EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[alex99]

Update from Shusterman law firm:
EB-2 Movement in May
Will EB-2 India will advance "substantially" in May?

There are 18,000 persons with EB-2 priority dates in 2006 who are waiting for green cards, 13,000 of them from India.

Given the 7% country quota, we expect the India EB-2 to move forward in May between 2 weeks and 2 months.

[qesehmk]

The dates will move eventually - July or before. Whether the movement will be in May or Jun is anybody's guess. We can only hope they do move in May.

If the assumption is 12K numbers will fall down in May - then the dates should move by 6-9 months. If the dates don't move, clearly the fall down hasn't materialized.

Last year we didn't see any FD FA until Q4. Sorry to be stating this cold fact. But just wanted to stay away from hype and emotion.

[leo07]

Firstly, let me be clear that I'm talking about the PDs of:May-June-July of 2007. ( My typo before when I said 2006)

If the dates move until April 2007 in the coming VB, the chances for further movement this year will slim down significantly.
On the other hand, if they move the dates to Sept-Oct 2006 in May 2011 VB, the chances for reaching May-June-July of 2007 increase significantly.
Well, if DOS moves the dates to Aug-2007 in May VB, of course that's the best case scenario:)


Hi Leo07
Can you elaborate on "there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2006 PDs" not sure what danger you are talking about.

Thanks
A

[qesehmk]

Leo ... very wise observation. Agree.


Firstly, let me be clear that I'm talking about the PDs of:May-June-July of 2007. ( My typo before when I said 2006)

If the dates move until April 2007 in the coming VB, the chances for further movement this year will slim down significantly.
On the other hand, if they move the dates to Sept-Oct 2006 in May 2011 VB, the chances for reaching May-June-July of 2007 increase significantly.
Well, if DOS moves the dates to Aug-2007 in May VB, of course that's the best case scenario:)

[pxu7728]

I am no lawyer but I think the country Quota of 7% shoudn't apply over spillover. Anyone .. please comment.....
Qesemk .. any comments on shusterman's news update


Update from Shusterman law firm:
EB-2 Movement in May
Will EB-2 India will advance "substantially" in May?

There are 18,000 persons with EB-2 priority dates in 2006 who are waiting for green cards, 13,000 of them from India.

Given the 7% country quota, we expect the India EB-2 to move forward in May between 2 weeks and 2 months.

[qesehmk]

7% won't be applicable to those 12000. They will STRICTLY be given to all EB2 guys in order of their PD.

India dates will move significantly simply based on EB1 FD. Then there will be EB5 and EB2 ROW unused numbers. So all in all things look pretty good. It doesn't matter much if the move happens in May or July. It will happen. Hang in there.

p.s. - If that lawyer actually said that then now you know who not to go to for legal help !! Oink Oink!!


I am no lawyer but I think the country Quota of 7% shoudn't apply over spillover. Anyone .. please comment.....
Qesemk .. any comments on shusterman's news update

[bieber]

really surprising to know that Shusterman didnot consider 7% before making a statement about months/years. may be he/she just wants to attaract some traffic

[bieber]

kd2008

Really, IV fighting the war without number experts all these years? I lost whatever impression I had on them once they made Q's thread private.

If it takes 10-20 millon dollars for lobbying, why can't they just put it on website and interested parties will arrange that money. Don't ask but donate the money policy doesn't have much success.

[kd2008]

kd2008

Really, IV fighting the war without number experts all these years? I lost whatever impression I had on them once they made Q's thread private.

If it takes 10-20 millon dollars for lobbying, why can't they just put it on website and interested parties will arrange that money. Don't ask but donate the money policy doesn't have much success.

Beiber, what you say is true. I thought my post was inappropriate for this thread so I deleted it. My apologies.

[qesehmk]

Guys, you can post what you think is valuable. I support all organizations that support immigration including IV.

If some of us had some bad experiences with a few individuals, that shouldn't prevent us from contributing to a good cause in future.

[collhyd]

Guys I have my priority date at Feb 29, 2008. When do you think it could be current based on revised predictions.

[nishant2200]

New to this blog! Q, it's good.

I was recently going through some old documents to find my school leaving certificate, saw lots of old stuff, documents, marksheets, true copies, receipts, applications, zeroxes,...etc

Hopefully it will end one day, no more of all these needed!

I agree with most of the analysis so far here. I think if 12k comes in May, then will move till september-october 2006, and should reach till mid 2007 by end of this fiscal season. After that what they do, I can't think! Mine is November 2007, I don't think it's going to hit it this year. But anyways, am readying 485 documents needed just in case.

[TeddyKoochu]

Following are the numbers before Oct -2006. These total to ~ 12K.

EB2-C - 3521
EB2-I - 9345

Based on this we can expect the PD for EB2-I to be 01-OCT-2006 if the 12K numbers are infused in the system. If not I think these will certailnly come to us in Jul.

[bieber]

kd2008

I didnot mean to direct that post at you, I'm deleting my post too :)

[pch053]

Guys I have my priority date at Feb 29, 2008. When do you think it could be current based on revised predictions.

My hunch is that Feb'08 PD will be current sometime between June - Sep'12; we will get a clearer picture in the next few months.

[anuran]

Fingers crossed for that Feb'08 PD. As far as I can see, there is potential for a PD movement like that. Cheers.

[Gclongwait]

Fingers crossed for that Feb'08 PD. As far as I can see, there is potential for a PD movement like that. Cheers.

I agree with the above. I myself have a jan 08 PD and while I dont think I have any hopes of a GC in the next few months, I think there is a fair chance of being able to file I-485 in the next 3/4 mnths. Its impossible to predict what they will do once the dates hit Aug 07 or once they realize they have more than enough visas to clear the backlog.

[pch053]

Another link on the 12K FD to EB2; doesn't provide any new information but describes again on how spillover is handled amongst retrogressed countries:
http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2Story.htm

[srinivasj]

Another link on the 12K FD to EB2; doesn't provide any new information but describes again on how spillover is handled amongst retrogressed countries:
http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2Story.htm

"The State Department is about to start allocating more than 12,000 extra visa numbers to EB2 applicants. Most will go to applicants from India. The EB2 India date in the May Visa Bulletin will advance for the first time since September, 2010. EB2 India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006."

interesting statement where he/she mentions India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006.

[gcseeker]

Pch

Actually I feel it might not take till June 2012 ,if the USCIS advances all the way to Aug 2007 in the May/June VB the dates will not probably move much till the end of the year.If they move it only till April 2007 ...chances are highly improved they will push it all the way to Dec 2007 or Jan 2008 ...so you might get to file much sooner.Again this is all gut feeling , cannot back it up by numbers.

Mine is in Nov 2007 and I am expecting USCIS will probably move the Post Aug 2007/Sep 2007 group of apps along with the 2008 ones in a chunk movement and not in increments.


My hunch is that Feb'08 PD will be current sometime between June - Sep'12; we will get a clearer picture in the next few months.

[gcwait2007]

Hi Q,

I note that you have updated the opening thread in the first page, with my quote of numbers. Thanks for the same.

Can you please revise them as follows:

Low / Pessimistic: 28K

High/ Optimistic: 34K

Net SOFAD estimated: 30K

PD cut off date: March 2007.

Thanks,
GCW'07

[soggadu]

I thought my pd would be current ( Oct 2007 ) but looks like there are lot of *'s(if's and when's) attached to it... Damn it...

[qesehmk]

New to this blog! Q, it's good.

....
But anyways, am readying 485 documents needed just in case.
Nishant welcome. Thanks for kind words. Lots of people are doing a lot of good work and generally they respect each other here. So the credit goes to many many people you will come across here.


Guys I have my priority date at Feb 29, 2008. When do you think it could be current based on revised predictions.
I agree w what PCH said. Likely Jun-Sep 2012.


Hi Q,

I note that you have updated the opening thread in the first page, with my quote of numbers. Thanks for the same.

Can you please revise them as follows:

Thanks GCW. Apprecaite it. I have updated teh header.

[geevikram]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

May 2011 DOS Demand Data.. Let number crunching begin :)

[hsinghjkaur]

The demand data hasn't changed, so the predictions are the same. Visa bulletin generally comes a day after the demand data. However if a government shutdown happens, the visa bulletin might get delayed unless they release that today.

[gcwait2007]

DoS demand data published : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Calculated break-up month wise as given below:

Month India China Cumu Total

May-06 1312 0 1312
Jun-06 1696 0 3008
Jul-06 1505 265 4778
Aug-06 1677 693 7148
Sep-06 1745 773 9666
Oct-06 1747 732 12145
Nov-06 1737 667 14549
Dec-06 1881 770 17200

If 12K visas are allocated in May'11 VB, then cut off date will be 10/22/2006.

[nayekal]

Did you mean to Sept 22nd or Oct 22nd?
Until Sept, we have only 9666, so I believe we should cross Sept and move into Oct.

[gcwait2007]

Did you mean to Sept 22nd or Oct 22nd?
Until Sept, we have only 9666, so I believe we should cross Sept and move into Oct.

Thanks for point out the typo. Corrected now.

[nayekal]

GCwait2007,
As per your data for Oct..the grand total is 12145.
Oct-06 1747 732 12145

We have a monthly quota of 240 per month for each India and China, which adds up to 12625. Does it mean, we have chances to see the bulletin hitting Nov 2006 as well.

[arorasa]

:mad: Crap

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html

[gcseek]

It is out. 01 JUL 2006.

[arorasa]

ITS all about the porting folks.

"D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

[viypr07]

"No August or September estimate is possible at this time. " Thats when the normal spillover kicks in correct?

[pch053]

2 months movement might not be that bad after all. It says that it will move one or more weeks for EB2-I in the next couple of bulletins; so it might push that PD to Aug'06 during July bulletin. The final push might come during the Aug - Sep bulletins which (i hope) will push the PDs to somewhere in 2007.

[pch053]

"No August or September estimate is possible at this time. " Thats when the normal spillover kicks in correct?

Yes, that's true. In the past couple of years the normal spillover has been mainly from EB2-ROW and EB5 and this year the additional numbers are from EB1.

[TeddyKoochu]

Good News Overall that finally EB2-I moved but definitely short of expectations by atleast 3 months. I believe the full 12K was not allocated we should see forward movement in June hopefully as well. I believe that porting number is the uncertainity or is being grossly over-estimated.

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

[bieber]

Teddy

have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'

looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,

just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000 :)

[TeluguBidda]

Good News Overall that finally EB2-I moved but definitely short of expectations by atleast 3 months.

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known.

This does not appear to be good news. DOS has stated that porting is "very high" and it appears like we will not see a whole lot of movement in Q4

[veni001]

EB2I & EB2C are not showing same PD in May 2011 VB and I am wondering how do they apply Spillover VISAs now? in-addition monthly quota:confused:

[bieber]

it's hilarious, porting numbers are not showing up in the demand data but impacting the date movement

[pch053]

Isn't the spill over supposed to go to EB2-I as long as the EB2-I dates are lagging behind EB2-C dates, meaning for the next bulletin the spillover will primarily be going to EB2-I?

[veni001]

Teddy

have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'

looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,

just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000 :)

Possibility of another 12K for EB1 is high by end of FY2011?

From May 2011 VB "At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years."

[viypr07]

EB2I & EB2C are not showing same PD in May 2011 VB and I am wondering how do they apply Spillover VISAs now? in-addition monthly quota:confused:

If you compare with april bulletin, eb2c moved by one week. (22 jul 06 to 01 aug 2006). that looks like normal quota.they have rationed out the excess unused numbers and those were only enough to get eb2i till 1 jul 06 from 08 may 06. my 2 cents.

[veni001]

From May 2011 VB

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal, in an attempt to ascertain the amount of “upgrade” demand in the pipeline while at the same time administering use of the available numbers. This action risks a surge in demand that could adversely impact the cut-off date later in the fiscal year. However, it also limits the possibility that potential demand would not materialize and the annual limit would not be reached due to lack of cut-off date movement"

above two statements contradict each other!

Unless there is lot of porting from ROW i don't think there will be any surge of new applications with only 2-3 month forward movement to EB2IC.

Remember EB2I&C were at 01AUG2006 in September 2008.

[zenmaster]

KLPD ? or may be not yet ? undecided :P

[bieber]

Possibility of another 12K for EB1 is high by end of FY2011?

From May 2011 VB "At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years."

Veni001

do you mean total EB1 Spilldown will be 24k?
It looks like they just want to test the waters with possible 485 filings from May-July2006 period

[nayekal]

Quote from visa bulletin
under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Does this mean, EB2 I annual limit of 2800 is completely used, which means these visa numbers are allocated for people who ported from EB3 I to EB2 I. So, for half year, this is the kind of porting numbers we are seeing, then it means for a full year it might be close to 6000 or more.

[veni001]

If you compare with april bulletin, eb2c moved by one week. (22 jul 06 to 01 aug 2006). that looks like normal quota.they have rationed out the excess unused numbers and those were only enough to get eb2i till 1 jul 06 from 08 may 06. my 2 cents.

Unless there is 6K porting(Eb3-Eb2) pending(or DOS&USCIS expecting 6k porting in the next 30 days) i don't think they can use all 12k( let's hope this # is correct) spillover.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'

looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,

just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000 :)

I believe that we will get atleast 15K from EB2 ROW, on trackitt the usage is 60% when compared to last year.

[veni001]

Quote from visa bulletin
under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Does this mean, EB2 I annual limit of 2800 is completely used, which means these visa numbers are allocated for people who ported from EB3 I to EB2 I. So, for half year, this is the kind of porting numbers we are seeing, then it means for a full year it might be close to 6000 or more.

Looks like it!
May be USCIS is using different monthly allocation for EB2I

[TeddyKoochu]

Isn't the spill over supposed to go to EB2-I as long as the EB2-I dates are lagging behind EB2-C dates, meaning for the next bulletin the spillover will primarily be going to EB2-I?

I believe that what they have given is 4.5K which is the inventory demand till Jul 2006, China is still moving by its own cap as India and China dates are different. This is really over-caution on porting if the 12K news is correct.

[viypr07]

Unless there is 6K porting(Eb3-Eb2) pending(or DOS&USCIS expecting 6k porting in the next 30 days) i don't think they can use all 12k( let's hope this # is correct) spillover.

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

[veni001]

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

Let's hope so!

[srinivasj]

by very conservative estimate if dates move to end of year 2006 in July bulletin when the final spillover is applied....how long would it take for the dates to cross january 2007..?

[nayekal]

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

I am confused. Normal spillover should kick in from July itself and that is the start of 4rth quarter. In bulletin, they gave an estimate for China.
China: none to three weeks expected through July.

Which means, they are assuming that China will still use its own allocated visa numbers and India depends on spill over. If this is the case, then China will be ahead of India and we will still stuck some where in August or Sept, by July.

This is surprising and also depressing.

[gcseek]

So, the calculation may be as follows :

1. Regular EB2 - Upto Jun-end - 3008
2. Porting Till May bulletin : 2800 + something (something = allocated for may - 3008).
3. China is getting its regular quota, but Aug PD onwards, will share the spillover with India.

Is that what we are given to understand? Comments?

On a lighter side, can EB3 guys contribute here?

[veni001]

Veni001

do you mean total EB1 Spilldown will be 24k?
It looks like they just want to test the waters with possible 485 filings from May-July2006 period

Biber,
Yes 24k for the entire FY 2011 from EB1, unless the ported applications are already in the pipeline, i don't think USCIS see any change in the demand for May 2011.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

So here comes the bulletin! And it didnt disappoint AT ALL. Here is the reason why.

1. DOS admitted there is significant underutilization in EB1. This is the ultimate thing for EB2. All of them fall straight into EB2. Plus all of EB5 falls into EB2.
2. DOS also mentioned that China and ROW EB2 are within their bounds. In other words the numbers will mostly come to EB2IC whenever they start allocating by PD in EB2.
3. By way of 2 above - DOS hasn't started allocating by PD (in other words FD and FA is still not occuring.
4. Inspite of 1,2,3 above, DOS still moved the dates. And this is the most interesting part. If you read carefully, they say they moved the date to test the upgrade demand in pipeline. Now since we don't see EB3 unusual reduction in numbers in EB3I, that is a perfect indication that porting is not that high (i.e. 10-15K). Rather it is 4-5-6K. However from DOS perspective 4-5-6K demand would still keep India retrogressed and hence the DOS observation that porting is high. DOS also acknowedged that the high demand may not materialize. In my opinion they should know exactly what the porting is because they must be cancelling the EB3 related to a porting. So they can easily extrapolate. So this beats me a little bit why they need to separately ascertain porting by moving dates 2 months. May be they have some internal visibility issues.

BOTTOMLINE: No harm is done. Our predictions are on track. As we said earlier, its just a matter of time when FD FA start materializing.

Note - There is still some risk that EB1 usage may surge or EB2 ROW may surge. The former is medium. The latter is low. But all of that is built into predictions.

[pch053]

I agree and based on USCIS's low demand of EB1, I will assume the spill over number to be higher than 12K for the entire year. But, we are not seeing it's reflection in the visa bulletin (at least the May bulletin). On the other hand, they say EB3->EB2 porting is very high but again we are not seeing it in the visa numbers in terms of reduction in EB3I pending applicants.

[gcseeker]

Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .






I agree and based on USCIS's low demand of EB1, I will assume the spill over number to be higher than 12K for the entire year. But, we are not seeing it's reflection in the visa bulletin (at least the May bulletin). On the other hand, they say EB3->EB2 porting is very high but again we are not seeing it in the visa numbers in terms of reduction in EB3I pending applicants.

[admin]

gcseeker

the situation you describe is possible. But consider this, if EB2I porting were more than 2.8K (for PD prior to May-06), then the dates would've retrogressed. Since we didn't see that ... it does mean porting is within 2.8K for dates prior to May 06. The question is how much is post may 06. And that's what DOS is going to test with the 2 month movement. In my opinion this isnot quite necessary. But its their call.


Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .

[gcseeker]

Q

Pretty good catch .Yup definetly the dates would have retrogressed .I have seen some polls on trackitt and some as in the link below where most of the cases being ported seem to be from 2006 and beyond instead of the EB3 cases from 2002.

It might be a sign of behavioural psychology where people with EB3 dates close to 2003 seem to beleive they will get the gc within a couple of years and do not want to spend the 10,000 for porting.....

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/03/eb3-to-eb2-porting-calculations-part-ii.html

It might not continue to be the same if EB2 moves rapidly. USCIS seems to be testing the waters to get an idea for this.


gcseeker

the situation you describe is possible. But consider this, if EB2I porting were more than 2.8K (for PD prior to May-06), then the dates would've retrogressed. Since we didn't see that ... it does mean porting is within 2.8K for dates prior to May 06. The question is how much is post may 06. And that's what DOS is going to test with the 2 month movement. In my opinion this isnot quite necessary. But its their call.

[pch053]

Good points! So, if we have high porting (say > 6K), then at least at the end of the year when the porting cases have been approved, we should see a reduction in EB3 pending cases, right? So, based on the pending EB3 numbers in the Oct bulletin, we should be able to deduce roughly how many EB3 cases were ported to EB2. This is more of an after thought rather than prediction but at least it will give us a better idea on what realistic porting numbers can be in the coming years.

[Gclongwait]

Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .

Assuming that the EB3 demand may not reduce even after porting to EB2, what other way do we have to say what porting numbers are. The dates did not retrogess but it seems like they have been allocating more than the monthly quota of 280 just to keep the dates at the same level (since EB2I has already finished its 2800 allocation).

Is there any reason to believe that the entire 12000 has not already been allocated in May (which is what they said would be done) which would mean that porting is at

porting = 12000 + 2800 - x
where x = 2 months fwd movement worth of visas.

Have porting been grossly underestimated due to false impression that EB3 demand would drop or dates would retrogess?

[gcseeker]

Pch

Yup you are right.Looking at the Oct bulletin should definetly give some hints to predict the porting numbers for the future.

Gclongwait

I do beleive porting has been underestimated based on the calculation of EB3 pending inventory . Also it is very hard to estimate due to crowd psychology being involved here. The Oct bulletin should prove this clearly whether porting is small or huge.

Personal experience traversing the other forums and trackitt pages not based on inventory has been people are porting in higher numbers than estimated.Many of them caught in the endless EB3 loop are frustated .


Good points! So, if we have high porting (say > 6K), then at least at the end of the year when the porting cases have been approved, we should see a reduction in EB3 pending cases, right? So, based on the pending EB3 numbers in the Oct bulletin, we should be able to deduce roughly how many EB3 cases were ported to EB2. This is more of an after thought rather than prediction but at least it will give us a better idea on what realistic porting numbers can be in the coming years.

[qesehmk]

To answer question below: Lets assume 12K is available and is being distributed in the order of PD. Now since prior to may dates didn't retrogress and now the 12K is helping avoid retrogression May onwards - would mean that porting suddently jumped in May almost by 12K or a little less than that. The probability of any such thing happening is extremely low. Right?




Is there any reason to believe that the entire 12000 has not already been allocated in May (which is what they said would be done) which would mean that porting is at

porting = 12000 + 2800 - x
where x = 2 months fwd movement worth of visas.

[nayekal]

To answer question below: Lets assume 12K is available and is being distributed in the order of PD. Now since prior to may dates didn't retrogress and now the 12K is helping avoid retrogression May onwards - would mean that porting suddently jumped in May almost by 12K or a little less than that. The probability of any such thing happening is extremely low. Right?

Eb2 I pending numbers for May + June = 3008
1200+2800-3008 = 11792.
50% of primary applicants = 5896.

May be they are anticipating this number of porting apps up to May and June.

[pch053]

I feel it is a gross overestimation of assuming ~6K primary applicants (~12K pending EB3) will be porting in next 2 - 3 months. If this really happens, EB3-I pending inventory should reduce by 15K - 20K by Oct'11 from Oct'10 pending EB3 numbers. I am inclined to believe Q's notion that USCIS is moving the dates cautiously and testing waters a bit. I hope this optimistic line of thought holds true!

[qesehmk]

I think, splitting applications into primary and dependent doesn't change anything because then you couldve done the same on portings prior to may-06.

Its the quantum jump between may & post-may that we are questioning. Would there reallly be that kind of jump? I think not. That makes me believe that the 12K is really not there at all. They have simply opened the window to assess how much the demand exceed when done on only two months. And then accordingly they will likely move dates when FD FA happens.

And actually that brings us to a very good point which I forgot to make earlier. DOS most likely will NOT open the floodgates. Their move of 2 months to test waters tells us that they will move dates in a very controlled manner. So bummer for the people waiting to file. Sorry guys. I wish I am wrong on this one.


Eb2 I pending numbers for May + June = 3008
1200+2800-3008 = 11792.
50% of primary applicants = 5896.

May be they are anticipating this number of porting apps up to May and June.

[veni001]

I think, splitting applications into primary and dependent doesn't change anything because then you couldve done the same on portings prior to may-06.

Its the quantum jump between may & post-may that we are questioning. Would there reallly be that kind of jump? I think not. That makes me believe that the 12K is really not there at all. They have simply opened the window to assess how much the demand exceed when done on only two months. And then accordingly they will likely move dates when FD FA happens.

And actually that brings us to a very good point which I forgot to make earlier. DOS most likely will NOT open the floodgates. Their move of 2 months to test waters tells us that they will move dates in a very controlled manner. So bummer for the people waiting to file. Sorry guys. I wish I am wrong on this one.

Q,
Either that or they are using 12k between May and June (assume dates will move 2 more months in June VB) and test the water before applying SOFAD!

[qesehmk]

Oh yeah. Agree. So what you are saying is ... the 12K is there and will be utilized on whatever porting is there for Jun/Jul. So assuming there is no quantum jump... almost all of that 12K remains intact (less 3K inventory for the two additional months).

Thanks veni. Good point. So here is how it works

12K = 3K + porting (P) + L (leftover of 12K)
where USCIS is trying to guage how big P & K are and accordingly will set dates in Jun / Jul / Aug.



Q,
Either that or they are using 12k between May and June (assume dates will move 2 more months in June VB) and test the water before applying SOFAD!

[veni001]

Oh yeah. Agree. So what you are saying is ... the 12K is there and will be utilized on whatever porting is there for Jun/Jul. So assuming there is no quantum jump... almost all of that 12K remains intact (less 3K inventory for the two additional months).

Thanks veni. Good point. So here is how it works

12K = 3K + porting (P) + L (leftover of 12K)
where USCIS is trying to guage how big P & K are and accordingly will set dates in Jun / Jul / Aug.

Q,
Yes, i think we will have better picture once USCIS update inventory data next week( let's hope) and DOS update demand data for June, next month!

[shaumack]

Q,
Yes, i think we will have better picture once USCIS update inventory data next week( let's hope) and DOS update demand data for June, next month!

Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb2-india-and-china-fy-2011-movement.html

[veni001]

Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb2-india-and-china-fy-2011-movement.html
Shumack,
It looks like DOS/USCIS want to play safe until last quarter, so we may not see any sudden jumps in PD movement in coming months. I am not convinced with the EB3-EB2 porting references, unless half of INDIA PERM approvals are porting cases(chances are very less) from last two quarters.

One more time PERM certification data for Q4 FY2010 and Q1FY2011
2010(July-Aug-Sept)
IND - 7,617
CH- 606
M&P - 1,307
ROW -5,760
Total(EB2&3):15,290

2010(Oct-Nov-Dec)

IND - 9,299
CH- 1,004
M&P - 1,456
ROW -6,596
Total(EB2&3):18,355

and I-140 completions( all EB, all countries) from October 2010 till January 2011 is 23,117 only. I don't think the porting application will suddenly comes out of Blue:)

[qesehmk]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.
Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb2-india-and-china-fy-2011-movement.html

[veni001]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.

Q,
Agree, even if they move dates in the last month(sept) of FY they can use-up all SOFAD!

[veni001]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.
Q,
You are correct with this one too.

[qesehmk]

LoL !!! You never know!


Q,
You are correct with this one too.

[veni001]

Only two EB2I approvals on the "other" site since April 01, 2011.

[nuvikas]

Only two EB2I approvals on the "other" site since April 01, 2011.

What other site? Q started this forum because there were restrictions in immigrationvoice.org to refer other sites. There are no such restrictions here. Please disclose the source.

[nayekal]

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.

[veni001]

What other site? Q started this forum because there were restrictions in immigrationvoice.org to refer other sites. There are no such restrictions here. Please disclose the source.

Nuvikas,
I am referring to trackitt.

[qesehmk]

Nayekal

I see it only as a rumour and don't see facts and analysis behind what is being said here. So we probably should ignore it.


04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.


Nuvikas,
I am referring to trackitt.

All ... yep ! We don't just tolerate references but we encourage them. It is important that credit to the source of information must be attributed in the right manner.

[Gclongwait]

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.

Sorry, did not understand the big deal about this. They seem to be assuming that 12000 will be the total spillover for the fiscal year. If thats the case then they are probably right but we know this is not true. Its probably going to be 30000+.

[raj888]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/index5.html

[veni001]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/index5.html

Looks like lot of unknown unknowns!! limiting VISA Spillover and Fall Across?

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Welcome. Good post.

This explains in very easy terms why SOFAD is primarily applied in Q4 and why we see significant date movements in Q4 (only).


"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/index5.html

[leo07]

I think CIS+DOS together have lot less unknowns now than a year ago.Pressure/lobbying from AILA to hold-on to EB2 movements until last quarter, combined with some 'unknown' w.r.t upgrades is the cause for sluggish EB2 movements.

DOS wants to go very conservatively so as to avoid any potential law-suits or infamous publicity for not allocating a well deserved EB2-ROW or EB3-EB2 upgrade a visa, by aggressively moving dates.

I do believe the numbers are still the same, may be a grand more on the upgrades side, but the dates will move nevertheless by last quarter.


Looks like lot of unknown unknowns!! limiting VISA Spillover and Fall Across?

[anuran]

IN addition Ron's views can also be construed as there is going to be very little movement of dates in June bulletin. I am optimistically looking at between 2 to 7 weeks. Would be glad if they do another 7.

[leo07]

Q, I don't think that upper-limit applies to spillovers. If that's the case there's no real definition of quarterly Spillover, which they say they do all the time.( we all know they don't :)). my point is more on the lingo of quarterly spill-over. If that definition/lingo exists, it means the limit doesn't?

Thanks. Welcome. Good post.

This explains in very easy terms why SOFAD is primarily applied in Q4 and why we see significant date movements in Q4 (only).

[qesehmk]

Agree that spillovers don't take place. However, spillovers can still happen within the 30% limit (if they chose to do it). Essentially one could (theoretically) applied spillover till you hit 30% ceiling.

p.s. - I do not know whether SPILLOVERs are mandatory or nice-to-haves from legal perspective. Would be interesting if anybody can dig the information.



Q, I don't think that upper-limit applies to spillovers. If that's the case there's no real definition of quarterly Spillover, which they say they do all the time.( we all know they don't :)). my point is more on the lingo of quarterly spill-over. If that definition/lingo exists, it means the limit doesn't?

[donvar]

Q

Pretty good catch .Yup definetly the dates would have retrogressed .
[/url]

It might not continue to be the same if EB2 moves rapidly. USCIS seems to be testing the waters to get an idea for this.

Not necessarily that since the dates have not retrogressed, porting cases are less than or equal to India's annual quota. They may not have retrogressed the dates and left it like that hoping that 12K will remove the need to move the dates back. Retrogressing the dates reflect badly on their performance.

In the normal cases spillover was done in the last quarter, but now they talked about it in June means that
1) either there are quite lot of porting cases and so they want to do a mid year spillover (12K) to not to retrogress the dates (purely for their performance reason as retrogressing dates reflect badly on them)
OR
2) They are worried that they will not be able to allocate the (12K++ EB1) visas in the last quarter.

Otherwise they would not have talked about mid year (12K) spillover in June. Also their statement "very high porting" means the first case.

I believe porting is in the range of 10,000 K/pa. I am sure Q must have done an analysis on the Perm data to gauge the porting because that it the only way we can get an idea of that, IF WE CAN.


Q

It might be a sign of behavioral psychology where people with EB3 dates close to 2003 seem to believe they will get the gc within a couple of years and do not want to spend the 10,000 for porting.....



My assumption is that more cases from 2006 and beyond simply mean that brisk desi consultancy money for porting business from people who are already with Consultants or came through consultants, people from earlier years are reluctant to port as they are settled down, they know it will take them years to get GC even with their 2003 or 2004 PDs.

[donvar]

Q

I have not followed your analysis thoroughly but cannot we get an general idea about the porting from the Perm data for last year. Something like surge in EB2 India applications in the last year.
I will just say EB2 India only because genuine porting (people changing the Job for EB2 position) is very less. Well of course people can port for a future job as well.

[qesehmk]

Don

A number of people on this forum have done good calculations and come to conclusion that porting is between 4-6K in total (i.e. for all possible dates). You can find it in the prior pages (but i admit its a pain to go back 46 pages!!).

And yes that analysis is based on trackitt and labor data.


Q

I have not followed your analysis thoroughly but cannot we get an general idea about the porting from the Perm data for last year. Something like surge in EB2 India applications in the last year.
I will just say EB2 India only because genuine porting (people changing the Job for EB2 position) is very less. Well of course people can port for a future job as well.

[veni001]

Not necessarily that since the dates have not retrogressed, porting cases are less than or equal to India's annual quota. They may not have retrogressed the dates and left it like that hoping that 12K will remove the need to move the dates back. Retrogressing the dates reflect badly on their performance.

In the normal cases spillover was done in the last quarter, but now they talked about it in June means that
1) either there are quite lot of porting cases and so they want to do a mid year spillover (12K) to not to retrogress the dates (purely for their performance reason as retrogressing dates reflect badly on them)
OR
2) They are worried that they will not be able to allocate the (12K++ EB1) visas in the last quarter.

Otherwise they would not have talked about mid year (12K) spillover in June. Also their statement "very high porting" means the first case.

I believe porting is in the range of 10,000 K/pa. I am sure Q must have done an analysis on the Perm data to gauge the porting because that it the only way we can get an idea of that, IF WE CAN.



My assumption is that more cases from 2006 and beyond simply mean that brisk desi consultancy money for porting business from people who are already with Consultants or came through consultants, people from earlier years are reluctant to port as they are settled down, they know it will take them years to get GC even with their 2003 or 2004 PDs.

donvar,

If you look at PERM trending for FY2011 is almost same as FY 2010, based on for FY 2011 Q1 update.

I-140 trending is also same
October 2009 - January 2010 - Total i-140 completions = 23,512
October 2010- January 2011 - Total i-140 completions = 23,117

We know there is substantial decrease in EB1 which means FY2011 may have higher % EB2 i-140 compared to FY 2010. But what % of them are porting is a big question?

As i stated in my earlier post ,unless half of EB2I PERM approvals are porting cases in the last two quarters,12k porting is not a possibility.
(Note:2011 ROW PERM approval numbers are less than or equal to 2010 ROW PERM approval numbers)

[Osaka001]

Hi,
I just calculated PERM approval for India based on PD(year), I dont know how useful it is, but just want to share with you.

PD_Year Total Cumulative_Description
2006 25703 (14K approved in '06 + 11K in '07 + 108 in '08 + 50 in '09 + 11 in '10)
2007 23011 (12719 approved in '07 + 8335 in '08 + 927 in '09 + 1005 in '10)
2008 22885 (8K apporved in '08 + 10K in '09 + 4381 in '10)
2009 15146 (15K in '10)
2010 17659 (9K in '10 + 8K in '11 Q1)

How ever this would not give us, How many EB2 or EB3 numbers, and also how many are porting cases or new cases?.
If they are all new cases, as every one knows , there is more concentration in '06, '07 and '08.
If most of them are porting cases with PD earlier than '06 then most of them already greened/ or going to green.

[soggadu]

a question/discussion to/for Q and all senior members....

IMO even a small % of spillover is also not yet applied... because when spillover occurs India and china need to be on same cut off date which is not seen in May bulletin...

So are we in for a big move (18 months last year) this time too?

Why i ask this... my pd is in Oct 2007...

[veni001]

a question/discussion to/for Q and all senior members....

IMO even a small % of spillover is also not yet applied... because when spillover occurs India and china need to be on same cut off date which is not seen in May bulletin...

So are we in for a big move (18 months last year) this time too?

Why i ask this... my pd is in Oct 2007...

Soggadu,
May or May not, 2005 had very less filings compared to 2006 or 2007 so any forward movement depends on total SOFAD available by July 2011.

[anuran]

Soggadu,
I agree with veni001's assessment. Late2006 to mid2007 per mensum EB2 I-485 filing density is very high. CIS needs not only a decent spillover number but also quite a bit of will power to wade through the pending applications. Positive aspects - many of them are preadjudicated. Negatives: Apart from the density, DoS states that upgrading/porting applications might throw a wrench in CIS's processing speed. But estimated spillovers will force them to work fast or CIS may waste visas at the end of the FY. DoS no like waste. :)

PS: I have a graph of pending application at papyh.tumblr.com

[ifaith]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/index5.html

Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

ifaith

That's poor choice of words by Ron. He means he is cautiously optimistic that the dates will move much more in Q4.


Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks

[leo07]

I asked Ron about it. Let's see what he comes back with. Basically, I thought only Ron can know what he really 'meant'? :)

Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

I only responded to iFaiths question and explained what I thought it meant


... only Ron can know what he really 'meant'? :)

[leo07]

:) I had the same question as iFaith when I read Ron's comment. I thought it could have been a poor choice of words( like you did ) or some inconclusive chain of thought.

I only responded to iFaiths question and explained what I thought it meant


Here is Ron's response for the same. This must bring cloture to question: "No, I think that we will see more movement than we have seen in the last couple of fiscal years. The numbers of visas available for this year's fourth quarter should be higher than what we have seen in the recent past. I really don't expect to see any miracles from the CIS (that is, I don't expect to see them step up and start approving cases at a faster rate), so the supply will be higher and the known demand will stay about the same. This should cause faster cutoff date movement in order to attract more cases for consular processing."

[qesehmk]

Glad to know that my interpretation was good.

I think he is right on Q4 spillover. He may be right on date movement. But he is dead wrong on USCIS' ability to utilize visas.

With so many preadj cases, USCIS will be able to utilize all visas without any doubt.


:) I had the same question as iFaith when I read Ron's comment. I thought it could have been a poor choice of words( like you did ) or some inconclusive chain of thought.



Here is Ron's response for the same. This must bring cloture to question: "No, I think that we will see more movement than we have seen in the last couple of fiscal years. The numbers of visas available for this year's fourth quarter should be higher than what we have seen in the recent past. I really don't expect to see any miracles from the CIS (that is, I don't expect to see them step up and start approving cases at a faster rate), so the supply will be higher and the known demand will stay about the same. This should cause faster cutoff date movement in order to attract more cases for consular processing."

[bieber]

Q

If DOS moves dates cautiously and spillover levels will be as per your calculations here, then visa wastage is bound to happen, do u agree?

If they don't allow new I485s now (in intervals), they will most likely have to open gates at somepoint, which will be very good for me, looking at the direction they are going it may become reality soon

[qesehmk]

In that case teh visas will fall down to EB3. But they won't be wasted.

The situation when spillover > EB2 485 cases waiting for visa AND USCIS doesn't move dates far beyond Jul 2007 is difficult to fathom. Since a 485 case usually takes at least 3 months to process ... if indeed spillover is going to be that big AND USCIS hasn't moved dates means:

1. The spillover is not that high inthe first place.
2. USCIS is ok with FD from EB2 to EB3 but is not ok with moving dates aggressively ahead.

We will know better next month. My hunch is 1 is true rather than #2


Q

If DOS moves dates cautiously and spillover levels will be as per your calculations here, then visa wastage is bound to happen, do u agree?

If they don't allow new I485s now (in intervals), they will most likely have to open gates at somepoint, which will be very good for me, looking at the direction they are going it may become reality soon

[leo07]

Yes. I think whether CIS would waste visas this year or not is debatable. Like bieber pointed out, if they wait until September to move dates for EB2, then they could end up wasting some visas. Plus, the disorderly allocation of visas is inevitable in that case.

On contrary, TSC has been sitting on 140's for a while now, when they begin to come out, it could throw some numbers off.( my 140 is stuck there for 181 days:()


Glad to know that my interpretation was good.

I think he is right on Q4 spillover. He may be right on date movement. But he is dead wrong on USCIS' ability to utilize visas.

With so many preadj cases, USCIS will be able to utilize all visas without any doubt.

[qesehmk]

Dude .... do you really think they will waste visas when they have at least 100K preadj cases in EB alone? Do really think that rather than going the visas waste they won't fall-down to EB3?



Yes. I think whether CIS would waste visas this year or not is debatable. Like bieber pointed out, if they wait until September to move dates for EB2, then they could end up wasting some visas. Plus, the disorderly allocation of visas is inevitable in that case.

On contrary, TSC has been sitting on 140's for a while now, when they begin to come out, it could throw some numbers off.( my 140 is stuck there for 181 days:()

[bieber]

Q,
yes, they can use those visas for EB3. do you see keeping EB2 not current and allocating EB2 visas to EB3 as a possibility? Still under the assumption of spillover > pending(pre-adjudicated) 485s

[leo07]

Honestly, Yes, I can see that happening if they wait until September. because they will have only 18-20 working days to play with. Unless they have a plan in place already, which I doubt, to allocate visas to EB3 as well.

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble:)


Dude .... do you really think they will waste visas when they have at least 100K preadj cases in EB alone? Do really think that rather than going the visas waste they won't fall-down to EB3?

[anuran]

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble:)

CIS can pull of anything and not get into trouble. One such is the report that CIS, in the past, has approved 485s without PD being current.

[leo07]

yes, I have seen those cases:). In all practical sense, CIS has no incentive to allocate visas to EB3 over EB2. All, I'm saying is they will not go out of their way to help anybody, but try to work within the framework as much as possible.

CIS can pull of anything and not get into trouble. One such is the report that CIS, in the past, has approved 485s without PD being current.

[qesehmk]

Bieber

If you look at EB1, USCIS has preferred to keep the category current before allowing any FDs to EB2. So that is why I think that EB2 should be current before any FD is allowed to EB3.

If SpOv > EB2-485; then dates must move aggressively at latest in Jun to avoid visa wastage or spillover to EB3. I think it is already late to move dates if SpOv > EB2-485 were the case.

And so I think that is NOT the case. Hope I am wrong on this one!




Q,
yes, they can use those visas for EB3. do you see keeping EB2 not current and allocating EB2 visas to EB3 as a possibility? Still under the assumption of spillover > pending(pre-adjudicated) 485s

[leo07]

Q, I agree with your equation. I think that by June 1st approvable 485 cases for (EB1+EB2) will be much less than available Visas( visas in hand ). That is Where DOS has to gamble, IMO

[pch053]

I just hope that USCIS doesn't waste visas during spillover; since the overall visa numbers have been properly utilized in the last few years, I am somewhat hopeful that visas won't be wasted this year too. On a related note, does USCIS issue RFEs on already pre-adjudicated cases, especially if the pre-adjudication date is a bit old. For example, if someone's case was pre-adjudicated 2 years back is there a strong possibility that USCIS will issue RFE on employment verification, W2, paystubs, etc. I am asking this because if USCIS moves the dates only during Aug-Sep and there are lots of RFEs (like the ones described above), USCIS might not have ample time to adjudicate those cases by end of Sep (which essentially means that those visas will be wasted for FY11).

[haripathhi]

I totally agree with pch.There is a strong possibility of the RFE's being issued on pre-adjudicated cases by the USCIS in this current economy.


I just hope that USCIS doesn't waste visas during spillover; since the overall visa numbers have been properly utilized in the last few years, I am somewhat hopeful that visas won't be wasted this year too. On a related note, does USCIS issue RFEs on already pre-adjudicated cases, especially if the pre-adjudication date is a bit old. For example, if someone's case was pre-adjudicated 2 years back is there a strong possibility that USCIS will issue RFE on employment verification, W2, paystubs, etc. I am asking this because if USCIS moves the dates only during Aug-Sep and there are lots of RFEs (like the ones described above), USCIS might not have ample time to adjudicate those cases by end of Sep (which essentially means that those visas will be wasted for FY11).

[TeddyKoochu]

Honestly, Yes, I can see that happening if they wait until September. because they will have only 18-20 working days to play with. Unless they have a plan in place already, which I doubt, to allocate visas to EB3 as well.

I think that by September 30th, even if there are handful of EB3s approved ahead of Eb2s they are really in trouble. There must be well choreographed act to not get into any sort of trouble:)

Guys I remember there was a discussion long back on this when we tried to explain the high number of approvals in Oct. That time it was reasoned out that the cap number was allocated in September. So for this scenario I feel that 2 months should be good time to at least attach the cap number so probably Aug is ok Sep maybe late. Leo please pray for me this way you are also assured your 485 :)

[nayekal]

Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

[nayekal]

Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

Sorry. My earlier link, didn't work
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/demand-data-clarification-13933/

[qesehmk]

nayekal the inventory says that it includes consular processing applications as well. So yes there are some apps for which the date was never current .... yet people could apply under CP.

Not sure if you are referring to something else? Pls explain ...


Sorry guys. It was not my intention to divert your attention from the current topic, but I couldn't resist in posting this info, which I find it very interesting and for you guys analyze.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/de

Basically talking about the demand data, I always thought the numbers listed are for only for those apps with I485 being applied and probably pre-adjudicated or not. But, we never accounted for those cases where some one pays an invoice fee for IV Application process (currently $794.00), then these cases will appear in demand data.
People who have their PD's with I140's approved within 12-18 months of the current date, will receive these invoices (but not every one) and among them few people might pay off these fees and send their application files. These apps for both primary and dependants might be added to demand data, but still not eligible for visa numbers as they are not current.

[nayekal]

Q, what I am thinking is may be we have these kind of apps included in demand data for EB2 I & C before 2007 as well.
For example, we have 17200 pending for visa numbers prior to Jan 2007, say out of which we might have 400 of these cases
which will never have a visa number allocated until their PD's fall within current dates.
With this assumption, I believe, the spillover number that could applied can be greater than the number suggested in demand data, which we are seeing.

Also, I read in some forums (will try to provide reference later), few people will start receiving this kind of invoices when NVC predicts their PD's will become current in next 6 months or so. Last week, one of my colleague received it with a pd of Oct 2007.

[qesehmk]

Yes. That's true. But at the same time remember there are some 485 applications that are invisible since they are at district offices. And some that are PWMB. And some that are not yet documentarily qualified (which is a prerequisite before you could be adjudicated). So the 485 inventory is a good (and the best available) approximation to overall 485 demand for adjudication.

However ever since USCIS has started publishing 485 inventory .... life has become much easier. Earlier people used to do pure guesswork (with a bit of intelligence and peripheral data)!




Q, what I am thinking is may be we have these kind of apps included in demand data for EB2 I & C before 2007 as well.
For example, we have 17200 pending for visa numbers prior to Jan 2007, say out of which we might have 400 of these cases
which will never have a visa number allocated until their PD's fall within current dates.
With this assumption, I believe, the spillover number that could applied can be greater than the number suggested in demand data, which we are seeing.

Also, I read in some forums (will try to provide reference later), few people will start receiving this kind of invoices when NVC predicts their PD's will become current in next 6 months or so. Last week, one of my colleague received it with a pd of Oct 2007.

[veni001]

Yes. That's true. But at the same time remember there are some 485 applications that are invisible since they are at district offices. And some that are PWMB. And some that are not yet documentarily qualified (which is a prerequisite before you could be adjudicated). So the 485 inventory is a good (and the best available) approximation to overall 485 demand for adjudication.

However ever since USCIS has started publishing 485 inventory .... life has become much easier. Earlier people used to do pure guesswork (with a bit of intelligence and peripheral data)!

Q,
January inventory actually accounted for the field office inventories as well? you mean field offices are different from district offices?

[qesehmk]

Veni,

I meant the same. But I thought that the work has just started. Spec in fact has pointed out earlier that even after the edict came out about transferring 485 cases into TSC, not all cases will be transferred.


Q,
January inventory actually accounted for the field office inventories as well? you mean field offices are different from district offices?

[veni001]

Veni,

I meant the same. But I thought that the work has just started. Spec in fact has pointed out earlier that even after the edict came out about transferring 485 cases into TSC, not all cases will be transferred.

Q,
The chances of district offices having more then few hundred cases is very less, and we saw some inventory changes(EB2/3) in Jan Inventory update. I am hoping March inventory update, if and when released, will provide additional info!

[Spectator]

Q,
The chances of district offices having more then few hundred cases is very less, and we saw some inventory changes(EB2/3) in Jan Inventory update. I am hoping March inventory update, if and when released, will provide additional info!

The memo only covered preadjudicated cases at Local Offices. I would hope that the vast majority of the preadjudicated cases up to the end of Dec 2010 were transfered to TSC and were included in the Jan 05, 2011 USCIS Inventory.

Any cases still at LO where the interview has yet to take place are still unknown.

Future successful interviews for cases that are not Current will result in the case being transferred to TSC.

Any cases that are Current and approved when interviewed will have the visa requested from the LO.

All these cases are currently invisible to the VO.

It might well only be only a few hundred or it could be several thousand. There is absolutely no visibility on the numbers.

[Spectator]

I know some people believe that ROW may provide much higher fall across this year.

I am a little more guarded on the prospect, although I don't rule it out.

A run rate of 60% of last year's approvals is often quoted, but I don't see any evidence that this remains true.

Analyzing the cumulative ROW primary approvals (adjusted for CofC) for FY2010 and FY2011 shows the following:

----------------All Months ------------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
October-- 115 ----- 70 ------- 60.87%
November- 149 ----- 98 ------- 65.77%
December- 189 ---- 130 ------- 68.78%
January-- 214 ---- 179 ------- 83.64%
February- 237 ---- 204 ------- 86.08%
March---- 268 ---- 243 ------- 90.67%

Whilst the % was originally 60%, it has risen since.

There is always the problem with knowing exactly what October approvals represent. There always has to be a suspicion that some of them represent cases where the visa was actually allocated from the previous year's quota.

The numbers for October in FY2010 and FY2011 were very different. Excluding October from the statistics gives the following figures:

------------Excluding October ---------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
November-- 34 ----- 28 ------- 82.35%
December-- 74 ----- 60 ------- 81.08%
January--- 99 ---- 109 ------ 110.10%
February- 122 ---- 134 ------ 109.84%
March --- 153 ---- 173 ------ 113.07%

The apparent run rate is higher for the period Nov - Mar. It may mean nothing, but I do think it is interesting, so I have made the information available.

There are still virtually 6 months left and much may change either way. The period June-Aug saw higher ROW approvals in FY2010. That may not be the case this year and approval % would drop accordingly. From memory, the pipeline for further approvals in Trackitt is not huge at this point.

As ever, Mexico and Philippines approval progress is virtually impossible to predict.

Again, I am not saying that ROW fall across will not increase, only that it is perhaps too early to bank it. Personally, at this point, I still think it will be a modest increase of 1-2k.

A linear projection suggests 22k approvals for the year, which would be 2k less than last year.

For clarity and so people don't have to go hunting for the figures, EB2-ROW (excluding M & P) contributed 6.6k to the 9.7k total fall across in EB2 for FY2010. That was based on allocation of 31k. The ROW (excl M&P) allocation for FY2011 is 28.8k.

[TeddyKoochu]

I know some people believe that ROW may provide much higher fall across this year.

I am a little more guarded on the prospect, although I don't rule it out.

A run rate of 60% of last year's approvals is often quoted, but I don't see any evidence that this remains true.

Analyzing the cumulative ROW primary approvals (adjusted for CofC) for FY2010 and FY2011 shows the following:

----------------All Months ------------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
October-- 115 ----- 70 ------- 60.87%
November- 149 ----- 98 ------- 65.77%
December- 189 ---- 130 ------- 68.78%
January-- 214 ---- 179 ------- 83.64%
February- 237 ---- 204 ------- 86.08%
March---- 268 ---- 243 ------- 90.67%

Whilst the % was originally 60%, it has risen since.

There is always the problem with knowing exactly what October approvals represent. There always has to be a suspicion that some of them represent cases where the visa was actually allocated from the previous year's quota.

The numbers for October in FY2010 and FY2011 were very different. Excluding October from the statistics gives the following figures:

------------Excluding October ---------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
November-- 34 ----- 28 ------- 82.35%
December-- 74 ----- 60 ------- 81.08%
January--- 99 ---- 109 ------ 110.10%
February- 122 ---- 134 ------ 109.84%
March --- 153 ---- 173 ------ 113.07%

The apparent run rate is higher for the period Nov - Mar. It may mean nothing, but I do think it is interesting, so I have made the information available.

There are still virtually 6 months left and much may change either way. The period June-Aug saw higher ROW approvals in FY2010. That may not be the case this year and approval % would drop accordingly. From memory, the pipeline for further approvals in Trackitt is not huge at this point.

As ever, Mexico and Philippines approval progress is virtually impossible to predict.

Again, I am not saying that ROW fall across will not increase, only that it is perhaps too early to bank it. Personally, at this point, I still think it will be a modest increase of 1-2k.

A linear projection suggests 22k approvals for the year, which would be 2k less than last year.

Thanks for bringing this up are these figures from Trackitt ? Trackitt works very well for EB2 ROW, I think they maybe going overboard to approve every possible EB2 ROW case.

[Spectator]

Thanks for bringing this up are these figures from Trackitt ? Trackitt works very well for EB2 ROW, I think they maybe going overboard to approve every possible EB2 ROW case.

Sorry Teddy, I didn't actually mention that did I?

Yes the figures are from Trackitt.

Approvals for EB2-ROW have actually been quite steady. There was a slightly higher blip in January.

[gcwait2007]

Spectator,

Well researched, well analyzed and well written document. Appreciate it.

I am aware of many porters from EB3ROW to EB2ROW, whose data were not captured any where.

My gut feeling is that EB2ROW spillover would be in the range of 10K to 15K.

[Spectator]

Spectator,

Well researched, well analyzed and well written document. Appreciate it.

I am aware of many porters from EB3ROW to EB2ROW, whose data were not captured any where.

My gut feeling is that EB2ROW spillover would be in the range of 10K to 15K.

gcwait2007,

Thank you for your kind comments.

I'm not sure whether your definition of ROW includes Mexico and Philippines as well - mine does not.

Assuming it does and M & P contribute 3k to spill across, that would leave your range for purely ROW as 7k to 12k.

7k would represent 21.8k ROW approvals - that seems quite possible.

12k would represent only 16.8k ROW approvals - Trackitt data suggests ROW has already reached 11.5k approvals, so I think that might be a little optimistic.

If your estimate is actually for ROW (excluding M & P) then the range of 10k to 15k represents ROW approvals of between 18.8k down to 13.8k. That would definitely be on the low side IMO.

Having said that, I'm not sure what range I would give, if asked.

[gcwait2007]

I'm not sure whether your definition of ROW includes Mexico and Philippines as well - mine does not.

Assuming it does and M & P contribute 3k to spill across, that would leave your range for purely ROW as 7k to 12k.

7k would represent 21.8k ROW approvals - that seems quite possible.

12k would represent only 16.8k ROW approvals - Trackitt data suggests ROW has already reached 11.5k approvals, so I think that might be a little optimistic.

If your estimate is actually for ROW (excluding M & P) then the range of 10k to 15k represents ROW approvals of between 18.8k down to 13.8k. That would definitely be on the low side IMO.

Having said that, I'm not sure what range I would give, if asked.

From DoS and AILA angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries, while many try to perceive as 'India' specific.

I included M & P in my ballpark estimation. I feel that the spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C will be less compared to last year. How much less? Or How much is expected spill over from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C? That part I am guessing that it would be from 8K to 12K.

[gcwait2007]

June 2011 visa bulletin predictions:

Interesting read: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/june-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html

I agree with the views expressed in the blog.

EB3- China could advance to 01 July 2004
EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 October 2005.
EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 October 2004.
EB3-ROW could advance to 01 October 2005.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 22 April 2002.
EB2-India would see movement till 15 July 2006 (assuming DOS would be interested in gauging some more EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand for July visa bulletin).
EB2-China could advance to 08 August 2006.

[parsvnath]

I found this poll in the same website referenced above. In 2006, out of total 441 poeple who took the survey, about 20% are upgrades in 2006. 2003, 2004, 2005 are 9% (39). 2007 is 15% as of now but as mentioned in my earlier post, my company started porting for people upto 2006 this year but said they will revisit for 2007 next year since they may meet 5 year criteria for EB2. I would say, eventually 2006 would be close 30% plus and 2007 would also be 30% plus of the 441 people. This data truely suggests some headwind in regards to porting but this data may not mean anything, if the total no porting cases is already estimated 4-5-6k and this data provides just the split up of the dates.

http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455

Spec, Teddy, Q - Your thoughts please.

[veni001]

If you look at PERM trending for FY2011 is almost same as FY 2010, based on for FY 2011 Q1 update.

I-140 trending is also same
October 2009 - January 2010 - Total i-140 completions = 23,512
October 2010- January 2011 - Total i-140 completions = 23,117

We know there is substantial decrease in EB1 which means FY2011 may have higher % EB2 i-140 compared to FY 2010. But what % of them are porting is a big question?

As i stated in my earlier post ,unless half of EB2I PERM approvals are porting cases in the last two quarters,12k porting is not a possibility.
(Note:2011 ROW PERM approval numbers are less than or equal to 2010 ROW PERM approval numbers)


From DoS and AILA angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries, while many try to perceive as 'India' specific.

I included M & P in my ballpark estimation. I feel that the spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C will be less compared to last year. How much less? Or How much is expected spill over from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C? That part I am guessing that it would be from 8K to 12K.

FY2011 Q1 PERM data doesn't look like supporting AILA statement. If we assume most of these filings are Porting only cases then it will be good in the long run since 2008 and 2009 got very less PERM approvals?

[qesehmk]

FY2011 Q1 PERM data doesn't look like supporting AILA statement. If we assume most of these filings are Porting only cases then it will be good in the long run since 2008 and 2009 got very less PERM approvals?

True.

One needs to also understand that ROW porting is already baked into ROW PERM approvals. So the only porting that matters for EB2IC is EB3IC porting. Although teh estimates are 4-6K, yes it is possible that the PERM approvals may be heavily tilted towards porting rather than real NEW labors for EB2IC.

Personally although I do not believe this to be too big a problem, if somebody is concerned about this then just focus on EB2IC porting and find out how much that is since as I said earlier ROW is already baked into ROW demand.

[veni001]

donvar,

If you look at PERM trending for FY2011 is almost same as FY 2010, based on for FY 2011 Q1 update.

I-140 trending is also same
October 2009 - January 2010 - Total i-140 completions = 23,512
October 2010- January 2011 - Total i-140 completions = 23,117

We know there is substantial decrease in EB1 which means FY2011 may have higher % EB2 i-140 compared to FY 2010. But what % of them are porting is a big question?

As i stated in my earlier post ,unless half of EB2I PERM approvals are porting cases in the last two quarters,12k porting is not a possibility.
(Note:2011 ROW PERM approval numbers are less than or equal to 2010 ROW PERM approval numbers)


From DoS and AILA angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries, while many try to perceive as 'India' specific.

I included M & P in my ballpark estimation. I feel that the spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C will be less compared to last year. How much less? Or How much is expected spill over from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C? That part I am guessing that it would be from 8K to 12K.


True.

One needs to also understand that ROW porting is already baked into ROW PERM approvals. So the only porting that matters for EB2IC is EB3IC porting. Although teh estimates are 4-6K, yes it is possible that the PERM approvals may be heavily tilted towards porting rather than real NEW labors for EB2IC.

Personally although I do not believe this to be too big a problem, if somebody is concerned about this then just focus on EB2IC porting and find out how much that is since as I said earlier ROW is already baked into ROW demand.

Q,
I agree with your comment, except China porting. EB3C only 3.5k cases between their current PD and August 2007.

[veni001]

I found this poll in the same website referenced above. In 2006, out of total 441 poeple who took the survey, about 20% are upgrades in 2006. 2003, 2004, 2005 are 9% (39). 2007 is 15% as of now but as mentioned in my earlier post, my company started porting for people upto 2006 this year but said they will revisit for 2007 next year since they may meet 5 year criteria for EB2. I would say, eventually 2006 would be close 30% plus and 2007 would also be 30% plus of the 441 people. This data truely suggests some headwind in regards to porting but this data may not mean anything, if the total no porting cases is already estimated 4-5-6k and this data provides just the split up of the dates.

http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455

Spec, Teddy, Q - Your thoughts please.

I have posted this earlier and i modified it based on current VB PD,

"When talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before July 2006 Vs after July 2006. There are about 48K EB3I pending with priority dates before July 2006 compared to about 10K EB3I between July 2006 and August 2007 . Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD)"


I am not talking about ROW since Q and others prediction already account for ROW demand (regular&porting). China got only 2.4K EB3 pending between April 2004 and Aug 2006 ( China EB2&3 PD's from May VB)

All in all, EB2I PD movement can only be slowdown by heavy porting from EB3I-EB2I!

[gcwait2007]

I have read the comments posted veni and Q, regarding PERM and I-140 approvals and ascertain the number of porting cases.

There are many classic cases such as the one following. My friend's EB2 PERM was applied in April 2007 to Atlanta center and he did not get approval for July 07 fiasco. Company applied a EB3 substitute labor in July 07 fiasco with PD of 02/06/2007 (mine is 02/20/2007). He got his EAD and AP thru that EB3. In the mean time, his EB2 PERM was approved in December 2007. He applied for I-140 on the EB2 case in April 2008, which was approved in December 2008. Then he requested for porting EB3 India to EB2 India, which was noted by USCIS in Sept 2009. I know many friends of mine who did similar porting long ago. Such cases are not tracked any where.

[veni001]

I have read the comments posted veni and Q, regarding PERM and I-140 approvals and ascertain the number of porting cases.

There are many classic cases such as the one following. My friend's EB2 PERM was applied in April 2007 to Atlanta center and he did not get approval for July 07 fiasco. Company applied a EB3 substitute labor in July 07 fiasco with PD of 02/06/2007 (mine is 02/20/2007). He got his EAD and AP thru that EB3. In the mean time, his EB2 PERM was approved in December 2007. He applied for I-140 on the EB2 case in April 2008, which was approved in December 2008. Then he requested for porting EB3 India to EB2 India, which was noted by USCIS in Sept 2009. I know many friends of mine who did similar porting long ago. Such cases are not tracked any where.

gcwait2007,
I see lot of people posting these classic cases but what % of pending EB3I reflects this trend is the determining factor in driving EB2IC dates forward.

If we look at EB3I inventory from JAN 01 2007 till AUG 2007, there are about 50K cases, what % of these cases is already ported or in the process or going to be …?

EBI - PERM Certification Data:
There are about 3.9K PERM approvals for IND after AUG 01, 2007 from FY 2007 PERM disclosure data followed by 16.5 K in FY2008, 11.3K in 2009,28.9 K in 2010 and about 9.3K in Q1 2011. So total 75.3 K PERM certifications for IND since July 2007 till Q1 FY 2011, and assume another 9.3 from Q2 FY 2011.

Here is my worst case scenario:
If we take 50% of all certified PERM for IND are eligible for EB2 and 50% of them are “porting” cases then from FY 2010 and Q1-Q2 FY 2011 PERM numbers
Total (28.9 +9.3+9.3) = 47.5K
EB2 (50% of the above) = 23.75K
EB2 (Porting only) = 11.87K
i-140 approvals for the porting = 10.0K(after assuming 15% rejections)
This will reflect about 22K i-485 ( EBI porting only) -- this is 46% of EB3I inventory (JAN 2003 - AUG 2007)-- Extremely Unlikely
Note: I assume If someone applied for PERM for porting in FY 2009 they must have gotten GC by now or counted in the Inventory otherwise dates shouldn’t have moved forward in May 2011 VB.

Now let’s look at our projected SOFAD
EB1 – 18 -22K
EB2-- 12-15 K (including M&P)
EB2IC~6K (FY 2011 regular quota)
EB4-5 – 8-10K

Lower Bound = 44K (including EB2IC regular allocation)
Upper Bound = 53K (including EB2IC regular allocation)

Now look at 10-01-2010 Inventory data for I&C
EB2I – 24.2K
EB2C – 11.4K
Porting – 22.0 K
assume CP – 0.4K
Since processing time is about 4 months PWMB (5K) cases until July 2007 may not be able to get a VISA number in FY 2011, with the above worst case scenario demand of 58K, I believe we should at least hit FEB 2007 with the lower bound and JUNE 2007 with the upper bound.:o

[Spectator]

There are about 3.9K PERM approvals for IND after AUG 01, 2007 from FY 2007 PERM disclosure data followed by 16.5 K in FY2008, 11.3K in 2009, 6.7 K in 2010 and about 9.3K in Q1 2011. So total 47.7 K PERM certifications for IND since July 2007 till Q1 FY 2011, and assume another 9.3 from Q2 FY 2011.
veni,

I think there is a mistake in the FY2010 PERM figure you are using. India received 28.9k (28,930 of 70,237 to be exact) not 6.7k as you are using for FY2010.

[veni001]

veni,

I think there is a mistake in the FY2010 PERM figure you are using. India received 28.9k (28,930 of 70,237 to be exact) not 6.7k as you are using for FY2010.

Spec,
Thanks for catching it, i have corrected it in my post. Basically it is adding another 10k for porting numbers and bringing forecast, in each case, by two months.

[qesehmk]

Veni

Instead of so many elaborate calculations and extreme assumptions ...do you think that one can use the following simple logic :

1. Spillover is not applied until Q4
2. EB2IC quota is 5.6K
3. EB2IC dates haven't retrogressed
4. EB2IC inventory hasn't grown

1+2+3+4 => Max EB2IC porting for dates that are current = annual EB2IC quota i.e. 5.6K



gcwait2007,
I see lot of people posting these classic cases but what % of pending EB3I reflects this trend is the determining factor in driving EB2IC dates forward.

If we look at EB3I inventory from JAN 01 2007 till AUG 2007, there are about 50K cases, what % of these cases is already ported or in the process or going to be …?

AILA/DOS/USCIS may be referring to the surge in Q1 PERM filing to support their “massive” porting number prediction?

EBI - PERM Certification Data:
There are about 3.9K PERM approvals for IND after AUG 01, 2007 from FY 2007 PERM disclosure data followed by 16.5 K in FY2008, 11.3K in 2009,28.9 K in 2010 and about 9.3K in Q1 2011. So total 75.3 K PERM certifications for IND since July 2007 till Q1 FY 2011, and assume another 9.3 from Q2 FY 2011.

Here is my worst case scenario:
If we take 50% of all certified PERM for IND are eligible for EB2 and 50% of them are “porting” cases then from FY 2010 and Q1-Q2 FY 2011 PERM numbers
Total (28.9 +9.3+9.3) = 47.5K
EB2 (50% of the above) = 23.75K
EB2 (Porting only) = 11.87K
i-140 approvals for the porting = 10.0K(after assuming 15% rejections)
This will reflect about 22K i-485 ( EBI porting only) -- this is 46% of EB3I inventory (JAN 2003 - AUG 2007)-- Extremely Unlikely
Note: I assume If someone applied for PERM for porting in FY 2009 they must have gotten GC by now or counted in the Inventory otherwise dates shouldn’t have moved forward in May 2011 VB.

Now let’s look at our projected SOFAD
EB1 – 18 -22K
EB2-- 12-15 K (including M&P)
EB2IC~6K (FY 2011 regular quota)
EB4-5 – 8-10K

Lower Bound = 44K (including EB2IC regular allocation)
Upper Bound = 53K (including EB2IC regular allocation)

Now look at 10-01-2010 Inventory data for I&C
EB2I – 24.2K
EB2C – 11.4K
Porting – 22.0 K
assume CP – 0.4K
Since processing time about 4 months PWMB (5K) cases until July 2007 may not be able to get a VISA number in FY 2011, with the above worst case scenario demand of 58K, I believe we should at least hit FEB 2007 with the lower bound and JUNE 2007 with the upper bound.:o

[veni001]

Veni

Instead of so many elaborate calculations and extreme assumptions ...do you think that one can use the following simple logic :

1. Spillover is not applied until Q4
2. EB2IC quota is 5.6K
3. EB2IC dates haven't retrogressed
4. EB2IC inventory hasn't grown

1+2+3+4 => Max EB2IC porting for dates that are current = annual EB2IC quota i.e. 5.6K

Q,
I am Okay with your, Spec and Teddy's porting projection. I presented this elaborated calculations for those still questioning our porting calculations by referring to AILA/DOS/USCIS optimism. Also just to see what could be the worst case scenario, which (almost 50% of EB3I porting) is extremely unlikely.:D

[donvar]

Veni

Instead of so many elaborate calculations and extreme assumptions ...do you think that one can use the following simple logic :

1. Spillover is not applied until Q4
2. EB2IC quota is 5.6
3. EB2IC dates haven't retrogressed
4. EB2IC inventory hasn't grown

1+2+3+4 => Max EB2IC porting for dates that are current = annual EB2IC quota i.e. 5.6K

Q
Probably that is something I wanted to point out that to it seems kind more than perfect (and a paradox) that while the dates have not retrogressed, they didn't move further as well( the last bulletin move is different bcos of part of 12K thingy). Somehow porting estimate seems to be balancing out with 2800 Eb2I quota, which is something I find hard to believe.
To me it seems, that they do not want to retrogress(or fluctuate dates) in the middle, until the spillover allocation where they will eventually have to move dates forward anyway.

And of course, my this is just an opinion , sans fact/data unlike you guys.

[qesehmk]

Don

Thanks. Good point. Agreed that hard to believe porting is exactly equal to EB2IC quota. The chinese dates actually moved forward (even before the 12K EB1 FD announcement) ... so their number is less than 2.8K for sure. That leaves us w EB2IC porting. Its anybody's guess at what level of porting DOS would retrogress. But you wouldve thought that they would warn in one of the newsletters that EB2I dates might retrogress in Q2/3 due to oversubscription.

Just some thoughts .... don't really have good data to say eitherway.





Q
Probably that is something I wanted to point out that to it seems kind more than perfect (and a paradox) that while the dates have not retrogressed, they didn't move further as well( the last bulletin move is different bcos of part of 12K thingy). Somehow porting estimate seems to be balancing out with 2800 Eb2I quota, which is something I find hard to believe.
To me it seems, that they do not want to retrogress(or fluctuate dates) in the middle, until the spillover allocation where they will eventually have to move dates forward anyway.

And of course, my this is just an opinion , sans fact/data unlike you guys.

[veni001]

Don

Thanks. Good point. Agreed that hard to believe porting is exactly equal to EB2IC quota. The chinese dates actually moved forward (even before the 12K EB1 FD announcement) ... so their number is less than 2.8K for sure. That leaves us w EB2IC porting. Its anybody's guess at what level of porting DOS would retrogress. But you wouldve thought that they would warn in one of the newsletters that EB2I dates might retrogress in Q2/3 due to retrogression.

Just some thoughts .... don't really have good data to say eitherway.

Q,
I believe you mean half year EB3I-->EB2I Porting = Full year quota.

[qesehmk]

I mean full year quota = full year porting.
Anyway ... there is only so much we can beat this topic!


Q,
I believe you mean half year EB3I-->EB2I Porting = Full year quota.

[anuran]

With respect to fact/data, direct porting data is going to be quite difficult to lay hands on. CIS, in all probability, is never going to reveal the subcomponents in EB2/I-485 approvals. However this is what I see in FY10. Of course as can be seen easily, during the period of retrogression, 2800 allocated visas for India just vanished. And last year India spillover was about 14700. Allocated visas were 2803. Inventory data shows a reduction in the pending cases by 14100. Therefore, approximate number of visa claimants who did not appear in the inventory between October 2009 and 2010 seems to be 2800+600 and that would be only 3400 for India alone. This number might be even less as there seems to be ~1000 still pending from that inventory. These cases might have been abandoned or rejected even after preadjudication. Did I get the numbers wrong? Correct me as all I have is the inventory data to go by.

PS: Now that CIS says that the upgrades are higher, probably it is double the last year's and that means it is 6.8k. This we may know when Oct2011 inventory comes out :)

[veni001]

With respect to fact/data, direct porting data is going to be quite difficult to lay hands on. CIS, in all probability, is never going to reveal the subcomponents in EB2/I-485 approvals. However this is what I see in FY10. Of course as can be seen easily, during the period of retrogression, 2800 allocated visas for India just vanished. And last year India spillover was about 14700. Allocated visas were 2803. Inventory data shows a reduction in the pending cases by 14100. Therefore, approximate number of visa claimants who did not appear in the inventory between October 2009 and 2010 seems to be 2800+600 and that would be only 3400 for India alone. This number might be even less as there seems to be ~1000 still pending from that inventory. These cases might have been abandoned or rejected even after preadjudication. Did I get the numbers wrong? Correct me as all I have is the inventory data to go by.

PS: Now that CIS says that the upgrades are higher, probably it is double the last year's and that means it is 6.8k. This we may know when Oct2011 inventory comes out :)

anuran,
You forgot the CP numbers. Spec provided CP breakdown in post#509

"EB2
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 6,505 ---- 70 -- 1.08% -- 1.18%
India ------ 19,961 --- 102 -- 0.51% -- 0.74%
Mexico -------- 817 ---- 22 -- 2.69% -- 2.06%
Philippines - 2,162 --- 137 -- 6.34% -- 6.59%
ROW -------- 24,427 - 1,167 -- 4.78% -- 3.11%

Total ------ 53,872 - 1,498 -- 2.78% -- 2.76%"

[anuran]

Thanks veni001. That is another 102 EB2 cases not on the inventory. As they still fall within the 2800+600 group, and considering that the upgrading cases among the 102 CP cases is negligible, it would actually cost the estimated porting numbers in FY10 (~3400 to ~3300). Cheers.

[zenmaster]

Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has delibrately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream ;) Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

[veni001]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb3-to-eb2-porting-calculations-part.html)

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??:)

[veni001]

Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has deliberately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream ;) Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

ravi.shah,
Why would they?

[haripathhi]

Ravi,

Do you have data to back this up or is it just a random thought that you hope is happening currently? :)


Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has delibrately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream ;) Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

[kd2008]

Ravi,

Do you have data to back this up or is it just a random thought that you hope is happening currently? :)

Just look up trackitt data.

[gcwait2007]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb3-to-eb2-porting-calculations-part.html)

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??:)

The blog is close to reality expected.

[anuran]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb3-to-eb2-porting-calculations-part.html)

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??:)

I read that the day before and the predictions are quite ominous. It seems to almost support what some internet chatter suggests. The convergence of EB2-EB3 in the near future (worst case scenario). By my estimates for this FY'11 the upgrading applications will consume >7000 visas. When an application with PD in 2003 or 2004 appears before the CIS then they will have to give them the GC. It almost sounds like a conspiracy theory, but there might be something to what ravi.shah is saying. I believe that CIS started using the spillover in May just for that purpose. If that is the case we should not see any change in the next pending inventory. We may even see an increase in the pending cases. Therefore for any movement similar to last year to happen, we might require at least 40k in spillover. Or else bye-bye to cutoff date moving into 2007 this year.

[gcwait2007]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/eb3-to-eb2-porting-calculations-part.html)

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??:)

To reach the PD of 1st July 2007, there are 8574 estimated EB3 to EB2 portings to be accounted in the spillover.

I feel that I should go back to my original prediction of 1st March 2007, after seeing the portings estimation.

[veni001]

To reach the PD of 1st July 2007, there are 8574 estimated EB3 to EB2 portings to be accounted in the spillover.

I feel that I should go back to my original prediction of 1st March 2007, after seeing the portings estimation.

gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[gcseeker]

Veni

You are correct the Q2 Perm certification data should reveal the true picture about EB3->EB2 porting.

If it turns out it is anywhere in the range of 8K-9K as mentioned in the worst case links above...it would not be a good sign for EB2 folks post April 2007 and then probably the dates will stagnate since it could indicate greater number of EB3 folks with PD's before 2005 porting to EB2.

I pray the pessimistic predictions about porting are wrong...just hope they release the Perm certification soon.


gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[gcseeker]

Veni

Also would you know if this is the place to look for the PERM certification data

http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

The data seems to be only released annually...does this mean data for this year will not be available untill Dec ?

[veni001]

Veni

Also would you know if this is the place to look for the PERM certification data

http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

The data seems to be only released annually...does this mean data for this year will not be available untill Dec ?

Yes, for annual updates, starting FY 2011 DOL is publishing quarterly updates which can be found at the following link.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

[veni001]

Veni

You are correct the Q2 Perm certification data should reveal the true picture about EB3->EB2 porting.

If it turns out it is anywhere in the range of 8K-9K as mentioned in the worst case links above...it would not be a good sign for EB2 folks post April 2007 and then probably the dates will stagnate since it could indicate greater number of EB3 folks with PD's before 2005 porting to EB2.

I pray the pessimistic predictions about porting are wrong...just hope they release the Perm certification soon.

If this is true then, by when is the key for this year's final quarter PD movement.
Q and others estimates on this forum explain that this could be less than what everybody is estimating since the dates did not retrogress. I agree with them because if these estimates are true or at-least close then, definitely it should have been reflected in the demand data.

[qesehmk]

Agree that 485 inventory update will be helpful.

Not sure how Q2 PERM data could be used to determine portings? Any thoughts?


gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[shaumack]

If this is true then, by when is the key for this year's final quarter PD movement.
Q and others estimates on this forum explain that this could be less than what everybody is estimating since the dates did not retrogress. I agree with them because if these estimates are true or at-least close then, definitely it should have been reflected in the demand data.

I think this was reflected in the demand data but then we were all thinking in terms of use of 233 visas per month and not 450-500 which DOS used to avoid retrogression and thus ended up using annual limit.

[veni001]

I think this was reflected in the demand data but then we were all thinking in terms of use of 233 visas per month and not 450-500 which DOS used to avoid retrogression and thus ended up using annual limit.

shaumack,
This is what DOS hinted in May VB and also only in the case of EB2I , i don't think DOS/USCIS has done something similar in the past!
If using 2.8k instead of 1.4K helped the PD not to retrogress in the first two quarters is a good news indeed, at this rate porting numbers will be in the same ballpark of our initial estimates 5-6k, instead of the extreme numbers 15-20k.

[tedtom]

Hi,

My PD is 2nd Oct 2006 EB2, will it be current by end of year 2011.

Thanks

[gcwait2007]

Hi,

My PD is 2nd Oct 2006 EB2, will it be current by end of year 2011.

Thanks

The chances are bright;
however, you pray for it.
No prediction can be accurate.

[tedtom]

The chances are bright;
however, you pray for it.
No prediction can be accurate.

I must buy a parrot and some cards marked with dates for these predictions..

Really surprised in this computer age uscis cannot tell exactly its current state of eb2, eb3 prediction. [eb3->eb2 porting is a variable is see]

Thanks

[qesehmk]

U don't need to. USCIS is that parrot! Except of course this parrot is blind deaf and mute.
:p

Having said that you have a 100% chance of getting it this year.


I must buy a parrot and some cards marked with dates for these predictions..

[ifaith]

U don't need to. USCIS is that parrot! Except of course this parrot is blind deaf and mute.
:p

Having said that you have a 100% chance of getting it this year.

Hi Q
So would you say that chances of being current and getting the Green Card in Hand is also high by the end of the year for tedtom.

[qesehmk]

iFaith

Based on TedTom's PD (2 Oct 2006) and EB2 .... I think the chance is a 100% that he will get a GC by end Sep 2011.


Hi Q
So would you say that chances of being current and getting the Green Card in Hand is also high by the end of the year for tedtom.

[Spectator]

For anyone interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been upadated with figures for February 2011.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

[kd2008]

We saw that in May visa bulletin the EB2-India dates moved forward because of the fact that EB1 consumption is low and there might be 12 K spillover from EB1.

So I wondered why is EB1 consumption low? What has changed? Well it happens that TSC is sitting on a pile of 25K pending I-140s - from USCIS dashboard. Even if 3K of those are EB1s, then that would be about 7.5K visas that are waiting to be consumed.

So I would be cautious about assuming the so called 12K spillover from EB1. We have been burned last couple of years.

Should TSC get its act together, quite a large chunk of those 12K will get consumed.

Just being contrarily and a devil's advocate!

[gcseeker]

Spec

You are the man.Awesome link . Also to add to what kd2008 has posted below .I glanced at the I-829 apps (final stage of conditions removal for EB5 when the 2 yrs is done and 500K is vested and 10 jobs created ) .The apps filings and approvals are climbing very rapidly.There will be very very minimal spillover from EB5 atleast from this data.EB5 has an almost 99% approval rate and looks atleast half of those filings will be granted this year itself.

Also EB1 spillover might have been overestimated.......as kd said we have been burned a few times.




For anyone interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been upadated with figures for February 2011.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

[qesehmk]

Not sure about 829. The pending are climbing fast but they are still only 2000. The monthly receipts are 200 but approval rate is very low. Wonder if you could recheck and if you still believe you are right then please explain.

On another note - I-140 completions show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.
I would be worried about increase in pending 485 by 43K between oct-Feb. But remember this increase includes both family and employment. On the other hand preadj 485 are showing decrease first time this year.

However the data here doesn't tell us whether the 12K in EB1 is real. Wonder if anyone has any ideas to decipher :-)



Spec

You are the man.Awesome link . Also to add to what kd2008 has posted below .I glanced at the I-829 apps (final stage of conditions removal for EB5 when the 2 yrs is done and 500K is vested and 10 jobs created ) .The apps filings and approvals are climbing very rapidly.There will be very very minimal spillover from EB5 atleast from this data.EB5 has an almost 99% approval rate and looks atleast half of those filings will be granted this year itself.

Also EB1 spillover might have been overestimated.......as kd said we have been burned a few times.

[kd2008]

I-140 receipts jumped in Feb.

Based on trackitt there haven't been any PERM approvals since March so I-140 numbers will eventually drop significantly for a few months.

[gcwait2007]

Not sure about 829. The pending are climbing fast but they are still only 2000. The monthly receipts are 200 but approval rate is very low. Wonder if you could recheck and if you still believe you are right then please explain.

On another note - I-140 receipts show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.
I would be worried about increase in pending 485 by 43K between oct-Feb. But remember this increase includes both family and employment. On the other hand preadj 485 are showing decrease first time this year.

However the data here doesn't tell us whether the 12K in EB1 is real. Wonder if anyone has any ideas to decipher :-)

I have been in the Immigration process for the last 5 years and in my opinion, Charlie Oppenhiem does not open his mouth unless he is 1000% confident of what he is saying.

When he metioned 12K spillover from EB1, it can be taken as granted and at the minimum. Further after Kazarian vs USCIS case, all EB1A and EB1B are closely scrutinized.

2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition.

3. I am seeing change of attitude in recent H1-Bs from India. Many don't bother about staying back in USA.They want to move back to India happily. Many of my Mumbai and Delhi based friends worked in USA for few years and they went back to India. Almost most of them had PERM approval.

[TeddyKoochu]

I know some people believe that ROW may provide much higher fall across this year.

I am a little more guarded on the prospect, although I don't rule it out.

A run rate of 60% of last year's approvals is often quoted, but I don't see any evidence that this remains true.

Analyzing the cumulative ROW primary approvals (adjusted for CofC) for FY2010 and FY2011 shows the following:

----------------All Months ------------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
October-- 115 ----- 70 ------- 60.87%
November- 149 ----- 98 ------- 65.77%
December- 189 ---- 130 ------- 68.78%
January-- 214 ---- 179 ------- 83.64%
February- 237 ---- 204 ------- 86.08%
March---- 268 ---- 243 ------- 90.67%

Whilst the % was originally 60%, it has risen since.

There is always the problem with knowing exactly what October approvals represent. There always has to be a suspicion that some of them represent cases where the visa was actually allocated from the previous year's quota.

The numbers for October in FY2010 and FY2011 were very different. Excluding October from the statistics gives the following figures:

------------Excluding October ---------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
November-- 34 ----- 28 ------- 82.35%
December-- 74 ----- 60 ------- 81.08%
January--- 99 ---- 109 ------ 110.10%
February- 122 ---- 134 ------ 109.84%
March --- 153 ---- 173 ------ 113.07%

The apparent run rate is higher for the period Nov - Mar. It may mean nothing, but I do think it is interesting, so I have made the information available.

There are still virtually 6 months left and much may change either way. The period June-Aug saw higher ROW approvals in FY2010. That may not be the case this year and approval % would drop accordingly. From memory, the pipeline for further approvals in Trackitt is not huge at this point.

As ever, Mexico and Philippines approval progress is virtually impossible to predict.

Again, I am not saying that ROW fall across will not increase, only that it is perhaps too early to bank it. Personally, at this point, I still think it will be a modest increase of 1-2k.

A linear projection suggests 22k approvals for the year, which would be 2k less than last year.

For clarity and so people don't have to go hunting for the figures, EB2-ROW (excluding M & P) contributed 6.6k to the 9.7k total fall across in EB2 for FY2010. That was based on allocation of 31k. The ROW (excl M&P) allocation for FY2011 is 28.8k.

I did a query on Trackitt using the following parameters
Country of Chargeability - ROW
Status - Approved
485 Approval date -(Oct - Mar) Repective years.

The 60% trend is definitely broken we are now at 85%.

EB2 ROW 6 Monthly Calculations (Oct - Mar)
Year 2010- 423
Year 2011 -362

Last Year EB2 ROW gave 11K as SOFAD.
consumption last year = 43K-11K-6K = 26K.

This year the consumption is 85% of last year ~ 22K.
However we must note that we are back to normal cap so ROW allocation
would be 40-6 ~ 34K.

So Nett ROW SOFAD would be 34-22 = 12K pretty similar to last year. However as Spec points out the trend of EB2 ROW rate increasing seems to be very real.

[vishnu]

Thanks to everyone for their contributions - you guys are great! I ooked through the 2008, 2009 and 2010 PERM data and EB india filings dropped a lot in 08, dropped further in 09 and recovered well in 10. Of course these statistics have already been discussed extensively in this thread. But I also noticed that China EB applications are down big, including in 2010. So once we clear 07 dates, I genuinely think dates will move fast (ish) because China will not consume much EB visas. Even if porting is in excess of the 6k which is already in most of your models (Q, Veni etc), I think the extra 3-4k (in pessimistic scenario), can be met by the lack of China demand hence keeping overall potential spillover to India at levels predicted by the 'bullish' models. It is not that everyone in EB3 can port too. It is either Master or BS 4 + 4 years work ex - a lot of people came with a BSc Comp Science which is a 3 year degree and although they have tons of works ex, they are unlikely to be able to port to EB2. Just my thoughts...

[anuran]

gcwait2007:
EB1A and EB1B numbers are always very low. I believe it is in the range of 2-3K per annum. Plus since 2008 many universities as well as corporate research facilities are not hiring due to university level budget deficit and corporate profit situation within the US. That much I know being connected to an University. I think it is EB1C that consumes a huge proportion of EB1 visas. May seem to be assuming that EB1C is under a crackdown. This part, I do not know.

[anuran]

vishnu:
Falling China numbers is a good point and many estimates seem to be not taking that into account.

[qesehmk]

2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition. THANKS. SO WHERE TO LOOK FOR APPROVAL? DO THESE GUYS FILE 485?

3. I am seeing change of attitude in recent H1-Bs from India. Many don't bother about staying back in USA.They want to move back to India happily. SO TRUE.




It is not that everyone in EB3 can port too. Exactly. Then add the fact that porting involves essentially a duplicate and more complicated GC application. Now why would any US employer would want to do that - especially in this recession when attrition is extremely low.

[TeddyKoochu]

When he metioned 12K spillover from EB1, it can be taken as granted and at the minimum. Further after Kazarian vs USCIS case, all EB1A and EB1B are closely scrutinized.


gcwait2007 I fully agree with you that we should take the 12K as the minimum from EB1 in the absence of any other good way to calculate EB1.

[zenmaster]

SO WHERE TO LOOK FOR APPROVAL? DO THESE GUYS FILE 485?

Yes Q.
Step 1of3 is I526.
Step 2of3 is I485 or CP.
Step 3of3 is I829.

Source : USCIS EB5 Filing Procedure (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60a RCRD)

[veni001]

........


2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition.

............

That's right, if some one files 829 now means he got his GC at least 20 months back. Most of 2k 829 pending now got GC's in FY 2009, there are 3,222 EB5 approvals in FY 2009.
FY 2010 got only 1,139 EB5 approvals.

[vishnu]

Going back to what I mentioned earlier, China EB2 + 3 in 2010 as per PERM data (inlcuded certified and certified-expired) was only 3314 ! So EB2 is probably 50% (1657). Remember also that 2010 is a recovery year, so it's NOT like the 08 situation. So all fall-downs and fall-across go straight to EB2 India (once of course we cross 2007). This is great for EB2 I and even if you aren't that optimistic, at the very least you've got to assume that the reduction in China should somewhat offset the 'additional porting' that some as assuming, to leave India porting deduction no greater than 6000. Am I missing something?

[gcseeker]

Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.



Yes Q.
Step 1of3 is I526.
Step 2of3 is I485 or CP.
Step 3of3 is I829.

Source : USCIS EB5 Filing Procedure (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60a RCRD)

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Looks like 829 has no bearing on SOFAD. Because once 485 is adjudicated the number is used.

Now if 829 is not fulfilled then GC is possibly revoked but doesn't mean that the numbers return to the pool at all.


Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.

[Spectator]

Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.
gcseeker,

First, I must congratulate you on your lateral thinking to try to achieve some understanding of EB5.

I think veni is correct about when the GC is issued. From the link provided by ravi.shah:

Acquiring lawful permanent residence (“Green Card”) through the EB-5 category is a three step self-petitioning process.

First the successful applicant must obtain approval of his or her Form I-526 Petition for an Alien Entrepreneur.

Second, he or she must either file an I-485 application to adjust status to lawful permanent resident, or apply for an immigrant visa at a U.S. consulate or embassy outside of the United States.

The EB-5 applicant (and he or her derivative family members) are granted conditional permanent residence for a two year period upon the approval of the I-485 application or upon entry into the United States with an EB-5 immigrant visa.

Third, a a Form I-829 Petition by an Entrepreneur to Remove Conditions must be filed 90 days prior to the two year anniversary of the granting of the EB-5 applicant’s conditional Green Card. If this petition is approved by CIS then the EB-5 applicant will be issued a new Green Card without any further conditions attached to it, and will be allowed to permanently live and work in the United States.

EB5 is analogous to a Marriage based GC, which is initially issued for 2 years.

In that case, an I-130 is approved, followed by an I-485 or Consular Processing. If approved, a conditional GC is issued for 2 years. Finally an I-751 is submitted to remove those conditions.

For EB5, just substitute the I-130 and I-751 with I-526 and I-829.

If large numbers of previous EB5 applicants are asking for removal of conditions, it tends to say that the success rate has been quite high, even in difficult times. That will encourage others as the economic outlook improves. I'm not sure how long that will take to manifest itself - probably not this FY.

I do remember that USCIS have been criticised by both the Ombudsman and lawyers for the length of time it takes to complete EB5 processing, so I don't believe it is a particularly quick process.

[Spectator]

On another note - I-140 receipts show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.Q,

I suppose it depends how you look at the data. I don't really see that.

Yes, the figure is less than the beginning of the FY.

Year on Year, the figures remain higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 7,442 -- 4,566
Nov -- 7,839 -- 3,901
Dec -- 5,161 -- 4,337
Jan -- 6,056 -- 4,108
Feb -- 6,859 -- 4,969

Tot - 33,357 - 21,881

[qesehmk]

Spec

My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.

Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.

So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.

p.s. original post corrected.

Q,

I suppose it depends how you look at the data. I don't really see that.

Yes, the figure is less than the beginning of the FY.

Year on Year, the figures remain higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 7,442 -- 4,566
Nov -- 7,839 -- 3,901
Dec -- 5,161 -- 4,337
Jan -- 6,056 -- 4,108
Feb -- 6,859 -- 4,969

Tot - 33,357 - 21,881

[Gclongwait]

Just look up trackitt data.

I just did and you are right. Its really weird. I have not been on that site for a long time but I gave a search on All nationalities, all categories, approved perms and uptil end of Feb (i only saw Jan and Feb 2011)just about every working day has some entries and then from Mar 1 till today there are like 3 entries.

I don't even want to dare to guess over here because it could be anything. Obviously they are just sitting on them for some reason in all likelyhood to allow someone up the chain to clear their backlog.

[zenmaster]

I just did and you are right. Its really weird. I have not been on that site for a long time but I gave a search on All nationalities, all categories, approved perms and uptil end of Feb (i only saw Jan and Feb 2011)just about every working day has some entries and then from Mar 1 till today there are like 3 entries.

I don't even want to dare to guess over here because it could be anything. Obviously they are just sitting on them for some reason in all likelyhood to allow someone up the chain to clear their backlog.

Yes, it is wierd. Until Feb2011, PERM was being processed in as few as 3 days ! Come March 1st, and they stopped processing them completely ! I am not able to digest the reasoning of 'Govt Shutdown'. It is all planned. I am predicting that by September, the dates will move somewhere in 2008/2009 and then retrogress. This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !

[veni001]

Going back to what I mentioned earlier, China EB2 + 3 in 2010 as per PERM data (inlcuded certified and certified-expired) was only 3314 ! So EB2 is probably 50% (1657). Remember also that 2010 is a recovery year, so it's NOT like the 08 situation. So all fall-downs and fall-across go straight to EB2 India (once of course we cross 2007). This is great for EB2 I and even if you aren't that optimistic, at the very least you've got to assume that the reduction in China should somewhat offset the 'additional porting' that some as assuming, to leave India porting deduction no greater than 6000. Am I missing something?

vishnu,
Porting is a constant process and will have its peak and low points, assuming that FY 2011 will see its peak my guess would be porting will go back to normal(2-3k) in the coming year or two.

As a side note, most of the new EBI cases are trying their best get in EB2.

[qesehmk]

This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !
Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.

On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.

[vishnu]

veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.

[Gclongwait]

Yes, it is wierd. Until Feb2011, PERM was being processed in as few as 3 days ! Come March 1st, and they stopped processing them completely ! I am not able to digest the reasoning of 'Govt Shutdown'. It is all planned. I am predicting that by September, the dates will move somewhere in 2008/2009 and then retrogress. This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !

If they want to restrict new I-485's in EB2 for some reason then thats the only way to do it. On a side note... as long as getting a GC is the only long time goal you have, I think we are good. Please suppress all you other goals for the time being.

[veni001]

veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.

Yes, EBC demand dropped by 60% in 2008&2009 when compared to 2006&2007.

[veni001]

Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.

On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.

Q,
I am hoping USCIS got a reason in holding March Inventory update!:)

[anuran]

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

[zenmaster]

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ :)

[gcseeker]

With great power comes great responsibility...We the council of illuminati trusted you to keep the location of the chinese restaurant an secret between us and you.Now you have broken the sacred covenant.There will be consequences....We will have to send the terminator back in 2020 to retrogress the PD dates back to 1998.

I hope you are happy now Ravi.

Signed Illuminati
(Kindly excuse my stale comedy )


After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ :)

[anuran]

Gosh, now I got to go china chalet. I never knew it got mixed up with Illuminati and stuff. But I am far far away from there. Can someone buy themselves a meal, eat the cookie and post me the fortune note? Just the note, I care less for the lucky numbers.

Anyway, after reading all of the discussion above I see that we are more confused than ever and CIS plays the same unpredictable role in this drama. I just hope the cutoff moves into mid 2007. There are 50 reasons for it to and another 50 for it not to. Gook luck to all of us.

[Spectator]

Spec

My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.

Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.

So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.

p.s. original post corrected.Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

[qesehmk]

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)


Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

[veni001]

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

Spec,
As usual very good analysis, i believe completions include Rejections/Denials, am i correct?

Also if we compare pending(including customer action)i-140 cases with Oct 2009 its doubled (33 k Vs 16.7 k) and about 20% increase compared to Oct 2010(33k Vs 27.8k).

i140 receipts are about the same when compared to FY 2010, 77k Vs 33K from the first 5 months in FY 2011, but we know EB1 is down and EB2 is up within the 33k receipts from FY 2011.

[Spectator]

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

[Spectator]

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)Q,

Personally, I don't think it will affect this year either. The examples were merely illustrative of various scenarios.

I was just noting that in this case, when you rob Peter to pay Paul, it is only a loan. Peter needs to be paid back eventually! (sorry about the awful metaphor!)

How and when is, I agree, anybody's guess.

[qesehmk]

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2



Looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

[Spectator]

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2Q,

Agreed the PWD must be common to all processes. They only diverge upon I-140 approval.

Your point is well taken for Philippines (and Mexico). They don't have many EB2 cases anyway.

China, I'm not so sure. EB3-C definitely has high CP (30-40%). Even allowing for that, the number of EB3-C cases over a longer period is less than EB2-C over a shorter period.

I will factor in that M & P have few EB2 cases and report back. I still think the figures will be quite high and put a limit on the ratio that can be applied to ROW, since they represent a significant % of the total.

Again, thanks for pointing that out.

Edit: Thinking about it, the 50:50 used in the calculation s is for ROW-M-P, so the figures are valid. All it means is that the ROW EB2 component within the 50% is higher if M-P are lower. That is probably correct.

[veni001]

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year:)

[whistleblower]

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

[Gclongwait]

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post

[kd2008]

Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year:)

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

[qesehmk]

veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.


Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

[srinivasj]

You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post
whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

[MorningSun]

GoodMorning everyone, since the last time I have posted, India won the WorldCup and UConn won the National Title. How are things looking for EB2I with priority date of 1/29/07. Please enlighten.

Best to all.

[anuran]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

[whistleblower]

whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.

[srinivasj]

You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.
sorry if i misquoted...I was trying to point the same..

[gcwait2007]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

This can be written in Haiku, as follows:

Sitting on the wall
Either side or stagnant
Your mind


gcw07 :D

[anuran]

That sure is more elegant than what I said. :)

[MorningSun]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Sun ... take it easy. Read the header of the thread. That should answer you.


I didn't get it. Is this another way of saying I don't know.

Patient: Hey Doctor, am I pregnant.

Doctor: Well Well, my opinion is you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are pessimist, you may not conceive a child in 9 months. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

My fee is 150, please pay on your way out. Come back, if you are still confused in 2012.

[veni001]

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.


veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.

Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

[qesehmk]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.


Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

[veni001]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2? this will be a big factor when comes to porting calculations?


Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

Teddy,
My median salary comparison is only from EBI PERMs, if most of these ERMs from FY2011 are new (otherwise filed in EB1 cases), i don't think we will have very many porting cases from Q1 FY2011 data?

[Spectator]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.

PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.

To summarize, for Jan – Jul 2007

--------- China– India –Total

Existing – 5.5 ---9.8 ---- 15.3
PWMB ----- 1.9 ---5.0 ----- 6.9
Total ---- 7.4–- 14.8 ---- 22.2

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Jan --- 1.88%
Feb --- 3.47%
Mar --- 6.01%
Apr -- 14.30%
May -- 17.97%
Jun -- 21.85%
Jul -- 34.53%
Tot - 100.00%

As we might expect, the concentration increases the nearer we approach July 2007, so for early 2007 PD it is not a large factor.

PD Aug – Dec 2007

India has 9.6k PERM approved with a PD of Aug– Dec 2007. China has 2.2k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents approximately 10.7k Indian EB2 I-485 and 4.1k Chinese EB2I-485.

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Aug -- 19.21%
Sep -- 19.31%
Oct -- 22.13%
Nov -- 20.49%
Dec -- 18.86%
Tot - 100.00%

It appears to be a roughly equal monthly distribution.

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China &India

2007 ----Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1--- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4--- 21.7 --- 37.1

If anywhere close to correct, that is a big number for a single CY year. I don’t think that is anything we didn’t already know. Porting numbers would be in addition, to clear the year.

Of course, the above represents the worst case. In reality, they would probably be slightly lower due to attrition in the system.

What do other people think PWMB / post July2007 numbers are?

[qesehmk]

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China & India

2007 ---- Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3 ---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1 --- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4 --- 21.7 --- 37.1




Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.



- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. That may be true for some. However wouldnt employers be averse to filing both - especially when EB2 is so difficult given all the perm requirements?

For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement - EB1 doesn't have any labor for all countries. So didnt understand ....

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high - True and not true. Typically the salaries would be 20-30K higher. Depending on the industry they could be higher or lower than this range. However one more thing that needs to be considered is that the EB1 salaries we are talking here is a subset of the overall research salaries ... so while overall EB1 salaries may not be that eye poppingly high, the EB1 here could actually be. e.g. even for H1 or EB2 a company has to prove that they are paying equivalent or more money to the candidate BECAUSE there are fewer people who could do this job. Similarly for EB1 (except there is no labor.... but the pay philosophy applies). Think this way.... why would a US company hire somebody and go through filing GC unless the person isn't in top 5% of the similar pool. And if so ... wouldn't you expect teh salary to be at least 10-20% higher?


So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher. I think this certainly makes sense.




Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2?

I think filing another EB application is not that easy and not many employers would be willing to do that. As teddy said its hard to decipher. But 50% sounds quite high especially given that the PERMs are a mix of EB2-3. What I would ask is this - are we seeing unusual jump in EB2-3 PERMs? Now this question itself is silly because even if there is a jump... how do you attribute it to EB1 also filing theirs EB2? The jump could be an economic rebound. Or an underpaid DoL employee fatfingering the perm numbers!! Just kidding!!

[donvar]

[

[SIZE=3]This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006



PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.


Of course, the above represents the worst case.



If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

[Spectator]

If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

Donvar,

That is not stupid at all. In fact, it is a very astute question.

You are correct that I am using PWMB in the sense that the PERM was not approved in time to submit a concurrent I-140/I485 package before the door closed.

I didn't include new filings due to marriage etc, because those people weren't even at the boarding ramp at the time. They are an additional category in my own mind and would have to be added to the total numbers.

I have no idea what number they represent.

[veni001]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
.....................
.....................

Spec,
Looking at PERM certified data and i-485 inventory some how the factor 2.2 for i-485 is not matching!

2006 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 22.2k
2005PD - 7.2k
2006PD-15.0K
2007 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 24.5k
2006PD - 8.3k
2007PD-16.2K
2008 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 16.5k
2007PD - 4.0k
2008PD-12.5K

Total EBI with PD2006 =15+8.3=23.3k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.5?(PERM to i485)


2006 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.7k
2005PD - 2.6k
2006PD-4.1K
2007 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.8k
2006PD - 2.1k
2007PD-4.7K
2008 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 3.3k
2007PD - 1.0k
2008PD- 2.3K

Total EBC with PD2006 =4.1+2.1=6.2k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.7?(PERM to i485)

Am I Missing something here?

[Spectator]

Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.

Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

[anuran]

Edited...This post could be deleted too. Tnx. (Reason: irrelevant)

[Spectator]

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

[veni001]

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

Ok got it,
Thanks Spec,

[veni001]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
.....................
......................


Spec,
I wend back and looked at the PERM data, this time based on receipt number(PD).
I agree there may be only few with 2006 PD missed the boat. But, still PD to i485 factor is not even close?

2006 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 79.7k

INDIA - 22.3k
PD2005 - 8.2k
PD2006 - 14.1k

China - 6.7k
PD2005 - 2.8k
PD2006 - 3.9k

2007 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 85.1k

INDIA- 24.5k
PD2005 - 393
PD2006 - 11.4k
PD2007 -12.7k

China - 6.8k
PD2005 - 186
PD2006 - 3.0k
PD2007-3.6k

2008 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 49.2k

INDIA- 16.5k
PD2005 - 27
PD2006 - 108
PD2007 -8.3k
PD2008-8.0k

China - 3.3k
PD2005 - 8
PD2006 - 39
PD2007-1.9k
PD2008-1.4k

2009 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 29.5k

INDIA- 11.3k
PD2005 - 5
PD2006 - 54
PD2007 -962
PD2008-10.0k
PD2009-8

China - 2.1k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 16
PD2007- 179
PD2008- 1.9k
PD2009- 2

2010 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 70.2k

INDIA- 28.9k
PD2005 - 1
PD2006 - 11
PD2007 - 1.0k
PD2008- 3.7k
PD2009- 15.0k
PD2010- 9.2k

China - 4.0k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 3
PD2007- 198
PD2008- 666
PD2009- 2.2k
PD2010- 1.0k

India PD2006(EB2&3) = 14.1k+11.4k~=25.5k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.33?(PERM to i485)

China PD2006(EB2&3) = 3.9k+3.6k~=7.5k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)
Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.41?(PERM to i485)

I hope i am not making the same mistake again?:confused:

[qesehmk]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?



Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

[Spectator]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

[gcwait2007]

Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

[veni001]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?


Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

Q & Spec,
Here is the PWMB for EBI-2006&2007 - from FY2007-2010 PERM Disclosure data.

EBI (2&3) PD2006 approvals from JULY 2007 to Sept 2010
FY 2007= 83
FY2008= 108
FY2009= 54
FY2010=11
Total= 256 only

EBI (2&3) PD2007 PERM approvals after JULY 2007 are as follows

------------Approved in FY (after July 2007)-----------
------------2007---2008----- 2009---Total-----%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22------- 9-------61------- 0.46%
Feb 2007---52-------45--------20------117-------0.89%
Mar 2007---119-----46--------14------179-------1.36%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36------270-------2.05%
May2007----369----110-------38------517-------3.93%
Jun2007---493-----283-------41------817-------6.21%
Jul 2007----441----469-------141-----1,051----7.99%
Aug 2007---561----939-------220-----1,720----13.07%
Sept2007--434----1,606-----245-----2,285----17.37%
Oct 2007---793----1,686-----138-----2,617----19.89%
Nov2007---328----1,557-----30------ 1,609----14.55%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------ 1,609----12.23%
Total-----3,851--8,345-----962----13,158---100%

Looking at the data there are only 14.9 %(1.9k) of EBI (2&3) with PD before JULY 2007 are approved after July 2007, you do the split between EB2&3, apply the factors for i140&i485 to get the PWMB numbers.

50% of the 2007 PWMB for IND are in the months of Aug-Sept-Oct of 2007.

Bottom line is, there are about 13.3k EBI (2&3) PERM applications got certified after July 2007 with PD until Sept 2007, this number include porting (at that time). I assume EBC situation will be proportional and USCIS may not see any PWMB impact until EB2I&C PD is moved into June 2007.

Based on the processing time PWMB cases will not get a number from FY 2011, USCIS may have to move dates at least to JULY 2007 to fully utilize all SOFAD numbers this year, but based on PWMB applications, they have to move dates back to APRIL 2007 in OCTOBER2011!

Let me know what your thoughts/predictions/updates!

[Spectator]

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

[veni001]

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

We are on the same page, great.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

Spec,
Thanks, i forgot to include PD2007 approvals from FY 2010, which i included below

-----------EBI(2&3) PERM Certifications (after July 2007)-------
------------2007----2008----2009---2010------Total------%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22 ------- 9-------1----------62---------0.44%
Feb 2007--- 52-------45--------20------5---------122--------0.86%
Mar 2007--- 119-----46--------14-------3---------182--------1.29%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36-------3---------273- -------1.93%
May 2007----369----110------- 38-------6---------523--------3.69%
Jun 2007---493-----283-------41------ 12---------829-------5.85%
Jul 2007----441----469------- 141-----17--------1,068------7.54%
Aug 2007---561----939------- 220-----52---------1,772---- 12.51%
Sept2007--434----1,606----- 245-----88---------2,373---- 16.75%
Oct 2007--- 793----1,686----- 138----220--------2,837----16.75%
Nov 2007--- 328----1,557----- 30------291-------2,206-----15.58%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------307--------1,916----13.58%
Total----3,851----8,345-----962---1,005-----14,163----100%

Sorry, table is not that great, i have hard time with it.

Also there are 25 EBI(2&3) PD 2007 certifications from Q1FY2011.

[qesehmk]

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.



Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

[anuran]

That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

[veni001]

That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

anuran,
That's right, about 17.4k EBI&C PERM certifications after JULY 2007 with PD in 2007, we are talking about an additional 20k(just in FY 2007) EB2(I&C) PWMB cases awaiting to file i485, in addition to porting numbers.