http://dashboard.uscis.gov/Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It is now updated for Nov.
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http://dashboard.uscis.gov/Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It is now updated for Nov.
Did anyone notice the unusual spike in I-140 applications at TSC? Trend Chart shows this spike starting May 2010. Perhaps porting related? The same spike was not there in I-485 applications, so I was thinking that it may related to porting cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks KD. Will take a look ...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
It looks like they are redirecting all 140s to TSC. As per the increase in backlog, it was expected after the acceleration in PERM processing. Remember these include all categories all countries ... since one can file 140 right after labor. So not all of them will flow through 485 immediately.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
But even if you assume 50% are ROW & 50% of that are ROW EB2 then that could be nearly sufficient to choke EB2I. Again .... sorry for the grim prognosis..but its better to be clear about whats in store. In fact these are the thigns that run contrary to trackitt approval trend which is showing significant reduction in EB1 and EB2ROW.
Q,
in 2009, H1 quota lasted till nov, this year it's still open. just an observation on how the new workforce is getting into the system, for backlog reduction it doesn't matter if Ind+China people applying for new labors but ROW matters.
I'm trying to understand the reason behind ur grim outlook
One of the reasons why the trackitt data is reduced may be because the turn around time is so small. If my labor is getting approved in 20 days and my attorney tells me I will get a green card in 4 months after filing for I-140, then why would I want to even bother with finding out about whats happening with others? Just trying to understand the decrease here. Help me if you think there might be reasons other than decrease in the number of filings.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
So, the earlier worst-case scenario of Oct-Nov 06 holds good OR does it appear like it is going to be more worse?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
bieber
Good question. I think the grim outlook doesn't come from current year demand but from opening the floodgates of PERM approvals.
ROW also saw that surge in PERMs last year which killed EB2IC hopes. So in other words ...while 2010-11 ROW labor applications may be low, its the pentup demand from prior years in ROW which is now being realized after they are getting through labor stage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Exactly. That's how I look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
As of now I think that scenario doesn't need to get worse.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Friends refer to the following turn around times from TSCQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I-140 - July 7, 2010
I-485 - June 26, 2010
Based on that I140 and I485 are still taking a while so there is a 6 month time lag for the new demand to hit the 485 queue. Additionally I140 approvals are still hard. Faster approvals are coming for porting cases where the previous 485 is already preadjudicated. Both EB2 ROW and EB1 were also current last year so the inclination / disinclination to create / update profiles should not change drastically. Lets hope for the best.
Teddy
Makes sense. However thats the only way as of now how we can explain the disconnect between trackitt trend vs PERM & 140 data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q Thanks, I agree. I believe that the prediction of the most pessimistic scenario as Oct - Nov 2006 is very tough, it would be almost terrible for everybody not only those who have a close miss but for all others further ahead in the queue. Is this the point with 22K SOFAD as Spec had calculated, I must admit that nothing is impossible and it is extremely prudent to know about the worse case scenario as well. If this scenario happens then it would be a really sad day for all the hopes that we have for Jul – Sep 2011.
I think kd's idea is interesting. As you say, let's hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
To be honest, I've always thought of the Processing Dates as a "you can't enquire about your application until it is at least this old" message rather than being rooted in any reality. I suppose it might represent an average of some kind.
The fact that it has increased to over 4 months does indicate some backlogs.
From memory, EB2-ROW cases on Trackitt generally get approved in 3-4 months, although sometimes longer.
I agree that not much has changed since last year in terms of the I-485s.
However, PP only became available in mid 2009 and the overall process used to take a lot longer for many, when the I-140 generally took much longer to approve. I don't think Porting into EB2-ROW is a great issue at this time.
Yes. For sure it will be terrible for lot of EB2IC folks. The whole push behind clearing PERM and 140 to pave way for ROW itself is so unfair and suspicious. As I said ... people need to really think about their careers and life plans rather than hang their hat on when exactly the GC will arrive.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Someday it will arrrive for sure. But just hang in their and do something you really love. Dont let your dreams become hostage to GC. I personally have done that and regret that I kept waiting on GC to pursue some of the things that I really wanted to do long time back.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If it's any consolation, my latest forecast is somewhat higher than 22k, but sadly not enough to clear 2006.
I certainly hope it does not reflect reality and as we both realize, there is sufficient uncertainty for quite a wide error margin. Obviously for my forecast that involves relatively less chance of lower SOFAD and more chance of higher SOFAD.
Even if we're starting to suspect that EB2 won't provide as many visas as we had hoped, EB1 still has the potential to supply far more than I am forecasting. If you are correct, then it would be enough to move nicely into 2007. So, even though I am the forum's resident pessimist, I don't think all is totally lost.
I do wish we could get some corroborative evidence about the state of EB1.
Q Thanks for your nice words they are indeed very true. If we remain standing we will win. I think the big hurdles ahead of most of us will to stay in Job and have our extensions processed, h1 extensions are becoming hard to get and people are having hard times at consulates. Even H4 cases are being thrown for Admin processing just to give the gravity of the situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Spec, your predictions are very well calculated and nicely articulated. I think you are doing a great job. You definitely are not the "resident pessimist" but a "realist". Your calculations look great and consistent in their own right. Maybe the truth lies somewhere between as you say between mine and your predictions. Let’s keep checking various sources and hope for the very best.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=1&charttype=1Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Referring to the dashboard for I140 there does seem to be a really huge rise in the numbers
from feb to Nov. If we assume that 1/4th of them are EB2 ROW by assuming 50% as ROW and the ROW EB2-EB3 as 50-50
the the number of ROW I140's is 42/4~ 10.5K. Multiplying with the dependant factor this comes to ~ 23K.
Now lets assume that the approvals from Oct to Nov 2010 kind off cancel out the denials that
we would expect in the Nov 2010 figure. The total extrapolated consumption for EB2 ROW at 23K
is capable of giving 40-5.6-23 ~ 10K SOFAD. This might probably be the same as last year, me and spec use this value as the ROW SOFAD last year.
Teddy
Why are you only using Feb-Nov. Shouldn't we extrapolate full year.
Secondly are you using 140 approvals or pending numbers? I assume approvals - thats what we need to use. Now spike is something that is risk on top of the significant approvals. Right? If USCIS starts working on the spike/backlog of these 140 then they can easily find enough cases to fully utilize ROWEB2. Again sorry for my cynicism .... but after last year's PERM surge I think anything is possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I think this is something I tried to talk about before as a confirmation of the PERM trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The way I look at it, if I wanted to do a calculation, I might:
Current rate in FY2011 of Receipts would be nearly 92k I-140 Receipts for the whole of FY2011. Or you can extrapolate back a bit to determine the average to use.
Then you need to factor in a denial rate.
That gives you all approvals from the Receipts
Then say deduct 19k for EB1 I-140 (19k = 40k I-485 so perhaps a bit lower)
That gives you the number of EB2 & EB3 approvals.
Then apply split between EB2 & EB3 (50:50, 40:60 whatever you think).
Multiply EB2 I-140 by 2.1 to arrive at I-485.
Then determine how many I-485 might not be approved in FY2011 (1/3 perhaps)
What's left is I-485 potential approvals (but for retrogression) in FY2011 from FY2011 for EB2.
Around 40% of that is ROW.
You could simplify it by excluding the not approved part and simply say that it is the total for FY2011. Then you probably need to allow for approvals based on PERMs from FY2009 coming out of audit after 2 years.
Or something like that anyway.
It gives rather a high figure.
The same sort of calculation based on completions seems to work better (read - gives more acceptable figures!) and you don't have to factor in a denial rate, assuming completion = approval (may not be true).
Hope that makes sense. Probably not.
You guys are simply amazing and your work is extremely commendable .In this black box world of predicting GC dates where USCIS is of no help at all , reading this forum is a breath of fresh air.
Anywaz having read through the thread and noticed the high rate of PERM approvals pointed out by many in 2010 and also steady porting (4k/6k) numbers being reported seems like this will hit the I-485 queue sometime late 2011 and I simply cannot bring myself to be optimistic for the guys with PD's post May 2007. If the current rate of PERM approvals continues (which it might since EB3 to EB2 porting will pick up further steam and USCIS is granting approvals like crazy....) ..at some point of time would the numbers not retrogress again leaving post May 2007 stranded for couple of years.
Solidly depressed thinking about that scenario ( my PD is Nov 2007) . Also just on the legislation front due to the house being owned by the republicans and senate by the democrats see no way for Comprehensive immigration reform to pass this year and next year 2012 is an election year and no politician will take a chance on this bill. Also the recent bill introduced by Darell Issa ( Advanced degree visa bill -Jan 16 2011) also seems like will not do much.
I hope am wrong on the retrogression part (am not even expecting post May 2007 PD's to get current in 2012 at this rate ...)
Q apologies for the lack of details, let me provide some more details on how I arrived at 42K (Eb2 + Eb3) I did not use Feb to Nov however I just wanted to indicate the trend. A quick maybe dirty way of getting the figure is the processing times for I140 & 485 are 6 months each. Traditionally Jul - Sep is really spillover season so it will be mostly EB2 I/C. So realistically most of the ROW demand must be determined latest by Jun 2011 which is essentially just 6 months away. If we add all applications in the NOV column in various statesQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
28176 1510 5386 7839 Nov10 it gives 42K.
A more sophisticated way is given below.
(5497 (Oct App) + 5386 (Nov App)) * 80/100 (Approvals - Denial) * 6(Extrapolate for the Yr) * (80/100) - EB1 Exclusion ~ 42K. – Intentionally using Oct and Nov so that we feel the force of the perm acceleration.
Then for a simplistic calculation I assumed that 1/4th of this is . This roughly gives 10K SOFAD from EB2 ROW. By using this Nov approach Iam assuming that even though the throughput of applications may increase but they will not approve that drastic a number every month it will stay in 6k odd range while the wait time will keep increasing. ROW folks are less likely to use premium processing. The Nov only approach has no actor for Eb1 so it becomes more conservative
I accept that all the perm calculations look great and they give us a bleak and grim picture but the I140 is a step closer. To make any kind of direct inference from the dashboard like averaging may not help as we specifically know that there is a peak in the later months. Hence I would refrain from using a monthly approval average.
Teddy
A couple of suggestions:
1) Are you taking 20% reduction (for denials) twice? Check your post.
2) Are you applying 2.2 factor on 140 (because 140 is only meant for primary applicant).
So if I make these two modifications then here is how 140 translate to 485 demand/approval.
11K for oct nov -> 66K for full year -> 145K 485 -> 105 ex EB1 485s -> 25K ROW EB2 (50% of 50%) -> 10-12K SOFAD.
This assumes that there are no denials or withdrawals. and I always prefer that way so that our estimates are conservative!!
Thanks for this approach. Guys .... come and poke holes in this now so we can improve !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nicely laid out and I agree with the calculation except that if your ending figure were 25k and there are 40k visas available in EB2, that is 15k SOFAD for IC isn't it? Perhaps you are becoming conservative in your old age. LOL.
I calculated it out at just over 26k, so that gives nearly 14k SOFAD, which is about 8.5k Spill Across.
As a personal choice I thought about 2 slight amendments, but they cancel each other out, so we can probably stick with the simpler 50% of 50% anyway.
a) ROW including M & P was 53% in the FY2010 PERM figures.
b) I have previously calculated the ratio for EB2 as 2.1 apps per I-140 from the published data.
The progression then becomes:
11K for oct nov -> 66K for full year -> 139K 485 -> 99 ex EB1 485s -> 52K ROW (53%) -> 26k EB2 ROW (50%) -> 14k SOFAD -> 8.5k Spill Across.
Spec
Beside the fact that I am old ;) I also left some room for MP !!
That may explain it.... Thanks for your additions. Agree.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think the idea of extrapolating first 2-3 months of I-140 receipts to the whole year has some problems. The sudden increase in number of receipts may be because of the accelerated PERM process in 2010. But now that the PERM process has run out of its steam and its almost current now, number of I-140 receipts will also decrease from Jan onwards. Any thoughts?
Following is the calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
(5497 (Oct App) + 5386 (Nov App)) * 80/100 (Approvals - Denial) * 6(Extrapolate for the Yr) * (80/100) - EB1 Exclusion ~ 42K.
1) Are you taking 20% reduction (for denials) twice? Check your post.
The factor of 80/100 has been used twice one to factor 20% as denials and once to exclude EB1.
2) Are you applying 2.2 factor on 140 (because 140 is only meant for primary applicant).
yes this is also being done, actually this part was in the previous post.
Starting with 42K, 1/4th of this is EB2 ROW this leaves us with 10.5K.The total extrapolated consumption for EB2 ROW at 23K is capable of giving 40-5.6-23 ~ 10K SOFAD.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Some thoughts to ponder on.
As I understand your formula, a reduction of 20% at that point only reduces the I-140 count by c. 11.8k (58.9k * 20%). Using 2.2 as the multiplication factor for I-485 gives 26k EB1 I-485s, so you appear to be giving 14k Fall Down from EB1 within the formula. Since EB1 approvals represents a fixed number, I don't think you can use a % for it.
I see that you are applying a factor of 20% denials across the board. Perhaps we should factor in a denial rate. I am not sure that 20% is correct and certainly not for ROW.
That is 1 in 5 applications. The denial rate is probably quite different for EB2 versus EB3 and for ROW versus India. Large numbers of Countries within ROW don't have the same problems with 3 year degree issues for example and EB3 shouldn't have much problem at all.
If a denial rate is factored in, it think it might be better applied at a point where I-140 numbers for EB2-ROW have been calculated. It would then be a specific rate for EB2-ROW. Even 5% represents 1 in 20 cases which is still an awfully large number.
PS I can see a potential flaw with the exact approach I outlined above (which I think can be rectified) - let's see if you can!
EB2 ROW is giving 8-10K
EB1 is giving 12-14K
EB5 gives 6-7.5K
I+C quota is 6K
so the range is 32-37.5K, inventory is 34.5K, so where is the grim outlook? pls tell me dates move in to 2008 in jul-sep2012, i will be nomal :)
Your first two assumptions is what is being discussed. The other two seem fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Spec the calculation that I gave is pretty much an approximation. I have assumed that EB1 would account for 20% of the I140's that’s an assumption. Now the denial factor is applied to the remaining number which is supposed to Eb2 and Eb3. The main reason for i140 denials is the "Ability to Pay" this is the reason why RFE's or denials are being issued on I140's, yes its more likely if its EB2. I agree that applying a 20% denial on top of the total EB2 and Eb3 is also an oversimplification but then we have to guess the individual rates. I do agree that applying the rates at an individual level will for sure increase the numbers. Iam applying the 485 factor later converting the 10.5K I140's to 23K I485's. However one thing I can certainly see that the perm acceleration has still not hit the dashboard. I will try to work and refine the calculations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy, Q,
One of the things I like about Q's calculation is the sheer simplicity of it. I think that is a virtue.
Denials aside, there is also another factor.
There is a major disconnect between the number of I-140 Receipts and the number of I-140 Completions.
Cases not Completed represent over 25% of the Receipts each month, whether you look at FY2011 only or the last six months.
This has allowed the Pending numbers to climb from as low as 11k in Feb 2010 to 28k now. If it continues at the current rate it will exceed 40k by the end of the FY.
These Pending cases have the potential to add significantly to the overall approvals if they are dealt with, or even if the numbers are stabilized and Receipts remain steady.
So rather than trying to deal with more assumptions one way for Denials and the other way for Pending cases, perhaps it is easier to assume they will cancel each other out.
This leaves us with a very simple calculation that probably represents the mid point of what can happen and minimizes the number of assumptions that have to be made.
What do you think?
Its the large number of pending I-140s and the high PERM approval rate in the last 4 months of FY 2010 that makes me extremely pessimistic about fall across in EB2 come June 2011.
Teddy
What;s the soure of 20% denial assumption? I thought you are looking at trackitt data.
Spec - I wouldn't imagine teddy looking the diff between receipts and approvals and calling it denials. Teddy correct me if I am wrong.
Overall i do think that a) 140 is a good pointer b) we need to monitor it in cumulative manner (since the pending 140s could accelerate).
In terms of EB2IC prospects in 2011 ... I reiterate - lets not be overly optimistic or pessimistic - because the reality is going to be somewher in the middle.
EB3 is a different story altogether. I have repeated it many times that there is no light at the end of that tunnel if you are EB3I w PD later than 2005. Unless some miralce happens/some law changes/some relief comes in, you are going to spend all your youth chasing green card.
Here is an interesting story somebody told me - if it is of any help.
During Vietnam war, a vietnamese girl was walking by a stream where she saw an American soldier sitting dejected. Curious, she asked what happened. He said, "My officer has asked me to build a bridge on this stream in 24 hours so that our platoon can cross this stream tomorrow. There is no way I can do it on my own in 24 hours. I can't find a solution. Its impossible to find a solution to this problem." Upon which the girl said, "If there is no solution, then there is no problem. Don't worry about it." And she moved on.
I think its important to realize what we can do about certain things and what we can not. Some problems have no solution and there is no point burning our energy on them. Whether EB3 or predicting whether USCIS will clear enough 140 to fully utilize ROW-EB2!! Seriously ... take it easy. We will know over time.
Anyway ... my 2 cents ... like always!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nor me and I wasn't implying that. A denial is also a completion - probably. I assume USCIS use the term completion, rather than approval for a reason.
You can't do a valid calculation on each month's figures because of the processing time, but the most obvious reason for a non completion, to me at least, is that the application is being audited.
That should be set off by audited cases from 2 years ago being completed, so the Completion figures look a little low compared to Receipts
I could be sheer inefficiency or perhaps USCIS are taking more time examining even normal applications before making a decision and simply don't have the capacity to adjudicate more in a month.
Either way, that increased backlog will eventually hurt SOFAD - if not this year, then in a future one. It can't be allowed to build indefinitely, although there must be at least a baseline of the audit, appeal and cases pending within the normal processing times.
Since the backlog was reduced to 11k and audit processing times didn't improve, one could speculate that is the normal baseline, or close to it.
On a different, but related subject, there is still the question of PERM backlogs.
OFLC said last year's efforts represented a reduction of 50% of the backlog and that they would continue their efforts to reduce it. What is the rest composed of and what is the time scale to eliminate that?
Forgive me if my post sends any wrong signals. I got the link from Trackitt.
http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2_India_How_Long.htm
Thanks to everyone who is pitching their logical ideas to help give a realistic picture to people like me who have very less acumen on the matters of immigration
Spec ... my comments in line...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Kera. Welcome. I think if EB2I solely becomes dependent on its own 7% allocation then EB2I becomes just like EB3. Fortunately that's not the case and so the article you posted is far from truth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kera.sam
The Visa Statistics for FY2010 have just been posted.
Spillover of 20,434 comprised of the following:
EB1 - 2,062
EB2-M - 2,199
EB2-P - 854
EB2-ROW - 6,507
EB2 Total - 9,560
EB5 - 8,812
Total Approvals
EB1 - 41,026
EB2 - 53,872
EB3 - 42,431 (of which 4,762 were Other Workers)
EB4 - 11,048
EB5 - 1,885
Total - 150,262
EB1 Approvals
China - 6,741 - 16.4%
India - 6,741 - 16.4%
Mexico - 1,835 - 4.5%
Philippines - 407 - 1%
ROW - 25,302 - 61.7%
EB2 Approvals
China - 6,505 - 12.1%
India - 19,961 - 37.1%
Mexico - 817 - 1.5%
Philippines - 2,162 - 4.0%
ROW - 24,427 - 45.3%
IC SOFAD - 26,466
IC Spillover - 20,434
Spillover received by China - 3,489 - 17.1%
Spillover received by India - 16,945 - 82.9%
EB3 Approvals
China - 3,676 - 8.7%
India - 3,036- 7.2%
Mexico - 7,740 - 18.2%
Philippines - 3,651 - 8.6%
ROW - 24,328 - 57.3%
Mexico & Philippines number above 7% - 5,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html
Thanks KD & SPEC.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Some quick comments. EB5 is a wonderful number. EB1 didn;t contribute almost nothing (simply passed on EB5 SOFAD to EB2). EB2-ROW it seems actually contributed almost all remaining SOFAD.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is EB2 analysis -
EB2 I - ~ 20K
EB2 C - ~6K
---------------
Total SOFAD = 26K (which implies 3.5K annual EB3->2 conversions!! PROPS to ourselves ..)
Contribution by EB5 9K
Contribution by EB2-ROW 11K (Props to Teddy!! Good job!)
Total Consumption by ROW (including MP) - 16K
Since 6K was backlong from 2009, it means ROW had a 10K of new demand taken care in 2010 which is way lower than what we thought.
Stay tuned. We need to digest this and then use this to predict 2010-11. But in brief, if ROW follows same pattern in 2011 then EB2I can go places. However, if the PERM surge hits 140 and eventually 485 for ROW then EB2I will be affected. Which direction it will go .... not sure now. Lets discuss..