PERM Backlog

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10-28-2010, 09:34 AM
TeddyKoochu

PERM Backlog

Acknowledgement - OH Law
The Oh Law Firm

10/27/2010: DOL Releases Today Full FY 2009 Foreign Labor Certification Report

On October 27, 2010, the DOL released a full report of FY 2009 foreign labor certifications covering permanent as well as temporary applications and detailed statistics by areas, occupation, and all other statistics. Read on.
It shows that the number of PERM certified cases showed a continuing decrease between FY 2008 and FY 2009. In FY 2008, there was a 42% decrease from FY 2007. The same numbers decreased 40% from FY 2008 and FY 2009. In FY 2009, the DOL certified 29,502 PERM applications. This was in part caused by 37% decrease in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Industry which accounted for the largest number of PERM certifications. Out of total, 38.6% were Indian nationals and 7.1% out of total were Chinese nationals, resulting in over 45% of out of total PERM applications were certified for these two nationals, followed by 6.3% by South Korea nationals, 5.5% by Filipinos, and 5.3% by Canadians.
10-28-2010, 10:24 AM
leo07

Good find...

Teddy,

is it possible to find--how much the ROW PERM filings declined from
2007-to-2008-to-2009?

a. Keeping all other factors constant( like ignoring EB1 increase, FB altogether), this will give us the ROW demand as the year progresses?
b. We can relate the %decrease over the years to the SOFAD gained? again keeping the other factors constant?

To me, 45% reduction is a good news, i.e increase in SOFAD, provided the reduction comes from the ROW and not I/C

Best!
10-28-2010, 10:49 AM
qesehmk

Thanks Teddy. I will quickly comment on this now and will later comment in detail and possibly update our model too.

The most important thing in this to note is obviously the decrease in demand. Right? But the second most important thing is that we didn't see as much SOFAD in 2010 because DOL and USCIS pulled in ROW demand by approving 2008-9-10. Going into 2011 this is a good news and we should see more SOFAD compared to 2010 (less the 10K FB spill of course) and teh accuracy of prediction should be quite high.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Acknowledgement - OH Law
The Oh Law Firm

10/27/2010: DOL Releases Today Full FY 2009 Foreign Labor Certification Report

On October 27, 2010, the DOL released a full report of FY 2009 foreign labor certifications covering permanent as well as temporary applications and detailed statistics by areas, occupation, and all other statistics. Read on.
It shows that the number of PERM certified cases showed a continuing decrease between FY 2008 and FY 2009. In FY 2008, there was a 42% decrease from FY 2007. The same numbers decreased 40% from FY 2008 and FY 2009. In FY 2009, the DOL certified 29,502 PERM applications. This was in part caused by 37% decrease in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Industry which accounted for the largest number of PERM certifications. Out of total, 38.6% were Indian nationals and 7.1% out of total were Chinese nationals, resulting in over 45% of out of total PERM applications were certified for these two nationals, followed by 6.3% by South Korea nationals, 5.5% by Filipinos, and 5.3% by Canadians.
10-28-2010, 02:53 PM
TeddyKoochu

Response to Q & Leo

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Teddy. I will quickly comment on this now and will later comment in detail and possibly update our model too.

The most important thing in this to note is obviously the decrease in demand. Right? But the second most important thing is that we didn't see as much SOFAD in 2010 because DOL and USCIS pulled in ROW demand by approving 2008-9-10. Going into 2011 this is a good news and we should see more SOFAD compared to 2010 (less the 10K FB spill of course) and teh accuracy of prediction should be quite high.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Teddy,

is it possible to find--how much the ROW PERM filings declined from
2007-to-2008-to-2009?

a. Keeping all other factors constant( like ignoring EB1 increase, FB altogether), this will give us the ROW demand as the year progresses?
b. We can relate the %decrease over the years to the SOFAD gained? again keeping the other factors constant?

To me, 45% reduction is a good news, i.e increase in SOFAD, provided the reduction comes from the ROW and not I/C

Best!

Q / Leo Iam trying to read literally and see where we arrive at.
Lets assume 2007 to be X.
The reduction was 42% from 2007 to 2008 so 2008 is .58X
Now the reduction was another 40% from 2008 to 2009
So 2009 = .6 * .58 = .348X.
So kind of fair to conclude that the PERM approvals in 2009 was in fact 1/3rd of 2007.
Now some facts, 2007 was a good time to file perm but in 2008 and 2009 Audit became te norm, however perm approvals accelerated in 2010. This acceleration in 2010 in fact hit us hard, Q you are bang on target.
Leo I think you are right in saying that the EB2 ROW demand trend can be mirrored to this. Also something that will make these statistics even rosier is that some of the perms from 2009 and 2010 are PD porting so the demand in terms of new people reduced even more, it is some of the older folks applying again however from the EB2 standpoint everything is demand. I believe all countries we can assume were hit hard in proportionate terms. Now since EB2 ROW backlog is less we can definitely expect to see higher SOFAD this year from EB2 ROW, however 2 factors will just counteract that a) NO FB that means -6500 b) Higher PD porting means -5000. A) and B) are my own approximate assumptions. Unfortunately we do not have a good way to see the EB1 demand, On Trackitt I found that EB2 ROW consumption in Oct 2010 is half of Oct 2009 which is good.
10-28-2010, 04:38 PM
leo07

Teddy, Thanks for your response.

Basically, I'm trying to see:( example)
2007-2008: 48% drop in EB-2 ROW demand created us say 20k SOFAD or just FAD
2008-2009 : 40% drop in EB2-ROW demand created us say 15k SOFAD or just FAD ( SOFAD or FAD whichever is easier, when other factors are constant, it really does not matter)

So, with the above approximations we can estimate the SOFAD for 2011, add/remove/tweak the constant factors( like remove the FD etc) and get to a number X.
I know we already have different approximations, just to compare one more.
10-29-2010, 09:31 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I agree w both A and B.

Teddy I think your 50K would be right overall. But ROW is already out of that. So EB2IC is about 33K between 08-10. Add 33K to 45-55K current backlog. That 88K.
That just satisfies to be fulfilled through 30K SOFAD per year.

Q, I think though the figure of 50K matched its coincidental we are saying different things. The Current I/C demand based on the Inventory and demand data is ~ 35K. This is the pre Aug 2007 demand.
Now we have PWMB, Porting and new demand post Aug 2007 for EB2 I/C will be atleast 50K. Most of it will be pre 2008 demand ~ 25K of it 2007 is the big year. I feel that the total figure just for I/C till say Jan 2010 is in the 90K range for EB2 I/C, note most of the people atleast 80% form I/C are filing EB2 these days. With 90K to cross at ~ 30K a year though this could be much more will take 3 years. It may well take people like me (Jul 07) and Leo (Jun 07) who are PWMB's 2 years to even get EAD. SOFAD more than 30K a year without any FB component looks a little tough though is not impossible. Please guide.
10-29-2010, 09:36 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Teddy, Thanks for your response.

Basically, I'm trying to see:( example)
2007-2008: 48% drop in EB-2 ROW demand created us say 20k SOFAD or just FAD
2008-2009 : 40% drop in EB2-ROW demand created us say 15k SOFAD or just FAD ( SOFAD or FAD whichever is easier, when other factors are constant, it really does not matter)

So, with the above approximations we can estimate the SOFAD for 2011, add/remove/tweak the constant factors( like remove the FD etc) and get to a number X.
I know we already have different approximations, just to compare one more.

The problem from the yester years is that some of the declines in these years did not yield corresponding SOFAD becoz of backlog. However now the backlog seems to be resolved. Lets take an example say EB2 ROW cap is ~ 34K. last year lets assume EB2 ROW used 24K and gave us 10K SOFAD. Now if consumption becomes 50% the SOFAD will become 34-12 = 22K. So essentially the demand reduction and SOFAD increase is not linear. Actually the reality is that all optimistic factors don't always add up this year though EB2 ROW will give us higher SOFAd this will be compensated by the higher porting and no FB.