EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Friends I believe we should look at this issue both quantitatively and qualitatively. Let us consider the following facts.
Assumptions - No movement in EB2 dates has been seen in 2011. Assume that all numbers are going towards PD Porting and nothing goes towards PWMB to get the maximum value.
1) EB2I's annual cap is 2800 which translates to 700 per quarter. So this translates to 2800 per year.
2) According to Pasrsvnath's analysis ~ 750 was the decline in the non-current portion of EB2 however I remember that the demand data for India has been showing the same value since the last few months so lets assume its PD porting filling in this gap. This would translate to ~ 6000.
If we add 1 and 2 the maximum possible figure that we get is 6K.
Now we should ideally not be looking at figures and multiplying, the PD porting folks are the more active and aware guys and as the date is static now these folks would see their well deserved approvals. Also looking at another aspect most porting cases are being approved with 1-2 months of the interfiling request so nobody is really waiting this might indicate that the monthly allocation is sufficient to cater to these cases. On Trackitt I believe as you are searching we should look at EB2 by recent filing date + old PD’s and also EB3 cases as some folks simply update their EB3 case which is not current. However Iam reasonably sure that PD porting will not exceed 6K.

Bad News on Famil Based Visa Spillover

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...t-response.pdf

In pages 5 and 6, the report states all Family Visas for 2010 will get used by End of 2010.

I don;t think it impacts our prediction but wanted you guys to be aware of it.

Quoting from trackitt post http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...n-2011/page/17

Paste below lines in EXCEL, and change the data from Text to column ("," is used as separator value).
2007* means all the numbers against this year are only 33% of total PERM approval of that year.
** indicates PERM APPROVED multiplied by 2.25 to account for all derivatives:

Year,Total,ROW,Retro,India,EB3-ROW**,EB2-ROW**,EB3-Retro**,EB2-Retro**,EB3-I**,EB2-I**,Waiting2File**
2007*,28087,14002,14085,8109,15752,15752,15846,158 46,9123,9123,65690
2008,49205,22870,26335,16568,25729,25729,29627,296 27,18639,18639,122261
2009,29502,13597,15905,11387,15297,15297,17893,178 93,12810,12810,76703
2010,70237,30644,39593,28930,34475,34475,44542,445 42,32546,32546,188651
Total,177031,81113,95918,64994,91253,91253,107908, 107908,73118,73118,453305

Again these are numbers based on the date of PERM approval and not PERM filing. So the actual demand may shift. For example, 2010 saw large number of PERM approvals but they all were not filed in 2010.

again 2010 means Oct 2009 to Sept 2010 and so on.


Furthermore recollect what happened with family-based quota: USCIS moved the dates too slow for a number of years and many thousand visas were wasted. So Ombudsman reprimands. Then USCIS moves them too fast, there is a deluge of applications and now they retrogress two years. I would be very surprised if something different happened with employment-based applications.

Oh to pity our fate at the hands of USCIS!

Gurus,

My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.

Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Gurus,

My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.

Thanks

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Sorry didn't mention the category. It is EB2-India.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Quoting from trackitt post http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...n-2011/page/17

Paste below lines in EXCEL, and change the data from Text to column ("," is used as separator value).
2007* means all the numbers against this year are only 33% of total PERM approval of that year.
** indicates PERM APPROVED multiplied by 2.25 to account for all derivatives:

Year,Total,ROW,Retro,India,EB3-ROW**,EB2-ROW**,EB3-Retro**,EB2-Retro**,EB3-I**,EB2-I**,Waiting2File**
2007*,28087,14002,14085,8109,15752,15752,15846,158 46,9123,9123,65690
2008,49205,22870,26335,16568,25729,25729,29627,296 27,18639,18639,122261
2009,29502,13597,15905,11387,15297,15297,17893,178 93,12810,12810,76703
2010,70237,30644,39593,28930,34475,34475,44542,445 42,32546,32546,188651
Total,177031,81113,95918,64994,91253,91253,107908, 107908,73118,73118,453305

Again these are numbers based on the date of PERM approval and not PERM filing. So the actual demand may shift. For example, 2010 saw large number of PERM approvals but they all were not filed in 2010.

again 2010 means Oct 2009 to Sept 2010 and so on.


Furthermore recollect what happened with family-based quota: USCIS moved the dates too slow for a number of years and many thousand visas were wasted. So Ombudsman reprimands. Then USCIS moves them too fast, there is a deluge of applications and now they retrogress two years. I would be very surprised if something different happened with employment-based applications.

Oh to pity our fate at the hands of USCIS!

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I believe that this analysis is from the user "MAY2003".While its true that 2010 saw a lot of perm approvals atleast 2/3rds of these folks got their 485's also approved the same year, so we are past this phase kind off. If you look at EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt they are down to 60% (179/295) comparing corresponding periods in 2009 and 2010. However looks like EB2 ROW approvals did accelerate this month when compared to last month.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Gurus,

My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.

Thanks

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Best case is Jul - Sep 2012 and worst case is Jul - Sep 2013, Good Luck. I would give 2012 80% chances.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I believe that this analysis is from the user "MAY2003".While its true that 2010 saw a lot of perm approvals atleast 2/3rds of these folks got their 485's also approved the same year, so we are past this phase kind off. If you look at EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt they are down to 60% (179/295) comparing corresponding periods in 2009 and 2010. However looks like EB2 ROW approvals did accelerate this month when compared to last month.

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I agree w Teddy. 2010 saw PERM approvals from backlog. This year this will be mostly current and hence less of a risk to SOFAD.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Best case is Jul - Sep 2012 and worst case is Jul - Sep 2013, Good Luck. I would give 2012 80% chances.

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Agree again.

As ever, I am going to disagree with the conventional wisdom on this board.

The 2010 PERM figures suggest that at least 10k EB2-ROW I-485 cases will fall through to be approved as I-485s in FY2011.

In fact, let's take PERM out of the equation and look at I-140s.

According to the USCIS Dashboard, backlog reduction meant that Pending I-140 applications reached a low of 11k in Feb 2010.

Since then, because of greatly increased receipts (presumably due to the upsurge in PERM approvals), the Pending applications have steadily risen and stood at 26.5k in October 2010. That level hasn't been seen since May 2009.

The September 2010 figure, would allow EB2-ROW approvals in FY2011 of 9k after allowing that some would be EB1 cases.

New I-140 receipts continue at around double the figure seen a year ago. If continued, they would amount to 96k in FY2011.

Allowing for EB1 cases and taking two thirds of the remainder (to represent the first 8 months) would allow a further 22k EB2-ROW approvals, giving a total of 31k possible approvals for EB2-ROW in FY2011.

I am not saying how many will be approved, merely that EB2-ROW can reach its allocation with the facts known. That will deny any spill across to EB2-IC. At the very best, it will be much reduced from the level seen in FY2010.

The figures are actually quite conservative. The I-140s not considered allow EB1 to reach more than 40k in FY2011. If EB1 approvals were less, then EB2-ROW becomes higher. It also assumes that the backlog is allowed to remain at 26.5k and no reduction effort is undertaken at some point during the FY.

As for FY2010, only 10% of the 516 EB2-ROW I-485 primary approvals on Trackitt were from applications filed before 2009. That suggest that clearing a backlog of I-140 applications that had been pending for many years was not a factor in the number of approvals seen.

The backlog reduction effort had more effect on keeping approvals artificially high in FY2008 and FY2009. The backlog of I-140s was 118k in July 2008 (the earliest date I have data for) and had dropped to 14k at the beginning of FY2010. This backlog reduction offset the low PERM and I-140 numbers for FY2008 and FY2009.

Whilst it is true that a significant % of approvals had fairly old Priority Dates in FY2010, that factor is more than outweighed by the fact that PERM/I-140 approvals are now significantly faster and that the volume has at least doubled. There is no need for approval of significant numbers with old PDs in FY2011 to reach the EB2-ROW allocation. Those submitted solely in 2010-2011 should be sufficient.

As ever, when I talk about ROW, I mean Countries other than C, I, M & P. I know some people refer to ROW as all Countries other than IC.

For EB2-MP, they might contribute 2.5-3k to spill across in FY2011 from their 5.8k allocation if historical trends continue.

In FY2010, if EB5 contributed 8.8k (known from published document), then EB1 and EB2-Non Retrogressed must have contributed 11.7k spillover/across between them. If EB2-ROW had 24.5k approvals, as Trackitt suggests, it contributed 6.5k spill across. If EB2-M&P contributed a further 3k spill across, then that leaves EB1 as contributing just 2.2k. That suggests EB1 had approvals of 40.8k.

The 26.5k SOFAD would have been comprised of:

EB5 ------- 8.8
EB1 ------- 2.2
EB2-ROW --- 6.5
EB2-M&P --- 3.0
IC All. --- 6.0

Total ---- 26.5

Having seen the October USCIS figures, my position has actually hardened.

Like some on Trackitt, I don't see EB2-IC getting beyond September 2006 in FY2011. It could be better, but that depends almost entirely on EB1 IMO. Despite the Trackitt figures, I expect EB1 to be near, at or beyond its FY2011 allocation.

I expect EB5 to probably provide around 8k in FY2011.

Certainly, I feel quite confident in predicting that the Cut Off dates for EB2-IC will not go beyond 2006 in FY2011.

I don't think I will comment again until the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published and the real numbers for EB2-ROW, EB2-M, EB2-P and EB1 are revealed.

I do accept that if PERM approvals (and therefore I-140s/I-485s) reduce significantly in FY2011 then the situation would change for the better. The only direct evidence of that will be the monthly I-140 receipt figures. Unfortunately, USCIS is very slow in providing that data (they have only just published the October figure). That means nothing will become evident for several months. By the time any trend can be established, we will probably have entered Spillover Season anyway. I just don't accept that PERM approvals will reduce from the FY2010 level to the extent others argue. That is due to continued higher applicant numbers and shorter approval times.

One thing is certain - I can't be accused of overestimating the Cut Off Date progress for EB2-IC. ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I agree w Teddy. 2010 saw PERM approvals from backlog. This year this will be mostly current and hence less of a risk to SOFAD.


Agree again.

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Thanks Both...

Guys,

I did some simple calculations based on recent I-140 receipts available on the USCIS dashboard. I assumed that for the ROW applicants, it takes on an average 3 months to get green card after they get I-140 receipt. So, July, 10 receipts will be assigned visas in October, 10 (the start of the new year) and so on and so forth. From the current dashboard, we can get total number of receipts from July, 10 to October, 10 which is 31,059. Next, from the PERM 2010 data, I calculated an average ratio of ROW applicants ( ignoring India & China) to the total number of applicants in a typical year, which is around 0.53 (37,255/70,237). I used this approximate ratio to estimate the number of ROW I-140 receipts from July 10 to October 10, which is, 31,059*0.53 = 16,474. Next, I multiplied this number by 2.2 (Q's ratio) to estimate the number of actual visas the USCIS will have spent from Oct, 10 to Jan, 11 based on my 3 months lag logic. This number is, 16,474*2.2=36,243. The last thing I did is to extrapolate this number for the full year (12 months), which is, 36,243/4*12 = 108,730. So, basically the left over numbers (140,000 - 108,730 = 31,270) will be available for the spill over+ their own assigned yearly quota for India and China at the end of the year? Is it possible or are there any obvious flaws in my approach? Also, I can refine these numbers as the dashboard gets updated from time to time.

Spec .... I wouldn't vehemently support or reject what you say. The reason being I-140 data can't be taken at its face value. For some reason it is always overstated --- just like 485 receipt data. I haven't figured out why. And that's why I only look at the %increase YoY and use that to predict future. In other words lets use YoY %change rather than absolute numbers from 485/140 receipts data.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As ever, I am going to disagree with the conventional wisdom on this board.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vedu

Guys,

I did some simple calculations based on recent I-140 receipts available on the USCIS dashboard. I assumed that for the ROW applicants, it takes on an average 3 months to get green card after they get I-140 receipt. So, July, 10 receipts will be assigned visas in October, 10 (the start of the new year) and so on and so forth. From the current dashboard, we can get total number of receipts from July, 10 to October, 10 which is 31,059. Next, from the PERM 2010 data, I calculated an average ratio of ROW applicants ( ignoring India & China) to the total number of applicants in a typical year, which is around 0.53 (37,255/70,237). I used this approximate ratio to estimate the number of ROW I-140 receipts from July 10 to October 10, which is, 31,059*0.53 = 16,474. Next, I multiplied this number by 2.2 (Q's ratio) to estimate the number of actual visas the USCIS will have spent from Oct, 10 to Jan, 11 based on my 3 months lag logic. This number is, 16,474*2.2=36,243. The last thing I did is to extrapolate this number for the full year (12 months), which is, 36,243/4*12 = 108,730. So, basically the left over numbers (140,000 - 108,730 = 31,270) will be available for the spill over+ their own assigned yearly quota for India and China at the end of the year? Is it possible or are there any obvious flaws in my approach? Also, I can refine these numbers as the dashboard gets updated from time to time.

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Vedu, I think the leftover number you calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3 .... right? But again, I will suggest the same what I suggested to spec above.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vedu, I think the leftover number you calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3 .... right? But again, I will suggest the same what I suggested to spec above.

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Yes, the numbers calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3, etc. One flaw in my method is that I am not dividing the numbers in different visa categories and I am assuming that all visa categories of all the ROW countries are current, which is not necessarily true.

I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by hoping4thebest

I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?

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I did some very ROUGH calculations based on the PERM data from FY2008 - FY2010. It therefore doesn't include the period from August - December 2007, which might be quite significant. Also, because EB2-NIW doesn't require LC, they are not included. Since EB1 is Current and doesn't require LC and all Countries other than China and India in EB2 are Current, I haven't included any numbers for those.

---------- EB2 2008-2010
China ------- 13,953
India ------- 59,731
Mexico
Philippines
ROW

TOTAL ------- 73,684


---------- EB3 2008-2010
China -------- 5,980
India ------- 59,731
Mexico ------ 12,642
Philippines - 14,990
ROW --------- 64,873

TOTAL ------ 158,216

Including the Current backlog, where I-485s have been submitted, this would give approximate backlogs of :

EB2 --- 110k
EB3 --- 290k

plus excluded periods and Categories plus earlier PDs where I-485 has yet to be submitted.

I reiterate that it is a very rough calculation, which I haven't revisited or refined, so don't put too much store by it.

For instance, I have no doubt that the overall figure for EB3-Philippines is far too low, given that NVC data suggests they had 47k applications for CP processing as at November 01, 2010. Similarly, some of the other figures look slightly low. The figures above have quite a wide error margin. Treat them as indicative only.

I have seen estimates of the total backlog being 500k. That might not be far off.

Hope that helps.

Perhaps Teddy and Q want to give their thoughts, as I am aware of the limitations of these figures.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by hoping4thebest

I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?

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hp4b(hope you don't mind this abbreviation!), the number of people who missed (jul 07) boat is approx. 7%. The people who come after that can be deduced easily by looking at labor approvals (times 2.2).

Spec, Thanks for your very detailed post and breaking it up. I believe that the figure that you have come up with seems to be pretty much ok. This is the best that can be calculated today. The later half of 2007 which you have excluded can be used as a buffer to exclude cases wherein after an approved labor either someone did not file a 140 or got denied. The backlog is rising by the day and the situation is dire.

Q, quick question for you, in your calculations you have assumed the PWMB's to be 7% of the backlog however their concentration gets heavier as we move closer to Jul 2007. I would assume that From May 2006 to Apr 2007 this number maybe small or may probably be 5%, however May 2007 could be 10%, Jun 2007 could be 30% and Jul 2007 could well be 50%. So if we spread the PWMB's out does it help to move your projection a month further? Looking at Trackitt there seem to be a fair number of PWMB’s (The only way seems to be to open up the specific cases and reading the comments).

Teddy

You are right. But since 7% itself is a best guess, I stopped at that approximation and didn't add any more complication in terms of using different % for different months. Since we have tried to be conservative in predicting movements ... I would refrain from any such assumption that helps movement further but may have a question mark on it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec, Thanks for your very detailed post and breaking it up. I believe that the figure that you have come up with seems to be pretty much ok. This is the best that can be calculated today. The later half of 2007 which you have excluded can be used as a buffer to exclude cases wherein after an approved labor either someone did not file a 140 or got denied. The backlog is rising by the day and the situation is dire.

Q, quick question for you, in your calculations you have assumed the PWMB's to be 7% of the backlog however their concentration gets heavier as we move closer to Jul 2007. I would assume that From May 2006 to Apr 2007 this number maybe small or may probably be 5%, however May 2007 could be 10%, Jun 2007 could be 30% and Jul 2007 could well be 50%. So if we spread the PWMB's out does it help to move your projection a month further? Looking at Trackitt there seem to be a fair number of PWMB’s (The only way seems to be to open up the specific cases and reading the comments).

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Here is my exchange with sangiano on trackitt forum (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ge/last_page):

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kd2008 to sangiano:

The PERM case number usually is say for example A-11010-12345 then the middle 5 digits are the filing date in Julian format. So 11010 is basically 10th day of 2011 and so on. In Excel you can use the following: If the Case no. column is C then MID(C2,3,5) for the Case no. in Column in C2 and so on. Say you put this value of 11010 in Column B2, then use DATE(2000+INT(B2/1000),1,MOD(B2,1000)) to change to actual date format and you will get 1/10/11. Could you please run this and figure out the actual number of cases filed in each year?

Thanks!
(reply) (report this)
Posted by sangiano (2164) 12 hours 52 minutes ago

to kd2008:


Thanks for the simple function to convert the Julian Date.

I had done it already, but by a far more complicated method.

Here's the figures you requested as the Calendar Year that the PERM was received for all Countries.

2010 -- 18,050 -- 25.70%
2009 -- 38,422 -- 54.70%
2008 -- 10,942 -- 15.58%
2007 --- 2,726 -- 3.88%
2006 ------ 84 -- 0.12%
2005 ------ 13 -- 0.02%

Total - 70,237 -- 100.00%

I am not sure they are that useful, since we already knew that there was a lot of backlog reduction.

If we look at the last 4 months of the year, that should give a better idea of what is going to happen going into FY2011.

2010 -- 16,064 -- 74.602%
2009 --- 2,659 -- 12.348%
2008 --- 2,622 -- 12.177%
2007 ----- 176 -- 0.817%
2006 ------ 10 -- 0.046%
2005 ------- 2 -- 0.009%

Total - 21,533 -- 100.00%

As you can see, it is an entirely different picture.


It is ROW that is more important in many ways, so here are the figures for ROW (all except C,I,M & P) for the last 4 months.

2010 -- 5,799 -- 69.56%
2009 -- 1,124 -- 13.48%
2008 -- 1,329 -- 15.94%
2007 ----- 78 -- 0.94%
2006 ------ 5 -- 0.06%
2005 ------ 2 -- 0.02%

Total - 8,337 - 100.00%

and by the Fiscal year that the PERM was received (again based on the period June to September).

FY2010 -- 6,494 -- 77.89%
FY2009 ---- 468 -- 5.61%
FY2008 -- 1,356 -- 16.26%
FY2007 ----- 14 -- 0.17%
FY2006 ------ 4 -- 0.05%
FY2005 ------ 1 -- 0.01%

Total --- 8,337 - 100.00%

As you can see, the vast majority of approvals were coming from applications only received by DOL with the current FY.

Of course figures can be made to say anything.

I am sure that PERM approvals will decline in FY2011, but not by the amount some people are expecting.

As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC.

I hope you find the breakdown useful.
(reply) (report this)

to sangiano:

To sangiano,
Quote : "As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC. "
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First of all thanks for running the query. I can not understand how you derive at the conclusion that the EB2-ROW is capable of reaching approval levels seen in FY2010.

1. There were only 18050 approvals from 2010. As backlog is cleared I can expect not more than 20-25K approvals in FY2011.
2. It is safe to assume that 50% of the approvals will be for ROW. (12.5 K)
3. Out of these 50%, not more than 20-30% qualify for EB2.. (based on 2009 PERM stat). (4K)
4. Assuming each PERM represent three members...(EB2 ROW should not consume more than 12K Visas.)
5. If I do similar math to the FY2010 last 4 months approvals figures...(Last 4 months approval 8 K, 30% EB2 is 2.5 K, multiply by 3 = 7.5 K)
(Not sure if they were flowed through to FY2011. It is likely that some of them are already taken care of in FY2010 quota)
6. This accounts for 19.5 K EB2 Visas for ROW, leaving 15 K for India & Chiana.

Correct me if I am missing anything here.

Thanks,
dg0320
(reply) (report this)
Posted by sangiano (2164) 11 hours ago

to dg0320:

I think your calculation will underestimate the amount.

Yes there are 18k approvals from CY2010, but that doesn't represent the total for a fiscal year. It represents only 9 months. Prorated up, that would become 24k. Then there are those approvals as a result of PERMs received at the end of FY2009, but not approved until FY2010.

Rather than looking at the total, I think you should look at the rate at the end of the year, which was 4k / month in the last 4 months and the same when calculated over the last 3 months. That would give you 48k per year.

Figures suggest that ROW (if you include M & P) is 55%

A ratio of 20:80 or 30:70 for EB2:EB3 is unrealistically low IMO.

The historical ratio for I-485s in EB2 is 2.1 members. If older cases Port, this might rise, but 3 might be too high.

My rough calculation would run something like this.

Purely PERM approvals from the FY for ROW at the same rate would be 1,624 / month. There will be some others so let's say 1,750 / month.

That gives approvals in FY2011 of 21,000.

Using a 50:50 ratio for EB2:EB3 gives 10,500 EB2 PERM approvals. At 2.1 I-485 applicants per I-140, that is 22,050 I-485s.

But not all PERMs started in FY2011 will translate to I-485s in FY2011. If we say that only those approved in the first 8 months will convert to I-485 approvals, then that would be 14,700 I-485s.

Then we need to add back PERMs approved in the last 4 months of FY2010 but not translating into I-485 approvals until FY2011.

That figure is around 10,000. I agree it might be slightly less than that.

14,700 + 10,000 = 24,700 which is about what Trackitt data suggests ROW received in FY2010.

Again, ROW means all Countries other than China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Mexico & Philippines usually consume around 3,000 EB2 visas, so total EB2 visas excluding India and China would be 27,700 from an allocation of 34,434, leaving 6,734 available to EB2 India and China.

Alternatively, you can simply assume that PERM approvals will reduce to 80% of FY2010 levels, which would give 56,000 PERM approvals in FY2011. Then assuming ROW (excl M & P) stay at 44% of approvals, the figures calculate out as slightly higher.

I certainly don't believe that PERM approvals will return to a figure as low as that seen in FY2009, which your figures state.

As I said in my previous post, the figures can be interpreted in many ways. I certainly don't claim mine is any better than anyone else's.

Best of luck with your number crunching efforts.

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KD ... fine thinking by you and Sangiano. Thank you. Sangiano is a level headed guy and I would take his advice seriously.

If somebody didn't have time to read through the entire exchange here is a simple way I look at it.

8K ROW PERM approvals in last 4 months translate to 24K approvals for full year. Of which 12K are EB2ROW. Which translate to 26K EB2ROW 485s for full year approvals - which means about 8K SOFAD to IC (given MP are already in the PERM approvals). Even otherwise MP have low EB2 demand and whatever demand they have would be offset by possible rejections/withdrawals within the ROW labor going to 140 and 485 stages.

p.s. - I wouldn't complicate things by introducing time lag in approvals (i.e. labor to 140 to 485) because it is futile. USCIS has its own idosyncracies in terms of processing different stages and I wouldn't bet on them one way or other.

Thanks again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Here is my exchange with sangiano on trackitt forum (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ge/last_page):

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Does the prediction match with the Jan Demand Data released today?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

welcome to forum. Thanks for question .... although I didn't understand your question.

This demand data itself won't confirm/deny our predictions. The grand test will come around jul-sep 2011 when all SOFAD comes into the picture.

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Originally Posted by hsinghjkaur

Does the prediction match with the Jan Demand Data released today?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

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Check this out. Hopefully and eventually we will have an idea about the volume of these cases. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...a-12-15-10.pdf

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Check this out. Hopefully and eventually we will have an idea about the volume of these cases. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...a-12-15-10.pdf

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finally some good memos.

I also find helpful this pharagraph

"(e) Regressed Visa Number Cases.
(1) General. Generally, the availability dates on the Visa Bulletin move forward, but
they sometimes move backward, or “regress.” If a visa number regresses after an
alien has properly filed an application for adjustment of status, and the alien appears
to be eligible for such adjustment, he or she is allowed to remain in the United States
until a visa number again becomes available. The application is held in abeyance
pending a visa number availability only if the application is otherwise approvable.
While the case is awaiting availability of the regressed visa number, the alien is
eligible for issuance of interim benefits such as an employment authorization
document and advance parole for the purposes of employment and travel outside
the United States and return, respectively, at the discretion of the director having
jurisdiction over the matter (see AFM Chapter 54). However, if the alien is ineligible
for adjustment due to an issue not related to visa availability (e.g., inadmissibility
under section 212(a) of the Act), the application should be denied accordingly.
Therefore, the adjudication (including the interview) should proceed regardless of
the visa number availability at the time of adjudication to determine the applicant’s
eligibility."

I think this is good for how already filled I-485 because at least they don't need to wait for years to find out that is something wrong and they are not eligible for greencard.

Is something cooking. Looks like Eb2 is current

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

THIS IS AMAZING !!!!!!! TexDBoy you made everybody's day here!!

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 January 2005 1 January 2005
FX 1 April 2005 1 April 2005
F2A 1 January 2008 1 January 2008
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 January 2001 1 January 2001
F4 1 January 2000 1 January 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 Current Current
E3 22 February 2002 1 April 2005
EW 22 February 2002 1 May 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

This allows all EB2 waiting to file 485 to do so next month. Guys .... get ready to do it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TexDBoy

Is something cooking. Looks like Eb2 is current

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

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