WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[idliman]

Hi Folks,
I have approved I-140 in EB2 & 3 with priority date in July end 2010.
I am a premium subscriber of WhereisMyGC and per that my estimated date for EB3 is Average - Jul 2020 and Pessimistic is Sept 2020.

1. Do these dates make sense? When I read the posts on this thread, I get a completely different picture. People are talking about it is going to take 4-5 years just to clear 2009 and all that. Then how come the 'whereismyGC' dates are so optimistic? Should I base my decision based on those dates?

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).

[excalibur123]

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).


I am Nov 09 too - good to know you idliman.

[optimista]

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).

Got that. Thanks a lot. And I really appreciate your opinion, even if it is not indicating any good news. So for I have burned my fingers every time by taking dose after dose of Hopium and it has never resulted in anything good for me and my family. So I would rather take a bitter dose of reality. Thx.

[whereismygc]

Since there has been talk about WhereismyGC forecast - we would like to urge folks to not reveal premium forecast.

The forecast is based on numbers and data. In addition to 485 data it also includes consular processing numbers. It also allows us to model migrations from one category to another. Thus the forecast view is quite comprehensive in nature. Additionally it does have different kinds of parameters that we set regarding 485 processing times or denial rates etc ... just to name a few.

We just want you to understand that the forecast is quite scientific and is no hopium.

However over years, DoS/USCIS have certainly found ways to always find the next pocket of ROW demand and have fulfilled that demand over chronic EB-India backlog. That is our biggest dark horse.

Hope this helps.

[whereismygc]

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[optimista]

Since there has been talk about WhereismyGC forecast - we would like to urge folks to not reveal premium forecast.

The forecast is based on numbers and data. In addition to 485 data it also includes consular processing numbers. It also allows us to model migrations from one category to another. Thus the forecast view is quite comprehensive in nature. Additionally it does have different kinds of parameters that we set regarding 485 processing times or denial rates etc ... just to name a few.

We just want you to understand that the forecast is quite scientific and is no hopium.

However over years, DoS/USCIS have certainly found ways to always find the next pocket of ROW demand and have fulfilled that demand over chronic EB-India backlog. That is our biggest dark horse.

Hope this helps.

Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

[iatiam]

Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

Optimista,

I can feel your pain. Of all the pain inflicted by immigration, aging out of kids is the worst and I don't wish it on my worst enemies. All I can say is, hang in there. No one - prediction websites or even government agencies - have enough useful data to predict the future movement. Always take these predictions with a huge bag of salt.

However, what we know for sure is that there is some incremental change in EB allocation because of FB visas and if we are lucky, some more horizontal SO. Next year is election year and typically tumultuous year for economy, markets and immigration. Who knows, we might all be collectively lucky next year.

On your side, do what is needed to be done. Like someone said, EB3I CP cases are very high and there is no indication that it is slowing down. So from your side, you can start efforts to port to EB2 and keep both I-140s ready. You already have Canada as plan B and may be you can even talk to your manager to see if you can move to Canada for an year and then move back and file in EB1C.

Iatiam

[optimista]

Hi @Iatiam,

Thank you so much for the kind words of support. Means a lot to me. I wish you and your family the best too. FYI - I do have a application in both EB2 and EB3 (started in EB3 and then filed EB2 as well). Mostly I am thinking of moving to Canada to ensure me and my family have at least some future in North America if dates here in US keep moving at snails pace. I do not think my current employer can support me in Canada. I will have to reboot and reinstall myself in Canada which is going to be another pain. In any case, if I move there, I plan to move one of the applications to CP just in case and would also hunt for employment which can move me back to US on EB1C, but its a long and unreliable shot though (what if EB1C application does not go through). I never thought, better part of my life would be wasted in waiting for immigration to resolve, but its unfortunate that we all have to go through this.

Anyways, let's hope for the best. Cheers :-).

[whereismygc]

Hello Optimista,

No misunderstandings. Your suggestions are welcome. We do keep reviewing and adjusting the model. And it has worked quite well.

We have a money back guarantee if we forecast you to get a GC in current year and you do not get it. So far nobody has availed it.

We do not give guarantee beyond current USCIS year because immigration forecasting starts becoming very volatile after one year. The volatility is systemic and there is not much we can do about it.

We don't pretend to know precise information. It simply does not exist. Our EB 2/3 India forecast is reasonably accurate in a year and decently accurate over 2-4 years and only directionally accurate anything beyond that. For any other categories and countries without acute backlogs, the accuracy is much higher even for longer term.

Hope this helps. Please feel free to challenge us and / or send suggestions via this thread or email or private messaging.


Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

[iatiam]

Hello Optimista,

No misunderstandings. Your suggestions are welcome. We do keep reviewing and adjusting the model. And it has worked quite well.

We have a money back guarantee if we forecast you to get a GC in current year and you do not get it. So far nobody has availed it.

We do not give guarantee beyond current USCIS year because immigration forecasting starts becoming very volatile after one year. The volatility is systemic and there is not much we can do about it.

We don't pretend to know precise information. It simply does not exist. Our EB 2/3 India forecast is reasonably accurate in a year and decently accurate over 2-4 years and only directionally accurate anything beyond that. For any other categories and countries without acute backlogs, the accuracy is much higher even for longer term.

Hope this helps. Please feel free to challenge us and / or send suggestions via this thread or email or private messaging.

This conversation is between Optimista and WhereismyGC so apologies for chiming in.

Just where do you get this data for forecasting? CP numbers are available and you said you are using it. I get it. But 485 data? People like Spec have regularly challenged the accuracy of 485 inventory data and even for that, we don't have any thing since EB3I started moving forward. So how do you claim so confidently that scientific?

For all the fancy models and algorithms, all predictions have to pass the smell test.

Iatiam

[whereismygc]

This conversation is between Optimista and WhereismyGC so apologies for chiming in.

Just where do you get this data for forecasting? CP numbers are available and you said you are using it. I get it. But 485 data? People like Spec have regularly challenged the accuracy of 485 inventory data and even for that, we don't have any thing since EB3I started moving forward. So how do you claim so confidently that scientific?

For all the fancy models and algorithms, all predictions have to pass the smell test.

Iatiam

No worries at all. It was easy when 485 inventory used to be published. As it no longer gets published we have to infer 485 numbers from other available data. That's about as much as we can reveal.

As per your questions about our model and how it is scientific please refer to our FAQs. Our smell test is our prediction itself. For a few bucks you can smell it and see if it stinks yourself. There is money back guarantee for those who we predict will receive GC current USCIS year and do not get it.

[whereismygc]

Forecast updated.

[whereismygc]

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On Monday Feb 17th we will make our Day plan available and give it away FREE to increase cancer awareness.

All we ask is you donate a dollar to any cancer charity, or just hug somebody you know affected by cancer.

[4WatItsWorth]

Most of us know somebody affected by cancer.

On Monday Feb 17th we will make our Day plan available and give it away FREE to increase cancer awareness.

All we ask is you donate a dollar to any cancer charity, or just hug somebody you know affected by cancer.
Where is the link to the day plan? I can only see Basic, Semi-Annual and Year plans here - https://www.whereismygc.com/pricing.php.

[whereismygc]

Where is the link to the day plan? I can only see Basic, Semi-Annual and Year plans here - https://www.whereismygc.com/pricing.php.
It is available now. Please check again.

[4WatItsWorth]

It is available now. Please check again.Thanks but now getting, “Sorry, we do not accept yahoo email addresses..” I am getting a feeling that it is a prank of some sort.

[whereismygc]

Thanks but now getting, “Sorry, we do not accept yahoo email addresses..” I am getting a feeling that it is a prank of some sort.

We actually do not accept Yahoo address.

[paramjit74]

I just now checked the whereismygc forecast for my date. It says that there are about 7500 people ahead of me but the pessimistic forecast for my date is Sep 2020. I am confused because in the pessimistic case we should get 2800 each year to EB2I which means it should take about 3 years.

[4WatItsWorth]

We actually do not accept Yahoo address.It does not let me enter anything else in those text boxes. My yahoo email address is 'stuck' in there. Clicking Next clears them but it still does not let me enter anything. You guys may / may not be running a good forecast but, unfortunately, I found the user experience frustrating. Yahoo! email has ~250 million users, BTW.

[whereismygc]

It does not let me enter anything else in those text boxes. My yahoo email address is 'stuck' in there. Clicking Next clears them but it still does not let me enter anything. You guys may / may not be running a good forecast but, unfortunately, I found the user experience frustrating. Yahoo! email has ~250 million users, BTW.

Sorry for the troubles. But Yahoo has given us significant headache in terms of mail delivery. We can update your email in the system. Just send us an email at help at WhereismyGC. Or else simply create a new account.

[EB22010Dec]

I just now checked the whereismygc forecast for my date. It says that there are about 7500 people ahead of me but the pessimistic forecast for my date is Sep 2020. I am confused because in the pessimistic case we should get 2800 each year to EB2I which means it should take about 3 years.

I have screenshots of forecasts for few quarters now.
You all can see my PD from my handle, the people before me in the backlog used to be 35k, then it came down to 27k and now it went up to 55k.
I am sure there is logic behind this, but no clarity has ever been provided into any of the metrics in the site; even when I paid 'real' money for this service.

[whereismygc]

I have screenshots of forecasts for few quarters now.
You all can see my PD from my handle, the people before me in the backlog used to be 35k, then it came down to 27k and now it went up to 55k.
I am sure there is logic behind this, but no clarity has ever been provided into any of the metrics in the site; even when I paid 'real' money for this service.
Of course there is logic behind. This is not rocket science. This is estimated demand. The demand keeps changing as people get approved. However recently we made a significant upward revision of our estimate. This was necessary after realizing that EB2-I dates have pretty much stagnated in 2009 indicating pretty dense demand. We did send out an email when we had made the last update. We can't explain our methods and sources. But suffice to say we try to build a demand picture consistent with the pace with which people are being approved.

[EB22010Dec]

Of course there is logic behind. This is not rocket science. This is estimated demand. The demand keeps changing as people get approved. However recently we made a significant upward revision of our estimate. This was necessary after realizing that EB2-I dates have pretty much stagnated in 2009 indicating pretty dense demand. We did send out an email when we had made the last update. We can't explain our methods and sources. But suffice to say we try to build a demand picture consistent with the pace with which people are being approved.

It would have been good to see last few years spillovers and how they tracked to your predictions. Just to make it as transparent as possible.

[whereismygc]

It would have been good to see last few years spillovers and how they tracked to your predictions. Just to make it as transparent as possible.
Thank you for the suggestion. We will consider it. We can only build it going forward. It will be nice if a few people put forth clear picture of what will help them.

Forecasting is difficult art, but happy to hold the feet to the fire. Few years back we were the first to forecast that EB3-I will catch with EB2-I. That has already come true.

[jimmys]

I don't think your EB-3 India predictions are correct. Can you check it?

[whereismygc]

I don't think your EB-3 India predictions are correct. Can you check it?
Our algorithms predict for all countries all categories and all dates. So it is practically impossible to cater to such requests.

If you think they are wrong, you are welcome to share your prediction on this blog and help others.

All we ask of you is to not disclose our prediction or our data.

[EB22010Dec]

Thank you for the suggestion. We will consider it. We can only build it going forward. It will be nice if a few people put forth clear picture of what will help them.

Forecasting is difficult art, but happy to hold the feet to the fire. A few years back we were the first to forecast that EB3-I will catch with EB2-I. That has already come true.


As I said earlier I have screenshots from last few quarters, below are the numbers according to them.

2019 -xx k
2020 - xx k

Did we get xx k in 2019 to Eb2. That is the question we should be answering and publishing results about to know the accuracy of the forecast.
Please note that my intention is not to find fault with your forecast, but use statistics and history to become more confident about it.

[whereismygc]

We will know what EB2-I got in 2019 after DoS publishes annual visa consumption report for 2019.

Please do not disclose our data on public blog. You are welcome to send an email.


As I said earlier I have screenshots from last few quarters, below are the numbers according to them.

2019 -xx k
2020 - xx k

Did we get xx k in 2019 to Eb2. That is the question we should be answering and publishing results about to know the accuracy of the forecast.
Please note that my intention is not to find fault with your forecast, but use statistics and history to become more confident about it.

[EB22010Dec]

We will know what EB2-I got in 2019 after DoS publishes annual visa consumption report for 2019.

Please do not disclose our data on public blog. You are welcome to send an email.

Will do thank you.

[EB22010Dec]

Will do thank you.

So with Specs newly published posts can you calculate 2019 now?

[whereismygc]

So with Specs newly published posts can you calculate 2019 now?
Yes. Please send us by email your screenshot from last year.

[EB22010Dec]

Yes. Please send us by email your screenshot from last year.

Can you please give us the email I should send to.

[whereismygc]

Can you please give us the email I should send to.
The email is : help at whereismygc
Alternatively just send a private message to this profile.

[EB22010Dec]

The email is : help at whereismygc
Alternatively just send a private message to this profile.

Sent an email. I could not attach files to Private messages.

[whereismygc]

Sent an email. I could not attach files to Private messages.

This is now reported in another thread. Please check.

[whereismygc]

Today we have also fixed a flaw in one of our settings that was affecting EB3-India users. The setting in our counselor processing data was artificially keeping EB3-I dates back. We have fixed this flaw. You can view the correct forecast now by logging into your account.

[jimmys]

I don't think your EB-3 India predictions are correct. Can you check it?


Our algorithms predict for all countries all categories and all dates. So it is practically impossible to cater to such requests.

If you think they are wrong, you are welcome to share your prediction on this blog and help others.

All we ask of you is to not disclose our prediction or our data.


Today we have also fixed a flaw in one of our settings that was affecting EB3-India users. The setting in our counselor processing data was artificially keeping EB3-I dates back. We have fixed this flaw. You can view the correct forecast now by logging into your account.

I pointed out the flaw a few days ago. Instead of looking what's wrong in your EB3-India calculations, you started preaching that I can post my predictions as if I'm trying to hobble up your business. SMH!

[whereismygc]

Your initial suggestion was too vague. So we said we can't respond to your request.
When you sent a private message with specifics, we acknowledged and promised to fix. We fixed it in a day.
Then we thanked you and offered you a free month.

How else do you expect us to respond? If you describe a problem we can and will act on it.



I pointed out the flaw a few days ago. Instead of looking what's wrong in your EB3-India calculations, you started preaching that I can post my predictions as if I'm trying to hobble up your business. SMH!

[jimmys]

Your initial suggestion was too vague. So we said we can't respond to your request.
When you sent a private message with specifics, we acknowledged and promised to fix. We fixed it in a day.
Then we thanked you and offered you a free month.

How else do you expect us to respond? If you describe a problem we can and will act on it.

Oops! I just saw your personal messages.

[whereismygc]

Oops! I just saw your personal messages.
Perhaps good idea to check 3 gates of speech !!
Is it true? Is it kind? Does it improve silence?

Thanks for the suggestion again and you have your FREE month. Check your mailbox.

[4WatItsWorth]

Most people did not have a problem but some people with EB3-I prediction were affected.
The promotion obviously was a courtesy not a right. However we will be happy to offer another promotion to raise cancer awareness.

For next 1 week.
You donate month or year plan worth money to ANY cancer charity you choose.
Send us a receipt and we will give you equal value in subscription. I love it and donated today because the subject came up. How do I send you the receipt? One one hand, I don’t mind it as because of the discussion, I got off my lazy behind and did something good I guess, while on the other hand, I feel that as a business you cannot dictate the terms for offering what in my mind is - a fair business practice.

[whereismygc]

I love it and donated today because the subject came up. How do I send you the receipt? One one hand, I don’t mind it as because of the discussion, I got off my lazy behind and did something good I guess, while on the other hand, I feel that as a business you cannot dictate the terms for offering what in my mind is - a fair business practice.
Awesome.

Please post it right here if you are comfortable. Or send us via email sales at whereismygc or help at whereismygc

[jimmys]

Perhaps good idea to check 3 gates of speech !!
Is it true? Is it kind? Does it improve silence?

Thanks for the suggestion again and you have your FREE month. Check your mailbox.

Took a note. Thank you!

[whereismygc]

Took a note. Thank you!

You are welcome. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have a problem or a question.

[jimmys]

You are welcome. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have a problem or a question.

FY 2019 DoS stats and FY 2020 first quarter CP numbers are already baked in the prediction. Is my understanding correct?

[whereismygc]

FY 2019 DoS stats and FY 2020 first quarter CP numbers are already baked in the prediction. Is my understanding correct?
The CP are fully baked in. The 2019 DoS stats are baked in at a holistic level. But we always keep looking for nuggets we can find. If we do find any nuggets we will tweak the model.

[jimmys]

The CP are fully baked in. The 2019 DoS stats are baked in at a holistic level. But we always keep looking for nuggets we can find. If we do find any nuggets we will tweak the model.

Thank you!

[whereismygc]

Somebody asked "What Impact COVID virus (lockdown) will have on date movements".

We are going to predict but will not adjust our current forecast model.

CP issuances are not usually front or back loaded. In other words throughout year the visas are issued in regular manner. COVID situation can halt those issuances temporarily in countries heavily affected. As of now India China Italy certainly can be assumed to be issuing no visas. If the situation persists another 2 months, it will be impossible for DoS to work extra to capture those unused visas and we may see some spillover.

However it is difficult to predict that as of today.

[jimmys]

There are also USCIS office closures, ASC closures,and interview cancellations for AOS applications. These issues may persist for 3-4 weeks (or more). I don't think USCIS will put in extra effort to compensate the lost time. But, this is too early to predict the exact impact.

[whereismygc]

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[whereismygc]

WhereismyGC's Self Service Forecast tool is built to allow users model their own scenarios.

The current immigration pause has created a potential opportunity for backlogged candidates in Employment category in two different ways.

A) Consulates stopped processing EB1/2/3/4 categories. (Pl note EB5 is not affected). - Max visa spillover 1831 per month within EB for current year.
B) Consulates stopped processing all FB categories. - Max visa spillover 16008 per month to EB for next FY.

If you are an AOS candidate, here is how you can model this scenario in WhereismyGC. (please note this will not work for counselor processing cases).


Login to www.whereismygc.com
Click on iForecast on your Dashboard
Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2020 write 162963. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and adding technical* allocation of 6463 to annual quota)
Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2021 write 175099. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and then reducing the 2021 number by the 2020 artificial technical allocation of 6463)
Hit Submit


Please note that as Q said earlier this month, the numbers will be there if the pause continues. But allocating those numbers for backlogged candidates lawfully is a policy decision. Nobody can predict how the administration will choose to use the extra visas. Thus treat these predictions as best case scenario.

Good luck to all.


Update 1 - The 2021 number adjusted by the technical over-allocation done in 2020 in order to simulate the AOS backlog reduction.

[jimmys]

Thanks for the update! Now we're eagerly waiting for a discount code:)

[whereismygc]

Thanks for the update! Now we're eagerly waiting for a discount code:)
Here is a 10% promo code available to the users of this blog - QSBLOG

[jimmys]

Here is a 10% promo code available to the users of this blog - QSBLOG

Thank you!

[whereismygc]

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

[jimmys]

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

Point taken.

[Zenzone]

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

This is based on just a 60 day suspension and no extensions of it, right?

[whereismygc]

This is based on just a 60 day suspension and no extensions of it, right?

Here we laid out our thought process.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=64051&viewfull=1#post64051

[Zenzone]

Here we laid out our thought process.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=64051&viewfull=1#post64051

Just signed up sir

[whereismygc]

Just signed up sir

Thank you Sir. If you have any problems please raise them here or via email.

[Zenzone]

Thank you Sir. If you have any problems please raise them here or via email.

I plugged in your suggested updated numbers for 2020 and 2021 overall EB availability to account for a potential (fingers crossed) FB SO. It gave a better result for sure :) I also assume your model doesn't account for potential Eb2 to Eb3 downgrades if dates move in a non-linear fashion in the near-term. Right?

[whereismygc]

I plugged in your suggested updated numbers for 2020 and 2021 overall EB availability to account for a potential (fingers crossed) FB SO. It gave a better result for sure :) I also assume your model doesn't account for potential Eb2 to Eb3 downgrades if dates move in a non-linear fashion in the near-term. Right?

Yes they will certainly produce good results if the administration / agencies don't pull some funny tricks.

As per EB down/up grades -- we no longer consider that a serious consideration. We had predicted EB3I downgrades 3/4 years back. Since then EB3I has achieved parity with EB2I

[Zenzone]

Yes they will certainly produce good results if the administration / agencies don't pull some funny tricks.

As per EB down/up grades -- we no longer consider that a serious consideration. We had predicted EB3I downgrades 3/4 years back. Since then EB3I has achieved parity with EB2I

Got it. So the expectation is that they move in more or less similar parity without leap frogging too much ahead of each other.

[whereismygc]

Got it. So the expectation is that they move in more or less similar parity without leap frogging too much ahead of each other.

Yes for now it certainly looks like that. There could be ebbs and flows e.g. EB3-Nurses from Philippines esp during COVID might upset EB3-I movement. But at this time there is no evidence of that.

[whereismygc]

We see more and more people signing up. We welcome all. Here are some key things to remember.

1) Please feel free to raise any questions here. This way others too can benefit.

2) If you see any error - please raise it - it only helps us improve it for everybody.

3) While we do publish our own take on EB forecast, please do use the tool to create your own forecast too.

Good luck and god speed to your GC and freedom.

[suninphx]

When I entered the revised numbers for Fy2020 and Fy2021 and clicked on submit, I was redirected to the dashboard and didn't see any date estimate. Is this just me?

[whereismygc]

When I entered the revised numbers for Fy2020 and Fy2021 and clicked on submit, I was redirected to the dashboard and didn't see any date estimate. Is this just me?

That is not normal behavior. Lets see if others are experiencing the same.

Normally user stays on the same page. If the subscription is active, user sees the forecast using the inputted numbers. If the subscription is not active, the user sees "Please subscribe to view" message.

Meanwhile can you please try again and send us some screenshots by email. We will try to solve this for you.

[suninphx]

You are right I land on this page --> "Please subscribe to view".

Didn't realize iForecast needs a paid subscription as well. My bad.

Thanks for the response.

[whereismygc]

No worries. Thanks.
You are right I land on this page --> "Please subscribe to view".

Didn't realize iForecast needs a paid subscription as well. My bad.

Thanks for the response.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

WhereismyGC's Self Service Forecast tool is built to allow users model their own scenarios.

The current immigration pause has created a potential opportunity for backlogged candidates in Employment category in two different ways.

A) Consulates stopped processing EB1/2/3/4 categories. (Pl note EB5 is not affected). - Max visa spillover 1831 per month within EB for current year.
B) Consulates stopped processing all FB categories. - Max visa spillover 16008 per month to EB for next FY.

If you are an AOS candidate, here is how you can model this scenario in WhereismyGC. (please note this will not work for counselor processing cases).


Login to www.whereismygc.com
Click on iForecast on your Dashboard
Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2020 write 162963. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and adding technical* allocation of 6463 to annual quota)
Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2021 write 175099. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and then reducing the 2021 number by the 2020 artificial technical allocation of 6463)
Hit Submit


Please note that as Q said earlier this month, the numbers will be there if the pause continues. But allocating those numbers for backlogged candidates lawfully is a policy decision. Nobody can predict how the administration will choose to use the extra visas. Thus treat these predictions as best case scenario.

Good luck to all.


Update 1 - The 2021 number adjusted by the technical over-allocation done in 2020 in order to simulate the AOS backlog reduction.


Can you please point me to a prior post (maybe from Spec?) that explains how the spillover system is setup to work? I don't quite understand why the available 2020 EB visas would increase from the allotted annual number of 140,000 to 156,500. I see 156,500 visas as the default option in the iForecast module.

Also, what is the basis for adding an additional 6,463 "technical" visas to the 2020 allotted annual number? What are these? Again, I ask because I am simply behind the curve on this topic.

My PD is July 7, 2009, and I am just hoping to be able to file I-485 this October.

Cheers!

[whereismygc]

Can you please point me to a prior post (maybe from Spec?) that explains how the spillover system is setup to work? I don't quite understand why the available 2020 EB visas would increase from the allotted annual number of 140,000 to 156,500. I see 156,500 visas as the default option in the iForecast module.

Also, what is the basis for adding an additional 6,463 "technical" visas to the 2020 allotted annual number? What are these? Again, I ask because I am simply behind the curve on this topic.

My PD is July 7, 2009, and I am just hoping to be able to file I-485 this October.

Cheers!
The usual EB quota is indeed 140K. For 2020 it is 156,500. You can find it in the latest visa bulletin. The spillover goes from EB4/5 to EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3.
We have explained the origin of the technical allocation above as well as a rough way to think about it. But of course there are finer ways to arrive at a realistic number and we would like to keep it a trade secret.
Hope this helps.

[whereismygc]

The June visa bulletin is out.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-june-2020.html

It does show the impact of CP shutdowns in consulates abroad. Across the board we see movement. But it is more pronounced for EB1-India that moved almost an entire year due to the extra visas available in EB1 as well as potential spillover from EB4/5. EB3-India has bigger movement compared to EB2-India because EB3-I has relatively more number of people seeking GC via CP rather than AOS.

Overall a positive bulletin - not quite satisfactory for EB2-India though.

[whereismygc]

We have updated the forecast model at www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) with the following changes.

1) EB1 India demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
2) EB3 ROW demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
3) Covid consular processing halt (moderate positive impact in 2020, significant impact in 2021) (please see this post for detailed discussion (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=64051&viewfull=1#post64051)). Now we feel confident that the numbers are there to be applied to we updated that directly in our model.

Finally, EB3 Mexico Vietnam Philippines dates are retrogressed. We think there is some funny business going on there. There is no way EB3 Mexico has enough EB demand to be retrogressed. So we don't want to make any forecast for those categories.

[jimmys]

Has the latest bulletin been included in whereismygc forecast?

[whereismygc]

Has the latest bulletin been included in whereismygc forecast?
The bulletin has moved generally in line with our predictions. We expect more movement. As long as USCIS does not shut down/furlough, we believe there will be more movement.

[Zenzone]

Are we updating the model to reflect the current extension of the ban until 12/31? If yes, when can we expect it? Thanks.

[whereismygc]

Are we updating the model to reflect the current extension of the ban until 12/31? If yes, when can we expect it? Thanks.

The latest work visa restrictions won't have any immediate impact on GC forecast. But if the consulates remain closed through Sep then we may be updating the model with additional 3 months of extra data. That could be huge not just this year but also next year.

[Zenzone]

The latest work visa restrictions won't have any immediate impact on GC forecast. But if the consulates remain closed through Sep then we may be updating the model with additional 3 months of extra data. That could be huge not just this year but also next year.

I thought the ban on FB GCs processed through consulates are also extended until 12/31. Here is the excerpt from yesterday's proclamation. It clearly says the EO - 10014 (April EO) is extended and expanded now with the addition of non-immigrant visas. Together this ban is extended till 12/31/20 subjected to review every 30 to 60 days until then -

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of Proclamation 10014, except as provided in section 2 of Proclamation 10014, and persons described in section 2 of this proclamation, except as provided for in section 3 of this proclamation, would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions.

[whereismygc]

I thought the ban on FB GCs processed through consulates are also extended until 12/31. Here is the excerpt from yesterday's proclamation. It clearly says the EO - 10014 (April EO) is extended and expanded now with the addition of non-immigrant visas. Together this ban is extended till 12/31/20 subjected to review every 30 to 60 days until then -

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of Proclamation 10014, except as provided in section 2 of Proclamation 10014, and persons described in section 2 of this proclamation, except as provided for in section 3 of this proclamation, would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions.

We will go through the EO carefully and determine if this warrants extension from GC point of view. Thank you.

[whereismygc]

We did look at the new Trump Executive Order (the second EO). It will have positive impact on backlogged EB candidates should the administration choose to apply the extra numbers to the backlog.

The visa services were affected since Mar 20, 2020. The first proclamation came into effect on Apr 22, 2020. Thus the first period is approximately 3 months. The second proclamation came into effect on June 22 and will be in effect through Dec 2020 giving a total 6.25 months of USCIS fiscal year 2020 impact.

We have baked 3 months into our forecast. But will only provide you guidance on the total 6.25 months just to stay conservative and pragmatic. Additionally, the extension of immigration pause into fiscal 2021 does create the possibility of FB->EB spillover in 2022. But we are going to ignore that too and keep it simple and conservative.

Here are two scenarios. Adjust the 2020 and 2021 visa availability in WhereismyGC as follows:

The first as we said is baked into the forecast. The second is what you can try on your own.

Simulation 1 - Effect of 3 month pause on immigration. (already baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 162,963
2021 visa availability - 181,562

Simulation 2 - Effect of 6.25 month pause on immigration. (NOT baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 169,965
2021 visa availability - 226,587

[EB32010]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

[Zenzone]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

Not sure if I follow your question. Whats the basis of your 156K maximum??

[whereismygc]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

Excellent question. Indeed the max this year is about 156K. So in reality that's how much will be allocated. But our algorithms have no way to stop CP allocation as of now. So in order to get around that limitation we have to top off the current annual quota with spillover quota. Accordingly we have also adjusted the next year's number to simulate a realistic allocation.

Hope this answers your questions.

[EB32010]

Not sure if I follow your question. Whats the basis of your 156K maximum??
140k (this years allocation) + 16k (from FB last year).

[EB32010]

Excellent question. Indeed the max this year is about 156K. So in reality that's how much will be allocated. But our algorithms have no way to stop CP allocation as of now. So in order to get around that limitation we have to top off the current annual quota with spillover quota. Accordingly we have also adjusted the next year's number to simulate a realistic allocation.

Hope this answers your questions.
It did. Thank you.

[bodhi2000]

We did look at the new Trump Executive Order (the second EO). It will have positive impact on backlogged EB candidates should the administration choose to apply the extra numbers to the backlog.

The visa services were affected since Mar 20, 2020. The first proclamation came into effect on Apr 22, 2020. Thus the first period is approximately 3 months. The second proclamation came into effect on June 22 and will be in effect through Dec 2020 giving a total 6.25 months of USCIS fiscal year 2020 impact.

We have baked 3 months into our forecast. But will only provide you guidance on the total 6.25 months just to stay conservative and pragmatic. Additionally, the extension of immigration pause into fiscal 2021 does create the possibility of FB->EB spillover in 2022. But we are going to ignore that too and keep it simple and conservative.

Here are two scenarios. Adjust the 2020 and 2021 visa availability in WhereismyGC as follows:

The first as we said is baked into the forecast. The second is what you can try on your own.

Simulation 1 - Effect of 3 month pause on immigration. (already baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 162,963
2021 visa availability - 181,562

Simulation 2 - Effect of 6.25 month pause on immigration. (NOT baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 169,965
2021 visa availability - 226,587

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.

[whereismygc]

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.
This is a good question. The answer unfortunately is as of now our algorithms can't stop CP demand. We never really envisioned the entire consulate shutoffs worldwide. So we invented a workaround to increase supply just enough. Any spillover one must understand goes to various different categories which most are backlogged. So the share coming to EB-I will be less anyway at least this year.

Our guess is for people with dates in 2010 there will be marked improvement.

If we figure out even better way to simulate , we will let you all know.

[whereismygc]

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.

Here is a bit more nuanced answer.

EB3 is retrogressed across all countries vs EB2 which is only retrogressed across India and China.

Since any extra CP visas must be consumed within retrogressed countries first (and within the country limit) they may not be available for other countries to use.

That's why comparatively EB3 will see modest movement this year compared to EB1 or EB2. Next year will bring significant movement across all categories.

[bodhi2000]

Here is a bit more nuanced answer.

EB3 is retrogressed across all countries vs EB2 which is only retrogressed across India and China.

Since any extra CP visas must be consumed within retrogressed countries first (and within the country limit) they may not be available for other countries to use.

That's why comparatively EB3 will see modest movement this year compared to EB1 or EB2. Next year will bring significant movement across all categories.

Yes, I get that. However I fall under EB2 and the predicted date for EB2 seems a little out off. But then i am no expert! Hoping for the best. Thanks

[whereismygc]

Yes, I get that. However I fall under EB2 and the predicted date for EB2 seems a little out off. But then i am no expert! Hoping for the best. Thanks

Send us an email in case you have further questions.

[whereismygc]

Happy 4th of July to all.

Take 20% off on all plans at www.whereismygc.com

Available today only.

[whereismygc]

A deal has been reached between Senator Durbin and Senator Lee on S386.

Here is a summary. You can read details at Greg Siskind's Blog (https://www.visalaw.com/siskind-summary-s-386-fairness-high-skilled-immigrants-act-2020-852020/).

We will do a major rehaul to WhereismyGC if this bill passes. Stay tuned!

Summary

Visa caps will be removed from Emp Based Categories from USCIS year 2022 onwards (i.e. Oct 2021 onwards)
Children will be protected as long as the 485 was filed before they turned 21
All EB applicants can file 485, 2 years after they have an approved 140.
Other miscellaneous provisions to tackle H1B abuse.


We think this is a great compromise with a very good chance to pass.

Good luck to all.

[whereismygc]

It almost passed having both co-sponsors agreeing to it. But one of the GOP senators objected and thus killed it for now.

[whereismygc]

Dear All,

Before October we will be introducing recurring monthly and recurring annual subscriptions.

The new plans will be priced at $7.95 per month and $74.95 per year. There will be no contracts.

All existing customers will be able to move to new plans and be eligible for a prorated refund on old plans.

We just want to do our bit to help during these challenging times. These are exciting times as well since potentially over 100K new visas might be available next year.

Stay tuned and god speed to your freedom.

www.whereismygc.com

Expected date for the new plans to be available - Sep 30th, 2020.

We will update this post if there are changes. Apologies for the delay.

[whereismygc]

Since in 2021 we expect 240K EB visas, people have been asking how that will affect their own chances. Please see the steps below.

1. Log in to www.whereismygc.com
2. On your dashboard click on iForecast
3. You will arrive at "iForecast (Self Service Green Card Forecast)" screen. There under "Available visas for 2021", enter 240000.
4. Click submit. It will let you know what difference it can make for your own PD.

[whereismygc]

The DoS has published the Oct 2020 VB (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-october-2020.html).

It is important to note that in light of the anticipated 100K extra visas available for EB this year. the DOS seems to be in a mode to build inventory. They are allowing people to file 485 as far as following dates.



485 filing dates

India
China


EB1
Sep 20
Sep 20


EB2
May 11
Oct 16


EB3
Jan 15
Jun 18


EB5
C
Dec 15



Chinese EB5 hasn't moved much, thus indicating very solid EB5 demand from China.

Congratulation for those able to file 485.

p.s. - It is reasonable to believe that we might see filing dates moving even further to generate more demand/backlog to be processed. We imagine that DoS might move them further once they know the real magnitude of EB demand as well as spillover from last year.

[bookworm]

There is no change in iforecast even after i enter the 240000 (or 256000) Available EB visa data. However changing the number by 10X up or down does generate a change in the iforecast. Am i making a mistake in my inputs?

The graph shows a steady allocation of 461 visa each month till August. Is this due to the assumption that spillover will be applied in Aug & Sept only?

[whereismygc]

There is no change in iforecast even after i enter the 240000 (or 256000) Available EB visa data. However changing the number by 10X up or down does generate a change in the iforecast. Am i making a mistake in my inputs?

The graph shows a steady allocation of 461 visa each month till August. Is this due to the assumption that spillover will be applied in Aug & Sept only?

Hi Bookworm,

Our algorithms mimic how USCIS and DOS work. They do not apply any extra visas to backlogged countries before Q4. However you can use iForecast and see how the behaviour will change if you use early spillover (which we can;t rule out).

Right now the model is not set for 2021 year. We will do so on Oct 1st 2020. However you can still forecast how the 100K extra visas might move dates. Just update 2021 quota to 240K.

If that is not showing you any improvement, it is possible you might be doing something wrong. In that case, send us details of what you are doing your PD etc by email and if possible include a screenshot.

[bookworm]

Hi Bookworm,

Our algorithms mimic how USCIS and DOS work. They do not apply any extra visas to backlogged countries before Q4. However you can use iForecast and see how the behaviour will change if you use early spillover (which we can;t rule out).

Right now the model is not set for 2021 year. We will do so on Oct 1st 2020. However you can still forecast how the 100K extra visas might move dates. Just update 2021 quota to 240K.

If that is not showing you any improvement, it is possible you might be doing something wrong. In that case, send us details of what you are doing your PD etc by email and if possible include a screenshot.

Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date :(

I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.

[whereismygc]

Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date :(

I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.

You don't have to wait. But that's ok. If you change your mind, just send us the details and we will look into it.

p.s. - Q does oversee the whole operation. But this account is a general account managed by available team members. If you ever want to reach Q, directly send him a message using inbox.

[whereismygc]

Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date :(

I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.
Hello bookworm,

This problem is now solved. Please login and check. If you still have any issues please don't hesitate to reach out.

[EB22010Dec]

Is the site down?
I see it as 'in maintenance'

[whereismygc]

Is the site down?
I see it as 'in maintenance'
It was down for weekly maintenance. Now it is up.

[bookworm]

Hello bookworm,

This problem is now solved. Please login and check. If you still have any issues please don't hesitate to reach out.

Thank you for the quick turnaround! It works now!

[EB22010Dec]

I really wish whereismygc provides clarity into the 'how' of the prediction.
When others in the forums are giving out numbers such as 90k people waiting for EAT till 2011 May, paid members do not know who to trust.

Mr.Q can you look into this.

[whereismygc]

I really wish whereismygc provides clarity into the 'how' of the prediction.
When others in the forums are giving out numbers such as 90k people waiting for EAT till 2011 May, paid members do not know who to trust.

Mr.Q can you look into this.
Sure. This is what we do.

We estimate current backlog as well as future demand by country as well as category. Then we put that into our model. We also estimate various parameters such as denial rates, approval rates and many other things and input them into the model. And then we let the algorithms simulate the way DOS and USCIS would process the queue.

As time goes by new information pops up and we do incorporate such information and adjust our assumption (be it demand or USCIS / DOS operating parameters etc).

The algorithms don't lie. They are biased only to the extent individuals doing the forecast are biased or are limited in their visibility to the data. We remain true to our goal of providing clarity and NEVER EVER engage in building a rosy picture just to get few more customers. We have many instances when people get frustrated and login and logout within minutes when they see reality of how long the wait really is. But we have never ever engaged in making picture look any better than it really is.

This is not a sales pitch. We are just laying out our process and principles - both. Luckily this year there is going to be a very huge number of extra visas available. Many of the backlogged people will benefit tremendously as this is going to cut down their waiting times by years. If they choose to use WhereismyGC, rest assured, we will provide the most realistic assessment of where we believe the chips will fall. We will remain open to new information and will continue to update the model throughout the year.

Hope this helps. Happy to answer further questions.

p.s. - Q is very much active in WhereismyGC. But he wants to ensure that nobody on this blog feels obligated to purchase anything and people can freely use the blog, make predictions and help each other regardless of whether they are or are not customers of WhereismyGC.

[EB22010Dec]

Sure. This is what we do.

We estimate current backlog as well as future demand by country as well as category. Then we put that into our model. We also estimate various parameters such as denial rates, approval rates and many other things and input them into the model. And then we let the algorithms simulate the way DOS and USCIS would process the queue.

As time goes by new information pops up and we do incorporate such information and adjust our assumption (be it demand or USCIS / DOS operating parameters etc).

The algorithms don't lie. They are biased only to the extent individuals doing the forecast are biased or are limited in their visibility to the data. We remain true to our goal of providing clarity and NEVER EVER engage in building a rosy picture just to get few more customers. We have many instances when people get frustrated and login and logout within minutes when they see reality of how long the wait really is. But we have never ever engaged in making picture look any better than it really is.

This is not a sales pitch. We are just laying out our process and principles - both. Luckily this year there is going to be a very huge number of extra visas available. Many of the backlogged people will benefit tremendously as this is going to cut down their waiting times by years. If they choose to use WhereismyGC, rest assured, we will provide the most realistic assessment of where we believe the chips will fall. We will remain open to new information and will continue to update the model throughout the year.

Hope this helps. Happy to answer further questions.

p.s. - Q is very much active in WhereismyGC. But he wants to ensure that nobody on this blog feels obligated to purchase anything and people can freely use the blog, make predictions and help each other regardless of whether they are or are not customers of WhereismyGC.

Thank you for the detailed explanation.

Can you please debate the Eb2 90K 2011 May number.

Also, can you please let me know if the number of people before you in WhereisMyGC includes all dependents.

[whereismygc]

Thank you for the detailed explanation.

Can you please debate the Eb2 90K 2011 May number.

Also, can you please let me know if the number of people before you in WhereisMyGC includes all dependents.

You are very welcome. The 'people ahead of you' does include ALL dependents too. But we are afraid we can't discuss or comment on either our data or somebody else' data.

We can't discuss data for 2 reasons: A) it is part of our secret sauce. 2) It can be complicated and time consuming to discuss it with people. Paid members can see how many people are ahead of them in their category and country and their own PD.

[cool_dude]

When will you update prediction with 265k numbers? I am a paid user

[whereismygc]

When will you update prediction with 265k numbers? I am a paid user
Any user can update the 2021 number and run your own forecast using iForecast.

We will update the model on 1st October and will update 2021 number then.

[whereismygc]

Today we made one more change to our plans. We added the feature to change priority date for users on monthly plan. This will allow users to simulate forecast in EB2 vs EB3. You will have to change dates in your profile to run the forecast for the new category you change to.

[EB22010Dec]

Hello Q, can you tell us if we are tracking accurately to what you have predicted by the Fiscal year-end of 2020?

[qesehmk]

Hello Q, can you tell us if we are tracking accurately to what you have predicted by the Fiscal year-end of 2020?
I am sorry, I no longer predict.
p.s. - I assume the question was for WhereismyGC. Admins please respond.

[EB22010Dec]

I am sorry, I no longer predict.
p.s. - I assume the question was for WhereismyGC. Admins please respond.

So Q != Whereismygc .... hmm, never realized that.

[whereismygc]

We will update the forecast accuracy soon. We tracked pretty well this year. Will update the 2020 performance soon. But it would not be unreasonable to say generally we have been within a couple of months.

[whereismygc]

So Q != Whereismygc .... hmm, never realized that.

Q is co-founder.

[EB22010Dec]

Q is co-founder.

Can you please look at PM and respond to it.

[whereismygc]

Can you please look at PM and respond to it.

just did. hope it is useful.

[NJMavarick]

Dear All,

Before October we will be introducing recurring monthly and recurring annual subscriptions.

The new plans will be priced at $7.95 per month and $74.95 per year. There will be no contracts.

All existing customers will be able to move to new plans and be eligible for a prorated refund on old plans.

We just want to do our bit to help during these challenging times. These are exciting times as well since potentially over 100K new visas might be available next year.

Stay tuned and god speed to your freedom.

www.whereismygc.com

Expected date for the new plans to be available - Sep 30th, 2020.

We will update this post if there are changes. Apologies for the delay.

Is this available? I am wondering if I buy the monthly plan now, will I get re-imbursement based on the new plan structure?

[whereismygc]

Is this available? I am wondering if I buy the monthly plan now, will I get re-imbursement based on the new plan structure?
Sorry ... we are going to have to push this by another week now because we also need to update the model tonight.

The new plans will be available on or before Oct 7th.

Existing users can buy the new plans and we will refund their existing plans prorated. Apologies for the delay.

[NJMavarick]

Sorry ... we are going to have to push this by another week now because we also need to update the model tonight.

The new plans will be available on or before Oct 7th.

Existing users can buy the new plans and we will refund their existing plans prorated. Apologies for the delay.

Thanks. I am a paid member now. Sent you a PM

[whereismygc]

Thanks. I am a paid member now. Sent you a PM

Welcome. If you ever have questions please feel free to raise them here or via email help at wh..

[Zenzone]

Sorry ... we are going to have to push this by another week now because we also need to update the model tonight.

The new plans will be available on or before Oct 7th.

Existing users can buy the new plans and we will refund their existing plans prorated. Apologies for the delay.

Thanks for the update. I'm also a paid member (annual membership) of your old plan.

[cool_dude]

I am also paid memeber of old plan..

[whereismygc]

Thanks guys ... once we move to the new ones you all are welcome to move to the new ones.

[whereismygc]

Due to planned Forecast Model Update for year 2021 the site will remain unavailable between 11 pm ET on Sep 30th and 1 pm ET on Oct 1st.

[whereismygc]

The model is updated and site is up now. Please treat this first iteration as a ballpark. We will keep adjusting the model as time goes by and new information comes forward.

[rohanvus]

The model is updated and site is up now. Please treat this first iteration as a ballpark. We will keep adjusting the model as time goes by and new information comes forward.

Thanks for the update . I am a paid member (with yearly subscription plan)
I need some clarification - Was not sure if could ask my question regarding the prediction of EB2 vs EB3 (based the updated model) directly in open forum . Hence i emailed you .

Please let me know

[whereismygc]

Thanks for the update . I am a paid member (with yearly subscription plan)
I need some clarification - Was not sure if could ask my question regarding the prediction of EB2 vs EB3 (based the updated model) directly in open forum . Hence i emailed you .

Please let me know

Thank you. We sent out a commentary on EB2-I vs EB3-I dates movement. Hope that helps.

[Greentothemoon]

Where can I read your commentary ? I am paid member.
Thank you.

[whereismygc]

Where can I read your commentary ? I am paid member.
Thank you.
You can find all recent updates on the top menu bar under "Updates". To view premium updates you must have a paid subscription and be logged in. Let us know if there are further questions.

[Greentothemoon]

I found them .Very informative. just one question: My PD is July 2010 EB2. should I stay in EB2 or down grade EB3 to catch FAD? Do you think my PD in FAD will be current sooner in EB3 compared to EB2 at least by sept 2021. Thank you.

[whereismygc]

I found them .Very informative. just one question: My PD is July 2010 EB2. should I stay in EB2 or down grade EB3 to catch FAD? Do you think my PD in FAD will be current sooner in EB3 compared to EB2 at least by sept 2021. Thank you.

Glad you found them useful. Everybody's situation is different and so we let users use our forecast to make a decision for themselves. Our generic advice on downgrade/upgrade is that while you do it - DO NOT - lose your current category. Try to file separate rather than replace your existing application.

[whereismygc]

We keep sharing our own updates at https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

This includes all the emails we send out too.

Most of these updates are free. But to read some of them you do need a paid subscription.

[cool_dude]

The EB3 prediction for may 2011 date seems way off..

[whereismygc]

The EB3 prediction for may 2011 date seems way off..
Thank you. It is not off. That is what the prediction is as of today. We have made 2/3 comments on this topic. Please see updates at https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

[whereismygc]

The site is off until we make transition today to new plans. Estimate time to completion 1 day.

[whereismygc]

The transition is almost complete. Existing users may use the website. New users will have to wait one more day before we make plans operational.

[whereismygc]

Dear All

We are excited to announce launch of our new and affordable monthly and annual subscription plans. Go to https://www.whereismygc.com/stripe_pricing.php to purchase.

Existing users can choose to move to the new plans and get refund on the old ones. Just purchase new ones and emails us for a refund.

Our new plans start at 7.95/month. There are no contracts and obligations. The current month becomes fully payable on 1st day. You can cancel anytime.

Also for new customers we are introducing a no obligation completely FREE TRIAL of 7 days. You can cancel anytime for any reason or no reason at all.

Please spread the word and let your friends see what 2021 has in store for their own GC application.

As we move through this transition, if you have any problems or questions please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions or problems. As always we wish you the very best with your Green Card application.

[whereismygc]

Since we are receiving repeat questions about whether somebody should downgrade to EB3, we just want to say that so far we have made four posts on this topic at https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php. Please use that information and make your own determination. We can NOT advise individually and will not do so.

[whereismygc]

We updated the forecast. We reassessed demand for EB3 ROW as well as EB3-I and made adjustments.

[whereismygc]

Today we have rolled out a feature in iForecast where you can run simulation for another date, country, category from within iForecast.

Thus you do not have to go back to your profile to change the date.

As always if there are questions or problems reach out to us via email or this thread.

[whereismygc]

We again updated the model. For details please see the website. In the interest of sending out less emails we only are posting it here and on our own website under "Updates".

[whereismygc]

Tip of the day

We are seeing a lot of folks continue to go to their "Profile Settings" to change date and see forecast. You no longer need to do that. Just use iForecast. You can change dates there without having to change your own profile date.

[cancer24]

One question about the prediction. What does the date “Est. GC approval on or before” indicates. Is it for the getting the GC approved all the way something else. In my case it is really quick - like 8 months to get GC after filing 485.

[whereismygc]

One question about the prediction. What does the date “Est. GC approval on or before” indicates. Is it for the getting the GC approved all the way something else. In my case it is really quick - like 8 months to get GC after filing 485.

Yes. That's what it is. You should also look at the optimistic and pessimistic scenario to understand your cone of probability.

[mesan123]

With this new bulletin , with so less movement for EB2 will the forecast(whereismygc forecast) change ... why so low movement for EB2..any insight will be appreciated

[whereismygc]

With this new bulletin , with so less movement for EB2 will the forecast(whereismygc forecast) change ... why so low movement for EB2..any insight will be appreciated

Hi Mesan - we have shared this as part of "updates" on our site.

[rohanvus]

Hi Mesan - we have shared this as part of "updates" on our site.

So per your updates we assume 140K visa and not 261K visa as official at this point . .
140k vs 261K visas - should'nt this affect the forecast ? i dont see any change in the forecast for Eb2/EB3 2011 PDs .
Is your current forecast assuming 140K or 261K visas?

[whereismygc]

So per your updates we assume 140K visa and not 261K visa as official at this point . .
140k vs 261K visas - should'nt this affect the forecast ? i dont see any change in the forecast for Eb2/EB3 2011 PDs .
Is your current forecast assuming 140K or 261K visas?
We assume 261K.

[whereismygc]

The VB seems to have been temporarily withdrawn. But it is still available as of this moment at this link:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[whereismygc]

We are glad to announce launch of our NEW mobile friendly website www.whereismygc.com
Now you can stay on top of the GC forecast, news, and updates anywhere.

Happy Diwali to everybody. Get 25% off for 3 months. Use promo code SHUBHDIPAWALI25

[whereismygc]

Just a reminder to folks that we do not predict VB movements from one month to next. We focus more on when a candidate might be approved for a green card.

We have built a "Fundamental" model of forecasting. Forecasting has 3 types - technical, fundamental and parametric. Ours is a fundamental model that looks at fundamental factors such as demand, supply, processing times, denial rates at various stages etc.

VB date movements can be jerky - simply to build new backlog of cases. They are a poor predictor of when a candidate case might be approved.

[whereismygc]

Starting this month, every month we will publish our take on Visa Bulletin. This will be accessible to paid members at https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

[whereismygc]

We have started this Facebook group for discussing issues of backlogged people.

This is not meant for "Calculations and Predictions" but for usual Q&A between users. We too of course will answer what we can.

EB Green Card Backlog (https://www.facebook.com/groups/381621416378121)

[whereismygc]

What
Today Senate passed an amended HR1044 by unanimous consent. This bill removes country caps from EB category and lifts them to 15% in FB categories.
HR1044 was originally sponsored in the house by Rep Zoe Lofgren of California. It passed house in Sep 2019. Since then it came to senate where Sen. Lee proposed a competing bill, S386 which likely is incorporated into an amended HR1044 and now stands passed the senate.

So What
If this bill becomes law, wait times for EB-IC will drastically reduce and those for all other countries will eventually come to parity with EB-IC. (There are some nuances but not worth discussing right now).

Now What
Since an amendment is passed rather than the original house bill, this amended bill heads back to congress that needs to quickly pass this. It is anybody's guess what will happen given the short time left during this congress' term. Let's hope the house passes it and then President Trump signs this into a law within next seven weeks. Congress only has 2 weeks left of its current session.

Link to a copy of the amended HR1044

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=1766&d=1606958983

[whereismygc]

There are widespread and inaccurate reports that S386 is passed. That's not true.

S386 was a competing senate bill to HR1044. It is where it is. In the judiciary committee.

What was passed in the senate yesterday is an amended HR1044.

It means that the house only needs to approve the amendment. If it were S386 being passed then there would have been a long and painful process of reconciling house bill and senate bill. With amendment there is some (not a whole lot) hope that the house may actually take this up and pass.

It all depends on how complicated and contentious the amendment is or is not.

[whereismygc]

Forecast updated.

Over the weekend we had an update to ROW data. The model now stands updated.

[whereismygc]

Removal of country caps is necessary but not sufficient to alleviate the long wait times in EB Green Card backlog.

Here is our estimate of how wait times will look now and in future for people who file for green card today.

https://www.whereismygc.com/Images/2020-wait-times.jpg

1767

[whereismygc]

As you might recall, senate recently approved HR1044 with amendments. These amendments - according to Zoe Lofgren - make the matter worse. With clock running out for the congress, this bill is almost dead on arrival. However right now we see a smokescreen being created where the narrative is that the Chinese are opposed to the bill because of the offensive language. In our judgement this is a sideshow not worth discussing. The reality of the bill is it has very little if any chance of passing during this congress.

However during next administration we do think similar bills can be passed with right level of advocacy.

[whereismygc]

If you are paid customers of WhereismyGC - do check out our "Stocks" feature.

In just 2 weeks since we launched we are 3 out of 3 on all 3 ideas we pitched. On Friday we pitched one at 8.48 that is trading at 9.9 as of right now.

This feature is included in your WhereismyGC membership as of now.

[whereismygc]

Thanks @spacetime

We will review this new information (which seems credible) and update our forecast model by tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.


Gurus,

I’m sure you must have seen David Bier’s tweet for pending AOS for India as of March 31, 2020. Here is the link.

https://twitter.com/david_j_bier/status/1343633515431284738?s=21

Based on these numbers , what do you think of chances of advancements for EB2/3 India?

[whereismygc]

The forecast was updated after incorporating some elements of data that Mr. David Brier published on twitter after receiving from USCIS.

Details - The data was overall in line with our projections in terms of magnitude. But the timing of some of the numbers was off. There were some elements that we retained but mostly we chose to ignore the data as we felt more confident in our own data. Later on if our forecast diverges significantly from reality then we will revisit this. But at this time we feel good about our own data and as mentioned earlier did make adjustments to EB1 and some other data.

The forecast can be accessed at https://www.whereismygc.com

Free trial is available for new users.

[whereismygc]

WhereismyGC.com is down for year end maintenance today. Please bear with us. We will be up tomorrow.

If we finish early we will let you know. Apologies for the inconvenience.

The site is now Up

[whereismygc]

Trump's visa ban although unfortunate for many will be again useful for the backlogged community. Our estimate is that this will result in EB category getting another 120K visas from EB for year 2022. You can model this in iForecast on WhereismyGC (https://www.whereismygc.com/customForecast.php). Once logged in, just adjust the 2022 number to 260,000. And see how that affects your wait time for green card.

As of now we will not implement this change in our forecast. But this has become a good possibility that you can model yourself and see its effect.

[Palver]

Trump's visa ban although unfortunate for many will be again useful for the backlogged community. Our estimate is that this will result in EB category getting another 120K visas from EB for year 2022. You can model this in iForecast on WhereismyGC (https://www.whereismygc.com/customForecast.php). Once logged in, just adjust the 2022 number to 260,000. And see how that affects your wait time for green card.

As of now we will not implement this change in our forecast. But this has become a good possibility that you can model yourself and see its effect.

How likely is this? And what can prevent this spillover besides congress passing a law forbidding it?

[whereismygc]

How likely is this? And what can prevent this spillover besides congress passing a law forbidding it?
The only thing that will reduce the spillover from 120K is if the virus is well controlled worldwide and the US consulates work overtime to reduce CP backlog.

The probability of spillover of 120K is 70% and 160K is 50% (just a gut feel).

[mesan123]

I am getting server not found when i am trying to open whereismygc site? Does anyone have same issue??

[whereismygc]

I am getting server not found when i am trying to open whereismygc site? Does anyone have same issue??

Hi Mesan

The site is up and running fine. Are you still having issues?

[mesan123]

Hi Mesan

The site is up and running fine. Are you still having issues? today i was able to login. Thank you

[whereismygc]

If you wish to receive stock alerts, you can update your preference in you profile settings on www.whereismygc.com

Now on, the alerts will go out only to those that expressly opt for it.

[whereismygc]

After successfully piloting Qs Stocks feature and seeking your feedback, we are introducing Stocks as a separate plan. With this plan you will get access to forecast as well as stock tips and alerts. Accordingly our terms have been changed to reflect this new service and associated terms.

Over last 2 months, if you had invested 1000 dollars each in the 12 stocks we alerted, your money would have doubled and you would have earned roughly $12,000. You can view our performance HERE (https://www.whereismygc.com/Images/Qs Stocks - Performance.jpg). The new plan is being introduced at a low introductory price of $24.95. As year goes by and you get more and more value, do expect this price to go up significantly. There is no way you will double money every two months. But we sure hope that you make much much more than what you pay for this plan.

We look forward to providing you great alerts and tips as well as hearing from you any feedback.

[whereismygc]

We have updated the forecast model to account for potential extra visas EB categories might receive from under usage in Family categories in 2021 due to ongoing COVID situation. As time goes by we will continue to update our estimate.

[whereismygc]

If you can't view your plan features, just write to us. Please do not purchase a duplicate subscription.

Our payment processor is renewing subscriptions 2 hours later than usual resulting in a 2 hours window when if you log in, you can't view your plan features.

We apologize for this anomaly. We will fix this in 24 hours!

Thank you for your business and attention.

[whereismygc]

Today in a Youtube live video chat (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A7jX4Xvi9Y), Charlie Oppenheim, the dept of state official, said that for 2022, he think 275K visas will be available for EB. We will take him on his word and update the 2022 limit to 275K in our model.

At the same time though the 2020 visa usage has showed that DoS and USCIS underutilized 2020 limit by 7K visas. So we are afraid that in 2021, we might see similar wastage. Thus we are lowering 2021 visa limit from 262K to 250K in our model to be realistic how far people may get their GCs.

To view the updated forecast model, please visit us at https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Thanks all for your understanding. In 15 minutes we got overwhelmed and had to move to Google. The updated link is provided above.

[whereismygc]

The DoS has published the Jun 2021 Visa Bulletin.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-june-2021.html

Our take is that the bulletin while positive still feels very tightly controlled in how the dates are being moved. It makes us wonder if this is because of processing bottlenecks. We are afraid we might be heading towards wastage of visas.

For more details visit: https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

[whereismygc]

The lack of sufficient movement in EB2-I dates in Jun-21 VB makes us conclude that during 2021 USCIS is on track to utilize around 210K visas (52K less than available). This is unfortunate for the backlogged candidates. We will be glad to be proven wrong. Our forecast is updated accordingly.

#backlog #visabulletin #uscis #greencard #gcforecast

https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

After we provided 52K estimated visas being wasted, a number of lawyers are also expressing similar views. Some are soliciting participation in a potential lawsuit against USCIS. Visa wastage can have real negative impact on people and thus such lawsuit can have merit. However as a backlogged community we think simply writing to your own congressman as well as senator about this wastage will be much more impactful, realistic, and lasting. Here is a template we are providing. Take it, read it and if you agree shoot it to your congressman and senator.

------ BEGIN --------
Dear Sir/Madam,

I am writing to make you aware of potential wastage of 52,000 Green Card Visas this year. At a time when an estimated 0.7M people born in India are waiting as much as 10 years such wastage is unconscionable. Estimated 1.2M people are waiting in employment based green card category. Of these more than 0.7M are people born in India. While most other applicants can get a Green Card within 1-2 years, people from India in EB2 and EB3 category (0.7M in total) are facing unimaginable wait times. In fact at the current rates many of these people have no realistic hope to ever obtain a green card during their lifetime.

I am once such person affected by this wastage. May I suggest two specific actions that you can do today?

Action 1 - Please write to USCIS and ask them to use all visas by issuing conditional green cards. The applicant should be able to convert to a permanent card after USCIS is able to process the application fully.
Action 2 - Please write to the President expressing your support for the Biden Immigration Plan and ask him for a final vote on this before Oct 2021.

United States is a land of opportunity because it is a land of justice. The impending visa wastage by USCIS can be verified by simply asking them how many visas they have utilized and intend to use this year. Independent websites like WhereismyGC have estimated 52K visa wastage based on data models of visa demand and date movements in visa bulletin. I ask you to hold USCIS responsible and avoid such a wastage as well as move the ball further on Biden Immigration Plan.

Sincerely,
XXXX

------ END --------

[whereismygc]

In memory of the fallen. Happy memorial day.

Get 20% off all plans for 2 months. Code FREEDOM2021

Expires May 31st

[whereismygc]

Yes. There will be. We just added our take at www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Based on comments by DOS Visa Chief Charlie Oppenheim that 100K EB visas could be wasted during 2021, we have updated our forecast model accordingly.

You can access it at www.whereismygc.com

Earlier about 3 months back we had estimated the wastage to be at least 50K. But our view was that as vaccinations pick up speed and post covid recovery kicks in, DOS and USCIS might get into extra gear, But it was not meant to be.

As of now we think for 2021 the Aug final action dates have some chance of actually getting approved. Not all will though. We do not expect Sep bulletin to bring in any significant dates movement.

For year 2022 though the good news is that the unused 150K on the FB side will rollover to EB and EB quota will be 290K. Whether USCIS will process those many EB applications remains to be seen.

[whereismygc]

Whether EB2 or EB3 will move faster depends on demand as well as visa utilization within that category. If USCIS is going to waste 100K visas this year and perhaps next year, it completely changes the answer to whether EB2 or EB3 will move faster. That's why we have built a tool that allows YOU to change visa levels and see which category moves faster.

www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Starting Oct 1st, new subscriptions will be charged as follows:

GC Forecast - $12.95/mo & $124.95 /yr
Qs stocks - $24.95/mo & $249.95/yr

All subscriptions purchased prior to Oct 1st 2021 will continue to be charged at the old rates for one more year through Sep 2022. Then they will be converted to the new rates.

[whereismygc]

We are pleasantly surprised to see the speed picked up by USCIS.
We have revised our visa utilization forecast by a whopping 45,000.

https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Our latest forecast is that during 2021 210K visa will be utilized and thus 52.3K visas will be wasted.

Brief history of our visa wastage forecast.
Oct 2020 - Assumption no visa wastage
May 2021 - Estimated 55K visa wastage based on our demand model and dates movement.
July 2021 - Revised 100K visa wastage based on comments by Charlie Oppenheim.
Aug 2021 - Revised 52K visa wastage based on our demand model and dates movement.

Why did Forecast change?
So why these quick frog jumps between May and Aug? A forecast should be stable. Isn't it?

The short answer is Dept of State Visa Control Office (headed by Charlie) has very limited visibility into the operations of USCIS. So in hindsight we should have trusted our own model and dates movements rather than his remarks (which now seem were more conservative than necessary).

The long answer involves the opacity of USCIS operations and the deliberate step approval process they engage in.
1) USCIS doesn't provide a complete or even partial visibility of their case backlog - let alone provide a visibility to the maturity of those cases. So it is a huge guesswork to figure out potential rate of approval.
2) Even worse than #1 is USCIS' deliberate withholding of extra visas right until Aug Sep timeframe. A decade earlier USCIS used to give away unused visas from other categories to backlogged categories on a quarterly basis. But without any explanation they stopped doing that and now they process all or majority of extra visas in August and September. This creates huge potential for visas wastage because it puts extra ordinary burden on their own visa processing capacity. Just think about it they could easily have given away the 52K potential wastage if they had acted earlier. But they CHOSE not to. This is a policy decision that is very difficult to model in our forecast. That's why we have to wait until May 24th to figure out that the visa wastage level.

Is there a value in forecasting
It is natural and fair to ask if this whole forecasting business is useful?

Our view is that forecasting despite the uncertainty involved is useful. It's a way to manage risk and be prepared. Forecasting gives backlogged candidates an excellent ballpark of their wait times. We continue to update the forecast according to the ebbs and flow of the USCIS/DOS operations and news so that when your time nears you get as best picture as possible. We wish you use this information to make your immigration journey as easy as possible and make good decisions about life and career as you wait for your Green Card approval.

All the best.

[sudebusa]

Starting Oct 1st, new subscriptions will be charged as follows:

GC Forecast - $12.95/mo & $124.95 /yr
Qs stocks - $24.95/mo & $249.95/yr

All subscriptions purchased prior to Oct 1st 2021 will continue to be charged at the old rates for one more year through Sep 2022. Then they will be converted to the new rates.

Hi Q - Do you have any plan to launch a "Stocks only" subscription?

Thanks.

[whereismygc]

Hi Q - Do you have any plan to launch a "Stocks only" subscription?

Thanks.

Thank you for your question. Yes, today complimentary access to GC Forecast is included in Qs Stocks. This is primarily because most of our current Qs Stocks members are waiting for GC as well. We can potentially decouple them but given that majority of customers are also waiting for GC it is more convenient to keep GC forecast access in Stocks membership.

But since you asked, we will consider doing so but right now we can't say how soon. Thank you.

[giveittome]

so this whereismygc pessimistic model also predicted my priority date wrong. my pd is july 30,2015 - per charlie it may not become current in FY 2022.

[whereismygc]

so this whereismygc pessimistic model also predicted my priority date wrong. my pd is july 30,2015 - per charlie it may not become current in FY 2022.
FY 2022 hasn't even begun. It is too premature to call the predictions wrong.

[giveittome]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?

[giveittome]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?

[whereismygc]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?
We have added an update on WhereismyGC.com that discusses impact on WhereismyGC forecast.

[whereismygc]

One of the users brought this to our attention. USCIS in a sworn affidavit told a judge last week that they will end up using around 180K visa between them and DOS for year 2021.

USCIS Affidavit (https://vault.netvoyage.com/neWeb2/delView.aspx?env=%2FQ18%2Fs%2F6%2F1%2Fu%2F~2109031 73422512.nev&dn=1&v=1&dl=1&p=0&e=20211003&t=jrgfBI59frJB%2BK6hjfM9zVsNVZY%3D&cg=NG-67QGLL6S&hd=1&nf=N&s=VAULT-TB60XWR0&em=laxelrod%40visalaw.com&m=dl&pw=)


We won't be changing our forecast though. It is too late and futile to change it. If you want you can change the 2021 visas to 180K in iForecast to see how forecast changes.

[whereismygc]

Visa Bulletin Commentary updated online at https://www.whereismygc.com

Basically we think the Oct 2021 VB is a bit reassuring but mostly uneventful.

[montyp80]

Visa Bulletin Commentary updated online at https://www.whereismygc.com

Basically we think the Oct 2021 VB is a bit reassuring but mostly uneventful.

Hi Q, by reassuring, did you mean that 'WhereismyGC' forecast model is still aligned with the FAD/DOF movements in Oct 21? There is a mention of retrogression for EB3I FAD in Oct VB, will this not impact the forecast model?

[whereismygc]

Hi Q, by reassuring, did you mean that 'WhereismyGC' forecast model is still aligned with the FAD/DOF movements in Oct 21? There is a mention of retrogression for EB3I FAD in Oct VB, will this not impact the forecast model?
The forecast model will be updated and aligned on Oct 1st. But always remember that the model and actual VB are not always in sych because of two reasons- 1) the natural ebbs and flows of visa approvals and forecast inaccuracy 2) USCIS underutilization of visas.

Right now the #2 is the bigger driver behind uncertainty. But be that as may be, we will update the model on Oct 1st assuming full visa utilization and including expected spillover. Our tool does provide you way to change the visa availability and simulate what will happen if USCIS uses less visas.

Finally the reason we think the VB is still reassuring is simply because we did not see massive retrogression (which we honestly we expecting because we thought the dates may have been moved too far to allow fast approval of eligible cases. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Hope this helps.

[montyp80]

The forecast model will be updated and aligned on Oct 1st. But always remember that the model and actual VB are not always in sych because of two reasons- 1) the natural ebbs and flows of visa approvals and forecast inaccuracy 2) USCIS underutilization of visas.

Right now the #2 is the bigger driver behind uncertainty. But be that as may be, we will update the model on Oct 1st assuming full visa utilization and including expected spillover. Our tool does provide you way to change the visa availability and simulate what will happen if USCIS uses less visas.

Finally the reason we think the VB is still reassuring is simply because we did not see massive retrogression (which we honestly we expecting because we thought the dates may have been moved too far to allow fast approval of eligible cases. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Hope this helps.

Ok, so if I am reading this correctly, movements in Oct VB exceeded your expectations on the positive side. And if that's correct, why re-align the model? I get that model has no direct dependencies on the VBs but jus trying to understand the need for realignment of model?

[whereismygc]

Ok, so if I am reading this correctly, movements in Oct VB exceeded your expectations on the positive side. And if that's correct, why re-align the model? I get that model has no direct dependencies on the VBs but jus trying to understand the need for realignment of model?

Model is otherwise updated continuously anyway. But beginning of year is the time when we revisit our most basic assumptions, clean out demand from prior year that is now approved and start fresh. e.g. COVID has artificially suppressed EB demand - that was our assumption. But this year it seems DOS has cleared our CP cases better than USCIS has dealt with 485 cases. So that assumption will certainly change how we model our data.

Just one example to illustrate the point.

[montyp80]

Model is otherwise updated continuously anyway. But beginning of year is the time when we revisit our most basic assumptions, clean out demand from prior year that is now approved and start fresh. e.g. COVID has artificially suppressed EB demand - that was our assumption. But this year it seems DOS has cleared our CP cases better than USCIS has dealt with 485 cases. So that assumption will certainly change how we model our data.

Just one example to illustrate the point.

Thank you for that clarification

[whereismygc]

Thank you for that clarification

You are welcome. Honestly there is one more reason for reset.


In addition to the things mentioned above - we must also remove the delta i.e. inaccuracy from prior year forecast. This way we are best prepared for 2022. Otherwise that delta can accumulate and make 2022 worse. Hope this explains more!

[whereismygc]

The website www.whereismygc.com will be down as we reset our forecasting model for USCIS year 2022.

We expect the website to be ready with new data by EOD on Oct 1st.

[whereismygc]

We have reset our forecasting model and the website is now available.

Our assumptions: We are assuming 275K visas available during 2022 and that they will be used. We are also assuming that between 20-60% of 485s filed during 2021 fiscal remain unapproved.
Improvement: All of this is very very preliminary and thus take it with a grain of salt. We will perfect this model between Oct and December.
Your comments are welcome and let us know if you see any problems or things that make no sense. If we think you have discovered a flaw in our model then we will automatically give you back your monthly payment for the current month.

We wish you the very best 2022!

[rohanvus]

We have reset our forecasting model and the website is now available.

Our assumptions: We are assuming 275K visas available during 2022 and that they will be used. We are also assuming that between 20-60% of 485s filed during 2021 fiscal remain unapproved.
Improvement: All of this is very very preliminary and thus take it with a grain of salt. We will perfect this model between Oct and December.
Your comments are welcome and let us know if you see any problems or things that make no sense. If we think you have discovered a flaw in our model then we will automatically give you back your monthly payment for the current month.

We wish you the very best 2022!

I renewed my annual subscription today but still dont see any forecast . Is there any lag time here ?

[whereismygc]

I renewed my annual subscription today but still dont see any forecast . Is there any lag time here ?

Can you please try logging off and then login back again? Let us know if that doesn't solve the problem.

[whereismygc]

We are making a very significant change to the forecast model. Please read carefully as this impacts you all.

We are introducing visa wastage as a parameter in our forecast model. So far we have been assuming that USCIS will utilize all available visas. But even before COVID USCIS has been wasting visas between 1 and 2%. After COVID during year 2021, they seem to have wasted approximately 20% visas. Such wastage very significantly impacts our forecast. As a result we are now introducing "Visa Wastage" as a factor.

This change is now available to all paid users. Currently the system makes assumptions that in 2022 under best average and worst case scenario 0%, 20%, and 30% visas will be wasted respectively.

Very soon we will roll out the ability for YOU to make your own assumption.

[thums123]

For EB3 India was the retrogression taken into effect? For xxxxx PD, it still shows Sep 2022 as possible forecast for Final Action Date. Is it accurate?

[whereismygc]

For EB3 India was the retrogression taken into effect? For xxxxx PD, it still shows Sep 2022 as possible forecast for Final Action Date. Is it accurate?

We think the retrogression will be lifted as soon as the FB spillover will be made available in EB.

[whereismygc]

Charlie provided an update today. It contains some good data. We will update our forecast model by Saturday evening.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TNpUZtxa3s

[whereismygc]

Based on Charlie Oppenheim provided data we have updated the predictions and have also included some comments under "Updates". Overall we think charlie provided some good insights and that helps us establish good footing. The work was almost forensic where we had to correlate between last years model vs this years and then going forward what we were projecting vs charlies data. But we are glad we were able to make sense of it.

One side effect of all these calculations is that now it is clear to us (and you heard this FIRST from WhereismyGC) that DOS controls Final action dates and USCIS controls filing dates with an implicit agreement that FADs can never get ahead of filing dates.

Because there is very substantial 485s filed that are unprocessed, we also think we might see either retrogression in final action dates or very very long processing times for 485.

Finally, data is data. Our goal is not to be biased one way or other. We hope our predictions help you. We have one request though, some of you try to work with us to really dig into our model and folks thats not useful nor it is possible for us to engage you and explain our model in details. Your questions are welcome but please respect our time too.

Have a great weekend!

[whereismygc]

With our last update to our predictions model we now feel decently grounded in our 2022 forecast. Charlie Oppenheim provided some decent data that was useful in identifying our flaws and gaps.

The key message for 2022 is that there is huge unprocessed demand from 2021 and so in lieu of FB spillover do not expect miracles in 2022.

If we do receive FB spillover then we might see good date movement in 2022.

Our model accordingly reflect this message. Our best case assumes 280K visas and no wastage. Our average case expects 280K visas and 20% visas wastage and our worst case assumes not FB spillover and no wastage (even under worst case it is unimaginable that with huge backlog from 2021 how can USCIS at all waste any visas).

Because the forecast for backlogged countries is so sensitive to the level of visas, the worst case is disproportionately skewed. The best and average case will be much closer to each other and the worst case will be relatively quite far out.

However once we get clarity about the fate of FB spillover (we expect 140K to arrive from FB to EB this year), then we will update the model once again.

Hope this helps. As always feel free to raise questions by email (or here as long as the questions are not specific to your own prediction).

[whereismygc]

Rep. Nadler (D) and Rep. Loefgren (D) have included a new provision in the reconciliation bill that targets country caps. If passed then it will practically remove country caps and at the very least provide relief to all those who have already filed 485.

Read more update at https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Please like, subscribe, comment, and share.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8ygs-S3dzY

[qesehmk]

This is Q.

I am writing to express my most sincere thanks to YOU all as WhereismyGC completes 10 years tomorrow. We launched WhereismyGCs Green Card predictions service on the Gudhipadwa of 2012. Hundreds if not thousands signed up within minutes. Since then users have really embraced WhereismyGC. After 10 years of consistent efforts, people today much better understand how US immigration works, how unjust country caps are, and how hurtful visa wastage can be.

We were the first to predict that it will take decades for EB-I-23 people to get GCs. We were the first to predict portings from EB3 to EB2 as well as reverse porting from EB2 to EB3. Our focus on data has helped us always be the first to predict how things are shaping up for backlogged candidates.

We will continue to strive to provide you the most objective predictions and information. We hope it will allow you to make better decisions about your life and career as you wait in the immigration queue.

Once again my best to you all and thanks from the bottom of my heart.

Sincerely,
Q

[whereismygc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0GsdmJFdms

[whereismygc]

Today we updated the GC Forecast model again.

We took a hard look at ROW based on DOS 2021 annual report, down to the country level demand across EB1-5. Based on this we have now updated the forecast model a second time in 3 days. Thanks to the users who caught the discrepancy in ROW visas.

The new update unfortunately is a bad news for EB3-India. So if you are EB3-India take a look at it and lets discuss on our website under "Discuss". We think all those EB2--> EB3 downgrades are really going to hurt EB3. We strongly suggest all of you to look at the "Compare" feature and assess whether you may want to once again upgrade to EB2.

Please note that this model is only available under GC FORECAST plan (https://www.whereismygc.com/stripe_pricing.php) and not under PREDICT IT

p.s. - On another note we will publish visa bulletin commentary on Monday.

[whereismygc]

Forecast model is now fully revamped. Here is a summary of 3 step change to the model since last week.

1. First we made basic changes based on 2021 actual visa consumption.
2. Then we reassessed specifically EB3ROW demand and applied those changes.
3. Finally we have determined that at least 2/3 people will move back to EB2 who had last year downgraded to EB3.

There will always be some people who do not like these changes because they think this is unfair to their category. But please understand we are not decision makers. We only provide you as best information as we can.

All the best.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckmydBI_TZY

[whereismygc]

EB2 vs EB3 prospects for India during 2022 and beyond.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1OUrq2fLo8

[whereismygc]

July Visa Bulletin Commentary. Please share, like, subscribe our channel.

https://youtu.be/6vB8PvJGswM

[whereismygc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQPBNcA5Nsw

[whereismygc]

The 2023 EB predictions are now updated with estimated spillover of unused FB visas from year 2022.

Visit www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) to view.

[EB22010Dec]

Hey, is the stock service still available?
I am curious to see how you all did this year ...

Please give me the link.

[whereismygc]

Hey, is the stock service still available?
I am curious to see how you all did this year ...

Please give me the link.

Dear Sir,

In 2021 Qs stocks returned 158% annualized gain relative to 29% of S&P. (21% average gain with average holding time 49 days from 46 trades).
In 2022 Qs stocks is lagging S&P by 2.32% as of today. S&P is down by 16.6% YTD vs Qs Stocks is down by 18.9%. (12 trades 91 days average hold and 18.9% in red).

Thus overall if somebody followed every single trade since the service came into being then they would be massively up.

However, the service is closed for new customers and we may make a decision on its future sometime next year.

We are evaluating cost vs benefit and fit with WhereismyGC. We will let you know by Jan 2023 what we intend to do with the service. As of now only current paid customers can access the service. And frankly speaking we are sitting tight in this difficult market.

[whereismygc]

We made a significant update to GC predictions. Based on recent USCIS data there is a fundamental shift in understanding EB2-India demand. It seems we have been overestimating how 140 demand translates to 485 demand. As a result EB2 prospects seem much better than we previously thought.

Subscription required to view predictions and update details.

First time customers can use code NEWCUSTOMER to get 30% off. www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

September VB commentary
Please share like subscribe our channel.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1-33HM-q5A

[whereismygc]

A third of Pakistan is under water. 40 million lives are uprooted. Like many of you we are heartbroken.

If you donate to Pakistan Flood Relief, for every dollar you donate, we will give you a dollar in account credit upto $100 that can be used anytime towards any plan on WhereismyGC.

HOW TO
Simply send us your donation receipt and we will add upto $100 credit to your account. Any plan will be paid through that credit first.

Expires
This offer expires a week from now i.e. Sep 9th 2022.

Terms
The credit is non-refundable. i.e. you can request refund for this credit.

Where to Donate
Here are a few links to choose from. But you can donate anywhere else too.

https://www.gofundme.com/c/act/donate-to-pakistan-flood-relief
UNHCR (https://give.unrefugees.org/220830emer_pkflood_d_3000/?SF_onetime=7011K0000023JdVQAU&SF_monthly=7011K0000023JdaQAE&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIl-WDwJ32-QIV9f_jBx1sSgWcEAAYASAAEgJQ_vD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds)
World Food Program (https://secure.wfpusa.org/donate/pakistan-srch?ms=PakistanFlood_SRCH_GSA_CO_PAK&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIl-WDwJ32-QIV9f_jBx1sSgWcEAAYAyAAEgIdi_D_BwE)
Unicef (https://www.unicefusa.org/stories/unicef-rushes-aid-families-hit-heavy-monsoon-rains-pakistan/40307?form=FUNAXUPGCEF&utm_content=flood_pakistan_RSA&ms=cpc_dig_2022_flood_pakistan_RSA_20223008_google _flood_pakistan_RSA_delve_None&initialms=cpc_dig_2022_flood_pakistan_RSA_20223008 _google_flood_pakistan_RSA_delve_None&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIl-WDwJ32-QIV9f_jBx1sSgWcEAAYAiAAEgJE__D_BwE)
Islamic Relief USA (https://irusa.org/asia/pakistan/)
Red Cross / DEC (https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/pakistan-floods-appeal?c_name=Pakistan%20Floods%20Appeal&c_source=Homepage%20Promo%20Box&c_medium=Internal&c_creative=Donate%20Landing_Pakistan%20floods%20ho mepage%20promo%20&c_code=175149&adg=BRC%20Site)
Islamic Relief UK / DEC (https://www.islamic-relief.org.uk/pakistan-floods-appeal/)

[whereismygc]

The EB Green Card predictions model is now reset. 2023 predictions are here. Your suggestions and comments are welcome.

www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

https://youtu.be/n8rD0khOx-0

[Sebiswaiting]

Hello Q and WhereIsMyGC
Latest numbers and prediction by USCIs says that India EB2 can get around 4k and there are 41k pending cases in eb2 India alone till Dec2014.
Is whereismyGC considering these numbers or the algorithm are getting updated? I had some question the three times suggested for Dec 2014 forecast so wanted to check here .

[whereismygc]

Hello Q and WhereIsMyGC
Latest numbers and prediction by USCIs says that India EB2 can get around 4k and there are 41k pending cases in eb2 India alone till Dec2014.
Is whereismyGC considering these numbers or the algorithm are getting updated? I had some question the three times suggested for Dec 2014 forecast so wanted to check here .
Yes those numbers are in line with our model. Pl follow the discussion thread on whereismygc.