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Spec,
Based on what you said on the first page:
How do you think there will be even 6000 visas for EB2 I? If EB1 is going to be close to 40000 or even reach 40000 and EB 2 WW is going to consume their entire qouta then its becoming clear that there will be no spillover to EB2 I. What are your thoughts in that scenario? If zero spillover then I think there will be no movement.
If , for instance, EB1 used 37k, then that would be about 6k available. Use your imagination - there are certainly enough uncertainties.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
In a scenario where there was zero spillover, porting cases with fairly early PDs would certainly use all the available visas. It's impossible to say what the Cut Off Date would be if that were to happen, due to the lack of data on porting numbers by PD.
Visa Bullitein Page is update with status of
Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013 (coming soon)............................................. ........
I wonder what % of EB2-I approvals are EB2-NIW. That should be a proxy for relative quality of EB2-I candidates and EB2-ROW. My money says that the % of EB2-I-NIW is a lot lower than the % of EB2-ROW-NIW.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
abcx13,Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
As we might expect, given the Cut Off Dates, none of the EB2-I chargeable approvals this year are NIW.
Last year, of 1,470 Trackitt approvals for EB2, only 21 NIW were chargeable to India (1.4%). Even I was surprised by how low the figure was when I just looked it up.
The difference is amazing. Sportsfan is probably right that a lot of people would go for EB1A if possible, but then why won't the ROWs too? And the companies/universities have to be willing to file in EB1A/B and I'm not sure they would be. Large companies usually go the conservative route, and I think it would be EB2-NIW.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I've said this before, but without CIR I think EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I. There is no end in sight to the bottomless demand from India.
abcx13,Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I was surprised it was quite so low, even though I expected it to be much lower than EB2-WW.
I agree with the reasons sportsfan has mentioned, but NIW still has some advantages to medical professionals and because it can be self sponsored.
EB1B won't be an option for many, since it is only for teaching and research and can not be self sponsored like NIW and EB1A.
I suspect that the job profile plays a significant part in the numbers. Indians are highly concentrated in IT professions, which probably do not lend themselves to NIW applications.
I also wonder if part of the difference is due to different age profiles between India and WW applicants.
I've never seen that broken down by Country, but I suspect India has a higher proportion of younger immigrants, since many either seek to be educated in the US and remain, or come here immediately after their education in India.
That may not be true for large parts of WW, where many only arrive here at a later age, having already established a career. That would put them in a better position to claim NIW (or EB1A/B). To a certain extent, the relative numbers of EB1, EB2, EB3 approvals bears this out.
I'm sure the answer is multi-factored.
Even if not self sponsored, NIW has the advantageous that it saves any employer the not inconsiderable PERM costs, as well as potentially shortening the overall process considerably.
"Analysis" of Information about FY2012 Visa Usage and a "Guess" about Category Numbers
Firstly, sorry for such a long post, but I did want to lay out my logic for scrutiny and so people could understand why I have reached certain conclusions. Please do not quote it in full if you wish to reply.
Since some of the information it is based on is questionable, it is presented, as Ancient Aliens woulds say, on a :
WHAT IF IT WERE TRUE?
basis. :)
A total of 144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012. By Category, that equates to:
EB1 – 41,456
EB2 – 41,456
EB3 – 41,456
EB4 – 10,291
EB5 – 10,292
7% equates to 2,902 for EB1-EB3 and 720 for EB4-EB5.
So far, only one number is generally available – EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 to spillover.
Everything else has to be conjecture from disparate sources of information.
EB1
We know that it has been reported that EB1 usage was very high at the end of FY2012 and was approaching the limit.
From a meeting with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC and reported by Murthy:
In fact, numbers dropped "to" 25k, not "by more than" 25k. I mention this because the generally rather loose language used in the Murthy article is a concern.Quote:
In FY11, demand for EB1 numbers dropped by more than 25,000. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) expected a similar pattern in FY12, and advised the DOS accordingly. This led the DOS to expect 12,000 to 15,000 excess EB1 numbers, which the DOS factored in when they advanced the EB2 India and China cutoff dates rapidly in FY12. The excess numbers did not materialize, due to an upswing in EB1 demand in FY12.
And comments Charles Openheim made to Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee in a conversation on August 30, 2012:
Quote:
Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high.
…..
The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000).
…..
The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.
EB2 China and India
In a conversation with Alan Lee on February 23, 2012:
That figure can be considered a high number, since it was before the up swell in demand for both EB1 and EB5.Quote:
Charles Oppenheim confirmed that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year; and that he had approximately 25,000 left to distribute.
The only article that mentions EB2-IC numbers for FY2012, is a Murthy article dated November 2, 2012.
This is the single most important number!
Unfortunately, it is also the most unreliable!
If it is incorrect, all calculations are also incorrect. Please bear this in mind.
It seems unreliable for a number of reasons:
Despite the fact that others were in attendance at this meeting, I have been unable to find a single other reference to the EB2-IC number for FY2012. This seems a little strange, given the anticipation for this information.Quote:
The meeting was with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC. An outline follows, which shares Mr. Oppenheim's expectations and analysis for all employment-based (EB) categories for FY13.
The article actually says:
It is an impossibility for China to have received the same number as India. They could not "each" have received 19k i.e. 38k total SOFAD. Additionally, there were just not enough spare visas available for this to be the case.Quote:
In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China.
(my highlighting)
It is far more likely that the “each” is superfluous and it means that EB2-IC received 19k between them.
Another construction would be that India received 19k. In that case, China would have received about 5.5k visas for a total SOFAD of 24.5k.
Further discussion in the article about numbers for FY2013 suggests that the FY2012 number is referring to 19k SOFAD for EB2-IC.
Both possibilities will be discussed.
EB4
In all likelihood, the withdrawal of Concurrent filing for Religious Workers part way through FY2011, led to a situation where there were insufficient cases ready to be adjudicated in FY2011. As a result EB2-IC benefited from several thousand extra spillover visas. By FY2012, that would have worked through the system and EB4 could be expected to return to the full usage seen in FY2009 and FY2010.
It is possible EB4 contributed some spillover, but they also had a backlog of I-485 cases that normally would have been submitted in FY2011 and were delayed to FY2012 to deal with. FY2011 had less than 12 months cases, resulting in FY2012 having more than 12 months cases to be adjudicated.
EB5
Fairly reliable information says that EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 visas to spillover.
Pulling the Numbers Together
IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 19k
If EB2-IC SOFAD was 19k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 19.0 – (2.9*2) = 13.2k
If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 13.2 – 2.7 = 10.5k.
If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 2.5 – 4.5k. Using the lower figure of 2.5k then:
EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 2.5 = 39k ± 1-2k.
Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 2.5 (EB1/EB4) = 5.2k
EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 5.2 = 46.7k
EB2-WW usage becomes 46.7 – 19.0 = 27.7k
Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.
IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 24.5k
If EB2-IC SOFAD was 24.5k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 24.5 – (2.9*2) = 18.7k
If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 18.7 – 2.7 = 16.0k.
If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 8 – 10k. Using the lower figure of 8k then:
EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 8.0 = 33.5k ± 1-2k.
Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 8.0 (EB1/EB4) = 10.7k
EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 10.7 = 52.2k
EB2-WW usage becomes 52.2 – 24.5 = 27.7k
Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.
The problem with this interpretation is that:
- The total number of EB2 visas is 52.2k. That is close to the maximum of 55k Charles Oppenheim thought available in February 2012 and which undoubtedly reduced due to increased usage in EB5 and EB1.
- The other problem is that the EB1 total is lower than the later information suggested it would be.
This could be solved if EB4 contributed significant visa numbers. This seems unlikely since it would result in fewer approvals than in FY2011, when withdrawal of Concurrent Filing for Religious Workers probably caused a temporary shortage of cases to adjudicate.
It could also be solved if EB2-WW approvals were significantly lower and therefore contributed the majority of the spillover i.e. 11.5-13.5k spillover. However, this would be inconsistent with the number of Trackitt Approvals seen and there would have been no need to retrogress EB2-WW if that had been the case.
On balance, personally, I have to favour the Murthy Article meaning a total SOFAD of 19k for EB2-IC.
Finally, I cannot stress enough how much this "analysis" relies on the Murthy article. If the information in it is incorrect, then the basis for all the calculations is too.
Please read the above with that in mind.
I really hope we will see a return to the Visa Statistics being published in January. I, for one, do not think I can stand to wait until August again.
I know folks from Germany and South America who have applied for BOTH EB1-A and NIW. The reason? NIW is subjective. The famous NYDOT decision can be applied arbitrarily by USCIS. EB1-A is more clear cut. So often lawyers advise to send both.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Excellent analysis Spec. It goes along with my general estimate of "normal" EB2-WW usage being about 32K, and that about 8K were "borrowed" by EB2-I/C in 2012. Of coursel, the problem is that those "borrowed" numbers need to be payed this year...
Me and my wife have Indian Passport and our daughter is USA born and has valid USA passport along with PIO card. We are travelling to India this week. Do we need any other document for my daughter to travel to India? Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.
No, you don't need to carry any other docs for your daughter. PIO card is sufficient along with yours and her passport. Have a safe and happy journey. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by tendlya
Thanks codesmith!
Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants in the Family-sponsored and
Employment-based preferences Registered at the National Visa Center
as of November 1, 2012
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
Thank you
Tatikonda.
Someone in Trackitt had posted 2012 VB, which caused some confusion. please do not bring it to here..
Thank you
Tatikonda.[/QUOTE]
I see fewer 485 applications being approved on Trackitt for ROW's, is it is a sign of quarterly exhaustion of the Visa numbers or the number in general is very low?
also the perm numbers are also low compared to previous months.
If the applications are low can we expect the EB-2 I movement in near future, say in a month or less?
After a long time, I looked at the "Trackitt Greencard Prediction".. The number of EB2-I applicants ahead of me (PD - 02/2008) changed from roughly 10k to 7k to 8k as per the data taken in Jan 2012, May 2012 and Oct. 2012 respectively. Now the numbers falling between Jan-May 2012 would be the applicants who were approved while the dates were current and the numbers rising after May would be the porting cases.
Since the rise is roughly 1k and assuming that 70% of applicants on Trackitt are from India, it means that
A. Not many folks update their profiles to reflect the porting.
B. Porting is not that high.
Just a thought..
redsox2009,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
I have noticed that too.
January is the first month of Q2 so I don't think it is quarterly exhaustion as such.
Approvals for all Categories, not just EB2-WW, have been very slow so far in January. Maybe the IOs have taken an extended vacation.
Regarding EB2-WW, it does seem likely they will slow for a period, followed by another period of rapid approvals before settling down.
Beginning October, USCIS had a backlog of cases submitted up to June 2012 that they had not been able to approve due to retrogression. The majority of these didn't become Current until November.
At the same time, virtually no EB2-WW could submit a new I-485 application until the dates became Current again in November, so USCIS likely received a large number of new applications from November onwards. They aren't likely to be ready to adjudicate in large numbers until the end of January or February. So if USCIS clear the backlog quickly, EB2-WW could be quiet for a period. It doesn't actually mean there are low numbers that will be approved.
Currently, according to Trackitt, there are as many EB2-WW pending as have been approved. Around a third of cases submitted in June 2012 remain to be adjudicated and 50% of the total pending cases have been submitted since the FY began. Of those, about 70% were submitted in November.
I don't follow Trackitt PERM cases, so I can't comment on those.
I'm not convinced that low EB2-WW approvals now will necessarily lead to any release of extra visas to EB2-I in the next month or so.
Visa Bulletin Feb 2013
No Change for EB2I
EB2C goes to 15JAN2008
The people how are porting are from PD 2005 an up. 4-5k spillover will get EB3I just in early 2003. So I am not sure what you mean by drastically?Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
So is still the Indian comunnity owns revenge to ROW???? I would say maybe ROW need to do something in revenge...but we are much smarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Hi Q! No offense.. but I'll appreciate if you can share your numbers and facts backing up your prediction of Eb2I reaching beyond 2007 this fiscal year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
smilebaba no offense at all. Will update header tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileBaba
Question: Can porter from EB3 refile for I-485 in EB2 if the PD is not current for EB2?
(though he might have pending I-485 in EB3 from 2007 fiasco)
If the he can not, it is clear that CO may be creating block for porters by not raising the PD for EB2-I and 4-5 months window is small enough for porters and current EB2-WW to prevent sneak through and then create a healthy predictable spill over to EB2-I/C in coming month(April-May?)
[QUOTE=Spectator;32337]Caramail,
Personally, I hope CO does start quicker advancement sooner rather than later, at least moving to August 1, 2007 to gather the many people who had PERM Certified too late to file in July 2007.
Thanks Yank.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
A total increase of 900 cases vs. January demand data. 2009 and 2010 should be newly pre-adjudicated cases. 2008 demand data of 16,500 is higher than the 15,897 number from the Oct-2012 inventory and still increasing, same for 2007. Don't know what is going on there.
Monthly increase by PD
2004 ---- 0
2005 ---- 50
2006 ---- 50
2007 ---- 100
2008 ---- 175
2009 ---- 300
2010 ---- 225
Total ---- 900
Increase should be coming from CP cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I've moved the EB3-ROW discussion here.
Yes, the extra number should be the CP cases. Thanks Veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
My hopes are very thin on this. By the time there would be some movement then the rest of porting would consume any visa#, i mean the porting with pd from 2004 to 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Demand is increasing... Guess they be pure porting?
Below is demand difference between Dec and Jan demand data.
Cumulative.......All Other
Demand Prior To..Countries....China....India....Grand Total
1-Jan-05..............0...........0.......50............ .50
1-Jan-06..............0...........0......150............ 150
1-Jan-07..............0...........0......250............ 250
1-Jan-08............-25........-550......650.............75
1-Jan-09..............0........-425.....1175............750
1-Jan-10..............0........-275.....1850...........1575
1-Jan-12.............25........-200.....2400...........2225
I don't believe that will stop the porters forever. Maybe it will delay their I485 filing temporarily but once the dates move for EB2-I, porters can file too...Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
This delay will enable to streamline the normal PDs and then again retrogress in August/September. Any porters who apply in the open window are subject to normal processing times(say 3 months) and hence will be added to demand in next cycle
Does this sound logical?
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Hi guys, need help regarding my H1B extension , my h1b extension was applied in nov 2012 and I had to travel to India in December before it approved. I came back to USA and then I got another I94 but my H1b extension was applied with old I94, now I got RFE for client letter, do I need to submit my i94 which I got at entry to USA again ? While applying RFE can I resubmit my new I94 ? Your response would be appreciated, thanks for help.
Just send what is asked for in the RFE. No need to submit those extra documents .Quote:
Originally Posted by bee369
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us....html?hp&_r=1&
This looks encouraging but how far it will go is unclear
Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?
If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I compared each DD and it seems that in October they approved 400 for EB2 I and then ~ 180 each nov and decQuote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven