EB2C Movement in 2013

Thanks for all the great info provided in this thread. Irrespective of the actual movement that might take place, I feel the analysis here is very useful to keep things interesting during the wait and also plan events per conservative estimates. Recently EB2 China has been moving ahead of India and to a layman (like me) this seems to indicate China might reach PD EB2 2009 sooner than India. However, reading through some the information from this thread, looks like when SO happens it really wouldn't matter how far ahead China is as the SO would be allocated more to India and in essence put them both at the same PD ..... is that an accurate assumption?

My spouse is Chinese and when we filed our ED both of our PD were same, now that China has been showing some movement... she seems bit optimistic about China PD reaching 2009 during sometime in 2013. So assuming 13,000 visa numbers will be available to India and China in FY2013... how many would China "actually" get?

Thanks,

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Originally Posted by infoseek

Thanks for all the great info provided in this thread. Irrespective of the actual movement that might take place, I feel the analysis here is very useful to keep things interesting during the wait and also plan events per conservative estimates. Recently EB2 China has been moving ahead of India and to a layman (like me) this seems to indicate China might reach PD EB2 2009 sooner than India. However, reading through some the information from this thread, looks like when SO happens it really wouldn't matter how far ahead China is as the SO would be allocated more to India and in essence put them both at the same PD ..... is that an accurate assumption?

My spouse is Chinese and when we filed our ED both of our PD were same, now that China has been showing some movement... she seems bit optimistic about China PD reaching 2009 during sometime in 2013. So assuming 13,000 visa numbers will be available to India and China in FY2013... how many would China "actually" get?

Thanks,

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infoseek,

Welcome to the forum.

You are correct that any spillover available to Countries that have reached the 7% limit would be allocated by earliest PD.

EB2-C would not receive any more visas than the 2.8k allocation until EB2-I reached the EB2-C Cut Off Date achieved by that number.

If only 13k visas were available to EB2-IC, EB2-C would still only receive 2.8k, since that number would not allow EB2-I to reach the EB2-C Cut Off Date, depending on whether EB2-C has much porting cases.

Without any further EB2-I porting cases, at least 17k would need to be available to EB2-IC for EB2-C to receive extra numbers. In reality, the number is probably closer to 20k.

Assuming no porting, EB2-C should reach around mid 2008 by the end of FY2013.

Thanks Spec.

I have looked at the demand numbers ... not in detail but just to get an idea. Looks like it's reasonable to expect a 35 -40 movement /VB in 2013 for EB2C (esp.. as trend is suggesting that PD are being handled conservatively). Assuming no spillover due to reasons stated above following might be the possible trend for EB2C going into 2013. Nothing new, just a approximate estimate ...http://i.imgur.com/i4HUv.gif