EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013
Last Updated (Sep 15th 2013)
Friends,
Obtaining American Green Card is a crucial thing in every immigrant's life. However the journey is fraught with USCIS delays, apathetic employers and conniving managers that exploit the situation. To top it off the pain arising out of this, a GC applicant has to deal with the uncertainty of when s/he might get GC. This uncertainty keeps his/her life on hold in many situations. This blog aims to provide better clarity to immigrants so that they can make better decisions about life and career.
This blog is active for over 3 years now. People loved it for its objectivity, civility, transparency and collaborative and cooperative culture of participants.
Going forward.. we will use the same thread. This way people's bookmarks won't be messed up. We will archive and copy this entire thread into a new thread for 2013. We will use this thread for 2014. I will continue to update very first post of this thread and others can use this thread or create their own threads for predictions. I will provide directional prediction and continue to moderate the thread. My paid service at www.whereismygc.com will provide much more accurate and numbers based forecasting.
2013 Summary
In 2013 we saw "artificial" retrogression for EB2I. The reason I call it artificial is because the DOS could've chosen not to have retrogression by applying quarterly spillovers. However generally they choose to apply any spillovers at the end of year, thus EB2I happens to retrogress during entire year. However come Q4 i.e. Jul-Sep, it shows movement. We have called out this game every year and we have done it with flying colors. So EB2I folks need to understand that their retrogression is artificial during most of the year and then it catches up with a level where retrogression makes sense.
Anyway .. second key thing to remember from 2013 is FB spillover. EB received 18K extra visas from FB this year. This certainly helped EB2I tremendously and the dates moved into mid 2008. Without this spillover, the year was going to be tough for a multiple reasons. 1) We think EB2ROW not only didn't provide any extra visas to EB2IC, but rather it consumed almost 3K extra visas. 2) EB5 too may not have provided any visas this year to EB1 and consequently to EB2. Thus FB spillover and about 4-5K extra spillover from EB1 is what saved the day for EB2I for 2013.
The third interesting thing we observed this year is the divergence of EB2I and EB2C. Looks like that divergence is going to stay here because EB2C indeed has quite less demand. However funnily EB3C has advanced further than EB2C which is quite baffling. I think that clearly talks volumes about disillusioned EB3C folks who seems to have opted to go back to china or upgrade to EB2 to the level where almost nobody is left in EB3C which made the dates move fast. We saw the same phenomenon play out in EB3I where dates moved much quicker than anticipated. This movement is most likely sustainable. The underlying cause being portings, cancellations and abandonment of GC applications. Finally again the same phenomenon played out in EB3ROW where the dates moved quite faster than expected. What is more interesting and somewhat alarming in EB3ROW trend is that for a couple of years EB2ROW may continue to see the effect of porting and may have unusual demand which will reduce any extra spillover to EB2I.
2014 Outlook
The fact that Oct shows no retrogression for EB2I is a good sign. It means that DOS made a calibrated movement for EB2I and most of the backlog through Jun 2008 will be cleared using FY 2013 quota.
In 2014 there may not be any FB spillover and if so, that is going to be a bad news for EB2I which may not see movement beyond Dec 2008. Here are some directional things about each category.
EB1 - Will stay current and might provide 3-5K spillover to EB2.
EB2ROW - might consumer 3-4K more than its allocation.
EB3ROW - will likely continue its forward march.
EB5 - will likely provide 4-5K spillover.
EB4 - will provide 3-4K spillover.
Thus EB2I might land up with 8K spillover + 3K allocation which should be sufficient to move the dates around end of 2008 or beginning of 2009.
Of course right now we do not have good data to back this up. So take this for what it's worth only as a directional commentary.
Good luck to everybody.
p.s. I will continue to update this thread and provide critical / directional commentary once a month.
Regards
Q
For more general information and 2013 old forecast please read below:
General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.
2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated 11 Jul 03
Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between Feb-July 2008 by Sep 2013 based on my personal calculations.
Reasoning
Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases. (9k YTD usage already confirmed)
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume between 1-5K more than its usual quota. (assuming 5K porting)
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 5K to EB1.
Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.
Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 5K (ROW overage) = 18K visas.
That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog upto May 2008.
The upside to the May 2008 forecast could be upto Jul 2008 and the downside is Feb 2008. The risk or opportunity both lie in EB2ROW this year. The other categories don't have much variables. Any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner this year are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com especially if you want to build your own forecast etc. Good luck.
Spec's Predictions for FY2013
Update on June 12, 2013
There is a fairly strong indication that "the priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin".
That can be interpreted to mean a Cut Off Date between 01FEB08 and 01MAR08 depending how you parse the statement.
Without any porting, progress to those dates would take between 9-10k.
With porting of anywhere between 4-7k, that would be 13-17k total approvals to EB2-I if every case was approved. In reality, some people will be "left behind", so the likely number of approvals will be towards the lower end of that range.
The bright spot might be if EB2-WW approvals continue to slow. That would allow slightly further movement. The "elephant in the room" is the level of EB1 approvals, which no-one has a good handle on.
Update on April 04, 2013
Only because people seem to want one. The information available isn't very clear.
EB2-I might receive anything between 8k and 17k approvals, depending on how EB1 and EB2-WW perform. A mid point would be about 13 - 15k approvals i.e. towards the upper end.
Assuming not all cases are approved, that might move the Cut Off dates to the end of February/March 2008, using that mid point. At the upper end, June 2008 might be possible.
If a significant number of porting cases are delayed (due to RFE or processing time when they become Current), then the Cut Off Dates could move a bit further than mentioned above.
More time is needed to see what EB1 and EB2-WW will do in the coming months. Assumed Porting numbers have to be a guess and may be wrong.
Update on March 10, 2013 to make things clearer
The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.
FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.
EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.
EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.
EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.
Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158k being available to EB:
EB1 ------ 10.2
EB2-M --- }
EB2-P --- } 0.0
EB2-ROW - }
EB3 ------- 0.0
EB4 ------- 3.3
EB5 ------- 1.3
Total ---- 14.8 k spillover.
At that level EB2-China would receive 1k as 7% of Fall Down, giving 4.2k with the initial allocation of 3.2k.
EB2-India would have around 17k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.
That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about April 2008.
The above is probably a mid point. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P. For instance, if EB1 were use 40k again in FY2013, then dates might struggle to even be in early 2008.
Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move slightly further than that.
Movement into 2009 now seems impossible.
Where the dates move to is going to depend on the performance of EB1, EB2-ROW and just how many porting applications there are / are approved.
Posted January 01, 2013
Q1 is now history.
I am relatively less optimistic based on the Trackitt figures to date, although I would like to see the actual FY2012 numbers.
Any hope of spillover from EB5 must now be discounted.
EB4 was artificially low in FY2011 due the withdrawal of concurrent filing for Religious Workers cases part way through the year. Unless there is specific evidence to the contrary, EB4 can be expected to return to full usage. The FY2012 figures from DOS will confirm this theory (or not).
EB2-WW has used approaching 40% of their yearly allocation in 3 months. Barring extremely slow adjudication times, EB2-WW looks like it will use its entire allocation and there is some risk of EB2-WW also using spillover available from EB1.
Judging from CO comments on August 30, 2012:
Quote:
• Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why.
Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown.
The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October.
In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates.
The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.
EB1 usage in FY2012 approached 40k. Again, the official Visa Statistics will tell the truth of this.
The USCIS Inventory does not suggest backlog reduction, since the October 2011 and October 2012 EB1 figures are almost identical.
Relatively high EB1 usage in FY2013 must also be expected.
The signs are that there will be very little spillover available in FY2013. In fact, adjusted for various factors, the underlying spillover in FY2012 wasn't very high either, but a combination of the extra visas available from FB and the use by EB2-IC of EB2-WW visas only made it look so.
All this tends to point to EB2-I only having 6k or less total visas available to them in FY2013. The majority of these will be consumed by porting cases, leaving very few to clear existing cases.
An ending Cut Off Date in mid 2007 will be a good result, but that is not guaranteed. I do not think there is any chance of the Cut Off date reaching 2008. The actual number of porting cases approved will determine the final Cut Off Date.
Added January 04, 2013 to be consistent with other posts
Spillover -- Min ----- Max --- Avge.
EB1 ---------- 0 --- 5,000 --- 2,500
EB2-WW -- (5,000) ------ 0 -- (2,500)
EB4 ---------- 0 --- 2,000 --- 1,000
EB5 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0
Total --- (5,000) -- 7,000 --- 1,000
Approvals Available to EB2-India
EB2-I ---- 2,803 --- 9,803 --- 6,303
Posted September 25, 2012
At this moment, a prediction for FY2013 is a fools errand because of so many unknowns.
With the scant information available, here goes anyway.
A mid-point scenario might see EB2-I receive 9.8k visas in FY2013 (7k extra).
That would move Cut Off Dates to the very beginning of 2008, if 4.5k porting was assumed.
Numbers are much less in the period Jan 1, 2008 to March 14, 2008 than the remainder of 2008 due the extra month they had for approval in FY2012. Only a further 2.5k are required to hit this mark. Since not all cases will be closed out, even 9.8k visas for EB2-I can move the Cut Off date into this territory. After that 1.1 - 1.3k per month are required in 2008.
Personally, I think EB1 will hit at least 35k in FY2013.
Big unknowns are whether EB2-WW either uses spillover, uses none, or give some fall across. Increased usage by Philippines is not a good indicator.
EB5 will give little to no spillover (maybe 2k at most).
EB4 is an unknown quantity. In FY2011, it gave significant spillover. It remains to be seen whether this was a once off event, or whether it will be repeated. A better idea will become apparent when the FY2012 DOS Statistics are published. Hopefully, we will see a return to them being published in January, rather than August.
I differ with some and think porting numbers may be higher than I have indicated above. If USCIS have followed their own AFM, then none of the cases submitted since dates became Unavailable will yet appear in the DOS Demand Data, since the final conversion (and thus visa request under EB2) cannot take place until the PD is Current.
The very best I think is possible (but less likely) with all favorable possibilities is mid 2008.
If some assumptions don't pan out, then the dates will end in 2007.
The (very, very unlikely) worst scenario really is too dire to contemplate.
China will move completely independently of India and end at some point in 2008.
The information available at the moment is poor. The prediction can be refined when that situation improves with time.
Don't take it too seriously at the moment.
Teddy's Predictions For FY - 2013
Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.
The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.
There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. .
When is the first big sweep predicted for EB2-I in 2013
Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.
And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.
USCIS Processing Times Updated
They can be found here
As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:
NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012
Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.
That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.
