EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[parsvnath]

Can someone answer why USCIS moved the dates in May bulletin and not in July, if the intent is NOT to move the dates past July 2007. I think they want to keep all options open on the table including moving it past July 2007. If prediction is Apr 2007 or June 07 or even Dec 06, they could have waited till July and do the same thing they did last year.

[veni001]

Can someone answer why USCIS moved the dates in May bulletin and not in July, if the intent is NOT to move the dates past July 2007. I think they want to keep all options open on the table including moving it past July 2007. If prediction is Apr 2007 or June 07 or even Dec 06, they could have waited till July and do the same thing they did last year.

parsvnath,
The only reason i can count on is "CO" statement of 12k unused VISAs from EB1 for first two quarters of FY2011. This is the first time since FY 2007 that EB1 demand is less than its annual quota!

[Spectator]

Noticed that FY2010 EB2 should be 2.06, so the corrected table becomes:

-EB1 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 15,070 - 10,440 --- 11,450 --- 36,960 -- 2.45
2007 --- 10,967 -- 7,836 ---- 7,894 --- 26,697 -- 2.43
2008 --- 15,184 - 11,514 ---- 9,980 --- 36,698 -- 2.42
2009 --- 16,806 - 12,685 --- 11,433 --- 40,924 -- 2.44
2010 --- 17,117 - 12,941 --- 10,997 --- 41,055 -- 2.40
Avg. --- 75,114 - 55,416 --- 51,754 -- 182,314 -- 2.43

-EB2 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 10,604 --- 7,204 --- 4,103 --- 21,911 -- 2.07
2007 --- 22,303 -- 13,955 --- 7,802 --- 44,060 -- 1.98
2008 --- 34,535 -- 23,686 -- 11,824 --- 70,046 -- 2.03
2009 --- 22,098 -- 15,884 --- 7,570 --- 45,552 -- 2.06
2010 --- 26,131 -- 19,723 --- 8,092 --- 53,946 -- 2.06
Avg. -- 115,671 -- 80,452 -- 39,392 -- 235,515 -- 2.04

-EB3 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 40,929 -- 23,606 --- 25,573 --- 89,908 -- 2.21
2007 --- 36,539 -- 24,336 --- 23,336 --- 84,814 -- 2.32
2008 --- 20,584 -- 14,208 --- 14,208 --- 48,887 -- 2.38
2009 --- 18,359 -- 11,327 --- 10,968 --- 40,654 -- 2.21
2010 --- 16,714 -- 12,621 --- 10,340 --- 39,675 -- 2.37
Avg. -- 132,925 -- 86,098 --- 84,915 -- 303,938 -- 2.29

[suninphx]

Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

suninphx,
Please check the PERM data under FACTS AND DATA section.

[veni001]

Noticed that FY2010 EB2 should be 2.06, so the corrected table becomes:


Spec,
Thank you. You are correct, I have also corrected table in my post above.
Here is the breakdown of EB1 primary into EB1A,EB1B and EB1C. As we can see EB1C is averaging about 55% of EB1

-Year --EB1A Primary -- EB1B Primary -- EB1C Primary - EB1(All)Spouse -EB1(all)Children - Total --- Ratio
2006 ---3,339(22.2%) ---2,951(19.6%) ---8,780(58.3%) ------10,440 -------11,450 ---------36,960 ---- 2.45
2007 ---2,243(20.5%) ---2,262(20.6%) ---6,463(58.9%) -------7,836 --------7,894 ---------26,697 ---- 2.43
2008 ---3,261(21.5%) ---4,274(28.1%) ---7,649(50.4%) ------11,514 --------9,980 ---------36,698 ---- 2.42
2009 ---3,442(20.5%) ---3,432(20.4%) ---9,932(59.1%) ------12,685 -------11,433 ---------40,924 ---- 2.44
2010 ---4,309(25.2%) ---3,990(23.3%) ---8,818(51.5%) ------12,941 -------10,997 ---------41,055 ---- 2.40
Avg.---16,594(22.1%) --16,908(22.5%) --41,642(55.4%) ------55,416 -------51,754 --------182,314 ---- 2.43

[leo07]

You can get the last 485-inventory data released( in jan??) and count the number of applications infront of you. This will not give you exact number, but a reasonably close number. Because there could be people who have not applied for 485 for dates not being current.

OR :)

This website below, does that for you:
http://immigrationroad.com/



Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

[suninphx]

suninphx,
Please check the PERM data under FACTS AND DATA section.

So lets see...

For PD of Nov 7 2009 (EB2I) here is my calculation:

total PERMS: 426+11635+ 23064+23352+((16002/12)*10.25) ~72144
Less 10% Denials : 64930
Assuming Eb2/EB3 as 70/30 : 45451
Number of projected I485 = 45451*2.1 =95447
Add ~5000 porting cased = 100000

Is that right way to calculate?

Also the applications which will be approved till Sep 2011 are to be deducted from above number is that correct?

Thanks.

[Spectator]

The diff is only 100s . I think i might gone somewhere wrong . I deleted the non-Indian data . If i need to check again i have to start the whole process .

Thanks
Kanmani,

Can I suggest that you take the time to look at Pivot Tables within Excel. They can present the data in many ways without having to touch the data at all, which removes human error.

I had exactly the same problems.

There are some excellent tutorials on the web.

There are other alternatives, but none nearly as good as Pivot Tables, where Grouping can do all the work creating CY, Quarter, Month fields etc.

[suninphx]

You can get the last 485-inventory data released( in jan??) and count the number of applications infront of you. This will not give you exact number, but a reasonably close number. Because there could be people who have not applied for 485 for dates not being current.

OR :)

This website below, does that for you:
http://immigrationroad.com/

Thanks Leo..I did a rough calculation...check that out.

[Spectator]

Check it out. The difference is not insignificant.
If true, what it means is DoS issues visas at limit for FB. But DHS only used 214.5K towards FB.

As a consequence DoS should incresae the EB 2011 limit by 10.5K. (of course that ain't gonna happen unless a pressure group brings this to notice).

Q,

Remember, we are talking about the Department of Homeland Security here - possible the most inept department of all.

They couldn't organize the proverbial piss up in a brewery!

It is far more likely that their figures are just incorrect or they have not included some for reasons of their own. They certainly do not report all visas in all sub-categories.

The figures also include Consular Processed cases, so they could have just misreported those.

In any case, the Department of State is the final authority on the number of visas issued, so no amount of pressure is going to change the lack of spillover.

Time to take the tin-foil hat off. :D

Let's not forget, it usually takes USCIS until July or August to provide DOS with the final figures to set the annual limits, so maybe it will change, but I doubt it.

The DHS Report is usually published much later than this - now I understand why!

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind. :)

[qesehmk]

Spec there is nothing really to disagree about. I don't know the truth. So I only have doubts. 10.5K is a serious discrepancy. My gut feel is that DOS issued 226K but USCIS wasted 10.5K.

But I could be wrong.


Q,

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind. :)

[ifaith]

EAD - GreenCard
Hi Guys
Not related but trying to understand one more thing, since the PD moved till OCT 15th Does that mean people whose PD is before that and who became current they will get the GC within 30-90 days or they still have to go through EAD and all. The meaning of PD becoming current is that USCIS has actual numbers to give and hence the people whose PD became current will get card soon?
Is that correct?
Thanks

[anuran]

Spec

Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html

We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.

[qesehmk]

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?


We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.

[Spectator]

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?
Q,

If you look at last year's VBs you will see the figure was given as at least 140,000 until the August VB, when it was announced as 150,657.

The August VB contained the following paragraph:


F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 7th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2010 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2010 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,657

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2010 the per-country limit is 26,366. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,533.

I'm sure DOS knew what the figure was roughly, but not exactly.

In FY2009 USCIS the numbers were also finally fixed in August and in FY2008 it was in the September VB.

What is different this year is that DOS published the figures as 140,000 very early in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Whilst we can't entirely rule out any change, the previous number of available visas from FB has always been very close to the number that can be calculated from looking at the previous year's DOS report, the difference presumably being the Parolees mentions above.

Since FB is reported as being several hundred over the 226,000 limit last year, DOS are probably confident that no numbers that USCIS provide will alter the calculations.

[TeddyKoochu]

@spec - Thanks for the find on the VB I believe they had declared this is little earlier on the demand data.
@q - If I remember correctly it was mid year in the demand data.

If we get family spillover this year I believe that the chances of crossing the Jul - Aug 2007 line are greatly increased.

[qesehmk]

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.

For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.

So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.

p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.

[anuran]

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.
For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.
So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.
p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.

I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.

[qesehmk]

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?


I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.

[kd2008]

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?

Yup, Q that is correct. Remember many/most Family-based cases are consular processed. So a visa may be approved but the person may not enter the U.S. for whatever reason.

[anuran]

"qesehmk: DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?"
Yes. Guess it is such that DoS as a dept. of foreign policy administration has to have a role in immigration. And DHS being responsible for national security also has to have a role in immigration. CIS is stuck in the middle with them although their boss is DHS. I remember reading Ron (imminfo) noting that DoS punished CIS for wasting visas in 2007 by making the dates current. Imagine Railway minister in India punishing Foreign ministry because the train between India and Pak is traveling empty.

[soggadu]

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/eb2-china-india-fy-2011-movement-based.html

[zenmaster]

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/eb2-china-india-fy-2011-movement-based.html

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai ! :)

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007 :)

[soggadu]

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai ! :)

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007 :)

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....

[bieber]

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says

[soggadu]

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says

I am hoping for the same B.... Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC.... Hoping to see good movement....

[qesehmk]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.


Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC....

[soggadu]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

100% agree with you...

[ChampU]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.


Well said, Q!

[ChampU]

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....

I guess the "Pending I-485 inventory report" holds answers to a lot of questions. We still are awaiting the report that is supposed to come out in April. If this report becomes available before the Q4 spillover season begins, it would help determine the projected demand and would have an impact on the final PD for the fiscal year.

[ChampU]

Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?

[bieber]

soggadu

many of us are in the same situation, completely understand.

[qesehmk]

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.


Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?

[mpurna77]

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

[soggadu]

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

purna... you will be current in July...IMO...at 485 stage each primary and dependent has their own applications...so it is inclusive...

[qesehmk]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report doesn't contain counselar processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

p.s. - DoS demand data contains both 485 inventory as well as CP but only the cases where they are preadj OR are current.


Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

[TeddyKoochu]

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.

[Spectator]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.
Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: This report contains principal and dependent I-485s pending at the Nebraska Service Center and the Texas Service Center. It also includes the pre-adjudicated cases for which a visa number is not available and cases for which visa numbers are current but are still in process. In other words, it contains all I-485 currently pending at the two service centers as of October 1, 2010. However, there is a small population of cases within the jurisdiction of the Field Offices that are not included in this report, nor does it includes cases that are pending consular process at the overseas posts.

It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".

[mpurna77]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?

[qesehmk]

There has been extensive discussion on porting on this forum. Please check out by searching.

Regarding 485 inventory, I am afraid I made a mistake. Its teh DoS demand data that includes CP. 485 inventory doesn't.

Thanks Spec for pointing it out.


I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?

[gcwait2007]

I hope that the following would be monthly demand data for July 2011 for EB2 category:

Prior to China India ROW GT
1/1/2007 2000 5000 0 7000
1/1/2008 7725 14800 0 22525
1/1/2011 7800 15000 200 23000

[veni001]

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.

Teddy,
I would add EB2ROW-M-P too!
And also 33k SOFAD includes EB2I&C annual quota (~6k)?

[veni001]

Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.


It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf) include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf) include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependants listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.

[veni001]

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependents listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.
Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.

[soggadu]

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too?
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated?
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011....

[veni001]

Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.

Spec,
That's right. With the current wait time for EB3, not sure how many out of the 120k actually going to make it to end of the tunnel.

[veni001]

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too? Probably not, there is data discrepancy between DOS & USCIS, unless otherwise mentioned in VB this number is zero for FY 2011
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here I don't think so, check PERM and Trackitt trends +pending inventory as of 10-01-2010
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated? Most likely, based on todate EB1 trending (both i140 & trackitt)
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011.... Our assumption is that USCIS only applied EB1 spillover until June VB, and remaining SOFAD will kick in July VB

soggadu,
Please see my responses above.

[nayekal]

Guys,
A quick question...
What happens when there is a slight EB2-ROW backlog for certain countries, which exceeds their per country quota?
Does this countries remain current or will retrogress. Is it possible for them to get spill over before EB2 I & C?

[qesehmk]

nayekal

Since 7% is calculated across FB and EB the only countries where this happens ever are India and China (as far as EB2 goes). For all other countries they will continue to get visas until they hit 7% across FB and EB.



Guys,
A quick question...
What happens when there is a slight EB2-ROW backlog for certain countries, which exceeds their per country quota?
Does this countries remain current or will retrogress. Is it possible for them to get spill over before EB2 I & C?

[manipur]

I thought spillover happens only in last Q. spillover before last quarter might be indication of something big in store.

[soggadu]

I thought spillover happens only in last Q. spillover before last quarter might be indication of something big in store.

This is an interesting thing.... The spillover was never issued before July but this time they did it before.... So what is the reason for this and what can we expect going forward??

Spec,Q,V,T,gcwait and others please let me know your take on this and why it happened....

[vishnu]

Soggadu - I know the V you referred to was Veni but let me give my 2 cents too :)
EB1 usage is extremely low (CO words) and hence they have tons of spare visas left already. It is so low that even if demand picks up in Q4, they would have plenty of spare visas left. These guys are super conservative, so if they had 12k to spill over as of April, I'm guessing they likely would have at least 18k for the FY. They obviously want to maintain a cushion in case demand picks up and hence the 12k. Hence the movement. The next few months should see the remaining EB1 spill down + EB5 + EB2 ROW.

[soggadu]

Hey Vishnu.... I understand that EB1 usage is low then why is it projected to have only 18K if the usage is extremely low? Also in previous Years even though we had low usage from others like family based, the sofas was applied only during last quarter... So we expect a huge rally going forward ??

[veni001]

Hey Vishnu.... I understand that EB1 usage is low then why is it projected to have only 18K if the usage is extremely low? Also in previous Years even though we had low usage from others like family based, the sofas was applied only during last quarter... So we expect a huge rally going forward ??

soggadu,
The projection is based on trackitt , i140 receipts and EB1 inventory as of 10-01-2010.

[veni001]

This is an interesting thing.... The spillover was never issued before July but this time they did it before.... So what is the reason for this and what can we expect going forward??

Spec,Q,V,T,gcwait and others please let me know your take on this and why it happened....

soggadu,
The reason for spillover early is due to very low EB1 demand. Please note that this is the first time since FY 2007 that EB1 demand is less than its regular quota!


Soggadu - I know the V you referred to was Veni but let me give my 2 cents too :)
EB1 usage is extremely low (CO words) and hence they have tons of spare visas left already. It is so low that even if demand picks up in Q4, they would have plenty of spare visas left. These guys are super conservative, so if they had 12k to spill over as of April, I'm guessing they likely would have at least 18k for the FY. They obviously want to maintain a cushion in case demand picks up and hence the 12k. Hence the movement. The next few months should see the remaining EB1 spill down + EB5 + EB2 ROW.

vishnu,
Based on our estimates EB1 is at about 60% of its regular annual quota, and i agree there is a strong possibility for EB1 to yield another 6k by end of FY.

[anuran]

I thought spillover happens only in last Q. spillover before last quarter might be indication of something big in store.

Vishnu is pointed out the 12k availability. Based on EB1 usage, CO seemed to be certain that 12k will be definitely available. Of course they will not be careless and not keep a buffer. But with respect to - 'since 12k is going to be available and let us start using it in May itself scenario', I am not sure what CO's thinking is. It could be let us do something extraordinary this year. Or, in addition to a spillover like last year (~19k), now that we have 12k more (total of 32k), we may not be able to use it all in the last quarter. Hence to avoid wastage let us use the 12k starting in May. All the same, there seems to be more than what was available this year excluding the EB1. That is the estimation here by all of the number crunchers (32-39k). They go by perm data and trackitt data as well. I have very little to doubt the estimates by Q and others. That is because trackitt data is probably more precise this year compared to the last due to increased usage. But I am sure of one thing - there is 1.5 to 2 times more visas this year than the last.

[mpurna77]

Hi,

Do you still think this year also we gonna get same spillover from EB2Row like last year, even though there are so many porting EB3-Eb2.

I am thinking this year spillover (other than 12k) will be less than last year, coz the way EB3-Eb2 porting happening in each country.

What is your take on this, anyone?

[qesehmk]

Assuming ROW demand stays same YoY .... its really ROW porting that would reduce ROW spillover (I should really say Fall Across) YoY.

Nobody seems to believe ROW porting is such a big issue since ROW EB3 is not in as dire situation as EB3IC.




Hi,

Do you still think this year also we gonna get same spillover from EB2Row like last year, even though there are so many porting EB3-Eb2.

I am thinking this year spillover (other than 12k) will be less than last year, coz the way EB3-Eb2 porting happening in each country.

What is your take on this, anyone?

[kd2008]

Assuming ROW demand stays same YoY .... its really ROW porting that would reduce ROW spillover (I should really say Fall Across) YoY.

Nobody seems to believe ROW porting is such a big issue since ROW EB3 is not in as dire situation as EB3IC.

Q, do you honestly think YoY demand is going to remain same? Given the number of pending cases in trackitt, it hardly seems sensible in my opinion.

[qesehmk]

KD

trackitt trend suggests 5-10% reduction in YoY demand. So if we take it to bank, then that would be offset by the 10K FB spillover that has vanished from last year. So its a wash.

However you are right that ... if USCIS wants to adjudicate they have sufficient demand in pipeline that can exhaust entire ROW quota. But my gut feel is .. ROW will probably provide decent SOFAD 4-8K.



Q, do you honestly think YoY demand is going to remain same? Given the number of pending cases in trackitt, it hardly seems sensible in my opinion.

[vishnu]

Also, the May visa bulletin referred to unused first AND SECOND preference visas. So there will be some fall across from EB2 ROW. Again would highlight the significance of how conservative they are - if they do say there will be some spillover, there will be spillover :)

[angryclubs]

Q
Is there any change in projections that will make it to the front page? Still says will be updated by the end of the week. Last week?

[qesehmk]

Sorry .... have been extremely busy with personal and business stuff. Will certainly do it by tomorrow morning.


Q
Is there any change in projections that will make it to the front page? Still says will be updated by the end of the week. Last week?

[veni001]

Also, the May visa bulletin referred to unused first AND SECOND preference visas. So there will be some fall across from EB2 ROW. Again would highlight the significance of how conservative they are - if they do say there will be some spillover, there will be spillover :)

vishnu,
I don't think DOS mentioned SECOND preference...

"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries."


unless we want to take it as both EB1 and EB2ROW the "otherwise unused" numbers should be from EB1!

[vishnu]

Veni - from May bulletin:
Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.

[shaumack]

vishnu,
I don't think DOS mentioned SECOND preference...

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. "

[veni001]

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. "

shaumack,
DOS is quotingINA Section 202(a)(5) which allows them to allocate "otherwise unused" numbers, when ever they quote this section the language remain same.
But when they mentioned VISA availability they only mentioned that EB1 demand is extremely low and no mention of EB2ROW demand.

[veni001]

KD

trackitt trend suggests 5-10% reduction in YoY demand. So if we take it to bank, then that would be offset by the 10K FB spillover that has vanished from last year. So its a wash.

However you are right that ... if USCIS wants to adjudicate they have sufficient demand in pipeline that can exhaust entire ROW quota. But my gut feel is .. ROW will probably provide decent SOFAD 4-8K.

Q,
I agree, not sure how many of the ~33.0k i140 pending at USCIS as of Feb 2011 are EB2ROW!

[TeddyKoochu]

Q,
I agree, not sure how many of the ~33.0k i140 pending at USCIS as of Feb 2011 are EB2ROW!

These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.

[whereismygclost]

Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.

Thanks for the correction I was quoting from the current processing times if real examples as you have quoted do not conform to that in general then really we should go by the real examples.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I just found the following on Ron Gotchers blog there will be no FB spillover.
- http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-topics-2/family-based-fb-visa-spillover-from-previous-year-13533/

[kd2008]

These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.

Teddy, just look at the number of EB2-ROW cases pending since Oct 2010 in the I-485 tracker on trackitt.

[veni001]

Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.

whereismygclost,
Agree there are exceptions.


These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.

Teddy,
Slow rate of i140 approvals is only going to help us in the short run. EB2I&C should continue to advance at the same rate( as FY2010) to clear the backlogs.
Agree we did not see ROW PERM surge but as Q pointed, will be a washout between no FB spillover and possible higher % of EB2 filings this year.
I am hoping to see at-least a hint of EB2ROW demand in July VB from DOS/USCIS!

[shaumack]

shaumack,
DOS is quotingINA Section 202(a)(5) which allows them to allocate "otherwise unused" numbers, when ever they quote this section the language remain same.
But when they mentioned VISA availability they only mentioned that EB1 demand is extremely low and no mention of EB2ROW demand.

Hi Veni :
I would disagree with you on this. Please see similar excerpt from April 2008 VB. In general when DOS mention statement INA Section 202(a)(5), they will also mention why they think current demand level is low. In excerpt below it clearly states unused visa numbers in Employment Second Preference only. This year it says EB1 and EB2. I believe when May visa bulletin was released, EB2 ROW demand was low. This could have changed as we will progress in the year. But I take above statement some what encoraging.

"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially."

[veni001]

Hi Veni :
I would disagree with you on this. Please see similar excerpt from April 2008 VB. In general when DOS mention statement INA Section 202(a)(5), they will also mention why they think current demand level is low. In excerpt below it clearly states unused visa numbers in Employment Second Preference only. This year it says EB1 and EB2. I believe when May visa bulletin was released, EB2 ROW demand was low. This could have changed as we will progress in the year. But I take above statement some what encouraging.

"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially."

shaumack,
I agree, What they quoted with INA Section 202(a)(5) is contracting (or I should say not supporting) what they mentioned under VISA Availability Section in May 2011VB.

Since our approach is conservative, we are just waiting for more concrete info to bet on EB2ROW spillover.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, just look at the number of EB2-ROW cases pending since Oct 2010 in the I-485 tracker on trackitt.


whereismygclost,
Teddy,
Slow rate of i140 approvals is only going to help us in the short run. EB2I&C should continue to advance at the same rate( as FY2010) to clear the backlogs.
Agree we did not see ROW PERM surge but as Q pointed, will be a washout between no FB spillover and possible higher % of EB2 filings this year.
I am hoping to see at-least a hint of EB2ROW demand in July VB from DOS/USCIS!

1. Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011. As spec also pointed out earlier there was a peak in approval in Q1 CY 2011 corresponding to high filing in Q4 CY 2010 but looks likes its subsiding now. I think its still fair to say that we will get around 7K from EB2 ROW compared to 11.5K last year with the utilizations being same unfortunately we have lower cap this year.

[bieber]

Last year EB2IC received 26K with almost 0 from EB1 and 8k from EB2ROW.
Now even if EB2ROW gives 0, we know EB1 for sure giving 12k, so that makes a minimum of 30K sofad this year.

If EB1 gives anymore in Q3and Q4 and Eb2 yields even smaller number inventory should be cleared (understood that PWMB applications will fill to some level)

[kd2008]

Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011.

Thanks, Teddy. Yup, This was the data I was looking at.

[veni001]

Last year EB2IC received 26K with almost 0 from EB1 and 8k from EB2ROW.
Now even if EB2ROW gives 0, we know EB1 for sure giving 12k, so that makes a minimum of 30K sofad this year.

If EB1 gives anymore in Q3and Q4 and Eb2 yields even smaller number inventory should be cleared (understood that PWMB applications will fill to some level)

biber,
You are missing 10.0k FB spillover last year out of which about 7.0k filtered down to EB2I&C at the end.

[Spectator]

1. Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011. As spec also pointed out earlier there was a peak in approval in Q1 CY 2011 corresponding to high filing in Q4 CY 2010 but looks likes its subsiding now. I think its still fair to say that we will get around 7K from EB2 ROW compared to 11.5K last year with the utilizations being same unfortunately we have lower cap this year.
Teddy,

If you look in the FACTS & DATA section you will find that data compiled month by month and corrected for C of C etc for Primary applicants. Contrary to your post, it shows an increasing trend, although I think it possible that this will stabilize or fall back during the remainder of the year.

It also includes two types of Corrections for October figures, which may include approvals where the visa was allocated from the previous year's quota. That is particularly pertinent, as there were major differences between FY2010 and FY2011 October approvals.

Look at the EB2-India figures first to see the effect. I don't think anyone can believe that EB2-I had only reached 69% of last year's figure at the end of April 2011.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections

[mpurna77]

Hi Guys how to find that our case is pre-adjudicated. is there any way. I did take info pass two times to ask what is the status they said they waiting for number. But not said exactly its got pre-adjudicated.

Any way to find this?

mine PD 12/22/2006, is it going to be current in July VB?

[TeluguBidda]

Hi Guys how to find that our case is pre-adjudicated. is there any way. I did take info pass two times to ask what is the status they said they waiting for number. But not said exactly its got pre-adjudicated.

Any way to find this?

Infopass is the only way to know. The phrase, "waiting for visa number", appears to suggest that you have been pre-adjudicated. Do I have a guarantee, NO.

Another way to find, with very less guarantee is monitoring SLUDs on your I-485. If you see a recent SLUD which you did not cause (like you did not change address), you may assume that some activity was happening and that the activity could have been pre-adjucation.

The thing with SLUDs though, if someone is swinging your file to get more air because the room was not cold enough, it can generate SLUDs :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

If you look in the FACTS & DATA section you will find that data compiled month by month and corrected for C of C etc for Primary applicants. Contrary to your post, it shows an increasing trend, although I think it possible that this will stabilize or fall back during the remainder of the year.

It also includes two types of Corrections for October figures, which may include approvals where the visa was allocated from the previous year's quota. That is particularly pertinent, as there were major differences between FY2010 and FY2011 October approvals.

Look at the EB2-India figures first to see the effect. I don't think anyone can believe that EB2-I had only reached 69% of last year's figure at the end of April 2011.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections

I did the following query on Trackitt, I get diffferent figures than what you have tabulated.

I did the following query.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2.
Type = Primary
Status = Approved
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 285
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 264

This shows a decline of ~ 10%. Please advise if your figures for ROW also include NIW, Mex & Phl normally on Trackitt they follow the same trend. I think for ROW we should include Oct because there is nothing to stop ROW approvals unlike I/C so their approvals in Oct should be from the new years cap unlike I/C where there would be some residual approvals in Oct but the cap number came from the last years cap.

[Spectator]

I did the following query on Trackitt, I get diffferent figures than what you have tabulated.

I did the following query.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2.
Type = Primary
Status = Approved
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 285
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 264

This shows a decline of ~ 10%. Please advise if your figures for ROW also include NIW, Mex & Phl normally on Trackitt they follow the same trend. I think for ROW we should include Oct because there is nothing to stop ROW approvals unlike I/C so their approvals in Oct should be from the new years cap unlike I/C where there would be some residual approvals in Oct but the cap number came from the last years cap.
Teddy,

Include NIW
Do not include M & P, but EB2-ALL obviously does.

I have kept these figures on a daily basis since the beginning of the year and they are reported on a consistent basis. For instance, currently the EB2-I figures contains over 30 cases that are still reported as EB3 approvals on Trackitt.

There is every likelihood of all Categories and Countries leaking into October. USCIS is so busy dealing with EB2-IC spillover, it is almost inevitable. For instance, there were only 21 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW in September 2010, followed by 70 in October 2010.

If only ROW showed the trend, I would likely agree with you, but that is not the case.

PS For reference EB2-ROW currently stands at 268 EB2 & 34 EB2-NIW by Country of Nationality, plus 22 from India with a ROW Chargeability, plus 4 from China with a ROW Chargeability minus 2 with Indian Chargeability plus 1 Porting cases still shown as EB3-ROW minus one duplicate plus 3 that have been removed from Trackitt since approval. Hopefully I've described that correctly. The net figure is 329.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.

[veni001]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI), EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

[qesehmk]

Good going Veni. Thanks.


kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI), EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

[qesehmk]

Friends ... header updated. I am reasonably confident that the most likely date will be in Apr 2007 for EB2IC with a 1.5 months margin on either side (So the range would be mar-jun 2007. Pls check the top of the thread.

[Spectator]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.
kd,

Thanks for the heads up.

There have only been more completions than receipts in a month once in the last 13 months.

The backlog (All Other Pending) has consequently risen from 11k to nearly 34k.

That is not a particularly enviable record.

[Spectator]

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI), EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.
Veni,

I have the actual I-140 Dashboard data for October and November 2008 which you are estimating.

The full figures are:

--------- All Other ----- Awaiting
---------- Pending -- Cust Action -- Completions -- Receipts
Oct08 ----- 95,749 -------- 3,638 --------- 12,363 ----- 5,633
Nov08 ----- 92,106 -------- 2,927 --------- 10,811 ----- 4,664

although I think you only need the Receipt numbers.

Hope that helps.

[soggadu]

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI), EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.


So guys.... Is it bad news for expected Sofad ?? Any comments on where we stand with this new data??

[veni001]

So guys.... Is it bad news for expected Sofad ?? Any comments on where we stand with this new data??

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

[gcwait2007]

Friends ... header updated. I am reasonably confident that the most likely date will be in Apr 2007 for EB2IC with a 1.5 months margin on either side (So the range would be mar-jun 2007. Pls check the top of the thread.

Thanks for updating the thread. With closeby PD, I am anxious every minute :rolleyes:
Earlier I used to feel that the work and stay in US is temp and lived in a way that I was ready to move back to India in short notice. These days I am buying many things and have the sense of settling down in work and place.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

with PD Oct 22 07, my hopes of applying for EAD during this FY are going down with every bit of new data that is emerging out..... hey god... thoda lift karadee...mujhe nahi, spillover ko....

[gcwait2007]

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

V,

While I concur with your estimate of EB1+EB2ROW would provide around 10K, I would believe that EB5 would provide about 5800 visas. Total spillover would be 16K on the 'realistic side' for the last quarter. Pessimistic 14K, Realistic 16K, Optismistic 18K.

[ssvp22]

with PD Oct 22 07, my hopes of applying for EAD during this FY are going down with every bit of new data that is emerging out..... hey god... thoda lift karadee...mujhe nahi, spillover ko.... @soggadu i have the same priority date. Hope we can atleast get the EAD. Cannot stand my current job anymore.

[soggadu]

@soggadu i have the same priority date. Hope we can atleast get the EAD. Cannot stand my current job anymore.

awesome...lets hope for the best... hey keep in touch going forward....

[manipur]

my priority date is 3rd week of June. what are the chances of getting atleast EAD. I missed the boat in July by 2 weeks.I hope history doesn't repeat this time.

[qesehmk]

GCW ..you are not alone. It happens with most of us. I can certainly say for myself.

Hoping to get a GC this year and wife and I are planning that she will go back immediately with Kids for a semester to see how things work out there. If not I guess we will settle here.


Thanks for updating the thread. With closeby PD, I am anxious every minute :rolleyes:
Earlier I used to feel that the work and stay in US is temp and lived in a way that I was ready to move back to India in short notice. These days I am buying many things and have the sense of settling down in work and place.

[qesehmk]

Since trackitt is the best data source we have, here are some interesting insights from trackitt.

Of all 140s filed during Aug10-till date, 75% are EB2 & 25% are EB2-ROW. Only 15% are EB1.

Looking at USCIS dashboard for comparable time period, it tells us that for full year the absolute number will be 70K completions.

Of that 70K 15% EB1 would translated to approx 23.5K EB1 485 approvals for full year. => 16.5K SOFAD from EB1 for full year.

However ROW is not as much rosy. Looked at from I-140 perspective, ROW seems to consume 34K this year as opposed to 27K last year. There are two ways to arrive at 34K. 1) take EB2ROW as a % based on trackitt. That is 25%. Apply that to projected full year I-140 receipts (approx at 70K). Multiple result by 2 to account for dependents. 2) Method 2 - look at trackitt. Last year ROWMP had 360 I-140 applications. This year for 8 months we have 308. Project full year for this year. And then apply to 27.5K (which was full year approvals for ROWMP EB2). Interesting both methods give 34K.

In the projection in header though we have used PERM data which gave us 80% run rate of last year.

So you see? PERM data tells positive picture. I-140 negative. Which one is it going to be? We don't know. This is like classic supply chain issues. While inventory in one place is being cleared.... it builds up in another place thereby reducing throughput. Or the other way round - throughput can increase even when new receipts are low because the inventory is being cleared at some place.

That's the difficulty in prediction... That's why I say there are so many different levers that USCIS can pull to SERVE THEIR POLICY OBJECTIVES.

Our best bet and hope is whats mentioned in the header! Lets cross the fingers!




kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI), EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

[kd2008]

Q, thanks for the insight. Based on the deluge of PERM approvals at the start of fiscal year, I had said that I don't see a spillover from EB2ROW. But the lack of I-140 and I-485 approvals made me think that we may get some but at best not more than last year.

Now your analysis makes me think again that it might be zero. Sorry to be such a pessimist. After being burnt in past couple of years, I am still reluctant to imagine a more positive outcome of predictions.

[mpurna77]

I am new to this forum, On first page prediction EB3 India still shows under section 'Dates Movement Guesstimate Below' is March 02. As of June VB it is already 22APR02.

So what dates movement we are talking about. I didn't get clear.

Sorry if I am asking stupid question.

[qesehmk]

sorry I only updated EB2 since this is EB2 thread. I didn't look at EB3.

However March 02 was old estimate. The movement till Apr 02 indicates the significance of porting.Will update later today. Thanks.

And no question is stupid!


I am new to this forum, On first page prediction EB3 India still shows under section 'Dates Movement Guesstimate Below' is March 02. As of June VB it is already 22APR02.

So what dates movement we are talking about. I didn't get clear.

Sorry if I am asking stupid question.

[Osaka001]

March I-140 Completions are similar to previous year. The receipts are increased by 1213, due to PERM clearance.
2010 -> Completions - 7343, Receipts - 7526
2011 -> Completions - 7316, Receipts - 8739

[mpurna77]

We all from all forums know that EB3-EB2 porting is prime driving force of EB2IC movement. Is there any place to get accurate data how many applications PERM/I-140 filled and how many got approved from Jan 2011.? we are predicting all these movements on assumptions or can we have real data from DHS or USCIS by requesting them. is it possible?

[mpurna77]

the movement for EB2 I - Apr 07, is this up to Sep 2011 VB or next month only?

[bieber]

mpurna77,

please read through all the pages of this thread. if you want just the data, check the facts & data section

[mpurna77]

mpurna77,

please read through all the pages of this thread. if you want just the data, check the facts & data section

where is FACTS and DATA section I don't see it in forum. can you provide me link.Thanks

[veni001]

where is FACTS and DATA section I don't see it in forum. can you provide me link.Thanks

mpurna77,
Please check the following links...

i-140 Data and Calculations (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI)

i-485 Data and Calculations (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?48-485-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI)

[veni001]

the movement for EB2 I - Apr 07, is this up to Sep 2011 VB or next month only?

mpurna77,
It is by end of FY, which is Sept 2011

[veni001]

Q, thanks for the insight. Based on the deluge of PERM approvals at the start of fiscal year, I had said that I don't see a spillover from EB2ROW. But the lack of I-140 and I-485 approvals made me think that we may get some but at best not more than last year.

Now your analysis makes me think again that it might be zero. Sorry to be such a pessimist. After being burnt in past couple of years, I am still reluctant to imagine a more positive outcome of predictions.

kd2008,
I agree, even though they are only averaging about 6.0k i-140 completions per month for the last year and half, I am still still reluctant to bet on EB2ROW spillover.
So far the highest i-140 completions in a month, since data was made available, is 18,881 in Feb 2009, which means they have the capability to process all pending to-date in about two months.

[krishnav]

Hello All,

Can anyone shed light on how the movement of dates could be after sept 2011. Assuming our predictions are accurante and we stop at Apr 2007, any idea how long it would take for the dates to reach around Sept - Oct 2007 time frame with the current data.

Sorry if this has already been answered.

[zenmaster]

Hello All,

Can anyone shed light on how the movement of dates could be after sept 2011. Assuming our predictions are accurante and we stop at Apr 2007, any idea how long it would take for the dates to reach around Sept - Oct 2007 time frame with the current data.

Sorry if this has already been answered.

It all depends how much we move until Sep 2011. :)
Gotta wait and watch...

[soggadu]

It all depends how much we move until Sep 2011. :)
Gotta wait and watch...

I still don't understand why NVC has sent emails till Oct07 askIng to pay fees for CP... It is usually done in cases where DOS thinks the PD will be current in coming months... Damn... So many ifs and when's attached to all these calculations and numbers... Just wish it was more simple... But one point for all those waiting for getting current after 07 07 ... Don't keep any hopes for this year.... Go on with ur lives.... My 2 cents..prove me wrong CIS/DOS....

[pch053]

Hello All,

Can anyone shed light on how the movement of dates could be after sept 2011. Assuming our predictions are accurante and we stop at Apr 2007, any idea how long it would take for the dates to reach around Sept - Oct 2007 time frame with the current data.

Sorry if this has already been answered.

I think it will reach Sep - Oct'07 in a year's time, i.e. anywhere around June - July'12.

[veni001]

Since trackitt is the best data source we have, here are some interesting insights from trackitt.

Of all 140s filed during Aug10-till date, 75% are EB2 & 25% are EB2-ROW. Only 15% are EB1.

Looking at USCIS dashboard for comparable time period, it tells us that for full year the absolute number will be 70K receipts.

Of that 70K 15% EB1 would translated to approx 23.5K EB1 485 approvals for full year. => 16.5K SOFAD from EB1 for full year.

However ROW is not as much rosy. Looked at from I-140 perspective, ROW seems to consume 34K this year as opposed to 27K last year. There are two ways to arrive at 34K. 1) take EB2ROW as a % based on trackitt. That is 25%. Apply that to projected full year I-140 receipts (approx at 70K). Multiple result by 2 to account for dependents. 2) Method 2 - look at trackitt. Last year ROWMP had 360 I-140 applications. This year for 8 months we have 308. Project full year for this year. And then apply to 27.5K (which was full year approvals for ROWMP EB2). Interesting both methods give 34K.

In the projection in header though we have used PERM data which gave us 80% run rate of last year.

So you see? PERM data tells positive picture. I-140 negative. Which one is it going to be? We don't know. This is like classic supply chain issues. While inventory in one place is being cleared.... it builds up in another place thereby reducing throughput. Or the other way round - throughput can increase even when new receipts are low because the inventory is being cleared at some place.

That's the difficulty in prediction... That's why I say there are so many different levers that USCIS can pull to SERVE THEIR POLICY OBJECTIVES.

Our best bet and hope is whats mentioned in the header! Lets cross the fingers!

Q,
You lost me at i-140 projections based on USCIS dash board. As per the data Aug-10 to Mar-11 there are 58.6k i-140 receipts or averaging about 7.3 k per month, which translates to 88k demand for FY2011. This is about 14% higher compared to FY2010. FY2010 total i-140 receipts = 77.3k

As far as EB1 demand, i-140 trending shows about 6.9k application from Q1 and Q2 adding Q3 estimate will bring it to 10.4k, apply 20% denial rate and 2.4 dependent factor gives 19.9k demand for the three quarters, now add EB1 pending(7.6k) as of 10-01-2010 this translates to 27.5k known demand until 07-01-2011.

The key for any additional SOFAD is how many EB1&EB2ROW i140's are going to be cleared/pending by 07-01-2011

[qesehmk]

Veni

I looked at the completion rate not receipt. So even if the completions proceed as they are now, 70K will be the full year completions.
There is a risk that the completions could accelerate.

Regarding your date Jul-1-2011 as kind of application deadline for obtaining visa this year, since all of this is concurrent, theoretically even 1st sep would be an ok date.

However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.



Q,
You lost me at i-140 projections based on USCIS dash board. As per the data Aug-10 to Mar-11 there are 58.6k i-140 receipts or averaging about 7.3 k per month, which translates to 88k demand for FY2011. This is about 14% higher compared to FY2010. FY2010 total i-140 receipts = 77.3k

As far as EB1 demand, i-140 trending shows about 6.9k application from Q1 and Q2 adding Q3 estimate will bring it to 10.4k, apply 20% denial rate and 2.4 dependent factor gives 19.9k demand for the three quarters, now add EB1 pending(7.6k) as of 10-01-2010 this translates to 27.5k known demand until 07-01-2011.

The key for any additional SOFAD is how many EB1&EB2ROW i140's are going to be cleared/pending by 07-01-2011

[TeluguBidda]

However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.

Most likely true because based on latest TSC processing dates, I-485 processing timeframe is now "September 6, 2010". Of course, TSC does not have a nice breakup of EB-1, EB-2, etc,. like NSC for instance.

[veni001]

Veni

I looked at the completion rate not receipt. So even if the completions proceed as they are now, 70K will be the full year completions.
There is a risk that the completions could accelerate.

Regarding your date Jul-1-2011 as kind of application deadline for obtaining visa this year, since all of this is concurrent, theoretically even 1st sep would be an ok date.

However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.

Q,
Thanks for clarification.

[soggadu]

Veni

I looked at the completion rate not receipt. So even if the completions proceed as they are now, 70K will be the full year completions.
There is a risk that the completions could accelerate.

Regarding your date Jul-1-2011 as kind of application deadline for obtaining visa this year, since all of this is concurrent, theoretically even 1st sep would be an ok date.

However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.

Does this point us to more SOFAD than expected?

[TeluguBidda]

Does this point us to more SOFAD than expected?

Instead of focussing on "how much" SOFAD, we should be contended with the fact that Dates will not progress beyond March/April 2007. Math around SOFAD is mind-boggling at best, exacerbated by lack of bare-minimum inputs.

[qesehmk]

Definitely NOT.

To be a bit technical - the lagging indicators are positive (i.e. trackitt approvals / dashboard approvals). But the leading indicators (I-140 / 485 receipts) are -ve. PERM data which is another leading indicator is +ve.

So all in all - it could go eitherway. So what we present on this forum is really an "EDUCATED GUESS". At the end of teh day it is still a "Guess". But an "Educated" one though!


Does this point us to more SOFAD than expected?

[ssvp22]

Definitely NOT.

To be a bit technical - the lagging indicators are positive (i.e. trackitt approvals / dashboard approvals). But the leading indicators (I-140 / 485 receipts) are -ve. PERM data which is another leading indicator is +ve.

So all in all - it could go eitherway. So what we present on this forum is really an "EDUCATED GUESS". At the end of teh day it is still a "Guess". But an "Educated" one though!

I support qesehmk. By not calculating and hence not knowing the numbers, we are open to situations where visa numbers can get wasted 'cause the dates were never moved as required, as it has happened in the past. Let's say if our calculations were to show 10k visa number wastage, we can get media involved and make sure it does not happen. Otherwise we are open to exploitation where American companies will keep fleecing us for as long as possible.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

[whereismygclost]

Teddy so when do you think they will move dates between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008? Is it Oct'11 to Dec'11 or is it the 2012 spillover season of July-Sep'12?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy so when do you think they will move dates between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008? Is it Oct'11 to Dec'11 or is it the 2012 spillover season of July-Sep'12?

This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.

[whereismygclost]

Teddy ...so the date will remain stagnant at 01-May-2007 till when? When will they move the date to take the new 24K intake?

[srini1976]

Teddy,
As always great predictions!
However - this is what I found on immigration-law.com

5/19/2011: USCIS Announces Proposals for Significant Enhancements to EB-5 Visa Processing and Seeks Comment on the Proposals by 06/17/2011

USCIS is proposing three fundamental changes to the way it processes EB-5 Regional Center filings.
I: Firstly, USCIS proposes to accelerate its processing of applications for job-creating projects that are fully developed and ready to be implemented. USCIS will also give these EB-5 applicants and petitioners the option to request Premium Processing Service, which guarantees processing within 15 calendar days for an additional fee.
II: Secondly , USCIS proposes the creation of new specialized intake teams with expertise in economic analysis and the EB-5 Program requirements. EB-5 Regional Center applicants will be able to communicate directly with the specialized intake teams via e-mail to streamline the resolution of issues and quickly address questions or needs related to their applications.
III: Thirdly, USCIS proposes to convene an expert Decision Board to render decisions regarding EB-5 Regional Center applications. The Decision Board will be composed of an economist and adjudicators and will be supported by legal counsel.
This proposal will be online until June 17, 2011, for public comment—providing stakeholders an opportunity to offer feedback on the proposed changes to the administration of the EB-5 Program. For the full text of the Operational Proposals for Comment, please click here. Read also USCIS Director's statement.

If this proposal is accepted we may not get the numbers from EB5 for 2012 season?




Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy ...so the date will remain stagnant at 01-May-2007 till when? When will they move the date to take the new 24K intake?

If I remember correctly your PD is Oct 2007, I can empathize with you in the sense that we have been waiting since the last 4 years just for filing 485. This year we saw a lot of inertia in their moving the dates so if we use this year as a precedent then it may well be as late as May 2011 I do hope that they do it earlier to have sufficient time to adjudicate the cases but this is all in the hypothetical domain.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
As always great predictions!
However - this is what I found on immigration-law.com

5/19/2011: USCIS Announces Proposals for Significant Enhancements to EB-5 Visa Processing and Seeks Comment on the Proposals by 06/17/2011

USCIS is proposing three fundamental changes to the way it processes EB-5 Regional Center filings.
I: Firstly, USCIS proposes to accelerate its processing of applications for job-creating projects that are fully developed and ready to be implemented. USCIS will also give these EB-5 applicants and petitioners the option to request Premium Processing Service, which guarantees processing within 15 calendar days for an additional fee.
II: Secondly , USCIS proposes the creation of new specialized intake teams with expertise in economic analysis and the EB-5 Program requirements. EB-5 Regional Center applicants will be able to communicate directly with the specialized intake teams via e-mail to streamline the resolution of issues and quickly address questions or needs related to their applications.
III: Thirdly, USCIS proposes to convene an expert Decision Board to render decisions regarding EB-5 Regional Center applications. The Decision Board will be composed of an economist and adjudicators and will be supported by legal counsel.
This proposal will be online until June 17, 2011, for public comment—providing stakeholders an opportunity to offer feedback on the proposed changes to the administration of the EB-5 Program. For the full text of the Operational Proposals for Comment, please click here. Read also USCIS Director's statement.

If this proposal is accepted we may not get the numbers from EB5 for 2012 season?

Thanks for the link, probably they maybe late for this year and we will get EB5 spillover but if they aggressively go after it yes EB5 SOFAD will be less in 2012.

[whereismygclost]

Thanks for your insights Teddy ...yes my PD is Oct'07 ...so this year also is most likely gone ...missed July'07 fiasco by some months and still both me and my wife are paying the price of not having EAD ...forget GC .....just waiting to file my EAD ..ASAP!

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for your insights Teddy ...yes my PD is Oct'07 ...so this year also is most likely gone ...missed July'07 fiasco by some months and still both me and my wife are paying the price of not having EAD ...forget GC .....just waiting to file my EAD ..ASAP!

We will have our EAD/AP and GC by Sep 2012, Iam in exactly same boat as you are Iam hoping to file 485 before H1 expiry in Sep 2012, life is hard without EAD and missing the Jul 2007 windfall is definitely something very big to miss.

[ChampU]

Teddy,

I understand the calculations that made you arrive at the May'07 date by the end of FY'11. If that happens, the known demand (or backlog) for DoS would only be 6523 visas (2413 for EB2C and 4110 EB2I) + the demand coming in from the current countries.
I know they would have the statistics of PERM and I140 approvals from USCIS. However, these stats paint an inaccurate picture, as they may not include all the dependents. How much DoS would rely on these is anyone's guess.

In the past, DOS has shown no reluctance to move the dates forward to generate demand and then retrogress them.
The most drastic measure for DoS would be to make it C across the board and then have USCIS deal with the added workload. I doubt if this would happen.
But I certainly feel they would partially open the gates and move the dates around Oct. 2007 and then scale it back by Sept. 2011.
I don't have any basis for this feeling other than the rumors of NVC sending out emails for CP applicants with 10/07 priority dates.

[soggadu]

Teddy,

I understand the calculations that made you arrive at the May'07 date by the end of FY'11. If that happens, the known demand (or backlog) for DoS would only be 6523 visas (2413 for EB2C and 4110 EB2I) + the demand coming in from the current countries.
I know they would have the statistics of PERM and I140 approvals from USCIS. However, these stats paint an inaccurate picture, as they may not include all the dependents. How much DoS would rely on these is anyone's guess.

In the past, DOS has shown no reluctance to move the dates forward to generate demand and then retrogress them.
The most drastic measure for DoS would be to make it C across the board and then have USCIS deal with the added workload. I doubt if this would happen.
But I certainly feel they would partially open the gates and move the dates around Oct. 2007 and then scale it back by Sept. 2011.
I don't have any basis for this feeling other than the rumors of NVC sending out emails for CP applicants with 10/07 priority dates.

atlast.... someone's talking about those emails!!!....whats your PD Champ?

[03May07]

This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.

Teddy don't say that....:) My PD is 03 May 07. I missed July fiasco by few hours..got labor approved on Aug 17 2007 in the afternoon..and now again by few days?? I can't take it anymore!!

Q and other guys you are doing a great job on this forum..I left all the forums and just following yours everyday...infact every few hours... for the updates.

[ChampU]

Soggadu,

My PD is 02/22/2008. I've my "I'm Greened" message ready with a date of 07/31/2012.. :-)

[veni001]

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

Teddy,
Even-though my approach is conservative, I assume USCIS Policy Memorandum (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf) on EB1-2 is impacting EB2 approvals also, and the i-140 backlog(~36k) may not going to be cleared any sooner.
So, there may be chances for spillover from EB2ROW!!

Here is the excerpt on EB2 from the Memo

"The statutory provision for the Alien of Exceptional Ability immigrant classification at INA 203(b)(2)(A) requires that the alien will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States because of his or her exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business. The alien must also have a job offer from a U.S. employer to provide services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business.5 The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(2) defines exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business as having a degree of expertise significantly above that ordinarily encountered in the sciences, arts, or business. The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(3)(ii) requires that a petition for this immigrant classification must be accompanied by documentation consisting of at least three out of six types of evidence listed in the regulation (e.g., academic record, professional license, membership in professional associations)."

.....
.....
"Policy
In order to promote consistency in decision-making, USCIS officers should use a two-part approach for evaluating evidence submitted in support of all petitions filed for Aliens of Extraordinary Ability, Outstanding Professors or Researchers, and Aliens of Exceptional Ability. USCIS officers should first objectively evaluate each type of evidence submitted to determine if it meets the parameters applicable to that type of evidence described in the regulations (also referred to as “regulatory criteria”). USCIS officers then should consider all of the evidence in totality in making the final merits determination regarding the required high level of expertise for the immigrant classification."
.....
.....

[tanu_75]

Soggadu,

My PD is 02/22/2008. I've my "I'm Greened" message ready with a date of 07/31/2012.. :-)

Damn Champ. You are either one optimistic dude or haven't lived through at least three years of the dreaded last Visa Bulletin quarters. We should subject the terrorists to this, rather than anything else, promise a GC and then advance/retrogress for the next 2-3 years, maybe mix it up every few months. I'm sure they will talk after living through that kind of torture.

[ChampU]

Tanu,

For someone like me who works in a finance domain, there is (A.) no sense of job security (B.) Switching jobs is as common as Charlie Sheen switching broads.. My employer wanted me to file for GC in Feb 2007 but I delayed.. guess what.. I have filed my GC through the same bank and have been passed on for a whole bunch of promotions/growth offers..
Long story short, I have dealt with my demons and have lived through the torture of being the dumbest SOB on the planet.. ..I have spoken at least thrice to Schumer's staffers when he was the torch bearer of the Immigration movement.. have been let down.. spoke to Menendez's staffers..All in the hopes of getting something that is just and something that I truly deserve..

After all efforts have run out, I have no other choice but be optimistic..

[qesehmk]

3M (hope you don't mind if we call you that),

Your words (and others who have sometimes expressed similar things) make us going. Hope you also catch the spirit here and help others understand what you have learnt!


Q and other guys you are doing a great job on this forum..I left all the forums and just following yours everyday...infact every few hours... for the updates.

[soggadu]

Tanu,

For someone like me who works in a finance domain, there is (A.) no sense of job security (B.) Switching jobs is as common as Charlie Sheen switching broads.. My employer wanted me to file for GC in Feb 2007 but I delayed.. guess what.. I have filed my GC through the same bank and have been passed on for a whole bunch of promotions/growth offers..
Long story short, I have dealt with my demons and have lived through the torture of being the dumbest SOB on the planet.. ..I have spoken at least thrice to Schumer's staffers when he was the torch bearer of the Immigration movement.. have been let down.. spoke to Menendez's staffers..All in the hopes of getting something that is just and something that I truly deserve..

After all efforts have run out, I have no other choice but be optimistic..

Dude... +1 for the above description... i delayed it from 2006 end and finally filed in 2007 oct... lost a job offer ( life time work from home :-( and alot... now waiting to get glimpse of atleast an EAD .... i liked your optimism....Keep it going...

[skpanda]

Folks...I have observed that the processing dates for TSC has been updated on May 17. However I140 dates have not moved or moved by 2 days. As of 31st March 2011 (updated on 17 May 2011) the processing date is 2 Sept 2010. As of 28th Feb 2011 it was August 31st 2010.

So the turn around time is around 8 months now?

Note: NSC turn around shows 4 months. VSC shows a date of October 31st. Only TSC seems to have problem.

Anybody has clue why TSC is backlogged?

Why I care? My I140 is with TSC and wondering when they will take decision on it.

S
EB2I - PD Dec 2010.

[grnwtg]

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

This Post is disheartening for people like me who are in the first week of march '2008. Unable to bear this after living in this country for 10 yrs. Let us hope in a years time people in 2008 priority date will also get EAD. It all depends on what we get end of this year. In optimistic mode - for next year they might consider 45k to 50k( with 5 to 10k minimal spill over), they need lot of applications suggested by the OP. And also out of remaining applicants ( i.e. 18k this year and 45 to 50k next year, there will be atleast 2-5% who will not green card due to various reasons, the number will be around 1000-1500 people )

[qesehmk]

grnwtg

Let me try to put some perspective.

In general EB1 category is getting full. This year is abnormal and artificial because of kazarian memo which has created good upside. We do not know if that memo has created any fundamental shift which will impact EB1 demand permanently for future.

EB2 ROW - since EB3 is becoming dark everybody is now filing in EB2. Very few EB3 applicants anymore. EB2 ROW demand is consistently coming in at mark with the full year supply (including this year). We are not sure that the upside we see this year is really there. Next year EB2 ROW will have solid demand because of all the pipelines getting choked up once again.

Given above two things.... EB5 is the ONLY hope for EB2IC. So unless USCIS moves the date aggresively ahead and retrogresses back, Mar 2008 could take 1-2 years to get greened. Notice that I say "greened" and not filing of 485.

In general EB2IC follows a rule of 5 years. (Tell that to me though! Its been 11 years since in this country and 8-9 years since employment). However in my case the employer made mistakes which cost me dearly. Anyway ... but 5 years since filing labor is a general thumb rule. Second thing to remember is that about when economy starts revving up the lawmakers tend to bring bills to release unused numbers from history.

So all in all for you in particular the picture will be ok in 2 years time period. But for many more people its really going to be about economy.

Now regardless where you think you are, my advice is to never stop building your career proactively. Dont wait for that green card to take on challenges in life or in career. Managers know it fully well that you are a hostage and a slave. And they will dump all the shitty jobs on you that nobody else wants to do.




This Post is disheartening for people like me who are in the first week of march '2008. Unable to bear this after living in this country for 10 yrs. Let us hope in a years time people in 2008 priority date will also get EAD. It all depends on what we get end of this year. In optimistic mode - for next year they might consider 45k to 50k( with 5 to 10k minimal spill over), they need lot of applications suggested by the OP. And also out of remaining applicants ( i.e. 18k this year and 45 to 50k next year, there will be atleast 2-5% who will not green card due to various reasons, the number will be around 1000-1500 people )

[TeddyKoochu]

This Post is disheartening for people like me who are in the first week of march '2008. Unable to bear this after living in this country for 10 yrs. Let us hope in a years time people in 2008 priority date will also get EAD. It all depends on what we get end of this year. In optimistic mode - for next year they might consider 45k to 50k( with 5 to 10k minimal spill over), they need lot of applications suggested by the OP. And also out of remaining applicants ( i.e. 18k this year and 45 to 50k next year, there will be atleast 2-5% who will not green card due to various reasons, the number will be around 1000-1500 people )

I can understand your feelings, I tried to put a numerical perspective to things to get a projection where the dates may stand with a 40K buffer, this is actually a bit early in the day the best time would ideally be after the Sep bulletin is done. There will be deviations by a few months here or there I do hope they allow everyone to file for 485 I have myself waited for 4 yrs just for the dates to be current. Lets all keep our spirits high and hope for the best. Also as Q mentions there maybe a chance that the gate is opened much wider to get a larger chunk of applicants which could even be beyond 40K so lets us all hope for the best.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Even-though my approach is conservative, I assume USCIS Policy Memorandum (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf) on EB1-2 is impacting EB2 approvals also, and the i-140 backlog(~36k) may not going to be cleared any sooner.
So, there may be chances for spillover from EB2ROW!!

Here is the excerpt on EB2 from the Memo

"The statutory provision for the Alien of Exceptional Ability immigrant classification at INA 203(b)(2)(A) requires that the alien will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States because of his or her exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business. The alien must also have a job offer from a U.S. employer to provide services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business.5 The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(2) defines exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business as having a degree of expertise significantly above that ordinarily encountered in the sciences, arts, or business. The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(3)(ii) requires that a petition for this immigrant classification must be accompanied by documentation consisting of at least three out of six types of evidence listed in the regulation (e.g., academic record, professional license, membership in professional associations)."

.....
.....
"Policy
In order to promote consistency in decision-making, USCIS officers should use a two-part approach for evaluating evidence submitted in support of all petitions filed for Aliens of Extraordinary Ability, Outstanding Professors or Researchers, and Aliens of Exceptional Ability. USCIS officers should first objectively evaluate each type of evidence submitted to determine if it meets the parameters applicable to that type of evidence described in the regulations (also referred to as “regulatory criteria”). USCIS officers then should consider all of the evidence in totality in making the final merits determination regarding the required high level of expertise for the immigrant classification."
.....
.....

Veni thanks for the details, I have a quick question for you where do you feel are I140 Withdrawals by employers allocated on the dashboard. I can bet that probably 5-10% I140's are eventually withdrawn by employers on the whole this practice is being very consistently followed when somebody leaves the company. The dashboard even though we are using for calculations purpose is more intended for management reporting and if withdrawals are clubbed with completions it helps to show good performance. I what Iam guessing is correct it could skew the projections in our favor withdrawals must be classified wither under denials which I doubt or completions. I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion only thing is that the impact to the employee is negative.

[qesehmk]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?


I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

[kd2008]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?

Q, for EB1, EB2 ROW it would not be a significant number. But for EB2 C&I, yes it would be. Given a 5 yr time frame to get your GC, even with an initial filing in EB2, there is a significant chance that one would change their employers and retain old PD (kinda EB2 to EB2 porting). So I-140 may get withdrawn etc.

I was wondering if Veni and Spec can back test the data for us to know the exact amount. I guess the effect is captured in the multiplier effect from I-140 to I-485. EB2 multiplier is 1.9 I think and EB1 is more like 2.6 etc.

[mpurna77]

This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.

Teddy don't say that....:) My PD is 03 May 07. I missed July fiasco by few hours..got labor approved on Aug 17 2007 in the afternoon..and now again by few days?? I can't take it anymore!!

Q and other guys you are doing a great job on this forum..I left all the forums and just following yours everyday...infact every few hours... for the updates.

I am also in same boat nearly left all immi forums, following this forum and trackit.

Here my veryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy pessimistic view what if scenario,

if any EB2I guys miss their date this year, is they have to wait for another 2 yrs.
Expecting 20k/year spillover.

2002 5000
2003 12110
2004 14426
2005 8529
2006 10726
2007 4606

Total 55397

Hoping 2002 not porting...

Another 20-30% substitute labors

#s will be 37779. if out of all eligible candiates 75% port... its 28348....

If 28348 port being frustrated for years, down the line economy improves they find sources for EB2.

what about EB2I then....

Can you throw your thoughts behind this?

[suninphx]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

Agree with above.

Also can someone tell me whats avg denial rate at I140 stage?

Thanks

[ChampU]

Even though you posted a disclaimer of "verrryyy pessimistic scenario", there is noway that 75% of eligible candidates would port..
When the economy picks up, there definitely would be a rise in EB3-EB2 conversions, less spillover from other EB categories and that thing is something to worry about. But the rising economy also raises the hopes for some legislative relief.

Be positive!

My $0.02..

[tanu_75]

Tanu,

For someone like me who works in a finance domain, there is (A.) no sense of job security (B.) Switching jobs is as common as Charlie Sheen switching broads.. My employer wanted me to file for GC in Feb 2007 but I delayed.. guess what.. I have filed my GC through the same bank and have been passed on for a whole bunch of promotions/growth offers..
Long story short, I have dealt with my demons and have lived through the torture of being the dumbest SOB on the planet.. ..I have spoken at least thrice to Schumer's staffers when he was the torch bearer of the Immigration movement.. have been let down.. spoke to Menendez's staffers..All in the hopes of getting something that is just and something that I truly deserve..

After all efforts have run out, I have no other choice but be optimistic..

Amen to that and good luck. I'm around your PD and need that Kool-aid.

[veni001]

Veni thanks for the details, I have a quick question for you where do you feel are I140 Withdrawals by employers allocated on the dashboard. I can bet that probably 5-10% I140's are eventually withdrawn by employers on the whole this practice is being very consistently followed when somebody leaves the company. The dashboard even though we are using for calculations purpose is more intended for management reporting and if withdrawals are clubbed with completions it helps to show good performance. I what I am guessing is correct it could skew the projections in our favor withdrawals must be classified wither under denials which I doubt or completions. I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion only thing is that the impact to the employee is negative.

Teddy,
I believe USCIS dash board completions include all approvals,withdrawals(after RFE) and Denials. That is why when calculating projections we are taking only 80% of completions from the Dashboard as approvals!

On your questions regarding employers withdrawing i140 after employee leave the company, i do not think those requests are counted towards i140 receipts/completions. Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS due to fraud or misrepresentation one can easily capture that PD with a later (at new i140 stage) petition. So i don't think we need to worry about withdrawal request after i140 approval.

[happyboy]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

Teddy,

I am the best example for forfew of things here
1) Moved from contracting to full time. Even after moving to to FT as i maintained good relations with old consulting company they file my GC application as future employment. Six month after my old employer filed my gc my new company filed gc application.As far as i know i hold two I-140s.
2) Stucked with new employer even after getting new offerer at least 30% better pay
3) Missed 2007 july by two days as my labor went to Atlanta.
4) First labor with 2006 oct priority got denies because of they could't find Microsoft word which mentioned in the reuqirements in the day skills/activities in my profile.

[Gclongwait]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

This is a really good point. I think it would be a big mistake to assume that everyone who is filing a 2nd Perm or I-140 is a porting case. I know atleast a few people in my own company who changed jobs and moved EB2 to EB2 and had to file 2nd Perm. EB2-EB2 could be a size able chunk (50%) of the multiple Perm and I-140 submissions for India.

The timeframe from I-140 approval to GC is 4+ years. Its very likely that many people will change jobs in this.

[veni001]

Q, for EB1, EB2 ROW it would not be a significant number. But for EB2 C&I, yes it would be. Given a 5 yr time frame to get your GC, even with an initial filing in EB2, there is a significant chance that one would change their employers and retain old PD (kinda EB2 to EB2 porting). So I-140 may get withdrawn etc.

I was wondering if Veni and Spec can back test the data for us to know the exact amount. I guess the effect is captured in the multiplier effect from I-140 to I-485. EB2 multiplier is 1.9 I think and EB1 is more like 2.6 etc.

kd2008,
Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS for fraud or misrepresentation, beneficiary can always capture old PD at new i140 stage. So this shouldn't affect our numbers!!

[veni001]

[QUOTE=03May07;2254]

I am also in same boat nearly left all immi forums, following this forum and trackit.

Here my veryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy pessimistic view what if scenario,

if any EB2I guys miss their date this year, is they have to wait for another 2 yrs.
Expecting 20k/year spillover.

2002 5000
2003 12110
2004 14426
2005 8529
2006 10726
2007 4606

Total 55397

Hoping 2002 not porting...

Another 20-30% substitute labors

#s will be 37779. if out of all eligible candiates 75% port... its 28348....

If 28348 port being frustrated for years, down the line economy improves they find sources for EB2.

what about EB2I then....

Can you throw your thoughts behind this?

mpurna77,
Please check post#1233 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29/page50)for worst case scenario calculations.

[mpurna77]

[QUOTE=mpurna77;2269]

mpurna77,
Please check post#1233 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29/page50)for worst case scenario calculations.

Veni,

Thank you nice explanation. Is that cause any movement in EB3 I too?

Is substitute labor EB3 eligible for Eb2 porting? I heard they not eligible.

Thank you.

[ChampU]

I have a general question about the spillover that comes in from Family Based GCs..
Is there a particular criterion/pattern for this spillover? Last year we received about 10k from FB, this year there wont be any from what I read. Is there any reason for this?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
I believe USCIS dash board completions include all approvals,withdrawals(after RFE) and Denials. That is why when calculating projections we are taking only 80% of completions from the Dashboard as approvals!

On your questions regarding employers withdrawing i140 after employee leave the company, i do not think those requests are counted towards i140 receipts/completions. Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS due to fraud or misrepresentation one can easily capture that PD with a later (at new i140 stage) petition. So i don't think we need to worry about withdrawal request after i140 approval.

Veni, I believe that if you are taking 80% as approvals then its pretty good. On another note I see you are now elevated to "GC-PANDIT" status :) Congrats.


This is a really good point. I think it would be a big mistake to assume that everyone who is filing a 2nd Perm or I-140 is a porting case. I know atleast a few people in my own company who changed jobs and moved EB2 to EB2 and had to file 2nd Perm. EB2-EB2 could be a size able chunk (50%) of the multiple Perm and I-140 submissions for India.

The timeframe from I-140 approval to GC is 4+ years. Its very likely that many people will change jobs in this.

You are right that these cases may be confused as porting (Eb3-Eb2).


Teddy,

I am the best example for forfew of things here
1) Moved from contracting to full time. Even after moving to to FT as i maintained good relations with old consulting company they file my GC application as future employment. Six month after my old employer filed my gc my new company filed gc application.As far as i know i hold two I-140s.
2) Stucked with new employer even after getting new offerer at least 30% better pay
3) Missed 2007 july by two days as my labor went to Atlanta.
4) First labor with 2006 oct priority got denies because of they could't find Microsoft word which mentioned in the reuqirements in the day skills/activities in my profile.

Good luck, hope you get to file for 485 and get grened soon.

[qesehmk]

ChampU that in fact is a totally abritrary thing. Just look in the past and you will see so many FB visas wasted within category as well as not spilled over to EB.

p.s. - Theoretically if EB or FB had leftover visas they are supposed to spill into the other category next year. But historically it rarely happened. Otherwise there never was a need for a recapture bill.


I have a general question about the spillover that comes in from Family Based GCs..
Is there a particular criterion/pattern for this spillover? Last year we received about 10k from FB, this year there wont be any from what I read. Is there any reason for this?

[ChampU]

Damn.. that sucks!!

Any stats around the number of visas wasted??

Idhar hum log 1-1 visa ka hisaab jod rahe hain aur udhar woh log aiyyashi kar rahe hain..
Its str8 from a 1980s hindi movie.. father tries to save every penny he can and the son makes visiting dance bars/mujra his daily habit..

[veni001]

Veni, I believe that if you are taking 80% as approvals then its pretty good. On another note I see you are now elevated to "GC-PANDIT" status :) Congrats.



You are right that these cases may be confused as porting (Eb3-Eb2).



Good luck, hope you get to file for 485 and get grened soon.

Q,
Yes, i was wondering about this new level! :)

[veni001]

[QUOTE=veni001;2277]

Veni,

Thank you nice explanation. Is that cause any movement in EB3 I too?

Is substitute labor EB3 eligible for Eb2 porting? I heard they not eligible.

Thank you.

mpurna77,
As that post stated it is a worst case Scenario! The chances of happening that is very minimal.
First: Any elevated level of EB3I-->EB2I porting will stagnate or even retrogress EB2I PD movement in a given year.
Second: Even at that rate of EB3I-->EB2I porting, EB3I may not see very significant movement, mainly due to no spillover to EB3I from any source and limited its annual quota of ~2,800 only.

[mpurna77]

[QUOTE=mpurna77;2278]

mpurna77,
As that post stated it is a worst case Scenario! The chances of happening that is very minimal.
First: Any elevated level of EB3I-->EB2I porting will stagnate or even retrogress EB2I PD movement in a given year.
Second: Even at that rate of EB3I-->EB2I porting, EB3I may not see very significant movement, mainly due to no spillover to EB3I from any source and limited its annual quota of ~2,800 only.

Is EB3 substitute labor eligible for Eb2 porting?

[veni001]

[QUOTE=veni001;2285]

Is EB3 substitute labor eligible for Eb2 porting?

mpurna77,
Irrespective of labor petition one can capture PD from an old approved i140 petition to new i140 petition as long as the old petition is not revoked by USCIS due to Fraud or misrepresentation! Which means the answer is YES.

[mpurna77]

If all these cases already pre-adjudicated, why they are taking so long to just allocate visa number and approve application ??.
They do any checks after your PD is current??

Is there any process again to allocate number?

[veni001]

If all these cases already pre-adjudicated, why they are taking so long to just allocate visa number and approve application ??.
They do any checks after your PD is current??

Is there any process again to allocate number?

The time depends on the number of VISAs available for a particular month(even when SOFAD applied) & USCIS work load, USCIS may have to do a final check before assigning a VISA numbers according to PD(from pre-adjudicated list). There may be instances where USCIS may have to request additional information(Example: Medical reports,since old one expired, employment verification in case of AC21 cases ...etc)

[qesehmk]

Yes .... we added a few ranks!! 200 is pandit, 500 is Guru. 100 is senior member and 30 is member.

Any suggestions for any other ranks?


Q,
Yes, i was wondering about this new level! :)

[veni001]

Yes .... we added a few ranks!! 200 is pandit, 500 is Guru. 100 is senior member and 30 is member.

Any suggestions for any other ranks?

I think we are good for now!

You are going to be Guru in few more days! :):)

[qesehmk]

How convenient! Yes ... this one counts too!:p

You are going to be Guru in few more days! :):)

[tanu_75]

I had a question to the folks who are currently on 485 and hopefully got their GC's recently (still lurking?). I'm interested in stats on the AC21 thing, did USCIS request a follow-up letter before approving GC for employment verification, same similar kind of job etc. Or was there hardly any job related communication from USCIS between 485 and GC? Was it mostly other logistical stuff (EAD, FP's etc.). Even folks who are currently on the cusp (late 2006/early 2007 PD's) can comment on the requests from USCIS so far. This would help in career planning etc. for a bunch of folks here.

[vishnu]

Gurus - reg: the I-485 inventory which shows the EB2 IC pending demand for 2006 and 2007 (till July), does that include dependents too? I'm assuming all dependents at the time of the 'opening of the gates' also filed. But what about ppl who had filed at that time and subsequently got married?

[qesehmk]

That's correct. Dependents are included in the inventory for which 485 was filed.
Gurus - reg: the I-485 inventory which shows the EB2 IC pending demand for 2006 and 2007 (till July), does that include dependents too? I'm assuming all dependents at the time of the 'opening of the gates' also filed. But what about ppl who had filed at that time and subsequently got married?

[soggadu]

That's correct. Dependents are included in the inventory for which 485 was filed.

Couple of questions...

1. How much slipover is/would b used till may end
2. Without taking acct of pwmb , can the spilover numbers b sufficient to clear till 01 aug 07?

[qesehmk]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover :) But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.


Couple of questions...

1. How much slipover is/would b used till may end
2. Without taking acct of pwmb , can the spilover numbers b sufficient to clear till 01 aug 07?

[soggadu]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover :) But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.

Why would they consider pwmb in the slipover when they can't even assign a number before the fiscal year? IMO they need atleast 4-6 months to clear a case with name checks and all... In this scenario... Wouldn't they try to use all slipover and clear till 01 aug rather than waiting for pwmb and waste the numbers? I am not trying to get current with my argument but it looks more sensible to me ...trying to understand their DOS/CIS ways.... Also from April till July end 07 , the numbers are in the range of 5-6k which you said would be considered for pwmb....

[qesehmk]

very good point. Actually agree w you.


Why would they consider pwmb in the slipover when they can't even assign a number before the fiscal year? IMO they need atleast 4-6 months to clear a case with name checks and all... In this scenario... Wouldn't they try to use all slipover and clear till 01 aug rather than waiting for pwmb and waste the numbers? I am not trying to get current with my argument but it looks more sensible to me ...trying to understand their DOS/CIS ways.... Also from April till July end 07 , the numbers are in the range of 5-6k which you said would be considered for pwmb....

[TeluguBidda]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover :) But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.

If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

[qesehmk]

Expecting another 6K from EB1 wouldn't be unrealistic.
Its only a matter of couple of months for you. You should be through then.


If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

[soggadu]

If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

Bidda.... Mark my words.... What ever all the forums might say... What ever the gurus may write.... What ever your past experiences might be.... YOU WILL B CURRENT in JUNE bulletin.... i.e. Be mentally, physically and psychologically prepAred and arrange for any documents if needed by JULY 01.....NO BDY can stop this.... I challenge

[pch053]

very good point. Actually agree w you.

In that case, my feeling is that all PWMB cases from July'06 onwards will only get adjudicated during the next year, i.e. after Sep'11. The earliest July'06 (and onwards) PWMB cases will submitted is 1st June'11 and assuming the turnaround time for I485 approval is greater than 4 months, its very unlikely that those will be approved this year. Also, my hunch is that most of the PWMB cases will have PDs later than Aug'06, since EB2-I PD up to Aug'06 was again current during late 2008. Will there be any change in EB2I movement prediction until Sep'11, if we assume that very few PWMB cases will be approved until Sep'11?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

i must say that soggadu really brought a very good point forward that PWMB can't be prcessed this year. There is no chance for them now.

So that creates an upside of 4K (approx) and make mar-apr 2007 a much more certainty than before. So even if ROW delivers zero. There is a very good possibility that the dates could move into early 2007 regardless of ROW EB2 SOFAD.


In that case, my feeling is that all PWMB cases from July'06 onwards will only get adjudicated during the next year, i.e. after Sep'11. The earliest July'06 (and onwards) PWMB cases will submitted is 1st June'11 and assuming the turnaround time for I485 approval is greater than 4 months, its very unlikely that those will be approved this year. Also, my hunch is that most of the PWMB cases will have PDs later than Aug'06, since EB2-I PD up to Aug'06 was again current during late 2008. Will there be any change in EB2I movement prediction until Sep'11, if we assume that very few PWMB cases will be approved until Sep'11?

Thanks!

[Spectator]

For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

[qesehmk]

A picture is worth a thousand words.


For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

[ChampU]

Quick Question regarding the data from trackitt..

1. What is the source of the data for trackitt?
2. Would an approval (or any stat for that matter) show up in the trackitt if the candidate hasn't registered on trackitt? I have a few friends who got their GCs in the last couple of years but hardly know anything about the immigration forums (Trackitt, IV et. al). Would their numbers show up in trackitt stats?

[mpurna77]

Quick Question regarding the data from trackitt..

1. What is the source of the data for trackitt?
2. Would an approval (or any stat for that matter) show up in the trackitt if the candidate hasn't registered on trackitt? I have a few friends who got their GCs in the last couple of years but hardly know anything about the immigration forums (Trackitt, IV et. al). Would their numbers show up in trackitt stats?

No Trackit data is only of registered users. I believe, That data gives some picture of pattern. But there is some paid option to track. if that gives all data not sure.

[imechanix]

Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.

[Spectator]

Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.
It's not a silly question at all.

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.

It appears some were very lucky and others not so.

I does mean that when we get to May-July 2007, there are probably another 7k people still waiting to file with those PD.

Good luck.

[ChampU]

If that is true, I guess that data can very well be used for trend analysis. But when we are talking absolute numbers, it may not be accurate because we are looking at a very small sub-set of the actual volume.
I wish I could read Chinese or know the Chinese immigration forums and understand whats going on in EB2-C circles. I'm sure they are crunching numbers like us and would love to see what their projections are.

[veni001]

For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

Thanks Spec,
Since most of the EBI&C approvals are from pre-adjudicated once, it shouldn't take long for USCIS assign a number!
Looks like 3/4th of the approvals are happening in the fist half each month!

[veni001]

If that is true, I guess that data can very well be used for trend analysis. But when we are talking absolute numbers, it may not be accurate because we are looking at a very small sub-set of the actual volume.
I wish I could read Chinese or know the Chinese immigration forums and understand whats going on in EB2-C circles. I'm sure they are crunching numbers like us and would love to see what their projections are.

ChampU,
If you know the sites you can use Google translate! :):):)

[imechanix]

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.



Thanks Spec, that answers my qs. It's amazing that USCIS cleared 1,673 EB2-I perm cases in July 2007.

[Gclongwait]

It's not a silly question at all.

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.

It appears some were very lucky and others not so.

I does mean that when we get to May-July 2007, there are probably another 7k people still waiting to file with those PD.

Good luck.


7k seems a bit too much. Even if we equally divide 7K between Apr, May, June , July of '07 that would mean we need to add ~1700 for each month, that would mean each of these months would have had nearly 3K or more filings if there were instantaneous Perm approvals.
Not a single month for entire 2006 or mid 2007 has more than 1881 filings (Dec 2006). I don't think anything would move that far from the mean. I think July 2007 would be the max since many people would have hurried up and filed after seeing it go current. From my personal experience I remember that my company's (at that time) lawyers were prioiritizing I-485's over perms.

[pch053]

I consider myself one of the very lucky ones who were able to file the I485 during the 1 month window; my PD is 11th July'07, got my PERM approval on 2nd Aug'07 and submitted my I485 on 16th Aug (a day before the deadline). I have seen people with similar PDs missing the I485 deadline by a whisker but I do agree that my employer's lawyers and HR folks were fully focusing on I485 submission during the first half of Aug'07.

[Gclongwait]

7k seems a bit too much. Even if we equally divide 7K between Apr, May, June , July of '07 that would mean we need to add ~1700 for each month, that would mean each of these months would have had nearly 3K or more filings if there were instantaneous Perm approvals.
Not a single month for entire 2006 or mid 2007 has more than 1881 filings (Dec 2006). I don't think anything would move that far from the mean. I think July 2007 would be the max since many people would have hurried up and filed after seeing it go current. From my personal experience I remember that my company's (at that time) lawyers were prioiritizing I-485's over perms.

Before someone corrects me, let me correct myself. 7K would be both India & China. Dividing this as 2K China and 5k India , it would still be more than ~2200 filings per mnth for India. Still way above the norm.

[bieber]

gclongwait

may be Spec's 7k number includes dependents. I mean around 3.4k perms will translate into 7k 485s

[leo07]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.



Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.

[Spectator]

To avoid any confusion, 7k is both China and India and does include Dependants at 1.1 additional Dependants per primary I-140 approval.

The number was derived from the % of PERM approvals with Jan-Jul 2007 Priority Dates and the known I-485 backlog.

That % was then applied to the number of PERM with Jan-Jul 2007 PD that were approved after July 2007.

Whilst it is actually 7k for Jan-Jul 2007, the highest concentration is in May-Jul 2007. The actual figures are in posts earlier in this thread.

[TeddyKoochu]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

Leo I did not know that most of the PWMB case generated from Atlanta mine also went there. With regards PWMB's there is a 20% chance that we may get a chance to file for 485 this year but chances of getting GC maybe only if they are able to attach a case number to our cases. Else we may have to wait right till May - Jul 2012 just to file for 485. I think we can only pray, this year for the dates to reach Jul - Aug 2007 this year is a little bit of stretch and diving required at the end its not impossible.

[veni001]

Before someone corrects me, let me correct myself. 7K would be both India & China. Dividing this as 2K China and 5k India , it would still be more than ~2200 filings per month for India. Still way above the norm.

Gclongwait,
2007 got highest number of PERM approvals all across the board!

[hoping4thebest]

I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue :).
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect Uscis to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applicaations - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.


Leo I did not know that most of the PWMB case generated from Atlanta mine also went there. With regards PWMB's there is a 20% chance that we may get a chance to file for 485 this year but chances of getting GC maybe only if they are able to attach a case number to our cases. Else we may have to wait right till May - Jul 2012 just to file for 485. I think we can only pray, this year for the dates to reach Jul - Aug 2007 this year is a little bit of stretch and diving required at the end its not impossible.

[leo07]

I really feel bad for you guys.
...i only wish I had not been that idealistic ...

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

[veni001]

I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue :).
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect USCIS to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applications - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.

hoping4thebest,
Based on what USCIS/DOS have done last year with F2A, there is always possibility, even this year, for EB2I&C advance by an year before retrogress back to April/May 2007 (assuming our predictions are in-line).

[qesehmk]

I agree w you both. Additionally I also feel that joining companies like Infy TCS Wipro.. is not such a bad idea because they no longer are sweat shops. I sometimes get to interact with these companies since they are current or prospective vendors and what I see is that people my age and experience there are running a shop of 1000 2000 people. These companies are fast moving up the value chain into consulting. So joining them after your US MS/MBA isn't such a bad idea!


I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue :).
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect Uscis to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applicaations - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.


100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

[vishnu]

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

[pravara]

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

[imechanix]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

Thanks Leo. That makes sense, my perm was also approved from Atlanta. Hope we get a chance to file I485 this year.

[skpanda]

Same case here...

Been in US for 6 years. Had oppurtunity to file GC in 2006 and 2008 with two different employers (full time positions)... did not file in 2006.. since i was not sure if I wanted to stay in US. In 2008, I was not sure if I would have continued with the same employer for that long.

Now I have a PD of Dec 2010 with a new employer (full time position) and really got serious with GC to get the 7th year extension.

I was not active in these kind of forums and am facing the consequences. I wish I had filed in 2006 and done the PD porting now. Would have had GC in hand by now.

As it appears, I will have to wait atleast until 2014 even to get the EAD. God knows about GC.. may be in 2015 or 2016. Not sure if I want to stay in US that long.. but atleast my PD is locked... just in case...

Anyways... Best of luck to all you folks!
S


--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

[veni001]

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052

[ifaith]

Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?


i must say that soggadu really brought a very good point forward that PWMB can't be prcessed this year. There is no chance for them now.

So that creates an upside of 4K (approx) and make mar-apr 2007 a much more certainty than before. So even if ROW delivers zero. There is a very good possibility that the dates could move into early 2007 regardless of ROW EB2 SOFAD.

[qesehmk]

ifaith, the dates could move in a jerky manner between now and Oct 2011. But after that the date will settle and stay there until Q4 in 2012. As of now my guess is that the dates should move upto Mar-Apr 2007. Now assuming that's what happens. Then while the dates are settled, the PWMBs that have their date current will be processed. However the processing will take its usual time of around 3-9 months after filing 485.


Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?

[Spectator]

vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052
Veni,

I don't quite agree with those figures.

SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

My figures are :

-FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262

[buzzguy]

I am new member here. Q, your comments are very impressive. My PD is around June 2008. What you guys think, when it will become current.
Any chance of happening this year? Or when should I expect some movements?

[soggadu]

I read on trackitt that a guy with PD 2007 June has got mail from NVC to pay $$ for CP... Looks like the dates might move further than our assumptions...

[soggadu]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

[mpurna77]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. ".

8-9 months of wait is with present estimate of demand. by dates moving further forward not sure how demand data will be, for sure most of the forums and analysis expect it should move to Apr-May 2007 by FY 2011. we can all expect and better analyze after July VB is released, coz it can give better picture of Spillover.

[shaumack]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

From the same site that quotes above, it also says

"Please note that NVC sending mail is solely based on the assumption that projected demand would reap in 8-9 months. It does not guarantee that projected demand will be representative of actual demand"

Just adding this for completeness. This can come true as long as USCIS will not see PWMB demand. Once they will see that demand things might slow down little. I just hope that EB2I/C should make as big leap as possible in September 2011.

[ChampU]

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

[gcwait2007]

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.

This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.

[skpanda]

Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

Thanks!
S

[orangeca]

This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.

Terrific Job all the gurus. I have been following this thread to educate myself regarding one of the important things in my life AKA GC.
While we are on this topic, my PD is FEB 2008 and I got an email yesterday from NVC to pay the AOS fees. I checked with my attorney and she said it is because we did leave the option open for CP in case we had to use it while filing I-140. I am not sure what to make out of this as VB date is in OCT 2006, almost 1.5 years to from FEB 2008.

[ChampU]

Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??

[TeddyKoochu]

Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??

Almost everyone has been predicting that the dates should reach atleast April 2007. You can refer to the facts and data section and also post # 1 from qesehmk for details.

[vishnu]

FAQ on the Dept of State website say that NVC asks for payment when the date is current or they think it will be in next SEVERAL months.... would assume that several means around a year I guess...
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3180.html#beneficiary

[03May07]

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

Leo, I was wearing the same shoes as you did back then....After Masters, first 5 years on H1 - 2 fulltime positions - Life was easy...near the end of H1 got processing done with desi shop.
I agree 100% with your suggestion to MS grads, If someone gave me the suggestion back then...there would be a 0% chance that I would agree.....
My Labor was also stuck in Atlanta on 07. Bunch of approvals on trackitt on Aug 15 07, none on Aug 16 and few more+mine on Aug 17 07...will never forget Aug 17!

[srinivasj]

I finished masters in 2005 and waited till 2007 to start GC process..I should have started in 2005 and would have been greened by now..Alas as everyone suggests its never late to start..atleast get GC process going...

[cotes_ashish]

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

[pch053]

Yes, you can retain your PD from your earlier approved I140. I am assuming that you haven't submitted your I485 yet (else you could have ported to another similar job using AC21 provisions); in that case, you have to redo your PERM + I140 with your new employer.

[ChampU]

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

With a PD which is so close to being current, I would wait until my PD is current or at least Sept. 2011 (whichever is earlier).

[cotes_ashish]

Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?

[skpanda]

Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?

Yes.. you will port your new PERM-I140 to your 2007 PD. In my opinion, if you go this route, your GC-in-hand will be delayed by about 1 year (due to new application).
All the best!

[pch053]

Roughly, this is your scenario: if EB2-I movement is sufficient enough during this year, May'07 PD might be approved by Sep'11; else May'07 PD will be approved sometime during first half of 2012 (also consider that you will need ~4 months from I485 submission). If you join a new job and they start your PERM application right away, then your time line might look like: preparing the PERM application, incl. job ad, etc (4 months); PERM approval (2 - 6 months); I140 approval (15 days w/Premium Processing). So, overall it will take around a year or slightly more than that. In the above scenario, you might also concurrently file for I140 and I485 as it is more likely that your PD will be current by then.

[leo07]

cotes_ashish, I know I'm digressing from the purpose of this thread. But, I could not resist posting this suggestion for you--Given an option in your situation, I would not venture such a risk at least until I see all of July,Aug & September 2011 bulletins. Since we are so close. I honestly think folks until August 1st 2007 will be able to file for EAD by September 2011.

Good Luck to all of us.



Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

[angryclubs]

Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

[haripathhi]

@soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan...:) (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

@Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier :)

@ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 :).


Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

[ChampU]

Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

Angryclubs: what is the automated line? Do you have the IV links?
This is great news guys.. hope to file for I485 at least.

[angryclubs]

This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-45.html#post2611476

NVC Details:
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

[ChampU]

This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-45.html#post2611476

NVC Details:
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.


Thanks for the info.
I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.

[soggadu]

Thanks for the info.
I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.



Gang of guru's...

Can we take all this news as a positive sign???? Did it happen anytime in the past that people receive these mails and they get current??

Please share ur exPeriences guys ..... All the full timers... Ask your respective lawyers what this is all about???

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Sometime late today we crossed 200,000 views. I must credit this to numerous people active on this forum who continue to provide valuable pieces of information, churn calculations and provide useful advice to others AND MOST IMPORTANTLY do so in a respectful and friendly manner.

I think that really is the spirit of this forum. Truly appreciate everybody's support. Earlier it was just one or two or three of us. Now I see quite a few doing their own work and contributing. So can't really name everybody and so I will just rest it at that.

Thanks and Hope for the best for this year!!

p.s. - I especially want to thanks 3 folks on this forum who act as administrators in addition to contributing to forums. But since some of them probably want to keep it private, I will not name them. But do want to thank them SPECIAL.

[soggadu]

@soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan...:) (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

@Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier :)

@ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 :).

dude...i am waiting for the good news as much .... lets hope for the best and leave the rest...

[veni001]

Veni,

I don't quite agree with those figures.

SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

My figures are :

-FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262


Spec,
Thanks for the clarification.

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

Thanks!
S

skpanda,
If USCIS/DOS would like to take have more applications at hand by making EB2I&C current,they can do it at any time! Since USCIS got more visibility into EB2I&C demand and also coordinating with DOS on a regular basis to set the cutoff dates, i don't think this is a possibility!

Coming to your VISA wastage question, i think as long as they have more VISAs available than pre-adjudicated cases(chances are minimal) on hand in Q4 they could spill those into EB3.