EB3 Predictions & Calculations [Archive] - Page 2

Spectator

06-26-2014, 05:40 PM

Thank you Spec, that's a good rather excellent explanation :)

i was checking the numbers and came across this regarding the Perms:
http://data.niunational.org/perm/stats

as you said there is a sharp drop in Perms after 2007, this year (Q1 and Q2) and last year it is significantly low.

I hope things become stable, i was encouraged that VISA bulletin
didn't retrogress further which seems to show the demand has been materialized.

Thank you again :):)migo79,

That's a very nice resource. It seems to not have been updated for a year now (the last data is Q2 FY2013), which is a shame.

You can also find some breakdowns in this section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) of the FACTS & DATA forum including data to Q2 FY2014. You may find it easier to compare years by potential PD and by ROW as a whole. PERM Certifications remained fairly low through Q1 FY2014.

I intend to update the figures as soon as Q3 ends, based on data from dolstats and permchecker. I will then update it again when DOL release the official PERM Disclosure Data for Q3 (but that might take them 6-8 weeks).

P.S.:- Certifications for ROW in Q2 FY2014 were double those for Q1 2014. Q3 is even higher.

migo79

06-26-2014, 06:12 PM

Spectator

06-27-2014, 07:44 AM

Thank you Spec,

i guess that even if the numbers doubled it will be no way near 2006,2007,2008 numbers which i see was really high.

i was actually trying to come up with a magic number for EB3ROW to become current based on demand.

all numbers below are rough estimates of course :)
if we say 15000 Perm application approved per year out of that 50% are EB2 that will leave EB3 with 7500 if we double that number to account for dependents that will be 15000.

giving that EB3 gets ~34000 per year, was that be enough for EB3 ROW to become current?

i'm definitely assuming the backlog is getting cleared which again based on the number i see appear to be on its way to be cleared in the next 6 months or so.

am i missing something else?

Thanksmigo79,

Yes I think you are correct.

Once EB3-ROW becomes Current, then if demand is less than about 23-24k per FY, EB3-ROW should remain Current. ROW are those Countries other than China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Increased demand in EB3-ROW would impact who benefited from any spare visa numbers, assuming it also results in a drop in EB2-ROW demand. Low EB3-ROW demand favours EB3-I, while high EB3-ROW demand (and therefore lower EB2-ROW demand) favours EB2-I.

It's good to have a discussion about EB3 and ROW.

migo79

06-27-2014, 12:26 PM

Thank you Spec,
you are right there is little discussed about EB3-ROW even though it can be the key to a relief to some extent in EB3-I if it become current.

here is what i was trying to say:
it is currently takes 6 months to approve a PERM (no audit)
it takes also around 6 months to approve I-140.
so the number of currently eligible (waiters) to file for an I-485 should be at max the: June 2013 Priority Date.

i was checking the USCIS pending inventory history and it seems that EB3-ROW was plagued by the backlog of 2006,2007 and 2008 applications [man that was huge backlog they are working on!!!]

now that this backlog appear to be eliminated, IMO the ratio of pending applications seems to be equal of that for EB2 ROW.
in fact to get a very accurate number we have to look at the number of pending applications for EB2 for the same period.

for example the ratio of 2011/2012 EB2 filers appear to be equal to the very same EB3 that filed during this FY.

now i can imagine that EB3 ROW might be get current next year and in fact it should remain current or close to current for most of FY16 unless there are any surprises, but the PERM data currently available doesn't suggest there is any surprises.

Hope that become true and the whole EB3 gets some relief.

Spectator

06-27-2014, 01:52 PM

migo79,

I wouldn't agree with your 50:50 EB2:EB3 split.

Currently, I would say it is at least 70:30 and the PWD data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis) (which contains minimum education and experience data) tends to back that up.

I have no reason to believe that has changed. Unfortunately, there were errors in the Q2 PWD data released by DOL.

qesehmk

06-27-2014, 02:05 PM

migo79

06-27-2014, 03:52 PM

Well,

I agree with you as well, i was just trying to be conservative.

but you are right, the ration can be easily 70% EB2 and 30% EB3 which is again good news for EB3 folks. :)

krishn

06-27-2014, 08:55 PM

Migo79, earlier had attempted a guess work at eb3row inventory , if it helps you in anyways

here are some more numbers to consider,

year----------------------------------------- --2008 ---2009 ---2010 ---2011 ---2012 ---2013
PERM ROW----------------------------------- --30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 ---8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ---------------- --22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc -------------------------- --17974 --12038 ---9771 --12065 ---8711 --14594

EB3Row Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year)---na- --18100 --9276 --3754 --8547 --4774

migo79

06-27-2014, 10:28 PM

Thank you Krishn,

it is kind of amazing to see such low EB3 ROW demand, this definitely help.

in fact i was navigating more date and found out that last year DOS/USCIS wasted 9000 visa number for EB3 ROW.

currently USCIS is working on 4 years demand when they started to advance the priority dates starting Mar 2013

so from May 1st 2007 to 1st April 2011.

from your data this will be gustimated total of 31130 * 2 (counting derivatives +/-) = 62260
Number of Visa available should for previous FY and current FY (78000-9000) == 69000 visas.
so this can be well within current DOS cut off dates currently vs visas available.

of course all of the above is guestimates but based of the current available data, the margin of error should be very or fairly low unless each one applying has more than 3 dependents which i doubt.

i think if DOS haven't wasted these 9000 Visas EB3 ROW would've been current this September.

I understand that the DOS haven't moved the dates starting June 2014 because of quarterly limits, and also as Spec said, it might take the first quarter of 2015 quotas to eliminate the current load.

now what puzzle me guys and my question, does DOS has analysts that can do these calculations? specifically the PERM for EB2 and EB3 ROW is quite predictable since there are no noticeable porting happening so estimating the demand and visa numbers for EB ROW should be piece of cake with the data in hand.

or they just do the wait and see approach, move cut off dates and see what the demand is?

Thanks.

Spectator

06-28-2014, 09:34 AM

Migo79,

Last year, EB3-ROW lost a theoretical 6.2k visas, if EB3-I had not received any Fall Across and EB3 had reached the full allocation. The apparent extra use by Philippines is due to the application of the overall 7% limit and is at the expense of the EB3-ROW allocation.

In reality, the systemic failure to reach the EB3 overall allocation (at the expense of EB3-ROW numbers) means EB3-ROW only "lost" the 4.6k extra visa that EB3-I received. That systemic loss is a different issue.

EB3-ROW might realistically have received 28.5k in FY2013. EB3-ROW might receive 28k in FY2014, for a total of 56.5k had demand not run out at the end of FY2013.

I would say that the previous movements have created a demand of about 60k to date. Had that reduced by 28.5k last year and the further 28k that might be received this year, then there might have been about the correct number of visas available to deal with the Cut Off Date movement to 01OCT12 that EB3-ROW reached.

I do not think that EB3-ROW could have become Current in FY2014. The Cut Off Date might have progressed a little further than the latest seen to date.

DOS are hamstrung by the unwillingness (or inability) of USCIS to share data on I-140 approvals. With that, DOS could significantly improve their forecasting. CO has made his frustration about this known on several occasions. DOS can only see the demand as USCIS approve the case and the demand pattern is subject to how quickly USCIS are processing cases.

I do believe DOS should have foreseen that the Cut Off Dates for EB3-ROW needed to be moved forward earlier to ensure that sufficient EB3-ROW cases were able to be approved in FY2013 and use the allocation available to EB3-ROW. I had been warning of that danger, with access to far less information, so I do not say this in hindsight.

migo79

06-28-2014, 02:34 PM

Spectator

06-28-2014, 03:07 PM

wonderful Spec,

good work on numbers which match what is available :)

and for inter DOS/USCIS relations i really don't know what to say, we are talking about #1 country in technology, shame they will not be able to accurately share data between departments.

they must understand that in today's immigration systems, every single visa count :)migo79,

I am only stating it as I see it. If you agree, then fine, but don't feel compelled to do so.

Most long term members know that I think EB3-ROW have been very shoddily treated over the years and should have become Current some time ago. EB3 has consistently failed to reach the full allocation and use by Philippines and Mexico over the nominal 7% limit has deprived EB3-ROW of tens of thousands of visas.

Unfortunately, the Visa Office is part of DOS and USCIS is part of DHS (and their equivalents in the past). There is great "rivalry" between these two government departments and always has been. Quite apart from the appalling IT infrastructure, I think that has as much to do with the present situation. I think it is true to say that USCIS (formerly INS) has long had a chip on their shoulder after DOS were awarded the power to administer the visa allocation system when the two departments competed to do so.

It was only after what happened in July 2007 that sufficient pressure was eventually put on USCIS to compile an Inventory of pending EB cases. DOS always has done so at the NVC. We only saw the first USCIS Inventory in August 2009. Even that was error ridden and the first decent one did not appear until December 2009. USCIS has a long and undistinguished history of hiding the true levels of the backlogs (often by redefining what is counted in the backlog) from everybody, including Congress.

Rant over. I'll put my tin foil hat back on. :)

migo79

06-28-2014, 03:31 PM

krishn

06-29-2014, 04:56 PM

this is the most compelled answer and it closely match the available data, I would say that the only variable would be the number of derivatives per applicant but i think that shouldn't be an issue for EB3.

as for USCIS and DOS, really i don't know what to say, the immigration system is suffering and any unnecessary visa waste as a result of any department being sloppy shouldn't be tolerated.

the immigration system is broken and the current immigration system cannot be crushed more because of broken department :D

yes the only variable is derivatives per applicant in this data and these numbers could be mostly will be higher than actuals.

year------------------------------------------------- --2008 ---2009 ---2010 ---2011 ---2012 ---2013
PERM ROW------------------------------------------- -30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 ---8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ------------------------ -22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc --------------------------------- -17974 --12038 ---9771 --12065 ---8711 --14594
EB3Row Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year)------- ----na --18100 ---9276 ---3754 ---8547 ---4774

so my guess is (which is mostly not agreed by guru's) that if eb3-row dates are not moved ahead and made current or eb3I dates are not moved ahead , we might as well see eb3 visas unused this year fy14 as well for systemic(CO) inefficiencies.

Spectator

06-29-2014, 06:42 PM

so my guess is (which is mostly not agreed by guru's) that if eb3-row dates are not moved ahead and made current or eb3I dates are not moved ahead , we might as well see eb3 visas unused this year fy14 as well for systemic(CO) inefficiencies.krishn,

I partly agree and partly disagree with your statement.

I would not discount EB3 receiving less visas than their allocation again, purely because the effort to ensure they reach their allocation does not seem to have been a priority historically.

The greatest danger comes if CO is expecting EB3-P (whose COD is advancing rapidly) to use visa numbers which don't appear in the demand. That would be similar to what happened last year with ROW. That's not such a great risk as ROW, since 50-60% of EB3-P are CP and CO has good visibility on those numbers. In addition EB3 approvals seem in advance of where they need to be at this point in the year. Retrogression has had to be used to hold them in check.

Let's be clear, there is absolutely no need to move the EB3-I COD further to use up spare visas under any circumstances.

There are already sufficient preadjudicated EB3-ROW cases with a PD between April 2011 and October 2012 to use up any shortfall that might occur.

If CO thinks more approvals are needed, he only has to move the EB3-ROW COD forward appropriately from the current date of 01APR11. He does not need to make EB3-ROW Current. In fact, setting a Current date for EB3-ROW for August would have no effect on the number of EB3-ROW cases that could be approved this FY, given only 2 months would be left for processing. A large number of the current pending EB3-ROW cases will fall into FY2015 due to the Cut Off Dates.

Given CO has the option of moving EB3-ROW dates forward, he will not have to consider moving EB3-I dates forward as he did last year. Last year, that was the only option - this year it is not.

migo79

07-05-2014, 03:18 AM

Hey Spec, guys

just thinking out loud, since we know to certain extents that the number of EB3 ROW PERMS is lower and there is no real expectations of high demand based on the number we currently have.

why don't the DOS make EB3 ROW current starting with the new FY15, it is currently taking at least 4 month to adjudicate the cases and by the time they reach Q2 they will have a better understanding of the real demand.

they moved EB3 ROW almost 5 years in just 1 year, why not moving 2 years just up front and get done with it instead of waiting till mid or end of the FY15 to do it?

they can use Q1 allocation to finish any remaining backlog up till OCT12 and by the time they enter Q2 they can work on the remaining cases.

based on the PERM data i'm crunching, there will be no way that EB3 ROW have demand exceeding or nearing 28000 visas from OCT12 until now.

on another plain words they need to receive ~1600 application per month on FY15 mto use the quota available on FY15 which is quite not possible for EB3 ROW

Thanks as always

migo79

07-06-2014, 12:37 AM

to put this into more numbers contexts
according to PERM Checker, there are around

18739 Certified ROW PERMs 01OCT12 to 03Jul14 (this is certified so i'm excluding denied and withdrawn) and excluding (India,Mexico,China and Philippines)

if we apply a 70:30 rule for EB2 EB3 you get 5622 EB3 ROW PERM

let me add 1500 more as a margin of error and you get 7122EB3 ROW perms.

and that's indeed a very low number, EB3 only gets feed from PERM and nothing else so PERM is the only indicator here.

so 7122 ROW PERMS (expected filers) + 8000 ROW PERMS (expected carry over)
you get 15122 EB3 ROW perms total against 28000 Quota in FY15
only dependent is variable which for EB3 (mostly fresh or no experience) should not cause an issue.

Plus add that many of the above certified PERMS are not ready to file I485 yet since they have to wait for 140 approvals, so the expected number of filers expected to be much r somehow less than that.

btw: Cross checking the I485 Pending Inventory history was showing an heavily increased numbers for 2012/2013 EB2 ROW this will also stipulate your assumption Spec about the 70:30 EB2 EB3 filers

am i right here?

does really the number of EB3 ROW drops significantly which could be attributed to what economic slow down, EB3 porting and preference in filing EB2 for ROW?

IMHO that will be good news indeed for EB3 ROW since they likely get current as you suggested Spec
also good news for EB3I since they will likely get some decent spillover next year
and EB2I can be less stressed with slow porting from EB3I

so EB3 ROW current is good news for everyone.
what's your ideas?

Spectator

07-06-2014, 09:37 AM

I see some problems with your assumptions.

a) You are not considering dependent approvals.

b) PERM is not the only source for EB3. Schedule A does not need a PERM certification. Difficult to say what the factor is.

c) You are mixing up I-485 carry through and PERM (probably due to (a)). Last year, the ratio across EB3 was 1 primary to 1.14 dependents.

d) You need to consider PERM to be certified and PERM still to be certified that may turn into I-485 approvals in the whole of FY2015.

e) The increase in PERM certified (and therefore lowered processing time) in the recent past (and if continued) will lead to higher numbers of I-485 in FY2015.

f) EB3-ROW is very unlikely to have 28k available in FY2015 due to a lower overall EB allocation and the usual extra use by Philippines within the overall 7% limit.

I do see EB3-ROW becoming Current in FY2015, but only relatively modest Fall Across to EB3-I. FY2016 will be when EB3-I see a decent amount of FA, assuming EB3-ROW numbers do not rise significantly.

migo79

07-06-2014, 05:46 PM

Thank you Spec.

i'll account for these when i redo the calculation although i don't think it will change the consensus of EB3ROW being current next year.

however specifically for PERM processing I don't think that will be of any factors, if you look at 2010/2011/2012 PERMs the processing for an unaudited PERM was taking ~3 months.

IMHO the prime factors that advanced EB3 ROW to near current is:
a: low number of ROW applicants (~32% of yearly PERMS)
b: the majority of ROW applying in EB2 category.

but now to the other question, when should EB3ROW become current: beginning, Mid or end of FY15 ?

imdeng

07-08-2014, 03:45 PM

krishn

07-08-2014, 04:26 PM

Spectator

07-08-2014, 04:39 PM

EB-3P numbers are very interesting. Here is the movement for past few months:

Apr VB - 15JUN07
May VB - 01NOV07
Jun VB - 01JAN08
Jul VB - 01JAN09
Aug VB - 01JAN10

How bad/low the demand density must be post 07/07 for dates to fly off 2 years in last 2 VBs - that too at the end of the FY. This is not inventory generation - they are trying to not waste EB3P numbers for the year.imdeng,

I must admit i am a little surprised as well.

The NVC data from November 2013 showed 33k cases awaiting CP with PD dates up to near that date.

Previous data suggested that EB3-P had quite a high concentration of cases around 2007/2008. CP accounts for up to 50% of EB3-P cases.

Thinking out loud, I can only think of a few reasons why the COD has advanced so quickly.

a) Since a CP case is depedent on the original job offer remaining available, it's possible that has not been the case for a number of applicants. However, most nurses seem to go through agencies, who could keep the offer open.

b) Some applicants have just decided to abandon immigrating to the USA.

c) There is the possibility that all interview slots in Manila are full for the FY, limiting the number of immigrant visas that can be issued via CP. Philippines also has high FB immigration and 97% of those were CP last year. Immediate relative immigration is also quite high for Philippines.

I've seen other posts for different Countries where it has taken 3-5 months to get an interview appointment after becoming documentarily qualified.

If so, DOS would have to push the dates further to get the same numbers for AOS only applicants. Especially for RN, it can be difficult to be in the USA, since the qualification is assessed as an Associates degree and they are not qualified for an H1B visa.

As I said, the last point is very speculative. You are correct that there appears to be some desperation to use sufficient EB3 Philippines visas.

Spectator

07-08-2014, 04:43 PM

Guru's, any chance of eb3-P and eb3-c spillover to eb3-I ?? or will they go to eb3-row??There are sufficient preadjudicated EB3-ROW cases with a PD between 01APR11 and 01OCT12 to use any shortfall that might materialize.

CO only has to move the EB3-ROW COD forward to take up any slack, which means there will be no Fall Across to EB3-I this year.

migo79

07-11-2014, 04:47 AM

Spec:

I re calculated the number of PERMS from perchecker.com and it still stand on 18739 for OCT12 to July3
I actually compared historical DOL statistic for previous FY to permchecker and it seems correctly reflecting what DOL released just an offset of +200 applications.

does it really that low number for ROW?
if we consider a 10% denial application on I140 this is 16865

if we apply the 70:30 rule this is 5060 EB3 ROW

is that really is or it is too good be true? does really the number of ROW standing yearly after 2008 on this low number?

also is there a way we can get the number of I140 approvals from USCIS per category and chargeability?

imdeng

07-11-2014, 07:27 PM

Spec maintains the gold standard in PERM data collection here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

PERM filings for ROW has indeed come down from the 30K+ levels of 2007 PDs and 2008 PDs. After a low of 15.8K for 2010 PDs, they have rebounded a little to the level of 19.8K for 2012. The recent data should be considered incomplete because of the PERM slowdown. Still - I think ongoing demand from EB3ROW is on the lower side and we should see dates advancing rapidly once the new FY numbers become available.

Post 07/07 density for all EB3 categories seem to be really low. Recent jumbo movements in EB3P also points to the fact.

Spec:

I re calculated the number of PERMS from perchecker.com and it still stand on 18739 for OCT12 to July3
I actually compared historical DOL statistic for previous FY to permchecker and it seems correctly reflecting what DOL released just an offset of +200 applications.

does it really that low number for ROW?
if we consider a 10% denial application on I140 this is 16865

if we apply the 70:30 rule this is 5060 EB3 ROW

is that really is or it is too good be true? does really the number of ROW standing yearly after 2008 on this low number?

also is there a way we can get the number of I140 approvals from USCIS per category and chargeability?

migo79

07-11-2014, 10:00 PM

Thnak you imdeng
Spec data is very handy indeed :-)

saideb2007

07-20-2014, 04:53 AM

qesehmk

07-20-2014, 10:03 AM

Spectator

07-20-2014, 10:11 AM

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!saideb2007,

Welcome to the forum.

I don't think there is any chance of a 2007 EB3-I PD becoming Current in FY2015.

Currently there are about 31k EB3-I cases before 2007 after adding on an allowance for CP cases.

Even though that number may reduce due to porting, it will also increase when PWMB can eventually file their cases.

The amount of Fall Across required in FY2015 to allow a COD in January 2007 is simply too high.

If EB3-ROW become Current in FY2015, it is likely to be in the second half of FY2015 and will generate demand sufficient (depending on the timing) to use most of the ROW allocation. If there is any Fall Across within EB3 in FY2015, I think it is likely to be relatively modest.

Eventually, if EB3-ROW becomes Current, the numbers of ROW cases filed under EB3 will increase - it's inevitable.

I think it will take a few years to reach an EB3-I PD in 2007, even with Fall Across.

imdeng

07-20-2014, 10:46 AM

While prima-facie, I agree with Q that you should look at upgrading to EB2I if you have an option; it might make sense to see what is the magnitude of EB3ROW demand shortfall. If, for example, current demand in EB3ROW is low enough that 10K of horizontal spillover is available to EB3I once EB3ROW becomes current, then 2007 might be within reach in next 3-4 years. PERM data does suggest that EB-ROW demand is at historically low levels - so it is possible.

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!

saideb2007

07-21-2014, 12:41 AM

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

i have to say just WoW!!!, even with 10000 (if happen) it will take 3 to 4 years?
sorry for the naïve question but how did you do these calculations?
also why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, i recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just fraustrating :(

migo79

07-21-2014, 02:40 AM

Hi Imdeng,

i think 10000 FA to EB3I is a reasonable expectations based on the available data, i think this is howeverr will be available starting FY16
I also think based on the available PERM data that EB3 ROW would use close to their allocations next year if they become current.
if DOS makes it current by Mid of the FY15 then most of the ROW cases will be adjudicated and no substantial amount of FA will occur

if DOS makes ROW current last quartr then there will be a possibility of more FA to EB3I

Spectator

07-21-2014, 07:12 AM

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

Why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, I recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just frustrating :(I think there are probably a couple of reasons for this:

a) PERM numbers were relatively higher up until 2007/2008, before dropping dramatically in 2009 and then recovering.

b) The change in the Spillover interpretation from FY2008 onwards made EB3 very unattractive and caused a seismic shift downwards in the percentage of people applying under EB3.

All Countries (Philippines being the latest) in EB3 that have passed the 2007/2008 hump have seen rapid advancement of the Cut Off Date.

Unfortunately, EB3-I is left as the only Country yet to pass these dates and still has some way to do so. As with the other Countries, I would expect progress to be faster once they do so. On the positive side, porting of cases to EB2-I has eased the numbers considerably.

imdeng

07-22-2014, 08:43 PM

I meant 10k on an annual basis after EB3 is current - I expect none to very little in FY 2015 since there still is a couple of years of backlog to clear.

We don't have visibility into how drastic the post 07/07 demand drop is in EB3. All available data including PERM and PD movement suggests that the drop is quite significant.

Hi Imdeng,

i think 10000 FA to EB3I is a reasonable expectations based on the available data, i think this is howeverr will be available starting FY16
I also think based on the available PERM data that EB3 ROW would use close to their allocations next year if they become current.
if DOS makes it current by Mid of the FY15 then most of the ROW cases will be adjudicated and no substantial amount of FA will occur

if DOS makes ROW current last quartr then there will be a possibility of more FA to EB3I

imdeng

07-22-2014, 08:50 PM

Once EB3I crosses 07/07, it will move quite fast just as other EB3 categories have done. Unfortunately, there is a lot of inventory standing between the current PD and 07/07.

For calculations a good place to start would be the USCIS Inventory data, DHS Annual Reports and Spec's excellent compilation of PERM data on this forum.

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

i have to say just WoW!!!, even with 10000 (if happen) it will take 3 to 4 years?
sorry for the naïve question but how did you do these calculations?
also why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, i recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just fraustrating :(

krishn

07-27-2014, 05:04 PM

AILA recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories....

no info/mention of EB3-Row or EB3-I by both ??

migo79

07-28-2014, 02:01 AM

I think CO is concerned to make sure there are no visa wastage in the final bulletin so he is more concerned with potential Visa waste.
he already knew about EB3 ROw and I

I think the focus will shift to EB3 ROw by October Visa bulleting when EB2I will retrogress and DOL has most of the year to work EB3 ROW and potential movement of EB3 I

krishn

07-28-2014, 10:23 AM

I think CO is concerned to make sure there are no visa wastage in the final bulletin so he is more concerned with potential Visa waste.
he already knew about EB3 ROw and I

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?

qesehmk

07-28-2014, 10:45 AM

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?
I haven't followed this discussion ... so excuse any disconnect on my part. But EB3 has least chance of any wastage given how much mature their backlog is.

imdeng

07-28-2014, 11:29 AM

EB3 did not waste visas last year. They did assign more numbers to EB3I compared to EB3ROW - but overall as a category they did not waste visas. This year they seem to have enough demand to not even need EB3I backup. Right now EB3P is the only one seeking more demand - all other EB3 components seem all set for this FY. FY15 would be another story though.

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?

justvisiting

07-28-2014, 12:59 PM

I haven't followed this discussion ... so excuse any disconnect on my part. But EB3 has least chance of any wastage given how much mature their backlog is.

And yet, EB3 has had wasted visas in FY2011, 2012 and 2013...

justvisiting

07-28-2014, 01:03 PM

EB3 did not waste visas last year. They did assign more numbers to EB3I compared to EB3ROW - but overall as a category they did not waste visas. This year they seem to have enough demand to not even need EB3I backup. Right now EB3P is the only one seeking more demand - all other EB3 components seem all set for this FY. FY15 would be another story though.

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

qesehmk

07-28-2014, 01:15 PM

And yet, EB3 has had wasted visas in FY2011, 2012 and 2013...
Touche! I concede.

krishn

07-28-2014, 01:38 PM

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

will the EB3 visas again go unused or wasted for the FY14? that will be beyond imagination and excruciatingly painful for EB3 guys.

krishn

07-28-2014, 01:39 PM

the other question is, if there are leftover eb3c visas for FY14, will eb3-row get them or eb3I get ?

imdeng

07-28-2014, 02:10 PM

Ah - just checked Spec's handy analysis of the 2013 DHS report and you are correct - EB3 did get less than its allocation in FY2013. My mistake.

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

imdeng

07-28-2014, 02:16 PM

One - there shouldn't be leftover EB3C visas for FY14 since the dates are far fron C at the moment. If there is availability then PD can be advanced to generate enough demand.

Two - IIRC the most accepted opinion is that if there is demand available from countries that have not met the 7% threshold (essentially all of ROW) then any spillover will go to them first before it flows to EB3I.

the other question is, if there are leftover eb3c visas for FY14, will eb3-row get them or eb3I get ?

krishn

07-28-2014, 03:25 PM

One - there shouldn't be leftover EB3C visas for FY14 since the dates are far fron C at the moment. If there is availability then PD can be advanced to generate enough demand.

guess there was less 485 pending inventory in eb3C and eb3M than the available quota. since the dates are not moved in advance of required 485 processing time these EB3 visas are going wasted or unused.

imdeng

07-29-2014, 12:06 PM

Just looking through the inventory data, I had a thought that EB3I's prospects might not bee too bleak going forward. Consider the following:

1. Inventory upto 07/07 is 31.2K as of Apr 2014.
2. Inventory is shrinking due to porting. If we just consider 2004-2007 (i.e only porting reductions), the inventory reduced from ~35K in May 2012, to 32.2K in Apr 2013, to 27.4K in Apr 2014. So - lets call it 3K porting per year from EB3I with PD < 07/07. Add 3K of normal allocation - and you have 6K getting out from inventory every year.
3. Lets assume that we get 0 horizontal spillover in FY2015 and 8K horizontal spillover in FY2016 and FY2017.
4. By end of FY2017, we will run through a total inventory reduction of 6K+6K+6K+8K+8K = 34K
5. So we conclude the the current EB3I inventory will finish by the end of FY2017 (i.e. Sept 2017). Somebody who filed in EB3I on 07/07 will get his/her GC in ~10 years.

Of course there are issues with the speculations above. Porting will slow as dates reach closer to 07/07. Getting horizontal spillover from EB3ROW is something that may happen in very low numbers and might even not happen at all.

Also its worth noting that the density after 07/07 is likely to be quite low. So once dates from 07/07, they should move very quickly.

justvisiting

07-29-2014, 07:22 PM

If the DOS believes the inventory, (which I think they don't), then EB3-ROW-C-M-P should be made Current on the new FY, as there are enough visas to go around. (Although EB3-P has relatively higher CP cases, so this one may be held back).

migo79

07-30-2014, 12:40 AM

I think this inventory just proved that the calculations made by gurus are close to actual numbers.

it is expected that the carry over will be between 8000 to 1000 for ROW so DOS probably holding of 2000 3000+/- Visas for ROW until next FY.

Starting October they should at least move ROW to OCT12, remember that this PD remained current for 2 months, so i expect number of people who didn't yet file their I-485 to be relatively very small.

i think it is with December/Jan visa bulletin when DOS will move the dates aggressively maybe 6 months increment until maybe mid of FY15 where they might make ROW current if demand remain low (which is highly expected based on PERM numbers and EB2/EB3 ratio), the ~40% increase in ROW EB2 inventory also suggest that story.

amulchandra

07-30-2014, 02:35 PM

krishn

07-30-2014, 04:20 PM

FOR EB3 Row:

uscis pending inventory :

pending~~~2007~~~2008~~~2009~~~2010~~~2011~~~2012~ ~~allyears(97-14)
Jan'14~~~~1,283~~~2,609~~~4,362~~~2,493~~~1,200~~~ 1,715~~~15,086
apr'14~~~~889~~~~1,655~~~2,320~~~1,777~~~2,242~~~2 ,930~~~13,121
Jul'14~~~~771~~~~1,187~~~1,459~~~1,126~~~1,591~~~3 ,636~~~11,179

looks like just ~2k over all reduction in inventory for eb3row

DOS Visa Bulletins:

Oct13~~~~~01JUL10
Nov13~~~~~01OCT10
Dec13~~~~~01OCT11
Jan14~~~~~01APR12
Feb14~~~~~01JUN12
Mar14~~~~~01Sep12
Apr14~~~~~01OCT12
May14~~~~~01OCT12
Jun14 ~~~~~01APR11
Jul14~~~~~01APR11
Aug14~~~~~01APR11

Gurus,

from uscis eb3 row pending inventory and current date/cut off date(cod) from visa bulletins, there are only 7543 eligible inventory till 2011 for visa issuance. while this last quarters visa availability is 9000. So imho EB3 row COD dates have to move ahead , if some of these pending eb3 row are stuck in background check etc processing-delays, wouldnt DOS be better off moving eb3 row to 01oct12 ?

migo79

07-30-2014, 07:38 PM

To amulchandra:

imdeng did a wonderful analysis based on the available data,
based on when DOS may decide to make ROW current will determine if there will be an horizontal spillover in FY15.
if the low demand in ROW continue starting FY16 EB3I will have some good amount of spillover to use clearing the backlog.

Just looking through the inventory data, I had a thought that EB3I's prospects might not bee too bleak going forward. Consider the following:

1. Inventory upto 07/07 is 31.2K as of Apr 2014.
2. Inventory is shrinking due to porting. If we just consider 2004-2007 (i.e only porting reductions), the inventory reduced from ~35K in May 2012, to 32.2K in Apr 2013, to 27.4K in Apr 2014. So - lets call it 3K porting per year from EB3I with PD < 07/07. Add 3K of normal allocation - and you have 6K getting out from inventory every year.
3. Lets assume that we get 0 horizontal spillover in FY2015 and 8K horizontal spillover in FY2016 and FY2017.
4. By end of FY2017, we will run through a total inventory reduction of 6K+6K+6K+8K+8K = 34K
5. So we conclude the the current EB3I inventory will finish by the end of FY2017 (i.e. Sept 2017). Somebody who filed in EB3I on 07/07 will get his/her GC in ~10 years.

Of course there are issues with the speculations above. Porting will slow as dates reach closer to 07/07. Getting horizontal spillover from EB3ROW is something that may happen in very low numbers and might even not happen at all.

Also its worth noting that the density after 07/07 is likely to be quite low. So once dates from 07/07, they should move very quickly.

krishn

07-30-2014, 09:23 PM

conservatively we could see some 8k-5k spillover next year fy15 from eb3row to eb3I is my guess.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19756 14,471

EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
EB2 ROW Approvals 44,934 30,093 24,427 30,161 21,778 36,485

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 22467 15047 12214 15081 10889 18243
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents 17974 12038 9771 12065 8711 14594
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) n/a 18100 9276 3754 8547 5162
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) n/a n/a 43195 36318 32057 28180 19633

EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess n/a 39820 20407.2 8258.8 18803.4 11356.4

EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 19891.08 12571.02 10440.54 11390.28 13038.96 9550.86

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 : Assumption is every perm will result in 2.2 I485 to include dependents(spouse & children)
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents : setting aside 20% for niw (national interest waiver) schedule A etc.
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year so taking difference from last 3 years row approval and last 2 years eb2 approval
EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess : 485 is 2.2 times perm coz of dependents.
EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 : another way to arrive at 485 inventory is assuming 70:30 for eb2:eb3 ratio of perm row, and multiplying by dependents factor of 2.2

yearly perm approval data is from Spec, The Guru
and yearly eb2 approval data is from dos website

imdeng

07-30-2014, 09:41 PM

Nice work Krishn. I think I understand what you did in the attached image - but if you add some explanation text it would be helpful.

krishn

07-30-2014, 10:50 PM

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 : Assumption is every perm will result in 2.2 I485 to include dependents(spouse & children)
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents : setting aside 20% for niw (national interest waiver) schedule A etc.
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior 3 year Perm ROW - past+this year EB2 Approval) : since eb2 row was current assumption is eb2row filed last year could be approved the next year so taking difference from last 3 years row approval and last 2 years eb2 approval
EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess : 485 is 2.2 times perm coz of dependents.
EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2 : another way to arrive at 485 inventory is assuming 70:30 for eb2:eb3 ratio of perm row, and multiplying by dependents factor of 2.2

yearly perm approval data is from Spec, The Guru
and yearly eb2 approval data is from dos website

hope this helps.

migo79

07-31-2014, 12:42 AM

nice work Kirshn indeed!

Jagan01

07-31-2014, 12:46 AM

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

imdeng

07-31-2014, 06:59 AM

Use the one that came with I-797. That I-94 effectively replaced the one you got at the PoE.

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

amulchandra

07-31-2014, 08:38 AM

migo79

07-31-2014, 06:06 PM

imdeng

07-31-2014, 06:38 PM

Inventory might be low but there are 2+ years of demand yet to be counted. There is no need to hurry - CO might start with getting EB3ROW to the high water mark first and then move something like 6 month every month. He might hold it just before Current to see how much inventory is generated - and then if needed, make EB3ROW Current in the spillover season - July/Aug/Sept 2015 - and let any excess numbers flow to EB3I. Once it goes current, it is likely to stay current - but any spillover to EB-3I is only likely to happen again 2016 July/Aug/Sept - just like EB2I.

Who would have thought an year back that EB3I will have this bright a light at the end of the tunnel!

hey guys, question
in 2012 EB2 ROW retrogressed by ~3 years then in became current again in November Visa bulletin
the Inventory for this period for EB2 ROW was more than 15000 pending.

Why that won't happen again with EB3 ROW? they are retrogressed by ~3 years and their inventory in October should be much less that the EB2 ROW for that period?

i'm sure quarterly limit was enacted in 2012 as well?
any thoughts of what was going on during that period of time?

migo79

07-31-2014, 07:02 PM

that make sense :)
EB2ROW retrogressed for just 4 months vs the 2 years + of unknown Demand to DOS in nowadays EB3 ROW situation.

Thanks Imdeng :)

Spectator

07-31-2014, 07:29 PM

hey guys, question
in 2012 EB2 ROW retrogressed by ~3 years then in became current again in November Visa bulletin
the Inventory for this period for EB2 ROW was more than 15000 pending.

Why that won't happen again with EB3 ROW? they are retrogressed by ~3 years and their inventory in October should be much less that the EB2 ROW for that period?

i'm sure quarterly limit was enacted in 2012 as well?
any thoughts of what was going on during that period of time?migo,

The reason EB2-ROW was retrogressed for the last 3 months of FY2012 was because EB2-I were allocated so many visas (the EB2-I COD was accelerated to 01MAY10 and held at that date (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/employment-cut-off-dates/EmploymentIndia.pdf)), that the entire annual allocation for EB2 (including any FD from EB1, EB4 & EB5) was used up before the end of May 2012.

As a result, EB2-I was made Unavailable in the June VB (actually came into effect during May) and EB2-ROW was retrogressed due to non availability of further visas for EB2.

A retrogression to 01JAN09 for EB2-ROW was the equivalent of being made Unavailable, without the stigma associated with doing so.

The reasons this happened has been discussed previously.

CO deliberately staggered the EB2-ROW dates back to Current over the first 2 months of FY2013 to avoid of overloading USCIS in October 2012.

As a result, EB2-ROW visa usage in FY2012 was particularly low and usage in FY2013 was particularly high - the average use over FY2012/FY2013 was fairly normal.

migo79

07-31-2014, 07:37 PM

Thank you Spec for the as usual great explanation :)

krishn

07-31-2014, 07:48 PM

but any spillover to EB-3I is only likely to happen again 2016 July/Aug/Sept - just like EB2I.

did you mean 2015 or 2016 ?

migo79

07-31-2014, 08:02 PM

Wow,
out from 47257 certified to date, just over 15300 are ROW Perms, that's around 28% of total PERMS., that's still pretty low number even with the acceleration of PERM approvals this FY!

Things are poised to a bright year for EB3 ROW and yes Imdeng finally a light at end of the tunnel for EB3I
hope this trend continue :)

imdeng

08-01-2014, 08:29 AM

First a small chance in Summer 2015 and then a much better shot in Summer 2016. Essentially, EB3ROW and EB3I will do the same dance as EB2ROW and EB2I do every year.

did you mean 2015 or 2016 ?

imdeng

08-01-2014, 08:34 AM

Typically recently 55% of PERMs are India, another 7% China, 4% Phillippines and 2% Mexico (ball park figures) - total 68% - that leaves 32% ROW. 28% seems lower than even the recent typical numbers.

PERM slowdown is hitting everybody including India applicants - so that shouldn't change the composition of PERM approvals.

Very exciting days are ahead for EB3 folks.

Wow,
out from 47257 certified to date, just over 15300 are ROW Perms, that's around 28% of total PERMS., that's still pretty low number even with the acceleration of PERM approvals this FY!

Things are poised to a bright year for EB3 ROW and yes Imdeng finally a light at end of the tunnel for EB3I
hope this trend continue :)

Spectator

08-01-2014, 08:57 AM

Typically recently 55% of PERMs are India, another 7% China, 4% Phillippines and 2% Mexico (ball park figures) - total 68% - that leaves 32% ROW. 28% seems lower than even the recent typical numbers.

PERM slowdown is hitting everybody including India applicants - so that shouldn't change the composition of PERM approvals.

Very exciting days are ahead for EB3 folks.FY2014 YTD, the % of Certified PERM are:

China ---------- 7.10%
India --------- 55.73%
Mexico --------- 2.19%
Philippines ---- 2.51%
ROW ----------- 32.46%
Total -------- 100.00%

The % has remained relatively constant across all quarters of FY2014 to date.

ROW is about 3% higher than the figures for FY2013

China ---------- 6.06%
India --------- 59.46%
Mexico --------- 2.04%
Mexico --------- 2.64%
ROW ----------- 29.80%
Total -------- 100.00%

At the same point in the FY (Q3), FY2013 had 27,850 certifications compared to 47,276 certifications to date in FY2014 (+ 70%).

Hope that helps.

krishn

08-01-2014, 10:06 AM

Spec, a dumb question , is there any way to figure out eb3 or eb2 from perm data? is it at the 140 stage or perm step the eb2 or eb3 is determined ? Thanks

Spectator

08-01-2014, 11:11 AM

Spec, a dumb question , is there any way to figure out eb3 or eb2 from perm data? is it at the 140 stage or perm step the eb2 or eb3 is determined ? Thankskrishn,

It's not a dumb question at all.

The minimum requirements of the PERM (contained in the DOL LCR system, but not in the OFLC disclosure data) can generally tell you whether the PERM is aimed at an EB2 or not, but it is USCIS who ultimately decide at the I-140 stage on the Category by judging whether the minimum requirements satisfy the EB2 requirements and whether the candidate meets those minimum requirements. If they agree, the I-140 is approved. If they do not agree, the I-140 will be denied.

There is no direct way to split the PERM data into EB2 and EB3.

The PERM data contains the Country of Citizenship, which although not Country of Birth, is close enough for the vast majority of cases. Some people try to use the Wage Level to split the data, but that has serious limitations and I don't recommend it.

The Prevailing Wage data contains the minimum requirements for level of education and experience. It's possible to analyze that data to arrive at a rough EB2:EB3 split, but it is quite laborious to do it properly. Since the Prevailing Wage data does not contain any information about nationality, it isn't possible to directly split the EB3:EB2 % by Country.

With that base data and some assumptions, it's possible to arrive at semi-reasonable estimates of the EB2:EB3 ratio for the various Countries/Groups, although there is obviously an error margin in that exercise. The quality of the result depends on the quality of both the data analysis and the assumptions made.

krishn

08-01-2014, 11:31 AM

thanks a lot for the explanation

krishn

08-12-2014, 10:05 AM

amulchandra

08-12-2014, 10:17 AM

No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.

its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 10:21 AM

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!
Amul,

You ask any Guru on this forum ... the answer is unequivocal. EB3I should port to EB2I. The only exception would be people who are within 6-9 month window of the date that is current today for EB3I. Everybody else ... move onto EB2I.

rajasri

08-12-2014, 10:35 AM

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance

imdeng

08-12-2014, 10:45 AM

Krishn - I don't think there was an expectation of movement in EB3ROW this FY. Only category showing promise was EB3P - and that did move forward quite a bit.

EB3I could have had a small movement - but if you see trackitt, there have been several approvals in last few weeks - so it was possible for EB3I to have finished its quota already. So as such there are no surprises in this VB.

No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.

its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.

imdeng

08-12-2014, 10:50 AM

If you look at the inventory, Nov-03 to Feb-04 (both ends included) has demand of ~2900. So, just using the regular allocation, you have a very decent shot of getting through in 12+/-2 months from now. 2 months is for various contingencies.

Update: Could be earlier if CO releases EB3I quota early in the year. Although past evidence does not support that,

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 10:52 AM

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance
Rajasri,
Welcome to forum. Nov to Feb is barely 3 months. So you should definitely get it during 2015. The only question is whether it will be after Jun 2015 or can it be Oct-Dec 2014. I really do not know. But if you insist I would admit there is a 50% possibility that EB3I dates might move during Q1 itself to take advantage of the full year quota. See.. this prediction and all works at a macro level. But when it comes to micro level - there are so many unknowns of how USCIS DOS operate as well as variables for individual cases that it is hard to predict at micro level. I know my answer is not what you are looking for. But I hope it helps you at least 5%.

imdeng

08-12-2014, 10:54 AM

Given the current situation, i.e EB3ROW is not C, there is no question that porting is a sensible idea unless you are only a few months away from EB3I date. However, if EB3ROW shows signs of getting close to C, then FY16 onwards, EB3I *can* get some horizontal spillover, reducing the pressure to port.

Amul,

You ask any Guru on this forum ... the answer is unequivocal. EB3I should port to EB2I. The only exception would be people who are within 6-9 month window of the date that is current today for EB3I. Everybody else ... move onto EB2I.

Ramsen

08-12-2014, 10:57 AM

Spectator

08-12-2014, 11:29 AM

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high. The next NVC report as of November 1, 2014 should give some clue about that. It should have reduced considerably from the 33k reported for EB3-P last year.

It remains to be be seen whether EB3-P can retain the same COD as EB3-ROW when the ROW date moves forward again next FY.

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 11:31 AM

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high.

Completely agree Spec. EB3P has been a puzzle for me this year and the only explanation is what you suggest above.

imdeng

08-12-2014, 11:37 AM

From 01DEC06 in Sep 2013 to 01APR2011 in Sep 2014 -> 4 Years 4 Months movement in one FY for EB3P. On one hand it is very surprising and aggressive movement - but OTOH, it is following the same trajectory as EB3ROW just a little later. I would imagine EB3ROW/M/P will move together to the EB3ROW high water mark (01OCT2012) at least - and then it might diverge depending upon how much demand materializes. EB3C it seems is seeing some "downgrade porting" demand from EB2C - so it might have a tougher path ahead compared to EB3ROW.

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high. The next NVC report as of November 1, 2014 should give some clue about that. It should have reduced considerably from the 33k reported for EB3-P last year.

It remains to be be seen whether EB3-P can retain the same COD as EB3-ROW when the ROW date moves forward again next FY.

migo79

08-12-2014, 11:39 AM

as most of the folks suggested, there was low expectations of any movement to EB3ROW, even the expectations if that happened it would've been just 2 to 3 months to prevent any Visa waste.
Well:
with final bulleting for14 released, I do expect(hoping) that there are no waste in this category :)

next month will be a new story with fresh Visa quota, the inventory is showing ~11000 which mean Q1 quota which i understand it is close to 7100 for ROW will be used to against the backlog
so by next month dates for ROW should move at least a year or maybe even back to OCT12, by Q2 when DOS/USCIS want to build a new inventory the dates will advance at a higher new rate.

IMHO (based on PERM data) i don't expect ROW to generate ~14000 demand beyond OCT12) for the next year so the possibility to become current is quite high, if EB3 ROW reach anywhere 1 year beyond the visa bulletin release month, this will be essentially a "current" state giving the time needed for PERM and I140 approval.

EB3I will likely get a chunk this year but the amount will depend on the demand generated by ROW when they move the dates again beyond OCT12.

rajasri

08-12-2014, 11:57 AM

Rajasri,
Welcome to forum. Nov to Feb is barely 3 months. So you should definitely get it during 2015. The only question is whether it will be after Jun 2015 or can it be Oct-Dec 2014. I really do not know. But if you insist I would admit there is a 50% possibility that EB3I dates might move during Q1 itself to take advantage of the full year quota. See.. this prediction and all works at a macro level. But when it comes to micro level - there are so many unknowns of how USCIS DOS operate as well as variables for individual cases that it is hard to predict at micro level. I know my answer is not what you are looking for. But I hope it helps you at least 5%.

Thank you qesehmk,

I am assuming that you meant Jan2015 not Jun2015.

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 12:04 PM

Thank you qesehmk,

I am assuming that you meant Jan2015 not Jun2015.

Sorry. I did mean Jun 2015. In fact I should've said July 2015. Jul-Aug-Sep i.e. Q4 of a USCIS year is when dates typically move farther. Although for EB3 that may not mean much given the lack of SOFAD for them. But in 2015 if EB3ROW becomes current then EB3I may get lucky.

rajasri

08-12-2014, 12:11 PM

Sorry. I did mean Jun 2015. In fact I should've said July 2015. Jul-Aug-Sep i.e. Q4 of a USCIS year is when dates typically move farther. Although for EB3 that may not mean much given the lack of SOFAD for them. But in 2015 if EB3ROW becomes current then EB3I may get lucky.

Thank you qesehmk.

Sorry for the dumb question, typically for EB3 India does the movement takes place in Q1 or Q4 only and not much in Q2 and Q3?

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 12:22 PM

Thank you qesehmk.

Sorry for the dumb question, typically for EB3 India does the movement takes place in Q1 or Q4 only and not much in Q2 and Q3?
This year the movement has been throughout year. Next year also I would expect the same. However - as I said if EB3I get lucky then Q4 could present some bonus.

migo79

08-12-2014, 04:17 PM

Spec:

I didn't hear your take on EB3 after the release of the inventory data.
What do you think so far? anything changes? or do you this make sense :)

my calculation seems very favorable but i would definitely like to hear your feedback.

BTW: according to your excellent PERM breakdown as of Q3, it seems that we have 19580 Approved PERM with PD OCT12 to JAN14.
so calculating the 70:30 setup it is 5874 approved EB3 PERM for ROW for this period.

that's why i was saying that i don't expect this number of approved PERMs to generate a demand that can be suffice to use EB3 ROW quota next year.

lots of things in one post i know but it is always good idea to hear your feedback :)

BTW: I calculated the number of PERMS starting JAN08 to OCT12 which is the 5 year advancement EB3ROW did in the this and previous FY and this resulted to 29231 PERM which is well within your earlier predictions of the ~56000 demand EB3ROW generated past FY and this FY.

Thanks

Spectator

08-12-2014, 04:32 PM

I think EB3-ROW will get fairly close to the number of visas available to them in FY2015.

There might be some FA to EB3-I.

YTeleven

08-12-2014, 04:48 PM

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

No need to frustration, we already predicted that this will happen.
Please see my predictions back in May : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=46298#post46298
Good days are ahead for EB3-I. You will see EB3-I CODs move past the EB2-I CODs in 2 years down the line.
Already I'm suggesting the new EB2-I filers to file it in EB3-I quota instead of EB2-I.

migo79

08-12-2014, 05:02 PM

agreed with most of the parts, but i think the amount of FA to EB3I is unpredictable in FY15, it will all depend on the demand that can be generated by these 5874 EB3ROW PERM.
FY16 the situation should be much brighter for EB3I

migo79

08-12-2014, 05:19 PM

speaking of Fall across, i was thinking of what happened if Pres. Obama issue an EO to reinterpret the existing visa law and remove derivatives from the numerical limits.
imagine what will happen, EB3I backlog will be cleared in just one year!!!
that will be candy for everyone :)

very simple solution that can help thousands of legal immigrants who love this country.

Let's hope for the best.

amulchandra

08-12-2014, 05:20 PM

No need to frustration, we already predicted that this will happen.
Please see my predictions back in May : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=46298#post46298
Good days are ahead for EB3-I. You will see EB3-I CODs move past the EB2-I CODs in 2 years down the line.
Already I'm suggesting the new EB2-I filers to file it in EB3-I quota instead of EB2-I.

Q, senram,YT,

Thank you very much for your replies. Porting is not an option for me at this point of time due various personal reasons - stable jobs for both myself and spouse,bought a home and kids studies etc... Do not want to disturb the current equilibrium.

YT, I hope your predictions come true as I do not expect that there will be any relief for legal immigrants via Executive order by Obama.

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 05:40 PM

Q, senram,YT,

Thank you very much for your replies. Porting is not an option for me at this point of time due various personal reasons - stable jobs for both myself and spouse,bought a home and kids studies etc... Do not want to disturb the current equilibrium.

YT, I hope your predictions come true as I do not expect that there will be any relief for legal immigrants via Executive order by Obama.
Amul if you haven't already filed 485 then that's understandable. But if you have an are eligible for AC21 then you may want to consider porting.

freshoftheboat?

08-12-2014, 09:20 PM

Amul if you haven't already filed 485 then that's understandable. But if you have an are eligible for AC21 then you may want to consider porting.

This thread is very interesting. I have a question and not sure who to consult so Im hoping that you guys could give me some guidance of when my priority date will become current.

My priority date is 12/12/2012 EB3 ROW. I recently got a job and my gc will be re-filed by the new company. I am wondering if it makes sense to move and restart my gc in EB3 again (company wont do EB2 ROW) or should I just stick it out with my current job and think about it next year once the GC comes through. When my GC was filed for first time it literally took over 1 year to get PERM and I-140. I don't want to miss the window for filing I-485 earlier especially when this posts seem to say that EB3 ROW dates can move forward in 1st quarter.

When do you guys feel that December 2012 will become current- first quarter or second quarter. I am truly thankful for gaining so much knowledge from you. Good job guys. For us immigrants, our jobs and travel become such a pain with visa issues.

qesehmk

08-12-2014, 10:56 PM

This thread is very interesting. I have a question and not sure who to consult so Im hoping that you guys could give me some guidance of when my priority date will become current.

My priority date is 12/12/2012 EB3 ROW. I recently got a job and my gc will be re-filed by the new company. I am wondering if it makes sense to move and restart my gc in EB3 again (company wont do EB2 ROW) or should I just stick it out with my current job and think about it next year once the GC comes through. When my GC was filed for first time it literally took over 1 year to get PERM and I-140. I don't want to miss the window for filing I-485 earlier especially when this posts seem to say that EB3 ROW dates can move forward in 1st quarter.

When do you guys feel that December 2012 will become current- first quarter or second quarter. I am truly thankful for gaining so much knowledge from you. Good job guys. For us immigrants, our jobs and travel become such a pain with visa issues.
fresh welcome to the forum. You are in for a good surprise. Since your 140 was approved, your PD is now locked. It means even if you get a new job and restart your GC, your PD will still be 12/12/12. As per when that date will be current... definitely within 1 year I guess.

migo79

08-12-2014, 11:59 PM

I guess he don't want wanna do that since he want to file I485 and get an EAD/AP and have relief :)

The dates for EB3ROW (based on current data) are expected to move beyond OCT12 probably by Q2, likely in December Bulletin he should be current unless there is a hidden backlog of I485 filers from APR11 to OCT12 which I don't expect since OCT12 remained current for two full months!

Good luck.

migo79

08-13-2014, 12:20 AM

amulchandra

08-13-2014, 08:46 AM

Here is my take on the EB3 ROWs Numbers in a one line, Spec and Gurus feel free to scrutinize it:

EB3 new demand past OCT12 PD:

19580 ROW PERM from OCT12 to JAN14 * .3 (EB3 factor) = 5874 - 587 (10% denial rate) = 5287 * 2.2(Dependents) = 11631 (new demand) + 10000 (FY14 carry over) = 21631.

So the predicted demand next year for EB3ROW is well beyond their allotted Visas, we may just need to count EB3 that doesn't go through PERM but i think this number is fairly low to affect the overall picture.

coming to EB3I should potentially benefit from any remaining Visas in FY15, thought as expected won't be very much, but still should be considered reasonable.

Hi migo,
I think what you meant is EB3 Row's demand for FY 2015 will be 'LESS' than it's allotted number( which 28,500 approximately). So EB3 should get at least 5000 to 6000 spillover. If that is true then it is some good news as 2004 is a very dense year for EB3 I and any extra numbers will definitely help.
Thanks
Amul

Spectator

08-13-2014, 09:03 AM

Hi migo,
I think what you meant is EB3 Row's demand for FY 2015 will be 'LESS' than it's allotted number( which 28,500 approximately). So EB3 should get at least 5000 to 6000 spillover. If that is true then it is some good news as 2004 is a very dense year for EB3 I and any extra numbers will definitely help.
Thanks
AmulAmul,

I'm not sure whether migo meant more or less either.

EB3-ROW never receives the full calculated allocation of 29.1k (in year where 140k are available to EB).

Both Philippines (and Mexico in the past) can use more than their calculated 7% within EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That reduces the numbers available to EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW generally suffer if EB3 does not reach its full allocation.

EB3-ROW generally has about 24k available to them.

FY ------- Act. ---- Calc.
FY2013 -- 23,822 -- 32,931
FY2012 -- 23,691 -- 30,148
FY2011 -- 20,744 -- 29,128
FY2010 -- 24,328 -- 31,323
FY2009 -- 26,295 -- 29,128

amulchandra

08-13-2014, 09:46 AM

Amul,

I'm not sure whether migo meant more or less either.

EB3-ROW never receives the full calculated allocation of 29.1k (in year where 140k are available to EB).

Both Philippines (and Mexico in the past) can use more than their calculated 7% within EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That reduces the numbers available to EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW generally suffer if EB3 does not reach its full allocation.

EB3-ROW generally has about 24k available to them.

FY ------- Act. ---- Calc.
FY2013 -- 23,822 -- 32,931
FY2012 -- 23,691 -- 30,148
FY2011 -- 20,744 -- 29,128
FY2010 -- 24,328 -- 31,323
FY2009 -- 26,295 -- 29,128

Thank you very much for all the numbers Spec.

Spectator

08-13-2014, 10:04 AM

Thank you very much for all the numbers Spec.Amul,

You're welcome.

I do see some reason for hope for EB3-I, even in FY2015.

The EB3-P COD has accelerated very rapidly, yet it does not seem to have resulted in the sort of demand from CP cases I expected. If that trend continues through later years, then EB3-P could also provide spare visas. I think it is an outside shot though, given the historically very high number of nurses wishing to emigrate from the Philippines. It's possible the apparent low numbers may be caused by processing delays at the Manila Embassy and a lack of interview slots. Alternatively, it may just be abandonment or that the original job offer from the I-140 no longer exists.

imdeng

08-13-2014, 10:41 AM

I find it reasonable that nursing job offers that were extended several years back no longer exist. There have been anecdotal evidence of a massive increase in number of nursing graduates in last decade in response to the nursing shortage. Seems like as of now there is no shortage - and hence no need to get nurses from Philippines. This report has some concrete numbers: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/nursing-shortage-in-u-s-is-over-temporarily-researchers-find.html

Amul,

You're welcome.

I do see some reason for hope for EB3-I, even in FY2015.

The EB3-P COD has accelerated very rapidly, yet it does not seem to have resulted in the sort of demand from CP cases I expected. If that trend continues through later years, then EB3-P could also provide spare visas. I think it is an outside shot though, given the historically very high number of nurses wishing to emigrate from the Philippines. It's possible the apparent low numbers may be caused by processing delays at the Manila Embassy and a lack of interview slots. Alternatively, it may just be abandonment or that the original job offer from the I-140 no longer exists.

migo79

08-13-2014, 10:59 AM

Thanks guys,

Sorry for being not clear but i meant that EB3ROW demand will be *less* than the actual supply, however the actual FA will depend on the extent of how many cases from expected 21631 cases will be finalized the by the service center.

at the end not all of them will have the Visa next year, some cases will stuck for extended reviews for example, so the amount of FA will depend on that along how many Visas available to EB3 ROW next year.

krishn

08-13-2014, 01:03 PM

EB3I , PD 27Nov2003 and PD 10Dec2003 got GC approval after rfe's earlier this year, will they have to return the cards now that the bulletin did not go that far ? :confused:

migo79

08-18-2014, 01:41 AM

Hey Gurus,

We discussed lots about numbers but we didn't discuss about the expectations of dates movements in the next bulletin, i'd like to get your thoughts about the movement in OCT bulletin:

For EB3 ROW here are the facts:

* it is unlikely that any date moved by DOS within OCT12 generate any new demand to USCIS.

*not all pending applicant of the 11170 would immediately get a GC due to extended processing, i'm not sure though about how many pre-aduicated cases already in hand with USCIS.

*USCIS takes ~4,6 months to process an application to pre-adjudication.

Let's assume out of 11,170 there are 70% (rough number out of blue of my mind), Pre-Adjudicated applicants, this will be 7819 applicants. which should be suffice for the Q1 visas.

but again if dates doesn't move beyond OCT12 there will be no new demands and EB3ROW by January will have very small demand per month again due to processing time by USCIS.

so if DOS moved the dates post OCT12 in December for example, it will be least by April where DOS should see real demand generated by the move.

based on the numbers in I485, i would assume it should be moved at least one year to APR12 or back to where it was OCT12 in OCT bulletin.
They may then move 0/ 6 month in November if they are conservatives.

but then December would be so late to move dates post OCT12 and almost very little visas would be used in Q2.

from your experience with CO strategy what do you think your dates would move for EB3 ROW?

imdeng

08-18-2014, 02:30 PM

migo - pure conjecture - if I had been in CO's shoes, I will push EB3ROW to 01OCT2012 in the next bulletin, keep it there for Nov/Dec so that much of the inventory is depleted, start building inventory - say - 01OCT2013 in Jan VB - keep it there for Mar and Apr. 01OCT2014 in May VB - keep it there for Jun and July. Finally - if the numbers support - then C for Aug/Sep/Oct - and going forward.

This is of course assuming that the demand density for EB3ROW continues to be low enough to justify the movement.

freshoftheboat?

08-18-2014, 08:10 PM

Hello- this 11,170 applicants for eb3 row- does this no include dependents as well?

migo79

08-19-2014, 12:16 AM

yes the 11170 is including the dependents as well,

back to the question, Imdeng:
That strategy will still leave a gap of about 3 months of slow demand for EB3ROW, USCIS will not be able approve the cases fast enough to generate real demand seen by DOS?

if he moved the dates in OCT beyond OCT12 PD this will ensure at least entering Q2 there will be real demand to work upon.
nevertheless i don't think that they may do this bold move :) and instead may be conservative, not sure however why they may not be that bold at beginning of FY with Visas still in hand and they have the power to retrogress at any given time :)

glennphil

08-23-2014, 02:06 AM

Hi my PD 09/23/11 EB3 PHIL , is there a possibility that this will be current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

imdeng

08-23-2014, 08:43 AM

Waters are a little murky for EB3P. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has just vanished or will it materialize as CP cases get processed in Manila. Given the recent movement, I would imagine that EB3P would stall for at least a couple months to see if the demand materializes. I expect it will, even if at a reduced rate, and EB3P will lag EB3ROW/M. So, IMHO, getting current on Oct bulletin is tough. However, depending upon how much demand shows up, getting current in FY15 should be a distinct likelihood.

Hi my PD 09/23/11 EB3 PHIL , is there a possibility that this will be current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

glennphil

08-23-2014, 01:40 PM

Waters are a little murky for EB3P. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has just vanished or will it materialize as CP cases get processed in Manila. Given the recent movement, I would imagine that EB3P would stall for at least a couple months to see if the demand materializes. I expect it will, even if at a reduced rate, and EB3P will lag EB3ROW/M. So, IMHO, getting current on Oct bulletin is tough. However, depending upon how much demand shows up, getting current in FY15 should be a distinct likelihood.

So, there might be retrogression this coming Oct VB for EB3 PHIL? Is there a possibility that PD 09/23/11 will be current around FEB 2015 for EB3 PHIL? thank you for your information!

imdeng

08-23-2014, 03:28 PM

There should not be any retrogression. My personal opinion is that, similar to EB3ROW, enough demand has vanished that EB3P can hold the current date. Whether it will move forward substantially can be answered with more confidence once the next inventory gets released. I personally think that your date should be current some time in FY2015 - can not say with any confidence regarding Feb 2015 in the absence of any more data.

My expectation is that by the end of FY2015, EB3ROW/M/C would be C, EB3P would be an year or so behind EB3ROW - and EB3I will start getting spillover from EB3ROW.

So, there might be retrogression this coming Oct VB for EB3 PHIL? Is there a possibility that PD 09/23/11 will be current around FEB 2015 for EB3 PHIL? thank you for your information!

Spectator

08-24-2014, 02:09 PM

I found this in Trackitt originally. I believe this (http://hammondlawgroup.com/healthcareblog/2014/08/21/charlie-oppenheim-offers-his-projections-for-eb-3-philippines-track-eb-3-for-the-rest-of-the-world/) is the source.

Charlie Oppenheim Offers His Projections For EB-3 Philippines – Track EB-3 For the Rest of the World

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) DOS Liaison Committee has begun a series designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and projections. Immediately following publication of each month’s Visa Bulletin, AILA will “check-in” with Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories. Mr. Oppenheim is responsible for setting the cut-off date for immigrant visa priority date movement each month.

For the month of September, 2014, Mr. Oppenheim offered the following comments regarding EB-3 Philippines:

Q: The EB-3 category for the Philippines has been catching up to the rest of the world rapidly. Can you share your predictions regarding the cut-off date for the end of this FY and into FY2015?

A: The September 2014 Visa Bulletin shows EB-3 Philippines consistent with the worldwide EB-3 cutoff date of April 21, 2011. There are two reasons for this. First, in earlier years, there was greater usage of visa numbers for EB-1 and EB-2 Philippines. Since that usage has decreased, there is greater fall-down of numbers to EB-3 Philippines. Second, there are fewer EB-3 Philippines beneficiaries who are coming forth as documentarily qualified.

When there is a greater availability of numbers relative to the demand, it accelerates the cut-off date movement to tap into beneficiaries who can use the visa numbers since the goal is to maximize number use within the applicable annual limit.

In terms of projections for next year, corrective action might be required if EB-1 and EB-2 usage were to increase or if demand for EB-3 numbers increases. Before that would happen, EB-3 Philippines would be held for a period of several months see if number use averages out to an acceptable level. If it became apparent that demand was not subsiding or was continuing to increase, it would be necessary to retrogress the date to hold number use within the annual limit.

At this point, my prediction is that EB-3 Philippines will probably tag along at the worldwide EB-3 cutoff date for the next several months.

Outside of the quote, I would say that makes sense as far as FY2014 is concerned. I can't talk of EB1-P, but EB2-P was expected to have lower use in FY2014 due to the PERM slowdown. Since that has now been reversed (and that is likely to be seen for FY2015 approvals), somewhat higher EB2-P use would be expected in FY2015. This would be similar to low EB2-P use in FY2012 (due to early retrogression of EB2) allowing high EB3-P use and then high EB2-P use (due to the delayed cases from FY2012) in FY2013 reduced the numbers available to EB3-P that year.

migo79

08-26-2014, 06:07 PM

Spectator

08-26-2014, 08:05 PM

i'm starting to see some guys post approvals for EB3ROW in trackitt, i'm not sure however how much is left for this FY probably 1000, 2000?
i'm glad seeing them approve EB3ROW again after some stallments, hopefully they don't wast much visas this year :)I think, as with EB3-I, it's making final adjustments to the total number approved.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more approvals on Trackitt, but I don't think many visas are left for EB3-ROW. I would be surprised if it is as many as 1k.

freshoftheboat?

09-01-2014, 03:29 PM

Spectator

09-01-2014, 04:36 PM

I am very curious to know what will happen to EB3 ROW dates in next visa bulletin. Another 7-10 days more left. Just hoping that it gets back to Oct-12 so that it can move further in nov-dec bulletin.

Priority date is dec-12... Btw this forum is excellent.

Anything new - anyone?I suspect, similar to how he did it for EB2-ROW at the beginning of FY2013, CO might move the EB3-ROW dates back to 01OCT12 over a 2-3 month period to spread the workload for USCIS.

CO probably doesn't have enough visa numbers to cover the (now) preadjudicated cases in a single month anyway. Theoretically, CO will only have about 13k visas (9% of EB total) available for all EB cases in October. I think EB3-ROW will have about 10k cases to fall into FY2015. CO will likely use several thousand visas for EB2-I cases in October, which may limit the movement possible for EB3-ROW.

I could be completely wrong.

migo79

09-02-2014, 02:11 PM

Spectator

09-02-2014, 02:54 PM

Spec:

what puzzle me is how what he is going to do with Q2,
if he didn't move the dates post OCT12 soon enough, USCIS won't be able to request visa numbers on time, it takes minimal 4 to 6 months

so if he finish Q1 visas the inventory will be virtually depleted and hence there will be no time to build new inventory to use Q2 visas
i know Visas won't be wasted at this point but this will be like a gap or 3 to 4 months with very low demand.migo,

Sometimes it is not possible to keep a constant flow.

It's a potential consequence of having moved the Cut Off Dates far further than necessary previously and the timing of when those cases turned into demand. We know that equation was not handled particularly well. There wasn't enough demand generated for FY2013 - that was shifted to FY2014, causing EB3-ROW to reach the numerical limits fairly early and causing retrogression.

Demand from other Categories in Q1 FY2015 will ultimately decide how many visas CO has available for EB3-ROW and when the dates can move. He can, by law, only use a maximum of 27% of the EB total allocation in Q1 (a min of 37.8k).

Ultimately, as long as the dates have moved sufficiently (which probably means Current) no later than April 2015, then that leaves the 6 months required to adjudicate them within FY2015. I don't expect people will have to wait as long as April for the movement.

migo79

09-02-2014, 03:10 PM

Spec:
If i read that correctly then he must make EB3ROW 'Current' max at the beginning of Q3 to make sure that there are no visa wasted.

amulchandra

09-09-2014, 11:19 AM

Spec:
If i read that correctly then he must make EB3ROW 'Current' max at the beginning of Q3 to make sure that there are no visa wasted.

What does the visa bulletin mean for EB3 ROW and future SO to EB3 India. Since EB3 ROW moved by 6 months can we assume that USCIS approved all the approvable cases for EB3 Row and thus reduced the carryover for FY 2015. I am trying to see if EB3 I can receive any SO in FY 2015.

Thanks
Amul

migo79

09-09-2014, 12:39 PM

Well I guess it is very early if we can speculate about horizontal SO :)

The 6 months movement of EB3 ROW are within my expectations , i expected if CO is conservative he would move the dates by 6 months.
He is only adding 866 new visas from APR11 to OCT11 + any pending cases previously.

I think Spec point is correct that he might not want to overload USCIS with EB3ROW and hence he is getting it slowly so that USCIS better manage the EB2I load.

from NOV when EB2I retrogress i think he will start moving EB3 ROW aggressively again.

our predictions howverer hasn't changed, i expect some SO this year, we would be in better position to accurately predict that when the dates move post OCT12, maybe we will have a glimpse when JAN inventory gets released depending on how far date will move post OCT12.

What does the visa bulletin mean for EB3 ROW and future SO to EB3 India. Since EB3 ROW moved by 6 months can we assume that USCIS approved all the approvable cases for EB3 Row and thus reduced the carryover for FY 2015. I am trying to see if EB3 I can receive any SO in FY 2015.

Thanks
Amul

imdeng

09-09-2014, 01:57 PM

6 month at a time is not a bad idea. It keeps some little bit of FIFO alive. Next inventory will be an interesting one to see.

migo79

09-09-2014, 02:24 PM

That's right i guess

if he kept moving in 6 months increment he might reach the higher mark at the correct time (first month of Q3)

6 month at a time is not a bad idea. It keeps some little bit of FIFO alive. Next inventory will be an interesting one to see.

freshoftheboat?

09-09-2014, 05:41 PM

Hey migo and everyone- thanks for the insight. What do u think will happen in next months bulletin. 6 months movement again? My priority date is dec 12 eb3 row and I'm wondering if i should get my medical done in next 1-2 months. It is valid for 12 Months right?

I'm curious to know if I can become current by dec- jan timeframe or if I'm expecting too much.

Let me know ur thoughts

imdeng

09-09-2014, 08:08 PM

Doing medicals take just a few days - so figure out a good facility, get your documentation in order - but no need to get them done until your dates are clear. They are indeed valid for a year.

Hey migo and everyone- thanks for the insight. What do u think will happen in next months bulletin. 6 months movement again? My priority date is dec 12 eb3 row and I'm wondering if i should get my medical done in next 1-2 months. It is valid for 12 Months right?

I'm curious to know if I can become current by dec- jan timeframe or if I'm expecting too much.

Let me know ur thoughts

migo79

09-09-2014, 08:11 PM

Hi freshfromtheboat,

I think NOV bulletin for EB3ROW can move anywhere between 6 months to 1 year.
By Jan15 max I believe your PD will become current your expectation is very reasonable :-)

I guess CO has to move the dates post OCT12 max by DEC to build new demand but this is again up to CO strategy.

He can just move the dates on 6 months increment or can move dates in a year and then slow down for a month.

We can definitely do some predictions on the demand and supply but the visa movement is CO strategy to decide upon :-)

we might get a glimpse of what is going to do starting later in the month during the AILA call.

migo79

09-09-2014, 08:17 PM

and the thing with the medical is that it is better to leave it until the very last moment, this is not because of date movement rather than you don't know when they will adjudicate your case after filing so you want to make sure that your medical is valid for the longer period possible.

like imdeng said, prepare everything and when the dates moved you will have around 3 weeks before applying so you will have plenty of time to get everything done :-)

freshoftheboat?

09-10-2014, 06:42 PM

Thanks guys. Ya it will be great to know what u guys think when we get to know what CO is thinking.

krishn

09-12-2014, 10:25 AM

09/11/2014: Good News for EB-3 Filipinos

According to the AILA, the demands for EB-3 visa numbers have been very low and may remain so, and its EB-3 cut date is likely to stay with the worldwide cut-off date.

can we assume that EB3Row may move at a much faster rate in next 3 - 5 months for inventory build up ?

ninefalcon

09-12-2014, 11:06 AM

can we assume that EB3Row may move at a much faster rate in next 3 - 5 months for inventory build up ?

That seems to be the general consensus, right? 6 months perhaps.
Meanwhile, my EAD/AP has been pending for close to 130 days now; congressman's enquiry elicited the following response:
case has been with officer for the last 2 weeks; wait for 2-3 weeks more. Nebraska.
Unbelievable!!

imdeng

09-12-2014, 07:20 PM

Welcome to the forum ninefalcon. 6 months at a time for EB3ROW/M/P seems to be the general idea. EB3C will lag a little and EB3I is well...

Wow - 130 days for EAD/AP is nuts! There is supposed to be a 90 day limit. Have you done all the usual followups - SRs, InfoPass etc.

That seems to be the general consensus, right? 6 months perhaps.
Meanwhile, my EAD/AP has been pending for close to 130 days now; congressman's enquiry elicited the following response:
case has been with officer for the last 2 weeks; wait for 2-3 weeks more. Nebraska.
Unbelievable!!

ninefalcon

09-12-2014, 10:29 PM

Welcome to the forum ninefalcon. 6 months at a time for EB3ROW/M/P seems to be the general idea. EB3C will lag a little and EB3I is well...

Wow - 130 days for EAD/AP is nuts! There is supposed to be a 90 day limit. Have you done all the usual followups - SRs, InfoPass etc.

Thanks imdeng!

Yes, I have raised 2 SRs so far; didn't hear anything back about the first one; the second one was raised last week.
Haven't tried infopass yet, just directly went to congressman. This sort of delay in EAD/AP is truly unusual, I suppose!

freshoftheboat?

09-14-2014, 09:47 PM

Hello- I read the mygcvisa blog and they do a very good job. Just saw their latest prediction which states that eb3 row is expected to move 4+ months in next visa Bulletin. I'm wondering if they r accurate. Last time around they predicted movement of 2-4 months only when the oct movement was 6 months. I wonder how they do their calculation becuase seems like they r being conservative with that they are stating. Any comments?

freshoftheboat?

09-14-2014, 09:49 PM

Also their calculator states that my priority date of
Dec 12 eb3 row is expected to be current in sept 16. Wonder why

migo79

09-14-2014, 11:05 PM

Hi

The predictions remain predictions, i think only CO would have a definitive answer because he has choose various strategy, but i guess next movement would be from 6 month to 1 year for EB3 ROW. again depend on what CO going to do.

eventually the dates for EB3ROW would be pushed past OCT12 on DEC/JAN visa bulletin.

imdeng

09-15-2014, 08:40 AM

They don't have any special insights. They are guessing just as rest of us are. I would bet that the median of the guesses in this forum will turn out to be better than their guess.

In any event, you will be current within FY15, probably in next few months. So just hold on and enjoy the ride. Sept 2016 is way too pessimistic for you.

Also their calculator states that my priority date of
Dec 12 eb3 row is expected to be current in sept 16. Wonder why

migo79

09-15-2014, 10:55 AM

I would say too unrealistic instead of too Pessimistic :)

They don't have any special insights. They are guessing just as rest of us are. I would bet that the median of the guesses in this forum will turn out to be better than their guess.

In any event, you will be current within FY15, probably in next few months. So just hold on and enjoy the ride. Sept 2016 is way too pessimistic for you.

freshoftheboat?

09-15-2014, 02:41 PM

Thank you guys! I think I've driven you guys insane with my questions...so I am just going to sit tight and not think too much about it.

I am just a little worried as my company laid off so many people including engineers from my team in the last few months that's its been total insanity and very unpredictable at work. I've been trying to get out but 80% (trust me I've calculated it in excel sheet) of companies end up saying no because they will need to sponsor H1B and GC and its costs them money, and time and most mid-small sizes companies don't have a clue.

It would be nice to get onto my spouses EAD so at least I don't have to pursue the company to do all H1b/GC.

I had gotten my I-140 approved with priority date 03/13 but promotion happened causing major change in description of job that the company had to restart my PERM again just recently...so for me to get GC based on my application will take forever as PERM is taking 6 months.

Weird dilemma.

Thanks for the motivation and positive postings. Are most of you GC holders via EB3 row?

migo79

09-16-2014, 02:39 AM

That's a kind of situation that is unpredictable :)
all i say is best of luck, your PD is within reach very few months from now, but you have to wait until you get your PERM approved and I140 approved, this process typically takes a year long.

best of luck again :-)

GC2k13

09-16-2014, 08:36 AM

Hello Gurus, I am new the forum. Just wnted to get some predictions on what you think on how the next few months would process for EB3 rest of the world.
my pd is july 19,2013 i know its only been a year i have my i-40 approved and waiting to file 485 . I have my h1b valid for anther 2 years and wanted to travel sometime next year..but ill need stamping wasnt sure if its worth the wait or shalli take the risk and go for restamping.

thank you much.

qesehmk

09-16-2014, 11:24 AM

GC2k13 welcome to forum. If your company is fortune 1000 and the job is well paying - I wouldn't worry about stamping and travel. If you are jittery about stamping it in your home country - you can stamp in ANY other country including canada and mexico.

I do think that for EB3ROW the dates should reach 2013 within one year. Whether it will happen in 3 months - 6 months or 9 months - I can't say. I can definitely say though that EB3ROW should now move pretty soon. I was surprised why it didn't move in Oct bulletin. I am confident it will move in next 2 months.

Hello Gurus, I am new the forum. Just wnted to get some predictions on what you think on how the next few months would process for EB3 rest of the world.
my pd is july 19,2013 i know its only been a year i have my i-40 approved and waiting to file 485 . I have my h1b valid for anther 2 years and wanted to travel sometime next year..but ill need stamping wasnt sure if its worth the wait or shalli take the risk and go for restamping.

thank you much.

migo79

09-16-2014, 11:28 AM

Q:
you mean you surprised why it didn't move post OCT12 in OCT bulletin?
Because it moved 6 month which is quite low end expectation :-)

qesehmk

09-16-2014, 11:40 AM

Q:
you mean you surprised why it didn't move post OCT12 in OCT bulletin?
Because it moved 6 month which is quite low end expectation :-)
Yes I meant it should've bounced back to Oct 12 in this Oct bulletin. I am sure it will bounce to that level and more. At the least it should come to Oct 12 in 6 months max.

Spectator

09-16-2014, 12:15 PM

Yes I meant it should've bounced back to Oct 12 in this Oct bulletin. I am sure it will bounce to that level and more. At the least it should come to Oct 12 in 6 months max.Q,

As I speculated in a previous post, the movement seemed quite as expected.

There is a backlog of 10-11k cases for EB3-ROW due to the retrogression of dates earlier in the year. There aren't enough visas available to cover that demand and move the COD back to Oct 12 in a single month.

It's very similar to the way CO brought EB2-ROW back to Current at the beginning of FY2013 after they had retrogressed for the last quarter of FY2012.

migo79

09-16-2014, 12:36 PM

6 month is a very pessimistic guess
I guess it should reach OCT12 max by December, if it take 6 months to reach OCT12, then ROW won't be able to generate Demand that will be able to use their allocations unless he immediately makes it Current.

Yes I meant it should've bounced back to Oct 12 in this Oct bulletin. I am sure it will bounce to that level and more. At the least it should come to Oct 12 in 6 months max.

qesehmk

09-16-2014, 01:15 PM

10-11K is a very normal demand for a category that is current e.g. EB1. That's why I thought that is not sufficient to move only by six months unless CO keeps moving 6 monts every 3 months. That would make sense.
Q,

As I speculated in a previous post, the movement seemed quite as expected.

There is a backlog of 10-11k cases for EB3-ROW due to the retrogression of dates earlier in the year. There aren't enough visas available to cover that demand and move the COD back to Oct 12 in a single month.

It's very similar to the way CO brought EB2-ROW back to Current at the beginning of FY2013 after they had retrogressed for the last quarter of FY2012.

6 month is a very pessimistic guess
I guess it should reach OCT12 max by December, if it take 6 months to reach OCT12, then ROW won't be able to generate Demand that will be able to use their allocations unless he immediately makes it Current.
CO can do whatever he likes. I am just saying he can't delay it beyond 6 months. But see ... I am a bit sympathetic to CO on ROW because in ROW there could be a large hidden CP demand esp on China side. So perhaps he is being caution. If you just go by 485 numbers then I think the dates should've been at Oct 12 right now. But the fact they are not means CO is thinking of CP demand and being cautious about it.

Spectator

09-16-2014, 02:11 PM

10-11K is a very normal demand for a category that is current e.g. EB1. That's why I thought that is not sufficient to move only by six months unless CO keeps moving 6 months every 3 months. That would make sense. I'd have to disagree. Having 10-11k preadjudicated cases going into a month would not be normal for a Category that was Current.

When the DD was published, other than when they were retrogressed, EB2-ROW never had a pending demand of more than a few hundred.

The highest number reached was 4.9k in the October 2012 DD. CO took 2 months to bring EB2-ROW back to Current from 01JAN09.

In terms of demand through a month for a whole Category, then it can't average more than about 3.5k / month (rather less for ROW only).

On that basis, I would say that demand that DOS can see of 10-11k is rather more than normal for a month.

GC2k13

09-17-2014, 08:51 AM

GC2k13 welcome to forum. If your company is fortune 1000 and the job is well paying - I wouldn't worry about stamping and travel. If you are jittery about stamping it in your home country - you can stamp in ANY other country including canada and mexico.

I do think that for EB3ROW the dates should reach 2013 within one year. Whether it will happen in 3 months - 6 months or 9 months - I can't say. I can definitely say though that EB3ROW should now move pretty soon. I was surprised why it didn't move in Oct bulletin. I am confident it will move in next 2 months.

Thanks for your input qesehmk, that gives me some confidence i was expecting with the recent movement within the next 6months or so;the reason i am a down on confidence for stamping is i recently had to file nunc - pron tunce to fix my status as my i94 had expired with my passport and i didnt realize.. it still concerns me if i travel outside if it could become an issue . am i being too worried? thoughts?

qesehmk

09-17-2014, 09:38 AM

I am not qualified to talk about such a thing. Perhaps Kanmani Spec or others may have some thoughts.
Thanks for your input qesehmk, that gives me some confidence i was expecting with the recent movement within the next 6months or so;the reason i am a down on confidence for stamping is i recently had to file nunc - pron tunce to fix my status as my i94 had expired with my passport and i didnt realize.. it still concerns me if i travel outside if it could become an issue . am i being too worried? thoughts?

Kanmani

09-17-2014, 11:13 AM

Thanks for your input qesehmk, that gives me some confidence i was expecting with the recent movement within the next 6months or so;the reason i am a down on confidence for stamping is i recently had to file nunc - pron tunce to fix my status as my i94 had expired with my passport and i didnt realize.. it still concerns me if i travel outside if it could become an issue . am i being too worried? thoughts?

When you get an H1b extension approval from the USCIS, you have nothing to worry. You could have even corrected your I-94 validity at CBP to match that of with H1B approval notice. ( I assumed you have a H1b approval to a later date but I-94 expired sooner than the H1b)

GC2k13

09-17-2014, 11:31 AM

When you get an H1b extension approval from the USCIS, you have nothing to worry. You could have even corrected your I-94 validity at CBP to match that of with H1B approval notice. ( I assumed you have a H1b approval to a later date but I-94 expired sooner than the H1b)

yea H1b was a valid until a year later then my i94/passport expiry date. I do have the approval now and i am glad i was able to take care of it! went thru a nevry period while the process was still going on. .
appreciate yours and qesehmks input !

Kanmani

09-17-2014, 12:14 PM

yea H1b was a valid until a year later then my i94/passport expiry date. I do have the approval now and i am glad i was able to take care of it! went thru a nevry period while the process was still going on. .
appreciate yours and qesehmks input !

Glad you got approved.

I said you could have extended your I-94 card at the International Airport you arrived by presenting your H1b approval copy at their office. Nunc-pro-tunc is the second option. You have passed that stage. But this is just for your information in the event of anything in future.

GC2k13

09-17-2014, 02:50 PM

Glad you got approved.

I said you could have extended your I-94 card at the International Airport you arrived by presenting your H1b approval copy at their office. Nunc-pro-tunc is the second option. You have passed that stage. But this is just for your information in the event of anything in future.

ya i did try that..they were not willing to help and as a last resort i had to file nun pro-tunc. i am glad its over

Spectator

09-26-2014, 08:09 PM

I thought this might be interesting to some, especially those who are undergoing CP. I suspect the ones mainly affected would be EB3-P, but not them alone.

http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8248-DELAYS-AT-THE-NVC

DELAYS AT THE NVC
by
CMusillo
, 09-22-2014 at 10:53 AM (Chris Musillo on Nurse and Allied Health Immigration)

by Chris Musillo

The progression of priority dates in the recent few months has been exciting news for many, especially those EB-3 applicants who have been patiently waiting for their green cards for many years.

Unfortunately the unexpected progression has swamped the National Visa Center. The NVC is now issuing letters indicating that NVC cases will be delayed for 60 days. Here is an excerpt from a stock form letter that our office has received in the last few days. We have received about a dozen of these letters.

We are currently receiving an increased number of approved petitions from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. As a result, we are experiencing increased review times for documents received.

We expect it will be at least 60 days from the date we received your mail before we complete the review of your documents. We will notify you when we review your documents.

We are working to reduce these processing times and we appreciate your patience.

freshoftheboat?

10-03-2014, 01:15 PM

Within one week we shall have the November visa bulletin. Curious to see how much EB3 ROW will move by... Hopefully 6months to 1 year

YTeleven

10-03-2014, 03:41 PM

Within one week we shall have the November visa bulletin. Curious to see how much EB3 ROW will move by... Hopefully 6months to 1 year

CO need to act fast this year in moving EB3-ROW dates rapidly forward. There is NOT much demand in the pipeline for EB3-ROW.
If he wants to be in comfortable situation in Q4, he has to make EB3-ROW current ASAP. He was not acted fast in FY13 which resulted in 5k+ horizontal spillover to EB3-India from EB3-ROW in FY13Q4.
In either case I'm expecting EB3-India will get atleast 5k horizontal spilover from EB3-ROW this year too in FY15Q4. Let us see how it goes.
Here is link to : Current EB3-ROW and EB3-I 485 inventory trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?usp=sharing)

Spectator

10-03-2014, 03:58 PM

CO need to act fast this year in moving EB3-ROW dates rapidly forward. There is NOT much demand in the pipeline for EB3-ROW.
If he wants to be in comfortable situation in Q4, he has to make EB3-ROW current ASAP. He was not acted fast in FY13 which resulted in 5k+ horizontal spillover to EB3-India from EB3-ROW in FY13Q4.
In either case I'm expecting EB3-India will get atleast 5k horizontal spilover from EB3-ROW this year too in FY15Q4. Let us see how it goes.
Here is link to : Current EB3-ROW and EB3-I 485 inventory trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?usp=sharing)I agree about the need to move EB3-WW towards Current as quickly as possible, but he has to balance the wish to do that with the number of preadjudicated cases he can already see as demand. That might be 10-11k and he has to have sufficient visa numbers to approve most of those before he can move rapidly past 01OCT12.

It might have to wait as late as January 2015 to move beyond the latest date that EB3-WW reached, given there is competing pressure on visa numbers in Q1 from other Categories and Countries, notably from EB2-I.

I also expect (on the current trends) EB3-I to receive some FA in FY2015 and a much greater amount in FY2016. I think EB3-P numbers will determine the extent.

If and when EB3-I moves beyond EB2-I COD (possibly as early as FY2017 in your scenario) then we will undoubtedly see greater EB3-I applications and reverse porting from EB2-I as was seen with China.

migo79

10-04-2014, 01:14 AM

The latest CO has to act to make EB3ROW current is by March 2015, this will give time for new EB3ROW applicant to get adjudicated.
If he keep moving by 6 months this mean that by Q2 there will be virtually no noticeable demand of maybe 100/200 Visas per month from EB3ROW and rest of the Quarter visa will fall to Q3.

Anyway I guess it is a good year for both EB3ROW and EB3I, and the year next appear to be bright too if the same trend continue.

migo79

10-04-2014, 01:42 AM

have you guys read this one:
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/10/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-eb-3-row-and-china-to-advance-october-1-2014/

EB-2 India will retrogress significantly in the November or December 2014 Visa Bulletin — going back to early 2005. EB-3 India will move very slowly in the near term but EB-3 ROW and China are expected to move forward significantly

This indicates our predictions in this forum is correct and CO is reading the same from the current data.

YTeleven

10-08-2014, 04:32 PM

This LINK (http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2014/10/07/immigration-expert-children-are-being-turned-back-without-due-process/) has the answer why the recent EB3-P rapid movement.

imdeng

10-09-2014, 11:39 AM

gcq

10-09-2014, 01:08 PM

It is truly shocking that after so many years of movement in just a few months, EB3P is still running with EB3ROW. If any demand had to come from 5+ years of movement, it would surely have shown up by now and would have cause EB3P to lag EB3ROW (like EB3C) - but that is not the case in today's VB. There is demand destruction - and there is massive demand destruction. Current signs point towards massive.

Spare a thought for thousands of folks who went through the process, did all the paperwork, likely spend a lot of money to get in the line. They waited for 7 years for their date to be current - and when it does there is no demand for them here. How awful!

I assume a good amount of these EB3P is nurses. They might have changed their plans of of coming to US. My sister in law is in EB3-I line as a nurse with a PD sometime in 2005. She and her family has changed their plans and is looking forward to settling back in India after working many years in Kuwait. For them it doesn't make sense to put life on hold for a GC. Moreover they have to keep updating their RN status etc.

krishn

10-09-2014, 01:21 PM

looked like EB3 Row will become current or atleast move to oct12. :confused:

CO moved EB3P and EB3ROW to 01jun12 , on what basis ?

dont see the demand data document (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/immigrant-visas.html)
or updated inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory).

when will we know FY14 visa usage for EB and FB? will there be any FB spillover to EB in FY15 ?

migo79

10-09-2014, 01:39 PM

it's a pretty good year for EB3ROW and to some extent EB3I later in the year

EB3ROW is just 18 Months from being technically 'current'

amulchandra

10-09-2014, 02:30 PM

it's a pretty good year for EB3ROW and to some extent EB3I later in the year

EB3ROW is just 18 Months from being technically 'current'

To all Great Gurus here,

I know I asked this question a number of times here before and I am asking again.
Any guess how much SO EB3 I might receive by the end of FY 2015. I know that it is too early to predict but couldn't stop myself from asking this question. I am waiting in line for 8 years. So my patience is wearing thin with kid close to getting into college. Can I assume the end is nearing for PD July 2006 EB3 I.

Thanks a lot in advance

Amul

Spectator

10-09-2014, 02:31 PM

It is truly shocking that after so many years of movement in just a few months, EB3P is still running with EB3ROW. If any demand had to come from 5+ years of movement, it would surely have shown up by now and would have cause EB3P to lag EB3ROW (like EB3C) - but that is not the case in today's VB. There is demand destruction - and there is massive demand destruction. Current signs point towards massive.

Spare a thought for thousands of folks who went through the process, did all the paperwork, likely spend a lot of money to get in the line. They waited for 7 years for their date to be current - and when it does there is no demand for them here. How awful!imdeng,

That's what happens when there is a whole class of skilled worker (RN & PT) with no corresponding non-immigrant visa available to them (the 500 H1C visa available per year don't count for anything).

Immigration is the only route and they can't work in the USA until that happens.

They therefore have to rely on a job offer that has been 6-7 years old by the time the PD becomes current. In the real world, that is not going to happen and there is massive demand destruction.

I don't think the demand or will to immigrate to the USA from the Philippines has diminished, so it is likely the numbers will increase again.

As the COD advances nearer to Current for EB3-P, the wait time will be dramatically lower and the chances of the job offer surviving the wait will be correspondingly greater.

At that point, the EB3-P numbers will increase again IMO.

qesehmk

10-09-2014, 02:53 PM

I don't think the demand or will to immigrate to the USA from the Philippines has diminished, so it is likely the numbers will increase again.

There are a couple of things that are happening here.
a) because of higher pay - a lot of Americans are becoming nurses now.
b) because of high cost of a nurse - the hospitals are moving to innovative solutions. e.g. hospitals are already using tele-monitoring to allow the same nurse to monitor more number of patients.
So although not immediately - it is possible that hospitals will be willing to hire less and less nurses from abroad.

p.s. - There is one factor that will though work in favor of nurses - and that is the aging population and resulting need for more number of nurses.

migo79

10-09-2014, 07:33 PM

to Amul:

Yes it is still early to know the specifics, it will depend on number of factors:
1-how many visas are available for EB3 this year
2-how many demand EB3ROW will generate

i'm estimating the EB3ROW demand for this year to be ~22000, from that definitely not all of that will get approve this year so the demand could be less than that.

so you are looking anywhere from 2000 to 5000 SO this year if i take a blind shot on this.

imdeng

10-09-2014, 09:23 PM

imdeng

10-09-2014, 09:30 PM

Yup - How crazy is this! Considering that the pace picked up this VB, I guess dates will cross Oct'12 in the next VB. Then say 4 months at a time - and voilà - by summer 2015 EB3ROW is current.

it's a pretty good year for EB3ROW and to some extent EB3I later in the year

EB3ROW is just 18 Months from being technically 'current'

amulchandra

10-09-2014, 10:14 PM

Spectator

10-09-2014, 11:26 PM

Spec/Q - Based on my cursory reading, it seems about 10 years back there was a severe nursing shortage. In response, nursing schools ramped up enrollments and there is hardly any shortage at the moment. The current demand supply situation is expected to stay stable for at least a few years - so I wouldn't expect EB3P to pick up too much.

Long term forecasts though predict another nursing shortage just on the horizon because of Obamacare (mainly because of Medicaid expansion) and general aging of the population. Although I feel that nursing schools are going on be on top of that game this time after falling behind last time.There have been some excellent reasons put forward (by both Q and yourself) as to why the EB3-P demand will remain relatively low.

Even I am not saying it will be an instant increase.

Despite that, for several reasons, I do believe the numbers will rise again. I am suggesting it will be a lull, rather than a permanent situation. Here's a few off the top of my head:

RN and PT are still listed under Schedule A for occupations that have a shortage. I concede that may be due to government sloth, but the rising wages suggests that an equilibrium between demand and supply has not been reached.

Schedule A occupations require no PERM and no test as to whether there are sufficient American workers willing and able to take up the position. American workers may not be willing to take up the positions where the greatest shortages are. Immigrants have traditionally been more flexible in that regard.

Training to be a nurse in the USA is a very expensive proposition and the expected wages probably reflect that. Recently, the parents of a nurse who died aged 27, were saddled with her $200k remaining student loans because they had cosigned for them.

There is still a significant "pull" for people to immigrate to the USA from the Philippines.

On the other hand, it is indisputable that there has been significant demand destruction post 2007 PD. As mentioned previously, this may be due to lack of a continuing job offer and simply pure attrition from having to wait so long. Life goes on and other opportunities present themselves and situations change.

We'll see, but I don't think we have seen the last of EB3-P. I admit it is "gut feel" rather than evidence based. As the "prosecution", you can make a much better case at present. :)

freshoftheboat?

10-13-2014, 10:07 AM

I am very excited that the VB moved by months. I just hope that it moves by another 8 more months in next visa bulletin so that like most people my date becomes current and we can file 485.

(1) Interms of getting AP and EAD, when does that happen and how long can that take from when you file I-485. Just looking for an average time frame. I want to change jobs so I was thinking of moving to EAD (through spouse) to look for job. My GC will take forever, coz company just refiled labor as job role changed 2 months ago, so its useless to depend on my own. It was a bad move.

(2) How long does it take to receive GC once you file 485?

I am not sure of the steps and was wondering if someone can help me figure this out

imdeng

10-13-2014, 10:09 AM

EAD/AP in 60-90 days after 485 receipt. GC in 4-6 months after 485 receipt unless there is some RFE. Numbers are ballpark.

I am very excited that the VB moved by months. I just hope that it moves by another 8 more months in next visa bulletin so that like most people my date becomes current and we can file 485.

(1) Interms of getting AP and EAD, when does that happen and how long can that take from when you file I-485. Just looking for an average time frame. I want to change jobs so I was thinking of moving to EAD (through spouse) to look for job. My GC will take forever, coz company just refiled labor as job role changed 2 months ago, so its useless to depend on my own. It was a bad move.

(2) How long does it take to receive GC once you file 485?

I am not sure of the steps and was wondering if someone can help me figure this out

freshoftheboat?

10-18-2014, 12:42 PM

I have a q regarding medical. I found a doctor however he is charging additional money for pretty much everything including tb and syphilis ($100), vaccinations ( range $50-$150)and basic charges for filling out form is $150.
I have gotten all vaccinations and titers done thru my pcp earlier this year.

(1) I am wondering if I can also get the tb, syphilis done thru my pcp and get reports from him itself. This way I can take everything to the uscis Doc so he can sign off after he does basic physical. Does that make sense or wil the doc redo tb and syphils?

(2)Also what is communal diseases a/b- titer or injection. Is that something my pcp can do as well and provide evidence? I tried to find info in many forums but can't pertaining to a/b.

My pcp is really nice and helpful and is right next door so I'd rather take all reports from him itself.

Will appreciate any help.

imdeng

10-18-2014, 07:11 PM

First of all - you should shop around. Usually the basic fee for Civil Surgeon includes the physical, TB and Syphilis. You can get the rest of the immunization from anywhere you wish including your PCP. If your PCP is willing to do TB/Syphilis then you can get them from him/her too. The Civil Surgeon will accept the test results from your PCP.

The typical cost is $200+Any Immunizations a-la-carte in my side of the world.

I have a q regarding medical. I found a doctor however he is charging additional money for pretty much everything including tb and syphilis ($100), vaccinations ( range $50-$150)and basic charges for filling out form is $150.
I have gotten all vaccinations and titers done thru my pcp earlier this year.

(1) I am wondering if I can also get the tb, syphilis done thru my pcp and get reports from him itself. This way I can take everything to the uscis Doc so he can sign off after he does basic physical. Does that make sense or wil the doc redo tb and syphils?

(2)Also what is communal diseases a/b- titer or injection. Is that something my pcp can do as well and provide evidence? I tried to find info in many forums but can't pertaining to a/b.

My pcp is really nice and helpful and is right next door so I'd rather take all reports from him itself.

Will appreciate any help.

freshoftheboat?

11-06-2014, 07:22 PM

Inventory data got released - around 10,200 applications till 3 oct 14. Seems like it is good news for a lot of us who are hanging to get our apps in

freshoftheboat?

11-06-2014, 07:23 PM

What do gurus think abt upcoming visa bulletin.. Will appreciate the input

migo79

12-09-2014, 07:53 PM

great move for EB3 ROW
now EB3 ROW is just ~6 month away from being current, good news for everyone.

mk2007

12-10-2014, 01:12 PM

Hi Migo79,
are your views on FA spillover to EB3I still tyhe same or is there any positive change as far as spill over guesstimate is concerned?
I am in the same boat as Amul...I am EB3-I March 06.

to Amul:

Yes it is still early to know the specifics, it will depend on number of factors:
1-how many visas are available for EB3 this year
2-how many demand EB3ROW will generate

i'm estimating the EB3ROW demand for this year to be ~22000, from that definitely not all of that will get approve this year so the demand could be less than that.

so you are looking anywhere from 2000 to 5000 SO this year if i take a blind shot on this.

krishn

12-11-2014, 10:37 AM

great move for EB3 ROW
Now EB3 ROW is just ~6 month away from being current, good news for everyone.

Gurus,

what is the PERM volume for eb3 row for fy13 and fy14? will there be spill over to eb3I this year ?

When is the next inventory report coming out?

Thanks

migo79

12-11-2014, 12:09 PM

Hi Krishn,
there is nothing changed in terms of either numbers or trends, they remain the same so previous numbers are still correct.

there will be a spillover this year, how many will basically depend on the approvable rate for EB3 ROW.
next inventory is JAN which releases in Feb i guess, and it should the one that give indications on how things might be going this year.

so the horizontal spillover this year should be modest to decent while in FY16 I expect a huge spillover to EB3I with possibility to clear most of the backlog.

migo79

12-11-2014, 12:11 PM

Hi Madhuri,
previous post has the answers :)

Thanks.

amulchandra

12-11-2014, 03:39 PM

I am wondering how EB3 I 's cut off date progressed to Dec 15 2003 when the number of pending applications for 2003 is 2513 which is almost an year's worth of Visa Numbers. Are the numbers in the inventory report much more than what the actual demand is?

migo79

12-12-2014, 12:26 PM

yes the inventory is much higher than actual demand
there are couple of posts about the numbers in the forum :)

skpanda

12-12-2014, 12:42 PM

wonder why they stopped publishing the demand data?

amulchandra

12-12-2014, 01:23 PM

yes the inventory is much higher than actual demand
there are couple of posts about the numbers in the forum :)

Thanks migo

gcq

12-12-2014, 02:04 PM

mk2007

12-12-2014, 03:49 PM

Thanks migo79

krishn

12-16-2014, 02:00 PM

Could it be that EB2 porters are still in the inventory ?

In EB3-I 'would think that from 2k4 onwards most of the people would have ported than what is reported in the inventory. EB3-I folks who ever did change jobs must have definitely ported. Some (2k3 , 2k4)of them might have abandoned and went back to booming career growth in home countries.

lets see, -if uscis figure out the way not to double count porters -what the uscis inventory reports in Jan -dos's demand data shows up or not :-?

krishn

01-09-2015, 02:28 PM

VB released. EB3Row - 01JAN14 moved by 6 months, eb3 china - 01SEP11 6 months , eb3i moved by 1 week only to 22DEC03.

NO demand data or uscis I485-Inventory released yet.

migo79

01-10-2015, 01:17 AM

EB3ROW now is technically current!
it will be interesting to watch next two bulletins.

krishn

01-10-2015, 09:54 PM

EB3ROW now is technically current!
it will be interesting to watch next two bulletins.

so you mean EB3 ROW 2014jan PD guys are still either in 140 stage or perm stage ?

migo79

01-12-2015, 12:26 PM

Yup,
it takes at least a year for Perm and I140(non-premium) to be approved.

so you mean EB3 ROW 2014jan PD guys are still either in 140 stage or perm stage ?

krishn

01-12-2015, 01:12 PM

Do we know how many EB3row PERM could be in FY12, FY13 and FY14. wasnt it like 10-15k yearly ?

So how much eb3row fall across to EB3I will we see this year FY15?

Thanks

migo79

01-12-2015, 03:51 PM

my previous calculations until Jan14 PD was around 21000 of total demand for EB3ROW on 2014, of course not all will be approved at the same time, so the number of approved applications should be much less than that.

I'm still convinced the number of FA this year will be modest but definitely should help.
next year will be another story where i expect a huge spillover (+10000) which will essentially bring EB3India huge relief.

the problem when this happen will be the people porting from EB2I to EB3I.

will be quite interesting!

Do we know how many EB3row PERM could be in FY12, FY13 and FY14. wasnt it like 10-15k yearly ?

So how much eb3row fall across to EB3I will we see this year FY15?

Thanks

krishn

01-12-2015, 06:09 PM

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Years : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PERM ROW : 30138 19047 15819 17258 19756 16,033 20167

EB2: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China-mainland: 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627 3,561
india: 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193 23,527
philipines: 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439 1,972
mexico: 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717 750
eb2 total: 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461 49,071
EB2 ROW Approvals: 44,934 30,093 24,427 30,161 21,778 36,485 17,247

eb2 row Perm = eb2row actual approvals / 2.2: 22467 15047 12214 15081 10889 18243 8624
eb2 row perm = discount 20% for niw etc after depedents: 17974 12038 9771 12065 8711 14594 6899
EB3 Perm guesstimate = (prior year Perm ROW - this year EB2 Approval): n/a 18100 9276 3754 8547 5162 9,134

EB3 Row 485 inventory guesstimate =2.2* eb3 perm guess: n/a 39820 20407.2 8258.8 18803.4 11356.4 20094.8

EB3 ROW 485 Inventory guesstimate = PERM ROW *0.3*2.2: 19892 12572 10441 11391 13039 10582 13311

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this is arrived at off of Spec's perm data @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations
and EB2Row approvals off of
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

so the guess is 13 to 20k EB3Row demand we may see , so are we safe to expect a 7k to 14k fall across this FY15 in EB3 to EB3I ?

migo79

01-12-2015, 11:43 PM

well, numbers speak for itself :)

krishn

01-13-2015, 07:04 PM

Spec or Guru's,

from your Perm data here @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

can one explain why there is a big difference in numbers for "CY of PD" and "FY of PD" for 2014 for ROW?

----year----- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CY of PD----- 44906 35259 30143 19055 15824 17265 19894 16033 3625
FY of Decision 41858 42430 22869 13597 30644 21173 18216 10491 20167

Thanks

imdeng

01-13-2015, 10:33 PM

I would imagine it is because the CY2014 is not fully updated, while FY2014 is (more) fully updated. Note that FY2014 end at the end of Sept 2014 while CY2014 obviously goes for 3 more months - so a FY will get updated in full earlier than a corresponding CY will.

Spec or Guru's,

from your Perm data here @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

can one explain why there is a big difference in numbers for "CY of PD" and "FY of PD" for 2014 for ROW?

----year----- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CY of PD----- 44906 35259 30143 19055 15824 17265 19894 16033 3625
FY of Decision 41858 42430 22869 13597 30644 21173 18216 10491 20167

Thanks

Spectator

01-13-2015, 10:48 PM

Spec or Guru's,

from your Perm data here @ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

can one explain why there is a big difference in numbers for "CY of PD" and "FY of PD" for 2014 for ROW?

----year-------------------------------- 2006 --- 2007 --- 2008 --- 2009 --- 2010 --- 2011 --- 2012 --- 2013 --- 2014
CY of PD (multiple FY of decision)---- 44,906 - 35,259 - 30,143 - 19,055 - 15,824 - 17,265 - 19,894 - 16,033 -- 3,625
FY of Decision (multiple CY of PD) --- 41,858 - 42,430 - 22,869 - 13,597 - 30,644 - 21,173 - 18,216 - 10,491 - 20,167

Thankskrishn,

The FY figure is not the "FY of PD". It is the FY in which the case was certified. The CY figure is the approximate PD of the case (calculated from the A number of the PERM).

The tables represent the FY (October to September) that PERM applications with Priority Date in a Calendar Year were Certified.

I've changed your row descriptions in the quote of your post to more accurately reflect what the figures represent.

The FY number is really only a measure of DOL's productivity for the FY.

In a FY where processing time become longer, then the numbers certified for the FY will be relatively low and the number of cases in the in the CY within the FY will also be low). Conversely, in a FY where processing times decrease, the number of PERMs certified will be higher. How many cases in the CY within the FY that are certified will depend on what the latest PD that DOL were processing in that FY.

So we saw 10.5k ROW certifications in FY2013 and 20.2k certifications in FY2014. In both cases, that total is made up certifications for several CY. In FY2014, the bulk of certifications had CY2013 PD (70%).

The total certifications for a CY (or PD if you prefer) will generally be seen over several FY of certifications. Depending on processing times, they may not be seen in the same CY/FY as the PD. Additionally, there will be an initial rush of regular cases, while a decreasing tail of audited and appealed cases may appear over the next 2 years or so. For CY2014 PD cases, relatively few of the eventual total had been certified by the end of FY2014. Already in FY2015, another 4,805 CY2014 cases have been certified to date. The latest date certified is around August 2014, but many from earlier in 2014 are still being certified (as well as CY2013 cases).

Taking CY2012 ROW cases certified to the end of FY2014 (based on A number) (19,894), 47% were certified in FY2012, a further 42% in FY2013 and the remainder in FY2014 (in fact, a few certifications for CY2012 are still being seen in FY2015).

An even more extreme example would be for CY2009 cases, where there were essentially no (5) certifications in FY2009.

Simplistically, the total FY certifications measures DOL productivity for that FY and CY of cases (PD) certified over several FY is a measure of the total number of cases for that PD year.

I hope that helps.

krishn

01-14-2015, 12:29 AM

Thank you so very much. I understand it now. thanks

krishn

02-09-2015, 02:43 PM

Employment- Based
All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed

CHINA - mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 01SEP10 01JAN07 C C
3rd 01JUN14 22OCT11 01JAN04 01JUN14 01JUN14

Spectator

02-09-2015, 03:52 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_1_12_2015.pdf

krishn

02-09-2015, 04:13 PM

EB3 row Inventory = 8,000

EB2 row Inventory = 17,994

Yes EB3I is in 2003 :-(

and for past several years EB3 visas are unused/wasted by USCIS. Very very savagely Sad !!

krishn

02-09-2015, 04:23 PM

EB3 I inventory decreased by 1950 , from oct14 to jan15

amulchandra

02-09-2015, 05:14 PM

EB3 row Inventory = 8,000

EB2 row Inventory = 17,994

Yes EB3I is in 2003 :-(

and for past several years EB3 visas are unused/wasted by USCIS. Very very savagely Sad !!

Hi all,

I have a question for all the great gurus here.

Looks like EB3 Row inventory is only 8000 and it is technically current. Will there be a big spillover for EB3 I this year? Can poor EB3 I souls can have some relief?

I really appreciate your inputs.

Best Regards
Amul

krishn

02-09-2015, 07:30 PM

last year for FY2014 Uscis/DOS moved dates for eb3i for 5 weeks.
from oct2013 to oct2014 visa bulletin - EB3I COD was moved from - 22sep2003 to 08Nov2003
and unused/wasted thousand of EB3 category visas as a whole.

if there is no spillover the eb3I dates should move into mar04, if there is any spillover looks like 5k avg, it should move to somewhere around sept04.

krishn

02-13-2015, 11:42 AM

isnt it time for USCIS to issue medical RFE's for EB3I jan2k4 guys ?

As it takes some time to get the medicals done , when will they issue these ?

even though the the CO moves EB3I dates for a week or two in next bulletin , Jan Eb3I I-485s may not be approvable so the visas may get wasted for the quarter , isnt it?

krishn

02-19-2015, 03:53 PM

Spec, Gurus ,

your thoughts on eb3I progress from now to september and how much will be the spillover from eb3row to eb3I this year?

thanks

krishn

03-11-2015, 02:37 PM

gcq

03-11-2015, 03:39 PM

EB3 ROW , M , P is technically current for months now.

EB3 I moves by one week , no medical rfe's for 2k4 eb3I 485's yet , so whats the use of moving dates by days or weeks if the visa eligible 485's are not approvable?

EB3C retrogress by 9 months. now this is shocker.

Maybe CO is waiting to do EB3 Fall across towards the last quarter of the year to be on safe side. Maybe he want to make sure no eligible EB3 row candidates misses their chance by doing FA too early.
Also EB3 ROW/P/M may be current for all "practical' purposes, but not current in paper. Once he moves dates a few months forward for EB3-ROW, they will be current on paper too.

Spectator

03-11-2015, 03:47 PM

EB3C retrogress by 9 months. now this is shocker.Not really.

CO warned about the possibility previously.

The increased demand in EB3-C has been caused by reverse porting of EB2-C cases to EB3-C. The last Inventory gives some clue to that.

On the Chinese forums, they are all crying about how to relink back to EB2 again.

Spectator

03-11-2015, 04:08 PM

Maybe CO is waiting to do EB3 Fall across towards the last quarter of the year to be on safe side. Maybe he want to make sure no eligible EB3 row candidates misses their chance by doing FA too early.
Also EB3 ROW/P/M may be current for all "practical' purposes, but not current in paper. Once he moves dates a few months forward for EB3-ROW, they will be current on paper too.gcq,

I think CO is being far too conservative with EB3-I movement.

I don't believe there is any doubt that there will be FA to India within EB3, although the exact amount may be unknown at this time. I think he could move the dates faster and still not compromise there being sufficient visa availability for EB3-WW for the rest of the FY.

The EB3-WW numbers may possibly see a surge at some point, if applicants don't insist on EB2 PERM requirements because the EB3-WW COD is so advanced. Given the time lag of the PERM/I-140/I-485 process, I'm not convinced that will be a factor for this FY.

amulchandra

03-12-2015, 11:18 AM

gcq,

I think CO is being far too conservative with EB3-I movement.

I don't believe there is any doubt that there will be FA to India within EB3, although the exact amount may be unknown at this time. I think he could move the dates faster and still not compromise there being sufficient visa availability for EB3-WW for the rest of the FY.

The EB3-WW numbers may possibly see a surge at some point, if applicants don't insist on EB2 PERM requirements because the EB3-WW COD is so advanced. Given the time lag of the PERM/I-140/I-485 process, I'm not convinced that will be a factor for this FY.

EB3 I movement is extremely disappointing. I am wondering why CO is not moving it knowing that there will be an SO this year. I am worried that in the last quarter they might swing it too far and might end up wasting the numbers or not following FIFO

ROCK72

03-12-2015, 04:28 PM

EB3 I movement is extremely disappointing. I am wondering why CO is not moving it knowing that there will be an SO this year. I am worried that in the last quarter they might swing it too far and might end up wasting the numbers or not following FIFO

I have been doing some Trackitt analysis on EB3 ROW approvals & this what I see;

Duration ---------------------EB3 ROW APPROVALS
Oct 2012 - Feb 2013 -----------------> 101

Oct 2013 - Feb 2014 -----------------> 176

Oct 2014 - Feb 2015 -----------------> 70

So, in the same time period, only 40% approvals of EB3 ROW in FY2015 vs FY2014 & only 70% vs FY2013. In FY2013, there was good amount of SO to EB3I. This may indicate more SO in Q4 for EB3I. Any thoughts?

migo79

03-14-2015, 04:02 AM

with the current Perm trend I think that EB3 ROW category will be safe for couple of years and will pull up EB3I with it.

I think CO should be safe until June bulletin to start moving EB3I at a more rapid pace, USCIS can issue RFE for medicals if needed and then approve straight forward cases.

the amount of FA is still to be determined, I see this calculation here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54074#post54074) as very relevant.

The approval for EB3ROW should start to pick up again in a month or two but will still be below limit, we also expected that if CO didn't move EB3ROW dates immediately beginning of the FY15 there will be this gap where there is virtually no demand for EB3ROW and latest Jan I485 pending inventory proved it.

krishn

03-17-2015, 01:18 PM

looks like times and meaning of RFE have changed. earlier rfe was thought of something as not so good to get on I-485. Now EB3I folks who are/would be current and did not receive medical RFE are raising service request with uscis customer service and talking to L2 officer to get one to send in their medicals. looks like everything changes with time.

iatiam

03-24-2015, 04:29 PM

Suva2001

03-24-2015, 04:52 PM

Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?

Iatiam

This is how it works - EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3

EB2-I receives the excess visas from EB1/Eb2WW. As EB2-I is backlogged so EB3-I doesn't get anything out of that. EB3WW gets around 28,000 visas every year from normal quota. 2015 would be the 1st year after many years when EB3WW doesn't have much demand to use that number. So excess from EB3WW would go to most backlogged candidates in the SAME category such as EB3-I because EB3-I is most backlogged in EB3.

General rule is excess visas should go to most backlogged countries in the SAME category first. This means EB2-I would first receives from EB2WW as both are EB2 categories. Similarly EB3-I would first receives from EB3WW as both are EB3 categories.

qesehmk

03-24-2015, 05:56 PM

Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?

Iatiam

Because EB3 visas never come back into EB2. The only place unused EB3ROW visas can go is the most backlogged applications in EB3 (country doesn't really matter).

Spectator

03-24-2015, 05:57 PM

Can some one explain to me why EB3I is expected to get SO from EB3WW? Why isn't this going to EB2I? Has some thing changed because I thought every year this SO is going to EB2I? With this SO, will EB3I become current?

IatiamIatam,

Essentially what Suva has said.

The term "Spillover" is comprised of two components:

a) Fall Down/Up - Unused visas in one Preference Category can be used in another Preference Category according to rules defined in the INA.

1) Unused numbers in EB4 and EB5 can Fall Up to EB1.
2) Unused numbers in EB1 can Fall Down to EB2.
3) Unused numbers in EB2 can Fall Down to EB3.
4) Unused numbers in EB3 are used in the computation of the next FY Family Based allocation. They do not Fall Down/Up to any other Employment Based Preference Category.

To be clear, there is no mechanism for EB2 to benefit from the under use of EB3 visa numbers. However, EB (and EB2-India in particular) benefits far more from the spare visas received from FB than any wasted from EB3.

b) Fall Across

Unused numbers within a Preference Category are first made available to other Countries within the same Preference Category.
1) Firstly they would be made available to any Country that has not yet reached the overall 7% limit.
2) Once demand from (i) has been satisfied (or the Countries themselves reach the 7% limit) they are made available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit on a strictly earliest Priority Date basis.

This is because the Category Preference Allocation limit (28.6% of the total EB allocation) is higher in the hierarchy than the Preference Category (EB2, EB3 etc) alone.
That is to say, for the base 140,000 EB limit, the 40,040 visas allocated to EB3 cannot be used by any other Category while EB3 has demand from any Country within EB3.
Similarly, EB1 could not use EB2 FA if they had a sufficiently high demand.

ii) If all demand within a Preference Category is satisfied, then both FA and FD numbers can Fall Down to the next Preference Category (if applicable).

In practice, this FY, the most likely scenario is:

EB5-China will receive a lot of FA from other Countries within EB5. EB5 will provide no Fall Up to EB1.

No Country in EB4 will use Fall Across within EB4. EB4 may provide some Fall Up to EB1.

EB1-China and EB1-India will use Fall Across within EB1 (they almost certainly are already doing so this FY, having already passed the 7% limit within EB1).
EB1 may provide some Fall Down to EB2.

EB2-ROW, EB2-M and possibly EB2-P will provide some Fall Across within EB2 to the most retrogressed Country (India).
EB2 will not provide any Fall Down to EB3.

EB3-ROW and EB3-M will provide some Fall Across within EB3 to the most retrogressed Country (India).

iatiam

03-25-2015, 10:44 AM

Spec, Q and Suva,

Appreciate all your feedback.

Spec,

From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?

Iatiam

krishn

04-03-2015, 12:58 PM

when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?

kd2008

04-03-2015, 02:04 PM

when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?

Usually mid-May

Spectator

04-03-2015, 02:05 PM

when will be the April i-485 inventory be available to us publicly ?The last 2 inventories were published about 5 weeks after the end of the quarter.

Around the first week of May, if it follows that trend.

Suva2001

04-07-2015, 04:59 PM

What's your forecast for EB3-I?

amulchandra

04-13-2015, 05:30 PM

1. EB3ROW has no place to go except "Current" now. EB3I folks will need to be issued Medical/EVL RFEs pretty soon - time is running out. This pretending by USCIS that nothing is going on in EB3 and EB3I can just continue with 1-2 week movement each month is getting a little ridiculous.

I am getting tired of this pretending game.

Any guess how far EB3 I might move if it moves?

Thanks
Amul

Spectator

04-14-2015, 04:11 PM

What's your forecast for EB3-I?

I am getting tired of this pretending game.

Any guess how far EB3 I might move if it moves?

Thanks
AmulI thought it was time for an EB3 post.

The questions above look deceptively simple - except they aren't.

The answer is obviously that it depends on how many visas are available for EB3-I.

That in turn depends on how many visas other Countries are going to use?

The problem is that it is not obvious what the answer is to the last question.

Let's take the Countries in turn.

EB3-China

They'll probably get extra due to under use in FB-China. Lets say they use an extra 500-600, similar to last year - so 3.5k

EB3-Mexico

I haven't got a clue. Let's say they also use about 3.5k.

EB3-Philippines

It's fairly clear EB3-P have already received about as many approvals as they will in the FY, due to the 7 year retrogression in May. EB3-P are bounded by hitting the overall 7% limit, so we're looking at 6-6.5k approvals for EB3-P.

EB3-India

Let's also assume that, initially, EB3-I also receive some extra numbers from FB and can use 3.5k without exceeding the 7% overall limit.

EB3-ROW

That leaves EB3-ROW allocation left within the overall EB3 limit as 41.4 - (3.5*3) - 6.5 = 24.4k (+ or - 1-2k)

So, the amount under 24.4k that EB3-ROW uses (assuming EB3 uses all numbers) would be available to add to the 3.5k EB-I number.

The Problems

Here's the problem. I don't think there is yet any good evidence of how many cases EB3-ROW (and EB3-M) have each month now.

Another problem is that EB3-ROW/M were retrogressed until December 2014 and with about 6/7 months processing time for an I-485 currently, those cases filed in December won't start to be approved in any numbers until May/June 2015.

The previous retrogression for 6 months is. IMO, why EB3-ROW approvals have been fairly low to date this FY. Maybe 6-7k have been approved to date. There also still appear to be quite a few older cases yet to be approved.

That gives gives 4/5 months of potentially higher EB3-ROW approvals (May/June-Sept). In the 4/5 months Dec 2014 to Mar/Apr 2015, the VB COD moved 17-23 months for EB3-ROW/M.

That means those cases can potentially be approved within the current FY.

At 30% of the ROW PERM, EB3-ROW would have about 800 cases per PD month allowing for some wastage. That translates to a potential 13.6 to 18.4k approvals towards the end of FY2015.

At the top end of all the calculations, that is actually enough to use all the available visas for EB3-ROW (7k + 18k = 25k vs 24.4k available).

At the bottom end EB3-I receive quite a healthy amount of FA and could receive at least as many (if not slightly more) than the approx 8k total received in FY2013.

800/month may be far too high a number.

My gut feel is that it will be near the top end, considering all factors and USCIS processing.

But, frankly, it's a guess. I've used some figures that might give the illusion of knowledge. That's not true - I'd rather call it an illustration by way of an example.

I do want people to understand that an increase in EB3-ROW approvals is expected - the volume is the unknown and therefore so is the scale of FA potentially available to EB3-I.

Finally, please feel free to think the above is a load of rubbish - it could well be. I do hope that it provides some points for you consider when you ponder the issue.

I'm sure I'll regret laying my thoughts out - so be it. People are rightly asking the question and not receiving a reply.

gcq

04-14-2015, 04:32 PM

Thanks for the analysis Spec !

--Another EB3-I soul ( May 2004 PD )

Suva2001

04-14-2015, 04:44 PM

Thanks Spec.

Suva2001

04-14-2015, 04:59 PM

One thing I didn't understand how EB3-P can use 6-6.5K in this FY. Shouldn't they be limited to 3K due to 7% limit?

krishn

04-14-2015, 05:18 PM

thank you Spec.

So if we put all the pieces of info and analysis together, it looks like the CO cannot move the dates till last quarter/month to use up the spill-over/fall-across. So all in all we may see a 5k - 8k FA for EB3I this FY15.
So the EB3I dates in sept15 bulletin may jump anywhere to jun04 - Oct04.Again this is purely speculation take the info for wat its worth.

amulchandra

04-14-2015, 05:19 PM

Spectator

04-14-2015, 05:25 PM

One thing I didn't understand how EB3-P can use 6-6.5K in this FY. Shouldn't they be limited to 3K due to 7% limit?Suva,

That's because while it is convenient to think of the 7% limit as applying individually in each Category (i.e. 2,803 in EB3 in a normal year with no extra FB visas), it isn't.

CO interprets the law as 7% of the sum of FB and EB visas, so when that is 226,000 + 140,000 then 7% is 25,620.

Keeping it simple and considering EB only, that could be thought of as 7% of 140,000 or 9,800. That's basically the case for Philippines because they use their FB allocation.

EB-Philippines can therefore use a total of 9,800 visas within EB and still be considered within the 7% limit.

Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5, so they can use quite a few in EB3 and still not breach the 7% limit.

As an example from FY2014 when 7% was calculated as 26,337 overall (and 10,517 derived from EB): (see the September 2014 VB (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-september-2014.html))

Philippines
EB1 ----- 262
EB2 --- 1,972
EB3 --- 5,685
EB4 ----- 251
EB5 ------- 2

Total - 8,172

As you can see, despite using 5,685 visas in EB3, Philippines was well inside the prorated EB limit of 10,517. In fact, Philippines could have used a further 2,345 visas and still been within the 7% limit as interpreted.

South Korea received 11,786 EB visas in FY2014. Although that appears to be more than 7%, it is not, because the overall 7% limit was 26,337 and South Korea only used 1,511 FB visas for a grand Total of 13,297. They could have used another 13,040 and still stayed within 7% because of their incredibly low FB use.

Personally, I think the current interpretation is a bit crazy, but that is what it is.

Spectator

04-14-2015, 05:29 PM

Spec! Thank you very much for your analysis.

2004 is a big mountain for EB3 I. If it is cleared I am hoping it will move LITTLE faster next FY. My PD is July 2006. Hoping to see it current by the end of next FY.

AmulAmul,

I guess it is, given the Inventory shows the highest yearly number for 2004.

My eye is always drawn to March 2005 which contains over 40% of 2005 numbers. That doesn't appear to be a mistake, since it was echoed in the IVAMS data DOS released for the Chinese EB3 lawsuit.

I suspect it has something to do with PERM being introduced in 2005.

PS I'd like to stress that I don't consider my prior post as befitting the title of analysis. Unconnected ramblings would be a better description.

qesehmk

04-14-2015, 05:31 PM

Thanks for the analysis Spec !

--Another EB3-I soul ( May 2004 PD )

gcq - i have a hunch .... this is going to be your year! For selfish reasons I hope you stay around this forum. But I will be glad if you are gone :)

Spectator

04-14-2015, 05:35 PM

Q,

I'd completely echo your thoughts and sentiments.

ROCK72

04-14-2015, 06:55 PM

Gurus,

Here are some calculations based on FY2013 & FY2014 usages vs Trackitt cases. Please see if it makes sense...

FY 2013

AOS+CP
CP
Trackitt

Trackitt
Total Visas Quota
Total Visas Alloted*

%

EB3-I
416
3003
7816
206
5.32

EB3-C
13
2703
3229
1342
0.40

EB3-M
11
3003
3237
326
0.34

EB3-P
12
3003
5636
3547
0.21

EB3-ROW
276
31188
23822
3116
1.16

Totals
728
42900
43740
8537
1.66

*DOS

FY 2014

AOS+CP
CP
Trackitt

Trackitt
Total Visas Quota
Total Visas Alloted*

%

EB3-I
180
3003
3526
236
5.10

EB3-C
36
2703
3676
1273
0.98

EB3-M
11
3003
3738
231
0.29

EB3-P
19
3003
5685
2298
0.33

EB3-ROW
313
31188
26074
3050
1.20

Totals
559
42900
42699
7088
1.31

FY 2015

@ 4/14/2015

Estimated
Estimated

Trackitt
Total Visas Quota
Usage till Date
Remaining

EB3-I
72
2897
1410
1487

EB3-C
2
2597
204
2393

EB3-M
6
2897
2039
858

EB3-P
21
2897
6283
-3386

EB3-ROW
77
30105
6414
23691

Totals
178
41393
16351
25042