General Immigration Discussion

[bieber]

Just to keep the main thread EB2 Predictions to it's purpose, I hope we can have general discussion here

[Spectator]

An interesting article, highlighted by Ron Gotcher. http://cei.org/op-eds-and-articles/nobel-case-immigration

Nothing especially new, but good to see more and more like this putting the case for EB immigration.

In a way, it's a shame the focus is on H1B rather than Permanent Residence. They ought to make the point that without a timely path, people still won't choose to come to the USA, especially in the future.

[qesehmk]

Interesting indeed. I guess any rational argument like this gets unheard in light of recession and post-911-american-mindset both of which are fueling anti-immigrant sentiments.

But of we really try to dig into the question - whether US reallyneeds higher immigration and why - there are some things that are not as nice as we would love them to be.

Consider this: The best place to immigrate on EARTH IMHO is the USA. There is no other country that is as immigrants friendly, accepting and a place where human potential can be realized in better manner.

The key determinant in a country's relative elevation in competitiveness (and consequently living standard) is human development. So where does human development stand in India or China? And more importantly what are the determinants of human development? I think the determinants are freedom, innovation, capitalism, property rights and rule of law.

If you look at the way internet is controlled in China and the way Indian legal system is seriously backlogged ... it convinces you that the progress is really lopsided and the LCD (lowest common denominator) is not necessarily moving up with sufficient speed. Anyway ... so while US has its systemic problems ... I think the core competencies of US are so strong that any "supposed" loss of human capital is inconsequential. Even in absence of anti-immigrant sentiment the policy makers don't have sufficient information to really overhaul the immigration from economic point of view.

Some times some people say you need immigration to support GDP growth target. Typically economists target GDP growth at 3% of which 1% is productivity and 2% is population growth. Now no advance country can achieve 2% population growth and so the policy makers can target immigration as a tool to boost GDP (which they already do). But if you look at the whole IT revolution of last decade or two, it did result into much higher productivity than traditional 1%. So again they never really had to look at immigration as a significant source of GDP growth.

Now going forward though as baby boomers retire, one would've thought (rather wished) that to replace those workers one needs immigration. But hey! don't forget the 8-9M jobs lost (20M by some accounts) and the lost savings and home equities because of which the retired workforce is going to have to work longer than planned.... so does US really need additional workforce?

Guys ... this is just another perspective I am putting in front of you. I do not claim to know the true answer to the question - "Does US need higher level of immigration and why?". But an informed mind helps calm nerves.


An interesting article, highlighted by Ron Gotcher. http://cei.org/op-eds-and-articles/nobel-case-immigration

Nothing especially new, but good to see more and more like this putting the case for EB immigration.

In a way, it's a shame the focus is on H1B rather than Permanent Residence. They ought to make the point that without a timely path, people still won't choose to come to the USA, especially in the future.

[TeluguBidda]

Interesting indeed. I guess any rational argument like this gets unheard in light of recession and post-911-american-mindset both of which are fueling anti-immigrant sentiments.

But of we really try to dig into the question - whether US reallyneeds higher immigration and why - there are some things that are not as nice as we would love them to be.

Consider this: The best place to immigrate on EARTH IMHO is the USA. There is no other country that is as immigrants friendly, accepting and a place where human potential can be realized in better manner.

The key determinant in a country's relative elevation in competitiveness (and consequently living standard) is human development. So where does human development stand in India or China? And more importantly what are the determinants of human development? I think the determinants are freedom, innovation, capitalism, property rights and rule of law.

If you look at the way internet is controlled in China and the way Indian legal system is seriously backlogged ... it convinces you that the progress is really lopsided and the LCD (lowest common denominator) is not necessarily moving up with sufficient speed. Anyway ... so while US has its systemic problems ... I think the core competencies of US are so strong that any "supposed" loss of human capital is inconsequential. Even in absence of anti-immigrant sentiment the policy makers don't have sufficient information to really overhaul the immigration from economic point of view.

Some times some people say you need immigration to support GDP growth target. Typically economists target GDP growth at 3% of which 1% is productivity and 2% is population growth. Now no advance country can achieve 2% population growth and so the policy makers can target immigration as a tool to boost GDP (which they already do). But if you look at the whole IT revolution of last decade or two, it did result into much higher productivity than traditional 1%. So again they never really had to look at immigration as a significant source of GDP growth.

Now going forward though as baby boomers retire, one would've thought (rather wished) that to replace those workers one needs immigration. But hey! don't forget the 8-9M jobs lost (20M by some accounts) and the lost savings and home equities because of which the retired workforce is going to have to work longer than planned.... so does US really need additional workforce?

Guys ... this is just another perspective I am putting in front of you. I do not claim to know the true answer to the question - "Does US need higher level of immigration and why?". But an informed mind helps calm nerves.

Honestly, your post appeared more valuable to me than the reading from the original URL related to the article.

I really like this website, it comprises of people who are respectful to each other, make / share knowledgeable inputs. Thanks to you in particular, for coming up with this website.

[gcseeker]

Q

Your post was very well put. Economists do talk about the minimum replacement rate of 1% and growth rate of 2% as you mentioned. It is also true the growth of asia is being driven by the population rates of these countries where there is an huge population of youth in the age group of 18-35 and comparatively less elder population which needs to be taken care of. Japan on the other hand which has been stuck in a deflationary loop since the 90s has an huge elderly population. In fact it can be argued the economic boom of the Usa during the phase of 1960-1990 was based on the young baby boomer generation at that point.

Economics argues that young populations are the biggest consumers and in consumer driven economies this will lead to booming credit based economies.Now coming to the present day Usa ...the baby boomers will no longer be retiring at 2012 and will be retiring much later at 2020 .Before the recession there used to be articles periodically in the press which claimed once the boomers retired USA will require a large immigrant workforce to meet its needs.The recession wiped out a lot of jobs which are not coming back anytime soon and I no longer beleive so many immigrants would be required to meet those needs.

Also the two parties in Usa do not want to seriously take up immigration reform. The democrats appear to act like they want to reform the system ,but in reality all they want is the Latino vote share. That is the reason they keep on linking the Immigration reform for Tech professionals/Master's students with the comprehensive immigration reform primarily targetting the Latino's. The republican base is in no mood to even think about immigration reform at this point because they feel illegal immigrants are an burden on the system and they do not want to pay for any more people to come and stay.

Given the above scenarios of post recession job loss and anti immigration sentiment being present strongly ....I would not expect any bills reforming the system to be taken up before 2013.Not atleast in 2012 which is an election year and it would be a big IF even in 2013......Also the economy is due for one more crash since Mr Bernanke is busy blowing one more inflationary bubble and probably couple of years down the road it will again since the structural problems have not been eliminated.Anti immigration stand will be an convenient smoke screen for the powers to be to continue down the same road.

Also economic growth cycles shift from one empire to the other historically. Spain was a superpower with its conquest of the americas in the 16th and 17th century. Britain took over as an global power in the 18th and early 19th.With world war 2 the rise of America began and the new century belongs to India and China.Every estimate of the world bank shows the middle class in India will reach 50-60% share in the coming two decades.This in itself should clean up the LCD and also bring in prosperity :) .

[qesehmk]

GCseeker

Thanks. It is a fascinating topic. With respect to who will be the superpower in this century ... no doubt China will be there and sooner or later India too. Just like in stock markets there is something known as price discovery - the same thing will happen with India and China and their growth will accelerate further. However one of the thing that is preventing it today is the lack of certainty (political economic conflicts).

However there is a bitter truth too - Today's growth is fuelled by the mere fact that they are so down below there. They are playing in a space where nobody wants to play. But there will come a time when they will have to butt heads with competition from the west. eg. S Korea is already in that space with its companies like Samsung and Hyundai. Then it becomes really tough. The good news is ... their mere size becomes a competitive advantage.

I think that is where they will have to develop same or similar core competencies that US has if they wish to come to the same living standard. India clearly has significant advantage there. China with its communism .. God knows how it works today ..... will have some hiccups transitioning to an open society.

My uneducated 2 cents... as people sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for teh visa bulletin :)

[getgreensoon]

Q

Your post was very well put. Economists do talk about the minimum replacement rate of 1% and growth rate of 2% as you mentioned. It is also true the growth of asia is being driven by the population rates of these countries where there is an huge population of youth in the age group of 18-35 and comparatively less elder population which needs to be taken care of. Japan on the other hand which has been stuck in a deflationary loop since the 90s has an huge elderly population. In fact it can be argued the economic boom of the Usa during the phase of 1960-1990 was based on the young baby boomer generation at that point.

Economics argues that young populations are the biggest consumers and in consumer driven economies this will lead to booming credit based economies.Now coming to the present day Usa ...the baby boomers will no longer be retiring at 2012 and will be retiring much later at 2020 .Before the recession there used to be articles periodically in the press which claimed once the boomers retired USA will require a large immigrant workforce to meet its needs.The recession wiped out a lot of jobs which are not coming back anytime soon and I no longer beleive so many immigrants would be required to meet those needs.

Also the two parties in Usa do not want to seriously take up immigration reform. The democrats appear to act like they want to reform the system ,but in reality all they want is the Latino vote share. That is the reason they keep on linking the Immigration reform for Tech professionals/Master's students with the comprehensive immigration reform primarily targetting the Latino's. The republican base is in no mood to even think about immigration reform at this point because they feel illegal immigrants are an burden on the system and they do not want to pay for any more people to come and stay.

Given the above scenarios of post recession job loss and anti immigration sentiment being present strongly ....I would not expect any bills reforming the system to be taken up before 2013.Not atleast in 2012 which is an election year and it would be a big IF even in 2013......Also the economy is due for one more crash since Mr Bernanke is busy blowing one more inflationary bubble and probably couple of years down the road it will again since the structural problems have not been eliminated.Anti immigration stand will be an convenient smoke screen for the powers to be to continue down the same road.

Also economic growth cycles shift from one empire to the other historically. Spain was a superpower with its conquest of the americas in the 16th and 17th century. Britain took over as an global power in the 18th and early 19th.With world war 2 the rise of America began and the new century belongs to India and China.Every estimate of the world bank shows the middle class in India will reach 50-60% share in the coming two decades.This in itself should clean up the LCD and also bring in prosperity :) .

Very well put post. Developed world has a lot of issues today that developing world can learn from. For example Japan: Aptly said, Japan has high proportion of old population and this has resulted in into many imbalances in their system . The Japanese government has alway used the high savings rate in the Japanese society to fund its deficits. As long as the population was young, this worked well but now that people are using this money, the government is struggling with its deficits and finances. The deflationary spiral in Japan is also due to the way the society works and people's inclination to saving and not consuming (exactly opposite of the US). If you throw one million dollars in sombody's backyard and he does not spends it, there is no inflation.

Europe: What can be said: Southern Europe is stuggling with its own lavish life style on credit cards and loans from the northern brothers. Nothern brothers cannot kick out the southern slackers as their banks hold a lot of debt of southern states. A default could result in dominos greater in magnitude than Lehman Bros going under. So everything is in mess there.

China: A huge white elephant with immense people resources. Export driven economy but people reluctant to consume as much as westerners do for the same disposable income in PPP. A developing Japan. How long the currency pegging will help depends on how tolerant other developed nations are.

US: If you throw a million dollars in someone's backyard, they will borrow 2 million against it and the economy picks up very fast. This has not happened this timearound though. Babyboomers getting old, but a lot of non value added jobs are vanishing too. Count the number of realtor now vs. a few years ago. Construction now counts 2% of GDP vs 20% a few years ago. The entire world is ready to migrate to the US, if they need it. As such no scarcity of manpower. Very sophisticated financial markets and business environment. Still by far the best overall. Innovation engine of the world.

India: What to say about it. Very large aspiring population. People not reluctant to spend. New generation needs money to spend and not to save a whole lot. Open markets, judicial system smiliar to a lot of western countries (if it works), convertable currency, very less currency manipulation, democratic government (and ability to dismantle the government by people), free press (have you seen anything against the govt of China in their press ?) open any daily in india and you will see how strong the press is.
Lacks in debt markets and sophistication of financial markets. This impacts growth and innovation. Overall has great potential to emerge as a strong rival to china.

[gcseeker]

Getgreensoon

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and explaining some of the things in a more detailed way. I agree with all of them,just differ on some thoughts regarding the future of the USA. Right now USA is neck deep in debt and the only thing backing that debt is the universal currency status of the greenback.I know conspiracy theorists have been going gaga on internet forums for maybe the past decade predicting the demise of the greenback but it has not happenned so far.

Right now we have an potent cocktail mix of high debt ,slow growth , globalization and fundamental structural weakness in the US economy.There is something wrong with an economy where wallstreet driven casino markets are now accounting for 10-20% of service sector GDP. The proportion of actual goods being produced by this country has been steadily decreasing with most manufacturing having shifted overseas.
( 2010 GDP by composition for the Usa gives 76% to the services sector )
India in general and the BRICS countries in general do not have the same level of speculation driven share markets.Also these countries might be able to leapfrog the massive industralization phase and go straight to the service providing phase. For eg: Indian markets might adopt the tablets in a bigger way rather than adopt laptops . Electric cars also might make a big headway with most of the country making an leapfrog from two wheelers straight to EV vehicles.

Also as shown recently in the "Waiting for superman" movie education is really lagging in this country at the primary and secondary levels compared to even developing countries. Many children are not taking up hard sciences and the brightest and best out of Harvard and Yale are using their talents to maximize the profits of financial companies on wall street.

Also the most telling statistic is this. VC funding for silicon valley startups has dropped 81% in 2009.All of it has shifted to beijing and bangalore
source (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/techchron/detail?entry_id=49380)

Similar were the stories in 2010..clean tech sectors saw an slight upturn compared to 2009 but none of the VC funding levels have returned to anything close to pre 2007.These drops cannot be just explained away with the great recession II ...they are much more fundamental in nature.

It is just my personal opinion that USA will not be able to hold onto the mantle of an superpower by the end of this decade. The greenback also has been steadily eroding trading nowadays at 43 INR .The Australian dollar today trades at 48INR .Historically 10 years back the AUD used to trade at 33 INR.There have been a lot of articles which now say the decline of the dollar is imminent .

Sorry for rambling all over the place. I beleive all these factors combined will force the politicans of USA to be even more exclusivist in nature and they will take recourse to short sighted measures to protect the jobs of the local populace by not increasing immigration quotas.





Very well put post. Developed world has a lot of issues today that developing world can learn from. For example Japan: Aptly said, Japan has high proportion of old population and this has resulted in into many imbalances in their system . The Japanese government has alway used the high savings rate in the Japanese society to fund its deficits. As long as the population was young, this worked well but now that people are using this money, the government is struggling with its deficits and finances. The deflationary spiral in Japan is also due to the way the society works and people's inclination to saving and not consuming (exactly opposite of the US). If you throw one million dollars in sombody's backyard and he does not spends it, there is no inflation.

Europe: What can be said: Southern Europe is stuggling with its own lavish life style on credit cards and loans from the northern brothers. Nothern brothers cannot kick out the southern slackers as their banks hold a lot of debt of southern states. A default could result in dominos greater in magnitude than Lehman Bros going under. So everything is in mess there.

China: A huge white elephant with immense people resources. Export driven economy but people reluctant to consume as much as westerners do for the same disposable income in PPP. A developing Japan. How long the currency pegging will help depends on how tolerant other developed nations are.

US: If you throw a million dollars in someone's backyard, they will borrow 2 million against it and the economy picks up very fast. This has not happened this timearound though. Babyboomers getting old, but a lot of non value added jobs are vanishing too. Count the number of realtor now vs. a few years ago. Construction now counts 2% of GDP vs 20% a few years ago. The entire world is ready to migrate to the US, if they need it. As such no scarcity of manpower. Very sophisticated financial markets and business environment. Still by far the best overall. Innovation engine of the world.

India: What to say about it. Very large aspiring population. People not reluctant to spend. New generation needs money to spend and not to save a whole lot. Open markets, judicial system smiliar to a lot of western countries (if it works), convertable currency, very less currency manipulation, democratic government (and ability to dismantle the government by people), free press (have you seen anything against the govt of China in their press ?) open any daily in india and you will see how strong the press is.
Lacks in debt markets and sophistication of financial markets. This impacts growth and innovation. Overall has great potential to emerge as a strong rival to china.

[bieber]

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[qesehmk]

I agree w you. And remember H1 or GC by definition is meant where they can't find workers!

As per bringing back lost jobs etc .... I think there are conflicting objectives that various constituencies want. And over time government is now controllled by very small special interests which is making it difficult to keep sanity to the policy. A sane policy would be to let dollar devalue and let manufacturing pickup. But that economic policy is not supported by foreign policy objectives ... which dictates the need for a strong dollar.

p.s. - I am not an expert by any mean. Just a few uneducated thoughts really.




Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[bieber]

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion' :)

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one :)

[qesehmk]

Wouldn't that shoot interest rates and weaken dollar?


Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion' :)

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one :)

[gcseeker]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[qesehmk]

You are right. The only people who can make it happen (although the time is NOT ripe yet) are Corporations. People like Bill Gates have openly said that anybody should be allowed to work in US as long as there is a company to hire that person. No need for quotas.


Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[bieber]

Wouldn't that shoot interest rates and weaken dollar?

dollar will not go weak because of no more printing and euro crisis. discount window funds rate can stay at .25 and interest rate movement will not impact the dollar.
if there is no growth in second half as anticipited, obama will be the 1 time president according to his own logic

[geterdone]

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf

[dreamer]

Very interesting testimonial, thanks for sharing!


nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf

[geterdone]

Do you know what will happen after todays testimony? how long or what is the future of this? if they will listen to the three things that Bob stressed towards the end it will be a miracle, but miracles do happen.

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf
That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!

[soggadu]

Very interesting testimonial, thanks for sharing!

yes indeed... he got my vote when he mentioned the 2 point... dealing with legal and illegal immigration differently... for an average american immigration is always about illegal immigrants... thank you geterdone ( ur username is quite interesting ;-) ...)

[geterdone]

don't misunderstand my username---- it's from larry the cable guy......sorry for increasing the noise to signal ratio

[sha_kus]

I saw this testimony on C-Span. It looked like everybody did well in showing how much pain the indian and chinese waiting for green card. Ronil Hira was the only guy who looked anti-immigration.



nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf

[soggadu]

Do you know what will happen after todays testimony? how long or what is the future of this? if they will listen to the three things that Bob stressed towards the end it will be a miracle, but miracles do happen.

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf
That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!

What will happen is a million dollar question... testimonies like these have been given by so many including Bill the gates... these are mainly for bringing the awareness in the public and help the subcommittee to frame the bill... there have been sub committees like this before and there will be some going forward... but one thing is sure... Immigration reform should happen without bundling legals with illegals...

[natvyas]

I saw this testimony on C-Span. It looked like everybody did well in showing how much pain the indian and chinese waiting for green card. Ronil Hira and Brad smith where the only people who looked anti-immigration.

Correction Brad Smith was pro-legal immigration. He is from Microsoft and infact Sen. Sessions had a "go" at him.

[sha_kus]

Sorry .. I don't know why i wrote his name.. corrected pls..


Correction Brad Smith was pro-legal immigration. He is from Microsoft and infact Sen. Sessions had a "go" at him.

[vizcard]

As Obama put it "I need a dance partner on immigration".

Too many "head winds" here - 9+% unemployment (which is irrelevant but its all about politics), split Congress (which I feel will continue even after the next Congressional elections), etc.

In any case, nothing will happen on CIR till after the elections..... and that too IF Obama gets re-elected. Republicans are historically anti-immigration

[qesehmk]

Do you know what will happen after todays testimony? how long or what is the future of this? if they will listen to the three things that Bob stressed towards the end it will be a miracle, but miracles do happen.

None of us know. But given that the presidential election season has just started, I would bet ... nothing happens there.


don't misunderstand my username---- it's from larry the cable guy......sorry for increasing the noise to signal ratio
I have heard it from my white colleagues with southern roots. They usually pronounce it "git-er-dun"!

[soggadu]

As Obama put it "I need a dance partner on immigration".

Too many "head winds" here - 9+% unemployment (which is irrelevant but its all about politics), split Congress (which I feel will continue even after the next Congressional elections), etc.

In any case, nothing will happen on CIR till after the elections..... and that too IF Obama gets re-elected. Republicans are historically anti-immigration

I dont agree that Republicans are anti immigrants... please understand the difference in opinion... anti illegal immigration is not anti immigration on the whole... when i talk to tea baggers, it really puzzles me that people at the grass root are so not aware of the plight of the legal immigrants... and they are pro legal immigration... I see a lot of rep senators introduce bills for helping legal immigration...but Dem's on the other hand are using the card w.r.t illegals and trying to gain mileage....

[natvyas]

As Obama put it "I need a dance partner on immigration".

Too many "head winds" here - 9+% unemployment (which is irrelevant but its all about politics), split Congress (which I feel will continue even after the next Congressional elections), etc.

In any case, nothing will happen on CIR till after the elections..... and that too IF Obama gets re-elected. Republicans are historically anti-immigration

The stats that someone mentioned in the Senate Judiciary committee on unemployment are as follows : -

Unemployment rate for people with Bachelors Degree around 4.5%
Unemployment rate for people WITHOUT Bachelors Degree around 10%

[qesehmk]

Republicans are historically anti-immigration
That's true. Lets not pretend otherwise. There is a very strong anti-progressive, anti-minorities, anti-multicultural streak within republican party. And don't be fooled with the northern lincoln republicans with today's southern republicans. Over time northern republicans turned into what are today's democrats and souther democrats turned into republicans. So its not very hard to see where all the anti-immigrant sentiment is coming from.


anti illegal immigration is not anti immigration on the whole...
while broadstroke statement is always difficult to agree. .... in general illegal immigration is just a fake front in my opinion. An anti-illegal-immigration person more often than not is anti-immigration. Its just they say it a bit carefully. So don't be fooled by appearances.

There is a terrific statement by pastor Martin Niemoller (from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came%E2%80%A6)) about the Nazi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism) rise to power and the purging of their chosen targets, group after group.

First they came for the communists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unionist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

[Monica12]

That's true. Lets not pretend otherwise. There is a very strong anti-progressive, anti-minorities, anti-multicultural streak within republican party. And don't be fooled with the northern lincoln republicans with today's southern republicans. Over time northern republicans turned into what are today's democrats and souther democrats turned into republicans. So its not very hard to see where all the anti-immigrant sentiment is coming from.


while broadstroke statement is always difficult to agree. .... in general illegal immigration is just a fake front in my opinion. An anti-illegal-immigration person more often than not is anti-immigration. Its just they say it a bit carefully. So don't be fooled by appearances.

There is a terrific statement by pastor Martin Niemoller (from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came%E2%80%A6)) about the Nazi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism) rise to power and the purging of their chosen targets, group after group.

First they came for the communists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unionist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Wow ! GREAT one Q. This is so true...

[Spectator]

That's true. Lets not pretend otherwise. There is a very strong anti-progressive, anti-minorities, anti-multicultural streak within republican party. And don't be fooled with the northern lincoln republicans with today's southern republicans. Over time northern republicans turned into what are today's democrats and souther democrats turned into republicans. So its not very hard to see where all the anti-immigrant sentiment is coming from.


while broadstroke statement is always difficult to agree. .... in general illegal immigration is just a fake front in my opinion. An anti-illegal-immigration person more often than not is anti-immigration. Its just they say it a bit carefully. So don't be fooled by appearances.

There is a terrific statement by pastor Martin Niemoller (from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came%E2%80%A6)) about the Nazi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism) rise to power and the purging of their chosen targets, group after group.

First they came for the communists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unionist),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews),
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.
Q,

One of my favorites too.

Unfortunately the same is true within the would be immigrant community.

We have all seen the anti porting, anti EB1C or anti DV sentiments in various fora. Everyone seems to be trying to change the immigration system to benefit themselves.

Whilst controversial, the same is true of calls to abolish per Country limits. It seeks to allocate more of the SAME numbers of visas to one group, whilst disadvantaging another group.

It cannot be the answer and only creates divisiveness within the immigrant community.

Even recapturing visas is no long term solution - all it does it get most of the people currently in the queue out of it. It doesn't address the fact that future applicants will have exactly the same problem. Perhaps people just don't care about that. More "crab mentality".

Personally, if we all had to support one measure, I would choose not counting dependents against the numerical limits. It raise the effective number of visas to 315,000 without the headline figure of 140,000 being changed. That makes it something that could get passed. It certainly has been proposed as part of various Bills. I think H.R. 2161 contains it from memory.

It is a measure that gives an advantage to EVERY person in the immigrant queue, whether now or in the future. It is a proposal that ALL immigrants could support and lobby for under a common banner. That would be very powerful.

With the equivalent of 315,000 visas available every year, spillover would rise from around 25k to 200k per year.

It would become totally irrelevant whether per Country limits exist or not and the arguments either for or against them - there would be sufficient visa numbers for everyone.

Call me naive, but it makes sense to me. Don't flame me - nor will I debate that view.

Feel free to add your own solutions that benefit EVERYBODY.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks for moving it here. Its better that we don't hog the bandwidth of teh other thread!

I absolutely like the provision of not counting dependents. I do think that's my most favorite provision. I also think that giving a GC to american graduates with a job offer in hand makes a lot of sense.

I do think that doing away with country quota is equitable and trust me I would've said the same even if I was from Madagascar! The reason being it is equitable and it is useful for economy. It doesn't hurt ROW because then everybody becomes FIFO (at least within EB2 and EB3 and so on if not across categories).

I do like recapture since that will bring so much required relief to EB3.

But at the end of the day - I think we need to understand that immigration is not a right its a privilege. Some of the political opposition is understandable. But sometimes it turns outright nasty and I think one is going to face thoes kind of people regardless you become GC holder or citizen. Even after you die your children are going to face some racism and discrimination (and to your point I do concede that many of us are also guilty of the same things ... only in different context). But one must take a stance and choose sides as per your own judgement. Right?


Q,

One of my favorites too.

Unfortunately the same is true within the would be immigrant community.

We have all seen the anti porting, anti EB1C or anti DV sentiments in various fora. Everyone seems to be trying to change the immigration system to benefit themselves.

Whilst controversial, the same is true of calls to abolish per Country limits. It seeks to allocate more of the SAME numbers of visas to one group, whilst disadvantaging another group.

It cannot be the answer and only creates divisiveness within the immigrant community.

Even recapturing visas is no long term solution - all it does it get most of the people currently in the queue out of it. It doesn't address the fact that future applicants will have exactly the same problem. Perhaps people just don't care about that. More "crab mentality".

Personally, if we all had to support one measure, I would choose not counting dependents against the numerical limits. It raise the effective number of visas to 315,000 without the headline figure of 140,000 being changed. That makes it something that could get passed. It certainly has been proposed as part of various Bills. I think H.R. 2161 contains it from memory.

It is a measure that gives an advantage to EVERY person in the immigrant queue, whether now or in the future. It is a proposal that ALL immigrants could support and lobby for under a common banner. That would be very powerful.

With the equivalent of 315,000 visas available every year, spillover would rise from around 25k to 200k per year.

It would become totally irrelevant whether per Country limits exist or not and the arguments either for or against them - there would be sufficient visa numbers for everyone.

Call me naive, but it makes sense to me. Don't flame me - nor will I debate that view.

Feel free to add your own solutions that benefit EVERYBODY.

[nishant2200]

I agree with you. I also think the idea of visa recapture is correct, it has been done in the past for nurses.

1. So Visa Recapture will eliminate current backlog.
2. Strict enforcement of laws and scrutiny for fraud, combined with the not counting dependents for visa numbers will make future backlogs very much smaller if any.


Q,

One of my favorites too.

Unfortunately the same is true within the would be immigrant community.

We have all seen the anti porting, anti EB1C or anti DV sentiments in various fora. Everyone seems to be trying to change the immigration system to benefit themselves.

Whilst controversial, the same is true of calls to abolish per Country limits. It seeks to allocate more of the SAME numbers of visas to one group, whilst disadvantaging another group.

It cannot be the answer and only creates divisiveness within the immigrant community.

Even recapturing visas is no long term solution - all it does it get most of the people currently in the queue out of it. It doesn't address the fact that future applicants will have exactly the same problem. Perhaps people just don't care about that. More "crab mentality".

Personally, if we all had to support one measure, I would choose not counting dependents against the numerical limits. It raise the effective number of visas to 315,000 without the headline figure of 140,000 being changed. That makes it something that could get passed. It certainly has been proposed as part of various Bills. I think H.R. 2161 contains it from memory.

It is a measure that gives an advantage to EVERY person in the immigrant queue, whether now or in the future. It is a proposal that ALL immigrants could support and lobby for under a common banner. That would be very powerful.

With the equivalent of 315,000 visas available every year, spillover would rise from around 25k to 200k per year.

It would become totally irrelevant whether per Country limits exist or not and the arguments either for or against them - there would be sufficient visa numbers for everyone.

Call me naive, but it makes sense to me. Don't flame me - nor will I debate that view.

Feel free to add your own solutions that benefit EVERYBODY.

[skpanda]

I have moved the discussion about the Senate Committee Testimony to the General Immigration Discussion http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion

Just in case anybody is interested to hear the entire hearing ... here is the video link:

http://www.senate.gov/fplayers/CommPlayer/commFlashPlayer.cfm?fn=judiciary072611&st=xxx

All other Testimonies can be found at:

http://judiciary.senate.gov/hearings/hearing.cfm?id=3d9031b47812de2592c3baeba62beeb0

There seems to be lot of awareness on GC backlog and most people agree that High Skilled Immigration reform should happen irrespective of CIR (comprehensive immigration reform). There is good mention of the removal of 7% country cap by multiple panel members.

Dr. Ronil Hira seems to be the only person who had some negative sentiments and made baseless and stupid allegations such as L1 foriegn nationals get paid 10K per year. Its so absurd that I laughed at the level of stupidity some people have. Moreover, i think this hearing was for Immigration (GCs) and not non-immigrant visas like H1/L1.

Its good that Immigration community is recognized and representative was included in the panel. We should also thank IV for achieving this recognition on behalf of our entire immigrant community.

PS:
1. Dr. Aurora is a Vice President of IV. I have nothing to do with him nor am I doing publicity for IV here.
2. Dr. Ronil Hira is a 1st generation American (i think). If his parents were not allowed to immigrate to US, he would not be sitting in that panel. For some reason he fails to appreciates that and is anti immigration. It is in everybody's interest if the loopholes in the visa programmes are fixed, Fraud is scrutinized. However making baseless and stupid allegations just to garner attention is unethical and does not help US.

[ssvp22]

I think the 7% quota per country should be abolished. If there is no per country quota while you are getting H1-B/L1, why is there a quota when you are in line for GC. Not having a quota at the time of H1/L1 sets false expectations for immigrants. Same thing for counting visa numbers of spouse and children. If you are not counting them at the time of H1-B or L1, why at the time of GC. Whichever way US twists the words, i find no justification for this.

[ssvp22]

Dr. Ronil Hira seems to be the only person who had some negative sentiments and made baseless and stupid allegations such as L1 foriegn nationals get paid 10K per year. Its so absurd that I laughed at the level of stupidity some people have. Moreover, i think this hearing was for Immigration (GCs) and not non-immigrant visas like H1/L1.

I guess they need to do a sanity check of folks being brought into these hearings.

[gcq]

I guess they need to do a sanity check of folks being brought into these hearings.
Grassley might have brought Ron Hira the anti-immigrant. It is good that Charles Shcumer gave him the last chance with the statement "last but not least". At some point Grassley himself asked Ron not to speak against microsoft.

[qesehmk]

Dr. Ronil Hira seems to be the only person who had some negative sentiments and made baseless and stupid allegations such as L1 foriegn nationals get paid 10K per year. Its so absurd that I laughed at the level of stupidity some people have. Moreover, i think this hearing was for Immigration (GCs) and not non-immigrant visas like H1/L1.

...
Dr. Ronil Hira is a 1st generation American (i think). If his parents were not allowed to immigrate to US, he would not be sitting in that panel. For some reason he fails to appreciates that and is anti immigration. It is in everybody's interest if the loopholes in the visa programmes are fixed, Fraud is scrutinized. However making baseless and stupid allegations just to garner attention is unethical and does not help US.
Thanks skpanda. Its amusing to see this person (obviously of Indian descent) mount such foolish opposition. Fortunately the tailwinds for globalization are far stronger than these people with narrow world view. Globalization is not just about capital, its also about labor, products, lifestyle, culture and politics. Who cares what this guy thinks. Different people make different career choices. This seems to be his career choice and claim to fame.

[zenmaster]

Many a times when filing 2nd I-140(or porting), lawyers/us forget to mention the A-Number from the 1st 140 approval notice.
I think that is the main reason, the PD is not copied to the new 140 approval.
Another confusion is about the A number received in the EAD card on OPT/ 485 filing.

I found some good info regarding the A-Number here (http://www.laborimmigration.com/2008/06/the-a-number-explained/) and thought of sharing with you all.
Hope this helps people filing multiple 140s like me....
A-Number Explained :

We have all heard or seen references to the “A Number.” Many USCIS forms ask for it, and many of our clients have asked us, “What exactly is the ‘A Number’?”

The “A Number” stands for Alien Registration Number. It is a number that starts with an “A” followed by eight-digits. Not all foreign nationals have an A Number. Most people get A Number when they apply for adjustment of status, seek employment authorization document (EAD), apply for a V visa or are subject to deportation proceedings.

There are four separate kinds of A Numbers:

Eight-digit A Numbers are manually assigned at local offices. If you have one of these numbers, simply treated it as if it was “0″ plus the number;
Nine-digit A Numbers that start with the digit 1 are used for employment authorization cards, usually related to students;
Nine-digit A Numbers that start with the digit 3 are used for fingerprint tracking of V visa applicants;
All other nine-digit A Numbers are permanent A Numbers and remain permanently with you for life.

Many USCIS forms ask for the A Number and we have advised our clients to enter “NONE” if they have not been issued one yet. However, if you have an A Number, it is important to enter it on any USCIS forms.

[neospeed]

How can you justify a person of Monaco (0.7 sq miles) origin getting a gc in six months where as folks from I/C getting in 5 to 6 years ?. It should be atleast based on country population size. We already have diversity lottery to accomidate the diversity factor. I dont think ROW will wait for 5 to 6 years for there GC, all the countries gc wait time will be reduced to 2 to 3 years when country limit is removed.

[stillanoptimist]

Spec, Q - thanks for your response.
Firstly - forget my first post (which is deleted anyway). Its a new day.
I have been a "Guest" here for almost 4 months, and well aware of Specs calculations, so on hindsight would not have preferred to start with that as the first post. But honestly I could not interpret Specs comments (even here) as anything other than saying that per-country limits are OK and that something else should be the solution. Hence the outburst.
Whether there will be one provision that is beneficial or multiple ones, only time and political appetite will tell. Beggers cannot be choosers. According to me, no single relief measure, even if implemented alone, can and should be ruled out. It will probably be a stepping stone to overall/large-scale relief.The way I look at it, per-country limits only rectifies a wrong and if a particular group(s) such as ROW that have benefited from the imbalance so far have to face an even playing field and wait along with the entire EB community, I think thats fair game. My colleagues here from Bangladesh agree with that and shake their head whenever they hear my GC story. The understand the perspective, having started in this company with me together 6 years ago and having come to the US, at the same time 9 years ago.
Frankly, I am with anyone who can push ANYTHING through. COngrats to our friends with PD in 2007, who see light at the end of the tunnel. But honestly for folks with 2008 PDs and beyond, its an excruciating wait without even being able to file for I485/EAD/AP.
I look forward to seeing your continued good work here..but only hope its on calculations dealing with smaller backlogs and wait times for everyone :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends following is a link from WAJ related to the congressional testimony about Green cards and per country limits. Iam posting for everyone’s benefit.
http://online.wsj.com/video/opinion-journal-work-visa-caps-handicap-growth/E2F83BE0-0DD2-4928-B525-472683FC308C.html

[natvyas]

If companies are hiring like 1999,

the unemployment rate won't stay at 9% level, even more specific to our EB the h1b quota should have been already exhausted.

yes, IT sector hiring may be better than other sectors (i haven't read the article you suggested yet) but my statement was just on overall economy and I re-presented it, not derived :)

Beiber

stats suggest that unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree is around 4.6% and the same of people with High Schoool degree and lower is around 10.2%

This explains why the PERM filings continue to remain high

[bieber]

Beiber

stats suggest that unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree is around 4.6% and the same of people with High Schoool degree and lower is around 10.2%

This explains why the PERM filings continue to remain high

Natvyas,
Unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree was around 2% in 1999 and 2006-2008, so 4.6 or ~5% is highest since atleast 1992.

I'm no way trying to create a linear equation between unemployment rate and number of perms, but in general the overall unemployment camedown from 10% to 8.6% during 2009 to 2011 and now reversing and stayed at 9.2%, so my point is if this trend continues the perm will repeat the 2009

[rahil1]

Natvyas,
Unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree was around 2% in 1999 and 2006-2008, so 4.6 or ~5% is highest since atleast 1992.

I'm no way trying to create a linear equation between unemployment rate and number of perms, but in general the overall unemployment camedown from 10% to 8.6% during 2009 to 2011 and now reversing and stayed at 9.2%, so my point is if this trend continues the perm will repeat the 2009

I think we should not be too concerned about unemployment rate. It doesn;t mean much. The unemployment for people in IT is 3.5 which means.. no unemployment

[gcseeker]

I think there will be an strong correlation due to two things.

1.Tech has enjoyed an rebound(mid 2009) and effective unemployment rate of 4.5%-3.5% thanks to the false sense of security injected by the first round of stimulus.There will be no more stimulus (thanks to the debt deal that was cut ) ....so now things will go back to the true normal and we might see an uptick in that figure.Good examples of the above will be the recent layoffs at networking companies like Cisco and Juniper which are hit hard by cutting down spending in government equipment.

Moving forward I would expect PERM filings to come down to 2009 levels in 2012.Even though it is an election year...bama will not be able to salvage the economy.

2.People jumping to new jobs in 2009 and 2010 were asked by major companies to wait for an year before PERM could be filed.Even for recapture of PD PERM is required and it was common policy at most places since they had layoffs to wait for an year before PERM could be filed. This could account for the correlation factor with some delay thrown in.....

The economy is on a roller coaster ride and a double dip is not ruled out ..at best it might be stagflation combined with growth recession(high unemployment mixed with inflation and slow growth ) .The effects of the stimulus are wearing down and there will be a few jitters ,shakeouts and layoffs at firms. All these will contribute to delay in PERM filings.

I do not know what the Sep VB will bring and have no expectations too...but one thing am damn sure about is that the economy is not getting better. It is a false event horizon or as it has become popular to say...there is an black swan event lurking around the corner.


if you plot the perm numbers from my previous post and compare it with DOW, you will be amazed with the corelation (just an observation)

[ssvp22]

recent layoffs at networking companies like Cisco
Cisco layoffs are due to the crappy products they make that people dont want to buy.

[jackbrown_890]

Cisco layoffs are due to the crappy products they make that people dont want to buy.

I agree with you on Cisco layoffs but it seems like overall trend of crappy job recovery is at its bottom. Job market is correcting itself. If nothing goes wrong in next few months, the real job recovery should start soon in next few months. and there is possibility this Friday job report may not be good. I am hoping the weekly unemployment will stay close to 400,000 for next 3-4 weeks and thn come down 20-30000 below that number from September. If that happens EB2 ROW filing will go higher in 2012 and so less SOFAD for I/C.

[ssvp22]

I agree with you on Cisco layoffs but it seems like overall trend of crappy job recovery is at its bottom. Job market is correcting itself. If nothing goes wrong in next few months, the real job recovery should start soon in next few months. and there is possibility this Friday job report may not be good. I am hoping the weekly unemployment will stay close to 400,000 for next 3-4 weeks and thn come down 20-30000 below that number from September. If that happens EB2 ROW filing will go higher in 2012 and so less SOFAD for I/C.
Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[mesan123]

ssvp22 ....do you feel there is another recession ahead of us ... :(


Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[qesehmk]

Think of Groupon!! They didn't take the google offer and now you see every TDH offering deals on the internet.


Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[jackbrown_890]

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.


Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[kolugc]

Some positive notes

Hiring Like It's 1999
The tech boom is fueling a surge in jobs and creative recruiting

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/hiring-like-its-1999-08012011.html

[haripathhi]

JB,

I liked your analogy here and I must admit this cracked me up big time. Maybe "Rupa Underwear & Banian" company should think of setting up their offices in the US in near future...lol...Good One!

On that note a lil humor here...No offense to anyone

"Agar Rupa ki underwear/banian koi pehenega to Rupa kya pehenegi?"...:)

Sorry ppl if I offended anyone with that one.


Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.

[ssvp22]

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.

Only issue is that regional recovery in US is lead by companies like Zynga, Facebook, and Groupon. I dont believe that virtual farming or connecting with friends or group coupons are going to solve the current problems which are really arising out dated and aging workforce. The companies do add value, but just a delta as compared to companies founded in 1990s, like Google. I dont imagine any impact of people's lives if Zynga, Facebook or Groupon were to shutdown today. Whereas you can live without Google.

I my view, there is always a constant struggle between good and evil. And one good day of evil can do years of harm - example Lehman bankruptcy. And in case of India, it is corruption, which wins every day.

[qesehmk]

nishant

Labor sustitution was just like EB1C. Was there misuse? Probably. But that doesn't mean a good program should be shut down. Labor substitution allowed many companies to avoid years of wait on labor approvals. In 2007 (rather 2005) PERM came in with the promise that labor times would be made real time - literrally 60 days. So yes that time it made sense that labor substitution is redundant. But now look ... PERM approval times have varied greatly in last couple of years. So now it doesnt look such a good idea to do away with labor substitution.


Gotcha:

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_procha.html

Uscis did this in July 2007 for GC PERM too, trying to prevent a big bodyshop labor trading loophole, IMHO

[gcseeker]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jonbruner/files/2011/07/tech-boom-bubble.jpg

Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/job-growth-slows-and-layoffs-rise-to-16-month-high-reports-say.html

Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

P.S Please move my post to the general section if you feel it will divert attention from the numbers

[soggadu]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/job-growth-slows-and-layoffs-rise-to-16-month-high-reports-say.html

Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

Seeker bhai... they were all pointing that IT job market is ek dum zabardast... the overall job market is anyway down... it also looks like Job market for people with bachelors and more is good according to all the old posts...

[grnwtg]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/job-growth-slows-and-layoffs-rise-to-16-month-high-reports-say.html


Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

I guess above posters are talking about job market among tech community and mostly people who have finished 4yr degree/Post-Degree/Phd

and also unemployment for that is around 4.5 and most of probably some of them are just taking break ( since they get unemployment income).
Thought i wont say that this market is also red hot but market is not very bad unlike in 2002/2003 which i consider worst market.

[bieber]

Soggadu

4.6% is better compared to 9.2% but it should be compared with 2.2% avg,

for starters, when the overall unemployment avgs at 5% the Bachelor degree holders are at around 2%.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker ... I do agree that job market will remain ugly and possibly become even uglier. Also agree that some of the social media companies are questionable. No doubt about that.

However there are 2 things that make this time around less of a bubble.
1) There is far less money chasing these companies than in 1999.
2) The tech companies of today are not really tech companies (the ones we are talking - groupon or linkedin etc). They are legitimate business models backed by technology. Contrast this companies from 1999 when the companies were engaged in creating new technology i.e. a language, a platform, a database, a protocol etc. etc. Then the technology itself was so fluid and so the companies were creating technology without a clear understanding of how it will play in the market. There was tremendous lack of clarity about the technology itself. Today the technology building blocks are well in place. And people are trying to build literrally applications using those blocks. This makes is much more viable and less risky.





...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

...
The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

P.S Please move my post to the general section if you feel it will divert attention from the numbers

[soggadu]

Soggadu

4.6% is better compared to 9.2% but it should be compared with 2.2% avg,

for starters, when the overall unemployment avgs at 5% the Bachelor degree holders are at around 2%.

I guess it is standing good against the national averages... so what i meant is we cant really go gaga over national averages and we will still see a lot of perm apps coming in this year and next year...

2.2 vs 5
4.6 vs 9.2

[nishant2200]

Very good point Q. I now see the "noble" intention behind the flexibility. It's just that bodyshops or big Indian IT services firms have always managed to find something to suit them in this, and kind of defeated the original noble intention. It's a testimony to US being fair in laws, that they don't openly outlaw certain practices or companies, but try to put band-aids like this :)



nishant

Labor sustitution was just like EB1C. Was there misuse? Probably. But that doesn't mean a good program should be shut down. Labor substitution allowed many companies to avoid years of wait on labor approvals. In 2007 (rather 2005) PERM came in with the promise that labor times would be made real time - literrally 60 days. So yes that time it made sense that labor substitution is redundant. But now look ... PERM approval times have varied greatly in last couple of years. So now it doesnt look such a good idea to do away with labor substitution.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.


Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :).

[leo07]

I agree in theory. But it could take a while...to approach mean. I really really don't want to wait until it's proven in our case:)



Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

[soggadu]

I agree in theory. But it could take a while...to approach mean. I really really don't want to wait until it's proven in our case:)

dont be so mean leo!!!...let the model approach the mean... ;-)

[soggadu]

What Nishant you are giving proxy to Soggadu :-)

teacher cant give proxy to student JJ ben... laws of proxy calling doesnt work that way ;-)....

N bhai...i like 22 in ur name...my b'day...my pd... all come on 22... :-)

[bieber]

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.
Markets stay irrational longer than u can stay solvant :) (just in the light of market action today)

[soggadu]

Markets stay irrational longer than u can stay solvant :) (just in the light of market action today)

Big B... what happened to the markets today...i know very offtopic, but in couple of lines...can you please tell me where the market is heading... ya, Q will anyway move this discussion :-)...



Heyyy...also did u guys notice this...we have visitors from all parts on the world...you can look at the map below .... 2 from africa too... 1 SouthA and 1 NA... wow.... this is globalization at its best i guess...

[bieber]

Soggadu

markets never fell so much in one day since the crisis, Europe crisis, US economy being the reasons, u may see Italy in place of Greece very soon infact may be tomorrow

[soggadu]

Soggadu

markets never fell so much in one day since the crisis, Europe crisis, US economy being the reasons, u may see Italy in place of Greece very soon infact may be tomorrow

Wow.... but it really misses my lay man mind, how italy going default is making our markets take a dump... it shld hv been effected a little but 500+ is a lot...might be nervousness ehh?

[jackbrown_890]

JB,

I liked your analogy here and I must admit this cracked me up big time. Maybe "Rupa Underwear & Banian" company should think of setting up their offices in the US in near future...lol...Good One!

On that note a lil humor here...No offense to anyone

"Agar Rupa ki underwear/banian koi pehenega to Rupa kya pehenegi?"...:)

Sorry ppl if I offended anyone with that one.

I don't think you have offended anyone. It was a good joke. I am sure guys are not offended. They don't want Rupa to wear any "banian"(underwear). Lol.
Sorry now if I offended someone.
But my point was in good times underwear sales don't change much but in bad times it goes down considerably because that is not the first thing people want to spend money on. Most of the people will keep wearing old ones as long as they can or in the end untill they need the new one. (Underwear is just a small part of real retail sector). So if that happens, now the economy depends on "need" than "want". And when there is demand increase based on "need" instead of "want", it is a true recovery instead of bubble. Demands created based on "want" is false demand. Sometimes it does work but it is not working for this recession/recovery with some stimulus money. But we should start seeing actual retail demand increase in next few months and eventually (theoretically) retail sector should lead the recovery of other sectors.
The stock sell off was definitely bad news but hopefully it is just a temporary panic because of some bad (hitting bottom) indicators. I am really hoping this theory will work and if it does we should start seeing results in month or two. If it does not we should have good amount of SOFAD in even 2012 spillover season.

[gcseeker]

Jack

This theory does not work when the whole world has borrowed from every possible corner and there are no real manufacturing jobs in the Usa . Ultimately every person laid off is an consumer of some other company. House prices are no longer what they used to be ,so the savings nests are all gone. Now the Government also cannot pump money artifically via the printing presses due to the debt deal that was just concluded.

You first heard it here.We will have significant SOFAD in 2012. This depression is here to stay.


I don't think you have offended anyone. It was a good joke. I am sure guys are not offended. They don't want Rupa to wear any "banian"(underwear). Lol.
Sorry now if I offended someone.
But my point was in good times underwear sales don't change much but in bad times it goes down considerably because that is not the first thing people want to spend money on. Most of the people will keep wearing old ones as long as they can or in the end untill they need the new one. (Underwear is just a small part of real retail sector). So if that happens, now the economy depends on "need" than "want". And when there is demand increase based on "need" instead of "want", it is a true recovery instead of bubble. Demands created based on "want" is false demand. Sometimes it does work but it is not working for this recession/recovery with some stimulus money. But we should start seeing actual retail demand increase in next few months and eventually (theoretically) retail sector should lead the recovery of other sectors.
The stock sell off was definitely bad news but hopefully it is just a temporary panic because of some bad (hitting bottom) indicators. I am really hoping this theory will work and if it does we should start seeing results in month or two. If it does not we should have good amount of SOFAD in even 2012 spillover season.

[gcseeker]

Soggadu bhai

Your id reminds of of Sobhan babu and of course the avatar always cracks me up. If I may volunteer my opinion and hopefully I dont divert the thread too much.

1.Markets reacted with unfounded confidence on the state of economy in mid 2009 and inflated themselves to unbeleivable levels . Some may even say the hidden actors orchestrated this.This was due to the effects of the huge stimulus trickling through the system.Free money to borrow from government and then charge interest on the same money lending to others.The government takes care of all the toxic debts on the books and banks went crazy.Companies already were flush with cash and they further reduced headcount making their accounting books and P/E ratios look good.This made their stocks extremely valuable to stockholders and hence you saw companies like BAC go from 2$ to 12$!!!! even with those toxic derivatives on their books.

2.Now the music has stopped.Actually it stopped 2 months back.The debt deal exposed Usa's credit rating to downgrades and those downgrades will happen thus affecting the bonds and Us government security markets which are traditional safe havens from customers.Also the jobs numbers have been dismal coming in the past 2-3 months . Government cannot spend a single pie now (thanks to the debt deal) .So Mr Bernanke cannot use his printing presses.

Also it does not matter if tech is doing okay. Every other job lost is of a person who is an consumer for some other company.Without those people buying products ultimately how will the economy come up.The nation cannot be run by bunch of teenagers browsing facebooks and playing games on Zynga.It requires an manufacturing base and actual products to be produced.Italy and europe are additional concerns adding to this.

There is no way out of this except for the economy to self correct itself finally. This is just the beginning. The only silver lining to this whole thing is ...I feel we will have significant SOFAD in 2012.


Wow.... but it really misses my lay man mind, how italy going default is making our markets take a dump... it shld hv been effected a little but 500+ is a lot...might be nervousness ehh?

[cbpds1]

The market goes down if the manufacturing report and consumer confidence goes down as well

Reg the last sentence, to make use of SOFAD, we folks on H1 must first survive the challenges due to layoffs and USCIS as well.


Soggadu bhai
There is no way out of this except for the economy to self correct itself finally. This is just the beginning. The only silver lining to this whole thing is ...I feel we will have significant SOFAD in 2012.

[cbpds1]

"Europe is also an important market for U.S. goods. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index earn about 20 percent of their profits in Europe, according to Bank of America." -yahoo finance

Wow.... but it really misses my lay man mind, how italy going default is making our markets take a dump... it shld hv been effected a little but 500+ is a lot...might be nervousness ehh?

[gcseeker]

cbpds1

True I definetly agree and this is what is different about this global recession.Localized recoveries will not happen.Everybody has hitched his or her wagon to the other and events in one part of the world will amplify the tremors to another part .

I would highly recommend Nassim Taleb's critically acclaimed book. " The black swan: Impact of the highly improbable" which offers some insights into these seemingly un-related events like Italy or Europe which in fact will acts as triggers to other events.People are living beyond their means and there is no escaping an correction.Healthy borrowing is required for an economy but not toxic derivatives in trillions and outsized government debts.


"Europe is also an important market for U.S. goods. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index earn about 20 percent of their profits in Europe, according to Bank of America." -yahoo finance

[Osaka001]

Cisco layoffs are due to the crappy products they make that people dont want to buy.
You are wrong on Cisco, they make product so good that people/companies don't need to replace them for many years, thats the disadvantage in this market,ofcourse they are little expensive. On other hand there are bunch of small companies they do sell similar products (crappy) for cheap and you need refresh every year. It's like , when people have money they go for Luxury restaurants, if they dont have money, they celebrate it at McDonald.

[gcseeker]

Q

Thanks for moving the threads to the general section :) .I keep on getting tempted to discuss this when posts appear in the EB2 predictions thread.

I will try to make a note and post it here in this section.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker,

I didn't move it this time around. May be one of S T or V. But I would've done the same. The discussion is great but better done on this thread.

If you are so much into finance and economics then you might enjoy www.minyanville.com (http://www.minyanville.com) This is IMHO the best website out there on Finance and Economics.

My relatively illiterate view on this whole financial mess is as follows:

Since 1986, Alan Greenspan (sworn by Reagon) and co. have misused monetary policy while regulation has gone complerely AWOL. This has increased valuations across board and far away from fundamentals. Housing is just one piece of the puzzle but it is true across board for all kinds of asset classes. Along with Greenspan and Co. came IT revolution which produced 2 things that ran contrary to each other. 1) With IT revolution complex financial products were created. 2) Ability to process massive amounts of data and reduced transaction costs - that gave rise to hedge funds.

Hedge funds identified weaknesses in teh fundamentals and started betting against those complex products and finally those products collapsed.

Now only if the markets were allowed to take their course everything would've been nice. But markets taking their course means valuations reversing to fundamentals in the long run and below fundamentals in the short run. OF course this would involved tremendous and disproportionate wealth destruction at the top end of the society. So this wealth had to be preserved under whatever pretext.

Then came bernanke who is basically a professor (not an economist) with specialization in depression studies. The guy has beyond strong belief in monetary policy and is called "helicopter ben" for his belief that government can print as much as necessary and they can create any amount of inflation desired. The little detail that he misses is that the US Fed is no longer sovereign owing to massive amount of globalization going on since 1970s. However, the powers that be select him as the next chief of Fed. He then uses his true belief in the power of monetary policy to generate inflation and achieve price stability AKA wealth preservation for the richest people on the earth.

I am not wise enough to understand every single move they made since Sep 2008-Feb 2009. However what was clear to me was the bondholders of all the big banks and corporations were basically saved. A lot of the bad assets were moved to Fed's balance sheet. Then come all kinds of liquidity boosting programs which do little to boost liquidity .... but hey liquidity was only a short term problem when bears and sterns was destroyed literrally in a day or two. The real problem was and has always been out-of-whack-valuation rather than liquidity.

So all this extra liquidity is sitting with big banks. These bankds by now have been allowed to play in the stock market. So the money goes into commodities and emerging regions. A lot of people make a lot of money in short term. Then comes the time to book profits. The music will stop someday. Apparently the music at least had a break today! Don't know if it has stopped yet. And we are now again on a path towards valuation reversal.

The funny thing is valuation reversal is going to show itself in two forms - one: actual price reduction for immobile assets. And two: inflation (and reduction in living standard) for mobile assets (i.e. exportable assets). So overall its going to reduce the living standard in the developed world.

But even this process is quite complicated. A man once said "The world is bad". Wise guy asked "Compared to what"?

Similarly yes US and the whole developed world is doing terrible, but the fact is the rest of the world (i.e. developing) is not ready to increase consumption. Consumption is a function of purchasing power and propensity to consume. Propensity to consume is clearly less in all of Asia including the most developed country Japan. But purchasing power continues to remain low because the wealth generation and distribution is skewed so unfavorably to a few which then results into waste such as $2B residence!! You know what I mean!

And so back to sqaure one. The world depends on US for growth and dollar continues to be the currency of choice (which is exactly what you saw today). Dollar rallied today.

I dont know whats next. But that's the basic understanding that i have of financial events in the last 2-3 years.



Q

Thanks for moving the threads to the general section :) .I keep on getting tempted to discuss this when posts appear in the EB2 predictions thread.

I will try to make a note and post it here in this section.

[soggadu]

Soggadu bhai

Your id reminds of of Sobhan babu and of course the avatar always cracks me up. If I may volunteer my opinion and hopefully I dont divert the thread too much.

1.Markets reacted with unfounded confidence on the state of economy in mid 2009 and inflated themselves to unbeleivable levels . Some may even say the hidden actors orchestrated this.This was due to the effects of the huge stimulus trickling through the system.Free money to borrow from government and then charge interest on the same money lending to others.The government takes care of all the toxic debts on the books and banks went crazy.Companies already were flush with cash and they further reduced headcount making their accounting books and P/E ratios look good.This made their stocks extremely valuable to stockholders and hence you saw companies like BAC go from 2$ to 12$!!!! even with those toxic derivatives on their books.

2.Now the music has stopped.Actually it stopped 2 months back.The debt deal exposed Usa's credit rating to downgrades and those downgrades will happen thus affecting the bonds and Us government security markets which are traditional safe havens from customers.Also the jobs numbers have been dismal coming in the past 2-3 months . Government cannot spend a single pie now (thanks to the debt deal) .So Mr Bernanke cannot use his printing presses.

Also it does not matter if tech is doing okay. Every other job lost is of a person who is an consumer for some other company.Without those people buying products ultimately how will the economy come up.The nation cannot be run by bunch of teenagers browsing facebooks and playing games on Zynga.It requires an manufacturing base and actual products to be produced.Italy and europe are additional concerns adding to this.

There is no way out of this except for the economy to self correct itself finally. This is just the beginning. The only silver lining to this whole thing is ...I feel we will have significant SOFAD in 2012.

Wow seeker Garu... Thank you so very much for explaining me all this... So it is indeed just the beginning then.... Also why are people worried about Italy goig bad ??? We can discuss here as it is general talk thread... Please tell me more...

[mesan123]

Q or any moderate can you tell me how to change username????

[Monica12]

Q or any moderate can you tell me how to change username????
Someone PLEASE help nnnnn behen....I'm sure people who are unhappy with their names can relate :) Sometimes, I wish I could change mine...
Nishant.. I hope the VB comes out by tuesday..God help us, if it gets delayed till Friday... I'm counting every minute...

[gcseeker]

Q

Very very well put summary and you nailed it on two counts. Inflation is the definetly the key and news came out today that Inflation has been falling across the globe . One would be tempted to beleive that would help consumers but unfortunately it will have exactly the reverse effect because the danger with an falling inflation is that it could lead to deflation and rapidly falling asset prices and then everybody would be in firesale mode leading to huge asset destruction.At the same time we cannot have sky high inflation leading to huge increases in the cost of food as being seen across the world.

It is a tightrope walk and Helicopter ben so far does not seem to have an handle on things. China is trying very hard to move away from the USD to a basket of currencies but does not look like it is going to happen overnight.It might take atleast 5 years before an serious challenger emerges for the USD...but hey you never know the downgrading of the rating might do the trick.

Thanks for reminding me about minyanville ( used to read this site a lot in 2009 and then forgot all about it ) .





The funny thing is valuation reversal is going to show itself in two forms - one: actual price reduction for immobile assets. And two: inflation (and reduction in living standard) for mobile assets (i.e. exportable assets). So overall its going to reduce the living standard in the developed world.

And so back to sqaure one. The world depends on US for growth and dollar continues to be the currency of choice (which is exactly what you saw today). Dollar rallied today.

I dont know whats next. But that's the basic understanding that i have of financial events in the last 2-3 years.

[gcseeker]

Soggadu Bhai

:( with the garu you have sent me back 10 more years in time. (J/k) In fact I will have to start calling you that since you provide much needed welcome humour in the predictions thread which cheers up a lot of people. I am more of the doom and gloom guy :)

Some reasons why wallstreet is extremely worried about Italy.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh-image/02marsh-image-custom1-v3.gif

1.Many of the European banks and American Banks have exposure to the Greek and Italy Debt.
2.In fact they have exposure to the PIIGS countries debts ( And again all of them borrowed from each other !!!!)
3.An default by any of the stakeholders there will ripple immensely through the system.
4.Also European markets acts as end consumers for American goods. Like cbds1 pointed out revenue for American companies is almost 20% from europe market.
5.With austerity measures being taken up in most of these countries.People do not have money to buy food properly , they will not be able to afford american goods.

Last but not least finally the music has stopped and yes this is just the beginning.


Wow seeker Garu... Thank you so very much for explaining me all this... So it is indeed just the beginning then.... Also why are people worried about Italy goig bad ??? We can discuss here as it is general talk thread... Please tell me more...

[qesehmk]

I think you can do it yourself in your profile management option.

If you can't then let me know what name you want and we will change it!


Q or any moderate can you tell me how to change username????

[soggadu]

Soggadu Bhai

:( with the garu you have sent me back 10 more years in time. (J/k) In fact I will have to start calling you that since you provide much needed welcome humour in the predictions thread which cheers up a lot of people. I am more of the doom and gloom guy :)

Some reasons why wallstreet is extremely worried about Italy.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh-image/02marsh-image-custom1-v3.gif

1.Many of the European banks and American Banks have exposure to the Greek and Italy Debt.
2.In fact they have exposure to the PIIGS countries debts ( And again all of them borrowed from each other !!!!)
3.An default by any of the stakeholders there will ripple immensely through the system.
4.Also European markets acts as end consumers for American goods. Like cbds1 pointed out revenue for American companies is almost 20% from europe market.
5.With austerity measures being taken up in most of these countries.People do not have money to buy food properly , they will not be able to afford american goods.

Last but not least finally the music has stopped and yes this is just the beginning.

Awesome.... Nice explanation both seeker bhai and q bhai....

Also, Garu is out of respect for your knowledge not for ur age seeker bhai....

[mesan123]

well tried it, but couldnt find place where i can change username ... :(

can you change my username to mesan123




I think you can do it yourself in your profile management option.

If you can't then let me know what name you want and we will change it!

[mesan123]

Thank you Q

[Spectator]

nnnnn ... now your name is changed!

mesan123, the artist formally known as n*5+123

Sorry. I couldn't resist! :p

For Monica, she could be Angela, Pamela, Sandra or Rita; Erica, Tina, Mary or Jessica.

Overall, I think I prefer A little bit of Monica in my life.

[leo07]

Congrats mesan123 :)

may your new username bring luck as well

Thank you Q

[mesan123]

nice one :)

now my name is better i believe.....


mesan123, the artist formally known as n*5+123

Sorry. I couldn't resist! :p

[mesan123]

If it needs to bring luck.....it shuld have already...as itz my last name.... :)

but hope it brings luck this time for everyone here..... :)


Congrats mesan123 :)

may your new username bring luck as well

[qesehmk]

Hmmm!

Spec hitting on Monica!!



mesan123, the artist formally known as n*5+123

Sorry. I couldn't resist! :p

For Monica, she could be Angela, Pamela, Sandra or Rita; Erica, Tina, Mary or Jessica.

Overall, I think I prefer A little bit of Monica in my life.

[nishant2200]

Hmmm!

Spec hitting on Monica!!

most memorable moment.

Also I would like to take credit for coining n*5+123 , will miss u :)

What a wonderful group if people here. I am priveleged to be part of this forum and getting chance to know you all.

Ok, senti. Back to Q n Spec dialogue. Spec, there's another popular indian song with regards to Monica. You may want to google R.D. Burman Monica, movie is Caravan.

[ssvp22]

Overall, I think I prefer A little bit of Monica in my life.
Same here. Wanted to say that, but resisted ;)

[soggadu]

Guys noise to signal ratio is increasing ;-) ;-)... Good to see everybody having good time..... Moniiiicaaaaaa Kahan ho aap... Yehan pe aap ke naam ka jaap ho raha hein.... Spec.... U too brutee...

[mesan123]

You are reason for the noise to signal ratio !
....shuru app kiya shoban babu(ring valla)... :) everybody are following you sir.... :) but it is nice to see people having little fun forgetting there hard chase to GC


Guys noise to signal ratio is increasing ;-) ;-)... Good to see everybody having good time..... Moniiiicaaaaaa Kahan ho aap... Yehan pe aap ke naam ka jaap ho raha hein.... Spec.... U too brutee...

[mesan123]

Yeap Nishant...agreed you are the initiator :)


most memorable moment.

Also I would like to take credit for coining n*5+123 , will miss u :)

What a wonderful group if people here. I am priveleged to be part of this forum and getting chance to know you all.

Ok, senti. Back to Q n Spec dialogue. Spec, there's another popular indian song with regards to Monica. You may want to google R.D. Burman Monica, movie is Caravan.

[Monica12]

awe... guys!:o
meri aankho mein ansoo aa gaye, LOL!
what a wonderful group of people we have in this family :D

[Monica12]

Yaraavadhu oru motta suvaru irundha kaatungalen
JJ behen, can you please translate that to english? I'm curious now...

[mesan123]

Hmm i can translate a bit..

she meant 'can anyone please show me a wall'

but really couldnot translate the 'motta' meaning in that....kanmani can help us there...

by the way Monica...it is your turn behen ...people started comments on your username :)...


JJ behen, can you please translate that to english? I'm curious now...

[soggadu]

motta is broken
rest is correct

Thanks mesan ( actually it should be n*5*123 correct? just kidding :-) )

Let go of her past!!!!...will ya....;-)

[rpd123]

Gurus,

Great blog. It has become my daily ritual to visit this blog and the analysis here is very well thought out. This being my first post, did not want to add to noise to signal ratio, however couldn't stop as this blog relies on facts and math: Spec, shouldn't it be n^5 instead of n*5


mesan123, the artist formally known as n*5+123

Sorry. I couldn't resist! :p

For Monica, she could be Angela, Pamela, Sandra or Rita; Erica, Tina, Mary or Jessica.

Overall, I think I prefer A little bit of Monica in my life.

[Monica12]

Gurus,

Great blog. It has become my daily ritual to visit this blog and the analysis here is very well thought out. This being my first post, did not want to add to noise to signal ratio, however couldn't stop as this blog relies on facts and math: Spec, shouldn't it be n^5 instead of n*5
rpd bhai. welcome to the forum.... good one! n*5 behen is trying to let go of her past....but since everyone is obsessed with math here,it's going to be hard ..LOL!

[nishant2200]

Gurus,

Great blog. It has become my daily ritual to visit this blog and the analysis here is very well thought out. This being my first post, did not want to add to noise to signal ratio, however couldn't stop as this blog relies on facts and math: Spec, shouldn't it be n^5 instead of n*5

I made it, not Spec. I think even n^5 wouldn't do it. Does this fit into a numerical model, it's more of a string concatenation.

[soggadu]

I made it, not Spec. I think even n^5 wouldn't do it. Does this fit into a numerical model, it's more of a string concatenation.

N bhai prove karo ki aap ne hi yeh kiya tha... where is the proof i sayyyy...

[qesehmk]

Here is an article from yahoo - Bernanke Models Prove Faulty as Fed Forecasts Succumb to Downward Revision (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Models-Prove-Faulty-bloomberg-1898689993.html;_ylt=AoVAgBt9nSURPKUvzOEypTe7YWsA; _ylu=X3oDMTE2cXZpNHJnBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3Rvcmllc wRzbGsDYmVybmFua2Vtb2Rl?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=)

Some of the key things from the article

1) “We haven’t had any historical event that really would allow us to reliably statistically calibrate an event like the one we’ve had,” David Stockton, director of the Fed’s Division of Research and Statistics.
2) Stockton calls the 2007-2009 period “an unprecedented financial crisis in the lives of almost every economic agent.”
“That had profound effects on people’s balance sheets, on their spending, and their impetus to deleverage,” he said in the interview. “Something beyond transitory factors are at work.”
3) “Something new and different is going on,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York. “Neither monetary nor fiscal policy is giving us the kind of bang we have traditionally got. The household sector is simply not spending as it has in the past.”
4) And the grand finale of the article! It ends by saying --
“This is a standard-of-living shock,” Coronado said.“What we thought we could afford, and what we leveraged to, is much more than we can afford at present and in the future.”

p.s. - I haven't formally studied economics other than a couple of courses in MBA. However my hunch is that all this mess has its origins in the republican tilt of american politics which reflected in economics by downplaying keynes and giving importance to freedman. And while both may have pluses and minuses. I think the loose monetary policy and a disbelief in fiscal policy certainly has its roots in freedmanian thoughts. That's what then gave rise to stupid reagonics thoughts like deficits don't matter and the subsequent increase in war spending.

Q

Very very well put summary and you nailed it on two counts. Inflation is the definetly the key and news came out today that Inflation has been falling across the globe . One would be tempted to beleive that would help consumers but unfortunately it will have exactly the reverse effect because the danger with an falling inflation is that it could lead to deflation and rapidly falling asset prices and then everybody would be in firesale mode leading to huge asset destruction.At the same time we cannot have sky high inflation leading to huge increases in the cost of food as being seen across the world.

It is a tightrope walk and Helicopter ben so far does not seem to have an handle on things. China is trying very hard to move away from the USD to a basket of currencies but does not look like it is going to happen overnight.It might take atleast 5 years before an serious challenger emerges for the USD...but hey you never know the downgrading of the rating might do the trick.

Thanks for reminding me about minyanville ( used to read this site a lot in 2009 and then forgot all about it ) .

[gcseeker]

Breaking news...Just go to CNN main page.S&P has cut the AAA rating for the Usa.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

This is happening for the first time .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903366504576490841235575386.html

From the article

"A cornerstone of the global financial system was shaken Friday when officials at ratings firm Standard & Poor's said U.S. Treasury debt no longer deserved to be considered among the safest investments in the world."

The last shreds of doubt in my mind are removed. Wall street will get butchered on Monday. This is not an move that is to be taken lightly. This shakes up everything from the bonds market to USD status. Now the chances for a recession get even more strengthened,only the severity is in question.

Interest rates will have to move up .

P.S Moody's and Fitch still retain the rating for Usa but the move by S&P will be enough to shake up the markets.Also this muddies the waters because many european firms rely on S&P to decide safe havens for money and now they will find it hard to park it in US markets.

[gcq]

For me this downgrade has more political component than financial. US credit was in this shape for a long time as long as we can remember. Nothing has changed now. Why this sudden downgrade which coincides with raising of debt limit by lawmakers ?

S&P executives might have felt that they have to steal some limelight from lawmakers.

[gcseeker]

gcq

There are some political tangles with the downgrade .S&P wanted to get back at the regulators (Dodd-Frank) for reducing the power of the ratings agencies.

However the biggest reason for the timing is this

1.With the debt deal there is no more an possibility for one more stimulus. Wall street is now acting like a spoiled child.
2.Entitlement programs were not cut sufficiently so this leaves long term question marks on the health of the US debt.
3.Consumers are finally waking up to the global economic reality ,that there are no more magic bullets and stocks are way overvauled.


Anywaz there are deep structural problems too. Wallstreet as expected is tumbling hard today...and key support levels will get tested.


For me this downgrade has more political component than financial. US credit was in this shape for a long time as long as we can remember. Nothing has changed now. Why this sudden downgrade which coincides with raising of debt limit by lawmakers ?

S&P executives might have felt that they have to steal some limelight from lawmakers.

[qesehmk]

On another note did you guys notice - S&P chief is desi guy - Deven Sharma.


gcq

There are some political tangles with the downgrade .S&P wanted to get back at the regulators (Dodd-Frank) for reducing the power of the ratings agencies.

However the biggest reason for the timing is this

1.With the debt deal there is no more an possibility for one more stimulus. Wall street is now acting like a spoiled child.
2.Entitlement programs were not cut sufficiently so this leaves long term question marks on the health of the US debt.
3.Consumers are finally waking up to the global economic reality ,that there are no more magic bullets and stocks are way overvauled.


Anywaz there are deep structural problems too. Wallstreet as expected is tumbling hard today...and key support levels will get tested.

[gcq]

gcq

There are some political tangles with the downgrade .S&P wanted to get back at the regulators (Dodd-Frank) for reducing the power of the ratings agencies.

However the biggest reason for the timing is this

1.With the debt deal there is no more an possibility for one more stimulus. Wall street is now acting like a spoiled child.
2.Entitlement programs were not cut sufficiently so this leaves long term question marks on the health of the US debt.
3.Consumers are finally waking up to the global economic reality ,that there are no more magic bullets and stocks are way overvauled.


Anywaz there are deep structural problems too. Wallstreet as expected is tumbling hard today...and key support levels will get tested.
Makes sense. Here is the view of Moody's. This view seems to be more realistic.
Moody's cautious about U.S. deficit cuts plan (http://news.yahoo.com/moodys-says-u-still-needs-further-cuts-073611528.html;_ylt=AsTkZX2R6XdFNdn1ePoIlomyBhIF;_ ylu=X3oDMTM1Zmt1aHF1BHBrZwMyYWYzYWQ3Ni1lNDdkLTMyMz YtYTJjNy0zNTRiMTkyMDY5MTgEcG9zAzUEc2VjA3RvcF9zdG9y eQR2ZXIDN2RkZTM5ODAtYzFkNy0xMWUwLWJiZmUtNTUxOGQ1OG JhYTA0;_ylg=X3oDMTFtcHBmZ2VxBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi 11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzZWN0aW9u cw--;_ylv=3)

In his first comments after the move by rival rating agency S&P, Moody's analyst Steven Hess sounded a note of caution about Moody's rating of the U.S., repeating that the August 2 plan to cut deficits by $2.1 trillion was positive for the U.S. credit standing, but not enough to keep its rating on a stable outlook.

[gcq]

Geithner blasts S&P rating (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/aug/08/geithner-blasts-sp-rating/)

WASHINGTON – The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s showed “terrible judgment” in lowering the U.S. government’s credit rating, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday.

“They’ve handled themselves very poorly. And they’ve shown a stunning lack of knowledge about the basic U.S. fiscal budget math,” Geithner said in his first public comments about the credit rating decision.

[gcseeker]

Q I noticed that and also some of the closest policy advisors for the President are Desi's like the Tech Czar.It is interesting to see the ascendence of the desis in America in politics as well.


On another note did you guys notice - S&P chief is desi guy - Deven Sharma.

Gcq

Geithner is the last person I would trust with the economy.He is just an policy hack and toes the party line often. Leaving aside the politics of the S&P downgrade, the economy really is in trouble . NYtimes has an good article about the second recession possibility.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/a-second-recession-could-be-much-worse-than-the-first.html



Geithner blasts S&P rating (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/aug/08/geithner-blasts-sp-rating/)

[gcq]

I will add,

media are always looking for negative news to add some sensationalism. In most recessions, it is the talk of recession that gets the economy into recession. As for S&P ratings it is the same agency that rated bad mortgages as AAAs which ultimately led to the downfall of Lehman brothers and the 2008 meltdown. There is something fishy about this S&P downgrade.

[gcseeker]

gcq

I am not definetly discounting the effect of media on consumer confidence or the ability to sway opinion. Even if we leave aside the ratings agencies and even if the public is led to beleive the economy is doing great ,ultimately the floor of this economy is going to fall out.We do not have the required job growth rate to get us out of recession.Neither do we have growth in the manufacturing sectors ,inflation is roaring its ugly head.People have to spend a ton on gas and milk . Possibility of an stimulus is totally removed .Housing market is shot through for the next decade.

How on earth will we avoid an second recession. Even if the Media tries to pump good news ,it will not take us far. S&P is definetly acting fishy .It is just like one of the criminals turns approver in a court case and drags the names of the others out.

Recessions are caused by the unrational and longfounded beleif enshrined in economics that

1.Markets will regulate themselves
2.People will behave rationally given an controlled set of circumstances.
3.World Combined GDP is around 70-80 Trillion. The US derivatives market is alone 670 Trillion !!!!!! If it loses 10% of its value...it will take the whole globe on a spin of global depression.

If this is not the pinnacle of greed ,nothing else will be. Countries and people will prosper when there is exchange of real goods not virtual derivatives.




I will add,

media are always looking for negative news to add some sensationalism. In most recessions, it is the talk of recession that gets the economy into recession. As for S&P ratings it is the same agency that rated bad mortgages as AAAs which ultimately led to the downfall of Lehman brothers and the 2008 meltdown. There is something fishy about this S&P downgrade.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker you make a great point about derivatives. In layman's terms, there are just too many .. just tooooooo many excessive future claims lying around. Somebody needs to devalue them.


gcq

I am not definetly discounting the effect of media on consumer confidence or the ability to sway opinion. Even if we leave aside the ratings agencies and even if the public is led to beleive the economy is doing great ,ultimately the floor of this economy is going to fall out.We do not have the required job growth rate to get us out of recession.Neither do we have growth in the manufacturing sectors ,inflation is roaring its ugly head.People have to spend a ton on gas and milk . Possibility of an stimulus is totally removed .Housing market is shot through for the next decade.

How on earth will we avoid an second recession. Even if the Media tries to pump good news ,it will not take us far. S&P is definetly acting fishy .It is just like one of the criminals turns approver in a court case and drags the names of the others out.

Recessions are caused by the unrational and longfounded beleif enshrined in economics that

1.Markets will regulate themselves
2.People will behave rationally given an controlled set of circumstances.
3.World Combined GDP is around 70-80 Trillion. The US derivatives market is alone 670 Trillion !!!!!! If it loses 10% of its value...it will take the whole globe on a spin of global depression.

If this is not the pinnacle of greed ,nothing else will be. Countries and people will prosper when there is exchange of real goods not virtual derivatives.

[gcq]

S&P slammed after U.S. downgrade (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/p-slammed-u-downgrade-160436799.html;_ylt=Ag7qeSHcbyGqU0MZieZfU.as0NUE;_ ylu=X3oDMTM1ZjFocThjBHBrZwNiOTEyNTRkZC0zOGE2LTM3YT UtOGJmNC1jMzA3MzM5NTllODMEcG9zAzEEc2VjA3RvcF9zdG9y eQR2ZXIDYzc2ODg2ZTAtYzJhYS0xMWUwLWFmNzYtNThiNGI4ZT AxNjI1;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi 11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_yl v=3)

Days after Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating, a powerful backlash has set in against the move. Washington leaders of both parties, as well as investors, have seemed to shrug off the ratings agency's verdict--and some analysts have even raised questions about S&P's basic competence and credibility.

On Friday, S&P lowered its rating for long-term debt issued by the U.S. Treasury by one notch, from Triple A--its highest rating--to AA+. Explaining the move, it said Washington hadn't done enough to reduce the long-term deficit, and expressed doubt about the ability of political leaders to work together to solve the problem.

After the recent crisis over raising the debt ceiling, those concerns--especially the latter--appear valid. But by lowering the U.S. rating, S&P is saying that it now sees an increased chance that the Treasury won't repay its debts in the future--even though Congress did ultimately vote to raise the ceiling, avoiding a default.

And that's where many observers differ with S&P. Take a look at the financial markets: It's true that, so far this week, Wall Street and foreign markets have nosedived. But that descent began last week, before the downgrade. More important, far from running away from U.S. Treasury bonds, investors are flocking to them, suggesting that they see the chances of a default as slimmer than ever.

"The downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit by S&P on Friday reflects facts that have been well known to the market for some time," said Blackrock, the world's largest asset management firm, in a statement Monday. "So, it does not imply a fundamental increase in risk, and we don't believe that investors should change their behavior based solely on the downgrade."

President Obama appears to agree. "No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a AAA country," he declared Monday.
Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan, too, said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he sees no risk in investing in U.S. Treasuries--though the judgment of the economic planner known as "the maestro" hasn't always proved infallible.

Many economists argue, essentially, that the United States isn't going to fail to pay its debts. "The debt is issued in dollars. That means it is payable in dollars. The U.S. government prints dollars," wrote Dean Baker of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research Saturday. "This means that if for some reason the government was unable to tax or borrow to raise the money to pay its debt then it could always print it. This may carry a risk of inflation, but S&P is not in the business of making inflation predictions, they are in the business of assessing the likelihood that debt will be repaid."

S&P is the world's largest ratings agency. In most cases, its business model is based on charging the issuers of debt--private corporations, local and state governments, for instance--in exchange for a rating. The issuer then uses a positive rating to give investors confidence in the solidity of the investment. But S&P also rates the debt of 126 countries. And, like many of the countries whose debt is rated by S&P, the United States neither requests nor pays for its rating.
.................................................. ...............................

[jackbrown_890]

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.


There has been lots of ups and downs (actually downs and ups) in stock market. but i am going to stick with this theory for till d end of this quarter. Plus Last week's weekly unemployment stayed at 400,000 (as i said a day b4 dat) and i am hoping it will continue to stay close to that number for few weeks because of the planned jobs cuts and local government layoffs (hoping it won't go up because of lay offs like csco and borders) and hopefully it will come down close to 375-380,000 and we will start seeing Job market recovery along with hopefully some retail spending will increase based on "NEED" from September. And on top of that the corporations holding over a trillion in cash will start spending too. All together will be lead to a (not great but) decent recovery in 2012.

[gcq]

Was S&P downgrade an act of revenge? (http://redtape.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/09/7321296-was-sp-downgrade-an-act-of-revenge)

You might think Standard & Poor’s has something against the U.S. government, the way the ratings firm treated the nation's credit rating on Friday.
In fact, it does.

It's hard to view the monumental ratings downgrade in context without understanding the long-running feud between the government and ratings agencies. In April, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., issued a scathing 650-page report contending that malfeasance at ratings bureaus like Standard & Poor’s was as much to blame for the housing bubble as any bank, and included a series of smoking gun e-mails that suggested that the firms knew they were profiting from unethical behavior. A little-known section of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill also hits the rating agencies with new limits destined to undercut their lucrative business; the Securities and Exchange Commission is discussing right now just how to implement the new rules. The public comment period on new rules ended Monday.

Is the timing a coincidence? Or could the ratings downgrade from Standard & Poor’s be viewed as a shot back at a government that's been taking plenty of shots at the ratings industry lately?

.................................................. .........

[knight]

Hello all,

I've been reading this forum everyday for about a couple of months now, and finally decided to register. I am a EB2I PWMB with a PD of 04May07. I was hoping that my PD will get current this September, but like everyone was disappointed. Anyways, kudos to all the gurus for the great number crunching that you do and the other members as well. I really appreciate the camaraderie on this forum.

I have some information that I wanted to share - a lot of people from the company (in SanDiego) that I work for, have moved to A (in Cupertino). There was a sudden need for people with experience here and so the company decided to bring a bunch of people from the branch in India, promising them that they would file GCs for them in EB1. These are not very senior guys either and have about the same experience as me. Over the past 3 months, I have seen several people who came here from the India branch. Our company filed for them in EB1 and to my surprise almost all of them got FP notices by now. And I thought to myself - here I am slogging for five years, and most likely will have to wait for one more.

I have read posts about Kazarian memo and how difficult things are for filing in EB1, but I guess that only applies for students/researchers who got their PhD here. I wonder what kind of restrictions exist / how strict USCIS is about the applications filed for manager positions in EB1. Apparently, our company lawyers seem to have found a quick way to get around those! Not very fair IMHO, and I am a victim of this as well!!

[Sandeep2011]

Knight,

My understanding is that there is a clause for multinational managers in EB1. I am not exactly sure about the requirements for this but I know of couple of my friends who work for Indian IT services companies who got their GCs under EB1 using this channel. Apparently you need to have a certain number of years of experience and at least one year of experience with the same company outside US to be eligible for this.



Hello all,

I've been reading this forum everyday for about a couple of months now, and finally decided to register. I am a EB2I PWMB with a PD of 04May07. I was hoping that my PD will get current this September, but like everyone was disappointed. Anyways, kudos to all the gurus for the great number crunching that you do and the other members as well. I really appreciate the camaraderie on this forum.

I have some information that I wanted to share - a lot of people from the company (in SanDiego) that I work for, have moved to A (in Cupertino). There was a sudden need for people with experience here and so the company decided to bring a bunch of people from the branch in India, promising them that they would file GCs for them in EB1. These are not very senior guys either and have about the same experience as me. Over the past 3 months, I have seen several people who came here from the India branch. Our company filed for them in EB1 and to my surprise almost all of them got FP notices by now. And I thought to myself - here I am slogging for five years, and most likely will have to wait for one more.

I have read posts about Kazarian memo and how difficult things are for filing in EB1, but I guess that only applies for students/researchers who got their PhD here. I wonder what kind of restrictions exist / how strict USCIS is about the applications filed for manager positions in EB1. Apparently, our company lawyers seem to have found a quick way to get around those! Not very fair IMHO, and I am a victim of this as well!!

[nishant2200]

Yes, I agree, it's amazing and not fair. These people are in same league as the outstanding PhDs and Researchers and Nobel Laureates ?...

knight, sandeep, let's hope for our sake, this does not become a rising trend. Now there is even PP for EB1C and will lead to more SYA.


Knight,

My understanding is that there is a clause for multinational managers in EB1. I am not exactly sure about the requirements for this but I know of couple of my friends who work for Indian IT services companies who got their GCs under EB1 using this channel. Apparently you need to have a certain number of years of experience and at least one year of experience with the same company outside US to be eligible for this.

[qesehmk]

knight

Generally I am very defensive about EB1C use by Indian companies but in this case I do agree that if true this is absolutely outrageous. I wonder if this practice is really widespread within all of EB1Cs ...

May be USCIS should really make EB1C very strict or simply abolish this category. Your example shows the fallacy of EB1C.



Hello all,

I've been reading this forum everyday for about a couple of months now, and finally decided to register. I am a EB2I PWMB with a PD of 04May07. I was hoping that my PD will get current this September, but like everyone was disappointed. Anyways, kudos to all the gurus for the great number crunching that you do and the other members as well. I really appreciate the camaraderie on this forum.

I have some information that I wanted to share - a lot of people from the company (in SanDiego) that I work for, have moved to A (in Cupertino). There was a sudden need for people with experience here and so the company decided to bring a bunch of people from the branch in India, promising them that they would file GCs for them in EB1. These are not very senior guys either and have about the same experience as me. Over the past 3 months, I have seen several people who came here from the India branch. Our company filed for them in EB1 and to my surprise almost all of them got FP notices by now. And I thought to myself - here I am slogging for five years, and most likely will have to wait for one more.

I have read posts about Kazarian memo and how difficult things are for filing in EB1, but I guess that only applies for students/researchers who got their PhD here. I wonder what kind of restrictions exist / how strict USCIS is about the applications filed for manager positions in EB1. Apparently, our company lawyers seem to have found a quick way to get around those! Not very fair IMHO, and I am a victim of this as well!!


Question for Gurus

I work for a management consulting company which also has a private equity subsidiary. My I-140 was sponsored by this private equity subsidiary, there are talks about merging this PE subsidiary back with larger managament consulting company. Will that have any impact on my I-140, which has already been approved? I will really appreciate some guidance on this. Thanks.


Sandeep I am sorry I can't help with an advice on this one. My gut feel is that this should be a non-issue. The reason being any corporation has hundreds of legal entities through which they do business in any country.

Your position is always with a particular legal entity in a country but somehow all of this folds nicely into the parent company as far as USCIS is concerned. But worth spending money and confirming with Lawyer.

[knight]

Q - I'm not talking about an Indian company. This is Qualcomm I'm talking about!! Nevertheless, be it Indian company/multinational, I still think that this is kind of abusing the system. Qcom is just one company I know is doing this. Not sure how many other companies are doing similar stuff(!!)


knight

Generally I am very defensive about EB1C use by Indian companies but in this case I do agree that if true this is absolutely outrageous. I wonder if this practice is really widespread within all of EB1Cs ...

May be USCIS should really make EB1C very strict or simply abolish this category. Your example shows the fallacy of EB1C.

[nishant2200]

Q - I'm not talking about an Indian company. This is Qualcomm I'm talking about!! Nevertheless, be it Indian company/multinational, I still think that this is kind of abusing the system. Qcom is just one company I know is doing this. Not sure how many other companies are doing similar stuff(!!)

EB1C Club: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/682187133/eb1c-club

They are complaining about waiting for few months, and even writing to senators etc.


So far I have yet to come across a single genuine EB1C.

And another big, "jale par namak" - salt on wounds, with these guys is, they are always married and also they bring one or two kids with them too, to gobble up further numbers from the kitty :D

Anyways, just ranting and sharing your frustration here :)

[gcseeker]

Knight

Thanks for posting this information. I have friends who work there and can confirm this .Qualcomm does this rampantly ( very few semicons dare to do this ) and yes Indian companies do this rampantly.Even after all the noise about Kazarian have noticed there are quite a few people coming in through the EB1C loophole .Typically people will work for one year in India for the company , would have inflated resumes and also will manage to title themselves in such a way that the clear hierarchy requirement of USCIS is satisfied and will get their GC's within a year.

Anwyaz there are many such things going on where good intentions and rules are abused by companies and individuals adding to a lot of pain for individuals.

EB1C loopholes and Porting loopholes are to name a few.Some people will always beleive in jumping lines.

I rest my case, have stopped bothering about such information since we are powerless to stop this.

Just have to wait in line honestly untill the powers to be grant us an chance to atleast file 485 ...heart breaking to say the least.


By the way This is also the reason I beleive SOFAD from EB1 might not be as good this year ....people game or learn to game the system within a year of new rules usually.With a bad economy ,companies are usually motivated to hire more mutlinational managers ( beats me why !!!)


Hello all,

I've been reading this forum everyday for about a couple of months now, and finally decided to register. I am a EB2I PWMB with a PD of 04May07. I was hoping that my PD will get current this September, but like everyone was disappointed. Anyways, kudos to all the gurus for the great number crunching that you do and the other members as well. I really appreciate the camaraderie on this forum.

I have some information that I wanted to share - a lot of people from the company (in SanDiego) that I work for, have moved to A (in Cupertino). There was a sudden need for people with experience here and so the company decided to bring a bunch of people from the branch in India, promising them that they would file GCs for them in EB1. These are not very senior guys either and have about the same experience as me. Over the past 3 months, I have seen several people who came here from the India branch. Our company filed for them in EB1 and to my surprise almost all of them got FP notices by now. And I thought to myself - here I am slogging for five years, and most likely will have to wait for one more.

I have read posts about Kazarian memo and how difficult things are for filing in EB1, but I guess that only applies for students/researchers who got their PhD here. I wonder what kind of restrictions exist / how strict USCIS is about the applications filed for manager positions in EB1. Apparently, our company lawyers seem to have found a quick way to get around those! Not very fair IMHO, and I am a victim of this as well!!

[qesehmk]

Wow! I heard that's where the IV founder works or used to work BTW!!

Anyway .... but if one were pissed about this and would complain to USCIS, I wouldn't blame them. Totally understand the frustration.


Q - I'm not talking about an Indian company. This is Qualcomm I'm talking about!! Nevertheless, be it Indian company/multinational, I still think that this is kind of abusing the system. Qcom is just one company I know is doing this. Not sure how many other companies are doing similar stuff(!!)

[polarbear]

My first post here. Great job by the experts in making sense out of this huge amount of data.

knight - i have also personally seen this happening and feel your pain. It is also being done in Intel and MS.

It does look like EB1C is going to be a silent killer.I have known tens of folks who got GCs within a year in this category and earlier my reaction used to be "its good that at least some companies are standing up for their employees...good for them". But over the last 2 years, the number has grown multifold and this category has turned into one big loophole.


Wow! I heard that's where the IV founder works or used to work BTW!!

Anyway .... but if one were pissed about this and would complain to USCIS, I wouldn't blame them. Totally understand the frustration.


Q - I'm not talking about an Indian company. This is Qualcomm I'm talking about!! Nevertheless, be it Indian company/multinational, I still think that this is kind of abusing the system. Qcom is just one company I know is doing this. Not sure how many other companies are doing similar stuff(!!)

[TheTexan]

Guys,

I feel the pain too. Although my co. does not have this kind of thing going on, I've come across lot of people who would do practically nothing in India, but have titles like 'Global Manager...' come here and get their GCs.

But I gotta say that there doing this staying in the realm of legality. It will be difficult to prove that they are exploiting the system.

There is another group of people that pisses me off. They are the ones who get their GCs done (in EB category ofcourse) just "as another option" and then keep b* about US.

Anyways, just ranting.

[qesehmk]

That's what matters in the end. Just like any other system this too has its flaws.
Anyway ...keep cool down there. I hear record heat and lots of water main breaks in houston eh?

Guys,

I feel the pain too. Although my co. does not have this kind of thing going on, I've come across lot of people who would do practically nothing in India, but have titles like 'Global Manager...' come here and get their GCs.

But I gotta say that there doing this staying in the realm of legality. It will be difficult to prove that they are exploiting the system.

There is another group of people that pisses me off. They are the ones who get their GCs done (in EB category ofcourse) just "as another option" and then keep b* about US.

Anyways, just ranting.

[nishant2200]

Guys,

I feel the pain too. Although my co. does not have this kind of thing going on, I've come across lot of people who would do practically nothing in India, but have titles like 'Global Manager...' come here and get their GCs.

But I gotta say that there doing this staying in the realm of legality. It will be difficult to prove that they are exploiting the system.

There is another group of people that pisses me off. They are the ones who get their GCs done (in EB category ofcourse) just "as another option" and then keep b* about US.

Anyways, just ranting.

This is also rampant, especially in these guys who get it easily. 'kabhi sadi gali phul ke bhi aaya karo ji' , where we are waiting since eternity.

I am seriously considering reading up on EB1C and writing letter to DHS/USCIS to consider a memo like Kazarian to have a standard which comensurates the EB1. Frankly only fear of hassling with system while waiting for GC is holding me back.

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys,

I feel the pain too. Although my co. does not have this kind of thing going on, I've come across lot of people who would do practically nothing in India, but have titles like 'Global Manager...' come here and get their GCs.

But I gotta say that there doing this staying in the realm of legality. It will be difficult to prove that they are exploiting the system.

There is another group of people that pisses me off. They are the ones who get their GCs done (in EB category ofcourse) just "as another option" and then keep b* about US.

Anyways, just ranting.

Well said, we all feel the pain but the way the current criteria’s are defined all one has to prove is that he / she has been a manager outside US for a year and currently is a manager with US and non US reports. Since EB1 is a category for the exceptional maybe USCIS and DOS should come up with a memo so that it can be reserved for truly exceptional managers (Unfortunately it may not be those who are good managers :)) but atleast people who have say a 100 plus reports or who command very high dollar revenues for an account or are part of executive management like (CEO, COO, CFO etc) of atleast a 100 people company. Most of the companies file for EB1 visas for those managers who have established some kind of good liaison with the end client and then they claim to their higher management that without them the project will be lost etc, it’s all about being at the right place at the right time there is not something very academic about it. Most success stories at client side are written by people who actually work 12 hours a day onsite and offshore and not by these managers however not everything is fair, quite often the people who come onsite and become coordinators and managers are never the best and brightest but they are masters in politics and pulling strings and beneficiaries of favoritism. I will end my ranting here :)

[TheTexan]

That's what matters in the end. Just like any other system this too has its flaws.
Anyway ...keep cool down there. I hear record heat and lots of water main breaks in houston eh?

Q,

I agree. Btw, I am trying to stay cool here..yesterday the temp was 102 and felt like 110. Frankly I can't tell the difference between 102 and 110, anything above 100 is uncomfortably hot! :-)

[ivaarz]

Thanks Knight for bringing it to notice. I think we should act on these fraudulent cases. Please use the below information to report any of these cases. You can do it anonymously. While I agree that couple of people may be senior enough and be eligible for EB1, but majority of them would be disqualified. Even if they all get through for now, it would atleast highlight the loopholes in the system and discourage the company lawyers from gaming the system so easily because of increased scrutiny.

We know how much we all struggle for GC toiling day in and out . We go through several sacrifices on career and family fronts and it is disheartening to see such fraud happening. We only help ourselves by reducing this EB1 fraud.

Let us report the cases and let USCIS and company lawyers figure what is right and wrong.....

************************************************** ****************************************
When you come across any immigration Frauds
# Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.

Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
D.C. 20529-2280
FDNS@dhs.gov
************************************************** ****************************************



Hello all,

I've been reading this forum everyday for about a couple of months now, and finally decided to register. I am a EB2I PWMB with a PD of 04May07. I was hoping that my PD will get current this September, but like everyone was disappointed. Anyways, kudos to all the gurus for the great number crunching that you do and the other members as well. I really appreciate the camaraderie on this forum.

I have some information that I wanted to share - a lot of people from the company (in SanDiego) that I work for, have moved to A (in Cupertino). There was a sudden need for people with experience here and so the company decided to bring a bunch of people from the branch in India, promising them that they would file GCs for them in EB1. These are not very senior guys either and have about the same experience as me. Over the past 3 months, I have seen several people who came here from the India branch. Our company filed for them in EB1 and to my surprise almost all of them got FP notices by now. And I thought to myself - here I am slogging for five years, and most likely will have to wait for one more.

I have read posts about Kazarian memo and how difficult things are for filing in EB1, but I guess that only applies for students/researchers who got their PhD here. I wonder what kind of restrictions exist / how strict USCIS is about the applications filed for manager positions in EB1. Apparently, our company lawyers seem to have found a quick way to get around those! Not very fair IMHO, and I am a victim of this as well!!

P.S: Btw, great site. My first post here. Almost relegiously visit it several times in the day. Finally, felt so emotional on this topic that I had to jump in and post.

[TheTexan]

You are right, if w are the ones who suffer then we are the ones who need to take action. I am not saying that all Eb1C are non-deserving but we certainly need to point the USCIS that this is exploited.

[Spectator]

I'm not going to rant about EB1C. It is a legal Category. Not many people would pass up the chance to get their GC quicker, given the chance.

I do think it is slightly out of whack with EB1A/B, which require a demonstration that the person is the "best of the best".

I do think EB1C could be improved if something similar were introduced to the criteria needed to achieve it.

Perhaps demonstrating that the position is "business critical" and tangible harm would be done by not granting an approval would be reasonable. I think that was more the intent of Congress when the law was passed.

I don't think simple metrics such as number of reports alone is a good measure - that is too easy to say, where the reality is rather different. Like EB1A/B, maybe that is part of the initial evidence, but a final merits determination would assess the criticality of the position to the business and why that person alone has to fill the position.

If nothing else, it would provide pause for thought before submitting the application.

At the end of the day, it requires legislation to change anything, which is a very unlikely prospect.

My last on the subject.

[mesan123]

i dont know ....bcoz i encountered couple of people who got there GC (thru EB1 manager catogery) who actually were not managers back in india. all together the 2 guys i am talking about had only 3 years of real time experience and did not work with this client before and there position in the client place was just Sr.developers. only advantage they had were they were sr.associates in there company for one year...which got them there GC in USA with in 6 months after they landed here :) .Well there own company's Tech lead could not file in that catogery bcoz he came to USA he was just Associate....


Well said, we all feel the pain but the way the current criteria’s are defined all one has to prove is that he / she has been a manager outside US for a year and currently is a manager with US and non US reports. Since EB1 is a category for the exceptional maybe USCIS and DOS should come up with a memo so that it can be reserved for truly exceptional managers (Unfortunately it may not be those who are good managers :)) but atleast people who have say a 100 plus reports or who command very high dollar revenues for an account or are part of executive management like (CEO, COO, CFO etc) of atleast a 100 people company. Most of the companies file for EB1 visas for those managers who have established some kind of good liaison with the end client and then they claim to their higher management that without them the project will be lost etc, it’s all about being at the right place at the right time there is not something very academic about it. Most success stories at client side are written by people who actually work 12 hours a day onsite and offshore and not by these managers however not everything is fair, quite often the people who come onsite and become coordinators and managers are never the best and brightest but they are masters in politics and pulling strings and beneficiaries of favoritism. I will end my ranting here :)

[qesehmk]

Spec,

At least soem people are saying that the category is fine. But its the fraud that is taking place in it that is hurting them.


I'm not going to rant about EB1C. It is a legal Category.

[bieber]

Eb1C can be effective if 'companies are not h1b dependent' clause is applied. or if they maintain h1b like strict regulations while approving L1s (this is already been happening and that's the reason Indian s/w MNCs are trying to hire people who are already on h1 here and willing to work through us local company)

[Spectator]

Spec,

At least soem people are saying that the category is fine. But its the fraud that is taking place in it that is hurting them.Q,

Sure, but it is not very productive to single out a specific part of the immigration system as fraudulent. Unfortunately, fraud affects every part of it and people would get their GC quicker if it was not present, whatever the Category.

The weak, objective nature of the Category is a larger problem, because that creates the loophole in the first place. If it exists, it will be exploited.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely agree. In fact my position has been that as long as somebody follows all rules, we shouldn't be complaining about those approvals regardless how weak the rules are. The simple reason being teh system needs to change not individuals. However in this case again - if there is fraud - while I may not choose to go ahead andcomplain - I do think that its understandable if somebody reports fraud.
Q,

Sure, but it is not very productive to single out a specific part of the immigration system as fraudulent. Unfortunately, fraud affects every part of it and people would get their GC quicker if it was not present, whatever the Category.

The weak, objective nature of the Category is a larger problem, because that creates the loophole in the first place. If it exists, it will be exploited.

[srimurthy]

knight

Generally I am very defensive about EB1C use by Indian companies but in this case I do agree that if true this is absolutely outrageous. I wonder if this practice is really widespread within all of EB1Cs ...

May be USCIS should really make EB1C very strict or simply abolish this category. Your example shows the fallacy of EB1C.


What was shared by Knight is true and I have heard a few more companies doing this. I also know of a few cases where people where on EB3 with a company and since there is no hope of this getting done soon, return to home land for a year or so and then come back with new designation and file under EB1.

[cbpds1]

Please go ahead and write, u are doing good karma !!


This is also rampant, especially in these guys who get it easily. 'kabhi sadi gali phul ke bhi aaya karo ji' , where we are waiting since eternity.

I am seriously considering reading up on EB1C and writing letter to DHS/USCIS to consider a memo like Kazarian to have a standard which comensurates the EB1. Frankly only fear of hassling with system while waiting for GC is holding me back.

[TeddyKoochu]

i dont know ....bcoz i encountered couple of people who got there GC (thru EB1 manager catogery) who actually were not managers back in india. all together the 2 guys i am talking about had only 3 years of real time experience and did not work with this client before and there position in the client place was just Sr.developers. only advantage they had were they were sr.associates in there company for one year...which got them there GC in USA with in 6 months after they landed here :) .Well there own company's Tech lead could not file in that catogery bcoz he came to USA he was just Associate....

As long as they were supervising a few associates or they were tech leads or team leads for a few associates in India for a year prior to coming to US the legal requirement is satisfied. Attorneys can then show this as Managerial experience in home country / outside US. As many others have said all these EB1C filings are within the purview of law as there are no hard definitions ascribed to managing, so someone managing 3 people is also fine as long as the company is ok going that route.

[leo07]

Guys, Yes, it's painful to see fraudulent cases getting approved while we wait for decades. But, it's the system that's at fault, we can notify and complain if we know of any fraud first-hand. Outside that there is no point bickering or hating any one, IMHO.

PS: That's Sukkhoi T-50 if you are wondering. Russia-India collaboration, which could get into IAF by 2013.

[mesan123]

You are right teddy...actually in real scenario they were not...no people were reporting to them when they were in india.....but the company attornies are good...who can show that...they were my friends......i dont blame them....i belive if our company gets us GC in 6 months ....no one will tell no :) ....but itz the companys who are really taking advantage of the law forsure.....




As long as they were supervising a few associates or they were tech leads or team leads for a few associates in India for a year prior to coming to US the legal requirement is satisfied. Attorneys can then show this as Managerial experience in home country / outside US. As many others have said all these EB1C filings are within the purview of law as there are no hard definitions ascribed to managing, so someone managing 3 people is also fine as long as the company is ok going that route.

[donvar]

This is also rampant, especially in these guys who get it easily. 'kabhi sadi gali phul ke bhi aaya karo ji' , where we are waiting since eternity.

I am seriously considering reading up on EB1C and writing letter to DHS/USCIS to consider a memo like Kazarian to have a standard which comensurates the EB1. Frankly only fear of hassling with system while waiting for GC is holding me back.



This is also rampant, especially in these guys who get it easily. 'kabhi sadi gali phul ke bhi aaya karo ji' , where we are waiting since eternity.


I am seriously considering reading up on EB1C and writing letter to DHS/USCIS to consider a memo like Kazarian to have a standard which comensurates the EB1. Frankly only fear of hassling with system while waiting for GC is holding me back.


Nishant and Knight
This is a blatant abuse. This is rampant in companies where founders/members had links with IV. CTS annually files around 450 EB1C primary applications. I dont know how come they need so many multinational managers.

These people must be taking around 7-8 K (Total EB1C -IC 12-14K, looking at EB1C consumption).

Simply writing to senators wont do the job. We should meet with some people to ask for stringent criteria assessment so that only genuine managers International/global managers get through EB1C.

Lets get together on this. I have sent you PM.

[soggadu]

hey this is offtopic... so please delete as needed....

I want to get Gandhi topi as i am going to participate in anna's fast this weekend for a day...any idea how and where i can get this??

Hey also, anybdy interested and in NJ...let me know... we can get together and fast for a good cause...

[gcseeker]

I just came across this news item which might affect general policy of the USCIS .

http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2011/08/immigration/xVwK5kIcuveuzkoAFlilFJ/index.html

"Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said today that the agency will launch a case-by-case review of 300,000 cases pending in immigration courts across the nation to focus on the federal government’s top priority, detaining and deporting criminals and serious violators of immigration law"

"Immigrants classified as low-priority cases could receive a stay of deportation and the chance to apply for a work permit."

Obama administration wants to weed out the criminals and leave the rest of the (illegal immigrants) eligible for an work permit.The article talks of the above.

People have many interesting theories for the July 2007 fiasco( boon for some ) ...One of them was historically George W Bush was pushing for Immigration reform as well in 2007 and it almost seemed like the bill would pass in Congress.Bush's bill was something similar to what the Obama administration is doing now. Grant temporary work permit visas to many illegal immigrants except the most criminal ones. The conspiracy theory goes USCIS expected an huge workload to come its way if the bill became law and decided to get rid of the its existing backlog and that was the reason it made both EB2 and EB3 current at the same time. The bill failed in congress badly and rest is history. ( I know logically DOS forced USCIS's hand but then why make EB3 current ....god knows)

Leaving aside the above theory.Just from the article above, it would make sense for the current administration which is losing huge popularity to regain some of the Latino vote base by providing them releif in courts and also issuing them work permits through the backdoor. I am just wondering what impact would this have on USCIS in terms of manpower and administrative procedures.

:) If it leads to an similar situation as 2007 would not complain...just saying.

[gcq]

gcseeker,

To add to the July fiasco theory, administration made everyone current not to ready USCIS for a heavy load of illegal applicants. Backlog of couple of 100 thousands of legal immigrants is nothing compared to millions of new illegal applicants.

The real reason for making everyone current is that legal immigrants who are waiting in the queue should be given priority over the millions of illegal immigrants that may apply as part of CIR. Even current administration has that idea. When they introduce CIR, they will flush out all current applications by approving them.

[ravisekhar]

I just came across this news item which might affect general policy of the USCIS .

http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2011/08/immigration/xVwK5kIcuveuzkoAFlilFJ/index.html

"Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said today that the agency will launch a case-by-case review of 300,000 cases pending in immigration courts across the nation to focus on the federal government’s top priority, detaining and deporting criminals and serious violators of immigration law"

"Immigrants classified as low-priority cases could receive a stay of deportation and the chance to apply for a work permit."

Obama administration wants to weed out the criminals and leave the rest of the (illegal immigrants) eligible for an work permit.The article talks of the above.

People have many interesting theories for the July 2007 fiasco( boon for some ) ...One of them was historically George W Bush was pushing for Immigration reform as well in 2007 and it almost seemed like the bill would pass in Congress.Bush's bill was something similar to what the Obama administration is doing now. Grant temporary work permit visas to many illegal immigrants except the most criminal ones. The conspiracy theory goes USCIS expected an huge workload to come its way if the bill became law and decided to get rid of the its existing backlog and that was the reason it made both EB2 and EB3 current at the same time. The bill failed in congress badly and rest is history. ( I know logically DOS forced USCIS's hand but then why make EB3 current ....god knows)

Leaving aside the above theory.Just from the article above, it would make sense for the current administration which is losing huge popularity to regain some of the Latino vote base by providing them releif in courts and also issuing them work permits through the backdoor. I am just wondering what impact would this have on USCIS in terms of manpower and administrative procedures.

:) If it leads to an similar situation as 2007 would not complain...just saying.

hope they do something for legals waiting in line to file for an EAD.

[mesan123]

Dont know where you can get it....and if u cant find it in NJ...u will not find in other places...i cant join u in person as i dont live in NJ...but I support to Anna fast...


hey this is offtopic... so please delete as needed....

I want to get Gandhi topi as i am going to participate in anna's fast this weekend for a day...any idea how and where i can get this??

Hey also, anybdy interested and in NJ...let me know... we can get together and fast for a good cause...

[bieber]

economy, most of the business leaders repeatedly insisted the importance of keeping legal immigrants in the country by making it easy for H1 and GC, which will help US economy

Politics, legal immigrants may help the economy but they won't impact the election like illegal immigrants because they outnumber the legals

administration chooses to go for second (while they may also do first in the process), it's all fine until the big sir will do the bus tour and tell some politicians (read reps) will put politics infront of country/economy except that he will do the exactly same thing

[TheTexan]

Here we are going by the books, enduring emotional stress, anxiety etc and the government decides to give amnesty to illegals. If I do something that is illegal, I get punished by law, these people came here illegally but they'll be awarded citizenship... just ranting... again... :-)

[mesan123]

100% true...


Here we are going by the books, enduring emotional stress, anxiety etc and the government decides to give amnesty to illegals. If I do something that is illegal, I get punished by law, these people came here illegally but they'll be awarded citizenship... just ranting... again... :-)

[donvar]

Nishant and Knight
This is a blatant abuse. This is rampant in companies where founders/members had links with IV. CTS annually files around 450 EB1C primary applications. I dont know how come they need so many multinational managers.

These people must be taking around 7-8 K (Total EB1C -IC 12-14K, looking at EB1C consumption).

Simply writing to senators wont do the job. We should meet with some people to ask for stringent criteria assessment so that only genuine managers International/global managers get through EB1C.

Lets get together on this. I have sent you PM.

Hi All

Do you want to do something about it ? I am interested in highlighting this EB1 abuse but need information about genuine cases like Qualcom and CTS. I also need a proper writeup before meeting with talking/meeting with someone.

Please reply to my post if you are interested.

[gcq]

Here we are going by the books, enduring emotional stress, anxiety etc and the government decides to give amnesty to illegals. If I do something that is illegal, I get punished by law, these people came here illegally but they'll be awarded citizenship... just ranting... again... :-)

Obama's change in immigration stance may have something to do with this following news
Rep. Gutierrez arrested outside White House for second time (http://thehill.com/homenews/house/173677-rep-gutierrez-arrested-outside-white-house-for-second-time)

[soggadu]

damn...thats my first earth quake experience...

[mesan123]

It was bad :) ....phone lines still not working here in MD...


damn...thats my first earth quake experience...

[qblogfan]

NIU said that Mr.Co wanted to set September VB to 7/1/2007 or even later.

But on the Friday before VB release date, USCIS told him not to move VB too much because of their heavy work load.

I think they just want to take nice vacations and have an easy going job and screw EB2 C&I. Nobody gives a damn about our long waiting.

There are many fat butts in USCIS, just like every other federal agencies.


Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

[sandeep11]

qblogfan,

You ain't happy with USCIS isn't it....;).I am just kidding..I have the same frustration too...

But is it possible that Mr CO woould listen to USCIS and wouldn't advance the dates just because they have heavy work load....something fishy here I guess.....the logic that they Mr CO gave that there was more demand on EB1 amd EB2 ROW makes more sense....


NIU said that Mr.Co wanted to set September VB to 7/1/2007 or even later.

But on the Friday before VB release date, USCIS told him not to move VB too much because of their heavy work load.

I think they just want to take nice vacations and have an easy going job and screw EB2 C&I. Nobody gives a damn about our long waiting.

There are many fat butts in USCIS, just like every other federal agencies.

[qesehmk]

sandeep

both are one and the same things. VO and USCIS need to work together and its a good thing. Increases predictability of the system.

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.

qblogfan,

You ain't happy with USCIS isn't it....;).I am just kidding..I have the same frustration too...

But is it possible that Mr CO woould listen to USCIS and wouldn't advance the dates just because they have heavy work load....something fishy here I guess.....the logic that they Mr CO gave that there was more demand on EB1 amd EB2 ROW makes more sense....

[nishant2200]

I think DOS has trusted USCIS to hold true on their word that a significant documentarily qualified demand will materialize soon for this FY for EB1 and EB2 ROW.

It would be really a big pity if USCIS doesn't deliver. I don't think any heads will roll, but may very well cause trust issues in future with DOS and USCIS, which may turn out good for us... in terms of a BTM.


qblogfan,

You ain't happy with USCIS isn't it....;).I am just kidding..I have the same frustration too...

But is it possible that Mr CO woould listen to USCIS and wouldn't advance the dates just because they have heavy work load....something fishy here I guess.....the logic that they Mr CO gave that there was more demand on EB1 amd EB2 ROW makes more sense....

[qblogfan]

Yeah, the thing I am worrying about is that USCIS provided wrong information to Mr.CO. Not many ROW are being approved and it's possible that some visas may go wasted. That will be a nightmare.

It's a black box and nobody knows whether there is real demand. Maybe it's an excuse from USCIS to lower their work load.

Apparently Mr.Co was planning to move the VB date beyond 7/1/2007, but the words from USCIS on August 5th destroyed many people's dreams. It's cold blooded.


I think DOS has trusted USCIS to hold true on their word that a significant documentarily qualified demand will materialize soon for this FY for EB1 and EB2 ROW.

It would be really a big pity if USCIS doesn't deliver. I don't think any heads will roll, but may very well cause trust issues in future with DOS and USCIS, which may turn out good for us... in terms of a BTM.

[ssvp22]

Yeah, the thing I am worrying about is that USCIS provided wrong information to Mr.CO. Not many ROW are being approved and it's possible that some visas may go wasted. That will be a nightmare.

It's a black box and nobody knows whether there is real demand. Maybe it's an excuse from USCIS to lower their work load.

Apparently Mr.Co was planning to move the VB date beyond 7/1/2007, but the words from USCIS on August 5th destroyed many people's dreams. It's cold blooded.

@qblogfan, friend you are not alone. Out here, i am tired to all the shit i need to take @work just cause i cannot change my job. My PD is so near, yet so far. Next 1 year might very well be like hell for quite a few in our boat. Also, looking at the initial estimates, my PD is right at the cusp of 2012/2013. Just thinking that i will get GC in 2013 makes me feel sick to the bones.

[cbpds1]

We need "Anna" for removing the I/C categories, seriously !!

[veni001]

USCIS SCOPS Presentation for the I-140 (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36359) PDF from AILA

or

USCIS SCOPS Presentation for the I-140 (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Upcoming%20National%20Engagements/National%20Engagement%20Pages/2011%20Events/August%202011/I-140%20Final.ppt) PPT from USCIS

[sandeep11]

Q, I agree and understand that DOS and USCIS work together and have been doing that for a while now I guess. What I meant to say is that, it looks absurd that Mr CO (DOS) wouldn't advance dates based on a input from USCIS that 'they are overloaded'. It doesn't look like a valid reason at all. Now both parties' goal is not ensure that no numbers are wasted however overloaded they might be. If USCIS doesn't keep up and eventually waste numbers then they are held accountable which might help Mr CO rethink next time around.

If at all based on the trackitt data EB1 and EB2 ROW aprovals have slowed down I truly believe atleast few of us are robbed of a chance here. While I am skeptical about any ammendment to the already released VB, I really hope this would be considered a lesson learnt by DOS and proper measure taken to curb it.





sandeep

both are one and the same things. VO and USCIS need to work together and its a good thing. Increases predictability of the system.

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.

[nishant2200]

USCIS SCOPS Presentation for the I-140 (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36359)

Veni, one very interesting slide (page 30):

Q. What classification types are eligible for Premium Processing
service (PPS)?
A. Currently, petitioners may request PPS on E11, E12, E21
(which is NOT requesting a National Interest Waiver), E31,
E32, and EW3 classifications.
As of now, PPS is not available for either E13 (Multinational
Executive or Manager) or E21 when requesting a National
Interest Waiver.
However, in light of Secretary Napolitano’s announcement on
August 2, 2011, USCIS will likely begin offering PPS for E13
petitions in early calendar year 2012.

other interesting slides:

slide 33: porting date from previous I-140

slide 37 : TSC slow on 140, nothing said definitively about backlog reduction effort, just said, we are trying

[qesehmk]

Veni

Thanks. Here is something that caught my eye!! And this could be seriously good for all EB23IC.

Look at the eligibiity for EB13 ie. multinational manager.

　
E13 – Multinational Executive or Manager
In general, the petition must be accompanied by evidence that:In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States:

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation or other legal entity or an affiliate or subsidiary thereof, and
The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer or to a subsidiary or affiliate thereof in a capacity that is managerial or executive.
IF TRUE (A BIG IF) this means they have removed the "having worked outside US" condition. I am really surprised and can't believe this. I personally would've been eligible 6 years back. Dang! Lets discuss this. If true, this could be the ticket to a lot of backlogged managers in big US corporations.


USCIS SCOPS Presentation for the I-140 (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36359)

[nishant2200]

I don't think that is true Q. But even if it is, why do you think this applies to only "big" US corporations.


Veni

Thanks. Here is something that caught my eye!! And this could be seriously good for all EB23IC.

Look at the eligibiity for EB13 ie. multinational manager.

　
E13 – Multinational Executive or Manager
In general, the petition must be accompanied by evidence that:In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States:

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation or other legal entity or an affiliate or subsidiary thereof, and
The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer or to a subsidiary or affiliate thereof in a capacity that is managerial or executive.
IF TRUE (A BIG IF) this means they have removed the "having worked outside US" condition. I am really surprised and can't believe this. I personally would've been eligible 6 years back. Dang! Lets discuss this. If true, this could be the ticket to a lot of backlogged managers in big US corporations.

[qesehmk]

Advancing dates is an operational procedure and doesnt fall under any law afaik. So VO does have a lot of discretion there. You are right, if USCIS cant deliver those EB1 and EB2ROW cases they said they are overloaded w then VO is going to have to eat teh crow.


Q, I agree and understand that DOS and USCIS work together and have been doing that for a while now I guess. What I meant to say is that, it looks absurd that Mr CO (DOS) wouldn't advance dates based on a input from USCIS that 'they are overloaded'. It doesn't look like a valid reason at all. Now both parties' goal is not ensure that no numbers are wasted however overloaded they might be. If USCIS doesn't keep up and eventually waste numbers then they are held accountable which might help Mr CO rethink next time around.

If at all based on the trackitt data EB1 and EB2 ROW aprovals have slowed down I truly believe atleast few of us are robbed of a chance here. While I am skeptical about any ammendment to the already released VB, I really hope this would be considered a lesson learnt by DOS and proper measure taken to curb it.

[veni001]

Veni

Thanks. Here is something that caught my eye!! And this could be seriously good for all EB23IC.

Look at the eligibiity for EB13 ie. multinational manager.

　
E13 – Multinational Executive or Manager
In general, the petition must be accompanied by evidence that:In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States:

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation or other legal entity or an affiliate or subsidiary thereof, and
The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer or to a subsidiary or affiliate thereof in a capacity that is managerial or executive.
IF TRUE (A BIG IF) this means they have removed the "having worked outside US" condition. I am really surprised and can't believe this. I personally would've been eligible 6 years back. Dang! Lets discuss this. If true, this could be the ticket to a lot of backlogged managers in big US corporations.

Q,
I think that is the requirement for L1A only, and majority of the EB1C applicants enter US on L1A!

[qesehmk]

Mean to say MNC. Doesn't even have to be a US MNC. It could be Tata or Samsung or Al Zajheera as long as they can prove they are MNC!!


I don't think that is true Q. But even if it is, why do you think this applies to only "big" US corporations.

[qesehmk]

Well ... the history is:

As far as I remember 4-5 years back the requirement was that the person shouldv'e worked for the same company outside of his home country (country of chargeability) and outside of US as a manager for 1 year within last 3 years and now trying to come to US as a manager.

Then last 2-3 years they dropped the "outside home country and outside US" condition silently. So suddenly infosys and all Indian managers became eligible.

Now I see that the slide doesn't even mention outside US.

I do not know if this is true. But if I were one of you and stuck in a backlog, the first thing I would do is check w company lawyer if the "outside US" condition is dropped for EB13.



Q,
I think that is the requirement for L1A only, and majority of the EB1C applicants enter on L1A!

[nishant2200]

:D

got it....



Mean to say MNC. Doesn't even have to be a US MNC. It could be Tata or Samsung or Al Zajheera as long as they can prove they are MNC!!

[Spectator]

Veni

Thanks. Here is something that caught my eye!! And this could be seriously good for all EB23IC.

Look at the eligibiity for EB13 ie. multinational manager.

　
E13 – Multinational Executive or Manager
In general, the petition must be accompanied by evidence that:In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States:

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation or other legal entity or an affiliate or subsidiary thereof, and
The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer or to a subsidiary or affiliate thereof in a capacity that is managerial or executive.
IF TRUE (A BIG IF) this means they have removed the "having worked outside US" condition. I am really surprised and can't believe this. I personally would've been eligible 6 years back. Dang! Lets discuss this. If true, this could be the ticket to a lot of backlogged managers in big US corporations.Q,

The requirement still appears to be there, albeit the way it is presented, obscures it a bit.

In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation

The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer

Those conditions can only be met if the beneficiary was working for the Company outside the USA beforehand.

More importantly perhaps, it is not something that can be "silently" dropped.

The conditions are enshrined in the INA.


203 (b)(1)(C)

(C) Certain multinational executives and managers.

An alien is described in this subparagraph if the alien, in the 3 years preceding the time of the alien's application for classification and admission into the United States under this subparagraph, has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation or other legal entity or an affiliate or subsidiary thereof and the alien seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer or to a subsidiary or affiliate thereof in a capacity that is managerial or executive.

The language in the SCOPS document is really just reiterating the language used in the INA.

[qesehmk]

Spec .... it seems they already silently dropped the "non-home-country" condition. I am very confident it was there earlier on.
Now if I look at the rules, again.... one can file CP to enter US. So as long as USCIS is willing to turn a blind eye the condition will be met. I do think its worth a shot.

I am actually encouraged by the INA description you provided. It keep the place of employment prior to entry to US vague.


Q,

The requirement still appears to be there, albeit the way it is presented, obscures it a bit.

In the 3 years preceding the time of the beneficiary's application for classification and admission into the United States

The beneficiary has been employed for at least 1 year by a firm or corporation

The beneficiary seeks to enter the United States in order to continue to render services to the same employer

Those conditions can only be met if the beneficiary was working for the Company outside the USA beforehand.

More importantly perhaps, it is not something that can be "silently" dropped.

The conditions are enshrined in the INA.



The language in the SCOPS document is really just reiterating the language used in the INA.

[Spectator]

Spec .... it seems they already silently dropped the "non-home-country" condition. I am very confident it was there earlier on.
Now if I look at the rules, again.... one can file CP to enter US. So as long as USCIS is willing to turn a blind eye the condition will be met. I do think its worth a shot.

I am actually encouraged by the INA description you provided. It keep the place of employment prior to entry to US vague.Q,

You have to realize that when the INA was originally written, there was no such thing as AOS, so the language will refer to entry using a visa after Consular Processing, since there was no other option when it was written.

Subsequent amendments may mention AOS, but the whole INA was never rewritten with conforming amendments to mention it.

If the 1 year employment is in the 3 years before the person enters the USA, then it must have taken place outside the USA. The use of the term "non-home-country" becomes entirely superfluous.

In any case, 8CFR provides further information about this, since that can be published to provide further information without having Congress amend the Law.


8CFR 204.5 (j)(3)(i)(A) and 204.5 (j)(3)(i)(B)

(3) Initial evidence--

(i) Required evidence.

A petition for a multinational executive or manager must be accompanied by a statement from an authorized official of the petitioning United States employer which demonstrates that:

(A) If the alien is outside the United States, in the three years immediately preceding the filing of the petition the alien has been employed outside the United States for at least one year in a managerial or executive capacity by a firm or corporation, or other legal entity, or by an affiliate or subsidiary of such a firm or corporation or other legal entity; or

(B) If the alien is already in the United States working for the same employer or a subsidiary or affiliate of the firm or corporation, or other legal entity by which the alien was employed overseas, in the three years preceding entry as a nonimmigrant, the alien was employed by the entity abroad for at least one year in a managerial or executive capacity;

(A) covers Consular Processing, because the beneficiary is outside the USA;
(B) essentially covers Adjustment of Status, unless the beneficiary elects CP because the beneficiary is already in the USA.

In both cases, the requirement that the previous 1 year employment was outside the USA is explicit.

Possibly, it is this regulation that you have seen previously.

[qesehmk]

Spec,as you may be aware CFR is interpretation of law. It is not law by itself. So having said that .... if when INA was written there was no such thing as AOS, that would make it more probable that anybody seeking to enter has to take CP route no matter where he/she is employed - so effectively killing any talk of having to be employed overseas.

If you read carefully the CFR only the AOS case they require "employed by same employer abroad condition". For CP it is not mentioned. I do not know what to make of it. But I would say this, that just like they silently dropped employed in non-home-country condition, they can easily drop the employed-abroad or employed-abroad-by-same-employer conditions since INA itself doesn't mention those conditions. At best its the CFR that mentions it.

Q,

You have to realize that when the INA was originally written, there was no such thing as AOS, so the language will refer to entry using a visa after Consular Processing, since there was no other option when it was written.

Subsequent amendments may mention AOS, but the whole INA was never rewritten with conforming amendments to mention it.

If the 1 year employment is in the 3 years before the person enters the USA, then it must have taken place outside the USA. The use of the term "non-home-country" becomes entirely superfluous.

In any case, 8CFR provides further information about this, since that can be published to provide further information without having Congress amend the Law.



(A) covers Consular Processing, because the beneficiary is outside the USA;
(B) essentially covers Adjustment of Status, unless the beneficiary elects CP because the beneficiary is already in the USA.

In both cases, the requirement that the previous 1 year employment was outside the USA is explicit.

Possibly, it is this regulation that you have seen previously.

[skpanda]

Is it possible to validate this officially from USCIS or anybody else? Whom do we contact?


Spec,as you may be aware CFR is interpretation of law. It is not law by itself. So having said that .... if when INA was written there was no such thing as AOS, that would make it more probable that anybody seeking to enter has to take CP route no matter where he/she is employed - so effectively killing any talk of having to be employed overseas.

If you read carefully the CFR only the AOS case they require "employed by same employer abroad condition". For CP it is not mentioned. I do not know what to make of it. But I would say this, that just like they silently dropped employed in non-home-country condition, they can easily drop the employed-abroad or employed-abroad-by-same-employer conditions since INA itself doesn't mention those conditions. At best its the CFR that mentions it.

[qesehmk]

Better to contact a lawyer if you think you could benefit from such a thing. Another thing to do is, contact aila and ask when the next meeting with USCIS is. That point you can raise these questions.


Is it possible to validate this officially from USCIS or anybody else? Whom do we contact?

[iamdeb]

USCIS SCOPS Presentation for the I-140 (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36359)

Thanks Veni for the link.
Regarding I 140 porting it seems that only the copy of the approved I140 is required.
I wonder what will happen if the old employer withdraws the I 140?

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/afm_ch22_091206R.pdf
page 27
read the determining priority date section



Thanks Veni for the link.
Regarding I 140 porting it seems that only the copy of the approved I140 is required.
I wonder what will happen if the old employer withdraws the I 140?

[piratla]

Looks like PWD issues have been resolved. Though there is no formal announcement yet.

Source: http://www.murthy.com/news/n_pwdiss.html

""
The Murthy Law Firm has started to receive Prevailing Wage Determinations (PWDs) from the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) as of August 24, 2011. This is newsworthy, as the DOL had ceased processing such requests in July, as explained in our NewsBrief, DOL Not Issuing Prevailing Wages: PERM Delays (15.Aug.2011).
""

[makmohan]

Friends, keep up the good work and thanks for your effort!

Based on all the predictions till date, is it correct to say that PD of last week April 2008 will probably become current in summer of 2013 and there is no probability of filing for 485 before that?

- M

[ssvp22]

Friends, keep up the good work and thanks for your effort!

Based on all the predictions till date, is it correct to say that PD of last week April 2008 will probably become current in summer of 2013 and there is no probability of filing for 485 before that?

- M
Going by the numbers, you are correct. But given the fact that next year is an election year, anything can happen.

[nayekal]

http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

08/25/2011: USCIS Clarifies Premium Processing Services Availability Schedule for EB-1C I-140 Petition for Multinational Corporate Executive and Manager

* According to the USCIS Notes of August 23, 2011 Service Center Operations Engagement Session, it is official that as of now, PPS is not available for either E13 (Multinational Executive or Manager) or E21 when requesting a National Interest Waiver. However, in light of Secretary Napolitano’s announcement on August 2, 2011, USCIS will likely begin offering PPS for E13 petitions in early calendar year 2012.

I guess, we will see lots of apps under this category in FY 2012, than what we have seen in FY 2011, which means spill over from EB1 will be reduced much further.

[ssvp22]

Funny that USCIS blog is focused on preparing for hurricane - http://blog.uscis.gov/2011/08/hurricane-preparedness-entire-east.html

[nishant2200]

Guys, I am again repeating, in the USCIS presentation which Veni posted earlier, it was written that EB1C PPS will only be considered from early calendar year 2012 onwards, and is not being done right now. I think that's a very good thing, as much that gets delayed.

[memk26]

Prevailing Wage Determinations started issuing...as per murthy..

[veni001]

Prevailing Wage Determinations started issuing...as per murthy..

Yes DOL started issuing PWD for PERM.
Now we can ignore the impact, if any, of about 4 week suspension of PW determinations for PERM.

[qesehmk]

Agree. No material impact to GC pipeline.

Yes DOL started issuing PWD for PERM.
Now we can ignore the impact, if any, of about 4 week suspension of PW determinations for PERM.

[veni001]

Updated as of 08/22/11 (http://icert.doleta.gov/)

Analyst Reviews - May 2011
Audits - December2010
Reconsideration Requests to the CO - January 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations - Current

Getting ready for another wave of backlog reduction!

[qesehmk]

On a different topic - learned today about an event in Phoenix Arizona this Saturday. The event is in support of the fight against corruption going on in India.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/India-Against-Corruption-Arizona/158357424247501

Please spread the word if you are in Pheonix Valley.

[soggadu]

On a different topic - learned today about an event in Phoenix Arizona this Saturday. The event is in support of the fight against corruption going on in India.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/India-Against-Corruption-Arizona/158357424247501

Please spread the word if you are in Pheonix Valley.

I attended the 1 day fast last saturday in NJ... it was fun...

[qesehmk]

way to go!
The gandhi cap is in demand but if NJ didn't have one ... no chance we will have one in AZ.
I attended the 1 day fast last saturday in NJ... it was fun...

[krodhityogi]

Pleasantly surprised to see the 8 month only Lag in PERM audits. When I got audited in 07, it frigging took them two years to get back to me.


Updated as of 08/22/11 (http://icert.doleta.gov/)

Analyst Reviews - May 2011
Audits - December2010
Reconsideration Requests to the CO - January 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations - Current

Getting ready for another wave of backlog reduction!

[qblogfan]

I can't believe these agencies can hold a case for two years. What kind of things do they need to check and take two years? 2 years waiting is inhumane!

These agencies don't care about our plans of future life. These fat asses only want to take long vacations and enjoy life. They don't care about the applicants and their families at all!

They just don't give a damn to what kind of impact this long wait can cause to the applicants. If a case is denied after two years waiting, the applicant may get screwed big time because he/she has to change plans for the future.

I don't think EB applicants are being treated in a humane way.


Pleasantly surprised to see the 8 month only Lag in PERM audits. When I got audited in 07, it frigging took them two years to get back to me.

[krodhityogi]

yes, my perm ended up being denied after a wait of 2 years+. the silver lining was the support from my company and my company's lawyers that provided all sorts of supporting documents asking the CO to reconsider the decision. In the end, the denial was overturned to approved.

i am thinking of relocating and filing another PERM in the near future, and the nightmares have started to come back. however, the above numbers provide some hope.



I can't believe these agencies can hold a case for two years. What kind of things do they need to check and take two years? 2 years waiting is inhumane!

These agencies don't care about our plans of future life. These fat asses only want to take long vacations and enjoy life. They don't care about the applicants and their families at all!

They just don't give a damn to what kind of impact this long wait can cause to the applicants. If a case is denied after two years waiting, the applicant may get screwed big time because he/she has to change plans for the future.

I don't think EB applicants are being treated in a humane way.

[qblogfan]

All the best to you and your family. I understand your frustration and it is a crazy system. You are lucky to get PERM approved after audit and hope you will get GC ASAP!


yes, my perm ended up being denied after a wait of 2 years+. the silver lining was the support from my company and my company's lawyers that provided all sorts of supporting documents asking the CO to reconsider the decision. In the end, the denial was overturned to approved.

i am thinking of relocating and filing another PERM in the near future, and the nightmares have started to come back. however, the above numbers provide some hope.

[Jan2008]

Hello All,

Sorry this is outside of the usual topic but I wanted to check if all the folks from the east coast are safe and sound after Hurricane Irene rolls out to the north tip of USA. Take care all!

P.s. Q, please feel free to delete this as this is outside the forum topic. Thanks!

[Jan2008]

Q & other Guru's,

I have a question and this is outside of the forum topic. One of my collegaue has a valid H1 till Sept 30, 2011. Despite pushing for renewal since June, her employer recently took up her case. They filed her LCA on Aug 24th and are planning premium processing for H1 renewal. What are her chances of getting approval before Sept 30, 2011? If she gets rejected (God forbid) and files I-539 (her Husband has valid H1 till Feb 2012) and does not hear back before Sept 30.. Is she out of status? Does she have to leave the country before H1 expires and get visa from home country? Please advice as she is not able to get a hold of her company lawyer.

[veni001]

Q & other Guru's,

I have a question and this is outside of the forum topic. One of my collegaue has a valid H1 till Sept 30, 2011. Despite pushing for renewal since June, her employer recently took up her case. They filed her LCA on Aug 24th and are planning premium processing for H1 renewal. What are her chances of getting approval before Sept 30, 2011? If she gets rejected (God forbid) and files I-539 (her Husband has valid H1 till Feb 2012) and does not hear back before Sept 30.. Is she out of status? Does she have to leave the country before H1 expires and get visa from home country? Please advice as she is not able to get a hold of her company lawyer.

Jan2008,
USCIS will make a decision within 15 days upon receipt for PP cases, assuming no RFE.

As long as H1B is filed by next week, +ve or -ve outcome should be known before current status expiration (in this case 09/30/11).

For what ever be the reason if your colleague is expecting -ve decission she can file for H1-->H4 by end of Sept'11.

[haripathhi]

To add to Q and Veni's replies,

If they are planning to file in Premium Processing, USCIS must send a reply within 15 days. In case they issue an RFE, based on the recent memo's regarding RFE's I think they have a month (from the RFE issue date) to respond (please google this info). Also, a candidate is legally able to stay in the country if they have filed for extension (just based on the receipt number) for 180 days (from the filing date). USCIS will answer any questions pertaining to the the filed petition only after 60 days of the filing date. Hope this info helps...Good luck to the candidate!


Q & other Guru's,

I have a question and this is outside of the forum topic. One of my collegaue has a valid H1 till Sept 30, 2011. Despite pushing for renewal since June, her employer recently took up her case. They filed her LCA on Aug 24th and are planning premium processing for H1 renewal. What are her chances of getting approval before Sept 30, 2011? If she gets rejected (God forbid) and files I-539 (her Husband has valid H1 till Feb 2012) and does not hear back before Sept 30.. Is she out of status? Does she have to leave the country before H1 expires and get visa from home country? Please advice as she is not able to get a hold of her company lawyer.

[qesehmk]

Those on east coast... enjoy the work from home.

[mesan123]

Hmm no work from home for most...as no power in there homes too ... i am lucky as i didnt loose power but towns next to me all dont hve power...


Those on east coast... enjoy the work from home.

[Govindagovinda]

Hi, i have been following q's blog for quiet a while quietly. I am really amazed to see your depth of knowledge in different areas.... Immigration to Economy.I love the comraderie among members and respect to others.Keep up the great work... u r the complete guide for a lot of people like me who are bad at number crunching and interpretation of technical jargon. Thanks to all of you....
Now coming to the point, i have a question......
I am working for a consulting firm, say A and work work as consultant for the client B. My client is offering me a permanent position.
My Priority date is December 2008. Don't remember the exact date. My employer is a nice guy and i think he will be fine with me taking the permanent position and don't withdraw I140.
My client starts GC process after 1 yr.
My question is if the dates become current before i get my new I140, whats going to happen? Can i still apply 485 with old I140?

[qesehmk]

That would be on the border of being considered a fraud. Why risk so much when your new 140 may already be on its way.

Technically if employer A would be willing to respond to any USCIS audit etc and say yes this would be future employment, possibly this could be ok. But still I think you have so many things going well for you, I really wouldn't recommend thinking of using old 140.

But lets see what other people think. I would be glad to be wrong.


Hi, i have been following q's blog for quiet a while quietly. I am really amazed to see your depth of knowledge in different areas.... Immigration to Economy.I love the comraderie among members and respect to others.Keep up the great work... u r the complete guide for a lot of people like me who are bad at number crunching and interpretation of technical jargon. Thanks to all of you....
Now coming to the point, i have a question......
I am working for a consulting firm, say A and work work as consultant for the client B. My client is offering me a permanent position.
My Priority date is December 2008. Don't remember the exact date. My employer is a nice guy and i think he will be fine with me taking the permanent position and don't withdraw I140.
My client starts GC process after 1 yr.
My question is if the dates become current before i get my new I140, whats going to happen? Can i still apply 485 with old I140?

[haripathhi]

Hi GG,

Welcome to this blog! If the dates become current (that's a big IF - going by the latest trend of DOS/USCIS) and you apply based on your old I-140 with your previous employer, there is a fat chance of a RFE.

Now here's the part that might be conducive to you: If your PD is Dec 2008, by the time your date becomes current, you'd have your latest I-140 in hand and ready to file I-485 through your new employer.

Good Luck!


Hi, i have been following q's blog for quiet a while quietly. I am really amazed to see your depth of knowledge in different areas.... Immigration to Economy.I love the comraderie among members and respect to others.Keep up the great work... u r the complete guide for a lot of people like me who are bad at number crunching and interpretation of technical jargon. Thanks to all of you....
Now coming to the point, i have a question......
I am working for a consulting firm, say A and work work as consultant for the client B. My client is offering me a permanent position.
My Priority date is December 2008. Don't remember the exact date. My employer is a nice guy and i think he will be fine with me taking the permanent position and don't withdraw I140.
My client starts GC process after 1 yr.
My question is if the dates become current before i get my new I140, whats going to happen? Can i still apply 485 with old I140?

[polarbear]

quick question - for the birth certificate "affidavit" that needs to be supplied as a supporting document, does anyone know how the affidavit can be obtained if the parents are not in India but in a third country (for example Dubai). will the affidavit have to be notarized at the Indian embassy in that country? Anyone in similar situation.

[TheTexan]

Hello All,

I am planning a trip to India next year and was thinking of spending some days in Frankfurt or Paris. I believe I'll require a schengen visa. Has anyone here obtained one before? Is too much of a hassle especially with out H1B - GC in process background?


Thanks.

[qesehmk]

I am planning a trip to India next year and was thinking of spending some days in Frankfurt or Paris. I believe I'll require a schengen visa. Has anyone here obtained one before? Is too much of a hassle especially with out H1B - GC in process background?


i don't see any problems .... you need to send your passport to a first country you will land in that region and get the visa. I had done it once but that was for business purpose. But I really don't know why they wouldn't give you tourist visa.

[donvar]

Some friends and I are doing a campain to push for quarter spillover. It will benefit both EB2C and EB2I.


What has been your plan so far in the campaign?



Q and other Gurus,
Would it help if we make an appointment with the CIS Ombudsman regarding this issue?


Before, we do that, we need to form a group.
Also, we need to see what action CIS Ombudsman would take , except just putting it down as recommendation later in 2012 report to USCIS.

[qblogfan]

We sent emails to local congress people and ask them to pay attention to the low consumption of EB visas in the Q1/Q2.

According to the law, CO should assign spillover on a quarter basis, but he is not doing that. His decision caused EB2 C&I addtional 6-9 months extra delay. I don't know whether you guys realized that or not. For example, if your PD is 5/10/2006 and you missed the summer of 2010. Due to Co's decision on yearly spillover, you had to wait to May or June 2011 to get your GC because EB2-I got stuck to 5/8/2006 for 9 months! Actually according to the law, you should have been greened in the first quarter of 2010!

I think CO knows this law, but it takes much efforts to get the statistics and he has to do more calculation every quarter. That can increase his work load significantly. Everybody wants to minimize his work load, but EB2 C&I are suffering more because of this!

One of our representatives sent an email to CO regarding this. CO said he will compensate EB2 C&I in the Q3 and Q4, but we are waiting for 6-9 months more! Why should EB2 C&I wait for 6-9 months more while they are rushing to approve EB1 and EB2 ROW in 2 months?

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration
and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter
will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment
preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to
the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will
be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.



What has been your plan so far in the campaign?




Before, we do that, we need to form a group.
Also, we need to see what action CIS Ombudsman would take , except just putting it down as recommendation later in 2012 report to USCIS.

[Kanmani]

CIS Ombudsman Annual Report is to Congress . So there is a chance for Judiciary committee members to come across some issue like this exists .
Moreover , USCIS is replying to ombudsman's recommendations , in view of possiblities to implement or otherwise.

Atleast achieving a recommendation to USCIS for implementaiton is a goal.

[qblogfan]

yes, we are trying to draw attention to this issue.

although it might not work, we still need to fight.

Thousands of EB2C-I applicants have been suffering for a long time. Our best ages of 20s-30s have been wasted on GC waiting because of somebody's misunderstandings of immigration laws. We need to fight and fix it.


CIS Ombudsman Annual Report is to Congress . So there is a chance of Judiciary committee members to come across some issue like this exists .
Moreover , USCIS is replying to ombudsman's recommendations , in view of possiblities to implement or otherwise.

Atleast achieving a recommendation to USCIS for implementaiton is a goal.

[donvar]

We sent emails to local congress people and ask them to pay attention to the low consumption of EB visas in the Q1/Q2.

According to the law, CO should assign spillover on a quarter basis, but he is not doing that. His decision caused EB2 C&I addtional 6-9 months extra delay. I don't know whether you guys realized that or not. For example, if your PD is 5/10/2006 and you missed the summer of 2010. Due to Co's decision on yearly spillover, you had to wait to May or June 2011 to get your GC because EB2-I got stuck to 5/8/2006 for 9 months! Actually according to the law, you should have been greened in the first quarter of 2010!

I think CO knows this law, but it takes much efforts to get the statistics and he has to do more calculation every quarter. That can increase his work load significantly. Everybody wants to minimize his work load, but EB2 C&I are suffering more because of this!

One of our representatives sent an email to CO regarding this. CO said he will compensate EB2 C&I in the Q3 and Q4, but we are waiting for 6-9 months more! Why should EB2 C&I wait for 6-9 months more while they are rushing to approve EB1 and EB2 ROW in 2 months?

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration
and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter
will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment
preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to
the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will
be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.

That compensation is never going to happen because CO will always get "fresh unexpected " EB1 and EB2Row demand in Q3 and Q4 and then the law will "prohibit" him to do so.

Any ideas what else we can do about it ? I think we should set up appointment with CO , ombudsperson and anybody we can speak to.

People , please give ideas.

[donvar]

CIS Ombudsman Annual Report is to Congress . So there is a chance for Judiciary committee members to come across some issue like this exists .
Moreover , USCIS is replying to ombudsman's recommendations , in view of possiblities to implement or otherwise.

Atleast achieving a recommendation to USCIS for implementaiton is a goal.

Getting the recommendation in which report ? You mean 2012 report and hoping that USCIS starts implementing it in FY 2013 ?

[qblogfan]

Yes, he will always find excuses to minimize the approvals of EB2 C&I. We sent him tons of emails, but he always replies with some excuses of nonsense.

Frankly many folks who got GC in this summer should have been greened in the first quarter of FY 2011 from Oct.-Dec.2010.

From Oct.-Dec.2010 only 24k GC was issued and totally there were 14k spillover in Q1 of FY 2011.

Folks waited for 9 extra months!


That compensation is never going to happen because CO will always get "fresh unexpected " EB1 and EB2Row demand in Q3 and Q4 and then the law will "prohibit" him to do so.

[donvar]

Yes, he will always find excuses to minimize the approvals of EB2 C&I. We sent him tons of emails, but he always replies with some excuses of nonsense.

Frankly many folks who got GC in this summer should have been greened in the first quarter of FY 2011 from Oct.-Dec.2010.

From Oct.-Dec.2010 only 24k GC was issued and totally there were 14k spillover in Q1 of FY 2011.

Folks waited for 9 extra months!

Who else we can talk to ? Is there anybody else to whom we can highlight this issue? If not anything we should at least make some noise.
Also, I think instead of sending emails, we should meet people who can highlight this issue.

[donvar]

If it is going to happen, Yes it should be in FY 2013 . Just a hope . We are not activists , I dont expect anyone here to go for hunger strike to achieve our goal in a month's time .

What else we can do as an individual ?

I am seeking ideas on any kind of legal proceeding to highlight this issue. However I know that he is not breaking any law.

[qesehmk]

Yes. The law granted him discretion in spilling over visas. All he is doing is he is making a wrong choice (from our perspective of course). So we need to "pyaarse usko samajhao". (i.e. cajole him into this rather than be confrontational). Second thing to understand is this decision is not his own .... so the cajoling needs to be beyond CO or VO. You also need to talk to USCIS.


I am seeking ideas on any kind of legal proceeding to highlight this issue. However I know that he is not breaking any law.

[donvar]

Yes. The law granted him discretion in spilling over visas. All he is doing is he is making a wrong choice (from our perspective of course). So we need to "pyaarse usko samajhao". (i.e. cajole him into this rather than be confrontational). Second thing to understand is this decision is not his own .... so the cajoling needs to be beyond CO or VO. You also need to talk to USCIS.

Yes. We need a list of stakeholders to speak to (CO , VO and USCIS ) .

Qblogfan,
I think sending emails wont do, we need to meet people and express our opinion. I think we should make a group.
Otherwise as you say CO is happily eating and sleeping and it does not effect him and he will continue to do so :-)

[polarbear]

With respect to past advocacy efforts that have involved specifically interacting with DoS ..... AFAIK none of the calculation/numbers specific recommendations is given much heed. Different approaches have been tried.At best a proposal is submitted to which no response is obtained over several months. As excited as we may be, that is the reality. Within the given law, DoS/CO are certain that they know what they are doing as far as visa number allocation is concerned and that is within the law. It may be against our interests , but the interpretation is wide open so no one can really claim the contrary. Good luck with the efforts though, if any.

[rdsingh79]

On a different topic....some nice words from Dr Kaku (Physicist) for H1Bs :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM

[qesehmk]

terrific video. I think that should be the attitude of every H1B. I have personally experienced that you have to be 3 times as better to get any promotion.


On a different topic....some nice words from Dr Kaku (Physicist) for H1Bs :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM

[visagcinfo]

People talk about abuse of H1b. Talk about abuse of H1b holders.
Great summary here (7 points posted by Q at #6947 & follow up posts supporting it) about what they do to EB-IC.
These agencies are like leave the head and catch the tail.. leave the big fishes and catch the small fishes.. to help solving country's problems.

[gccool]

On a different topic....some nice words from Dr Kaku (Physicist) for H1Bs :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM
rdsingh,
Thanks for sharing. Nice one!

[ssvp22]

On a different topic....some nice words from Dr Kaku (Physicist) for H1Bs :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM

The other guy on right was practically mumbling by the end. Ha

[nishant2200]

Wov, the doctor was full of energy. Guys, resisted a lot to be not off topic, but had to reply. Really amazing video.

Man I have seriously worked my a** off since last 7 years, nice to see some strong vindication of H1.


On a different topic....some nice words from Dr Kaku (Physicist) for H1Bs :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM

[ssvp22]

Wov, the doctor was full of energy. Guys, resisted a lot to be not off topic, but had to reply. Really amazing video.

Man I have seriously worked my a** off since last 7 years, nice to see some strong vindication of H1.

8 Years here. And not to mention almost no vacation(since i am contracting) and on-call work through all long-weekends and new years. I am happy working hard, but with 0% growth and work even when sick has changed my perspective a lot on being a immigrant. Will make sure my son does not have to follow the same path.

[rdsingh79]

Ten years in US, and 8 yrs on H1B. The wait is very frustrating:(.


8 Years here. And not to mention almost no vacation(since i am contracting) and on-call work through all long-weekends and new years. I am happy working hard, but with 0% growth and work even when sick has changed my perspective a lot on being a immigrant. Will make sure my son does not have to follow the same path.

[mesan123]

We chose this path....unknowing the long waits we have to put with for our GC's...and missing some many imp movements in our lifes.....where many people cant attend family functions or family losses....really very frustating :( .... dont know when these miseries will end...:mad:


Ten years in US, and 8 yrs on H1B. The wait is very frustrating:(.

[GCDespo]

I dont want to piss off every one. But want to add that we chose this path. When compared to our counterparts who have GC and Citizenship we did not gain much but when compared to general population here and outside the US we have gained monetarily.

Some times we have to think about the bright side guys

[ssvp22]

I dont want to piss off every one. But want to add that we chose this path. When compared to our counterparts who have GC and Citizenship we did not gain much but when compared to general population here and outside the US we have gained monetarily.

Some times we have to think about the bright side guys

Looking at brightside cannot in any way justify exploitation and injustice. Mahatma Gandhi ji studied law and went to practice in South Africa. He was definitely earning more and had better life than people in India. However he was not too happy with the exploitation in South Africa and did what was right - speak out against it. So, please, dont justify something wrong.

[qesehmk]

Ironically I agree with both views!


I dont want to piss off every one. But want to add that we chose this path. When compared to our counterparts who have GC and Citizenship we did not gain much but when compared to general population here and outside the US we have gained monetarily.

Some times we have to think about the bright side guys


Looking at brightside cannot in any way justify exploitation and injustice. Mahatma Gandhi ji studied law and went to practice in South Africa. He was definitely earning more and had better life than people in India. However he was not too happy with the exploitation in South Africa and did what was right - speak out against it. So, please, dont justify something wrong.

[GCDespo]

Looking at brightside cannot in any way justify exploitation and injustice. Mahatma Gandhi ji studied law and went to practice in South Africa. He was definitely earning more and had better life than people in India. However he was not too happy with the exploitation in South Africa and did what was right - speak out against it. So, please, dont justify something wrong.

Dont be So jumpy.Iam not justifying or not suggesting not to raise your voice against it.what i am suggesting is don't feel like you have lost your life .

[Kanmani]

Our case is different from what was happened in SA. Gandhi was fighting for the birth rights of citizens who were born in
SA to immigrant parents or ancenstors . I really dont know whether we have any right here as an ALIEN .

It is also true that Gandhi was a millionaire back home , But how many of us are financially settled
and courageous enough to raise our voice against exploitaton and injustice.

First of all no one is willing to speak against salary difference between a citizen and a H1b holder . We very well admit everything and
manage to live here because we are not ready to leave .

Infosys exploited the Visa system, and the Infosys employee , one who reported this visa fruad to USCIS was not an Indian .
All others shut their mouth and worked here for what?

I am not trying to be against anyone's view instead this is what I am thinking right now.

[leo07]

ok. back to predictions...any takes on October Bulletin?

[veni001]

Our case is different from what was happened in SA. Gandhi was fighting for the birth rights of citizens who were born in
SA to immigrant parents or ancenstors . I really dont know whether we have any right here as an ALIEN .

It is also true that Gandhi was a millionaire back home , But how many of us are financially settled
and courageous enough to raise our voice against exploitaton and injustice.

First of all no one is willing to speak against salary difference between a citizen and a H1b holder . We very well admit everything and
manage to live here because we are not ready to leave .

Infosys exploited the Visa system, and the Infosys employee , one who reported this visa fruad to USCIS was not an Indian .
All others shut their mouth and worked here for what?

I am not trying to be against anyone's view instead this is what I am thinking right now.

Kanmani,
Forget about H1B fighting for injustice, due to his extreme dependence on employer for GC.

I don't think things are different in EVC model even after GC, and lot of people are working in that model after getting GC. But how many of them are fighting against injustice, if any.

Bottom line is, it is the choice we make!

[nishant2200]

ok. back to predictions...any takes on October Bulletin?

I think India will stay put at 15-april-2007

China might advance by at the most 2 weeks.

[soggadu]

hey... who wants a holiday on monday???

[nishant2200]

The first report seems right. The second one is clearly messed up.

I hope when CO asks USCIS, hey, need to move past 15-Aug-2007, how many 140s, need to decide based on that, and they send this report :)

[mesan123]

Hmm...i think everone wants long weeked...:o


hey... who wants a holiday on monday???

[cbpds1]

you can still go and work on Monday :)


hey... who wants a holiday on monday???

[ravisekhar]

I dont want to apply fot PIO or OCI card for my daughter. i want to apply for Indian Visa. Can some one tell me under which visa category should i apply ? Can we just apply for tourist visa ?


Thanks
Ravi Menta

[veni001]

I dont want to apply fot PIO or OCI card for my daughter. i want to apply for Indian Visa. Can some one tell me under which visa category should i apply ? Can we just apply for tourist visa ?


Thanks
Ravi Menta

ravisekhar,
Yes, that will be tourist VISA. Please check the restrictions on tourist VISA before applying.

I would recommend PIO.