View Full Version : EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011
qesehmk
10-03-2010, 10:29 AM
SUMMARY
Pls find below the last EB2IC forecast preserved, actual Sep 2011 movement and analysis about the difference.
In summary, as can be seen below our model showed movement upto Jul 2007 for EB2IC. Trackitt model (in FACTS and DATA Section) showed pretty much the same as late as Jul 2011. However dates didn't move in September. While this was greatly disappointing, in retrospect, we are quite happy for the movement we saw throughout the year for EB2IC. All in all - we were pretty close to our very original prediction which was Mar-Apr 2007 - which yielded about ~30-32K SOFAD.
Reason Why Dates Moved So Well Until August Bulletin
EB1 turned into a "white swan" this year. Throughout year, it was running at ~50% of annual quota and prior year demand. This was made possible because of the strict scrutiny owing to Kazarian memo. ROW EB2 had some effect of this but overall was close to 80-90% of prior year usage. So the real driver was EB1.
Looking at this DoS felt comfortable to move dates and provide SOFAD to EB2IC from May itself.
Reason Why They Didn't Move So Well in September Bulletin
The expectation was EB1 would yield 16-20K, EB2ROWMP - 7-8K, & EB5 - 7-8K. Coupled with EB2IC regular quota of 5.6K this would've meant backlog clearing all teh way through July. But as can be seen EB1 was the key.
In early August, we saw trackitt trending upward quite fast. But 5 days data is hardly worth making any trend projections. So we didnt factor it in. Then came the bulletin with disappointing news. It was immediately clear that EB1 usage has jumped considerably and so has ROW EB2. There is not a whole lot visibility - but rumour has it , USCIS had 12K EB1 EB2ROW extra cases ready to be approved in just 2 months. Adding the 7-9K usual monthly rate that they used throughout the month, gives just about 19-20K which is exactly how much was left in total for EB category.
Bottomline, EB1 to a large extent and EB2ROW to a lesser extent stopped any further movement.
What it Means for 2012
The non-movement was certainly disappointing for a lot of IC folks waiting to file 485 since 2007!!! Imagine that! And this has delayed their wait by 6-9 months.
The 12K "surprise" cases approved this year does mean less backlog for EB1 EB2ROW going into next year and a decent SOFAD next year. We will discuss more dligently on a separate 2012 thread, how ever for now the worst estimates for 2012 SOFAD are 18K minimum and between 20-30K realistic. So may be 24-25K is a realistic number.
In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.
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Last Forecast
Based on the Sep 2011 Visa bulletin O information about EB1 as well as latest trackitt data from Q1/Q2, this is the current status and predictions for EB2.
In summary we think that EB2IC will receive total 36K SOFAD of which ~30K will go towards backlog reduction. Approx. 6K will be used towards - a) porting 4K b) PWMB 0K c) Counselar Processing 2K.
This would mean EB2IC dates moving into first week of Jul 2007 in September Bulletin. Movement beyond this date is possible but possibly would involve retrogression couple of months down the line.
FACTS AND DATA SECTION
Those wanting to do their own analysis, you can find a treasure of data in FACTS and DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
PWBA - People Waiting for Boat to arrive (i.e. waiting to file 485)
SYA - Same year approvals
R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
BTM - Big Temporary Movement
UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement
TBM - Temporary Backward Movement
Summary - EB2 IS GOING TO See 36K SOFAD of which 30K will be utilized towards backlog reduction and EB2IC dates will move into July 2007.
The big drivers behind this are as follows:
1) USCIS processing times for 485 cases filed in 2011 are lagging behind. So only 37-50% of 2011 new demand will translate into visa demand. VO has already confirmed 44% decline in EB1 visa demand.
2) EB2-ROW 20% reduction in "NEW" demand. (confirmed by trackitt data YoY).
The 2010 Approvals saw EB1 and EB2-ROW new demand (i.e. complete new 485 applications) at an unprecedented levels. EB1 received 46K new applications. EB2-ROW-MP received 31K.
In 2011 however both EB1 seem to be receiving 56% NEW demand. EB2-ROW new demand is resuming its natural rate (after 2010 PERM surge). Current approval rates indicate EB2 ROW new demand could be upto 20% lower compared to last year. Also same year approvals hover around 70% for EB1 as well as EB2-ROW even if the categories are current. So going into 2011 these two factors will dominate which way SOFAD goes:
Factor 1 - EB1 & EB2-ROW 485 filings compared to 2010 (R485). Approx. at 100%
Factor 2 - EB1 & EB2 same year approvals (SYA). Approx. at 37%
we will call them R485 and SYA respectively.
As we said, R485 seem to be at 100%. SYA seem to be at 37%. At those levels we can see a SOFAD upto 39K (33K towards backlog and dates reaching Jul 2007).
Please see attached image for various scenarios.
The headwinds for EB2IC are as follows:- Significant EB1 backlog (7K)
- Significant EB2-ROW-MP backlog (10K)
- Lack of FB spillover in 2011
- EB3->2 conversions
The tailwinds for EB2IC are:
- Low conversion of NEW demand into visa demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW - SYA at 37%
- SYA historically at 70% which leads to within category spillover.
- EB5 may continue to provide 5-8K SOFAD
- Possible rejections of 140s / 485s
- Much of the PWMBs won't translate into visa demand in FY 2011.
The explanation of terms:1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000 designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. Backlog 485 - Is the inventory that includes 485. It doesn't include 33% PWMBs (between Jan-Jul 2007) and 3% portings (i.e. 4-5K per year).
3. 2011 New Demand - Is the additional 485 applications for 2011. As of now same demand as 2010 is used.
4. 2011 SOFAD - Shows in green how much surplus each category will provide. If -ve it shows the backlog in that category at the end of Sep 2011.
5. FA recvd - Fall Across Visas Received Within A Category
6. FA Given - Fall Across Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled
7. FD recvd - Fall Up Down Visas Received From Another Category
8. Spare Visas - These are the total spare visas in a category that can be used for countries that have hit their limits.
9. IC Quota - India china quota
10 . IC consumption - This is the traditional SOFAD or Total IC consumption which goes towards clearing IC backlog (esp EB2).
8. FD given - Fall Up Down Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is Fulfilled
Assumptions:
0. VB provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 30% people w PDs bet Jan-Jul 2007 missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. R485 at 100%
9. SYA at 37-50%
9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2 perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.
Visa Bulletin Analysis
VB confirms the trend of large SOFAD this year based on early movement of dates. The USCIS processing times also confirm this trend. So does trackitt data.
Future Date Movements
In all likelihood, VB will move the dates all the way to Jul 2007 for EB2IC in the August Bulletin itself to allow at least some of the PWMBs to receive GC this year itself. Then in September or October they may move the dates sufficiently forward to take in large intake. I would imagine dates moving into mid 2008 briefly and then retrogressing.
EB3 Silver Lining
Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K). Coupled with portings, the EB3I dates will move by almost 8K equivalent of backlog i.e. probably between Dec 02 - Jan 2003. The probability of this happening is 30%.
p.s. there is ambiguity about if there is EB3 spillover whether it will go to EB3IC or EB3ROW.
More details in POST #3'
NOTE: Some of you are not able to see the image below in an embedded manner. You can download the image by right-clicking on it. But unfortunately if you want to see it embedded then you need to login. This functionality is off-the-shelf and I don't know how to configure it. If somebody knows how to fix this problem pls let me know.
arorasa
10-05-2010, 11:02 PM
Have enjoyed your posts at IV. Happy to be the first one here. Thanks for your efforts.
qesehmk
10-06-2010, 12:26 AM
Thank you. It has been a joyous and unexpected ride! Look forward to continue these discussions.
Have enjoyed your posts at IV. Happy to be the first one here. Thanks for your efforts.
Visa usage at full demand (partial credit to Spec) & why the dates are moving the way they are
This is something that Spec tossed out first and then I have modified it.
If there were sufficient demand across board then by law USCIS has to allocate 27% each Quarter and 1/3 or remaining in each month. When the demand is not sufficient - theoretically DoS is supposed to issue visas to retrogressed countries. However we all know that doesn;t happen for some reason. This is an excellent area to do advocacy for those who have the muscle and the money. But that is not the main point I am going to make. The main point is - This year like last visa office chose to allocate spillover into Q4.
So while the usage at 7th month was 52, At full year rate it would've been 89K. Add 10K CP to that. So that gives us 40K SOFAD roughly. Visa office chose to allocate some of the sofad early on in Jun and Jul. This month in July when teh June numbers came in .... the lack of demand in non-retro countries was sufficiently established and so VO could easily allocate the quota upto July for retro countries in August. And that's exactly what he has done. This way he has taken care of retro countries while keeping 2 months normal quota for August as well as September should there be any surge in non-retro countries.
Realistically this presents a very good opportunity to have anywhere between 4-10K additional SOFAD to EB2IC thus taking the dates in Sep to 1 Jul to beyond Mid August.
September Visa Bulletin Leftover
Our chinese friends apparently have some reasonably credible information that they received from the visa office. In summary, 52K visas were used through April 30. 121K seem to have been allocated through August 31st. Leaving 19K for September 2011.
There is quite confusion abouit whether this 19K is only for september or august as well. After a lot of discussions here is what I feel (and spec agrees).
121K is meant for all Jul YTD demand + all EB2IC demand that will be fulfilled through August. 19K will be used towards everybody other than EB2IC. Its quite possible that some of the 19K will still go unused and be made available to EB2IC, Our best estimation is that ata minimum that number will be 4K upto 10K. So the september movement will be from last week of June upto mid August.
Here is trackitt confirmation of how much is left for September.
Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).
if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.
Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.
That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation and 19K for September.
Posted by Spec
How Much Spillover is Required In September 2011 to Move to a Particular Cut Off Date?
This should only be considered as a ready reckoner.
It is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).
It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.
It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.
-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 143 ---- 329 ---- 472 ---- 472
01-May-07 ---- 307 ---- 705 -- 1,012 ---- 540
08-May-07 ---- 424 ---- 946 -- 1,370 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 541 -- 1,187 -- 1,728 ---- 358
22-May-07 ---- 658 -- 1,429 -- 2,087 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 826 -- 1,774 -- 2,600 ---- 513
08-Jun-07 ---- 953 -- 2,071 -- 3,024 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,180 -- 2,368 -- 3,448 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,207 -- 2,665 -- 3,872 ---- 424
01-Jul-07 -- 1,371 -- 3,048 -- 4,419 ---- 547
08-Jul-07 -- 1,758 -- 3,409 -- 5,167 ---- 748
15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,534 -- 4,132 -- 6,666 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,089 -- 4,649 -- 7,738 -- 1,072
08-Aug-07 -- 3,167 -- 4,767 -- 7,934 ---- 196
15-Aug-07 -- 3,257 -- 4,902 -- 8,159 ---- 225
I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.
Spectator
10-06-2010, 08:51 AM
Q,
I wanted say thanks for setting this up as independent from any other Immigration Site. Where it ended up, meant that many people could no longer view it.
CURRENT STATUS
The 485 inventory is not out. So it is hard to say how much SOFAD occured last year. However looking at TRACKITT data it looks like the number was 24.4K.
I agree that looks to be the figure, based on Trackitt data.
What's The FUTURE?
We still have 42K EB2 pending as of now. If history is any precedent, then 24K SOFAD last year would mean in year 10-11 EB2 will be cleared only through Dec 06. This is quite disheartening. However, we should predict better when new inventory is published.
I have calculated using a different model to yourself, but have also obtained the same result. However, the level of EB3-EB2 porting makes a difference to this.
As you can see the model tells us much bigger SOFAD - about 48K. 25K is from EB1-4-5 and 23K from EB2-ROW. The 23K from ROW and 6K from EB5 is reasonable one. But in 09-10 we saw that EB1 is a sink hole. And so we think that about 24K backlog - same as last year - is a reasonable bet going forward. Why we didn't see FALL-DOWN in 09-10 - we do not know why. This question can possibly only be answered after 485 inventory is published.
I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.
Trackitt data suggests that EB2-ROW approvals in FY2010 were c.24.5K. That would imply spill across of c.6.5K.
EB2-M and EB2-P historically only use about 3K of the 6K they could use, so that would give spill across to EB2-C & EB2-I of a further 3K for 9.5K total.
Forecasting categories that are Current is extremely difficult (EB1 and EB2 other than China & India).
The Inventory reports are useless, since most approved cases are never shown in them. Thus we are left with approval data from sources outside DOS and USCIS, which essentially means Trackitt.
But that has problems. If the percentage of cases on Trackitt remains fairly constant then it works. If there is a change to the percentage, then the figures become distorted.
EB1 is a good example of this. There are relatively few EB1 cases on Trackitt, so a small change in the numbers input can make a big difference.
Using the FY2009 % figure leads one to believe that there were far fewer EB1 approvals in FY2010 compared to FY2009. This is particularly evident in EB1C.
However, given the EB1C bashing that seems to have been popular, I wouldn't be surprised if those people have not entered their details, which will distort the prediction.
To show the fluctuation, the % of Trackitt approved cases to Actual approvals for EB1 was:
FY2008 - 0.677892%
FY2009 - 1.2372493%
Until the Statistical Visa Reports for FY are published, it is impossible to tell what the situation actually was in FY2010, but historical data suggests EB1 approvals will be around 40K. Unless the FY2010 Report shows considerable deviation, I would expect that to continue in FY2011 as well.
Possibly and probably you may not agree with the points I have made. That's fine. They are not meant as criticism, but rather discussion on the (rather difficult) subject and offer a different viewpoint. I'm sure you will read them as such. I'm sure the "usual suspects" such as Teddy will soon add their own comments.
Finally, I want to wish you all the best for the coming year, both for this venture and your Immigration journey.
kranthi
10-06-2010, 10:47 AM
Have gained a lot from your analysis. Thanks Q
Q,
nice to see you on your own forum.
I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.
Trackitt data suggests that EB2-ROW approvals in FY2010 were c.24.5K. That would imply spill across of c.6.5K.
EB2-M and EB2-P historically only use about 3K of the 6K they could use, so that would give spill across to EB2-C & EB2-I of a further 3K for 9.5K total.
This is a short excerpt from the minutes of recent AILA DC Chapter meeting with Charles Oppenheim:
"Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country".
So, I don't agree with your disagreement with Q on the Spill over.
baba2s
10-06-2010, 10:18 PM
Hello Q,
It really helped me reading your posts.. Joining here
qesehmk
10-06-2010, 11:27 PM
Spec, independence helps because we are not here to compete with anybody. So lets freely discuss all sources including IV :-)
Yes EB3->2 porting is a bit tricky but i am quite confident that the number is not more than 4-5K. 485 inventory will confirm.
I agree that ROW spillover may be different. But based on available labor data and the condition of the economy I thought that was the best. But again the 485 inventory will tell us where we overestimated.
Forecasting categories that are current is actually easier. All you have to do is take last year demand and inflate with a reasonable % and use for next year. So may be assume a 20% extra margin. This is especially true for EB1. EB2 is a bit different story because for EB2 its possible that there was huge PERM build up which was subsequently released thereby creating swings in YoY data.
Inventory reports are inaccurate but not entirely useless. Without them I would be forecasting pretty much nothing !! However you are right that they are esp less useful for EB3.
You are absolutely right about trackitt. So we have to use trackitt with a bit intelligence. Can't make generalized ratios and use indiscriminately.
Thanks very much for thoughtful comments. Disagreement is good .... that is where learning comes from :-)
Q,
I wanted say thanks for setting this up as independent from any other Immigration Site. Where it ended up, meant that many people could no longer view it.
I have calculated using a different model to yourself, but have also obtained the same result. However, the level of EB3-EB2 porting makes a difference to this.
I am not sure I would agree that 23K from ROW is reasonable.
Forecasting categories that are Current is extremely difficult (EB1 and EB2 other than China & India).
The Inventory reports are useless, since most approved cases are never shown in them. Thus we are left with approval data from sources outside DOS and USCIS, which essentially means Trackitt.
But that has problems. If the percentage of cases on Trackitt remains fairly constant then it works. If there is a change to the percentage, then the figures become distorted.
EB1 is a good example of this. There are relatively few EB1 cases on Trackitt, so a small change in the numbers input can make a big difference.
Using the FY2009 % figure leads one to believe that there were far fewer EB1 approvals in FY2010 compared to FY2009. This is particularly evident in EB1C.
However, given the EB1C bashing that seems to have been popular, I wouldn't be surprised if those people have not entered their details, which will distort the prediction.
To show the fluctuation, the % of Trackitt approved cases to Actual approvals for EB1 was:
FY2008 - 0.677892%
FY2009 - 1.2372493%
Until the Statistical Visa Reports for FY are published, it is impossible to tell what the situation actually was in FY2010, but historical data suggests EB1 approvals will be around 40K. Unless the FY2010 Report shows considerable deviation, I would expect that to continue in FY2011 as well.
Possibly and probably you may not agree with the points I have made. That's fine. They are not meant as criticism, but rather discussion on the (rather difficult) subject and offer a different viewpoint. I'm sure you will read them as such. I'm sure the "usual suspects" such as Teddy will soon add their own comments.
Finally, I want to wish you all the best for the coming year, both for this venture and your Immigration journey.
qesehmk
10-06-2010, 11:34 PM
This is a short excerpt from the minutes of recent AILA DC Chapter meeting with Charles Oppenheim:
"Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country".
So, I don't agree with your disagreement with Q on the Spill over.
Vedu you made my day with this information. If true this confirms my contention that 24.5K SOFAD occured excluding conversions. (of course in the ball park range)!
As per what Spec is saying .... he could still be true. Charles statement says that in EB1 India and China received more than usual because of fall-across. Not only that EB2 received fall down. It also says because of SOFAD EB2I and EB2C received 20K and 6.5K respectively. However what it doesn't tell is how much of 20K is because of fall-down vs fall-across.
In other words its possible that EB2 fall across was minimal and most of the 20K was fall down. However in my opinion fall-across is easier to come by than FD.
baba2, kranti, gcq - welcome all. Feels really good after all the madness today.
Hello Q,
It really helped me reading your posts.. Joining here
Have gained a lot from your analysis. Thanks Q
Q,
nice to see you on your own forum.
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 10:41 AM
Ind Chn Ind + chn PD Porting
/ Offset PWMB Row Total Cumulative
May-06 1398 580 1978 500 50 2528 2528
Jun-06 1677 754 2431 500 50 2981 5509
Jul-06 1538 641 2179 500 50 2729 8238
Aug-06 1662 722 2384 500 50 2934 11172
Sep-06 1702 807 2509 500 50 3059 14231
Oct-06 1729 757 2486 500 50 3036 17267
Nov-06 1746 690 2436 500 50 2986 20253
Dec-06 1887 803 2690 500 50 3240 23493
Jan-07 1528 699 2227 500 50 2777 26270
Feb-07 1447 620 2067 500 50 2617 28887
Mar-07 1377 728 2105 500 50 2655 31542
Apr-07 1394 659 2053 500 50 2603 34145
May-07 1043 546 1589 500 500 2589 36734
Jun-07 1296 288 1584 500 1000 3084 39818
Jul-07 1747 2007 3754 500 2000 6254 46072
Aug-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 49072
Sep-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 52072
Oct-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 55072
Nov-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 58072
Dec-07 2000 500 2500 500 0 3000 61072
Guys the DOS annual report will take a while to come out and looks like the new inventory is also not available. So what I did is plotted the numbers for India & China from the May inventory. The third column is India + China, after Jul 2007 I assume that India is 2000 PM and china is 500 PM. The total demand as per Oct demand data was 34K the inventory total is ~ 30K so the inventory is lighter. To overcome this and assuming PD porting will happen on a constant basis I have a addition of 500 every month. The next column is the PWMB who are really primarily concentrated in May, Jun and Jul.
Now to get to the date movement you can think of the SOFAD value that you think will happen this year and match it up with the cumulative month to get the year-month. Some of us (very few) believe that SOFAD was 30K with this trend holding for the next 2 years all backlog till Dec 2007 will be cleared by Sep 2012 and the date by Sep 2011 will hover in the Feb – March 2007 range. Some have suggested that SOFAD was only 17k you can see that with this we maybe stuck In Oct 2006 itself. A lot of people believe that SOFAD was 20-25K with this we may just barely scrape 2006. Friends you can now derive your conclusions for the coming years. All the best. The biggest news that we all await is regarding FB spillover, there are really mixed indications about it some say it is going to be very high while some say that that there maybe no FB spillover. Every 10K of FB gives ~6.5K of SOFAD assuming it comes from EB1, EB2 & EB5.
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 10:58 AM
Folks and friends I did some research on Trackitt to find out what exactly happened. I don't know of any other source where we can make this exact analysis. I believe now that both EB1and EB2 gave us SOFAD but both individually were lesser than expected. Please review and tear apart.
Approvals 2009
EB1-A : 98
EB1-B : 191
EB1-C : 267
EB1 Total - 556
EB2-ROW - 719
Approvals 2010
EB1-A : 100
EB1-B : 159
EB1-C : 123
EB1 Total - 382
EB2-ROW - 507
Percentage reduction in EB1 = 31.3%
Percentage reduction in EB2 ROW = 29.4%
Now we know that both EB1 and EB2 ROW consumed their own individual quota last year. Let’s now try and calculate the SOFAD they would have provided in 2010.
Assuming EB2 ROW to be (42K -6K for I/C) the SOFAD is 36K * 31.3% = 11268
Assuming EB1 to be 42K the SOFAD is 12348
India + China individual quota = 6K
Assuming EB5 Fall down = 6K
Total SOFAD is approximately 35K (11K + 12K + 6K + 6K).
For margin of error lets put it in the range 30-35K. Also to many of us EB1-C is a great concern but this is the component of EB1 that declined the most. Based on this calculation SOFAD was certainly 30K. So what could have happened I believe the most likely answer is PD porting, especially Sep 2010 saw a lot of porting approvals.
qesehmk
10-07-2010, 11:55 AM
Teddy
Excellent pieces on first entry on this forum!! Sixer mara.
Overall I agree w your inventory. I have a few differences but very minor. If you want to improve, you may want to include 4K for prior-to-may-06 and 6K for CP inventory.
Guys the DOS annual report will take a while to come out and looks like the new inventory is also not available. So what I did is plotted the numbers for India & China from the May inventory. The third column is India + China, after Jul 2007 I assume that India is 2000 PM and china is 500 PM. The total demand as per Oct demand data was 34K the inventory total is ~ 30K so the inventory is lighter. To overcome this and assuming PD porting will happen on a constant basis I have a addition of 500 every month. The next column is the PWMB who are really primarily concentrated in May, Jun and Jul.
On second one, did you add 6.5K FB which was not there in 2009? Other than that you are spot on.
So now the million dollar question is - if all of this os true why didn't dates move to take care of 30K plus quota? The answer is WE DO NOT KNOW. The guess is that probably there were a bit more conversions than we thought, a bit more ROW demand than we thought and most importantly USCIS may have wasted some visas.
Folks and friends I did some research on Trackitt to find out what exactly happened. I don't know of any other source where we can make this exact analysis. I believe now that both EB1and EB2 gave us SOFAD but both individually were lesser than expected. Please review and tear apart.
Percentage reduction in EB1 = 31.3%
Percentage reduction in EB2 ROW = 29.4%
Now we know that both EB1 and EB2 ROW consumed their own individual quota last year. Let’s now try and calculate the SOFAD they would have provided in 2010.
Total SOFAD is approximately 35K (11K + 12K + 6K + 6K).
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 12:11 PM
Friends just read the following the SOFAD was 26.5K last year.
* Under AC21, EB‐1 China/India cases are not currently subject to the per country quota, because of the cross‐over in that category of otherwise unused numbers from other countries. This has allowed 5,000‐ 6000 visa numbers to be allocated to India and China EB‐1 when approximately 2,800 would be the normal limit. The remaining unused EB‐1 numbers "fall down" into the EB‐2 categories. That has allowed approximately 20,000 EB‐2 numbers for India and nearly 6,500 for China. The availability of these numbers "fall across" strictly in priority date order, not by country.
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 02:53 PM
Teddy
Thanks, My responses inline
Excellent pieces on first entry on this forum!! Sixer mara.
Overall I agree w your inventory. I have a few differences but very minor. If you want to improve, you may want to include 4K for prior-to-may-06 and 6K for CP inventory.
Q I believe that the 4K pre May 2006 maybe high, if you look at Trackitt just like last year October is having a good number of approvals, so possibly cap number was assigned in September itself, I believe that this number maybe smaller maybe around 1K. I have a monthly factor of 500 which should have the following a) New PD Porting b) Entities not in Demand data which is 34K as opposed to 30K. I have put in this factor as 500 probably this may need to be increased if not sufficient.
On second one, did you add 6.5K FB which was not there in 2009? Other than that you are spot on.
In 2009 as we know EB1 just overshot its cap marginally and EB2 ROW was current but did not give anything. So I assumed the consumption equal to the cap. The figures that Iam trying to give out are actually a reduction in consumption when comparing 2009 and 2010, 2010 Cap is FB loaded so I multiplied the reduction factors with the actual cap for the categories.
So now the million dollar question is - if all of this os true why didn't dates move to take care of 30K plus quota? The answer is WE DO NOT KNOW. The guess is that probably there were a bit more conversions than we thought, a bit more ROW demand than we thought and most importantly USCIS may have wasted some visas.
I just posted a report that indicates total SOFAD is 26.5K. It’s lower than expected and 6.5K is the FB contribution. Now the big news will be how much FB this year.
qesehmk
10-07-2010, 03:15 PM
I just posted a report that indicates total SOFAD is 26.5K. It’s lower than expected and 6.5K is the FB contribution. Now the big news will be how much FB this year.
Haven't read that report in detail yet. But going back to your trackitt approach, it makes more sense to calculate reduction without FB numbers and tehn simply add the whole FB number to that number.
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 03:28 PM
Haven't read that report in detail yet. But going back to your trackitt approach, it makes more sense to calculate reduction without FB numbers and tehn simply add the whole FB number to that number.
Lets go step-wise.
- The percentage reduction is calculated on the basis of Trackitt consumption.
- Both EB1 & EB2 ROW did not use their cap fully this though an assumption is highly likely.
- Now last years consumption has been assumed to be last years cap itself for these categories for approximation sake.
- This years cap is higher courtesy FB but when we calculate the SOFAD this years CAP never gets involved in any multiplication or division but SOFAD = (This Years CAP) - Reduced consumption calculated based on percentage reduction.
- So really if you apply FB spillover numbers earlier or later will not make a difference to the final value.
Unfortunately that hard fact is that this approach yielded 35K however the actual figure is 26.5K, I believe that the real reason is that Trackitt data is good for EB2 ROW, however looks like for EB1 the Trackitt representation came down in 2010 in proportionate terms. Also the report indicates higher usage of Eb1 for both India and China which is fairly natural as for India and China the way out is EB1.
qesehmk
10-07-2010, 03:42 PM
Lets go step-wise.
- This years cap is higher courtesy FB but when we calculate the SOFAD this years CAP never gets involved in any multiplication or division but SOFAD = (This Years CAP) - Reduced consumption calculated based on percentage reduction.
- So really if you apply FB spillover numbers earlier or later will not make a difference to the final value.
Granted 26.5K may be the final SOFAD. But you never know w USCIS. Also it doesn't hurt to cross check thought process. So here I go...
FB contributed approx 3K to EB1 and 2 in 2010. Lets assume for sake of simplicity reduction is 33%. Lets assume category was 39K last year and 42K this year owing to FB spillover. And lets concentrate only on one category. There is no fall-down here.
SOFAD per your definition will yield 14K(=42K-42K*(1-33%)). Per my definition will yield 16K (=39K*33%+3K). In other words all FB spillover this year contributes to SOFAD if YoY consumption is flat or -ve.
Going back to the question "what if we already know that SOFAD is 26.5K" - then we should ask ourselves is the difference because trackitt data is not quite good or is it because something else? As I keep saying .. we will know better only when 485 inventory comes out :-)
Spectator
10-07-2010, 04:03 PM
I am enjoying the discussion and the freedom to do so, which I didn't feel previously.
As Q said my figures are in line with other people's.
I too used analysis of Trackitt data to arrive at my ROW prediction. I only look at Primary applicants and have corrected them for some Country of Chargeability issues.
In FY2008 there were 608 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into 29,884 EB2-ROW approvals in the Visa Report. That is a Trackitt % of 2.0345335
In FY2009 there were 660 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into 30,093 EB2-ROW approvals in the Visa Report. That is a Trackitt % of 2.1932011
The Trackitt % has remained reasonably constant, so I have used the FY2009 figure against Trackitt approvals for FY2010.
In FY2010 there were 537 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW and EB2-NIW-ROW, which translated into a possible 24,485 ROW approvals.
That gives spill across of 6.5k. Additionally, I added a further 3K for historic under utilization by EB2-M and EB2-P.
The same confidence in the Trackitt % doesn't hold for EB1 and the figure of 28,369 produced by the 2009 % figure for FY2010 approvals looks ridiculously low by historic standards.
I had assumed 40K approvals, giving fall down of 3K.
With EB5 giving a fall down of 6K and the 6K which China and India already have, this gives available visas (SOFAD) for EB2 China and India of 6.5+3+3+6+6 = 24.5K
If Charles Oppenheim is suggesting 26.5 K, then that is still the same ball park and I would increase the EB1 spill down by 2K.
38K for EB1 seems entirely reasonable.
Of course, as everyone has said, we will only know for sure when the Visa Report is published in Jan/Feb 2011.
I will reset my forecast at that point. At present, a change from SOFAD of 24.5K to 26.5K and a reduction in porting from Teddy's 6K to Q's 4.5K only moves it from the beginning of December 2006 to Mid January 2007.
Like everyone, I am looking forward to the new USCIS Inventory for updated figures.
TeddyKoochu
10-07-2010, 04:04 PM
Granted 26.5K may be the final SOFAD. But you never know w USCIS. Also it doesn't hurt to cross check thought process. So here I go...
FB contributed approx 3K to EB1 and 2 in 2010. Lets assume for sake of simplicity reduction is 33%. Lets assume category was 39K last year and 42K this year owing to FB spillover. And lets concentrate only on one category. There is no fall-down here.
SOFAD per your definition will yield 14K(=42K-42K*(1-33%)). Per my definition will yield 16K (=39K*33%+3K). In other words all FB spillover this year contributes to SOFAD if YoY consumption is flat or -ve.
Going back to the question "what if we already know that SOFAD is 26.5K" - then we should ask ourselves is the difference because trackitt data is not quite good or is it because something else? As I keep saying .. we will know better only when 485 inventory comes out :-)
Get your point. I believe we are applying the reduction factor to different entities. Iam applying to the consumption while you are applying to the CAP.
In my approach I approximated the Consumption in 2009 to Cap in 2009 and the applied the reduction to consumption. The example that you give is that you are applying on the CAP. The Trackitt data is really consumption data, this is where I make my assumption for 2009 that consumption = Cap (This maybe entirely wrong itself). Correct me if Iam wrong we should apply the reduction to the consumption and not the Cap assuming the consumption was not curtailed by the CAP.
Lets wait for the 485 inventory, unfortunately no other data source provides the kind of breakup like Trackitt does for consumption. Here is a nice quick link to compare the inventory http://immigrationroad.com/. There is also a limitation of inventory subtraction due to PD porting, some people may just come and go to fast between inventories.
qesehmk
10-07-2010, 04:34 PM
Spec / Teddy Looks like we all are on the same page plus or minus a couple :-)
Spectator
10-07-2010, 04:44 PM
Inventory reports are inaccurate but not entirely useless. Without them I would be forecasting pretty much nothing !! However you are right that they are esp less useful for EB3. Q,
To clarify, my comment regarding the Inventory related only to EB1 and EB2-ROW. i.e. those categories that are Current.
If applications and approvals were uniform throughout the year, then you could extrapolate the data and derive the full year approvals.
That does not appear to be the case and as most EB1 and EB2 approvals are never shown as pending applications in the quarterly reports, I still believe there is little benefit in using them as a basis for forecasting these categories or category/Country combinations.
It is entirely different for Categories/Countries in retrogression - there you are working from a fixed base and the movement can then be analysed against other known or implied information.
qesehmk
10-07-2010, 04:56 PM
You are right. The solution on that problem is to use inventory as historical backlog and then category by category project how much 2011 demand will be. If you look at my first post the jpg shows the assumed 2011 demand. That way you know how much SOFAD will be available.
There is another nuance. Since USCIS publishes inventory in August and then in December .... you don't know exactly where 2009 ended at. So that creates some uncertainty in projections.
Spectator
10-08-2010, 07:51 AM
You are right. The solution on that problem is to use inventory as historical backlog and then category by category project how much 2011 demand will be. If you look at my first post the jpg shows the assumed 2011 demand. That way you know how much SOFAD will be available.
There is another nuance. Since USCIS publishes inventory in August and then in December .... you don't know exactly where 2009 ended at. So that creates some uncertainty in projections.Q,
I admit to having some difficulty (understanding) with the spreadsheet shown in the jpg (as I did with last year's ones).
To my mind, visas available to EB2-C and EB2-I would be the sum of spare visas from EB1, EB4 & EB5 Worldwide plus spare visas from EB2-ROW plus the 7% quota for EB2-C & I (6,006).
Your spreadsheet appears to show a projected total demand for EB1 in FY2011 of 24,306 , leaving 18,594 spare visas. That appears to be extremely optimistic.
Similarly, you appear to show a total demand for EB2-ROW (where ROW also includes Mexico & Philippines) in FY2011 for EB2-ROW of 14,116 , leaving 22,778 spare visas. Again, that seems extremely optimistic.
Total spare visas would therefore be 18,594 (EB1) + 22,778 (EB2-ROW) + 650 (EB4) + 6,425 (EB5) = 48,447. SOFAD would therefore be 48,447 + 6,006 = 54,453.
That does not seem realistic and is not in line with the 25K that you mention in your first post. The 25,668 highlighted in the spreadsheet only represents spare visas from EB1, EB4 and EB5 - it ignores the EB2-ROW contribution.
If my reading of your spreadsheet is incorrect, I think you need to educate me on how to read it, as otherwise I feel totally confused.
admin
10-08-2010, 08:14 AM
I think you are reading it right. But please refer to the post again. I have made exactly the same point you are making. Which is that the model is showing very optimistic numbers - WHY? The answer is "We do not know, will know better when new inventory is published."!!
The model of course could be adjusted for 2011 new demand. Also we could add a factor to take care of conversions. But none of those two things matter much because first we need to understand why in 2010 the actual SOFAD almost came to the lower end of the projections.
Spectator
10-08-2010, 09:28 AM
Yes, you're correct, the text in the first post does make that clear.
Thanks for clarifying the situation.
I found the title "Annual Visa Availability Towards Backlog - ~25K" confusing, which implied that was what the document was trying to show.
Perhaps it should be changed to "Annual Visa Availability Towards Backlog - ~48K" to avoid further confusion.
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 09:35 AM
Yes. That makes senses. Thank you. Updated the head of thread.
srini1976
10-08-2010, 10:13 AM
Hi Q & T,
The new inventory report has been released. Please see below.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202010.pdf
You can now validate your predictions.
Thanks for all your services.
Cheers,
Srini
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 10:35 AM
Thanks srini. This is great. At a quick look .... look at what happened to EB2-ROW ... on the -ve side they received boatload of new applications. On the +ve side the demand in ROW is hardly 5K per year. So in 2011 we will have hardly 13K ROW total demand - which means there should be about 20-25K SOFAD from EB2-ROW alone.
p.s. - Also note the date is 1st Oct - which makes predictions much easire because now the inventory is perfectly aligned w USCIS calendar.
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 11:28 AM
Guys
If ROW NEW demand is 5K per year (which makes perfect sense in this economy) then there should ve been much more SOFAD. That's the question one might ask intuitively. Lets cross check w Macro Picture.
Current Overall EB inventory ~170K (A)
Dec 09 Overall EB inventory ~225K (B)
2010 EB1 NEW Demand - (C)
2010 ROW EB2 NEW Demand - (D)
2010 EB3-EB2 conversions - (E)
2010 quota - 150K (F)
2010 CP Backlog - 6K (G)
So theoretically we should see
F = (B - A) + C + D + E + G
i.e. 150 = 55 + C + D +E + 6
i.e. 89 = C + D + E
Since C + D was 26K less (according to CO) than their quota that means they were at 84-26 = 58.
That gives us 89 = 58 + E
which would make E i.e. conversions at 31K which is obviously ridiculous.
So that only points us in one direction that USCIS probably wasted some visas.
Or may be I am missing something... come on guys tear this apart.
srini1976
10-08-2010, 11:49 AM
Q,
I am EB2 (India), My PD is Jan 26, 2007. What are my chances for getting Green during July - Sep 2011 period? or when do you think I have a good chance?
Cheers,
Srini
compassion111
10-08-2010, 12:40 PM
How are you All?
Its good to see USCIS has accepted our request / recommendation to publish Inventory data based on Quarter end and 1st of Month.
Lets See Inventory Reduction for EB China / India during Last FY 2010. We know this is not perfect as We have Some data from FY 2009 also.
We have Seen Nice reduction of Around EB2 - China/India = 31403 & EB3 China/India = 8194.
So for FY-2011 We need 35658 to remove Inventory, Sounds we need more then FY-2010.
China India
As on 8/28/2009 As on 10/01/2010 Net Reduction As on 8/28/2009 As on 10/01/2010 Reduction Used Required
EB1 607 1053 -446 718 1410 -692
EB2 19333 11404 7929 47728 24254 23474 31403 35658
EB3 6343 4116 2227 62607 56640 5967 8194 60756
EB4 384 4 380 123 18 105 485 22
EB5 13 0 13 13 10 3
Other (EW) 30 21 9 107 79 28
Spectator
10-08-2010, 12:45 PM
I'm just going to reply to the comment:
If ROW NEW demand is 5K per year (which makes perfect sense in this economy) then there should ve been much more SOFAD.
This goes back to my comment about trying to analyse the Inventory Data for categories that are Current.
You cannot surmise that ROW demand is 5K per year. The majority of approved cases for that Category never appear in the Inventory Report.
You can only surmise that there are 5K "difficult" cases that are taking much longer to approve than the normal processing time.
Possibly they have added some District Office cases, although they haven't updated the explanation to say so. So, probably not. Just a case of more "unknown" cases at the Service Centers.
Alternatively and quite likely, we know from Trackitt data that ROW approvals "dry up" in the last quarter of a fiscal year and USCIS concentrate on allocating the spare visas to China and India.
It would not be particularly surprising to see a relatively big backlog for 01 Oct data because of this effect. Trackitt also shows an explosion of ROW approvals when the new FY gets underway.
At a stretch, you might claim that the total pending cases in a Report gives a handle on the demand for a 3 month period between reports. I am not a fan of this either.
But let's do that and use the average pending amounts over the 5 Inventory Reports published so far.
Average Pending EB2-ROW = 6,118
Average Pending EB2-Mexico = 190
Average Pending EB2-Philippines = 523
Average Pending EB2 (excluding China & India) = 6,831
Since that is for 3 months, multiply by 4 for yearly total = 27,324
Whilst I have my doubts about using this approach, it does at least give a result that we know is in the ball park of historical accuracy.
If USCIS decide to have a clear out of cases just prior to the Inventory publication, then all and any bets are off since it distorts the figures.
Looking at EB1 Worldwide in the same way gives a demand of 15,287 for the year.
I don't believe that figure in the light of all other evidence to the contrary and, whilst the EB2-ROW-M-P figure might look reasonable, it therefore can't be trusted either.
So, I will reiterate my view (probably annoyingly :) ) that the value of the Inventory Reports in gleaning useful information for EB1 and EB2 Current Countries is extremely dubious.
At least it is a discussion point and it explains in part why I strongly hold that view.
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 01:11 PM
This is useful. If we plug this 4K conversions in my simple formula on earlier page then we have about 26K unexplained visas that we don't know where they went!
I believe PD porting for india was ~4K last year.
compassion, welcome. i am not sure if I doing something wrong but EB2IC reduction turns out to be 22K - not 31K as you say below. pls check again.
We have Seen Nice reduction of Around EB2 - China/India = 31403 & EB3 China/India = 8194.
please see embeded...
You can only surmise that there are 5K "difficult" cases that are taking much longer to approve than the normal processing time....
difficult cases theory is good. But that doesn't explain why we don't see 1000s cases for recent months. On the other hand yes there are difficult cases but they are from years behind. As far as 2009 or 2010 goes they are all legitimate cases of recently approved PERMs that came into inventory recently. Lower 2010 cases suggest that low number of PERM are approved for 2010 for ROW EB2. So it is safe to take 500 (which is the max number) in inventory and extrapolate to get total annual demand. What I missed was although annulized demand is 5K, in 2010 multiple years of annual demand hit. They already had 2007. But then they received 2008-full/09-full/10-partial. However even if we asssume it was 5-8K per year.. that gives us 15-24 max. Then take out 9K that is today that still says that EB2ROW only ate 6-15K max in 2010.
.....
But let's do that and use the average pending amounts over the 5 Inventory Reports published so far.
Average Pending EB2-ROW = 6,118
Average Pending EB2-Mexico = 190
Average Pending EB2-Philippines = 523
Average Pending EB2 (excluding China & India) = 6,831
Since that is for 3 months, multiply by 4 for yearly total = 27,324 This is difficult to agree to because difficult demand stays there for all 12 months. whereas only the flow-through demand should be qualified for annualization. Right?
Whilst I have my doubts about using this approach, it does at least give a result that we know is in the ball park of historical accuracy.
If USCIS decide to have a clear out of cases just prior to the Inventory publication, then all and any bets are off since it distorts the figures.
Looking at EB1 Worldwide in the same way gives a demand of 15,287 for the year.
I don't believe that figure in the light of all other evidence to the contrary and, whilst the EB2-ROW-M-P figure might look reasonable, it therefore can't be trusted either.
So, I will reiterate my view (probably annoyingly :) )
Don't worry at all. This is all good discussion!
TeddyKoochu
10-08-2010, 02:09 PM
[QUOTE=qesehmk;46]This is useful. If we plug this 4K conversions in my simple formula on earlier page then we have about 26K unexplained visas that we don't know where they went!
Q I believe that the Inventory of Dec 2009 and Sep 2010 are different entities. There was some talk and reports that everything currently not in the inventory like NVC, district offices etc except for CP will be put into it because it is ultimately USCIS that would transfer cases to these other entities. If you consider this then your discrepancy will become smaller. Also see that the inventory is ~ 35K and last month’s demand data is ~ 34K which seem to be closer.
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 02:40 PM
Q,
I am EB2 (India), My PD is Jan 26, 2007. What are my chances for getting Green during July - Sep 2011 period? or when do you think I have a good chance?
Cheers,
Srini
I think it is close to 100%
vikram2101
10-08-2010, 02:53 PM
stuck for two months on May 08 :(
srini1976
10-08-2010, 04:41 PM
I think it is close to 100%
Thank you.
TeddyKoochu
10-08-2010, 04:59 PM
No change for EB2-I. Looks like they are giving 250 PM, that is why EB3-I and EB2-C moved by a week each. For EB2-I unfortunately there is backlog per the inventory before May 2006. Without any spillover this may well be the situation really till whenever it happens.
qesehmk
10-08-2010, 07:45 PM
stuck for two months on May 08 :(
If there were no porting then January bulletin would certainly have movement. Given that there is 4K annual porting and conservatively assumign that 50% is India, then that plus backlog through May 06 is 3K which is equivalent to annual EB2I max allocation. So unfortunately you could very well be in a long wait unfortunately.
I am sorry to say this. However if Qly spillover is applied this year then it could be a matter of 2-3 months from now. Good luck!
shishya
10-09-2010, 11:00 AM
EB2-I, PD: May 24th, 2006. Filed I-485: Sept 2008 (for self only), got married Feb 2009, wife on H4 and hence can't use EAD that I already have.
(i) Does anyone know the procedure if I were to change jobs now? (No change in field, title etc). I cannot move to using the EAD since my wife is a dependent on my H1 -- so I will need a H1 transfer. Would the new company have to reapply for my labor etc? What happens to my current application given I already have an EAD with it?
(ii) I guess nobody knows if quarterly spillover will happen/happens generally? I don't think we saw it happen last year? Given I am just TWO WEEKS away, could I be realistically expecting the date to get current in Dec? Jan? :( :(
Any help/pointers would be great. Thank you!
compassion111
10-11-2010, 01:17 PM
No Demand Data Document, is the Process Changed?
No change for EB2-I. Looks like they are giving 250 PM, that is why EB3-I and EB2-C moved by a week each. For EB2-I unfortunately there is backlog per the inventory before May 2006. Without any spillover this may well be the situation really till whenever it happens.
No Demand Data Document, is the Process Changed?
I think that going forward, demand data document will not be published. Rather, USCIS will publish monthly I-485 inventory report. I may be wrong...this is just a guess!
qesehmk
10-11-2010, 06:09 PM
EB2-I, PD: May 24th, 2006. Filed I-485: Sept 2008 (for self only), got married Feb 2009, wife on H4 and hence can't use EAD that I already have.
(i) Does anyone know the procedure if I were to change jobs now? (No change in field, title etc). I cannot move to using the EAD since my wife is a dependent on my H1 -- so I will need a H1 transfer. Would the new company have to reapply for my labor etc? What happens to my current application given I already have an EAD with it?
(ii) I guess nobody knows if quarterly spillover will happen/happens generally? I don't think we saw it happen last year? Given I am just TWO WEEKS away, could I be realistically expecting the date to get current in Dec? Jan? :( :(
Any help/pointers would be great. Thank you!
shishya, I think your wife should be able to file 485 once the date is current. I think for you the date should become current 6 months from now. Qly spillover would be nice but don't rely on that.
qesehmk
10-11-2010, 07:18 PM
Guys .. I have updated head of the thread based on latest USCIS inventory and visa bulletin. Good luck!
p.s. - EB3 guys I will update EB3 thread by tomorrow.
collhyd
10-11-2010, 10:14 PM
My EB2 Priority date is Feb 28,2008 Any guess when my date will be current. Thanks in advance.
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 08:34 AM
My EB2 Priority date is Feb 28,2008 Any guess when my date will be current. Thanks in advance.
By Sep 2012 you will have GC. The date should be current by mar 12.
punjabi
10-12-2010, 09:27 AM
Hi qeshmrk -I hate to make you play this prediction game but so much needs to be planned for my life so asking you same qs --My Pd is nov 2008 ( Eb2) . How long more you think I have to wait or I should just go back home ( been here since 99)
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 09:36 AM
Hi qeshmrk -I hate to make you play this prediction game but so much needs to be planned for my life so asking you same qs --My Pd is nov 2008 ( Eb2) . How long more you think I have to wait or I should just go back home ( been here since 99)
Hello punjabi, between your date and Jul 07 there are about 14K people. Coupled w 12K residual at the end of sep 2011 that is approx 26K. I would say the chances of you getting GC by Sep 12 are more than 70-80%. Sep 13 100%. Going back is a very personal decision. Hard to say what you should do. But I would ask this: Is pursuit of GC keeping you from following your dream? If so then may be GC is not that worth. If you are already working on your own projects at work or home that satisfy your dream, then GC is just a milestone and it will come in a matter of 2 years (max 3 years).
punjabi
10-12-2010, 10:31 AM
Thanks qeshmk. You are awesome . I think you should also consider a career in personal coaching ( just my opinion- look at how well you explained my situation!!!! ) Thanks buddy!!!!!!
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 10:53 AM
Thanks qeshmk. You are awesome . I think you should also consider a career in personal coaching ( just my opinion- look at how well you explained my situation!!!! ) Thanks buddy!!!!!!
You are very welcome Punjabi. Best wishes.
Spectator I saw a post from you but now its gone. I think you made some suggestions to change the layout of information. I would be happy to improve. Let me know if so.
TeddyKoochu
10-12-2010, 10:58 AM
The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 11:04 AM
The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.
Teddy thanks and agree but i wouldn't be as hard in terms of hopes being dashed. On the contrary I feel much better that ROW is now current-current (485 and labor). Pls refer to the top of the thread that I have updated.
Spectator
10-12-2010, 11:06 AM
Spectator I saw a post from you but now its gone. I think you made some suggestions to change the layout of information. I would be happy to improve. Let me know if so.I had a typo in the attachment which I wanted to correct.
Currently I don't seem to be able to upload the corrected file using the upload manager.
I will try later. Hopefully I will have better luck then.
Spectator
10-12-2010, 11:46 AM
The bad news however is that in 2011 FB spillover is absent (at least so far we haven't heard anything). That takes away 10K compared to last year. Otherwise the EB2 backlog would be cleared through Jun-Jul 2007.The fact that DOS stopped allocating FB visas 2 weeks early wasn't a great sign - I agree.
I think the jury is still out on this one.
The VB always uses the term:
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
until around July/August, when USCIS finally give DOS the information they need to make a proper determination.
Quite why it takes USCIS so long is beyond me.
We should know for sure in Jan/Feb 2011, when the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published.
Let's hope it is good news.
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 12:07 PM
The fact that DOS stopped allocating FB visas 2 weeks early wasn't a great sign - I agree.
I think the jury is still out on this one.
The VB always uses the term:
until around July/August, when USCIS finally give DOS the information they need to make a proper determination.
Quite why it takes USCIS so long is beyond me.
We should know for sure in Jan/Feb 2011, when the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published.
Let's hope it is good news.
Thanks. I think it would be wise to not rely on any FB spillover when predicting 2011.
TeddyKoochu
10-12-2010, 12:10 PM
Teddy thanks and agree but i wouldn't be as hard in terms of hopes being dashed. On the contrary I feel much better that ROW is now current-current (485 and labor). Pls refer to the top of the thread that I have updated.
Thanks Q I went through the first post, lets hope for EB2 ROW to be as it is. Hoping for the best. On the FB I was just hoping that we could have atleast the same as last year though, if the news is true then its certainly is bad news though; but yes your predictions for EB2 ROW demand make up this deficit. Also did you notice something else the demand data for Nov VB is less than the inventory for Oct, this leads me to believe that all pending prior to May 06 have a cap number assigned, this might help to increase the predictions.
Spectator
10-12-2010, 12:24 PM
Q,
Thanks for the latest prediction.
It took me a while to get my head around it Perhaps I was having a senior moment!
I think I now know what the figures are saying and I had a suggestion as to how the presentation could be tweaked slightly.
I think the revision shows more clearly the total usage of visas, the spare visas available, where they came from and the projected SOFAD.
The layout more closely matches your commentary and makes it easier (at least for me) to see where the figures are coming from.
It is of course just a personal observation and is meant to be constructive. :)
If I am reading the spreadsheet incorrectly, please (and I am sure you will) correct me.
PS My problems regarding uploading seem to be related to IE9 Beta, which I am using on the other computer. :(
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 12:46 PM
Teddy / Spec
Good inputs. Thanks. Will update the thread soon!.
Thanks Q I went through the first post, lets hope for EB2 ROW to be as it is. Hoping for the best. On the FB I was just hoping that we could have atleast the same as last year though, if the news is true then its certainly is bad news though; but yes your predictions for EB2 ROW demand make up this deficit. Also did you notice something else the demand data for Nov VB is less than the inventory for Oct, this leads me to believe that all pending prior to May 06 have a cap number assigned, this might help to increase the predictions.
Q,
Thanks for the latest prediction.
It took me a while to get my head around it Perhaps I was having a senior moment!
I think I now know what the figures are saying and I had a suggestion as to how the presentation could be tweaked slightly.
I think the revision shows more clearly the total usage of visas, the spare visas available, where they came from and the projected SOFAD.
The layout more closely matches your commentary and makes it easier (at least for me) to see where the figures are coming from.
It is of course just a personal observation and is meant to be constructive. :)
If I am reading the spreadsheet incorrectly, please (and I am sure you will) correct me.
PS My problems regarding uploading seem to be related to IE9 Beta, which I am using on the other computer. :(
operas
10-12-2010, 03:00 PM
Thanks for your great analysis. My priority date is Feb 25 2010, I have my I 140 approved, when can I expect to file my 485 and approximately when will I have my greencard in hand ?
Thanks
TeddyKoochu
10-12-2010, 03:29 PM
Guys I did some research on Trackitt to see EB2 ROW approvals for Oct.
Oct 2009 - 173
Oct 2010 - 33
Now the drop in Eb2 ROW usage is pretty huge and potentially this could add 15-16K more SOFAD to us. Here's today’s equation.
15-16K added due to ROW decline
6.6K lost due to FB
1.5K added becoz cases prior to May 2006 will use last years cap.
All in All around 10K extra SOFAD is expected. Guys don't bank on this for now however we should wait to see the approvals data till another quarter to be judgmental. However the trend is great for us. 10K extra means 4 months of movement which may mean a date of 01-MAY-2007 (Optimistic).
Spectator
10-12-2010, 03:38 PM
Guys I did some research on that website to see EB2 ROW approvals for Oct.
Teddy,
I think you can call it TRACKITT here. ;) No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!
Now the drop in Eb2 ROW usage is pretty huge and potentially this could add 15-16K more SOFAD to us.
It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes! :D
TeddyKoochu
10-12-2010, 03:47 PM
Teddy,
I think you can call it TRACKITT here. ;) No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!
It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes! :D
Spectator I agree lets acknowledge that this data is from TRACKITT (Old habbit :)). I agree that its premature and only mid month but the trend is fairly decisive, here is EB1.
Following are the figures for EB1, the approval rate decline is even more dramatic.
EB1 A - 2
Eb1 B - 0
EB1 C - 2
EB1-A - 26
EB1-B - 44
EB1C - 38
I believe that we should keep observing this trend over time and we will have higer SOFAD this year much higher even without FB. It could possibly be 45K which could wipe out all backlog prior to Aug 2007.
Teddy,
I think you can call it TRACKITT here. ;) No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!
Good One !
TeddyKoochu
10-12-2010, 03:58 PM
Good One !
Guys I edited my post to acknowledge "TRACKITT" :), do comment on the approvals trend even though its just half a month (Multiply 2010 by 2 or even 3) it looks pretty decisive.
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 06:12 PM
Updated the header of the thread based on Spec's inputs. Thanks Specs.
Teddy, regarding your trackitt observation - first of all its ok to call out TRACKITT. But its not ok to call out that other website !! Oink Oink !! Just kidding!! You can call out anything you want. Our purpose is to bring clarity. Which way it comes doesn't really matter.
But on another note - next week I am going to list a bollywood poem just to lighten up that thread!! Its getting quite heady. Any suggestions? Anybody? I am thinking of "Pappu Can't Dance Sala"!! :-) Kidding again!! But that little cheat indeed tried to smear my name .... so i might as well be serious.
Anyway ... getting back to more value added topics ...
Teddy looking at trackitt appproval trend would be waaaaaayyyy tooooo early. I would recommend it after Q1 i.e in January. Secondly you mentioned that visa demand data is lower than inventory. Well that's always the case. Because demand data relates to only APPROVABLE CASES. Many cases are not mature enough and are not reported to DOS. So we shouldn't read too much into that data point.
Teddy,
I think you can call it TRACKITT here. ;) No one will delete or edit your post for such a heinous crime!
It' a bit early to extrapolate that sort of conclusion. At least wait until the month finishes! :D
Thanks for your great analysis. My priority date is Feb 25 2010, I have my I 140 approved, when can I expect to file my 485 and approximately when will I have my greencard in hand ?
Thanks
This will be an extremely wild guess. There are about 57K in backlog today. Between Jul-07 and your date there are approx 45K more. Plus I would expect 15-20K EB3 conversions. So we are in 120K neighborhood. At 25K SOFAD per year we are talking 5 years from now for you to get your GC.
In general for EB2 5 years wait since PD is a very decent timeframe. So sit back and relax!
p.s. - When would the date be current depends on USCIS doing another round of 2007 fiasco. If that happens it will probably happen around Sep 2011. But that's is tougher to predict. GCPerm (jai shrikrishna!) spent a lifetime claiming that floodgates are going to open. So there are good people thinking that it will actually happen sometime. Not sure when exactly!
tarz1309
10-12-2010, 08:53 PM
Q,
Thanks for starting this blog.
Legal Immigration itself is such a convoluted process that weakens the roots of hairs, having bunch of shams running a blog for information & exchange added to the woes.
Looking forward to rational, logical & free exchange in this blog.
qesehmk
10-12-2010, 09:20 PM
tarz, thanks.
We can certainly take credit for helping some people by running this same thread on IV. No other thread was even gathering a small fraction of daily views this one was. That speaks to the value people received.
What I was personally disappointed with was IV's animosity towards other immigration websites. Thats the reason we came here. Over here people are welcome to refer to any other site and bring useful information from wherever it belongs without plageurizing (pardon my spelling) and without infringing on anybody's copyright.
Q,
Thanks for starting this blog.
Legal Immigration itself is such a convoluted process that weakens the roots of hairs, having bunch of shams running a blog for information & exchange added to the woes.
Looking forward to rational, logical & free exchange in this blog.
tarz1309
10-13-2010, 12:13 AM
Q,
& I was disappointed that this thread in IV was restricted to donors after more than 2 million views. The intentions were amply clear to grab as much as donations in the garb of volunteering.
Once again thanks for taking this pain to host this blog & the admin work involved in doing this.
qesehmk
10-13-2010, 12:37 AM
I think we can learn from that and ensure openness and respectful environment here. However we still wish IV the best.
Q,
& I was disappointed that this thread in IV was restricted to donors after more than 2 million views. The intentions were amply clear to grab as much as donations in the garb of volunteering.
Once again thanks for taking this pain to host this blog & the admin work involved in doing this.
TeddyKoochu
10-13-2010, 09:28 AM
Thanks Q my responses inline.
Teddy, regarding your trackitt observation - first of all its ok to call out TRACKITT. But its not ok to call out that other website !! Oink Oink !! Just kidding!! You can call out anything you want. Our purpose is to bring clarity. Which way it comes doesn't really matter.
But on another note - next week I am going to list a bollywood poem just to lighten up that thread!! Its getting quite heady. Any suggestions? Anybody? I am thinking of "Pappu Can't Dance Sala"!! :-) Kidding again!! But that little cheat indeed tried to smear my name .... so i might as well be serious.
Congrats on creating a platform where free speech is accepted and where atleast one can honestly and respectfully call and acknowledge the source of data. For me and all others who are on your blog you are the winner (Both on merit & truth). In this information and in internet age distorting facts is not easy and the exposure can be extremely embarrassing it destroys all goodwill in a single shot.
Anyway ... getting back to more value added topics ...
Teddy looking at trackitt appproval trend would be waaaaaayyyy tooooo early. I would recommend it after Q1 i.e in January. Secondly you mentioned that visa demand data is lower than inventory. Well that's always the case. Because demand data relates to only APPROVABLE CASES. Many cases are not mature enough and are not reported to DOS. So we shouldn't read too much into that data point.
Coming to the demand data I believe that there is a catch yes it shows documentarily qualified candidates but only those waiting for a visa number. Now the inventory is kind of sand witched between the Oct and Nov demand data and really the demand data should be a superset of the inventory. Both the demand data's showed ~ 34K which the inventory is standing out at 35K, this leads me to believe that the 1200 folks prior to May 2006 do not show on the demand data because they already have a cap number assigned to their cases. I had read on Ron's blog a few days back wherein there was a report that the inventory would contain the cases for district offices and NVC as well, looks like this is the case now.
With regards the Trackitt trend I also believe that it’s early days (I also said it :)) but just like elections sometimes early leads if narrow can be completely wrong but if the trend is something like 1/3rd for EB2 ROW and almost nothing for EB1 it could well be a good sneak peek. Agree that we should check after a quarter. The trackitt trend kind of justifies you assumption of the EB2 ROW demand this year.
TeddyKoochu
10-13-2010, 09:32 AM
The latest demand data has some bad news for us the table shows the cap as 140K so probably no FB spillover for this year. Q I believe that this dashes any chances whatsoever of the dates reaching 01-AUG-2007, also I believe that the SOFAD that we should consider changes from 26.5 K to 20K and this would only take is to the end of 2006 (01-JAN-2007) conservative.
Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.
qesehmk
10-13-2010, 10:30 AM
Teddy Regarding demand data being a superset .... that is true for dates that are current. Isn't it. For dates that are not current it doesn't matter. So a lot of EB2IC cases are not even reported to DOS. Hope this helps clarify.
Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.
:-) hope so. May be they will have better idea after 2010 report is published.
TeddyKoochu
10-13-2010, 10:45 AM
Teddy Regarding demand data being a superset .... that is true for dates that are current. Isn't it. For dates that are not current it doesn't matter. So a lot of EB2IC cases are not even reported to DOS. Hope this helps clarify.
:-) hope so. May be they will have better idea after 2010 report is published.
Thinking this over a little further, when the dates are current like EB2 ROW there is more likelihood that since the cases are not pre-adjudicated then Inventory will be greater than demand data. Refer current inventory and demand data for EB2 ROW.
For retrogressed countries almost all cases are preadjudicated so they should appear on the inventory and demand data both.
- New filings like dependants will not show up on demand data but on inventory as they are WIP, but this should be less that 500.
- The 1200 odd cases prior to May 2006 my hypothesis (maybe wring) have a cap number associated to them and hence they are on the inventory and not on the demand data. A lot of these people got RFE's at a bad time.
Now since the numbers are small either could be a superset but with this info of inventory > demand data Iam just guessing that the 1200 odd cases will go from last years cap, however no VB movement in the 2 months is giving an indicator to the contrary.
Spectator
10-13-2010, 10:54 AM
Q,
Sorry to be a pain.
I have poured over your spreadsheet and have found a few minor errors:
a) The quota for EB5-ROW should be 7,852 to reflect China having no allocation per the DOS Demand text.
b) The quota for EB3-China should be reduced by 300 and EB3-ROW should be increased accordingly. See Demand Data text for the reasons.
c) The figure of 8,547 for EB1 FA Given appears too high. Shouldn't the figure just be the sum of EB1-China (2,905) and EB1-India (3,856) for a total of 6,761. I'm not sure where the extra 1,786 has come from.
The spreadsheet still doesn't show the most important figures of how many spare visas are available to EB2-C & EB2-I and therefore SOFAD.
This can be derived from your SOFAD table by adding an extra row.
At the simplest level, spare visas are: (Using the figures from your spreadsheet)
i) Unused visas from EB5 = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 9,940 - 23 - 4,218 = 5,699
ii) Unused visas from EB1 = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 40,040 - 11,223 - 20,271 = 8,546
iii) Unused visas from EB2-Current (ROW, M, P) = Quota - Existing backlog - Projected Demand = 34,435 - 13,912 - 8,192 = 12,331
That give a total number of spare visas of 26,576 and SOFAD of 26,576 + 2,803 + 2,803 = 32,182
I think it is important that both the spare visas and SOFAD are shown in your presentation jpg to bring clarity to the figures.
The attachment shows the amendments and revisions discussed above for your consideration. If you can't work out how the figures are derived, just ask, although I think that shouldn't be a problem to you.
qesehmk
10-13-2010, 12:47 PM
Guys I will update header based on Spec's suggestions by evening. Thanks a ton to him for his suggestions.
Meanwhile, just now receievd an update from one of our source into USCIS reconfirming that most of pre-may-06 is cleared and EB2I is getting about 300 per month! Also another reconfirmation of what we have been saying that there is no Qly spillover for EB2IC. So those w PDs in July-august 06, should plan for 9 months of wait instead of hoping to get a GC immediately.
operas
10-13-2010, 02:22 PM
Thanks for your analysis Q!
seand
10-13-2010, 03:14 PM
Glad to be a member here... don't forget the EB ROW folks :)
leo07
10-13-2010, 04:06 PM
Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.
TK, FB spill over was evident right from August 28 2009 inventory data. So, I think, it's very much safe to exclude the FB spill over from analysis.
On another point, did you guys notice the increase in demand in EB1 & EB2 ROW from 2009 ( and corresponding drop in EB3)?
I know both could have a deep impact on our dates.
TeddyKoochu
10-13-2010, 05:49 PM
TK, FB spill over was evident right from August 28 2009 inventory data. So, I think, it's very much safe to exclude the FB spill over from analysis.
On another point, did you guys notice the increase in demand in EB1 & EB2 ROW from 2009 ( and corresponding drop in EB3)?
I know both could have a deep impact on our dates.
I agree with you on FB, it is just hoping against hope for now, we should assume its not there. The rise in cases for 2009 I believe can be attributed to reasons a) For EB1 & EB2 ROW cases the I140 approvals are still taking time, most of the people find non-concurrent filing safer. b) Looks like everybody is now filing in EB2 c) Reduction in EB3 could indicate porting or withdrawal (Withdrawal is more common amongst ROW). Also I believe that a good number of cases may belong to people from countries of interest. Some of the 2009 cases I also believe are either denial with MTR filed or with complicated RFE's because the approval timeline really is 4 months. All the old inventories also seem to show figures in the same range, however we should not assume that all of them will lead to approvals probably 70-80% only IMHO.
qesehmk
10-13-2010, 07:46 PM
Spec you are a good pain :) Thanks. I updated header based on your inputs. Also revised EB1 new demand in 2011. It seems Mexico is a good consumer of EB1 visas.
Q,
Sorry to be a pain.
I have poured over your spreadsheet and have found a few minor errors:
Thanks for your analysis Q! You are welcome!
Glad to be a member here... don't forget the EB ROW folks :) We won't ... but in case you are looking for EB3 ROW then you are on wrong thread!! You should look at "EB3 Predictions and Calculations". For EB2 ROW is current and so not much needs to be said. Welcome nonetheless!
leo07
10-14-2010, 10:33 AM
I agree that all of them will not lead to approvals. Nevertheless it's a increase in demand by 0.7 * X or 0.8 X or decrease in SOFAD by the same amount. ( other factors remaining constant)
I agree with you on FB, it is just hoping against hope for now, we should assume its not there. The rise in cases for 2009 I believe can be attributed to reasons a) For EB1 & EB2 ROW cases the I140 approvals are still taking time, most of the people find non-concurrent filing safer. b) Looks like everybody is now filing in EB2 c) Reduction in EB3 could indicate porting or withdrawal (Withdrawal is more common amongst ROW). Also I believe that a good number of cases may belong to people from countries of interest. Some of the 2009 cases I also believe are either denial with MTR filed or with complicated RFE's because the approval timeline really is 4 months. All the old inventories also seem to show figures in the same range, however we should not assume that all of them will lead to approvals probably 70-80% only IMHO.
TeddyKoochu
10-14-2010, 12:07 PM
I agree that all of them will not lead to approvals. Nevertheless it's a increase in demand by 0.7 * X or 0.8 X or decrease in SOFAD by the same amount. ( other factors remaining constant)
I agree with you we should consider say .75X of each of these as starting demand or backlog, on the face values these figures do look high.
TeddyKoochu
10-14-2010, 12:13 PM
Source The OH law firm
The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)
Read - 10/14/2010: USCIS Pre-Registration Requirement Rule-Making Agenda in Nonimmigrant and Immigrant Proceedings - How Soon?
This provision can help those of us waiting to file for 485 (Probably we may get EAD/AP also), it also helps the agencies to define the pipeline and predict the demand better. It is good provision for EB2 Retrogressed Countries. Don’t bank on this provision friends because the news on this provision has been circulating for atleast a year, we can just hope that it will be implemented.
Spectator
10-14-2010, 12:58 PM
Spec you are a good pain :) Thanks. I updated header based on your inputs.
Q,
Great job with the spreadsheet!
I think it really delivers the information.
One tiny point - shouldn't IC Consumption (SOFAD) for EB4 be 3,329 rather than 888?
I just wanted to say what a good job you have done.
qesehmk
10-14-2010, 01:57 PM
Q,
Great job with the spreadsheet!
I think it really delivers the information.
One tiny point - shouldn't IC Consumption (SOFAD) for EB4 be 3,329 rather than 888?
I just wanted to say what a good job you have done.
Spec thanks. In EB4 there are other countries that are getting benefited because of spare visas.
leo07
10-14-2010, 02:34 PM
Thanks for the calculations. Looks like it'll reach April-May 2007 for EB2-I/C safely. ( anything more will be a buffer from CIS or some other unknown factors coming into play)
Q, can you also post your predictions on the first page? ( not sure if you omitted that on purpose:))
qesehmk
10-14-2010, 02:46 PM
Thanks for the calculations. Looks like it'll reach April-May 2007 for EB2-I/C safely. ( anything more will be a buffer from CIS or some other unknown factors coming into play)
Q, can you also post your predictions on the first page? ( not sure if you omitted that on purpose:))
Leo, I have included prediction in the header (first page of thread). So not sure why you can't see it. 27K SOFAD is applicable to 485+CP inventory. Right now I have assumed CP inventory of about 6-7K which is why 27K SOFAD can only take us through Feb 07. Makes sense?
leo07
10-14-2010, 02:52 PM
my bad. I did not read the summary. I was expecting to see a section "EB2 Prediction: Feb 2007 by September 2011"
TeddyKoochu
10-14-2010, 03:01 PM
Leo, I have included prediction in the header (first page of thread). So not sure why you can't see it. 27K SOFAD is applicable to 485+CP inventory. Right now I have assumed CP inventory of about 6-7K which is why 27K SOFAD can only take us through Feb 07. Makes sense?
Q, I believe that the CP assumption is very high, 6-7K is almost 20% of the inventory. I believe the CP would be only 10% max of the inventory as very few companies are going for the future job offer thing Iam sure strictest scrutiny is happening for these cases especially at home country. Last year when the CP was being calculated I remember VIN13 had shown the CP for EB2 in some document as 2K only and assuming some of the folks got approved EB2 I/C CP should be 1.5K max closer to 5% which seems more realistic. The extra numbers may aid the movement by 2 months. Please advise if this seems ok to you.
On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.
Spectator
10-14-2010, 03:05 PM
Spec thanks. In EB4 there are other countries that are getting benefited because of spare visas.
Sorry, I wasn't thinking very clearly at the time.
My bad this time.
I understand the derivation now as the sum of backlog + demand for IC, a figure that doesn't even reach the quota. That last point caused me to jump to conclusions, rather than properly analyzing what the figure really meant.
Sorry about that.
qesehmk
10-14-2010, 03:19 PM
my bad. I did not read the summary. I was expecting to see a section "EB2 Prediction: Feb 2007 by September 2011"
Actually thanks. I made a minor update to the header so that people can immediate get it!
Q, I believe that the CP assumption is very high, 6-7K is almost 20% of the inventory. I believe the CP would be only 10% max of the inventory as very few companies are going for the future job offer thing Iam sure strictest scrutiny is happening for these cases especially at home country. Last year when the CP was being calculated I remember VIN13 had shown the CP for EB2 in some document as 2K only and assuming some of the folks got approved EB2 I/C CP should be 1.5K max closer to 5% which seems more realistic. The extra numbers may aid the movement by 2 months. Please advise if this seems ok to you.
On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.
Teddy you don't have to estimate CP. It is provided as part of NVC inventory. Are you aware of NVC?
6-7K I used was from last year's inventory. Its possible that it has gone down. But since latest NVC inventory is not published I am using 2009 one. If anything this makes our estimates conservative. USCIS has said it previously that CP is typically 15% of total adjustments.
Sorry, I wasn't thinking very clearly at the time.
My bad this time.
I understand the derivation now as the sum of backlog + demand for IC, a figure that doesn't even reach the quota. That last point caused me to jump to conclusions, rather than properly analyzing what the figure really meant.
Sorry about that.
Take it easy!! The objective of forum is to bring clarity - so as long as we are doing that .... none of us needs to be sorry.
qesehmk
10-14-2010, 03:38 PM
CLICK HERE FOR NVC INVENTORY REPORT (http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html) - Look for Annual visa waiting list.
This report is published in Nov 09. So not entirely valid. But still useful.
Please note the inventory I have published at the top of the threader assumes 485 + CP + PWMB + Portings.
CP inventory follows the same timeline as 485 since visa dates are same for both. Hope this helps!
Q if you have a link of the NVC inventory for last year request you to post it. Does the NVC inventory just like the 485 inventory cases till 2007 only then we can assume that 40% is done and 60% is left. Also what component is EB2. If we have say 6K CP inventory just for EB2 then it makes the situation quite bad. I will try to search for what VIN13 had said. I agree with you that it makes the prediction conservative.
On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.
tarz1309
10-15-2010, 12:17 PM
Q,
Let me ask this upfront, I kind a get lost in the data, My PD is last week of June 2006, EB2-India, When can I expect my GC? Last quarter of 2010 or 1st quarter of 2011 or later?
qesehmk
10-15-2010, 12:18 PM
Spec, thanks again. This is helpful. Before we try to change the model lets see what Teddy think? Teddy?
qesehmk
10-15-2010, 12:20 PM
Q,
Let me ask this upfront, I kind a get lost in the data, My PD is last week of June 2006, EB2-India, When can I expect my GC? Last quarter of 2010 or 1st quarter of 2011 or later?
Most likely Q2 2011. The reason being USCIS doesn't apply Qly spillover. Plus there are 2-3K people ahead of you enough to consume 3Q of EB2I quota.
TeddyKoochu
10-15-2010, 01:09 PM
Spec, thanks again. This is helpful. Before we try to change the model lets see what Teddy think? Teddy?
I read the latest murthy bulletin this confirms that the I485 inventory is still just the 485 inventory only. My suggestion would be to keep things simple let’s assume a factor of 500 something like a spread factor as these cases are spread over time this should include a) New PD porting wherein the date is current b) NVC and district office demand. By budgeting 500 PM we are adding 6K per annum to the inventory. This IMHO should be fine. Refer post # 11, I had used the same factor their but at that time it was just an assumption now there is some credible evidence atleast in the form of numbers. I think by this factor the prediction still stays reasonably conservative. Q / Spec if I understand correctly this saves us some numbers so maybe could help to move the dates forward by an extra month. I still believe that the effective magnitude of CP for EB2 I/C are well within 5% of the individual inventories. Please comment / critique. I had seen a poll on IV for the 2010 last quarter approvals and 4 out of 400 cases were CP or Local Office.
Q I matched post # 11 which I intend to recompute with the Oct inventory to your predictions its a good match. I believe that EB1 may hold the real key this year, the EB2 ROW trend is predictable but I notice very steady approvals from them on Trackitt.
Spectator
10-15-2010, 02:30 PM
My suggestion would be to keep things simple let's assume a factor of 500 something like a spread factor as these cases are spread over time this should include a) New PD porting wherein the date is current b) NVC and district office demand. By budgeting 500 PM we are adding 6K per annum to the inventory.
Teddy,
There are also new applications from dependants to factor in, but I have no doubt such an approach would work for new demand - for EB2.
It won't work for EB3 because individual Countries have wildly varying CP rates (Mexico at the low end and China/Philippines at the high end.
Even with EB2, Q needs to use a CP figure to derive what the initial backlog is. This affects EB1 for instance, where India has a CP rate 3 times less than most other Countries.
I think, if Q is going to do both EB2 & EB3 predictions, he needs to use a consistent method to derive the CP element.
My thoughts anyway.
TeddyKoochu
10-15-2010, 02:45 PM
Teddy,
There are also new applications from dependants to factor in, but I have no doubt such an approach would work for new demand - for EB2.
It won't work for EB3 because individual Countries have wildly varying CP rates (Mexico at the low end and China/Philippines at the high end.
Even with EB2, Q needs to use a CP figure to derive what the initial backlog is. This affects EB1 for instance, where India has a CP rate 3 times less than most other Countries.
I think, if Q is going to do both EB2 & EB3 predictions, he needs to use a consistent method to derive the CP element.
My thoughts anyway.
I agree with you that this is an EB2 approach only. For EB3 detailed analysis is required and the data break down is a must.
qesehmk
10-21-2010, 12:28 AM
Friends, I have been off for quite long. Sorry about that. Some other commitments....
As promised I utilized Spec's inputs regarding CP to recast our model. The HEAD of the thread is updated now.
Those who are not clear what we are talking here - our initial model assumed that all of CP / NVC inventory pertains to 485 dates that are current. However this is not true, since CP can be filed anytime and the date doesn't have to be current. This means a lot of the CP inventory especially for backlogged countries pertains to dates that are yet to be current. Spec did a good job in identifying the %CP cases for recent years. I have used 2009 ratios as they are the most relevant.
Spec regarding your observation about IVAMS data ... pls remember it excludes backlogged countries. So the data is not quite useful.
Teddy
Q,
It is significant and can't be ignored - I totally agree.
We have KNOWN data for previous years. It can be calculated for EB1, EB4 & EB5 by Group as I have already shown for EB2 and EB3.
....
Previous Year Visa Reports
FY2009[/B][/U]
All EB1 - 3.7% (1,524 of 40,976)
China - 3.5% (175 of 4,999)
India - 1.2% (83 of 6,672)
Mexico - 3.5% (70 of 2,010)
Philippines - 5.9% (31 of 524)
ROW - 4.4% (1,165 of 26771)
EB2
Previous Year Visa Reports
FY2009
All EB2 - 2.7%
China - 1.2%
India - 0.7%
Mexico - 2.0%
Philippines - 6.2%
ROW - 2.3%
EB3
Previous Year Visa Reports
FY2009
All EB3 - 16.0%
China - 27.0%
India - 13.6%
Mexico - 5.4%
Philippines - 33.8%
ROW - 13.8%
....I still believe that the effective magnitude of CP for EB2 I/C are well within 5% of the individual inventories. ....
Teddy agree. However I used calculated % for backlogged categories and real % for current categories.
Spectator
10-21-2010, 11:52 AM
Spec regarding your observation about IVAMS data ... pls remember it excludes backlogged countries. So the data is not quite useful.
Q,
I don't quite understand that comment.
The IVAMS data is available for all groupings: ROW, China, India, Mexico, Philippines and Dominican Republic. You just need to scroll down the document for the individual reports.
I am not in the US right now and don't have access to my data at the moment, nor am I logging in very much.
Regardless, I think it would only confirm the figures rather than change them (plus it is a pain to import them via OCR from the PDF!).
Nice to see you back.
qesehmk
10-21-2010, 08:52 PM
Spec, Thanks. I had only read the heading!! Thanks. IVAM data still has serious flaw. It only talks about "Documentarily Qualified" candidates. Secondly it has 138K cases whereas 485 inventory has 114K and CP inventory has 103K. So where are the 79K cases? Are those not yet "Documentarily Qualified" cases?
I was so surprised to see how closely the IVAMS data matches with the model we have on first page of the thread? However the fact that 79K cases can't be accounted for in IVAMS is not comforting.
Q,
The IVAMS data is available for all groupings: ROW, China, India, Mexico, Philippines and Dominican Republic. You just need to scroll down the document for the individual reports.
qesehmk
10-26-2010, 11:51 AM
Teddy, you are right. Trackitt is not good for EB1 analysis. For EB2 however it is very good. And I suppose for EB3 as well.
As per porting ... people may not update their trackitt case entirely. They can simply change EB3 to EB2. However as we go ahead.. 4-5 months later we will have a good hang as per how big porting is. But the truth is porting will hold EB2 down. And no complaints about that. Just that it is that way.
Thanks Q; I researched little bit further into this. I probably added an additional filter to say that the filing date is in 2009 and 2010. This leaves me with 7 cases so the remaining ones are folks who had a delayed approval due to RFE's or other reasons. Now if we dwell further into these 7 cases 3 of them are for dependants some with pretty old PD's. There is however 1 case which shows approved as EB3 but is EB2 (PD 2003 it’s in the comments. Now if we extrapolate this to say 6 it will still fit onto the 20% range so your old estimate looks good. Also good to note that after the NVC analysis your prediction for EB2 moved ahead by a month. I do agree that we should keep a close watch on PD porting; recently I read a case wherein the I140 was approved in 2 days. Also note that there are a significant number of Eb2 ROW approvals on Trackitt while very few EB1's still early days though, however I feel that that Trackitt EB1 representation is not good.
Pundit Arjun
10-28-2010, 08:33 AM
Q,
I read the Thread header (the first post) and it did explain a lot of things that I was not aware of earlier.
My Priority date is October 10th, 2009[EB2-I]. Looking at the post header (where we believe that EB2-I will be at Mar-2007 by Sept 2011) and the october 2010 pending 485 inventory, it looks like that there will be only about 11000 pending 485 applications (with 4-5K for Porting).
Hence can i assume that I will be able to file my 485 by Sept2012 (or) When do you think I can expect to be greened or atleast get EAD?
Thanks in advance,
Arjun
qesehmk
10-28-2010, 10:53 AM
Pundit,
Welcome to forum. I think although your date seems long. You should be able to get GC in less than 3 years. The reason being that the demand is not that high post 07 for all of EB2. The risk although is one that of EB3 porting. If those people start converting in droves then its going to be quite some wait for you. As of now the chances are high that you get a GC in 3 years. EAD should be another 1 or 2 years. First window of opportunity Jun-Sep 2011 Second one is one year later.
Q,
I read the Thread header (the first post) and it did explain a lot of things that I was not aware of earlier.
My Priority date is October 10th, 2009[EB2-I]. Looking at the post header (where we believe that EB2-I will be at Mar-2007 by Sept 2011) and the october 2010 pending 485 inventory, it looks like that there will be only about 11000 pending 485 applications (with 4-5K for Porting).
Hence can i assume that I will be able to file my 485 by Sept2012 (or) When do you think I can expect to be greened or atleast get EAD?
Thanks in advance,
Arjun
Pundit Arjun
10-28-2010, 12:52 PM
Thanks for the reply, Q. Have been following you from IV :).
On what basis, are you saying that I can expect to get an EAD within the next 1-2 years ? I am not questioning you but am curious to know the possibility.
Is it because of a Bill or hope for any immigration reform ?
Thanks in advance.
dec_01_2006
10-28-2010, 01:06 PM
Hey Q,
I have been following your thread for the past 3-4 months on IV before you moved here. I appreciate the way you bring sanity in the otherwise Black Box world of GC processing timelines. My priority date is Dec 1st 2006. There was a small probability of the date becoming in Sept 2010; however that did not happen. On a conservative note what the chances of me getting greened by Sept 2011. Is there a chance I can be greened by July, Aug?
Regards,
S
qesehmk
10-28-2010, 01:10 PM
Pundit,
Its ok to question. Otherwise how will we learn? The reason you may be eligible to file for an EAD in 1 (50% probability) or 2 years (99%) is because EB2 pipeline should be either close to being cleared by Sep 2011 or will be cleared by 2012. Besides USCIS needs to work to justify jobs. So they will want to admit new 485 cases. The question is whether they will flood all in or will keep moving the date 3-4 months at a time. Theoretically they can move dates 3-4 months at a time. But that's a risky strategy because if SOFAD comes then USCIS need to have a solid pipeline to apply it against (unless of course they are willing to let visas go waste or spill over to EB3). Thats why most likely they will replenish teh pipeline in wholesale! The question is when will they choose to do it? What is their threshold? If their threshold is 6-10K then it could happen in sep 11. If their threshold is much less then it could happen sep 12. But I don't see any EB2 w PD 2007 Jun or earlier after sep 12.
Thanks for the reply, Q. Have been following you from IV :).
On what basis, are you saying that I can expect to get an EAD within the next 1-2 years ? I am not questioning you but am curious to know the possibility.
Is it because of a Bill or hope for any immigration reform ?
Thanks in advance.
qesehmk
10-28-2010, 01:12 PM
I think it should be 100% by August.
Hey Q,
I have been following your thread for the past 3-4 months on IV before you moved here. I appreciate the way you bring sanity in the otherwise Black Box world of GC processing timelines. My priority date is Dec 1st 2006. There was a small probability of the date becoming in Sept 2010; however that did not happen. On a conservative note what the chances of me getting greened by Sept 2011. Is there a chance I can be greened by July, Aug?
Regards,
S
TeddyKoochu
10-28-2010, 03:05 PM
Pundit,
Welcome to forum. I think although your date seems long. You should be able to get GC in less than 3 years. The reason being that the demand is not that high post 07 for all of EB2. The risk although is one that of EB3 porting. If those people start converting in droves then its going to be quite some wait for you. As of now the chances are high that you get a GC in 3 years. EAD should be another 1 or 2 years. First window of opportunity Jun-Sep 2011 Second one is one year later.
Q / Arjun, Following are my thoughts. Arjun's PD is Oct 2009. Here are some facts that I have read over from some of the places.
- There have been layoffs at the agencies - contractors. The revenue idea though is correct may not fly in the current environment.
- There was some talk of developing a system that could calculate numbers based on I140 filings so that they could move the dates at a predictable manner based on this. This is supposed to go live by 2012.
- IMHO there are very little chances of the entire backlog prior to Jul 2007 being cleared by Sep 2011, we will most likely be confined to the 1st quarter of 2007 assuming no FB, FB can really change the equation.
- There seems to be no sign of quarterly spillover and the current 485 approval processing time is 6 months. So theoretically 50% of those who say file in Jul of a yr may see approvals by Sep, the rest of the half maybe unlucky and may have to wait an extra year.
Now the demand between Jul 2007 and Oct 2009 (Arjun's PD) is atleast going to be 50K (I+C) I assume 50% of this comes from the remainder of 2007 and the rest of it comes from 2008 and 2009.
With 30K SOFAD a year and with everything holding and no visa's going to EB3 ROW by default I believe even EAD is 3 years away i.e. 2013. Hopefully if things are better by that time GC may come sooner rather than the extra year.
qesehmk
10-28-2010, 03:59 PM
(Going forward) .... since EB2 ROW backlog is less we can definitely expect to see higher SOFAD this year from EB2 ROW, however 2 factors will just counteract that a) NO FB that means -6500 b) Higher PD porting means -5000.
I agree w both A and B.
Now the demand between Jul 2007 and Oct 2009 (Arjun's PD) is atleast going to be 50K (I+C) I assume 50% of this comes from the remainder of 2007 and the rest of it comes from 2008 and 2009.
With 30K SOFAD a year and with everything holding and no visa's going to EB3 ROW by default I believe even EAD is 3 years away i.e. 2013. Hopefully if things are better by that time GC may come sooner rather than the extra year.
Teddy I think your 50K would be right overall. But ROW is already out of that. So EB2IC is about 33K between 08-10. Add 33K to 45-55K current backlog. That 88K.
That just satisfies to be fulfilled through 30K SOFAD per year.
formailer
10-31-2010, 10:51 AM
Hi Friends,
I enjoyed reading the analysis and counter-analysis on IV.
Good to see the effort. I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank you.
How can the analysis be tied to priority dates. Here is the reason I'm asking this question . there are a lot of people who may not be very familiar with the calculation.
My PD is EB2I - dec-1-2006 I assume it will take atleast a year to get to this point. Is my understanding correct
formailer
10-31-2010, 11:00 AM
I was looking at pending I-485 report for EB2
I-485
May 1058
June 1629
July 1494
Aug 1644
Sept 1683
Oct 1703
Nov 1691
Dec 1865
EB3 to EB2 5000
Total: 17767
Does this mean that from May - Dec there are 17 K applicant waiting for VISA
gcseeker
11-01-2010, 01:11 AM
First of all big thanks to the intiators for moving this thread to a new independent site. This helps immensely for all of those of us stuck in the big wait for GC.
I just wanted to point a recent article straight from the horses mouth itself proving Porting is happening in a very big way. I am pretty sure most of you must have seen this article already.
http://www.laborimmigration.com/2010/09/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim/
"Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month."
"EB-2 India. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a week or so) in the short-term. This is mainly caused by the fact that many EB-3 India applicants (there are approximately 60,000 EB-3 India pending cases) are “porting” their priority dates into the EB-2 India category and are thus taking visa numbers."
I would almost go on a rant against EB3 porting but it would only serve to distract the others from the wonderful calculations and predictions being done here. There will always be others who will cut corners and jump through the lines,it is fine if they are genuine EB3 cases waiting since 2003 ...but often it is something else.
Anywaz I sadly feel EB2 will not move much even by end of next year.
Gcseeker
Q, I think though the figure of 50K matched its coincidental we are saying different things. The Current I/C demand based on the Inventory and demand data is ~ 35K. This is the pre Aug 2007 demand.
Now we have PWMB, Porting and new demand post Aug 2007 for EB2 I/C will be atleast 50K. Most of it will be pre 2008 demand ~ 25K of it 2007 is the big year. I feel that the total figure just for I/C till say Jan 2010 is in the 90K range for EB2 I/C, note most of the people atleast 80% form I/C are filing EB2 these days. With 90K to cross at ~ 30K a year though this could be much more will take 3 years. It may well take people like me (Jul 07) and Leo (Jun 07) who are PWMB's 2 years to even get EAD. SOFAD more than 30K a year without any FB component looks a little tough though is not impossible. Please guide.
TeddyKoochu
11-01-2010, 02:58 PM
Month-Year India China PD Porting PWMB CP +
Local Office Total
Monthly Cumulative
Sum
Offset 1800 200 0 0 0 2000 2000
May-06 1058 445 500 100 100 2203 4203
Jun-06 1629 733 500 100 100 3062 7265
Jul-06 1494 620 500 100 100 2814 10079
Aug-06 1644 694 500 100 100 3038 13117
Sep-06 1683 764 500 100 100 3147 16264
Oct-06 1703 745 500 100 100 3148 19412
Nov-06 1691 673 500 100 100 3064 22476
Dec-06 1865 768 500 200 100 3433 25909
Jan-07 1505 666 500 200 100 2971 28880
Feb-07 1431 594 500 200 100 2825 31705
Mar-07 1353 684 500 200 100 2837 34542
Apr-07 1370 624 500 200 100 2794 37336
May-07 1123 524 500 500 100 2747 40083
Jun-07 1307 574 500 1500 100 3981 44064
Jul-07 1518 1754 500 1500 100 5372 49436
Aug-07 202 294 500 1500 100 2596 52032
In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Oct 2010 Inventory, I have assumed a starting offset of 2000 as there were cases which did not see approval last year even though they were current. PD porting I assume that will be added ~500 when that month becomes current from the October inventory. I arrived at 500 as last year the effective porting was ~3K so 500 PM represents a higher rate. PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. The value starts with 100, then goes to 200 then 500 and then 1500 these figures are from my gut feeling but in approximation I believe that they should hold. The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point. Now ~ 20K SOFAD will just take us to Nov 2006 (I deduct 6.5K the FB contribution) for last year. While ~37K SOFAD helps us to clear Apr 2007 refer calculation below with approximations and assumptions.
Some known facts are a) Total SOFAD - 26.5K (AILA Report). b) EB5 - 7.5K From reliable published reports. c) India & China Annual Cap - 6K.
Hence SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 = 26.5 - 7.5 - 6 = 13K.
(Probably 10K came from EB2 ROW and 3.5K came from EB1 this is my guess).
Adjustment for NO FB this Year = -6.5K.
Nett SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 without FB would be 13K - 6.5K = 6.5K
Now lets analyze on Trackitt to see the trend for October.
Year 2010 –
EB1-A – 6 EB1-B – 5 EB1-C – 4 Total - 15
EB2 ROW - 60
Year 2009
EB1-A – 26 EB1-B – 44 EB1-C – 38 Total - 88
EB2 ROW - 110
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-29625 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 40320 - 6000 - 10000 = 24320.
Now the October trend shows that the consumption is 60 * 24320 / 110 ~ 13K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 13K ~ 21K.
EB5 SOFAD I expect will decline from 7K to 5K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 21 + 5 = 37K.
Ideally with this we should be able to cross April 2007 with this, refer to the extrapolated inventory. I believe EB1 will really hold the key along with any good news on FB.
qesehmk
11-01-2010, 03:05 PM
Leo
I would disagree on 90-95% EB3 porting being genuine cases,on the contrary 30-40% might be genuine. USCIS did not bother to close many major loopholes before the fiasco of 2007.
Example .Pre Substituted Labour abuse which was rampant at that time.Many who came fresh off the boat bought pre approved labours with PD dates as old as 2001 in 2007 itself .
Anywaz you are right on one point though. It is an immense source of income for both AILA and USCIS. Porting costs upto 5000-8000 per app.
It is just the way this system is built . EB3 porting is happening big time and will weight down EB2 dates for atleast 2 yrs .
gcseeker, i think the picture is not as good as we would like but certainly not as bad as we fear. The dates will not be held by by 2 years because of porting. Porting last year was 2-4K max. So Next year we could expect it to double at the most. That is equivalent to 2-3 months of EB2I movement.
qesehmk
11-03-2010, 02:37 PM
Teddy I agree w your SOFAD. But not sure you are accounting for porting and CP.
Month-Year India China PD Porting PWMB CP +
Local Office Total
Monthly Cumulative
Sum
Offset 1800 200 0 0 0 2000 2000
May-06 1058 445 500 100 100 2203 4203
Jun-06 1629 733 500 100 100 3062 7265
Jul-06 1494 620 500 100 100 2814 10079
Aug-06 1644 694 500 100 100 3038 13117
Sep-06 1683 764 500 100 100 3147 16264
Oct-06 1703 745 500 100 100 3148 19412
Nov-06 1691 673 500 100 100 3064 22476
Dec-06 1865 768 500 200 100 3433 25909
Jan-07 1505 666 500 200 100 2971 28880
Feb-07 1431 594 500 200 100 2825 31705
Mar-07 1353 684 500 200 100 2837 34542
Apr-07 1370 624 500 200 100 2794 37336
May-07 1123 524 500 500 100 2747 40083
Jun-07 1307 574 500 1500 100 3981 44064
Jul-07 1518 1754 500 1500 100 5372 49436
Aug-07 202 294 500 1500 100 2596 52032
In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Oct 2010 Inventory, I have assumed a starting offset of 2000 as there were cases which did not see approval last year even though they were current. PD porting I assume that will be added ~500 when that month becomes current from the October inventory. I arrived at 500 as last year the effective porting was ~3K so 500 PM represents a higher rate. PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. The value starts with 100, then goes to 200 then 500 and then 1500 these figures are from my gut feeling but in approximation I believe that they should hold. The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point. Now ~ 20K SOFAD will just take us to Nov 2006 (I deduct 6.5K the FB contribution) for last year. While ~37K SOFAD helps us to clear Apr 2007 refer calculation below with approximations and assumptions.
Some known facts are a) Total SOFAD - 26.5K (AILA Report). b) EB5 - 7.5K From reliable published reports. c) India & China Annual Cap - 6K.
Hence SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 = 26.5 - 7.5 - 6 = 13K.
(Probably 10K came from EB2 ROW and 3.5K came from EB1 this is my guess).
Adjustment for NO FB this Year = -6.5K.
Nett SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 without FB would be 13K - 6.5K = 6.5K
Now lets analyze on Trackitt to see the trend for October.
Year 2010 –
EB1-A – 6 EB1-B – 5 EB1-C – 4 Total - 15
EB2 ROW - 60
Year 2009
EB1-A – 26 EB1-B – 44 EB1-C – 38 Total - 88
EB2 ROW - 110
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-29625 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 40320 - 6000 - 10000 = 24320.
Now the October trend shows that the consumption is 60 * 24320 / 110 ~ 13K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 13K ~ 21K.
EB5 SOFAD I expect will decline from 7K to 5K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 21 + 5 = 37K.
Ideally with this we should be able to cross April 2007 with this, refer to the extrapolated inventory. I believe EB1 will really hold the key along with any good news on FB.
TeddyKoochu
11-03-2010, 04:05 PM
Teddy I agree w your SOFAD. But not sure you are accounting for porting and CP.
Q, I have assumed porting @500 PM and CP @100 PM refer to the table. Now if we are actually able to move from May 2006 to Apr 2007 this would make new effective porting 6000 (Not in inventory and brand new) and CP 1200 (Kind of in line with the earlier discussions) for the year. Looks like EB1 will hold the key but on Trackitt there seems to be a huge decline in EB1 partly the volume is not so high the Oct - Oct compare for 2009 and 2010 shows a 6 fold decrease, however in my calculations I have only suggested a 25% decrease to remain conservative this is only 1/24th, I feel certain that there will be a decrease though. The Trackitt data may not be great but I certainly believe that the decrease will be there and will be largely in EB1C, the research based EB1A and B won't be impacted that much.
qesehmk
11-03-2010, 04:12 PM
Teddy
Why are you not assuming CP at 15% (approx 6K)?
Q, I have assumed porting @500 PM and CP @100 PM refer to the table. Now if we are actually able to move from May 2006 to Apr 2007 this would make new effective porting 6000 (Not in inventory and brand new) and CP 1200 (Kind of in line with the earlier discussions) for the year. Looks like EB1 will hold the key but on Trackitt there seems to be a huge decline in EB1 partly the volume is not so high the Oct - Oct compare for 2009 and 2010 shows a 6 fold decrease, however in my calculations I have only suggested a 25% decrease to remain conservative this is only 1/24th, I feel certain that there will be a decrease though. The Trackitt data may not be great but I certainly believe that the decrease will be there and will be largely in EB1C, the research based EB1A and B won't be impacted that much.
TeddyKoochu
11-03-2010, 04:23 PM
Teddy
Why are you not assuming CP at 15% (approx 6K)?
Refer post # 102 by our good friend spectator & post # 98, I remember your assumption was 6K.
For EB2-I the normal CP run rate is around 1%, so the 2,996 NVC cases represents 299,600 total cases.
The CP may be overall higher for EB3 due to 245I issue and that may have brought it to 15% in some years. ON IV there was a poll which should 500 approvals and only 3 were CP, CP folks maybe less likely to track though. I feel that CP should really be very less for EB2 I/C like 1200 Per year, 6K may be too high.
qesehmk
11-03-2010, 04:50 PM
Agree. Especially true now that ROW is all clear so the only CP that is there is mostly IC.
Refer post # 102 by our good friend spectator & post # 98, I remember your assumption was 6K.
For EB2-I the normal CP run rate is around 1%, so the 2,996 NVC cases represents 299,600 total cases.
The CP may be overall higher for EB3 due to 245I issue and that may have brought it to 15% in some years. ON IV there was a poll which should 500 approvals and only 3 were CP, CP folks maybe less likely to track though. I feel that CP should really be very less for EB2 I/C like 1200 Per year, 6K may be too high.
qesehmk
11-04-2010, 10:47 AM
Guys its been one month we launched this site. We have 230 members as of yesterday! As we have said many times before .... the purpose of this wokr we are doing here is really to help people understand REALISTICALLY how much time they need to wait before they can get a GC - so that they can plan their lives better. That's all what we are doing here. Hope this is helping at least some of you. Good luck and best wishes!
Pundit Arjun
11-04-2010, 01:21 PM
Hi Q,
Glad to be one of the 230 members. Appreciate the work you and other members are doing. Helps a ton.
Good luck to all the members and best wishes.
~ Pundit
bieber
11-05-2010, 09:39 AM
Q
i registered couple of weeks ago but never posted, thank u for the site
always followed the thread in immigrationvoice, you/teddy and others did awesome job.
casantino
11-05-2010, 10:53 AM
Hi,
I joined a few weeks ago and i must say i came to the right place. This is a fantastic thread. I would recommend including the potential impact of immigration reform initiatives discussed in DC, such as dream act, CIR etc. Also, would appreciate if someone could provide the estimated difference between I-485 filed till July 2007 and I-485 filed after that per year. I am assuming a sharp drop in filings in 2008 and 2009 due to the slow economy.
Thanks.
qesehmk
11-05-2010, 12:15 PM
Thank you Bieber, Casantino. Glad this thread is helpful :-)
Happy Diwali to all !! For those who may not know - Diwali is an Indian festival that celebrates light which symbolizes hope. Also a new Vikram Samvat i.e. Hindu new year starts during Diwali. Wishing all of you Happy diwali and a very happy new prosperous year!!
Q
i registered couple of weeks ago but never posted, thank u for the site
always followed the thread in immigrationvoice, you/teddy and others did awesome job.
Hi,
I joined a few weeks ago and i must say i came to the right place. This is a fantastic thread. I would recommend including the potential impact of immigration reform initiatives discussed in DC, such as dream act, CIR etc. Also, would appreciate if someone could provide the estimated difference between I-485 filed till July 2007 and I-485 filed after that per year. I am assuming a sharp drop in filings in 2008 and 2009 due to the slow economy.
Thanks.
Thanks Q for starting this blog. Your input and analysis are valuable. I will not ask ke mera number kab aayega :)-
Dec Visa Bulletin is out.
Update for the future months from the bulletin:
Employment Second:
India: no movement
Spectator
11-12-2010, 07:08 PM
This figure now seems to be confirmed by the VO.
This document was published today http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
It was authored by oppenheim (presumably Charles Oppenheim).
However unexpected, it is not good news, since extra visa numbers from FB make such a big difference.
Also published today was the update to the NVC figures as at November 1, 2010.
It can be found here : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
baba2s
11-12-2010, 07:43 PM
http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/192/31/
"This clearly requires an easy legislative fix. For example, if unused numbers for the past ten years were recapture, the EB2 India line would be vastly decreased."
EASY ?? is it really easy ?
casantino
11-17-2010, 06:18 PM
Fellow GC seekers ... please submit the following petition to your congressmen:
http://www.petition2congress.com/2/3284/
This would help us all.
PS: I inserted one line in the petition and that was to pass the Visa Recapture bill.
Thanks
qesehmk
11-17-2010, 06:47 PM
Fellow GC seekers ... please submit the following petition to your congressmen:
http://www.petition2congress.com/2/3284/
This would help us all.
PS: I inserted one line in the petition and that was to pass the Visa Recapture bill.
Thanks
casantino, thanks. I signed it and certainly recommend others to do the same.
soulgaboy
11-19-2010, 09:43 AM
You Guys are doing a Great Job! This is my first post after joining this blog. My Priority date is Feb 14,2007 EB2. When do you guys think it will get current any chances in 2011?
qesehmk
11-19-2010, 10:18 AM
You Guys are doing a Great Job! This is my first post after joining this blog. My Priority date is Feb 14,2007 EB2. When do you guys think it will get current any chances in 2011?
soulgaboy, welcome to forum. Pls refer to the first post in the thread. Your chances look very good.
bieber
11-19-2010, 10:50 AM
Q,
do you think it's possible that DOS moves cutoff dates before july 2012? for EB2I
it looks like by end of fy2012, the entire backlog till 2007 will be cleared, what is ur estimation when they start accepting new cases
qesehmk
11-19-2010, 11:43 AM
Bieber, as far as we can see the big movement will always happen between jun-sep i.e. Q4. There is a possibility that in 2011 itself 2007 may get cleared. But the chances are less.
When 2007 current backlog comes close to being cleared, then USCIS can make 2 way movememnt. 1) Make it current for a month and then fall back. 2) Make a 6-12 month movement into 2008.
#1 allows all applicants waiting to file 485 to enjoy benefits of EAD and allows uSCIS to have a good large inventory to start working on again.
#2 allows USCIS to keep working on enough applications to exhaust EB2I quota.
In eithercase the decision will be a political and policy one. Unless immigration groups make noise #2 is more probable unfortunately in the current economic scenario.
Q,
do you think it's possible that DOS moves cutoff dates before july 2012? for EB2I
it looks like by end of fy2012, the entire backlog till 2007 will be cleared, what is ur estimation when they start accepting new cases
Spectator
11-19-2010, 01:30 PM
Bieber, as far as we can see the big movement will always happen between jun-sep i.e. Q4. There is a possibility that in 2011 itself 2007 may get cleared. But the chances are less.
When 2007 current backlog comes close to being cleared, then USCIS can make 2 way movememnt. 1) Make it current for a month and then fall back. 2) Make a 6-12 month movement into 2008.
#1 allows all applicants waiting to file 485 to enjoy benefits of EAD and allows uSCIS to have a good large inventory to start working on again.
#2 allows USCIS to keep working on enough applications to exhaust EB2I quota.
In eithercase the decision will be a political and policy one. Unless immigration groups make noise #2 is more probable unfortunately in the current economic scenario.Q,
I'm not sure I agree with that analysis.
USCIS have no influence on how the Cut Off dates are set.
That is the prerogative of the Dept of State through the Visa Office.
DOS couldn't care less about USCIS finances and it would violate their mandate if they moved the dates too far.
The VO is charged with ensuring that the yearly allocations are fully used, but not exceeded.
How they move the Cut Off dates when the current backlog is cleared is going to depend when it is necessary and how much demand they need to just use up the quota.
If it is towards the end of the year (towards spillover season), then each month of forward movement yields approx 2k visas for India and China, so if they needed 4k, only 2 months are needed.
If the backlog clears when spillover is not a concern, then the 7% limits are in place at around 250 visas a month per Country. In that case, the Cut Off dates need only advance a week or so to stimulate sufficient demand. In fact they may not need to move them at all due to PWMB and Porting applications.
To do anything else would be, as you pointed out, a political decision.
After what happened in July 2007, I don't think #1 is even a possibility, unless DOS are given specific Congressional authority to do so.
#2 looks unlikely as well, since the VO do not need a 6-12 month advance to stimulate the required demand. Again it would need specific authority to do so IMHO.
qesehmk
11-19-2010, 06:05 PM
Sorry .... I meant DOS moving dates.
Regarding the movement .... the USCIS hasn't achieved the sofistication where they will be able to move dates by a few weeks every month. Rather historically they have been moving dates in big leaps.
Q,
I'm not sure I agree with that analysis.
USCIS have no influence on how the Cut Off dates are set.
That is the prerogative of the Dept of State through the Visa Office.
DOS couldn't care less about USCIS finances and it would violate their mandate if they moved the dates too far.
The VO is charged with ensuring that the yearly allocations are fully used, but not exceeded.
How they move the Cut Off dates when the current backlog is cleared is going to depend when it is necessary and how much demand they need to just use up the quota.
If it is towards the end of the year (towards spillover season), then each month of forward movement yields approx 2k visas for India and China, so if they needed 4k, only 2 months are needed.
If the backlog clears when spillover is not a concern, then the 7% limits are in place at around 250 visas a month per Country. In that case, the Cut Off dates need only advance a week or so to stimulate sufficient demand. In fact they may not need to move them at all due to PWMB and Porting applications.
To do anything else would be, as you pointed out, a political decision.
After what happened in July 2007, I don't think #1 is even a possibility, unless DOS are given specific Congressional authority to do so.
#2 looks unlikely as well, since the VO do not need a 6-12 month advance to stimulate the required demand. Again it would need specific authority to do so IMHO.
bieber
11-22-2010, 11:00 AM
Q & Spectator
number of petitions has comedown drastically due to economy, mostly starting 2008 (official recession began in Dec2007, so this may be the only yardstick they have).
DOS can do anything, i admit that, but on what basis they decide the cutoff date once backlog is cleared. isn't it more practical to accept all the applications and then start setting the cutoff dates?
just for example, if DOS moves dates to Dec2007 expecting enough applications to fill the spillover and for some reason there are not enough applications, the visas will go to EB3 when EB2 is not current and they may get sued or something
i know this is not practical, but theoritically this is totally possible case.
TeddyKoochu
11-22-2010, 11:24 AM
yank
thanks. the bulletin is as expected. They don't see need to retrogress EB2 is a good sign that conversions are not flooding in.
Look how EB3 I is progressing however 2-3 weeks per month is a terrific progress. But given where the date is it is not surprising since the volume is 8K per year in 2002. The progress is 1/2 year per year (including conversions). So that is 4K per year consumption. So about 1K pre 2003 conversions. Extrapolating over entire EB3 population the conversions would be about 4-6K MAX. So EB2I guys stay put until Jun. And then its going to be your lucky day!
p.s. Watch out for NVC inventory that came out today http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
Thanks Q, about EB3-I I believe that the 3 weeks of movement seen is slightly disappointing because 700 visas have been infused in the system and the Jan - Mar inventory demand in 2002 is actually low, the demand is much higher in the later months. Also the pre 2002 demand has been stable since the last couple of months at 8250. This would indicate that the Eb3-I dependant filing is high for pre 2002 and also that folks from 2002 are not porting. However looking at the Eb2-I demand I agree with the porting range of 4-6K. Hopefully we will see big movement in Jul - Sep 2011.
TeddyKoochu
11-22-2010, 11:29 AM
Sorry .... I meant DOS moving dates.
Regarding the movement .... the USCIS hasn't achieved the sofistication where they will be able to move dates by a few weeks every month. Rather historically they have been moving dates in big leaps.
Q & Spectator agree with both of you. However likely the tipping point will come in 2012 and not 2011 when both EB2 I / C and also EB3 ROW will be current. Looks like there won't be enough numbers this year to clear the entire backlog till Jul 2007 unless something special happens but we may come quite close to it. Iam also waiting for that day so that atleast file for 485. There was some talk of developing a system within USCIS - DOS to have movement based on I140 filings any news on that?
qesehmk
11-22-2010, 11:36 AM
Bieber
What you say is correct and it is not an insignificant possibility. DOS / USCIS are capable of that kind of folly. So lets cross the fingers and hope that they move dates at least beyond mid 2008 by Sep 11.
Q & Spectator
number of petitions has comedown drastically due to economy, mostly starting 2008 (official recession began in Dec2007, so this may be the only yardstick they have).
DOS can do anything, i admit that, but on what basis they decide the cutoff date once backlog is cleared. isn't it more practical to accept all the applications and then start setting the cutoff dates?
just for example, if DOS moves dates to Dec2007 expecting enough applications to fill the spillover and for some reason there are not enough applications, the visas will go to EB3 when EB2 is not current and they may get sued or something
i know this is not practical, but theoritically this is totally possible case.
qesehmk
11-22-2010, 12:25 PM
I agree that Jul 2007 wont be reached by Sep 11. My guess is it will barely reach Mar 07. However, I do think they may actually want to have at least one year quota on hand to exhaust even 3K EB2I quota. I think thats how inefficient they are.
Q & Spectator agree with both of you. However likely the tipping point will come in 2012 and not 2011 when both EB2 I / C and also EB3 ROW will be current. Looks like there won't be enough numbers this year to clear the entire backlog till Jul 2007 unless something special happens but we may come quite close to it. Iam also waiting for that day so that atleast file for 485. There was some talk of developing a system within USCIS - DOS to have movement based on I140 filings any news on that?
Spectator
11-22-2010, 05:58 PM
Q & Spectator agree with both of you. However likely the tipping point will come in 2012 and not 2011 when both EB2 I / C and also EB3 ROW will be current. Looks like there won't be enough numbers this year to clear the entire backlog till Jul 2007 unless something special happens but we may come quite close to it. Iam also waiting for that day so that atleast file for 485. There was some talk of developing a system within USCIS - DOS to have movement based on I140 filings any news on that?Teddy,
I agree that the end of FY2012 looks like it wil be the critical time. I am not as optimistic as you - I think this is when the current backlogs will be either just exhausted or approaching exhaustion for both EB2 and EB3-ROW.
I prefer to use that terminology, because it isn't the same as Current.
I still can't subscribe to the theory that DOS will have to do anything amazing regarding forward movement of the Cut Off dates to cope with this.
Firstly, an element of forecasting and prediction is already part of the VO modus operandi. If it weren't, EB1 I&C would have to have had Cut Off dates established in recent years. By looking at current trends and past history, the VO have never done so, because they have forecast that spill up from EB5 will be sufficient to cover the demand.
Secondly, passing August 2007 is not an unexpected event. I am sure planning for this event has already started.
At the simplest level, DOS knows with some certainty the number of cases post August 2007 that are awaiting CP. They also know the historic CP:AOS ratio for each Country category. Even in the absence of any information from USCIS, they can set an approximate Cut Off date, even if it has a sizeable buffer built in.
In fact, DOS can move the Cut Off dates relatively early to gauge demand and then adjust them later if necessary. This would allow enough time to process and approve sufficient cases.
In reality, I suspect that USCIS will also be under pressure to complete an inventory of approved I-140s in their system awaiting potential I-485 submission, similar to the I-485 Inventory. Even if this was only partially successful, it would provide sufficient information to DOS to set approximate Cut Off dates beyond August 2007, again probably with a buffer.
The very last thing that DOS will want to be accused of, is creating anything which can be remotely compared to July 2007.
Next to that, they will not want to be accused of wasting visas when there is still demand from EB2.
None of the above necessitates moving Cut Off dates to either Current or well into 2008, unless you believe very large amounts of spillover will be available to deal with post August 2007 cases in FY2012. I would be surprised if it has to move into 2008 at all.
I don't particularly want to be cast as the doom sayer. I actually agree with most that you say. My feelings are based on a very conservative position, which you have stated you don't want to assume yet. Thus we are coming from two different ends of the same line. Possibly we will meet in the middle eventually.
I think that contrary positions often stimulate the best discussions. I certainly hope so.
TeddyKoochu
11-23-2010, 10:58 AM
My Coments Inline, really appreciate your politeness.
Teddy,
I agree that the end of FY2012 looks like it wil be the critical time. I am not as optimistic as you - I think this is when the current backlogs will be either just exhausted or approaching exhaustion for both EB2 and EB3-ROW.
I prefer to use that terminology, because it isn't the same as Current.
I also meant to say the same agree your terminology and way of stating makes it clearer, thanks.
I still can't subscribe to the theory that DOS will have to do anything amazing regarding forward movement of the Cut Off dates to cope with this.
Firstly, an element of forecasting and prediction is already part of the VO modus operandi. If it weren't, EB1 I&C would have to have had Cut Off dates established in recent years. By looking at current trends and past history, the VO have never done so, because they have forecast that spill up from EB5 will be sufficient to cover the demand.
Secondly, passing August 2007 is not an unexpected event. I am sure planning for this event has already started.
At the simplest level, DOS knows with some certainty the number of cases post August 2007 that are awaiting CP. They also know the historic CP:AOS ratio for each Country category. Even in the absence of any information from USCIS, they can set an approximate Cut Off date, even if it has a sizeable buffer built in.
In fact, DOS can move the Cut Off dates relatively early to gauge demand and then adjust them later if necessary. This would allow enough time to process and approve sufficient cases.
In reality, I suspect that USCIS will also be under pressure to complete an inventory of approved I-140s in their system awaiting potential I-485 submission, similar to the I-485 Inventory. Even if this was only partially successful, it would provide sufficient information to DOS to set approximate Cut Off dates beyond August 2007, again probably with a buffer.
There was some talk of developing a system within USCIS - DOS to predict date adjustments based on I140 information and the ETA for that when I last heard was 2012, maybe they know that this is the time when it will be coming.
The very last thing that DOS will want to be accused of, is creating anything which can be remotely compared to July 2007.
Next to that, they will not want to be accused of wasting visas when there is still demand from EB2.
I hope the visas are not wasted and go to EB2 retrogressed countries and they have cases from within this group to process even if they have to open the gate further otherwise it goes to EB3 ROW by default.
None of the above necessitates moving Cut Off dates to either Current or well into 2008, unless you believe very large amounts of spillover will be available to deal with post August 2007 cases in FY2012. I would be surprised if it has to move into 2008 at all.
I agree the demand till 2007 end is itself huge in addition, theer are atleast 20K filings post Jul 07 and there are around 5k folks who missed the boat this is actually in the range of the SOFAD we received this year, so 2008 looks highly unlikely this year and even in 2012 depending on the resting point in 2011 we may just barely enter 2008. However from another side having waited for so long just to file for 485 I would be happy if they made the dates literally current so as to allow everybody to file for 485 and then retrogress. In these times its not easy to survive on H1B.
I don't particularly want to be cast as the doom sayer. I actually agree with most that you say. My feelings are based on a very conservative position, which you have stated you don't want to assume yet. Thus we are coming from two different ends of the same line. Possibly we will meet in the middle eventually.
I think that contrary positions often stimulate the best discussions. I certainly hope so.
I agree with you its good to stay conservative and set realistic expectations, expecting more that likely or something that requires all optimistic scenarios to add up is not really realistic and causes more grief in the end. With my PD at the end of Jul 2007 Iam looking at 2012 realistically for EAD/AP/GC, 2011 is a long shot but not impossibe just hoping :)
qesehmk
11-23-2010, 11:12 AM
Teddy, somebody with a PD of Jul 07 is going to get a GC by Sep 12. The question of visa date being current so that you can file 485 could be in 2011 or 2012. But the visas are going to be there for you to get your GC.
With my PD at the end of Jul 2007 Iam looking at 2012 realistically for EAD/AP/GC, 2011 is a long shot but not impossibe just hoping
TeddyKoochu
11-23-2010, 01:16 PM
Teddy, somebody with a PD of Jul 07 is going to get a GC by Sep 12. The question of visa date being current so that you can file 485 could be in 2011 or 2012. But the visas are going to be there for you to get your GC.
Thanks Q, I agree with you that 2012 is the most likely year of getting GC with a PD of Jul 2007. In 2011 there may be a chance to get EAD / AP but IMHO even that seems less to me as all calculations just take us to Mar - Apr 2007, Jul 2007 is 10K numbers far from that and USCIS-DOS will not go with that big a buffer. However the real question is how they would like to plan for next year assuming the economy and filings stay in the same range. If the dates are not opened up then for 9 months we will hardly have any movement and the chance for 485 filing will come only in Jul - Sep 2012 and if they are able to even associate a cap number with the case then GC will also come by the same year, however if they fail to associate a cap number that may mean another year of wait for GC. However for folks like me getting EAD / AP is a big thing as it helps to get out of the H1B loop which is getting very difficult especially for those of us who work for consulting companies. My H1b expires in Sep 2012 I hope even in the most pessimistic scenario I get EAD / AP by then. However lets all hope for bigger movement. The end of 2011 and 2012 will be interesting the following possibilities are there a) dates made literally current (less likely, I would really like it to happen though) b) Controlled forward movement (Likely, I agree with our good friend Spectator, they may open the gate to push forward a year and retrogress or something calculated based on I140 filing there were some reports on that) c) Dates not being opened up for EB2 I/C and numbers going to EB3 ROW (I believe that this may not happen but cannot be ruled out).
qesehmk
11-23-2010, 01:45 PM
Teddy, if #3 were to be avoided then it is imperative that USCIS moves the date beyond Jul-07 or even into 2008 for EB2I at least 6 months prior to Sep 12. That's how much typically would suffice for normal 485 processing. Right?
So if the date doesn't move to Jul-07 by Mar 12 then EB2 visas will be wasted (and moved to EB3).
Note: - Typo said 2011 earlier on. Corrected to 2012.
Thanks Q, I agree with you that 2012 is the most likely year of getting GC with a PD of Jul 2007. In 2011 there may be a chance to get EAD / AP but IMHO even that seems less to me as all calculations just take us to Mar - Apr 2007, Jul 2007 is 10K numbers far from that and USCIS-DOS will not go with that big a buffer. However the real question is how they would like to plan for next year assuming the economy and filings stay in the same range. If the dates are not opened up then for 9 months we will hardly have any movement and the chance for 485 filing will come only in Jul - Sep 2012 and if they are able to even associate a cap number with the case then GC will also come by the same year, however if they fail to associate a cap number that may mean another year of wait for GC. However for folks like me getting EAD / AP is a big thing as it helps to get out of the H1B loop which is getting very difficult especially for those of us who work for consulting companies. My H1b expires in Sep 2012 I hope even in the most pessimistic scenario I get EAD / AP by then. However lets all hope for bigger movement. The end of 2011 and 2012 will be interesting the following possibilities are there a) dates made literally current (less likely, I would really like it to happen though) b) Controlled forward movement (Likely, I agree with our good friend Spectator, they may open the gate to push forward a year and retrogress or something calculated based on I140 filing there were some reports on that) c) Dates not being opened up for EB2 I/C and numbers going to EB3 ROW (I believe that this may not happen but cannot be ruled out).
TeddyKoochu
11-23-2010, 02:03 PM
Teddy, if #3 were to be avoided then it is imperative that USCIS moves the date beyond Jul-07 or even into 2008 for EB2I at least 6 months prior to Sep 11. That's how much typically would suffice for normal 485 processing. Right?
So if the date doesn't move to Jul-07 by Mar 11 then EB2 visas will be wasted (and moved to EB3).
Lets refine it a bit I guess we are both saying the same thing.
- The chances of the dates reaching Jul 2007 on the strength of SOFAD are less not impossible, maybe less than 10% chances. So in 2011 the chances of wastage are minimal even if they don't move the dates they may still have a buffer of 5K which is good enough to avoid any wastage. However huge fall in EB1 or FB spillover can still accelerate this to Sep 2011 so it cannot be ruled out.
- I fully agree with you the dates must be moved significantly forward prior to Sep 2012 atleast 6 months to a year in advance so that the rule and INA is honored as the numbers go to EB2 I/C rather than EB3 ROW. Numbers will go to EB3 ROW if the gate is opened at the 11th hour I hope DOS plans for that.
- It may be really prudent to have an intake of say 30K EB2 I/C China applications in Sep 2011 itself it does not break the line in anyway those whose dates are earlier and preadjudicated will still get approved first and USCIS / DOS have a good pipeline to work on. You are right this point will be either in late 2007 or early 2008 in terms of PD.
- I believe the big issue is the quarterly spillover not happening and all action for EB2 I/C being virtually limited to the last quarter this is what will make things haphazard.
qesehmk
11-23-2010, 02:52 PM
I think we are in synch. Funny you didn't notice the typo :-) Earlier I said 2011. I meant 2012!
In nutshell I believe the date movement must happen before March 2012 and that too at least until Jul 07 or even into 2008.
Lets refine it a bit I guess we are both saying the same thing.
- The chances of the dates reaching Jul 2007 on the strength of SOFAD are less not impossible, maybe less than 10% chances. So in 2011 the chances of wastage are minimal even if they don't move the dates they may still have a buffer of 5K which is good enough to avoid any wastage. However huge fall in EB1 or FB spillover can still accelerate this to Sep 2011 so it cannot be ruled out.
- I fully agree with you the dates must be moved significantly forward prior to Sep 2012 atleast 6 months to a year in advance so that the rule and INA is honored as the numbers go to EB2 I/C rather than EB3 ROW. Numbers will go to EB3 ROW if the gate is opened at the 11th hour I hope DOS plans for that.
- It may be really prudent to have an intake of say 30K EB2 I/C China applications in Sep 2011 itself it does not break the line in anyway those whose dates are earlier and preadjudicated will still get approved first and USCIS / DOS have a good pipeline to work on. You are right this point will be either in late 2007 or early 2008 in terms of PD.
- I believe the big issue is the quarterly spillover not happening and all action for EB2 I/C being virtually limited to the last quarter this is what will make things haphazard.
Spectator
11-23-2010, 03:00 PM
My Coments Inline, really appreciate your politeness. Thanks for the comment. Politeness costs nothing and lack of it is usually inexcusable.
Not agreeing, or holding a differing position doesn't need to alter that.
I am sure your PD will be Current by the end of FY2012. I admire your stoicism and general good humour throughout an extremely difficult time.
I thought it might be worth expanding on my position to solicit some comment and so that you understand it.
We all agree that EB1 and EB2-ROW hold the key to the amount of SOFAD, as well as FB spillover which is sadly lacking this year.
EB1
Historically, this category has always held up reasonably well and there has been a trend towards increasing numbers of approvals in this Category.
For EB1A and EB1B at least, I think this is fairly recession proof. Even in a recession, there is still a demand for these people.
If any subcategory were to be hit, it would probably be EB1C. This could be significant, since EB1C has made up c. 60% of EB1 approvals in recent years. I don't think it would make much difference to the Fortune 500 type of Company, but I am not sure about the dynamics involving the Consultancy industry and how Companies such as WiPro, TCS etc use this category.
The evidence we have, suggests that EB1 held up very well last FY. If EB1C approvals drop, I think some of that slack will be taken up by increased EB1A and EB1B approvals.
As you alluded to, Trackitt as a tool seems to have lost some of its value for analysing EB1.
It never covered many EB1 applications - judged against the Primary applicant, 0.68% in FY2008, 1.24% in FY2009 and around 0.86% in FY2010.
With such small percentages and the fact that they have varied wildly it becomes very difficult to equate Trackitt approvals to total approvals during the FY.
It was also noticeable last FY that the number of EB1C approvals on Trackitt dropped dramatically. That might have reflected reality, but given that EB1C candidates were getting a lot of flak on the forum, it may also have just reflected fewer people adding their cases. The answer to that question will come with the publication of the Visa Statistics for FY2010 and the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
EB2-ROW
Trackitt ratios have remained fairly consistent for this group at 2.03% in FY2008, 2.19% in FY2009 and probably the same again FY2010.
For FY2010, at around 24-25k ROW approvals, spill across looks like 6-7k, with another 3k from the unused allocations for Mexico and Philippines, giving a combined total of 9-10k.
Whilst I think that ROW approvals might drop a bit, it seems too much of a stretch that combined ROW/M/P approvals would drop from 27-28k to just 13k.
I am aware of the drop in PERM approvals in recent years and the question of backlog reduction that may have been happening in previous years. I don't pretend to have a very good understanding of these factors.
I think the increased speed of PERM approval will offset some of this.
I also have a nagging doubt about the level of backlog reduction there was last year. It comes about through looking at the I-140 figures from the USCIS dashboard.
The figures I have for FY2008 are incomplete, but the totals for the final quarter are 18,109 receipts and 44,620 completions, suggesting that backlog reduction was in progress.
In FY2009, USCIS received 57,010 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 155,482.
That suggests that there was backlog reduction.
In FY2010, USCIS received 77,280 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 73,705.
That is not only a huge increase of I-140 receipts on FY2009, but it also suggests that there was no or little backlog reduction.
As an aside, from the limited data it looks like FY2009 was low and that the full FY2008 might have been similar to FY2010 for receipt numbers. Impossible to say.
I am therefore looking at SOFAD as more in the 25k to low 30k range, rather than the 37k that has been mentioned.
I wonder what you guys think.
qesehmk
11-23-2010, 04:01 PM
Spec i love your detail, analysis and impassionate arguments. I dont see anything that I can really disagree w. As you said, the year book will provide great insight into where the numbers went.
the only place I would differ if at all, would be about backlog reduction. The numbers you quote for 09 and 10 for I140 could also mean that the backlog was already cleared in 2009 and 2010 remained that way. One could argue that in 2010 all these PERM approvals contributed to increase in I140 receipts and approvals. So as you can see USCIS has tried everything it can to beef up EB2-ROW. So in 2011 there is no way other than giving away significant SOFAD to EB2IC. However unfortunately FB spillover is missing and sothe numbers won't be huge.
Thanks for your analysis. You really have a great way of looking at things just like Teddy.
It was also noticeable last FY that the number of EB1C approvals on Trackitt dropped dramatically. That might have reflected reality, but given that EB1C candidates were getting a lot of flak on the forum, it may also have just reflected fewer people adding their cases. The answer to that question will come with the publication of the Visa Statistics for FY2010 and the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
I am aware of the drop in PERM approvals in recent years and the question of backlog reduction that may have been happening in previous years. I don't pretend to have a very good understanding of these factors.
I think the increased speed of PERM approval will offset some of this.
I also have a nagging doubt about the level of backlog reduction there was last year. It comes about through looking at the I-140 figures from the USCIS dashboard.
The figures I have for FY2008 are incomplete, but the totals for the final quarter are 18,109 receipts and 44,620 completions, suggesting that backlog reduction was in progress.
In FY2009, USCIS received 57,010 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 155,482.
That suggests that there was backlog reduction.
In FY2010, USCIS received 77,280 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 73,705.
That is not only a huge increase of I-140 receipts on FY2009, but it also suggests that there was no or little backlog reduction.
TeddyKoochu
11-23-2010, 04:17 PM
Thanks Q, even I felt it was a typo but just wrote a long story instead :). Thanks for your kind words as always and keeping our hopes and expectations realistic and alive.
Thanks Spec for your kind words. Lets discuss EB1 & EB2, I believe you are also EB2 India our situation unfortunately is like jackals and scavengers who will have the left over’s and that too we can have it only in Jul - Sep, if the lions and tigers eat everything we are doomed. All we can do is keep our spirits high as Q keeps saying just keep doing what you are doing and plan your life.
Agree with your comments on EB1 & EB2. I had done a percentage compare of EB1C 2009 V/S 2010 noticed a drop to 1/3rd. I believe that EB1 gave us ~ 5K SOFAD in 2010 while in 2009 it had consumed not only its own cap but bit into EB5. Now when we compare 2010 and 2011 on Trackitt unfortunately early days and with the miniscule representation the drop is 5-6 fold. I believe that EB1C actual fall may not be that drastic it will stabilize at some level, if it goes to even 1/2 of last year we may see EB1 giving 15K SOFAD which could boost the situation. Iam sure though that we may see atleast 10K SOFAD coming from EB1.
With regards EB2 ROW I believe 2010 saw the approvals for 2007, 2008 and 50% of 2009 cases. Perm approvals are coming within a month and EB2 ROW folks can go for concurrent filing so the end to end timing may well be just 6 months now. I agree with you that Trackitt data for EB2 ROW is pretty good. Around 2007 if somebody filed for I140 typically it used to take a year to two that is why maybe you would notice huge numbers in 2008 and 2009. Iam surprised though that the 2009 figures are that high though but it must be early 2009 mainly. Things in 2010 are so streamlined that folks are getting approvals in 2 days. Now coming to EB2 ROW decline refer to post # 142 I believe that Eb2 ROW might fall to 50% of last year the primary reason is that we are dealing with only 1 year of perm I140 rather than 2.5 Yrs last yr so 20K SOFAD from here looks just fine. Now Eb5 is being aggressively advertised this gave 7K last year it might well come down to 5K. All in all the SOFAD will go up to 36-37K. If ~ 6K goes towards catering to PD porting ~ 30K goes towards forward movement so Feb – Apr 2007 is very much in sight. Please critique / comment.
Spectator
11-23-2010, 05:31 PM
Teddy and Q,
One day, I will compose a post that is concise and to the point. One day. :)
I'll hold fire on EB1. I really want to see what happened to EB1C last year.
For EB2, remember that Mexico and Philippines do have approvals as well. They have been around 3k a year combined, but will probably drop somewhat.
Other than that I think the problem is more a philosophical one that I own entirely.
Teddy, I don't doubt your logic at all. You've probably realised that I give great weight to historic data and trends and I don't think I can change that. :p
EB2-ROW has shown itself to be incredibly resilient to changing factors and has had quite stable approval figures.
The demographics of the approvals are probably somewhat different to India and much less reliant on the IT sector and consulting model which has been hit harder than most.
I cannot, at this stage, subscribe to such a huge drop in approvals, despite the very good argument for it. That is my problem.
I admit that has a large degree of "gut feeling" in it.
Approvals in Trackitt are often quite "lumpy" and I think it is probably too early to extrapolate them.
For instance, currently there are 91 primary EB2-ROW approvals (after correcting for country of chargeability) in 54 days. Prorated that would give around 28k approvals for the year using last year's derived %.
Q, I understand what you are saying about the I-140 data. I need to think about it a bit more. If backlog reduction was essentially completed in FY2009, then doesn't that imply that the majority of the 24k I-485 ROW approvals were the result of new PERM / I-140 / I485 filings from FY2010 itself. If so, why would it be any different in FY2011?
That is a genuine question, not a rhetorical one. As I have stated previously I don't feel entirely comfortable in that domain.
That brings me to a last point (honestly!). At some point, we might expect filings to increase as the economy comes out of recession. That will inevitably affect the demand from EB2-ROW and EB1C if it has been affected.
Do you guys have an opinion as to when that will happen? I have a suspicion that we have already reached or passed the low point as it affects EB immigration. That would inevitably reduce potential SOFAD in coming years.
I truly enjoy the discussion and how different approaches merge together.
qesehmk
11-23-2010, 08:38 PM
Spec
For the first part of your question below - the EB2-ROW demand until this year is an artificially boosted demand through clearance of I-140 and PERM backlogs. Now that those queues are more or less empty ... any new demand in EB2ROW will be flowing through all 3 steps in the same year. Traditionally that number at max is 17K (pls see historical normal average). Now the current situation is far from normal and thats why I would imagine that EB2ROW probably would only need 8-12K in 2011. We should expect reasonable fall-across from EB2ROW.
On the second question - when should we expect to see EB demand go up, well my gut feel is that the level of NEW EB filings is inversely proportional to "TRUE TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT" in the US. It would be unbelievably difficult for labor dept to approve any new foreign labor or for USCIS to approve any new I-140 even if it is based on EB1.
Personally I do not see any significant change in 2011 compared to 2010 or 2009. Pls remember just to keep pace with the increasing population the job pool has to go up by 1%. So if it doesn't then effectively it is adding 1% decrease in the total unemployment every year.
So what does this mean for EB? It means a sooner end to their misery than otherwise wouldve been possible.
Q, I understand what you are saying about the I-140 data. I need to think about it a bit more. If backlog reduction was essentially completed in FY2009, then doesn't that imply that the majority of the 24k I-485 ROW approvals were the result of new PERM / I-140 / I485 filings from FY2010 itself. If so, why would it be any different in FY2011?
....
That brings me to a last point (honestly!). At some point, we might expect filings to increase as the economy comes out of recession. That will inevitably affect the demand from EB2-ROW and EB1C if it has been affected.
Do you guys have an opinion as to when that will happen? I have a suspicion that we have already reached or passed the low point as it affects EB immigration. That would inevitably reduce potential SOFAD in coming years.
TeddyKoochu
11-24-2010, 10:48 AM
Spec let’s put it another way we all agree that except for EB1-A and EB1-B all are hit by the recession. So EB2 is definitely going to be hit and 2009 was a really bad year with regards unemployment. FY 2010 saw the approval of 2007, 2008 and 50% 2009 cases. Remember 2007 and early 2008 was still good time. FY 2011 should see the rest of 2009 and 2010 maybe more than 50% because of the high pace of things. So practically the EB2 ROW demand in 2010 could well be half of what we have seen last year. The Trackitt ratio of 245 v/s 129 also kind of confirms this trend when we compare similar times in 2010 and 2011. I do agree with you that SOFAD will probably peak at a certain time and it probably cannot be higher than a certain number however 2011 is different in 2010 primarily in the sense that the backlogs in EB2 ROW are much less now everything is literally current. Had the perm and I140 processes not been speeded up last year we would have had atleast 10K of extra SOFAD. Q is right in his observations all out efforts and exceptional efforts were made to approve every possible case and then only EB2 I/C got SOFAD in the last quarter. Like you I also believe that EB1-C will decline further this year.
TeddyKoochu
12-01-2010, 12:05 PM
Referring to Trackitt following is the trend Comparing Oct - Nov 2009 and 2010.
EB2 ROW 2009 - 155
EB2 ROW 2010 - 88
EB1 2010 - 12 + 14 + 13
EB1 2009 - 35 + 66 + 50
We can kind of see that for both EB2 ROW and EB1 the approvals are down significantly which is good news though its still early days. For the upcoming bulletin I believe that EB3-I will reach Feb 15th 2002, however EB2-I may not move at all sadly because the 750 new numbers are insufficient to cause significant forward movement. However if EB2-I moves by a small duration than it would mean that PD porting is less than 3000 per annum for sure which would be great news as the current prediction budgets 6K for that. Expecting quarterly spillover is a little unrealistic going by past history however if see big movement it can be attributed only to quarterly spillover.
qesehmk
12-01-2010, 12:36 PM
Thanks Teddy. I would imagine that in last year the backlog in 485 as well as the extra clearance of 140 and labor has flushed out ROW pipeline through and through.
So this year it will be mostly NEW demand from this year itself starting from labor through 485. I think thats why those numbers are down for EB2ROW.
EB1 is interesting but I would wait until few more months before we bank it.
Referring to Trackitt following is the trend Comparing Oct - Nov 2009 and 2010.
EB2 ROW 2009 - 155
EB2 ROW 2010 - 88
EB1 2010 - 12 + 14 + 13
EB1 2009 - 35 + 66 + 50
We can kind of see that for both EB2 ROW and EB1 the approvals are down significantly which is good news though its still early days. For the upcoming bulletin I believe that EB3-I will reach Feb 15th 2002, however EB2-I may not move at all sadly because the 750 new numbers are insufficient to cause significant forward movement. However if EB2-I moves by a small duration than it would mean that PD porting is less than 3000 per annum for sure which would be great news as the current prediction budgets 6K for that. Expecting quarterly spillover is a little unrealistic going by past history however if see big movement it can be attributed only to quarterly spillover.
leo07
12-01-2010, 01:29 PM
What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?
TeddyKoochu
12-01-2010, 01:41 PM
What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?
This looks pretty realistic to me, however factors keep changing. But if we go be the percentage reduction approach the drop is pretty significant. atleast the EB2 ROW data is reliable if not EB1. Q can we say so definitively in say 2 more months for now even about EB1?
Thanks Teddy. I would imagine that in last year the backlog in 485 as well as the extra clearance of 140 and labor has flushed out ROW pipeline through and through.
So this year it will be mostly NEW demand from this year itself starting from labor through 485. I think thats why those numbers are down for EB2ROW.
EB1 is interesting but I would wait until few more months before we bank it.
Hypothetical question to you, if EB1 also drops to 50% do you think that there is a chance of the dates crossing Jul 07. IMHO there is a 10% chance of it happening. Assuming that happens everybody whose 485 is filed will likely be approved and the PWMB's like me and Leo will get our chance to file for 485. I can imagine not having FB is a big hit if that was there than the chances were good, however in 2010 the FB component was added mid year so it may still be a little early to throw in the towel on that.
qesehmk
12-01-2010, 02:48 PM
What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?
For EB2I it is about 25. For EB2C it would be much higher given that they don't use trackitt as much. ROW use of trackitt is better. So its ok to use 25 for EB2ROW.
For EB1 though the margin of error would be quite high. And so a better approach - as Teddy suggested - would be to use % reduction.
This looks pretty realistic to me, however factors keep changing. But if we go be the percentage reduction approach the drop is pretty significant. atleast the EB2 ROW data is reliable if not EB1. Q can we say so definitively in say 2 more months for now even about EB1?
Hypothetical question to you, if EB1 also drops to 50% do you think that there is a chance of the dates crossing Jul 07. IMHO there is a 10% chance of it happening. Assuming that happens everybody whose 485 is filed will likely be approved and the PWMB's like me and Leo will get our chance to file for 485. I can imagine not having FB is a big hit if that was there than the chances were good, however in 2010 the FB component was added mid year so it may still be a little early to throw in the towel on that.
Teddy, in 2 months yes %red approach for EB1 would work better because by that time Q1 spillover will have been applied (if at all) for EB1!
If 50% EB 1 drop is confirmed then EB2IC backlog through may 07 will be cleared. Jun-Jul has 6K combined! But as far as EB2IC dates being currrent I think the chance they will be made current (if EB YoY 50% reduction is true) is quite high.
TeddyKoochu
12-01-2010, 03:06 PM
For EB2I it is about 25. For EB2C it would be much higher given that they don't use trackitt as much. ROW use of trackitt is better. So its ok to use 25 for EB2ROW.
For EB1 though the margin of error would be quite high. And so a better approach - as Teddy suggested - would be to use % reduction.
Teddy, in 2 months yes %red approach for EB1 would work better because by that time Q1 spillover will have been applied (if at all) for EB1!
If 50% EB 1 drop is confirmed then EB2IC backlog through may 07 will be cleared. Jun-Jul has 6K combined! But as far as EB2IC dates being currrent I think the chance they will be made current (if EB YoY 50% reduction is true) is quite high.
Thanks Q, the % reduction approach for predictions and calculations is something I picked up from you and our good friend GCP, thanks to both of you for that. Thanks for the answer to the hypothetical question It helps to keep my hopes alive for this year. Let’s wait, watch and see what happens. Is there any news about the DOS annual report being published maybe that may have something on FB Spillover, other than that based on other inputs / news this component won't be there this year.
qesehmk
12-01-2010, 03:43 PM
Thanks Q, the % reduction approach for predictions and calculations is something I picked up from you and our good friend GCP, thanks to both of you for that. Thanks for the answer to the hypothetical question It helps to keep my hopes alive for this year. Let’s wait, watch and see what happens. Is there any news about the DOS annual report being published maybe that may have something on FB Spillover, other than that based on other inputs / news this component won't be there this year.
Sure! I just found out that NVC inventory is out. When plugged into the model it shows 30.5K sofad. Which means dates should move to April 2007 for EB2IC. If EB1 usage is 50% (to be confirmed in next 2-3 months) then the dates becoming current is really high.
leo07
12-01-2010, 04:35 PM
Q, Great if EB1 drops by 50%, in all cases Eb2 ROW must see a significant drop from trackitt data? Also, all these analysis is geared for CIS's current processing rate. If DREAM comes through, not sure CIS will be able to allot same number of resources for EB. I sympathize with DREAM aspirants, just not this year:) I have waited for 1/3 of my life already, really!
Teddy, Thanks for the multiple. Hope & pray we get through this year.
leo07
12-06-2010, 01:17 PM
Similar perspective from Ron, of course with no dates as to when the EB2 will start moving:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
Spectator
12-06-2010, 01:58 PM
Similar perspective from Ron, of course with no dates as to when the EB2 will start moving:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.
The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.
Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.
The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.
If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.
The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.
Ron says:
The answer lies in the large numbers of India EB3 cases that have been and continue to be upgraded to EB2 classification. If there were no upgrade cases, the India EB2 cutoff date would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012.
A complete and utter load of hogwash!
Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 02:04 PM
ROW as I see looked at was: ALL-IC
OK. I look at ROW as ALL - ICMP
M & P have their own approvals in addition to my definition of ROW. In general, they contribute around 3k to SOFAD in EB2.
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 02:08 PM
Spec, take it easy. People sometimes make genuine mistakes, sometimes they genuinely want to make mistakes. We should keep focused on what we are doing. We should be proud that we were the first to say predict significant EB2 movement and we have been the first to mention that significant movement will only happen Jul-Sep. If we keep objective focus we will continue to provide good information. But lets not criticize others.
From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.
The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.
Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.
The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.
If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.
The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.
Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 02:39 PM
Spec, take it easy. People sometimes make genuine mistakes, sometimes they genuinely want to make mistakes. We should keep focused on what we are doing. We should be proud that we were the first to say predict significant EB2 movement and we have been the first to mention that significant movement will only happen Jul-Sep. If we keep objective focus we will continue to provide good information. But lets not criticize others.
Q,
If you don't believe it is warranted, then fair enough.
However, unlike us, Ron is an Immigration Attorney. He has a special place in many peoples hearts and his opinions carry great weight in the community.
His article implies a lack of knowledge about the visa allocation system, which I know is not the case.
More likely, it has been posted without sufficient thought or research. Unlike a previous article, at least this is an opinion that won't cause any harm to the immigrant journey for anybody.
I think it is relevant to post a criticism, with justifications, since I don't believe this forum will be forecasting that EB2-I Cut Off dates "would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012".
I will not mention the subject again.
leo07
12-06-2010, 03:23 PM
I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.
IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?
Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.
No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this:)) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.
From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.
The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.
Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.
The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.
If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.
The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.
Ron says:
A complete and utter load of hogwash!
Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 03:45 PM
I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.
IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?
Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.
No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this:)) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.
Leo,
I totally agree with your post, except for one point.
Ron is implicitly talking about SOFAD, since he is making a prediction as to where Cut Off dates may move by mid 2012. His comment is saying that not only will the IC backlog to August 2007 be cleared by mid 2012, but so will the IC backlog from September 2007 to late 2010/early 2011 as well. It is just not possible with one year's spillover (or even 2 years IMO). That is the issue I have. Just look at the number of approved PERMs for 2008-2010 (57k for India alone). That translates into a huge backlog in EB2, regardless of the EB2:EB3 split used.
Porting or no Porting, the Cut off dates weren't going to move very quickly, with only 250 visas available per month.
I REALLY won't mention it again.
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 03:51 PM
Spec I respect you tremendously. So actually I was out of the line to tell you what you should or shouldn't criticize. I think the statement you quoted from Ron is ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY wrong. We are on the same page about that.
The reality of EB3 upgrades is that they are between 3-5K per year. That's about it. It is not easy to switch job when economy is doing bad. And then have somebody sponsor your GC ... that's too much to ask. So EB2IC folks be peaceful on that matter. EB3 is not going to eat your lunch. This year ROW demand will be less compared to previous year and that will give EB2IC a boost and likely clear until Jun 2007.
As per why somebody would project EB3-2 conversions ? Well if that somebody is an attorney.... go figure!!!
Q,
If you don't believe it is warranted, then fair enough.
However, unlike us, Ron is an Immigration Attorney. He has a special place in many peoples hearts and his opinions carry great weight in the community.
His article implies a lack of knowledge about the visa allocation system, which I know is not the case.
More likely, it has been posted without sufficient thought or research. Unlike a previous article, at least this is an opinion that won't cause any harm to the immigrant journey for anybody.
I think it is relevant to post a criticism, with justifications, since I don't believe this forum will be forecasting that EB2-I Cut Off dates "would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012".
I will not mention the subject again.
I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.
IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?
Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.
No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this:)) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 04:43 PM
Spec, actually cut off dates would move (albeit very slowly) if there were no porting. But because there is porting that is offseting those 250 visa per month the dates won't be moving until SOFAD comes. Right?
Porting or no Porting, the Cut off dates weren't going to move very quickly, with only 250 visas available per month.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 04:47 PM
So actually I was out of the line to tell you what you should or shouldn't criticize.
Q,
The respect is mutual. As moderator of this forum, you have every right to comment and suggest, if you believe the comments overstep the mark. I totally respect that and please continue to do so.
I can be ..err.. rather passionate at times and by contrast you always seem so level headed. :) Maybe I need reigning in at times.....
I admit, perhaps I might deliberately phrase things to provoke discussion from time to time...... ;)
The reality of EB3 upgrades is that they are between 3-5K per year. That's about it. It is not easy to switch job when economy is doing bad. And then have somebody sponsor your GC ... that's too much to ask. So EB2IC folks be peaceful on that matter. EB3 is not going to eat your lunch.
I totally agree that Porting is portrayed as some kind of bogeyman at times - it isn't a view I personally subscribe to. In fact I agree with Porting. As you say, it's no easy task. Given that EB2 currently essentially consumes all spillover, Porting cases only reduce the gain slightly.
This year ROW demand will be less compared to previous year and that will give EB2IC a boost and likely clear until Jun 2007.
Until there is evidence to the contrary, I have to disagree.
The low estimate for EB2-ROW was predicated on the decreasing PERM approvals in FY2008 and FY2009.
The assumption was that level would continue through FY2010 and into FY2011. It was extremely reasonable, given the state of the economy.
The PERM figures for FY2010 suggest that assumption no longer holds true.
Unless there is a substantial slowdown in approvals in FY2011, then the estimate must rise IMO.
Is that possible? Of course it is. A large increase in supervised recruitment or auditing of PERMS would certainly have that effect. Or an increase in processing times for PERM/I-140/I485.
Is it probable? An entirely different question.
I would be interested in views as to why FY2011 would see a drastic slowdown compared to FY2010.
I suspect that only the passage of time will yield an answer.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 04:54 PM
Spec, actually cut off dates would move (albeit very slowly) if there were no porting. But because there is porting that is offseting those 250 visa per month the dates won't be moving until SOFAD comes. Right?That is entirely possible, maybe probable. It is what I would expect.
If there was any movement, it might imply that there were fewer than 250 Porting cases approved that month.
But, we are talking about the Visa Office, so who knows.
I certainly don't expect the dates to retrogress, even if Porting is much higher than 250 per month. The VO must be well aware that spillover will cover the difference, so they will treat it in a similar way to their approach to EB1.
PS Yay! I've lost the Junior moniker.
Sunny.
12-06-2010, 06:21 PM
This could be out of context to what you ppl are discussing but thought I will post it anyhow as I see it on trackitt and thought it could be of some use(and give some hope) for all the ppl waiting on the EB2 GC line.
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
Sunny.
12-06-2010, 06:25 PM
And I forgot .....you guys are really doing a tremendous job of analyizing the visa numbers though I would like to see a text field where I could just enter my priority and boom you guys can predict when my dates will be current..... :-)....wishful thinking....:-)
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 06:27 PM
Q,
I would be interested in views as to why FY2011 (EB2-ROW) would see a drastic slowdown compared to FY2010.
Spec here is why. Look at following ROW EB2 data from trackit.
485 pending - 228
140 pending - 98
labor pending - 27 (Atlanta 0, chicago 27).
At 1:40 ratio for EB2ROW this is about 14K total.
What does this pipeline tell you? It tells that people who already were in the pipeline are being pushed ahead but new replenishment is low (or fast approvals). Even if they are fast approvals only 57 were approved in last 2 months compared to full year 2010 at 550. So 57 is hardly 10% in 2 months (i.e. 60% in 2011 as compared to 2010). So we will see 40% less EB2 demand in 2011. Couple that with fact that EB2 last year gave us at least 10-15K SOFAD even when there was high demand. So 60% of 25K would be 15K demand (exactly whats in the pipeline). That gives 14K fall across. Add EB1 FD 6K + IC quota 6K. Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.
Now if for some reason EB4/5/1 deliver more then that's upside.
Spectator
12-06-2010, 08:33 PM
Spec here is why. Look at following ROW EB2 data from trackit.
485 pending - 228
140 pending - 98
labor pending - 27 (Atlanta 0, chicago 27).
At 1:40 ratio for EB2ROW this is about 14K total.
What does this pipeline tell you? It tells that people who already were in the pipeline are being pushed ahead but new replenishment is low (or fast approvals). Even if they are fast approvals only 57 were approved in last 2 months compared to full year 2010 at 550. So 57 is hardly 10% in 2 months (i.e. 60% in 2011 as compared to 2010). So we will see 40% less EB2 demand in 2011. Couple that with fact that EB2 last year gave us at least 10-15K SOFAD even when there was high demand. So 60% of 25K would be 15K demand (exactly whats in the pipeline). That gives 14K fall across. Add EB1 FD 6K + IC quota 6K. Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.
Now if for some reason EB4/5/1 deliver more then that's upside.Q,
I tend to look at primary applicants only and the ratio for those is 45.
To date this fiscal year, there are 98 EB2/EB2-NIW I-485 approvals in Trackitt, which equates to 4,475 actual approvals. Prorated, that equates to 24,379 approvals in a full year.
In addition, there are 102 pending I-485 from 2009 to the end of FY2010, which potentially equates to a further 4,658 approvals. If they are approved over the next 2 months, then the prorated approvals for the year becomes 27,399.
Trackitt has never been a good source for PERM data, certainly not for ROW.
The last 2 months of I-485 approvals only represent part of applications that started life in FY2010 or earlier but will be approved in FY2011. None of the approvals to date were submitted in FY2011. There are 8 months worth of applications that will be submitted and approved in FY2011.
SOFAD was higher last year because the ROW approvals contained a proportion of applications submitted in FY2009, when applications were particularly low. They accounted for 4.5k of approvals, whilst FY2010 submitted applications accounted for 20k of the total of 24.5k.
FY2011 does not have that effect, as applications at the end of FY2010 were high, judging by the PERM and USCIS dashboard data.
I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.
As you can see, I am using the same source of data as you, yet reaching an entirely different conclusion.
I just think it is too early to draw meaningful conclusions based on Trackitt data - we are only two months into the FY. After 6 months, possibly.
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 08:49 PM
Spec
that's fine. Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.
Regarding primary vs secondary applicants .... that kind of differentiation doesn't help at all. If any it makes it less accurate. Think about it.
Q,
I tend to look at primary applicants only and the ratio for those is 45.
To date this fiscal year, there are 98 EB2/EB2-NIW I-485 approvals in Trackitt, which equates to 4,475 actual approvals. Prorated, that equates to 24,379 approvals in a full year.
In addition, there are 102 pending I-485 from 2009 to the end of FY2010, which potentially equates to a further 4,658 approvals. That would bring the total to 29,037 approvals for the year.
Trackitt has never been a good source for PERM data, certainly not for ROW.
The last 2 months of I-485 approvals only represent part of applications that started life in FY2010 or earlier but will be approved in FY2011. None of the approvals to date were submitted in FY2011. There are 8 months worth of FY2011 applications that can be approved in FY2011.
SOFAD was higher last year because the ROW approvals contained a proportion of applications submitted in FY2009, when applications were particularly low. They accounted for 4.5k of approvals, whilst FY2010 submitted applications accounted for 20k of the total of 24.5k.
FY2011 does not have that effect, as applications at the end of FY2010 were high, judging by the PERM and USCIS dashboard data.
I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.
As you can see, I am using the same source of data as you, yet reaching an entirely different conclusion.
I just think it is too early to draw meaningful conclusions based on Trackitt data - we are only two months into the FY. After 6 months, possibly.
qesehmk
12-06-2010, 09:00 PM
sunny welcome to blog. What you suggest is on my to-do-list but may be 6 months from now. Sorry.
And I forgot .....you guys are really doing a tremendous job of analyizing the visa numbers though I would like to see a text field where I could just enter my priority and boom you guys can predict when my dates will be current..... :-)....wishful thinking....:-)
Spectator
12-06-2010, 10:26 PM
Spec
that's fine. Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.
Regarding primary vs secondary applicants .... that kind of differentiation doesn't help at all. If any it makes it less accurate. Think about it.Q,
26k SOFAD is my most optimistic figure. If pressed, I think it will be lower than that, probably no more than 20k.
Use of Primary only data from Trackitt makes the calculation far more accurate.
Entry of Dependants on Trackitt is extremely spotty, inconsistent and does not represent the actual 2.1 total ratio for EB2 (i.e 1.1 Dependants per Primary applicant).
As an example, for FY2009, Trackitt for all EB2, shows 1,469 Primary approvals and just 136 Dependant approvals. In fact, there were 22,098 Primary Approvals and 23,454 Dependent approvals for EB2 in FY2009 (DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2009).
By using only Primary data, the proper % of c. 3.22% can be calculated. The same applies to subsets of the data such as ROW.
If you take Primary and Dependant data from Trackitt, you can not be sure of the % factor to use, since entry of Dependant data is not consistent. Only Primary cases are reliable.
bieber
12-07-2010, 10:47 AM
Q,
regardless of certified/certified+expired confusion, do u see the dates moving to June2007 by Jul-Sep 2011?
I think the confusion is only about what happens for future applications
bieber
12-07-2010, 11:06 AM
is there any mistake in Ron's numbers? FY2009 really gave only 10,000 EB2I approvals?
leo07
12-07-2010, 11:36 AM
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525
December 2010 Demand Data:
January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850
leo07
12-07-2010, 11:53 AM
EB2I could grab only 25 visas with PD's in 2006, out of possible 300. Does it mean that the remaining 275 were consumed by EB3-EB2 upgrades?
qesehmk
12-07-2010, 12:14 PM
That's a good logical conclusion.
EB2I could grab only 25 visas with PD's in 2006, out of possible 300. Does it mean that the remaining 275 were consumed by EB3-EB2 upgrades?
leo07
12-07-2010, 12:42 PM
This is both gloomy and bright at the same time...
gloomy: EB3-EB2 upgrades consumed 275 off 300 visas
bright : They consumed only 275. Leaving some hope. If they were to consume all, we'd never know the end of line. I'm sure it's too early to assume the end of Eb3-EB2 upgrade.
In the worst case, however is that the 25 that we assumed direct EB2, are in fact really upgrades, but from a 2006 bucket :)
qesehmk
12-07-2010, 05:37 PM
pls note ... this data doesn't represent all of 485 backlog. This is probably 90% of total 485 backlog. This data is all documentarily qualified candidates that are ready to go green but are waiting for visa availability.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525
December 2010 Demand Data:
January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850
leo07
12-07-2010, 06:04 PM
Absolutely. However, we could consider 33,275 * 1.1 as EB2IC demand(present + possible 485's) before 2008 to get to a total EB2 demand for 2011.
Like, with addition of Porting + percentage(x %) of approved PERM apps for a 12 month window
Please feel free to correct me here.
balac76
12-09-2010, 01:22 AM
This 33,850 might be applications upto April 2007 since April candidates would have got the labor approval in 4-5 months as per trackitt and would have dont concurrent filing. Since May 2007 count is unknown. Please correct me if my understanding is wrong.
Seniors, any thoughts when 2009 applications will come into picture? 2013 to be conservative?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525
December 2010 Demand Data:
January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850
qesehmk
12-09-2010, 09:46 AM
Absolutely. However, we could consider 33,275 * 1.1 as EB2IC demand(present + possible 485's) before 2008 to get to a total EB2 demand for 2011.
Like, with addition of Porting + percentage(x %) of approved PERM apps for a 12 month window
Please feel free to correct me here.
That's fine. Approximation is fine too. As long as people understand that what demand data shows is different from 485 inventory. Funnily demand data should also include in theory the CP demand whereas 485 inventory wouldnt include it.
So in theory demand data could be higher than 485 inventory. But of course it never is.
qesehmk
12-09-2010, 09:49 AM
That's why we coined the term PWMB. Its hard to say since what date that is true because for many people it would be different. However what we have established in the past is that that number is 7% of 485 filed in 2007.
As per 2009 ... 2013 sounds reasonable.
This 33,850 might be applications upto April 2007 since April candidates would have got the labor approval in 4-5 months as per trackitt and would have dont concurrent filing. Since May 2007 count is unknown. Please correct me if my understanding is wrong.
Seniors, any thoughts when 2009 applications will come into picture? 2013 to be conservative?
Spectator
12-09-2010, 11:38 PM
Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.
I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.
Spec
Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.
Q,
I've continued to think about why we would arrive at different dates for the same SOFAD figure.
I calculate in a similar, yet different manner to you.
How do you factor in Porting when arriving at a forward projection?
Looking at your spreadsheet, it occurred to me that the 4k Porting cases should (might) be shown as new demand for FY2011, yet IC (mainly India I think) shows zero demand.
That would account for the difference between December 2006 and February 2007, since there are 4,196 USCIS I & C cases for Jan/Feb 2007.
It may be a coincidence. I'm just throwing ideas out for you to consider.
qesehmk
12-10-2010, 08:06 AM
Q,
I've continued to think about why we would arrive at different dates for the same SOFAD figure.
I calculate in a similar, yet different manner to you.
How do you factor in Porting when arriving at a forward projection?
Looking at your spreadsheet, it occurred to me that the 4k Porting cases should (might) be shown as new demand for FY2011, yet IC (mainly India I think) shows zero demand.
That would account for the difference between December 2006 and February 2007, since there are 4,196 USCIS I & C cases for Jan/Feb 2007.
It may be a coincidence. I'm just throwing ideas out for you to consider.
No . I have assumed demand inbult into the backlog. Thats the reason the backlog numberss won't exactly match with the ones published by USCIS. I have asssumed pwmb at 7% for entire backlog for each month.
Spectator
12-10-2010, 12:55 PM
No . I have assumed demand inbult into the backlog. Thats the reason the backlog numberss won't exactly match with the ones published by USCIS. I have asssumed pwmb at 7% for entire backlog for each month.
Q.
I thought so, otherwise the backlog you use for EB2-IC couldn't be so high.
Let me try to explain why I think it only clears to the end of December 2006.
One figure we can absolutely agree on is the number of EB2-IC application shown in the Oct 1,2010 USCIS Inventory.
That is 11,404 for China and 24,254 for India - a total of 35,658.
In a world where that represented the entire EB2 world, with no approvals outside of that Inventory, SOFAD of 26,000 would move the PD to the end of March 2007, which requires 26,368 visas.
To move to the end of December 2006 requires 20,135 visas and to the end of February 2007 requires 24,331 visas.
However, not every approval affects this USCIS total, since the EB2 universe also includes CP approvals and new approvals in FY2011 due to Porting, PWMB and District Office cases. None of these cases are included in the Oct 1, 2010 totals.
So the USCIS Inventory does not, in reality, reduce by 26,000. My figures allow for 4,000 Porting Cases and 2,227 other cases due to the other reasons - a total of 6,227.
Therefore the USCIS Inventory will actually only reduce by 26,000 - 6,227 = 19,773. That is enough to nearly clear December 2006, but 4,558 too few too clear February 2007.
If you want to look at it using the backlog, then 35,658 + 6,227 = 41,885 (similar to yours).
However the amount of visas required to reach a particular PD has also increased, so it now needs 20,135 + 6,227 = to clear December 2006 and 24,331 + 6,227 = 30,558 to clear February 2007.
I hope that explanation helps you in resolving the discrepancy.
As a PS, I looked back at Teddy's figures. He calculated that to reach the end of :
December 2006 needed 25,909 visas
February 2007 needed 31,705 visas
Month-Year India China PDPorting PWMB CP+LocalOffice Total Monthly Cumulative Sum
Dec-06 1,865 768 500 200 100 3,433 25,909
Feb-07 1,431 594 500 200 100 2,825 31,705
so that is roughly in line with my figures of 26,362 & 30,558 respectively.
qesehmk
12-11-2010, 01:24 AM
Spec
I will look into this and respond but unfortunately I am off to a 2 week bus trip. So until then you Teddy and others hold the lines!!
Q.
I thought so, otherwise the backlog you use for EB2-IC couldn't be so high.
Let me try to explain why I think it only clears to the end of December 2006.
One figure we can absolutely agree on is the number of EB2-IC application shown in the Oct 1,2010 USCIS Inventory.
That is 11,404 for China and 24,254 for India - a total of 35,658.
In a world where that represented the entire EB2 world, with no approvals outside of that Inventory, SOFAD of 26,000 would move the PD to the end of March 2007, which requires 26,368 visas.
To move to the end of December 2006 requires 20,135 visas and to the end of February 2007 requires 24,331 visas.
However, not every approval affects this USCIS total, since the EB2 universe also includes CP approvals and new approvals in FY2011 due to Porting, PWMB and District Office cases. None of these cases are included in the Oct 1, 2010 totals.
So the USCIS Inventory does not, in reality, reduce by 26,000. My figures allow for 4,000 Porting Cases and 2,227 other cases due to the other reasons - a total of 6,227.
Therefore the USCIS Inventory will actually only reduce by 26,000 - 6,227 = 19,773. That is enough to nearly clear December 2006, but 4,558 too few too clear February 2007.
If you want to look at it using the backlog, then 35,658 + 6,227 = 41,885 (similar to yours).
However the amount of visas required to reach a particular PD has also increased, so it now needs 20,135 + 6,227 = 26,362 to clear December 2006 and 24,331 + 6,227 = 30,558 to clear February 2007.
I hope that explanation helps you in resolving the discrepancy.
Spectator
12-11-2010, 10:40 AM
Spec
I will look into this and respond but unfortunately I am off to a 2 week bus trip. So until then you Teddy and others hold the lines!!
Q,
Pleasure I hope!
Hope you have a great time.
Teddy seems to be away as well.
PS I am starting to understand your Current-Current argument as it affects EB2-ROW. I haven't integrated it into my thinking completely yet and how it relates to the published I-140 data. I am certainly learning a lot about the PERM system. I am finding it quite educational and I still have a lot to learn and understand.
GlimmerOfHope
12-11-2010, 08:25 PM
Here is my first post. Well done with the analysis.
Is any of you guys considering a a EB3-ROW to EB2-ROW porting at all in your calculations? If not that number could eat away the spill across in 4th Qtr.
I just see the EB3-EB2 porting included but is it only EB3I-EB2I or row included.
Spectator
12-11-2010, 10:40 PM
Here is my first post. Well done with the analysis.
Is any of you guys considering a a EB3-ROW to EB2-ROW porting at all in your calculations? If not that number could eat away the spill across in 4th Qtr.
I just see the EB3-EB2 porting included but is it only EB3I-EB2I or row included.
That is an extremely astute question.
I can only speak personally.
I am allowing 4k TOTAL EB3-EB2 Porting cases from all nationalities.
I think they will be almost entirely Indian cases.
The reason I say that is:
a) EB3-India Cut Off Date is far earlier than EB3-ROW.
EB3-ROW will probably clear the backlog to August 2007 in 2 years, as long as there is not too much "invisible demand", so the pressure to Port is much less. If EB3-ROW Cut Off date moves forward more slowly than expected this year, then maybe the pressure will increase, but it won't affect this year.
b) EB3-ROW is not so heavily concentrated in the Consulting business model as India.
I get the impression that it harder for EB3-ROW to find either existing or new Employers willing to start the process for an EB2 PERM and I-140. Almost all the talk about Porting on other forums such as Trackitt is by EB3-I.
China. as always, remains a complete unknown.
I'm sure Q and Teddy will also give their views when they return.
parsvnath
12-12-2010, 08:11 PM
Hi Q, Spec and Teddy
I am a big fan (to be honest) for this thread for facilitating meaningful discussion and keeping people's hope alive wrt GC. I am a new member and have been following this thread from Immigration Voice days. Keep up the good spirit and discussions.
Coming to my question....Is there a meaningful explanation for the below discrepancy for EB2 India 485 report. As you can see below (exlcuing May 2006 where there is a huge difference between may and oct reports which is due to partial approvals from start of the year), the oct report is consistently less in number during Oct report compared to May report except May 2007 and June 2007 where Oct Report is higher than May Report. Excluding May 2006, in net there are 470 fewer cases in oct report compared to May report for EB2 India. if porting is happening, this should be otherway around. Unless i am missing something fundamentally wrong (which i don;t think i am), this seems pretty weird for me.
Oct report May Report
1-May 1058 1398 340
1-Jun 1629 1677 48
1-Jul 1494 1538 44
1-Aug 1644 1662 18
1-Sep 1683 1702 19
1-Oct 1703 1729 26
1-Nov 1691 1746 55
1-Dec 1865 1887 22
Jan-07 1505 1528 23
Feb-07 1431 1447 16
Mar-07 1353 1377 24
Apr-07 1370 1394 24
May-07 1123 1043 -80
Jun-07 1307 1296 -11
Jul-07 1518 1747 229
Aug-07 202 215 13
qesehmk
12-13-2010, 12:09 AM
Agreee w Spec. That's exactly how i see it.
That is an extremely astute question.
I can only speak personally.
I am allowing 4k TOTAL EB3-EB2 Porting cases from all nationalities.
I think they will be almost entirely Indian cases.
The reason I say that is:
a) EB3-India Cut Off Date is far earlier than EB3-ROW.
EB3-ROW will probably clear the backlog to August 2007 in 2 years, as long as there is not too much "invisible demand", so the pressure to Port is much less. If EB3-ROW Cut Off date moves forward more slowly than expected this year, then maybe the pressure will increase, but it won't affect this year.
b) EB3-ROW is not so heavily concentrated in the Consulting business model as India.
I get the impression that it harder for EB3-ROW to find either existing or new Employers willing to start the process for an EB2 PERM and I-140. Almost all the talk about Porting on other forums such as Trackitt is by EB3-I.
China. as always, remains a complete unknown.
I'm sure Q and Teddy will also give their views when they return.
qesehmk
12-13-2010, 12:16 AM
Parsvanath welcome and thanks for a great observations!
The only thing I can think of when I look at this is that probably USCIS is that the decrease may be because of 3 things:
1) Denials (good probability )
2) Withdrawals (some probability)
3) Upgrade to EB1 (low probability)
Others pls comment as appropriate. Thanks again Parsvanath.
Hi Q, Spec and Teddy
I am a big fan (to be honest) for this thread for facilitating meaningful discussion and keeping people's hope alive wrt GC. I am a new member and have been following this thread from Immigration Voice days. Keep up the good spirit and discussions.
Coming to my question....Is there a meaningful explanation for the below discrepancy for EB2 India 485 report. As you can see below (exlcuing May 2006 where there is a huge difference between may and oct reports which is due to partial approvals from start of the year), the oct report is consistently less in number during Oct report compared to May report except May 2007 and June 2007 where Oct Report is higher than May Report. Excluding May 2006, in net there are 470 fewer cases in oct report compared to May report for EB2 India. if porting is happening, this should be otherway around. Unless i am missing something fundamentally wrong (which i don;t think i am), this seems pretty weird for me.
Oct report May Report
1-May 1058 1398 340
1-Jun 1629 1677 48
1-Jul 1494 1538 44
1-Aug 1644 1662 18
1-Sep 1683 1702 19
1-Oct 1703 1729 26
1-Nov 1691 1746 55
1-Dec 1865 1887 22
Jan-07 1505 1528 23
Feb-07 1431 1447 16
Mar-07 1353 1377 24
Apr-07 1370 1394 24
May-07 1123 1043 -80
Jun-07 1307 1296 -11
Jul-07 1518 1747 229
Aug-07 202 215 13
parsvnath
12-13-2010, 11:19 AM
Thanks for your reply. When someone upgrades, my understanding is that they keep the old petition. In that case, it should be mostly denials and withdrawals. Also during pre-adjudication, can USCIS deny a petition? don;t they have to technically wait till 485 approval/denial when dates become current. also i am not sure if companies withdraw 485 petition since they might incur a fee doing so.....
Also do you guys think, we should factor this 5% reduction in the model and forecast the new date movement?
Parsvanath welcome and thanks for a great observations!
The only thing I can think of when I look at this is that probably USCIS is that the decrease may be because of 3 things:
1) Denials (good probability )
2) Withdrawals (some probability)
3) Upgrade to EB1 (low probability)
Others pls comment as appropriate. Thanks again Parsvanath.
kd2008
12-13-2010, 12:58 PM
They may be folks who abandoned the GC process and moved back to home country. I personally know at least 4 families who did that. They wrote a letter to USCIS about abandoning their application and they got a letter back saying that their application was withdrawn.
TeddyKoochu
12-13-2010, 02:16 PM
Q,
Teddy seems to be away as well.
You are right I was away for a week on vacation, back now, will go through all posts and answer one by one. Thanks for your very detailed analysis posts they are a pleasure to read.
kd2008,
It also suggests it will be a very long time before EB2-I becomes Current in the true sense of the word. That matters to EB3.
Spec I filly agree with the statement EB2-I being current is probably several years away if ever. Another thing is that few month’s difference in PD for EB2 India may actually mean a year for getting actual GC because as you say practically half the demand comes from India itself.
TeddyKoochu
12-13-2010, 02:41 PM
That is an extremely astute question.
I can only speak personally.
I am allowing 4k TOTAL EB3-EB2 Porting cases from all nationalities.
I think they will be almost entirely Indian cases.
The reason I say that is:
a) EB3-India Cut Off Date is far earlier than EB3-ROW.
EB3-ROW will probably clear the backlog to August 2007 in 2 years, as long as there is not too much "invisible demand", so the pressure to Port is much less. If EB3-ROW Cut Off date moves forward more slowly than expected this year, then maybe the pressure will increase, but it won't affect this year.
b) EB3-ROW is not so heavily concentrated in the Consulting business model as India.
I get the impression that it harder for EB3-ROW to find either existing or new Employers willing to start the process for an EB2 PERM and I-140. Almost all the talk about Porting on other forums such as Trackitt is by EB3-I.
China. as always, remains a complete unknown.
I'm sure Q and Teddy will also give their views when they return.
Agreee w Spec. That's exactly how i see it.
Spec thanks for the details Iam in complete agreement with you. In my model I have budgeted 6K of porting to be safe and conservative. Now the inventory and demand data should actually update for all these transitions. Reading the demand data I notice that the EB2 India demand is exactly for Jan 2011 bulletin the same as it was for Oct 2010 bulletin while China is down by 750. If we extrapolate this it would mean ~ 3K porting from EB3 - EB2 India. I agree with you that ROW porting is smaller, the likelihood of porting happening for India is much higher because the disparirity between EB2 and EB3 is way too much and unlike EB3 ROW which is atleast moving EB3-I is in a hopeless situation with 2.8K annual cap. Coming to consulting companies I do agree that they are more likely to file in EB2 (I agree with that as I work for one) however these days the situation is so bad that most of them are finding it hard even to file for h1 extensions in the yester years you are right about your observation. However be it any kind of company the objective of any business is to make money unfortunately for retrogressed countries it seems that keeping a person for the longest possible time is a good way for all companies / employers.
TeddyKoochu
12-13-2010, 02:46 PM
Q / Parsvanath & KD2008, I believe that you have listed all the factors for the inventory difference. I believe that rather than having any factors it would be best just to rewrite or amend the posts with the latest inventory and then intersect with the SOFAD.
parsvnath
12-13-2010, 03:03 PM
Teddy - I am lost. If what I am saying is correct and withdrawals and denials are happening, then porting is immaterial. What do you think?
Spec thanks for the details Iam in complete agreement with you. In my model I have budgeted 6K of porting to be safe and conservative. Now the inventory and demand data should actually update for all these transitions. Reading the demand data I notice that the EB2 India demand is exactly for Jan 2011 bulletin the same as it was for Oct 2010 bulletin while China is down by 750. If we extrapolate this it would mean ~ 3K porting from EB3 - EB2 India. I agree with you that ROW porting is smaller, the likelihood of porting happening for India is much higher because the disparirity between EB2 and EB3 is way too much and unlike EB3 ROW which is atleast moving EB3-I is in a hopeless situation with 2.8K annual cap. Coming to consulting companies I do agree that they are more likely to file in EB2 (I agree with that as I work for one) however these days the situation is so bad that most of them are finding it hard even to file for h1 extensions in the yester years you are right about your observation. However be it any kind of company the objective of any business is to make money unfortunately for retrogressed countries it seems that keeping a person for the longest possible time is a good way for all companies / employers.
TeddyKoochu
12-13-2010, 03:36 PM
Teddy - I am lost. If what I am saying is correct and withdrawals and denials are happening, then porting is immaterial. What do you think?
Many thanks, I think your observation is significant. I do agree with you that with your observations on denials and withdrawals. There could be some other aspects like multiple applications within a family and one being approved and the other could be cross chargeability. Now all these factors should cause inventory reduction as you correctly mention it should be significant the numbers are also suggesting the same. However my interpretation that since EB2-I demand is constant and only 750 PD porting happened is incorrect it means PD porting is more than, probably after all 6k of porting will happen but good to know its being partly offset.
Spectator
12-13-2010, 04:29 PM
In my model I have budgeted 6K of porting to be safe and conservative.
Teddy,
Welcome back.
I remembered that you used 6k Porting, or 500 per month.
By a quirk in the numbers, IF SOFAD was 26k and that cleared December 2006, then that would be 8 months movement and Porting under your assumptions would be 8 * 500 = 4,000.
A strange coincidence. I realize you believe SOFAD will be greater than that, so Porting would represent a greater number for you.
TeddyKoochu
12-13-2010, 05:24 PM
Teddy,
Welcome back.
I remembered that you used 6k Porting, or 500 per month.
By a quirk in the numbers, IF SOFAD was 26k and that cleared December 2006, then that would be 8 months movement and Porting under your assumptions would be 8 * 500 = 4,000.
A strange coincidence. I realize you believe SOFAD will be greater than that, so Porting would represent a greater number for you.
Spec, Thanks. I believe that I have placed PD porting at a wrong level in my spreadsheet rather than having it as a column and saying it should be 500 per month it should be an offset at the top level saying 6000. However Parvsanath brings out a very good point about the denials / withdrawals which seem to be offsetting porting. We should call porting as effective porting which would mean that someone who ports is current and can be approved. I believe Future porting i.e. somebody with a PD of 2008 porting is not very relevant. Based on all the factors looks like we will be porting at 6K and it will be offset partly by the denials / withdrawals.
Spectator
12-13-2010, 08:20 PM
Spec, Thanks. I believe that I have placed PD porting at a wrong level in my spreadsheet rather than having it as a column and saying it should be 500 per month it should be an offset at the top level saying 6000. However Parvsanath brings out a very good point about the denials / withdrawals which seem to be offsetting porting. We should call porting as effective porting which would mean that someone who ports is current and can be approved. I believe Future porting i.e. somebody with a PD of 2008 porting is not very relevant. Based on all the factors looks like we will be porting at 6K and it will be offset partly by the denials / withdrawals.Teddy,
Glad that helped.
I also offset the Porting at the very top level, since, as you realized, any Porting numbers beyond where the Cut Off date is going to move to are not not counted otherwise.
Having said that, the concept of x number per month is equally valid and becomes self adjusting depending on the forecast IF Porting was coming equally from all PDs.
On the assumption that most Porting cases will be immediately Current, the top level approach is probably the better one IMO.
Would I be correct in assuming that your previous figures would therefore become:
Month-Year India China PD_Porting PWMB CP+Local_Office Total_Monthly Cumulative_Sum
Offset 1,800 200 6,000 0 0 8,000 8,000
May-06 1,058 445 0 100 100 1,703 9,703
Jun-06 1,629 733 0 100 100 2,562 12,265
Jul-06 1,494 620 0 100 100 2,314 14,579
Aug-06 1,644 694 0 100 100 2,538 17,117
Sep-06 1,683 764 0 100 100 2,647 19,764
Oct-06 1,703 745 0 100 100 2,648 22,412
Nov-06 1,691 673 0 100 100 2,564 24,976
Dec-06 1,865 768 0 200 100 2,933 27,909
Jan-07 1,505 666 0 200 100 2,471 30,380
Feb-07 1,431 594 0 200 100 2,325 32,705
Mar-07 1,353 684 0 200 100 2,337 35,042
Apr-07 1,370 624 0 200 100 2,294 37,336
May-07 1,123 524 0 500 100 2,247 39,583
Jun-07 1,307 574 0 1,500 100 3,481 43,064
Jul-07 1,518 1,754 0 1,500 100 4,872 47,936
Aug-07 202 294 0 1,500 100 2,096 50,032
If I understand your table correctly, you would now be saying that it needs 27,909 SOFAD to clear Dec 2006, 32,705 SOFAD to clear Feb 2007, whilst to clear Apr 2007 would still need 37,336 SOFAD.
My own humble model predicts figures of 28,381, 32,798 & 37,041 with Porting at 6,000. We almost exactly match in our predictions.
I find that very encouraging.
I now need to understand why Q's predictions are different, but that must wait until Q has taken a well deserved vacation.
TeddyKoochu
12-15-2010, 11:23 AM
Spectator and Parvsnath thanks for your inputs. Spec many thanks for your drawing out the table again. This does not change the final outcome of my humble prediction as I still believe that we may get 37K SOFAD and cross Apr 2007. However the real situation is that the VB will move for EB2 only in the last quarter and whatever maybe the final resting point the porting will be in the 6K range. Correction from my previous post that porting was 3K I am back to 6K on porting which was initially factored in initial prediction. For a better and more refined prediction & calculation we should observe for a few more months. One thing the revised table indicates that without any spillover it is almost hopeless for EB2-I to cross May and as spillover may start only in July the next few VB's for EB2-I will keep showing the same date.
Month-Year India China PWMB "CP +
Local Office" "Total
Monthly" "Cumlative
Sum
"
Offset(Includes 6k porting) 7800 200 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1058 445 100 100 1703 9703
Jun-06 1629 733 100 100 2562 12265
Jul-06 1494 620 100 100 2314 14579
Aug-06 1644 694 100 100 2538 17117
Sep-06 1683 764 100 100 2647 19764
Oct-06 1703 745 100 100 2648 22412
Nov-06 1691 673 100 100 2564 24976
Dec-06 1865 768 200 100 2933 27909
Jan-07 1505 666 200 100 2471 30380
Feb-07 1431 594 200 100 2325 32705
Mar-07 1353 684 200 100 2337 35042
Apr-07 1370 624 200 100 2294 37336
May-07 1123 524 500 100 2247 39583
Jun-07 1307 574 1500 100 3481 43064
Jul-07 1518 1754 1500 100 4872 47936
Aug-07 202 294 1500 100 2096 50032
kaella
12-15-2010, 01:51 PM
Teddy and Others,
I like your predictions and i am almost like addicted to see your postings. I appreciate your effort and the hope you provide.
With your experience what is your prediction (percentage-wise) on my PD Apr 6 2007 getting current in Jul-Sep 2011 visa bulletin's ?
thanks
TeddyKoochu
12-15-2010, 02:13 PM
Teddy and Others,
I like your predictions and i am almost like addicted to see your postings. I appreciate your effort and the hope you provide.
With your experience what is your prediction (percentage-wise) on my PD Apr 6 2007 getting current in Jul-Sep 2011 visa bulletin's ?
thanks
I believe that there is a 75% chance of it happening based on the current trends. However we need more time to watch and be sure. All the best.
GlimmerOfHope
12-15-2010, 06:30 PM
Guys,
I am back again this time with some trackitt data.
From Oct 2010 till today Dec 15th, there are 80 EB2-I approvals on trackitt .
From the trackitt data its clear that 49 of these approvals are EB3-EB2 porting.
Even if some of these cases were assigned the Visa from FY2010 to be approved in FY2011. Porting number is quite high.
I believe our assumptions of 6k towards porting is not enough, we need to revise that number.
Please do not raise your predictions beyond Feb 2007. PERM approvals are coming in left-right and center. Some are as fast as 8 days (my friend got it, he was PWMB and now applied I140).
Good Luck. Sometimes even I am scared now even though my PD is Last week of Aug 2006 and I Can not be current before Jul-Aug 2011.
Spectator
12-15-2010, 09:05 PM
Guys,
I am back again this time with some trackitt data.
From Oct 2010 till today Dec 15th, there are 80 EB2-I approvals on trackitt .
From the trackitt data its clear that 49 of these approvals are EB3-EB2 porting.
Even if some of these cases were assigned the Visa from FY2010 to be approved in FY2011. Porting number is quite high.
I believe our assumptions of 6k towards porting is not enough, we need to revise that number.
Please do not raise your predictions beyond Feb 2007. PERM approvals are coming in left-right and center. Some are as fast as 8 days (my friend got it, he was PWMB and now applied I140).
Good Luck. Sometimes even I am scared now even though my PD is Last week of Aug 2006 and I Can not be current before Jul-Aug 2011.
GlimmerOfHope,
As a result of your post, I have looked at the Trackitt data and analyzed the cases with recent filing dates and/or short approval times.
I have found 8 confirmed EB3-EB2 Porting cases. Beyond that there is one almost certain Porting case and another 2 that might be.
That gives a maximum of 11 cases, which would translate to 5.5k cases based on 37k SOFAD or 3.9k based on 26k SOFAD.
The other cases that I looked at appear to be PWMB, mainly due to PERM delays and audits.
After that, people had been waiting a long time and who failed to get approval on previous occasions when their PD was Current.
At the moment, I can't agree with your conlusion
parsvnath
12-16-2010, 10:23 AM
Teddy, Q and Spec,
In terms of PERM processing times, I agree with GlimmerofHope. In the below site, you can find the PERM processing times. Analyst are currently reviewing NOV 2010 PERM cases (Holy Cow!!!). But what I am not sure is if it already factored into your model or not. What is your assumption (in each of your model), in terms of PERM leftover for the current fiscal. I am thinking probably less than 15 days to be on the conservative side.
http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm
I am not quite sure on porting. I need to do some analysis.
GlimmerOfHope
12-16-2010, 11:41 AM
Spectator,
I guess you know how to go to the tracker, just in case others want to see the data for themselves, the instructions are,
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i485-eb/filter
change the filters as
i. Country of Chargeability to India
ii. Category to EB2.
iii. I-485 Approval/Denial Date: From Oct 2010, leave the to field as it is.
In the result set displayed (80 records), sort by the Priority Date in ascending order
Records 1,2,3 are clear cases of porting as the users profile suggests.
Now view every user's profile and look for.
a. Recently approved PERM tracker information.
b. I140 approved in 2009 or 2010 with a I485 tracker showing priority date in 2002-2006.
c. Some profiles clearly mention its a EB3-EB2 porting case.
d. Some other attributes like dependent profiles mention EB3-EB2 porting case, I485 approved in short times etc. even with PD in 2005 or 2006.
I have the trackitt profile ids that have ported that I can send you if you want in an email or IM, that can be verified.
GlimmerOfHope
12-16-2010, 12:11 PM
Do the same thing all-over again, this time with I485 status as pending and clear the I-485 Approval/Denial Date: to default.
I am scared &*^% now to see the volume of pending I485's that are pending and have already ported.
I don't have the patience and time to count those as there are more than 1200 pending cases and some are old profiles/stale data.
kd2008
12-16-2010, 05:30 PM
You need to exclude cases after the current priority of may 2006 as for those cases its immaterial if it is a porting case. That gives a subset of ~450 cases. If you arrange them by I-140 approval then there were less than 70 cases with I-140 approved in 2009-2010
sreekumar
12-17-2010, 03:40 PM
My EB2-I PD is 06/2008. Is there any hope of getting EAD by Sep 2011 or 2012.
GlimmerOfHope
12-18-2010, 12:49 PM
Spectator,
Another observation on trackitt. There are 80 EB2-I approvals with 49 being EB3-EB2. I searched again today and some of the users have left their category as EB3.
There are 33 EB3-I approvals since Oct 1st. Guess what? 14 of them are porting cases but listed in EB3 as their PD is not current in EB3 but in EB2, some mention porting, some have recently approved I-140.
So total of 80(Listed as EB2) + 14 (Listed as EB3) = 94 EB2-I cases approved since Oct 2010 and 63 of them are porting.
God bless us all who are very near yet so far.
Teddy/Q what are your thots?
Spectator
12-18-2010, 06:33 PM
Spectator,
Another observation on trackitt. There are 80 EB2-I approvals with 49 being EB3-EB2. I searched again today and some of the users have left their category as EB3.
There are 33 EB3-I approvals since Oct 1st. Guess what? 14 of them are porting cases but listed in EB3 as their PD is not current in EB3 but in EB2, some mention porting, some have recently approved I-140.
So total of 80(Listed as EB2) + 14 (Listed as EB3) = 94 EB2-I cases approved since Oct 2010 and 63 of them are porting.
God bless us all who are very near yet so far.
Teddy/Q what are your thots?
GlimmerOfHope,
Thanks for your post.
I agree that there are 14 EB3 approvals on Trackitt that are EB3-EB2 Porting cases.
I don't agree that the number of Porting cases is as high in the Trackitt EB2 approvals. I found around 11 rather than 49.
In addition, there looked to be just over 20 in the pending EB2 cases on Trackitt.
I think we are just approaching what we consider to be a Porting case with different eyes and criteria. I am happy to accept that my figure is the most conservative. I think yours are very pessimistic.
With all that said, I agree that the Porting rate, as expressed by Trackitt, is quite high (around 30% of primary cases approved) even by my calculations. If it continued at that rate, we would be looking at c. 7.5k Porting cases based on 26k SOFAD and 10.5k based on 37k SOFAD.
If we took your figures, then Porting would represent 70% of cases approved to date.
I can actually see a logic flaw in my argument above.
Since we are in the first few months of the Fiscal Year, only about 250 visas a month are available. That will only change when Spillover is released.
At this point in the year, it would not be surprising to see most approvals being due to Porting, since they will have the earliest Priority Dates.
However, when Spillover is released, they will represent a much lower % of the total.
Even using your figures, Porting only represents 939 approved cases in 78 days. Over a year, this converts to 4.4k My figures give a figure of just 1.8k (which even I think is too low).
However, because of the limited supply of Visas at present, there are probably more Porting cases than can be approved immediately - hence no movement in EB2-I.
I think you raise an extremely important point. Nobody knows how much Porting is going on, and there is very little information available to make an educated guess.
I do think it is worthwhile to continue to monitor Trackitt to see how the trend develops. It is important to note that Trackitt doesn't necessarily represent a balanced view of the total picture and that, as the "EB3 approvals" demonstrate, the information entered is not always entirely accurate.
I certainly am not dismissing the idea that Porting may be higher than anybody has factored into the calculations - you may be correct. I do urge caution in leaping to any conclusion that it is taking place at a crazy rate, at least until there is more tangible proof of it. At the end of the day, I am guessing at the Porting rate and my guess is as good as yours.
As a PS, thanks for drawing my attention to the data. I noticed that PWMB was higher than I had accounted for and enabled me to make a correction.
qesehmk
12-20-2010, 12:55 AM
Parsvnath and others
Don't be scared at teh cycle time for PERM approval. Shorter cycle time could very well be an indicator of lower volume.
p.s. - I am still traveling. But thought I could quickly chip in.
Teddy, Q and Spec,
In terms of PERM processing times, I agree with GlimmerofHope. In the below site, you can find the PERM processing times. Analyst are currently reviewing NOV 2010 PERM cases (Holy Cow!!!). But what I am not sure is if it already factored into your model or not. What is your assumption (in each of your model), in terms of PERM leftover for the current fiscal. I am thinking probably less than 15 days to be on the conservative side.
http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm
I am not quite sure on porting. I need to do some analysis.
TeddyKoochu
12-20-2010, 11:24 AM
Friends I believe we should look at this issue both quantitatively and qualitatively. Let us consider the following facts.
Assumptions - No movement in EB2 dates has been seen in 2011. Assume that all numbers are going towards PD Porting and nothing goes towards PWMB to get the maximum value.
1) EB2I's annual cap is 2800 which translates to 700 per quarter. So this translates to 2800 per year.
2) According to Pasrsvnath's analysis ~ 750 was the decline in the non-current portion of EB2 however I remember that the demand data for India has been showing the same value since the last few months so lets assume its PD porting filling in this gap. This would translate to ~ 6000.
If we add 1 and 2 the maximum possible figure that we get is 6K.
Now we should ideally not be looking at figures and multiplying, the PD porting folks are the more active and aware guys and as the date is static now these folks would see their well deserved approvals. Also looking at another aspect most porting cases are being approved with 1-2 months of the interfiling request so nobody is really waiting this might indicate that the monthly allocation is sufficient to cater to these cases. On Trackitt I believe as you are searching we should look at EB2 by recent filing date + old PD’s and also EB3 cases as some folks simply update their EB3 case which is not current. However Iam reasonably sure that PD porting will not exceed 6K.
parsvnath
12-22-2010, 06:35 PM
Bad News on Famil Based Visa Spillover
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf
In pages 5 and 6, the report states all Family Visas for 2010 will get used by End of 2010.
I don;t think it impacts our prediction but wanted you guys to be aware of it.
kd2008
12-29-2010, 10:12 AM
Quoting from trackitt post http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/586347353/eb3-row-what-to-expect-in-2011/page/17
Paste below lines in EXCEL, and change the data from Text to column ("," is used as separator value).
2007* means all the numbers against this year are only 33% of total PERM approval of that year.
** indicates PERM APPROVED multiplied by 2.25 to account for all derivatives:
Year,Total,ROW,Retro,India,EB3-ROW**,EB2-ROW**,EB3-Retro**,EB2-Retro**,EB3-I**,EB2-I**,Waiting2File**
2007*,28087,14002,14085,8109,15752,15752,15846,158 46,9123,9123,65690
2008,49205,22870,26335,16568,25729,25729,29627,296 27,18639,18639,122261
2009,29502,13597,15905,11387,15297,15297,17893,178 93,12810,12810,76703
2010,70237,30644,39593,28930,34475,34475,44542,445 42,32546,32546,188651
Total,177031,81113,95918,64994,91253,91253,107908, 107908,73118,73118,453305
Again these are numbers based on the date of PERM approval and not PERM filing. So the actual demand may shift. For example, 2010 saw large number of PERM approvals but they all were not filed in 2010.
again 2010 means Oct 2009 to Sept 2010 and so on.
Furthermore recollect what happened with family-based quota: USCIS moved the dates too slow for a number of years and many thousand visas were wasted. So Ombudsman reprimands. Then USCIS moves them too fast, there is a deluge of applications and now they retrogress two years. I would be very surprised if something different happened with employment-based applications.
Oh to pity our fate at the hands of USCIS!
mygctracker
12-29-2010, 02:46 PM
Gurus,
My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.
Thanks
mygctracker
12-29-2010, 02:48 PM
Gurus,
My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.
Thanks
Sorry didn't mention the category. It is EB2-India.
TeddyKoochu
12-29-2010, 05:02 PM
Quoting from trackitt post http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/586347353/eb3-row-what-to-expect-in-2011/page/17
Paste below lines in EXCEL, and change the data from Text to column ("," is used as separator value).
2007* means all the numbers against this year are only 33% of total PERM approval of that year.
** indicates PERM APPROVED multiplied by 2.25 to account for all derivatives:
Year,Total,ROW,Retro,India,EB3-ROW**,EB2-ROW**,EB3-Retro**,EB2-Retro**,EB3-I**,EB2-I**,Waiting2File**
2007*,28087,14002,14085,8109,15752,15752,15846,158 46,9123,9123,65690
2008,49205,22870,26335,16568,25729,25729,29627,296 27,18639,18639,122261
2009,29502,13597,15905,11387,15297,15297,17893,178 93,12810,12810,76703
2010,70237,30644,39593,28930,34475,34475,44542,445 42,32546,32546,188651
Total,177031,81113,95918,64994,91253,91253,107908, 107908,73118,73118,453305
Again these are numbers based on the date of PERM approval and not PERM filing. So the actual demand may shift. For example, 2010 saw large number of PERM approvals but they all were not filed in 2010.
again 2010 means Oct 2009 to Sept 2010 and so on.
Furthermore recollect what happened with family-based quota: USCIS moved the dates too slow for a number of years and many thousand visas were wasted. So Ombudsman reprimands. Then USCIS moves them too fast, there is a deluge of applications and now they retrogress two years. I would be very surprised if something different happened with employment-based applications.
Oh to pity our fate at the hands of USCIS!
I believe that this analysis is from the user "MAY2003".While its true that 2010 saw a lot of perm approvals atleast 2/3rds of these folks got their 485's also approved the same year, so we are past this phase kind off. If you look at EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt they are down to 60% (179/295) comparing corresponding periods in 2009 and 2010. However looks like EB2 ROW approvals did accelerate this month when compared to last month.
Gurus,
My PD is Jan 2008, waiting to file I-485. When can I expect to file my I-485. I-140 is approved.
Thanks
Best case is Jul - Sep 2012 and worst case is Jul - Sep 2013, Good Luck. I would give 2012 80% chances.
qesehmk
12-30-2010, 08:48 AM
I believe that this analysis is from the user "MAY2003".While its true that 2010 saw a lot of perm approvals atleast 2/3rds of these folks got their 485's also approved the same year, so we are past this phase kind off. If you look at EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt they are down to 60% (179/295) comparing corresponding periods in 2009 and 2010. However looks like EB2 ROW approvals did accelerate this month when compared to last month.
I agree w Teddy. 2010 saw PERM approvals from backlog. This year this will be mostly current and hence less of a risk to SOFAD.
Best case is Jul - Sep 2012 and worst case is Jul - Sep 2013, Good Luck. I would give 2012 80% chances.
Agree again.
Spectator
12-30-2010, 09:39 PM
As ever, I am going to disagree with the conventional wisdom on this board.
The 2010 PERM figures suggest that at least 10k EB2-ROW I-485 cases will fall through to be approved as I-485s in FY2011.
In fact, let's take PERM out of the equation and look at I-140s.
According to the USCIS Dashboard, backlog reduction meant that Pending I-140 applications reached a low of 11k in Feb 2010.
Since then, because of greatly increased receipts (presumably due to the upsurge in PERM approvals), the Pending applications have steadily risen and stood at 26.5k in October 2010. That level hasn't been seen since May 2009.
The September 2010 figure, would allow EB2-ROW approvals in FY2011 of 9k after allowing that some would be EB1 cases.
New I-140 receipts continue at around double the figure seen a year ago. If continued, they would amount to 96k in FY2011.
Allowing for EB1 cases and taking two thirds of the remainder (to represent the first 8 months) would allow a further 22k EB2-ROW approvals, giving a total of 31k possible approvals for EB2-ROW in FY2011.
I am not saying how many will be approved, merely that EB2-ROW can reach its allocation with the facts known. That will deny any spill across to EB2-IC. At the very best, it will be much reduced from the level seen in FY2010.
The figures are actually quite conservative. The I-140s not considered allow EB1 to reach more than 40k in FY2011. If EB1 approvals were less, then EB2-ROW becomes higher. It also assumes that the backlog is allowed to remain at 26.5k and no reduction effort is undertaken at some point during the FY.
As for FY2010, only 10% of the 516 EB2-ROW I-485 primary approvals on Trackitt were from applications filed before 2009. That suggest that clearing a backlog of I-140 applications that had been pending for many years was not a factor in the number of approvals seen.
The backlog reduction effort had more effect on keeping approvals artificially high in FY2008 and FY2009. The backlog of I-140s was 118k in July 2008 (the earliest date I have data for) and had dropped to 14k at the beginning of FY2010. This backlog reduction offset the low PERM and I-140 numbers for FY2008 and FY2009.
Whilst it is true that a significant % of approvals had fairly old Priority Dates in FY2010, that factor is more than outweighed by the fact that PERM/I-140 approvals are now significantly faster and that the volume has at least doubled. There is no need for approval of significant numbers with old PDs in FY2011 to reach the EB2-ROW allocation. Those submitted solely in 2010-2011 should be sufficient.
As ever, when I talk about ROW, I mean Countries other than C, I, M & P. I know some people refer to ROW as all Countries other than IC.
For EB2-MP, they might contribute 2.5-3k to spill across in FY2011 from their 5.8k allocation if historical trends continue.
In FY2010, if EB5 contributed 8.8k (known from published document), then EB1 and EB2-Non Retrogressed must have contributed 11.7k spillover/across between them. If EB2-ROW had 24.5k approvals, as Trackitt suggests, it contributed 6.5k spill across. If EB2-M&P contributed a further 3k spill across, then that leaves EB1 as contributing just 2.2k. That suggests EB1 had approvals of 40.8k.
The 26.5k SOFAD would have been comprised of:
EB5 ------- 8.8
EB1 ------- 2.2
EB2-ROW --- 6.5
EB2-M&P --- 3.0
IC All. --- 6.0
Total ---- 26.5
Having seen the October USCIS figures, my position has actually hardened.
Like some on Trackitt, I don't see EB2-IC getting beyond September 2006 in FY2011. It could be better, but that depends almost entirely on EB1 IMO. Despite the Trackitt figures, I expect EB1 to be near, at or beyond its FY2011 allocation.
I expect EB5 to probably provide around 8k in FY2011.
Certainly, I feel quite confident in predicting that the Cut Off dates for EB2-IC will not go beyond 2006 in FY2011.
I don't think I will comment again until the Visa Statistics for FY2010 are published and the real numbers for EB2-ROW, EB2-M, EB2-P and EB1 are revealed.
I do accept that if PERM approvals (and therefore I-140s/I-485s) reduce significantly in FY2011 then the situation would change for the better. The only direct evidence of that will be the monthly I-140 receipt figures. Unfortunately, USCIS is very slow in providing that data (they have only just published the October figure). That means nothing will become evident for several months. By the time any trend can be established, we will probably have entered Spillover Season anyway. I just don't accept that PERM approvals will reduce from the FY2010 level to the extent others argue. That is due to continued higher applicant numbers and shorter approval times.
One thing is certain - I can't be accused of overestimating the Cut Off Date progress for EB2-IC. ;)
mygctracker
12-30-2010, 11:52 PM
I agree w Teddy. 2010 saw PERM approvals from backlog. This year this will be mostly current and hence less of a risk to SOFAD.
Agree again.
Thanks Both...
Guys,
I did some simple calculations based on recent I-140 receipts available on the USCIS dashboard. I assumed that for the ROW applicants, it takes on an average 3 months to get green card after they get I-140 receipt. So, July, 10 receipts will be assigned visas in October, 10 (the start of the new year) and so on and so forth. From the current dashboard, we can get total number of receipts from July, 10 to October, 10 which is 31,059. Next, from the PERM 2010 data, I calculated an average ratio of ROW applicants ( ignoring India & China) to the total number of applicants in a typical year, which is around 0.53 (37,255/70,237). I used this approximate ratio to estimate the number of ROW I-140 receipts from July 10 to October 10, which is, 31,059*0.53 = 16,474. Next, I multiplied this number by 2.2 (Q's ratio) to estimate the number of actual visas the USCIS will have spent from Oct, 10 to Jan, 11 based on my 3 months lag logic. This number is, 16,474*2.2=36,243. The last thing I did is to extrapolate this number for the full year (12 months), which is, 36,243/4*12 = 108,730. So, basically the left over numbers (140,000 - 108,730 = 31,270) will be available for the spill over+ their own assigned yearly quota for India and China at the end of the year? Is it possible or are there any obvious flaws in my approach? Also, I can refine these numbers as the dashboard gets updated from time to time.
qesehmk
12-31-2010, 07:41 AM
Spec .... I wouldn't vehemently support or reject what you say. The reason being I-140 data can't be taken at its face value. For some reason it is always overstated --- just like 485 receipt data. I haven't figured out why. And that's why I only look at the %increase YoY and use that to predict future. In other words lets use YoY %change rather than absolute numbers from 485/140 receipts data.
As ever, I am going to disagree with the conventional wisdom on this board.
Guys,
I did some simple calculations based on recent I-140 receipts available on the USCIS dashboard. I assumed that for the ROW applicants, it takes on an average 3 months to get green card after they get I-140 receipt. So, July, 10 receipts will be assigned visas in October, 10 (the start of the new year) and so on and so forth. From the current dashboard, we can get total number of receipts from July, 10 to October, 10 which is 31,059. Next, from the PERM 2010 data, I calculated an average ratio of ROW applicants ( ignoring India & China) to the total number of applicants in a typical year, which is around 0.53 (37,255/70,237). I used this approximate ratio to estimate the number of ROW I-140 receipts from July 10 to October 10, which is, 31,059*0.53 = 16,474. Next, I multiplied this number by 2.2 (Q's ratio) to estimate the number of actual visas the USCIS will have spent from Oct, 10 to Jan, 11 based on my 3 months lag logic. This number is, 16,474*2.2=36,243. The last thing I did is to extrapolate this number for the full year (12 months), which is, 36,243/4*12 = 108,730. So, basically the left over numbers (140,000 - 108,730 = 31,270) will be available for the spill over+ their own assigned yearly quota for India and China at the end of the year? Is it possible or are there any obvious flaws in my approach? Also, I can refine these numbers as the dashboard gets updated from time to time.
Vedu, I think the leftover number you calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3 .... right? But again, I will suggest the same what I suggested to spec above.
Vedu, I think the leftover number you calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3 .... right? But again, I will suggest the same what I suggested to spec above.
Yes, the numbers calculated will be applied to IC of all EB1 EB2 EB3, etc. One flaw in my method is that I am not dividing the numbers in different visa categories and I am assuming that all visa categories of all the ROW countries are current, which is not necessarily true.
hoping4thebest
01-04-2011, 07:16 PM
I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?
Spectator
01-04-2011, 10:04 PM
I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?
I did some very ROUGH calculations based on the PERM data from FY2008 - FY2010. It therefore doesn't include the period from August - December 2007, which might be quite significant. Also, because EB2-NIW doesn't require LC, they are not included. Since EB1 is Current and doesn't require LC and all Countries other than China and India in EB2 are Current, I haven't included any numbers for those.
---------- EB2 2008-2010
China ------- 13,953
India ------- 59,731
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
TOTAL ------- 73,684
---------- EB3 2008-2010
China -------- 5,980
India ------- 59,731
Mexico ------ 12,642
Philippines - 14,990
ROW --------- 64,873
TOTAL ------ 158,216
Including the Current backlog, where I-485s have been submitted, this would give approximate backlogs of :
EB2 --- 110k
EB3 --- 290k
plus excluded periods and Categories plus earlier PDs where I-485 has yet to be submitted.
I reiterate that it is a very rough calculation, which I haven't revisited or refined, so don't put too much store by it.
For instance, I have no doubt that the overall figure for EB3-Philippines is far too low, given that NVC data suggests they had 47k applications for CP processing as at November 01, 2010. Similarly, some of the other figures look slightly low. The figures above have quite a wide error margin. Treat them as indicative only.
I have seen estimates of the total backlog being 500k. That might not be far off.
Hope that helps.
Perhaps Teddy and Q want to give their thoughts, as I am aware of the limitations of these figures.
qesehmk
01-04-2011, 10:05 PM
I am sorry if this has already been discussed but I am curious to know how many folks from the Post-July 2007 era (EB-wise and country-wise)are waiting to file I-485. I assume that this number will mainly consist of folks from the retrogressed countries? Is there a quick ball-park way to calculate this from the available data?
hp4b(hope you don't mind this abbreviation!), the number of people who missed (jul 07) boat is approx. 7%. The people who come after that can be deduced easily by looking at labor approvals (times 2.2).
TeddyKoochu
01-05-2011, 06:28 PM
Spec, Thanks for your very detailed post and breaking it up. I believe that the figure that you have come up with seems to be pretty much ok. This is the best that can be calculated today. The later half of 2007 which you have excluded can be used as a buffer to exclude cases wherein after an approved labor either someone did not file a 140 or got denied. The backlog is rising by the day and the situation is dire.
Q, quick question for you, in your calculations you have assumed the PWMB's to be 7% of the backlog however their concentration gets heavier as we move closer to Jul 2007. I would assume that From May 2006 to Apr 2007 this number maybe small or may probably be 5%, however May 2007 could be 10%, Jun 2007 could be 30% and Jul 2007 could well be 50%. So if we spread the PWMB's out does it help to move your projection a month further? Looking at Trackitt there seem to be a fair number of PWMB’s (The only way seems to be to open up the specific cases and reading the comments).
qesehmk
01-05-2011, 06:53 PM
Teddy
You are right. But since 7% itself is a best guess, I stopped at that approximation and didn't add any more complication in terms of using different % for different months. Since we have tried to be conservative in predicting movements ... I would refrain from any such assumption that helps movement further but may have a question mark on it.
Spec, Thanks for your very detailed post and breaking it up. I believe that the figure that you have come up with seems to be pretty much ok. This is the best that can be calculated today. The later half of 2007 which you have excluded can be used as a buffer to exclude cases wherein after an approved labor either someone did not file a 140 or got denied. The backlog is rising by the day and the situation is dire.
Q, quick question for you, in your calculations you have assumed the PWMB's to be 7% of the backlog however their concentration gets heavier as we move closer to Jul 2007. I would assume that From May 2006 to Apr 2007 this number maybe small or may probably be 5%, however May 2007 could be 10%, Jun 2007 could be 30% and Jul 2007 could well be 50%. So if we spread the PWMB's out does it help to move your projection a month further? Looking at Trackitt there seem to be a fair number of PWMB’s (The only way seems to be to open up the specific cases and reading the comments).
kd2008
01-07-2011, 08:14 AM
Here is my exchange with sangiano on trackitt forum (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/643583319/does-eb2-i-retrogress-in-2011-due-to-portings/page/last_page):
kd2008 to sangiano:
The PERM case number usually is say for example A-11010-12345 then the middle 5 digits are the filing date in Julian format. So 11010 is basically 10th day of 2011 and so on. In Excel you can use the following: If the Case no. column is C then MID(C2,3,5) for the Case no. in Column in C2 and so on. Say you put this value of 11010 in Column B2, then use DATE(2000+INT(B2/1000),1,MOD(B2,1000)) to change to actual date format and you will get 1/10/11. Could you please run this and figure out the actual number of cases filed in each year?
Thanks!
(reply) (report this)
Posted by sangiano (2164) 12 hours 52 minutes ago
to kd2008:
Thanks for the simple function to convert the Julian Date.
I had done it already, but by a far more complicated method.
Here's the figures you requested as the Calendar Year that the PERM was received for all Countries.
2010 -- 18,050 -- 25.70%
2009 -- 38,422 -- 54.70%
2008 -- 10,942 -- 15.58%
2007 --- 2,726 -- 3.88%
2006 ------ 84 -- 0.12%
2005 ------ 13 -- 0.02%
Total - 70,237 -- 100.00%
I am not sure they are that useful, since we already knew that there was a lot of backlog reduction.
If we look at the last 4 months of the year, that should give a better idea of what is going to happen going into FY2011.
2010 -- 16,064 -- 74.602%
2009 --- 2,659 -- 12.348%
2008 --- 2,622 -- 12.177%
2007 ----- 176 -- 0.817%
2006 ------ 10 -- 0.046%
2005 ------- 2 -- 0.009%
Total - 21,533 -- 100.00%
As you can see, it is an entirely different picture.
It is ROW that is more important in many ways, so here are the figures for ROW (all except C,I,M & P) for the last 4 months.
2010 -- 5,799 -- 69.56%
2009 -- 1,124 -- 13.48%
2008 -- 1,329 -- 15.94%
2007 ----- 78 -- 0.94%
2006 ------ 5 -- 0.06%
2005 ------ 2 -- 0.02%
Total - 8,337 - 100.00%
and by the Fiscal year that the PERM was received (again based on the period June to September).
FY2010 -- 6,494 -- 77.89%
FY2009 ---- 468 -- 5.61%
FY2008 -- 1,356 -- 16.26%
FY2007 ----- 14 -- 0.17%
FY2006 ------ 4 -- 0.05%
FY2005 ------ 1 -- 0.01%
Total --- 8,337 - 100.00%
As you can see, the vast majority of approvals were coming from applications only received by DOL with the current FY.
Of course figures can be made to say anything.
I am sure that PERM approvals will decline in FY2011, but not by the amount some people are expecting.
As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC.
I hope you find the breakdown useful.
(reply) (report this)
to sangiano:
To sangiano,
Quote : "As I have calculated it, if the figures from the last 4 months continued into FY2011, even if there were no backlogs to clear from previous FY, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the approval levels seen in FY2010, which would limit the amount of spill across available to EB2-IC. "
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First of all thanks for running the query. I can not understand how you derive at the conclusion that the EB2-ROW is capable of reaching approval levels seen in FY2010.
1. There were only 18050 approvals from 2010. As backlog is cleared I can expect not more than 20-25K approvals in FY2011.
2. It is safe to assume that 50% of the approvals will be for ROW. (12.5 K)
3. Out of these 50%, not more than 20-30% qualify for EB2.. (based on 2009 PERM stat). (4K)
4. Assuming each PERM represent three members...(EB2 ROW should not consume more than 12K Visas.)
5. If I do similar math to the FY2010 last 4 months approvals figures...(Last 4 months approval 8 K, 30% EB2 is 2.5 K, multiply by 3 = 7.5 K)
(Not sure if they were flowed through to FY2011. It is likely that some of them are already taken care of in FY2010 quota)
6. This accounts for 19.5 K EB2 Visas for ROW, leaving 15 K for India & Chiana.
Correct me if I am missing anything here.
Thanks,
dg0320
(reply) (report this)
Posted by sangiano (2164) 11 hours ago
to dg0320:
I think your calculation will underestimate the amount.
Yes there are 18k approvals from CY2010, but that doesn't represent the total for a fiscal year. It represents only 9 months. Prorated up, that would become 24k. Then there are those approvals as a result of PERMs received at the end of FY2009, but not approved until FY2010.
Rather than looking at the total, I think you should look at the rate at the end of the year, which was 4k / month in the last 4 months and the same when calculated over the last 3 months. That would give you 48k per year.
Figures suggest that ROW (if you include M & P) is 55%
A ratio of 20:80 or 30:70 for EB2:EB3 is unrealistically low IMO.
The historical ratio for I-485s in EB2 is 2.1 members. If older cases Port, this might rise, but 3 might be too high.
My rough calculation would run something like this.
Purely PERM approvals from the FY for ROW at the same rate would be 1,624 / month. There will be some others so let's say 1,750 / month.
That gives approvals in FY2011 of 21,000.
Using a 50:50 ratio for EB2:EB3 gives 10,500 EB2 PERM approvals. At 2.1 I-485 applicants per I-140, that is 22,050 I-485s.
But not all PERMs started in FY2011 will translate to I-485s in FY2011. If we say that only those approved in the first 8 months will convert to I-485 approvals, then that would be 14,700 I-485s.
Then we need to add back PERMs approved in the last 4 months of FY2010 but not translating into I-485 approvals until FY2011.
That figure is around 10,000. I agree it might be slightly less than that.
14,700 + 10,000 = 24,700 which is about what Trackitt data suggests ROW received in FY2010.
Again, ROW means all Countries other than China, India, Mexico and Philippines.
Mexico & Philippines usually consume around 3,000 EB2 visas, so total EB2 visas excluding India and China would be 27,700 from an allocation of 34,434, leaving 6,734 available to EB2 India and China.
Alternatively, you can simply assume that PERM approvals will reduce to 80% of FY2010 levels, which would give 56,000 PERM approvals in FY2011. Then assuming ROW (excl M & P) stay at 44% of approvals, the figures calculate out as slightly higher.
I certainly don't believe that PERM approvals will return to a figure as low as that seen in FY2009, which your figures state.
As I said in my previous post, the figures can be interpreted in many ways. I certainly don't claim mine is any better than anyone else's.
Best of luck with your number crunching efforts.
qesehmk
01-07-2011, 08:34 AM
KD ... fine thinking by you and Sangiano. Thank you. Sangiano is a level headed guy and I would take his advice seriously.
If somebody didn't have time to read through the entire exchange here is a simple way I look at it.
8K ROW PERM approvals in last 4 months translate to 24K approvals for full year. Of which 12K are EB2ROW. Which translate to 26K EB2ROW 485s for full year approvals - which means about 8K SOFAD to IC (given MP are already in the PERM approvals). Even otherwise MP have low EB2 demand and whatever demand they have would be offset by possible rejections/withdrawals within the ROW labor going to 140 and 485 stages.
p.s. - I wouldn't complicate things by introducing time lag in approvals (i.e. labor to 140 to 485) because it is futile. USCIS has its own idosyncracies in terms of processing different stages and I wouldn't bet on them one way or other.
Thanks again.
Here is my exchange with sangiano on trackitt forum (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/643583319/does-eb2-i-retrogress-in-2011-due-to-portings/page/last_page):
hsinghjkaur
01-10-2011, 07:00 PM
Does the prediction match with the Jan Demand Data released today?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
qesehmk
01-10-2011, 08:08 PM
welcome to forum. Thanks for question .... although I didn't understand your question.
This demand data itself won't confirm/deny our predictions. The grand test will come around jul-sep 2011 when all SOFAD comes into the picture.
Does the prediction match with the Jan Demand Data released today?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
kd2008
01-11-2011, 11:42 AM
Check this out. Hopefully and eventually we will have an idea about the volume of these cases. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/regressed-visa-12-15-10.pdf
isantem
01-11-2011, 12:12 PM
Check this out. Hopefully and eventually we will have an idea about the volume of these cases. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/regressed-visa-12-15-10.pdf
finally some good memos.
I also find helpful this pharagraph
"(e) Regressed Visa Number Cases.
(1) General. Generally, the availability dates on the Visa Bulletin move forward, but
they sometimes move backward, or “regress.” If a visa number regresses after an
alien has properly filed an application for adjustment of status, and the alien appears
to be eligible for such adjustment, he or she is allowed to remain in the United States
until a visa number again becomes available. The application is held in abeyance
pending a visa number availability only if the application is otherwise approvable.
While the case is awaiting availability of the regressed visa number, the alien is
eligible for issuance of interim benefits such as an employment authorization
document and advance parole for the purposes of employment and travel outside
the United States and return, respectively, at the discretion of the director having
jurisdiction over the matter (see AFM Chapter 54). However, if the alien is ineligible
for adjustment due to an issue not related to visa availability (e.g., inadmissibility
under section 212(a) of the Act), the application should be denied accordingly.
Therefore, the adjudication (including the interview) should proceed regardless of
the visa number availability at the time of adjudication to determine the applicant’s
eligibility."
I think this is good for how already filled I-485 because at least they don't need to wait for years to find out that is something wrong and they are not eligible for greencard.
TexDBoy
01-12-2011, 01:46 AM
Is something cooking. Looks like Eb2 is current
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
qesehmk
01-12-2011, 09:33 AM
THIS IS AMAZING !!!!!!! TexDBoy you made everybody's day here!!
Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 January 2005 1 January 2005
FX 1 April 2005 1 April 2005
F2A 1 January 2008 1 January 2008
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 January 2001 1 January 2001
F4 1 January 2000 1 January 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 Current Current
E3 22 February 2002 1 April 2005
EW 22 February 2002 1 May 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current
This allows all EB2 waiting to file 485 to do so next month. Guys .... get ready to do it.
Is something cooking. Looks like Eb2 is current
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
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