nov 2019
New perm started - Jan 2020 (under EB3)
PWD and recruitment - Jan 2020 to Sep 2020
Perm filed 8th Sep 2020
Perm Approval - May 18 2021
Concurrent filing I-140 (PP), I-485, EAD, AP with medicals - June 17th 2021 (FAD under EB3 is post Sep 2010)
Awaiting for receipt numbers + I-140 PP decision.

Based in CALI so generally my cases goes to LIN (finger crossed)

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Similar case like yours

PD: Aug 2010 EB2 India
Job change: Nov 2018
New perm started - June 2019
Perm Filed: Oct 2020
Perm Approval May 4 2021
Concurrent filing I-140 (lawyer missed premium, will upgrade shortly), I-485, EAD, AP with no medicals(lawyer said wait for RFE) - June 17th 2021
Received text notices today (for primary only, from Nebraska ) for I-140,EAD/AP, Finger print

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I expedited EAD and they approved a combo card. I just raised SR for my wife for AP a couple of weeks back, will let you know if they do the same by approving the combo card.

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When you applied AOS with I-765 + I-131, USCIS treats it as a combo card request. AP can also be obtained to be granted entry as a parolee without an EAD. Since you applied for both, SR for one gets you both as its the combo card.

Chinese predictions / calcs (includes India): http://stats.niunational.org/

In other news, Chinese Telegram groups which scrap date everyday are tracking to 100% SO wastage unless USCIS picks up speed.

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Originally Posted by vidya_garu

PD: Aug 2010 EB2 India

Received text notices today (for primary only, from Nebraska ) for I-140,EAD/AP, Finger print

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Wow this was quick in terms of Finger print appointment. I am still waiting for receipts of all my applications.

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Wow this was quick in terms of Finger print appointment. I am still waiting for receipts of all my applications.

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not appointment, just a text notice, that fingerprint fees was accepted.

Does anyone have any data for how many EB2->3 downgrades took place last October? And how many of these have filed for PP? I wonder if there are a lot of unapproved I140s in addition to missing medicals. I think most downgrade I140s have not been approved in regular so far.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

I693 and I140 PP request go to separate locations. Send I693 yourself and save money as LightAtEndofTunnel said above. See the medicals thread on this.

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Thanks for this info..

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Originally Posted by vidya_garu

Similar case like yours

PD: Aug 2010 EB2 India
Job change: Nov 2018
New perm started - June 2019
Perm Filed: Oct 2020
Perm Approval May 4 2021
Concurrent filing I-140 (lawyer missed premium, will upgrade shortly), I-485, EAD, AP with no medicals(lawyer said wait for RFE) - June 17th 2021
Received text notices today (for primary only, from Nebraska ) for I-140,EAD/AP, Finger print

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What is the reason that some lawyers are still not filing with medicals? Are they trying to save the clients doctor's fees in case the dates retrogress and you don't get GC in 2 years and the medicals expire? If the lawyer wasn't an EB immigrant themselves, they wouldn't know that a few hundred dollars are not a big deal for most people working in the US for more than a decade. Don't they know that dates aren't going to retrogress because of new spillover visas this October so almost anyone applying now should get their GC in the next two years before medicals expire.

In the best scenario not sending medicals will cause a delay of at least 3 to 4 months in getting GC, and in the worst (unlikely) scenario people might miss their chance for GC for a very long time in case Congress passes a law to keep FB spillover visas with FB because of Covid.

Or maybe they don't want to send medicals so they can charge more money from the client to respond to the guaranteed RFE.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I expedited EAD and they approved a combo card. I just raised SR for my wife for AP a couple of weeks back, will let you know if they do the same by approving the combo card.

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Originally Posted by beagle

When you applied AOS with I-765 + I-131, USCIS treats it as a combo card request. AP can also be obtained to be granted entry as a parolee without an EAD. Since you applied for both, SR for one gets you both as its the combo card.

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Thanks Turbulent_Dragonfly and beagle. My ER for EAD was denied without request for evidence.
Thinking raising a SR for AP in the hope that EAD is approved as well. Do you suggest that or to try ER for EAD again or both?
This is time sensitive as my wife has a job offer and she cannot drag it for too long.

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Originally Posted by gsingh

Thanks Turbulent_Dragonfly and beagle. My ER for EAD was denied without request for evidence.
Thinking raising a SR for AP in the hope that EAD is approved as well. Do you suggest that or to try ER for EAD again or both?
This is time sensitive as my wife has a job offer and she cannot drag it for too long.

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Unfortunately if they already denied the ER, they will likely not consider it again. Regarding your wife's case, I have heard it explained like this: If you are the primary and try to seek ER for your dependent spouse, then there is no financial loss as you are still gainfully employed. The way I was able to do ER was because my license was expiring and my H1 was pending too so I was in real danger of losing the ability to drive. They did reject my wife's request to expedite EAD/AP as she already has a H1 and does not really need it.

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Originally Posted by gsingh

Thanks Turbulent_Dragonfly and beagle. My ER for EAD was denied without request for evidence.
Thinking raising a SR for AP in the hope that EAD is approved as well. Do you suggest that or to try ER for EAD again or both?
This is time sensitive as my wife has a job offer and she cannot drag it for too long.

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Check processing time/current date at your service center for AP, if it?s beyond your RD then you can submit SR for that.

If you can?t submit SR then keep calling to submit ER for EAD. I was shot down 2 times before getting lucky the 3rd time.

Good luck bud

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Originally Posted by montyp80

Check processing time/current date at your service center for AP, if it?s beyond your RD then you can submit SR for that.

If you can?t submit SR then keep calling to submit ER for EAD. I was shot down 2 times before getting lucky the 3rd time.

Good luck bud

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Thanks Monty. I will raise the SR as it's outside of the processing time of TSC.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Unfortunately if they already denied the ER, they will likely not consider it again. Regarding your wife's case, I have heard it explained like this: If you are the primary and try to seek ER for your dependent spouse, then there is no financial loss as you are still gainfully employed. The way I was able to do ER was because my license was expiring and my H1 was pending too so I was in real danger of losing the ability to drive. They did reject my wife's request to expedite EAD/AP as she already has a H1 and does not really need it.

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When I tried to ER the second time , I got the same answer from the agent that dependent's job loss is not a financial loss , but I was also told to try again after 30 days.
Some folks suggest to keep trying . I am not sure if anyone has had the success with ER being accepted after the earlier denial.

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Originally Posted by rsnake

What is the reason that some lawyers are still not filing with medicals? Are they trying to save the clients doctor's fees in case the dates retrogress and you don't get GC in 2 years and the medicals expire? If the lawyer wasn't an EB immigrant themselves, they wouldn't know that a few hundred dollars are not a big deal for most people working in the US for more than a decade. Don't they know that dates aren't going to retrogress because of new spillover visas this October so almost anyone applying now should get their GC in the next two years before medicals expire.

In the best scenario not sending medicals will cause a delay of at least 3 to 4 months in getting GC, and in the worst (unlikely) scenario people might miss their chance for GC for a very long time in case Congress passes a law to keep FB spillover visas with FB because of Covid.

Or maybe they don't want to send medicals so they can charge more money from the client to respond to the guaranteed RFE.

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Our lawyers are from a big law firm known for sluggishness.
Well, their reasoning was that
- Based on my PD, retrogression wouldn't possibly affect me, and I had to get my I140 approved as well.
- Better to wait for medical RFE - as that's what they strictly follow.

Our HR follows lawyers to the T

Question - Both my parents names are misspelled on my birth certificate - by one letter each (phoentically fine) and middle name is missing for one of them. My name is correct. Our attorney/immigration guy said since it's an EB case and not a FB case, it doesn't matter and I don't need affidavit or anything. Should I be worried?

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Question - Both my parents names are misspelled on my birth certificate - by one letter each (phoentically fine) and middle name is missing for one of them. My name is correct. Our attorney/immigration guy said since it's an EB case and not a FB case, it doesn't matter and I don't need affidavit or anything. Should I be worried?

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Just get an affidavit from your parents stating that their name is misspelled in your BC. My parents full names were not present in my BC, and my lawyer just asked to get affidavits stating the same.

I have already filed, so just wondering if I will get an RFE or something for this.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

I have already filed, so just wondering if I will get an RFE or something for this.

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I wouldn't worry about it. If you get a RFE, just submit the affidavit, that's what the lawyers will also suggest IMO

Birth certificate question :

On my spouse's birth certificate, the name field is left blank. Can we write her name by hand on the birth certificate ? OR Do we need 2 affidavits for her ? I thought I read somewhere that the name could be written by hand. Does anyone have any personal experience on this scenario ?

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Question - Both my parents names are misspelled on my birth certificate - by one letter each (phoentically fine) and middle name is missing for one of them. My name is correct. Our attorney/immigration guy said since it's an EB case and not a FB case, it doesn't matter and I don't need affidavit or anything. Should I be worried?

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My birth certificate was generated recently. It is considered as late registered so attorney suggested to get two affidavit one from parent and one from close relative and a school record that show father's name , date of birth . I got a letter from my school with above details and two affidavit. So far so good. Finger crossed.

Does anyone know when (or at which stage of processing..) exactly the case gets transferred to FO?

Also, I don't think we get a case update notification when the case is transferred to FO, I believe it's only when it's transferred to another SC. Can anyone confirm this?

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Originally Posted by montyp80

Does anyone know when (or at which stage of processing..) exactly the case gets transferred to FO?

Also, I don't think we get a case update notification when the case is transferred to FO, I believe it's only when it's transferred to another SC. Can anyone confirm this?

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There are quite a few applications which are never transferred to FO. Lookup the link below for most common USCIS case status.

https://www.fickeymartinezlaw.com/im...l-explanation/