EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011 [Archive] - Page 31

cool_mj007

09-19-2011, 01:55 PM

bieber

09-19-2011, 03:26 PM

Nishanth

Eventhough I still think there will be a hard stop at Aug15(17), 2007, there are 2 CO statements from which I'm drawing my conclusion,

according to other forum (can't remember the name) CO wants to talk with CIS regarding 140 numbers once the dates reach Aug15,2007

In october bulletin, it's clearly mentioned this move is to build the pipeline, which makes complete sense because demand data already shows bigger number than IC quota, so they want to be ready for SO season (which I thought would be doubtful before the bulletin is released),

the important point is, it takes few months before receipts turn into Demand, will CO consider that and decide the movement based on receipts or he will just move the dates till he see actual demand?

nishant2200

09-19-2011, 03:41 PM

Bieber, thanks for clarifying. I agree with your line of thought also having a weight. Especially since we saw the official communication from VO to CIS about visa numbers run out of FY 2011 and the reason that the sudden demand shown by USCIS in early August in words written, I have even greater faith in the CO communication portrayed to the chinese friends at NIU and mittbbs.

Also the experts here said that if really there is 12k sudden demand, visas left are not enough to satisfy this fully, as well as keep India EB2I/C dates at 15th April 2007. And presto, we did see them run out of visa numbers two weeks early. It seems to me that CO did honor the EB2I/C dates as much as they could and his intent was to keep them there, to progress further to gauge demand in next FY.

The 140 numbers idea, I think CO must have already embarked upon it by now, if he is going to use that. According to Ron Gotcher, USCIS does not have 140s properly grouped by country, category, PD etc to have a meaningful answer to CO's query. I am doubting that statement by Ron, he is under-estimating USCIS at least partially.

So now, if he had to do this once dates reached August 15th, 2007, why he didn't reach there in the Oct bulletin itself.
a. does he/USCIS need more time to come up with this answer
b. does he consider July 15th 2007 as the real date till which most applications would have been received, and August 15th 2007 is more like new demand, since he thinks majority of people could not apply and are PWMB.
c. ?

Either way, I think the intent does seem to be to generate the demand early on, and not wait till SO season.

Nishanth

Eventhough I still think there will be a hard stop at Aug15(17), 2007, there are 2 CO statements from which I'm drawing my conclusion,

according to other forum (can't remember the name) CO wants to talk with CIS regarding 140 numbers once the dates reach Aug15,2007

In october bulletin, it's clearly mentioned this move is to build the pipeline, which makes complete sense because demand data already shows bigger number than IC quota, so they want to be ready for SO season (which I thought would be doubtful before the bulletin is released),

the important point is, it takes few months before receipts turn into Demand, will CO consider that and decide the movement based on receipts or he will just move the dates till he see actual demand?

soggadu

09-19-2011, 04:35 PM

All you need is proof that vaccination is given to you. Even if you have it from India, It would work. I am talking from personal experience. I just got my form I 693 done.

I have one question for the Guru's or anyone else who may have noticed this:

I have varicella history. MY doctor asked me the age when I had it. In the form he put VH but also a date in the date received column as (01/01/1988, 1988 is birth year plus the age I had varicella). When I asked the assistant she said the system automatically generate this date. Did anyone else also had the same experience. I thought they just need to put VH.

ur DOB is really 1988? wow u must be the youngest of the lot...

qesehmk

09-19-2011, 04:38 PM

Spectator

09-19-2011, 04:40 PM

Hi gurus, I did some data aggregation and have a few questions.

Background info:
I looked at the total EB category visas issued by country of origin for past 4 years and the EB2 IC sofad share has gone up lately. the 2011 numbers are estimates based on the calculations you guys have done in the past. See table below (chart attached).

FY Total EB visas EB2 - IC SOFAD
2007 153,667 8.5%
2008 161,506 13.5%
2009 136,769 9.6%
2010 148,377 17.8%
2011 (est.) 140,000 20%

Data source: tables for past 4 years from USCIS site http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

Questions:
1. First of all the total number of EB visas for past years never adds up to 140K per year, why is that? Is there something I am missing or misinterpreting from the reports?

2. If the total availability varies year over year then do we have a way of accounting/adjusting for that in the calculations you guys do? What are the factors that affect the variability?

3. How do you see those numbers change for 2012. Any estimates on what will be the total availability universe?

cool_mj007,

I see slightly different totals. You need to look at Table V, Part 3 for the full totals.

FY ------------ Total ---- EB
------------ EB visas --- Alloc.
2007 -------- 154,460 -- 147,148
(in addition there were 7,312 recaptured visas used for a total visa allocation of 154,460)
2008 -------- 162,949 -- 162,704
2009 -------- 140,987 -- 140,000
2010 -------- 150,262 -- 150,657
2011 (est.) - 140,000 -- 140,000

The yearly allocation of EB visas depends on whether there was under-use of FB visas the previous FY.

The Visa Office have already published some information on the allocation for FY2012. It appears it will be 140,000. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf That makes sense, since FB should never under-use visas as every Category is retrogressed for all Countries.

TeddyKoochu

09-19-2011, 04:54 PM

Q,

That number represents cases that may not have been updated over several FY - however long Trackitt has been running.

Over 100 have a PD that has never been Current, so are unlikely to be updated until the PD becomes Current. Others with older PD are just people who created a profile and then lost interest in Trackitt. It is surprising how many active members post about their approval, yet don't update their profile with the approval.

The ratio of Trackitt approvals to real approvals generally takes the un-updated cases into account.

There are around 4k total approvals of EB2-I in total on Trackitt. The number really only represents the 20% ish run rate for cases that are never updated.

Yes, there may be more with PDs earlier than the current Cut off Date that will be updated with an approval in the future that haven't been updated in the last 6 months or year, but if they haven't bothered to date, the number will probably be low.

Some may well be denied cases or people have just given up and gone back, but there is no way to know so, or how many they represent.

That is how I see it - it would be interesting to hear TK's view.

Based on historical data normally 10-15% used to be the norm for cases that are not updated. Now with greater clarity it’s not surprising that this number has risen. However there are ~ 425 cases un-updated that were last entered / updated since Jul 2011. I do however believe that most of these cases belong to people who did not update them after the excitement and euphoria one would have after getting GC. However there would definitely be some who are still waiting, though there are very few complaints on all forums about people complaining definitely some are there. I would have a offset of 1000 to represent the people who are current but not approved for a variety of reasons. Some case may even belong to PWMB's.

Spectator

09-19-2011, 05:31 PM

Based on historical data normally 10-15% used to be the norm for cases that are not updated. Now with greater clarity it’s not surprising that this number has risen. However there are ~ 425 cases un-updated that were last entered / updated since Jul 2011. I do however believe that most of these cases belong to people who did not update them after the excitement and euphoria one would have after getting GC. However there would definitely be some who are still waiting, though there are very few complaints on all forums about people complaining definitely some are there. I would have a offset of 1000 to represent the people who are current but not approved for a variety of reasons. Some case may even belong to PWMB's.Thanks Teddy.

nishant2200

09-19-2011, 06:58 PM

yeah, if he does 3 month move in next VB, if he does I mean, I really feel afraid we all are sweeping away in this new hope, then it would stop at 15th Oct 2007, meaning we both would be looking at Dec VB in November for our chance.

I just read the last line and was thinking yaaa why not..... :-):-)

on a serious note, why don't we follow what hopeful bhai have suggested and go through primary doc..... Would be free right...

hey N.... amour pd is in n for NOVEMBER right?..

Monica12

09-19-2011, 07:39 PM

Guys, I have been wondering how USCIS will deal with all the SR's, info pass etc once October starts...considering visas will not be available if they go by monthly quota for IC.
Is there a chance of an early quarterly spillover ?
Any thoughts?

qesehmk

09-20-2011, 12:35 AM

Great discussion on vaccinations.

Moved it to its own thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Vaccinations

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 08:39 AM

veni001

09-20-2011, 09:25 AM

Nishant & Spec

Pls through the following link to find if it helps in splitting primary + dependants

Here is a link http:/ /www. dhs.gov/files/statistics/data/DSLPR10c.shtm which details the FB & EB immigrant visas

Kanmani,
We have this info posted in FACTS AND DATA section under i140 to 485 Ratios (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29)(post#2)

veni001

09-20-2011, 09:57 AM

Thanks Veni

I & Nishant were looking for Primary + Dependents data for India and China alone

Do we have one ?

Kanmani,
Nope, but IMHO having that data is not going to change (I&C) ratios much!

cool_mj007

09-20-2011, 10:19 AM

@Spectator, thanks for clarifying, I am amazed by the deep knowledge you guys have over the issue.
At this point I think you guys have a better understanding of the GC process/numbers than USCIS folks:)
Thanks again

cool_mj007,

I see slightly different totals. You need to look at Table V, Part 3 for the full totals.

FY ------------ Total ---- EB
------------ EB visas --- Alloc.
2007 -------- 154,460 -- 147,148
(in addition there were 7,312 recaptured visas used for a total visa allocation of 154,460)
2008 -------- 162,949 -- 162,704
2009 -------- 140,987 -- 140,000
2010 -------- 150,262 -- 150,657
2011 (est.) - 140,000 -- 140,000

The yearly allocation of EB visas depends on whether there was under-use of FB visas the previous FY.

The Visa Office have already published some information on the allocation for FY2012. It appears it will be 140,000. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf That makes sense, since FB should never under-use visas as every Category is retrogressed for all Countries.

nishant2200

09-20-2011, 11:32 AM

Kanmani,
Nope, but IMHO having that data is not going to change (I&C) ratios much!

On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.

nishant2200

09-20-2011, 11:34 AM

I wouldn't be surprised to find people w PD 1990s and also people born in 1990s entering GC Q now!! Give it a few more years and with USCIS' grace there will be many such examples - unfortunately.

This is recently joking told my relatives in bay area, who were happy about my promotions etc, I told them, due to GC wait, I will one day even be a Director or Vice President of engineering here, don't be amazed, it's not a huge billions of dollars company. This is mostly due to nature of wait, and time pass to overcome my boredom. My heart will still be just dreaming of SOFAD & freedom. We need to print one of those shirts which have 'Got Milk?' written on them, and instead write 'Got SOFAD?'

Monica12

09-20-2011, 11:49 AM

This is recently joking told my relatives in bay area, who were happy about my promotions etc, I told them, due to GC wait, I will one day even be a Director or Vice President of engineering here, don't be amazed, it's not a huge billions of dollars company. This is mostly due to nature of wait, and time pass to overcome my boredom. My heart will still be just dreaming of SOFAD & freedom. We need to print one of those shirts which have 'Got Milk?' written on them, and instead write 'Got SOFAD?'
Lol! Good one dude !
In my dreams these days..I see words " green card, USCIS, deportation, I-485, spill over, fiscal year.....the list goes on and on". When I meet friends instead of saying..Hi! How are you?..I end up asking " what's your PD? "

RMS_V13

09-20-2011, 12:13 PM

Ditto on the PD
Also, exactly what I think..the PD has moved by 12-15 months every FY. Why would it be different this year? If any it should be a tad bit quicker.

Intellectually I get the math that the gurus have done but historically like you said the PD has moved 12-15 months in one FY. I'm hoping that it follows the same trend coz my PD is Aug 2008. Really conflicted here :)

benjiding

09-20-2011, 12:33 PM

grnwtg

09-20-2011, 12:43 PM

At the start of 2011, nobody were aware about strict rules around EB1 which led to good amount of spill over, I guess in 2010 we got some thing from Family Visa section which was not predicted at the start of 2010.
If we get some thing like above two cases we will definetly move till Mar-May'08 ( I mean getting green card), I guess uscis has used reasoning like you in sending NVC receipts till June'2008.

On the flip side if we dont get any thing like last couple of years we will be stuck at Nov-Dec 2008 when we reach August'2012, again CO might likely move dates till March '2008- April'2008 ( I mean getting only EAD) for getting Demand FY2013.

According to me there is definetly chances of moving till Feb'08 to April '08 for a month when we get Visa Bulletin for October'2012.

Ditto on the PD
Also, exactly what I think..the PD has moved by 12-15 months every FY. Why would it be different this year? If any it should be a tad bit quicker.

Stemcell

09-20-2011, 12:44 PM

On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.

English barrier prevents them from entering the workforce right away as compared to the headstart Indian/filipino have over English.
Japs and Koreans strangely enter workforce right away more so than chinese....i cant seem to explain that...:confused:

soggadu

09-20-2011, 12:56 PM

Pedro Gonzales

09-20-2011, 12:58 PM

" what's your PD? "

Now there's a good Tee shirt slogan, 'What's your PD, yaar?"

skpanda

09-20-2011, 01:21 PM

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

Apply anytime during Oct 2011 to March 2012 (anytime during 6 months before the expiration date on H1 Approval).

Your I94 is only for your stay in USA. So even if you did not work on H1 in April 2012, you can still stay in US based on your I94.

PS: My H1 expires in Feb 2012, I am applying for H extension in 1 week from now.

suninphx

09-20-2011, 01:29 PM

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

Important question is when your petition expires? That is really what matters. Apply at earliest possible date before petition expiry date as others have suggested.

benjiding

09-20-2011, 01:46 PM

Important question is when your petition expires? That is really what matters. Apply at earliest possible date before petition expiry date as others have suggested.

Thanks all for the replies. So I need to apply before March 2012 as the VISA stamp in the passport says March 2012, regardless of the I94 date.

soggadu

09-20-2011, 01:49 PM

Thanks all for the replies. So I need to apply before March 2012 as the VISA stamp in the passport says March 2012, regardless of the I94 date.
visa stamp date = on your passport
I 94 date = small white thing on attached to your passport
petition date = on your 1 794

So i guess you have to go with your petition date and also confirm this with the lawyer once.... as how can they give you an I 94 > your petition date... samje benji??

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 02:00 PM

As far as I know, the latest I-94 date denotes the last day of valid stay in USA. The date in the Visa stamp is meant for only travel to enter USA.

So for extension of status, we have to go by the I-94 date ( latest issued by CBP or USCIS i.e, I-94 attached to passport or I-94 attached to Petition form)

indiaeb2

09-20-2011, 02:03 PM

Folks - I am very confussed from morning. I work as a contractor and i came to know today that my current assignment will not be extended next year. My employer is a blood sucking consulting firm. My h1b is expiring may 2012. I was thinking to apply extn this novemember but today due to my contract issue i am not sure if i need to tell this to my employer or not. I find the project and he gets the money. what if i become current in Novemember then he will make issues to apply i485.

do you feel i have a chance to file my i1485 in Novemember. Will the dates move . please help me out

suninphx

09-20-2011, 02:14 PM

visa stamp date = on your passport
I 94 date = small white thing on attached to your passport
petition date = on your 1 794

So i guess you have to go with your petition date and also confirm this with the lawyer once.... as how can they give you an I 94 > your petition date... samje benji??

There can be mistakes. Generally I have seen people getting I94 of petition expiry date + 15 days. You need to always go for petition expiry date. OP will not be able to work with expired petition putting him out of status , technically.

suninphx

09-20-2011, 02:17 PM

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 03:36 PM

For extension of H1 OP has to go with petiton expiry date.

Example

Mr. X has H1B Petition with an expiry date - 31 dec 2011 .
X travels to India and on his return to usa he receives I-94 card attached to his passport validates stay up to 31 oct 2011.
In this case X has to do one of the following
1. Filing for extension of H1b before 31 oct 2011
2. Travel out of USA and come back with new I-94 card valid 31 Dec 2011
3. Go to CBP office at Airport to extend the dates from oct 31st to Dec 31 2011 ( which is not encouraged by CBP nowadays)

So for extension of H1b also pls go with the latest I-94 date not with petition expiry date otherwise it is taken as unlawful stay after I-94 expiry

nishant2200

09-20-2011, 03:43 PM

I believe you mean Nov-Dec 2007

At the start of 2011, nobody were aware about strict rules around EB1 which led to good amount of spill over, I guess in 2010 we got some thing from Family Visa section which was not predicted at the start of 2010.
If we get some thing like above two cases we will definetly move till Mar-May'08 ( I mean getting green card), I guess uscis has used reasoning like you in sending NVC receipts till June'2008.

On the flip side if we dont get any thing like last couple of years we will be stuck at Nov-Dec 2008 when we reach August'2012, again CO might likely move dates till March '2008- April'2008 ( I mean getting only EAD) for getting Demand FY2013.

According to me there is definetly chances of moving till Feb'08 to April '08 for a month when we get Visa Bulletin for October'2012.

Nishant_imt

09-20-2011, 04:13 PM

Buddy.... I would say this... I had been in quite similar situation last year. What i did was, i file for the extension only 2 weeks prior to expiry of my petition. As long as you apply before petition expiry date, you are fine even if your petition doesn't arrive in next 6 months (Mine arrived after 5 months of petition expiry). So, i would advice that you should find another contract. Talk to your employer and tell him the exact situation. In the mean while if you become current, it shouldn't be a problem for your employer to file for I-485 since a) you must be paying for it (i am assuming) and b) Greencard is for future employment. Now, if you are ready to stay in job without pay, no one can stop you from working for your employer. Just give him a request for "leave without pay" (for record) while you are searching for new contract.

Folks - I am very confussed from morning. I work as a contractor and i came to know today that my current assignment will not be extended next year. My employer is a blood sucking consulting firm. My h1b is expiring may 2012. I was thinking to apply extn this novemember but today due to my contract issue i am not sure if i need to tell this to my employer or not. I find the project and he gets the money. what if i become current in Novemember then he will make issues to apply i485.

do you feel i have a chance to file my i1485 in Novemember. Will the dates move . please help me out

rahil1

09-20-2011, 04:34 PM

apan current ho gaya... if not GC I should be able to file 485 for my lovely wife

qblogfan

09-20-2011, 04:56 PM

Yes, I agree. Many Chinese Post-docs got their Phds in China and they had wife and kids when they came to USA. Most of these guys are doing EB2-NIW and they have to use 3 visa numbers for one NIW application.

On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.

suninphx

09-20-2011, 05:12 PM

Example

Mr. X has H1B Petition with an expiry date - 31 dec 2011 .
X travels to India and on his return to usa he receives I-94 card attached to his passport validates stay up to 31 oct 2011.
In this case X has to do one of the following
1. Filing for extension of H1b before 31 oct 2011
2. Travel out of USA and come back with new I-94 card valid 31 Dec 2011
3. Go to CBP office at Airport to extend the dates from oct 31st to Dec 31 2011 ( which is not encouraged by CBP nowadays)

So for extension of H1b also pls go with the latest I-94 date not with petition expiry date otherwise it is taken as unlawful stay after I-94 expiry

I would like to differ:

First of all the scenario you mentioned above is exact opposite than what OP said. OP has I94 date > than petition expiry date. So what I said in that case still stands. If he delays filing based on I94 date then OP will not able to work. Its petition based on which one is authorized to work and not I94.
Even in the scenario you mentioned we can just file for extension of status(not not necessarilty H1 extension). I am sure you know that H1 extension and extension of status are two different things.

qblogfan

09-20-2011, 05:22 PM

The Japs and Koreans also have English barrier. I think the Chinese EB2 have a larger portion of NIW applicants and these guys came to USA in their late 20s and 30s. The Japanese don't immigrate to the US too much because the salary here is lower than in Japan. The South Korean salary is lower than Japanese and the expense is very high in Seoul.

Most of the Chinese immigrants came here through Family Based and Political Refugee paths. The EB number is only around 10%-20% of the total number. Many Chinese came here through political refugee by humilating motherland and cheating Uncle Sam. The smart hard working ones have to wait for too long and they tend to return home.

English barrier prevents them from entering the workforce right away as compared to the headstart Indian/filipino have over English.
Japs and Koreans strangely enter workforce right away more so than chinese....i cant seem to explain that...:confused:

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 06:09 PM

I would like to differ:

First of all the scenario you mentioned above is exact opposite than what OP said. OP has I94 date > than petition expiry date. So what I said in that case still stands. If he delays filing based on I94 date then OP will not able to work. Its petition based on which one is authorized to work and not I94.
Even in the scenario you mentioned we can just file for extension of status(not not necessarilty H1 extension). I am sure you know that H1 extension and extension of status are two different things.

My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.

Thanks all for the replies. So I need to apply before March 2012 as the VISA stamp in the passport says March 2012, regardless of the I94 date.

suninphx

I am referring to the above posts where it is mentioned that Visa Stamp on the passport is expiring in March 2012 .
He/She never mentioned about his H1b approval notice Form I- 797 expiry date.

Case 1

I-94 card expiry date < I 797 expiry date

This is a case where the period of stay is intentionally reduced by the immigration officer ( they usually do this in random). Here H1b should be renewed before I-94 card expiry

Case 2

I-94 card expiry date > I 797 expiry date .
These cases are less than 1% , due to human error , which we should be aware of and get corrected at once or renew the H1b as per I797 expiry date .

benjiding

09-20-2011, 06:15 PM

suninphx

I am referring to the above posts where it is mentioned that Visa Stamp on the passport is expiring in March 2012 .
He/She never mentioned about his H1b approval notice Form I- 797 expiry date.
Case 2

I-94 card expiry date < I 797 expiry date

This is a case where the period of stay is intentionally reduced by the immigration officer ( they usually do this in random). Here H1b should be renewed before I-94 card expiry

Case 2
I-94 card expiry date > I 797 expiry date .
These cases are less than 1% , due to human error , which we should be aware of and get corrected at once or renew the H1b as per I797 expiry date .

The date on I797 is the date on my VISA in passport, and at the port of entry, the IO stamped a later date. So I am Case 2. First let me state that this happens quite often, they accumulate your stay abroad and add it towards the end of your H1 period. So if you stay 6 months in India during your H1 period, then you can claim those 6months. This is what has happened in my case.

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 06:38 PM

Benjiding
They usually add the period spent outside USA in the I 797 at USCIS only. This is the first time i am hearing this kind of adding in the I-94 at Immigration counter.

You should consult an attorney.

indiaeb2

09-20-2011, 07:19 PM

Ssvp22 ..Thanks for correcting. I just want to put down my feelings and get some suggestion. Did not work on my spelling. My pd is Aug 6th 2007 EB2

indiaeb2

09-20-2011, 07:21 PM

Thanks Soggadu for understanding my situvation. my pd is 6th Aug 2007 eb2 india.

indiaeb2

09-20-2011, 07:24 PM

Thank Nishant_imt for your suggestion. I think the only option for me is to talk to my employer and see if wont create any mess with my h1 or 485 paper work. My pd is 6th aug 2007

suninphx

09-20-2011, 07:28 PM

suninphx

I am referring to the above posts where it is mentioned that Visa Stamp on the passport is expiring in March 2012 .
He/She never mentioned about his H1b approval notice Form I- 797 expiry date.

Case 1

I-94 card expiry date < I 797 expiry date

This is a case where the period of stay is intentionally reduced by the immigration officer ( they usually do this in random). Here H1b should be renewed before I-94 card expiry
A
Case 2

I-94 card expiry date > I 797 expiry date .
These cases are less than 1% , due to human error , which we should be aware of and get corrected at once or renew the H1b as per I797 expiry date .

You are mixing things. The expiry date on I797 is date till he can work (and that's what is imp. On H1) and he has to extend his petition before that date(with I129 form this is generally called H1 extetion.). In this case you get new I797 and new I94 with expiry date of new I797.
In Case 1: One can just extend the status (using I539) form using exiting I797. In this case you get new I94 with expiry date of exiting I797. So both are different things.

On H1 always always go by petition date because you are authorized to work till that date.
Anyway I rest my case here. I am sure OP is going to consult attorney. :)

suninphx

09-20-2011, 07:31 PM

Kanmani

09-20-2011, 08:02 PM

Suninphx

If I am not confusing you, I stand by my point.
In case 1 , the H1b should be extended before the I-94 card expires not before approval petition . So please dig more into this .

Again Form I-539 is for extension of H-4 or change of status from H1 to H4

You are mixing things. The expiry date on I797 is date till he can work (and that's what is imp. On H1) and he has to extend his petition before that date(with I129 form this is generally called H1 extetion.). In this case you get new I797 and new I94 with expiry date of new I797.
In Case 1: One can just extend the status (using I539) form using exiting I797. In this case you get new I94 with expiry date of exiting I797. So both are different things.

On H1 always always go by petition date because you are authorized to work till that date.
Anyway I rest my case here. I am sure OP is going to consult attorney. :)

PlainSpeak

09-20-2011, 08:04 PM

Agree with Kanmani. USCIS does that part.

Since there is so much confusion with whether petition or whether I94 has precendence and sinc you want to be safe and not sorry go with the one which has the earliest date which would be the petition. That way if you were wrong there is no harm done. On the other hand if you go with I94 and if by chance you were wrong you would be 3 months out of status. Why take risk ??

suninphx

09-20-2011, 08:56 PM

Suninphx

If I am not confusing you, I stand by my point.
In case 1 , the H1b should be extended before the I-94 card expires not before approval petition . So please dig more into this .

Again Form I-539 is for extension of H-4 or change of status from H1 to H4

I am not confused at all. If you check your previous posts you have changed your stance. And if you dig more you will know that I539 is used to change/extend status between various visa statuses (and not ONLY tied to H1/H4 as you mentioned). Check with your lawyer if that helps you.

suninphx

09-20-2011, 09:03 PM

Suninphx

If I am not confusing you, I stand by my point.
In case 1 , the H1b should be extended before the I-94 card expires not before approval petition . So please dig more into this .

Again Form I-539 is for extension of H-4 or change of status from H1 to H4

Again H1 extension ( as in filing extension petition on I129 form ) and filing for extension of status(I539) are two different things. Let me take same example as you:

Let say pettion is valid till Dec 2011 and I94 till Oct 2011. Then Mr.X can file extension of status on I539 form using existing I797 and USCIS will give him I94 till DEC 2011.

ssvp22

09-20-2011, 09:05 PM

Ssvp22 ..Thanks for correcting. I just want to put down my feelings and get some suggestion. Did not work on my spelling. My pd is Aug 6th 2007 EB2

Excuse me if you felt bad about it. Personally, i myself do quite a few typos. But over the years i have learnt to check again and again to make sure there are no mistakes. Just wanted to point out the same to fellow immigrant friend. In my opinion, typos are like choosing bad employers, and you need to avoid both.

As for your PD, i guess majority guesstimate is that we should cross that date next month.

suninphx

09-20-2011, 09:07 PM

Since there is so much confusion with whether petition or whether I94 has precendence and sinc you want to be safe and not sorry go with the one which has the earliest date which would be the petition. That way if you were wrong there is no harm done. On the other hand if you go with I94 and if by chance you were wrong you would be 3 months out of status. Why take risk ??

H1 being work visa - approved petition date is what matters and not I94 date. I94 does not authorize you to work.
Having said that there is no harm in going by earliest date as PlainSpeak suggested.

ssvp22

09-21-2011, 06:38 AM

Can anyone please let me know how soon can one get EAD after filing 485. Also, once you have EAD in hand, can one's spouse start working using the EAD. If yes, what happens to his/her H1-B status, on which he/she were working on earlier.

qesehmk

09-21-2011, 06:43 AM

You (and spouse) are eligible to get one immediately after filing 485. Expect a couple of months to get it. Yes spouse can use EAD but it is advised to continue using H1 if you already have H1 - the reason being if 485 gets denied for whatever reason, EAD no longer remains valid.

That's my understanding. Pls check w your lawyer.

Can anyone please let me know how soon can one get EAD after filing 485. Also, once you have EAD in hand, can one's spouse start working using the EAD. If yes, what happens to his/her H1-B status, on which he/she were working on earlier.

ssvp22

09-21-2011, 07:57 AM

Spectator

09-21-2011, 09:00 AM

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ has been updated with the July 2011 figures.

soggadu

09-21-2011, 10:22 AM

You (and spouse) are eligible to get one immediately after filing 485. Expect a couple of months to get it. Yes spouse can use EAD but it is advised to continue using H1 if you already have H1 - the reason being if 485 gets denied for whatever reason, EAD no longer remains valid.

That's my understanding. Pls check w your lawyer.

Q... Is this scenario true when you are on H1 extension also? Had this question for long time...

MeraNoAayega

09-21-2011, 10:23 AM

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ has been updated with the July 2011 figures.

I will wait until the new I-485 inventory which should be out sometime in october...

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 10:42 AM

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ has been updated with the July 2011 figures.

Spec thanks for posting. The number of completions has come down in Jul probably because the IO's were busy with I485 approvals thanks to the huge movement for the Jul VB. But the backlog is at a significantly higher level for I140, whenever they get on top of it the SOFAD will come down, the backlog is atleast higher by 10K when compared to corresponding time periods last year. Since Aug and Sep would have seen leaner approvals of 485 it will be interesting to see the backlog figures for Aug and Sep.

smuggymba

09-21-2011, 10:46 AM

hiTK,

Can you give us a number where we will be on Sep 2012, 2013 and 2014 assuming SOFAD levels are same and Infosys, CTS doesn' file too many EB1-C's for consultants and analysts.

qesehmk

09-21-2011, 10:49 AM

soggadu - yes. Always a good idea to keep on H1.

Q... Is this scenario true when you are on H1 extension also? Had this question for long time...

nishant2200

09-21-2011, 11:28 AM

natvyas

09-21-2011, 11:33 AM

In light of the movement of the COD to July in the last bulletin how will USCIS know the inventory (assuming they use the documentarily qualified statistics to calculate invenotry) they have built up in 1 month (before the next VB).

nishant2200

09-21-2011, 11:41 AM

In light of the movement of the COD to July in the last bulletin how will USCIS know how much inventory (assuming they use the documentarily qualified statistics to calculate invenotry) have built up in 1 month (before the next VB).

I am guessing that they have setup a mechanism with USCIS, where in USCIS will report to them number of new incoming I-485 aplications for EB2 I/C. The I-485 form has on the first page a box for USCIS use only, which has a box for filling out applicable law (family, asylum, employment etc) , Preference (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5 etc) and country chargeable, and so on kind of identifying information as to what bucket it goes into. So the upfront work for USCIS might be to at least have this box area filled out for incoming I-485 applications in October, and report that to DOS. Maybe they can make it part of their application receipting process to streamline that, maybe they already do.

Now people can only file when October begins and can continue to do so until October 31st (and later if the dates remain current), and they have to release next VB on October 10th around I am guessing, so I think for the next VB at least, they wouldn't wait for the final figures for new I-485, but for the VB after that, they would have some knowledge, which in this case would be only PWMB, and would be a false positive that only few I-485s were obtained, and who knows, that may encourage them to move more in the third bulletin. Just thinking here aloud.

ssvp22

09-21-2011, 11:52 AM

I am guessing that they have setup a mechanism with USCIS, where in USCIS will report to them number of new incoming I-485 aplications for EB2 I/C. The I-485 form has on the first page a box for USCIS use only, which has a box for filling out applicable law (family, asylum, employment etc) , Preference (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5 etc) and country chargeable, and so on kind of identifying information as to what bucket it goes into. So the upfront work for USCIS might be to at least have this box area filled out for incoming I-485 applications in October, and report that to DOS. Maybe they can make it part of their application receipting process to streamline that, maybe they already do.

Now people can only file when October begins and can continue to do so until October 31st (and later if the dates remain current), and they have to release next VB on October 10th around I am guessing, so I think for the next VB at least, they wouldn't wait for the final figures for new I-485, but for the VB after that, they would have some knowledge, which in this case would be only PWMB, and would be a false positive that only few I-485s were obtained, and who knows, that may encourage them to move more in the third bulletin. Just thinking here aloud.

Going by this month and above reasoning, Q's theory earlier(pipeline buildup), i think we should see movement for next 2 months. Can anyone lookup the numbers as to what would be exact number of visa numbers needed for another 4 months of movement, which is what can potentially happen comparing to FB scenario of last year.

nishant2200

09-21-2011, 11:57 AM

Going by this month and above reasoning, Q's theory earlier(pipeline buildup), i think we should see movement for next 2 months. Can anyone lookup the numbers as to what would be exact number of visa numbers needed for another 4 months of movement, which is what can potentially happen comparing to FB scenario of last year.

I think the idea is reverse, if we do n number of months of movement, how much visa numbers would we have to provide, that's what DOS is trying to gauge. The n number of months of movement, what they are basing on currently, we don't know.

I do not want to step onto Spec's toes, with all credit to him (and Veni, and all other number crunching gurus), with calculations he is working on and will provide to us all sometime now, that number is around 9,600 for 4 months onwards from 15th July 2007.

bieber

09-21-2011, 12:08 PM

Teddy, Nishanth

Nothing changed siginificantly in 140 data from June to July, pending number remained same with new receipts almost same as previous month.

Perm numbers were heavy in May and June, so the EB2 ROW must have used more 485 numbers than EB1 in August and September

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 12:48 PM

Teddy, ideally the figures for Aug and Sep should indicate backlog reduction, and hence the one to one mapping between that and the sudden surprise increased demand for EB1/EB2ROW for Aug and Sep by USCIS to DOS. So the statement that "the backlog is atleast higher by 10K when compared to corresponding time periods last year." might have the "10k" reduced hopefully when we look at the September figure finally for corresponding September of last year.

Nishant I have a slightly different take on this. At the time of the Aug VB this revelation about sudden demand came up, this must be a function of high approval rates in the previous months, now there is a time lag in filing 485. If we look at the trend May and Jun saw 9-9.5K approvals so the 485's corresponding to these would have hit in Aug assuming the 485 filing takes 2 months on an average, unlike us (Retrogressed Folks), people who are current are in no apparent rush to file. Now the backlog is a function of completions and new demand coming up as well as completions. It seems that the completions have declined and so has the new demand but the reduction is only 5K from the peak and we are still higher by 10K from the normal levels of last year. It could be generalized that the 5K reduction caused a complete loss of SOFAD for Aug & Sep. So another 10K reduction in backlog when it hits the 485 queue will have a significant impact. Now if the 10K reduction in backlog comes by gradually or in a span of say 2 months and it is matched by a higher number of completions it’s ok, if the completions are high and the backlog still stays where it is that means the new demand is heavy. I have a feeling that since the 485 workload was lower this year in Aug and Sep they will try to reduce the 140 backlog at a faster pace and we will see the backlog down and completions higher. Also the backlog may be richer for EB1 thanks to the Kazarian memo, because its only the rate of approval that slowed down there is no evidence to suggest that the demand itself came down. If we assume that even 4K out of the 10K is EB1 + EB2 ROW then reducing that this year could mean ~ 10K less SOFAD which could be very significant. Backlog reduction will happen at some point in time, the agencies will go for it because they would want to show better performance statistics, it definitely hurts SOFAD very badly. Lets hope for the best.

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 12:50 PM

hiTK,

Can you give us a number where we will be on Sep 2012, 2013 and 2014 assuming SOFAD levels are same and Infosys, CTS doesn' file too many EB1-C's for consultants and analysts.

Normally we should work 1 year at a time. At high level if we assume 25K SOFAD coming our way things would look as follows Ball Park.

Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007
Sep 2013 - Oct - Nov 2008
Sep 2014 - Mid 2010

The EB2 Trend is 4-5 years. After late 2008 the demand thins out because that was peak of recession time.

smuggymba

09-21-2011, 12:56 PM

Normally we should work 1 year at a time. At high level if we assume 25K SOFAD coming our way things would look as follows Ball Park.

Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007
Sep 2013 - Oct - Nov 2008
Sep 2014 - Mid 2010
The EB2 Trend is 4-5 years. After late 2008 the demand thins out because that was peak of recession time.

did you mean Mid 2009 or 2010 in Sep 2014?

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 01:08 PM

did you mean Mid 2009 or 2010 in Sep 2014?

My apologies for the mistyping its Mid 2010 for Sep 2014. I just edited the posts.

RMS_V13

09-21-2011, 01:10 PM

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 01:23 PM

Teddy (with due respect)

Are you implying that the demand is much greater for late 2007-2008 than 2006 or 2005?

We may not know exactly the prospective numbers waiting to file I 485.

What we do know for a fact is that historically, the PD has moved 1.5 years every FY.

Honestly, did you expect the kind of movement this past year?

Yes I do believe that the demand is slightly heavier than 2006, its double of 2005 (That year was a breeze). The movement in terms of years is just a statistic. For example we can guesstimate that SOFAD was ~ 30K but movement was 11 months, however he previous year the SOFAD was 26.5K but movement was 16 months. So the movement in terms of months does not reflect the correct picture. At the beginning of 2011 based on the Trackitt trend I had predicted the Mar - Apr range but yes the overall movement was beyond expectations. Your post is very polite we are having a good discussion, I will be happy to answer.

sandeep11

09-21-2011, 01:29 PM

Teddy, can you elaborate a bit on the below:

Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007 - Does this mean that there is a chance for people with PD between Oct - Nov 2007 will get the GC by Sep 2012 or will they get a chance to only file for 485?

Normally we should work 1 year at a time. At high level if we assume 25K SOFAD coming our way things would look as follows Ball Park.

Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007
Sep 2013 - Oct - Nov 2008
Sep 2014 - Mid 2010

The EB2 Trend is 4-5 years. After late 2008 the demand thins out because that was peak of recession time.

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 01:52 PM

Teddy, can you elaborate a bit on the below:

Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007 - Does this mean that there is a chance for people with PD between Oct - Nov 2007 will get the GC by Sep 2012 or will they get a chance to only file for 485?

I believe anyone within 2007 has a good chance of filing 485. GC issuance range could be around Oct - 2007. Its early days lets see the approval trend in Q1 2012.

suninphx

09-21-2011, 02:16 PM

My apologies for the mistyping its Mid 2010 for Sep 2014. I just edited the posts.
Where is my 2009? :)

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 02:19 PM

Where is my 2009? :)

Things will move really fast once we cross Sep 2008, after that it may take a year to reach mid 2010 itself so 2009 is not on the map :). Just like cyclones and hurricanes change their path this map will change its going to be a long ride.

ragx08

09-21-2011, 03:20 PM

TeddyKoochu

09-21-2011, 03:29 PM

T,
I understand that all these calculations post Aug 07 are based on the PERM and I140 data. But during the 2008/2009 period, a lot of body-shoppers came under the radar and most of them had to forcefully terminate the employees who are on bench. Also there were a lot of layoffs and whatever jobs up for grab did not want to hire H1Bs. Add to that the Banking & Auto sectors that got federal aid with a clause that they cannot hire H1Bs..... etc. As a result, there could be a few - if not significant number of PERM & I140s that were deserted.

Is there anyway to know how much of all this impacts these calculations?

You are right; this point has come up before as well. Right now atleast in the Oct bulletin we see that they are taking up new demand gradually. So hopefully the process itself will take care of these scenarios. Really no one knows how many people had to go back, the impact of the recession and memo's has been severe but our sample set is restricted to those who had filed a perm and 140. Now if the 140 is approved and even if the person went back they can come back and reclaim the PD. So lets go on this journey a year at a time, making projections that far with too many unknowns will not be accurate / realistic. The biggest unknown of all is that will the SOFAD momentum continue because if it diminishes the whole thing breaks down. Already we have seen that significant efforts are going on to pump up Eb5.

Chilli19

09-21-2011, 03:31 PM

Please delete if not appropriate or has been posted before.
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html

Monica,

I have posted this immigration info news letter few pages back.

sandeep11

09-21-2011, 03:45 PM

I believe anyone within 2007 has a good chance of filing 485. GC issuance range could be around Oct - 2007. Its early days lets see the approval trend in Q1 2012.

Thanks Teddy.

kd2008

09-21-2011, 05:28 PM

A few years ago, the CIS Ombudsman in its annual report scolded USCIS for not tracking and processing Family-based applications which then resulted in visa-wastage as DOS did not move the dates far enough ahead.

Knowing this history, I would be surprised if DOS doesn't get aggressive in moving dates for EB2IC and then retrogressing if they have to. They have done so with family based F2 categories.

Now the question is how aggressive will they get. To be honest, I would rather have them move it steadily till they have 2 yrs worth of applications (roughly 60K - even then I won't be current) and then retrogress or make it 'U' for unavailable. And keep repeating every year so they always have 60K in the bank.

I appreciate USCIS's improved efficiency in processing I-485, but still it has no skills when it comes to managing/forcasting demand based on I-140 approvals - which is pathetic by the way.

I know this is wishful thinking and DOS and USCIS will still continue to amaze us with their erratic behavior but I just had to vent.

qesehmk

09-21-2011, 05:32 PM

Friends, if you would like to - please vote to select a good charity. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made

We will donate from this site's revenue to the charity majority of YOU vote for.

ragx08

09-21-2011, 05:54 PM

Voted for Kiva. Personally I think helping these small/poor enterprenuers will create jobs that result in feeding multiple poor families while still maintaining their dignity!

nishant2200

09-21-2011, 06:01 PM

kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too :)

On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.

A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.

A few years ago, the CIS Ombudsman in its annual report scolded USCIS for not tracking and processing Family-based applications which then resulted in visa-wastage as DOS did not move the dates far enough ahead.

Knowing this history, I would be surprised if DOS doesn't get aggressive in moving dates for EB2IC and then retrogressing if they have to. They have done so with family based F2 categories.

Now the question is how aggressive will they get. To be honest, I would rather have them move it steadily till they have 2 yrs worth of applications (roughly 60K - even then I won't be current) and then retrogress or make it 'U' for unavailable. And keep repeating every year so they always have 60K in the bank.

I appreciate USCIS's improved efficiency in processing I-485, but still it has no skills when it comes to managing/forcasting demand based on I-140 approvals - which is pathetic by the way.

I know this is wishful thinking and DOS and USCIS will still continue to amaze us with their erratic behavior but I just had to vent.

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 09:42 AM

I think Mr.CO will use the same method he used on F2 last year.

I think he will keep moving the dates forward in Q1 and then retrogress in January.

The only question is how much demand he wants and how big steps he will move the future PDs.

kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too :)

On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.

A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.

grnwtg

09-22-2011, 10:22 AM

I agree with you Nishant, if DOS keeps on moving dates till January, infopasses with be flooded with requests when actually they cannot give visas.
Still i Don't understand one logic, if they need atleast 6-9 months for processing an 485 application why they dont take applications in the amount of 30k to 4k?. People have chance to filing EAD few months a head and uscis will not be pressurized. Apart from it they can monitor number of EB1 applications.
If they go by quarter wise, suppose if there is huge volume of EB1 application in last quarter, then probably all them will not be able to get their GC's or else some visas might even get wasted.

kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too :)

On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.

A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.

Spectator

09-22-2011, 10:24 AM

Spec, we are all eagerly waiting but will be patient... Enjoy your vacation :)
For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

Monica12

09-22-2011, 10:40 AM

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).
Oh Great ! Thanks Spec :D
after going through it.. All I can say is " BRAVO!" *clap clap*

gc_usa

09-22-2011, 11:06 AM

If DOS does qtr spill over then they will have 5.6k ( regular IC quota ) + 2-3k spill over from Eb1 and 1.5k from EB5 , which should be enough to move date where ever they want in 2008. I personally believe that DOS will not go very tight in creating buffer. They will make at least 1.25 to 1.5 times than sofad for this year. because if they don't move date enough then uscis may waste visas, if they go too much further in 2008 then uscis may random approves cases and next year it will be hard to manage date for DOS.

If SOFAD was 25k this year then DOS will at least create 30k-40k buffer. which should be mid 2008 to fall 2008. There is no evidence for NVC receipt beyond July - Sep 2008.

also 6 months ago they sent notices up to Nov 2007 so in coming bulletin date will go from Nov 2007 - March 2008.

vizcard

09-22-2011, 11:22 AM

needid

09-22-2011, 11:43 AM

Great projection. Thanks for your effort, With Oct 2007 PD, I hope/wish I'll fall under FY 2012.

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

MeraNoAayega

09-22-2011, 11:44 AM

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 12:11 PM

agree, if this year's SOFAD is 25k, then they have to get 30k-35k at least because not all of the submitted cases can be approved before next summer. Some of the submitted cases can be audited or RFEed or denied. I think they have to get 30k at least, in order to stay on the safe side.

If DOS does qtr spill over then they will have 5.6k ( regular IC quota ) + 2-3k spill over from Eb1 and 1.5k from EB5 , which should be enough to move date where ever they want in 2008. I personally believe that DOS will not go very tight in creating buffer. They will make at least 1.25 to 1.5 times than sofad for this year. because if they don't move date enough then uscis may waste visas, if they go too much further in 2008 then uscis may random approves cases and next year it will be hard to manage date for DOS.

If SOFAD was 25k this year then DOS will at least create 30k-40k buffer. which should be mid 2008 to fall 2008. There is no evidence for NVC receipt beyond July - Sep 2008.

also 6 months ago they sent notices up to Nov 2007 so in coming bulletin date will go from Nov 2007 - March 2008.

polapragada

09-22-2011, 12:12 PM

Visas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....:D

That is because they have the enough pre approved cases before "SO" starts;)

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 12:13 PM

The reason why they didn't waste any visa is because of the 98k EB2 C&I inventory built in 2007.

From 2007 summer to this summer, I think more than 90k EB2 C&I have been approved and 8k are pending.

Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
C Approved 8000 6,505 3,045 6,964 6,797
I Approved 18000 19,961 10,106 14,818 6,203
2011 data was estimated.

If they don't have a huge inventory, it will be difficult to control the flow.

In 2007 they built this massive 98k inventory, this year they need to build at least 30k-40k inventory.

According to an analysis on MITBBS, currently there are 12k EB-2C and 81k EB-2I waiting for 485 submission. The total potential is 93k.

Visas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....:D

polapragada

09-22-2011, 12:16 PM

RMS_V13

09-22-2011, 12:27 PM

qblogfan : So disappointed to read this :(

Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 12:32 PM

From Aug 2007 to Q3 of 2011. One guy analyzed the number of EB2 applicants who haven't submitted 485 yet.

From FY 2007 to FY 2011, totally around 90k cases (most of cases are from FY 2004-FY 2007) have been approved and 8k are pending.

The potential demand of 93k need four fiscal years to approve if the approval rate is constant.

qblogfan : So disappointed to read this :(

Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?

RMS_V13

09-22-2011, 12:37 PM

Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

srimurthy

09-22-2011, 12:40 PM

What was the denial rate we were looking at for PERM when calculating the data?
I was just running through the MDB for 2011 from FLD DataCenter and found that 9000 were in denied state of the total 60K. thats around 15%.

RRRRRR

09-22-2011, 12:47 PM

Thanks for laying it out, appreciate your efforts and time well spent on this.

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 12:50 PM

I don't know the exact number and I don't want to mislead you.

My personal opinion is around 40k. Again, I don't have accurate information, just for your reference.

Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 12:53 PM

Your charts are so impressive! I admire your math ability and analysis!

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

srimurthy

09-22-2011, 12:56 PM

familyguy

09-22-2011, 12:57 PM

Very impressive..

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

visagcinfo

09-22-2011, 12:58 PM

When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?

iamdeb

09-22-2011, 01:12 PM

Spectator

09-22-2011, 01:20 PM

When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?visagcinfo,

If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.

qesehmk

09-22-2011, 01:34 PM

Spec

you tables are fantastic and easy to follow. The color coding very easily leads people to understand the best case worst case and average case scenario. Props to you!!

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

sha_kus

09-22-2011, 01:34 PM

Awesome Spec ... very good insight.... bravo..

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

nostwal

09-22-2011, 01:50 PM

When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks

ssvp22

09-22-2011, 02:00 PM

When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks

Looks like 2013.

nostwal

09-22-2011, 02:08 PM

Thanks SSVP22. Man this is crazy how much time we got to wait for the Green Card. Hope some reform gets passed in near future.

visagcinfo

09-22-2011, 02:25 PM

Thanks Spec.
I guess that is when we know for sure/see it in writing if all the visa numbers were used or any wasted.

visagcinfo,

If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.

rahil1

09-22-2011, 02:58 PM

I am going to be current October but since the spill over is not going start till may, is there a chance of me getting GC before that?

bieber

09-22-2011, 03:09 PM

soggadu

09-22-2011, 03:37 PM

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

mehhh... they are ok... not bad... you can do better spec...

(wink)i am trying to down play so that spec will come up with same excellent performance every time, this is how our client treats my offshore team...ssshhhh...keep it a secret...(wink)(wink)

hmm..hmm... yes, please keep them coming...we will see...

Monica12

09-22-2011, 03:55 PM

Soggadu, you are funny as hell :) Taking the pangaa with the Great the Spec ( sorry, couldn't resist...I'm a big fan of ZNMD)

Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you go back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas available in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals in Oct and Nov ( if dates don't retrogress in Nov).
Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen (q1 /q2 or we have to wait till q3/q4)?

rahil1

09-22-2011, 03:58 PM

Soggadu, you are funny as hell :)
Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas availabel in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals.
Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen?

For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife

Monica12

09-22-2011, 04:08 PM

For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife
Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.

nishant2200

09-22-2011, 04:21 PM

Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.

Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

ssvp22

09-22-2011, 04:31 PM

Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

Monica12

09-22-2011, 04:37 PM

Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. From this statement, it means that the date movement will depend on the visa supply, which we know is not much. What's your take on this statement?

Monica12

09-22-2011, 04:40 PM

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?
ssvp, what I would do is make an appointment for the medicals and cancel it later if dates dont get current. There is no charge if you cancel the appointment but you dont want to miss an appointment also if dates become current. So, nevertheless make the appointment.

qesehmk

09-22-2011, 04:48 PM

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. What's your take on this statement?

qblogfan

09-22-2011, 04:55 PM

agree, I think they may not approve all the cases that are current.

It's possible that they will approve only several hunderds next month.

I don't think he will approve 6000 next month.

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

Monica12

09-22-2011, 05:00 PM

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.
Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

qesehmk

09-22-2011, 05:21 PM

Whoever made that statement (murthy?) basically recycled the oft repeated statement from DoS website rather than paying attention to the more relevant CO
statement in latest VB.

Lets cross fingers for people post Jul 2007.

Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

Dojoapril

09-22-2011, 05:22 PM

Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

10102007

09-22-2011, 07:38 PM

Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

Perhaps you should spell it Good Carma=GC.

GhostWriter

09-22-2011, 08:55 PM

First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).

venkat

09-22-2011, 09:34 PM

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

veni001

09-22-2011, 10:38 PM

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf

It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

gc_usa

09-23-2011, 07:35 AM

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

gc_usa

09-23-2011, 07:37 AM

venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?

PlainSpeak

09-23-2011, 07:38 AM

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

gc_usa

09-23-2011, 07:58 AM

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

I was thinking to do medical ahead of time but I don't think it will make a huge difference if I do now or later when date is current. So many people got medical done when July 2007 gate was open. We don't have any chance for gate opening again and we get close to 3 week before date becoming current. so that should be fine.

qesehmk

09-23-2011, 08:02 AM

gc_usa, assuming that your company is able to retain your PD; your time to GC won't be affected too much .... may be GC through new company will be delayed by 6-12 months max (assuming they are efficient).

When people generally don't take the route of job switch, they should do it out of the risk of new application, rather than the delay in time-to-get-GC. For Jan 2008, I think in 2012 you have a good chance of at least filing 485. 50% of actually getting the GC in hand.

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

I would agree PlainSpeak. You are right here.

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?
EB2IC dates haven't moved ahead enough to warrant a retro yet. For the secondquestion please see the answer to Gc_USA.

gc_usa

09-23-2011, 08:09 AM

qesehmk

09-23-2011, 08:14 AM

I mean Sep 2012. Regarding timing of intake, I have always maintained that they must generate demand before end of Q2. i.e mar 2012. With the October bullletin CO showed an appetite to take in fresh demand even earlier. Nobody knows exactly when they will do it. But in next 1-5 months for sure they must take all the cases they think will be able to process in 2012.

My "judgement" is that Jan 2008 should scrape through.

Thanks Q

When you say 2012 means before Sep 2012 or Dec 2012 ? I mean I would get a chance in upcoming bulletin which are going to generate demand ? or Deep later in 2012 like Nov 2012 where DOS will try to generate demand for 2013 ?

rahil1

09-23-2011, 08:54 AM

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

My priority is may 2 2007. I will be current in October.I applied 485 in 2007. I was asking about my chances of getting GC in next month or so..

qesehmk

09-23-2011, 09:02 AM

Sorry - I misread. For a normal case without any "locha" it should be a matter of days and weeks.

My priority is may 2 2007. I will be current in October.I applied 485 in 2007. I was asking about my chances of getting GC in next month or so..

rahil1

09-23-2011, 09:25 AM

Sorry - I misread. For a normal case without any "locha" it should be a matter of days and weeks.

thanks you Q. Hope you are right...

iamdeb

09-23-2011, 09:35 AM

News from Murthy

1. Visa Number Limit Reached for FY11

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) issued an announcement dated September 15, 2011 stating that all employment-based (EB) visa numbers for fiscal year 2011 (FY11) have been utilized. This means that no more immigrant visa numbers are available in the EB categories until October 1, 2011. This does not prevent qualified applicants from filing for adjustment of status to permanent residence under the cutoff dates in the September 2011 Visa Bulletin, valid through the end of September.

No Cause for Alarm: Reaching Annual Limits is the Goal

The DOS announcement is not a cause for alarm. It simply means that the EB immigrant visa numbers for FY11 have been depleted. FY11 ends on September 30, 2011. It is normal for the numbers to run out prior to the end of the fiscal year. It is the goal of the DOS to establish cutoff dates in a manner that will minimize any waste of immigrant visa numbers by having a surplus at the end of the year. (Unused immigrant visa numbers do not automatically roll over to the next fiscal year.) This goal has to be balanced against certain limitations on the immigrant numbers that can be used during the first three quarters of the fiscal year and the goal of having numbers available throughout that twelve-month period.

Lack of Available EB Numbers Impacts GC Approvals

With no available EB immigrant visa numbers, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will be unable to approve additional EB I-485 ("green card") cases in September 2011. In order to issue an approval of an I-485, there must be a visa number available. These immigrant visa numbers are issued by the DOS, and the September 15th, 2011 announcement makes it clear that no more visa numbers are available for FY11. Some individuals still may receive approval notices for their I-485s after September 15th, 2011, as there is a slight delay between the approval and transmission of the notice.

I-485 Adjustment Applications may be Filed

The lack of visa numbers does not have an impact on the eligibility to file I-485 cases under the September 2011 Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin remain valid until the end of the month, permitting the filing of I-485s, even if the actual visa numbers are not immediately available.

FY2012 Begins October 1, 2011

New EB visa numbers will become available on October 1, 2011. This is reflected in the October Visa Bulletin, discussed in our September 16, 2011 NewsBrief, October 2011 Visa Bulletin: Forward Movement for EB2 India / China. The USCIS can continue to process I-485 applications and request visa numbers from the DOS. Those requests will simply be held by the DOS in a pending capacity. Visa numbers will be issued for these cases as visa numbers become available beginning Monday, October 3, 2011 - the first business day of the month. We would expect that approval notices will start to arrive a few days later. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers will be updated on important matters related to the visa bulletin and availability of visa numbers.

evoori

09-23-2011, 09:52 AM

Need little help. People here are saying that DOS did this pipeline building last year for FB too. I am trying to find how long they took to build this pipeline. I compiled the data for Oct 2007 to May 2011. Looking into this what are your thoughts on how long will DOS take to build the pipeline ?

kolugc

09-23-2011, 10:03 AM

What I understand so far is, most likely by end of

2012 Sept - PD dates will move through Jan - Mar 2008
2012 Oct - PD dates will move through Feb - May 2008 (if they start taking in fresh cases to build the pipeline as they did this Oct 2011)

Please correct me If I am wrong, this is assuming if everything goes normal....

evoori

09-23-2011, 10:14 AM

I think it should be 2008..

What I understand so far is, most likely by end of

2012 Sept - PD dates will move through Jan - Mar 2012
2012 Oct - PD dates will move through Feb - May 2012 (if they start taking in fresh cases to build the pipeline as they did this Oct 2011)

Please correct me If I am wrong, this is assuming if everything goes normal....

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 10:17 AM

TeddyKoochu

09-23-2011, 10:27 AM

This I also had pointed earlier.

My feeling is they can't hold the line for a very long time because they have at least 8k pre-adudicated apps already, n these folks will be tormenting :) CIS for status.

Next two VB should have movement it seems exactly like FB. How much no one can read their mind, but 3 months at a time is a gut feeling.

End of 2007 is really needed I feel.

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

druvraj

09-23-2011, 11:41 AM

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

srd4gc

09-23-2011, 11:41 AM

Teddy, very nicely laid out...thx

imdeng

09-23-2011, 12:13 PM

The numbers are not disappointing. This is from 07/07 till now. 93K EB2IC in 4 years is par for the course - less than 2K per months. The rate has been 2.5K per month for the PD period we are currently going through (mid to late 2007 ).

I am quite surprised about ONLY 12K EB2C after 07/07. If not for India claiming so much SOFAD, EB2C could have been current in a year or so - but because of EB2I, that is not going to happen for a long long time.

qblogfan : So disappointed to read this :(

Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?

TeddyKoochu

09-23-2011, 12:16 PM

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

I agree with you on the people who have abandoned their applications, no one knows for sure how many people, but yes if I do it by saying 2K per month instead of 2.5K I believe it would be fair to assume 500 dropouts in the month or do you feel that it could be more. The 500 PM would fall in your range, let’s all hope for the best.

gc_usa

09-23-2011, 12:24 PM

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

It is true that they don't want to waste visas and look bad when so much backlog. at the same time they may not want too much gate open so USCIS random approve I 485s. They can have at least 8k buffer like what they had this year from Sep to Oct and still they will be able to move on next oct - sep. I would say they will make intake of 35k - (12k on hand ) - 5k ( porting ) = 18k which should move date till Q1 2008.

When ? I guess sooner in next bulletin or dec bulletin.

Why ? If they keep doing small 3-4 months movement till Q2 , uscis will come up with some demand and it will be hard for them to satisfy them and uscis will force them to retro date.

In Nov they will move - Nov 2007 and in Dec they will move March 2008.

Kanmani

09-23-2011, 12:38 PM

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

Teddy I dont get the 12K demand upto July 15 07 . Can you pls explain?

TeddyKoochu

09-23-2011, 12:48 PM

Teddy I dont get the 12K demand upto July 15 07 . Can you pls explain?

Current demand data shows 8.5K, we would expect 3.5K PWMB's who became current to file in Oct to make it 12K.

suninphx

09-23-2011, 12:51 PM

I agree with you on the people who have abandoned their applications, no one knows for sure how many people, but yes if I do it by saying 2K per month instead of 2.5K I believe it would be fair to assume 500 dropouts in the month or do you feel that it could be more. The 500 PM would fall in your range, let’s all hope for the best.
Is it possible to put % of IT non IT PERMS? I believe at height of recession IT was least affected. Though I have 5-6 friends (my friends ...no friend of friend story here) in IT/NON-IT and went back during that period. Most of them do not have any intent to come back even if PD becomes current. And as i understand from them main reason for that is once you back back and work in BIG IT names in India you are generally put in managerial role and then coming back and hunting for job becomes difficult as you might loose touch with technology. )As far as I know there is much more demand for 'hands on' people than 'managers' in US.)
So it will be interesting to see how many actual filings will come out of 2008 PD.

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 01:09 PM

I was co-incidentally just talking to some gurus about this, and this is portion of the email:

About the drop out rate or reduction factors etc, a thought comes to mind.

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.

If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

An example: you are having a hard time, no project, or no pay stubs or
proper tax history for sometime, your family member someone in India
gets diagnosed with some sickness, and if you go visit, your H1 is
going to be screwed up by consulate.

Another example: simlar dire straits and need H1 extension.

Another example: A person going great guns in Cisco gets laid off, he
can't just go work somewhere else because he has no EAD.

Another example: similar dire straits and you see yourself getting
nice job in India with leadership role in a good city, chance to
re-unite with family, and start life afresh.

Is it possible to put % of IT non IT PERMS? I believe at height of recession IT was least affected. Though I have 5-6 friends (my friends ...no friend of friend story here) in IT/NON-IT and went back during that period. Most of them do not have any intent to come back even if PD becomes current. And as i understand from them main reason for that is once you back back and work in BIG IT names in India you are generally put in managerial role and then coming back and hunting for job becomes difficult as you might loose touch with technology. )As far as I know there is much more demand for 'hands on' people than 'managers' in US.)
So it will be interesting to see how many actual filings will come out of 2008 PD.

Spectator

09-23-2011, 01:16 PM

Current demand data shows 8.5K, we would expect 3.5K PWMB's who became current to file in Oct to make it 12K.Teddy,

Current Demand Data shows 8,075, but that is all the way to the end of the backlog (August 15th ish).

To July 15 07 it is more like 6k because July is very dense.

In the worst case, PWMB to July 15 07 I think could be as high as 2.5k, although I believe it is probably nearer 2k, so I would say about 8k in total.

Adding on any cases with PD before April 15 07 still to be approved would raise this figure, but 12k seems a bit pessimistic.

If you mean the Backlog & PWMB to the end of the current backlog, then I would put that at about 11.5k.

suninphx

09-23-2011, 01:20 PM

I was co-incidentally just talking to some gurus about this, and this is portion of the email:

About the drop out rate or reduction factors etc, a thought comes to mind.

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.

If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

An example: you are having a hard time, no project, or no pay stubs or
proper tax history for sometime, your family member someone in India
gets diagnosed with some sickness, and if you go visit, your H1 is
going to be screwed up by consulate.

Another example: simlar dire straits and need H1 extension.

Another example: A person going great guns in Cisco gets laid off, he
can't just go work somewhere else because he has no EAD.

Another example: similar dire straits and you see yourself getting
nice job in India with leadership role in a good city, chance to
re-unite with family, and start life afresh.

Agree.

EAD in hand was big differentiator.
Another point could be (I think this was mentioned earlier too) - even tough people managed to stay on H1 , they had change jobs ..starting PERM process all over

Pedro Gonzales

09-23-2011, 01:28 PM

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.
If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

TeddyKoochu

09-23-2011, 01:41 PM

Teddy,

Current Demand Data shows 8,075, but that is all the way to the end of the backlog (August 15th ish).

To July 15 07 it is more like 6k because July is very dense.

In the worst case, PWMB to July 15 07 I think could be as high as 2.5k, although I believe it is probably nearer 2k, so I would say about 8k in total.

Adding on any cases with PD before April 15 07 still to be approved would raise this figure, but 12k seems a bit pessimistic.

If you mean the Backlog & PWMB to the end of the current backlog, then I would put that at about 11.5k.

Spec, Thanks Actually the idea was to baseline the current point. Theoretically by PD we are at 15th Jul. The demand data also includes Jul and Aug filers who are not current. The PWMB totals have been estimated to be ~ 5k. So if we make 15-AUG as our baseline then the total should be 8K + 5K = 13K. Please advise your thoughts on that. I agree that Jul is rather heavy.

SmileBaba

09-23-2011, 02:14 PM

We don't want to get their secret information, but the fact is that the employer can refuse to provide any evidence of the completion of each step.

My employer didn't give me even one piece of paper as evidence of approval of PERM/140. I never got any copy of anything. When I ask, they always say it's company property and I don't have rights to ask for anything before 485.

Approved I140 is company's property and we are also their properties just like the slaves in 1800s. The employers put their feet on our face, but we can't argue or fight because our xxxxxxx is fasterned by GC. When we fight the employers with Kong Fu, our xxxxxx will be painful.

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

imdeng

09-23-2011, 02:22 PM

It will be interesting to see what the drop off rate is. We all have anecdotal evidence that this is at least material. I do agree that the drop off rate post 07/07 will be higher because of no EAD - we will know how high in a couple months. BTW - recession can even push up the PERM numbers since all the people who get laid off and join new jobs need to then go through the PERM process again.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 02:24 PM

Sounds reasonable, at least we can get some trend. btw the current PWMB estimate already assumes a drop-off, so thing to see would be is it even higher or lower. btw, it would be extremely sad right, first of all you missed the boat, and then had to go back also. heart-breaking.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 02:27 PM

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

qblogfan will help you out as needed, but I just want to point out that today itself murthy has put this article:
http://murthy.com/news/n_foiare.html
about FOIA

good luck smilebaba, I hope you smile a lot :)

sai999

09-23-2011, 02:33 PM

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

***** Spec i bow to your feet on the effort your doing to immigration community ***** what a fantastic job and you are my hero on the calculations.along the side so may thanks to Q,Teddy (also great guru on calculations),Monica12 ,Venni,Soggadu and nishant2200 (*** these days i am not able to find any page with out your message ) ...keep going guys all the best those got current and good luck to those waiting to file 485

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 02:41 PM

soggadu

09-23-2011, 03:02 PM

All the bills floating right now are just political posturing - I don't think anything will get passed until we are out of the recession and unemployment drops. This bill, although, will greatly help EB2IC if it passes. I really have no hope of legislative relief, no faith in the legislative system (Congress/Presidency) to take up our cause - we are too insignificant in their plans.

The best option for us is to keep our noses clean, hold on to our jobs, keep renewing your H1B (thank you AC21!) and wait until your date becomes current. Meanwhile, forums like this provide us with a semblance of transparency in the process. I know I sound pessimistic but that's where I am.

BTW - I don't wish to get politics in the discussion - but seems like Republicans are more of a friend of legal employment based immigration than Democrats are. It sucks that Republicans are also against almost every other issues of priority for me. No that it matters - I don't have a vote anyways.

+1....cant agree more...

Monica12

09-23-2011, 03:23 PM

Gclongwait

09-23-2011, 03:56 PM

Spec, Thanks Actually the idea was to baseline the current point. Theoretically by PD we are at 15th Jul. The demand data also includes Jul and Aug filers who are not current. The PWMB totals have been estimated to be ~ 5k. So if we make 15-AUG as our baseline then the total should be 8K + 5K = 13K. Please advise your thoughts on that. I agree that Jul is rather heavy.

I am not so sure of the I485 figures in USCIS I485 inventory. I am assuming that the inventory is the reason you say July is heavy. The reason is that I485 in July for some reason has nearly 3 times the no of EB2/EB3 I485 than any other month yet the perms (from Spec data)
Jul-07 - 1,871 ----- 523 ------ 176 ----- 26 ------- 5 --- 2,601
are the same as any other month.

If it was truly that much higher then this should have been reflected in the Perm. I am skeptical about how accurate that data is. I have a feeling in many cases I485 receipt date may have shown as priority date.

Spectator

09-23-2011, 05:03 PM

I am not so sure of the I485 figures in USCIS I485 inventory. I am assuming that the inventory is the reason you say July is heavy. The reason is that I485 in July for some reason has nearly 3 times the no of EB2/EB3 I485 than any other month yet the perms (from Spec data)
Jul-07 - 1,871 ----- 523 ------ 176 ----- 26 ------- 5 --- 2,601
are the same as any other month.

If it was truly that much higher then this should have been reflected in the Perm. I am skeptical about how accurate that data is. I have a feeling in many cases I485 receipt date may have shown as priority date.Gclongwait,

It is a good point. I agree it does look odd.

I don't know the answer, although in August 2007 many cases would have had a PD virtually identical to the RD, since large numbers of PERM were being approved in a few days.

The BIG difference is the number of EB2-C cases reported in the inventory for July (about 3x more than normal). That higher demand from EB2-C (for what is left of 2007) is reflected in the Demand Data.

On the other hand, the DOS Demand Data figures stack up well against the published USCIS Inventory.

Versus the reported 8,075 of the Demand Data for EB2-IC, the USCIS Inventory reports 8,225 broken down as follows :

PD --------------- No. -- China
April 15-30 ---- 1,078
May ------------ 1,588 ---- 519
June ----------- 1,819 ---- 545
July ----------- 3,319 -- 1,718
August ----------- 421

Total ---------- 8,225

I guess we will find out fairly soon.

nishant2200

09-23-2011, 05:17 PM

Spectator

09-23-2011, 05:53 PM

***** Spec i bow to your feet on the effort your doing to immigration community ***** what a fantastic job and you are my hero on the calculations.along the side so may thanks to Q,Teddy (also great guru on calculations),Monica12 ,Venni,Soggadu and nishant2200 (*** these days i am not able to find any page with out your message ) ...keep going guys all the best those got current and good luck to those waiting to file 485I am genuinely surprised and humbled by the appreciative comments about the latest Cut Off Date Predictions. I thank you all.

I know it was a joke, but I think soggadu was closest in saying it was "OK".

Yes, it is probably visually pleasing, but remember that it is only as good as the underlying data. The old maxim of GIGO is so true.

Hopefully, it will be possible for all of us to refine the calculations, if new demand from Forward Cut Off Dates stays around long enough to be captured (in its entirity) in the Demand Data, or preferably, the USCIS Inventory.

That really needs a fast forward movement followed by retrogression for a period to lock the figures. I don't wish the latter part on anyone, just for the sake of collecting figures.

Good luck to everybody.

SmileBaba

09-23-2011, 05:59 PM

qblogfan will help you out as needed, but I just want to point out that today itself murthy has put this article:
http://murthy.com/news/n_foiare.html
about FOIA

good luck smilebaba, I hope you smile a lot :)

Thanks Nishant! On all the efforts you have put on this forum till date..what all I can say is ..Nishant baba ki Jai ho! :)

Monica12

09-23-2011, 06:34 PM

I am genuinely surprised and humbled by the appreciative comments about the latest Cut Off Date Predictions. I thank you all.

I know it was a joke, but I think soggadu was closest in saying it was "OK".

Yes, it is probably visually pleasing, but remember that it is only as good as the underlying data. The old maxim of GIGO is so true.

Hopefully, it will be possible for all of us to refine the calculations, if new demand from Forward Cut Off Dates stays around long enough to be captured (in its entirity) in the Demand Data, or preferably, the USCIS Inventory.

That really needs a fast forward movement followed by retrogression for a period to lock the figures. I don't wish the latter part on anyone, just for the sake of collecting figures.

Good luck to everybody.
Spec, you are too kind and humble. We are so very glad that you are part of this wonderful family. I really wish we could meet you and thank you personally.
Maybe one day we can have a " Q get-together " aside from this forum, where we can all meet each other personally :)
Sai, thank you for your very kind words. So nice of you :)
Man.. I'm getting senti... This world is not such a bad place after all :D

gcoracle

09-24-2011, 07:52 AM

Any place will be a better place if the environment is good. We might get that occasional bad apple (remember that guy who spoke about spec) but they will change too when they realize that they are the odd one out. For the past 8 months or so I never missed a single post on this forum and I am proud of each and every member of this forum for maintaining that decorum.

leo07

09-24-2011, 02:18 PM

Yeah, when we all get out of this 'mess', I'm all in for a get together. We should actually felicitate or at the least celebrate Q,Spec and Teddy :)

I call it a immigration mess with deep frustration. The number of hoops that I had to jump through after the last VB brought good news for me, was nothing short of a circus feat. Both Literally & physically, I was going from Pillar to post -- Finding my I-20s from more than a decade ago, which btw, those Schools that I attended don't have either, is just one of the Pillars. I have the Degree certificates and grades but not the I-20s :(

Spec, you are too kind and humble. We are so very glad that you are part of this wonderful family. I really wish we could meet you and thank you personally.
Maybe one day we can have a " Q get-together " aside from this forum, where we can all meet each other personally :)
:D

nishant2200

09-24-2011, 04:31 PM

I hear you. I feel like I have been running since a long time. I want to lie down and sleep peacefully.

Leo, almost there. Hang in there.

Yeah, when we all get out of this 'mess', I'm all in for a get together. We should actually felicitate or at the least celebrate Q,Spec and Teddy :)

I call it a immigration mess with deep frustration. The number of hoops that I had to jump through after the last VB brought good news for me, was nothing short of a circus feat. Both Literally & physically, I was going from Pillar to post -- Finding my I-20s from more than a decade ago, which btw, those Schools that I attended don't have either, is just one of the Pillars. I have the Degree certificates and grades but not the I-20s :(

Jitesh

09-24-2011, 07:53 PM

qesehmk

09-24-2011, 08:01 PM

If you already dont know it then you don't need to since it is meant for foreign students in America.
What is I-20(in case I need to get it too)?

srd4gc

09-24-2011, 10:44 PM

oh oh! do we need to include I20 in the 485 package?

Yeah, when we all get out of this 'mess', I'm all in for a get together. We should actually felicitate or at the least celebrate Q,Spec and Teddy :)

I call it a immigration mess with deep frustration. The number of hoops that I had to jump through after the last VB brought good news for me, was nothing short of a circus feat. Both Literally & physically, I was going from Pillar to post -- Finding my I-20s from more than a decade ago, which btw, those Schools that I attended don't have either, is just one of the Pillars. I have the Degree certificates and grades but not the I-20s :(

nishant2200

09-25-2011, 12:01 AM

oh oh! do we need to include I20 in the 485 package?

Nope, must be some really special reason why leo had to.

soggadu

09-25-2011, 07:22 AM

Nope, must be some really special reason why leo had to.

thank god....it would b a crazy hunt for me as I shifted univs... Anyone from SIUC?

zenmaster

09-25-2011, 08:48 AM

Article from TOI (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Turmoil-in-Western-economies-has-NRIs-heading-back-home/articleshow/10115458.cms) : Just pasting it here so that you folks dont have to deal with too many adds....

NEW DELHI: Faced with declining salaries and job cuts abroad, an increasing number of NRI professionals are moving back to India in search of greener pastures, a move that will give homegrown companies the chance to target this attractive resource pool.

According to a study by MyHiringClub.com, a recruitment tendering platform, hiring of non-resident Indians (NRIs) will account for 19 per cent of total recruitment activity during October-December this year, compared to 11 per cent in the year-ago period, representing a growth of 8 per cent.

Hiring of NRIs accounted for 21 per cent of total recruitment activity during April-June, 2011.

"The high economic growth in India, with many good opportunities, has fuelled the NRI thought process to head back. In addition to that, many Indian companies are shutting their offices in the West," MyHiringClub.com CEO Rajesh Kumar said.

However, "It is not only the major crisis in the West, but also a combination of economic, social and other factors that has driven this," he said.

The segments that will witness the maximum NRI recruitment during the period under review include IT and ITES, followed by automobiles, manufacturing and engineering, banking and financial services, infrastructure, telecom, FMCG and retail.

The survey, conducted among 429 corporate and 710 recruitment consultants, said appointment of NRIs will rise by 9 per cent in the IT and ITES space during the third quarter of the 2012 fiscal vis-a-vis the year-ago period.

Similarly, hiring in the automobiles, manufacturing and engineering sector will grow by 8 per cent, while NRI recruitment will be up 4 per cent in the banking and financial services space.

In terms of cities, the IT hub of Bangalore will see the maximum growth in NRI recruitment activity, followed by Mumbai, Delhi and Hyderabad.

Among NRI job seekers, those having work experience of 1-5 years have the maximum chance (52 per cent) of getting hired in India, while job seekers with experience of 5-10 years have a 28 per cent chance. NRI job seekers with experience of more than 15 years have only a 5 per cent chance of recruitment.

Looking ahead, the survey said, "An increasing number of high value NRI professional recruitment is likely to take place in the coming quarter, as wage gaps have declined sharply. An increasing number of people is now returning because now the advantages of returning back to India outweigh the disadvantages by far."

GCDespo

09-25-2011, 09:02 PM

Nishant,

Sorry for the very late response. I was busy with our go-live and could not visit our favourite website. regarding your question on Vaccination records from School. Our school has a "health center " which has all of the students health records. During first semester they evaluated record of all vaccinations and gave us vaccines that are required. I found the following on our university website. May be you can try if your school has any such thing. If your school does not have a health center,you can try "Student and faculty services" or search "student health record" on their website. My school have been good and gave me what ever records that are needed with a fax request.

"MEDICAL RECORD:
Prior to treatment at Student Health Services, the patient is required to complete a short personal medical history form. All patient medical records are confidential. This information is not released to any source, University or otherwise, without the written consent of the patient, except as required by law or courtorder. When authorized to release medical records they will not be transmitted via facsimile. All medical records properly authorized for release will be mailed.

"

nishant2200

09-25-2011, 09:47 PM

This is really good to know. I will call and try to get to someone in authority, last time some student worker picked up who didn't quite get what I am talking about. Basically it's possible, that's what I come to know from you, thank you again.

Nishant,

Sorry for the very late response. I was busy with our go-live and could not visit our favourite website. regarding your question on Vaccination records from School. Our school has a "health center " which has all of the students health records. During first semester they evaluated record of all vaccinations and gave us vaccines that are required. I found the following on our university website. May be you can try if your school has any such thing. If your school does not have a health center,you can try "Student and faculty services" or search "student health record" on their website. My school have been good and gave me what ever records that are needed with a fax request.

"MEDICAL RECORD:
Prior to treatment at Student Health Services, the patient is required to complete a short personal medical history form. All patient medical records are confidential. This information is not released to any source, University or otherwise, without the written consent of the patient, except as required by law or courtorder. When authorized to release medical records they will not be transmitted via facsimile. All medical records properly authorized for release will be mailed.

"

leo07

09-25-2011, 10:55 PM

Yes, we need to include I-20s as part of the AOS package.

Nope, must be some really special reason why leo had to.

leo07

09-25-2011, 10:56 PM

Yes. If you were on F1 at one point.

leo07

09-25-2011, 11:02 PM

For people who came on F-1 visa to pursue education in USA, US schools give out a I-20 form that you can take to US Embassy to get a visa stamp. You may not need it, if you are in H1-b all the time.Like, even if you attended schools here, on H1-B you will not need I-20.

Jonty Rhodes

09-25-2011, 11:08 PM

Article from TOI (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Turmoil-in-Western-economies-has-NRIs-heading-back-home/articleshow/10115458.cms) : Just pasting it here so that you folks dont have to deal with too many adds....

With due respect to you, I would not be reading too much in to these TOI articles. There would always be few people who want to go back because of better opportunities. There would be few people who would go back because they have lost the jobs or company sends them back. There would be few who go back for miscellaneous reasons.

Overall, my general feeling is that, once people come to US, it becomes difficult for them to go back. I have known many people who had lost their jobs and even took low paying jobs just because those jobs allowed them to stay here. Meanwhile, they kept applying for better jobs. This country has too many good factors that makes any person think ten times before going back to India.

I love India dearly and no offense against my country or countrymen, but there are still many huge problems in India that country has to overcome. Rampant corruption, Reservation Quotas, Red Tapism and Bureaucracy are some of them. In general, many people would not be encouraged to go back until they really think the environment is conducive. They will only go back if they really want to or they have to. Apart from factors like improved standard of living, high earning potential, better education system from college level and onwards, better quality of life, urge to support their family, exposure to better institutions and technology etc., many people have come to US from India either because they are tired of facing those problems in their daily lives or they don't want to face those problems in their daily lives. Overall, I believe the number of people going back would remain low until conditions in India improve significantly.

TOI has published similar articles in the past also on the same line. But the reverse brain drain has not happened to a great extent yet as they predicted. In fact, the number of Indian students studying is USA is rising each year.

"The US receives more Indian students than any other country in the world overtaking China in year 2001.The number of students studying in USA has gone up 94,563 to 103,260 in year 2010-11. Most of the students choose either east coast or mid-west as their destination in US."

This is a direct quotation from Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_students_abroad

OMG, I just realized that I just delivered a long lecture on this. I will sign-off for now. Have a good coming week to all.

P.S: BTW, TOI sucks. I had to watch the entire advertisement without even getting the option of cancelling it.

qesehmk

09-25-2011, 11:12 PM

Leo

I am pretty sure the AOS was applied without I-20 for me although I did masters here.

Yes, we need to include I-20s as part of the AOS package.

Jonty Rhodes

09-25-2011, 11:16 PM

Came across this article on EB-5. Uncle Sam is working hard to lure the investors to jump start the economy. If they are successful, we should not expect much SOFAD coming from EB-5.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/economy/article2476603.ece

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 01:59 AM

Lawyer never mentioned to me either, as well as never heard of this from anyone. My first I-20 would be > 10 years old n resting in peace somewhere.

Leo

I am pretty sure the AOS was applied without I-20 for me although I did masters here.

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 02:08 AM

Yes, we need to include I-20s as part of the AOS package.

http://immigrationroad.com/green-card/i-485-documents-checklist.php

These guys do mention some law firms ask for all I-20 and all I-94 etc.

Since my lawyer didn't ask nor have I heard any of my acquaintances who have already filed talk about I-20 will not panic. But yes, one more pain in the behind. Reward for actually studying here and hanging around more than decade.

Monica12

09-26-2011, 07:51 AM

http://immigrationroad.com/green-card/i-485-documents-checklist.php

These guys do mention some law firms ask for all I-20 and all I-94 etc.

Since my lawyer didn't ask nor have I heard any of my acquaintances who have already filed talk about I-20 will not panic. But yes, one more pain in the behind. Reward for actually studying here and hanging around more than decade.
I submitted my I-20s. If you have them, it's better to submit to avoid a RFE later..also, if you were on OPT , submit copy of EAD card etc.
Regarding I-94, all my lawyer asked for was the very lastest one and not all...considering when we leave US, we have to surrender the I-94 at the city of departure ( with the airlines)

mysati

09-26-2011, 08:29 AM

I submitted my I-20s. If you have them, it's better to submit to avoid a RFE later..also, if you were on OPT , submit copy of EAD card etc.
Regarding I-94, all my lawyer asked for was the very lastest one and not all...considering when we leave US, we have to surrender the I-94 at the city of departure ( with the airlines)

Hi guys,
I have been following this site for a few months now. Thank you for the stats and inputs and all the great work you guys do. Even minor stuff posted here is usually helpful in clarifying someone else's questions.

Reg. the I-20s, I had to submit my entire track record (all I-20s, OPT-EAD etc.) from the data of entry into the country to my Company lawyer when I joined and before they applied for my H1B. They also ask me to submit my I-94 copy everytime I re-enter. Maybe your lawyer already has these copies, you just have to check with them.

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 08:45 AM

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

Monica12

09-26-2011, 09:32 AM

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!
Nishant, you can try getting the I-20s from your school. They usually have an international students department and they might still have the copies. It's worth a try.
You can also try getting them from your old lawyer if you had one at the time( usually when we were students, most of us didn't have a lawyer and we had the school deal with all this). If you had a lawyer when you applied for H-1 B for the first time, that lawyer might have them too ( they would have certainly asked for the I-20 then )
Overall, don't lose any sleep over I-20s. There are many people who didn't submit them and didn't have a problem :)

qblogfan

09-26-2011, 09:44 AM

The last, but the most important thing is that both China and India are over populated and have very limited resrouces and it's good to move more people here to lower the pressure on their eco system. There are much more resources in USA, Australia and Canada. I think both countries should encourage more people to immigrate to these countries. There are plenty of smart people staying in China and India and brain drain is not a concern.

With due respect to you, I would not be reading too much in to these TOI articles. There would always be few people who want to go back because of better opportunities. There would be few people who would go back because they have lost the jobs or company sends them back. There would be few who go back for miscellaneous reasons.

Overall, my general feeling is that, once people come to US, it becomes difficult for them to go back. I have known many people who had lost their jobs and even took low paying jobs just because those jobs allowed them to stay here. Meanwhile, they kept applying for better jobs. This country has too many good factors that makes any person think ten times before going back to India.

I love India dearly and no offense against my country or countrymen, but there are still many huge problems in India that country has to overcome. Rampant corruption, Reservation Quotas, Red Tapism and Bureaucracy are some of them. In general, many people would not be encouraged to go back until they really think the environment is conducive. They will only go back if they really want to or they have to. Apart from factors like improved standard of living, high earning potential, better education system from college level and onwards, better quality of life, urge to support their family, exposure to better institutions and technology etc., many people have come to US from India either because they are tired of facing those problems in their daily lives or they don't want to face those problems in their daily lives. Overall, I believe the number of people going back would remain low until conditions in India improve significantly.

TOI has published similar articles in the past also on the same line. But the reverse brain drain has not happened to a great extent yet as they predicted. In fact, the number of Indian students studying is USA is rising each year.

"The US receives more Indian students than any other country in the world overtaking China in year 2001.The number of students studying in USA has gone up 94,563 to 103,260 in year 2010-11. Most of the students choose either east coast or mid-west as their destination in US."

This is a direct quotation from Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_students_abroad

OMG, I just realized that I just delivered a long lecture on this. I will sign-off for now. Have a good coming week to all.

P.S: BTW, TOI sucks. I had to watch the entire advertisement without even getting the option of cancelling it.

MeraNoAayega

09-26-2011, 09:50 AM

http://immigrationroad.com/green-card/i-485-documents-checklist.php

These guys do mention some law firms ask for all I-20 and all I-94 etc.

Since my lawyer didn't ask nor have I heard any of my acquaintances who have already filed talk about I-20 will not panic. But yes, one more pain in the behind. Reward for actually studying here and hanging around more than decade.

You are kidding me right... All I-94's.... I just have the latest one that is attached to my passport...... Why do they need the old ones...???

rinku1112

09-26-2011, 09:57 AM

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

Nishant,

I am not sure, you will like to hear this, but my lawyer asked me to submit any copies of I-20s and OPT/EADs from my student life a well. I am not sure this is something that is sent to USCIS, but more for the lawyer to check if there are any inadvertent issues or gaps in status during status changes from F1->OPT->H1 etc...

I had to search through a couple sacks full of documents from an earlier era and luckily found a photocopy each of my old I-20 and OPT/EAD cards. I have no idea where the originals are, but this sufficed for the lawyer.

Best of luck.

10102007

09-26-2011, 10:00 AM

Hi Q & other gurus,
I have been receiving a part of my pay as per diem. I believe the amount after subtracting the per diem amount is better than what is filed in my LCA (have to check with the lawyer though). Will per-diem pose a problem in the GC process ? Now that I'm so close, all these anxiety triggering questions are popping up.

Your responses are greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Monica12

09-26-2011, 10:01 AM

You are kidding me right... All I-94's.... I just have the latest one that is attached to my passport...... Why do they need the old ones...???
You dont need old I-94s. I have dealt with many lawyers over the yrs and they all asked only for the latest i-94 attached to your passport. This will suffice.
There are some lawyers who ask for all I-94s which in my opinion are not needed.

rahil1

09-26-2011, 10:07 AM

My Attorney asked for all the I 20's. With two schools and two Masters degrees, I had a bunch of them. He said he needed all as well as OPT card.This was back in 2007.
This time as I am applying for my wife, he asked for all her I-20's and opt card. I scanned them all last night.

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 10:29 AM

Thanks guys. Your last line is true. I have been calling folks I know and none of them remember searching for and supplying I-20. But it's true, based on leo, and also google search, that some people have been unlucky enough to have been asked for it. It seems to me that this might be to establish that you have been in status, since the 485 is for Adjustment of Status, which is valid only if you have never violated status. Ideally, the USCIS, DOS, DHS, CBP, any such agency should be able to find your entire A-Z history from just the fingerprint, or the SSN, or A number etc, seems like you have to be really unlucky or some special trigger which we don't know of to be asked for the I-20 specifically.

Now, my research so far:
- I did two courses of engineering at same university. I have my second I-20, and it has a SEVIS barcode and number, which I am guessing should be enough. I also have a copy of my second I-94 which was obtained when I went to India in summer vacation after first two semesters. Also for the first time ever entered USA, the old passport contains the stamp on Port of entry, as well as seems to me, the immigration officer for some reason, has also written the I-94 number on the passport next to the stamp. For my first H1, the lawyer I see has supplied the second I-20, and the second I-94, and the EAD (OPT) card copy.
- I have same lawyer since I have never changed job, and he always provides me entire application packet copy, so I have the entire application packet (sans company financials documents etc), for first H1, second H1, third H1 (extension of 3 years), PERM labor, 140 application packet. These packets together have copies of all my visa stamps and my I-94s except as said above the first one.
- It seems to me all he needs in the end now for 485 is a universal set of all the documents he has for all the above applications.
- I have also contacted the international visa services office of the university, and asked them if they have my first I-20 also just in case. I will update when I get further ahead on this. I have also asked them about health records. Let's see.

Now to drop off kid to school after convincing to brush teeth and have something to eat, entire house is in turmoil right now :)

Nishant, you can try getting the I-20s from your school. They usually have an international students department and they might still have the copies. It's worth a try.
You can also try getting them from your old lawyer if you had one at the time( usually when we were students, most of us didn't have a lawyer and we had the school deal with all this). If you had a lawyer when you applied for H-1 B for the first time, that lawyer might have them too ( they would have certainly asked for the I-20 then )
Overall, don't lose any sleep over I-20s. There are many people who didn't submit them and didn't have a problem :)

superdesi2100

09-26-2011, 10:51 AM

qesehmk

09-26-2011, 11:26 AM

Looks like its a good idea to have I-20 handy - if for nothing else - to prove lawful presence. I must admit I must be quite an exception - so forget my experience.

I remember there was also a scandal in some california university where students were without I-20 or something. I wonder if that would also drive future scrutiny of I-20s for due diligence during GC process.

So as I said .. better safe that sorry. If you were a student then keep I-20 accessible.

My attorney had asked for I-20 when I filed I-485 in 2007. The reason - one of the requirements of I-485 processing is that you must prove that your stay in United States has been legal. I-20 is part of proving your legal stay during your student visa. I was also told that if you still have the passport with the expired Student Visa, it will work in lieu of the I-20. I did not have I-20 (couldn't find it - I found it now though) and I gave the attorney a copy of my passport, which has the expired student visa. So far I have not been asked to provide a copy of I-20.

qblogfan

09-26-2011, 11:44 AM

Sorry for my late reply.

I wrote: A copy of approved I140 and PERM documents.

If you have I140 receipt number, you can list it on the form for their convenience.

You will get a CD with more than 30 pages of files. File it as soon as possible because you need to wait for 6 months.

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 11:54 AM

My attorney had asked for I-20 when I filed I-485 in 2007. The reason - one of the requirements of I-485 processing is that you must prove that your stay in United States has been legal. I-20 is part of proving your legal stay during your student visa. I was also told that if you still have the passport with the expired Student Visa, it will work in lieu of the I-20. I did not have I-20 (couldn't find it - I found it now though) and I gave the attorney a copy of my passport, which has the expired student visa. So far I have not been asked to provide a copy of I-20.

I just finished short phone call with attorney. I can confirm he said this same thing to me. Since he already had my second I-20 which has a SEVIS barcode and number, and also copies of my old passport, with the old F1 visa, as well as the immigration entry stamp, and also the University transcript which indicates all semesters and the courses taken, and the final degree obtained, and OPT (EAD) card copy, all this together is enough, and he never bothered to ask me for this whenever I ask what we will need further for 485. He used them to establish chain of status when doing the first H1. If no I-20, it's ok to just provide the F1 visa and all other mentioned above.

srd4gc

09-26-2011, 12:21 PM

hmmm...good to know...now i gotto start digging for these docs...
i never made copies of my old I-94s...all i have is the latest I-94...any issue here???

veni001

09-26-2011, 12:28 PM

I just finished short phone call with attorney. I can confirm he said this same thing to me. Since he already had my second I-20 which has a SEVIS barcode and number, and also copies of my old passport, with the old F1 visa, as well as the immigration entry stamp, and also the University transcript which indicates all semesters and the courses taken, and the final degree obtained, and OPT (EAD) card copy, all this together is enough, and he never bothered to ask me for this whenever I ask what we will need further for 485. He used them to establish chain of status when doing the first H1. If no I-20, it's ok to just provide the F1 visa and all other mentioned above.

Nishant,
That's what a good lawyer does, maintain a file for the client and keep updating it with incremental changes until he/she see the light!

samudrala

09-26-2011, 02:20 PM

Hi Gurus,

Thank you for all your efforts and contributions to this famous site. I have the following questions. Could somebody answer these.

My PD is 06/06/2007 EB2I which will be current from October.

1. When would we expect GC if filled in Oct. 2011 for PWMB?
2. When can I expect my EAD/AP?

Thank you in advance

donvar

09-26-2011, 02:25 PM

Looks like its a good idea to have I-20 handy - if for nothing else - to prove lawful presence. I must admit I must be quite an exception - so forget my experience.

One more trap to make things difficult.

qesehmk

09-26-2011, 02:41 PM

friends.... it looks like more and more people like to engage in advocacy on this forum. And its a really good thing if there is appetite for it. Because of our limited strength and power we always were laser focused on bringing clarity to GC process. Even today if you look at our membership ... its hardly 1300 of which only 350 are active members ie. logged on with username password in last couple of weeks. Otherwise we have about 1000 unique visitors every day.

Anyway .. but if we continue to see interest in doing whatever little advocacy .... then it might be worthwhile for somebody to take a lead and put some thought process and structure around it. Because random efforts is better than no efforts. But structured efforts would certainly be more effective. Again... just a thought. Thanks for all those engaged in bringing some +ve change.

leo07

09-26-2011, 04:22 PM

If you have been working for the same employer and attorney from your school days, the attorney will have the documentation from the first H1 petition days

leo07

09-26-2011, 04:28 PM

I managed to find all I20s from my last school. Basically they had archived my entire application in off-campus location. It was nostalgic to go to school and look at all my papers/checks/recs from professors etc :) I think drive down the memory lane is worth it :)

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

imdeng

09-26-2011, 04:38 PM

I have been looking through H1B data to see if we can extract some wisdom from there regarding future movements of EB2 and EB2I in particular. This is based on the assumption that much of EB2 demand originates from H1B (am I correct in assuming this?) so H1B data can be one of the leading indicators of future EB2 movement.

1. Overall: H1B visa issued peaked in FY01 at 161.6K, reduced to a low of 107.2K in FY03, recovered to the post Y2K peak of 154.1K in FY07 and then slowed down to 129.5K in FY08, 110.4K in FY09 and 117.4K in FY10.

2. Distribution: H1B visas are getting concentrated in a few high volume countries. India used to account for 40%-45% of all H1B visas - that ratio is now 50%-55%. China's share has increased from 4%-5% to 8%-10%. South Korea from ~1% to ~3%. Philippines and Mexico have held steady at 2%-3%. Apart from these top five H1B consuming countries, the share of "Others" has come down from around 50% to just about 33% of total.

3. India: FY07 and FY08 were bumper years for India H1B - 83.5K and 72.5K! The recession brought the numbers down to 55.9K in FY09 and 58.7K in FY10 - these are still very high numbers.

What does it all mean:
1. India is going to be retrogressed for decades ceteris paribus. There is just way too much demand out there.
2. Per Country Limits will start to hamper South Korea soon. They have way too large F1 and H1B population in US - it will make them hit the 7% ceiling pretty soon.
3. China is in a better situation than India based on H1B data - but their H1B numbers are pretty high too - they will remain retrogressed mainly because India's high demand will prevent much SOFAD from going to them.
4. Mexico and Philippines will continue there current trend - they are not a threat to consume too many EB2 visas.
5. Since ROW is consuming less H1Bs, can we project that they will consume less EB visas as well?

One quick question:
1. China has huge numbers of students coming to US every year on F1 (100K+) compared to India (25K+). Are Chinese students going back in such large numbers that this numeric advantage in not showing up in H1B numbers. After all, one needs to shift from F1 to H1B for someone to work here and then get into EB queue.

All data are from NIV Excel Spreadsheet from this page: http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/nivstats/nivstats_4582.html

iamdeb

09-26-2011, 04:49 PM

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

mysati

09-26-2011, 04:50 PM

1. Overall: H1B visa issued peaked in FY01 at 161.6K, reduced to a low of 107.2K in FY03, recovered to the post Y2K peak of 154.1K in FY07 and then slowed down to 129.5K in FY08, 110.4K in FY09 and 117.4K in FY10.

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 04:54 PM

Trivia.

December 2004 VB:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1343.html

All was C, and in this one, they warned that EB3 is seeing very heavy demand and we may need to retrogress and they did in January 2005.

It almost feels surreal to see everything current in December 2004.

and then October 2005
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2631.html

EB2 I/C became retrogressed. It's interesting, even EB1 I/C is retrogressed in this bulletin.

It was Current in September 2005 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

cool_mj007

09-26-2011, 05:00 PM

I think you are just talking about the H1B visas under the cap. There are H1B visas outside of the cap as well for example Hospitals, Universities, Government offices, Non profit organizations are exempt from cap so any number of H1B can be allocated to them as long as they have a need and can justify the hiring.

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).

imdeng

09-26-2011, 05:03 PM

Number of H1B issued is always higher than the H1B cap since non-profits like Universities are exempt from the cap and they are not counted in the 65K+20K limit. Although I do agree with you that the numbers may include renewals.

BTW the current year is proving really slow for H1B. Only 32K of 65K regular cap and 16K of 20K Masters cap has been consumed until 09/09/2011. Could it be that for the first time in forever we might not fill the H1B quota this year??

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).

cool_mj007

09-26-2011, 05:08 PM

@Nishant2200 some of it was due to fluctuating demand but a big part of those movements was also due to lack of coordination between different agencies and offices. They couldn't keep track of how many visas they had uses/left for the year. Systems are much better now so hopefully we will avoid such wild swings.

Trivia.

December 2004 VB:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1343.html

All was C, and in this one, they warned that EB3 is seeing very heavy demand and we may need to retrogress and they did in January 2005.

It almost feels surreal to see everything current in December 2004.

and then October 2005
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2631.html

EB2 I/C became retrogressed. It's interesting, even EB1 I/C is retrogressed in this bulletin.

It was Current in September 2005 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 05:18 PM

qblogfan

09-26-2011, 07:59 PM

Yes, most of the Chinese F1 student prefer to go to Phd program. In the Chinese culture, it is a great honor to have a Phd degree. No matter whether the Phd is in a useful field or not, they just want to have this Phd title.

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

Eb2_Dec07

09-26-2011, 09:45 PM

Gurus ,
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .

The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .

What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise .

soggadu

09-26-2011, 09:53 PM

soggadu

09-26-2011, 09:55 PM

cool mj, have to say, urs is my favorite photo icon, more than sogaddu :)

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

Monica12

09-26-2011, 09:59 PM

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

LOL! Oh no...soggadu, you are losing fans.
Nishant, Soggadu probably will have nightmares today :D

qesehmk

09-26-2011, 10:08 PM

EB2 ... i think your situation is mildly serious. I wouldn't lose sleep over it. But I would recommend having a good lawyer represent you.

It seems even if you accrued unlawful presence it was not of your doing. So USCIS wouldn't look at it unfavorably. They already gave you a second H1 or extension of first H1 ... right? So probably you will be ok.

I am concerned about the letter from employer though since howsoever small its inaccurate at best and fradulent at worst. And depending on how things proceed and what kind of USCIS officer you are going to meet, that thing could slip through or come and bite you in rear.

So best to come straight and lay things out as honest as possible. I would think that you would be ok. But i think its worth spending some money and having a lawyer represent you in this case - given how much time effort and money you and your wife have invested thus far ..

Gurus ,
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .

The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .

What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise .

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......
soggadu I will "patao" the princess. Go ahead and change your avatar to upend cool mj!

nishant2200

09-26-2011, 10:57 PM

so r u saying we might get current keeping the past in mind? Is there any conclusion to be made from the bulletins or just for information? just wondering....

No no man, I was just intrigued that not more than like 6 years back, all this used to be current.

srd4gc

09-27-2011, 12:12 AM

in the fear that i would not find my I-20, i have sent an email to the office of international affairs at my univ...didn't get any response yet but luckily after an hour or so of digging up i found my I-20...a little bit of relief (today my attorney gave me a list of docs needed for i485 and it includes I-20)...

I managed to find all I20s from my last school. Basically they had archived my entire application in off-campus location. It was nostalgic to go to school and look at all my papers/checks/recs from professors etc :) I think drive down the memory lane is worth it :)

cool_mj007

09-27-2011, 08:06 AM

@Soggadu, don't worry your avatar is still my favorite:)

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

mysati

09-27-2011, 08:48 AM

Number of H1B issued is always higher than the H1B cap since non-profits like Universities are exempt from the cap and they are not counted in the 65K+20K limit. Although I do agree with you that the numbers may include renewals.

BTW the current year is proving really slow for H1B. Only 32K of 65K regular cap and 16K of 20K Masters cap has been consumed until 09/09/2011. Could it be that for the first time in forever we might not fill the H1B quota this year??

Sorry, I overlooked that fact and thanks for clarifying.

gchopeful123

09-27-2011, 09:01 AM

Since the Nov bulletin is coming up, what are your opinions on further movement? Initially, my thoughts were that the VO will not move dates further (at least within next bulletin) as they may need some more time to gauge actual demand related to the Oct 2011 bulletin. This is because it will be only 8/10 days into Oct when the Nov bulletin comes out. But after hearing the news that they have run out of visa numbers for 2011, I am now thinking that there may be good chance of further movement in the Nov bulletin.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

rdsingh79

09-27-2011, 09:24 AM

Even I am thinking how will DOS decide on cut off dates for Nov since they will have ~8 days in Oct to look at new EB2IC I-485 filed based on movement in Oct VB. Probably DOS is not clueless about expected new demand, but are testing the waters. I am guessing (hoping) that they will move atleast 3 months in Nov.

Since the Nov bulletin is coming up, what are your opinions on further movement? Initially, my thoughts were that the VO will not move dates further (at least within next bulletin) as they may need some more time to gauge actual demand related to the Oct 2011 bulletin. This is because it will be only 8/10 days into Oct when the Nov bulletin comes out. But after hearing the news that they have run out of visa numbers for 2011, I am now thinking that there may be good chance of further movement in the Nov bulletin.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

qesehmk

09-27-2011, 09:28 AM

Sure. Will certainly check around end of first week of oct.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

rdsingh79

09-27-2011, 09:29 AM

Its been a while since I looked at my I-120s/OPT EADs. This weekend's mission is to find them!!

in the fear that i would not find my I-20, i have sent an email to the office of international affairs at my univ...didn't get any response yet but luckily after an hour or so of digging up i found my I-20...a little bit of relief (today my attorney gave me a list of docs needed for i485 and it includes I-20)...

Monica12

09-27-2011, 09:29 AM

imdeng

09-27-2011, 09:35 AM

You still need an H1B for working in academia. One might get off H1B quickly through EB1 in case of well published academic - but the path still goes through H1B - right?

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

qblogfan

09-27-2011, 09:46 AM

I think the VB will move ahead in the next VB and Dec VB.

Oct.VB can't generate too much demand.

I think anything can happen at this point. They might stop or move by another 3 months or so. I really hope they donot retrogress the dates, as that would probably mean little-no movement in the coming months :(
Q, It would be great if " Cali baba" can give us some info :)

imdeng

09-27-2011, 10:30 AM

Q - I had the impression that we were going to shift to a new thread for the new FY. This thread has become too unwieldy I guess. You can reserve say the first 10 posts for you to edit updates and summary throughout the year and we can all start afresh.

10102007

09-27-2011, 10:50 AM

Being a perennial pessimist, even I went ahead and made an appointment with a civil surgeon to get the vaccinations. Dates will move, hopefully :)

qesehmk

09-27-2011, 10:51 AM

Yes we will - On Oct 1st. And then we will archive this thread.

Q - I had the impression that we were going to shift to a new thread for the new FY. This thread has become too unwieldy I guess. You can reserve say the first 10 posts for you to edit updates and summary throughout the year and we can all start afresh.

so what happens if number of people sign it? Just want to understand how this signing program is going help any one..
What other alternative you have in mind that will help people? This is zero cost, low time investment option that is optional for those who want to do something.

visagcinfo

09-27-2011, 10:51 AM

I guess new thread for 2012 will be opened on 10/01.

iamdeb

09-27-2011, 11:17 AM

You are correct about only path to work is H1. However most Chinese students continue to be on F1 for higher studies and once they enter the PhD program then the wait can be 4,5,6,7 years (depends on the prof) and they needn't apply for H1.

qblogfan

09-27-2011, 11:34 AM

Phd takes 5 years or more, plus several years of postdoc. It will be more than one decade.

One thing I noticed is that there are thousands of Chinese students studying Biology, Chemistry and Physics, but I don't see many Indian students study these subjects. Most of my Indian friends are studying computer science and other engineering subjects. Usually it's difficult for the Chinese students to find a job after getting degrees in these subjects such as Biology, Chemistry and Physics. The only opitions for them are post doc positions or returning home.

You are correct about only path to work is H1. However most Chinese students continue to be on F1 for higher studies and once they enter the PhD program then the wait can be 4,5,6,7 years (depends on the prof) and they needn't apply for H1.