HR3012 Passage & Its Impact of EB

[Nov2010]

Teddy & Gurus,

Based on the latest 485 inventory can we predict how the PD shall move if HR3012 becomes law of the land?

[Mavrick]

If HR 3012 becomes law, close to 40,000 guaranteed numbers will be available every year for EB2 I&C based on FIFO logic until EB2 I&C inventory vanishes. Now without HR3012, we get anywhere from 20K to 35K numbers approximately for EB2 I&C based on spill overs from other categories.

One more good thing if HR 3012 becomes law is, EB2 I&C will get the ~ 40,000numbers in beginning of Fiscal Year rather than waiting for quarterly spill over numbers or end of the year spill over numbers. This one factor itself will reduce the GC wait time for I&C by anywhere 6-12 months.


Teddy & Gurus,

Based on the latest 485 inventory can we predict how the PD shall move if HR3012 becomes law of the land?

[vizcard]

If HR 3012 becomes law, close to 40,000 guaranteed numbers will be available every year for EB2 I&C based on FIFO logic until EB2 I&C inventory vanishes. Now without HR3012, we get anywhere from 20K to 35K numbers approximately for EB2 I&C based on spill overs from other categories.

One more good thing if HR 3012 becomes law is, EB2 I&C will get the ~ 40,000numbers in beginning of Fiscal Year rather than waiting for quarterly spill over numbers or end of the year spill over numbers. This one factor itself will reduce the GC wait time for I&C by anywhere 6-12 months.

In the first 3 yrs after enactment, there are some restrictions which will result in the ~40K (but there will be a reserved quota for EB2ROW). After that it will truly be FIFO.

So assuming HR3012 is enacted for FY13, most likely 2008, 2009 and 2010 will get greened by Sep 2014. Ofcourse we don't truly understand the 2009 and 2010 inventory yet so take that will a grain of salt..

[Mavrick]

This scenario seems more relevant. I also think if HR 3012 passes, CO have to move the dates very aggressively post May 2010 to create enough demand and to process enough applications beforehand. As Q mentioned in the other form, the question now is, will the senate take up this bill before election?


In my understanding, the movement will be better than that. Assuming HR 3012 becomes law, in the first transition year (FY 2013), EB2-IC is entitled to 34K numbers to begin with (85% of the whole EB2 pie). Assuming a conservative 10K spillover from EB1/4/5, EB2-IC will consume 44K visas. In reality, it will be more (perhaps 50K), and looking at the current pending inventory, worst case scenario is that everyone until May 1st 2010 will get greened in FY 2013.

In FY 2014, most likely, EB2-IC will make another 1.5 to 2 years worth of jump and go to the end of 2011. That's where EB2-IC and EB2-ROW will meet most likely. The third transition year is inconsequential. All of Eb2 will move together in FIFO and PD will possibly lag 18 months behind in the immediate aftermath and the GC issuance will be approximately 2 years behind.

That's an approximate ballpark effect on EB2 in the aftermath of possible passage of HR 3012. We can dream too!

[qesehmk]

Vizcard,The restrictions you mention below -are they part of HR3012 or you are speculating?

Because otherwise - what sportsfan lays out is a pretty accurate picture of how things will go.


In the first 3 yrs after enactment, there are some restrictions which will result in the ~40K (but there will be a reserved quota for EB2ROW).

[vizcard]

Vizcard,The restrictions you mention below -are they part of HR3012 or you are speculating?

Because otherwise - what sportsfan lays out is a pretty accurate picture of how things will go.

Those are the transition clauses in HR3012 to make sure that the EB2ROW doesn't come to a screeching halt as EB2IC moves forward. After 3 yrs (I believe), it will be a true FIFO.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr3012

As far as dates, there is one aspect of the equation that Sportsfan has not considered. No one country can have more than 25% of visa numbers during the transition period. So that means EB2I will AT MOST get 10K + a share of the spillover. Atleast this is my interpretation of the rules.

Regardless, I'm not quite sure if we will get through the entire current inventory by FY13 because I just don't have confidence in the 2009 and 2010 numbers.

[qesehmk]

Vizcard

Thanks. Great info. This is exactly the kind of info that people need to have better clarity. Otherwise it all just becomes talk / rumour and hypothesis.

With these kind of provisions then it is hard for EB2I to remove backlog immediately. However - to be honest - HR3012 will be a significant forward step for overall immigration.


Those are the transition clauses in HR3012 to make sure that the EB2ROW doesn't come to a screeching halt as EB2IC moves forward. After 3 yrs (I believe), it will be a true FIFO.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr3012

As far as dates, there is one aspect of the equation that Sportsfan has not considered. No one country can have more than 25% of visa numbers during the transition period. So that means EB2I will AT MOST get 10K + a share of the spillover. Atleast this is my interpretation of the rules.

Regardless, I'm not quite sure if we will get through the entire current inventory by FY13 because I just don't have confidence in the 2009 and 2010 numbers.

[Kanmani]

Those are the transition clauses in HR3012 to make sure that the EB2ROW doesn't come to a screeching halt as EB2IC moves forward. After 3 yrs (I believe), it will be a true FIFO.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr3012

As far as dates, there is one aspect of the equation that Sportsfan has not considered. No one country can have more than 25% of visa numbers during the transition period. So that means EB2I will AT MOST get 10K + a share of the spillover. Atleast this is my interpretation of the rules.

Regardless, I'm not quite sure if we will get through the entire current inventory by FY13 because I just don't have confidence in the 2009 and 2010 numbers.

Vizcard,

25% limitation is for ROW countries. After enactment, 85% goes to IC 15% goes to ROW. Out of that 85% IC share no single country can get more than 85% ( again one more 85% so the net is 85% of (85% of 40K)).

Out of the ROW share of 15% no single country can get more than 25%.

[murali83]

Grassley is a dangerous senator too. Usually for non controversial bills, Senate will not dare invoking cloture, because then it becomes a political hot potato, and the general public will turn extremely anti immigrant (as if they are not enough already). However reports are there that Grassley is willing to compromise. I don't know about their accuracy.

In the end, this is still a very clever bill. It has something for both Democrats and Republicans, and members of the Congress may be willing to pass the bill in order to tell their constituents that *something* was done. I don't yet believe the bill is dead. I think by early August, we can pass the judgment.

Well, I think the Star act by Cornyn is even better. Simply because it does not ruffle feathers of eb2-row folks. It just eliminates diversity lottery and gives us 55K visas.

As far as the general public is concerned, they have every reason to fed up with immigration. But someone has to tell them that the mess has been caused by illegal immigrants and the loophole in the birthright citizenship act which has created close to 30 million people in this country (illegals and their kids) in less than 10-15 years.

Every country has a soul and they have every right to protect it. A big population of americans are bound to get frustrated when the 2010 census springs up a nasty surprise that for the first time in centuries, kids with european ancestry born in this country are a minority. (Someone can always argue as to why the majority of the population has to be of european ancestry to maintain the american soul, that is a topic for a different day, but we cannot question the right of people to believe that way. For those of us from India, dont we get frustrated when we see illegal bangladeshi slums in Mumbai or kolkata)

We become the targets of the frustration even though this disturbing statistic is a result of an amnesty in the reagan era and continued growth of the illegal alien population after that. And even in legal immigration, employment based immigration is just a small percentage. But I am afraid that the welcoming nature of the average joe will change because of this mess american politicians have made of border control and immigration enforcement over the decades. In short, they have rewarded illegals and made life difficult for both legal law obeying immigrants and the american citizens.

Hence frankly I dont expect any sensible bills to be passed by this political system which can only keep debating amnesty.

Q, please remove this post if you feel it is going to create a ruckus.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

For 99% of us who are more comfortable with English - here is my explanation of what I understand by HR3012!!

1. It will completely scrap country quota across all categories within Emp Based Categories and raise to 15% in Family Based Categories

2. There will be a 3 year transition period when:
---- a. 15-10-10% will be reserved respectively for year 2012-13-14 for all countries other
---- than top 2 backlogged (i.e. india and China)
---- b. No non-backlogged country will have more than 25% of the "reserved" visas in
------- a year or more than 2% of overall visas.
---- c. Top 2 countries will be limited to 85% of total visas that are "unreserved".

3. China has some special treatment (unfortunately could be unfair) ... but I didn't spend enough time reading it. The wordings are terrible. So I gave up. But may revisit if there is interest.

So all in all - this means practically EB2I will receive 85% of 85% of 40K = 28.8K visas by default in first year + any spillover from EB1 and EB4 and EB5.

Hope that settles this. Other than that there are some nuances that I didn't pay much attention to. Law enthusiasts are welcome to add or modify my interpretation!

[qesehmk]

Murali
First of all - just feel free to express yourself. And as long as all of us do that respectful of others - the moderators - me or others - will never touch any post.

I personally do think that the bill has no chance of happening prior to Nov 2012.

Having said that I do not consider the statistics is "disturbing" if it shows one race / ethnicity increasing and others decreasing (unless there is ethnic cleansing going on)!!

Although the anti immigrations voices are louder - i firmly believe they are still minority. Majority of Americans i believe are pro-immigration and open minded people. At the end of the day - all of us are people and race and ethnicity are quite artificial concepts. I don't know how many of you may have read this fact - it only took 50,000 years for people to become white. In other words , the so called "white" people were not "white" 50,000 years back. In the history of the world - that's 1/3rd of 0.001% of the age of the universe.


Well, I think the Star act by Cornyn is even better. Simply because it does not ruffle feathers of eb2-row folks. It just eliminates diversity lottery and gives us 55K visas.

As far as the general public is concerned, they have every reason to fed up with immigration. But someone has to tell them that the mess has been caused by illegal immigrants and the loophole in the birthright citizenship act which has created close to 30 million people in this country (illegals and their kids) in less than 10-15 years.

Every country has a soul and they have every right to protect it. A big population of americans are bound to get frustrated when the 2010 census springs up a nasty surprise that for the first time in centuries, kids with european ancestry born in this country are a minority. (Someone can always argue as to why the majority of the population has to be of european ancestry to maintain the american soul, that is a topic for a different day, but we cannot question the right of people to believe that way. For those of us from India, dont we get frustrated when we see illegal bangladeshi slums in Mumbai or kolkata)

We become the targets of the frustration even though this disturbing statistic is a result of an amnesty in the reagan era and continued growth of the illegal alien population after that. And even in legal immigration, employment based immigration is just a small percentage. But I am afraid that the welcoming nature of the average joe will change because of this mess american politicians have made of border control and immigration enforcement over the decades. In short, they have rewarded illegals and made life difficult for both legal law obeying immigrants and the american citizens.

Hence frankly I dont expect any sensible bills to be passed by this political system which can only keep debating amnesty.

Q, please remove this post if you feel it is going to create a ruckus.

[vizcard]

Friends,

For 99% of us who are more comfortable with English - here is my explanation of what I understand by HR3012!!

1. It will completely scrap country quota across all categories within Emp Based Categories and raise to 15% in Family Based Categories
2. There will be a 3 year transition period when:
a. 15-10-10% will be reserved respectively for year 2012-13-14 for all countries other
than top 2 backlogged (i.e. india and China)
b. No non-backlogged country will have more than 25% of the "reserved" visas in
a year or more than 2% of overall visas.
c. Top 2 countries will be limited to 85% of total visas that are "unreserved".
3. China has some special treatment (unfortunately could be unfair) ... but I didn't spend enough time reading it. The wordings are terrible. So I gave up. But may revisit if there is interest.

So all in all - this means practically EB2I will receive 85% of 85% of 40K = 28.8K visas by default in first year + any spillover from EB1 and EB4 and EB5.

Hope that settles this. Other than that there are some nuances that I didn't pay much attention to. Law enthusiasts are welcome to add or modify my interpretation!

Q, Kanmani -
Thanks for clarifying. I stand corrected in terms of the 25%. Even a consistent 35K will make a difference to many people.. it means a difference of 4-6 months (over a 25K SOFAD estimate).

[Spectator]

Friends,

For 99% of us who are more comfortable with English - here is my explanation of what I understand by HR3012!!

1. It will completely scrap country quota across all categories within Emp Based Categories and raise to 15% in Family Based Categories

2. There will be a 3 year transition period when:
---- a. 15-10-10% will be reserved respectively for year 2012-13-14 for all countries other
---- than top 2 backlogged (i.e. india and China)
---- b. No non-backlogged country will have more than 25% of the "reserved" visas in
------- a year or more than 2% of overall visas.
---- c. Top 2 countries will be limited to 85% of total visas that are "unreserved".

3. China has some special treatment (unfortunately could be unfair) ... but I didn't spend enough time reading it. The wordings are terrible. So I gave up. But may revisit if there is interest.

So all in all - this means practically EB2I will receive 85% of 85% of 40K = 28.8K visas by default in first year + any spillover from EB1 and EB4 and EB5.

Hope that settles this. Other than that there are some nuances that I didn't pay much attention to. Law enthusiasts are welcome to add or modify my interpretation!Q,

That is a nice summary.

A couple of additional points:

a) The Chinese treatment you mention removes the provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act, which means China's allocation is currently reduced by 700 (to zero) in EB5 and by 300 (to 2,503) in EB3. Personally, I believe this is the right thing to do.

b) The Bill says that the Reserved/Unreserved split is applicable to all immigrant visas made available section 203(b). That includes any spillover from EB1/EB4/EB5 as well. Practically, if 10k spillover from EB1/EB4/EB5 was available, 1.5k would be made available to EB2-non IC and 8.5k to EB2IC in Year 1 and so on.

[murali83]

Murali
First of all - just feel free to express yourself. And as long as all of us do that respectful of others - the moderators - me or others - will never touch any post.

I personally do think that the bill has no chance of happening prior to Nov 2012.

Having said that I do not consider the statistics is "disturbing" if it shows one race / ethnicity increasing and others decreasing (unless there is ethnic cleansing going on)!!

Although the anti immigrations voices are louder - i firmly believe they are still minority. Majority of Americans i believe are pro-immigration and open minded people. At the end of the day - all of us are people and race and ethnicity are quite artificial concepts. I don't know how many of you may have read this fact - it only took 50,000 years for people to become white. In other words , the so called "white" people were not "white" 50,000 years back. In the history of the world - that's 1/3rd of 0.001% of the age of the universe.

Thanks Q,

We'll continue this debate some other day.

[qesehmk]

Spec - Thanks for explaining. This completes the understanding. I do agree both things you mention are the right things to do.


Q,

That is a nice summary.

A couple of additional points:

a) The Chinese treatment you mention removes the provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act, which means China's allocation is currently reduced by 700 (to zero) in EB5 and by 300 (to 2,503) in EB3. Personally, I believe this is the right thing to do.

b) The Bill says that the Reserved/Unreserved split is applicable to all immigrant visas made available section 203(b). That includes any spillover from EB1/EB4/EB5 as well. Practically, if 10k spillover from EB1/EB4/EB5 was available, 1.5k would be made available to EB2-non IC and 8.5k to EB2IC in Year 1 and so on.