All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

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it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

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Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

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Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

Opening this thread for all those lucky folks who get 485 approvals :-)

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

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I suspected the same when CPO emails were sent to few ( few in trackitt, we may not know how many exactly).

June 2007 porter who has I-140 approved in Jan 2013 got CPO. I wonder if he had been listed in EB2 I DD at all . Appears to be a striaght forward case as all documents must be recent and in order.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

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One approval just posted with "02/01/2005" priority date on trackitt

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

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what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

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Originally Posted by indiani

what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?

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It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

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assuming 7%, so far about 20 got approved on trackitt, so approx 300 total.
By the end of the day I hope it will be atleast 40 on trackitt ( as many might update in the evening after work), so it will translate to 550+, that should clear all cases by the end of the month.

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Originally Posted by GCKnowHow

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

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it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

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Originally Posted by indiani

it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

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Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

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Originally Posted by GCKnowHow

Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

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not even half are updating the tracker, they are just posting in about a dozen threads scattered through out.
my estimation last time is about 20, as I mentioned before many might not have even posted as they might be at work.
at the end on tonight if we see 40 that will be a good sign.
that means almost 500-800 might be approved today.

moreover even after adjudication there is a lagtime of hour or so before the online status/emails are sent out, thats why some might even see at 6:30 EST or later or early tomorrow am.

so far encouraging signs

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

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Originally Posted by willywonka

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

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Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

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Originally Posted by indiani

Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

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As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

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I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

addendum: the emails seem to be coming even now and the "scoreboard" without dependents seems to be 24, so the actual number might be well above 600, usually the approvals on 2nd or 3rd day will be peak, so I guess tomorrow we might see almost twice the approvals of today IMO, i.e 50 excluding dependents

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Originally Posted by indiani

I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

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Trackitt conversion ratios are based on approvals updated in trackitt I-485 tracker, every year there are cases who don't enter details in trackitt. We need much more approvals as we are expecting total approvals between 10-13K. I hope by next week the approvals will be high.

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

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Originally Posted by indiani

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

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Thats about 400 "real cases". i expect it will pick up but we are looking at ~3500 approvals by next Friday.

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Originally Posted by indiani

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

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It's been my observation that the number of approvals for a given day in the Tracker will take at least a week to register proper numbers, so don't despair at the lower than expected number.

The excitement of the moment after such a long period of retrogression seems to have made people forget to update their status, but around 80% will do so eventually.

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

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Originally Posted by longwait100

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

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my assumptions are very close to yours, its fair to say almost everyone believes few hundred to almost 1000 might have been approved today with median being about 400 IMO.

That is fairly good outcome and 1st day usually is not the highest number , it will usually peak on 3rd day but as its a Saturday;
from Monday onwards fairly quickly the pace should pick up. after about 10 days we will be counting people who didn't get GC

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Trackitt conversion ratios are based on approvals updated in trackitt I-485 tracker, every year there are cases who don't enter details in trackitt. We need much more approvals as we are expecting total approvals between 10-13K. I hope by next week the approvals will be high.

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based on your latest analysis on trackitt it appears that as many as 60 ( including dependents) might have been approved and if you consider this 10% then maybe 600 are approved and I have a feeling that both of us will get approval by Saturday :)

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Originally Posted by indiani

based on your latest analysis on trackitt it appears that as many as 60 ( including dependents) might have been approved and if you consider this 10% then maybe 600 are approved and I have a feeling that both of us will get approval by Saturday :)

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I was just helping the OP, as he wanted to see PD of approved cases. I actually wanted to break up the data by porting cases to understand better. Based on PD of the cases, it is very close, 50:50 between interfiling and regular. By end of next week we may be able to make some reasonable projections . I do like your feeling about our approvals, Amen to that :)

called L2 and she said its in " review" / "processing" and she can't say when decision can be made.

Its one of the most primitive and inefficient system and I am starting to get bit anxious already even though we are still in the "2nd over" ( cricket jargon).

I thought the pace will really pick up today but it appears that it might be a bit slower than yesterday and the system is anything but transparent.

Trackitt posts are the only info we can get about the approval rate as even the tracker isn't being updated right away by most.

I am checking my email and online status almost every few minutes ( visceral reaction)

Indiani, I hear you buddy, today seems to be a little slow so far based on the trackitt approvals......getting a little anxious too but I guess we don't have any other option other than just wait, wait and wait for our turn.

hope we get to see the light soon!

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Originally Posted by indiani

called L2 and she said its in " review" / "processing" and she can't say when decision can be made.

Its one of the most primitive and inefficient system and I am starting to get bit anxious already even though we are still in the "2nd over" ( cricket jargon).

I thought the pace will really pick up today but it appears that it might be a bit slower than yesterday and the system is anything but transparent.

Trackitt posts are the only info we can get about the approval rate as even the tracker isn't being updated right away by most.

I am checking my email and online status almost every few minutes ( visceral reaction)

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set up the text messaging thing... its the best...unless ofcourse you have your email pushed to your phone.

EB2 - PD 15NOV2007, still in initial review, getting nervous. I talked to L2 officer and she said its been pre-adj and someone worked on the case yesterday ... What that means? if someone worked means, is there any other "line of people" that needs to work on single case ?
This wait is killing me, do not want to miss this time ...

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Originally Posted by vizcard

set up the text messaging thing... its the best...unless ofcourse you have your email pushed to your phone.

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I have txt/email alerts set and also have email notification in iphone but when i got RFE, just online status changed , no email or txt.

Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?

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Originally Posted by longwait100

Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?

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longwait,

Considering everything, I don't think the pace of approvals is particularly slow. Judge it in a week when the early dates start to become more representative.

I wouldn't agree that all cases are accounted for in the DD - a significant number of porting applications are not IMO.

Picking Low hanging fruits: Demand existing in 2005 and untouched till todate would have lot of Qs to be attended as to a DD as fresh as a classic ported case with fresh I-140 as late as Jan/Feb 2013 which will get fast approval

As SPEC mentioned earlier - it is a classic example of 'Picking Low hanging fruits/

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Originally Posted by longwait100

Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?

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thanks for the response Spec, I was actually pointing towards the direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 that are already pre-adjudicated and accounted for in the DD. I was expecting the rate of approval to pick up starting today since we got about 8000 direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 all set for approval just needing a visa number to push the approval button.

Anyways as you suggested, let's wait and watch the space!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

longwait,

Considering everything, I don't think the pace of approvals is particularly slow. Judge it in a week when the early dates start to become more representative.

I wouldn't agree that all cases are accounted for in the DD - a significant number of porting applications are not IMO.

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what percentage of total trackitt cases are approved, I could see the score card where mostly primary approvals are there and there are about 44 approvals now., is there anyway to calculate what is the number of total EB2I cases prior to Jan 2008 on trackitt?
then we can see what percentage of total cases are approved.

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Originally Posted by longwait100

thanks for the response Spec, I was actually pointing towards the direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 that are already pre-adjudicated and accounted for in the DD. I was expecting the rate of approval to pick up starting today since we got about 8000 direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 all set for approval just needing a visa number to push the approval button.

Anyways as you suggested, let's wait and watch the space!

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The only extra step for the cases not in the DD that already have a pre-adjudicated I-485 under EB3 is to request the visa under EB2. That might be 2 screens and less than a minute. I don't think cases showing in the DD as EB2 have any particular advantage over that type of case.

If there is no pre-existing I-485 then the IOs won't be seeing them for some time yet.

PS:- Anyone else having trouble accessing the forum today? There's large period where the site times out for me.

most of them if not all in trackitt EB2 approvals in last 2 days has "received email from attorney" and priority dates in 2013. I signed up for email notification for any status change. Is there a chance my attorney gets status change notification without me getting SMS/email/online status change?

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Originally Posted by kumar19

most of them if not all in trackitt EB2 approvals in last 2 days has "received email from attorney" and priority dates in 2013. I signed up for email notification for any status change. Is there a chance my attorney gets status change notification without me getting SMS/email/online status change?

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no. if the change is made online, you will also get it.