EB3 ROW Future Movement

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11-09-2012, 12:23 PM
drugoi

EB3 ROW Future Movement

Any predictions for Eb3 ROW movement?
Is is going to continue month by month?
I try to understand PERM data and build some projection on that, but it's combined ROM M and P, so not sure if it's valid. Also it's not included any dependents

Any ideas?
11-09-2012, 01:29 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by drugoi

Any predictions for Eb3 ROW movement?
Is is going to continue month by month?
I try to understand PERM data and build some projection on that, but it's combined ROM M and P, so not sure if it's valid. Also it's not included any dependents

Any ideas?

drugoi,

Welcome to the forum.

I can only give you my personal opinion. If it's any consolation, I can't work out EB3 numbers from the PERM data either.

Judging by the Demand Data and progress to date, plus CO's comments in the December VB on likely movement in coming months, EB3 ROW, Mexico and China look like they will exhaust the current backlog not later than July 2013. The same cannot be said for EB3-Philippines, who appear to have very high demand compared to visas available.

To ensure that visas allocated to EB3 ROW-M-C are not wasted, CO is going to have to advance the Cut Off Dates beyond July 2007 several months before that point (at least that is what happened when EB2-IC were in a similar position) to build up an Inventory and ensure that approvals can continue throughout the FY.

The caveat is, that if there are cases that have not yet been pre-adjudicated, then the Demand Data will be showing artificially low numbers and it will take longer to exhaust the backlog.
11-09-2012, 05:16 PM
drugoi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

drugoi,

Welcome to the forum.

I can only give you my personal opinion. If it's any consolation, I can't work out EB3 numbers from the PERM data either.

Judging by the Demand Data and progress to date, plus CO's comments in the December VB on likely movement in coming months, EB3 ROW, Mexico and China look like they will exhaust the current backlog not later than July 2013. The same cannot be said for EB3-Philippines, who appear to have very high demand compared to visas available.

To ensure that visas allocated to EB3 ROW-M-C are not wasted, CO is going to have to advance the Cut Off Dates beyond July 2007 several months before that point (at least that is what happened when EB2-IC were in a similar position) to build up an Inventory and ensure that approvals can continue throughout the FY.

The caveat is, that if there are cases that have not yet been pre-adjudicated, then the Demand Data will be showing artificially low numbers and it will take longer to exhaust the backlog.

Thank's,

I have basically same conclusion about trajectory. Visa Office should start to progress PD around March/April to allow 4-6 month window for uscis process.
If CO don't want to create same EB2I fiasco like in last year, than he will start to move data early to allow enough time to build demand. If uscis will work slow then we will see PD rapidly moving well beyond end of 2007, maybe up to late 2008. And then retrogress back to 2007.
02-11-2013, 05:34 PM
drugoi

Quote:

Originally Posted by drugoi

Thank's,

I have basically same conclusion about trajectory. Visa Office should start to progress PD around March/April to allow 4-6 month window for uscis process.
If CO don't want to create same EB2I fiasco like in last year, than he will start to move data early to allow enough time to build demand. If uscis will work slow then we will see PD rapidly moving well beyond end of 2007, maybe up to late 2008. And then retrogress back to 2007.

So far, for last 3 VB they move date by one and a half month per VB. looks like VO takes very conservative approach and rush to move date rapidly.
If they true visibility is 5100

HTML Code:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

then we are looking for about 3 upcoming VB's until all demand will be completely exhausted.
I wounder what they planning to do. If they continue 6weeks pattern then in July VB it could be almost zero demand (visible demand) and only 3 months before end of the year. Following that VO can waste some of the visas. Unless more people will apply or already applied and then that, currently invisible demand, will eat all availble numbers.

Still think that VO will move dates at least to end of to 2007 by September VB.
02-16-2013, 03:39 AM
slave4now

S,

I am new in this forum. What is ur best projection as to how EB3 P will end up with for FY13? My 2nd question, what is ur best projection as to when my PD will become current? PD Jun 9, '09 EB3 P. Thank u in advance and would much appreciate if u can reply before Monday 2/18.