EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[qesehmk]

Please visit EB2 thread to see details.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)

This thread only contains incremental information.

Background

Here is an attempt to establish clarity to EB3. First lets understand the situation. Today there are about 114K 485 cases of EB3 (50% India and 35% ROW). However there are an additional 103K cases sitting at NVC. These cases belong to people who typically are waiting in their home countries to get a visa. The goliath here is philipines (45%) followed by ROW (25%) and India (20%).

So unlike EB2 the situation is complicated because A) number of backlog is huge B) in addition to China/India, even Mexico Philipines and ROW is backloged. What this does is it creates very very little room for any SOFAD or extra visas for any other countries. So lets analyze how the outlook is for each country.


Summary

EB3 is in a very tight spot where the dates will progress slowly. The annual demand in these categories exceed supply by a large number. Until now these categories used to received extra visas from other categories but with the changes in spillover (from vertical to horizontal), these categories are now starved. ROW is the only place where the dates could move significantly faster.

However the way EB2ROW and EB1 are stalled in terms of processing of 2011 filed 485s, & EB2's inability to generate enough demand to consume all SOFAD, there is a significant chance that EB3 will see some SOFAD.

It is not yet clear if the SOFAD receivd by EB3 will be applied strictly in PD order or will go towards ROW-EB3 until ROW-EB3 has either no demand or fulfilled 7% condition.

Details - (To be Updated - Expect to update before 21 Jun 2011)

Summary of EB3 Situation in 2011 USCIS Fiscal:
2011 Total Visa Demand - ~222K (includes 485 and CP) (However 90K demand is probably CP demand from recent years rather than backlogged years).
2011 Total Visa Availability - ~40K (of which potentially 10K goes to Other workers).

EB3 should receive some fall- across from EW. EB3 shouldn't expect any SOFAD from EB2 and as such following chart is of not much use to them. But still providing it.

Outlook for India
2011 Total Demand - 79K
2011 Total Availability - 3K + 4K fall across
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 02. Expect a movement of 8 months by Sep 2011. If no EB2 conversions then 3 months max movement. If we see 2-5K conversions then the dates could move upto August 2002.

Outlook for China
2011 Total Demand - 6K
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 22 Nov 03. Expect a movement upto May 05 by Sep 2011. (However this is a bit dicey since we do not know whether new CP demand will kick in as dates progress.

Outlook for Mexico
2011 Total Demand - 5K
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 1 May 01. This is quite puzzling since based on published inventory and assumed CP demand, mexico is light on EB3. Only based on that "known" data, the dates should move into Q3 2005. But for whatever reason Mexico is moving very slow. Don't know why as of now. The reason could be because of district office demand which is not reflected in either numbers.


Outlook for Philipines
2011 Total Demand - 55K (of which 14K is total demand that is from backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement upto nov-05 by Sep 2011.

Outlook for ROW
2011 Total Demand - 70K (of which 44K pertains to backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 25K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement through Jun 2006 by Sep 2011.

Outlook for EW / Other Workers
2011 Total Demand - 17K (of which only 1K seems to be backlogged.)
2011 Total Availability - 5K
The date as of now is around 1 apr 03 (except India and Mexico). Its very difficult to predict date movement because of number of uncertainties. 1) 485 inventory increased between 09-10 even when dates were not current. 2) CP inventory is 16 times that of 485 and not sure how much was taken care in 09. 3) Not sure of the visa usage relationship between EW and EB3 as well as whether 5K is entitlement or just upper limit. Sorry guys .. will update if we get better answers. If I were to bet I will say the date should move at least 2 years.


Note: There are some nuances between other workers and EB3. But right now I haven't considered those.

Summary
EB3 is relatively simple at macro level to predict because of the huge backlog. Very slow movements everywhere except EB3 ROW. Some conversions in EB3I. I know for those waiting for a GC this is quite painful. However our objective is to establish clarity to this whole process. Good luck!

EB3 needs a CIR.

[gcq]

Why do you think only EB3 has "dark inventory" ?

[qesehmk]

Its because they have more number of years pending. Whereas EB2 has already cleared the old labor days. Makes sense?

[gcq]

Its because they have more number of years pending. Whereas EB2 has already cleared the old labor days. Makes sense?

agree. There could be lot of unknowns from all these years of pending inventory. It shouldn't be that bad for EB3 categories except Mexico as all 245(I) cases have been cleared for all other countries.

[qesehmk]

Friends EB3 is now updated. Please refer to the head of the thread. Good luck!

[gcq]

Friends EB3 is now updated. Please refer to the head of the thread. Good luck!

Thanks for the update Q.
What is the source for CP numbers ?

[qesehmk]

Thanks for the update Q.
What is the source for CP numbers ?

NVC data from Nov 2009.

[rtmx]

Thanks Q.

I'm in a minority group of EW ROW.

Can I use EB3 ROW prediction for EW(otherworkers) ROW for any bit?

My PD is June 15 2003, with current CD April 1 2003.

I did hope to see CD moving to June 22 2003 by the time March Bulletin is out

But I'm losing most hopes now since it seems my son probably will be aged-out by the time I'm greened.

Such prediction comes from the fact that there was no 2007/7 boat for the other workers.

What do you think Q?

[qesehmk]

rtmx, you can't use EB3 ROW for EB3 EW. The reason being those two behave quite irrespective from each other it seems.

I do not have a lot of insight into how they are related from visa usuage perspective. However here are a few things for your consideration.

Today there are ONLY 633 ROW total cases for 485. However there could be as much as 6700 cases in counselar processing. 6700 is the number from Nov 2009. I would imagine that many of these people got their numbers last year itself. However in 2010 the quota is also reduced from 10K to 5K for EW and so for ROW teh quota goes from 7200 to 3600.

At teh same time, EW category is weird. Somehow the 485 applications increased between Dec 09 and Oct 10 inventories!! Which indicates that USCIS doesn';t have a good handle on that inventory.

Number wise you do have a good chance to get GC this year. But there are so many unknowns I hesitate to say so. Regarding your son, isn't his status protected as long as 485 is filed? Have you filed a 485?




Thanks Q.

I'm in a minority group of EW ROW.

Can I use EB3 ROW prediction for EW(otherworkers) ROW for any bit?

My PD is June 15 2003, with current CD April 1 2003.

I did hope to see CD moving to June 22 2003 by the time March Bulletin is out

But I'm losing most hopes now since it seems my son probably will be aged-out by the time I'm greened.

Such prediction comes from the fact that there was no 2007/7 boat for the other workers.

What do you think Q?

[qesehmk]

Head of the thread updated to more accurately reflect EW numbers.

[rtmx]

To the best of my knowledge,
I am not allowed to file a I-485 until my priority date is current. Thus it is impossible to lock my son's age until the visa bulletin allows me to
(correct me if i'm in the wrong though)

Child Status Protection Act helps reduce the children's ages by the pending time for I-140 petition.
But it is somewhat outdated in a sense that it fails to protect status of children of those under severe backlogs.

[qesehmk]

You are right. I didn't realize that some or all EW missed 2007 boat. I thought you already are in 485 stage.

p.s. - Just checked ... EW was the only category that was NOT current during July 2007 fiasco. So unfortunate.


To the best of my knowledge,
I am not allowed to file a I-485 until my priority date is current. Thus it is impossible to lock my son's age until the visa bulletin allows me to
(correct me if i'm in the wrong though)

Child Status Protection Act helps reduce the children's ages by the pending time for I-140 petition.
But it is somewhat outdated in a sense that it fails to protect status of children of those under severe backlogs.

[seand]

Q,

The summary should say 25K plus for EB3 ROW (available) not 22K. Small correction.

Also how did you predict that EB3 ROW would move to Sep 2005? Is this a short term or long term prediction, long term being @ end of Sept 2011?

If there are 25K plus available EB3 ROW should move upto March - May 2006 in my opinion.

[qesehmk]

seand

thank you. Updated and corrected the header. Also updated the forecast model in the header a bit.
While predicting date movement one can't just look at 485 data there is ton of cases for CP at NVC that also need to be accounted for. That is the reason teh movement is less than expected for EB3ROW. Does that make sense?


Q,

The summary should say 25K plus for EB3 ROW (available) not 22K. Small correction.

Also how did you predict that EB3 ROW would move to Sep 2005? Is this a short term or long term prediction, long term being @ end of Sept 2011?

If there are 25K plus available EB3 ROW should move upto March - May 2006 in my opinion.

[seand]

USCIS INV Oct 1 2010 - EB3 ROW

1997 - End 2004=====3337
2005==============12403
Jan-06=============1444
Feb-06=============1457
Mar-06=============1835
Apr-06=============1236

Tot AOS Cases=======21712

Est CP backlog (15%)==3256

Total potential usage==24969

This is an estimate using the USCIS backlog as of Oct 1 2010. If we just go by the backlog and estimated CP cases (15%) the PD should move to April of 2006. Few things to keep in mind:

1) There can't be many CP cases left 1997 - May 2005. Last time PD passed 2005 it stayed in May for several months. This should have flushed all the CP cases prior to that. CP cases get closed within 3 - 4 months most of the time. But I still calculated the 15% for this time period. This over estimation will help offset the dark demand from district offices and unaccounted cases still with USCIS.

2) Second point I want to make is when you look at the demand data for DoS it does not see all the actual backlog as current demand. That means DoS will most likely move dates a few months more to include more cases. If we go only by DoS demand data the PD should Move to June or July 2006. We are talking about 3 to 4 thousand cases not showing up in the DoS demand at any given time. I have also taken this into account as a buffer to mitigate the impact from the dark demand and unaccounted cases out there.

So my estimate is that the PD should move to Jul/Aug 2005 within the next 3 months or so and we should see the PD moving upto April 2006 give or take a month or two by Sep 2011. Total EB3 ROW allocation for FY2011 should be around 25K visas.

[qesehmk]

Seand

Will reply to you in a day. But yes I do agree that ROW will move significantly. Please see the head of the thread is now updated based on new CP assumptions.



USCIS INV Oct 1 2010 - EB3 ROW

1997 - End 2004=====3337
2005==============12403
Jan-06=============1444
Feb-06=============1457
Mar-06=============1835
Apr-06=============1236

Tot AOS Cases=======21712

Est CP backlog (15%)==3256

Total potential usage==24969

This is an estimate using the USCIS backlog as of Oct 1 2010. If we just go by the backlog and estimated CP cases (15%) the PD should move to April of 2006. Few things to keep in mind:

1) There can't be many CP cases left 1997 - May 2005. Last time PD passed 2005 it stayed in May for several months. This should have flushed all the CP cases prior to that. CP cases get closed within 3 - 4 months most of the time. But I still calculated the 15% for this time period. This over estimation will help offset the dark demand from district offices and unaccounted cases still with USCIS.

2) Second point I want to make is when you look at the demand data for DoS it does not see all the actual backlog as current demand. That means DoS will most likely move dates a few months more to include more cases. If we go only by DoS demand data the PD should Move to June or July 2006. We are talking about 3 to 4 thousand cases not showing up in the DoS demand at any given time. I have also taken this into account as a buffer to mitigate the impact from the dark demand and unaccounted cases out there.

So my estimate is that the PD should move to Jul/Aug 2005 within the next 3 months or so and we should see the PD moving upto April 2006 give or take a month or two by Sep 2011. Total EB3 ROW allocation for FY2011 should be around 25K visas.

[seand]

Hi Q,

Good to see you back, the site was dead for few days...

Well, I listened to a voice message by Charles O the other day. Another blogger was nice enough to email that to me. This was directly from CO answering a question about July 2005 PD for EB3 ROW. Well, according to that VM the situation looks pretty grim, looks like there is a huge dark demand, his current prediction is July 2005 becoming current May - June or July or next year. There are only about 6 thousand cases in the USCIS backlog for that period, so that must mean a big dark demand, as CP demand we know is not that much, you can tell that by looking at the demand data.

So ROW folks should wait and see... Also CO will issue a prediction for the rest of the year in the Dec/Jan VB that will cover the picture for the whole year.

[qesehmk]

Seand, CO can't get any more pessimistic. That's his job not to inflate anybody's hopes. He is doing that based on the 70K or so demand. But in reality only 44K pertains to backlogged years(IMHO). So EB3 should see movement into 2006 going into July 2011.


Hi Q,

Good to see you back, the site was dead for few days...

Well, I listened to a voice message by Charles O the other day. Another blogger was nice enough to email that to me. This was directly from CO answering a question about July 2005 PD for EB3 ROW. Well, according to that VM the situation looks pretty grim, looks like there is a huge dark demand, his current prediction is July 2005 becoming current May - June or July or next year. There are only about 6 thousand cases in the USCIS backlog for that period, so that must mean a big dark demand, as CP demand we know is not that much, you can tell that by looking at the demand data.

So ROW folks should wait and see... Also CO will issue a prediction for the rest of the year in the Dec/Jan VB that will cover the picture for the whole year.

[seand]

Do you think this district demand is still an issue or not? I thought the numbers should be factored into the regular demand already.

I agree CO did the same thing last year but in the end he did move EB3 ROW PD beyond his predictions....

[qesehmk]

Do you think this district demand is still an issue or not? I thought the numbers should be factored into the regular demand already.

I agree CO did the same thing last year but in the end he did move EB3 ROW PD beyond his predictions....

After looking at IVAMS data I think district demand is factored in.

[Spectator]

Q,

I don't quite understand your latest figures for EB3 in the spreadsheet.

You are giving an extra 3,960 visas to I & C SOFAD.

That can't and won't happen for a number of reasons.

1) Since I & C will reach their respective 7% limits, any spare visas would go to ROW.

2) In fact, (1) does not happen due to how the 7% limit is calculated.

It is convenient to calculate the 7% limit within each Category, but this is not how it is laid down in the law. The 7% figure is calculated on the total of FB and EB visa limits. Normally this distinction is not important, but it is in EB3 for both Mexico and Philippines.

Since both M & P reach their FB quotas, we can look at it based on the EB totals alone, which makes it easier to understand.

For 140,000 EB visas, 7% represents 9,800 visas.

Both M & P have very low usage of visas in EB categories other than EB3, so they can (and do) consume far more EB3 visas than the notional 2,803 based on EB3's 40,040 allocation. They still stay within the 9,800 overall limit.

In FY2008, M & P consumed an extra 5,000 visas (M=+2.1k, P=+2.9k) and in FY2009 they consumed an extra 4,500 visas (M=1.8k, P=+2.7k).

Since, I & C should consume their own share of 2,803 and 2,503 respectively, these extra visas are effectively taken from ROW allocation.

It is not entirely clear what happened in FY2010. Mexico went Unavailable very quickly. Did VO do this when they reached the 3k figure for EB3 or the 10.5k overall figure for Mexico?

On the basis that M & P consume an extra 4,000 visas between them in FY2011 (pure guess), then the effective ROW allocation for EB3/EW becomes 29,129 - 4,000 = 25,129 This has a significant effect on how far ROW can progress.

In the spreadsheet, I believe IC Consumption (SOFAD) should read a combined total of 5,306 for EB3/EW, as the previous version showed.

My understanding of the EB3 / EW relationship is as follows:

Both categories compete on an equal footing for the visas available by PD date. There is no separate quota as such for EW, only an upper limit to the total they can consume.

Out of interest, EW has not reached its quota in recent years for which data is available.

Something to ponder anyway.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I don't quite understand your latest figures for EB3 in the spreadsheet.

You are giving an extra 3,960 visas to I & C SOFAD.

That can't and won't happen for a number of reasons.

1) Since I & C will reach their respective 7% limits, any spare visas would go to ROW.

2) In fact, (1) does not happen due to how the 7% limit is calculated.

It is convenient to calculate the 7% limit within each Category, but this is not how it is laid down in the law. The 7% figure is calculated on the total of FB and EB visa limits. Normally this distinction is not important, but it is in EB3 for both Mexico and Philippines.

Since both M & P reach their FB quotas, we can look at it based on the EB totals alone, which makes it easier to understand.

For 140,000 EB visas, 7% represents 9,800 visas.

Both M & P have very low usage of visas in EB categories other than EB3, so they can (and do) consume far more EB3 visas than the notional 2,803 based on EB3's 40,040 allocation. They still stay within the 9,800 overall limit.

In FY2008, M & P consumed an extra 5,000 visas (M=+2.1k, P=+2.9k) and in FY2009 they consumed an extra 4,500 visas (M=1.8k, P=+2.7k).

Since, I & C should consume their own share of 2,803 and 2,503 respectively, these extra visas are effectively taken from ROW allocation.

It is not entirely clear what happened in FY2010. Mexico went Unavailable very quickly. Did VO do this when they reached the 3k figure for EB3 or the 10.5k overall figure for Mexico?

On the basis that M & P consume an extra 4,000 visas between them in FY2011 (pure guess), then the effective ROW allocation for EB3/EW becomes 29,129 - 4,000 = 25,129 This has a significant effect on how far ROW can progress.

In the spreadsheet, I believe IC Consumption (SOFAD) should read a combined total of 5,306 for EB3/EW, as the previous version showed.

My understanding of the EB3 / EW relationship is as follows:

Both categories compete on an equal footing for the visas available by PD date. There is no separate quota as such for EW, only an upper limit to the total they can consume.

Out of interest, EW has not reached its quota in recent years for which data is available.

Something to ponder anyway.

Spec you really laid it out very nicely. I concede the point. I had overlooked this fact that EW is not really a separate category. In my spreadsheet I am treating it like one and hence the confusion. Will fix it soon.

p.s. - Regarding your observation about EW not reaching its quota .... whats more amusing is that yet the dates are not moving forward. Wondering if it is because EW has huge CP backlog? Don't know.

[Spectator]

I thought it time to write something about EB3, since it seems sadly neglected as a forum. Please treat this as a discussion point.

Personally, this seem far more complicated than EB2 and several facts have made that even more so.

Charles Oppenheim of the Visa Office has stated that he believes 45% of EB3 is District Office cases. On the other hand, USCIS said that in June 2010, there were 23,000 cases at District Offices.

There is no context to CO statement. I don't think he can mean 45% of the TOTAL EB3 pending cases. One way to reconcile both statement is to say that by the time FY2011 started, there were 18k DO cases remaining. With 40k approvals for FY2011 allowed, 18/40 is 45%.

In any case, the VO seems to be acting as if there are 45% DO cases, as this amount would explain the progress of the Cut Off dates so far this year.

What is not clear, is over what time period the DO cases will be exhausted. If it all happens in one year, then Cut Off date progress would be painfully slow.

If it happens over more than one year, the effective % decreases. I don't think anyone knows the answer to this and prediction becomes almost impossible.

The best I can do is to present a range of values and people can choose accordingly. The figure below assume 15% Consular Processed cases in addition to the DO cases.

INDIA

To date this year:

EB3-I

--VB-- --- -Cut Off- --- Avge DO
Oct 10 --- 15-JAN-02 --- - 08% -
Nov 10 --- 22-JAN-02 --- - 30% -
Dec 10 --- 22-JAN-02 --- - 53% -
Jan 10 --- 01-FEB-02 --- - 49% -

If a DO rate of 45% was sustained throughout the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 05-APR-02.

If the DO rate averaged 25% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 22-APR-02 or 01-MAY-02.

If the DO rate averaged 10% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-MAY-02.

Any positive effect from EB3-EB2 Porting would improve this, but I don't believe very many people with such early PDs would have Ported.


REST OF WORLD (Excl. China, India, Mexico, Philippines)

To date this year:

EB3-ROW

--VB-- --- -Cut Off- --- Avge DO
Oct 10 --- 08-JAN-05 --- - 08% -
Nov 10 --- 22-JAN-05 --- - 45% -
Dec 10 --- 22-FEB-05 --- - 55% -
Jan 10 --- 22-MAR-05 --- - 47% -

If a DO rate of 45% was sustained throughout the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 22-NOV-05.

If the DO rate averaged 25% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-FEB-06.

If the DO rate averaged 10% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-APR-06.


PHILIPPINES

No predictions for the Philippines, only observations.

Philippines has by far the highest % of Consular Processed cases at 35-40%.

To date it has managed to keep pace with EB3-ROW, but this may not continue for long, despite the fact they regularly use far more than the notional 7% limit within EB3 (5,536 in FY2009).

The DOS Demand Data suggests that Philippines has the largest number of cases for 2006 as a single Country at more than 12k. ROW has around 20k.

The NVC data shows Philippines as having 45k EB3 cases waiting to be processed. These numbers must lie in the future although there is some double counting between the Demand and NVC numbers and many will be post the current I-485 backlog.

The inescapable conclusion is that at some point (possibly this FY, but almost certainly next FY), EB3-Philippines must retrogress to a point earlier than ROW. Given future numbers implied by the NVC data, this will be a continuing trend.

It probably also makes sense because visa relief for Schedule A essentially ceased after FY2006.

Overall, EB3-Philippines may just be able to progress at the same rate as EB3-ROW in FY2011, but it might be a struggle towards the end of the year if ROW moves into 2006.


CHINA

Another Country with very high Consular Processing at around 30%. That might explain why they were harder hit by the under-allocation of EB3 visas in FY2008 and FY2009.

No predictions other than to say that the DOS Demand data says they should progress well into 2004 this FY.


MEXICO

I don't even claim to understand EB3-Mexico.

Another Country that regularly exceeds the notional 7% EB3 limit.

The Cut Off dates swing wildly, which suggests there is a lot of demand that is invisible to the VO.

Has a low Consular Processing ratio of 5% and used 4,566 EB3 visas in FY2009.

Both USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand show relatively small numbers, yet it went Unavailable from May in FY2010, the Cut Off Date started the year at 22APR01 and rapidly advanced to 15APR03 in January 2011.

Who can tell.

[gcq]

Pardon my ignorance.

Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?

[qesehmk]

MEXICO

I don't even claim to understand EB3-Mexico.

Another Country that regularly exceeds the notional 7% EB3 limit.

could it be because mexico has low eb2 demand? may be uscis is applying 7% overall?


Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?

It seems they don't even touch cases that are away from the "current date" and hence the invisibility.

[Spectator]

could it be because mexico has low eb2 demand? may be uscis is applying 7% overall?Yes, as with the Philippines, that is why Mexico can exceed the "notional" 7% limit within EB3. Neither Country exceeds the 7% overall within EB. Each year, this factor costs EB3-ROW 4.5k to 5k visa allocation.


Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?
Your understanding is correct, but as you say, the case is only entered into IVAMS after the interview has been successfully concluded.

Only then is the case visible to the Visa Office.

But, there are thousands of cases at District Offices where the interview has not yet taken place. Since these are not in the IVAMS system, nor part of the USCIS Service Center Inventory, they are not visible to the Visa Office.

The Visa Office uses the number of cases they are aware of to set the Cut Off dates in the Visa Bulletin.

If the Visa Office suddenly becomes aware of a large number of cases which they didn't know about previously, then they might have to retrogress the Cut Off dates, or move them forward more slowly, since they would have more cases than visas available.

The supply of visas for the year is fixed. Every "invisible" case with a current PD that becomes apparent means that Cut Off dates will not advance as much as expected and that one case from the known demand will not be approved in the Fiscal Year.

[isantem]

Outlook for ROW
2011 Total Demand - 70K (of which 44K pertains to backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 25K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement through Jun 2006 by Sep 2011.



Dear Friends!

Thank you very much for your efforts to clarify the future of EB immigrants.
I am EB3 ROW with a priority date of January 10 2009.
Based on your figures I don’t have any chances to get my greencard in this fiscal year or next one, but how about 2013 fiscal year? Is that a realistic hope for me?

Thank You Very Much!!!

[qesehmk]

Isantem

Welcome to the forum. Since the EB3ROW annual demand seems to equal supply (at least for now) .... 4 years from now seems a reasonable bet for you to get your GC. I hope you get it before that.




Dear Friends!

Thank you very much for your efforts to clarify the future of EB immigrants.
I am EB3 ROW with a priority date of January 10 2009.
Based on your figures I don’t have any chances to get my greencard in this fiscal year or next one, but how about 2013 fiscal year? Is that a realistic hope for me?

Thank You Very Much!!!

[isantem]

Isantem

Welcome to the forum. Since the EB3ROW annual demand seems to equal supply (at least for now) .... 4 years from now seems a reasonable bet for you to get your GC. I hope you get it before that.

Thank You for your quick reply. I am a little confused by fiscal year and calendar year, so just to confirm when you say 4 years, you mean fiscal year 2014? Is this a conservatice estimate or optimistic estimate?

Is the 70k backlog includes the application mid 2007 -to end of 2010 also?

Thank You!

[qesehmk]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?


Thank You for your quick reply. I am a little confused by fiscal year and calendar year, so just to confirm when you say 4 years, you mean fiscal year 2014? Is this a conservatice estimate or optimistic estimate?

Is the 70k backlog includes the application mid 2007 -to end of 2010 also?

Thank You!

[isantem]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?

Thank You!

...Romania.

[qesehmk]

Oh ... the land of Nadia.

I would imagine that Romania doesn't have a huge EB or FB demand and so you should get it within 4 years. (Its Philipines that is the worst retrogressed on EB3).

p.s. - One of my friends is from Romania and he got his through lottery (believe it or not). But tehn he had tremendous issues getting his wife (also a romanian) a green card. The wife is a doctor. USCIS apparently kept rejecting until one day when they finally said yes.


Thank You!

...Romania.

[isantem]

Oh ... the land of Nadia. ..and Hagi (soccer player):p


I would imagine that Romania doesn't have a huge EB or FB demand and so you should get it within 4 years. (Its Philipines that is the worst retrogressed on EB3).

p.s. - One of my friends is from Romania and he got his through lottery (believe it or not). But tehn he had tremendous issues getting his wife (also a romanian) a green card. The wife is a doctor. USCIS apparently kept rejecting until one day when they finally said yes.

I also have friend how got they lottery green card when they was waiting for EB green card.
If I would know all this mess when I first got here in USA I would be back in Romania at this time.
And probably I should not say anything when I see friends from India being here for 15 years and NO green card, that is just unbelievable.

Thank You once more and lets hope something will change in D.C. for us to....

[qesehmk]

Yes. A lot of Indians (as well as chinese philipinos and mexicans and others) have been waiting for a loooooooooooooong time. That's why this forum is trying establish clarity so that people can plan their lives better.

Hopefully you will get yours much sooner. Good luck!!


..and Hagi (soccer player):p
I also have friend how got they lottery green card when they was waiting for EB green card.
If I would know all this mess when I first got here in USA I would be back in Romania at this time.
And probably I should not say anything when I see friends from India being here for 15 years and NO green card, that is just unbelievable.

Thank You once more and lets hope something will change in D.C. for us to....

[jlreyp]

Hi there- is it possible for you to predict EB3-ROW with your model once demand data is published by DOS? For example the demand data for February 2011 was posted yesterday. Can you update your model based on that info?

[qesehmk]

jlreyp ...

yes. based on the inventory report published today .... I will update the model / top of the thread later tonight.

Welcome to the forum.


Hi there- is it possible for you to predict EB3-ROW with your model once demand data is published by DOS? For example the demand data for February 2011 was posted yesterday. Can you update your model based on that info?

[jlreyp]

thank you qesehmk. Would it be totally insane to hope that PD Aug16, 2005 EB3-ROW be current on June2011 VB?

[qesehmk]

You should get your GC by Sep 2011. I am 90% confident on that.

The reason I am not saying 100% confident is because in case of EB3 the NVC has almost equivalent or more backlog of cases. So its hard to understand the time horizon of NVC inventory. But since there are only 8-10K people ahead of you in 485 inventory, I would imagine you must receive it this year.


thank you qesehmk. Would it be totally insane to hope that PD Aug16, 2005 EB3-ROW be current on June2011 VB?

[Spectator]

jlreyp,

I am reasonably confident that you should be Current this FY, albeit for slightly different reasons.

The biggest danger I see is that there are substantially more DO cases to add to the Inventory with PDs earlier than your own.

Given that around 4k were added to the Inventory for the period March 2005 to August 2005 last time, I hope that indicates that most of the interviews for these dates have been finished. I believe there is still a reasonable buffer for further additions before your PD would not be Current. It also depends whether the VO used the full allocation available to them in Q1. If not, your chances are even higher.

Hopefully, when the next Inventory is published most additions will be complete and you can have an even higher confidence level.

Good luck.

PS To provide some context to my comments, I think it is unlikely that EB3-ROW will progress into 2006 in FY2011.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. Good observations.

My hesitation with EB3 predictions is more from NVC perspective than from DO perspective. The DO demand will slowly move over into 485 inventory reports. But the NVC demand will never be shown in the 485. Right?




jlreyp,

I am as equally confident as Q that you should be Current this FY, albeit for slightly different reasons.

The biggest danger I see is that there are substantially more DO cases to add to the Inventory with PDs earlier than your own.

Given that around 4k were added to the Inventory in the period March 2005 to August 2005 last time, I hope that indicates that most of the interviews for these dates have been finished. I believe there is still a buffer greater than that number for further additions before your PD would not be Current.

Hopefully, when the next Inventory is published most additions will be complete and you can have an even higher confidence level.

Good luck.

PS To provide some context to my comments, I think it is unlikely that EB3-ROW will progress into 2006 in FY2011.

[Spectator]

Spec

Thanks. Good observations.

My hesitation with EB3 predictions is more from NVC perspective than from DO perspective. The DO demand will slowly move over into 485 inventory reports. But the NVC demand will never be shown in the 485. Right?

Q,

My understanding is that the NVC (or CP) demand will never be shown as part of the USCIS Inventory Report. The DOS demand data only includes that number of NVC cases that are documentarily qualified.

As we have discussed previously, a very large number of the NVC cases probably lie after August 2007 or are PWMB. The majority are only I-140 approvals and do not yet represent applications anywhere close to Consular interview.

The reason I am not too concerned with this fact yet, is that CP processing has consistently represented around 15% of the total for EB3-ROW for several years.

There is going to be a point (if the NVC figures are accurate) when this % must increase, but I don't think it will for 2005 PD.

For instance, outside of ROW, I would speculate that good proportion of the large Philippines number represent nurses and care workers. Since there were large numbers of Schedule A approvals in FY2006 and a few in FY2007, I would speculate further that the bulk of the EB3 Philippines NVC cases are post 2006. Since Philippines already has 30%+ CP, at some point the Cut Off dates for EB3-P look likely to stall, but they haven't yet. In fact they still share the same Cut Off date as ROW at the moment.

I don't know how this would breakdown for ROW though, so your concern about CP cases is certainly justified. I just don't know when we might see that effect. Since it is likely to be several years before later PDs become Current, I imagine the number of cases that do not proceed further will be quite high, either because plans have changed or the lack of a job offer at the appropriate time.

My thoughts anyway.

As a PS There are certain categories of workers who qualify for EB3, but may not qualify for a non immigrant visa such as an H1B. In this case they have no choice but to CP. I have heard that this is a problem for nurses, because unless they have a Bachelors degree and the job requires it, they don't qualify. There used to be the H1-C visa which allowed up to 500 approvals per year for nurses to serve in disadvantaged areas. It sunsetted on December 20, 2009 and has not been extended, as far as I know.

[qesehmk]

As we have discussed previously, a very large number of the NVC cases probably lie after August 2007 or are PWMB. The majority are only I-140 approvals and do not yet represent applications anywhere close to Consular interview.

The reason I am not too concerned with this fact yet, is that CP processing has consistently represented around 15% of the total for EB3-ROW for several years.

There is going to be a point (if the NVC figures are accurate) when this % must increase, but I don't think it will for 2005 PD.



Agree. Thanks. You are right ... for 2005 PD the dates should progress relatively faster. As per CP % changing, I think it will not change. BEcause think this way ... the % in the past .. as much as it has indicated approval per year, it has also indicated ratio of applicants who prefer to file outside. So the % may still remain teh same.

However what's going to change is the rate at which EB3 progresses. In the past the vertical spillovers were beneficial for non-IC countries. Now Entire EB3 will continue to see ever growing backlogs and increasing and very unreasonable wait times. Same is true for FB. On the other hand we are seeing ridiculous movement in FB esp FB2-I. It actually might help if EB2 folks get their own GC and then file spouse under FB2. Or if USCIS automatically start considering spousal application as FB2.

[jlreyp]

thank you both spec & Q. Sorry, I know this sounds like something I should master by now, but I dont. This is all EB3-ROW related. I want to get a better understanding of the source of the numbers that affect GC PDs. Here are my questions:
1. When I look at the USCIS website; there is a link to a pdf doc with the I-485 Employment Based Inventory statistics (jan 5, 2011), what do these numbers represent?
2. When I look at the travel.stage.gov website, there is another pdf doc titled Demand Data Used in the Determination of the February 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates. What do these numbers represent?
3. What is the diference b/w numbers from Q1 and Q2?
4. What makes these numbers change all the time?

[qesehmk]

jlreyp ..

all of these are good questions ... please post them in FAQs and I will answer them there for everybody's benefit.

thanks
Q

thank you both spec & Q. Sorry, I know this sounds like something I should master by now, but I dont. This is all EB3-ROW related. I want to get a better understanding of the source of the numbers that affect GC PDs. Here are my questions:
1. When I look at the USCIS website; there is a link to a pdf doc with the I-485 Employment Based Inventory statistics (jan 5, 2011), what do these numbers represent?
2. When I look at the travel.stage.gov website, there is another pdf doc titled Demand Data Used in the Determination of the February 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates. What do these numbers represent?
3. What is the diference b/w numbers from Q1 and Q2?
4. What makes these numbers change all the time?

[gcseek]

Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

Siva

[qesehmk]

Siva, its tough to go through what you have gone through. The travesty is that you just missed the 2004 clearance sale since probably you hadn't filed 485 by then. But hopefully you will get it before your kids age out.

I am yet to update the EB3. But since there doesn't seem a lot of interest in EB3, I am being lazy in updating it. But will do within a week I promise with your suggestions.

Regarding your question EB4 will first do a FA and then a FD to EB1. EB4 in theory shouldn't give visas to FB4 or FB in general. When EB or FB give visas to each other, they do it at the end of the year. However within year 7% rule is applied by utilizing existing visas within a category. That's what allows S Korea to utilize more EB2 than their quota when significant EB2IC backlog is present.

Your Q. no 2/3 are not quite clear. Please feel free to put them in FAQs section. But in general FA or FD are always allocated to whoever has olded PD where FA or FD is received.


Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

Siva

[gcseek]

Q, Thanks for your reply. I appreciate that.

I missed out the clearance sale, because the Labor officer in my state took short of 4 years to clear labor, after my company took 13 months to file (I gave them in May 2001). I think that I might get it at the end of this year.

1. My request for more information in the tables is for EB2 also. I am sure, a lot of you, have all the figures in your head already. But, it will be clearer with more details. Thanks for considering.
2. You answered the point 2, ie. it goes to the visas with earliest PD irrespective of country. Thanks.
3. I will try to be more clear on point 3. I will put it in FAQ?

Thanks to you all for being there for us.

[Spectator]

Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

SivaSiva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be +3,000 and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China.
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India.
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M.
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P.
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW.

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW.
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2.
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5.
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas.

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly.


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. Now I understand that Siva's Question was about how to interpret the spreadsheet image. I will improve it in next round. Got it thanks.

p.s. - -ve numbers below indicate unsatisfied demand. They don't necessarily say that the country will consumer those many visas. You 've got that absolutely right.


Siva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be zero and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.

[gcseek]

Spec, Q,

Thanks. My doubts in this are cleared. Just one thing about your example. I think FA for Phillipines will be 3000 in the example not 0. Since, the doubts are cleared it does not matter.

So, since SPILLOVER goes to the most retrogressed country, I assume that SOFAD will be applied to India's porting cases prior to May 2006. Also, since India's cut off date is earlier than China's, most of the remaining spill over will go to India. Right?

If so, is it OK to show SOFAD for China and India separately? This question is a candidate for both EB3 and EB2, I think.

Thanks.



Siva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be zero and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China.
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India.
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M.
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P.
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW.

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW.
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2.
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5.
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas.

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly.


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.

[qesehmk]

Yes. Theoretically one can calculate SOFAD separately for I and C. It just makes it more complicated to compute and even to understand.

Spec, Q,

Thanks. My doubts in this are cleared. Just one thing about your example. I think FA for Phillipines will be 3000 in the example not 0. Since, the doubts are cleared it does not matter.

So, since SPILLOVER goes to the most retrogressed country, I assume that SOFAD will be applied to India's porting cases prior to May 2006. Also, since India's cut off date is earlier than China's, most of the remaining spill over will go to India. Right?

If so, is it OK to show SOFAD for China and India separately? This question is a candidate for both EB3 and EB2, I think.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Spec, Q,

Thanks. My doubts in this are cleared. Just one thing about your example. I think FA for Phillipines will be 3000 in the example not 0. Since, the doubts are cleared it does not matter.

So, since SPILLOVER goes to the most retrogressed country, I assume that SOFAD will be applied to India's porting cases prior to May 2006. Also, since India's cut off date is earlier than China's, most of the remaining spill over will go to India. Right?

If so, is it OK to show SOFAD for China and India separately? This question is a candidate for both EB3 and EB2, I think.

Thanks.

GCseek
When spillover is applied both I&C PD will be same date. This will be calculated based on the Expected SOFAD and the # of pending cases.Yes, if china got less cases before that PD they get lesser allocation than India.

[Spectator]

Spec, Q,

Thanks. My doubts in this are cleared. Just one thing about your example. I think FA for Phillipines will be 3000 in the example not 0. Since, the doubts are cleared it does not matter.gcseek,

Thanks. You are absolutely correct.

I have edited my original reply so that the figures are correct for other people who might read it.

Spec

[gcseek]

Thanks, Q, Veni and Spec.

[gcseek]

As per I-4885 Pending report, the following cases are pending:
Prior to 2002 - 342
Upto Apr 7, 2002 - 1182 (April's 704 is divided by 4 to get approximate upto April 7th)
After April 7th - 6519 (bringing the total to 7701 for year 2002).

As per Demand Data as of March , 2011, prior to 2003 there are 7500 cases.

Demand data says that Prior to 2003 (upto 2002 end) it is 7500. My question is, 7500 is after considering April 2011 Bulletin (ie. upto April 17th) or Mar 2011 (upto 14th Mar 2002)?. If it is upto April 7th, then can I assume that CP pending cases after April 7th to be 981 (7500 - 6519)? If not, it might be more from upto Mar 2002 (approx 1403). Also, can anybody tell us how many would have been cleared upto April Bulletin (of course, it will be an educated guess). My reason is that my PD being April 15, 2002, it will be cleared if the cut off date reaches April 22, 2002. I want to know how fast, I can get. Every month's bulletin is important since my daughter is going to college this fall (expensive college. I want to do this for her) and I do not have money, but I want to take a loan. The FAFSA has already rejected her application saying that she is not eligible.

Q, T(Teddy), S(Spec), V (Ven) and others (please forgive me for not mentioning your names individually). You do not know how much your calculations can change people's decision making in their lives. If you have come into my immigration life (pun very much intended) much earlier than May 2010 (when I started looking into these forums), I would have saved atleast $60,000). So, your calculations are very important to people. So, having spicy conversations are good and yet, please keep up the good work. It keeps the hopes alive.

[gcseek]

Also, I could have posted this in EB2 thread with the corresponding numbers, but I am trying to have a near suicidal attempt to keep this thread going now and then. I know that atleast 500 people would have viewed this in the next hour.

[qesehmk]

gcseek you are just a week away. That date should definitely reach by Sep 11. Or even earlier e.g. July 2011.

It looks like EB3I is moving at the speed of quota utilization + EB3->2 porting. The pace looks good enough that you will become current hopefully by Jul 2011 and certainly by Sep 2011.

In either case you are going to get greened before end of this year for sure. Stay relaxed. Good luck with the loan. Your worst case situation is you have to pay out of pocket for first semester. Keep your fingers crossed.

p.s. - Thanks for sharing your story. This is what keeps me motivated to keep doing what we are doing here.




As per I-4885 Pending report, the following cases are pending:
Prior to 2002 - 342
Upto Apr 7, 2002 - 1182 (April's 704 is divided by 4 to get approximate upto April 7th)
After April 7th - 6519 (bringing the total to 7701 for year 2002).

As per Demand Data as of March , 2011, prior to 2003 there are 7500 cases.

Demand data says that Prior to 2003 (upto 2002 end) it is 7500. My question is, 7500 is after considering April 2011 Bulletin (ie. upto April 17th) or Mar 2011 (upto 14th Mar 2002)?. If it is upto April 7th, then can I assume that CP pending cases after April 7th to be 981 (7500 - 6519)? If not, it might be more from upto Mar 2002 (approx 1403). Also, can anybody tell us how many would have been cleared upto April Bulletin (of course, it will be an educated guess). My reason is that my PD being April 15, 2002, it will be cleared if the cut off date reaches April 22, 2002. I want to know how fast, I can get. Every month's bulletin is important since my daughter is going to college this fall (expensive college. I want to do this for her) and I do not have money, but I want to take a loan. The FAFSA has already rejected her application saying that she is not eligible.

Q, T(Teddy), S(Spec), V (Ven) and others (please forgive me for not mentioning your names individually). You do not know how much your calculations can change people's decision making in their lives. If you have come into my immigration life (pun very much intended) much earlier than May 2010 (when I started looking into these forums), I would have saved atleast $60,000). So, your calculations are very important to people. So, having spicy conversations are good and yet, please keep up the good work. It keeps the hopes alive.

[cowboys]

My priority date is Sept 2007(EB3) ROW. Can anyone please predict when I'll get my green card? Thanks.

[isantem]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

How is possible that Mexico EB3 gets more than 2800 visas (5983 see page 11) in 2010 fiscal year?

[qesehmk]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

How is possible that Mexico EB3 gets more than 2800 visas (5983 see page 11) in 2010 fiscal year?

Thats a valid question and traditional explanation (that I dont' buy into) is that because Mexico underutilizes EB2 and so they are still well under their overall EB cap. An even more pervert case that is similar to this is S Korea getting a lot more in EB2 because they don't utilize as much in FB.

In both cases what is alarming is the clear violation of 7% limit at category and subcategory level and the freewheeling interpretation that USCIS applies. Unless somebody help us understand better - only spillovers (i.e. FB to EB or vice versa) & FA & FD can violate 7% limit.

USCIS does state that 7% is an overall limit across FB and EB .... but on what basis? Its not clear to me.

[veni001]

Thats a valid question and traditional explanation (that I dont' buy into) is that because Mexico underutilizes EB2 and so they are still well under their overall EB cap. An even more pervert case that is similar to this is S Korea getting a lot more in EB2 because they don't utilize as much in FB.

In both cases what is alarming is the clear violation of 7% limit at category and subcategory level and the freewheeling interpretation that USCIS applies. Unless somebody help us understand better - only spillovers (i.e. FB to EB or vice versa) & FA & FD can violate 7% limit.

USCIS does state that 7% is an overall limit across FB and EB .... but on what basis? Its not clear to me.

Q,
I am using the following two scenarios to explain EB2-South Korea and EB3-Mexico numbers
1. Non retrogresses country & Non retrogressed category (EB2-South Korea)
As long as South Korea stays as non retrogresses, as well as EB2ROW, they can get approved as many application as they can with-in the category using all Fall across numbers ( similar to EB1 usage by any country).
2. Retrogressed country & Retrogressed category (EB3-Mexico)
In this case when ever fall across numbers are available will go to the oldest PD with in the category, traditionally EB3 Mexico is retrogressed compared to EB3 ROW, and is the reason for higher usage numbers.

In both cases USCIS is assigning FA numbers as per AC21, it's not violation of 7% limit rule!(only applies for non FA or non SOFAD numbers). Hope this provided the clarification.

[Spectator]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

How is possible that Mexico EB3 gets more than 2800 visas (5983 see page 11) in 2010 fiscal year?


Thats a valid question and traditional explanation (that I dont' buy into) is that because Mexico underutilizes EB2 and so they are still well under their overall EB cap. An even more pervert case that is similar to this is S Korea getting a lot more in EB2 because they don't utilize as much in FB.

In both cases what is alarming is the clear violation of 7% limit at category and subcategory level and the freewheeling interpretation that USCIS applies. Unless somebody help us understand better - only spillovers (i.e. FB to EB or vice versa) & FA & FD can violate 7% limit.

USCIS does state that 7% is an overall limit across FB and EB .... but on what basis? Its not clear to me.
isantem,

For a fuller explanation, refer to FAQs post #8.

Q,

The basis is from INA 202(a)(2) which says:


(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

203(a) is FB and 203(b) is EB.

The meaning has been debated endlessly in forums, but the VO has consistently interpreted it to mean 7% of the combined total of FB & EB allocations.

[kiko21]

Hi everybody!
My PD in EB3 "Other workers" ROW is 01/06/2006. I am currently in H4 status while my wife is holding a teaching job in H1B. Her employer is considering to proceed with her PERM application in EB3 ROW category. Do you think there is a sens to do it. I have just a guess that my PD will be current around March 2012. Can you give me your intput on our case. Thank you, Kris.

[veni001]

Hi everybody!
My PD in EB3 "Other workers" ROW is 01/06/2006. I am currently in H4 status while my wife is holding a teaching job in H1B. Her employer is considering to proceed with her PERM application in EB3 ROW category. Do you think there is a sens to do it. I have just a guess that my PD will be current around March 2012. Can you give me your intput on our case. Thank you, Kris.

You may or may not get a chance this year, but if you don't get a chance your spouse need to have an approved/pending PERM/i140 to get H1 extended beyond 6th year!

[kiko21]

With PD in EB3 ROW 2011, she may not be able to file I-485 before her H1B gets to the end in 2016? We are hoping she could file under EB2 ROW, she has MED and 2 years of expierience and then this is different story. Thank you for your response and advice, Kris.

[veni001]

With PD in EB3 ROW 2011, she may not be able to file I-485 before her H1B gets to the end in 2016? We are hoping she could file under EB2 ROW, she has MED and 2 years of expierience and then this is different story. Thank you for your response and advice, Kris.

Kilko21,
If your spouse can get H1 extended until 2016, she can definitely bet on your PD unless she is eligible for EB2, can find a qualifying job and willing employer.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. Yes I agree that VO has interpreted it that way. I am not sure whether consistently. Conveniently? May be yes.

A case in point is vertical vs horizontal spillover. Until 3 years back USCIS had (consistently?) misintepreted spillovers as vertical until a judge ruled in favor of horizontal spillover. So I think the same is true with EB vs FB. Many people don't realize this ... but overallocating mexico or S korea EB2 visas because they are underutilizing EB or FB visas is a perverse way of visa allocation and travesty of justice. So somebody needs to challenge this in court.

In fact the whole country quota itself is inhuman and unjust for the people from China and India. But I am digressing now .. :-)


isantem,

For a fuller explanation, refer to FAQs post #8.

Q,

The basis is from INA 202(a)(2) which says:



203(a) is FB and 203(b) is EB.

The meaning has been debated endlessly in forums, but the VO has consistently interpreted it to mean 7% of the combined total of FB & EB allocations.

[kiko21]

Veni001,
My wife H1B contract started in 2010 and she loves her job. Our lawyer is saying that the PERM can be filed under EB3 ROW and it will be stronger case than my PD 01/06/2006 EB3 "other workers" ROW. I hope that my PD will be current around March 2012 and then we both are all set, but this is my uneducated guess. Should We have another lawyer have a look into her case to determinate EB2 or EB3 category?

[gcq]

Spec

Thanks. Yes I agree that VO has interpreted it that way. I am not sure whether consistently. Conveniently? May be yes.

A case in point is vertical vs horizontal spillover. Until 3 years back USCIS had (consistently?) misintepreted spillovers as vertical until a judge ruled in favor of horizontal spillover. So I think the same is true with EB vs FB. Many people don't realize this ... but overallocating mexico or S korea EB2 visas because they are underutilizing EB or FB visas is a perverse way of visa allocation and travesty of justice. So somebody needs to challenge this in court.

In fact the whole country quota itself is inhuman and unjust for the people from China and India. But I am digressing now .. :-)

Q,

Could you point me to the court case where the spillover was changed by court ?
As far as I know, this was changed by lobbying/meeting with visa office by a bunch of EB2 guys backed by IV.

[qesehmk]

gcq ... you got me there :-) I meant to say lobbying lawsuits etc ... I do not know if there was or was not a particular case tied to it or whether IV's efforts made it happen.

The point is that USCIS was misinterpreting the laws or rules or guidance related to spillover. And I am afraid that they do it even today as it relates to 7% limit.

Thanks for pointing out. I would be curious if you know more why and how the spillover rules changed.


Q,

Could you point me to the court case where the spillover was changed by court ?
As far as I know, this was changed by lobbying/meeting with visa office by a bunch of EB2 guys backed by IV.

[veni001]

gcq ... you got me there :-) I meant to say lobbying lawsuits etc ... I do not know if there was or was not a particular case tied to it or whether IV's efforts made it happen.

The point is that USCIS was misinterpreting the laws or rules or guidance related to spillover. And I am afraid that they do it even today as it relates to 7% limit.

Thanks for pointing out. I would be curious if you know more why and how the spillover rules changed.

With the reduced demand there are lot of attorneys out there looking for work! If they believe USCIS interpretation is not correct, i don't think they will wait on any one!

[qesehmk]

veni ... that's fine. I am not a lawyer for sure. I am only quoting from actually what happened in the past.
With the reduced demand there are lot of attorneys out there looking for work! If they believe USCIS interpretation is not correct, i don't think they will wait on any one!

[veni001]

veni ... that's fine. I am not a lawyer for sure. I am only quoting from actually what happened in the past.

Q,
I don't mean you are wrong, i am just generalizing on interpretation(whether 7% or SOFAD).

[qesehmk]

Not sure I understand. But going back to lawyers or any other influential pro-immigration groups - the EB pool is so small that it is not financially or otherwise rewarding to help this group. Besides the fixed visas per year ensure that any rule change is a zero sum game. So in effect one category / country may gain but only at the expense of others. e.g. the vertical to horizontal spillover interpretation helped EB2 at the expense of EB3.

All these reasons make it non-attractive to pick it up as a cause.

Our objective on this website is only to bring clarity to GC processing. So only trying to share what I understand. Not trying to argue or anything. Apologize if comes across that way.


Q,
I don't mean you are wrong, i am just generalizing on interpretation(whether 7% or SOFAD).

[gcq]

gcq ... you got me there :-) I meant to say lobbying lawsuits etc ... I do not know if there was or was not a particular case tied to it or whether IV's efforts made it happen.

The point is that USCIS was misinterpreting the laws or rules or guidance related to spillover. And I am afraid that they do it even today as it relates to 7% limit.

Thanks for pointing out. I would be curious if you know more why and how the spillover rules changed.

It was the AC21 law (passed by Pres: Bill Clinton) that caused a change in spillover rules. This legislation was passed in 2000.
However visa office still continued to follow the spillover rules set before AC21 law. This interpretation was incorrect as AC21 had already changed the spillover rules.
Some EB2 folks sensed this, they formed a group under IV's umbrella, approached visa office with backing from lawyers and forced visa office to interpret the spillover rules correctly as per AC21 law.

On a side note, EB3-I doesn't lose much with this change as the spillover would have come to them only once EB2 and EB3 ROW are current. With the spillover rule change, EB3-I guys can port to EB2 and take advantage of the spillover change.

[veni001]

It was the AC21 law (passed by Pres: Bill Clinton) that caused a change in spillover rules. This legislation was passed in 2000.
However visa office still continued to follow the spillover rules set before AC21 law. This interpretation was incorrect as AC21 had already changed the spillover rules.
Some EB2 folks sensed this, they formed a group under IV's umbrella, approached visa office with backing from lawyers and forced visa office to interpret the spillover rules correctly as per AC21 law.

On a side note, EB3-I doesn't lose much with this change as the spillover would have come to them only once EB2 and EB3 ROW are current. With the spillover rule change, EB3-I guys can port to EB2 and take advantage of the spillover change.

gcq,
I agree.

[smooth]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?

[veni001]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?

smooth,
We have seen about 8 month movement for EB3 ROW in the first 7 months of FY 2011, since all spillover numbers with in EB3 ROW will be applied in the last quarter, can expect significant movement.

[gcseek]

How much spill over within EB3 ROW expected?
How are they applied (equally to all countries within ROW?, equally to all countries including Ind, Chn, Mex, Phi? or to most retrogressed countries?) thanks for your reply.

[smooth]

I am EB3 Row PD Feb 15, 2006, when can I expect to be current? Thanks in advance

[Spectator]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?
Movement to date in EB3-ROW seems to have implied quite a large amount of hidden demand. Without that, I agree it could have moved to May 2006.

Per the last VB, movement of 3-6 weeks per month can be expected for the rest of the year.

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.

Spillover is not applicable to EB3-ROW, unless spare visas are available from EB2. That is extremely unlikely, unless DOS get their EB2 calculation very, very wrong.

[Spectator]

How much spill over within EB3 ROW expected?
How are they applied (equally to all countries within ROW?, equally to all countries including Ind, Chn, Mex, Phi? or to most retrogressed countries?) thanks for your reply.
No spillover to EB3 is expected this year, or for many to come.

If spillover were to be received, it would be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis within those Countries eligible to receive it.

By law, spillover from EB2 first goes to EB3-ROW, since Countries within it have not reached the 7% limit.

Only when that demand is satisfied, can the spillover be made available to Countries who have reached the 7% limit. Generally, in EB3 this means China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Because of the overall 7% concept, it is possible that Mexico and Philippines could receive some spillover visas initially with ROW, but only until they themselves reach the 9,800 7% limit within all EB preference categories. Normally, Mexico and Philippines reach this by "stealing" visas from ROW within EB3. That is why ROW only received 24k visas last year, when the initial allocation was 31k.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I am not sure what you mean by spillover. Technically USCIS uses that term for FB to EB and vice versa. We here use it for any excess visas coming from outside the category.

My understanding is that theoretically if EB2 were to give any visas to EB3 (which aint going to happen) they would be distributed strictly in PD order regardless whether individual ROW coutnries have or haven't reached their 7% limit.


No spillover to EB3 is expected this year, or for many to come.

If spillover were to be received, it would be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis within those Countries eligible to receive it.

By law, spillover from EB2 first goes to EB3-ROW, since Countries within it have not reached the 7% limit.

Only when that demand is satisfied, can the spillover be made available to Countries who have reached the 7% limit. Generally, in EB3 this means China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Because of the overall 7% concept, it is possible that Mexico and Philippines could receive some spillover visas initially with ROW, but only until they themselves reach the 9,800 7% limit within all EB preference categories. Normally, Mexico and Philippines reach this by "stealing" visas from ROW within EB3. That is why ROW only received 24k visas last year, when the initial allocation was 31k.

[Spectator]

Spec

I am not sure what you mean by spillover. Technically USCIS uses that term for FB to EB and vice versa. We here use it for any excess visas coming from outside the category.

My understanding is that theoretically if EB2 were to give any visas to EB3 (which aint going to happen) they would be distributed strictly in PD order regardless whether individual ROW coutnries have or haven't reached their 7% limit.
Q,

I am not sure DOS use the term spillover to mean anything, even if they use it at all!

The spillover rules are controlled by the interpretation of INA 202 (a)(5)(A):


(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PERCOUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE-

If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) (http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083.html#0-0-0-1345)for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

When the spare visas fall to EB3, they must still follow this law.

Unlike EB2, all of EB3, including ROW, is retrogressed.

EB3-ROW represent qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, since they have demand and have not reached the 7% limitation.

Visas cannot be issued without regard to the numerical limitation until there are no other qualified immigrants to whom the visas can be issued.

EB3-India may not receive spare visas until all demand from otherwise qualified immigrants has been satisfied.

Thus, EB3-I requires both EB2 and EB3-ROW to have no satisfiable demand before they can receive spare visas.

Often, people describe this as both EB2 and EB3-ROW being Current, but nowhere in the law is the word "Current" used, so it is not an absolute condition.

Similarly, if EB2-ROW were ever to become retrogressed, then any EB1 FD would first be used by EB2-ROW until that demand was satisfied. Only then would it be made available to EB2-C and EB2-I.

[isantem]

Movement to date in EB3-ROW seems to have implied quite a large amount of hidden demand. Without that, I agree it could have moved to May 2006.

Per the last VB, movement of 3-6 weeks per month can be expected for the rest of the year.

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.

Per the USCIS I-485 inventory data and based on visa bulletin movement they used half of 25,000 visas for this year. I know that is lot of hidden demand, but I think is a good chance to get us to at least January-March 2006.


I am EB3 Row PD Feb 15, 2006, when can I expect to be current? Thanks in advance

You will get your greencard this year but I am not 100% sure if you get it before or after September. Good Luck!

[qesehmk]

Spec

The following applies to the category from where teh visas come from. Not where the visas go.

So if within ROW there are excess visas overall then they will go to a particular ROW country as long as 7% for that country is not reached.

However if its an FD then IMHO they are available for everybody to use strictly in PD order.



Q,
Visas cannot be issued without regard to the numerical limitation until there are no other qualified immigrants to whom the visas can be issued.

[isantem]

Friends.... I am looking on the charts that you guys put togheter......great work. THANK YOU.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ------------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ------------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 ------------ 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 --------- 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 ----------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 --------- 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 -------- 12,643 --- 122,183

I am trying to estimate how many applicants are in front of me (PD Jan 2009 - EB-3)

I know this numbers are for EB 2 and EB 3, can you please direct me where can I find how many EB-2 ROW was approved in this year's so I can deduct and find out an approximate EB-3 count?

You know what is a bulk percent number for 140 denials that is safe to take in my calculations?

This are the primary applicants correct? If yes, is 2.5 multiplier a good number?

Thank You

P.S. I am on the right track with my calculations or not?

[veni001]

Friends.... I am looking on the charts that you guys put togheter......great work. THANK YOU.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ------------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ------------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 ------------ 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 --------- 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 ----------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 --------- 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 -------- 12,643 --- 122,183

I am trying to estimate how many applicants are in front of me (PD Jan 2009 - EB-3)

I know this numbers are for EB 2 and EB 3, can you please direct me where can I find how many EB-2 ROW was approved in this year's so I can deduct and find out an approximate EB-3 count?

You know what is a bulk percent number for 140 denials that is safe to take in my calculations?

This are the primary applicants correct? If yes, is 2.5 multiplier a good number?

Thank You

P.S. I am on the right track with my calculations or not?

isantem,
I believe until 2008 the breakdown between EB2&EB3 for ROW PERM is 50%-50%. Look at the PERM data posted at the following link http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

Assuming above split + hidden demand( I think this is high for EB3 ROW), it will take good few years to move dates into 2009!

[gcseek]

Hiya,

My number is current now after 13 years into the country, 10 years of applying by me and 9 years of applying by the company. One more year, I would have asked my wife to do 'Agnipravesh' just to keep pace with Ram and Sita. Haha!

Thanks, guys, for help me keep up the spirit. Now, I have to plan for my career at age 51.

I would like to know, what happens next. I think that I am pre-adjudicated, not sure. Since it is for June Bulletin, I think that it will start only on June 1st. June 1st is the last date for my kid's college scholarship. What should I do? How long should it take to receive GC? What are all involved? Can anybody enlighten me?

Siva

[qesehmk]

gcseek,

I think you should have it in your hand within a month max since preadjed.

So why don't you talk to the concerned authorities and file for a scholarship now and then ask them a grace period for providing proof of GC.

Hiya,

My number is current now after 13 years into the country, 10 years of applying by me and 9 years of applying by the company. One more year, I would have asked my wife to do 'Agnipravesh' just to keep pace with Ram and Sita. Haha!

Thanks, guys, for help me keep up the spirit. Now, I have to plan for my career at age 51.

I would like to know, what happens next. I think that I am pre-adjudicated, not sure. Since it is for June Bulletin, I think that it will start only on June 1st. June 1st is the last date for my kid's college scholarship. What should I do? How long should it take to receive GC? What are all involved? Can anybody enlighten me?

Siva

[isantem]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You

[veni001]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You

isantem,
I can think of two reasons for last year EB3ROW movement in the final quarter
1. DOS applying all unused VISAs from the consular posts abroad in Q4
2. The number of pending cases together from 2001 to 2004 are less than the total for FY 2005.

[Spectator]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You
isantem,

DOS seem to use different approval profiles (how many visas are allocated in each quarter) in different years (especially for EB3) and there is evidence to back that up.

I have charted both last year and this year to date against Trackitt approvals.

Last year, 61% of all EB3-ROW approvals were made in Q4, so it is not surprising that there was a large movement.

Also, because EB3-ROW had previously reached these Cut Off Dates, there were less remaining applicant left to approve.

The trend in FY2011 is much more linear and even, so we should not expect the same, unless EB3-ROW is going to get considerably more visas than last year.

I will try to add the figures for EB3 to the post in the FACTS & Data section http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections by the end of the day, so that you can judge for yourself.

EDIT: The tables can now be found at the above link.

[isantem]

isantem,
I can think of two reasons for last year EB3ROW movement in the final quarter
1. DOS applying all unused VISAs from the consular posts abroad in Q4
2. The number of pending cases together from 2001 to 2004 are less than the total for FY 2005.

Thank You!


The trend in FY2011 is much more linear and even, so we should not expect the same, unless EB3-ROW is going to get considerably more visas than last year.

I will try to add the figures for EB3 to the post in the FACTS & Data section http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections by the end of the day, so that you can judge for yourself.


Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

[Spectator]

Thank You!



Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

Isantem,

You can find them here http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html (Table V, Part 2).

I happen to have them to hand anyway.

EB2-ROW
2006 14,420
2007 28,892
2008 44,934

EB3-ROW
2006 44,985
2007 37,117
2008 29,884

There are also some figures in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?48-485-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI

[veni001]

Thank You!



Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

isantem,
See the table below for EB3 approvals 2005 to 2010

-FY- --EB3ROW -----EB3M -------EB3P ------EB3I -----EB3C ----- Total
2005 --69,972 ----12,632 ----11,129 ----23,399 ----4,998 ----122,130
2006 --44,985 ----7,735 ------4,709 -----3,177 ----2,739 -----63,345
2007 --37,115 ----10,174 -----8,710 -----17,985 ---3,681 -----77,665
2008 --29,884 ---- 5,325 -----6,154 ------3,745 ---2,057 -----47,165
2009 --26,309 -----4,566 -----5,540 ------2,306 ---1,077 -----39,798
2010 --24,328 -----7,740 -----3,651 ------3,036 ---3,676 -----42,431
Total-232,593 ----48,172 ----39,893 -----53,648 --18,228 ----392,534

[isantem]

Spectator, veni001

Thank you!

[srinu_chirala]

isantem,
See the table below for EB3 approvals 2005 to 2010

-FY- --EB3ROW -----EB3M -------EB3P ------EB3I -----EB3C ----- Total
2005 --69,972 ----12,632 ----11,129 ----23,399 ----4,998 ----122,130
2006 --44,985 ----7,735 ------4,709 -----3,177 ----2,739 -----63,345
2007 --37,115 ----10,174 -----8,710 -----17,985 ---3,681 -----77,665
2008 --29,884 ---- 5,325 -----6,154 ------3,745 ---2,057 -----47,165
2009 --26,309 -----4,566 -----5,540 ------2,306 ---1,077 -----39,798
2010 --24,328 -----7,740 -----3,651 ------3,036 ---3,676 -----42,431
Total-232,593 ----48,172 ----39,893 -----53,648 --18,228 ----392,534

Do you think this table is accurate?

[srinu_chirala]

Employment-Based I-485 Inventory for Individuals Born in India as of January 05, 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf

Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD


EB3rd Preference
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
January 7 194 872 1,000 815 713 693 4,294
February 8 317 826 928 813 725 650 4,267
March 18 495 951 1,301 3,424 931 651 7,771
April 229 704 1,068 1,282 31 754 590 4,658
May 4 658 1,023 1,212 77 867 567 4,408
June 5 5 588 982 1,211 147 834 486 4,258
July 1 1 3 675 940 1,164 249 911 811 4,755
August 1 2 8 743 934 1,155 456 875 158 4,332
September 1 3 4 750 958 1,060 505 847 4,128
October 1 1 14 808 1,210 1,246 553 1,043 4,876
November 1 11 836 1,161 1,303 667 1,181 5,160
December 14 933 1,185 1,564 792 1,045 5,533
Total 3 1 1 12 325 7,701 12,110 14,426 8,529 10,726 4,606 0 0 0 58,440

[Spectator]

Do you think this table is accurate?
srinu_chirala,

Yes, it agrees to my figures + or - a very few.

They are DOS figures for Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations

You can check the numbers yourself here http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html (use Table V)

[kabhishek]

I request all immigrant community to sign this petition and ask all your friends and family members
to sign and send emails to congress and President.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-immigrants-in-usa/

Thanks

[isantem]

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.


No comment!

Thank you Spectator, Venni, Teddy and all!
Thanks for the conservative predictions that are amazingly accurate!
Special thanks to qesehmk, because of his effort we have this discussion platform!

Thank You!

[immitime]

This is my first post here, EB-3 India and China will ever get the spillover??? I think this category will be always retrogressed.

Even EB-2 India and China are current, then the spillover will go to EB-3ROW is it not?

The spillover should be kept as pre 2008, like The present spill over to EB-2 should be equally divided into EB2 & EB-3 Iand C

Otherwise lot of families who cannot port will never get their GC.

Any Thoughts?

And any hope for HR 2161 (Rep Zen Lofgren's bill to pass this Year?

[qesehmk]

The brutal truth is if things keep going as they are ... even EB2IC is doomed. EB3IC will NEVER see any spillover.
The only hope for EB3IC is immigration reform.
Sorry but - the situation is so hopeless - we would be illserving EB3IC if we gave you even 1% hope.

p.s. - The only people in EB3IC who shouldn't lose hope are the ones who are within 6-9 months of the current date because they will get GC within realistic time horizon i.e 1-4 years. Everybody else is at the mercy of denials, portings, people returning back to their home countries, duplicate EB3 applications etc to reduce the backlog more than quota. And we did see that kind of movement by a couple of thousand cases. Beyond that .... situation is utterly hopeless.


This is my first post here, EB-3 India and China will ever get the spillover??? I think this category will be always retrogressed.

Even EB-2 India and China are current, then the spillover will go to EB-3ROW is it not?

The spillover should be kept as pre 2008, like The present spill over to EB-2 should be equally divided into EB2 & EB-3 Iand C

Otherwise lot of families who cannot port will never get their GC.

Any Thoughts?

And any hope for HR 2161 (Rep Zen Lofgren's bill to pass this Year?

[immitime]

Q Thanks for the clarification,

But is it not spillover shoud be like pre 2008? Otherwise the spillover will only go to one cateogry. I think with the current spillover USCIS no longer uses the 7% country cap? correct me if my understanding is wrong.

BEFORE:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any.

AFTER:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB1 quotas dry out or EB2 is current => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been, again, DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB2 quotas dry out or EB2 is current.

The key, if my understanding is correct, is that USCIS no longer enforce the 7% per-country cap. These additional visas, which would have flown down to EB3 according to the existing rule*, are being re-directed to EB2, and essentially, EB2I in particular.

[qesehmk]

immitime - sorry i missed your question for quite some time it seems.

i think what changed was the interpretation of spillover.

Any spillover (vertical or horizontal) always disregarded country cap. But vertical spillover meant EB3 ROW gained all the unused EB2ROW and EB2ROW gained all EB1ROW unused.

USCIS was wrongly interpreting spillovers as vertical. That was chanllenged in court and USCIS was directed to change to horizontal spillover. That would meant spillover will first be utilized within category before it would spillover to other category.
Q Thanks for the clarification,

But is it not spillover shoud be like pre 2008? Otherwise the spillover will only go to one cateogry. I think with the current spillover USCIS no longer uses the 7% country cap? correct me if my understanding is wrong.

BEFORE:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any.

AFTER:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB1 quotas dry out or EB2 is current => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been, again, DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB2 quotas dry out or EB2 is current.

The key, if my understanding is correct, is that USCIS no longer enforce the 7% per-country cap. These additional visas, which would have flown down to EB3 according to the existing rule*, are being re-directed to EB2, and essentially, EB2I in particular.

[amichael]

EB3 ROW priority date of 8/3/06. How much longer is my wait? :confused:
MANY THANKS!! :D

[kiran_july_2004]

Hello,

First of all, I would like to appreciate the Guru, Qesehmk - Q and all others who have spent lot of time analyzing information and providing most reasonable expectations/predictions.

My priority date is 07/09/2004 in EB3 category and am a hopeful candidate in this category looking for some ray of light...

The question I have here for you all is, with the HR.3012 making through it's way to senate, can some body share their thoughts regarding when it will get to the house and then to senate and get passed. Based on that, how much time would it still require to get my 485 start processing. I am not so (extremely) desperate but would allow me to setup some intermediate expectations and start looking forward for it.

Thanks in advance... Kiran.

[qesehmk]

If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

EB3 ROW priority date of 8/3/06. How much longer is my wait? :confused:
MANY THANKS!! :D

Kiran there is a separate thread under advocacy. Pedro and other people can help answer this better there.


Hello,

First of all, I would like to appreciate the Guru, Qesehmk - Q and all others who have spent lot of time analyzing information and providing most reasonable expectations/predictions.

My priority date is 07/09/2004 in EB3 category and am a hopeful candidate in this category looking for some ray of light...

The question I have here for you all is, with the HR.3012 making through it's way to senate, can some body share their thoughts regarding when it will get to the house and then to senate and get passed. Based on that, how much time would it still require to get my 485 start processing. I am not so (extremely) desperate but would allow me to setup some intermediate expectations and start looking forward for it.

Thanks in advance... Kiran.

[IS81IS81]

Does anybody know whether all 2800 visas are consumed for EB3? If not, why EB3 dates are moving one week every month?

[self.coach]

Why do you say EB2IC is doomed?


The brutal truth is if things keep going as they are ... even EB2IC is doomed. EB3IC will NEVER see any spillover.
The only hope for EB3IC is immigration reform.
Sorry but - the situation is so hopeless - we would be illserving EB3IC if we gave you even 1% hope.

p.s. - The only people in EB3IC who shouldn't lose hope are the ones who are within 6-9 months of the current date because they will get GC within realistic time horizon i.e 1-4 years. Everybody else is at the mercy of denials, portings, people returning back to their home countries, duplicate EB3 applications etc to reduce the backlog more than quota. And we did see that kind of movement by a couple of thousand cases. Beyond that .... situation is utterly hopeless.

[qesehmk]

coach, I was talking about long term secular trend. The long term secular trend for EB2 category (if nothing changes other than economy) is that the demand is growing bigger and bigger.

EB1 is nearly utilizing its full capacity and those people will start applying in EB2 who can't nearly qualify. Then EB3 people will hardly have choice than apply in EB2. This is true for ROW as well. We are already seeing - people do not file in EB3 a smuch as they used to.

So what/s going on is a reflection of the fact that the overall supply is less than demand. And this mismatch is fundamental in nature i.e. not a one time thing. So as long as there is fundamental mismatch - EB2 and EB3 both are doomed in the long run.

Today what is helping EB2 is the fact that economy is doing terrible. So EB2IC will move fast in the next few years.

But from long term perspective HR3012 is such an important thing to work on - not just for EB3 but for EB2 as well.


Why do you say EB2IC is doomed?

[Spectator]

Does anybody know whether all 2800 visas are consumed for EB3? If not, why EB3 dates are moving one week every month?IS81IS81,

No, all 2,803 visas are not consumed yet.

If you look at the figures, it is easy to see why EB3-I is only moving at about one week per VB.

The Demand Data showed 4,900 documentarily qualified cases at the beginning of the FY for CY2002.

Over the 5.75 months left for CY2002 (July 8 to December 31), this averages to 850 cases per month, but in truth the figure is probably higher than that (possibly 1,000 per month), or older cases are still becoming ready for adjudication.

In each of the first 3 quarters, a maximum of 27% of the total available visas can be used in each quarter. Pro-rated that works out as about 250 visas per month.

If there are 1,000 applicants per month and only 250 visa available, then the dates will only move forward at about 0.25 month, or 1 week per VB.

EB3-I with Priority Dates in 2002 and 2003 do not appear to be Porting in large numbers, so this effect gives little help to people with those PD.

[qesehmk]

Do you think that H1B denial trend is a product of current economic conditions? The same with "new incoming demand" as well. That itself is product of current economic conditions.


I think if the H1B denial trend in India continues, EB2-I will correct itself long term.

Also, aren't a lot of numbers from the PERM data are accounted by EB3 --> EB2 upgrade? The actual "new incoming" demand may not be as severe as we think.

EB1 is a problem though, and as long as they do not make EB1C go through the LC process, I think it will continue to be a problem.

[qesehmk]

I would agree that this is an important factor in current situation where bad economy and anti-immigration sentiment create the perfect storm for EB immigrants. However even in bad economy - 110K H1Bs were issued in 2010 including normal cap, US masters & non-profit ones.

So if economy bounces back I am very confident that the demand will come back roaring. As such I wouldn't call any such scrutiny a secular trend.


I personally think the H1B denials are a byproduct of the large scale H1B abuse between 2005-2009. I can cite in my personal experience many cases of forgeries in obtaining the H1Bs. The evidence is out there. The USCIS will be hard pressed not to deny cases that are not crystal clear. Crystal clear cases require a US degree and a full time job in a US corporation.

I have seen some threads on trackitt indicating people sitting with 221Gs in India and have become current (especially in the Jan bulletin). In some cases, the dependents are stuck too (I never thought H4 could be denied...but guess not). Yes, it sucks to be in that situation, but this is more of a norm than a temporary thing. It will result in demand trend from EBx-I changing substantially in future.

[amichael]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;14437]If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

qesehmk, can you please explain what you mean by "if your case is clear?" (Please excuse my ignorance...) :confused: And can you perhaps provide an updated prediction? (EB3 ROW; PD = 8/3/06) THANKS! :cool:

[qesehmk]

amichael, i haven't updated EB3 in a while. As per EB3ROW, for Aug 2006, expect the dates to be current in Sep 2012.

What I meant by "Clear Case" is a straightforward case with no complications, no transgressions or crime, good company - good job, availability of all documents. etc.



If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

qesehmk, can you please explain what you mean by "if your case is clear?" (Please excuse my ignorance...) :confused: And can you perhaps provide an updated prediction? (EB3 ROW; PD = 8/3/06) THANKS! :cool:

[isantem]

Spectator,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

I was looking on the PERM data that you published. Let me tell you that is an amazing job, thank you so much for all your efforts. You are making our life much easier.

I have two question. This numbers are including EB-2 and EB-3, is that primary applicant only or the family members? Where can I found how many EB2 has been approved to determine EB-3?

Thank YOU!

Have a great weeekend.

[kd2008]

I had a quick question about EB3-ROW.

Spec and others, do you think once EB3-ROW gets past the 2007 dates, it may move rapidly? - as there were fewer EB3 PERMS post-2007 to begin with and quite a few of them have even ported to EB2.

In just sheer numbers, how many applicants can we expect for EB3?

Ignore HR 3012 and its effects as it is not a law now & nor expected to be one any time soon.

[Spectator]

Spectator,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

I was looking on the PERM data that you published. Let me tell you that is an amazing job, thank you so much for all your efforts. You are making our life much easier.

I have two question. This numbers are including EB-2 and EB-3, is that primary applicant only or the family members? Where can I found how many EB2 has been approved to determine EB-3?

Thank YOU!

Have a great weeekend.isantem,

Thank you for the compliment. It is always nice to know that the effort is appreciated.

By definition, the PERM is only submitted for the Primary applicant, so the numbers do not include Dependents.

The second question is the $64k question!

The best you can do is make some assumptions. These have been discussed extensively in previous posts.

Also bear in mind that a PERM is not required for all EB2 and EB3 I-140 cases.

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM, nor any Schedule A cases submitted in either Category.

An extreme example of this would be EB3-Philippines, where the vast majority of EB3 applications are for Nurses and Physical Therapists, who cannot qualify for an H1B visa and must wait in the Philippines for Consular Processing.

This is reflected in the fact that NVC had 43k EB3-Philippines cases (including Dependents where noted in the approved I-140) awaiting Consular Processing as of November 1, 2011. That represents virtually 50% of the EB3 numbers at NVC.


I had a quick question about EB3-ROW.

Spec and others, do you think once EB3-ROW gets past the 2007 dates, it may move rapidly? - as there were fewer EB3 PERMS post-2007 to begin with and quite a few of them have even ported to EB2.

In just sheer numbers, how many applicants can we expect for EB3?

Ignore HR 3012 and its effects as it is not a law now & nor expected to be one any time soon.kd,

My personal opinion is that EB3 numbers for Countries other than IC will remain high through 2008. The overall numbers don't drop significantly until 2009 onwards.

I haven't seen any data to support whether EB3-non IC PERM applications dropped significantly from as early as 2008 or not. I suspect it is a bit later than that because it took some time for the full impact to be apparent and the effects of the recession didn't allow the opportunity to push for an EB2 PERM.

[isantem]

Spec, Q and other gurus :)

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[edisonguy]

Based on the demand, I know 21000 known demand before me. But just a quick question, is it possible for the dates to move to Feb 2009 this year for EB2I ? Is really the EB1C in peak ?

[edisonguy]

Is your case porting ? Curious on why did not file I485 last year ?

Spec, Q and other gurus :)

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[qesehmk]

isantem - EB3ROW allocation is 72% of 40K + 72% of extra FB visas this year ~4K. This comes to about 33K this year.

So EB3ROW will continue to move forward. In case of EB3 CO can calibrate move quite precise to match supply. So I do anticipate further movement. Good luck!

p.s. - if you must travel - ask lawyer - but my understanding is that as long as you travel on AP - it doesn't affect your 485 adjudication.


Spec, Q and other gurus :)

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[isantem]

Based on the demand, I know 21000 known demand before me. But just a quick question, is it possible for the dates to move to Feb 2009 this year for EB2I ? Is really the EB1C in peak ?

I am EB3 ROW. I don't think EB2I dates will move to 2009, what I am reading it will be early mid 2008 at the best. For EB3 ROW is demand build operation that happened to EB2I last fiscal year.


Is your case porting ? Curious on why did not file I485 last year ?

EB3ROW - January 2009 was never current. Thanks


isantem - EB3ROW allocation is 72% of 40K + 72% of extra FB visas this year ~4K. This comes to about 33K this year.

So EB3ROW will continue to move forward. In case of EB3 CO can calibrate move quite precise to match supply. So I do anticipate further movement. Good luck!

p.s. - if you must travel - ask lawyer - but my understanding is that as long as you travel on AP - it doesn't affect your 485 adjudication.



If I file early July probably I will not get my AP in time so I will need to travel on H1B....so you say that is a NO, NO?
My other option is file for I485 without the EAD and AP. And apply for EAD & AP just after I come back from travel with H1B?

P.S. Thanks once again about your response. Thanks to your effort of putting this website together and many gurus efforts I am small EB3ROW guru between my local EB3 friends :))

P.S.1 Spec I am refreshing every other second waiting for the master guru response :) Thank You!

[qesehmk]

Oh ok .... now i get the situation - you haven't even filed 485.

If I were you - I wouldn't worry a thing. Enjoy the wedding ... come back and then file 485.

If I am lucky and date become current - I will file early. IMHO (but don't hold me to this please) EB3ROW dates are not going to retrogress. So it's ok to wait a few months after everybody is in US and then file 485.
I am EB3 ROW. I don't think EB2I dates will move to 2009, what I am reading it will be early mid 2008 at the best. For EB3 ROW is demand build operation that happened to EB2I last fiscal year.



EB3ROW - January 2009 was never current. Thanks




If I file early July probably I will not get my AP in time so I will need to travel on H1B....so you say that is a NO, NO?
My other option is file for I485 without the EAD and AP. And apply for EAD & AP just after I come back from travel with H1B?

P.S. Thanks once again about your response. Thanks to your effort of putting this website together and many gurus efforts I am small EB3ROW guru between my local EB3 friends :))

P.S.1 Spec I am refreshing every other second waiting for the master guru response :) Thank You!

[Spectator]

Spec, Q and other gurus :)

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank Youisantem,

I honestly hesitate to answer.

I agree you are likely to become Current in July. Unfortunately, I also agree that dates might retrogress not later than September if USCIS process cases with the speed they did last year. Equally, there is some chance the dates won't retrogress until October.

What you do depends on your risk tolerance and how important it is to you and your family to file the I-485 application and how you could handle missing the boat in the worst case versus missing a very important family event.

Since it is such an important decision, I cannot suggest what you should do.

I can outline where I think EB3-ROW (no C&M) stands at the moment (but it is subject to error).

As of now, there are very few remaining cases that can be approved. Further approvals now mainly rely on AOS cases submitted from May 01, 2013 being adjudicated and approved as well as Consular Processed cases.

Even if an AOS case was received on May 01, 2013 and was adjudicated by USCIS in 3 months flat, then the earliest approval would be on August 01, 2013. It doesn't seem as if CO will see the new AOS demand until August at the earliest. He has to set the August VB in early July, when new AOS demand will not be apparent. That makes it less likely that he would retrogress the dates in the August VB.

Currently, I would estimate EB3-ROW to have used about 17.5k visas - EB3-ROW might have 27k available for the year, so 9.5k approvals might be necessary from new filers and CP.

Even though theoretically, EB3-ROW have a larger allocation, in reality EB3-P use some and EB3-ROW is the whipping boy for unused visas. Last year, EB3-ROW received 23,691 visas when the theoretical allocation was 29,848. The pattern is similar for previous years.

If CP represented 20%, then maybe as many as 5k CP cases could be approved from the COD movement to date, if the Consulates can handle the load. My gut feel is that the dates will not retrogress in August, but there remains the possibility that CO may be ultra cautious after leaving the EB2-IC PD too late for too long last year. Any retrogression could not be based on apparent demand - it would be gut feel. I can't double guess him.

Without knowing the demand that the movement will generate, it is difficult to say how long it would be before an Jan 2009 PD might become Current again, once it retrogresses - maybe a year or so.

As I said, it depends on your priorities, how important filing I-485 is to you and your family and whether you are prepared to accept any of risk missing out until the PD becomes current again.

You should know about the August VB dates about July 10, 2013. I don't know whether your circumstances allow you to wait until then to make a decision. It's also possible that the July VB may give some guidance or that some information will come out of the AILA Conference towards the end of June.

I wish you the very best of luck.

[isantem]

I honestly hesitate to answer.

Thank you very much for the time you spent to provide the response. You pointed out very well all the points that can influence what could happen and yes at the end is my decision and how important is for me the EAD and AP. I have a job that I like so I am not looking to change the jobs at all and my wife will be in school for another 1.5 years and we have the H1B/H4 until 2016 so I think I will risk it.

[isantem]

I needed just 9 more days :(:mad:
And it looks like it will not be any more move for EB3ROW this FY.
Why is so hard for him to move the dates ahead and let people to enjoy the "freedom" of EAD and AP. If the demand data is below the monthly limit he should move the dates and is covered by law and also it will make people happy. That is what he did last year why he can't do it now? Anyhow...back to work and struggle another year or two.

[shane.kelly55]

My Priority Date for my EB3 ROW is 02/09/2009 and according to the trends I might actually be current as of July next month.

Does this seem possible? Any chance i might be delayed? How much longer after i become current?

I'm totally stoked with the progress they are making this year.

[Spectator]

My Priority Date for my EB3 ROW is 02/09/2009 and according to the trends I might actually be current as of July next month.

Does this seem possible? Any chance i might be delayed? How much longer after i become current?

I'm totally stoked with the progress they are making this year.shane.kelly55,

If I understand your PD correctly, it seems you will miss out on the current movement.

The Cut Off Date in July for EB3-ROW will be 01JAN09 i.e. it covers all PD up to December 31, 2008.

Unfortunately, the VB also says


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (August - October)

Employment Third:

Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

That is a very strong hint that the Cut Off Date will not advance further than 01JAN09. With a PD of February 9, 2009 you would need a Cut Off Date of 15FEB09 to be Current.

I think it is very disappointing that it looks like it will not advance further.

The Cut Off Date for EB3-ROW is likely to retrogress to late 2007 at the beginning of the next FY beginning on October 1, 2013 or shortly thereafter. It may take a further 12-18 months to reach your PD, depending on how much demand is generated by the current advancement in the Cut Off Dates.

Best of luck and please correct me if I have misinterpreted your situation.

[mar2603]

Any idea how far EB3 will retrogress next VB?

[mar2603]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum and I just want to know any insight or thought or prediction.

When EB3 ROW PD is being moved to JAN 09, the DOS actually said there is not enough demand or the demand is not that strong.

They moved it again to July 2010. Everyone seems on one agreement that the date will retrogress.

Anyone could enlighten me how far it will retrogress?


Thanks,
Mar2603

[Spectator]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum and I just want to know any insight or thought or prediction.

When EB3 ROW PD is being moved to JAN 09, the DOS actually said there is not enough demand or the demand is not that strong.

They moved it again to July 2010. Everyone seems on one agreement that the date will retrogress.

Anyone could enlighten me how far it will retrogress?


Thanks,
Mar2603Mar2603,

Without any figures at all for new cases submitted by EB3-ROW, that is a very difficult question to answer.

Had the July 2007 Inventory not run out, it is likely that EB3-ROW would have reached Late 2007 or Early 2008 in FY2013.

It is likely that dates will retrogress to something around those dates when the Demand starts to show up to DOS. After that, the dates should move forward at the normal 4-6 weeks per month, depending on the actual numbers. That could stretch to 8 weeks per month if the number of new applications is actually very low.

As was evident last year with EB2-I, DOS not seeing the Demand is not the same as USCIS not receiving large numbers of new I-485 applications. Last year, DOS also reported seeing low Demand for EB2-I, but a huge number of cases had actually been filed with USCIS, as was subsequently seen in the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand Data.

As I have said previously, it was surprising to me that CO held dates at 01JAN09. At the normal rate that EB3-ROW move forward, that would not cover much more than Demand to the end of FY2014.

If Demand is actually a bit lower, it might not have even lasted that long.

The latest movement of dates is where CO should have moved them in the first place IMO.

After 2008 PD. I do have some hope that the numbers will drop appreciably. Now the dates have been moved forward into 2010, eventually we shall find out as the cases are pre-adjudicated. Don't expect the true numbers to appear in the USCIS Inventory if it is published for October. There seems to be a delay of 6-8 weeks to properly show numbers in it. It will take many months for the numbers to show in the Demand Data and only after dates have retrogressed.

Sorry i can't give you a better answer.

[mar2603]

Mar2603,

Without any figures at all for new cases submitted by EB3-ROW, that is a very difficult question to answer.

Had the July 2007 Inventory not run out, it is likely that EB3-ROW would have reached Late 2007 or Early 2008 in FY2013.

It is likely that dates will retrogress to something around those dates when the Demand starts to show up to DOS. After that, the dates should move forward at the normal 4-6 weeks per month, depending on the actual numbers. That could stretch to 8 weeks per month if the number of new applications is actually very low.

As was evident last year with EB2-I, DOS not seeing the Demand is not the same as USCIS not receiving large numbers of new I-485 applications. Last year, DOS also reported seeing low Demand for EB2-I, but a huge number of cases had actually been filed with USCIS, as was subsequently seen in the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand Data.

As I have said previously, it was surprising to me that CO held dates at 01JAN09. At the normal rate that EB3-ROW move forward, that would not cover much more than Demand to the end of FY2014.

If Demand is actually a bit lower, it might not have even lasted that long.

The latest movement of dates is where CO should have moved them in the first place IMO.

After 2008 PD. I do have some hope that the numbers will drop appreciably. Now the dates have been moved forward into 2010, eventually we shall find out as the cases are pre-adjudicated. Don't expect the true numbers to appear in the USCIS Inventory if it is published for October. There seems to be a delay of 6-8 weeks to properly show numbers in it. It will take many months for the numbers to show in the Demand Data and only after dates have retrogressed.

Sorry i can't give you a better answer.

Hi there,

Thanks a lot for your reply. I really appreciate this. Ok some clarification"

"The latest movement of dates is where CO should have moved them in the first place IMO." - you mean they don't have to move it to Jan 2009 first, instead straight to July 2010 right?

"After 2008 PD. I do have some hope that the numbers will drop appreciably" - This is actually true. In Trackit, there are some people posting PERM data and it seems that until mid 2011, PERM is not that bad plus a lot of people lost job, economy is down and so on.

"There seems to be a delay of 6-8 weeks to properly show numbers in it." - I do agree with this. My main point is, is this July 2013 demand data actually accurate?? If so then when it retrogress, is there any chance that it moved to Jan 2009? Since this is the basis that the CO moved the dates to July 2010.


Thanks,
Mar2603

[Spectator]

Hi there,

Thanks a lot for your reply. I really appreciate this. Ok some clarification"

"The latest movement of dates is where CO should have moved them in the first place IMO." - you mean they don't have to move it to Jan 2009 first, instead straight to July 2010 right?

"After 2008 PD. I do have some hope that the numbers will drop appreciably" - This is actually true. In Trackit, there are some people posting PERM data and it seems that until mid 2011, PERM is not that bad plus a lot of people lost job, economy is down and so on.

"There seems to be a delay of 6-8 weeks to properly show numbers in it." - I do agree with this. My main point is, is this July 2013 demand data actually accurate?? If so then when it retrogress, is there any chance that it moved to Jan 2009? Since this is the basis that the CO moved the dates to July 2010.


Thanks,
Mar2603Mar2603,

Back in January, I wrote a post about how I thought CO should move the Cut Off Dates for EB3-ROW as the Inventory became exhausted. You can find it here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2027-How-I-Would-Move-The-Cut-Off-Date-For-EB3-ROW-This-Year). In the post, I explain why and the consequences of not doing so. We are now seeing the possibility of some of those consequences becoming true.


"The latest movement of dates is where CO should have moved them in the first place IMO." - you mean they don't have to move it to Jan 2009 first, instead straight to July 2010 right?
I mean CO should have at least continued to move the Cut Off Dates, rather than stopping at 01JAN09.

I do think the early movement was too slow and he should have reached the end of 2008 at least a month earlier.


"After 2008 PD. I do have some hope that the numbers will drop appreciably" - This is actually true. In Trackit, there are some people posting PERM data and it seems that until mid 2011, PERM is not that bad plus a lot of people lost job, economy is down and so on.
I agree with that. If you consider that the ratio of EB2:EB3 PERM has swung heavily towards EB2, the EB3 numbers must have dropped significantly, regardless of the lower PERM numbers.


"There seems to be a delay of 6-8 weeks to properly show numbers in it." - I do agree with this. My main point is, is this July 2013 demand data actually accurate?? If so then when it retrogress, is there any chance that it moved to Jan 2009? Since this is the basis that the CO moved the dates to July 2010.
I believe the last published DOS Demand Data it is an accurate representation of the Demand that DOS can see. DOS cannot "see" cases that USCIS have not adjudicated.

The 6-8 weeks comment was for the numbers to appear even in USCIS own Inventory Report. DOS won't see the Demand for 3-6 months, depending how fast USCIS process the cases.

I think the recently published USCIS July Inventory reflects only a small fraction of the cases actually submitted to that date by EB3-ROW. Judging by EB2-IC last year, it will take several months to properly reflect the numbers. The earliest USCIS Invenry I would even remotely trust would be in May 2014.

The retrogression question is more tricky and subjective.

By the time October starts, the oldest "new" cases from May 2013 will be 5 months old. Even July 2013 cases will be 4 months old by the end of October. There has to be a high chance that USCIS will adjudicate many of those cases through October. That will be Demand against the 2.6k that EB3-ROW may have available for October 2013. With that in mind, there is a high likelihood, if CO takes that possibility into consideration, that EB3-ROW will retrogress in October back into 2008.

[eb2visa]

USCIS Service Center EB-485 Processing Volume Update up to June 2013 are released

[mar2603]

Mar2603,

Back in January, I wrote a post about how I thought CO should move the Cut Off Dates for EB3-ROW as the Inventory became exhausted. You can find it here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2027-How-I-Would-Move-The-Cut-Off-Date-For-EB3-ROW-This-Year). In the post, I explain why and the consequences of not doing so. We are now seeing the possibility of some of those consequences becoming true.


I mean CO should have at least continued to move the Cut Off Dates, rather than stopping at 01JAN09.

I do think the early movement was too slow and he should have reached the end of 2008 at least a month earlier.


I agree with that. If you consider that the ratio of EB2:EB3 PERM has swung heavily towards EB2, the EB3 numbers must have dropped significantly, regardless of the lower PERM numbers.


I believe the last published DOS Demand Data it is an accurate representation of the Demand that DOS can see. DOS cannot "see" cases that USCIS have not adjudicated.

The 6-8 weeks comment was for the numbers to appear even in USCIS own Inventory Report. DOS won't see the Demand for 3-6 months, depending how fast USCIS process the cases.

I think the recently published USCIS July Inventory reflects only a small fraction of the cases actually submitted to that date by EB3-ROW. Judging by EB2-IC last year, it will take several months to properly reflect the numbers. The earliest USCIS Invenry I would even remotely trust would be in May 2014.

The retrogression question is more tricky and subjective.

By the time October starts, the oldest "new" cases from May 2013 will be 5 months old. Even July 2013 cases will be 4 months old by the end of October. There has to be a high chance that USCIS will adjudicate many of those cases through October. That will be Demand against the 2.6k that EB3-ROW may have available for October 2013. With that in mind, there is a high likelihood, if CO takes that possibility into consideration, that EB3-ROW will retrogress in October back into 2008.

The 2.6K is per country limit correct? Or the whole EB3 ROW got 2.6K only?

For example, I'm from Indonesia, so my country limit supposedly 2.6 K right? Or the rest of the world only have 2.6 K?

[Pedro Gonzales]

The 2.6K is per country limit correct? Or the whole EB3 ROW got 2.6K only?

For example, I'm from Indonesia, so my country limit supposedly 2.6 K right? Or the rest of the world only have 2.6 K?

That's for the whole of the rest of the world but just for the month of October, not for the whole year. Indonesia itself has about 250 for the month, but will not come close to having that much demand.

[erikbond101]

Country limit is 7% of available visas, so that will be 2803 for Indonesia. For EB3-ROW that will be much-much higher as EB3-WW limit is 40040.
Spec, I do have one question why none of the EB3 countries are current if annual quota is 2803.

[Spectator]

The 2.6K is per country limit correct? Or the whole EB3 ROW got 2.6K only?

For example, I'm from Indonesia, so my country limit supposedly 2.6 K right? Or the rest of the world only have 2.6 K?The 2.6k refers to the notional monthly allotment that all of EB3-ROW might have available to them in October 2013.

In theory, the annual allocation for EB3-ROW in a year when 140,000 visas are available to EB is 29,128.

That is the 40,040 available to EB3 as a whole, less 2,803 each for India, Mexico and Philippines, less 2,503 for China.

The law says that not more than 27% of EB visas may be used in each of the first 3 quarters, which equates to 9% per month.

Prorated, EB3-ROW would have 29,128 * 9% = 2,622 visas available in October.

In reality, EB3-ROW never receives the notional allocation.

The notional 7% per Country limit within EB3 is 2,803 visas. With the exception of South Korea (which exceeds it for other reasons), no Country in ROW even remotely approaches that number. Individual Countries are constrained from doing so by the overall Cut Off Date set for EB3-WW.

Philippines (and in the past, Mexico before they reached the same Cut Off Date as ROW) regularly exceed the notional EB3 7% limit for other reasons, so EB3-ROW has less visas available than the calculated allocation would suggest (perhaps around 24-25k at best).

[Spectator]

Country limit is 7% of available visas, so that will be 2803 for Indonesia. For EB3-ROW that will be much-much higher as EB3-WW limit is 40040.
Spec, I do have one question why none of the EB3 countries are current if annual quota is 2803.erikbond,

Well before any EB3-ROW Country can reach their 7% limit in a year, the overall number of visas available to EB3 is exhausted. No individual Country can have a Cut Off Date later than that set for EB3-WW. That date is set based on the overall numbers available to EB3-WW.

About 150 Countries make up the ROW group, but only about 24k visas are available to them at best. That is an average of only 160 visas per Country, or less than 6% of the 7% limit.

Last year, South Korea used 5k of those alone (for reasons that have been explained many times), so the average available for the other Countries had already dropped to 125 each. That was in a year when extra FB visas were available.

In reality of course, not all 150 Countries have even 125 demand for the year, but insufficient numbers are available to Countries with higher demand to allow them anywhere near their own individual 7% limit.

Reaching the 7% limit is just a dream for EB3-ROW Countries.

[qesehmk]

Spec - 7% is an arbitrary number if you think about it. With 160 countries in the world - everybody can't have 7% anyway. The math just doesn't add up.


erikbond,

Well before any EB3-ROW Country can reach their 7% limit in a year, the overall number of visas available to EB3 is exhausted. No individual Country can have a Cut Off Date later than that set for EB3-WW. That date is set based on the overall numbers available to EB3-WW.

About 150 Countries make up the ROW group, but only about 24k visas are available to them at best. That is an average of only 160 visas per Country, or less than 6% of the 7% limit.

Last year, South Korea used 5k of those alone (for reasons that have been explained many times), so the average available for the other Countries had already dropped to 125 each. That was in a year when extra FB visas were available.

In reality of course, not all 150 Countries have even 125 demand for the year, but insufficient numbers are available to Countries with higher demand to allow them anywhere near their own individual 7% limit.

Reaching the 7% limit is just a dream for EB3-ROW Countries.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec - 7% is an arbitrary number if you think about it. With 160 countries in the world - everybody can't have 7% anyway. The math just doesn't add up.

In my old Trackitt days, in the midst of the debates on the fairness and rationality of the country caps, I'd stipulated that EB3I would be better served by decreasing the country cap to 1/160 each than as is. That audience there didn't much understand my math but the basic logic is sound.

40K visas split 160 ways allows each country 250 visas per year. Some 20 countries would be retrogressed, resulting in significant spillover from the remaining EB3ROW to the retrogressed countries. That spillover will then go to the most retrogressed candidates who all happen to be from India. EB3 I, by my estimate back then if memory serves me right, would have got about 10K visas per year.

[qesehmk]

Very good thought process. So if you think about it - 7% limit is more to restrict the four specific countries rather than have diversity.

Because your formula achieves diversity just as much as the 7% rule does. But 7% controls the flow from these 4 countries. viz. India china mexico and philipines.
In my old Trackitt days, in the midst of the debates on the fairness and rationality of the country caps, I'd stipulated that EB3I would be better served by decreasing the country cap to 1/160 each than as is. That audience there didn't much understand my math but the basic logic is sound.

40K visas split 160 ways allows each country 250 visas per year. Some 20 countries would be retrogressed, resulting in significant spillover from the remaining EB3ROW to the retrogressed countries. That spillover will then go to the most retrogressed candidates who all happen to be from India. EB3 I, by my estimate back then if memory serves me right, would have got about 10K visas per year.

[Spectator]

Spec - 7% is an arbitrary number if you think about it. With 160 countries in the world - everybody can't have 7% anyway. The math just doesn't add up.Q,

I agree.

That is why the total visas available to EB3-ROW (or a Category) becomes the rate limiting step for all Countries not pulled aside for reaching the 7% limit.

I don't think generally that people understand this concept if they are from a Country such as India that can (and do) receive the full 7% allocation.

The 7% concept has no meaning for ROW, since it is as unattainable as EB3-I ever becoming Current under current law. In fact, no ROW Country would reach it.

The effect on ROW of a single Country being allowed to use 30-50% (or 100% initially) of the allocation in a Category when there are insufficient visas to accommodate everybody must be obvious. EB3 is particularly vulnerable because both India and Philippines would both have a very large demand.

I am not a fan of per Country limits per se (it is an idiotic way to "ration" GCs), but I do think a control mechanism is required to best serve US interests if there are less visas available than applicants. That could be based on a severe shortage list or another similar mechanism, but simply removing the per Country limits in isolation is not the answer. Without it, the USA will find itself unable to attract people they need outside the skill base that a few high Demand Countries provide at present.

If sufficient visas are available, any control mechanism becomes moot, which is why I favour changes such as removing dependents from the count. Even in that situation, I would still favour the control mechanism being in the legislation in case it is needed in the future.

[Pedro Gonzales]

In my old Trackitt days, in the midst of the debates on the fairness and rationality of the country caps, I'd stipulated that EB3I would be better served by decreasing the country cap to 1/160 each than as is. That audience there didn't much understand my math but the basic logic is sound.

40K visas split 160 ways allows each country 250 visas per year. Some 20 countries would be retrogressed, resulting in significant spillover from the remaining EB3ROW to the retrogressed countries. That spillover will then go to the most retrogressed candidates who all happen to be from India. EB3 I, by my estimate back then if memory serves me right, would have got about 10K visas per year.

Source: DoS FY12 Annual Report (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5861.html) Table V Part II

Countries that exceeded by 250 per country level in EB3 in FY2012:
South Africa: 410
Bangladesh: 257
China: 2,827
Taiwan: 490
India: 2,804
Indonesia: 255
Iran: 288
Israel: 333
Japan: 692
South Korea: 4,975
Malaysia: 273
Nepal: 257
Pakistan: 1,090
Philippines: 6,479
Great Britain: 828
Poland: 695
Turkey: 284
Canada: 1,245
El Salvador: 270
Jamaica: 339
Mexico: 3,748
Argentina: 427
Brazil: 1,045
Colombia: 952
Ecuador: 644
Peru: 586
Venezuela: 737
Total: 33,230 (the rest were used up by countries that each used < 250)
Regular quota of 250 x 27 countries = 6,750
Spillover available = 26,480

After the first two years, 27 countries would be retrogressed to the same point.

Whenever people used the diversity card to rationalize country caps, and refused to accept that there was as much diversity in India as in Europe or South America, I'd show them this analysis and tell them that if they were so gung ho on country caps for diversity, drop it down to the real cap of 250 per country per year and I'd be fine with it. Though, on trackitt, my posts were drowned out by responses of "bring it on" by ROW folks who didn't understand the #s and "no, it'll make things even worse" by EB3I folk who understood the # even less.

[qesehmk]

..
I am not a fan of per Country limits per se (it is an idiotic way to "ration" GCs), but I do think a control mechanism is required to best serve US interests if there are less visas available than applicants. That could be based on a severe shortage list or another similar mechanism, but simply removing the per Country limits in isolation is not the answer. Without it, the USA will find itself unable to attract people they need outside the rather mono skill base that India provides at present.

I think the per country control mechanism is required for asylum cases. But for EB visas - I would rather market be that control mechanism for per country limits and then the US government can limit the overall visas. If US government wants to limit the skill then just do that saying so many green cards for these categories based on skills.

But to restrict people based on where they were born is utter discrimination and so unbecoming of various things that I have to admire of this country and its ideals.

[Spectator]

I think the per country control mechanism is required for asylum cases. But for EB visas - I would rather market be that control mechanism for per country limits and then the US government can limit the overall visas. If US government wants to limit the skill then just do that saying so many green cards for these categories based on skills.

But to restrict people based on where they were born is utter discrimination and so unbecoming of various things that I have to admire of this country and its ideals.Q,

Then we agree.

Currently there is no limitation of any sort on asylum and refugee cases. There used to be for one of them, but that was scrapped and the 2 categories combined now use as many visas as EB (151k in FY2012).

[gcq]

In my old Trackitt days, in the midst of the debates on the fairness and rationality of the country caps, I'd stipulated that EB3I would be better served by decreasing the country cap to 1/160 each than as is. That audience there didn't much understand my math but the basic logic is sound.

40K visas split 160 ways allows each country 250 visas per year. Some 20 countries would be retrogressed, resulting in significant spillover from the remaining EB3ROW to the retrogressed countries. That spillover will then go to the most retrogressed candidates who all happen to be from India. EB3 I, by my estimate back then if memory serves me right, would have got about 10K visas per year.

Good thought, but this has a flaw. What if ROW demand is high enough not to allow any fall-over ? Then EB3-I would be retrogressed severly than it is now. Remember all these years, EB3-ROW was mostly backlogged.

[gcq]

Spec,
In your analysis how EB3 retrogressed countries limit visas to EB3-ROW, you should consider one more ( the most important) factor, the PD. If PD of ROW is older than EB3-I, ROW would get the visa first. The fact is EB3-I is at 2003 and EB3-ROW is at 2010. You are not considering that disparity in PD in your analysis.

[Spectator]

Spec,
In your analysis how EB3 retrogressed countries limit visas to EB3-ROW, you should consider one more ( the most important) factor, the PD. If PD of ROW is older than EB3-I, ROW would get the visa first. The fact is EB3-I is at 2003 and EB3-ROW is at 2010. You are not considering that disparity in PD in your analysis.gcq,

Don't use the 2010 Cut Off Date that will become Current in September as the baseline for comparison - it's disingenuous at best. We both know the "true" COD by the end of this FY will be late 2007 or early 2008.

You are falling into the trap of thinking as the ROW Grouping as an individual Country. It is not.

It is impossible for EB3-ROW Group to have a Cut Off Date earlier than EB3-I. At worst, they could be the same.

If a Country within the ROW group had such high demand that they needed a Cut Off Date earlier than EB3-I, they would be pulled out of the ROW grouping an be shown as an individual Country in the VB with their own individual Cut Off Date.

Similarly, if India's demand overall were ever to fall sufficiently that they would not consume 7%, they would become part of the ROW grouping and not show as an individual Country.

The EB3-ROW group must, by definition have the latest Cut Off Date in a Category, since no Country may have a Cut Off Date later than that set for EB3-Worldwide. Worldwide has to include ROW, otherwise every Country would have to be shown separately and have their own individual Cut Off Date.

As a PS, the 7% allocation is computed for the total of FB an EB visas. Last year it was 25,967.

Only 4 Countries exceeded that number:

Mexico ---------------- 49,562
India ----------------- 44,862
China - mainland born - 38,948
Philippines ----------- 26,231

The only other Countries that even reached 5 figures were:

Dominican Republic ---- 20,382
Vietnam --------------- 15,910
Korea, South ---------- 13,216

Even the highest consuming ROW Country could have used another 5k and still been within the 7% limit.

[qesehmk]

That's simply because of all these illegal wars and activities that the previous administration undertook.

Now US must give protection to the snitches in those countries. That's what the asylum visas are. If asylum visas were truly humanitarian then half the world would already be here.
Q,

Then we agree.

Currently there is no limitation of any sort on asylum and refugee cases. There used to be for one of them, but that was scrapped and the 2 categories combined now use as many visas as EB (151k in FY2012).

[Spectator]

That's simply because of all these illegal wars and activities that the previous administration undertook.

Now US must give protection to the snitches in those countries. That's what the asylum visas are. If asylum visas were truly humanitarian then half the world would already be here.Q,

You're not wrong there!

[gcq]

gcq,


Even the highest consuming ROW Country could have used another 5k and still been within the 7% limit.

The rules as is now has 2 components.

1. Priority Date
2. Country cap.

As per INA, no country can be discriminated against ( i.e. they need to be allocated in in the order of PD). INA acknowledges that it is a discrimination otherwise.
The only time the first rule can be broken is when a country exceeds 7% of the overall quota. In that case that country need not be allocated any more visas.

In this order, retrogressed countries have a priority over ROW until the limit is reached. Once the limit is reached, ROW has a priority.

[qesehmk]

I admire you Spec for even saying that!!
Q,

You're not wrong there!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Good thought, but this has a flaw. What if ROW demand is high enough not to allow any fall-over ? Then EB3-I would be retrogressed severly than it is now. Remember all these years, EB3-ROW was mostly backlogged.

No, you're wrong. My concept is such a flight of fancy that it is a waste of time for us to debate it, but I'll respond because your argument was the response I kept getting on trackitt, and it's simply not true.

Firstly, I think you mean Fall Across, not Fall Over, right? For EB3I to retrogress even more than it is now, the spillover of 26,480 under my scenario would have to be < 2,554 (2,804-250). That's more than a 90% drop compared to what the 2012 spillover would be, or more than a 350% increase in applications from the 133 countries that don't use 250 visas each. Not likely to happen for another 30 years at least, in my opinion.

A simple check would be to look at the 2005 through 2007 DoS data (highest years of EB3 usage I would expect), and see where the numbers would be for those years. I'm willing to bet that the spillover under that scenario is at least 15,000 in each year.

[Spectator]

The rules as is now has 2 components.

1. Priority Date
2. Country cap.

As per INA, no country can be discriminated against ( i.e. they need to be allocated in in the order of PD). INA acknowledges that it is a discrimination otherwise.
The only time the first rule can be broken is when a country exceeds 7% of the overall quota. In that case that country need not be allocated any more visas.

In this order, retrogressed countries have a priority over ROW until the limit is reached. Once the limit is reached, ROW has a priority.gcq,

Close enough.

The first job is to identify those Countries that will, or are likely to exceed the 7% per Country limit.

The visa prorating provisions of Section 202(e) apply to allocations for a foreign state or dependent area when visa demand exceeds the per-country limit. The overall 7% figure is prorated across the FB & EB categories under 202(e). For a normal year, of the 25,620 that represent the 7% limit, EB3 would receive an allocation of 2,803 visas for the year.

Then the visa allowance is broken down into a maximum quarterly allotment of 27% for the first 3 quarters and then further into monthly allotments.

If you call that 9% per month, then the overall EB3 allotment would be 3,604 in each of the first 9 months of the total 40,040 available for the year.

The EB3-I monthly allotment is 3,604 * 7% = 252 visas. The same would be true of Mexico and Philippines and China would have an allotment of 225, since they only receive 2,503 visas in EB3.

That would leave the remaining monthly allotment of 2,623 for ROW.

That is a rather simplified version, but I have no reason to believe that underlying basis has been broken.

[mar2603]

Oh man don't get me started on Asylum. I know people that personally lied that they are being raped, persecuted, etc in my country that never true. Come to US and applied for Asylum and got Green card in a year.

Anyways back on Topic. I'm super convinced now that Nov/Dec VB will retrogress. The biggest question is how it moves after that.

Do you think DOS will employ the same tactics? move it to like mid 2011 on last quarter of 2014?


Thanks,
mar2603

[Spectator]

Oh man don't get me started on Asylum. I know people that personally lied that they are being raped, persecuted, etc in my country that never true. Come to US and applied for Asylum and got Green card in a year.

Anyways back on Topic. I'm super convinced now that Nov/Dec VB will retrogress. The biggest question is how it moves after that.

Do you think DOS will employ the same tactics? move it to like mid 2011 on last quarter of 2014?


Thanks,
mar2603I don't think that will happen.

The movement into 2010 should generate sufficient demand for at least FY2014 and FY2015 unless the numbers are exceptionally low.

I don't think the dates will move beyond what they will be in September until the Inventory built up from that movement is nearly exhausted.

How the dates move next year depends on the density of applications received.

I'm not convinced yet that Trackitt is providing a reliable guide to those numbers.

[mar2603]

I don't think that will happen.

The movement into 2010 should generate sufficient demand for at least FY2014 and FY2015 unless the numbers are exceptionally low.

I don't think the dates will move beyond what they will be in September until the Inventory built up from that movement is nearly exhausted.

How the dates move next year depends on the density of applications received.

I'm not convinced yet that Trackitt is providing a reliable guide to those numbers.

Oh i see. Wait, even taking into account that there was recession during 2008 - 2010?

[Spectator]

Oh i see. Wait, even taking into account that there was recession during 2008 - 2010?mar2603,

There was much talk about that last year when EB2-IC Cut Off Dates also went through the same period.

Ultimately, the effect of the recession didn't seem to be that marked.

Would be immigrants are great survivors, one way or another.

Whether it is the same for EB3-ROW, I don't know.

[mar2603]

mar2603,

There was much talk about that last year when EB2-IC Cut Off Dates also went through the same period.

Ultimately, the effect of the recession didn't seem to be that marked.

Would be immigrants are great survivors, one way or another.

Whether it is the same for EB3-ROW, I don't know.

Okay I do understand that now by looking at this - http://immigrationroad.com/visa-bulletin/visa-bulletin-by-preference.php?vb-country=India&vb-preference=EB2&preferenceSubmit=Get+Bulletin

Uhm, forgive me, but I'm not trying to do stereotyping or insult any Indian community here, but for some reason, a lot of Indian are in Consulting business. This is unlike ROW. For example, when I graduated from college, I got a job in rural Pennsylvania. I have couple friends who are EB3/EB2 ROW. Most of them are like me. Working for a company that I am the only one who being sponsored H1B or green card.

When I moved to NJ, I have a lot of Indian friends and they are all working in client site. In 2010, a lot of them have no projects and usually sitting on bench period. I feel their pain. They got payroll to keep their status afloat, but they got some arrangement or something that they need to pay it back after new project coming or something like that. Or waiting in India and their green card sponsorship still valid (since green card is future employment anyways).

In 2009-2011, i have friends on Merryl or Bear sterns, lost their job, (ROW and forced to go home). This is NOT the case with Indian with consulting job. When their project got cut off, they still have their status since their consulting company is their employer.

I believe a lot of people in EB2-I have this case and therefore they are immune to recession.

Also something weird, look at the data. Why they retrogress the date in the middle of 2012 and NOT beginning of fiscal year? They keep advancing cut off dates since may 2011. (looks like the same pattern like ROW right).

If you see last buletin, it clearly said, that "At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries. "

So this statement is a complete lie to public right? since there will be A LOT OF DEMAND even until january 2009 cutoff date.

BTW, I really appreciate your insight. I think you are great in prediction.

[Spectator]

Also something weird, look at the data. Why they retrogress the date in the middle of 2012 and NOT beginning of fiscal year? They keep advancing cut off dates since may 2011. (looks like the same pattern like ROW right).
In FY2011, CO decided to release some of the SO early and moved the COD from May of the FY and continued through September (the last month of the FY). That left the dates just short of exhausting the existing Inventory.

I some kind of grand experiment, CO decided to move the COD forward from October 2011 (the first month of FY2012) and continued to do so well past the July 2007 PD in an effort to create a new Inventory for the future. He did this in part because USCIS assured him that EB1 demand for the year would be very low and yield 12k SO.

USCIS then started processing the new cases faster than ever before and it turned out that there was no SO from EB1.

By the time this was realized in late March. EB2-IC had already used more visas than would be available to them in the full year and this caused EB2-WW to retrogress because there were not enough visa left to satisfy their Demand. EB2 ended up using more than the allocation for the year in just 6 months. It was a complete disaster.

CO cannot see demand until USCIS actually adjudicate the case. This is why he prefers to have a future pool of pre-adjudicated cases in the Demand Data, allowing him to move the COD more accurately.


If you see last buletin, it clearly said, that "At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries. "

So this statement is a complete lie to public right? since there will be A LOT OF DEMAND even until january 2009 cutoff date.
It's not a lie from the DOS point of view. Currently they are not seeing these cases.

Eventually, even the move to a COD of 01JAN09 will bring in a significant number of cases. The problem is that they do not translate to Demand that DOS can see until USCIS adjudicate them. At that point they are either approved (if the PD is still Current) or become pre-adjudicated and show in the DOS Demand Data (if the COD has retrogressed to equal to or earlier than the PD).

[mar2603]

In FY2011, CO decided to release some of the SO early and moved the COD from May of the FY and continued through September (the last month of the FY). That left the dates just short of exhausting the existing Inventory.

I some kind of grand experiment, CO decided to move the COD forward from October 2011 (the first month of FY2012) and continued to do so well past the July 2007 PD in an effort to create a new Inventory for the future. He did this in part because USCIS assured him that EB1 demand for the year would be very low and yield 12k SO.

USCIS then started processing the new cases faster than ever before and it turned out that there was no SO from EB1.

By the time this was realized in late March. EB2-IC had already used more visas than would be available to them in the full year and this caused EB2-WW to retrogress because there were not enough visa left to satisfy their Demand. EB2 ended up using more than the allocation for the year in just 6 months. It was a complete disaster.

CO cannot see demand until USCIS actually adjudicate the case. This is why he prefers to have a future pool of pre-adjudicated cases in the Demand Data, allowing him to move the COD more accurately.


It's not a lie from the DOS point of view. Currently they are not seeing these cases.

Eventually, even the move to a COD of 01JAN09 will bring in a significant number of cases. The problem is that they do not translate to Demand that DOS can see until USCIS adjudicate them. At that point they are either approved (if the PD is still Current) or become pre-adjudicated and show in the DOS Demand Data (if the COD has retrogressed to equal to or earlier than the PD).

Wow nice reply. Thank you for this. I kind a understand it now.

Hmm is there any published inventory of EB3 ROW approved I140 somewhere? I think that's going to be a good data to forecast the demand data don't you think?

[Spectator]

Wow nice reply. Thank you for this. I kind a understand it now.

Hmm is there any published inventory of EB3 ROW approved I140 somewhere? I think that's going to be a good data to forecast the demand data don't you think?mar2603,

CO also thinks so.

He has repeatedly asked USCIS for this information, but USCIS have said it is not available.

USCIS are either lying, too lazy, want to score a political point, or USCIS systems are so antiquated that they lack the ability to generate the report. Take your pick.

For cases that DOS process through CP, USCIS has to send them the approved I-140 and DOS do compile those figures (including dependents if mentioned on the I-140).

DOS publish a Summary document (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf) (not broken down by PD year unfortunately) annually.

[mar2603]

mar2603,

CO also thinks so.

He has repeatedly asked USCIS for this information, but USCIS have said it is not available.

USCIS are either lying, too lazy, want to score a political point, or USCIS systems are so antiquated that they lack the ability to generate the report. Take your pick.

For cases that DOS process through CP, USCIS has to send them the approved I-140 and DOS do compile those figures (including dependents if mentioned on the I-140).

DOS publish a Summary document (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf) (not broken down by PD year unfortunately) annually.

Wait a sec. But you can only add dependents to receive green card when you file I-485 right. I don't think I include my wife in my I140 application.

Usually when people calculate this, for every primary we do X 2.5 more or less.

USCIS is horrible lol. I think they are just plain lazy. sort of DMV worker in my area hahahaha

[Spectator]

Wait a sec. But you can only add dependents to receive green card when you file I-485 right. I don't think I include my wife in my I140 application.

Usually when people calculate this, for every primary we do X 2.5 more or less.

USCIS is horrible lol. I think they are just plain lazy. sort of DMV worker in my area hahahahaPart 7 of the I-140 form (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-140.pdf) asks for information about any dependents who will subsequently be applying for a visa or AOS.

The I-140 Instructions (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-140instr.pdf) say:


Part 7. Information on Spouse and All Children of the Person for Whom You Are Filing, of Form I-140 requests information about the dependent spouse and children of the alien beneficiary of the petition to assist in visa processing and in order for USCIS to better determine the demand for employment-based immigrant visas at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.

NOTE: An annotation of a dependent's intention to either apply for adjustment of status or an immigrant visa abroad in Part 7. of the Form I-140 is not binding, but should reflect the dependent's intent at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.

It is informational to help calculate numbers and processing type, but it is not mandatory to fill it in as far as I am aware. Not mentioning dependents on the I-140 should have no consequences.

[mar2603]

Part 7 of the I-140 form (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-140.pdf) asks for information about any dependents who will subsequently be applying for a visa or AOS.

The I-140 Instructions (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-140instr.pdf) say:



It is informational to help calculate numbers and processing type, but it is not mandatory to fill it in as far as I am aware. Not mentioning dependents on the I-140 should have no consequences.

I see. Because some people fall into category like me (get married after I140 approved couple years ago). And I think the rule is not binding is correct

[amulchandra]

I would like to ask the Gurus here one question. My PD is Jul 2006 Eb 3 I. In the absence of CIR , assuming that the current rate of porting continues, is there any possibility for my PD to become current in 2016? I am trying to mentally prepare for the worst possible scenario. It might look like I am living in a dream land - but I would like to hear from you all here who have a better understanding of these VB movements.

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

[kd2008]

Spec,

DO you think there will be a tussle to consume all of the visas in EB3 between EB3I and EB3ROW.

EB3ROW moved to 1 Jul 10. If you look at DOS waiting list then, CP cases can easily consume all the remaining EB3 visas

EB3I moved to Sep 2003. The CP + AOS cases can easily finish off remaining EB3 quota

If the tussle is real who may win?

[Spectator]

Spec,

DO you think there will be a tussle to consume all of the visas in EB3 between EB3I and EB3ROW.

EB3ROW moved to 1 Jul 10. If you look at DOS waiting list then, CP cases can easily consume all the remaining EB3 visas

EB3I moved to Sep 2003. The CP + AOS cases can easily finish off remaining EB3 quota

If the tussle is real who may win? kd,

Here's my thoughts. The comments are really thinking on the fly. I'd be interested in your view. With a few exceptions of those who have gone through the process, our (well, certainly my) knowledge can be described as hazy at best on the subject of CP.


If there is a tussle, I think it will be within AOS cases processed by USCIS.

Since the EB3-I cases are already pre-adjudicated with USCIS and EB3-ROW/C/M cases are only being adjudicated for the first time by USCIS, the winner seems obvious. The lowest hanging fruit which will enable the ISO to boost their productivity numbers are the EB3-I cases.

For CP cases, the visas are allocated in advance, when the VB is set. Barring no shows and denials which would result in the visa being returned later, those numbers would already be known to CO from the Consular reports he received in the first week of August before he set the September VB. Those CP cases will get their Immigrant Visa this FY if they are approvable at the interview.

The potential problem with CP cases may have been the ability of NVC/Consulates (and the applicants themselves) to make the cases documentarily qualified in time and to schedule sufficient interview slots given the short notice.

I did not see any posts in the forums about people (from either ROW or India) getting contacted by NVC to pay even the processing fee and submit initial information (call it packet 3), let alone be in a position to complete the final steps with NVC (call it packet 4). Even allowing for the fact that CP has fairly low representation on the forums, the virtually total lack of posts may be a clue that CO was unable to give NVC sufficient warning.

If numbers were large, ROW would probably have a slight advantage for CP, because India has a set number of Consulates that can issue Immigrant Visas (and therefore interview slots), whereas ROW is many individual Countries.

One thought that comes to mind is - if CO felt he could use up the remaining EB3 visas from CP alone (or even mostly from ROW CP), he would have had no need to move the EB3-I COD so far. That seems to imply that he didn't have sufficient ROW/C/M CP documentarily qualified cases to use the remaining visas when he set the September VB COD.

When I talked in January about how CO should handle the looming EB3-ROW situation, I moved the COD quite aggressively at the beginning (then retrogressed) precisely to give CP cases sufficient time to be processed. Then, later PD CP cases could, if necessary, ensure full use the ROW/C/M allocation by moving the COD forward again, if USCIS could not process sufficient numbers before the end of the FY. That approach also ensured that late PD CP cases did not preferentially consume the visa numbers purely because DOS could process them faster than USCIS could process AOS cases.

[Spectator]

I would like to ask the Gurus here one question. My PD is Jul 2006 Eb 3 I. In the absence of CIR , assuming that the current rate of porting continues, is there any possibility for my PD to become current in 2016? I am trying to mentally prepare for the worst possible scenario. It might look like I am living in a dream land - but I would like to hear from you all here who have a better understanding of these VB movements.

Thank you very much in advance

Amulamulchandra,

I think the answer to how EB3-I will move is quite a difficult one to answer.

The EB3-I COD has just moved into the PDs that have seen substantial porting and the forward movement might be expected to accelerate. Until now, EB3-I has generally moved forward at a fairly pitiful rate - often only 1-2 week per month.

With the information to hand currently, it seems difficult to see your PD becoming Current in FY2016 despite a brighter outlook going forward.

Here's the simplistic way I arrived at that conclusion.

Using the latest USCIS Inventory figures (which only represent about 93% of all cases) and a best case scenario:

a) If all cases up to September 2003 were approved this year.

Then 28.4k cases would be left going into FY2014 to cover a PD in July 2006.

b) Assume a further 3.4k porting cases will be removed for cases approved in FY2013.

That would leave 25k cases left going into FY2014.

c) Assume the EB3-I numbers reduced at a rate of 6k per year (total of EB3-I approvals plus porters) for FY2014 to FY2016.

At the end of FY2016 the number left to be approved to cover a PD of July 2006 would be 25k - (3 * 6) = 7k.

It might be possible to judge the new reality for EB3-I after FY2014.

Sorry I can't give either a better outlook or a more comprehensive reply.

[amulchandra]

amulchandra,

I think the answer to how EB3-I will move is quite a difficult one to answer.

The EB3-I COD has just moved into the PDs that have seen substantial porting and the forward movement might be expected to accelerate. Until now, EB3-I has generally moved forward at a fairly pitiful rate - often only 1-2 week per month.

With the information to hand currently, it seems difficult to see your PD becoming Current in FY2016 despite a brighter outlook going forward.

Here's the simplistic way I arrived at that conclusion.

Using the latest USCIS Inventory figures (which only represent about 93% of all cases) and a best case scenario:

a) If all cases up to September 2003 were approved this year.

Then 28.4k cases would be left going into FY2014 to cover a PD in July 2006.

b) Assume a further 3.4k porting cases will be removed for cases approved in FY2013.

That would leave 25k cases left going into FY2014.

c) Assume the EB3-I numbers reduced at a rate of 6k per year (total of EB3-I approvals plus porters) for FY2014 to FY2016.

At the end of FY2016 the number left to be approved to cover a PD of July 2006 would be 25k - (3 * 6) = 7k.

It might be possible to judge the new reality for EB3-I after FY2014.

Sorry I can't give either a better outlook or a more comprehensive reply.

Thank you very much Spectator for your detailed and in depth reply. I think as you mentioned I need to wait till next demand data is released to see exactly what the future holds.


Amul

[Spectator]

Thank you very much Spectator for your detailed and in depth reply. I think as you mentioned I need to wait till next demand data is released to see exactly what the future holds.


AmulAmul,

You're welcome.

I think it was an unsatisfactory reply because it is really only guesses and speculation.

The November DD should give an idea of the numbers going into FY2014, but I think it needs many more months to establish the pattern of movement in EB3-I for the FY.

[kd2008]

kd,

Here's my thoughts. The comments are really thinking on the fly. I'd be interested in your view. With a few exceptions of those who have gone through the process, our (well, certainly my) knowledge can be described as hazy at best on the subject of CP.


If there is a tussle, I think it will be within AOS cases processed by USCIS.

Since the EB3-I cases are already pre-adjudicated with USCIS and EB3-ROW/C/M cases are only being adjudicated for the first time by USCIS, the winner seems obvious. The lowest hanging fruit which will enable the ISO to boost their productivity numbers are the EB3-I cases.

For CP cases, the visas are allocated in advance, when the VB is set. Barring no shows and denials which would result in the visa being returned later, those numbers would already be known to CO from the Consular reports he received in the first week of August before he set the September VB. Those CP cases will get their Immigrant Visa this FY if they are approvable at the interview.

The potential problem with CP cases may have been the ability of NVC/Consulates (and the applicants themselves) to make the cases documentarily qualified in time and to schedule sufficient interview slots given the short notice.

I did not see any posts in the forums about people (from either ROW or India) getting contacted by NVC to pay even the processing fee and submit initial information (call it packet 3), let alone be in a position to complete the final steps with NVC (call it packet 4). Even allowing for the fact that CP has fairly low representation on the forums, the virtually total lack of posts may be a clue that CO was unable to give NVC sufficient warning.

If numbers were large, ROW would probably have a slight advantage for CP, because India has a set number of Consulates that can issue Immigrant Visas (and therefore interview slots), whereas ROW is many individual Countries.

One thought that comes to mind is - if CO felt he could use up the remaining EB3 visas from CP alone (or even mostly from ROW CP), he would have had no need to move the EB3-I COD so far. That seems to imply that he didn't have sufficient ROW/C/M CP documentarily qualified cases to use the remaining visas when he set the September VB COD.

When I talked in January about how CO should handle the looming EB3-ROW situation, I moved the COD quite aggressively at the beginning (then retrogressed) precisely to give CP cases sufficient time to be processed. Then, later PD CP cases could, if necessary, ensure full use the ROW/C/M allocation by moving the COD forward again, if USCIS could not process sufficient numbers before the end of the FY. That approach also ensured that late PD CP cases did not preferentially consume the visa numbers purely because DOS could process them faster than USCIS could process AOS cases.

Spec, Thank you for the detailed reply. I agree with your assessment. The only place where CP processing might be complete by end of September are really small countries with substantial US presence eg. S Korea as the cases might be few in number and people might be prompt in replying etc. But I completely agree that come Sept 3, USCIS is in a fantastic position to churn out approvals for EB3-I and therefore get a massive headstart.

[amulchandra]

I did some weird calculation.

I am trying to calculate the number portings done from eb3 to eb2 and still waiting for GC.
I took the unique number of viewers watching the thread 'EB3 to EB2 porters ONLY-Current in August bulletin-Join here!' on trackitt.
At one point in time there are 205 users watching the thread.

So 205 primary * 2.5 dependents translates to total 513 waiting and current I 485 applications.

Just for assumption (don't even ask me where I got this) if 10% of the porter applicants are active on trackitt then the total porters waiting will be 5130.

If all the 5130 porters interfile requests are recorded by Uscis into their system then the reduction in demand for eb3 I by the end of next month should be ~7000 SO covering till sept 2003+ 5130 = 12130.

Please don't laugh at my calcualtions but let me know what the gurus here think

[kalatta]

I feel bad as EB3I prediction and calculations thread in every immigrtaion forum is treated as a foster child compared to EB2 and other category prediction threads. In an effort to revive this thread I want to ask the gurus of this forum to predict when a PD of Dec 1 2003 EB3-I will become current.

My prediction is last quarter of FY 2014( probably SEP 2014). The prediction is based on the assumption that USCIS will clear all the cases that will be current in SEP 2013 and approves the monthly quota of 250 every month from there in FY2014, with NO spillover and no new I-485 applications with PD before DEC 1 2013 during this period.

Experts please chime in your thoughts

[Spectator]

I feel bad as EB3I prediction and calculations thread in every immigrtaion forum is treated as a foster child compared to EB2 and other category prediction threads. In an effort to revive this thread I want to ask the gurus of this forum to predict when a PD of Dec 1 2003 EB3-I will become current.

My prediction is last quarter of FY 2014( probably SEP 2014). The prediction is based on the assumption that USCIS will clear all the cases that will be current in SEP 2013 and approves the monthly quota of 250 every month from there in FY2014, with NO spillover and no new I-485 applications with PD before DEC 1 2013 during this period.

Experts please chime in your thoughtskalatta,

Unfortunately, EB3-I has been depressingly easy to forecast, due to lack of SO and fairly well known numbers.

The only part not well understood is how many cases disappear from Demand due to porting.

Now the COD has reached 2003, I think those numbers are greater and there is some hope of faster movement.

EB3-WW has received fairly decent approval numbers in August and many of the new EB3-WW cases are becoming ready to adjudicate.

For that reason, I not entirely convinced there will be sufficient spare visas to approve all EB3-I cases up to the 22SEP03.

From the last USCIS Inventory, nearly 7k EB3-I cases remain prior to 22SEP03. Some will disappear due to Porting, but I don't think there are many more of this year 2003 PD approvals to be removed.

At the moment, I'm not sure how much Fall Across from EB3-WW will be available to EB3-I.

[qesehmk]

I will echo Spec's thoughts and say that the movement so far for EB3I was extremely surprising. Following things could be the reasons or a combination thereof behind the movement. We don't know what is what today.

1. Portings from EB3->EB2 I
2. Movement of EB3I folks back home and having given up on GC
3. Irrational movement on part of CO.

My bet is on a combination of #1 and #2. Which would then won't require retrogression and you can expect to be current between 6-9 months.

However if #3 is present then retrogression is certainty and your PD won't be current for 9 months at a minimum.

[amulchandra]

I am not an expert but I will express my opinion anyways. I think USCIS will use this opportunity to clear that backlog till Sept 2003 for Eb3 I as best as possible.
There are instances before where Eb2 I was allotted EB 2 Row visas and EB2 ROW became unavailable because of that. On top of that EB3 I pending applications are pre-adjudicated and are easy to approve than fresh EB3 ROW cases. My gut feeling is that porting numbers are also under estimated. The economy picked up and EB3 I people from IT sector are porting in huge numbers. I am expecting a better movement for EB3 India in future.

[kalatta]

kalatta,

Unfortunately, EB3-I has been depressingly easy to forecast, due to lack of SO and fairly well known numbers.

The only part not well understood is how many cases disappear from Demand due to porting.

Now the COD has reached 2003, I think those numbers are greater and there is some hope of faster movement.

EB3-WW has received fairly decent approval numbers in August and many of the new EB3-WW cases are becoming ready to adjudicate.

For that reason, I not entirely convinced there will be sufficient spare visas to approve all EB3-I cases up to the 22SEP03.

From the last USCIS Inventory, nearly 7k EB3-I cases remain prior to 22SEP03. Some will disappear due to Porting, but I don't think there are many more of this year 2003 PD approvals to be removed.

At the moment, I'm not sure how much Fall Across from EB3-WW will be available to EB3-I.



I will echo Spec's thoughts and say that the movement so far for EB3I was extremely surprising. Following things could be the reasons or a combination thereof behind the movement. We don't know what is what today.

1. Portings from EB3->EB2 I
2. Movement of EB3I folks back home and having given up on GC
3. Irrational movement on part of CO.

My bet is on a combination of #1 and #2. Which would then won't require retrogression and you can expect to be current between 6-9 months.

However if #3 is present then retrogression is certainty and your PD won't be current for 9 months at a minimum.

Spec and Q,

excellent points. I seriously hope Point #3 is not the cause for movement. FY 2014 first 3 months visa bulletion and DD should paint clear picture on how the forward movement of EB3-I going to be. Also I hope USCIS is ready with enough pre-adjudicated cases for EB3-I to approve in SEP 2013 so that EB3-I can use the spill over and fall across visas from EB3-WW. Hope for the best

[kalatta]

I am not an expert but I will express my opinion anyways. I think USCIS will use this opportunity to clear that backlog till Sept 2003 for Eb3 I as best as possible.
There are instances before where Eb2 I was allotted EB 2 Row visas and EB2 ROW became unavailable because of that. On top of that EB3 I pending applications are pre-adjudicated and are easy to approve than fresh EB3 ROW cases. My gut feeling is that porting numbers are also under estimated. The economy picked up and EB3 I people from IT sector are porting in huge numbers. I am expecting a better movement for EB3 India in future.

Amul,

I do believe the porting numbers are under estimated. But looking around for EB3-EB2 porting data around forums, I do see lot of portings from people with PD in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, but I see very little for 2003( I could be wrong here as I just skimmed the trackitt data notes section for porting info). This make me think that ppl with PD in 2003 didn't port a lot or basically given up and abandoned it

[amulchandra]

Amul,

I do believe the porting numbers are under estimated. But looking around for EB3-EB2 porting data around forums, I do see lot of portings from people with PD in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, but I see very little for 2003( I could be wrong here as I just skimmed the trackitt data notes section for porting info). This make me think that ppl with PD in 2003 didn't port a lot or basically given up and abandoned it

Yes exactly. I see that people with PDs in 2003 did not port in droves. That's the reason I am 'HOPING' if we cross this 2003 hump we will see better movement for Eb3 I.

[Spectator]

Yes exactly. I see that people with PDs in 2003 did not port in droves. That's the reason I am 'HOPING' if we cross this 2003 hump we will see better movement for Eb3 I.I think you have to qualify that statement.

People with 2003 PD have not ported since August began.

In Oct-July there were 64 Trackitt cases with a 2003 PD that ported and just 1 in August. That might represent 1k cases, but they will have already been removed from the Inventory and Demand Data, as well as pre Sept 2004 PD cases that have been approved through June/July.

I have no doubt that 2003 PD have ported in previous years as well, but now that EB3-I has reached 2003, the pressure to do so has eased.

In previous years, if memory serves me correctly, the overall EB3-I Demand for all years has reduced by at at least twice that which could be attributed to EB3-I approvals.

[amulchandra]

I think you have to qualify that statement.

People with 2003 PD have not ported since August began.

In Oct-July there were 64 Trackitt cases with a 2003 PD that ported and just 1 in August. That might represent 1k cases, but they will have already been removed from the Inventory and Demand Data, as well as pre Sept 2004 PD cases that have been approved through June/July.

I have no doubt that 2003 PD have ported in previous years as well, but now that EB3-I has reached 2003, the pressure to do so has eased.

In previous years, if memory serves me correctly, the overall EB3-I Demand for all years has reduced by at at least twice that which could be attributed to EB3-I approvals.



Thanks Spec. Yes you are correct. But the drop in numbers did not affect the PD movement till date as it was like a drop in the ocean. Since the economy is improving , if the trend continues I think that will reduce the numbers more drastically than before and will start impacting the PD movements.

[isantem]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?

YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends. :)
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

[Kanmani]

YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends. :)
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

Congratulations!

[qesehmk]

Enjoy the freedom from H1 isantem!! Wish you the very best.
YES Q you were right again, again, again, again!!!! I got my greencards a couple of days ago. Thank you so much to all the Gurus that helped me so so so much! With the information from Q, Specs, Teddy and all other gurus I was guru myself between my other immigrant friends. :)
I wish you all the best in the World! Thank you Q for creating and maintaining this great discussion platform!

[krishn]

Guru's,

I have pulled in perm row approval numbers from data from << http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations >>

The EB2 row approval numbers from << http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html >>

can we guesstimate how many eb3 row I-485 applications could be filed between 2008 - 2013 ??


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

EB2 Row Approvals 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849


EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849

will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

The possible EB3I inventory for the next six months arrived (guess) from the past USCIS inventory reports:

EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 possible

2003 Sept
2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 813
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 885
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 753
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1,109 682 682
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 873


6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4871


from the pending i-485 inventory for eb3I , if we remove some %cases as upgraded/ported/abandoned/canceled ;

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?

[qesehmk]

krishn

My answer is most likely not this year. But next year possibly yes.

The reason is that ROWEB3 dates have been moved quite aggresively and now it is quite possible that EB3ROW demand is mature this year - unlike last year when most of those cases were fresh. So while we did see EB3I did receive some visas fall from their ROW counter parts, i think the possibility of this happening this year is quite less.

However next year - the scenario is going to change when EB3ROW may become current and might give some extra visas to EB3I.
will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

The possible EB3I inventory for the next six months arrived (guess) from the past USCIS inventory reports:

EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 possible

2003 Sept
2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 813
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 885
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 753
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1,109 682 682
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 873


6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4871


from the pending i-485 inventory for eb3I , if we remove some %cases as upgraded/ported/abandoned/canceled ;

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?

[krishn]

Q,

would you be able to throw out some light , on what multiplication factor can i use on perm row approvals and eb2-row-approvals year wise and arrive at eb3row yearly inventory from 2008 to 2013 ?


next say, that

From 2008 to 2013
perm row approvals were 110k , which includes eb3 row and eb2 row.
during the same time, eb2 row approvals were 180K

EB2 row being current for last 3 or 4 years,

doesnt that tell us eb3row i-485's will be very low ? probably less than their yearly quota (30k is my guess)

and with eb3I 485 inventory thinning out , wont the dates for EB3I move into next six months so as to not to waste visa numbers ?

[Spectator]

will there be any spillovers from EB3 ROW to EB3I this FY2014 ?

can we arrive at a date EB3I will move in this FY with its quota of visas ?I would agree with Q.

The latest news has strongly hinted that EB3-ROW/C/M (EB3-WW) will retrogress soon.

This means that this group can use all available visas available to them this FY and none will be available for Fall Across within EB3 to India.

EB3-I look likely to only have 3k available for the FY and they have already used a considerable number of those in October/November 2013.

I would see EB3-I progressing to late October/mid November 2003 by the end of the FY.

The ongoing demand for EB3-WW looks quite low by historical standards. There seems every chance that EB3-WW could become Current at some point during FY2015. When that happens, Fall Across to EB3-I will be available and EB3-I can look forward to much faster progress of the Cut Off Dates.

[qesehmk]

Krishn

Here is how i would look at the data (although to be honest I have pretty much stopped doing manual calculations!).

110K over 6 years => ~18K per year => 40K total demand per year for 485 (assuming 100% PERM to 485 conversion).

Of this we already know that EB2ROW generally consumes between 22K to 28K per year. So lets make this 25K. So EB3ROW is about 15K. Thus EB3ROW to EB2ROW ratio is approx 3:5

Makes sense?

Q,

would you be able to throw out some light , on what multiplication factor can i use on perm row approvals and eb2-row-approvals year wise and arrive at eb3row yearly inventory from 2008 to 2013 ?


next say, that

From 2008 to 2013
perm row approvals were 110k , which includes eb3 row and eb2 row.
during the same time, eb2 row approvals were 180K

EB2 row being current for last 3 or 4 years,

doesnt that tell us eb3row i-485's will be very low ? probably less than their yearly quota (30k is my guess)

and with eb3I 485 inventory thinning out , wont the dates for EB3I move into next six months so as to not to waste visa numbers ?

[qesehmk]

The ongoing demand for EB3-WW looks quite low by historical standards.
Spec thanks. Yes indeed EB3WW demand is quite low since 2008 because of two reasons ...
1. Recession lowered overall demand for WW.
2. Horizontal spillovers forced WW folks to move to EB2. Thus EB3WW demand has dramatically reduced.

Hindsight is quite 20-20 - ain't it?

[krishn]

Q, awesome , you are the best at the calculations

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125


so total eb3 row pending from 2008 to 2013 would be 41K

[qesehmk]

so total eb3 row pending from 2008 to 2013 would be 41K
Don't forget to multiply by 2.2 to account for the dependents.

[krishn]

Krishn

Here is how i would look at the data (although to be honest I have pretty much stopped doing manual calculations!).

110K over 6 years => ~18K per year => 40K total demand per year for 485 (assuming 100% PERM to 485 conversion).

Of this we already know that EB2ROW generally consumes between 22K to 28K per year. So lets make this 25K. So EB3ROW is about 15K. Thus EB3ROW to EB2ROW ratio is approx 3:5

Makes sense?

so its 15k per year EB3 row inventory is what needs to be assumed from 2008 to 2013.

[krishn]

Don't forget to multiply by 2.2 to account for the dependents.

sure , then the picture is complete

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589 110219

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849 178,576

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875 41332.125
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125 68886.875

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row * 2.2 dependents 24863.85 15713.775 13050.675 14237.85 15978.6 7085.925 90930.675
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row * 2.2 dependents 41439.75 26189.625 21751.125 23729.75 26631 11809.875 151551.125

[qesehmk]

Yes. This is good.

You can make it more accurate if apply the denial factors at 140 and 485 level. May be 5% at 140 level and 5% at 485 is more than sufficient.

But i generally like to not apply denial because then the prediction becomes conservative.


sure , then the picture is complete

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589 110219

Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849 178,576

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row 11301.75 7142.625 5932.125 6471.75 7263 3220.875 41332.125
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row 18836.25 11904.375 9886.875 10786.25 12105 5368.125 68886.875

factor(3/8) perm =eb3 row * 2.2 dependents 24863.85 15713.775 13050.675 14237.85 15978.6 7085.925 90930.675
factor(5/8) perm =eb2 row * 2.2 dependents 41439.75 26189.625 21751.125 23729.75 26631 11809.875 151551.125

[krishn]

with all the factors eb2row projections vs acturals there is a delta of 30k , so if we take that out of eb3 then , is it ok to assume 10k i485 inventory avg for every year from 2008 to 2013 , which would be 60k and then most of the cases till 2009 could be approved in fy2013 quota , can we assume that eb3 row inventory for fy2014 is 40k

[Spectator]

Q,

would you be able to throw out some light , on what multiplication factor can i use on perm row approvals and eb2-row-approvals year wise and arrive at eb3row yearly inventory from 2008 to 2013 ?


next say, that

From 2008 to 2013
perm row approvals were 110k , which includes eb3 row and eb2 row.
during the same time, eb2 row approvals were 180K

EB2 row being current for last 3 or 4 years,

doesnt that tell us eb3row i-485's will be very low ? probably less than their yearly quota (30k is my guess)

and with eb3I 485 inventory thinning out , wont the dates for EB3I move into next six months so as to not to waste visa numbers ?krishn,

What you are asking is very complex IMO. I actually think it is harder than calculating EB2 numbers because there are more variables and less data.

Even deciding what the allocation is has to be something of a guess, because the overall 7% equation is at play in EB3 for Mexico and Philippines.

Netting off the EB2 approvals is also problematic. EB2 is Current for ROW and Mexico and they are affecting by other factors such as PERM processing speed and the need for retrogression in FY2012 which distorts the number of approvals in a FY versus PERM Certifications for a CY PD. Even now, CY 2013 PD PERM are still a work in progress for DOL.

My sense is that EB3-ROW cases may have dropped to about 10k per CY, although I am not very confident in that number. If EB3-C and EB3-M account for an additional 6k, then EB3-WW demand would be 16k per CY movement forward of the Cut Off Dates against an allocation of perhaps 30k for the FY.

If that were the case, Cut Off Dates have reached 01OCT12 for EB3-WW to date and probably won't move further forward this year. In all likelihood, they will retrogress.

By October 2014, that would be 2 years difference, which might translate to 32k of theoretical demand, based on the above figures. However, during FY2015, another 16k would be added to theoretical demand. In fact the theoretical numbers would be higher, since not all cases with a PD up to October 2012 have been approved. On the positive side, DOL would not have processed a lot of the PERM, let alone USCIS process I-140, so actual demand that DOS would see would be considerably less than that number.

It is also quite possible that EB3-WW numbers have continued to decline during CY2013/CY2014. There is some (rather shaky) evidence that numbers for 2010/2011 are also somewhat lower than 2008/2009.

I hope you get a sense of the difficulty.

I think I have already covered why EB3-I dates are unlikely to move much over the next 6 months in a previous post.

[krishn]

Q, thanks a lot. may be i got little overexcited with the calculations of actuals vs projections. But you know the bigger picture and thanks for the through explanation. This helps a lot of EB3I guys who are always looking for some numbers and direction.

when the Apr 2014 inventory is out ,
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
we will get a better picture for EB3I folks.

Thanks

[krishn]

Thanks Spec

[krishn]

Q,Spec, anyone ,

what duration and how many visas does the DOS issue to USICS for EB3-ROW ? does it issue like quarterly say like 7k visas or like monthly 2.3 k visas ?

[Spectator]

Q,Spec, anyone ,

what duration and how many visas does the DOS issue to USICS for EB3-ROW ? does it issue like quarterly say like 7k visas or like monthly 2.3 k visas ?The only limit that DOS has is that no more than 27% of the total EB allocation may be used in each of the first 3 quarters.

Within that, it is possible for a Category (and Countries or Groups within a Category) to receive more or less than the notional 9% of their total allocation in each of the first 9 months.

The number that EB3-ROW might receive in a given month is more likely driven by their own demand and that of other Categories.

Here's the number of Trackitt approvals per month for primary applicants for EB3-ROW:

Oct -- 47
Nov -- 22
Dec -- 24
Jan -- 13
Feb -- 55
Mar -- 65
Apr -- 15

Note the "lumpiness" of the approvals.

As I alluded to before, deciding what is the allocation available to EB3-ROW is also not simple. This year, if 150k EB visas are available, then EB3 would receive 28.6% of that number (42.9k). Theoretically, after 3k each for China, India, Mexico and Philippines are deducted, then EB3-ROW might expect 42.9 - 12.0 = 30.9k.

In reality, they will not receive that number. Because of the overall 7% law, Mexico and Philippines can use more than 7% in EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. Mexico might be constrained from doing so by sharing the same Cut Off Date as ROW, but EB3-Philippines are likely to use in excess of 7k visas in EB3. That would reduce EB3-ROW allocation by at least 4k, meaning they would only have around 27k.

Here's some historical figures to illustrate the point:

-- FY --- EB3 7% -- Mexico --- Philippines --- ROW (Theory) -- ROW (Actual) -- Diff.
FY2008 --- 3,257 --- 5,325 --------- 6,154 --------- 33,804 ------- 29,884 -- (3,920)
FY2009 --- 2,803 --- 4,566 --------- 5,536 --------- 29,128 ------- 26,295 -- (2,833)
FY2010 --- 3,016 --- 7,740 --------- 3,651 --------- 31,323 ------- 24,328 -- (6,995)
FY2011 --- 2,803 --- 6,228 --------- 3,909 --------- 29,128 ------- 20,744 -- (8,384)
FY2012 --- 2,902 --- 3,748 --------- 6,479 --------- 30,148 ------- 23,691 -- (6,457)
FY2013 --- 3,172 --- 3,237 --------- 5,636 --------- 32,931 ------- 23,822 -- (9,109)

Total FY2008 - FY2013 ------------------------------------------------------ (37,698)
Average --------------------------------------------------------------------- (6,283)

The difference for FY2013 reduces to about 4k once Fall Across to EB3-I of 5k is deducted.

[krishn]

Thanks spec , I was trying to get an idea here of how many EB3ROW visas could be used and available for the FY2014.

off of the 30k they could have allocated/issued 20k till june and roughly around 9k for the last quarter months of july,august,sept.

[krishn]

heres how the EB3ROW dates progressed :

march-2013 01MAY07
april-2013 01JUL07
may-2013 01DEC07
june-2013 01SEP08
july-2013 01JAN09
august-2013 01JAN09
september-2013 01JUL10
october-2013 01JUL10
november-2013 01OCT10
december-2013 01OCT11
january-2014 01APR12

[krishn]

Here are the inventory numbers as of 1oct2013 and as of jan2014 , can we assume like they could have allocated 8k for EB3ROW ?


http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_October_01-2013.pdf

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
January 9 1 6 4 5 13 8 31 57 365 255 168 922
February 2 3 8 7 9 20 10 36 68 324 233 112 832
March 1 29 8 5 15 47 26 78 352 240 138 939
April 1 2 287 13 5 11 2 33 87 335 250 129 1,155
May 1 1 8 4 10 13 27 144 370 198 105 881
June 2 5 9 18 16 5 31 124 375 244 160 989
July 2 7 3 13 11 6 39 246 334 253 914
August 2 1 2 11 4 11 11 12 49 244 317 172 836
September 1 5 9 10 12 29 26 232 2,168 174 2,666
October 4 6 7 11 18 16 62 238 1,158 164 1,684
November 2 2 2 3 10 11 15 25 60 232 359 127 848
December 3 1 6 4 7 5 11 32 59 370 433 159 1,090
Total 9 17 4 21 379 85 113 166 192 479 2,120 6,890 2,469 812 0 0 0 13,756



http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
January 9 1 14 4 5 10 6 29 53 192 446 281 152 1,698 2,900
February 5 1 21 9 8 16 11 32 52 189 399 211 168 9 1,131
March 1 46 10 3 21 43 25 44 236 458 260 154 8 1,309
April 311 10 11 13 2 32 71 211 434 223 109 1,427
May 2 1 1 6 7 7 12 18 90 202 371 218 112 1,047
June 2 1 4 6 13 19 15 5 31 104 233 403 241 115 1,192
July 2 7 4 11 10 5 37 149 197 404 179 124 1,129
August 1 1 9 4 13 16 9 35 141 204 288 209 142 1,072
September 1 1 6 8 7 9 24 22 117 207 352 275 109 1,138
October 2 3 4 5 12 16 15 45 101 249 285 159 3 899
November 3 5 2 1 6 9 16 20 35 137 222 243 108 6 813
December 4 1 7 4 5 7 11 34 51 224 267 279 129 6 1,029
Total 13 24 4 20 435 85 112 165 174 392 1,283 2,609 4,362 2,493 1,200 1,715 0 0 15,086

[Spectator]

Thanks spec , I was trying to get an idea here of how many EB3ROW visas could be used and available for the FY2014.

off of the 30k they could have allocated/issued 20k till june and roughly around 9k for the last quarter months of july,august,sept.krishn,

You might be interested in the comparison of Trackitt approvals for FY2011 to FY2014 to date (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) for EB3-ROW.

It's certainly not an exact science, but might give you some thoughts about numbers.

Personally, I believe the number is already in excess of 20k, which is why likely retrogression in the near future has been mentioned in the latest comments from CO.

[krishn]

--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
PERM ROW ---------------------------------- 30,138 -- 19,047 -- 15,819 -- 17,258 -- 19,368 --- 8,589 -- 110,219
Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576
eb2row perm =Actual EB2 row approvals/2.2 - 19,358 -- 13,005 -- 10,526 -- 13,005 --- 9,434 -- 15,840 --- 81,170



Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year


from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 49k

so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 31k

==========


from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K

from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K

so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 14k

==========


from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K

so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 23k


=========

2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k

2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 48k

2009 - 2012 eb3ROW could be - 22k

[Spectator]

krishn,

I see different EB2-ROW approval figures from DOS (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics.html) to the one's in your post.

For example FY2013:

Total EB2 --------- 63,461

Less China ------- ( 3,627)
Less India ------- (17,193)
Less Mexico ------ ( 1,717)
Less Philippines - ( 4,439)

Total EB2-ROW ----- 36,485

--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
krishn EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576

Spec EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ------------ 44,934 -- 30,093 -- 24,427 -- 30,161 -- 21,778 -- 36,485 -- 187,878

The difference isn't huge, but I do like to understand the source of the data

[qesehmk]

Spec - On a different note - have you ever observed that USCIS and DOS published numbers are not quite same. Quite often they are different.

krishn,

I see different EB2-ROW approval figures from DOS (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics.html) to the one's in your post.

For example FY2013:

Total EB2 --------- 63,461

Less China ------- ( 3,627)
Less India ------- (17,193)
Less Mexico ------ ( 1,717)
Less Philippines - ( 4,439)

Total EB2-ROW ----- 36,485

--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
krishn EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576

Spec EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ------------ 44,934 -- 30,093 -- 24,427 -- 30,161 -- 21,778 -- 36,485 -- 187,878

The difference isn't huge, but I do like to understand the source of the data

[krishn]

I have taken out the china-taiwan ,


EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849

[Spectator]

Spec - On a different note - have you ever observed that USCIS and DOS published numbers are not quite same. Quite often they are different.Q,

It was the first thing I noticed when I first saw the DHS figures. I would say they are always slightly different, although generally not by much.

It doesn't surprise me. Two government departments that don't share information across common systems and don't want to.

[krishn]

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589
row 44934 30093 24427 30161 21778 36485
eb2row perm =eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 20425 13679 11103 13710 9899 16584







Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year


from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 51k
so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 29k

==========

from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 12k

==========

from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 21k


=========

2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k
2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 51k
2009 - 2012 eb3ROW perms could be - 20k

========

2008-2012 row perm - 101k
2009-2013 eb2 perm approval - 65k
2008-2012 eb3row perms could be -36k

==========
2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2009-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 65k
2008-2013 eb3row perm -- 45k

=========

2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2008-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 85k
2008-2013 eb3 row perm -- 25k

========

[krishn]

looks like from the uscis i485 inventory they have got past 2009 by Jan inventory report. are we looking at the max 21k perm eb3 applications converting to 485's. ?

isnt the perm running like an year behind and it takes like 6 months to process 485 (background checks etc) ?

probably shouldnt we consider 20k perm eb3 would be converting over to i485 from jan'14 to august'14 this year

it looks like with the huge eb2 row approvals vs perm row, there could be lot less eb3 row apps from 2010 than anyone would have thot and it would take sometime for uscis to get those 485s done.

[Spectator]

looks like from the uscis i485 inventory they have got past 2009 by Jan inventory report. are we looking at the max 21k perm eb3 applications converting to 485's. ?

isnt the perm running like an year behind and it takes like 6 months to process 485 (background checks etc) ?

probably shouldnt we consider 20k perm eb3 would be converting over to i485 from jan'14 to august'14 this year

it looks like with the huge eb2 row approvals vs perm row, there could be lot less eb3 row apps from 2010 than anyone would have thot and it would take sometime for uscis to get those 485s done.A couple of points to ponder.

a) Not all EB2 require a PERM. Historically, around 20% of EB2-ROW approvals appear to be NIW cases. Schedule A does not require PERM either, but I have no idea how many they represent.

b) The latest Cut Off Date EB3-ROW has reached is 01OCT12. DOL has passed that date for processing both Regular and Audit cases.

As of 04/04/2013 DOL were processing Sept 9, 2013 Regular cases and Jan 31, 2013 Audit Cases.

DOL were processing October 2012 Regular cases in January 2013 and Audit cases in December 2013.

Apart from a few delayed Audit decisions due to SR, the only additions now should be from be from Appeals at BALCA.

[qesehmk]

Dear Friends

I just learnt today that somebody i knew from work died over the weekend. While the relationship was work related the person was extremely intelligent and very honest one. I just feel sad that when he called on Thursday I was busy and couldn't talk to him.

That's what life is. We never know if this is our last conversation. This GC as well as career at some level is much less important than people around us. Just a small perspective that I reaffirmed my faith in today. I don't mean to start the week on a gloomy note. But I thought I at least owed this note in honor of this extremely bright and equally honest guy.

Regards,
Q

[Spectator]

Q,

I am very sorry to here that news. You clearly thought sufficient of the person to to mention them.

I completely agree with your philosophy - it's a shame that such events serve to remind us about it.

[krishn]

Dear Friends

I just learnt today that somebody i knew from work died over the weekend. While the relationship was work related the person was extremely intelligent and very honest one. I just feel sad that when he called on Thursday I was busy and couldn't talk to him.

That's what life is. We never know if this is our last conversation. This GC as well as career at some level is much less important than people around us. Just a small perspective that I reaffirmed my faith in today. I don't mean to start the week on a gloomy note. But I thought I at least owed this note in honor of this extremely bright and equally honest guy.

Regards,
Q

I am sorry for the loss. what was the reason for the sudden demise ?
Hope he rests in peace.

[krishn]

here are some more numbers to consider,

year----------------------------------------- --2008 --2009 --2010 --2011 --2012 --2013
PERM ROW----------------------------------- --30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 --8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ---------------- --22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc -------------------------- --17974 --12038 --9771 --12065 --8711 --14594


EB3 Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year) ---na- --18100 --9276 --3754 --8547 --4774

[krishn]

spec, doesn't schedule A , goes into eb3 and not eb2 ? eb2 requirements on usicis doesnt say schedule A but eb3 does mention it.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec and Krishn. He died of brain hemorrhage.
Q,

I am very sorry to here that news. You clearly thought sufficient of the person to to mention them.

I completely agree with your philosophy - it's a shame that such events serve to remind us about it.


I am sorry for the loss. what was the reason for the sudden demise ?
Hope he rests in peace.

[Spectator]

spec, doesn't schedule A , goes into eb3 and not eb2 ? eb2 requirements on usicis doesnt say schedule A but eb3 does mention it.Schedule A occupations do not necessarily have to apply under EB3, but the majority probably would.

A Nurse Practitioner would likely come under EB2, but it is still a Schedule A occupation.

For EB2, other than Philippines, it probably is not much of a consideration.

[redwood]

Thanks Spec for the quick analysis. Look forward to detailed analysis.

I am trying to tie EB3ROW inventory to what the CO said in the visa bulletin. The inventory for EB3ROW is 13K, does CO mean that it is sufficient for this year ? or is he saying we are finished with EB3ROW quota for the year, which I highly suspect. If the former is right, then EB3I should expect a huge spillover next year since there is hardly 5-8K EB3ROW demand for 2013 and 2014. Please enlighten.

P.S.: I am not EB3I

[amulchandra]

Thanks Spec for the quick analysis. Look forward to detailed analysis.

I am trying to tie EB3ROW inventory to what the CO said in the visa bulletin. The inventory for EB3ROW is 13K, does CO mean that it is sufficient for this year ? or is he saying we are finished with EB3ROW quota for the year, which I highly suspect. If the former is right, then EB3I should expect a huge spillover next year since there is hardly 5-8K EB3ROW demand for 2013 and 2014. Please enlighten.

P.S.: I am not EB3I

I am not an expert but I will share my thoughts. If the quota for EB3Row is used up for this year, it should be 'U' -unavailable. It cannot have a cut off date. I am assuming that they are going to clear all the cases till Marchl 2011 by the end of this FY. Next year will be interesting. My PD is july 2006. I am eagerly waiting for some spillover.

Thanks
Amul

[krishn]

the april'14 inventory is 13k for eb3 row. Will this have any impact on the eb3 I ?

[krishn]

will eb3I advance like last year ?

[krishn]

I am not an expert but I will share my thoughts. If the quota for EB3Row is used up for this year, it should be 'U' -unavailable. It cannot have a cut off date. I am assuming that they are going to clear all the cases till Marchl 2011 by the end of this FY. Next year will be interesting. My PD is july 2006. I am eagerly waiting for some spillover.

Thanks
Amul

Guru's please correct me if my thinking is wrong.

heard mentioning that they have 7% quota and visas are issued like more like quarterly basis or monthly basis , so when the dos sees uscis asking for more visas for a category then CO sees like more demand than available and establishes cutoff date for that quarter. so EB3 row may have finished up its may/june/july quota.

please correct me if am wrong.

Amul, am hoping there will be huge spill to eb3I over next year. (or perhaps this year end (aug/sept/oct'14) to save eb3row visa wastage.) By looking at the perm filing numbers, eb2 approvals and 485 inventory/processing times.

good luck

[Spectator]

will eb3I advance like last year ?In my opinion no.

EB3-ROW have sufficient cases to reach their allocation within the new COD of 01APR11. That means no Fall Across within EB3 to EB3-I this year.

Also, remember that the USCIS Inventory only represents AOS cases. ROW have around 15% CP cases, so the 13.1k in the USCIS Inventory might represent 15.4k total cases as of April 1, 2014.

Extrapolating to today, cases before April 2011 look to be more than the remaining allocation I believe they have left.

[Spectator]

Guru's please correct me if my thinking is wrong.

heard mentioning that they have 7% quota and visas are issued like more like quarterly basis or monthly basis , so when the dos sees uscis asking for more visas for a category then CO sees like more demand than available and establishes cutoff date for that quarter. so EB3 row may have finished up its may/june/july quota.

please correct me if am wrong.

Amul, am hoping there will be huge spill to eb3I over next year. (or perhaps this year end (aug/sept/oct'14) to save eb3row visa wastage.) By looking at the perm filing numbers, eb2 approvals and 485 inventory/processing times.

good luckGenerally, that is true, but there is considerable latitude in how individual Categories and groups are handled within the overall 27% per quarter limit.

CO mentioned in October that, this year, as much as possible, he was going to "front load" movement (and therefore potentially approvals) and retrogress later if necessary. With essentially no EB2-I since November and low EB2-ROW approvals all year, he has had plenty of visas to play with within the overall 27% per quarter limit for EB3 use.


On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

[krishn]

eb3I inventory for next 6 months from current PD as reported by uscis over the time:


EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 Apr-2014 possible


2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 951 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 797 797
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 848 848
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 725 725
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1109 682 663 663
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 854 854


Total 6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4838 4752

[krishn]

the 'possible' column is the lowest number from the earlier inventories reported. These next six months were never current after july 2k7 , so there is no possibility of new 485 filings. But they could only decrease because of porting etc.

And also I think in the pending inventory possibly 10% could be abandoned/R2I ones.

[Spectator]

I found this nugget at mitbbs.com http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32107949.html


There is a news yet to be confirmed that a Senator's office obtained information from USCIS that Texas Service Center has internally stopped processing EB3 China I-485 applications after May 9. This rumor is supported by zero statistics from online forums that normally report 5 to 15 approvals in the EB3 China category every day.

However, the visa bulletin from Department of State is meant to encourage USCIS to continue processing EB3 China I-485 applications. Could you reach out to your USCIS contact and verify whether Texas Service Center really made such an internal decision? If the answer is yes, could you challenge on what grounds they are allowed to do so? Such an internal decision will hurt hundreds of EB3 China petitioners who have legitimate right to receive their green cards in May 2014 before the visa bulletin retrogress in June.

My take on this is that the retrogression announced in the June 2014 VB for EB3-C went into effect immediately on the VB publication date.

I think that has happened because there are none to few visas left for EB3-C this year. A 6 year retrogression is as good as being made Unavailable.

Similarly, CO said retrogression for EB2-I to the December 2013 VB Cut Off Dates took place on November 20, 2013 due to excessive visa use.

[qesehmk]

I agree w you Spec. Dates being current is no guarantee of a green card. The visa numbers need to be there. If EB3C has already exhausted country quota then it doesn't matter if the dates are current.



I found this nugget at mitbbs.com http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32107949.html


My take on this is that the retrogression announced in the June 2014 VB for EB3-C went into effect immediately on the VB publication date.

I think that has happened because there are none to few visas left for EB3-C this year. A 6 year retrogression is as good as being made Unavailable.

Similarly, CO said retrogression for EB2-I to the December 2013 VB Cut Off Dates took place on November 20, 2013 due to excessive visa use.

[Spectator]

I agree w you Spec. Dates being current is no guarantee of a green card. The visa numbers need to be there. If EB3C has already exhausted country quota then it doesn't matter if the dates are current.Q,

CO gave quite a clever answer when asked by the Chinese about the rumour. http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32102179.html


Question:
A rumor says your office just released a memo to have EB3C 'U' this morning?
It's actually from an immigration officer of senator's office.

Oppenheim, Charlie W

They are wrong I have not, and will not issue such a memo. USCIS is able to receive and process and submit cases which have a priority date which is within the cut-off dates announced in either the May or June Visa Bulletins.

Basically

a) USCIS will continue to accept cases within the Cut Off Date in the relevant VB.

b) USCIS will continue to process cases received within the Cut Off Date.

c) USCIS will continue to submit visa requests to DOS as cases are adjudicated.


He carefully did not say that cases with a PD of 01OCT06 up to 01OCT12 would continue to receive approvals. (c) is not the same as saying DOS have any visas left for allocation when USCIS request them at the end of the adjudication process. The cases would just become pre-adjudicated.

From the DOS side, they had already pre-allocated the visa numbers for the May VB that were using Consular Processing, so immediate retrogression as far as issuing visas does not affect them.

CO answered the actual question asked, which was not quite the one that people think was asked.

As you say, a Cut Off Date being current does not guarantee approval, since it also requires a visa number to be available.

The Chinese do not seem (or want) to understand that.

I do think it does say something about the number of Chinese who downgraded from EB2 to EB3.

[redwood]

Great Post Spec !

I do not however want to ignore your earlier point about the Armageddon scenario for EB2I. It is a very real possibility and hence I have started looking at EB3ROW as a source for spillover to EB3I (and EB2I, similar to EBC).

Have you looked at such a scenario and what does your analysis say based on limited data (current EB3ROW inventory data and assuming we have 3-5K EB3ROW PERMs annually) ?

[YTeleven]

Great Post Spec !

I do not however want to ignore your earlier point about the Armageddon scenario for EB2I. It is a very real possibility and hence I have started looking at EB3ROW as a source for spillover to EB3I (and EB2I, similar to EBC).

Have you looked at such a scenario and what does your analysis say based on limited data (current EB3ROW inventory data and assuming we have 3-5K EB3ROW PERMs annually) ?

As per my analysis, I'm seeing a bright future for EB3-I from next year onwards and it will perform better that EB2-I. We will surely see the scenario like EB3-C in very near future.
Here are my predictions:
By the end FY14, EB3-I PDs could not move beyond mid Dec'03 but by mid FY15 EB3-ROW will become current and it will be in current from there on.
By the end of FY15 we will see EB3-I getting spillovers like 10k+ mainly from EB3-ROW and there on for every year in future we can see spillovers for EB3-I like what we are seeing in EB2-I currently.
In FY16 we might get a chance to see the scenario of downward porting like the current EB3-C.
This might be a little over stretched / bold prediction but this is what I'm seeing with the available data/trends.
I might be ignoring the EB3-Phil CP demand here but still I believe this is what will happen in next 2 years for EB3-I irrespective of EB1 & EB2 effects.

[YTeleven]

Sorry I don't want to put you down or anything, but this is just wishful thinking.
Sorry, this is NOT a wishful thinking but is my own feeling based on all the past and current publicly available data from all the govt. agencies on EB Immigration.

Remember that EB3-C advanced on its own without needing spillover from anywhere. The demand density is just too low in the China categories. That's just not the case in EB3I.
I'm only comparing the downward porting phenomenon and NOT how EB3-C came to that situation.

The only way where EB3I can advance very rapidly is supposing there is absolutely no demand post July 2007. For that, the date has to approach July 2007 first and I don't see that at all for the next several years.
I can only say that this is NOT completely TRUE to defend my predictions are NOT completely FALSE.


10K+ spillover from EB3-ROW is an overestimate. Why do you think there will be that kind of spillover available? Have you crunched PERM data and do you have any projected demand analysis?

Let me take the nearest prediction for now (and deal with other ones later as we will discuss this in coming months) i.e. EB3-ROW becoming current in mid of FY15. This is certainly a basis for the overall predictions for EB3-I.
Let's take the time-period from Apr'13 to Mar'14:
1) EB3-ROW moved from Jul'07 to Oct'12 (approx. 5 years movement)
2) Overall I-485 pre-adjudicated case down from 95K to 65K (these 65k might be just EB2-I & EB3-I only)
3) Overall I-485 Pending cases jumped from 45k to 80k (this 80k will further reduce in second half of FY'14)
4) No spikes in I-485 receipts or completions
5) No significant rise in I-485 EB3-ROW Inventory
My point here is instead of 5 yrs forwarded movement for a prolonged period of 1 year there is no significant inventory built-up and on top of it we saw 5k+ spillover to EB3-I.
Let's predict the period from Apr'14 to Mar'15:
1) We saw retrogression in PDs from Oct'12 to Apr'11 but there is no indication of EB3-ROW PD becoming Unavailable before Sep'14.
2) from above I strongly believe retrogression is a temporary and its due to anticipation of reaching the annual quota seeing the existing pending applications.
3) After Oct'14 the dates start move forward but this time we don't have 5 years of PDs to move and hence it will become current at certain time. The PERM approvals only tell us when will this happen will it happen in Q2 or Q3 of FY'15, but certainly it has to become current in FY15 and it will stay on current thereafter.

[redwood]

Here is my back of envelope calculation, if everything else remains the same. There could be plenty of things that can work in EB2I's favor.

First, EB2I

If PERM approval remains at ~7K/month pace, then we get 80K+PERMs for FY2015 and EB2ROW will consume most of the 40K EB2ROW GC's and any small spillovers from EB1. Rule of thumb for every 10K PERMS approved, 5K GC's will be allocated to EB2ROW. This means EB2I will get its 2.8K allocation only. So, no EB2I movement for FY15.

From FY16, I expect EB2I to get 5-10K GC's once the PERM backlog is removed.

Next EB3I

If the USCIS/CO have done proper calculation and allocation, EB3ROW should consume the rest of the 15K this year and will get to Apr 12 or near about by EOY.

Next year EB3 M P and C will get their 2.8K allocation for a total of 8.4K
EB3ROW will consume 8K GC's per year so from Apr 12 to say Dec 14 it will equal ~20K GC's

Now the rest ~11K (40K - ~20K - 8.4K) will all go to EB3I in FY15
From FY16 20K+ will be consumed by EB3I . I hinted in one of my previous posts a couple of months back that the fate of EB2C will befall on EB2I.

Now that is my analysis. Spec, we all wait for yours.



Thanks for the kind words everybody. It's clear people think the quote is as apt as I do.

redwood,

I was going to post my thoughts (and I still will), but I would be interested to hear your thoughts first. I don't think it is easy.

[YTeleven]

Here is my back of envelope calculation, if everything else remains the same. There could be plenty of things that can work in EB2I's favor.

First, EB2I

If PERM approval remains at ~7K/month pace, then we get 80K+PERMs for FY2015 and EB2ROW will consume most of the 40K EB2ROW GC's and any small spillovers from EB1. Rule of thumb for every 10K PERMS approved, 5K GC's will be allocated to EB2ROW. This means EB2I will get its 2.8K allocation only. So, no EB2I movement for FY15.

From FY16, I expect EB2I to get 5-10K GC's once the PERM backlog is removed.

Next EB3I

If the USCIS/CO have done proper calculation and allocation, EB3ROW should consume the rest of the 15K this year and will get to Apr 12 or near about by EOY.

Next year EB3 M P and C will get their 2.8K allocation for a total of 8.4K
EB3ROW will consume 8K GC's per year so from Apr 12 to say Dec 14 it will equal ~20K GC's

Now the rest ~11K (40K - ~20K - 8.4K) will all go to EB3I in FY15
From FY16 20K+ will be consumed by EB3I . I hinted in one of my previous posts a couple of months back that the fate of EB2C will befall on EB2I.

Now that is my analysis. Spec, we all wait for yours.

Your EB2-I estimate is too pessimistic and EB3-I estimate is too optimistic. I would take a middle ground.
Also, I would consider the following:
1) If you closely watch the EB2-ROW consumption, it has a pattern where it will consume more in one year and less in the next year.
2) When we consider PERM approvals ONLY 35 % will transform into I-485s and remaining 65% belongs to I & C which can only transform into I-140.
3) The combined total of EB2-I and EB3-I for last 4 years is at 25K per year...this will continue and will increase further from next year onwards due to EB3-ROW spillover

[Spectator]

Here is my back of envelope calculation, if everything else remains the same. There could be plenty of things that can work in EB2I's favor.

First, EB2I

If PERM approval remains at ~7K/month pace, then we get 80K+PERMs for FY2015 and EB2ROW will consume most of the 40K EB2ROW GC's and any small spillovers from EB1. Rule of thumb for every 10K PERMS approved, 5K GC's will be allocated to EB2ROW. This means EB2I will get its 2.8K allocation only. So, no EB2I movement for FY15.

From FY16, I expect EB2I to get 5-10K GC's once the PERM backlog is removed.

Next EB3I

If the USCIS/CO have done proper calculation and allocation, EB3ROW should consume the rest of the 15K this year and will get to Apr 12 or near about by EOY.

Next year EB3 M P and C will get their 2.8K allocation for a total of 8.4K
EB3ROW will consume 8K GC's per year so from Apr 12 to say Dec 14 it will equal ~20K GC's

Now the rest ~11K (40K - ~20K - 8.4K) will all go to EB3I in FY15
From FY16 20K+ will be consumed by EB3I . I hinted in one of my previous posts a couple of months back that the fate of EB2C will befall on EB2I.

Now that is my analysis. Spec, we all wait for yours.redwood,

Thanks for the reply.

This was the reply I penned at the time of your original post.


My thought (mostly guesses, rather than backed by data)

I'm finding it difficult to judge what the EB3-ROW demand actually is (and might be in the future).

I'm undecided as to whether EB3-ROW will become Current in FY2015. The number of existing cases falling through to FY2015, plus cases with a PD from October 2012 onwards might just prevent EB3-ROW becoming Current in FY2015. That said, because of processing times (both PERM and I-140/I-485), the date can be ahead of actual numbers, so it could happen. I think it will be close either way. On balance, I think there is a possibility towards the end of FY2015.

When the EB3-ROW dates move beyond 01OCT12 will depend on how many cases fall through to FY2015 and how many visas CO believes he has available for EB3-ROW in Q1 FY2015.

As EB3-I receives Fall Across, then the COD will start to move ahead faster, but there will still be a considerable underlying gap in PD between EB2-I and EB3-I for several years. It may reduce porting over time, but not eliminate it IMO. It will take at least a year for the numbers to slow, because the process has already started for the next batch and very few would become current under EB3-I even if the dates moved forward. The EB-C situation was different, since the EB3 COD was actually ahead of the EB2 COD and reverse porting has occurred.

I guess your point is that that more applications will be received in EB3-ROW as dates move forward rapidly, reducing EB2-ROW approvals and providing more Fall Across within EB2 to EB2-I.

That is an important consideration, both for Fall Across to EB3-I and for EB2-I. An increase will eventually reduce the Fall Across available to EB3-I. At the same time, it also reduces the chances of the Armageddon scenario because EB2-I would receive more Fall Across within EB2.

Since then I have looked at it a bit more, but not very comprehensively. At the outset, I must say that the figures I am working on may be (and probably are)unreliable, so please bear that in mind. This is a problem everybody has, so it is not surprising that there is a wide range in the opinions expressed.

Looking at Trackitt figures, the density of EB3-ROW cases appears to have dropped significantly after PD 2008.

No case with a PD of later than September 2008 was approved in FY2013 according to Trackitt. Based on EB-ROW having an adjusted allocation of 27k (due to EB3-P use) in FY2014, then perhaps 8k cases might fall through into FY2015.

EB3-ROW should become Current by sometime in Q2 FY2015 at the latest. Theoretically, cases with a PD up to September 2015 would become current at some point in the FY. Exactly how many approvals that generates in FY2015 would depend on PERM processing times to a large degree, as well as I-140/I-485 processing times. Cases up to a PD in 2014 would possibly be a better approximation.

EB3-I should receive some (reasonable) Fall Across in FY2015. I could see EB3-I backlog to July 2007 being cleared by sometime in FY2017.

Forward movement for EB3-I would slow down when they reached the same Cut Off Date as EB3-P (I am not sure what COD that would be when it happened), who have a very large number of EB3 CP cases. How big the slowdown would be might be determined by the EB3-P abandonment rate (unknown).

I don't really see a situation where it would be advantageous for an EB2-I applicant to reverse port to EB3-I, although movement of EB3-I would probably reduce porting from pre July 2007 PD cases eventually.

That is a fairly simple viewpoint and does not consider the changing dynamics of applications under EB3 as the COD moves forward. Any change is likely to result in increased amounts of Fall Across to EB2-I and reduced Fall Across to EB3-I.

PS :- I would increase your assumed number of approvals for EB3-P. Due to the overall 7% calculation, they will more likely receive 5-7k per year rather than 2.8k.

In your "If the USCIS/CO have done proper calculation and allocation, EB3ROW should consume the rest of the 15K this year and will get to Apr 12 or near about by EOY." I think you meant Apr 11, or whatever the COD is set at at in September. Even then, a certain % always miss out.

[Spectator]

I found this nugget at mitbbs.com http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32107949.html


There is a news yet to be confirmed that a Senator's office obtained information from USCIS that Texas Service Center has internally stopped processing EB3 China I-485 applications after May 9. This rumor is supported by zero statistics from online forums that normally report 5 to 15 approvals in the EB3 China category every day.

However, the visa bulletin from Department of State is meant to encourage USCIS to continue processing EB3 China I-485 applications. Could you reach out to your USCIS contact and verify whether Texas Service Center really made such an internal decision? If the answer is yes, could you challenge on what grounds they are allowed to do so? Such an internal decision will hurt hundreds of EB3 China petitioners who have legitimate right to receive their green cards in May 2014 before the visa bulletin retrogress in June.

My take on this is that the retrogression announced in the June 2014 VB for EB3-C went into effect immediately on the VB publication date.

I think that has happened because there are none to few visas left for EB3-C this year. A 6 year retrogression is as good as being made Unavailable.


Question:
A rumor says your office just released a memo to have EB3C 'U' this morning?
It's actually from an immigration officer of senator's office.

Oppenheim, Charlie W

They are wrong I have not, and will not issue such a memo. USCIS is able to receive and process and submit cases which have a priority date which is within the cut-off dates announced in either the May or June Visa Bulletins.

Some confirmation from Oh of what I found previously.


05/29/2014: State Department Reportedly Ceased Allocating EB-3 Visa Numbers for China Since May 9, 2014

Unofficial report indicates that U.S. Department of State has ceased allocating EB-3 visa numbers for China since May 9, 2014. Accordingly, since EB-3 visa number is scheduled to retrogress to 10/01/2006 in the June Visa Bulletin, some Chinese EB-3 I-485 applicants or EB-3 immigrant visa applicants may experience delays with their pending EB-485 applications or immigrant visa applications until the EB-3 numbers move back in the uncertain time of future.
http://www.immigration-law.com/

I don't know what their unofficial source is - possibly the same.

I've also seen:


DOS has confirmed that as of 5/9/14 it stopped authorizing visa numbers for EB-3 China cases that will be impacted by the June 2014 retrogression.

Cases in which a visa number has been requested by USCIS but not authorized by DOS will be placed in a “pending” file until the priority date is current.

on the Chinese website http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32118079.html.

[tatikonda]

from Oh Law....

http://www.immigration-law.com/

05/29/2014: State Department Reportedly Ceased Allocating EB-3 Visa Numbers for China Since May 9, 2014

Unofficial report indicates that U.S. Department of State has ceased allocating EB-3 visa numbers for China since May 9, 2014. Accordingly, since EB-3 visa number is scheduled to retrogress to 10/01/2006 in the June Visa Bulletin, some Chinese EB-3 I-485 applicants or EB-3 immigrant visa applicants may experience delays with their pending EB-485 applications or immigrant visa applications until the EB-3 numbers move back in the uncertain time of future

[krishn]

till what date are EB3-I folks getting medical/eval RFE's?

[krishn]

spec,

from your april 2010 http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2010/visa-bulletin-for-april-2010.html bulletin faq understanding,

do you think, if july'14 eb3-row i-485 inventory shows 2k pending, will the eb3I dates move into 2k4 june ? Apr'14 inventory was showing like 7k.
do you think eb3-row inventory will build up even with dates retrogressed to apr'11.

Thanks

[Spectator]

spec,

from your april 2010 http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2010/visa-bulletin-for-april-2010.html bulletin faq understanding,

do you think, if july'14 eb3-row i-485 inventory shows 2k pending, will the eb3I dates move into 2k4 june ? Apr'14 inventory was showing like 7k.
do you think eb3-row inventory will build up even with dates retrogressed to apr'11.

Thankskrishn,

I do not think there is any chance of EB3-I receiving Fall Across from EB3-WW in FY2014.

The COD for EB3-WW remained at 01OCT12 for April and May 2014 and I think the April Inventory under represented the true numbers received at that point anyway.

I don't believe EB3-WW have that many visas left for the FY within the number likely to be available to them (the exact number depends on how many EB3-Philippines can use in EB3 and stay within the overall 7% limit).

I expect EB3-WW to carry a sizable number of cases into FY2015.

If CO had any thoughts that EB3-WW would not use the visas available to them in FY2014, then he need only move the EB3-WW dates forward from the current COD of 01APR11. There should be more than enough pre-adjudicated cases up to the COD of 01OCT12 that EB3-WW reached earlier in the year to use any available visa numbers.

There is absolutely no need to move the EB3-I dates in anticipation of extra visa numbers being available within EB3 as a whole.

In the latest information from the AILA conference, the prognosis for EB3-I (according to "DOS sources") movement in the remaining VB for the FY is



EB-3 India: Not more than a week at a time.

That would give the sort of ending Cut Off Date for EB3-I I have always expected, given how many EB3-I approvals were made in October/November 2013.

EB3-I approvals on Trackitt are slightly lower than I would have expected at this point based on historical trends, but not outside the range that might be possible.

Sorry I can't give a more optimistic reply.

PS :- Also remember that the USCIS Inventory only contains AOS cases. Consular Processed cases may account for 10-15% of the total approvals for EB3-I and EB3-ROW. In the case of EB3-C and EB3-P the figure can be as high as 50%.

[migo79]

Spec:

how about the EB3ROW, giving the PERM slow down and I94 processing time, we can roughly says that eligible filers for i485 is June 2013.
giving the other fact that PERM skewed toward India and the higher or same ratio of EB2 than EB3.

what do you think EB3 ROW will perform next year?

[Spectator]

Spec:

how about the EB3ROW, giving the PERM slow down and I94 processing time, we can roughly says that eligible filers for i485 is June 2013.
giving the other fact that PERM skewed toward India and the higher or same ratio of EB2 than EB3.

what do you think EB3 ROW will perform next year?migo79,

I don't understand your first sentence.

Generally, I think the outlook is quite bright for EB3-ROW next year.

The data is sketchy, so bear in mind that this is a semi-educated guess at best.

I expect 8-10k EB3-ROW cases to fall through to FY2015.

Demand appears to have decreased sharply after 2007 and then leveled off from 2010.

If that were to continue, EB3-might become Current towards the end of FY2015.

The high number of cases remaining at the beginning of FY2015 may slow initial progress of the Cut Off Dates due to quarterly limits. It also depends how quickly the cases have translated to demand that DOS can see.

Progress towards a Current Cut Off date can be affected if more people start filing under EB3, rather than EB2, although that will not show an instant effect.

The effect of a mass change of Category can be seen by the effect of reverse porting of Chinese applicants from EB2 to EB3. I don't believe reverse porting would be a concern for ROW, since EB2 is current, but it does show the effect that increased demand can have.