EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020
- Sep 07 - We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE
General Trends
Tailwinds (+ve things)
· Economy is not doing that bad but the PERM certification show it is not doing great. We expect this trend to continue into 2015.
· Very low EB3 demand
. 4K extra visas from FB.
Headwinds (-ve things)
. High EB2ROW demand and equally high EB2 overall demand.
· Increased EB1 usage & current EB1 backlog.
· EB5 close to being retrogressed.
Impact of Presidential Executive Order on Immigration
The Executive Order issued by President Obama on Nov 20th is directional and not prescriptive. It leaves the agencies and departments to determine the specific course of action. There are two tangible benefits that can be expected in near term (3 months) as a result of this order.
1. The president has asked CBP officers to not consider prior visa violations while giving entry to a person using advanced parole.
2. There is an H4-EAD rule being discussed (even prior to the Executive Order). So as part of the executive order the agencies might finally implement this in next couple of months.
From backlog reduction / visa relief perspective the order leaves it upto agencies to decide what specific action they would take. It is highly likely that ability to file 485 without dates being current would be one of the things the agencies might propose within next 6 months. Somewhat likely also could be visa recapture from prior years. Visa recapture is the process of counting unused visas from prior years and making them available going forward. Such action previously has only been possible with a law being passed by congress. However many experts have opined that it DHS does not need a law to be passed in order to recapture unused visas from prior years. There is a third and less likely option that agencies might consider. It includes not counting EB dependents under EB quota. This will effectively almost double EB quota for every year and could possibly make all categories current for foreseeable future. Please understand these are all possibilities at this point of time.
Spec's Predictions for FY2017
As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.
FY2017
EB1
Without any substantial change, EB1 is likely to use its full allocation again in FY2017. This is even more likely, since EB1 China and India were retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016 - therefore up to 14 months of demand will be available in FY2017 for these Countries.
EB4
For EB4, CO has set a 15JUN15 FAD in October for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras within EB4 and expects slow progress during FY2017. If that's the case, then there will not be any spillover from EB4 in FY2017.
EB5
The EB5 regional center program is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of FY2016. If, as is widely expected, it is extended, then EB5 will not provide SO either. Even if the amounts required to qualify under the RC are substantially increased, there is already a large backlog of Chinese investors under the old system, sufficient for several years. Should the RC program eventually be abolished, it would provide a healthy number of spare visas in the short term.
Family Based Visas from FY2016
All FB Categories and Countries are retrogressed. FB should use all their 226k allocation in FY2016. Any spare visas would be a bonus. CO seems to be doing a better job utilizing them recently. As an update, CO has now published the anticipated Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2017. This shows no anticipated extra visas from FB use last FY, so the EB limit for FY2017 will be 140k. Although it may get updated at a later date, I don't expect much change - perhaps a few hundred as in FY2016.
PERM
PERM certifications for the last 6-7 months have remained very high, so the pipeline of ROW approvals for the first half of FY2017 is also likely to be quite high.
It's true that the PERM certifications have been high and the backlog has reduced (from 58.9k at the end of FY2015 to 38.6k at the end of Q3 FY2016). At some point, the certifications should slow, but it's not clear when this might happen. Last time (FY2011) OFLC brought the backlog down to 20k.
At the same time, the number of new PERM receipts also appears to have risen (from 87.6k in FY2015 to a prorated 99.4k in FY2016).
EB2
Worldwide
The high PERM pipeline plus retrogression in the last 2 months of FY2016 means that EB2-WW approvals are likely to remain relatively high for at least the first half of FY2017. Due to the retrogression, up to 14 months demand is available in FY2017 for EB2-WW.
India
The prospects for EB2-I in FY2017 look quite bleak. The sources of traditional spillover look to be dry for a second successive year. This might only change late in the FY.
EB3
India
High PERM certifications and a trend towards an increased % of ROW EB3 cases may put the squeeze on available Fall Across within EB3.
EB3-I still has the very difficult last week of March 2005 to traverse. Again, any substantial movement will happen very late in the FY. Until then, it will be glacially slow.
How to see the PERM CERT online
Gurus -
I do not have access to the PERM data docs. ( I don't want to ask the company or attorney!). I am interested in finding the exact job description used in PERM.
I do have the ETA Case number with me. I remember there used to be a way to see the details online in some site.
Can someone please help me with this.
Admin -
Pls move to appropriate thread, if this is not the correct one.
Thank you in advance.
Unofficial FY2014 PERM Figures
Unofficial PERM Certifications FY2014
The figures are based on OFLC Data for Q1-Q3 FY2014 and DOL LCR Data for Q4 FY2014.
I have updated the charts (only) in this post. The PERM posts will be updated when the official OFLC disclosure data is released.
The following shows certifications for FY2014 and the increase on certifications in FY2013. Certifications in FY2013 were 35,206.
FY2014 vs FY2013 ------ Increase
China -------- 4,696 ---- 120%
India ------- 35,164 ----- 68%
Mexico ------- 1,293 ----- 80%
Philippines -- 1,508 ----- 63%
ROW --------- 20,018 ----- 91%
ALL --------- 62,679 ----- 78%
The following shows the FY2014 figures for H1 (Q1-Q2) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H1 FY2013.
FY2014 vs FY2013 H1 - Increase
China -------- 1,831 ----- 37%
India ------- 14,539 ----- 18%
Mexico --------- 603 ----- 31%
Philippines ---- 684 ----- 23%
ROW ---------- 8,543 ----- 33%
ALL --------- 26,200 ----- 24%
The following shows the FY2014 figures for H2 (Q3-Q4) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H2 FY2013.
FY2014 vs FY2013 H2 - Increase
China -------- 2,865 ---- 257%
India ------- 20,625 ---- 140%
Mexico --------- 690 ---- 166%
Philippines ---- 824 ---- 122%
ROW --------- 11,475 ---- 182%
ALL --------- 36,479 ---- 159%
The following shows the relative % of certifications in FY2014 by half year and the % increase in H2 compared to H1.
FY2014 --------- H1 ---- H2 - H2 vs H1
China --------- 39% --- 61% --- 56%
India --------- 41% --- 59% --- 42%
Mexico -------- 47% --- 53% --- 14%
Philippines --- 45% --- 55% --- 20%
ROW ----------- 43% --- 57% --- 34%
ALL ----------- 42% --- 58% --- 39%
The following shows the relationship between certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2013 and Q1-Q2 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2014 GC approvals for Current Countries) versus the certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2015 GC approvals for Current Countries). Certifications to come in Q1-Q2 FY2015 are likely to also translate to GC approvals in FY2015.
------------- H2FY13/
------------- H1FY14 - H2FY14 --- %
China -------- 2,633 -- 2,865 - 109%
India ------- 23,116 - 20,625 -- 89%
Mexico --------- 862 ---- 690 -- 80%
Philippines -- 1,056 ---- 824 -- 78%
ROW --------- 12,608 - 11,475 -- 91%
ALL --------- 40,275 - 36,479 -- 91%
