EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[leo07]

Hi cool189, first post on the first page has the summary. It's updated periodically.

Well .. it takes lot of time to go through each post to get the reasons .. is there any summary for this thread?

[Spectator]

I agree a wage only approach won't work for EB2 vs. EB3.

I have my doubts about other combinations as well.

To add to an earlier post, the breakdown by Annual Salary is as below. I have normalized the hourly / weekly amounts and corrected some real whoppers, such as the Cook earning 420,000 a year!

Ann. Salary ----- No. ----- % ------ Cum. %

500k + ------------ 6 ---- 0.07% ---- 0.07%
400-499.9k -------- 8 ---- 0.10% ---- 0.17%
300-399.9k ------- 33 ---- 0.41% ---- 0.58%
200-299.9k ------ 149 ---- 1.85% ---- 2.43%
100-199.9k ---- 1,626 --- 20.19% --- 22.63%
90-99.9k -------- 589 ---- 7.31% --- 29.94%
80-89.9k -------- 777 ---- 9.65% --- 39.59%
70-79.9k -------- 813 --- 10.10% --- 49.69%
60-69.9k -------- 827 --- 10.27% --- 59.96%
50-59.9k -------- 812 --- 10.08% --- 70.04%
Under 50k ----- 2,412 --- 29.96% -- 100.00%

Totals -------- 8,052 -- 100.00%

Hope it helps someone.

[shaumack]

Spec, Can we get further breakdown of ROW individuals between 100-200K? I think many ROW individuals who could have filed in EB1-C would prefer filing this year in EB2-ROW just to avoid extensive scrutiny with EB1s. As if now it seems there are about 1800 individuals with salary above 100K. If we can further breakdown number between 100K-200K, we could try to guesstimate reduction in demand from EB1 that can be assumed towards EB2-ROW for FY 2011. I would think good percentage of individuals with salary above 150K could be Managers who could have filed under EB1-C.




[FONT="Courier New"]Ann. Salary ----- No. ----- % ------ Cum. %

500k + ------------ 6 ---- 0.07% ---- 0.07%
400-499.9k -------- 8 ---- 0.10% ---- 0.17%
300-399.9k ------- 33 ---- 0.41% ---- 0.58%
200-299.9k ------ 149 ---- 1.85% ---- 2.43%
100-199.9k ---- 1,626 --- 20.19% --- 22.63%
.

[veni001]

Safe to assume that 100k+ equates to EB2?
Once the inventory is filled (the current 25k odd of EB2 I&C), would they open up the dates again to current or likely to just move it every month by 2-3 months at a time?

25k will not suffice to clear EB2(I&C) backlog through July 2007 so no chance of making EB2 current! Assuming 3-6 months of processing time for i-485 they may have to open EB2 (I&C) at least until Dec 2007 to see how much more demand they got, my guesstimate is that this will not happen until Sept 2012!

[qesehmk]

Guys some interesting labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA ROW Q1 2011 Labor Data. One can draw wild conclusions from this ... so be careful. But interesting nonetheless.

a) 96 cases approved indicating ratio of 69 between trackitt and actual
b) approved cases mostly EB2 92/96 (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on ROW EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
c) median turnaround time at 50 days
d) pending inventory at 306 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 69 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
e) of all pending ONLY 4-5 cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

The last point is where it really becomes interesting. If new labor demand continues to dwindle then the chances of SOFAD going beyond Mar 07 increase significantly. Q2 labor data will probably be quite telling.

[zenmaster]

USCIS Budget allowance increases 55% !!!
Looks like one less reason for them to open the doors this year :(
Source (http://www.immigration-law.com)

Just dreaming that we have a huge SOFAD this year, so that we all get covered ;)

[bhayzone]

Some more stats for 2010 PERM. Count of PERM certified by country. Note this list contains only those PERMS with wage > 50k (sorry, had to do this to reduce the row count)

Below is a snapshot. For full list, see the attached file 2010_perm.txt
COUNTRY_OF_CITZENSHIP PERM COUNT
INDIA 27378
CHINA 3378
CANADA 3309
SOUTH KOREA 2362
PHILIPPINES 1382
UNITED KINGDOM 1148
PAKISTAN 919
TAIWAN 872
MEXICO 849
GERMANY 576
TURKEY 569
JAPAN 527
FRANCE 511
BRAZIL 464
VENEZUELA 460
NEPAL 416
RUSSIA 412
COLOMBIA 407
ISRAEL 377

[Spectator]

Guys some interesting labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA ROW Q1 2011 Labor Data. One can draw wild conclusions from this ... so be careful. But interesting nonetheless.

a) 96 cases approved indicating ratio of 69 between trackitt and actual
b) approved cases mostly EB2 92/96 (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on ROW EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
c) median turnaround time at 50 days
d) pending inventory at 306 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 69 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
e) of all pending ONLY 4-5 cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

The last point is where it really becomes interesting. If new labor demand continues to dwindle then the chances of SOFAD going beyond Mar 07 increase significantly. Q2 labor data will probably be quite telling.I admit I am feeling in quite a wicked mood, so I apologize in advance.

Q already knows I don't like using Trackitt data over short periods and I know he is a good sport.

Q has already made the point that his post was made with a BIG health warning. This serves to back that message up.

Here are the same labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA India Q1 2011 Labor Data.

a) 343 cases approved indicating ratio of 27 between trackitt and actual of 9,299
b) approved cases mostly EB2 298/343 (88%) (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on Indian EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
c) median turnaround time at 49 days
d) pending inventory at 660 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 27 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
e) of all pending ONLY 31 (5%) cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

The stats are fairly similar. I don't think any of us believe India won't represent 40-50% of total PERM approvals and that they won't be very high.

Just saying ..... :p

[qesehmk]

;) I get the wicked point ..... it was funny until I realized that India EB3 story is the same as ROW EB3 here.

But anyway .. what's the point Guru (other than the wicked one!) ;)


I admit I am feeling in quite a wicked mood, so I apologize in advance.

Q already knows I don't like using Trackitt data over short periods and I know he is a good sport.

Q has already made the point that his post was made with a BIG health warning. This serves to back that message up.

Here are the same labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA India Q1 2011 Labor Data.

a) 343 cases approved indicating ratio of 27 between trackitt and actual of 9,299
b) approved cases mostly EB2 298/343 (88%) (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on Indian EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
c) median turnaround time at 49 days
d) pending inventory at 660 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 27 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
e) of all pending ONLY 31 (5%) cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

The stats are fairly similar. I don't think any of us believe India won't represent 40-50% of total PERM approvals and that they won't be very high.

Just saying ..... :p

[Spectator]

;) I get the wicked point ..... it was funny until I realized that India EB3 story is the same as ROW EB3 here.

But anyway .. what's the point Guru (other than the wicked one!) ;)The point would be that the data can't be extrapolated to indicate that EB2-ROW will be low in the future. Not yet anyway. Otherwise, we would have to draw the same conclusion for EB2-India as well. I don't think either of us believe that would be true.

It wasn't intended as criticism (although some people might think so). You already know I am quite sensitive to that accusation.

Rather it was a statement about Trackitt statistics and the inherent dangers of using them independent of other corroborating evidence.

I think that is the approach you favor as well and rather nicely sums up the EB1 "problem", which still seems as insoluble as ever.

I think it is fair that other readers of the forum should be aware of that to help them weigh the evidence accordingly.

[qesehmk]

I don't think there is any disagreement about limitations of trackitt data. That's why all the disclaimers right? However your logic about India and ROW comparison is flawed.


The point would be that the data can't be extrapolated to indicate that EB2-ROW will be low in the future. Not yet anyway. Otherwise, we would have to draw the same conclusion for EB2-India as well. I don't think either of us believe that would be true.

It wasn't intended as criticism (although some people might think so). You already know I am quite sensitive to that accusation.

Rather it was a statement about Trackitt statistics and the inherent dangers of using them independent of other corroborating evidence.

I think that is the approach you favor as well and rather nicely sums up the EB1 "problem", which still seems as insoluble as ever.

I think it is fair that other readers of the forum should be aware of that to help them weigh the evidence accordingly.

[kd2008]

I have disagreed with nearly all predictions here. But I have also learnt a lot from what others have to say. I have understood that being critical of analysis is not the same as being critical of the person. I may not like the way things might be said, but I keep in mind that we are all together in this. Thats what keeps me going. After all, we won't be discussing things here if DOS and USCIS were transparent in their dealings.

[donvar]

I am a new member so pardon for any repetition. I am sure but still writing down if this data has been used in analysis.

Jan 05 2011 Pending I 485 Inventory. (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf)

[gcwait2007]

Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 565 4978
Aug-06 1677 693 7348
Sep-06 1745 773 9866
Oct-06 1747 732 12345
Nov-06 1737 667 14749
Dec-06 1881 770 17400

Jan-07 1540 654 19594
Feb-07 1444 615 21653


Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

*Using 140,00 total EB visas -

EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 558 6648
Sep-06 1745 773 9166
Oct-06 1747 732 11645
Nov-06 1737 667 14049
Dec-06 1881 770 16700

Jan-07 1540 654 18894
Feb-07 1444 615 20953

With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 0 6090
Sep-06 1745 631 8466
Oct-06 1747 732 10945
Nov-06 1737 667 13349
Dec-06 1881 770 16000

Jan-07 1540 654 18194
Feb-07 1444 615 20253

I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.

[veni001]

I joined here after seeing link in trackitt.

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Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.

Valid point, but what ever porting happens until June will show up in inventory so USCIS/DOS calculations for date movement will include those numbers before they set the dates for July VB.

[qesehmk]

Don, welcome! Initially I used to use it. But the model is better when you use it with baseline (i.e. 1 oct data). For eB2IC anyway the change doesn't mean much since its only 250 per month.


I am a new member so pardon for any repetition. I am sure but still writing down if this data has been used in analysis.

Jan 05 2011 Pending I 485 Inventory. (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf)





I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.



If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.

GCW welcome! good to see you join here too. your post is good and in line with what a lot of people are thinking. I esp agree w your estimate of conversions as well as Ron's observation that PWMB won't matter since they haven't even yet appleid for 485 and hence it will be 6 months before they can get through even if they become elgiible for 485.

However I am not sure about your date movement aanalysis. I think you are basing it off of demand data which is why your movement is a bit aggressive. You need to use 485 data and then keep some room for conversions and CP.

[gcwait2007]

However I am not sure about your date movement aanalysis. I think you are basing it off of demand data which is why your movement is a bit aggressive. You need to use 485 data and then keep some room for conversions and CP.

Demand Data and I-485 data are same.

Demand data provides data year wise, while I-485 data provides data month wise, EB category wise and country chargeability wise.

Demand data is recent and calculated every month, while I-485 data is calculated once in a quarter.

For example, demand data 17500 for the year ended 2006 tallies with I-485 data summation 17353 for the year 2006 from May 2006 to Dec 2006.

I would also like to mention that there are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data may be available on quarterly basis, however it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments. . As I am unable to estimate Spillover figures, I provided generic analysis.

However my hunch says that there would be spillover around 20K+ visas and cut off date would be end of Feb 2007.

[qesehmk]

In this case those two sets match quite close because overall demand has subdued naturally in ROW and because of retrogression in IC.

But those two sets are two different things in reality. Demand data is "Documentarily Qualified" i.e. everything is complete except visa allocation. 485 inventory includes cases that may haven't done background check and other formalities. So be careful in using them.

Check out the header of this thread where we have estimated 2011 demand. Of course as you said, that is a bit of guesswork and so we try to reduce uncertainty by relying on solid data such as prior year actuals, 140-485 data, labor data etc. Once you spend some time on thread you will get a better hang of what others are doing.

Regarding your dates estimation, 20K spillover will hardly take through Nov. based on 1 oct 2010 inventory. So that's why I am a bit surprised why you think it would be end of Feb!

Appreciate your contribution.


Demand Data and I-485 data are same.

Demand data provides data year wise, while I-485 data provides data month wise, EB category wise and country chargeability wise.

Demand data is recent and calculated every month, while I-485 data is calculated once in a quarter.

For example, demand data 17500 for the year ended 2006 tallies with I-485 data summation 17353 for the year 2006 from May 2006 to Dec 2006.

I would also like to mention that there are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data may be available on quarterly basis, however it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments. . As I am unable to estimate Spillover figures, I provided generic analysis.

However my hunch says that there would be spillover around 20K+ visas and cut off date would be end of Feb 2007.

[gcwait2007]

But those two sets are two different things in reality. Demand data is "Documentarily Qualified" i.e. everything is complete except visa allocation. 485 inventory includes cases that may haven't done background check and other formalities. So be careful in using them.

I beg to differ here. Unless an application is documentarily qualified and eligible for issuing visa, it would not be included in the list of pending I-485 Inventory list. There were comments made in the USCIS blogs some time ago.


Regarding your dates estimation, 20K spillover will hardly take through Nov. based on 1 oct 2010 inventory. So that's why I am a bit surprised why you think it would be end of Feb!

1-Oct-2010 inventory is old and does not account for regular issuance of visas.

Spillover will be calculated and allocated to EB2I&C on the basis of position as of 30th June 2011, after regular issuance of visas for the first 9 months.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

India China Total
May-06 1110 0 1110
Jun-06 1696 0 2806
Jul-06 1505 0 4311
Aug-06 1677 0 5988
Sep-06 1745 385 8118
Oct-06 1747 732 10597
Nov-06 1737 667 13001
Dec-06 1881 770 15652

Jan-07 1540 654 17846
Feb-07 1444 615 19905

If there are 20K spillover visas, it would reach end of Feb 2007.

Assumption is that EB3I to EB2I porting each month is equivalent to monthly issue/ supply of visas. If the porting numbers exceed in the coming months, then the cut off date will reduce accordingly.

[qesehmk]

Were those comments made by USCIS officials? It would be even more useful if those comments were in some official document.

There is a very simple reason why those two inventories are not same. The CP demand is included in Demand Data whereas in 485 it is not.

I get your point about spillover. By that definition SOFAD will be 26K which can potentially bring the date in Feb. I agree. Today I am projecting SOFAD at 23K of which 3K goes to conversions and 6K is the regular IC quota. So real spillover is really 17K rather than 20K. So with 3K difference it is possible that instead of Nov the date may move to Jan. I think the missing month is probably explained by 3K conversions.

p.s. - I would rather use 1 oct inventory since that pegs it at the start of the year so easy to build a model that talks about full year demand. But that's fine. We are close.


I beg to differ here. Unless an application is documentarily qualified and eligible for issuing visa, it would not be included in the list of pending I-485 Inventory list. There were comments made in the USCIS blogs some time ago.

1-Oct-2010 inventory is old and does not account for regular issuance of visas.

Spillover will be calculated and allocated to EB2I&C on the basis of position as of 30th June 2011, after regular issuance of visas for the first 9 months.

[gcwait2007]

Were those comments made by USCIS officials? It would be even more useful if those comments were in some official document.

There is a very simple reason why those two inventories are not same. The CP demand is included in Demand Data whereas in 485 it is not.

I get your point about spillover. By that definition SOFAD will be 26K which can potentially bring the date in Feb. I agree. Today I am projecting SOFAD at 23K of which 3K goes to conversions and 6K is the regular IC quota. So real spillover is really 17K rather than 20K. So with 3K difference it is possible that instead of Nov the date may move to Jan. I think the missing month is probably explained by 3K conversions.

p.s. - I would rather use 1 oct inventory since that pegs it at the start of the year so easy to build a model that talks about full year demand. But that's fine. We are close.

Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.

Monthly Determination of Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates
The chart below shows the estimated total number of visas available for each employment preference
category and country for fiscal year 2011.
*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be reduced by 1,000. A total of
300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the E5 category.
Each month, the Visa Office subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the
INA into monthly allotments based on totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants reported at
consular posts and CIS Offices, grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference category, and priority date. If
there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the
category is considered "Current." For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only
demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified
applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the
category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date
is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa
number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and there is demand for 8,000 applicants, then it would be
necessary to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off
would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.

[shaumack]

To gcwait2007 - nice analysis

a) First of all as Q mentioned that how SOFAD is calculated here is little different than you are calculating. But at end of the day, you both are talking about same thing.

Here to calculate SOFAD, we are taking into account IC Demand based on I-485 inventory + Visa numbers numbers used by EB3-EB2 porting which should be equal to Spillover received after June 30th 2011 + visa allocation to EB2-IC (5600). (Please correct me if I am wrong)

So if we think PD will reach 1 Jan 2007, we will need SOFAD = 20130 (to reach PD 1 Jan 2007) + 3000 (Porting based on current demand data) = Spillover received after June 30, 2011 + 5600.

Spillover required after June 30, 2011 = 20130 + 3000 -5600 = 17,530, which matches closely with what you are saying in your Mar 2011 calculation and what Q mentioned in his last post.

b) You are absolutely right that USCIS/DOL would use demand data to calculate cut-off dates. It makes sense to use demand data as long as you can account for number of visas that are used from 5,600 till date, CP cases added each month and EB3-EB2 porting happening every month. USCIS is aware of this but unfortunately we are not.

I do not believe that USCIS religiously use 233 visa numbers to calculate demand data every month for retrogressed countries like India and China; because it is impossible to guesstimate EB3-EB2 upgrades and CP cases. This could be inferred from demand data that would move up and down exactly by 25 each month for India, which is little difficult for me to digest. So there is lot of rounding and guesstimates that goes into this. USCIS would try to keep good buffer so to avoid advancement and retrogression for EB2-I every month. They can always use these visas later towards last quarter when they have more clear picture and real numbers. So I would not bank on Demand Data until June 2011 for my calculation. I-485 inventory is good place to continue our prediction until June 30, 2011. By the time we will reach June 30, 2011, we would also have an updated I-485 inventory list.



Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.


My understanding from Ron's comments is that DoS/ Charles Oppenheim uses demand data for deciding cut-off date than using I-485 inventory data. Ron mentioned that establishment of a cutoff date is an art, not a science. More than anything else, he thinks that they use a sense of how they feel about a particular category if it is a very close call. For example, if the category is trending toward faster forward movement, then they would likely go with the later date. If it is moving slowly, they would likely go with the earlier date.



The demand data position for March 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1110 0 1110
Jun-06 1696 0 2806
Jul-06 1505 620 4931
Aug-06 1677 693 7301
Sep-06 1745 773 9819
Oct-06 1747 732 12298
Nov-06 1737 667 14702
Dec-06 1881 770 17353

[qesehmk]

There is a difference in setting a priority date based on demand data and predicting full year spillover and how much GC backlog will be cleared. DoS is not concerned with the latter. So its ok for them to use demand data.

However, for us using demand data to do latter would be fundamentally wrong.


Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.

[Osaka001]

I-140 Trend,

Date Pending RFE Completions Receipts
Oct09 14226 2549 6149 4566
Nov09 13645 2383 5658 3901
Dec09 12648 2329 5604 4337
Jan10 12451 1809 6101 4108
Feb10 11196 1999 5584 4969
Mar10 11697 2030 7343 7526
Apr10 13495 2177 7482 7762
May10 14676 1829 6067 7795
Jun10 17712 1487 6310 8699
Jul10 18786 1639 5960 7130
Aug10 20831 1742 6237 8766
Sep10 24002 1561 5251 7721

Oct10 26582 1219 5497 7442
Nov10 28176 1510 5386 7839
Dec10 28607 1724 5833 5161

[kd2008]

Thanks O!

Nov10 28176 1510 5386 7839
Dec10 28607 1724 5833 5161

Whoa! Big drop in receipts! We will see if it sticks. How come pending numbers did not decrease?

[Osaka001]

Looks like USCIS is slow for last 5-6 months, pending cases are piling up .
Next 2-3 months would give us better clarity on PERM -> I-140 numbers.

[leo07]

Thanks O & Kd.
I think it is still high, if you look @ YOY.

On a different note: Spec we like you around here. Just in case, if you are still off:)

[Osaka001]

Yes Leo,
The YoY is high, As discussed in this forum earlier , The DOL started clearing backlog cases from Mar'10 onwards and It continued till Jan-Feb this year. Only +ve thing is the trend is decreasing for the last 3 months MoM. If this trend continues further, its good for us. I Hope we have less number of PERM/I-140s filed coming months.

[srinivasj]

Yes Leo,
The YoY is high, As discussed in this forum earlier , The DOL started clearing backlog cases from Mar'10 onwards and It continued till Jan-Feb this year. Only +ve thing is the trend is decreasing for the last 3 months MoM. If this trend continues further, its good for us. I Hope we have less number of PERM/I-140s filed coming months.

or it just could be that reduction is due to holidays(thanksgiving to new year)

[qesehmk]

O,

Welcome and thanks. Here is "A" way to look at your data.
In 2010 - 73.7K completions contributed to 26.5K SOFAD @150 full quota.
In 2010 - 66.8K (projected) completions => 7K less 140 => 5K less EB1+EB2-ROW 140 => 10K less EB1+EB2-ROW 485 => 10K quota is fully offset by reduced demand => 2010 net SOFAD repeated in 2011 => 26.5K net SOFAD => 30K total SOFAD => EB2 IC date movement upto Apr-May 2007.

Of course the 2 key assumptions above are : 1) YTD 140 demand linearly projected to full year 2) 2K reduced 140 demand will be due to EB3.

Just a few thoughts guys ... don't mean to get people excited. But painted just one of the many possibilities.





Yes Leo,
The YoY is high, As discussed in this forum earlier , The DOL started clearing backlog cases from Mar'10 onwards and It continued till Jan-Feb this year. Only +ve thing is the trend is decreasing for the last 3 months MoM. If this trend continues further, its good for us. I Hope we have less number of PERM/I-140s filed coming months.

[veni001]

or it just could be that reduction is due to holidays(thanksgiving to new year)

srinivasj,
It could be, the following are the PERM labor approvals(ballpark) by month for Q1 2011

October 2010 - 4,100
November 2010 - 6,100
December 2010 - 8,150

Also, it will take few weeks before employer/attorney can file i140 upon PERM approval.

Even though all approved labors may not make it to i140, Based on the above data we can expect more receipts starting January 2011.

[veni001]

O,

Welcome and thanks. Here is "A" way to look at your data.
In 2010 - 73.7K completions contributed to 26.5K SOFAD @150 full quota.
In 2010 - 66.8K (projected) completions => 7K less 140 => 5K less EB1+EB2-ROW 140 => 10K less EB1+EB2-ROW 485 => 10K quota is fully offset by reduced demand => 2010 net SOFAD repeated in 2011 => 26.5K net SOFAD => 30K total SOFAD => EB2 IC date movement upto Apr-May 2007.

Of course the 2 key assumptions above are : 1) YTD 140 demand linearly projected to full year 2) 2K reduced 140 demand will be due to EB3.

Just a few thoughts guys ... don't mean to get people excited. But painted just one of the many possibilities.

Q,
Based on Q1 2011 PERM data we can expect more i140 receipts starting January 2011.

[admin]

Why do you think so. Is it because ... you think Q1 2011 saw PERM surge?


Q,
Based on Q1 2011 PERM data we can expect more i140 receipts starting January 2011.

[gcwait2007]

Here is "A" way to look at your data.
In 2010 - 73.7K completions contributed to 26.5K SOFAD @150 full quota.
In 2010 - 66.8K (projected) completions => 7K less 140 => 5K less EB1+EB2-ROW 140 => 10K less EB1+EB2-ROW 485 => 10K quota is fully offset by reduced demand => 2010 net SOFAD repeated in 2011 => 26.5K net SOFAD => 30K total SOFAD => EB2 IC date movement upto Apr-May 2007.

Of course the 2 key assumptions above are : 1) YTD 140 demand linearly projected to full year 2) 2K reduced 140 demand will be due to EB3.

Just a few thoughts guys ... don't mean to get people excited. But painted just one of the many possibilities.

Interesting data and interesting observation. Q's view shows estimated SOFAD about 30K which is 3.5K more than last year, which I wish to come true.

[leo07]

LOL( your question was part of veni001's post/answer)

In reality, shouldn't we worry about only Q1 & Q2. for folks whose dates are current, like ROW, does CIS/DOS reserve/allot a visa right at the time of 140 or after 140 is approved?( Documentarily qualifed stage).

If it's not until after 140 is approved, Thanks to CIS, we'll need to worry only about Q1 in that case.


Why do you think so. Is it because ... you think Q1 2011 saw PERM surge?

[soggadu]

in this scenario what is the chance of CIS opening doors for new applicants atleast till end of 2007?

[kd2008]

Why do you think so. Is it because ... you think Q1 2011 saw PERM surge?

I think you did not read the post above that. Veni had figured out the following PERM approval numbers:

October 2010 - 4,100
November 2010 - 6,100
December 2010 - 8,150

It may be a couple of months for Dec approvals to file I-140. Hence we may see an increase in receipts. Not necessarily a surge.

[leo07]

0%. They admitted that it was a mistake the first time around. All parties have learned a lesson out of that saga. In fact, I think both CIS and DOS have become more consistent post Jul-07.

in this scenario what is the chance of CIS opening doors for new applicants atleast till end of 2007?

[veni001]

Why do you think so. Is it because ... you think Q1 2011 saw PERM surge?

Actually there isn't any surge in Q1 PERM approval data, demand is almost similar to FY 2010 but if you look at the approvals 3/4 rd of the approvals are in Nov & Dec so is will take few weeks before these applications get to USCIS.

[qesehmk]

140 approvals happen throughout the year and so do PERM. So what you quote couldn't be a reason why there would be a surge (if there is going to be a 140 surge).


I think you did not read the post above that. Veni had figured out the following PERM approval numbers:

October 2010 - 4,100
November 2010 - 6,100
December 2010 - 8,150

It may be a couple of months for Dec approvals to file I-140. Hence we may see an increase in receipts. Not necessarily a surge.


Actually there isn't any surge in Q1 PERM approval data, demand is almost similar to FY 2010 but if you look at the approvals 2/3 rd of the approvals are in Nov & Dec so is will take few weeks before these applications get to USCIS.

Same as above .... approvals happen throughout year. PERM 140 and 485 all are being filled through out the year. 485 is a bit special in that it needs date to be current. So teh nov / Dec PERMs when hit the 140 queue is not any unusual unless the approval rate itsel was high.

p.s. - For a given quarter one would expect that two months out of 3 constitute roughly 2/3 demand. Not sure if we are not speaking the same things!!

[veni001]

140 approvals happen throughout the year and so do PERM. So what you quote couldn't be a reason why there would be a surge (if there is going to be a 140 surge).

..................

p.s. - For a given quarter one would expect that two months out of 3 constitute roughly 2/3 demand. Not sure if we are not speaking the same things!!

Q,
Sorry it's my typo, actually 3/4th of Q1 PERM approvals are in November(43%) and December(57%).

[qesehmk]

Alright. Thanks. Lets see in next few months.


Q,
Sorry it's my typo, actually 3/4th of Q1 PERM approvals are in November(43%) and December(57%).

[leo07]

Although the 1-40 & PERM approvals happen all round the year. Over the years, we have consistently seen DOL & CIS shuffle resources across various applications. Like H1-B,Ag-Jobs etc depending on the season, I guess. The same is reflected in approval-times in Trackitt, if you take slice(4-6 mon) of any application & compare the processing dates with a different slice, it varies considrably.

140 approvals happen throughout the year and so do PERM. So what you quote couldn't be a reason why there would be a surge (if there is going to be a 140 surge).





Same as above .... approvals happen throughout year. PERM 140 and 485 all are being filled through out the year. 485 is a bit special in that it needs date to be current. So teh nov / Dec PERMs when hit the 140 queue is not any unusual unless the approval rate itsel was high.

p.s. - For a given quarter one would expect that two months out of 3 constitute roughly 2/3 demand. Not sure if we are not speaking the same things!!

[qesehmk]

Makes sense. We have to wait and see if that 2-3 months of data turns into a trend.


Although the 1-40 & PERM approvals happen all round the year. Over the years, we have consistently seen DOL & CIS shuffle resources across various applications. Like H1-B,Ag-Jobs etc depending on the season, I guess. The same is reflected in approval-times in Trackitt, if you take slice(4-6 mon) of any application & compare the processing dates with a different slice, it varies considrably.

[hsinghjkaur]

Makes sense. We have to wait and see if that 2-3 months of data turns into a trend.

Q, are we considering the case where companies couldn't file for Green Card/Labor for last 2 years due to layoff's and are starting to file now for all the ROW candidates from the last 2 years? Most big companies fell in this category I believe. This could surge the ROW approvals and thus reduce the SOFAD?

[qesehmk]

Q, are we considering the case where companies couldn't file for Green Card/Labor for last 2 years due to layoff's and are starting to file now for all the ROW candidates from the last 2 years? Most big companies fell in this category I believe. This could surge the ROW approvals and thus reduce the SOFAD?

I think that threat is not substantial. There is no backlog in ROW EB2 created as a result of recession (unlike IC that added to the backlog that already existted). So for ROW its really FRESH demand. The jobs are coming back but they are not coming back roaring. And even if they did come back roaring, it takes time for them to work their way through teh inventory. Secondly any demand surge is DEFINITELY going to pale in comparison with backlog clearance sale we saw in 2010 for EB2ROW. So in nutshell I would be very surprised if EB2-ROW consumed a lot of visas because of NEW demand. If anything it would be prior year PERM remaining backlog that was cleared which is we are expecting to hit 140 and 485 queues.

[veni001]

I think that threat is not substantial. There is no backlog in ROW EB2 created as a result of recession (unlike IC that added to the backlog that already existted). So for ROW its really FRESH demand. The jobs are coming back but they are not coming back roaring. And even if they did come back roaring, it takes time for them to work their way through teh inventory. Secondly any demand surge is DEFINITELY going to pale in comparison with backlog clearance sale we saw in 2010 for EB2ROW. So in nutshell I would be very surprised if EB2-ROW consumed a lot of visas because of NEW demand. If anything it would be prior year PERM remaining backlog that was cleared which is we are expecting to hit 140 and 485 queues.


Also,Q1 PERM data for FY 2011 doesn't show any ROW surge, only 6,596 ROW PERM certifications compared to 30,644 ROW PERM certifications for entire FY 2010!

[gcwait2007]

Also,Q1 PERM data for FY 2011 doesn't show any ROW surge, only 6,596 ROW PERM certifications compared to 30,644 ROW PERM certifications for entire FY 2010!

This is a good news. So we can expect more spill over from EB2 ROW.

EB5 will provide spillover about 8.5K to 9K, as it has been providing from year after year.

EB1 should not eat away the EB5 spillover, that is the only worry I have.

[veni001]

This is a good news. So we can expect more spill over from EB2 ROW.

EB5 will provide spillover about 8.5K to 9K, as it has been providing from year after year.

EB1 should not eat away the EB5 spillover, that is the only worry I have.

gcwait2007,
I think we need to wait until Q2 PERM data out before drawing any conclusion.

[mygctracker]

Folks,

Have you seen this. USCIS posted Approval and Denials Statistics for I-140 EB1 & EB2 category from 2005 thru 2010.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[mygctracker]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------

[veni001]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------

Looks like this is sampling data than actual data?

[Gclongwait]

Looks like it's only dealing with the "exceptional ability" sub category in the case of EB2. Most people may be under the "advanced degree" subcategory...

[qesehmk]

I'm confused, why are the approval numbers so low esp 2007 & 2008 ? Gurus can you please help me understand these numbers.

----------------------------
YEAR APR DCN %A %D
----------------------------
2005 5,042 340 94% 6%
2006 2,991 146 95% 5%
2007 2,459 283 90% 10%
2008 2,148 172 93% 7%
2009 3,893 300 93% 7%
2010 3,140 306 91% 9%
----------------------------


Looks like it's only dealing with the "exceptional ability" sub category in the case of EB2. Most people may be under the "advanced degree" subcategory...

you are right GCL. EB2 data given is only as it relates to the "Exceptional Ability".

However, the EB1 data is certainly confusing. Although the website says, the data pertains to all of EB1; it looks like the data only relates to "Extraordinary" EB1 (i.e. pulitzer, oscar or olympic medal etc).

[kd2008]

Well, The catergories are

Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16)
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18)

Professionals holding advanced degrees, new arrivals (E21)
Professionals holding advanced degrees, adjustments (E26)

as per immigration statistics handbook. So its EB1A and EB1B non-AOS cases. I hope that makes sense. Or it may be EB1A and EB1B cases primary applicants only. Who knows!

[gcwait2007]

Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

[Gclongwait]

Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

That's a good question....Would'nt any increase in numbers from 2002 to 2007 be because of porting? Why else would say even 2002 numbers increase from 86 to 98.

[qesehmk]

It looks like that's porting.
Can some one please clarify?

EB2 India for Jan 2007 was 1505 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1540 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.
EB2 India for Feb 2007 was 1431 in the Inventory data dtd 1-oct-2010, while the same was 1444 in the report dtd 5-Jan-2011.

How the figures have increased? Is USCIS include EB3 to EB2 porting cases also?

[gcwait2007]

It looks like that's porting.

As per Ron, porting is never counted. EB3 application will continue to be there and if a EB-2 is recognized with in the cut off date, GC/ visa will be issued, while EB3 application will continue to be pending.

Can some one please clarify? Thanks in advance.

[TeddyKoochu]

As per Ron, porting is never counted. EB3 application will continue to be there and if a EB-2 is recognized with in the cut off date, GC/ visa will be issued, while EB3 application will continue to be pending.

Can some one please clarify? Thanks in advance.

Guys it could also be addition of local office cases.

[kd2008]

USCIS updated that statistics page. Now Table B provides data on the approval and denial for the E-12 classification (Outstanding Professor or Researcher) of the Form I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers.

I hope this helps with EB1 calculations. These numbers are only primary applicants. No dependents.

[zzz666]

It took me few days to go thru the blog....Thanks to all for your contributions.....my PD is Feb 2011 in EB2. I'll probably be a fu*king millionaire before I get the GC in Eb2 n if I become one then please forgive me if I use a couple of numbers in EB5. Just saying.

On a serious note, guys n gals....dont forget -> more than anything else, LIFE is the biggest thing...Enjoy it everyday!!

[gcwait2007]

It took me few days to go thru the blog....Thanks to all for your contributions.....my PD is Feb 2011 in EB2. I'll probably be a fu*king millionaire before I get the GC in Eb2 n if I become one then please forgive me if I use a couple of numbers in EB5. Just saying.

On a serious note, guys n gals....dont forget -> more than anything else, LIFE is the biggest thing...Enjoy it everyday!!

LOL... You have excellent optimism

[gcwait2007]

Folks,

Have you seen this. USCIS posted Approval and Denials Statistics for I-140 EB1 & EB2 category from 2005 thru 2010.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

[qesehmk]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up? (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-2-28/PERM-filings-up-or-are-they.html)

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).


Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

[TeddyKoochu]

Later USCIS clarified that these data are EB1A and EB1B.

These data represent 35% to 40% and rest 60% to 65% used by EB1C.

Yes these tables represent EB1 A & B respectively. The big reason for EB1 A denials is that its a self filed petition and people fro pretty diverse fields do it. EB1 B requires a Phd or super specialization so if you have the qualification you are kind of good to go. A rough breakup out of my gut feeling is EB1-A - 15%, EB1-B - 25% and EB1-C 60%. So EB1-A really is the smallest component. Guys what are your thoughts about EB2 I140 denial percentage, IMHO as I have been saying its probably 20%.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up? (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-2-28/PERM-filings-up-or-are-they.html)

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).

Q a large category of folks who do it are also those who change employers and file labor and I140 again, they can capture their PD if the previous I140 was approved. I don't believe that Eb2-EB3 porting could be that large.

[qesehmk]

Teddy given that EB1-B is tougher than EB2, won't you think EB2s denial % will be less than or equal to EB1-B (i.e. 6-7%)?


Yes these tables represent EB1 A & B respectively. The big reason for EB1 A denials is that its a self filed petition and people fro pretty diverse fields do it. EB1 B requires a Phd or super specialization so if you have the qualification you are kind of good to go. A rough breakup out of my gut feeling is EB1-A - 15%, EB1-B - 25% and EB1-C 60%. So EB1-A really is the smallest component. Guys what are your thoughts about EB2 I140 denial percentage, IMHO as I have been saying its probably 20%.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy given that EB1-B is tougher than EB2, won't you think EB2s denial % will be less than or equal to EB1-B (i.e. 6-7%)?

Q here is the reason why.

- EB1-B people would apply only if they are Phd.
- EB2 is being applied by folks who have a 3 Yr only degree + experience high chance of denial.
- Folks with 3 + 2 or 3 + 1 also face educational evaluation issues.
- 4 Yr degree folks also face issues typically if their branch is no IT and they work in IT.
- Ability to Pay RFE's are more likely for EB2 as companies file more petitions, while EB1-B most companies may file 1 or 2 except for the really big ones.
- People are whole heartedly trying for PD porting and its better to try and get denied than not just try at all, all that is lost is money but all that can be gained is priceless.

[qesehmk]

That's interesting. Good logic. Thanks.

Q here is the reason why.

- EB1-B people would apply only if they are Phd.
- EB2 is being applied by folks who have a 3 Yr only degree + experience high chance of denial.
- Folks with 3 + 2 or 3 + 1 also face educational evaluation issues.
- 4 Yr degree folks also face issues typically if their branch is no IT and they work in IT.
- Ability to Pay RFE's are more likely for EB2 as companies file more petitions, while EB1-B most companies may file 1 or 2 except for the really big ones.
- People are whole heartedly trying for PD porting and its better to try and get denied than not just try at all, all that is lost is money but all that can be gained is priceless.

[veni001]

Thanks GCWait. This is useful info.

Also check this out at Ron Gotcher's website. Are labor filings really up? (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-2-28/PERM-filings-up-or-are-they.html)

I think what he says makes sense. Filings in last few years may be up because of
-----------------A) category porting EB3->2 (which we knew and our model factors that in) and
-----------------B) job porting i.e. AC21. (which we knew but didn't factor in our model.)

So the second piece may create some upside to our model. (may be a couple of months max).

This guy is trying to draw some business, remember he doesn't speak facts all the time.

[veni001]

This may be old post Court case against Infosys accuses it of visa and tax fraud (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/court-case-against-infosys-accuses-it-of-visa-and-tax-fraud/articleshow/7580456.cms)

This could impact not only H1B/L1B but also EB1C filings, going forward.

[qesehmk]

You r right. He is generally quite inflammatory. But in this case he could actually be right.


This guy is trying to draw some business, remember he doesn't speak facts all the time.

[gcwait2007]

What happened to last year's Family Based Visa left overs? Have they not been carried to EB category in this year?

[gcwait2007]

Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.

[qesehmk]

GCW that statement is not even worth 5 seconds of attention. If we give credence to such things ... we are doing disservice to those who come here for objective good information.

p.s. - Don't doubt your good intentions though!

Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.

[gcwait2007]

GCW that statement is not even worth 5 seconds of attention. If we give credence to such things ... we are doing disservice to those who come here for objective good information.

p.s. - Don't doubt your good intentions though!

Sorry for quick posting without adding my comments.

According to Ron, the actual spillover was around 42K last year. However the whole spillover did not go for EB2 India and China backlog clearence/ reduction. While 27K helped to move the date to 08-May-2006 for EB2 India and China, rest 15K went for porting.

According to Ron, one can expect similar spillover this year as well but porting will be cleared. Over a period of time, the porting wave is expected to stop and spillover will be passed to clear the backlog of EB2India and China.

[qesehmk]

Last year there was a surge in PERM approvals which resulted in EB2 ROW to consume significant and yet they did manage to provide visas to EB2 IC. But it is nowhere in teh range what you are quoting below.

This year there will be some after effects of the PERM surge from last year but the ROW approvals will be much less compared to 2010. However since FB spillover is missing this year (almost 10K) ...overall SOFAD will be slighly less or equal to last year.

Ron G's statements and numbers are a gimmick to attrack more EB2->3 cases to his account.


Sorry for quick posting without adding my comments.

According to Ron, the actual spillover was around 42K last year. However the whole spillover did not go for EB2 India and China backlog clearence/ reduction. While 27K helped to move the date to 08-May-2006 for EB2 India and China, rest 15K went for porting.

According to Ron, one can expect similar spillover this year as well but porting will be cleared. Over a period of time, the porting wave is expected to stop and spillover will be passed to clear the backlog of EB2India and China.

[leo07]

I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

Here is the question posed to Ron:

"My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "


Ron has replied to one of the queries as follows-

Re: EB2 will not become current for India/China I have to disagree with that assessment. The number of "spill over" visas from Worldwide EB2 last year was almost equal to the known EB2 India backlog. The reason that the backlog did not go down was because more than 15,000 India EB3 cases with earlier priority dates were upgraded to EB2. That is going to come to an end in the not too distant future. When it does, India EB2 will start moving forward very quickly.

[gcwait2007]

I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

Here is the question posed to Ron:

"My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "

I agree with you completely

[qesehmk]

Agree about context.

By the way I agree with the attorney with a qualifier. I do think that EB2 won't be current anytime soon EXCEPT for a month or two max to create a window to take in additional 485 applications. But other than that exception actually the other attorney is right on money.



I think when we quote somebody, in this case Mr Ron Gotcher, we must also quote the question we posed initially. If not, the quote can develop it's own meaning, much different from the original. I know it's more a oversight on your part but I wanted to bring it up. I'm sure I have done this many times before...so please don't take it personally. I'm no way defending the logic in Ron's answer, I know his answer is flawed.

Here is the question posed to Ron:

"My employer's immigration attorney indicated that EB2 will never become current in the future even if the dates advance by a year to July 2007. According to him it will only advance few months at a time even if visa numbers are available. According to him the powers to make EB2 current rests with the state department and that they would not do it in the future as CIS opposes making EB2 current.

This is the first time I heard this version. Is this correct ? "

[pch053]

Based on Ron's comments, 15K EB3-I cases were ported to EB2 category. Does this estimate look correct? I think EB3->EB2 porting was much lower than this number last year; else, we would have observed the number of pending EB2 cases shrinking in a similar proportion. Or, maybe I am mis-interpreting Ron's statement.

[gcwait2007]

Based on Ron's comments, 15K EB3-I cases were ported to EB2 category. Does this estimate look correct? I think EB3->EB2 porting was much lower than this number last year; else, we would have observed the number of pending EB2 cases shrinking in a similar proportion. Or, maybe I am mis-interpreting Ron's statement.

Ron has over estimated the porting cases by 5 times.

[Gclongwait]

Ron has over estimated the porting cases by 5 times.
I agree. If there was such high porting, the dates would have retrogessed to way behind. My understanding of the bulletin date is that the last date that can get a visa is where it is set. If porting was 15K then many people from for eg 2004, 2003 or for that matter any date who are porting also could not have gotten visas therefore the dates would have retrogessed. I think most gurus here by now agree that porting is just enough to use the 2.7K visas a year.

Ofcourse the one thing that may be happening is most porting is from dates after 8th May 06 which anyway is not current. My gut instinct is that more porting may be happening on PD after July 07 since before that people already have EAD and AP which gives them freedom from employer, freedom from visa stamping and freedom from the 2 month sword hanging on your head if you lose your job.

Wonder what gurus say about this?

[Spectator]

Earlier in the thread, there was a conversation about the ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications in the PERM data.

There were differing opinions, but mainly these were based on gut feel. There was also a discussion about using Salary level and Wage Level to further refine the data.

Recently DOL have published data on Prevailing Wage Determination (PWD) requests for both FY2010 and Q1 FY2011 http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)

This data includes the minimum educational and experience requirements, which could be very useful for determining EB2 vs. EB3.

The analyzed data is presented below. I was quite aggressive in pruning the Other category when determining which Preference Category the job was likely to fall under, although it doesn’t form a huge % of the data set.

PWD Requests FY2010

Category -- No. ------ %

EB2 ------ 33,404 -- 65.84%
EB3 ------ 17,332 -- 34.16%

Total ---- 50,736 - 100.00%

Min Education --------- No. ----- %

Bachelors + 5 -------- 9,916 -- 29.69%
Masters ------------- 18,904 -- 56.59%
PhD ------------------ 2,169 --- 6.49%
Other (JD, MD etc) --- 2,415 --- 7.23%

Total --------------- 33,404 - 100.00%

Obvious non EB2 removed from Other

The data for FY2010 is not the complete picture, since is only covers the period from Jan 20, 2010 to 30 Sep, 2010. Pro-rated for the entire year would give a total of c.73k.
(2)Disclosure data includes prevailing wage determinations issued from the OFLC iCERT Visa Portal System between January 20 and September 30, 2010 when employers began electronic filing of requests for prevailing wage determinations.
(3)Prior to January 1, 2010, all prevailing wage determinations were received and processed by State Workforce Agencies. No national level electronic record data are available.


PWD Requests Q1 FY2011

Category -- No. ------ %

EB2 ------ 16,309 -- 68.94%
EB3 ------- 7,348 -- 31.06%

Total ---- 23,657 - 100.00%


Min Education --------- No. ----- %

Bachelors + 5 -------- 4,679 -- 28.69%
Masters -------------- 9,828 -- 60.26%
PhD -------------------- 992 --- 6.08%
Other (JD, MD etc) ----- 810 --- 4.97%

Total --------------- 16,309 - 100.00%

Obvious non EB2 removed from Other


The % splits have remained fairly consistent.

Unfortunately, Country data is not provided in the PWD data. I don’t think it would be an unfair assumption, given the Cut Off Dates, to suppose that the % of EB2 applications for India would be higher than shown and that ROW would be lower.

Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.

Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.

[qesehmk]

Spec, good to see you back. Your information makes perfect sense to me. As EB3 has become a black tunnel, it would be natural we would see increased appetite for EB2. For ROW, 50-50 split makes sense. It is supported by trackitt data.


Earlier in the thread, there was a conversation about the ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications in the PERM data.

Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.

Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.

[gcwait2007]

Spec, good to see you back. Your information makes perfect sense to me. As EB3 has become a black tunnel, it would be natural we would see increased appetite for EB2. For ROW, 50-50 split makes sense. It is supported by trackitt data.

Does it make any change in EB2 forward predictions? Thanks.

[qesehmk]

Probably not. I think I was using the same assumptions. However the denial rates data that somebody published a few pages back probably helps us by a month or two.

p.s. I think I have used 50-50 ratio between ROW and IC as well as between EB2-3.


Does it make any change in EB2 forward predictions? Thanks.

[veni001]

.....
.........
........
Overall, that leads me to think that, for ROW, a 50:50 split for EB2:EB3 might be be a reasonable working assumption to make.[/SIZE][/FONT]

Beyond that, I don’t want to make any further inferences.

Spec,
Welcome back, good analysis.

Also (%) of the porting cases from the PERM data is unknown.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec,
Welcome back, good analysis.

Also (%) of the porting cases from the PERM data is unknown.

+ 1, Spec welcome back as always very thorough, highly detailed and great analysis from you.

[TeluguBidda]

+ 1, Spec welcome back as always very thorough, highly detailed and great analysis from you.

+2, liked his approach, liked his candid expression

[MorningSun]

"...probably helps us by a month or two."

Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.

[qesehmk]

The month or two would be on top of the "Copyrighted" (LoL) prediction in the header :-)

On another note .... did you guys see the immigration related news items last couple of days? Looks like 2011 there could be another push for immigration reform. The timing will be crucial. It has to happen in 2011 or max early in 2012. They can't afford to do it close to elections.


"...probably helps us by a month or two."

Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.

[nayekal]

Guys,
I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

* In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. However, some leaders in both Houses in the Hill have been inspired by his speech, and slowly but cautiously bring forward this legislation into the front. Report indicates that Rep. Zoe Lofgren, the current Ranking member of House Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee and the former chairwoman of the same Subcommitte until the end of 2010 has prepared and will introduce a bill which will propose certain high level of foreign workers to obtain permanent resident status and allow them to bypass annual numerical limitation and the labor certification process. There are already two bills in the House to call for the House to reform the employment-based immigration at the level, one by Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona and the other by Rep. Isaa of California. Interestingly, Senior Senator Orin Hatch of Utah who used to support CIR but lately turned into an anti-CIR senator facing reelection in November 2012 lately urged the Obama Administration to expand H-1B visa numbers and to do something about foreign brain immigration. The CIR that includes legalization of undocumented aliens still remains in the bolt for fear of potential backfires during the November 2012 election season, particularly in the current state of the nation struggling with the high unemployment rate, but the issue of importance of retaining high level of foreign brains within the U.S. has been facing less challenges, particularly from the viewpoint of controlling oursourcing of American businesses and the pressures from business leaders and academic community. Last week, the CEO of 3M Company in Minnesota brought this issue into the front by accusing the Obama Administration for failing to take a leadership on immigration reform to retain and attract top foreign brains and the company's threat to take more manufacturing & R&D businesses out to the certain Asian countries. This CEO eventually had to face a huge uproar from certain segment of the society, but it represented the impatience of the business community with the Obama Administration's failure to take a leadership in the reform of employment-based immigration system. As the nation's economy improves further, such pressure is likely to rise and expand. Something to watch closely.

Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

Thanks

[zenmaster]

Guys,
I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

* In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. ........

Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

Thanks
Hi nayekal,

As you already know, no one knows what is going to happen. Albeit, there is always a chance of something to happen. It is more of politics than the 'NEED' to do something about Immigration.
Let all hope that some legislation passes soon or atleast doors open for all for a month or two so that we are relieved from the H1B troubles.

Good Luck to all !

[nuvikas]

I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

[qesehmk]

nuvikas

my understanding is that TSC is more electronic while NSC (not NBC!) is more manual and handles exceptions.

They probably transferred your case for some sort of exception/due diligence. Looks like that has now cleared and your case is all set and back in TSC where it will finally receive a visa number in next 4-5 months.



I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

[Spectator]

I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?nuvikas,

That is entirely to be expected. The National Benefits Center (NBC) handles the routing of cases for local Field Office interview.

In line with this memo http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/regressed-visa-12-15-10.pdf all Employment Based retrogressed cases preadjudicated at Field Offices are being transferred to Texas Service Center (TSC).

This allows them to be counted and included in the quarterly USCIS Inventory Reports.

When you become Current, TSC will handle final adjudication and approval.

[PD1006]

Spec, so, how does one find out where the case is? I know my case was filed in TSC.

Thanks

[nuvikas]

Thanks again. You guys are wonderful for having quoted the actual memorandum.

[kd2008]

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

[zzz666]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html

Sorry...kd2008 beat me by 1 min

[gcwait2007]

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month :(

[shaumack]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.



For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month :(

[qesehmk]

Shaumack ... very interesting post. Thanks.



I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

[Gclongwait]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

[pch053]

I don't think EB3 folks with PDs between 2006 - July 2007 who are porting to EB2 will need to refile their I485. Of course, some of them might have missed the boat during July - Aug 2007 time and they need to file their new I485 but that also applies to EB2 folks (i.e. who directly applied in EB2 to begin with) also.

I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years. This doesn't account for people who might have missed filing during July - Aug'07 and I don't know what will be a reasonable number for the same.

Just my thoughts, not sure whether there is a flaw in my reasoning. Thanks!

[kera.sam]

We also need to figure a way to estimate the new I485 applications being filed for the dependents once they successfully port from EB3 to EB2. Imagine an EB3 2005 getting married in October 2007. Once the EB3 to EB2 conversion is complete, the primary applicant will add the dependents which will account for additional visa numbers. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not sure if there is way at all to calculate this number other than getting it from the inventory report.

[quizzer]

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

Based on the latest demand data, will there be any change to the predicted/calculated Jul-Sep 2011 PD for EB2I? Nov 2006 - Mar 2007?

[veni001]

.....
.......
.......

My $0.002 cents on this.

It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.

[veni001]

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

Same I-485 will be used, one can not have two I-485 applications pending at the same time.

[shaumack]

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I believe most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

Sorry for not being attentive. I was rushing through this during my lunch break. As veni mentioned you cannot have more than one I-485 pending at a time. The whole point is that most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now. They will eventually be as dates would progress to late 2006 or early 2007 after FY 2011. This will bring in whole new lot that will continue chewing up visa numbers.


I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years.

Since we know that EB3-I is gonna be a black hole, I will not be surprised that in coming years more and more EB3s with PD between 2002 - 2005 would find different ways to qualify them to port from EB3 to EB2 either by a) changing jobs that would qualify them to EB2 b) persuading their current employers to upgrade their case to EB2 or c) attaining higher education and then changing jobs. With fleeting time more n more people are becoming aware that EB3 to EB2 porting is the ONLY way to get out of this mess and there is no point in hanging on to their current EB3 jobs. So we will continuously see porting happening with folks with PD between 2002-2005 in addition to those who will port from ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 as you mentioned. So porting number will keep on rising and would never plateau.


It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.
Lol ..tru that .. I was rushing … but as long as it adds to the discussion it is all good. :o

[pch053]

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

[veni001]

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

Mostly depend on where do we stand by October 2011 and also FY2011/2012 PERM certifications.

[qesehmk]

.... most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now.

Have you calculated how much true porting might be today. (where true means not just the ones that are eating into SOFAD this year but also the ones are being ported but the date is not current yet). We know the answer about SOFAD piece (likely that is 3-4K). The question is what is the other piece and is it significant.



On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.


I think its quite possible to reach Aug 07 by Sep 12. Almost a certainty. If the date reaches nov-dec 06 this year. That leaves hardly 14-15K for 2007. So everything else being constant if porting rises to 5-6-7K ... should still be more than enough to make Aug 07 current by Sep 12.

p.s. - I didn't comment on Demand data since there was nothing new / unexpected there.

[bieber]

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

[veni001]

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

[veni001]

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5368.html
No change for EB2I

[qesehmk]

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5368.html
No change for EB2

[veni001]

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

[qesehmk]

Look at the EB3I 3 weeks movement. That's very interesting.

If 3 weeks on 6 months is equivalent to "X" 485 cases then for full year that would be 2X 485 cases (given that spillover is absent).

I would roughly imagine that is about 4-5K. Of that 4-5K on a full year 2.8K is attributable to quota. So it tells us that EB3I->EB2I porting isn't a big issue. Right?



That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

[pch053]

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

[qesehmk]

That is the difference between DoS demand data and USCIS 485 inventory. DoS demand does include CP demand (to the extent the case is ready to assign a visa).

And yes its DoS that moves the dates based on demand data. They DO NOT look at USCIS 485 inventory.


In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

[bieber]

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

very true veni

[veni001]

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

Pch053,
Yes, they do but CP number is not significant for EB2I/C or even ROW, Spec posted CP calculations (post#509) in this thread.
3.72% for EB1(all countries, total 1971 cases in Fy 2010)
0.74% for EB2I(102 cases in FY 2010)
1.18% for EB2C( only 70 cases in FY 2010)
3.11% for EB2ROW(1,167 for Fy 2010)

CP percentage is high for EB3( overall 16% ) , i believe mainly due to 245(i) cases.

[pch053]

Thanks veni and qesehmk for the answers; it surely helped clarify my doubts!

[hoping4thebest]

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

[qesehmk]

I think fundamentally what drives EB2IC ( or 3 for that matter ) backlog is the fact that there are only 2800 visas available under per country quota whereas the demand for EB2I is probably around 18-25K. During recessions such as now the demand is less.

So EB2I is left at the mercy of other categories to utilize less and provide SOFAD. The other categories themselves have volatile demand which gets complicated by USCIS' processing delays and surges. That's why predicting EB2IC movement becomes tricky.

Hope it answers your question.



Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

[veni001]

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

Hoping4thebest,
Let me throw few pointers here... now we know that USCIS/DOS won't apply SOFAD until Q4 so with regular 7% per country limit, VISA availability per month per category is about 233 or 700 per quarter.
October 2010 EBi485 inventory data show about 1700 EB2I pending applications before May 2006.

We know that porting is common phenomena( more or less), there are about 45K EB3I before May 2006. Let's apply what ever be the factor you like 4%, 6% or 10% once we apply this we know that EB2I demand will be more than the supply and no chance for any forward movement unless SOFAD applied.

On the contrary EB2C got less than 700 with PD before June 2006 as of 10/01/2010 and only 2,750 EB3C with PD before June 2006.

Thre is lot of talk on reduced EB1C demand this year, but i would wait couple more months and see if DOS is going to throw any prediction for the rest of the year.

[leo07]

This Prez can't even solve the budget issue, forget Libya,Japan,Energy & Immigration.
There is not a statement ore rebuttal or anything about the Utah policy. ( which I think is good)

More seriously, did anyone find the latest inventory data? I think it's due this month, right?

[Spectator]

More seriously, did anyone find the latest inventory data? I think it's due this month, right?
Leo,

I think it will be a further month.

The Inventories now seem to be aligned to USCIS Quarters and the last one was as of 5th January 2011. The PDF was created on 01/11/2001.

I think we can probably expect the next Inventory in early April, after Q2 has finished at the end of March.

[leo07]

yup, I think they are trying to align with quarters now.
Looking at the last march, it appeared that it's due now:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

who knows CIS:)

[gcseeker]

Veni

I will have to differ with you on this one.

Q

I too strongly beleive this bill will get passed. It is a fairly harmless bill on the surface and it does not harm the politcal capital of either party and actually plays into the pet theme of the republican party . It is high time the US immigration sytem should be reformed but outright or major reforms will not take place this year or the next . Next year is an election year and with unemployment rate close to 20% people just do not want to hear any politician campaign on letting in more people legal or not ( It is a different story that tech has an unemployment rate of only 5% compared to unemployment rate for manufacturing jobs ...not relevant to this discussion ) .

Anybody who has studied modern american history will know America had encouraged open immigration for a long time during the 1930's,1940's and 1950's untill the anti immigration lobby managed to shut it down permanently for a few decades. The technological boom of the 70's and demand for cheap technical labour opened the flood gates again. H1B's will always be perceived as the people taking away their jobs due to these images being firmly planted in their subconscious and the power's to be also manage to divert the public's attention .

Long story short.

Bill has a good chance of passing. I would not expect any other bill ( MS-Green card, Scrapping Visa lottery,Not counting family members etc etc ) to pass anytime soon in the next couple of years. If this bill passes it would reduce the spillover from EB5.






Sorry ... have been out of pocket for quite a while. Hence the delay ...

This bill seems fairly innocuous and may actually get passed. But this does nothing for 99% of those in queue. A good one though as people like Sanjay Mavinkurve (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CB8QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2009%2F04%2F12% 2Fbusiness%2F12immig.html&ei=0WiDTeXiKYb2tgPBzJHwAQ&usg=AFQjCNGye15lbN2GlltMiSjMPQopLWHyaA&sig2=zmjYQiZfXwynuMcCZ1IJ6A) wouldn't have to leave.

[angryclubs]

P.S : I do not want to offend anyone but I am glad that Bangladesh lost this morning. Some relieve for Indian fans. Though it was unlikely that we would not have qualified, but I hate seeing us struggling everytime to qualify for next round. Let's see who will we play. I would prefer NZ but how things are going with AUS vs PAK, we might end up playing Australia. If we lose to WI than SL. Fingers crossed. Hopefully we can atleast win WC for Sachin.:)

I would as much like to see Sachin get injured and India win the world cup without him. Granted he is exceptional, but this BS about winning the WC for one individual is too much to digest. India is much bigger than one 5ft guy.

[shaumack]

I would as much like to see Sachin get injured and India win the world cup without him. Granted he is exceptional, but this BS about winning the WC for one individual is too much to digest. India is much bigger than one 5ft guy.

I would argue otherwise but this is not the right forum for this. But if you and most of the other fellow countrymen really doesn't care about his contribution and take pride in his achievements, and really hope he gets injured and we win WC w/o him, then I really feel sorry for Sachin that he was born in this nation and has to play for this country. Peace out!!!

[gcwait2007]

I have updated the thread with March and April 2011 figures.



Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 565 4978
Aug-06 1677 693 7348
Sep-06 1745 773 9866
Oct-06 1747 732 12345
Nov-06 1737 667 14749
Dec-06 1881 770 17400

Jan-07 1540 654 19594
Feb-07 1444 615 21653


Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

*Using 140,00 total EB visas -

EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 558 6648
Sep-06 1745 773 9166
Oct-06 1747 732 11645
Nov-06 1737 667 14049
Dec-06 1881 770 16700

Jan-07 1540 654 18894
Feb-07 1444 615 20953

With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 0 6090
Sep-06 1745 631 8466
Oct-06 1747 732 10945
Nov-06 1737 667 13349
Dec-06 1881 770 16000

Jan-07 1540 654 18194
Feb-07 1444 615 20253

I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.

[nayekal]

Thanks GCwait2007 for a good write up.

It is so easy for a beginner like me to understand the current situation and I am sure every one agrees on that since it doesn't contradict the present situation and the assumptions or dependencies used are way too straight forward.

I hope, you will update it as and when necessary just like the way qesehmk and others are doing.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks gcwait2007 for the calculations, looks great. I believe as you say Feb - Apr 2007 is a good possibility.

[TexDBoy]

Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh :)

[qesehmk]

GCW

Thanks. Nice work. If you want please provide me this with a gist and I can update the header with your paragraph (w credits to you!).

Your date calculation however seems quite off. In my opinion, to reach Mar 07 (or clear it) the visas available should be 26K or more. I think its the DoS data that you are looking at which is making the forecast a bit optimistic. Good one though! Didn't mean to criticize.


I have updated the thread with March and April 2011 figures.


Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh :)

Keep the fingers crossed (except during finger printing)!! Good luck.

[Gclongwait]

Thanks gcwait2007 for the calculations, looks great. I believe as you say Feb - Apr 2007 is a good possibility.

I hope you guys are right. I think reaching mid march would be really good movement (not that I am anywhere near that). Less than that would be quite disappointing. EB1 holds the key. Lets see, less than 3 mnths remaining for the July bulletin.

[Spectator]

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.

An interesting calculation and good work. It is true that the Demand Data figures give more optimistic movements than the USCIS Inventory.

As I read it, Spillover is just that and the normal allocation must be added to obtain SOFAD, so 16k to reach the end of December 2006 equals 21.6k SOFAD.

I agree with Q that the figures might be a little optimistic.

a) Although it doesn't alter the final figure, the INA allows the VO to allocate up to 27% of Visas in each of the first 3 quarters. This is 757 per quarter, or around 250 per month.

b) A greater concern to me is the assumption that VO will use that number as a maximum they can allocate.

All the evidence says that the VO consistently ignore this number. They can do this because they also take into account historical patterns and any other information they have. If the VO is reasonably certain that EB2-IC will receive some Spillover, they will take that into account.

Say for example they are sure that at least 5k spare visas will be available, then the 27% per quarter could be based on 5,000 + 2,803, giving a monthly allotment of c. 700 Visas per month.

If Demand is less than that, then there is no need to retrogress Cut Off Dates, even if Demand is greater than 250 Visas per month.

In fact, if Trackitt ratios for EB2-I are the same in FY2011 as they were in FY2010, then EB2-I has already consumed around 2.3k Visas, rather than around the 1.4k you are assuming.

At the end of the year, if EB2-I had consumed say 5k, then it would need 5k - 2.8k + 16k = 18.2k Spillover (or 23.8k SOFAD) to reach the end of December 2006.

That, to me, is the conundrum - how many Visas have been and are going to be allocated to EB2-I that are "invisible" to the Demand Data.

[kd2008]

Guys check out these numbers:

66

About 8000 cases from district offices, I think.

[gcwait2007]

Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh :)


Keep the fingers crossed (except during finger printing)!! Good luck.

I know a case EB2 India with PD of Jan 2007 has been approved recently out of turn. So as Q mentioned 'keep the fingers crossed'.

[Spectator]

Guys check out these numbers:

About 8000 cases from district offices, I think.
kd,

Unfortunately, the picture is too small for me too read.

The Jan USCIS dashboard figures came out on Monday.

The "Pre adjudicated, awaiting a visa number" figure for TSC I-485 jumped from 65,980 in December 2010 to 76,156 in January 2011. That is an increase of 10,176.

If you consider it normally decreases by about 700, then the LO cases appear to be nearer 11k.

Somebody on Trackitt went through all the LO data in the Dashboard. In November 2010 there were 20,756 pre-adjudicated cases at LO. That had dropped to 18,259 in December 2010, but they remarked that some might already have been transferred by that time as a result of the memo. In January 2011, the figure has dropped to 2,131 as would be expected due to their transfer to TSC.

It isn't clear whether USCIS have caught up with entering the transfers from LO into the Inventory system. I guess future dashboard figures and Inventories will tell the tale.

[kd2008]

Spectator,

Thanks for your info. Sorry about the picture. You can visit http://immigration-law.com/Canada.html and scroll down for figures. Just search 03/21/2011: January 2011 Updated on the page.

[qesehmk]

Spec / KD

Most of this transfer should really be FB or EB3. When it comes to EB the LO cases woudl be most likely prior to 2007.

EB2IC dates are already into mid 2006. And its hard to believe that LOs would have large amount of EB2IC cases.

So in nutshell this move will not be impactful to EB2IC dates movement.



kd,

Unfortunately, the picture is too small for me too read.

The Jan USCIS dashboard figures came out on Monday.

The "Pre adjudicated, awaiting a visa number" figure for TSC I-485 jumped from 65,980 in December 2010 to 76,156 in January 2011. That is an increase of 10,176.

If you consider it normally decreases by about 700, then the LO cases appear to be nearer 11k.

Somebody on Trackitt went through all the LO data in the Dashboard. In November 2010 there were 20,756 pre-adjudicated cases at LO. That had dropped to 18,259 in December 2010, but they remarked that some might already have been transferred by that time as a result of the memo. In January 2011, the figure has dropped to 2,131 as would be expected due to their transfer to TSC.

It isn't clear whether USCIS have caught up with entering the transfers from LO into the Inventory system. I guess future dashboard figures and Inventories will tell the tale.

[viypr07]

I know a case EB2 India with PD of Jan 2007 has been approved recently out of turn. So as Q mentioned 'keep the fingers crossed'.

I have also been sent a biometrics notice(third time)eb2 india PD jan 07. My lawyer says they have a expiry of 15 months so they send notice after that time period.

[Spectator]

Spec / KD

Most of this transfer should really be FB or EB3. When it comes to EB the LO cases woudl be most likely prior to 2007.

EB2IC dates are already into mid 2006. And its hard to believe that LOs would have large amount of EB2IC cases.

So in nutshell this move will not be impactful to EB2IC dates movement.Q

Totally agree with your point about EB2. Remarkably little appeared to be EB2 in the Jan Inventory. The largest numbers transferred to TSC belonged to EB3-ROW and were pre 2006.

I think the vast majority are EB rather than FB, on the basis that the figures (for June 2010, if memory serves me correctly) agree very well with the 23k EB cases at LO mentioned by the Ombudsman in the 2010 Report. Of course, that may be mere coincidence.

[qesehmk]

Spec

They should employ you at USCIS!! You really bring real new relevant information to the table. Thanks.


Q

Totally agree with your point about EB2. Remarkably little appeared to be EB2 in the Jan Inventory. The largest numbers transferred to TSC belonged to EB3-ROW and were pre 2006.

I think the vast majority are EB rather than FB, on the basis that the figures (for June 2010, if memory serves me correctly) agree very well with the 23k EB cases at LO mentioned by the Ombudsman in the 2010 Report. Of course, that may be mere coincidence.

[TeddyKoochu]

Source: The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)

03/09/2011: May 2011 EB-2 Cut-Off Date Substantial Move-Ahead Predicted

AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. Very good news from AILA and Mr. Oppenheim.

[TeddyKoochu]

I noticed that I140 approval times are 8 months now (Except for premium) this will slow down the EB2 ROW & EB1 approvals and will increase SOFAD for this year, most folks who port file in premium.

[arorasa]

Thanks for that update Teddy. Looking forward to the May bulletin now. Anyone with access to the AILA website to get some details ? http://aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx

[Spectator]

Source: The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)

03/09/2011: May 2011 EB-2 Cut-Off Date Substantial Move-Ahead Predicted

AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. Very good news from AILA and Mr. Oppenheim.This is a very interesting development and suggests Trackitt data was correct. It's great to finally get the corroborative evidence we badly needed.

There is better information from Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/

He seems to be quoting what Charles Oppenheim said:

EB2 visa availability

The American Immigration Lawyers Association reports that Charlie Oppenheim provided them with the following information:


“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

It appears that the surge in EB1 filings started to tail off around October 1st. Presumably, this means that those who wanted to upgrade from EB2 to EB1 have now filed their petitions.

The May VB is going to be VERY interesting!

[alex99]

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

[TeddyKoochu]

This is a very interesting development and suggests Trackitt data was correct. It's great to finally get the corroborative evidence we badly needed.

There is better information from Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/

He seems to be quoting what Charles Oppenheim said:

The May VB is going to be VERY interesting!

Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.

[Spectator]

Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.Teddy,

I read it slightly differently. The phrase:

Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category.
implies to me that it would be 12k total.

A quick look at my model implies a movement to anything from Feb 2007 to towards the end of April 2007, depending on whether you use USCIS Inventory or DOS Demand figures. A greater movement in Cut Off Dates also implies greater "effective" Porting numbers, so I have raised my assumed amount from 4k to 6k to account for that.

I look forward to the discussion that I am sure will follow this announcement.

[bieber]

It looks like 12k EB1 numbers are from Q1 and Q2 only, atleast half of that should be available from Q3 and Q4

half yearly spill over finally

[nuvikas]

Copied from immigrationvoice.org posting by EB2-buddy

A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Snippet from Chinese immigration Website abt this news
If you remember, this was the site which published the Bulletin sometime back while uscis delayed it and all of us were breaking our heads to predict the cut-off dates
==================
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Friday, 25 March 2011 08:29 Jan Pederson

The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year

[gcwait2007]

GCW

Thanks. Nice work. If you want please provide me this with a gist and I can update the header with your paragraph (w credits to you!).

Your date calculation however seems quite off. In my opinion, to reach Mar 07 (or clear it) the visas available should be 26K or more. I think its the DoS data that you are looking at which is making the forecast a bit optimistic. Good one though! Didn't mean to criticize.

Hi Q,

Thanks for the offer. I was traveling abroad and had to focus on the consulting issues I was working for.

Against my name GCW07, you can mention the range of 20K to 24K (long range) and average at 22K. I believe that the cut off date would get into 2007 and ranging between Feb to April 2007.

[gcwait2007]

Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.

If DOS is going to use 12K spillover (from EB1 to EB2) tp clear EB2 India China backlog, then in May VB, we can expect the cut off date to move between Sep 06 to Oct 06.

[qesehmk]

First of all Teddy and others a big thanks. This is a great news and creditable.

As you have already pointed out the big question is "are teh numbers TOTAL or are they coming purely from EB1". The naswer tothis question determines how long the dates will move ...

If the numbers are in total then that is not hugely exciting ... since we already factored in almost 9K of teh 12k in our model.
On the otherhand nuvikas's information says they are not only purely EB1 but they are semi-annual ... indicating the numbers are really 24K incremental when extrapolated to full year.

If true that would mean the dates move in Jan 2009 or become totally current for a while.

So where is the reality? I guess I don't know. But if we take the middle path - I would assume (for now until better data emerges) that 12K is full year incremental to our model.

This means the dates will by Sep 11 move beyond Jul 2007 for EB2IC.



Copied from immigrationvoice.org posting by EB2-buddy

A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Snippet from Chinese immigration Website abt this news
If you remember, this was the site which published the Bulletin sometime back while uscis delayed it and all of us were breaking our heads to predict the cut-off dates
==================
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Friday, 25 March 2011 08:29 Jan Pederson

The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year


Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.


Teddy,

I read it slightly differently. The phrase:

implies to me that it would be 12k total.

A quick look at my model implies a movement to anything from Feb 2007 to towards the end of April 2007, depending on whether you use USCIS Inventory or DOS Demand figures. A greater movement in Cut Off Dates also implies greater "effective" Porting numbers, so I have raised my assumed amount from 4k to 6k to account for that.

I look forward to the discussion that I am sure will follow this announcement.

[Spectator]

Q,

I think you have summed it up very nicely.

The way I parse the statement is:

Based on the USCIS statement that there has been a decline in filings and that they do not expect a change in the number use pattern (for the rest of the year), then at least 12k additional numbers will be available to EB2.

We all know that Charles Oppenheim is quite conservative, so the fact he say "at least" is significant to me. That represents a minimum, which he is probably lowballing to give some wiggle room if the situation changes.

In fact, I would expect it to be more than that based on the current run rate in Trackitt.

Based on all EB1 then they would reach 20k total approvals if the current rate continues.

Based on EB1-India approvals alone, then all of EB1 might reach 24k total approvals if nothing changes.

That is more like a potential 16-20k total spare visas.

I can't quite reconcile how any pending backlog of applications to adjudicate is going to affect that. Not at all if the adjudication time remains long, I guess.

Maybe it is just my conservative nature speaking and I might be in a minority of one. I don't have a problem with that, since the wording is rather vague.

Let's hope for a better expression of the facts. I would guess CO will add a comment into the May VB about this situation.

[qesehmk]

Q,


.....

I can't quite reconcile how any pending backlog of applications to adjudicate is going to affect that. Not at all if the adjudication time remains long, I guess.
.....

Maybe it is just my conservative nature speaking and I might be in a minority of one.
......



Conservative is good since by nature most of us are optimists! So its better to be conservative when trying to predict something.

Since there are so many preadjudicated cases I would imagine they shouldn't have difficulty using the excess visas in EB2 itself. Otherwise EB3IC will be so happy to use some of these anyway!

In either case, it seems people past July 2007 have a good chance to file... at least a year ahead from that date. My opinion is that if teh date is going to go to Jul 2007 anyway then DoS will make it "Current-Current" and open the flood gates for a month and then everybody gets in and again a long wait starts!

However don't expect teh gates to open before Jun 2011.

[Osaka001]

http://www.usvisainfo.com/news-mainmenu-31/225-a-sliver-of-hope-eb-2-visa-number-movement.html
"The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."

If the demand for EB1 in First Half is 10k-11k (50% of last year) and same trend is predicted for rest of year, Can we expect spill over 20K+ from EB1 alone to EB2, Am I missing some thing here?, If yes this is a great news for EB2 IC.

[srinivasj]

http://www.usvisainfo.com/news-mainmenu-31/225-a-sliver-of-hope-eb-2-visa-number-movement.html
"The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."

If the demand for EB1 in First Half is 10k-11k (50% of last year) and same trend is predicted for rest of year, Can we expect spill over 20K+ from EB1 alone to EB2, Am I missing some thing here?, If yes this is a great news for EB2 IC.

why so much excitement for just one week movement..could that be a typo..?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I read it slightly differently. The phrase:

implies to me that it would be 12k total.

A quick look at my model implies a movement to anything from Feb 2007 to towards the end of April 2007, depending on whether you use USCIS Inventory or DOS Demand figures. A greater movement in Cut Off Dates also implies greater "effective" Porting numbers, so I have raised my assumed amount from 4k to 6k to account for that.

I look forward to the discussion that I am sure will follow this announcement.

Spec I believe that that they are saying 12K is available as of now. So if we empirically calculate SOFAD it would be 12K + 12K coming similarly similarly in the second half + ~ 6K this would make it 30K. They would not be projecting for the remainder of the 6 months now IMHO they have come to the concludion that atleast 12K is available for immediate allocation I could be completely wrong on this. Iam going by the worst case scenario that this 12K is total it may well be just EB1. lets all hope for the very best.

[Osaka001]

The excitement is not for One week movement, it is about 12K unused visas for EB1 in the H1, the trend is expected to continue..If it is true, I am excited , don't know about others :-)

[qesehmk]

Any movement attributable to SPILLOVER / out-of-category-SOFAD has to be bigger than 1 week.
So if the movement is going to be 1 week then it will indicate that spillover or out-of-category-sofad will not have taken place yet.


The excitement is not for One week movement, it is about 12K unused visas for EB1 in the H1, the trend is expected to continue..If it is true, I am excited , don't know about others :-)

[nayekal]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/
Quote Originally Posted by pod1 View Post
Ron,

Thanks for the information. Does it mean the May bulletin which comes in April can have 3-4 months movement in PD cutoff date for EB2-I?

Ron's Answer:
My guess is that you may see a jump of up to one year. It will definitely advance several months. How far beyond that is anyone's guess, but a 2007 cutoff date would not surprise me at all. We are right now combing through our cases to identify and prep everyone with India EB2 priority dates earlier than mid-2007.

[zenmaster]

I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D

[Gclongwait]

Wow, this is really good news if it actually holds.

Any chances of them just making it Current to accept more applications, since with these extra 12000 (6 mnths) and approx 20000 (for the whole year) from EB1 we should definitely be able to cross July 07.

[gcseeker]

Lol your comment made me laugh out loud.Good analogy (wink ) . Anywaz I do hope as well they move substantially.

If in the scenario they do move ,what would be an educated guess for these questions.

1.Will the dates be stuck at July 2007 wall for a long time.
2.I am assuming porting will increase with the movement of dates ( 6K number seems reasonable but more and more EB3 folks might be convinced it is better to port with the movement )
3.For people with dates in the timeframe July 2007-Dec 2007 would it take more than 2 yrs to see a few months movement ?

:( Personally I do not beleive they can make it current given the criticism they got during the 2007 fiasco.

Thanks again



I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D

[yank]

Q,

You always said EB1 is a big variable. It seems now (per AILA) there is going to be mid yr spillover before the Jul spillover.

Regards,
Yank

[pch053]

If EB1 visa usage has decreased by 50%, then we might expect the PDs for EB2-I/C to move into early 2007 during Sep'11, right? I will be happy if Ron's forecast comes true but in the past I have seen his comments to be a bit too strong and have been way off from what really happened. Hope he is proven correct this time!

[qesehmk]

If EB1 visa usage has decreased by 50%, then we might expect the PDs for EB2-I/C to move into early 2007 during Sep'11, right? I will be happy if Ron's forecast comes true but in the past I have seen his comments to be a bit too strong and have been way off from what really happened. Hope he is proven correct this time!


Wow, this is really good news if it actually holds.

Any chances of them just making it Current to accept more applications, since with these extra 12000 (6 mnths) and approx 20000 (for the whole year) from EB1 we should definitely be able to cross July 07.

There are two versions at least... 50% demand reduction and 12K full year FD and actually a third one that say 24K full year FD.

If 50% EB1 reduction is true it will blow past Jul 2007. Because tehn teh SOFAD becomes 8K(EB5)+20K(eb1)+9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC)-3K (Porting) = 40K. It will almost certainly make teh dates current. "WHEN" is a bit of a question of policy. The way it will work is .... if the policy is to allow FD to EB3 then the dates will be made current close to Sep 2011. Otherwise if the polciy is to use SOFAD in EB2 itself for 2008 and beyond. They may need to make it current in May itself. Otherwise its too late.

The million dollar question is whether the 50% reduction is true? I do not know .... have been hearing so many different versions that its difficult to judge.

Guess will have to wait till the dust settles.




Q,

You always said EB1 is a big variable. It seems now (per AILA) there is going to be mid yr spillover before the Jul spillover.

Regards,
Yank

EB1 absolutely has been a big variable. Mid year spillover will be very interesting. But then one would expects dates moving quite fast right in may itself.





I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D

Ravi you used the word that came to my mind but didn't use it :-) Hopefully it won't be teh situation you "vividly" describe.

At the same time what CO has said is still fairly unclear. So need to avoid irrational exhuberance (hope i spelt it right!).

[pch053]

If its a 12K FD for the year, then also I think its a good news, right? That means EB2-I/C will be getting 12K visas from EB1 whereas it got almost nothing from EB1 in the previous years. With a 12K FD, what will be an estimate for the SOFAD? It will go past 20K, probably it will be in the range of 24 - 25K (but I might not be accurate here).

[pch053]

Q,
I think your earlier post already answers my question on SOFAD where the calculation is done with 50% EB1 reduction, i.e. EB1 usage of 20K. So the 3 possible interpretations of EB1 usage are: i) 12K FD for the year, ii) 50% reduction in EB1 usage, i.e. 20K FD for the year and iii) 24K FD for the year. Even if we consider the most pessimistic one (i.e. 12K FD), then also the SOFAD seems to be around 8K(EB5) + 12K(eb1) + 9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC) - 3K (Porting) = 32K and this seems to be sufficient to clear most of the pending cases up to July - Aug'07. I think the above data doesn't consider people with PDs prior to July - Aug'07 who missed filing and I am not sure how big that number will be. Is there any serious flaw in my assumption?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

PCH
I think you are mostly right. But some people earlier today have questions whether that 12 itself is pure EB1 or it includes EB5 as well.

I think its the former. And so yes I agree w you.


Q,
I think your earlier post already answers my question on SOFAD where the calculation is done with 50% EB1 reduction, i.e. EB1 usage of 20K. So the 3 possible interpretations of EB1 usage are: i) 12K FD for the year, ii) 50% reduction in EB1 usage, i.e. 20K FD for the year and iii) 24K FD for the year. Even if we consider the most pessimistic one (i.e. 12K FD), then also the SOFAD seems to be around 8K(EB5) + 12K(eb1) + 9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC) - 3K (Porting) = 32K and this seems to be sufficient to clear most of the pending cases up to July - Aug'07. I think the above data doesn't consider people with PDs prior to July - Aug'07 who missed filing and I am not sure how big that number will be. Is there any serious flaw in my assumption?

Thanks!

[yank]

Thanks Q.

One more naive question in all this speculation. Can EB2ROW give more than 9k visa as the demand for EB1 is low and people are not porting from EB2 to Eb1?

Regards,
Yank

[Spectator]

Q,
I think your earlier post already answers my question on SOFAD where the calculation is done with 50% EB1 reduction, i.e. EB1 usage of 20K. So the 3 possible interpretations of EB1 usage are: i) 12K FD for the year, ii) 50% reduction in EB1 usage, i.e. 20K FD for the year and iii) 24K FD for the year. Even if we consider the most pessimistic one (i.e. 12K FD), then also the SOFAD seems to be around 8K(EB5) + 12K(eb1) + 9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC) - 3K (Porting) = 32K and this seems to be sufficient to clear most of the pending cases up to July - Aug'07. I think the above data doesn't consider people with PDs prior to July - Aug'07 who missed filing and I am not sure how big that number will be. Is there any serious flaw in my assumption?

Thanks!
pch053,

That is pretty much how I am looking at it, as well.

I'm using 8.4k from EB5 + 16k from EB1 + 8k from EB2 + 5.6k normal EB2-IC allocation to give SOFAD of 38k.

As headwinds, I'm allowing 6k Porting, since the Cut Off Dates have moved much further and I've also allowed 2k for PWMB applications.

That gives 38 - 6 - 2 = 30k to reduce the backlog.

Using the DOS Demand Data (as that is more optimistic than USCIS Inventory) then the FY in October started at 34k for China & India.

30k isn't quite enough to clear everything, but it should be sufficient to move it into June 2007 on the above assumptions.

There is probably sufficient uncertaintly in those figures to reach the end of the backlog in the best case, but it requires more from EB1 and possibly from EB2 as well.

It occurs to me that if the backlog is nearly cleared at the end of FY2011, then the VO will then have a lot of time in FY2012 to move the Cut Off Dates forward in a controlled manner to generate new Demand. If it doesn't appear for a few months, they can simply allocate more Visas later in the year.

No huge forward movement would be necessary.

[qesehmk]

First I will acknolwedge Spec's point that no huge movement (i.e. making the category current) may be necessary. I actually I do agree with that too. The reason being its a matter of policy whether you do want to admit those many into 485 q or not. So yes even that is a not such an insignificant possibility.

However I would imagine that there are not such huge policy objectives tied to keep people waiting. Rather there are good policy objectives tied through business community that these people get to file at least 485 so that they can get EAD soon and the uncertainty goes away. Besides doing that also allows USCIS sufficient time to adjudicate cases and enjoy fees.



Thanks Q.

One more naive question in all this speculation. Can EB2ROW give more than 9k visa as the demand for EB1 is low and people are not porting from EB2 to Eb1?

Regards,
Yank

yank, I wouldn't worry about EB2ROW to EB1 porting at all. EB2ROW has been current so there is not issue. The real question is - is there significant EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting? Again my gut feel tells me no. But I do not have solid data to back it up.

[pch053]

This is a very minor point in the above analysis. For the PWMB cases, even if people become eligible to submit their I485, they might not get their approvals by Sep'11. For example, people submitting their I485 around May - July might get their approval past Sep'11 (~avg. turnaround time is 4 months). Not sure what effect (if at all any) this will have on the movement of EB2-I/C PDs.

Finally, I will be curious to know why there is a sudden drop in EB1 usage. I doubt there has been any change in EB1A and EB1B; in fact, my lawyer mentioned to me that more people are giving EB1A a try and I personally have seen a couple of average cases getting through but still I don't feel these are significant in the overall number crunching. So, the usage of EB1C is probably the one which has dipped a lot this year; it was roughly ~60% of total EB1 usage in the past years and also one of the most abused categories. The reduction in usage might be due to more stringent criteria on behalf of USCIS or it might be that fewer employers are trying this option.

[pch053]

This is the posting of the EB2 movement news in murthy.com: http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb2a11.html
It clearly says that the 12K FD is from EB1 but its not clear whether the 12K spillover is expected for the entire FY11 year or is it the number of spillovers in 1st and 2nd quarter (meaning if one extrapolates it to 4 quarters, it will be 24K). So the FD range from EB1 is between 12K - 24K and Spec's assumption of 16K in the SOFAD calculation sounds quite reasonable to me.

[Spectator]

This is a very minor point in the above analysis. For the PWMB cases, even if people become eligible to submit their I485, they might not get their approvals by Sep'11. For example, people submitting their I485 around May - July might get their approval past Sep'11 (~avg. turnaround time is 4 months). Not sure what effect (if at all any) this will have on the movement of EB2-I/C PDs.

Finally, I will be curious to know why there is a sudden drop in EB1 usage. I doubt there has been any change in EB1A and EB1B; in fact, my lawyer mentioned to me that more people are giving EB1A a try and I personally have seen a couple of average cases getting through but still I don't feel these are significant in the overall number crunching. So, the usage of EB1C is probably the one which has dipped a lot this year; it was roughly ~60% of total EB1 usage in the past years and also one of the most abused categories. The reduction in usage might be due to more stringent criteria on behalf of USCIS or it might be that fewer employers are trying this option.
pch053,

Thanks for your very considered reply.

I had tried to take the lag time into consideration, but I admit it is a something of a guess. The calculation was based on a fairly significant forward movement in the May VB, which would give just enough time for new applications to be adjudicated before the end of September.

It is also quite possible that the extra visas will be spread over several months. That probably is the more likely scenario. In that case, I agree that the number of PWMB who could get approval this FY would decrease.

My rough calculation is subject to plus or minus several thousand anyway.

I too would love to know the breakdown of the reduction in EB1 by sub category. Like you, my gut says it is more in EB1C than EB1A/B. It is also possible that the denial % for EB1A has also increased.

Interesting stuff!

[veni001]

pch053,

Thanks for your very considered reply.

I had tried to take the lag time into consideration, but I admit it is a something of a guess. The calculation was based on a fairly significant forward movement in the May VB, which would give just enough time for new applications to be adjudicated before the end of September.

It is also quite possible that the extra visas will be spread over several months. That probably is the more likely scenario. In that case, I agree that the number of PWMB who could get approval this FY would decrease.

My rough calculation is subject to plus or minus several thousand anyway.

I too would love to know the breakdown of the reduction in EB1 by sub category. Like you, my gut says it is more in EB1C than EB1A/B. It is also possible that the denial % for EB1A has also increased.

Interesting stuff!

Spec,
Considering all odds, at what point can we expect DOS move the PD post July 2007? In my opinion if DOS move EB2IC PD to July 2007 they will have enough applications (not including porting and PWMB) to use-up all number for FY 2011(assuming our SOFAD calculations for FY 2011)

[TeluguBidda]

pch053,

It is also quite possible that the extra visas will be spread over several months. That probably is the more likely scenario.

On the contrary, if they are going to add 12000 visas into the original total available visas (roughly 43000), would they not push dates forward by as many months as these 12000 visas would be enough? I mean, this situation is perhaps not same or similar as that of spillover that happens during Q4.

[veni001]

On the contrary, if they are going to add 12000 visas into the original total available visas (roughly 43000), would they not push dates forward by as many months as these 12000 visas would be enough? I mean, this situation is perhaps not same or similar as that of spillover that happens during Q4.
TB,
As OP mentioned if they just go by 12,000 Spill Over from EB1 to EB2 but no other SOFAD then dates should move to Sept 2006 based on USCIS inventory if not to Dec 2006 based on DOS demand data.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Considering all odds, at what point can we expect DOS move the PD post July 2007? In my opinion if DOS move EB2IC PD to July 2007 they will have enough applications (not including porting and PWMB) to use-up all number for FY 2011(assuming our SOFAD calculations for FY 2011)
veni,

That is a very good question, which i don't think anyone knows the answer to. I suspect everybody has different views.

The best I can do is throw open some discussion points, withhout giving a real answer.

The first thing that occurs to me is that this acceleration might catch the VO off guard.

Prior to the announcement about EB1 numbers, I suspect they thought they had another year to plan for this eventuality. As part of that, I think they were probably (or should have been) pushing USCIS for some breakdown of approved I-140s by Country and PD. That would have allowed the VO to plan forward movement of the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007.

Assuming that doesn't exist yet, then the VO may be shooting in the dark to a certain extent.

The VO mandate is not to waste Visas, but, at the same time, it is also to set the Cut Off Dates at a level that just achieves that aim.

If the VO has any thoughts that they will run out of available cases to allocate visas to in FY2011, they may decide to push the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007 in FY2011 itself.

I think we all realize timing is the issue. Any movement can't be made at the last moment, otherwise there is no time to close out the cases. Moving the dates to the end of 2007 would give a sizable buffer.

Whether the VO feels the need to do that or not, moving into FY2012 is a different ball game. The VO then have the luxury of time on their side. Porting cases alone might be enough to utilize the 250 / month early in FY2012. If not, the numbers can be caught up later in the year.

At some point next year, the Cut Off Dates need to move forward enough to account for Spillover in FY2012. Possibly they will wait until around the end of March 2012 to gauge Demand in other categories, as they did this year.

I feel the VO don't want to see the return of cycles of forward movement followed by retrogression, as we saw recently with many of the Family Based Categories.

The case against that is the fact that the VO did that for FB at all. The situation may be different for EB, due to the vastly different split between USCIS / Consular Processing.

Of course, they may just say "Oh, the heck to it!" and move the Cut Off Dates way forward and then retrogress the Dates back again.

The other option would be to set the EB2 Cut Off Dates where the VO think it will reach (e.g. June 2007). If they get it slightly wrong and USCIS don't provide sufficient EB2 cases, the Visas could Fall Down to EB3-ROW. The mandate not to waste Visas would still be fulfilled.

A one line answer would be "Who knows!" although discussing it is fun and thought provoking.

I would be interested in your own thoughts and the reasons why it might happen.

[qesehmk]

veni,

Remember there is still ROW EB2 spillover (may be 9K) available over and above that 12K. So the dates will move quite past Sep 06.


TB,
As OP mentioned if they just go by 12,000 Spill Over from EB1 to EB2 but no other SOFAD then dates should move to Sept 2006 based on USCIS inventory if not to Dec 2006 based on DOS demand data.

[veni001]

veni,

That is a very good question, which i don't think anyone knows the answer to. I suspect everybody has different views.

The best I can do is throw open some discussion points, withhout giving a real answer.

The first thing that occurs to me is that this acceleration might catch the VO off guard.

Prior to the announcement about EB1 numbers, I suspect they thought they had another year to plan for this eventuality. As part of that, I think they were probably (or should have been) pushing USCIS for some breakdown of approved I-140s by Country and PD. That would have allowed the VO to plan forward movement of the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007.

Assuming that doesn't exist yet, then the VO may be shooting in the dark to a certain extent.

The VO mandate is not to waste Visas, but, at the same time, it is also to set the Cut Off Dates at a level that just achieves that aim.

If the VO has any thoughts that they will run out of available cases to allocate visas to in FY2011, they may decide to push the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007 in FY2011 itself.

I think we all realize timing is the issue. Any movement can't be made at the last moment, otherwise there is no time to close out the cases. Moving the dates to the end of 2007 would give a sizable buffer.

Whether the VO feels the need to do that or not, moving into FY2012 is a different ball game. The VO then have the luxury of time on their side. Porting cases alone might be enough to utilize the 250 / month early in FY2012. If not, the numbers can be caught up later in the year.

At some point next year, the Cut Off Dates need to move forward enough to account for Spillover in FY2012. Possibly they will wait until around the end of March 2012 to gauge Demand in other categories, as they did this year.

I feel the VO don't want to see the return of cycles of forward movement followed by retrogression, as we saw recently with many of the Family Based Categories.

The case against that is the fact that the VO did that for FB at all. The situation may be different for EB, due to the vastly different split between USCIS / Consular Processing.

Of course, they may just say "Oh, the heck to it!" and move the Cut Off Dates way forward and then retrogress the Dates back again.

The other option would be to set the EB2 Cut Off Dates where the VO think it will reach (e.g. June 2007). If they get it slightly wrong and USCIS don't provide sufficient EB2 cases, the Visas could Fall Down to EB3-ROW. The mandate not to waste Visas would still be fulfilled.

A one line answer would be "Who knows!" although discussing it is fun and thought provoking.

I would be interested in your own thoughts and the reasons why it might happen.

Thanks Spec,
I am swinging between DOS and USCIS demand data/pending inventory and EB1 Spill Over VS total SOFAD as of April 2011.
Assuming that DOS uses their demand data to set VB based on USCIS usage history for the first 2Q's, my guesstimate is they will move dates at least into 2007 in May VB.

[veni001]

veni,

Remember there is still ROW EB2 spillover (may be 9K) available over and above that 12K. So the dates will move quite past Sep 06.

Q,
If DOS is going to use total SOFAD available as of April 2011, total SOFAD to EB2I&C will be (from the first 2 quarters)

EB1 - 12k
Eb2(ROW) -9k
Eb5 -(4k)
+ May 2011 allocation for EB2IC

Total SOFAD~=26k

Based on DOS EBI&C demand before Jan 01, 2007 is only 17,400 and before August 01, 2007 is 32,675. so they should be looking in between Jan 01, 2007- Aug 01, 2007.

[Spectator]

I know Teddy has been very busy recently.

I thought it might be useful to republish his last published table, since it is now so far back in the thread.

I hope he doesn't mind. Given the accelerated timescale, Teddy may well be revising it slightly. I look forward to the latest version.


The offset factor includes PD porting as 6k-1.5K (As 1.5K porting should be in the inventory) also 1/4th of I/C cap is consumed. 28K will help us to barely clear 2010 and with say 15 days buffer we will be in Jan 2007. Offset also includes older cases that are current.

Month-Year India China PWMB CP "Total
Monthly" "Cumlative
Sum
"
Offset 8000 1000 0 0 9000 9000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 10348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 12785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 15110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 17680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 20398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 23077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 25681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 28632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 31126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 33485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 35871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 38200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 40389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 43319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 48880

[veni001]

I know Teddy has been very busy recently.

I thought it might be useful to republish his last published table, since it is now so far back in the thread.

I hope he doesn't mind. Given the accelerated timescale, Teddy may well be revising it slightly. I look forward to the latest version.

Spec,
We should exclude PWMB numbers from the cumulative totals when talking about DOS demand data used to set the PD for the monthly Visa Bulletin!

[haripathhi]

Guys,

An interesting perspective to the Kazarian case is published on murthy.com. Check this out: http://murthy.com/bulletin.html (VOL. XVII, no. 13; Apr 2011, week 1
Posted : 01.Apr.2011)

[qesehmk]

We had discussed Kazarian case a few weeks back. I think that the Kazarian case is the reason why these is such a significant scrutiny and 50% drop in approvals. What's encouraging is that the drop is confirmed from two sources - one is CO and the other is trackitt. The match is so well that it is quite credible.

I am fairly convinced that the 12K is not only pure EB1 but it is in fact not fulll year number.

The 50% drop when applied to EB1 full year quota would be 20K. So if EB1 alone will give 20K then this is how total SOFAD could reach:

8K (EB5)+20K(EB1) + 8K EB2ROW + 6K EB2IC - 4K porting = 38K. That's almost enough to clear the backlog through Jul 2007. Will update the model over weekend and post. But this will bring an end to the misery of a lot of EB2 folks .... those who have filed 485 and those who haven't.

The worst case scenario seems to be that EB5 will again see a rise and EB1 picks up speed. The first probably has a risk of 4-5K max. The second one has a risk of max 8K (given that 12K is already in the bag). The combined risk wouldn't be more than 10K and hence will easily reach the dates into Jan 07. Stay tuned for an update to the model over weekend.

[pch053]

Do we have any more insights on how the EB2-ROW consumption is this year as compared to the previous years. For example, can we extrapolate EB2-ROW data from trackitt approvals, i.e. comparing # of 2011 approvals vs. # of 2010 approvals. Not sure, whether there is enough EB2-ROW representation in trackitt so that we have a reliable and big enough sample size. Looking forward your new model/prediction!

[nuvikas]

Hello, My EB-2 I priority date is Dec 2006 and I filed 485 in Jul 2007. My case was transferred in 2009 at NBC. Where I had an interview and every thing was in order and a visa number was requested but since the priority date was not current it was not issued. Subsequently my case was transferred back to TSC in Feb and I received that notification. Yesterday I received the following message : -

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Initial Review

The I485 APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS was transferred and is now being processed at a USCIS office. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.


During this step, USCIS initiates the background checks of the applicant/petitioner and identifies issues that may need to be addressed either during an interview or by asking the applicant/petitioner to submit additional information or documentation. USCIS reviews the applicant's/petitioner's criminal history, determines if there are national security concerns that need to be addressed, and reviews the application/petition for fraud indicators

If you have filed an I-485, I-589, I-751, N-400, I-90, I-821, I-131 or I-765, you can expect to receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints and/or photographs taken. The timing of your appointment is determined by the number of applicants ahead of you that also need a biometric appointment. We try to schedule biometric appointments as quickly as possible and in most cases you will receive your appointment notice within 30 days of submitting your application. We will send your appointment notice approximately 14 days ahead of your scheduled appointment. It is important that you keep this appointment. If absolutely necessary, you can request that your appointment be rescheduled however, please be aware that rescheduling may delay the processing of your application. Please follow the instructions on your appointment notice if you need to reschedule. Occasionally, you may receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints taken when you have filed a form other than those listed above. In these situations, you may receive your appointment notice more than 30 days after submitting your application or petition.


If you have questions or concerns about your application or the case status results
listed above, or if you have not received a decision from USCIS within the current
processing time listed*, please contact USCIS Customer Service at (800) 375-5283."

My question is why did the message not say that every thing is in order and we will issue you a visa once your priority date is current. Did other people with similar situation also received this message or was it different for them?
Thanks in advance.

[Spectator]

pch,

I have been charting that exact data, but it is somewhat inconclusive.

If you look at the total raw data, then EB2-ROW (excluding M &P) is running at 89% of the FY2010 figures. That would give around 22k for the year when extrapolated. Prior to March, they were running at c. 23.5k and it does not need much of a burst of approvals to resume that level.

However October figures are always slightly problematic, since they may contain approvals where the Visa was actually allocated from the previous year's allocation, but not approved until a date in the current FY.

October approvals in FY2010 were much higher than in FY2011. If you exclude October, FY2011 approvals Nov - March are 110% of of the FY2010 level.

On the other hand, FY2011 had a surge in January.

In FY2010 there was a surge of EB2-ROW approvals in June, July & August, followed by relatively few in September. Will that happen again in FY2011?

It is quite difficult to forecast when the approvals are "lumpy".

The raw data is shown below. It is Primary approvals only, adjusted for Country of Chargeability etc. I hope you find it useful.

----------- EB2-ROW ----
------- FY2010 - FY2011

Oct ----- 115 ----- 70
Nov ------ 34 ----- 27
Dec ------ 40 ----- 32
Jan ------ 25 ----- 49
Feb ------ 23 ----- 25
Mar ------ 31 ----- 35
Apr ------ 38
May ------ 33
Jun ------ 51
Jun ------ 58
Aug ------ 46
Sep ------ 21

Tot ----- 515 ---- 238

[qesehmk]

PCH (& Spec)

Here is some data to think about for EB2 ROW.

Trackitt shows 13% YoY reduction in approvals. However it shows 23% reduction in 485 receipts. Since the surge already happened for ROW last year. The chances for another 485 surge are less. So full year ROW approvals will be about 15-20% less compared to last year. Here is how it could play at 20% less approvals.


2010 2011
EB Quota 150000 140000
EB2 Quota 42900 40040
EB2 ROW(M+P) Quota 36900 34040
Approved 27500 22000 20% reduction
FA 9400 12040

So one can see that at 20% less approvals for EB2 ROW teh FA to EB2IC could actually increase to 12K this year.

But it is a good idea to be conservative and say that the FA will be same as last year i.e. 9K.


Do we have any more insights on how the EB2-ROW consumption is this year as compared to the previous years. For example, can we extrapolate EB2-ROW data from trackitt approvals, i.e. comparing # of 2011 approvals vs. # of 2010 approvals. Not sure, whether there is enough EB2-ROW representation in trackitt so that we have a reliable and big enough sample size. Looking forward your new model/prediction!

[Spectator]

Q,

I actually agree to a certain extent.

pch asked about the FY2010 vs, FY2011 comparison, so I provided the figures.

If approvals were linear, it would be extremely useful. However they are not. The lumpy nature of approvals leads to wide error margins and with 6 months still to go, it encompasses everything from increased approvals to reduced approvals.

At this point, such an approach has limited value, especially as the situations pertaining to each year may be different (as you pointed out).

The Q2 PERM figures should be available shortly. They "may" provide some additional information and insight into what is going to happen this year. If nothing else, they provide a much larger number base.

[qesehmk]

Spec

You are right. Thats why it can't be taken to the bank immediately.
But somehow I think the probability of another ROW EB2 surge is relatively low. And the probability of that surge turning into approvals is lower.
Because the labors will then have to work their way up into 140 and then 485 and everything that goes with it.

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.


Q,

I actually agree to a certain extent.

pch asked about the FY2010 vs, FY2011 comparison, so I provided the figures.

If approvals were linear, it would be extremely useful. However they are not. The lumpy nature of approvals leads to wide error margins and with 6 months still to go, it encompasses everything from increased approvals to reduced approvals.

At this point, such an approach has limited value, especially as the situations pertaining to each year may be different (as you pointed out).

The Q2 PERM figures should be available shortly. They "may" provide some additional information and insight into what is going to happen this year. If nothing else, they provide a much larger number base.

[zenmaster]

Guys check this out : RonGothcher Forum Link (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/family-based-immigration-10/process-after-nvc-receives-the-checklist-13802/)
(read the 4th post)
Ron's firm received fee bill(Consular Process NVC) for someone with priority date of Sep 2007 !!!

Nice hints of whats in store next 4 months !!! :)

[Spectator]

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.
Q,

Not as soon as I had initially thought.

I downloaded the Q1 file on Feb 15, which was 6 weeks after the end of Q1. So I guess the Q2 figures won't be available until something like May 15.

Prevailing Wage Data was a couple of weeks later.

[pch053]

Q & Spec,
Thanks for the detailed analysis on EB2-ROW; with the data available, this is probably the best we can do now. I think it will be reasonably safe to assume in all our calculations that EB2-ROW will be in and around the vicinity of EB2-ROW usage from last year with an allowance of 10% 15% (either more or less); this will probably translate to 3K - 4K visas.

[alex99]

Sushterman Law Firm Update on EB2 VISA AVAILABILTY FOR MAY:
EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

[soggadu]

Guys,

My PD is EB2 India Oct 22 2007. We are planning for having a kid and i am wondering if it is a better idea to get done with any vaccines along with medical report. Also, do we need to get any vaccination done for applying for 485? Please let me know...

Thanks

Sogg

[veni001]

Sushterman Law Firm Update on EB2 VISA AVAILABILTY FOR MAY:
EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

Definitely we can expect significant PD movement in May based on the information and source, but not years based on the inventory and preadjudicated cases!

[veni001]

Spec

You are right. Thats why it can't be taken to the bank immediately.
But somehow I think the probability of another ROW EB2 surge is relatively low. And the probability of that surge turning into approvals is lower.
Because the labors will then have to work their way up into 140 and then 485 and everything that goes with it.

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.

Q,
I agree some extent to your comment but i believe all ROW labors approved and eligible for EB2 on or before June 30, 2011 will have a chance to use numbers from FY 2011.

[TeddyKoochu]

veni,

Remember there is still ROW EB2 spillover (may be 9K) available over and above that 12K. So the dates will move quite past Sep 06.

Q I believe we will have higher spillover from EB2 ROW this year the Trackitt trend shows that utilization is down to 60% of last year and Trackitt is fairly good about EB2 ROW.

Spec I will put my modified predictions soon; I feel that there is a very good chance of us hitting Jul - Aug 2007 this year if the May VB news is true.

[pch053]

This is the posting from Shusterman's website and he seems to be optimistic too about EB2-I/C PD movement:

EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

[TeddyKoochu]

I know Teddy has been very busy recently.

I thought it might be useful to republish his last published table, since it is now so far back in the thread.

I hope he doesn't mind. Given the accelerated timescale, Teddy may well be revising it slightly. I look forward to the latest version.

Spec this is a public table its all yours to use.

[TeddyKoochu]

We had discussed Kazarian case a few weeks back. I think that the Kazarian case is the reason why these is such a significant scrutiny and 50% drop in approvals. What's encouraging is that the drop is confirmed from two sources - one is CO and the other is trackitt. The match is so well that it is quite credible.

I am fairly convinced that the 12K is not only pure EB1 but it is in fact not fulll year number.

The 50% drop when applied to EB1 full year quota would be 20K. So if EB1 alone will give 20K then this is how total SOFAD could reach:

8K (EB5)+20K(EB1) + 8K EB2ROW + 6K EB2IC - 4K porting = 38K. That's almost enough to clear the backlog through Jul 2007. Will update the model over weekend and post. But this will bring an end to the misery of a lot of EB2 folks .... those who have filed 485 and those who haven't.

The worst case scenario seems to be that EB5 will again see a rise and EB1 picks up speed. The first probably has a risk of 4-5K max. The second one has a risk of max 8K (given that 12K is already in the bag). The combined risk wouldn't be more than 10K and hence will easily reach the dates into Jan 07. Stay tuned for an update to the model over weekend.

Q I agree with your assessment I bleive that EB2 ROW will give us more SOFAD this year. TheTrackitt trend shows a decline to 60% of last year. If the May VB news is true then the Jul - Aug 2007 line will be crossed

[veni001]

Q I agree with your assessment I bleive that EB2 ROW will give us more SOFAD this year. TheTrackitt trend shows a decline to 60% of last year. If the May VB news is true then the Jul - Aug 2007 line will be crossed

Teddy,
Looks like the source of information is only referring to 12k EB1 spill over will be applied in May VB for EB2. Is it wise to assume DOS&USCIS do the same from EB2ROW and EB5 in May? Assuming our estimates are some what near reality then DOS/USCIS should advance EB2IC PD into 2007 to give enough time to process cases so that the numbers will not go waste at the end of the year?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Looks like the source of information is only referring to 12k EB1 spill over will be applied in May VB for EB2. Is it wise to assume DOS&USCIS do the same from EB2ROW and EB5 in May? Assuming our estimates are some what near reality then DOS/USCIS should advance EB2IC PD into 2007 to give enough time to process cases so that the numbers will not go waste at the end of the year?

Traditionally they do that only in Jul, so for now lets assume they are doing only 12K this should put the dates in the Oct - Nov 2006 range.

[bestin]

Thanks Guys..!!!Carry out the excellent work.My attorney mentioned that the May bulletin will move or 1 year until May 2007 and july should be sometime this summer.Lets see how it goes.

[veni001]

Traditionally they do that only in Jul, so for now lets assume they are doing only 12K this should put the dates in the Oct - Nov 2006 range.

Teddy,
Thanks, I am with you.

[qesehmk]

Sogg, Pregnant women are exempt from vaccination as far as 485 filing and related medical goes.

p.s. - However they do have to finally get it done before getting the actual GC. Thanks to Teddy for pointing it out! I do not know if it can be preemtively done. It might be a good idea to talk to a doctor and ask if during pregnancy vaccinations are safe. If they are then in all likelihood you will file pretty soon. If vaccinations are not safe then it might be a good idea to vaccinate before pregnancy and use those records for the post 485-filing medical examination.


Guys,

My PD is EB2 India Oct 22 2007. We are planning for having a kid and i am wondering if it is a better idea to get done with any vaccines along with medical report. Also, do we need to get any vaccination done for applying for 485? Please let me know...

Thanks

Sogg

[bieber]

Q

at some point (most likely this fiscal year) demand data should show zero for EB2IC, It takes atleast 4 months for dependents who missed last time and porting whoever will apply to make it into the Demand Data. Is this correct? Since there are only 4 bulletins left in this fiscal, technically whatever inventory we have for EB2IC right now is the maximum demand that can be possible.

When that happens, Can DOS actually set a date other than C?

[qesehmk]

Q,
I agree some extent to your comment but i believe all ROW labors approved and eligible for EB2 on or before June 30, 2011 will have a chance to use numbers from FY 2011.
The average time to approval for 485 for ROW EB2 is 138 days i.e. 4.5 months. So not far from what you are suggesting. Right now its about 6 months left. So if there is no surge in next 2 months .. then EB2 ROW will probably consume 20% less compared to last year and yield 12K FA.



Thanks Guys..!!!Carry out the excellent work.My attorney mentioned that the May bulletin will move or 1 year until May 2007 and july should be sometime this summer.Lets see how it goes.

Many sources seem to suggest that May will move by years. But I must say that USCIS tends to move dates in Jun Jul. So may be lets not have very high hopes on date movements in May itself.


Teddy ... good to hear from you. Welcome back!

[qesehmk]

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

Q

at some point (most likely this fiscal year) demand data should show zero for EB2IC, It takes atleast 4 months for dependents who missed last time and porting whoever will apply to make it into the Demand Data. Is this correct? Since there are only 4 bulletins left in this fiscal, technically whatever inventory we have for EB2IC right now is the maximum demand that can be possible.

When that happens, Can DOS actually set a date other than C?

[krishnav]

Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to be current. So, assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

[veni001]

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

Since both DOS and USCIS is coordinating together in setting the PD now, i am sure they have a handle on approved i140 by month by country. Also as we have seen in the last couple of years, only time EB2I PD can advance is when FA or SOFAD numbers are available. So it all depends on when they will clear the existing backlog, beginning of FY then there may not be significant movement, 3rd or 4thQ then chances of significant movement!

[leo07]

I think post July-2007, DOS and CIS are coordinating much better than ever before. Yet, they are two gov orgs, so the lag is expected. I agree that they will have to move dates before seeing their usual/nearest inventory levels. This lag could be beneficial for May-June-July 07 applicants, the border-line cases for calendar year 2011. I don't think DOS will move dates to Current for EB2IC. If they do that, it practically chokes the CIS system completely again, not in the best interest of DOS now. My 2 cents

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

[veni001]

I think post July-2007, DOS and CIS are coordinating much better than ever before. Yet, they are two gov orgs, so the lag is expected. I agree that they will have to move dates before seeing their usual/nearest inventory levels. This lag could be beneficial for May-June-July 07 applicants, the border-line cases for calendar year 2011. I don't think DOS will move dates to Current for EB2IC. If they do that, it practically chokes the CIS system completely again, not in the best interest of DOS now. My 2 cents

Leo,
I agree, this year the chance for moving dates to near or to Aug 2007 is high, with FY 2011 trending so far.

[qesehmk]

Friends ... as promised, head of the thread updated!

Teddy, Spec and others; I included your information to the best of my knowledge. Pls let me know if you want to change it.

[veni001]

Friends ... as promised, head of the thread updated!

Teddy, Spec and others; I included your information to the best of my knowledge. Pls let me know if you want to change it.

Q,
Good Job.

[anuran]

To a large extent your line of thinking is true. But there are estimates out there that indicate EB2I may have racked up to 98000 I-485/I-140 cumulative. That make it absolutely impossible for the PD to become current with the estimated spillover ranging between 20000 to 36000. Those numbers have to be used to make India/China PD equalize and then move forward. You see how this number game goes? All the best.

[qesehmk]

Experts - have a question. Is it fair to say that EB2 I/C PERMS/I-140s will likely have dropped significantly in 2008 and 2009 (economy + greater scrutiny). So making EB2 I/C dates current or advancing them significantly is unlikely to create a huge influx of 485s as we saw in 2007. Not making a statement but really just a question. Any color on this would be highly appreciated.


The statement could be true but for a different reason. The reason is that DOS and USCIS have improved their visibility and coordination to pending applications. Economic conditions certainly matter. But IMHO that wouldn't deter USCIS from opening the flood gates for a couple of months.



To a large extent your line of thinking is true. But there are estimates out there that indicate EB2I may have racked up to 98000 I-485/I-140 cumulative. That make it absolutely impossible for the PD to become current with the estimated spillover ranging between 20000 to 36000. Those numbers have to be used to make India/China PD equalize and then move forward. You see how this number game goes? All the best.

Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner.

[anuran]

"Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner."

That is the big question. This year is sort of special in that all indications are that the backlogs till July 2007 will get eliminated. How will/should DoS react to that condition? DoS has all along acted as if there is nothing beyond this date. But, they do know that there is a lot of 485s out there. Sanity would dictate to them to take it easy. However, those who just go by the book would open the sluice fully. This where I am ending up scratching my head too. Will DoS dare to setup an arbitrary number or dare to open the gates? Well when I say arbitrary number, I am of course assuming that DoS has no hidden data beyond the published visa numbers used to estimate the PD in VB.

[qesehmk]

True. Most of us will be scratching our heads! No one can say what will happen. Ability to file 485 allows applicants to earn EAD and AC21 option. However, it makes absolutely no difference to the cycle time to get GC.


"Of course ... there is a huge number EB2IC waiting to file 485 post Jul-2007. The question is whether DoS will open flood gates or take in new applications in a controlled manner."

That is the big question. This year is sort of special in that all indications are that the backlogs till July 2007 will get eliminated. How will/should DoS react to that condition? DoS has all along acted as if there is nothing beyond this date. But, they do know that there is a lot of 485s out there. Sanity would dictate to them to take it easy. However, those who just go by the book would open the sluice fully. This where I am ending up scratching my head too. Will DoS dare to setup an arbitrary number or dare to open the gates? Well when I say arbitrary number, I am of course assuming that DoS has no hidden data beyond the published visa numbers used to estimate the PD in VB.

[krishnav]

Hello,

Can someone please shed some light on this question.

Thanks.


Sept 2007 Priority Date?



Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to get current this year. Assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

[veni001]

Hello,

Can someone please shed some light on this question.

Thanks.


Sept 2007 Priority Date?



Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to get current this year. Assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

Krishnav,
We cannot completely rule out that EB2IC dates will not move beyond July 2007, hopefully we will get a glimpse in may 2007 Bulletin(next week).
The reason dates are not moving in the beginning of FY is because no spillover or fall across applied by USCIS, without which EB2I gets only 233 VISAS per month ({7% of 40k}/12).

[krishnav]

Krishnav,
We cannot completely rule out that EB2IC dates will not move beyond July 2007, hopefully we will get a glimpse in may 2007 Bulletin(next week).
The reason dates are not moving in the beginning of FY is because no spillover or fall across applied by USCIS, without which EB2I gets only 233 VISAS per month ({7% of 40k}/12).

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

[veni001]

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

[leo07]

Krishnav, firstly there's no stupid question. In fact, yours is a good question.

Basically, there are two parameters for EB2I( to certain extent C): a. Existing EB2-I applications before may 08 2006. b. Upgraded Eb3I Applications that have priority dates before May 08,2006.

In the current scenario where CIS strictly moves with monthly available visas--> In a given month, for the dates to move even by a day, =Sum(all_eb2I_applications_with_PD_before_may08_20 06_including_upgraded_Eb3_2_EB2_cases) < ~275

However, with Charles O's claim that there are 12k additional EB1 visas readily available to be applied to EB2IC, the above equation could be thrown out of the window.

Thanks Veni001 for the response.

I understanf without spillover EB2I only gets less number (233 as you said) of VISAS per month. But why dont the dates change even by a day or week for months? Essentially, my question is why do they want to wait till May or June to get an actual count of the spillover numbers available when they should be concentrating first on the available count of visas.

Now, if there 233 x 6 = 1398 visas already taken care of but all of them fall under dates before May 08 2006 then never mind...I understand. Sorry, if this is a stupid question.

[krishnav]

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

Thanks again Veni001

[krishnav]

Krishnav, firstly there's no stupid question. In fact, yours is a good question.

Basically, there are two parameters for EB2I( to certain extent C): a. Existing EB2-I applications before may 08 2006. b. Upgraded Eb3I Applications that have priority dates before May 08,2006.

In the current scenario where CIS strictly moves with monthly available visas--> In a given month, for the dates to move even by a day, =Sum(all_eb2I_applications_with_PD_before_may08_20 06_including_upgraded_Eb3_2_EB2_cases) < ~275

However, with Charles O's claim that there are 12k additional EB1 visas readily available to be applied to EB2IC, the above equation could be thrown out of the window.

Thanks you Leo07

[TeluguBidda]

No one knows how and when USCIS applies Fall across and Spill over numbers. Last year it started in last quarter, this year is going to be in May, as per the sources.

Are you sure? The only update so far is that 12000 visas from EB-1 will be added to EB-2 category. There has not been any update or talk around general falldown or spillover

[veni001]

Are you sure? The only update so far is that 12000 visas from EB-1 will be added to EB-2 category. There has not been any update or talk around general falldown or spillover

Don't know, but we will by next week!

[nuvikas]

Latest post by Ron - Interesting

Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"


Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year.

[baba2s]

Good news.

This confirm that 12000 is available from just first 6 months ( its not estimate for full FY). Assuming another 12000 for next 6 months, we are looking for lot spillover

24000 (EB1) + 10000 ( EB2 ROW) + 7500 (EB5) = 40000+
wow.. Happy days ahead


Latest post by Ron - Interesting

Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"


Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year.

[leo07]

Thanks for the post. It's good to see that DOS is trying to forecast this time, instead of strictly going by numbers.

Depending on how far they move dates in May-Bulletin, there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2007 PDs) folks.

[ifaith]

Thanks for the post. It's good to see that DOS is trying to forecast this time, instead of strictly going by numbers.

Depending on how far they move dates in May-Bulletin, there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2006 PDs) folks.

Hi Leo07
Can you elaborate on "there could be a danger however for "border-line"(May-June-July 2006 PDs" not sure what danger you are talking about.

Thanks
A

[veni001]

Good news.

This confirm that 12000 is available from just first 6 months ( its not estimate for full FY). Assuming another 12000 for next 6 months, we are looking for lot spillover

24000 (EB1) + 10000 ( EB2 ROW) + 7500 (EB5) = 40000+
wow.. Happy days ahead

If this is going to be the case then, they need to move dates to DEC 2007 in May 2011 to give enough time to process new applications to utilize all FY 2011 VISAS by September 2011.

[khushraho]

First of all thanks for the good work..Good work..This is my first post in this forum..


My question is, did your Eb2 prediction take into account the possible 140 rejections?

This is important as USCIS is behind these small body shopping companies now a days and they constitute at least half of these PERM approvals..

My swag is 75% approval and 25% rejection. Anywhere close?

[qesehmk]

Khush,

Welcome to forum. The I-140 approval rejection is baked into "the 50% reduction in new 485 filings" assumption.


First of all thanks for the good work..Good work..This is my first post in this forum..


My question is, did your Eb2 prediction take into account the possible 140 rejections?

This is important as USCIS is behind these small body shopping companies now a days and they constitute at least half of these PERM approvals..

My swag is 75% approval and 25% rejection. Anywhere close?

[veni001]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-feb.pdf

Receipts and approvals are down!

[anuran]

There are lots of predictions that seem to project May VB dates somewhere between 01Jan2007 to even early 2009. As of now DoS seems to have 12000 visas and indications are that it would be divided between India and China as 9000 and 3000 visas respectively - an approximate 36% of the backlog. The cumulative pending I485s till October2006 is 10109 for India & 3609 for China. This can be cleared with 12000. This would leave India and China with further pending 13000 and 6000 485s, respectively... and a PD of October 2006. Furthermore backlogs can be cleared only as DoS gets a better picture of more spillovers. Interestingly some Chinese websites are indicating that some lawyers have been in communication with DoS and think that their 2800 allocation will also be exhausted in May'11. If that is true then Dec2006 PD in May is a possibility.

However I do understand what some seem to think as overall predicted spillover in the range of 40k and the expected complete abolition of the 34183 pending 485s for I/C. And thus the predicted movement of the PD to Aug 2007 sometime during May-Sep'2011. I cannot see any reason to predict dates beyond that. However, I have a feeling that from May'11 onwards the PD will move much more steadily and rapidly than we have been seeing in the past. That would be due to the efficient processing and management of spillovers by the whomsoever is dealing them.

[pch053]

This is the link to the thread in Ron's forum which updates on the discussion related to EB2 PD movement. Based on my understanding after reading the update, they will consider 12,000 FD from EB1 to EB2 for the May bulletin. This will translate to around approx. 9,000 visas going to EB2-I & 3,000 going to EB2-C and the PD will be in the range of Oct'06. I will be interested in seeing Ron's reply on EB2 movement prediction in this thread.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/more-on-eb2-cutoff-date-movement-13856/