November bulletin will come out this week (by Friday), that will give us more data into how things are going to shake up.Quote:
Originally Posted by goracer
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November bulletin will come out this week (by Friday), that will give us more data into how things are going to shake up.Quote:
Originally Posted by goracer
It would be worthwhile to compare the EB3 FAD analysis alongside this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by goracer
With no spillover and USCIS not wasting any numbers and EB2- to EB3 downgrade to 50000, EB2-I is expected to move to Q1 of 2012 according to this analysis.
What date would be current for EB3-I with the same assumptions ? How does that get calculated?
Contact good attorney It looks Murthy is slow right now In creating forms for you. I believe they are awaiting November visa Bulletin and file all their AOS cases end of the monthQuote:
Originally Posted by rohanvus
Sooner the better
I would downgrade and get the EAD.With these new H1 wage rule renewal might be difficult.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
EB1 getting most of the FB SO numbers does not seem correct way of analysis to me. I will wait for the gurus to comment on this analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by goracer
Yes, downgrading if priority date is beyond May 2011 makes perfect sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_dude
Just curious how the FAD movement compares between EB2-I and EB3-I considering one specific set of assumptions for both calculations. That will drive downgrade decisions for people who are eligible to apply I-485 in EB2-I
For me personally I have an option to apply I-140 in either EB2-I and EB3-I ( fresh petition)and I have chosen EB3-I based on a hunch that EB3-I FAD will stay ahead of EB2-I for the next couple years atleast.
Every analysis I've seen so far doesn't seem to account for one constant - "Processing capacity." Even with available visas, you need processing capacity to be stable, and with COVID and Administration overheads, this can be a significant factor in utilization.Quote:
Originally Posted by sudiva
If you dont submit a medical, USCIS normally sends a pink letter explaining that the medicals can be submitted during interview, or when you get an RFE. One point i noted from this note is that, it explicitly said that you should not mail the medicals unless there is an RFE, and that doing so may delay the case. i dont know what kind of delay they were talking about, but they were pretty clear its not recommended.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
So in summary: You can. But from a note i got, sending it without RFE is discouraged by USCIS.
So in case you want to play it safe, you could include the medicals with the form. If the cases are ready to be approved within a year, there is a chance it will prevent an RFE (which can introduce a slight delay). Of late there were a few cases that were approved without interview on trackitt. So in case you are so lucky, submitting medicals now could avoid a delay.
Good Luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
Can the knowledgeable folk comment on this - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/
If anyone has some suggestion please helpQuote:
Originally Posted by sanjeevchhibber
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
Sorry for bumping this thread. Can experts please guide me with my post below? I'd appreciate any thoughts.
I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.Quote:
Originally Posted by seepz123
so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.
Thank you smuggy for sharing your experience. This is much appreciatedQuote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Thank you,lawyers are not yet ready to apply for me and I don't foresee my application being sent out this week, I will keep an eye out for the Nov 2020 bulletin and if that gives an indication of FAD progressing rapidly enough I can reevaluate.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.
https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/
I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.
Below are the numbers I get.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254
EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6
Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.
Let the bashing begin!!
I am most interested in knowing what will happen by January for EB2I. That will set the tone for the rest of the year. Hoping that they will move FADs by 2-3 months until at least the January bulletin. Saying this especially for folks in 2009 until April 2010 who already filed AOS years back. Will be awesome if the queue is cleared of all the past AOS filers.
Have u calculated dependents?Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.
@longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.
Which dependent calculator u usedQuote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Uscis dependent calculator is
Eb2- 2.0 and eb3-2.1
Coz my number is around 44000 till December 2010 for both eb2 and eb3
If you add up my EB2 & EB3 for 2009 and 2010 you get ~44000.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
I would say your calculations are on par and my basic calculations indicate FAD will reach DF if USCIS utilizes all the visa's. Basis for that is below.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Hello, need help on my case.
I filed my 485 recently for me and my wife on my own. Instead of sending one package with 2 applications, i sent 2 packages separately for 2 applications. Does it cause uscis reject my wife 485 application? Any help on this is greatly appreciated.
USCIS needs to process the principal applicant before processing the derivative applicants if they are mailed separately. If your wife is a derivative applicant, then her application will be rejected if its processed before the principal applicants i-485. You may be able to resend the same application (if nothing has changed), once you get a receipt for your i-485. I would not be worried too much, as long as she has another way to maintain lawful status (such as H4, her own H1b, L1/L2, or F1/F2 etc). Good luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sudhedup1
Thank you. Hope they can match to primary.
Hello All,
Need your thoughts on my current dilemma. My EB2-I priority date is current for final action as of Oct 1st. I responded to an RFE for medicals & Sup J in November, 2018. My sup J was approved in Feb 2020, my medicals expire mid-November, 2020. I changed my job in August, 2019 and haven't ported my application to current employer. I am currently engaging with an external Fragomen attorney who had once helped me through one of my previous employers just to cover my basis if I get an RFE before approval comes through, as my current employer is suggesting to go with my own attorney as company attorney didn't initiate my AOS application and they will support an provide all paperwork. This attorney is advising me to file for Sup J rather than waiting for an RFE.
I was thinking what if my AOS application is approved while my Sup J application is in mail to USCIS. Positive could be it might get officers attention and quick action on my pending I-485. Any thoughts. As usual, your suggestions are highly appreciated.
thanks,
H
Read somewhere that new PERM cannot be started/processed if offices are closed, as notices need to be placed, and employees need to be able to see the notices.
Is this true ?
From my personal experience, the approval time for I485J was 2 to 3 months (before COVID). Normally all attorneys will wait for Supp J RFE, however your PD is current and your medical is about to expire. If I am in your situation, I might wait till the medical is expired (another month or so) and then you can go with new SuppJ. There is a *chance* that your application might be approved as it is. USCIS is not going to approve an application with expired medicals. You might ask your employer attorney what are the chances of application getting approved without a RFE. Explain what you are thinking and make a quick phone call. You can decide based on attorney opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by harpreetbhatti
Don't worry a lot about RFE. Consider it as a progress in your case. Once an REF response is received, the GC approval comes quickly. You have waited so long. So another month or two (even though it is inconvenient) is no problemo. Nothing can go wrong in your case as you have attorneys supporting you. Cool down and Relax. Good Luck.
There was a clarification from DOL that notices can be placed on the door. See below.Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorker123
Quote:
Brandt Carter from the DOL Atlanta National Processing Center had clarified that – Posting Notice for PERM – If a business is all remote because of COVID, it’s okay to post notice on exterior door. This was posted in “Greg Siskind’s” twitter feed on 23JUL2020.
Please see:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1286363602178498561
Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
The H1B wage shift is going to be temporary until the lawsuits are filed. This was just election time posturing for a sound bite saying see how we are protecting American jobs. When the lawsuit is filed and the changes are rolled back, there will be nary a peep about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by letmesee
+1. Very less likely it survives an imminent legal challenge, followed by a change of administration (potentially!). Odds are stacked against it from even going into effect to begin with even for a short window (given the target implementation date is 60 days).Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Wage determination went into effect on October 8th. The 60 day window is for the H1-B speciality occupation rule which is a seperate rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Anyone who files LCA/PERM or has a pending LCA/PERM on or after 8th october 2020 will need to be paid according to the new wage determination. It's a raise for everyone on H1-B :)
Yes. I meant the specialty occupation rue when I said 60 days and thanks for the clarification.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
ha! Needless to say that lots of ppl. will be bumped down in these new wage levels. For example, old L4 wage will now probably likely could be new L3 when you are up for next extension. In that case, its probably going to be okay still as long as the role itself is experienced and requires special/specific skills and education specific to it. However, if the increase in levels is too dramatic that an old L3 will now only qualify as a new L1, it might get tricky. One an still make the case that the new L1 is still around the median as such. So I think only time will tell how USCIS adjudicates using these new elevated levels.
There are also professions where wages are negotiated by union contracts. For example, tenured school teachers are paid that way. It will be interesting to see how those situations are approached. I personally have such friends who haven't had any RFE or rejection issues in the past (including the current DT admin.) as they were making the highest wages negotiated by their unions and everyone in the peer group in their school district made the same wage. What if those guys qualify only under the new L2 wage level for example.
My assumptions for 20% in 2009 and 2010 are obvious. The dates are current in EB2 till May 15th, so I figured I will up the number by 10% and another 10% for subsequent years. The reason I use 40% for 2012 and onwards, is because not everyone who can downgrade will downgrade.Quote:
Originally Posted by letmesee
i) They may not have employer support,
ii) The dates may not be current by the time their company attorney's get to it.
iii) I have known people who backed out because of the ability to pay clause where they were not offered the prevailing wages.
iv) May be unable to file because of employer change and PERM pending.
v) Most important of all, if USCIS extrapolates the trend to be around 40-50% people downgrading this month they will likely NOT allow the filing dates to remain current past this month. The purpose of FD is to estimate and allow cases to be filed which may be current by end of the FY 21. To provide AOS to backlogged folks is not it's goal.
I expect downgrades from 2012 onwards will reach 80% in couple of months. People could not file this month will be motivated by the coming visa bulletins.
What are you all thinking regarding release date of Nov Bulletin, this Fri or next?
I am guessing next weekQuote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
I am also thinking Filing dates will not be allowed by USCIS for the whole year. They will be open only for the next 2-3 months to get the applications in. After January they will rather move FADs based on the demand and processing bandwidthQuote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
I am going by i140 approved
Which in year-2010-
Eb2- 15,313x2
Using dependent calculator- 30,626
Eb3-6682x2.1
Using dependent calculator-14,032.2
That is giving me 44,658.2
Thats just for 2010
Correct me if I am wrong