EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeluguBidda]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q, thank you for sharing the news. I dont doubt your updates one bit (similarly updates from Spec, Teddy and others), but I cannot stop myself asking you if the source is reliable. I am sure, many of us, like I, are very tired of getting hopes up and then the visa bulletin pours super cold water on our optimism / hope.

EDITED: Please disregard my post, obviously I should have read all of your posts. Sorry.

[gcwait2007]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Good news! I hope God is listening to my prayers. Anxiously waiting...

[TeluguBidda]

Q, thank you for sharing the news. I dont doubt your updates one bit (similarly updates from Spec, Teddy and others), but I cannot stop myself asking you if the source is reliable. I am sure, many of us, like I, are very tired of getting hopes up and then the visa bulletin pours super cold water on our optimism / hope.

EDITED: Please disregard my post, obviously I should have read all of your posts. Sorry.

One other thing to note, may be, CO's perspective of "substantial movement" meant about 2 months movement. Whenever we heard of CO's "substantial movement" in the past, it used to be around 2 months or so, wasn't it? So, may be, the CO is saying now that instead of "1 or more weeks" in the June bulletin, it would be "several weeks" (upto 8 weeks).

[srinivasj]

Q,
Does CO means Mr. Charles Oppenheim..?

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q thanks for posting, just praying and hoping for the best. Any movement is welcome.

[Spectator]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.
Q,

I very much hope you are proved correct.

It would make a great deal of sense to move it now, rather than waiting to July.

If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated might be approved within the FY - just.

To be really effective, this strategy would need to move the dates a year.

Still, we've learnt that the term "significant" means different things to different people. The VB said "India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable.", so to CO, even 2 months may well qualify as "significant".

I want to believe (sounds like a quote from the X Files).

[srini1976]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q,

Hopefully this comes true!!! Awesome News!!!


Till Sep 2011 - Looks like its Waka Waka this time for EB2(I). Looking forward to the official confirmation (June 2011 VB release)!!! Game starts now !!!

[medatom]

Have been a long time reader of this forum though never registered ( My bookmark says page 32!!). Very informative and logical discussions. Keep up the good work.
As for my question, hope they make the EB2I current for few months as my PD is Nov 09!!( I know that's very....)

[anuran]

As for my question, hope they make the EB2I current for few months as my PD is Nov 09!!( I know that's very....)

Oooo, I would like that. Mine is Nov 10. :o

On the less lighter side, It does make sense to move the dates by a year now rather than very late. Assuming that they are moving the dates by 6-12 months, it shows that they are now confident of the numbers that they will get and can process. Confidence on the USCIS'/DoS' part is good for us. They may even be believing that hence forth they can move at a steady pace for a long time. I have a distinct feeling that they might have way more spillover numbers than they themselves anticipated.

[qesehmk]

Q,
Does CO means Mr. Charles Oppenheim..?
Yes.


One other thing to note, may be, CO's perspective of "substantial movement" meant about 2 months movement.
I agree. Lets see what happens.




If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated this year - just.
LoL ... of all people spec I didnt expect this from you!

To be really effective, this strategy would need to move the dates a year.
I agree.



Some of us are expecting it to be current... that may seem far fetched. Don't let your imagination run that wild. It just hurts when things don't turn out that good. However I do think that USCIS needs to make it current in the near future and take all applications to replenish their pipeline of 485s.

[gaurav811]

What is the incentive to move the dates by a year given that

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?
2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.

In that case I don't think they will risk moving the PD by a lot in June. My guess is they will do it gradually from June till August and then have a big jump in September. And gradually might mean 2-4 months but not years.

Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?

[anuran]

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?
All of the applications till July 07 are preadjudicated and can be approved in a couple of months.
2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
Outside of the 15000 already with them till Dec'06, they might have to deal with about 12000, at least as per TK's numbers in post #1578.
3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.
Not that high as it seems - 3000-6000 might be a good guess.
Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
I absolutely agree with this.

I entered text in blue.

[skpanda]

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf




Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

[leo07]

(1) Under EB2 there are not tons yet.( actually, at the moment, they have less number of 485s in kitty than available visas for the rest of the year.)
(2) Same explanation as above applies here'
(3) Common adjectives used for porting are High, Extremely high, unbelievable high etc...
These are "relative" in perception. For CO, 6k or 7k of porting could be extremely high, since it covers 2-4 years of EB2I. For us(poor us), 6k to 7k( even 9k) is not much( at least we prepped ourselves that way)

The point I want to drive is, depending upon where you sit in the auditorium the view of hot heroine differs here:)

[hsinghjkaur]

As per our calculations, hence our predictions might be closer to the actual... let's see.

[Spectator]

My take on why it could happen and maybe needs to. I could equally argue why not to do it.

Comments inline.


What is the incentive to move the dates by a year given that

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?

But is it a ton? There was 34k demand for EB2-IC in October 2010 and 33k in May 2011.
At the highest predictions for SOFAD, they get perilously close to exhausting that number, especially if porting is not as high as some people think.
If that happened later in the year, there would be no time to generate cases that could be adjudicated this FY.
In that case, with no demand from EB2, remaining spare visas could be consumed by EB3.

2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
That represents 21k ish for EB2-IC, which probably wouldn't be enough, even with porting numbers added.

3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.
True, but what is the definition of high?

In that case I don't think they will risk moving the PD by a lot in June. My guess is they will do it gradually from June till August and then have a big jump in September. And gradually might mean 2-4 months but not years.
The advantage of moving the dates significantly now is that a future demand stream can be generated that is more than necessary to cover any eventuality in this FY.
If the demand becomes too high, the Cut Off Dates can be retrogressed to control it later in the year. In the meantime, those applications submitted in time can progress to pre-adjudication, ready for when the Cut Off Dates can move forward again.

Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
Never a truer word spoken!!

[gcwait2007]

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf




Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

My earlier thread :)


I feel that the following would be the demand data for June 2011:

Prior to China India Others GT
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,700 10,500 0 14,200
January 1, 2008 9,000 20,300 0 29,300
January 1, 2011 9,100 20,400 100 29,600

In the month of May 2011, 3000 EB2 India and China GCs were issued.

As per estimate, PWMB prior to Jan 1, 2007 is almost zero. The number will not exceed 100 according to some sample data. EB3 to EB2 India upgrade is estimated to be about 20%, for the year 2006. Total number of EB3 pending cases for 2006 is 10,726 and 30% works out to 3300.

To complete 2006 and cross into 2007, SOFAD required = 14200+100+3300 = 17600.

I hope with SOFAD estimated, EB2 India and China would reach March 2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf




Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

I believe that the grand total came down by ~ 4K from the demand data last month so this would imply that 4K cases became current in May and would get approved.

[srinivasj]

EB2 I reduced from 13300 to 10425..

[gcwait2007]

I believe that the grand total came down by ~ 4K from the demand data last month so this would imply that 4K cases became current in May and would get approved.

3K is the correct figure

[TeluguBidda]

My earlier thread :)

Great ! Your calculations have been remarkably accurate and may be you can comment on the EB2I cut-off date?

I am guessing that DOS cannot just move to 01SEP06 as that would cause only 1 month movement for EB-2C. They would probably move both move EB-2IC to 01OCT2006, to ensure enough completions in June?

[anuran]

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf


Almost 3000 down for India alone. That is very reasonable. They will probably process >30k by the end of this FY. And with the anticipated large scale movement, they will carry a load of 20-30k into the next FY. Perhaps that is their goal. Now I want to see the new inventory.

[Spectator]

3K is the correct figure

Add on porting at, say, 0.5k to give a total of 3.5k EB2-I visas assumed to be consumed in May.

[veni001]

gcwait2007,
You demand data prediction was very very close.

[srinivasj]

Based on the deduction of 3K figures..can any one estimate the porting factor..?

[TeddyKoochu]

EB2 I reduced from 13300 to 10425..

Thanks for the exact figures. As per the Jan Inventory the May & June demand for EB2 - I was ~ 2800 and the difference between the 2 figures is 2900 this should suggest that very few new porting cases less than were there.

[skpanda]

Good job...how about guestimating cut off date? I know its a different beast.. but then...


My earlier thread :)

[veni001]

Most users ever online for this forum: Today! (05/10/11)

[gcwait2007]

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Past trend is that 'June month' cut off dates dont move much and normally in line with other months of the quarter (April & May). The news may be contrary to past trend.

As I understand, there is a cut off limit for each quarter for the first 3 quarters. The spillover is calculated based on the 3 quarters and passed on to Retrogressed countries in the last quarter.

I pray to God that the news should come true and every one of us to be greened.

PS: Sorry for pouring cold water on the over heated engine.

[veni001]

Past trend is that 'June month' cut off dates dont move much and normally in line with other months of the quarter (April & May). The news may be contrary to past trend.

I pray to God that the news should come true and every one of us to be greened.

Only true for EB, but June 2010 FB2A advanced by 13 months!

[TeluguBidda]

Past trend is that 'June month' cut off dates dont move much and normally in line with other months of the quarter (April & May). The news may be contrary to past trend.

I pray to God that the news should come true and every one of us to be greened.

Perhaps not true. In 2008, there was 3 months forward movement and in 2009 there was severe retrogression.

[veni001]

Thanks for the exact figures. As per the Jan Inventory the May & June demand for EB2 - I was ~ 2800 and the difference between the 2 figures is 2900 this should suggest that very few new porting cases less than were there.

Teddy,
Yes it could be the case, also EB2ROW demand slightly went up from 100 to 125 for the first time since October 2010.

[ifaith]

3K is the correct figure

Is it possible to co-relate the reduction in demand with how much of the 12K excess numbers released in month of May for the movement of the dates.

Like others is there any prediction for June bulletin?

A

[gcwait2007]

Is it possible to co-relate the reduction in demand with how much of the 12K excess numbers released in month of May for the movement of the dates.

Like others is there any prediction for June bulletin?

A

ifaith,

You would have seen the thread posted by Q. I have been hoping that the news comes true. However, I would also mention that past trend has been different.

There was 3K passed on to EB2 India, which includes the left over of entire quota for the year 2010-11 and some partial spill over. If there is no spill over happening in June 2011, it should continue at the current cut off date. If there is the spillover of minimum assured (from EB1), then EB2 India and China would move into Sept 2006.

[hsinghjkaur]

I guess we will have to wait till tomorrow for any news on VB or probably tonight if Mumbai Consulate still update their website a night in advance as usual.

[Spectator]

If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated might be approved within the FY - just.

LoL ... of all people spec I didnt expect this from you!

A bit of political satire for you.

I believe the CIA call it an Enhanced Motivational Technique.

[gcwait2007]

A bit of political satire for you.

I believe the CIA call it an Enhanced Motivational Technique.

As per Arthasastra written by Kaudilya (Chanakya), it is 'sanman-dana-bheda-Dandam' for motivating a person to complete the job.

Spec's technique is part of Dandam :)


PS:
The strategies of 'getting things done' are:

1.Sanman - Appeasement, non-aggression pact
2.Danda - Strength, punishment
3.Dana - Gift, bribery
4.Bheda - Divide, split, separating opposition
5.Maya - Illusion, deceit
6.Upeksha - Ignoring the enemy
7.Indrajala - Faking military strength

[gcseeker]

Lol looks like everyone is in a jovial mood.Good quote gcwait and nice info.

Not to be a grammar nazi or anything ( the first technique is Sama ) . Sanman still can work because it can denote bestowing gifts. Sama is the quality of equanimity or non aggression or balance.

USCIS seems to be using all of them

1.Sama - Appeasement, non-aggression pact --- USCIS gets our hopes up once in a while with encouraging statements by Consular officers.
2.Danda - Strength, punishment------ Sure they punish us with long retrogression and head scratching data
3.Dana - Gift, bribery----------------- They will use tiny spillovers from other categories.
4.Bheda - Divide, split, separating opposition ---- Country wise quota is perfect for Bheda.
5.Maya - Illusion, deceit------------------ Smoke and mirror announcements of better processing and upgrading systems.
6.Upeksha - Ignoring the enemy----- Perfect behaviour by USCIS ...dont listen to any genuine demands for improving the system.
7.Indrajala - Faking military strength -------------- Appear before congress and state we have all the muscle required to process the numbers blah blah blah...

:):) Anywaz before someone shouts at me for diverting the topic...Keep the good spirits flowing. May tomorrow be the day for you guys with the Visa bulletin shooting all the way to April 2007.


As per Arthasastra written by Kaudilya (Chanakya), it is 'sanman-dana-bheda-Dandam' for motivating a person to complete the job.

Spec's technique is part of Dandam :)


PS:
The strategies of 'getting things done' are:

1.Sanman - Appeasement, non-aggression pact
2.Danda - Strength, punishment
3.Dana - Gift, bribery
4.Bheda - Divide, split, separating opposition
5.Maya - Illusion, deceit
6.Upeksha - Ignoring the enemy
7.Indrajala - Faking military strength

[skpanda]

Obama's (Whitehouse's) updates on Immigration Reforms.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/immigration_blueprint.pdf

Refer to pages 23-26

Excerpt from page 25 -

"Further, by addressing the backlogs in the employment based immigration system and reforming country caps, we can better enable immigrants to contribute to our future growth and competitiveness."

Excerpt from Page 26 -

"Making reforms to the existing employment- and family-based immigration system, including exempting immediate relatives of U.S. citizens from annual caps placed on legal immigration, and changing the categories and per country caps put in place to ensure successful high-skilled immigrants are able to remain in the U.S. permanently and U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents are able to reunite with their families more quickly;"

I know that Immigration Reforms have been on the table for a decacde or so... but things may change.

Thanks to QuintonBermuda from IV.

[veni001]

Obama's (Whitehouse's) updates on Immigration Reforms.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/immigration_blueprint.pdf

Refer to pages 23-26

Excerpt from page 25 -

"Further, by addressing the backlogs in the employment based immigration system and reforming country caps, we can better enable immigrants to contribute to our future growth and competitiveness."

Excerpt from Page 26 -

"Making reforms to the existing employment- and family-based immigration system, including exempting immediate relatives of U.S. citizens from annual caps placed on legal immigration, and changing the categories and per country caps put in place to ensure successful high-skilled immigrants are able to remain in the U.S. permanently and U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents are able to reunite with their families more quickly;"

I know that Immigration Reforms have been on the table for a decacde or so... but things may change.

Immigration reform surges before every election campaign! Chances for anything dramatic happening during this term ( by 2012) is none!

[qesehmk]

skpanda, I think it is critical that any serious immigration reform must address country caps. They are the cause of CHRONIC backlogs. Besides they are unjust especially for people from India China.
p.s. - thanks for attributing the credit to the source.

Obama's (Whitehouse's) updates on Immigration Reforms.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/immigration_blueprint.pdf

Refer to pages 23-26

Excerpt from page 25 -

"Further, by addressing the backlogs in the employment based immigration system and reforming country caps, we can better enable immigrants to contribute to our future growth and competitiveness."

....

Thanks to QuintonBermuda from IV.


Immigration reform surges before every election campaign! Chances for anything dramatic happening during this term ( by 2012) is none!
As much as the idea of immigration reform is romantic.... it is a sad truth that its a political suicide for any party to embrace it.

[leo07]

I agree that this new mantra of Obama is just a political posture. Just another gimmick to alienate republicans from immigrants.

However, in the wake of recent changes in political field -- republicans have much less to lose if they call BO's bluff this time around. IMHO, it'll NOT get through, but could make immigrants move to the edge of their seats.

[Spectator]

The document lacks anything substantive and is therefore just so many words.

The only concrete proposal for EB is:

Encouraging foreign students to stay in the U.S. and contribute to our economy by stapling a green card to the diplomas of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), PhDs and select STEM Masters Degrees students so that they will stay, contribute to the American economy, and become Americans over time
but even that doesn't say that they would be extra visas.

The only solution for EB is a substantial rise in the number of available visas, either directly, or through exempting dependants from the numerical limitations.

If that were done and previously wasted visas were recaptured to deal with the current backlog, then the per Country limitation would no longer be an issue, nor would there be a rationale for its existence.

Changing that in isolation just shifts who is backlogged, but does not reduce the total numbers going forward.

Personally, I would also scrap F3 and F4, redistributing the numbers to EB. In doing that, I would also change CSPA, so that the child's age is locked at time of submission of the I-140. That would ensure that inadvertent ageing out becomes virtually impossible and not related to retrogression or processing inefficiencies.

[haripathhi]

Well said Spec! As usual, you nailed it with your prognosis :)


The document lacks anything substantive and is therefore just so many words.

The only concrete proposal for EB is:

but even that doesn't say that they would be extra visas.

The only solution for EB is a substantial rise in the number of available visas, either directly, or through exempting dependants from the numerical limitations.

If that were done and previously wasted visas were recaptured to deal with the current backlog, then the per Country limitation would no longer be an issue, nor would there be a rationale for its existence.

Changing that in isolation just shifts who is backlogged, but does not reduce the total numbers going forward.

Personally, I would also scrap F3 and F4, redistributing the numbers to EB. In doing that, I would also change CSPA, so that the child's age is locked at time of submission of the I-140. That would ensure that inadvertent ageing out becomes virtually impossible and not related to retrogression or processing inefficiencies.

[Spectator]

Well said Spec! As usual, you nailed it with your prognosis :)
It is just a personal opinion.

It's also a very emotive subject that causes untold hurt to people running into 6 figures and people are rightly upset by the effects.

I respect people's right to have a differing opinion.

I just think we need something more than a band-aid, however appealing it might be.

If the community wants to fight for EB rights, it should be for something that benefits everybody and actually fixes the broken system.

Unity of cause will not be achieved otherwise, which is what is badly needed.

Enough of the philosophising, I have said enough. Something similar caused enough hurt last time and I have no wish to repeat it.

[pravara]

Guys, I have to commend the respect the forum members got for each other. I chanced upon this forum, as I was looking for EB2 predictions and there is no other outlet better than this.

Also, thank you for the member who posted an encouraging news today. Lets home the priority dates for all categories moves forward significantly.

[skpanda]

Q, Spec or others..
There is no Demand Data or inventory after July 2007. Is there any way that we can estimate (educated guess) the EB2 cases after July 2007?

I think we can use PERM data and probably I140 to estimate this. However, I do not know where to find this information.

If anybody has already done the estimate please share it with me. Otherwise, if you can let me know where I can find the above information, I will dig in and share my analysis with this group.

Thanks in advance.
S

PS: Reason why I want this is to determine if EB2I will be current in near future (2011/12/13) assuming we will get same kind of spillover for next 2 or 3 years.

[veni001]

Q, Spec or others..
There is no Demand Data or inventory after July 2007. Is there any way that we can estimate (educated guess) the EB2 cases after July 2007?

I think we can use PERM data and probably I140 to estimate this. However, I do not know where to find this information.

If anybody has already done the estimate please share it with me. Otherwise, if you can let me know where I can find the above information, I will dig in and share my analysis with this group.

Thanks in advance.
S

PS: Reason why I want this is to determine if EB2I will be current in near future (2011/12/13) assuming we will get same kind of spillover for next 2 or 3 years.

skpanda,
This was posted earlier but i am posting here again.
Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007 - Total 14.2k

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

Similarly EBC got 3.2k for 2007, so totaling 17.4k( 80% will be EB2 ~=14k) waiting with PD until DEC 2007

[skpanda]

Thanks Veni!

I have two questions:

a. In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?
b. Why do you say at the end waiting with PD until DEC 2007. I was hoping to get the demand till say end of 2010 (PD until DEC 2010).

However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.

I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.

All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.



skpanda,
This was posted earlier but i am posting here again.
Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007 - Total 14.2k

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

Similarly EBC got 3.2k for 2007, so totaling 17.4k( 80% will be EB2 ~=14k) waiting with PD until DEC 2007

[veni001]

skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

[kd2008]

Thanks Veni!

I do have a question - In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?

However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.

I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.

All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.

I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.

[skpanda]

skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

Thanks... I got the information I was looking for...so there are around 100K people who filed/approved PERM during 2007-2011 (2 quarters). Ofcourse not all of them are EB2, not all of them will file I485 and we have to consider the family factor of 2+.


I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.

Sorry.. may be I was not clear in my question. I wanted to estimate the demand after July 2007 since DOS does not have that information. I have the information.

Thanks to both of you!
S

[veni001]

Duplicate post

[veni001]

Thanks Veni!

I have two questions:

a. In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?
b. Why do you say at the end waiting with PD until DEC 2007. I was hoping to get the demand till say end of 2010 (PD until DEC 2010).

However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.

I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.

All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.

Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure data, and PD based on Calender Year.

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

At least 70.0k out of 86.3k will be EB2, you can do the math now!

[skpanda]

Thanks! Yes.. numbers are not promising...

Wonder why people keep saying.. demand was low during 2008/2009/2010. :)


skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations


I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.


Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure data, and PD based on Calender Year.

EB- INDIA
PD 2007 (after July 2007) - 14.2k
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD 2007 (after July 2007) - 3.2k
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

At least 70.0k out of 86.3k will be EB2, you can do the math now!

[veni001]

Thanks! Yes.. numbers are not promising...

Wonder why people keep saying.. demand was low during 2008/2009/2010. :)

skpanda,
The reason is people are only looking at PERM approvals by FY and not looking at CY numbers.

Just to give you an Example: 10.3k out of 11.3k EBI PERM certifications in FY 2009 are with PD 2008!

[hsinghjkaur]

Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night :(

[soggadu]

Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night :(

Singh ji...tension na lo yaara.... your's will be definitely current...

[qesehmk]

"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.


Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night :(

[tanu_75]

"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.

good riddance. as if the suspense wasn't bad enough, the idiot in the consulate sure sent a few to the ER with his own bulletins.

[gcseeker]

Lol Hilarious comment.Thanks for the laugh ..needed that one.


good riddance. as if the suspense wasn't bad enough, the idiot in the consulate sure sent a few to the ER with his own bulletins.

[krishnav]

So, this takes out the option of dates made current then. This is probably the second time in the last 3-4 months that something like this happened.


"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I heard that the Mumbai Consulate is actually closed for building repairs so there is an advisory to folks to take appointments elsewhere. I did however notice that their page was updated for last month. In today’s internet age it would be much better to redirect everyone to the DOS page itself to see the VB and prevent occurrence of such errors this way there is a single point of information. However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better. Good luck to us all.

[qesehmk]

Teddy
Agar yeh sach hain to tumhare munh mein haldiram ki dukan :)

...However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better.

[veni001]

Friends I heard that the Mumbai Consulate is actually closed for building repairs so there is an advisory to folks to take appointments elsewhere. I did however notice that their page was updated for last month. In today’s internet age it would be much better to redirect everyone to the DOS page itself to see the VB and prevent occurrence of such errors this way there is a single point of information. However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better. Good luck to us all.

Teddy,
DOS maintains/updates all usconsulate.gov websites!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy
Agar yeh sach hain to tumhare munh mein haldiram ki dukan :)

Thanks, I think the latest it can get is Friday the 13th. On a lighter note 13th has been my lucky number my PD is late Jul 2007 so if gets current (Which is extremely far fetched) after 4 years all PWMB's will have a reason to be happy.


Teddy,
DOS maintains/updates all usconsulate.gov websites!

That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

[veni001]

Thanks, I think the latest it can get is Friday the 13th. On a lighter note 13th has been my lucky number my PD is late Jul 2007 so if gets current (Which is extremely far fetched) after 4 years all PWMB's will have a reason to be happy.



That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

Teddy,
I Agree!

[skpanda]

Agreed... having a central location is always better and will avoid errors/confusion.




That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

[srinivasj]

visa bulletin never came out later than 11th of each month..so it should come out today..

[usernameone7]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.

**EDIT - This question was for veni001, who posted the Post-July2007 PERM fillings.

[nijor.deha]

Hi All

I am new to this forum.My priority date is June 2008.My wife is also working on H1B and she is nt processed her GC expecting that we will get EAD by 2012.Her H1B is valid till dec 2012.Is expect EAD by 2012 is too optimistic?

Since I am new to this forum I didnt understand may terminology.

Thanks a lot for good work.

[hsinghjkaur]

Q's reliable source mentioned that the VB should be out latest by today. Even though I agree with Teddy that historically the later the better but if it doesn't come out today, then one criteria in Q's news will be wrong which will cool down all the excitement.

I really hope that it is out today and Q's information holds true (even if significant can mean different for different people).

[veni001]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.

PERM Case numbers are assigned based on Julian date they are received at DOL.

Example:
PERM Case# A-08255-86100
This is a 2008 PERM application filed on 255 day of the year with DOL Atlanta office

Check this out
http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/boxCasePopUpCaseNumbers.htm

[Spectator]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.
The PD is contained within the case number.

Take a typical case number - A-09147-47047

The PD is the 5 digits following A- in Julian Date format.

The first 2 digits are the year, followed by the day of the year (Jan 1 = 001).

So this means the 147th day of 2009, or May 27, 2009.

[veni001]

Hi All

I am new to this forum.My priority date is June 2008.My wife is also working on H1B and she is nt processed her GC expecting that we will get EAD by 2012.Her H1B is valid till dec 2012.Is expect EAD by 2012 is too optimistic?

Since I am new to this forum I didnt understand may terminology.

Thanks a lot for good work.

nijor.deha,

It is always advisable to start PERM process at-least!. Don't count on predictions to come true to rescue your(your spouse) situation!

Please read first page of this thread to know more about the terminology being used on this forum and other similar forums.

[veni001]

Friends,
Please be patient until tomorrow, if not Friday!

[usernameone7]

The PD is contained within the case number.

Take a typical case number - A-09147-47047

The PD is the 5 digits following A- in Julian Date format.

The first 2 digits are the year, followed by the day of the year (Jan 1 = 001).

So this means the 147th day of 2009, or May 27, 2009.

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

[veni001]

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

Yes, if it is not a leaf year :)

If you want PERM data look at FACTS AND DATA thread.

[skpanda]

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

Try this... u can put your priority date into the box and it will tell you how many people are before you.

http://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker/uscis-pending-i485-data.php

Note that Inventory/Demand is reflected only till July 2007. There are many other factors such as People before and after July 2007 who have not yet filed I485. So if your PD is after july 2007 you cannot estimate the number of people before you for sure. In addition, you will have to take into consideration that each application may take atleast 2+ visa numbers (for family)

You can also use the PERM data after July 2007 to estimate but it will be too many variables to put in and the estimate will have large margin of error in my opinion!

[anuran]

There is also one at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com. I believe that takes into account the inventory data + perm data + guesstimate of dependents.

[veni001]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

Q,
Spec clarified me on this, when we are crunching the numbers. DOL uses Calender Year (CY) date while assigning case number for PERM/LCA.

[usernameone7]

Try this... u can put your priority date into the box and it will tell you how many people are before you.

http://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker/uscis-pending-i485-data.php

Note that Inventory/Demand is reflected only till July 2007. They are many other factors such as People before and after July 2007 that have not yet filed I485. So if your PD is after july 2007 you cannot say it for sure. In addition, you will have to take into consideration that each application may take upto 2+ visa numbers (for family)

You can also use the PERM data after July 2007 to estimate but it will be too many variables to put in and the estimate will have large margin of error in my opinion!

I think that website is based on the inventory data. I spoke to couple of my friends and their priority date is early 2008 but the case # is A-07XXX-XXXXX. Lets forget about the case number to priority date thing.

My priority date is early 2008. So If I combine all the PERM disclosure date (i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009,2010) and do a query where decision date is greater than say August 18, 2007 and count all the records that start with A-07XXX and multiple by 2.1 and add it to the total pending numbers from the inventory data, should give me my answer, correct? I know I need to assume some % of EB3 vs EB2 and porting % and denial %.

[skpanda]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

I think the PD dates are calender year and not Fiscal.

So in the example A-09147-47047

09147 - should be 27th may 2009.

[veni001]

Duplicate post! deleted.

[veni001]

Q,
If you would like you can post the table from Post#1387 for i-140 data under FACTS AND DATA.

[veni001]

I think that website is based on the inventory data. I spoke to couple of my friends and their priority date is early 2008 but the case # is A-07XXX-XXXXX. Lets forget about the case number to priority date thing.

My priority date is early 2008. So If I combine all the PERM disclosure date (i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009,2010) and do a query where decision date is greater than say August 18, 2007 and count all the records that start with A-07XXX and multiple by 2.1 and add it to the total pending numbers from the inventory data, should give me my answer, correct? I know I need to assume some % of EB3 vs EB2 and porting % and denial %.

usernameone7,
You have the data on this forum (Please check post #1642), no need to crunch it again!

[qesehmk]

Q,
Spec clarified me on this, when we are crunching the numbers. DOL uses Calender Year (CY) date while assigning case number for PERM/LCA.
Thanks. Deleted wrong post.


Q,
If you would like you can post the table from Post#1387 for i-140 data under FACTS AND DATA.
DONE. Thanks Veni.

[veni001]

Thanks. Deleted wrong post.


Veni, I have already posted your last data under FACTS and DATA. Has something changed?

Q,
You may want to delete the language and just have the table, your call!

[usernameone7]

usernameone7,
You have the data on this forum (Please check post #1642), no need to crunch it again!
Yes and that post is making me nervous. So I decided to recalculate myself for my satisfaction, hope you understand.

Even if the 365th date is Sep 30, I am still not able to convert my case # to priority date. But as I said, I am ignoring that and picking up all the cases prior to A-08XXX.

[qesehmk]

Veni please check your private messages.
Q,
You may want to delete the language and just have the table, your call!

[gaurav811]

My PD is Nov 1st 2007 EB2. I am planning to change job now and restart GC and since its a 1.5 year contract I will have to take a calculated gamble. I will need to get the GC before my contract expires. I am also trying to predict when my PD will become current.

Based on calculations from senior members(Special thanks to gcwait2007, veni001 and qesehmk)

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

and


- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

So as per above,
the current demand with PD before Jan 1,2008 = 29,425
People with approved PERM before Dec 1, 2007 = 14206-1928 = 12,278
Assuming 6k + 6k = 12k for EB3->EB2 porting with PD before Dec,2007

Total = 30+12+12 = 54

Assuming 30k spillover this year and next......my Nov 1,2007 date should be current by Sept, 2008.

Is this a fair calculation ? I know, I might have made some poor assumptions in above calculations. Please critique me so I can learn and make a sound decision.
Thanks !

[veni001]

My PD is Nov 1st 2007 EB2. I am planning to change job now and restart GC and since its a 1.5 year contract I will have to take a calculated gamble. I will need to get the GC before my contract expires. I am also trying to predict when my PD will become current.

Based on calculations from senior members(Special thanks to gcwait2007, veni001 and qesehmk)

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

and


- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

So as per above,
the current demand with PD before Jan 1,2008 = 29,425
People with approved PERM before Dec 1, 2007 = 14206-1928 = 12,278
Assuming 6k + 6k = 12k for EB3->EB2 porting with PD before Dec,2007

Total = 30+12+12 = 54

Assuming 30k spillover this year and next......my Nov 1,2007 date should be current by Sept, 2008.

Is this a fair calculation ? I know, I might have made some poor assumptions in above calculations. Please critique me so I can learn and make a sound decision.
Thanks !

gaurav811,
I believe you mean Sept 2012. As you stated above it is a gamble, if we assume the same amount of spillover next year, you will definitely get a chance to file for i-485 (again assuming you will get new PERM/i-140 filed with EB2 requirements by your new employer, recapture old PD). But the catch is once dates pass July 2007 then USCIS will see surge in applications and DOS may pull EB2(I&C) dates back, and if 180 days is not passed(after filing your i-485) before your contract expires you may not be able to use AC21 to move to a different employer.

Also we do not know how EB1,EB2ROW and porting(?) demand look like next year(economy will be a factor), so it will be be tough at this time to to predict!

[Spectator]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

Q,

That's an excellent thought. It didn't escape me either.

There seems to be a convention that the Julian Date format uses the Calendar Year.

I did originally test a start date of October 1st as well. When I did so, the minimum Certification time became 93 days instead of 1, so I became convinced that DOL also use the CY.

I seem to remember some discussions about NVC where receipt numbers used Julian Date + 500 for some reason. I don't know if that is still the case.

[gaurav811]

veni001......you are good. Yes I did meant Sept 2012. I couldn't have summarized my situation better. Risk is I will have to use PERM filed for more than 365 days and PD not current to change to a different employer after contract ends. Will again have to restart GC process with the third employer. The salary raise on switching now is pretty good but the risks of doing GC twice and finding a new employer after 1.5 year is also high. Damn this GC man.....have to sit at same employer for 7 years. Not learning much. Career is getting F****d.

Anyways, sorry for the rant. Thanks a lot for the advice.

[Spectator]

Yes and that post is making me nervous. So I decided to recalculate myself for my satisfaction, hope you understand.

Even if the 365th date is Sep 30, I am still not able to convert my case # to priority date. But as I said, I am ignoring that and picking up all the cases prior to A-08XXX.
usernameone7,

If you post your A-08XXX number, I'd be happy to look at it. It won't compromise your privacy, if you don't post the last 5 digits of the case number.

You can find a Julian Calendar for both ordinary and Leap Years here: http://landdb1.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/calendar.html Maybe that will help.

[veni001]

Q,

That's an excellent thought. It didn't escape me either.

There seems to be a convention that the Julian Date format uses the Calendar Year.

I did originally test a start date of October 1st as well. When I did so, the minimum Certification time became 93 days instead of 1, so I became convinced that DOL also use the CY.

I seem to remember some discussions about NVC where receipt numbers used Julian Date + 500 for some reason. I don't know if that is still the case.

Spec,
Don't you think the PERM data for PD2007 (FY-CY Table) confirms that the date used is indeed CY!

[Spectator]

veni,

I checked only when I started doing the conversion. Everything else since that time has only confirmed it.

I have absolutely no doubts, but Q raised a fair point and I wanted everybody to understand that FY vs. CY was indeed investigated.

[gcseeker]

Gaurav

I am in a similar situation with PD EB2I Nov 2007 and faced with a similar situation except do not have an expiring contract.If I may suggest something go ahead and accept the offer you have currently.I too strongly beleive just like Veni suggested USCIS will pull back the numbers after July 2007 is breached. You can take the pay hike , work at a different place , learn something new and shift to a new employer in 2013 and start your gc process .By that time your date should be definetly definetly current and it will happen much quicker because you can get things done concurrently. Also your work exp would have improved along the way.

That way you will have not compromised your career growth due to the gc decision.

If you do decide not to change the downside will be you will be stuck with the same job without an hike and also no guarantee of an gc.You will not be able to accept promotions at the same job and (god forbid ) if there is an layoff at your place ...anyhow you will be forced to restart the process all over again.Even if you barely manage to file the 485 in Sep 2012 you will have to hang around for six more months effectively stagnating your career well into 2013.

Again it is a very personal decision.Just looking at the numbers you calculated the best case estimate for Nov 2007 seems to be sep 2012 assuming the 30K spillover...if things change it will be even worse....you have to hold the current job then till god knows 2014 ?.....




veni001......you are good. Yes I did meant Sept 2012. I couldn't have summarized my situation better. Risk is I will have to use PERM filed for more than 365 days and PD not current to change to a different employer after contract ends. Will again have to restart GC process with the third employer. The salary raise on switching now is pretty good but the risks of doing GC twice and finding a new employer after 1.5 year is also high. Damn this GC man.....have to sit at same employer for 7 years. Not learning much. Career is getting F****d.

Anyways, sorry for the rant. Thanks a lot for the advice.

[veni001]

veni,

I checked only when I started doing the conversion. Everything else since that time has only confirmed it.

I have absolutely no doubts, but Q raised a fair point and I wanted everybody to understand that FY vs. CY was indeed investigated.

Thanks Spec

[ravisekhar]

As a data point for the issue raised by usernameone7. Here are my GC details hope it will be usefull . My priority date is Jan 10th 2008 and ETA Case Number is A-07354-xxxxx.

[veni001]

As a data point for the issue raised by usernameone7. Here are my GC details hope it will be usefull . My priority date is Jan 10th 2008 and ETA Case Number is A-07354-xxxxx.

ravisekhar,
Is JAN 10, 2008 is the PD on your approved i-140? Based on the PERM case # you have provided it should be DEC 20, 2007!

[tonyromo]

Even mine does not match the calculation. My priority date is Nov 2nd 2009 and Case# is A-09285-. Somehow the difference is 21 days and is same as ravisekhar

[veni001]

Even mine does not match the calculation. My priority date is Nov 2nd 2009 and Case# is A-09285-. Somehow the difference is 21 days and is same as ravisekhar

Interesting!!
Looks like 21 is a factor! any other?

[Spectator]

Thanks for your inputs on the PDs vs. case number - very interesting.

[gaurav811]

Gaurav

I am in a similar situation with PD EB2I Nov 2007 and faced with a similar situation except do not have an expiring contract.If I may suggest something go ahead and accept the offer you have currently.I too strongly beleive just like Veni suggested USCIS will pull back the numbers after July 2007 is breached. You can take the pay hike , work at a different place , learn something new and shift to a new employer in 2013 and start your gc process .By that time your date should be definetly definetly current and it will happen much quicker because you can get things done concurrently. Also your work exp would have improved along the way.

That way you will have not compromised your career growth due to the gc decision.

If you do decide not to change the downside will be you will be stuck with the same job without an hike and also no guarantee of an gc.You will not be able to accept promotions at the same job and (god forbid ) if there is an layoff at your place ...anyhow you will be forced to restart the process all over again.Even if you barely manage to file the 485 in Sep 2012 you will have to hang around for six more months effectively stagnating your career well into 2013.

Again it is a very personal decision.Just looking at the numbers you calculated the best case estimate for Nov 2007 seems to be sep 2012 assuming the 30K spillover...if things change it will be even worse....you have to hold the current job then till god knows 2014 ?.....

Thanks gcseeker. I will send you a personal message so that I don't distract this forum from the main topic.

[kd2008]

I don't know if you guys paid any attention when your PERM was prepared/filed. I did follow up on each step. There is a 30 day quite period after the all the recruitment efforts. Sometime during this period the attorney goes to the online PERM efile website and fills out your application. The day your application is created is reflected in your case number. So case created on Dec 20th of 2007 gets the number A-07354-xxxxx. When 30 day quite period is over, the attorney simply hits the submit button. That day is your PD. Hence the PD is Jan 10th 2008 which was when the attorney hit the submit button.

[qesehmk]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

[gcwait2007]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

'Significant' is the most important part of that news, not the time line.

[Spectator]

I don't know if you guys paid any attention when your PERM was prepared/filed. I did follow up on each step. There is a 30 day quite period after the all the recruitment efforts. Sometime during this period the attorney goes to the online PERM efile website and fills out your application. The day your application is created is reflected in your case number. So case created on Dec 20th of 2007 gets the number A-07354-xxxxx. When 30 day quite period is over, the attorney simply hits the submit button. That day is your PD. Hence the PD is Jan 10th 2008 which was when the attorney hit the submit button.
Thanks kd, that is great information - you clearly understand the system very well indeed.

It perfectly explains the discrepancy.

I don't know what other people think, but it probably doesn't significantly alter the analysis done to date. It shifts the numbers a little later than perhaps we thought, but only potentially from one month to the next. Much of the difference will just cancel out anyway.

I did analyze the FY2006 data, which does have a Received field, although some of the results were a bit strange. I have become quite used to imperfect data from DOL.

For Certified cases, it appeared that about a third of dates match exactly. The average difference was 15 days and the median difference was 4 days. Those figures appear to be in line with kd's explanation.

[qesehmk]

'Significant' is the most important part of that news, not the time line. Agree.


Thanks kd, that is great information - you clearly understand the system very well indeed.

It perfectly explains the discrepancy.

I don't know what other people think, but it probably doesn't significantly alter the analysis done to date. It shifts the numbers a little later than perhaps we thought, but only potentially from one month to the next. Much of the difference will just cancel out anyway.

I did analyze the FY2006 data, which does have a Received field, although some of the results were a bit strange. I have become quite used to imperfect data from DOL.

For Certified cases, it appeared that about a third of dates match exactly. The average difference was 15 days and the median difference was 4 days. Those figures appear to be in line with kd's explanation.
Agree. Glad we now know definitively that its CY.

[pravara]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

--> As someone pointed out, its not when the bulletin is out, but the message it carries. If that 'significant' bit turns out to be a dud, then we can be more careful w.r.t the sources. Nevertheless, it was a nice dream last night :) Thanks.

[srinivasj]

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

[hsinghjkaur]

I guess the movement is still considered significant and at this rate, we should definately be in 2007 in July/August bulletin.

[veni001]

June 2011 VB out, updated on Mumbai consulate website
EB2I - 15OCT2006 (15 weeks)
EB3I - 22APR2002 ( 1 week)

Link...
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[veni001]

I guess the movement is still considered significant and at this rate, we should definately be in 2007 in July/August bulletin.
Let's see if they throw any prediction in the official VB, DOS/USCIS only need about 5K more to move EB2I&C to 01JAN2007

[veni001]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

Q,
You are not wrong,
1. VISA Bulletin is out today ( at least on Mumbai Consulate website)
2. 15 weeks of EB2I forward movement (about 6k VISAS) is indeed significant for USCIS.

Looks like almost 10.0k out of 12.0k EB1 spillover from first 6 months is absorbed by EB2I.

My be DOS/USCIS will update the official Visa Bulletin saying that the porting is not as high as they expected !!!

[veni001]

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

ooh you beat me :) while i was counting the number of weeks advanced!

[qesehmk]

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

[veni001]

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

Q,
Good! Very good.
Based on 01-05-2011 inventory EB2I&C known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007 is about 20.0K, I am very positive EB1 will yield some more for final quarter! Let's see what actual VB has to say!

[srinivasj]

Q,
if they knew only 12k would be available they could have waited for the last quarter to move the dates right..?

[hsinghjkaur]

Thanks Q for the information. These couple of months are turning to be harder than the previous 5 years wait.

[qesehmk]

Q,
if they knew only 12k would be available they could have waited for the last quarter to move the dates right..?
srini, my hunch is you are right. But once bitten twice shy is what my condition is after last years PERM cleanup which made me miss my prediction. So lets cross the fingers.


Thanks Q for the information. These couple of months are turning to be harder than the previous 5 years wait.
I can perfectly understand. I am in the same boat like you and everybody else here. The career getting hurt left and right. Underpaid and asked to do super-impossible tasks. Hopefully the misery will end this year.


Q,
Based on 01-05-2011 inventory EB2I&C known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007 is about 20.0K, I am very positive EB1 will yield some more for final quarter! Let's see what actual VB has to say!
veni I think you look at the demand as seen by DoS. But the true demand is 24K of which 20K is visible to DoS because everything is complete on those 20K. The rest 4K have some issues and so they are not in DoS pipeline.

[pch053]

I assume that EB2-C will also have a PD of Oct'15 as both EB2-I and EB2-C will move together when the spillover visas are allocated. I am now hopeful that the dates will move well into 2007; it might not be July - Aug'07 but I am hoping it will at least move up to March/April'07 (as Q pointed out). There are 3 more bulletins and in the last year there was forward movement during each of the last 3 bulletins. I think from now on both EB2-I and EB2-C will be consuming the spillover visas but that has already been considered in all the detailed calculations done in this forum.

[veni001]

srini, my hunch is you are right. But once bitten twice shy is what my condition is after last years PERM cleanup which made me miss my prediction. So lets cross the fingers.


I can perfectly understand. I am in the same boat like you and everybody else here. The career getting hurt left and right. Underpaid and asked to do super-impossible tasks. Hopefully the misery will end this year.


veni I think you look at the demand as seen by DoS. But the true demand is 24K of which 20K is visible to DoS because everything is complete on those 20K. The rest 4K have some issues and so they are not in DoS pipeline.

Q,
Are you referring to USCIS EB-i485 inventory or DOS demand data , either way i am not getting 24k known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007?

[qesehmk]

Veni

I was referring to 485 inventory. But now I realized the numbers I use have 2.5K in them for PWMB for Oct-06-Aug-07.

The 20K you use I imagine is the DoS demand. Is that right?


Q,
Are you referring to USCIS EB-i485 inventory or DOS demand data , either way i am not getting 24k known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007?

[veni001]

Veni

I was referring to 485 inventory. But now I realized the numbers I use have 2.5K in them for PWMB for Oct-06-Aug-07.

The 20K you use I imagine is the DoS demand. Is that right?

Q,
Either way, demand data less EB2I&C movement in JUNE 2011 VB (approx 8K), or from EB-i485 inventory(half of OCT2006 till 01AUG2007) i am getting the same number about 20.0K
No PWMB or porting numbers though!

[gaurav811]

I think there is a fairly accurate conservative estimate on where the EB2I PD will be by September 2011. Can anyone speculative what can be the aggressive estimate ? Please assume that the PD forward movement will result in exact targeted number use and hence there will be no retrogression. Thanks

[gcwait2007]

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

Great work Srinivasj. Appreciate for bringing out...

[gcwait2007]

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

Q,

Your estimations are in a way correct.

DoS had allocated 3K in May 2011 and another 9K in June 2011 VB.

I estimate that there is another 4K expected from EB1, EB2 ROW (except M&P) 5.8K and EB5 another 5.8K. Total estimate is 15.6K. With porting, I guess the dates would reach March 2007. I keep my fingers crossed.

Finally, thanks to you for this wonderful blog site.

[soggadu]

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

[qesehmk]

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).



Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

[Spectator]

I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

[veni001]

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

soggadu,
We have to wait for the actual VB to see if DOS/USCIS throw any insight, all in all i would stick with the 32k conservative estimate from Q, so far looks to me that USCIS only applied 12k EB1 fall-down from the first two quarters. I believe USCIS will have another 20K for the final quarter towards EB2I&C backlog.

[vishnu]

Let's forget the calculates for a moment. CO said that 'a minumum' of 12k EB1 unused visas will fall down. They are extremely conservative, so that number will probably be much greater than 12k. The fact they have used the 12k already for fall down, despite 4 months left in the fiscal year (and 3 more visa bulletins), I'm v confident there has to be much more unused visas from EB1. In short, would think 4-8k more visas from EB1 will fall down.

[vishnu]

Visa bulletin predicted (in last bulletin) 1-3 week movement for EB2 India, we got 15. Again hows to highlight there conservative nature and possible upside to all their statements. Appx 20k is reqd to clear July 07 from here. Assume 8k from EB1 + 8k from EB2 ROW + 8k from EB5 and we should get there. These numbers aren't conservative but not overly agressive too.

[anuran]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

Well 3.5 months is pretty good forward 'strut'. Therefore, this year there is been a movement of 5.5 months in 5 months and 12 days [142 days (2006) in 132 days (2011)]. I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

I know most predictions seem to stall in Mar'07. That is the reason I use the term 'strut' - CIS will dare to move more because double-retrogression by moving the dates a bit back in the future is not bad :(, but wasting visas would be downright incompetent :mad:.

[soggadu]

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

[veni001]

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).

Q,
I think there won't be any jerky movement this year, looks like DOS/USCIS is coordinating well and moving the dates forward in a controlled manner.
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.

[yank]

Link:

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB-2 India: 15 Oct 06

I hope I am correct in reading the bulletin. Please ignore this if this has been already posted.

[veni001]

I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.

[qesehmk]

I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.



Q,
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.
Here is an interesting fact you may want to consider. Last time under GWB when the economy picking up in 2003-4 everything was made current (including EB3! Can you believe it?). The reason IMHO being that as economy starts revving up they DO WANT the high skilled workforce. So now that there are some signs of recovery, I would imagine that if not this season they could repeat that same act (may not be as drastic as making everything current). But the date has to go forward if economy makes progress.

Since this is not data and is a very subjective topic, I wouldn't bet on it. But looked at this way you can see how DOS tries to play GOD.

[Spectator]

Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.
Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.


Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I am quite confident that you are right.


Veni,
My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date.

[veni001]

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

soggadu,
I am hoping DOS will hint something in the actual VB for June2011.
Best case scenario would be move dates by 3-months each(controlled manner) in the next three bulletins. That will take us in to JULY 2007, if they want to test waters then it will be more than that, let's see!

[veni001]

Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.



The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

Spec,
You are correct, I am assuming that EB2C may not have used all of its allocation(some cases may have processing delays) if they did, then YES both must have the same Cut Off date.

[TeddyKoochu]

From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

[qesehmk]

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!


From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!

Yes I see that one now :), btw I hope Iam woken up every month for the next 3 months with 3.5 months of movement each time I will be current. All in all this is great news thanks for posting the news about significant movement it has turned out to be true.

[anuran]

Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.

The fact that there is no data does bother me. But remember NVC sent out email asking for the fee from those with PD in June? If they do not move the cutoff to June, hope they put the money in a decent money market account. I do believe there are still more unknowns scuttling the predictions. Cheers.

[bieber]

Eventhough I'm happy for the date movement, it clearly creates doubts about how DOS is predicting with given inventory. Still don't understand why they hinted in May bulletin that there will be no likely movement in June bulletin. It's just so easy for them to inform different scenarios, and I don't know what changed their thinking so much in just 1 week of May.

[kd2008]

I think DOS is frustrated with USCIS that they haven't kept a count on new I-140s approved with older PDs to see what is the upgrade demand.

I think DOS is in game mode now ..it will do what it did with family-based cases. It will push dates as far as it can to use up all visas and then retrogress in October.


PS: In the downturn of 2008-2009, a few Indians abandoned their GC process and went back to India. Most attorneys advised them to withdraw their applications. I thought we could possible see a miniscule effect in the USCIS inventory. But that was not to be.

I am sure we will see a drop of a few thousand applications when compared to our estimates on PERM approvals.

[MeraNoAayega]

Speculation, Just like the Crude Oil eh... :)

[gcwait2007]

While I can see the dates in Mumbai embassy, I can not see the June 2011 VB in Travel.State.Gov website.

Can any one see the June 2011 VB now?

[pravara]

Q,

I think your source was correct about the 'significant' part. This particular jump by itself might not be spectacular, but it definitely indicates a trend in the right direction. This blog has become the best coping outlet for GC venting. Thanks to all the guys out there.

[TeluguBidda]

Not yet. It will be interesting to see any guidance but, I suspect there wouldn't be much. I have a feeling that DOS did not get inputs relative to porting cases, so they moved dates by 3.5 months, just to test waters.

While porting cases are not many, there are enough that could not have caused dates move by 3.5 months before the spillover season.

[qesehmk]

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...

[skpanda]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5452.html


As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

[bieber]

that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

[qesehmk]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?


that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

[Spectator]

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...
Here is the full explanatory text.


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

[Spectator]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?
Q,

I agree with that assessment.

I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

On the other hand, processing times have increased, so it may be a wash.

[bieber]

Spec

delaying the bulletin for couple of days to findout the upgrade demand is minimal sounds scientific to me :)

They will most likely see some porting demand for dates between Aug-Oct2006 and if that is substantial (say 500-1000) they will stop moving dates in July bulletin and then findout the demand is minimal compared to sofad supply and hopefully they have no option left except to make the date current :)

[srini1976]

This is all great news for EB2 (I). Thanks for all the great work by Teddy, Q, Spec, Veni & others. You guys are really awesome. Please take a bow :)

And all the kudos to the folks who are stopping EB1 fraud filing by .... companies.. This is making such a huge difference and hopefully genuine folks deserve much better.
Better late than never.

Hopefully the dates should move by atleast 3-4 months in the next VB so that I get a chance to get GREEN :)

[qesehmk]

I think we r in sync. I have the same worry too. As long as ROWMP consume same as last year (i.e. 27K) we should still see 7.5K SOFAD.


Q,
I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

[justintime]

thanks to Q, teddy, spec, veni and all....you guys are awesome!

[gcwait2007]

Q,

We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.

gcw07

[justintime]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

[Spectator]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

justintime,

My personal opinion.

I think this is more of a caveat to cover all the bases and try to diminish expectations.

I don't think DOS are unaware of the frenzy that the movement to date has caused.

[zenmaster]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone ! :)

[justintime]

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now.. :)
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

[shaumack]

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. ;) Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

[zenmaster]

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. ;) Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month:)
Not sure he will call CO next month :D
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !

[zenmaster]

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now.. :)
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

Congratulations justintime ! You are literally just-in-time :)
Good luck in all your future endeavors ...

[gcwait2007]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

Q/ Spec/ Veni & others,

Knowing the cautious approach of DoS and CO, I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.

Further they have reconciled the upgrade demand and they may be aware to some extent to say that it is minimal.

Another 4K to 8K is leftout in EB1 FD, EB5 FD would provide 7K to 8K and EB2 ROW would give another 7K to 8K.

My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

Please offer your comments. Thanks.

[bieber]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kd, etc..

What do you guys think the purpose of watching out the demand to set the cut off date at this time, are there any chances they can approve newly filed 485s before oct or soon after that? I mean to say can they just assign a number in this fy and process the cases in oct,nov next fiscal?

[qesehmk]

Q,
We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.
gcw07 Thanks. Will do by weekend.


Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think? I do not think there will be retrogression unless they move into 2008. Also what ravi says below is a good observation.


As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone ! :)


I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month:)
Not sure he will call CO next month :D
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !
He is a good friend. I don't think he will leave us high and dry.



I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.
My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

Because of your EB1 assumption, your numbers are higher. I would be comfortable with a figure like 16K. However, I agree 18-24K is not impossible.

[TeddyKoochu]

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

[whereismygclost]

i know i may be asking too much ..but is there any slight chance for eb2-i pd oct-07 this sept'11? if not sept'11 ..then when? more like q1/q2 of 2012 i.e oct-mar 2012? or is it next spillover season?

[pravara]

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007 :)

[gcwait2007]

--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007 :)

If Teddy is the CO, he would make every one as current :)

[pch053]

i know i may be asking too much ..but is there any slight chance for eb2-i pd oct-07 this sept'11? if not sept'11 ..then when? more like q1/q2 of 2012 i.e oct-mar 2012? or is it next spillover season?

My feeling is that Oct'07 will be a bit too optimistic expectation unless USCIS opens the floodgates for accepting new applications. I personally will be delighted if the dates move to later half of 2007 (since I have a PD of July'07) but that seems unlikely. You can surely expect to be current during July - Sep'2012. As of now, a reasonable estimate will be to go with Q's latest analysis of another 16K from EB2-ROW, EB5, etc (i.e. assuming most of EB1 FD has been utilized) which will push the PDs in the vicinity of March - April'07.

[veni001]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

Q,
I think so, PD movement in May and June VB are purely from the 12k EB1 spillover from Q1&Q2 of 2011.


Q,

I agree with that assessment.

I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

On the other hand, processing times have increased, so it may be a wash.

Spec,
We observed EB1 reduction from two sources (trackitt & i-140 receipts) and all concluded that ROW EB1 reduction will increase ROW EB2 consumption.
I did not understand your 3k less quota statement, are you referring to FB spillover last year? But i agree EB2ROW may not yield as much as it did last year!

[veni001]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kd, etc..

What do you guys think the purpose of watching out the demand to set the cut off date at this time, are there any chances they can approve newly filed 485s before oct or soon after that? I mean to say can they just assign a number in this fy and process the cases in oct,nov next fiscal?

biber,
I think the new cases (PWMB or porting) filed until end of June will definitely have a chance to get a VISA assigned this year itself.

When spec and I crunched numbers EB2I PWMB PERMS with 2006 PD are less than 500 so there aren't many. There may be few cases with 200 PD that did not apply (not married, out of country, change of employer...etc) but as we know September 2008 EB2I&C PD was at 01AUG2006, so these cases could be only few numbers.

[Spectator]

Q,
I think so, PD movement in May and June VB are purely from the 12k EB1 spillover from Q1&Q2 of 2011.

Spec,
We observed EB1 reduction from two sources (trackitt & i-140 receipts) and all concluded that ROW EB1 reduction will increase ROW EB2 consumption.
I did not understand you 3k less quota statement, are you referring to FB spillover last year? But i agree EB2ROW may not yield as much as it did last year!

Veni,

Yes.

Quota for EB2 was 43,088 last year and is 40,040 this year.

As it affects EB2-ROW (excl M-P) the level reduced from 31,024 to 28,828. M & P each reduced from 3,016 to 2,803.

So even the same approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P yields 2,622 less towards SOFAD, reducing the contribution from 9.7k to 7.0k.

I haven't got a handle on M-P, although Q's figure suggest an increase as well.

A 10% increase in EB3-ROW-M-P approvals would reduce that figure to 4.3k, whilst an increase in EB2-ROW alone would reduce to 4.6k.

In terms of movement it becomes significant.

It is something I will continue to monitor - the jury is out at the moment.

[veni001]

Veni,

Yes.

Quota for EB2 was 43,088 last year and is 40,040 this year.

As it affects EB2-ROW (excl M-P) the level reduced from 31,024 to 28,828. M & P each reduced from 3,016 to 2,803.

So even the same approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P yields 2,622 less towards SOFAD, reducing the contribution from 9.7k to 7.0k.

I haven't got a handle on M-P, although Q's figure suggest an increase as well.

A 10% increase in EB3-ROW-M-P approvals would reduce that figure to 4.3k, whilst an increase in EB2-ROW alone would reduce to 4.6k.

In terms of movement it becomes significant.

It is something I will continue to monitor - the jury is out at the moment.

Spec,
Below is M-P PERM data for 2010 & 1/2 of 2011
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246

Looks like actually the PERM numbers are down, but we have to agree, will have higher EB2% (EB1 effect), ROW PERM situation is also more or less same.

One other factor we may have to consider is technically, ROW PERM approvals until Q3 only will have greater chance of getting VISA allocated from FY 2011 quota (Application processing, fingre printing and back ground check ....etc).

So in my opinion we have to start with 10-01-2010 inventory + 2011(Q1-Q3) PERM data (Q3 is not available yet) as basis for this year ROW demand calculations.

[qesehmk]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

So in my opinion we have to start with 10-01-2010 inventory + 2011(Q1-Q3) PERM data (Q3 is not available yet) as basis for this year ROW demand calculations.

[veni001]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.
Q,
I agree, it will not make make any difference.

[veni001]

For the sale of completeness, here is the analysis of the PWD data based on the minimum education and experience required.


Min Education ----------------- No. ---- % --- % Education
EB2
Doctorate(PhD) -------------- 1,828 --- 3.94% ---- 5.56%
Master's ------------------- 19,254 -- 41.54% --- 58.56%
Bachelor's + 5 -------------- 9,935 -- 21.43% --- 30.22%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) - 1,862 --- 4.02% ---- 5.66%
EB2Total ------------------- 32,879 -- 70.93% -- 100.00%

EB3
Bachelor's ------------------ 8,742 -- 18.86% --- 64.89%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) --- 162 --- 0.35% ---- 1.20%
Associate's ------------------- 636 --- 1.37% ---- 4.72%
High School/GED --------------- 714 --- 1.54% ---- 5.30%
None ------------------------ 3,219 --- 6.94% --- 23.89%
EB3 Total ------------------ 13,473 -- 29.07% -- 100.00%

Grand Total---------------- 46,352 - 100.00%

I don't think it tells us anything new. The overall % split between EB2 and EB3 has remained about the same over the last year.

As we have discussed earlier, different Countries have different individual EB2/EB3 splits, ranging from probably India having most EB2 to Mexico having least. Country data is not part of the PWD data.

Since we don't know these, the utility of the data is limited.


veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

Q,
Let's look at above PW data analysis from Spec, and apply it to 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM Data, Overall about 71% EB2 qualified!

------------------------Total
2011(Q1+Q2) -------- 43,479
Denied/Withdrawn -----8,275 (19%)
Certified --------------35,204
INDIA-----------------17,830
CHINA -----------------2,115
MEX-------------------1,370
PHIL-------------------1,246
ROW------------------12,648

If we leave the overall PERM certifications at 71%-EB2 and 29%-EB3 and...
Set EB2(I&C) at 80-20 then ROW-M-P should be at 60 - 40 to make overall % to 71 - 29, which means 9.0k ROW-M-P PERMs are EB2 from first two quarters (agree lot of unknowns) adding another quarter and 10-01-2010 ROW-M-P pending inventory will put FY 2011 ROW-M-P demand equal to quota.

Note: Majority of the denial/withdrawn (19%) cases should be EB2 qualified filings!

[qesehmk]

veni I had reached teh same conclusion a few days back when Q2 data came through. However trackitt trend tells a different story.

So which one is true?

To find the answer it might be worthwhile if you can do exactly teh same analysis on 2010 PERM data and find out how many ROWMP EB2 PERMs were approved quarter by quarter.


Q,
Let's look at above PW data analysis from Spec, and apply it to 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM Data, Overall about 71% EB2 qualified!

------------------------Total
2011(Q1+Q2) -------- 43,479
Denied/Withdrawn -----8,275 (19%)
Certified --------------35,204
INDIA-----------------17,830
CHINA -----------------2,115
MEX-------------------1,370
PHIL-------------------1,246
ROW------------------12,648

If we leave the overall PERM certifications at 71%-EB2 and 29%-EB3 and...
Set EB2(I&C) at 80-20 then ROW-M-P should be at 60 - 40 to make overall % to 71 - 29, which means 9.0k ROW-M-P PERMs are EB2 from first two quarters (agree lot of unknowns) adding another quarter and 10-01-2010 ROW-M-P pending inventory will put FY 2011 ROW-M-P demand equal to quota.

Note: Majority of the denial/withdrawn (19%) cases should be EB2 qualified filings!

[Spectator]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

EB2-ROW data on Trackitt has proved very reliable.

Philippines isn't bad, but Mexico is awful.

It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.

etc etc.

If you talk about EB3, then it's even worse, because the CP % are so different.

There is method to my madness.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.

[qesehmk]

My comments inline ..



It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.
The same can be said of any individual coutries. That's why for sake of simplicity its not a bad idea to combine.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.
This is something that is not in tune with trackitt trend. I am curious if you know YoY ROW PERMs are up by what %.

[veni001]

veni I had reached teh same conclusion a few days back when Q2 data came through. However trackitt trend tells a different story.

So which one is true?

To find the answer it might be worthwhile if you can do exactly teh same analysis on 2010 PERM data and find out how many ROWMP EB2 PERMs were approved quarter by quarter.

Q,
For 2010 based on PW disclosure overall EB2-EB3 breakdown is 66-34. And PERM denial/withdrawal is about 14%

2010PERM ---- 81,412
Denied/Withdrawn -- 11,175 (13.6%)
Certified ----70,237
INDIA ------ 28,930
CHINA ------- 4,052
MEX --------- 3,306
PHIL ---------3,305
ROW ---------30,644

If we apply the same 80-20 factor for EB2I&C then EB2 ROW should be at 54% to make 66-34 PW data split to work! Which means about 20K EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs for FY2010.

We know there are 27.4k EB2 ROW-M-P approvals from FY 2010 and about 8.0k pending as of 10-01-2010.

If we take pending demand at the beginning of FY = pending at the end of FY then
1. Either our multiplication factor is not valid for ROW!
2. We have to consider the PW data for the total cases than just for the certified cases, and attribute all denial/withdrawn as EB2 qualified filings (this approach will bring the above number to 16.0k,which is close)(If we do the same for FY 2011 data then, not counting Q4 PERM, ROW-M-P demand will be about 29.0k)

[Spectator]

My comments inline ..

Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.
The same can be said of any individual coutries. That's why for sake of simplicity its not a bad idea to combine.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.
This is something that is not in tune with trackitt trend. I am curious if you know YoY ROW PERMs are up by what %.

True if ROW were an individual Country, but it's not. Both Mexico and Philippines do not behave as ROW precisely because they are individual Countries.

The information is in a previous post. I'll track it down and add it to this post.

Edit Post 1379

Country/Group – FY2010 Q1 – FY2011 Q1 - % Change
MEXICO------------ 563 ------- 710 ------ 26.11%
PHILIPPINES------- 578 ------- 746 ------ 29.07%
ROW------------- 5,363 ----- 6,596 ------ 22.99%
Grand Total ---- 6,504 ----- 8,052 ------ 23.80%

I think the Q1-Q2 figures are somewhere, but it is probably quicker to re-compile them, rather than track them down on the forum.

Edit:

It seems my memory is faulty.

The trend seems to have reversed in Q2, but there were only around 50% of the approvals in Q2 in FY2011 than there were in FY2010. Probably this is due to the approval time increasing as DOL tackled the Audit backlog. This may continue to be a factor during the rest of the year.

I don't think we will know until the Q3 figures are available, but it may not be the huge factor I remembered from Q1.

[qesehmk]

great. So veni it seems for ROWMP EB2 in 2010 the multiplication factor was 1.8.

If you use teh same factor in 2011 then ROWMP EB2 485 demand would be 9*2*1.8 =32.4K

Assuming some of these get rejected at 485 stage and 140 stage, may be 30K. So as spec said earlier the worst case scenario for EB2 ROWMP SOFAD is about 4K. Not bad, we will take that hoping that EB1 can fill up that gap of 4K by providing additional 4K.


Q,
For 2010 based on PW disclosure overall EB2-EB3 breakdown is 66-34. And PERM denial/withdrawal is about 14%

2010PERM ---- 81,412
Denied/Withdrawn -- 11,175 (13.6%)
Certified ----70,237
INDIA ------ 28,930
CHINA ------- 4,052
MEX --------- 3,306
PHIL ---------3,305
ROW ---------30,644

If we apply the same 80-20 factor for EB2I&C then EB2 ROW should be at 54% to make 66-34 PW data split to work! Which means about 20K EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs for FY2010.

We know there are 27.4k EB2 ROW-M-P approvals from FY 2010 and about 8.0k pending as of 10-01-2010.

If we take pending demand at the beginning of FY = pending at the end of FY then
1. Either our multiplication factor is not valid for ROW!
2. We have to consider the PW data for the total cases than just for the certified cases, and attribute all denial/withdrawn as EB2 qualified filings (this approach will bring the above number to 16.0k,which is close)(If we do the same for FY 2011 data then, not counting Q4 PERM, ROW demand will be about 29.0k)

[veni001]

great. So veni it seems for ROWMP EB2 in 2010 the multiplication factor was 1.8.

If you use teh same factor in 2011 then ROWMP EB2 485 demand would be 9*2*1.8 =32.4K

Assuming some of these get rejected at 485 stage and 140 stage, may be 30K. So as spec said earlier the worst case scenario for EB2 ROWMP SOFAD is about 4K. Not bad, we will take that hoping that EB1 can fill up that gap of 4K by providing additional 4K.

Unless Q3 PERM data is available, I agree we can not bank more than 4k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point. I would think, based on the trending, EB1 can yield anywhere between 4-10k for the remainder of FY2011.

Probably it is safe to say EB1+EB2ROW-M-P could yield about 10.0K for final quarter!

[veni001]

------
-------
Edit Post 1379

Country/Group – FY2010 Q1 – FY2011 Q1 - % Change
MEXICO------------ 563 ------- 710 ------ 26.11%
PHILIPPINES------- 578 ------- 746 ------ 29.07%
ROW------------- 5,363 ----- 6,596 ------ 22.99%
Grand Total ---- 6,504 ----- 8,052 ------ 23.80%

I think the Q1-Q2 figures are somewhere, but it is probably quicker to re-compile them, rather than track them down on the forum.

Edit:

It seems my memory is faulty.

The trend seems to have reversed in Q2, but there were only around 50% of the approvals in Q2 in FY2011 than there were in FY2010. Probably this is due to the approval time increasing as DOL tackled the Audit backlog. This may continue to be a factor during the rest of the year.

I don't think we will know until the Q3 figures are available, but it may not be the huge factor I remembered from Q1.

Spec,
That's correct...
--------FY2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011 --- 2011(Est.) ----- % ----
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370 ----------- 2,740 --------17.1%(-ve)
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246 ------------2,492 --------24.5%(-ve)
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648 ---------- 25,296 --------17.4%(-ve)
Total ---37,255 -------15,264 -----------30,528 --------18.0%(-ve)

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

[soggadu]

[QUOTE=veni001;2040]Spec,
That's correct...
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications![/

So .... Approx 24k for row and 5k combined for MP... We will still get slipover right??

[Spectator]

It seems to me that EB2-ROW I-485 approval times are trending upwards, so I was wondering how much of an impact Q3 FY2011 PERM approvals will have.

The data we do have is for FY2010 and Q1/Q2 FY2011. Possibly most FY2011 EB2-ROW approvals will come from that.

Here are the relevant figures:

Country ------ Q3/4 FY2010 -- Q1/2 FY2011 --- Total
MEXICO ------------- 1,662 -------- 1,370 --- 3,032
PHILIPPINES -------- 1,543 -------- 1,246 --- 2,789
ROW --------------- 14,207 ------- 12,643 -- 26,850
Grand Total ------- 17,412 ------- 15,259 -- 32,671

Q3 2010 was a high approval quarter so possibly the figures will be somewhat less, because some of Q3 FY2010 will be replaced by Q3 FY2011 numbers.

[gcwait2007]

Spec,
That's correct...
--------FY2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011 --- 2011(Est.) ----- % ----
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370 ----------- 2,740 --------17.1%(-ve)
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246 ------------2,492 --------24.5%(-ve)
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648 ---------- 25,296 --------17.4%(-ve)
Total ---37,255 -------15,264 -----------30,528 --------18.0%(-ve)

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

Good News :D

[veni001]

Spec,
That's correct...
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

So .... Approx 24k for row and 5k combined for MP... We will still get slipover right??

soggadu;
Please note each analysis we are looking at different angle, in this approach it is showing 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM filing at the same time we see about 5% increase in PW data for FY2011(Q1+Q2), if we off-sett that then the net effect will be around 10% reduction.

[soggadu]

soggadu;
Please note each analysis we are looking at different angle, in this approach it is showing 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM filing at the same time we see about 5% increase in PW data for FY2011(Q1+Q2), if we off-sett that then the net effect will be around 10% reduction.

Can you tell e this... Does Q4 perm filings get approved in the last quarter?? I guess not....Then during the extrapolation, we can reduce that number right...so it would be 18k + 3.5k = 21.5k .... So lo more spillover right....

[veni001]

Can you tell e this... Does Q4 perm filings get approved in the last quarter?? I guess not....Then during the extrapolation, we can reduce that number right...so it would be 18k + 3.5k = 21.5k .... So lo more spillover right....

soggadu,
Agree Q4 PERM cases may not get a VISA assigned in that FY, When we are talking about spillover we have to take the overall effect. SO for FY2011 EB2 ROW-M-P demand calculations we need data for Q1,Q2 & Q3 PERM + pending applications at USCIS as of 10-01-2010. So it will be 21.5k+9.9k = 31.4k

[qesehmk]

veni

plus you only showed us just a few posts back that EB2/3 mix for 2010 vs 2011 is more in favor of EB2 in 2011. That is a -ve impact.

So that -18% probably is a wash when you consider this EB2/3 mix factor.

But even then ROW should yield 7.5K (if consumption of 2011 equals consumption of 2010). I think we will take that! Right?


soggadu;
Please note each analysis we are looking at different angle, in this approach it is showing 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM filing at the same time we see about 5% increase in PW data for FY2011(Q1+Q2), if we off-sett that then the net effect will be around 10% reduction.

[kd2008]

soggadu;
Please note each analysis we are looking at different angle, in this approach it is showing 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM filing at the same time we see about 5% increase in PW data for FY2011(Q1+Q2), if we off-sett that then the net effect will be around 10% reduction.

I wouldn't worry about PW data at all. Nearly all companies want lowest wages for highest qualifications - they want PW data to document this, especially for EB2. So there will be instances of shopping around a bit. I would go with October 2010 pending inventory + PERM filings for Q1, Q2, estimated Q3 and figure out the spillover.

Me thinks Eb2-ROW will end up with 26K to 28K usage. What do you think guys?

[veni001]

veni

plus you only showed us just a few posts back that EB2/3 mix for 2010 vs 2011 is more in favor of EB2 in 2011. That is a -ve impact.

Yes, I believe this is mainly due the otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases

So that -18% probably is a wash when you consider this EB2/3 mix factor.

I agree, to keep our estimate conservative.

But even then ROW should yield 7.5K (if consumption of 2011 equals consumption of 2010). I think we will take that! Right?

I am still hesitant to bank anything more than 4k from ROW-M-P until Q3 PERM Data is available (probably we will of Sept bulletin by then :)) I am counting on an average 10.0k EB2 qualified ROW PERMs for the first three quarters + EB2ROW-M-P i485 pending (9.9k) as of 10-01-2010.

[veni001]

I wouldn't worry about PW data at all. Nearly all companies want lowest wages for highest qualifications - they want PW data to document this, especially for EB2. So there will be instances of shopping around a bit. I would go with October 2010 pending inventory + PERM filings for Q1, Q2, estimated Q3 and figure out the spillover.

Me thinks Eb2-ROW will end up with 26K to 28K usage. What do you think guys?

kd2008,
Spec's analysis is based on minimum job requirements, not based on salary!

[kd2008]

kd2008,
Spec's analysis is based on minimum job requirements, not based on salary!

Yes veni, I know. What I meant was companies will ask attorneys to file multiple PW requests until they get a favorable wage outcome, especially so if it an Eb2 case. Hence increase in PW numbers can be ignored. Only the actual PERM filings be taken into account.

[shaumack]

I am still hesitant to bank anything more than 4k from ROW-M-P until Q3 PERM Data is available (probably we will of Sept bulletin by then :)) I am counting on an average 10.0k EB2 qualified ROW PERMs for the first three quarters + EB2ROW-M-P i485 pending (9.9k) as of 10-01-2010.

Do you think in calculating available SOFAD we should also try to keep some buffer of about 2-2.5K (some number) visas that DOS will prefer not to use for determining cut-off dates for September bulletin? Just in case they want to keep enough padding to absorb the demand due to unknown upgrade demand. This way next fiscal year they will not end up using 2800 visas before April. I do not know but DOS never plays by book and always keeps learning from their past mistakes. Just a thought.

[Spectator]

Just a reminder for those that don't know.

I am keeping a running total of EB2-I approvals.

I update the figures for Trackitt approvals in the FACTS and DATA section 2-3 times a day. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections

The last post date doesn't change, because it is an edit, so it isn't very obvious.

Some people might find it interesting to follow the progress.

[veni001]

Yes veni, I know. What I meant was companies will ask attorneys to file multiple PW requests until they get a favorable wage outcome, especially so if it an Eb2 case. Hence increase in PW numbers can be ignored. Only the actual PERM filings be taken into account.

kd2008,
That could be true, that is why we are trying to gather data from all possible directions/sources to come to a common understanding.

More or less E2 ROW-M-P is in the range of 45% - 55% of ROW-M-P PERM certifications.

[qesehmk]

Spec

You may want to use "announcements" when you make that kind of change. Just edit the existing announcement or simply create new one.

Just a reminder for those that don't know.

I am keeping a running total of EB2-I approvals.

I update the figures for Trackitt approvals in the FACTS and DATA section 2-3 times a day. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-trend-amp-sofad-projections

The last post date doesn't change, because it is an edit, so it isn't very obvious.

Some people might find it interesting to follow the progress.

[visagcinfo]

How do we know if USCIS/DOL have used all visa numbers for this year by end of the year (September)?

Any news on the latest I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics that is published on uscis.gov website? Last it was published on Jan 5th, 2011. I read somewhere they are going to keep publishing it every 3 months.

btw, appreciate all the contributors to this blog for their work.

[veni001]

Do you think in calculating available SOFAD we should also try to keep some buffer of about 2-2.5K (some number) visas that DOS will prefer not to use for determining cut-off dates for September bulletin? Just in case they want to keep enough padding to absorb the demand due to unknown upgrade demand. This way next fiscal year they will not end up using 2800 visas before April. I do not know but DOS never plays by book and always keeps learning from their past mistakes. Just a thought.

shaumack,
Let's look at the language from June VB closely...

"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit. "

It is clear that EB2I absorbed all 2,800 quota in the first 7 months! If we look at 10-01-2010 inventory, 01-05-2011 inventory there isn't much change (they might have added few district office cases). So on an average they approved about 400 EB2I porting cases per month.

"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability. "

As we can see porting demand is averaging about 400 per month for the first two quarters of FY2011(could have been higher in the first two months). When DOS/USCIS say heavy demand of porting it is only few hundreds(or less than 1% of EB3I pending between May 2002 and May 2006)

Combining Q1&Q2 PERM data for FY2011 did not show any drastic increase in filings, and DOS indicated, at least for the last few weeks, the "porting" demand is minimal. Even if we assume DOS/USCIS aggressive numbers (400 per month) for the remainder of the year( July-Sept) it will only be about 1 -1.5k which is a very small number compared to all SOFAD they want to utilize in the final quarter.

[veni001]

How do we know if USCIS/DOS have used all visa numbers for this year by end of the year (September)?

Any news on the latest I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics that is published on uscis.gov website? Last it was published on Jan 5th, 2011. I read somewhere they are going to keep publishing it every 3 months.

btw, appreciate all the contributors to this blog for their work.

visagcinfo,
Welcome to the forum.
We can gauge it, at least for this year, based on pending EB-i485 inventory dated 10-01-2010 and PD movement in September 2011 VB.

[kd2008]

Guys, unfortunately USCIS is dragging its legs to publish the I-485 inventory report. So EB2-ROW pipeline and usage is still a matter of uncertainty. I was wondering if we can look at the number of pending applications on trackitt. May be that can help us determine upcoming consumption and cross check with PERM data. Knowing you guys, it must have already been done probably. If so, just point me to the post.

Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.

[bieber]

Teddy,

u believe they move dates beyond Jul07 in september? I think they may be ready to do quarterly spill overs from next fiscal to control the date movement

[Spectator]

Teddy, Bieber, Q, Veni,

I think it is extremely interesting what will happen and worthy of discussion, not least because we all probably have our own views.

Let's hope that there are enough applications already to cover SOFAD, because I think it is too late now to generate any more that will be ready to adjudicate, bar porting cases that already have an I-485.

IF I were CO I would consider the following:

1) Move the Cut Off Date in September (or October if the dates don't get close to the end of the known demand) to generate the realistic Demand required for FY2012.

2) Retrogress the dates back in the following month consistent with using the initial limited allocation.

3) In late March, assess whether sufficient Demand has been generated for the year, taking into account the likely number of spare visas. 5/6 months into the year should be long enough to make an educated guess.

Then either:

a) If insufficient Demand appears to have been generated, taking into account how other Countries/Categories are performing and the best estimate of likely spare visas, move the May VB forward to generate the extra Demand required or;

b) If sufficient Demand appears to exist, continue moving the VB in line with the initial allocation.

5/6 months from the first movement allows the actual Demand to realistically appear.

Option (a) allows a further 5 months for additional Demand to be ready for adjudication, if necessary.

Option (b) allows for the eventuality that either more Demand was generated than expected, or that less visas are available than initially thought.

4) Spillover gets allocated in July to September and the September Cut Off date is advanced sufficiently to generate the next year's Demand, safe in the knowledge that none of the later applications will be ripe for adjudication within the current FY.

5) Rinse and repeat each year.


Once the Cut Off Date moves beyond a person's PD and assuming DOS get their estimates/calculations correct, most people could have a reasonable expectation that they would get their approval the next year. That gives a certain stability to the system.

At some point, if it hasn't happened already, USCIS will have to give DOS a breakdown of approved I-140 applications held by USCIS, rather than the NVC, which DOS already have. With this information, DOS calculations could be quite accurate. The unknown variable would be the number of spare visas available in any given year.

I think the above is broadly within the law, but the law was never designed to deal with this eventuality, so it needs to be bent a little bit whatever DOS decide to do.

What to you think?

How would you tackle it?

[soggadu]

Spec...

IMHO the dates will move towards 2008 and then retrogress as needed...you are right... reason for this is that USCIS has to plan ahead not to waste any numbers, it takes around 6months for each application to go thru and i guess it would be right to get that data before hand rather than during the middle of the year, also it would generate fresh income.

Also, many of us are neglecting the fact that NVC has send emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD. I believe it was not a mistake and they have plans to move the date, hence the word retrogression in current bulletin....

[haripathhi]

S,

I think the info about the fact that "NVC has sent emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD" is not entirely true. Reason being, I believe this was an effort by someone from www.immigrationvoice.org and a few folks thought that the idea was to update their PD. So I wouldn't go by the updates on that list. I hope I am wrong on this one!


Spec...

IMHO the dates will move towards 2008 and then retrogress as needed...you are right... reason for this is that USCIS has to plan ahead not to waste any numbers, it takes around 6months for each application to go thru and i guess it would be right to get that data before hand rather than during the middle of the year, also it would generate fresh income.

Also, many of us are neglecting the fact that NVC has send emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD. I believe it was not a mistake and they have plans to move the date, hence the word retrogression in current bulletin....

[qesehmk]

Spec the key in what you are proposing is generate realistic demand required for next one year.

So what is realistic demand? It certainly isn't 3K for EB2I. (and by the way .... teh demand is always more than 3K. Its really supply we are talking about).

In my opinion I would remove the need to be current in order to file 485. This way let everybody file 485 and then when they become current they get a GC. USCIS / DOS have perfect visibility and keep collecting cool fees and applicant is happy.

Now realistically .... I think they would do better to move date by 1 year every year at the least in Sep followed by retrogression. However my advice really be to make everything current in Sep and then retrogress in Oct. But you are right that is such an outrageous thing .. that it almost violates the law rather than bend or go around it.




to generate the realistic Demand required for FY2012.

[soggadu]

S,

I think the info about the fact that "NVC has sent emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD" is not entirely true. Reason being, I believe this was an effort by someone from www.immigrationvoice.org and a few folks thought that the idea was to update their PD. So I wouldn't go by the updates on that list. I hope I am wrong on this one!

Might be the case.... no concrete evidence

[bieber]

Spec

To create realistic demand, they have to guess the supply. I think the bottomline is CIS/DOS is whether ok or not with people getting EADs and wait in line. They have to generate more demand than supply to avoid wastage (even going to EB3 is wastage in terms of EB2).

Moving 1 year fixed in every september may be good idea, or eligibility to apply for I485 if visa number is not available should me made time dependent. If one has approved 140 for 2 years and they didnot get chance then there shouldn't be visa number availability clause, they can issue the gc only when number is available anyways. The cutoff date movement will still represent the actual scenario

[gcwait2007]

Spec/ Veni,

What is your final say on EB2 ROW-M-P spillover to EB2 IC? Thanks.

[anuran]

Also, many of us are neglecting the fact that NVC has send emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD.

There s something fishy about those who claim NVC collected fee from them till Nov. As far as I could gather, one or two reported on imminfo that they got an email requesting fee from NVC and that their PD is in June 2007. That November stuff comes out from some other forum and is as I said 'fishy'...

Edit: I now see that haripatthi is clarified the same. That is just about it.

[soggadu]

There s something fishy about those who claim NVC collected fee from them till Nov. As far as I could gather, one or two reported on imminfo that they got an email requesting fee from NVC and that their PD is in June 2007. That November stuff comes out from some other forum and is as I said 'fishy'...

Edit: I now see that haripatthi is clarified the same. That is just about it.

http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/675290817/india-china-quota-numbers-%E2%80%93-update-april-1st-2011-by-william/page/last_page

I agree it is just mentioned with no formal evidence... We still do have people with PD 07 07 getting the nvc mails... I am pretty sure i read some where a guy got the email for 11 07 but i am not able to find it now...

Proof for person with Oct 2007 getting nvc email...

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum5-all-other-green-card-issues/2088073-nvc-email-tracking-for-post-july-2007-applicants-2.html

[Spectator]

Spec the key in what you are proposing is generate realistic demand required for next one year.

So what is realistic demand? It certainly isn't 3K for EB2I. (and by the way .... teh demand is always more than 3K. Its really supply we are talking about).

In my opinion I would remove the need to be current in order to file 485. This way let everybody file 485 and then when they become current they get a GC. USCIS / DOS have perfect visibility and keep collecting cool fees and applicant is happy.

Now realistically .... I think they would do better to move date by 1 year every year at the least in Sep followed by retrogression. However my advice really be to make everything current in Sep and then retrogress in Oct. But you are right that is such an outrageous thing .. that it almost violates the law rather than bend or go around it.

Q,

Yes when I said demand, I meant it in the sense of Demand that DOS could see for the Supply of visas it might have to allocate by the end of the FY. Supply if you like in your terminology. I see the Supply as being the Supply of available visa numbers and Demand being who wants to use them.

I don't think DOS can be outrageous, but somewhere in or towards the end of 2008 would probably generate 30-40k extra applications.

I tried to suggest something that was "doable" and that DOS might realistically consider.

Making it Current would be fantastic, but I think it falls outside those boundaries.

Forget the income aspect. That mostly goes to USCIS, since 98% of EB-IC cases are AOS and I don't think DOS particularly cares about that.

[kd2008]

There are 173 cases pending in trackitt for EB2 ROW in the I-485 tracker that have been filed after Sept 30, 2010. Only 107 cases have been approved. I would say chances of any spillover are remote in this case. :mad:

[veni001]

Teddy, Bieber, Q, Veni,

---------------------------------
---------------------------------

4) Spillover gets allocated in July to September and the September Cut Off date is advanced sufficiently to generate the next year's Demand, safe in the knowledge that none of the later applications will be ripe for adjudication within the current FY.

5) Rinse and repeat each year.

-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------
What to you think?

How would you tackle it?

Spec,
Holding the data in hand i would think that is what USCIS must be coordinating with DOS in their monthly updates to set the cutoff dates!

But in reality looking at May/June VB language regarding VISA availability, they are still in a state of confusion!

[veni001]

There are 173 cases pending in trackitt for EB2 ROW in the I-485 tracker that have been filed after Sept 30, 2010. Only 107 cases have been approved. I would say chances of any spillover are remote in this case. :mad:


Spec/ Veni,

What is your final say on EB2 ROW-M-P spillover to EB2 IC? Thanks.

gcwait2007,
I wouldn't bet more then 4.0 k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point!

[gcwait2007]

gcwait2007,
I wouldn't bet more then 4.0 k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point!

I am confused with your post. You said 18% decrease by comparing Trackit and then another analysis, over all 10% decrease.

Last year, it was about 10K Fall Across. Why it would go down considerably, if there is decrease? Thankful if you share your thoughts.

[tanu_75]

Folks, I guess there was some talk about this : http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/677347613/got-email-from-nvcattorney-state-gov-to-pay-794-spam

*If* this is true, I would assume that these guys have a good chance of getting a GC (i.e July-Oct 2007 PD's). So would it be far to expect that if DOS is looking at Oct 2007 for CP, USCIS may ask for some dates beyond Oct 2007 for I-485 as buffer for next year? So 2008 is quite possible? Major extrapolation but wanted to get thoughts on what DOS and USCIS maybe thinking right now.

[veni001]

I am confused with your post. You said 18% decrease by comparing Trackit and then another analysis, over all 10% decrease.

Last year, it was about 10K Fall Across. Why it would go down considerably, if there is decrease? Thankful if you share your thoughts.

gcwait2007,
Here are my reasons to be conservative with ROW-M-P this year...
1. Yes, YoY ROW PERMs showing about 18% reduction based on 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM
2. Same-time 2011 PW data show 5% increase in overall EB2 requests.
3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!
4. Which means about 3.33k EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs per quarter
5. About 10.0k EB2ROW-M-P i485s pending as of 10-01-2010
6. Trackitt shows more than 100% EB2ROW-M-P usage as of May 2011 when compared to FY2010

[nayekal]

3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!

I have to disagree with this. Denial increase in EB1 is too recent for any one to move to EB2. Moreover, Except from India & China, people from rest of the nationals will not have any enthusiasm to go for EB1 instead of EB2 as it is always current for them and this might be the case for many years. Rest of them (from India & China) little if any, moving into EB2 will not impact as they will be at the end of the queue.

[suninphx]

gcwait2007,
Here are my reasons to be conservative with ROW-M-P this year...
1. Yes, YoY ROW PERMs showing about 18% reduction based on 2001(Q1+Q2) PERM
2. Same-time 2011 PW data show 5% increase in overall EB2 requests.3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!
4. Which means about 3.33k EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs per quarter
5. About 10.0k EB2ROW-M-P i485s pending as of 10-01-2010
6. Trackitt shows more than 100% EB2ROW-M-P usage as of May 2011 when compared to FY2010

I am aware that we do not have any other source to determine eb2/eb3 percentage but I have a feeling that we are relying too much on PW data. We would know in few months.
In any case , keep on great work guys! I almost stopped going to other forums as none of the posts there are backed up with solid data like you guys do here!

[veni001]

3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!

I have to disagree with this. Denial increase in EB1 is too recent for any one to move to EB2. Moreover, Except from India & China, people from rest of the nationals will not have any enthusiasm to go for EB1 instead of EB2 as it is always current for them and this might be the case for many years. Rest of them (from India & China) little if any, moving into EB2 will not impact as they will be at the end of the queue.

nayekal,
Please refer to i140 demand data at the following link
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI
You will notice that EB1 decrease actually started in FY2010


Also another misconception is EB1 demand is purely from IND & China.

See below for EB1 consumption history for India & China for the past 6 yrs , It is averaging about 5.0k per country per year!

EB1 INDIA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,336
2006 - 3,156
2007 - 2,855
2008 - 5,326
2009 - 6,672
2010 - 6,741
Total = 31,086

EB1 CHINA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,422
2006 - 3,278
2007 - 2,982
2008 - 5,602
2009 - 4,999
2010 - 6,741
Total = 30,024

5.0k is about 12.5% of EB1 annual quota or 25% combining EB1(I&C), which means Historically 75% EB1 is being utilized by ROW-M-P only!

[veni001]

I am aware that we do not have any other source to determine eb2/eb3 percentage but I have a feeling that we are relying too much on PW data. We would know in few months.
In any case , keep on great work guys! I almost stopped going to other forums as none of the posts there are backed up with solid data like you guys do here!

suninphx,
Welcome and thank you!
PW data is only one variable out of several. I agree it is keeping our prediction conservative.

[gcwait2007]

5.0k is about 12.5% of EB1 annual quota or 25% combining EB1(I&C), which means Historically 75% EB1 is being utilized by ROW-M-P only!

Veni,

While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

gcw07

[veni001]

Veni,

While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

gcw07

gcw07,
I agree with you, thing started changing since the economy went south!

[Spectator]

Veni,

While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

gcw07
I don't agree with this statement at all. It is a sweeping generalization.

The world is far larger than Asia or Mexico.

Scientists, for example from Europe, Russia and Japan use EB1A & B.

I too know non Indian or Chinese EB1s, none of whom are EB1C and all are more than qualified for EB2.

The advantage of EB1 to both the applicant and, for EB1B the employer, is the lack of the expensive and time consuming LC stage.

Having looked through the AAO appeals decisions for EB1A and EB1B in the past, there is no evidence that ROW do not use those categories quite extensively.

I would be surprised if the ratio differs much from the overall 20:20:60 ratio.

Based on known FY2010 figures for EB1, there were 6,340 primary I-140 approvals for EB1A /B.

Using the above ratio gives 15,850 total primary EB1 I-140 approvals including EB1C.

For simplicity's sake, let's say they turned into the 41,026 EB1 I-485 approvals.

In FY2010, EB1-ROW-M-P represented 67.14% of the total EB1 I-485 approvals or 27,544.

Working back, 40% of those is 11,018 EB1-ROW-M-P EB1A/B I-485 approvals, even if you discount any EB1C applicants having the qualifications/experience to apply under EB2.

As for Mexico, they represented just 6.66% of the ROW-M-P total for all EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2010.

It's not a precise calculation, but close enough to make the point.

Whether, large numbers of failed EB1 applicants are applying under EB2 is an entirely different question. The effects of USCIS sweeping interpretation of Kazarian may not have been evident for long enough to have a significant effect yet.

[Pundit Arjun]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni & Other Contributors,

Thanks for all the great work and keep it up. Your work benefits us, keeps us grounded and not jump into wild suggestions of getting GC at a sooner timeframe and most importantly helps us plan our future ( investments, family needs, career etc.,).

Glad that Q started this forum and extremely glad that all like minds joined hands and this forum is such a force now. Good luck to you guys who will be greened soon. I like all other viewers visit the forum 2-3 times a day and am confident that soon I ( and other viewers) will be able to contribute as well :)

Thanks again folks.

[Spectator]

I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

EB1

EB1A --- 25.17%
EB1B --- 23.31%
EB1C --- 51.52%
Total - 100.00%

The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

EB2

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.

EB3

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.

The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/LPR10.shtm

Table 7 contains the information above.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html




I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

EB1

EB1A --- 25.17%
EB1B --- 23.31%
EB1C --- 51.52%
Total - 100.00%

The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

EB2

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.

EB3

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.

The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/LPR10.shtm

Table 7 contains the information above.

[Spectator]

Spec

Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html

I haven't gone through the DHS report for FB, but the DOS report shows the number of numerically limited visas issued as 226,651.

Maybe you've missed some in the DHS report.

The numbers never seem to match exactly and even the DOS report changes over the year. Usually the differences are so small, as to be insignificant.

[veni001]

I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

EB1

EB1A --- 25.17%
EB1B --- 23.31%
EB1C --- 51.52%
Total - 100.00%

The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

EB2

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.

EB3

The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.

The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/LPR10.shtm

Table 7 contains the information above.

Spec,
This is very good information, we noticed that factor should be less than what we are using between PERM/i-140 to i485.
Since these are average numbers, will be different for different countries!

[qesehmk]

Check it out. The difference is not insignificant.
If true, what it means is DoS issues visas at limit for FB. But DHS only used 214.5K towards FB.

As a consequence DoS should incresae the EB 2011 limit by 10.5K. (of course that ain't gonna happen unless a pressure group brings this to notice).


I haven't gone through the DHS report for FB, but the DOS report shows the number of numerically limited visas issued as 226,651.

Maybe you've missed some in the DHS report.

The numbers never seem to match exactly and even the DOS report changes over the year. Usually the differences are so small, as to be insignificant.

[Spectator]

Spec,
This is very good information, we noticed that factor should be less than what we are using between PERM/i-140 to i485.
Since these are average numbers, will be different for different countries!
Veni,

You will notice that I have always used 2.1 as a ratio for EB2. The numbers have remained stable for many years.

Whilst it is true that different Countries almost certainly have different ratios within a Preference Category, I don't think we should second guess the number without some solid justification. I don't think we have reached that point.

IMO, the Differences between the Preference Categories are what we might expect.

For EB1, the time taken to gain the necessary reputation and expertise, or work their way up the organization, means the applicants are likely to be older and more likely to be married and have children.

In EB2, with Masters as the minimum requirement, it is likely that there are more younger people with less time out of University.

In EB3, where everybody is retrogressed and have to wait a considerable time, the likelihood is that applicants are older when the application is approved.

[Spectator]

Hi
I have a doubt in Facts and Data forum.

Is the Perm data given in the table includes the withdrawn / Denied too?
I calculated for Priority date 2009 India approvals and i have a slightly diff number . I filtered w& D datas .
Thanks

The PERM Data includes Certified and Certified-Expired, but excludes Denied and Withdrawn.

The reasons for including Certified-Expired has been discussed at length in previous posts.

[Spectator]

Thank you . This forum has too much of valuable information .

Thanks to Sangiano who introduced it to me

If the difference is small, then I wouldn't worry about it. If it is larger, let me know the numbers you have and exactly what they represent (important) and I will check.

[veni001]

Veni,

You will notice that I have always used 2.1 as a ratio for EB2. The numbers have remained stable for many years.

Yes, we are pretty much on track here.

Whilst it is true that different Countries almost certainly have different ratios within a Preference Category, I don't think we should second guess the number without some solid justification. I don't think we have reached that point.

IMO, the Differences between the Preference Categories are what we might expect.

For EB1, the time taken to gain the necessary reputation and expertise, or work their way up the organization, means the applicants are likely to be older and more likely to be married and have children.

In EB2, with Masters as the minimum requirement, it is likely that there are more younger people with less time out of University.


Yes, you can notice that from the table below!

In EB3, where everybody is retrogressed and have to wait a considerable time, the likelihood is that applicants are older when the application is approved.

Spec,
I quickly compiled the table below from DHS FY statistics.

-EB1 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
2006 ---15,070 ---10,440 ---11,450 ---36,960 --- 2.45
2007 ---10,967 ----7,836 ----7,894 ---26,697 --- 2.43
2008 ---15,184 ---11,514 ----9,980 ---36,698 --- 2.42
2009 ---16,806 ---12,685 ---11,433 ---40,924 --- 2.44
2010 ---17,117 ---12,941 ---10,997 ---41,055 --- 2.40
Avg.----75,114 ---55,416 ---51,754 --182,314 --- 2.43

-EB2 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
2006 ---10,604 ----7,204 ----4,103 ---21,911 --- 2.07
2007 ---22,303 ---13,955 ----7,802 ---44,060 --- 1.98
2008 ---34,535 ---23,686 ---11,824 ---70,046 --- 2.03
2009 ---22,098 ---15,884 ----7,570 ---45,552 --- 2.06
2010 ---26,131 ---19,723 ----8,092 ---53,946 --- 2.06
Avg.---115,671 ---80,452 ---39,392 --235,515 --- 2.04

-EB3 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
2006 ---40,929 ---23,606 ---25,573 ---89,908 --- 2.21
2007 ---36,539 ---24,336 ---23,336 ---84,814 --- 2.32
2008 ---20,584 ---14,208 ---14,208 ---48,887 --- 2.38
2009 ---18,359 ---11,327 ---10,968 ---40,654 --- 2.21
2010 ---16,714 ---12,621 ---10,340 ---39,675 --- 2.37
Avg.---132,925 ---86,098 ---84,915 --303,938 --- 2.29

Q,
Add another thread, " i140 to i485 Ratios" under FACTS AND DATA and post above table for future reference.