EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
In 2010 - I along with a host of other really good people built GC predictions for our own benefit really. Over the years, hundreds of thousands others (perhaps millions) found them useful is an awesome fact but to tell the truth we started it for our own benefit. As all of us received our green cards we have moved on. All of you too will once you get your GC.
I too moved on and created WhereismyGC (www.whereismygc.com) a paid service. If you can afford to pay then WhereismyGC is the best place. I can vouch for it. The only thing I will caution is - sometimes some people find it too realistic. They can't handle the truth -- how long a wait they may have in store for them. Also some people can't digest the whole idea of probability. They think if they are paying then they are entitled to absolute truth. Well here is the thing - there is no absolute truth. Everything is probability and that's what WhereismyGC shows.
For such reasons or reasons such as can't or don't want to pay, then this forum is your playground. Build predictions and share with others. Believe me - there is a joy in doing so and earning some good Karma !!
I have earned some good friendships along that made my GC journey much easier. I hope yours will too.
Good luck to all.
p.s. - Archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE
Spec's Predictions for FY2017
As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.
FY2017
EB1
Without any substantial change, EB1 is likely to use its full allocation again in FY2017. This is even more likely, since EB1 China and India were retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016 - therefore up to 14 months of demand will be available in FY2017 for these Countries.
EB4
For EB4, CO has set a 15JUN15 FAD in October for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras within EB4 and expects slow progress during FY2017. If that's the case, then there will not be any spillover from EB4 in FY2017.
EB5
The EB5 regional center program is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of FY2016. If, as is widely expected, it is extended, then EB5 will not provide SO either. Even if the amounts required to qualify under the RC are substantially increased, there is already a large backlog of Chinese investors under the old system, sufficient for several years. Should the RC program eventually be abolished, it would provide a healthy number of spare visas in the short term.
Family Based Visas from FY2016
All FB Categories and Countries are retrogressed. FB should use all their 226k allocation in FY2016. Any spare visas would be a bonus. CO seems to be doing a better job utilizing them recently. As an update, CO has now published the anticipated Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2017. This shows no anticipated extra visas from FB use last FY, so the EB limit for FY2017 will be 140k. Although it may get updated at a later date, I don't expect much change - perhaps a few hundred as in FY2016.
PERM
PERM certifications for the last 6-7 months have remained very high, so the pipeline of ROW approvals for the first half of FY2017 is also likely to be quite high.
It's true that the PERM certifications have been high and the backlog has reduced (from 58.9k at the end of FY2015 to 38.6k at the end of Q3 FY2016). At some point, the certifications should slow, but it's not clear when this might happen. Last time (FY2011) OFLC brought the backlog down to 20k.
At the same time, the number of new PERM receipts also appears to have risen (from 87.6k in FY2015 to a prorated 99.4k in FY2016).
EB2
Worldwide
The high PERM pipeline plus retrogression in the last 2 months of FY2016 means that EB2-WW approvals are likely to remain relatively high for at least the first half of FY2017. Due to the retrogression, up to 14 months demand is available in FY2017 for EB2-WW.
India
The prospects for EB2-I in FY2017 look quite bleak. The sources of traditional spillover look to be dry for a second successive year. This might only change late in the FY.
EB3
India
High PERM certifications and a trend towards an increased % of ROW EB3 cases may put the squeeze on available Fall Across within EB3.
EB3-I still has the very difficult last week of March 2005 to traverse. Again, any substantial movement will happen very late in the FY. Until then, it will be glacially slow.
