EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Veni

I agree w you otherwise. However as per spillover to EB3, I think the chances are absolutely ZERO that any visas will spill into EB3 from EB2.


skpanda,
If USCIS/DOS would like to take have more applications at hand by making EB2I&C current,they can do it at any time! Since USCIS got more visibility into EB2I&C demand and also coordinating with DOS on a regular basis to set the cutoff dates, i don't think this is a possibility!

Coming to your VISA wastage question, i think as long as they have more VISAs available than pre-adjudicated cases(chances are minimal) on hand in Q4 they could spill those into EB3.

[veni001]

Friends,

Sometime late today we crossed 200,000 views. I must credit this to numerous people active on this forum who continue to provide valuable pieces of information, churn calculations and provide useful advice to others AND MOST IMPORTANTLY do so in a respectful and friendly manner.

I think that really is the spirit of this forum. Truly appreciate everybody's support. Earlier it was just one or two or three of us. Now I see quite a few doing their own work and contributing. So can't really name everybody and so I will just rest it at that.

Thanks and Hope for the best for this year!!

p.s. - I especially want to thanks 3 folks on this forum who act as administrators in addition to contributing to forums. But since some of them probably want to keep it private, I will not name them. But do want to thank them SPECIAL.

Q,
200,000 review is really great accomplishment!. Also this happened in relatively short span(less than 7 months!).

[pch053]

Q,
Thanks for hosting such an informative immigration forum. I have been more of a listener but have greatly educated myself with immigration related matters through this forum. I feel quite a few of the users have provided better feedback and realistic estimates for EB2-I PD movement than many immigration lawyers. Last, but never least, this is one of the forums (if not the only forum) where I have seen friendly and respectful conversations, even when people have disagreed on different topics. I have almost stopped participating in discussion threads in trackitt (other than answering questions for which I clearly know the answer) as it inevitably boils down to a war of words between EB2 vs EB3 or India vs ROW or whatever.

Wishing the very best to all the users and to everyone going through the GC journey!

[srini1976]

I second your thoughts.


Q,
Thanks for hosting such an informative immigration forum. I have been more of a listener but have greatly educated myself with immigration related matters through this forum. I feel quite a few of the users have provided better feedback and realistic estimates for EB2-I PD movement than many immigration lawyers. Last, but never least, this is one of the forums (if not the only forum) where I have seen friendly and respectful conversations, even when people have disagreed on different topics. I have almost stopped participating in discussion threads in trackitt (other than answering questions for which I clearly know the answer) as it inevitably boils down to a war of words between EB2 vs EB3 or India vs ROW or whatever.

Wishing the very best to all the users and to everyone going through the GC journey!

[skpanda]

Thanks to folks who have made this forum a very informative tool. This is probably the only forum that I have not found a single abusive post. All the posts have been very constructive. There have been difference of opinion at times.. but it was dealt in a very respectful manner.

Kudos to everybody..special thanks to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy and others... who have contributed to this forum.


Friends,

Sometime late today we crossed 200,000 views. I must credit this to numerous people active on this forum who continue to provide valuable pieces of information, churn calculations and provide useful advice to others AND MOST IMPORTANTLY do so in a respectful and friendly manner.

I think that really is the spirit of this forum. Truly appreciate everybody's support. Earlier it was just one or two or three of us. Now I see quite a few doing their own work and contributing. So can't really name everybody and so I will just rest it at that.

Thanks and Hope for the best for this year!!

p.s. - I especially want to thanks 3 folks on this forum who act as administrators in addition to contributing to forums. But since some of them probably want to keep it private, I will not name them. But do want to thank them SPECIAL.

[gccool]

Great site and wonderful people here. Thanks to Q, Teddy Koochu, Veni, Spec. and all others who are sharing their knowledge with all of us. This is my first post here though I visit this site many times a day. Congratulations to the moderators, administrator(s) and all others.

[TeddyKoochu]

24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

Note: You will need to have your I140 Receipt Number to check.

Only those cases for which CP option was given at the time of 485 will the details be available for the rest of us it will say that no record is available. I just verified the same I remember my attorney was a fan of I485 v/s CP but its good to call and verify.

[vishnu]

In 2008 (Q4), they seem to have advanced dates by 2 years before retrogressing in 2009 fiscal. Why would they have done this? It's not like they didnt have the inventory already...

[soggadu]

In 2008 (Q4), they seem to have advanced dates by 2 years before retrogressing in 2009 fiscal. Why would they have done this? It's not like they didnt have the inventory already...

This usually happens to clear the CP cases by DOS...

[pch053]

I agree. It might also be that they want to clear the CP cases with 2008 PD in the next few months. That might very well be the reason that NVC cases with late 2007 or early 2008 PDs are getting emails for paying the application fee. One difference with 2008 though is at that time the I485 pending inventory was not public (if I remember correctly), even though USCIS might have known internally the pending demands, etc. Look forward to comments from others!

[Spectator]

In 2008 (Q4), they seem to have advanced dates by 2 years before retrogressing in 2009 fiscal. Why would they have done this? It's not like they didnt have the inventory already...
vishnu,

Actually, I don't think USCIS did have an Inventory at that time, so DOS were essentially in the dark about potential cases from USCIS.

The first published USCIS Inventory didn't appear until August 2009.

One theory suggests that the events of 2008 (and later in 2009) were the final straw for DOS, who then insisted that USCIS compile a proper Inventory by Preference, Chargeability and PD.

Since the first Inventory was made available, EB2-I has never retrogressed, nor have we seen startling advances, inconsistent with the known numbers.

I don't think that is a coincidence.

[vishnu]

Spec - that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the color...
The only difference now is that even the visibile USCIS inventory will likely be depleted at some point in this Q4 spill over (at least very good chance of this happening). So how DOS proceeds from there remains to be seen.

[skpanda]

I agree. It might also be that they want to clear the CP cases with 2008 PD in the next few months. That might very well be the reason that NVC cases with late 2007 or early 2008 PDs are getting emails for paying the application fee. One difference with 2008 though is at that time the I485 pending inventory was not public (if I remember correctly), even though USCIS might have known internally the pending demands, etc. Look forward to comments from others!

By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?

If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..

[skpanda]

Spec - that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the color...
The only difference now is that even the visibile USCIS inventory will likely be depleted at some point in this Q4 spill over (at least very good chance of this happening). So how DOS proceeds from there remains to be seen.

Yes.. it would be very interesting to see how DOS advances dates... since there is no precedent/situation like this in the past.

They may choose to follow the same approach that they took for FB (family) last year. Advance it by 1 or 2 years and then retrogess.

I am hoping instead of picking a random date, they make it current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess. This will help many people including me to file EAD/AP.

Advantage for DOS/USCIS is that they will have enough demand visibility that they can work on for the next 3 or 4 years atleast. In addition they can get all the fees for 485/EAD/AP/EAD Renewels in advance.

S

[pch053]

I think the same issue of approving I485 without strictly going by PDs has happened in the past when the PDs moved by a couple of years. In Aug - Sep'08, I have seen EB2-I cases with 2006 PD getting approved whereas there were still many pending cases from 2004. It will be ideal, if USCIS opens the floodgates (i.e. advances the PDs by few years or makes it current) but still approve I485s based on the PDs. This will enable everyone to apply for EAD/AP and it will also be fair as people will be getting their GCs roughly based on the order in which it was submitted.

[soggadu]

By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?

If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..

Because of the same reason everybdy was current in 2007... CIS not providing up to date information to DOS...instead of wasting the numbers, they progress it to clear the CP's as well as get demand information... as spec mentioned it didnt happen after that as CIS was providing the needed info...

[GlimmerOfHope]

Did anyone give this a thought?

EB5 Spills up to EB1 and the 12K we are receiving now is a sum of available EB1 SO and projected EB5 spill-up (~8k) during last quarter?
So effectively the SO from EB1 could actually be only 4k? and there won't be any Spill-Up from EB5 in the last quarter?

[mpurna77]

I think the same issue of approving I485 without strictly going by PDs has happened in the past when the PDs moved by a couple of years. In Aug - Sep'08, I have seen EB2-I cases with 2006 PD getting approved whereas there were still many pending cases from 2004. It will be ideal, if USCIS opens the floodgates (i.e. advances the PDs by few years or makes it current) but still approve I485s based on the PDs. This will enable everyone to apply for EAD/AP and it will also be fair as people will be getting their GCs roughly based on the order in which it was submitted..

As you are mentioning here if they open PDs and flood gates same situation will arise like you saying in your statement itself down the line 3 months there may be case pending for 2004/05 but some case from 07/08 can be approved. :-(

[soggadu]

Did anyone give this a thought?

EB5 Spills up to EB1 and the 12K we are receiving now is a sum of available EB1 SO and projected EB5 spill-up (~8k) during last quarter?
So effectively the SO from EB1 could actually be only 4k? and there won't be any Spill-Up from EB5 in the last quarter?

you answered it yourself... EB5 --> EB1 happens in beginning of 4 qtr...but the 12K is from EB1 itself as per CO (charles Opexxxx, i dont know the correct last name)... 12K is left over in EB1 after 2 qtr's and no talk on EB5 so it has to wait till 4 qtr... relax and enjoy the ride on the high tide....

[shaumack]

As you are mentioning here if they open PDs and flood gates same situation will arise like you saying in your statement itself down the line 3 months there may be case pending for 2004/05 but some case from 07/08 can be approved. :-(


I do not know if someone shared this before but you will be interested in this reply from Ron. Someone asked about processing time with TSC. I found it interesting.


Re: Processing time for I-485 in TSC goes up
I have never taken those processing times very seriously because they bear almost no relationship to reality. Statistically, about 89 per cent of all EB green card applications go the AOS route. Assuming that we have about 148,000 EB numbers available, this means that the USCIS share is close to 132,000 EB adjustments, with the rest being handled by the Department of State. Even though the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, but itself processes about 120,000 VERY DIFFICULT green card applications each year, the USCIS rarely exceeds 110,000 AOS approvals.

Using these numbers as an example, if it appears that the USCIS will only process about 110,000 AOS cases, the State Department knows that they need to make up the difference (in this case, 22,000 EB cases) through overseas consular processing. Since they can't get the USCIS to speed up, and they are pretty much current with their own processing, the only way to avoid wasting visas is to make another 22,000 applicants eligible to receive visas before September 30th. The only way to do this is to temporarily advance cutoff dates to make 22,000 more people eligible. Once they have done this, and issued enough visas to exhaust the quota, then then have to roll back the cutoff dates to where they should be.

For this reason, every summer we see a temporary artificial advance in cutoff dates, followed by a retrogression in October.

[TeddyKoochu]

you answered it yourself... EB5 --> EB1 happens in beginning of 4 qtr...but the 12K is from EB1 itself as per CO (charles Opexxxx, i dont know the correct last name)... 12K is left over in EB1 after 2 qtr's and no talk on EB5 so it has to wait till 4 qtr... relax and enjoy the ride on the high tide....

Friends there are several news reports to suggest that EB5 is being marketed very aggressively. They have added premium processing for this category as well. So to have spillover from EB5 earlier than the last quarter looks highly unlikely. I believe that the 8K that we are expecting from EB5 may well be divided between the last quarter bulletins.

[skpanda]

Friends there are several news reports to suggest that EB5 is being marketed very aggressively. They have added premium processing for this category as well. So to have spillover from EB5 earlier than the last quarter looks highly unlikely. I believe that the 8K that we are expecting from EB5 may well be divided between the last quarter bulletins.

Are you sure the Premium processing is already added?

They proposed this on 19th May. I think they are seeking comments by 17th June 2011. Even if they favor this option, i think it will take few months to implement this.

Link to USCIS proposal:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Feedback%20Opportunities/Operartional%20Proposals%20for%20Comment/EB-5-Proposal-18May11.pdf

[qesehmk]

This has been discussed numerous time before. Initially all of us feared if this is the case. But after lots of number crunching people are comfortable that EB5 is not factored in those 12K. Additionally people think that probably there is another 4K in EB1 that might come down to EB2.


Did anyone give this a thought?

EB5 Spills up to EB1 and the 12K we are receiving now is a sum of available EB1 SO and projected EB5 spill-up (~8k) during last quarter?
So effectively the SO from EB1 could actually be only 4k? and there won't be any Spill-Up from EB5 in the last quarter?


Friends there are several news reports to suggest that EB5 is being marketed very aggressively. They have added premium processing for this category as well. So to have spillover from EB5 earlier than the last quarter looks highly unlikely. I believe that the 8K that we are expecting from EB5 may well be divided between the last quarter bulletins.

I agree Teddy. But EB5 doesn't have much of a pipeline and howsoever one markets the fact is that this 0.5 million investment in a not-so-financially-attractive area is not a great value proposition to somebody who already has 0.5M investable money. As a result we should see at least 5-6K SOFAD from EB5.

[TeddyKoochu]

Are you sure the Premium processing is already added?

They proposed this on 19th May. I think they are seeking comments by 17th June 2011. Even if they favor this option, i think it will take few months to implement this.

Link to USCIS proposal:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Feedback%20Opportunities/Operartional%20Proposals%20for%20Comment/EB-5-Proposal-18May11.pdf

Thanks for the correction, looks like they are asking for comments. Looks like that no changes will happen by late Aug so we should get all the SOFAD from EB5. Lets hope for the best.


This has been discussed numerous time before. Initially all of us feared if this is the case. But after lots of number crunching people are comfortable that EB5 is not factored in those 12K. Additionally people think that probably there is another 4K in EB1 that might come down to EB2.
I agree Teddy. But EB5 doesn't have much of a pipeline and howsoever one markets the fact is that this 0.5 million investment in a not-so-financially-attractive area is not a great value proposition to somebody who already has 0.5M investable money. As a result we should see at least 5-6K SOFAD from EB5.

Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed. With regards EB1 by inventory difference only 9 out of the 12K has been allocated and then in the coming months also since there are no fundamental changes we can expect more.

[qesehmk]

Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed.

As you say they are actively working to expedite EB5s by softening and bending rules. So assuming they are able to give GCs and clear whatever pipeline they have ... (which I believe is not more than 2K) then subtracting that 2K from the 8K SOFAD last year gives you 6K. But I guess that's as far worse as it can get.

[skpanda]

Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed. With regards EB1 by inventory difference only 9 out of the 12K has been allocated and then in the coming months also since there are no fundamental changes we can expect more.


As you say they are actively working to expedite EB5s by softening and bending rules. So assuming they are able to give GCs and clear whatever pipeline they have ... (which I believe is not more than 2K) then subtracting that 2K from the 8K SOFAD last year gives you 6K. But I guess that's as far worse as it can get.

I do not think the premium processing will happen in FY2011 (since they are just proposing now.. it will take several months to implement it).
Looking at historic data.. i think we should be able to get 8K... but i agree with Q - lets have a worst case 6K... and best case would be 8k.

More the better for all of us!

[Monica12]

Hello all!
All I can say is WOW! I have just gone through this whole thread and it's amazing. Thank you so much for taking the time to do all this analysis and calculations. It helps people like me who's life decisions are sadly dependent on GC, priority date, VB etc. etc...
Keep up the good work! It is highly appreciated :)

[Spectator]

By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?

If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..skpanda,

If you think about the relative splits of CP/AOS and the different processes employed by DOS and USCIS, CP cases with later PDs are almost certainly going to get approved, whilst AOS cases wouldn't necessarily be.

I'll use theoretical numbers to keep it simple.

If there were a possible combined 10,000 CP/AOS EB2 cases made Current by Cut Off Date movement, then 9,800 would be AOS and only 200 would be CP. That isn't many cases for DOS to process in a month and the PDs of the CP cases would advance rapidly, even when dealt with strictly in PD order.

Additionally, all the CP cases would be processable immediately, since no I-485 is required and the NVC would have previously sent out fee requests etc (in fact everything leading up to the final interview notice.)

In the DOS process, I believe a visa is allocated to the case when the interview notice is generated. Upon successful interview the visa is issued, otherwise it is returned to DOS for reuse.

So, even if the dates retrogressed before the actual interview, the visa would remain available to issue. Even if that were not true, organizing an interview date is far quicker than the USCIS adjudication process for nearly 50 times more cases.

Contrast this to the USCIS process.

Firstly the applicant has to submit an I-485 application, no earlier than the start of the month. They then have to wait for this to be adjudicated, which can take several months.

Finally, at the point of approval, USCIS request the visa for the case. By this point, it is quite possible that the dates have retrogressed and a visa is no longer available to issue.

Even for cases already with USCIS, it takes a lot more approvals to move through the PDs because the numbers are so much larger.

Especially if DOS are trying to build a pipeline and then retrogress the dates, CP cases with later PDs stand a significantly greater chance of being approved within the window when the PD is Current, because they are already in the system, most of the processing has already been done and there are lower numbers to be dealt with.

AOS cases might have to wait up to a year longer for approval, when the dates next advance again.

My thoughts anyway and why CP might have significant advantages in some situations.

[Monica12]

This might be a stupid question..but I was wondering...
If the PD becomes current, for eg. in September and there is retrogression in October. What happens then? Will they definitely process the GC or is the processing delayed because of retrogression in the following months?
The reason I ask is because I'm EB2 I , PD April 30, 2007, I-140 approved, have filed I-485 and hoping I am current in September....

[qesehmk]

monica welcome.

Teddy had few months back talked about this scenario. We have good reasons to believe that they will assign view in September but the actual approval might arrive in Oct.

As per retrogression, the best guess today is that if the dates move at 3 months per month for next 3 months then there won't be any retrogression. If they move faster there will be retro..


This might be a stupid question..but I was wondering...
If the PD becomes current, for eg. in September and there is retrogression in October. What happens then? Will they definitely process the GC or is the processing delayed because of retrogression in the following months?
The reason I ask is because I'm EB2 I , PD April 30, 2007, I-140 approved, have filed I-485 and hoping I am current in September....

[pch053]

If the dates move for 3 months in the next 3 months, then EB2-I PD will reach July'07. Do you think there is a possibility for that? I personally will be very happy if that happens (since my PD is July'07) but that might be stretching things a bit. But, who knows what the scenario will be if there are still more spillover left from EB1!

[qesehmk]

If the dates move for 3 months in the next 3 months, then EB2-I PD will reach July'07. Do you think there is a possibility for that? I personally will be very happy if that happens (since my PD is July'07) but that might be stretching things a bit. But, who knows what the scenario will be if there are still more spillover left from EB1!
Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007. So even if it moves to Jul 07... it will not retrogress in Oct since in Oct there will be another 3K available towards 2012.

[Monica12]

Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months :)

[Monica12]

Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007. So even if it moves to Jul 07... it will not retrogress in Oct since in Oct there will be another 3K available towards 2012.
So, with PD April 30, 2007, even if I can't make it this fiscal year, I might have a chance in Q1 of 2012.....
I have been reading so much on this and was under the impression that things might stall and the next movement for EB2 I is likely only in Q4 of 2012.
Thanks again!

[qesehmk]

No GC is not a done deal ever until you have it in your hand.
Having said that in your particular case, more than likely you are preadj. Only the PWMBs will have to wait until the case moves through all checks.


Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months :)


So, with PD April 30, 2007, even if I can't make it this fiscal year, I might have a chance in Q1 of 2012.....
I have been reading so much on this and was under the impression that things might stall and the next movement for EB2 I is likely only in Q4 of 2012.
Thanks again!
If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not!

[Monica12]

Crystal clear now! Thanks Q.
Hoping and praying it's this year :):)




If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not![/QUOTE]

[Spectator]

Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months :)
Monica,

Sorry if I confused you.

It is not that the I-485 adjudication takes a year (although it may take several months).

The Cut Off Date in the VB has to be later than your PD for 2 crucial parts of the process:

a) To be able to submit the I-485 and have it accepted by USCIS.
b) For the I-485 to be approved when it is adjudicated.

As we have seen before, dates can be Current to allow (a), but then retrogress. The final approval cannot happen until the dates are Current again. For July 2007 filers, this has been several years already.

The (rare) exception to this is if the visa number was allocated when the PD was Current, but the approval date is shortly after the dates have retrogressed.

So, yes, subsequent retrogression can delay the GC, if the Cut Off Dates retrogress to a date equal to or earlier than your PD.

Especially for new filers, if the dates are retrogressed shortly after the filing date, they may well find that they can submit their I-485, but it can't be approved until much later in the year, because EB2-I only has 2.8k visas initially in any FY. Only when sufficient spillover numbers become available, can the I-485 be approved.

Especially if DOS want to build a pipeline of future cases, this is a distinct possibility for many filers with later PDs.

I hope that hasn't confused you even more. :)

[Monica12]

Monica,

Sorry if I confused you.

It is not that the I-485 adjudication takes a year (although it may take several months).

The Cut Off Date in the VB has to be later than your PD for 2 crucial parts of the process:

a) To be able to submit the I-485 and have it accepted by USCIS.
b) For the I-485 to be approved when it is adjudicated.

As we have seen before, dates can be Current to allow (a), but then retrogress. The final approval cannot happen until the dates are Current again. For July 2007 filers, this has been several years already.

The (rare) exception to this is if the visa number was allocated when the PD was Current, but the approval date is shortly after the dates have retrogressed.

So, yes, subsequent retrogression can delay the GC, if the Cut Off Dates retrogress to a date equal to or earlier than your PD.

Especially for new filers, if the dates are retrogressed shortly after the filing date, they may well find that they can submit their I-485, but it can't be approved until much later in the year, because EB2-I only has 2.8k visas initially in any FY. Only when sufficient spillover numbers become available, can the I-485 be approved.

Especially if DOS want to build a pipeline of future cases, this is a distinct possibility for many filers with later PDs.

I hope that hasn't confused you even more. :)

Thanks for the clarification Spec,
No, you didn't confuse me. I get it now :)
I filed my I-485 last minute in the 2007 fiasco, so according to Q , I'm most likely already pre-adjudicated (my online case status shows a SLUD in 2010 too, hoping that's what it is). This means when my PD becomes current, the GC will be approved(fingers crossed).
The retrogression is more of a problem for new I-485 filers ( that's what happened to me in 2007)
Thanks again!!!

[bieber]

Kanmani

The perm number includes EB2 and EB3

[vishnu]

So in 2006, the EB2 : 3 ratio for India was closer to 50% huh. 25703 Perm approvals x 90% (10% rejection at I-140) *50% x 2 to include dependents gets us to the 20k for EB2 I485. Now, it appears the ratio is closer to 80%.

[qesehmk]

Can't say that because the mix of EB2/3 is changing in favor of EB2. It is not known exactly how mcuh it shifted between 06-07.


Yes , the perm number includes Eb2 and Eb3 . What I mean to say is Even for 25K+ perm(2006) , the final eb2 I-485 number is 19K+(2006), Can we expect the total 2007 eb2 I485 numbers less than 20K , since 2007 perm total is less than 2006 perm total?

pls advice

[vishnu]

Q - typically what annual salary would you use in a spreadsheet to determine eb2 / eb3 (obviously guestimate).
I looked at 2009 PERM data just for India.
The EB2 % is as follows:
Min 75,000: 52%
Min 70,000: 63%
Min 65,000: 70%
Min 60,000: 80%

[Spectator]

Yes , the perm number includes Eb2 and Eb3 . What I mean to say is Even for 25K+ perm(2006) , the final eb2 I-485 number is 19K+(2006), Can we expect the total 2007 eb2 I485 numbers less than 20K , since 2007 perm total is less than 2006 perm total?

pls advice
Kanmani,

We don't know that the final number for 2006 was 19k.

The first Inventory was only published in August 2009.

We only know that 19k EB2-I I-485 were remaining at that time, but not the initial total.

By that time, 2006 PD cases could have been approved in July 2007 and some more in July-September 2008 when the Cut Off Date was 01JUN06. Trackitt data suggests none were approved in July 2007 (which is probably to be expected).

The best estimate for 2007 is that there are a further 16k possible EB2-I applications still to be filed by people who have never had a chance to do so, because the underlying PERM for the Primary applicant had not been Certified by the end of July 2007.

[mpurna77]

I just seen this post in trackit
'Not to disappoint all of you guys, but speaking to couple of friends who are being processed under EB2 currently. They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates. This was based on the USCIS feed back to the attorney's. I don't have any kind of proof this, but just from a friend who just got off with the attorney's on his GC process.
Did any one hear anything about this or prob. if you can talk to your attorney's they might have some info ?'.

I have a question is DOS or USCIS give their planning to Attorney in advance??

[qesehmk]

spec nice as always. does your 16k 2006 eb2 exclude row eb2? because they r already processed long back.


Kanmani,

We don't know that the final number for 2006 was 19k.

The first Inventory was only published in August 2009.

We only know that 19k EB2-I I-485 were remaining at that time, but not the initial total.

By that time, 2006 PD cases could have been approved in July 2007 and some more in July-September 2008 when the Cut Off Date was 01JUN06. Trackitt data suggests none were approved in July 2007 (which is probably to be expected).

The best estimate for 2007 is that there are a further 16k possible EB2-I applications still to be filed by people who have never had a chance to do so, because the underlying PERM for the Primary applicant had not been Certified by the end of July 2007.

[qesehmk]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.


I just seen this post in trackit
'Not to disappoint all of you guys, but speaking to couple of friends who are being processed under EB2 currently. They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates. This was based on the USCIS feed back to the attorney's. I don't have any kind of proof this, but just from a friend who just got off with the attorney's on his GC process.
Did any one hear anything about this or prob. if you can talk to your attorney's they might have some info ?'.

I have a question is DOS or USCIS give their planning to Attorney in advance??

[mpurna77]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.

May be its off topic when Bernanke give public statements nowadays after 100 yrs of Fed history, why we need these Attorneys in between. Can't they post on site or give statements directly to Immigration communities.

[ChampU]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.



I'm not sure what "They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates." means and don't know how "slow up things" is a good news??

[Spectator]

spec nice as always. does your 16k 2006 eb2 exclude row eb2? because they r already processed long back.
Q,

Sorry, I should have been clearer.

The 16k refers to the number of EB2-I applicants with PD of Jan-Dec 2007 still waiting to file I-485, based on the PERM calculations.

Virtually all the 2006 people should have filed already, either in July 2007 or in July-September 2008. Most, even audited PERM, had been Certified by then. The numbers don't suggest many others left with 2006 PDs who have never had a chance to file.

The real number of I-485 for 2006 PDs is impossible to say.

Simplistically, taking into account that EB2-I was Current up to September 2005, then the number of 2005 PD approvals in FY2008 would have been relatively lower. EB2-I received nearly 15k visas that year, so a fair number were probably for 2006 PDs.

The true number of EB2-I 2006 PD I-485s would be 19k plus those approved in the 3 months that PDs up to May 31 2006 were Current in FY2008.

I have no idea what the end figure would be, but probably well into the 20ks. Pick a number.

I do think it was a very interesting and astute question Kanmani raised. I wish I could answer it.

[mpurna77]

I'm not sure what "They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates." means and don't know how "slow up things" is a good news??

its not 'slow up things' is good news. when they (DOS) mentioning making things slow when 2007 dates means PD will go to Jan 2007. so its just another 2 months from Q estimates of Mar/Apr 2007.

[Monica12]

Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months :(
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....

[bieber]

once they hit 2007 (july) they have to slowdown to build i485 pipeline :)

[bieber]

Spec,

any idea howmany EB2 I 485s will be in 2008? and 2009? based on perm numbers.

[Monica12]

Beiber, I like your perspective :)
Maybe it will hit June-July 2007 before they decide to slow things down (who knows how they really think anyways? )
This wait is excruciating but I'm keeping my hopes up!!!

[skpanda]

Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months :(
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....

My take on it is...

DOS/USCIS may want to advance dates in a controlled mannen (1 month at a time).. untill they get a healthy pipeline of about 40K+ (for next spill over season).

Below is an Example: Assuming a Spill over + regular quota of 30K in 2012 for EB2IC... they will be left with a pipeline of 20k+ in Oct 2012. Then they may follow the same pattern.

Sep 2011 - PD Mar 2007
Oct 2011 - PD May 2007 (about 4K applications)
Nov 2011 - PD July 2007 (about 4K applications)
Dec 2011 - PD Sep 2007 (about 4K applications)
Jan 2012 - PD Nov 2007 (about 4K applications)
Feb 2012 - PD Jan 2008 (about 4K applications)
Mar 2012 - PD Mar 2008 (about 4K applications)
Apr 2012 - PD May 2008 (about 4K applications)
May 2012 - PD July 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jun 2012 - PD Sept 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jul 2012 - PD Nov 2008 (about 4K applications)
Aug 2012 - PD Jan 2009 (about 4K applications)
Sep 2012 - PD Mar 2009 (about 4K applications)
Oct 2012 - PD June 2008 --- Retrogess

[soggadu]

My take on it is...

DOS/USCIS may want to advance dates in a controlled mannen (1 month at a time).. untill they get a healthy pipeline of about 40K+ (for next spill over season).

Below is an Example: Assuming a Spill over + regular quota of 30K in 2012 for EB2IC... they will be left with a pipeline of 20k+ in Oct 2012. Then they may follow the same pattern.

Sep 2011 - PD Mar 2007
Oct 2011 - PD May 2007 (about 4K applications)
Nov 2011 - PD July 2007 (about 4K applications)
Dec 2011 - PD Sep 2007 (about 4K applications)
Jan 2012 - PD Nov 2007 (about 4K applications)
Feb 2012 - PD Jan 2008 (about 4K applications)
Mar 2012 - PD Mar 2008 (about 4K applications)
Apr 2012 - PD May 2008 (about 4K applications)
May 2012 - PD July 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jun 2012 - PD Sept 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jul 2012 - PD Nov 2008 (about 4K applications)
Aug 2012 - PD Jan 2009 (about 4K applications)
Sep 2012 - PD Mar 2009 (about 4K applications)
Oct 2012 - PD June 2008 --- Retrogess

Interesting approach, but why wouldnt they not do it one shot and retrogress which gives them time to preadjucate the cases rather than moving month by month and putting extra pressure continously?

[Monica12]

Skpanada, It would be great if they did it this way but I don't believe it has happened like this in a long time.
If they are systematic as you suggest, atleast we won't get sleepless nites. This whole process of stalling, retrogressing and sometimes jumping is quite crazy imo.

[veni001]

Q - typically what annual salary would you use in a spreadsheet to determine eb2 / eb3 (obviously guestimate).
I looked at 2009 PERM data just for India.
The EB2 % is as follows:
Min 75,000: 52%
Min 70,000: 63%
Min 65,000: 70%
Min 60,000: 80%

vishnu,
We have discussed this extensively. We can not rely on salary to distinguish between Eb2/Eb3. DOL started publishing PW wage request data, which could provide some what better picture Please check previous posts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29&p=2031#post2031) from Spec

[ChampU]

Interesting approach, but why wouldnt they not do it one shot and retrogress which gives them time to preadjucate the cases rather than moving month by month and putting extra pressure continously?

The problem with bulk movement is that if porting numbers rise or if EB1/EB5/EB2ROW pick up, it would build up huge inventory numbers.The workload on USCIS plate may become unmanageable and lead to wastage of visas.
The phased approach allows the DOS to remain flexible with the PD movements.

[veni001]

Spec,

any idea howmany EB2 I 485s will be in 2008? and 2009? based on perm numbers.

Biber,
Please check the PERM Data Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI), our estimate is for EB2I is 70% and 80% respectively for 2008 & 2009.

[veni001]

My Guess is here

I just took >60K PW amount as minimum level for Eb-2 along with having a look at job title and job level
My approx 2008 eb2 perm total is between 11,000 to 13,000 ( raw Filtering )
2009 eb2 perm total is between 8000 to 10,000

other guess any ?

Kanmani,
As of 2011Q2 PERM data release EB2I got about 23,000 PERM approvals with PD2008 and another 16,000 PERM approvals with PD2009.
If we take an average of 70-30 (EB2-EB3) ratio and 1.2 dependent factor could means 60,000 i-485 for 2008&2009 just for India!

[skpanda]

Interesting approach, but why wouldnt they not do it one shot and retrogress which gives them time to preadjucate the cases rather than moving month by month and putting extra pressure continously?


If they do it in a single shot.. they will have to handle a huge volume of applications in a single month. USCIS always complains about have thin staff blah blah. So I am confident that they will advance the dates in a controller manner. Not necessarily in the same way that i mentioned.

[pch053]

I just came across this post in trackitt; not sure how reliable it is and what what one can deduce from the same. The post is below:

================================================== ================================================== =====================
My company lawyer (A top notch law firm in east coast) says EB2-I PD could move as far as Q1 2008 by sep 2011. He said he got this information from his govt. liaison. I have strong reason to believe my company lawyer because he really has good contacts in the govt. My personal experience: USCIS screwed up the PD on my I-140 (I-140 approval notice had wrong PD). My company lawyer worked with govt. liaison and got it fixed in one week. That was amazingly fast knowing how efficient USCIS is.

The lawyer said EB2-I PD would move to Q1 2008, but, what exact month/date in Q1 depends on how many I-485 applications will be approved in the upcoming months.

This makes sense because even NVC has started sending out letters asking to pay fees for CP applicants with PD up to March 2008.

I just hope all of us waiting to file I-485 will get a chance this year.

================================================== ================================================== =====================

[Spectator]

My take on it is...

DOS/USCIS may want to advance dates in a controlled mannen (1 month at a time).. untill they get a healthy pipeline of about 40K+ (for next spill over season).

Below is an Example: Assuming a Spill over + regular quota of 30K in 2012 for EB2IC... they will be left with a pipeline of 20k+ in Oct 2012. Then they may follow the same pattern.

Sep 2011 - PD Mar 2007
Oct 2011 - PD May 2007 (about 4K applications)
Nov 2011 - PD July 2007 (about 4K applications)
Dec 2011 - PD Sep 2007 (about 4K applications)
Jan 2012 - PD Nov 2007 (about 4K applications)
Feb 2012 - PD Jan 2008 (about 4K applications)
Mar 2012 - PD Mar 2008 (about 4K applications)
Apr 2012 - PD May 2008 (about 4K applications)
May 2012 - PD July 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jun 2012 - PD Sept 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jul 2012 - PD Nov 2008 (about 4K applications)
Aug 2012 - PD Jan 2009 (about 4K applications)
Sep 2012 - PD Mar 2009 (about 4K applications)
Oct 2012 - PD June 2008 --- RetrogessThe reason I don't think it will happen in a progressive way, as above, is that DOS have to nominally stick to the law.

When we reach October, there are only about 3k visas initially available to each of EB2 I&C.

Further, DOS are not allowed to issue more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

The Cut Off Date represents the date of the first applicant who cannot be issued a visa.

DOS are going to have to bend the law a bit to build the pipeline, but I don't think they will break it in such a flagrant manner, although I accept anything is possible since it is uncharted territory.

They do, however, have to allow enough time for USCIS to process new filings to completion, so that it turns into Demand.

So, as has been discussed previously, they might make a large forward movement in April/May VB (if they don't do it in September) to allow new applications to be filed, followed by retrogressing until spillover season when there are enough visas available to actually approve them.

The advantage of this approach is that DOS have several months to gauge demand in the contributors to spillover.

The disadvantage (and it is a huge one) is that it relies on USCIS processing the cases in a timely manner. The USCIS stated goal is 4 months, so it really isn't a DOS problem if USCIS cannot or won't meet those targets.

By the time that becomes apparent, it will be too late to generate new demand within EB2. DOS can either take account of that by building a bigger buffer (possibly even earlier), or accept that if USCIS can't process the cases, they can always allocate unused visas to EB3 by advancing their Cut Off Dates later in the year. Those cases are generally pre-adjudicated, so they could easily take up the slack due to USCIS inefficiency and EB3 has more CP cases which DOS can handle themselves.

I think that covers most of the bases.

I am not saying that is what will happen, but they are all viable options.

I could be wrong, but that is how I would do it.

[Spectator]

70-30 seems to be too high end for me . 60-40 is reasonable . ( or 65-35) There are too many Level I + less than 60K salary group among them . Even for level II + 60 K in the IT field dont match Bach + 5 PW amt. Mine is raw calculations and personal opinion based upon perm data only .


I know Veni you guys are compiling valuable data and more experienced after reading all your posts and effort. I am simply doing raw calculations , because this is very interesting .

Kanmani,

Search for the posts where Prevailing Wage Data was analyzed by minimum educational and experience requirements. That is a much better indicator than salary, since there are high paid EB3s and low paid EB2s depending in what sector they work in.

Whilst the figures might be skewed slightly on the high side, it has shown a consistent 70:30 overall split of EB2:EB3 for all Countries since the data was made available (in 2010 I believe).

We would expect the split for India to be even more biased towards EB2.

Earlier years may be lower figures, since porting has probably increased the EB2 %, but I doubt EB2-I has dipped below 60:40, given the retrogression in EB3-I and is almost certainly higher than that in recent years. The Trackitt figures back this up.

With Q's permission, I will post it in the FACTS & DATA section when I have time. Edit: DONE.

[qesehmk]

Spec nobody needs nobody's permission my friend. Post what you find valuable!


With Q's permission, I will post it in the FACTS & DATA section when I have time.

[veni001]

I just came across this post in trackitt; not sure how reliable it is and what what one can deduce from the same. The post is below:

================================================== ================================================== =====================
My company lawyer (A top notch law firm in east coast) says EB2-I PD could move as far as Q1 2008 by sep 2011. He said he got this information from his govt. liaison. I have strong reason to believe my company lawyer because he really has good contacts in the govt. My personal experience: USCIS screwed up the PD on my I-140 (I-140 approval notice had wrong PD). My company lawyer worked with govt. liaison and got it fixed in one week. That was amazingly fast knowing how efficient USCIS is.

The lawyer said EB2-I PD would move to Q1 2008, but, what exact month/date in Q1 depends on how many I-485 applications will be approved in the upcoming months.

This makes sense because even NVC has started sending out letters asking to pay fees for CP applicants with PD up to March 2008.

I just hope all of us waiting to file I-485 will get a chance this year.

================================================== ================================================== =====================

pch053,
Let's hope so.

[veni001]

Thanks Spec . I agree that the split is rising towards Eb2, coz everybody wants to file in Eb2 ( which is reasonable), but still Indians have a disadvantage of 3 year degree program which is a big hurdle . Because of this there are good numbers of EB3 in the recent years . But they are trying in every way to file under Eb2 category . Many eb3 filers have multiple perms which in turn affects/increases our estimate .

Kanmani,
Things changed post 2005, I don't think very many people with 3yr degrees are coming to US these days.

[ssvp22]

Thanks Spec . I agree that the split is rising towards Eb2, coz everybody wants to file in Eb2 ( which is reasonable), but still Indians have a disadvantage of 3 year degree program which is a big hurdle . Because of this there are good numbers of EB3 in the recent years . But they are trying in every way to file under Eb2 category . Many eb3 filers have multiple perms which in turn affects/increases our estimate .
It would not be fun to get into EB2-EB2 porting discussions, again. This is the sole reason that at least i have stopped viewing Trackitt where the only thing one could find were EB2-EB3 porting flame wars. People who port from EB3 to EB2 follow a legal process and get approved only when their case is valid. Each and every case that gets through the process is as valid as the next one. As far as how many people are porting, sudden increase in porting numbers(imagine any crazy number) is not possible since the job market is pretty much dead, as has been the case for past 3 years. In such a scenario, even to maintain your current job on visa is big deal, and impossible to find a new good company who will spend $20k on your H1, and GC. Besides that, anyone before August 2007 anyway has EAD and can switch employer using AC21. As a result they are in no real hurry to port.

[veni001]

It would not be fun to get into EB2-EB2 porting discussions, again. This is the sole reason that at least i have stopped viewing Trackitt where the only thing one could find were EB2-EB3 porting flame wars. People who port from EB3 to EB2 follow a legal process and get approved only when their case is valid. Each and every case that gets through the process is as valid as the next one. As far as how many people are porting, sudden increase in porting numbers(imagine any crazy number) is not possible since the job market is pretty much dead, as has been the case for past 3 years. In such a scenario, even to maintain your current job on visa is big deal, and impossible to find a new good company who will spend $20k on your H1, and GC. Besides that, anyone before August 2007 anyway has EAD and can switch employer using AC21. As a result they are in no real hurry to port.

ssvp22,
Valid points to note.

[Spectator]

Spec nobody needs nobody's permission my friend. Post what you find valuable!

Q,

I know you don't mind, but it is always polite to ask.

Besides, you are GURU now!

How do I address you?:D

PS I'm glad I have done it, considering how long it took me to track down the original postings!

[qesehmk]

LoL
I brought the Guru threshold to 300. So I am not the only Guru around!

Q,

I know you don't mind, but it is always polite to ask.

Besides, you are GURU now!

How do I address you?:D

PS I'm glad I have done it, considering how long it took me to track down the original postings!

[skpanda]

If this turns out to be true.. unfortunately it will not help people like me who have PD in 2010... but then I cannot complain... people had to wait for atleast 2/3 yrs.

Good luck to all of you!!
S



I just came across this post in trackitt; not sure how reliable it is and what what one can deduce from the same. The post is below:

================================================== ================================================== =====================
My company lawyer (A top notch law firm in east coast) says EB2-I PD could move as far as Q1 2008 by sep 2011. He said he got this information from his govt. liaison. I have strong reason to believe my company lawyer because he really has good contacts in the govt. My personal experience: USCIS screwed up the PD on my I-140 (I-140 approval notice had wrong PD). My company lawyer worked with govt. liaison and got it fixed in one week. That was amazingly fast knowing how efficient USCIS is.

The lawyer said EB2-I PD would move to Q1 2008, but, what exact month/date in Q1 depends on how many I-485 applications will be approved in the upcoming months.

This makes sense because even NVC has started sending out letters asking to pay fees for CP applicants with PD up to March 2008.

I just hope all of us waiting to file I-485 will get a chance this year.
================================================== ================================================== =====================

[veni001]

Veni

Many people who came before 2005 filed between 2007 to 2009 got rejected in I140 level and refiled in eb3 . My point is this multiple perm affects total eb2 I-485 guesstimate, as you estimated around 60,000.

My guess is

25,000 eb2 I-485 for 2008 + 18000 for 2009

Kanmani,
I agree that multiple PERMs skew our estimates, but based on i140 trending (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI) and recent USCIS comments confirming that porting is not really as high as estimated, i believe our estimates are not too far from the reality!

[grnwtg]

Has anyone else here (or friends) with priority date in 2008 eb2 got any letter from NVC asking to pay fee details? . Looks like they might have more than 6k of eb1 number ( as 12k came out of 2nd quarter), dates might easily go to may or june 2007. But main question is how will they prepare for next year?, i think there will be fewer people with priority date between july 2007 and december 2007. Main reason of spike in jan to june 2007 applications is because of news that substitute labors are going to stop in june'2007. Out of my friends who got gc around 30-40 people, most of them came to united states only in 2005-2007 and 90% of them got subsitute labors, to my knowledge number of application should decrease after july 2007.
Anyway i am being very optimistic so that my dates will be current for atleast EAD, i am not even thinking of GC right now.

[grnwtg]

Nice to see this forum unlike others where there is more noise than voice.

[vishnu]

Grnwtg - 16500 and 11500 PERMS were certified for India in FY 2008 and 2009 respectively. Even if you assume a 10% rejection rate at I-140 and 65% are EB2, that imples around 32,000 I-485s are pending for just those 2 years (including dependents). If you assume there are multiple perms included in the perm certification, we would still have about 25k 485s pending. Since there won't be much China backlog, any spillover similar to what we are seeing now we could clear that FY 2008 and 2009 in a year (optimistic assumptions here of course). But I don't think Dos would know any of the spillover trends till at least Q2 FY 2012, when they may move dates to end FY 2009. Don't think they would open then up now itself... Anyting is possible, but just my views. But the current situation is unprecedented in that the pipeline will be over soon and demand in FY 08 and FY 09 is definitely lower than prior years... so hope we can see positive news.

[vishnu]

Tks Kanmani - but why do we calculate for CY when spillovers / priority dates are all based on FY.

[TeddyKoochu]

If we look at the inventory for 2007 for India the EB2 Total is 9918 and EB3 Total is 4616. None of these points have ever been current after 2007. This gives the ratio as 68%. However Iam sure now that there is more clarity even fewer people are applying in EB3. The only reasons to file in EB3 are a) 6th Year extension, Eb3 approval is safer than EB2 b)Having a PD to port later c) Company policy to file in EB3 d) Only a 3 yr degree with no addendum. The ratio for EB2 - EB3 is easily 75-25 now and as many people have put it the total EB2 India / China backlog might well be 100K.

[nayekal]

05/27/2011: House Bill Exempting from Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year

* We reported earlier that there was a bill introduced in the House a few days back entitled "Emergency Nursing Supply Relief Act" to relieve this country from nursing shortage. This bill provides that if Schedule A I-140 petition is "filed" before 09/30/2014, such professional nurses are exempted from employment-based immigrant visa numerical limitation upto 20,000 per year if such petition is approved. Additionally such nurses' "accompanying or following-to-join" family members (spouse and children) are also exempted from the numerical limit, no matter how many the numbers would be. Accordingly, the annual limit of this special 20,000 per year will count only principal beneficiary of Schedule A petition, nurses. It means that such qualified Scheduled A immigrant petition will produce a much larger than 20,000 who receive the benefits of exemption from the annual numerical limits regardless of immigrant visa cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin. This bill also provides recapture of unused 20,000 numerical limit exempted numbers in the following year.
* Good deal for the foreign nurses!

This is a news from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

I think, this is a good news for us too as whoever are in EB2 queue for nurses category doesn't need visa assigned from this quota and those numbers might be used for rest. Also, this is an ongoing process for future visa allocation as well.

[skpanda]

I did not know that nurses would qualify for EB categories. If they qualify is it possible to get any historical information as to how many nurses usually apply under EB1 and EB2. Is there a way to determine this? That will be an important fact to know... since those numbers will be straight away used by retrogessed EB2IC.

Example calculation:

If 20K nurses applied in EB1 and EB2. Then total GC numbers would be atleast 40K (assuming the dependent factor of 2). So if we get 40K every year, EB2IC should be current in next 1 or 2 years. Ofcourse if nurses qualify for EB3.. then EB2 IC wont get any numbers.

Q and others.. what do you think.. can you give your inputs on this please!

S


05/27/2011: House Bill Exempting from Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year

* We reported earlier that there was a bill introduced in the House a few days back entitled "Emergency Nursing Supply Relief Act" to relieve this country from nursing shortage. This bill provides that if Schedule A I-140 petition is "filed" before 09/30/2014, such professional nurses are exempted from employment-based immigrant visa numerical limitation upto 20,000 per year if such petition is approved. Additionally such nurses' "accompanying or following-to-join" family members (spouse and children) are also exempted from the numerical limit, no matter how many the numbers would be. Accordingly, the annual limit of this special 20,000 per year will count only principal beneficiary of Schedule A petition, nurses. It means that such qualified Scheduled A immigrant petition will produce a much larger than 20,000 who receive the benefits of exemption from the annual numerical limits regardless of immigrant visa cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin. This bill also provides recapture of unused 20,000 numerical limit exempted numbers in the following year.
* Good deal for the foreign nurses!

This is a news from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

I think, this is a good news for us too as whoever are in EB2 queue for nurses category doesn't need visa assigned from this quota and those numbers might be used for rest. Also, this is an ongoing process for future visa allocation as well.

[TeddyKoochu]

I did not know that nurses would qualify for EB categories. If they qualify is it possible to get any historical information as to how many nurses usually apply under EB1 and EB2. Is there a way to determine this? That will be an important fact to know... since those numbers will be straight away used by retrogessed EB2IC.

Example calculation:

If 20K nurses applied in EB1 and EB2. Then total GC numbers would be atleast 40K (assuming the dependent factor of 2). So if we get 40K every year, EB2IC should be current in next 1 or 2 years. Ofcourse if nurses qualify for EB3.. then EB2 IC wont get any numbers.

Q and others.. what do you think.. can you give your inputs on this please!

S

AFAIK nurses qualify for EB3 - Other Workers group, doctors would qualify for EB2. However as of now the news item only suggests that the bill has been introduced its still far from being passed. Recapture of wasted visa numbers can be very helpful this was the accelerant for Jul 2007 happening when 60K visas were recaptured and some of it was related to nurses.

[skpanda]

Well then if this bill is passed.. then it will be relief for EB3 and may act as precedent for any future bill to remove dependents from numerical limitation in EB based categories.




AFAIK nurses qualify for EB3 - Other Workers group, doctors would qualify for EB2. However as of now the news item only suggests that the bill has been introduced its still far from being passed. Recapture of wasted visa numbers can be very helpful this was the accelerant for Jul 2007 happening when 60K visas were recaptured and some of it was related to nurses.

[Spectator]

AFAIK nurses qualify for EB3 - Other Workers group, doctors would qualify for EB2. However as of now the news item only suggests that the bill has been introduced its still far from being passed. Recapture of wasted visa numbers can be very helpful this was the accelerant for Jul 2007 happening when 60K visas were recaptured and some of it was related to nurses.
Teddy,

I've been waiting for the text of this Bill (H.R.1929) to be published. I guess it was finally made available today. I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

My understanding is that nurses can qualify under EB3 as Aliens with at least two years of experience as skilled workers, but the base nursing qualification does not generally qualify under Professionals with a baccalaureate degree.

Since the end of special Schedule A visas and the H1C program, the problem for nurses with the base qualification is that they tend not qualify for H1B, unless they also have a BSc in Nursing.

Specialist nurses can take an MSc and qualify for EB2, but I think this is a relatively small number.

This has led to a very large number of nurses who want to come to the USA (which has a shortage), but can't. I think the biggest numbers are from the Philippines, possibly followed by India.

The NVC data shows 45k EB3 Philippines cases under Consular Processing. I would hazard a guess that a large proportion of these are nurses and physical therapists.

Although I am pessimistic about the Bill progressing, any introduction of the idea of exempting dependents from numerical limitations is a great step. If it could pass, even for one group, it would make it easier to pass for all of EB.

[qesehmk]

Spec Teddy and all ...

This is a very good piece of legislation and hope it gets passed. I think dependents making independent of quota would work wonders for backlogged immigration process including EB3. Albeit this particular one only will set a precedent rather than bring huge relief.

I must say guys the quality of discussion gets elevated when somebody brings things such as this to everybodys notice. Thanks for this.




Teddy,

I've been waiting for the text of this Bill (H.R.1929) to be published. I guess it was finally made available today. I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

My understanding is that nurses can qualify under EB3 as Aliens with at least two years of experience as skilled workers, but the base nursing qualification does not generally qualify under Professionals with a baccalaureate degree.

Since the end of special Schedule A visas and the H1C program, the problem for nurses with the base qualification is that they tend not qualify for H1B, unless they also have a BSc in Nursing.

Specialist nurses can take an MSc and qualify for EB2, but I think this is a relatively small number.

This has led to a very large number of nurses who want to come to the USA (which has a shortage), but can't. I think the biggest numbers are from the Philippines, possibly followed by India.

The NVC data shows 45k EB3 Philippines cases under Consular Processing. I would hazard a guess that a large proportion of these are nurses and physical therapists.

Although I am pessimistic about the Bill progressing, any introduction of the idea of exempting dependents from numerical limitations is a great step. If it could pass, even for one group, it would make it easier to pass for all of EB.

[gcseeker]

Spec

great lateral analysis on the issue and thanks to nayekal for posting this. I do not wish to rain on the parade however but the chances of this legislation passing are slim to none. Congress is deadlocked on both the medicare, budget, deficit ceiling and other issues.

In this environment any party that even tries to do something about Legal Immigration ( leave aside the illegal immigration issue ) will have an big red target painted on its back. The startup visa bill which was heavily favoured by the pro business republican base could not even get through the second judiciary house committee.

I would not want people's hopes to get dashed.So it is better we set realistic expectations...Expect no bill to get passed untill early 2013.The strongest Latino campaigners for the Democratic party who represent a very lucrative vote bank themselves are saying Comprehensive Immigration reform is a dead fish in the water.

What to say of these bills...It will help a lot of people no doubt.But Nada Zilch chance of passing.

Sorry to be a killjoy on a friday.... :(

[TeddyKoochu]

@spec - As usual very thorough and comprehensive details from your side. You always set the standards.
@skpanda / q / gcseeker - The provisions of the bill are great and definitely need to be welcomed, any relief is good and setting a precedent like excluding dependents would be really good. Friends I checked the status of this bill - http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1929 most bills at the status referred to committee really go nowhere. I agree with gcseeker on that.

[Spectator]

I know this is the EB2 Calculations thread, but I hope you will allow me the leeway to post something about EB3 effects IF this Bill were to pass.

Although there were some Schedule A visas given in FY2007, essentially the program ceased at the end of CY2006. In the last VB where visas were generally available in November 2006 the Cut Off Date retrogressed from C to 01OCT05.

EB3-ROW and EB3-P are rapidly approaching that date, standing at 15SEP05 for June 2011.

If Philippines demand ramps up from that date, we might expect their Cut Off Date to retrogress away from EB3-ROW during late 2005 or as we move through 2006 PDs next year. It will hit at the very latest when PDs reach 2007.

In turn, this almost certainly means that Philippines will use its full 7% allocation, most of which is allocated within EB3. Since they generally only use around 3k in all other EB categories, that would be 7k in EB3.

Since overuse by Mexico and Philippines within EB3 is compensated by reducing the EB3-ROW allocation, the EB3-ROW Cut Off date might not advance as rapidly. This in turns delays EB3-ROW becoming Current and Fall Across being allocated to EB3-I.

If the Bill were to pass and EB3-P does indeed contain large numbers of nurses, then the other EB3-P applicants would probably consume less than the overall 7% (since they can't pass the EB3-ROW Cut Off date), in turn accelerating EB3-ROW progress.

Of course, nurses come from all Countries, so it potentially stretches the visa allocations for everybody. If the 20k primary only extra visas per year last until the end of FY2014, then that could make significant movement possible.

So I think approval of the Bill would be tremendous news for everyone in EB3, even though it might not benefit everybody immediately.

Unfortunately, I don't think it will pass, but it still good to see Bills benefiting EB categories being submitted.

PS I can't remember if it has been discussed or not here, but the other interesting Bill that was introduced recently is :

H.R. 1796: Reuniting Families Act. http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1796

Amongst other things, it proposes recapturing all wasted visas since 1992, allowing wasted visas in the previous year to be re-used and increases the per Country limit to 10%. In addition, for F2A, it reclassifies Spouses and Children of LPRs as Immediate Relatives, who are therefore exempt from numerical limitations.

[Spectator]

Credit to natvyas for the heads up.

The new USCIS Inventory for June 2011 is now available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

Yipee!!

[angryclubs]

Time for crunching numbers again guys. Let me know if you want some Glenlivet delivered to your doorstep :)
Can we hear first impressions from the experts?

EDIT: I am hitting F5 key every minute

[Monica12]

Time for crunching numbers again guys. Let me know if you want some Glenlivet delivered to your doorstep :)
Can we hear first impressions from the experts?

EDIT: I am hitting F5 key every minute

Yes, Can't wait to see what the experts think :)
BTW, angryclubs, I never knew one could refresh a page by pressing F5 key, Duh... Well, I learnt one more thing from this awesome site today!

[skpanda]

When I click on the link - it says -


404 - Requested Page Not Found on Site


The page you requested is not on our site.

Please look for related information on the USCIS Home Page.

Sorry for any inconvenience.





Credit to natvyas for the heads up.

The new USCIS Inventory for June 2011 is now available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Yipee!!

[suninphx]

When I click on the link - it says -


404 - Requested Page Not Found on Site


The page you requested is not on our site.

Please look for related information on the USCIS Home Page.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

Try this:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[skpanda]

Thanks...


I wonder why the document is not posted along with all previous inventories..

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD




Try this:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[GlimmerOfHope]

Because its future dated. see carefully it says Jun 2011 at the top. May be its used for internal purpose and not supposed to be for general public yet.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Natvyas / Spec.

Its funny tehy call it Jun inventory when its only May. I don't know what to make of it.

But lets do some math.

EB2 approx has 17K through Dec 2006. Other than that EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which 1K is 2011, 4K is 2010, 2K 2009, 1.5K prior.

Since through Jun the date is moved to Oct 06. We only need to look at the inventory past that point for any post June SOFAD. The post June SOFAD will be in the range of
4-8K EB1 + 4-8K EB2ROW + 6-8K EB5 = 14-24K TOTAL incremental

This 14-24K will be applied to post OCT 2006 inventory. So at the low end that gives Apr 2007. At higher end it takes it post Jul 2007!!!

This is amazing. First of all it means that the dates have been moved to OCt 2006 not just based on 12K from EB1. May be its more than that. Secondly whatever that more is .... is either coming from EB1 itself (then its a bummer) or its is coming from ROW (which I am inclining towards).

The reason I think the latter is because look at ROW inventory which is 8K... and it includes 4K from 2010. It means one and only one thing they are not in a hurry to approve ROW. So the question is why?

And it only points me to one thing and don't take it to bank my friends ------ I think they want to move the dates all the way past Aug 2007 and make it current.

Guys ... I have just landed and opened my computer and penned it down. So don't bash me if I made some obvious mistakes. Please criticize and tear apart my logic! But I would be really glad if the dates do go post Aug 2007 for so many PWMBs will get to file.

[Spectator]

Since through Jun the date is moved to Oct 06. We only need to look at the inventory past that point for any post June SOFAD.
Q,

I think this is where I would have a slightly different viewpoint.

The title of the document is Employment Based I-485 Pending Inventory as of June 2011.

Unhelpfully, USCIS didn't specify an exact date as before, but given it has been compiled now, I would take that to mean as of June 01, 2011, even if that is not entirely true.

Since the document isn't anywhere officially on the USCIS site that I can find (and I don't know how Natvyas managed to find it), I suspect it is due to be officially released early next week.

I don't think USCIS will be at the stage where they know all the cases they are going to approve in June itself, nor do I think they would try to predict them in this public document, so I favour it being the situation as of today (or June 01 to be precise), since it is possible they have requested those visas already, or they consider the number insignificant as far as the report goes.

In that case, you have to look at Inventory from July 2006 onwards for EB2-I and August 2006 onwards for EB2-C.

In that case, it probably doesn't alter the situation very much.

Finally, even if there is a mismatch between the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand data (seen most evidently in EB3-ROW), then DOS would use their own figures to set the Cut Off Dates.

Hopefully, this can be clarified by the next Demand Data release, due within the next 2 weeks.

As a PS, natvyas mentioned that he couldn't post the news himself, as the forum said he was unauthorized to do so. It would be nice if we could resolve that problem, (whatever the cause), by way of a thank you.

Have a great weekend and holiday.

[skpanda]

Q,
I will steal your phrase here... with a little twist..

'If this is true, aapke ke muh mein Haldirams Mithayi ka pura inventory!!'

My PD is Dec 2010 and if DOS makes the dates current it will help me take some important personal and professional decisions.
I had been a slacker/lazy in the past towards Green Card processing on couple of occassions, otherwise, my PD would have been in early 2007.

Good Luck to all of us..
S



Thanks Natvyas / Spec.

Its funny tehy call it Jun inventory when its only May. I don't know what to make of it.

But lets do some math.

EB2 approx has 17K through Dec 2006. Other than that EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which 1K is 2011, 4K is 2010, 2K 2009, 1.5K prior.

Since through Jun the date is moved to Oct 06. We only need to look at the inventory past that point for any post June SOFAD. The post June SOFAD will be in the range of
4-8K EB1 + 4-8K EB2ROW + 6-8K EB5 = 14-24K TOTAL incremental

This 14-24K will be applied to post OCT 2006 inventory. So at the low end that gives Apr 2007. At higher end it takes it post Jul 2007!!!

This is amazing. First of all it means that the dates have been moved to OCt 2006 not just based on 12K from EB1. May be its more than that. Secondly whatever that more is .... is either coming from EB1 itself (then its a bummer) or its is coming from ROW (which I am inclining towards).

The reason I think the latter is because look at ROW inventory which is 8K... and it includes 4K from 2010. It means one and only one thing they are not in a hurry to approve ROW. So the question is why?

And it only points me to one thing and don't take it to bank my friends ------ I think they want to move the dates all the way past Aug 2007 and make it current.
Guys ... I have just landed and opened my computer and penned it down. So don't bash me if I made some obvious mistakes. Please criticize and tear apart my logic! But I would be really glad if the dates do go post Aug 2007 for so many PWMBs will get to file.

[gcwait2007]

Thanks Natvyas / Spec.

Its funny tehy call it Jun inventory when its only May. I don't know what to make of it.

But lets do some math.

EB2 approx has 17K through Dec 2006. Other than that EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which 1K is 2011, 4K is 2010, 2K 2009, 1.5K prior.

Since through Jun the date is moved to Oct 06. We only need to look at the inventory past that point for any post June SOFAD. The post June SOFAD will be in the range of
4-8K EB1 + 4-8K EB2ROW + 6-8K EB5 = 14-24K TOTAL incremental

This 14-24K will be applied to post OCT 2006 inventory. So at the low end that gives Apr 2007. At higher end it takes it post Jul 2007!!!

This is amazing. First of all it means that the dates have been moved to OCt 2006 not just based on 12K from EB1. May be its more than that. Secondly whatever that more is .... is either coming from EB1 itself (then its a bummer) or its is coming from ROW (which I am inclining towards).

The reason I think the latter is because look at ROW inventory which is 8K... and it includes 4K from 2010. It means one and only one thing they are not in a hurry to approve ROW. So the question is why?

And it only points me to one thing and don't take it to bank my friends ------ I think they want to move the dates all the way past Aug 2007 and make it current.

Guys ... I have just landed and opened my computer and penned it down. So don't bash me if I made some obvious mistakes. Please criticize and tear apart my logic! But I would be really glad if the dates do go post Aug 2007 for so many PWMBs will get to file.

Q/ Spec & Others,

Thanks for posting the Inventory data as of June 2011.

Few quick points noted by me:

1. The data does not include CP and includes Service centers and Field Offices only. It is just inventory data giving the number of cases pending with USCIS, whether qualified or not. It is a USCIS report. Monthly determination of demand data is prepared by DoS and based on which CO and his team prepares cut off dates.

2. Although title says June 2011, it should be taken as 06/01/2011 (1st day of June 2011)

3. I remember one of Q's posts, where he mentioned that 6K was the spillover allocated in June 2011, moving EB2 IC cut off dates to 15 Oct 2006. As per my calculation, it is 8K, from the data.

4. Number of porting cases and who missed PWMB is less than 200 from EB2 India (increase in number of applications) for the applicants between July 2006 and December 2006. This is a really a good news and I was anxious about the number of upgrades and PWMB. If their number were to overwhelm, then it would be difficult to move the cut off dates. Over all, upgrades and PWMB seems to be less than estimated or would not exceed the estimated number of 3000.

5. In the absence of of info such as how many visas issued so far, countries wise and how much is left over for issue from June 2011 to end of this fiscal year 2011, this report does not give me any understanding. It leads us back to our inconclusive predicting game. I would be better off if I can do this kind of predicting game in Las Vegas casino. (Atlantis is also OK, NC is average, Detroit is not good).

6. Based on data provided Spec-o-rama and others, I would continue to hope that there will be further spill over of about 4K to 6K in EB1, 5.5K from EB2 ROW and another 5.8K from EB5. Total spillover available would be in the range of 14K to 18K. EB2 india and china would move to March-April 2007.

[Spectator]

Q,

It is a holiday weekend and I don't have much available time to do a proper analysis.

When an Inventory comes out, rather than looking forward from those figures, I prefer to try to calculate what the revised October 1 situation would have to have been, then apply the whole predicted SOFAD to that figure.

A very simplistic calculation for EB2-I.

June Inventory total - 22,536
Approved to date (estimate) - 4,770
Derived October starting figure - 27,306

Actual October starting figure - 24,254 (from Old Inventory)

Underlying change - An addition of 3,052 cases between October 1 and the end of May.

I actually make a more complicated calculation, but that gives an idea.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Agree on DoS using their own numbers to set the dates. And historically that has been the cause of retrogression. But as can be seen the discrepancy has reduced a lot over last few years with the concept of preadjudication.

Regarding "NEWS" ... only admins can post news. Other users can always post a normal post in EB2 thread. And that's not my choice, that's how vbulletin works. So sorry folks ... you simply need to add a normal post and then an admin can always post it as a news. I would request admin to break the news and give credit to folks which is what SPEC already did.


Now about date movement
I think all of us understand that moving a date to a certain point and having all teh visas to clear all the demand upto that date are not exactly the same thing!! Otherwise there would never ever be retrogression!!! Right.

So from that standpoint, what I had posted earlier is only incremental analysis to teh dates. The reason I am not using Jul/aug 2006 is because teh date is already moved to Oct based on the expected spillover that is going to be available in June. If you do not use that assumption then increase EB1 range to 9-15K + 4-8K from ROW + 6-8K from EB5 = 19-31K total.

Now mind you these numbers 19-31K are free from portings. They will be applied solely to backlog and PWMBS. But we have already discussed that PWMBs are predominant in the range Jan-Jul 2007. And they can't be processed this fast. So that means 19-31K will be applied to the inventory post Jul-06. Do the math. That gives us a range of first week of Mar to all the way Aug 2007. It seems too good to be true. However consider this, when we started teh year, our fears were portings and PWMBs impacting current backlog. Both turned out mild impacts so far. (by the way I do not call anybody with post Jul07 as PWMB because for them the boat left before their labor approved). Then EB1 has shown considerable promise, ROW inventory in Jun is showing considerable promise. If they have 4K to be processed from 2010 and 2K from 2009 that tells you that USCIS is not in a hurry to process those over EB2IC from 2006-07. As I always keep saying this indicates policy taking precedence over processing.

EB5 is a bit of a dark horse. But not much since even if USCIS accelerates a number of things ... the demand inherently is not there. Thus there is reasonable SOFAD and all SOFAD is exclusively going to be used for clearing the backlog which is now becoming apparent.

Again my numbers may be off by 1-2K here and there. But what I have tried to lay out is a thought process. Mar-Aug 2007. Take your pick!!


Q,

In that case, you have to look at Inventory from July 2006 onwards for EB2-I and August 2006 onwards for EB2-C.

....

Finally, even if there is a mismatch between the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand data (seen most evidently in EB3-ROW), then DOS would use their own figures to set the Cut Off Dates.

....

As a PS, natvyas mentioned that he couldn't post the news himself, as the forum said he was unauthorized to do so. It would be nice if we could resolve that problem, (whatever the cause), by way of a thank you.




Q,
I will steal your phrase here... with a little twist..

'If this is true, aapke ke muh mein Haldirams Mithayi ka pura inventory!!'

My PD is Dec 2010 and if DOS makes the dates current it will help me take some important personal and professional decisions.
I had been a slacker/lazy in the past towards Green Card processing on couple of occassions, otherwise, my PD would have been in early 2007.

Good Luck to all of us..
S
Good luck skpanda! Mine was supposed to be Apr 2003, pushed to Mar 2005, company F'd the date and now its Mar 2007. Welcome to GC land aka screw-the-career-card.
Sorry for the fowl language. Other admins I wouldn't mind if YOU delete this one. Sometimes I can't help myself.

[qesehmk]

GCW very astute post. Pls note my post is only directly correct. I didn't bother to get the exact numbers from what we have derived in the past.
Thanks for pointing out CP.... I allowed for about 3K there.
I agree about Jun 1st date for inventory.
I agree on #3 a said earlier. Also agree on #4.

Don't quite agree on #5. I would say the inventory does confirm once again that portings are insignificant. Given that we are so late in the year and PWMBs did n
t have chance to file ... it also tells us that teh SOFAD will be exclusively used for backlog.
Finally the inventory does tell us that ROWs are not being processed with the speed of light as they did in 2010.


Q/ Spec & Others,

Thanks for posting the Inventory data as of June 2011.


Few quick points noted by me:

1. The data does not include CP and includes Service centers and Field Offices only. It is just inventory data giving the number of cases pending with USCIS, whether qualified or not. It is a USCIS report. Monthly determination of demand data is prepared by DoS and based on which CO and his team prepares cut off dates.

2. Although title says June 2011, it should be taken as 06/01/2011 (1st day of June 2011)

3. I remember one of Q's posts, where he mentioned that 6K was the spillover allocated in June 2011, moving EB2 IC cut off dates to 15 Oct 2006. As per my calculation, it is 8K, from the data.

4. Number of porting cases and who missed PWMB is less than 200 from EB2 India (increase in number of applications) for the applicants between July 2006 and December 2006. This is a really a good news and I was anxious about the number of upgrades and PWMB. If their number were to overwhelm, then it would be difficult to move the cut off dates. Over all, upgrades and PWMB seems to be less than estimated or would not exceed the estimated number of 3000.

5. In the absence of of info such as how many visas issued so far, countries wise and how much is left over for issue from June 2011 to end of this fiscal year 2011, this report does not give me any understanding. It leads us back to our inconclusive predicting game. I would be better off if I can do this kind of predicting game in Las Vegas casino. (Atlantis is also OK, NC is average, Detroit is not good).

6. Based on data provided Spec-o-rama and others, I would continue to hope that there will be further spill over of about 4K to 6K in EB1, 5.5K from EB2 ROW and another 5.8K from EB5. Total spillover available would be in the range of 14K to 18K. EB2 india and china would move to March-April 2007.

Spec agree. So in essence you are saying portings+pwmbs so far are about 3052. I am heading out too in a while. Have a great weekend guys!


Q,

It is a holiday weekend and I don't have much available time to do a proper analysis.

When an Inventory comes out, rather than looking forward from those figures, I prefer to try to calculate what the revised October 1 situation would have to have been, then apply the whole predicted SOFAD to that figure.

A very simplistic calculation for EB2-I.

June Inventory total - 22,536
Approved to date (estimate) - 4,770
Derived October starting figure - 27,306

Actual October starting figure - 24,254 (from Old Inventory)

Underlying change - An addition of 3,052 cases between October 1 and the end of May.

I actually make a more complicated calculation, but that gives an idea.

[natvyas]

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K

[Spectator]

Last post for a while.

If natvyas was trying to post as Breaking News, that would explain it. I took the comment to mean he couldn't post at all and was I using news with a small n. Your explanation makes a great deal of sense.

My initial thought also was that the 3k was possibly indicative of PWMB, porting and LO cases. The number will probably be slightly higher once I have a chance to do a proper analysis, but it sounds in the right range.

A rough calculation says the difference in movement between using the USCIS Inventory versus the Demand data is March 2007 to June 2007, based on the SOFAD figure I am using.

I have to favor the later date, since that is based on the DOS figures. I think we are probably entirely in agreement on the possible range, with the information available to date.

As you point out, the fact that cases have appeared on the USCIS Inventory is not the same as meaning they can or will be approved within the FY!

Have a great one!

[natvyas]

I couldnt post at all till few mins ago when I requested the admin for posting rights......

I picked up the new inventory data information from a thread on IV's website

[qesehmk]

LoL Guru!!

Last post for a while.


Natvyas EB4 last year didn't provide any SOFAD. We don't expect any this year. Inventory is a snapshot. You can't say how many were granted till date simply based on inventory.

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K


I guess that was because you didn't confirm your registration on your registered email. So I manually confirmed it and now it became active. Welcome!

I couldnt post at all till few mins ago when I requested the admin for posting rights......

I picked up the new inventory data information from a thread on IV's website

[gcwait2007]

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K

'History repeats itself' is one of the basis for predicting game. EB4 had not provided any spill over for the past many years.

Further EB4 category was supposed to be abolished in 2009 and extended for few more years. I dont remember who extended it? congress or senate or dos or presidential order? Since 'end' is definitely set on for EB4 in next few years time frame, eligible candidates try to make it as soon as possible. Other wise, they have to join EB3 others category.

[natvyas]

If the available numbers are going to be use for primarily clearing the backlog then does this shed light on the USCIS policy for people beyond Aug 07

[veni001]

Credit to natvyas for the heads up.

The new USCIS Inventory for June 2011 is now available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

Yipee!!

Spec, natvyas,

Great info
Thank you

[anuran]

Can someone hazard a guess as to why there is a reduction in July 2007 numbers in Jan'11 versus June'11 inventory data? Could the 72 cases have become CP cases from AOS? Can someone withdraw I-485? Thanks.

[gcwait2007]

Can someone hazard a guess as to why there is a reduction in July 2007 numbers in Jan'11 versus June'11 inventory data? Could the 72 cases have become CP cases from AOS? Can someone withdraw I-485? Thanks.

Yep, very much yes

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here are my thoughts about the inventory. It does not change things a great deal.
- EB1 inventory is higher than previous ones however note that the 2011 numbers are lower in most months than late 2010. Also the early 2010 numbers are in similar range as early 2011 assuming early 2010 cases would have seen approvals looks like EB1 demand is really down. Also note that most of the EB1 demand is from ROW countries.
- EB2 ROW numbers are quite low from 2011 indicating either the demand itself is less or the cases are seeing speedy approvals. Cases from 2008 to mid 2009 maybe from countries of interest and they normally take longer.
- Here is an attempt to calculate PD porting using the EB3 – India inventory.
I researched the differences a little further to infer how much porting is happening.

EB3 - I total (Jun Inventory) = 57119
EB3- I total (Jan Inventory) = 58440
Nett Reduction = 1321

Now let us determine the component that should be regular approvals. Lets take 01-May-2002 as the benchmark date for this.

EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jun Inv) = 901
EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jan Inv) = 2052
Approvals due to regular cap in the time between the 2 inventories = 2052 - 901 = 1151.

Now if we assume that there has been no local office demand addition to the inventory then porting during this period is 1321 - 1151 = 170.

If we multiply this by 3 since the time span is 4 months its just 510. This would imply that district office cases are still being added to the inventory. We may also infer that PD porting is not that high after all.

[natvyas]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

[veni001]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

natvyas,
I would think so, ~14k spillover in the next three months should set EB2I&C dates t0 01MAY2007 by Sept VB.
If USCIS want to build some inventory, in the mean time, we could very well see some jerky movement.

[gcwait2007]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

I have been reading Spec's threads, analyzing Trackitt data. I hope that his analysis is up-to-date.

EB1 would expect to reach 22K by year end (indicated from the data as of now) , which means there is spill over of 18K expected and out of 18K, 12K already provided in May and June 2011. So available for spill over would be 6K.

EB2 ROW would reach 28500 and expected spill over is 6K.

EB4 None

EB5 would provide about 6K visas, since as many as 2K people convert their conditional card to full fledged GC.

Total would be 18K and I would expect that the cut off date for EB2 India and China to get into April 2007. :cool:

[veni001]

I have been reading Spec's threads, analyzing Trackitt data. I hope that his analysis is up-to-date.

EB1 would expect to reach 22K by year end (indicated from the data as of now) , which means there is spill over of 18K expected and out of 18K, 12K already provided in May and June 2011. So available for spill over would be 6K.

EB2 ROW would reach 28500 and expected spill over is 6K.

EB4 None

EB5 would provide about 6K visas, since as many as 2K people convert their conditional card to full fledged GC.

Total would be 18K and I would expect that the cut off date for EB2 India and China to get into April 2007. :cool:

gcwait2007,
Removal of condition shouldn't count towards quota!

[gcwait2007]

gcwait2007,
Removal of condition shouldn't count towards quota!

OK, in that case, add 1K more :cool:

[leo07]

If it has to reach April 2007, DOS will move the dates to July 1st 2007. They don't want the remaining uncertainty hanging there. They have improved over the last couple of years, only because they have enough pre-adjudicated cases in the system. Not sure if they would want to go back to disco-dance again.

[kd2008]

One thing I haven't been able to reconcile is the large number of pending cases for EB2 ROW on trackitt since Oct 2010 and comparatively small number of cases in the USCIS pending inventory. What gives?

[arnab221]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

[veni001]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

arnab221,
Welcome, Your questions is what would be the PD movement in July 2011 VB? or When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current?

[arnab221]

Hello Veni ,

The question is , When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current , if VB reaches say Feb 2007 in Sept 2011 ?

[donvar]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

As a thumb rule add 4.5 years to your PD. ( This assuming that spillover is same in coming years). However I am no Guru.

[veni001]

Hello Veni ,

The question is , When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current , if VB reaches say Feb 2007 in Sept 2011 ?

arnab221,
Assuming not change in the status-quo, i would stick to the rule of 6 for EB2I PD post July 2007. (chance to apply i485 in 5 years, GC in 6th year from PD date)

[GC2011]

Guys,

Statistics can say what you want them to say. I will try an alternate approach to prediction, which is looking at environmental factors.

Even before the 2011 July bulletin, EB2-I dates have already moved by 5 months. Why did the govt. agency move the dates so early. What is the hurry ? Why didn't they wait till July bulletin ?

Was it that, they knew that the overall usage is low and they would had to move numbers heavily in July - Sept. bulletin. Instead of making a big move in July - Sept., they are trying to stagger it.

I don't have numbers to prove (I guess no one has), but I am pretty covinced that dates will move even more quickly in July-Sept bulletin with 80 -90 % probability of EB2 India date moving to June -July 2007.

[happyboy]

Guys,

My gut feeling they will move many months in July 2011 visa blletion. They have to build inventry to have smooth process in upcoming years as the EB2I/C are the only group going to consume un-used visa number according to the law. They are not going to create any more 2007 Julys that said they will move at least one year by sept bulletion. I will challenge all gurus here.If my predictions are not i will come back in sept and i will say sorry.

[anuran]

Guys,
I will challenge all gurus here.If my predictions are not i will come back in sept and i will say sorry.

There is no need to challenge anyone. You are saying that the chances are 100% for the cutoff dates to move to June'2007. The first page predictions are that there is more than 50% chance that the dates will move to April'07. That predictions was arrived at after giving due consideration to the perm data, demand data, inventory data, trackitt data, etc. In toto the difference between what you say and what is predicted on the first page is only 2 months and about 50% in probability. All the predictions are accommodated here provided they are supported by facts and numbers. Cheers.

[angryclubs]

Q,
Any updates from your source who advised of substantial movement in the June bulletin? That proved correct so is there anything we can know about July?

[suninphx]

arnab221,
Assuming not change in the status-quo, i would stick to the rule of 6 for EB2I PD post July 2007. (chance to apply i485 in 5 years, GC in 6th year from PD date)

Veni - any specific reasons why rule of thumb changes to PD + 6yr after July 2007? At least for years 2008/09 I would think it will be PD + 4.5/ 5 years. Number of PERM filings are supposed to be "low" in those years after all :)

[GK1234]

What would CO do to EB2I/C for July'11 VB?

[khushraho]

I know at least a couple of guys who had left for India for good after the 140 approval. I believe that number would be at least 25% of the pending inventory due to the 2008/09 downturn. Same with people with PD of 2008 & 2009. We can see a big movement in the coming months. I expect end of 2008.

[suninphx]

I know at least a couple of guys who had left for India for good after the 140 approval. I believe that number would be at least 25% of the pending inventory due to the 2008/09 downturn. Same with people with PD of 2008 & 2009. We can see a big movement in the coming months. I expect end of 2008.

These guys would have option to apply under CP?

[vishnu]

very unlikely suninphx. typically if people have gone back to India, it implies they've resigned from their jobs and employers would have likely withdraw the i-140 petitions. so while their priority dates are fixed, they wouldn't have any option to apply for permanent residence anymore unless they re-start the perm/i-140 process.

[qesehmk]

GC2011 / Happyboy

What we predict here is the date upto which the backlog will be cleared this year. I do agree that the date movement could be much further than that!! The only caveat is that the date will bounce back (retrogress) if they move it too further into future.


Guys,

I don't have numbers to prove (I guess no one has), but I am pretty covinced that dates will move even more quickly in July-Sept bulletin with 80 -90 % probability of EB2 India date moving to June -July 2007.


... will move at least one year by sept bulletion. I will challenge all gurus here.If my predictions are not i will come back in sept and i will say sorry.


Q,
Any updates from your source who advised of substantial movement in the June bulletin? That proved correct so is there anything we can know about July?

nothing yet. But will certainly keep updated if I hear something.

[lprseeker]

I happened to come across this thread while looking for EB2 predictions, and really appreciate all the information being shared and put together for all who might be looking for the same.

My PD is 25-01-2008, specified CP in I-140(approved), and recently received an email from NVC. Working with the same employer, initially as a contractor(1-Dec-2004) and then Full time(12-Sep-2006) and then moved to work in India(1-Feb-2010) and now confused as to what to go for CP or AoS, my H1 valid till 15-Aug-2012. They are willing to processes either option based on my preference. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated and thanks in advance!

[qesehmk]

Its your personal choice first of all. AOS means coming back to US. I hope you are aware of that.

So if I green card is very important to you, then you may come back to US after 1 year so that you can file as EB1 and get your GC within 6 months or so.



I happened to come across this thread while looking for EB2 predictions, and really appreciate all the information being shared and put together for all who might be looking for the same.

My PD is 25-01-2008, specified CP in I-140(approved), and recently received an email from NVC. Working with the same employer, initially as a contractor(1-Dec-2004) and then Full time(12-Sep-2006) and then moved to work in India(1-Feb-2010) and now confused as to what to go for CP or AoS, my H1 valid till 15-Aug-2012. They are willing to processes either option based on my preference. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated and thanks in advance!

[soggadu]

All,

Now we have enough confirmation that people with PD in 2008 are also getting NVC emails.... At this juncture I would like to know when does NVC send emails and how soon will they make those dates current? Anybody has any previous historical experience or read any where?? Please let us all know....People started getting these mails from March 2011...

[soggadu]

I happened to come across this thread while looking for EB2 predictions, and really appreciate all the information being shared and put together for all who might be looking for the same.

My PD is 25-01-2008, specified CP in I-140(approved), and recently received an email from NVC. Working with the same employer, initially as a contractor(1-Dec-2004) and then Full time(12-Sep-2006) and then moved to work in India(1-Feb-2010) and now confused as to what to go for CP or AoS, my H1 valid till 15-Aug-2012. They are willing to processes either option based on my preference. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated and thanks in advance!

Dude... I think ur question was which is better CP/AOS... They both have their own adv and dis adv... I suggest you read the articles from murty.com about this.... My personal opinion is to go for CP so that you will get your GC as soon as ur dates become current and not wait till your file gets picked up IO... I also say this because there is a danger of dates retrogressing once moved forward rapidly ... If u do decide for CP pay the fees soon so that your case would be shifted to NVC now itself...just my 2 cents... Please take suggestions from ur lawyer too rather than depending on people from forums to take final decision....

[sunny4gc]

Hi All,

My PD is 12/02/2007.Is there any chance of being current by next bulletin?

[pch053]

For a Dec'07 PD, I think you have to wait until 2012 to be current.

[sunny4gc]

I cud see ppl predicting that dec'07 can be current by Sep'11 in this forum.

Is there a chance of being current this year?

[qesehmk]

The trackitt based SOFAD calculations updated at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-SOFAD-Projections&p=1716#post1716

No significant change. The trackitt trend is holding.

[slowwin]

Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",

I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.

My Situation is this:

I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .

My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, Ihope.
Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?

regards,
SLOWWIN

[whereismygclost]

I cud see ppl predicting that dec'07 can be current by Sep'11 in this forum.

Is there a chance of being current this year?
My PD is early Oct'07 so am in the same boat as you. From my reading on this forum and others, dates may move till May'07 by Sep'2011 bulletin. As per Teddy, in order not to waste visas for 2012 spillover, dates will be moved to early-mid 2008 latest by April'2012 so as to allow time for 485 processing. It could be earlier too ..so I think we should get a chance to file 485 any time between July'2011(best scenario) to April'2012(worst scenario). Gurus please comment.

[soggadu]

The trackitt based SOFAD calculations updated at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-SOFAD-Projections&p=1716#post1716

No significant change. The trackitt trend is holding.

With this information and other readings i believe they have already used up 9K SOFAD until Oct 15 2006... so we have 24K SOFAD still left... and 20500 pre adj cases from Oct 2006 till Aug 2007... So why are we still not confident in saying that we will cross into 2007 end?? PWMB/Porting shouldnt be of much worry for the last quarter as they can't assign...

[sunny4gc]

My PD is early Oct'07 so am in the same boat as you. From my reading on this forum and others, dates may move till May'07 by Sep'2011 bulletin. As per Teddy, in order not to waste visas for 2012 spillover, dates will be moved to early-mid 2008 latest by April'2012 so as to allow time for 485 processing. It could be earlier too ..so I think we should get a chance to file 485 any time between July'2011(best scenario) to April'2012(worst scenario). Gurus please comment.

Thanks whereismygclost for the response.

Lets hope that we all get current in next bulletins.

[qesehmk]

We don't know how much SOFAD is already applied. Rather than making a wrong assumption about something we don't know, its best to look at full year number and then predict.



With this information and other readings i believe they have already used up 9K SOFAD until Oct 15 2006... so we have 24K SOFAD still left... and 20500 pre adj cases from Oct 2006 till Aug 2007... So why are we still not confident in saying that we will cross into 2007 end?? PWMB/Porting shouldnt be of much worry for the last quarter as they can't assign...

[pravara]

The trackitt based SOFAD calculations updated at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-SOFAD-Projections&p=1716#post1716

No significant change. The trackitt trend is holding.

--> The prediction in your link above; is it for the upcoming bulletin or for this processing year? Thanks.

Sorry for the above query: I think the description says that you are looking at linear demand for year, so the date prediction should also be implied for year. Thanks.

Best
-P

[manipur]

As far as I remember there was a gudeline for spill over which restrict USCIS to be under the country limit till Q3.tweak in that guideline predicts that it could be bigger than previous years.I hope it crosses that July/August Mark.

[Spectator]

The trackitt based SOFAD calculations updated at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-SOFAD-Projections&p=1716#post1716

No significant change. The trackitt trend is holding.
Nice work Q.

In the table it says 2011 SOFAD, but if I am reading it correctly, it is actually 2011 SPILLOVER, so the SOFAD figures would actually be 5.6k higher i.e. 37.6k to 41.6k.

As ever, it is still the EB1 performance that holds the key.

May approvals were extremely low compared to March and April. See http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

I am still half expecting another glut of approvals before the end of the year, which will bring the figure down. Of course, that may not happen, which makes the figures in the table entirely reachable.

[qesehmk]

Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).


Nice work Q.

In the table it says 2011 SOFAD, but if I am reading it correctly, it is actually 2011 SPILLOVER, so the SOFAD figures would actually be 5.6k higher i.e. 37.6k to 41.6k.

As ever, it is still the EB1 performance that holds the key.

May approvals were extremely low compared to March and April. See http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

I am still half expecting another glut of approvals before the end of the year, which will bring the figure down. Of course, that may not happen, which makes the figures in the table entirely reachable.

[slowwin]

Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?

Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",

I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.

My Situation is this:

I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .

My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.

Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?

regards,
SLOWWIN



Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).

[qesehmk]

slowwin, yours is a porting case (although a bit special since its NIW). But porting so far is not racing ahead nor PWMBs are roaring out of the gate. You are one of the lucky few who managed to convince your employer to file EB2 in this economic environment. So hold your breath. GC for you is just around the corner.

In short there is no such hidden demand anymore.


Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?

Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",

I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.

My Situation is this:

I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .

My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.

Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?

regards,
SLOWWIN

[Spectator]

Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?

Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",

I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.

My Situation is this:

I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .

My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.

Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?

regards,
SLOWWINslowwin,

Patience is a virtue.

I tend to agree with the interesting analysis here http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/june-2011-i-485-inventory-and-quick.html

Further Porting demand within the dates likely to be Current and approvable is likely to be not more than 1.5k.

In fact, the total Porting demand looks like it will be slightly lower than originally predicted and factored into the calculations already.

[slowwin]

Thanks Q.

My query was based on the assumption that Doctors, Scientists, University Professors etc would go the NIW route(in my anecdotal experience multiple filings for EB1 and EB2 NIW are common).

But apparently not. Thanks for the clarification.

slowwin


slowwin, yours is a porting case (although a bit special since its NIW). But porting so far is not racing ahead nor PWMBs are roaring out of the gate. You are one of the lucky few who managed to convince your employer to file EB2 in this economic environment. So hold your breath. GC for you is just around the corner.

In short there is no such hidden demand anymore.

[bieber]

Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).

Q, if you are considering the IC quota for portings+PWMB then the spillover must be enough to clear the backlog, so why the prediction is not July/Aug2007

[TeddyKoochu]

Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?

Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",

I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.

My Situation is this:

I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .

My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.

Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?

regards,
SLOWWIN

I believe that your case should see a faster approval than PWMB's because your 485 is already filed, so once interfiling is completed it would move to the EB2 queue. All the best, Optimistically in Jul and definitely by Aug bulletin you should be current.

[buzzguy]

My PD is end of July'2008.
Any prediction for when my PD will be current.
Gurus please comment.

[qesehmk]

Regardless of economy, its still a hassle and a "kaching" to take any legal action for the employer on behalf of employee. Thats the reason we don't see many employers withdrawing I-140. There just isn't enough incentive unless the employee has done something so terrible that the manager wants to pay to hurt the employee. I do not think there is any legal obligation on employer to request cancellation of an existing application if the employee leaves in between.


Thanks Q.

My query was based on the assumption that Doctors, Scientists, University Professors etc would go the NIW route(in my anecdotal experience multiple filings for EB1 and EB2 NIW are common).

But apparently not. Thanks for the clarification.

slowwin


Q, if you are considering the IC quota for portings+PWMB then the spillover must be enough to clear the backlog, so why the prediction is not July/Aug2007

Basically the 32-36 spillover is for full year. So if you look at oct 2010 inventory (and add 2-3K CP) then that's how far that spillover can take you. Right? Or am I missing something. Pls let me know.

[bieber]

Basically the 32-36 spillover is for full year. So if you look at oct 2010 inventory (and add 2-3K CP) then that's how far that spillover can take you. Right? Or am I missing something. Pls let me know.
I assumed CP cases are part of inventory and looked at Jan numbers, my mistake

[bieber]

My PD is end of July'2008.
Any prediction for when my PD will be current.
Gurus please comment.
you may get greencard in mar-sep 2013, when you get a chance to file I485 is anybody's guess, pick a random date in between

[qesehmk]

No worries. I have made the same mistake in the past. Don't know why!!

I assumed CP cases are part of inventory and looked at Jan numbers, my mistake

[Monica12]

Thanks guys, for all the calculations and number crunching. It really is very helpful.

Please have a look at this http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/june-2011-i-485-inventory-and-quick.html
He has upped the dates quite significantly based on the June inventory but we haven't done so here. I was wondering what you guys think.
Thanks again!!!

[grnwtg]

you may get greencard in mar-sep 2013, when you get a chance to file I485 is anybody's guess, pick a random date in between

Looking at current scenario, i am not sure about green card but there is very good possibility that you will get EAD by sep'2012 with current trend. If dates move to may'07 to june'07 by sep'11, i do not see more than 50k demand between june'07 and july'08. By God's Grace ( touch wood) if uscis want to more fee and reserve numbers, you and I might get EAD my march'2012 but this is entirely based on our luck and uscis fund gathering with win-win situation for both uscis and applicants :).

And to get green card itself it might be anywhere between june'2012 to sep'13.

[grnwtg]

I stopped reading trackitt after some exhaustive posts but After seeing this neat forums i started reading all the posts from various posters. This is very interesting to see how people have different views with same data, some people here are expecting only feb'07 by sep'11 some are projecting july'08 and some other are projecting dates to become current for a month to accomodate more applicants for next year.
From my point of view, looking at the cp mails to 2008 candidates, there is a decent chance for priority dates to reach June/July'08.

[TeluguBidda]

I stopped reading trackitt after some exhaustive posts but After seeing this neat forums i started reading all the posts from various posters. This is very interesting to see how people have different views with same data, some people here are expecting only feb'07 by sep'11 some are projecting july'08 and some other are projecting dates to become current for a month to accomodate more applicants for next year.
From my point of view, looking at the cp mails to 2008 candidates, there is a decent chance for priority dates to reach June/July'08.

CP mails are sent one year in advance, generally. After doing my own analysis and reading meaningless posts on other websites, I have come to the conclusion that a one-stop for an aspiring GC applicant is this site. Heartfelt thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.

It is nearly impossible that dates will move beyond July 2007, we just have to look at pending #s until that date.

[TeluguBidda]

Q,

Do you have any updates from your respectful contact please, whose predictions came darn close during June bulletin? It would be interesting to know his/her July predictions for EB-2I.

[qesehmk]

I think i will check around mid next week. Hopefully he will talk to CO by then. Will post ASAP.
Q,

Do you have any updates from your respectful contact please, whose predictions came darn close during June bulletin? It would be interesting to know his/her July predictions for EB-2I.

[soggadu]

CP mails are sent one year in advance, generally. After doing my own analysis and reading meaningless posts on other websites, I have come to the conclusion that a one-stop for an aspiring GC applicant is this site. Heartfelt thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.

It is nearly impossible that dates will move beyond July 2007, we just have to look at pending #s until that date.

Bidda,

On what basis are you saying this.... Until now 11k slipover is used out of 33k estimated ... That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k... Let's say even of cis doesn't have anymore slipover to apply for cases > July 07... It still has to move forward to generate cases to work on...

Also cis/dos is not going to work on pwmb and porting cases in the last quarter as they won't have enuf time to finish formalities and assign numbers... People > July 07 hang on tight.... We are going to get. a chance to apply for ead soon... Don't get discouraged..

[grnwtg]

CP mails are sent one year in advance, generally. After doing my own analysis and reading meaningless posts on other websites, I have come to the conclusion that a one-stop for an aspiring GC applicant is this site. Heartfelt thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.

It is nearly impossible that dates will move beyond July 2007, we just have to look at pending #s until that date.

Sorry what i meant was July 2007 not July 2008. But i have a feeling that by 1st quarter of 2012, people who got priority date till May -july 2008 will get a chance to apply for EAD and then dates will retrogress. And if uscis want more application it might even make it current for a month.

Can any one tell if spill over will start in July Bulletin or August.

[qesehmk]

grnwtg this year the spillover already started in Jun. Normally July is when we would see this. So yes, in July we should see more.


Sorry what i meant was July 2007 not July 2008. But i have a feeling that by 1st quarter of 2012, people who got priority date till May -july 2008 will get a chance to apply for EAD and then dates will retrogress. And if uscis want more application it might even make it current for a month.

Can any one tell if spill over will start in July Bulletin or August.

[skpanda]

As clarified by few knowledegable folks here.. Once July 2007 is hit, if DOS want to advance dates drastically, they will have to do it in Q4 of FY 2011. In Q1 of FY 2012 the supply (around 230 visas per month) will be less than demand and hence dates cannot be advanced by months/years.

S



Sorry what i meant was July 2007 not July 2008. But i have a feeling that by 1st quarter of 2012, people who got priority date till May -july 2008 will get a chance to apply for EAD and then dates will retrogress. And if uscis want more application it might even make it current for a month.

Can any one tell if spill over will start in July Bulletin or August.

[TeluguBidda]

Bidda,

On what basis are you saying this.... Until now 11k slipover is used out of 33k estimated ... That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k... Let's say even of cis doesn't have anymore slipover to apply for cases > July 07... It still has to move forward to generate cases to work on...

Also cis/dos is not going to work on pwmb and porting cases in the last quarter as they won't have enuf time to finish formalities and assign numbers... People > July 07 hang on tight.... We are going to get. a chance to apply for ead soon... Don't get discouraged..

You reiterated what I said earlier by quoting, "That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k". I said in my post that dates may not progress beyond July 2007. Both of us were off by 1 month. If you factor in people with FY 2007 priority dates who could not apply during July 2007 fiasco, it will create enough cases for a complete consumption of available visas for this year.

Sorry but I did not want to discourage anyone. We have be cautiously optimistic and more importantly, always realistic.

[natvyas]

The interesting thing here is that the demand is spread across several months. Lets assume there are 22K of Spill over left.

The question is how will they know that at what point the demand is met.

Say in June '11 they move it till Feb 07, and find there is still 12K available....
then in July '11 they move it to May 07 and find there is still 4K available....
Come Sept '11 they wouldnt know how many more to take in to meet the left over supply...


Bear in mind they have to log in the documents and reconcile supply and demand in 1 month and I doubt they are that efficient.

[natvyas]

The interesting thing here is that the demand is spread across several months. Lets assume there are 22K of Spill over left.

The question is how will they know that at what point the demand is met.

Say in June '11 they move it till Feb 07, and find there is still 12K available....
then in July '11 they move it to May 07 and find there is still 4K available....
Come Sept '11 they wouldnt know how many more to take in to meet the left over supply...


Bear in mind they have to log in the documents and reconcile supply and demand in 1 month and I doubt there are that efficient.

After typing the message I realized that they already have cases submitted....so they know the 90% of demand.

[pch053]

Is this the latest I485 pending inventory (incl all service centers + field offices); it says the information is as of June'11:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf
From mid-Oct'06 to Aug'07, there are around 14.5K pending EB2-I cases and 7.3K pending EB2-C cases (considering half of the cases in Oct'06 have PD prior to 15th Oct'06); i.e. nearly 22K pending EB2-I+C applications with PD's after Oct'15 to around Aug'07.

[grnwtg]

As clarified by few knowledegable folks here.. Once July 2007 is hit, if DOS want to advance dates drastically, they will have to do it in Q4 of FY 2011. In Q1 of FY 2012 the supply (around 230 visas per month) will be less than demand and hence dates cannot be advanced by months/years.

S

Yes it might be true that they have to advance the dates by September Bulletin but i am not sure if it is a legal rule that they need to advance date only if they have more visa numbers and less demand.
But looks like majority of here believe that dates will move anywhere between may'2007 to july'2007.

[skpanda]

Yes.. most people are predicting that in best case scenario, SOFAD will be sufficient to reach July 2007. Question is how much farther DOS will move the dates so that they can build the demand for next year's SOFAD. They will have to do it in Sept 2011. If they do not then they will have to do it around April 2012 which will be late and there wont be enough time to process the applications at that time. In that case if SOFAD is more, then either visas will be wasted or utilized for EB3.



Yes it might be true that they have to advance the dates by September Bulletin but i am not sure if it is a legal rule that they need to advance date only if they have more visa numbers and less demand.
But looks like majority of here believe that dates will move anywhere between may'2007 to july'2007.

[zenmaster]

In July 2007, DOS made it current for both EB2 and EB3.
Is it technically possible for DOS to make only EB2 (and not EB3) current for a month or two, to generate the demand ?

[ChampU]

In July 2007, DOS made it current for both EB2 and EB3.
Is it technically possible for DOS to make only EB2 (and not EB3) current for a month or two, to generate the demand ?

I guess you answered the question yourself.. " to generate the demand ".. the demand for EB3 is known, unless the USCIS has preadjudicated all EB3 cases and want to add on fresh cases to work on..

[qesehmk]

Not to hurt anybody's feelings. But the truth is, very few people are filing EB3. Because given 9% unemployment, USCIS DOS and DOL together may not see the need to have additional labor.

Its really the business that needs to say emphatically that this is not just another labor - but this is the kind of labor we desperately need. Otherwise EB3 will continue to be severely backlogged for the foreseeable future.


I guess you answered the question yourself.. " to generate the demand ".. the demand for EB3 is known, unless the USCIS has preadjudicated all EB3 cases and want to add on fresh cases to work on..

[neospeed]

I think we will have dates moved to late 2007. PWMB and porting cases will create some demand for next year. CIS will be busy working on those and then they are going to move the dates to current in july 2012 to generate some demand for next year.

In my opinion the above scenario is pratical one.

The July bullitein is going to answer most of our outstanding questions.

[soggadu]

You reiterated what I said earlier by quoting, "That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k". I said in my post that dates may not progress beyond July 2007. Both of us were off by 1 month. If you factor in people with FY 2007 priority dates who could not apply during July 2007 fiasco, it will create enough cases for a complete consumption of available visas for this year.

Sorry but I did not want to discourage anyone. We have be cautiously optimistic and more importantly, always realistic.

I agree with you regarding 22k remaining backlog... But when you said it is impossible to cross July 07... I tend to disagree... If they don't build up inventory it is going to be bad for them in the sense that they have to send that slipover I 2012 to EB3 and there would huge dis agreement on that keeping in mind that eb2 I/c are highly retrogressed countries and it would show them in bad light.... If they don't build up inventory beginning of fiscal year...
It would be lot of work throughout the year to consume slipover .... My 2 cents... Also they can't approve new cases in a month or two and it would need atleast 5-6 months...so I won't count in new cases in the current slipover....

[neospeed]

I agree with you regarding 22k remaining backlog... But when you said it is impossible to cross July 07... I tend to disagree... If they don't build up inventory it is going to be bad for them in the sense that they have to send that slipover I 2012 to EB3 and there would huge dis agreement on that keeping in mind that eb2 I/c are highly retrogressed countries and it would show them in bad light.... If they don't build up inventory beginning of fiscal year...
It would be lot of work throughout the year to consume slipover .... My 2 cents... Also they can't approve new cases in a month or two and it would need atleast 5-6 months...so I won't count in new cases in the current slipover....
Not sure why they need to start building the inventory at the start of fiscal year. As DOS is becoming more conservative this days, they will atleast wait first quater to ensure they will be able the meet PWMB, porting demand and then i think they will open the gates for future inventory.

[TeluguBidda]

Not sure why they need to start building the inventory at the start of fiscal year. As DOS is becoming more conservative this days, they will atleast wait first quater to ensure they will be able the meet PWMB, porting demand and then i think they will open the gates for future inventory.

Well, Soggaadu does have a point. I-485 processing for new applications can take a minimum of 4 months. Perhaps DOS and USCIS will push dates AFTER (I repeat, AFTER) the end of FY 2011, to accept new applications. If EB-2I reaches around Mar 2007, they may wait for few months before pushing the date beyond July 2007.

[pch053]

Does the I485 pending information for June change EB2-I/C movement in any way? I think the assumption was around 21K - 22K pending EB2-I/C cases in all the previous calculations; so this shouldn't alter things drastically. As of now, there are more than 8K pending EB2-ROW cases with PDs from beginning of 2010; can this cause any slow down to the estimated EB2-I/C forward movement?

[Spectator]

I just want to throw this out there, since it still leaves me with a nagging doubt.

To date, I don't believe DOS have violated any of the laws which the allocation of visas are subject to.

I said in an earlier post that DOS are constrained by the law such that they cannot allocate more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

If we take the EB2 China and India initial allocation together, this means the limit is 5,606 * 81% = 4,541 visas by the end of Q3.

This year, that point appears to have been reached at the end of April. EB2-I had received the full 2.8k and EB2-C at that point had received about 1.7k. That pretty much exactly matches the initial 4.5k available.

However, by announcing in the May 2011 VB that at least 12k extra visas would be available to EB2-IC, the total figure suddenly became 5.6 + 12 = 17.6k and 81% became 14.3k (another 9.8k visas). Coincidence?

That has allowed DOS to continue issuing visas in Q3 without violating the 81% limit for the first 3 quarters and tallies quite nicely with the calculated usage for the forward movement in May and June (the last 2 months of Q3 FY2011).

In fact, it explains why the full 12k could not be allocated in May and June.

That gets me to thinking - if DOS are so concerned with staying within the law, it might limit how far they could advance the dates, if they waited until FY2012 to do so. Perhaps more correctly, how much approvable demand they could generate.

They would initially be constrained by the 27% per quarter (of 5.6k for IC combined) and even when Q3 starts in April 2012, they couldn't be too ambitious about how many visas they say are going to available - in case the situation changes. I don't think DOS can realistically make estimates of other Categories usage until at least 2 quarters have passed.

So, it leaves me with the nagging doubt that if the dates aren't moved in Q4 FY2011, it will be difficult to generate sufficient demand for FY2012, if DOS want to stay within the law, as they have tried to do this year.

Although they could generate some demand starting in Q3, as they have done this year, they would have to wait until Q4 for any push beyond that.

Demand generated in Q3 FY2012 might have a pretty reasonable chance of being approved within FY2012 itself - demand generated in Q4 would be unlikely to be approved. That might not be enough to cover the spare visas available.

Of course, I can see ways around this (but not strictly within the law), but it does seem interesting that DOS have chosen not to break that particular law this year.

Others may disagree and to be honest I haven't made my own mind up on the issue. I thought it was interesting enough to mention.

[soggadu]

Not sure why they need to start building the inventory at the start of fiscal year. As DOS is becoming more conservative this days, they will atleast wait first quater to ensure they will be able the meet PWMB, porting demand and then i think they will open the gates for future inventory.

Dude Neo...

I really feel people are over aggressive on porting numbers... If you look at the inventory of perms, very less number of cases in EB3 after 2006 Oct ... even if all of them want to port... it wont even cross 5K... all wont port... so no worries there... also i believe the porting storm is subsided now... no need to worry about it any more... regarding pwmb, yes there are around 2000 more till Aug 01 2007... so how big an inventory can they build on this basis...

[soggadu]

Well, Soggaadu does have a point. I-485 processing for new applications can take a minimum of 4 months. Perhaps DOS and USCIS will push dates AFTER (I repeat, AFTER) the end of FY 2011, to accept new applications. If EB-2I reaches around Mar 2007, they may wait for few months before pushing the date beyond July 2007.

once upon a time, the predictions were for Mar 07 by end of this FY...latest predictions are for July 15 07 by the end of 2011 fy... I dont understand why we need to lower our projections when

Total demand = 22k and Total worst case scenario spillover is 21K and more....

[soggadu]

I just want to throw this out there, since it still leaves me with a nagging doubt.

To date, I don't believe DOS have violated any of the laws which the allocation of visas are subject to.

I said in an earlier post that DOS are constrained by the law such that they cannot allocate more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

If we take the EB2 China and India initial allocation together, this means the limit is 5,606 * 81% = 4,541 visas by the end of Q3.

This year, that point appears to have been reached at the end of April. EB2-I had received the full 2.8k and EB2-C at that point had received about 1.7k. That pretty much exactly matches the initial 4.5k available.

However, by announcing in the May 2011 VB that at least 12k extra visas would be available to EB2-IC, the total figure suddenly became 5.6 + 12 = 17.6k and 81% became 14.3k (another 9.8k visas). Coincidence?

That has allowed DOS to continue issuing visas in Q3 without violating the 81% limit for the first 3 quarters and tallies quite nicely with the calculated usage for the forward movement in May and June (the last 2 months of Q3 FY2011).

In fact, it explains why the full 12k could not be allocated in May and June.

That gets me to thinking - if DOS are so concerned with staying within the law, it might limit how far they could advance the dates, if they waited until FY2012 to do so. Perhaps more correctly, how much approvable demand they could generate.

They would initially be constrained by the 27% per quarter (of 5.6k for IC combined) and even when Q3 starts in April 2012, they couldn't be too ambitious about how many visas they say are going to available - in case the situation changes. I don't think DOS can realistically make estimates of other Categories usage until at least 2 quarters have passed.

So, it leaves me with the nagging doubt that if the dates aren't moved in Q4 FY2011, it will be difficult to generate sufficient demand for FY2012, if DOS want to stay within the law, as they have tried to do this year.

Although they could generate some demand starting in Q3, as they have done this year, they would have to wait until Q4 for any push beyond that.

Demand generated in Q3 FY2012 might have a pretty reasonable chance of being approved within FY2012 itself - demand generated in Q4 would be unlikely to be approved. That might not be enough to cover the spare visas available.

Of course, I can see ways around this (but not strictly within the law), but it does seem interesting that DOS have chosen not to break that particular law this year.

Others may disagree and to be honest I haven't made my own mind up on the issue. I thought it was interesting enough to mention.

your posts always add value to the scenario being discussed...

[qesehmk]

Spec wonderful thought process as always. Here is a counter argument if you will.....

To my knowledge, visa allocation is governed by law but date movement is at DoS' discretion and they do it in conjunction with USCIS. So DoS can move the dates as they see fit. They can always immediately retrogress by citing heavy demand. But again this retrogression wouldn't be governed by law. What would an artificial date movement result into is approval of applications out of order from PD perspective.


I just want to throw this out there, since it still leaves me with a nagging doubt.

To date, I don't believe DOS have violated any of the laws which the allocation of visas are subject to.

I said in an earlier post that DOS are constrained by the law such that they cannot allocate more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

If we take the EB2 China and India initial allocation together, this means the limit is 5,606 * 81% = 4,541 visas by the end of Q3.

This year, that point appears to have been reached at the end of April. EB2-I had received the full 2.8k and EB2-C at that point had received about 1.7k. That pretty much exactly matches the initial 4.5k available.

However, by announcing in the May 2011 VB that at least 12k extra visas would be available to EB2-IC, the total figure suddenly became 5.6 + 12 = 17.6k and 81% became 14.3k (another 9.8k visas). Coincidence?

That has allowed DOS to continue issuing visas in Q3 without violating the 81% limit for the first 3 quarters and tallies quite nicely with the calculated usage for the forward movement in May and June (the last 2 months of Q3 FY2011).

In fact, it explains why the full 12k could not be allocated in May and June.

That gets me to thinking - if DOS are so concerned with staying within the law, it might limit how far they could advance the dates, if they waited until FY2012 to do so. Perhaps more correctly, how much approvable demand they could generate.

They would initially be constrained by the 27% per quarter (of 5.6k for IC combined) and even when Q3 starts in April 2012, they couldn't be too ambitious about how many visas they say are going to available - in case the situation changes. I don't think DOS can realistically make estimates of other Categories usage until at least 2 quarters have passed.

So, it leaves me with the nagging doubt that if the dates aren't moved in Q4 FY2011, it will be difficult to generate sufficient demand for FY2012, if DOS want to stay within the law, as they have tried to do this year.

Although they could generate some demand starting in Q3, as they have done this year, they would have to wait until Q4 for any push beyond that.

Demand generated in Q3 FY2012 might have a pretty reasonable chance of being approved within FY2012 itself - demand generated in Q4 would be unlikely to be approved. That might not be enough to cover the spare visas available.

Of course, I can see ways around this (but not strictly within the law), but it does seem interesting that DOS have chosen not to break that particular law this year.

Others may disagree and to be honest I haven't made my own mind up on the issue. I thought it was interesting enough to mention.

[veni001]

I just want to throw this out there, since it still leaves me with a nagging doubt.

To date, I don't believe DOS have violated any of the laws which the allocation of visas are subject to.

I said in an earlier post that DOS are constrained by the law such that they cannot allocate more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

If we take the EB2 China and India initial allocation together, this means the limit is 5,606 * 81% = 4,541 visas by the end of Q3.

This year, that point appears to have been reached at the end of April. EB2-I had received the full 2.8k and EB2-C at that point had received about 1.7k. That pretty much exactly matches the initial 4.5k available.

However, by announcing in the May 2011 VB that at least 12k extra visas would be available to EB2-IC, the total figure suddenly became 5.6 + 12 = 17.6k and 81% became 14.3k (another 9.8k visas). Coincidence?

That has allowed DOS to continue issuing visas in Q3 without violating the 81% limit for the first 3 quarters and tallies quite nicely with the calculated usage for the forward movement in May and June (the last 2 months of Q3 FY2011).

In fact, it explains why the full 12k could not be allocated in May and June.

That gets me to thinking - if DOS are so concerned with staying within the law, it might limit how far they could advance the dates, if they waited until FY2012 to do so. Perhaps more correctly, how much approvable demand they could generate.

They would initially be constrained by the 27% per quarter (of 5.6k for IC combined) and even when Q3 starts in April 2012, they couldn't be too ambitious about how many visas they say are going to available - in case the situation changes. I don't think DOS can realistically make estimates of other Categories usage until at least 2 quarters have passed.

So, it leaves me with the nagging doubt that if the dates aren't moved in Q4 FY2011, it will be difficult to generate sufficient demand for FY2012, if DOS want to stay within the law, as they have tried to do this year.

Although they could generate some demand starting in Q3, as they have done this year, they would have to wait until Q4 for any push beyond that.

Demand generated in Q3 FY2012 might have a pretty reasonable chance of being approved within FY2012 itself - demand generated in Q4 would be unlikely to be approved. That might not be enough to cover the spare visas available.

Of course, I can see ways around this (but not strictly within the law), but it does seem interesting that DOS have chosen not to break that particular law this year.

Others may disagree and to be honest I haven't made my own mind up on the issue. I thought it was interesting enough to mention.

Spec,
Very well thought, but i don't think 27% limitation applies to cutoff dates and also DOS may not have any idea on expected demand.

[Spectator]

Spec wonderful thought process as always. Here is a counter argument if you will.....

To my knowledge, visa allocation is governed by law but date movement is at DoS' discretion and they do it in conjunction with USCIS. So DoS can move the dates as they see fit. They can always immediately retrogress by citing heavy demand. But again this retrogression wouldn't be governed by law. What would an artificial date movement result into is approval of applications out of order from PD perspective.
Q, Veni,

I sort of agree with you, which is why I said I can see ways around it and that I am fairly open on the issue.

As far as moving Cut Off Dates, DOS' own document says

The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number.

At the same time, it also says

The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements.

which gives considerable flexibility - but there are limits IMO.

The 27% cannot be totally ignored, but it really only applies to applications that can be approved.

If EB2-IC move into May-July 2007, then PWMB will be enough to use all the initial allocation (for India at least) in the first quarters of FY2012. It could be as high as 7k for IC combined.

That will limit how far DOS can move the Cut Off Dates, since if they have more actual Demand than visas they may issue, they can't move it beyond the date that allows that number to be approved. That would probably only allow a window in Q1 (maybe slightly into Q2), because after that the PWMB demand will probably come on stream.

Hope that makes sense.

[qesehmk]

Spec I think we all are in sync on that one. So the bottomline is that - DoS is not bound legally as per when to move which dates but they are bound legally as per the visa allocation goes. So the movement of dates really becomes a policy question as opposed to a legal constraint.


Q, Veni,

I sort of agree with you, which is why I said I can see ways around it and that I am fairly open on the issue.

As far as moving Cut Off Dates, DOS' own document says


At the same time, it also says


which gives considerable flexibility - but there are limits IMO.

The 27% cannot be totally ignored, but it really only applies to applications that can be approved.

If EB2-IC move into May-July 2007, then PWMB will be enough to use all the initial allocation (for India at least) in the first quarters of FY2012. It could be as high as 7k for IC combined.

That will limit how far DOS can move the Cut Off Dates, since if they have more actual Demand than visas they may issue, they can't move it beyond the date that allows that number to be approved. That would probably only allow a window in Q1 (maybe slightly into Q2), because after that the PWMB demand will probably come on stream.

Hope that makes sense.

[mpurna77]

I have a quick question may be its stupid.

If in forums we can come up with demand data by using PERM and I-140s. Then why all people here expect DOS to open gates to get DEMAND data.

Can't they get with I-140 numbers anywayz they also need estimate to move cutoff date?

[qesehmk]

The 140 demand gets translated into 485 demand ONLY IF dates are current for those 140s.
I have a quick question may be its stupid.

If in forums we can come up with demand data by using PERM and I-140s. Then why all people here expect DOS to open gates to get DEMAND data.

Can't they get with I-140 numbers anywayz they also need estimate to move cutoff date?

[mpurna77]

The 140 demand gets translated into 485 demand ONLY IF dates are current for those 140s.

I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.

[gcwait2007]

If EB2-IC move into May-July 2007, then PWMB will be enough to use all the initial allocation (for India at least) in the first quarters of FY2012. It could be as high as 7k for IC combined.

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

[lprseeker]

I wish they were that smart!
With the kind of infrastructure they have access to, at their disposal, they should have made all immigration related processing a breeze, by keeping track of details and being in sync. But I think we are not here to talk about what they can do, instead are doing what they are supposed to do, and make those details more transparent.

[Spectator]

I have a quick question may be its stupid.

If in forums we can come up with demand data by using PERM and I-140s. Then why all people here expect DOS to open gates to get DEMAND data.

Can't they get with I-140 numbers anywayz they also need estimate to move cutoff date?

Not a stupid question at all - in fact this is information that DOS want (and need).

DOS, through the NVC, know with fair precision how many I-140 cases are pending for Consular Processing, by Category, PD, Country of Chargeability and the number of Dependants at the time the I-140 was submitted.

It has long been rumoured that DOS have been pressing USCIS for a similar breakdown of approved I-140 applications at the Service Centers (very similar to the I-485 Inventory Report).

As you point out, with this information, DOS would have the ability predict future demand in a fairly precise manner and to move the Cut Off Dates accordingly.

I think the request was made precisely to handle the end of the known backlog, but there is no evidence that USCIS have provided this information to DOS yet.

[qesehmk]

DoS doesn't know accurately the 140 pipeline. But more importantly what DoS calls demand is NOT a 1:1 relation of approved 140 to 485. e.g. 485 has dependents, and also that 485 needs to be adjudicated before USCIS can make a demand for a visa for that 485.

Theoretically yes everybody can do what we are doing here .. trying to predict. But as far as DoS' operations go ... they have certain rules and framework that they follow. That's all there is to it. Sometimes they will breka their own rules if not bend it to achieve certain policy objectives. So I really feel its futile to predict how far beyond will they move dates. What we can say with more confidence is how far will tehy have to move in order to consume the visas available this year.

That dates is about mar-apr 2007 for EB2.


I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.

[veni001]

I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.

mpurna77,
I don't think DOS has ever done this before, but they can request i140 data from DOS. I don't think DOS is smart enough to use this approach!

[Spectator]

mpurna77,
I don't think DOS has ever done this before, but they can request i140 data from DOS. I don't think DOS is smart enough to use this approach!

I think you underestimate the Visa Office in DOS!

They have some very smart people, who given the data available to them, do a remarkably good job.

[veni001]

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.

[veni001]

I think you underestimate the Visa Office in DOS!
They have some very smart people, who given the data available to them, do a remarkably good job.
Spec,
Let's hope we can see them in action moving forward. :)

[Spectator]

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.


gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.

I think it is possibly true that the 7k figure might be too high - it's a fair point.

The 7k was originally calculated based on the actual split of EB2:EB3 I-485s in the Inventory, based on a known number of PERM certifications.

With the release of subsequent Inventories, I think it is becoming clearer that quite a large number of EB3 applications are actually still at LO awaiting interview. It doesn't affect China as much as India.

The 7k is therefore an absolutely upper bound and is probably too high, as the Inventory probably understates the true number of EB3 I-485 cases.

Even if we said that only 50% of the EB3-IC cases are represented on the Inventory, then the figure only reduces from 7k to 5.5k for PWMB with Jan-Jul 2007 PD and the numbers waiting to file with Aug-Dec 2007 PD becomes 11.7k.

These are still considerable figures.

Also, as has been discussed, the approval time may have depended on which Center was handling the case. If EB2 PERMs were suffering greater delays, that would actually increase the % that missed the boat.

[veni001]

I think it is possibly true that the 7k figure might be too high - it's a fair point.

The 7k was originally calculated based on the actual split of EB2:EB3 I-485s in the Inventory, based on a known number of PERM certifications.

With the release of subsequent Inventories, I think it is becoming clearer that quite a large number of EB3 applications are actually still at LO awaiting interview. It doesn't affect China as much as India.

The 7k is therefore an absolutely upper bound and is probably too high, as the Inventory probably understates the true number of EB3 I-485 cases.

Even if we said that only 50% of the EB3-IC cases are represented on the Inventory, then the figure only reduces from 7k to 5.5k for PWMB with Jan-Jul 2007 PD and the numbers waiting to file with Aug-Dec 2007 PD becomes 11.7k.

These are still considerable figures.

Also, as has been discussed, the approval time may have depended on which Center was handling the case. If EB2 PERMs were suffering greater delays, that would actually increase the % that missed the boat.

Spec,
I agree, that's a very good point.

[GCDespo]

gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.


I am one of those unfortunate people who could not apply for I-485. My PD is in May 2007 and my labour was approved in November. How can I check which processing center handled my case?

I would also like to thank Q,Teddy,Spec,Veni and others for all of thier inputs.This forum has been a ray of light in the dark for the people like me who do not have a clue about what is happening and what to expect.

[gaurav811]

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

[qesehmk]

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?




I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

[pravara]

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

--> I think one of the ways to keep this tradition going is to post a "Guide book" to construct the metrics. Define the sources; limit them to 4-5. Then provide the Excel Macros to the forum members and let someone else step in your shoes.

Fishing tools is the answer :)

[soggadu]

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

I would say just like in corporate world, look for an able junior ( PD in 2008/2009 ) and keep him/her in loop and you be the watch dog...

On the other hand, with you guys doing these kind of calculations... you cant be away from this forum for long time... GC doesnt change the daily habits, one of them is visiting this forum...

[gcwait2007]

I hope that the following would be monthly demand data for July 2011 for EB2 category:

Prior to China India ROW GT
1/1/2007 2000 5000 0 7000
1/1/2008 7725 14800 0 22525
1/1/2011 7800 15000 200 23000

I am expecting that the monthly demand data for July 2011 should be published by next week, which should be about the same figures, as mentioned above.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am one of those unfortunate people who could not apply for I-485. My PD is in May 2007 and my labour was approved in November. How can I check which processing center handled my case?

I would also like to thank Q,Teddy,Spec,Veni and others for all of thier inputs.This forum has been a ray of light in the dark for the people like me who do not have a clue about what is happening and what to expect.

Thanks a lot for your kind words, I can give you company my PD is in late Jul 2007 and I also missed the golden gate.


PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

This is a very interesting piece of information. Leo provided another statistic that the perms from Chicago were being approved in 2-3 days while Atlanta was taking 3 months.


I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

Thanks for your kind words. This forum really is endowed with some really great contributors Iam just one of them. You are correct in saying that once someone gets GC the involvement may reduce, Iam still far from GC with a late Jul PD and to make matters worse a PWMB as well so definitely I will be there and active for a while. I also started off as a reader on most immigration forums in Sep 2009 watching VB after VB, thanks to QESEHMK for starting EB2 - Eb3 Predictions rather calculations that gave everyone hope that yes something will happen. Also this forum is very strong to be enriched with so many people. We all know a few things but together we may know many if not most of the things. With this said I believe I will be on the forums even after getting GC but for now that day is still realistically far, this is now more of a magnetic passion than anything else.

[qesehmk]

So here are a few steps that we have already taken.
1. We have created FACTS and DATA section. Which unfortunately doesn't have many hits!!! That's teh raw data anybody would look at to come up with any conculsion.
2. The forum is quite open in terms of what somebody can mention here and name teh source.
3. There is no secret sauce really. The beauty and strength of predictions is in collective thinking and differences of opinion. Its funny when we all look at the same data but arrive at different conclusion. And mind you its not bad. That's the best way to have a prediction.

Having said that, Q&A section, if I am not wrong, lists all the sources. If not then we will create such a question. We will also create a general method to predict.



--> I think one of the ways to keep this tradition going is to post a "Guide book" to construct the metrics. Define the sources; limit them to 4-5. Then provide the Excel Macros to the forum members and let someone else step in your shoes.

Fishing tools is the answer :)


I would say just like in corporate world, look for an able junior ( PD in 2008/2009 ) and keep him/her in loop and you be the watch dog...

On the other hand, with you guys doing these kind of calculations... you cant be away from this forum for long time... GC doesnt change the daily habits, one of them is visiting this forum...

soggadu, from administrative purposes ... a few people are already playing that role. As far as knowledge goes, that also you can see signficant leadership with other people. Teddy has great sources, Spec has great analysis/perspective/articulation, and veni is a terrific numbers cruncher.

So all in all, i think we are in decent shape even if I am hit by the GC bus!

[Spectator]

Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

[qesehmk]

All .... now we have added facebook connectivity - which is an optional feature to use. Use it at your own comfort. At the least it allows you to say whether you like a page or not.

Spec .... appreciate your lead. Please feel free to create such a list of sources under FACTS and DATA. I checked FAQs .... its not there.


Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

[soggadu]

So here are a few steps that we have already taken.
1. We have created FACTS and DATA section. Which unfortunately doesn't have many hits!!! That's teh raw data anybody would look at to come up with any conculsion.
2. The forum is quite open in terms of what somebody can mention here and name teh source.
3. There is no secret sauce really. The beauty and strength of predictions is in collective thinking and differences of opinion. Its funny when we all look at the same data but arrive at different conclusion. And mind you its not bad. That's the best way to have a prediction.

Having said that, Q&A section, if I am not wrong, lists all the sources. If not then we will create such a question. We will also create a general method to predict.





soggadu, from administrative purposes ... a few people are already playing that role. As far as knowledge goes, that also you can see signficant leadership with other people. Teddy has great sources, Spec has great analysis/perspective/articulation, and veni is a terrific numbers cruncher.

So all in all, i think we are in decent shape even if I am hit by the GC bus!

That's good to hear... I am not sure what their pd's are... Hopefully the farther away from 2007 the better.... But no one can match these guys analysis style and thinking...

[GC-Utopic]

learned a lot from this forum, appreciate all the contributors esp Q,Spec,Teddy and veni.
I am kinda GC guru now among my friends, thanks to this site, been referring all of them here.
Anyways v know about Q, teddy PD's, wondering when is spec's? (if u dont mind sharing), eventhough u clarified that u will be here regardless, just curious about how long it took u to get this command over the GC proceedings,,,,

[admin]

GCU welcome to forum. Appreciate your kind words and the desire to spread this to friends.

While spec may answer your question about PD, it would be useful to learn the history behind why this site came up. I started this as a thread on IV as many of you know. I found out that there were many many knowledgeable people who started contributing what they knew. The collective effort built this thread to 3.5M views in 9 months.

Now we are here and I see the same thing, there are lots of people contributing. They have the right attitude, they are open they respect each other. I think that's the secret to building viewership - collective open and respectful environment. I don't think any one person has intelligence that is far beyond than other people. Its not about intelligence.

Now although I spend my time here, Teddy continues to run the IV thread and I am sure he is doing a great job there. So in essence, all I want to say is don't get worried about whose PD is when and whether this will stop. I guarantee you there will be some people who will pick up the traits and culture from here and either stay here or go somewhere and try to help others. I for one am not obsessed with the fact that people MUST only visit www.qesehmk.org (http://www.qesehmk.org) If there are other sources .... by all means ... visit them and enlighten yourself. The objective is to bring clarity to GC process. So whichever way it helps you ... works for us!


learned a lot from this forum, appreciate all the contributors esp Q,Spec,Teddy and veni.
I am kinda GC guru now among my friends, thanks to this site, been referring all of them here.
Anyways v know about Q, teddy PD's, wondering when is spec's? (if u dont mind sharing), eventhough u clarified that u will be here regardless, just curious about how long it took u to get this command over the GC proceedings,,,,

[veni001]

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?


Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?


Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

Sorry folks,I am on travel this week with limited access to internet.

Irrespective of GC i will be contributing, what i can, with my limited knowledge. So don't worry i am not going anywhere.

[soggadu]

lets get back to what we are good at....

So we have around 12K( Including dependents) cases which are not accounted for in the current inventory from Jan 2007 till Dec 31 2007 right... So... what are the chances that dates can move past Aug 01 2007 in this scenario before the end of this FY?


Also, Spec/anyone can you please post those charts indicating EB2 approvals so far last month and this month? i would like to see the numbers...

[Spectator]

lets get back to what we are good at....

So we have around 12K( Including dependents) cases which are not accounted for in the current inventory from Jan 2007 till Dec 31 2007 right... So... what are the chances that dates can move past Aug 01 2007 in this scenario before the end of this FY?


Also, Spec/anyone can you please post those charts indicating EB2 approvals so far last month and this month? i would like to see the numbers...
They are always available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 in the FACTS & DATA section.

I try to update them on at least a daily basis, but since they are edits, they won't show up as updated. You have to look.

EB2-ROW at the end of May (with a few stragglers probably yet to appear) has reached this stage:

EB2-ROW --------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ---------- 36 ----- 58 ---- 361 ---- 362 -- 100.28% --- 16,406 --- 116.03% --- 120.66%

EB2-INDIA

EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 158 ---- 262 ---- 350 -- 133.59% ---- 5,110 --- 187.17% --- 216.43% Increase in May of 2,216 visas over April

If you mean the actual chart, I posted previously, I think the forum will get messy if I keep posting those. I might consider adding it to the thread above, but it means uploading files on a regular basis, something I would rather avoid.

As a one off, here is the daily breakdown of EB2-I approvals in May (to date) :

01-May -- 0
02-May - 14
03-May - 23
04-May - 19
05-May - 14
06-May -- 2
07-May -- 0
08-May -- 0
09-May - 14
10-May -- 7
11-May -- 9
12-May -- 7
13-May -- 8
14-May -- 4
15-May -- 2
16-May -- 2
17-May -- 3
18-May -- 3
19-May -- 2
20-May -- 2
21-May -- 0
22-May -- 0
23-May -- 2
24-May -- 2
25-May -- 0
26-May -- 6
27-May -- 6
28-May -- 0
29-May -- 0
30-May -- 2
31-May -- 5

Total - 158

[Spectator]

http://icert.doleta.gov/#fragment-2

PERM Processing Times (as of 05/31/2011)

Analyst Reviews - April 2011
Audits - July/August 2010
Appeals - October 2008 (Now renamed Reconsideration Requests to the CO)
Gov't Error - Current

The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

[qesehmk]

Spec, how did you arrive at 4.5K actual approvals for EB2IC YTD. IF you used some factor then what do you think is the margin of error?



EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 149 ---- 262 ---- 340 -- 129.77% ---- 4,990 --- 181.82% --- 209.29%


The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

I agree 100%. In fact if you notice my posts I have NEVER ever criticized these agencies for their inefficiencies. The fact is they are very efficient and have become even more so. The problem has always been with their interpretation of laws and the manner of execution that always has seemed to hurt EB IC disproporationately.

[Spectator]

Spec, how did you arrive at 4.5K actual approvals for EB2IC YTD. IF you used some factor then what do you think is the margin of error?

I am using the Trackitt % from last year. I adjusted EB2-I to account for CO's statement that the limit was reached at the end of April, but I was within a few visa numbers anyway.

The EB2-I number is pretty accurate I think. China isn't very well represented, so the error margin is wider for them.

PS I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).

[neospeed]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1

can we just predict from the I-140 approvals,instead of crunching the perm data etc. If i add up the data of I-140 approvals from oct 2010 thru march 2011, total approvals are around 72638

Multiply this number by some ratio which represents eb1 and eb-row demand, may be we can get estimated spillover going forward. what do u guys think, do you guys see any flaws using this approach.

[soggadu]

They are always available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 in the FACTS & DATA section.

I try to update them on at least a daily basis, but since they are edits, they won't show up as updated. You have to look.

EB2-ROW at the end of May (with a few stragglers probably yet to appear) has reached this stage:

EB2-ROW --------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ---------- 36 ----- 55 ---- 361 ---- 359 --- 99.45% --- 16,270 --- 115.06% --- 119.42%

EB2-INDIA

EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 151 ---- 262 ---- 342 -- 130.53% ---- 5,019 --- 182.89% --- 210.71% Increase in May of 2,216 visas over April

If you mean the actual chart, I posted previously, I think the forum will get messy if I keep posting those. I might consider adding it to the thread above, but it means uploading files on a regular basis, something I would rather avoid.

As a one off, here is the daily breakdown of EB2-I approvals in May (to date) :

01-May -- 0
02-May - 14
03-May - 23
04-May - 19
05-May - 14
06-May -- 2
07-May -- 0
08-May -- 0
09-May - 14
10-May -- 7
11-May -- 9
12-May -- 7
13-May -- 8
14-May -- 4
15-May -- 1
16-May -- 1
17-May -- 3
18-May -- 3
19-May -- 2
20-May -- 2
21-May -- 0
22-May -- 0
23-May -- 2
24-May -- 2
25-May -- 0
26-May -- 6
27-May -- 4
28-May -- 0
29-May -- 0
30-May -- 1
31-May -- 3

Total - 151

wow dude...you are awesome... i guess all we have to do is ask you questions...you already have the calculations done on so many things...

On other note, i was wondering why we are not projecting EB1 spillover to > 20K. I see only half as many EB1 approving this year in comparision... also for EB2 ROW M P, i see the trend very similar or little more than last year... here too we are estimating less numbers...

I believe we will have atleast 8K more from EB1, 8K from ROW and 10K from EB4/5... positively looking forward for 26K (atleast 24K) more excluding 12K previously from EB1 and 5800 combined for EB2 I/C regular quota... any comments guys?

[gcwait2007]

On other note, i was wondering why we are not projecting EB1 spillover to > 20K. I see only half as many EB1 approving this year in comparision... also for EB2 ROW M P, i see the trend very similar or little more than last year... here too we are estimating less numbers...

I believe we will have atleast 8K more from EB1, 8K from ROW and 10K from EB4/5... positively looking forward for 26K (atleast 24K) more excluding 12K previously from EB1 and 5800 combined for EB2 I/C regular quota... any comments guys?

EB1 spillover >20K? ;) :D:o Too much of expectation will lead to disappointment.

Q has observed rightly that USCIS and DoS have the capability to do whatever they want to do. This time, USCIS and DoS seem to be kind to India based EB category applicants and seem to be determined to clear major portion of the backlog. Thanks to USCIS and DoS for moving the EB2 IC dates.

Let us expect reasonably and avoid disappointment later. I am a firm believer of destiny and in my belief, one gets GC when he is destined to get GC.

[veni001]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1

can we just predict from the I-140 approvals,instead of crunching the perm data etc. If i add up the data of I-140 approvals from oct 2010 thru march 2011, total approvals are around 72638

Multiply this number by some ratio which represents eb1 and eb-row demand, may be we can get estimated spillover going forward. what do u guys think, do you guys see any flaws using this approach.

neospeed,
Please check i140 Data&Calculations link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI)

[soggadu]

EB1 spillover >20K? ;) :D:o Too much of expectation will lead to disappointment.

Q has observed rightly that USCIS and DoS have the capability to do whatever they want to do. This time, USCIS and DoS seem to be kind to India based EB category applicants and seem to be determined to clear major portion of the backlog. Thanks to USCIS and DoS for moving the EB2 IC dates.

Let us expect reasonably and avoid disappointment later. I am a firm believer of destiny and in my belief, one gets GC when he is destined to get GC.

I too believe in that... But as Q says an informed mind calm the nerves... Is there a specific reason or calculation which would prevent 20k from EB1? Just want to know if I am missing something here...

[neospeed]

neospeed,
Please check i140 Data&Calculations link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI)

Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.

[qesehmk]

There was about 7.5K unprocessed EB1 Q from last year. You need to subtract that from your number.

Secondly for EB1 the 140:485 ratio could be slightly less than 2. So overall 13-18K is possible. I think 18K and above would be pushing it a bit too much.


Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.

[veni001]

Thanks for the link. From the above link

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 42,096 - 35,204 = 6,892

This can be converted to 6,892 * 2 (dependents) = 13784 and i think we need add for one more quarter which comes around 20,000 ( approx). And i don't think cis will be able to process the last quater applications ( i-140 + I-485). So we should have at least 20k spillover from eb1. what do you guys think?.


There was about 7.5K unprocessed EB1 Q from last year. You need to subtract that from your number.

Secondly for EB1 the 140:485 ratio could be slightly less than 2. So overall 13-18K is possible. I think 18K and above would be pushing it a bit too much.

neospeed,
As Q mentioned you need to account for ~7.5k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2010 to this demand. EB1-140 to 485 ratio (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Book-of-Statistics%29) is averaging about 1:1.43 and also we need to account denial/rejections (~20%?)

Which means
EB1 demand = (6,892*1.5)*0.8*2.43 +7.5k = 27.7k which gives 12.3k spillover

also we have seen EB1 pending inventory went up by ~2.5k from Oct 2010 to June 2011, assuming this will continue then we are talking about 15k spillover from EB1 for full year!

[veni001]

http://icert.doleta.gov/#fragment-2

PERM Processing Times (as of 05/31/2011)

Analyst Reviews - April 2011
Audits - July/August 2010
Appeals - October 2008 (Now renamed Reconsideration Requests to the CO)
Gov't Error - Current

The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

Spec,
Which is good news. FY2011Q1&Q2 PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) alone shows that DOL cleared about 28k prior years(2005-2010) PERM cases.

[veni001]

What does I485 % approval means from this Processing Statistics Data Sheet (http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html)

[qesehmk]

veni, i think the author means %approved (assuming 100% signifies the application receipts).

Do you think the author is looking at hte publicly availably data on USCIS dashboard. but that only goes back 2.3 years max. Wonder how come he has gotten data as far back as 2001!


What does I485 % approval means from this Processing Statistics Data Sheet (http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html)

[veni001]

veni, i think the author means %approved (assuming 100% signifies the application receipts).

Do you think the author is looking at the publicly available data on USCIS dashboard. but that only goes back 2.3 years max. Wonder how come he has gotten data as far back as 2001!

Q,
That's what i was wondering about when i came across this post (updated 06/05/11), and not able to access the forum post for details!

Also I485 approval % for Nebraska and Texas is averaging about 81% & 64% or collectively about 73%(2002-2010), i believe majority of I485's come from EB only?

[kd2008]

Do you think the author is looking at the publicly available data on USCIS dashboard.

I think the way they are aggregating data is brute force. Looking up case status of each case number. You know the first three letters are WAC, SRC, LIN or EAC, the next two numbers are the year - 11 for FY 2011 etc. Total number is 3 alphabets+ 2 digits of the year + 8 more digits.

So I think they went brute force querying every possible case in the system.

This is just my guess.

I remember a dude on Chinese forum had written a script that will query the system. He collected the output and scanned it for keywords like I-485, I-140, received, approved, mailed etc and built statistics.

I don't know if you guys want to go that route and overwhelm USCIS server. :p

PS: I guess they have already built that script. Check out http://www.immigrationwatch.com/immi_predict_form.jsp

[veni001]

I think the way they are aggregating data is brute force. Looking up case status of each case number. You know the first three letters are WAC, SRC, LIN or EAC, the next two numbers are the year - 11 for FY 2011 etc. Total number is 3 alphabets+ 2 digits of the year + 8 more digits.

So I think they went brute force querying every possible case in the system.

This is just my guess.

I remember a dude on Chinese forum had written a script that will query the system. He collected the output and scanned it for keywords like I-485, I-140, received, approved, mailed etc and built statistics.

I don't know if you guys want to go that route and overwhelm USCIS server. :p

PS: I guess they have already built that script. Check out http://www.immigrationwatch.com/immi_predict_form.jsp

That would be really great!

[kd2008]

That would be really great!

Veni, remember that their approval percentage absolutely misleading.

I think this is how they calculate it. Say you have 100 cases dated 2011. Of that 64 have status as received, 30 as approved, 3 as rfe and 3 as denied. Then they calculated approval percentage as 30%.

[veni001]

Veni, remember that their approval percentage absolutely misleading.

I think this is how they calculate it. Say you have 100 cases dated 2011. Of that 64 have status as received, 30 as approved, 3 as rfe and 3 as denied. Then they calculated approval percentage as 30%.

kd2008,
If that is true then we can not rely on this data(% approvals). But, looking at Nebraska data, considering higher EB1 denial/rejections, looks acceptable?

[kd2008]

kd2008,
If that is true then we can not rely on this data(% approvals). But, looking at Nebraska data, considering higher EB1 denial/rejections, looks acceptable?

No, its not. The numbers on this page http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html are actually links. If you click on them, you will see more detailed percentages like the one I talked about.

Have a look at http://www.immigrationwatch.com/router.jsp?action=list_stat&table_name=IMMI_PS_LINI485&year=2010 This link shows they have numbers till June only. So it raise more questions.

[veni001]

No, its not. The numbers on this page http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html are actually links. If you click on them, you will see more detailed percentages like the one I talked about.

Have a look at http://www.immigrationwatch.com/router.jsp?action=list_stat&table_name=IMMI_PS_LINI485&year=2010 This link shows they have numbers till June only. So it raise more questions.

kd2008,
Thanks, forum links are working now!

[bieber]

a person I know, with PD oct10 2006, received approval today

looks like, CIS can approve all the backlog in 1-2 months if there are enough visa numbers

[GCDespo]

That is interesting. I would also like to bring this to your attention that 2 of my friends who have PDs in November 2006 and December 2006 got thier I-485 approvals last year when thier PDs are not current. They did not report it as they were happy to get it earlier. Is this possible and do we have such anomolies figured in our calculations.


"My Mistake please ignore. If they are already processed they will not show up in the inventory anymore"

[qesehmk]

GCDespo, Thanks. I do believe such analmolies exist and are rare. They do not figure in our calculations but consider this ... them getting means somebody else not getting it since teh visa number is limited. So the overall date projection of backlog clearance still holds.


That is interesting. I would also like to bring this to your attention that 2 of my friends who have PDs in November 2006 and December 2006 got thier I-485 approvals last year when thier PDs are not current. They did not report it as they were happy to get it earlier. Is this possible and do we have such anomolies figured in our calculations.


"My Mistake please ignore. If they are already processed they will not show up in the inventory anymore"

[TeluguBidda]

a person I know, with PD oct10 2006, received approval today

looks like, CIS can approve all the backlog in 1-2 months if there are enough visa numbers

Perhaps you meant, all "pre-adjudicated" backlog. If the case has not been pre-adjudicated, it takes about 3 months.

[TeluguBidda]

GCDespo, Thanks. I do believe such analmolies exist and are rare. They do not figure in our calculations but consider this ... them getting means somebody else not getting it since teh visa number is limited. So the overall date projection of backlog clearance still holds.

Q,

Also, these anamolies are nearly negligible in number. There are also arguments such as cross-chargeability, etc., which lead to these genuine approvals. Nevertheles, anamolies such as approvals outside of current priority date is perhaps less than 0.001%

[gcwait2007]

Q,
That's what i was wondering about when i came across this post (updated 06/05/11), and not able to access the forum post for details!

Also I485 approval % for Nebraska and Texas is averaging about 81% & 64% or collectively about 73%(2002-2010), i believe majority of I485's come from EB only?


EB I-485s are processed in Nebraska Service Center and Texas Service Center only, since 2008. Earlier to that they were also processed in California and Vermont.

So if one wants to analyze EB I-485 data, then he/ she needs to analyze NSC and TSC data only.