EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

The processing times are artificially lower right now because of huge amout of EB2IC backlog. As they build the pipeline the processing won't remain this fast.


Folks,
Great forum, great number crunching. Regarding the processing times, just wanted to quote my friends case as a reference. His PD is 07MAR07 and is a PWMB, got current in July VB, applied 485 on 07/01/11, got FP done on 07/15/11 and had GC in hand on 08/20/11. Everything is super quick, happened in ~45days. The processing times are assumed as 4-6 months, but do you guys think USCIS has improved on that front and no longer need such long times. One instance is not a basis, but in case if people heard similar processing times else where too.

Thnx

[kpt112107]

Is it valid if we make birth affidavit in US when our parents are here in US on visit visa? Or should we make in India through Indian lawyer only??

[Monica12]

on this note, I am really worried if they plan to move dates again for 3 months instead of 3.5/4 months..... 3 months mean Oct 15..... Keeping my fingers, matter of fact whole body crossed.... Please god either > Oct 22 or < Oct 1.... Can't take anything else...
LOL! I'm praying everyday the dates move by 3.5-4 months in the next VB so that we can see your dancing avatar again :)

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-11185/0-0-0-11549/0-0-0-11565.html

search for: (2) Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits , this is section 103.2 (b)(2)

straight from the source.

also at:
http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&rgn=div5&view=text&node=8:1.0.1.2.6&idno=8

see section 103.2

[qesehmk]

Welcome to the forum! If you are the primary applicant then in my opinion you don't need to worry about marriage certificate anymore.
One of my suggested to me about this forum and for the past few days I’ve going through the posts- I liked this forum very much.- Thanks to all the folks.

My EB2-PD is August 2007 and based on the current movement in the bulletin, I’m hoping to be in the line soon to file for my I 485. I went through I 485 documentation requirements and my question is related to the marriage / divorce certificate. I’m a divorcee since September 2004- was married in India and got my divorce in the US Court. This being my case, do I still need to provide both the marriage and divorce certificate? I don’t think it is necessary but thought of running this question through this forum for any thoughts or suggestions.
Thanks,

[psczd4]

Qesehmk- I'm the primary applicant and thanks very much for your opinion.

[qblogfan]

me too, I am addicted to this forum. I have to check this forum at least five times or even more every day.

The endless waiting is killing me. My wife needs EAD to work for school and I need AP to travel home to meet my family!

I have been working on the same position for seven years and I am desparate for GC now!


Soggadu,

Understand your pain buddy. This wait is killing me. I have become a Q forum addict and it's all numbers in the brain even during sleep. It is tough because we are very close to our dates becoming current but yet too far away. Feel sorry for the guys who missed it by a week or two.

Let's hope we get to apply for our 485 this year.

[qesehmk]

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.
me too, I am addicted to this forum. I have to check this forum at least five times or even more every day.

The endless waiting is killing me. My wife needs EAD to work for school and I need AP to travel home to meet my family!

I have been working on the same position for seven years and I am desparate for GC now!

[pichkaari]

Guys, any suggestions if I should go for AOS or CP (EB2 India PD 09/21/2007)? Keeping in mind the discussions about USCIS processing times/uncertainties/retrogression etc above.


Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

[indiasunil]

Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[nishant2200]

Hate to spoil the good vibes we all have right now, but :

USCIS Begins Implementation of Enhancements to the EB-5 Program

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=4415f0aec9262310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

USCIS is hell bent on selling the EB5 GCs for the 500k-1million.

[nishant2200]

I will let others chime in, my thought is if such was the case, it would be big news posted on all lawyer's websites as well as CO would have put this reason officially in the comments in visa bulletin.

also:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-s1085/show

shows its in just the introduced status.

as well as:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s111-1085

shows similar albeit more detailed status info. it also says: "This bill never became law."


Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[tanu_75]

Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?


Not sure if you are aware, but the government is effectively paralyzed. The visa recapture proposal has been in more than 10 bills over the past decade. Not a single one has passed. Not because everybody hates it, but because nothing happens in Congress anymore. And especially on immigration, absolutely nothing happens. The only hope and game in town is less demand from eb1 and eb2row, as has been the case the past few years.

[nishant2200]

Not sure if you are aware, but the government is effectively paralyzed. The visa recapture proposal has been in more than 10 bills over the past decade. Not a single one has passed. Not because everybody hates it, but because nothing happens in Congress anymore. And especially on immigration, absolutely nothing happens. The only hope and game in town is less demand from eb1 and eb2row, as has been the case the past few years.

And the recent jobs bill being promoted by President, if it had these provisions for EB reform, it would have a great chance. This was the last straw from this presidency for our hopes I feel. Now only in next term something hopefully can be taken up.

[nishant2200]

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.

Let's wait for qbf to reply, I think its in January 2008.

[cbpds1]

Dont worry, this recent jobs bill is not very pleasing to even the dem senators, forget abt repubs

Its more of a campaign bill.


And the recent jobs bill being promoted by President, if it had these provisions for EB reform, it would have a great chance. This was the last straw from this presidency for our hopes I feel. Now only in next term something hopefully can be taken up.

[nishant2200]

sunil, it's official, there's no extra visas this year to EB from any FB or any bill etc.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

credit to CM of US non immigrant blog.

[qesehmk]

I had replied earlier in the thread. Need to go back and check out.
Guys, any suggestions if I should go for AOS or CP (EB2 India PD 09/21/2007)? Keeping in mind the discussions about USCIS processing times/uncertainties/retrogression etc above.

Sunil, thanks for sharing. Although recapture bill is introduced every year and doesn't go anywhere, I think we need to continue to press for it. Because otherwise nobody is going to speak about it. The movement in October is still a puzzle whether it relates to 2011 visas or 2012 fresh set of visas.


Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[qesehmk]

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.
sunil, it's official, there's no extra visas this year to EB from any FB or any bill etc.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

credit to CM of US non immigrant blog.

[nishant2200]

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.

Is there any other way, any report, any mechanism, where we can find out how much FB was consumed this FY, so that we can estimate in advance. I think DOS or DHS releases some report about the consumption.

[Kanmani]

I am searching for the FB inventory , if there is any, after Nishant pointed out the 2 years FB movement and retrogession in 2010.

Still not found .

[qesehmk]

Yes there is. That report is published both by DHS ... usually by Dec of this year.
Is there any other way, any report, any mechanism, where we can find out how much FB was consumed this FY, so that we can estimate in advance. I think DOS or DHS releases some report about the consumption.

[indiasunil]

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.



I had replied earlier in the thread. Need to go back and check out.

Sunil, thanks for sharing. Although recapture bill is introduced every year and doesn't go anywhere, I think we need to continue to press for it. Because otherwise nobody is going to speak about it. The movement in October is still a puzzle whether it relates to 2011 visas or 2012 fresh set of visas.

[gcseeker]

Indiasunil

Nice effort putting together the movement across the years.I would view this table a little differently since the movement is not an independent event and is very heavily dependent both on policy(law) and economic conditions. I will not use the datapoints before 2001 since conditions were vastly different.

2007 and 1999 should not be used for the average calculation computations since they are once in a lifetime kind of events. I will not take the heavy retrogression year of 2008 also for similar reasons. Discarding those points still your table demonstrates that dates should atleast move by 6-8 months in the most pessimistic scenario and by 11 months in the medium scenario and even further in the best case scenario.

Since there are headwinds on the spillover side from EB5/EB1 8 months movement might be an very rough case projection purely based on the table above bringing us to the border of Nov/Dec 2007.

All I am trying to do is make an very rough ballpark estimate without delving into the numbers and using the single table above. Generally the trend being followed over an decade should hold up.




Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

[gc_usa]

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?

[nishant2200]

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?

to be fair to gcseeker, he has clearly mentioned the disclaimer in his post last para, as well as he and Sunil are just brainstorming. We all should draw our own judgements from various data sources and methods.

[leo07]

If I remember correctly, for the for 2010, October data had the yearly quota 147 or 148K with a note about Family spill-over.

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.

[PlainSpeak]

In my opinion

The EB2 dates will move to the most favorable date of 31/July/2007 after which the dates wil be stuck there for a long time till either
- All previous apps have been cleared (Highly Likely)
- Spillover season occurs in 2012 (Highly unlikely)
Like i said In my opinion ......

[skpanda]

i have done it in US for my parents and my attorneys and immigration expects in my company.. say that is perfectly fine (infact even better).


Is it valid if we make birth affidavit in US when our parents are here in US on visit visa? Or should we make in India through Indian lawyer only??

[Gclongwait]

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?

Actually I would. When you are dealing in large numbers and hundreds of variables that affect a certain a value you do see a trend. The stock market does have cycles of up and down which follow a trend, after discounting inflation.

I fail to see anything wrong in his approach.

[soggadu]

thanks for the wishes JJ, bieber, 10102007, gcseeker and monica..... Lets hope for the best and leave the rest.....

[qblogfan]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.


qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.

[nayekal]

I have received quite a few requests for affidavit template.. hence i thought i will attach it here.


Enjoy!

Great!! Thanks

[qblogfan]

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.


Let's wait for qbf to reply, I think its in January 2008.

[dec2007]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.
Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.

[qesehmk]

sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)


Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.


If I remember correctly, for the for 2010, October data had the yearly quota 147 or 148K with a note about Family spill-over.
Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.


Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.
Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers :)

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your kind words, my friend!:)

It's 11pm in Houston. Hope you guys will have a good sleep.



sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)




Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.


Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers :)

[qblogfan]

Yes, I hope both of us can get EAD/AP/GC soon! We have waited for almost 4 years.


Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.

[Monica12]

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.
Whew! I'm so glad to know that you are Eb2 ... I was wondering about that.. Good luck, my friend!

[RRRRRR]

Happy for you that your date is jan 2008 and Eb2. Once again thanks for all your analysis and dedication to this thread. Good Luck.....


You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

[Pedro Gonzales]

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

[nishant2200]

:)

Good nite buddy.


If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

[tanu_75]

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

Well said. Some good intoxication that.

[10102007]

Yesterday there was a segment on Marketplace where they were discussing about lack of jobs. It was interesting because some of the developIng country have a lower unemployment rate. In the US, people who have jobs are not spending. Hence people without jobs stay unemployed. The companies that have cash are not spending either.

Now imagine this scenario: you ease up LEGAL immigration and more people come in. Now those people will need things and they could give a small push to the struggling economy. Think about how many of us have put off buying homes or other expensive things because of the X factor with H1B stamping and the dragging GC process. If an 'immigration' stability is provided, I'm sure a few of us will buy homes, a few may start small businesses, a few of us may pursue higher education.

I'm not saying this alone will spur the economy. But the current middle class and rich have what they want/ need and you need a new set of consumers.

Then comes the part where how ILLEGAL immigrants can help. Yes they are here illegally but see how you can take advantage of their position. Yes deport all illegal immigrants with criminal records, but if you somehow give a work permit, they may feel a firm footing. Of course, once an amnesty is given, you have to tighten border security so that people can't come here illegally to become legal immigrants. Also, the taxes these people pay is a win for the government.
(please note that I'm not supporter of forgiving illegal immigrants, but just rambling on how the US government can take advantage of their situation)

In a way the EB-5 plan is good too. Yes in a way it affects people like us, but that is why I stated that you have to ease up LEGAL immigration.


Sorry guys - just some directionless blabbering.

[gc_usa]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.

[kpt112107]

Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?


i have done it in US for my parents and my attorneys and immigration expects in my company.. say that is perfectly fine (infact even better).

[familyguy]

I have a PD which is close to yours.... There is a very good chance that we will get a chance to file 485 in this fiscal year.. worst case, i am pretty sure that we will get a chance to file early next FY, which is Oct 2013...


Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.

[Chilli19]

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html

[Kanmani]

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html

Our own Veni has already explained the 2007 scenario where people rushed to file I485 even without a Perm approval . Ron is late

[ssvp22]

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.
I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon :)

[gcoracle]

ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.

[ssvp22]

ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.
Yeah, that is what i heard. Heard my city(Chandigarh) has gone from City Beautiful to City of Traffic Jams. Looking forward to the day i can end my "vanvas".

[srimurthy]

One more Q guys, I got a copy of the I-140 approval notice from the employer. As shared earlier the A number and the PD is Sep, 30, 2010. I could not find this in the FLCDataCenter. Could it be that the FLCData Center is not upto date?

[Kanmani]

As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011

[skpanda]

in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.


Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?

[nishant2200]

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html

Excellent, thanks for sharing.

[evoori]

Thanks for sharing the format.. One last question, for your parents, did you put your US address or their India address in the address field ?


in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.

[nishant2200]

As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.

[Eb2_Dec07]

I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon :)

Sorry to know you have been on such a long wait. I can understand what you might be going through. In the past few years besides home country, I've missed out on so many great opportunities because of immigration status reqs. Besides anything else , what I yearn for now is the freedom to make decisions , choice and travel .

[Monica12]

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.

Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...

[veni001]

Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...

Not too far, only two more weeks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.

Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.

[nishant2200]

Thank you :)

So this theory can go in trash then.

Back to where we were!

But at least lot of E1, E2Row approved means less backlog next year.


Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.

[donvar]

Unavailability of All Employment-Based Numbers through October 1, 2011
Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Today, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Immigrant Visa Control Office issued a memorandum notifying United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) of the exhaustion of all employment-based visa numbers for Fiscal Year (FY) 2011. Accordingly, please note, empolyment-based applications for adjustment of status in the U.S. and immigrant visa applications abroad will not be accepted and will not be approved until October 1, 2011, due to the unavailability of FY 2011 immigrant visas numbers.

http://www.immigrationsolutions.com/resources/alerts/unavailability-of-all-employment-based-numbers-through-october-1-2011

[qesehmk]

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

[donvar]

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC. So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.
p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

So does this mean that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct Bulletin COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites got news from internal sources from the memo to USCIS.

[Monica12]

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

This is indeed strange.. Does anyone recollect if they ever made this type of announcement in the past too?

[qesehmk]

The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.

When they provide certain information to their sources they know exactly that this is going to the world. Enough said .. I rest my conspiracy theory.


So what does this mean? That new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( new pd) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites have got news from internal source from the memo to USCIS.

[donvar]

The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.


I googled and found out they did it in 2010 as well.

So is it confirmed now that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct 2011 COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?
As the new COD approvals was suppose to start from Oct 1.
Please enlighten.

[skpanda]

india address...


Thanks for sharing the format.. One last question, for your parents, did you put your US address or their India address in the address field ?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Don. I think what you say is highly probable. I am still puzzled with the early but small movement. This movement actually didn't give them any new 485 other than PWMB which probably will be 2K max in the time horizon they are looking at. So another movement in November is highly likely in my opinion.


I googled and found out they did it in 2010 as well.

So is it confirmed now that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct 2011 COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?
As the new COD approvals was suppose to start from Oct 1.
Please enlighten.

[Kanmani]

Source : http://www.immigration-law.com/

" FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS. "

[pch053]

The following news appeared in Oh law firm today:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If this is true (not sure, how reliable this lawyer is), then any new I485 approvals from 1st Oct will be from 2012 quota. So, this makes the 3 month forward movement even more surprising, though it's a pleasant surprise to many of us. From CO's visa bulletin notes, there was an indication that he is trying to build up a buffer. So, instead of a large BTM, we have might have forward movement in bursts before there is any probable retrogression. I am in agreement with Q's feedback on possibility of further movement in Nov bulletin as the 3 month movement in Oct will only create 2K additional PWMB cases. Maybe, CO is trying to emulate the FB trend from last year, but this is just a will guess from my side.

[Monica12]

The following news appeared in Oh law firm today:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If this is true (not sure, how reliable this lawyer is), then any new I485 approvals from 1st Oct will be from 2012 quota. So, this makes the 3 month forward movement even more surprising, though it's a pleasant surprise to many of us. From CO's visa bulletin notes, there was an indication that he is trying to build up a buffer. So, instead of a large BTM, we have might have forward movement in bursts before there is any probable retrogression. I am in agreement with Q's feedback on possibility of further movement in Nov bulletin as the 3 month movement in Oct will only create 2K additional PWMB cases. Maybe, CO is trying to emulate the FB trend from last year, but this is just a will guess from my side.

Yes, I completely agree...future VBs should show more movement. It just doesn't make sense that they want to build demand ( as stated in Oct VB) when they will get only 2-2.5 K new cases in Oct. That no. is just not enough to build additional pipeline...

[sha_kus]

Gurus,

I was thinking seriously about this and somehow i feel that CO is preparing IC for a quarterly spillover. Move IC a little bit and after 3 months spill over visas if available. Just a thought.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

Q here are the exact figures.

EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2012's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.

[TeddyKoochu]

Yes, I completely agree...future VBs should show more movement. It just doesn't make sense that they want to build demand ( as stated in Oct VB) when they will get only 2-2.5 K new cases in Oct. That no. is just not enough to build additional pipeline...

Yes they have been making this announcement atleast since 2 years but this year it has come really early.

[RRRRRR]

Hi Teddy,

I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.

Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify

Thanks


Q here are the exact figures.

EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2010's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.


Q here are the exact figures.

EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2010's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.

[familyguy]

Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....


Yes they have been making this announcement atleast since 2 years but this year it has come really early.

[veni001]

Teddy

So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.

Q,
Based on FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)) and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!

Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.

[qesehmk]

Veni
Then what explains why these people are so close to getting GC, had at some point of time bothered to create a trackitt account but then gave up tracking these cases since Jan 2011.

Q,
Based on FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)) and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!

Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.

[Kanmani]

Family Guy

I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .

[familyguy]

I agree with you - I think moment will be big for only one month followed by retrogression...


Family Guy

I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .

[kd2008]

Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=13c5f5873e661310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e0b081c52aa38210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

[Monica12]

Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....
Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!

[qesehmk]

Monica

I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.


Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!

[soggadu]

I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon :)

wow ssvp... u have to rsvp a ticket to india soon...

[Monica12]

Monica

I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.

Yes..I understand Q bhai.. I'm just as perplexed as everyone here :)
but I like your thoughts :)

[skpanda]

Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.



Teddy

So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.

Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.

Q, I believe that USCIS completed most of their Job in Aug that is why too little left for September, they have clocked almost double in Aug. Coming to Trackitt yes the case abandonment is higher than earlier, however if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.

[TeddyKoochu]

Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?

The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!

If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.

[TeddyKoochu]

Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.

There are some cases wherein people get their GC after leaving, they would give their friends address or in some cases convert to CP and then attend interview. I have read about cases belonging to the category when people get their GC after going back they don't withdraw their 485, not sure how legally tenable this is. CP cases are fine as long at the employer provides the EVL.

[qesehmk]

Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.


Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.

I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.


...if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.
This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.

This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.

[TeddyKoochu]

Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=13c5f5873e661310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e0b081c52aa38210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

This is good info, so we actually had just 6K SOFAD from EB5 so looks like those efforts are working.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.

Thanks, so there are indeed people who are current waiting for visa's. I made a typo intended to say that Oct 2011 bulletin is from 2012 cap.
Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify

Thanks

Thanks, so there are indeed people who are current waiting for visa's. I made a typo intended to say that Oct 2011 bulletin is from 2012 cap.

[soggadu]

Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=13c5f5873e661310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e0b081c52aa38210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

interesting...less number of EB5's when business is good in US and more numbers issued when things are bad...

[Monica12]

If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.
Damn! will need all the luck in the world now....Only hope is they don't pick cases randomly to approve but rather pick cases by PD.

[TeddyKoochu]

This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.

This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.

Q, Trackitt has been good on the approvals trend mainly, on the backlog it has not been reliable. I have seen the abandonment rates go up over the years. The chances of older cases being abandoned is higher, most people create their Id's itself when they are close to being current or are actually current this is especially true for EB2 ROW and EB1. For EB2-I and C too much time has elapsed. We have to find some kind of way to estimate how many people have gone back, maybe the agencies also do not have a handle on this that is why they are doing an intake in small steps and only the 485 data can be considered reliable.

[TeddyKoochu]

Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.

Q, I happen to know of a few cases on IV & Trackitt, this is true, and people have asked questions whether they will have any issues in re-entering. Also I happen to know of a case of one of my client managers, he had actually been laid off by his sponsoring employer, came to India to join this client and was then greened and went back. This client gave him a world tour at their expense to train him as he was supposed to be a global service delivery manager and he left them soon after to come back to US on his GC, not sure whether he joined his sponsor or went elsewhere, there is little scrutiny after GC, those were the good days around 2003 if I remember correctly.

[veni001]

Veni
Then what explains why these people are so close to getting GC, had at some point of time bothered to create a trackitt account but then gave up tracking these cases since Jan 2011.

Q,
When cut-off dates are severely retrogressed more people register/follow/track the trends!

EB2I was current up until September 2005 and then dates retrogresses as far back as Nov-'99 in October 2005 to "C" in July 2007.

At least for the last couple of years there is some clarity(mostly due to the transparency with demand & usage) . So not very many people are caring to track/update their cases?

Just my thoughts!

[yank]

Q,

Why are we only dependent on Trackitt for EB1 and EB2 ROW usage? Do we have any other source? We also admit CO and team gave us a agenda for discussion. In all this speculation one good thing is happened PWMB's are getting chance to file 485. Let them move the dates back and forth in small chunks. It happened in the past. It shouldn't be like a one that happened in July 07 because it was a mess. Immediate target is 485/EAD..GC tu abhi dur hai..and as Sogaddu (sorry, if I misspelled the name) bhayee said aaya tu aaya baki sab maya..:o

[veni001]

Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=13c5f5873e661310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e0b081c52aa38210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

Kd,
As usual good find.


This is good info, so we actually had just 6K SOFAD from EB5 so looks like those efforts are working.

Teddy,
EB5 spillover ~6K, lowest in last 6 years.

Unless I-526 receipts come down can expect similar usage for FY2012.

[Nishant_imt]

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

[Monica12]

"- ye GC nahin asaan, itna to samajh li je... ek phenyl ki goli hai aur choos ke khaana hai."
LOL ! This is too funny, Nishant.....

[Nishant_imt]

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

[soggadu]

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

hmm... on a funnier note... you find it apt for your GC wait and your wife on marriage :-) :-) Jai Ho...take it on a lighter note...

[soggadu]

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...

Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...

[Nishant_imt]

Prabhu.... 6 mahine se aapke comments padke apna mood theek kar raha hun.... aur aaj to aapne "woh maraa paapad waale ko". Yes, with my foul mood because of the GC thing all the time, my wife finds it hard to deal with me... so you guessed it right ..... hahahaha.... i am kidding... frankly, aapke waali baat... aaya to aaya, baaki sab maaya.




hmm... on a funnier note... you find it apt for your GC wait and your wife on marriage :-) :-) Jai Ho...take it on a lighter note...

[Nishant_imt]

Yaar yeh NVC kya hota hai? .... "nearest visa consulate"???


N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...

Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...

[qesehmk]

Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.


Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?


Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

[soggadu]

NVC = National visa center

[Nishant_imt]

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.



Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.





Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

[soggadu]

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.

N Imt... it is very much possible for your company to keep sponsoring as GC is for future employment... cheers... but i have a feeling you wont need to go that far and you will get your extension normally...

[nishant2200]

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Fragomen global corporate immigration law | News and Resources United States
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1325

Good news is that there is no wastage of Visas. Bad news is they ran out of numbers sooner than expected.

EB Immigrant Visa Numbers Unavailable Until October 1
September 15, 2011
The State Department has run out of immigrant visa numbers in all employment-based categories for this fiscal year. Until October 1, when next year’s visa quota becomes available, USCIS cannot approve any EB I-485 adjustment applications but foreign nationals can still submit them. Family-based adjustment applications are not affected.

The September Visa Bulletin – released on August 11 – projected that EB immigrant visas would be available throughout this month, but numbers ran out sooner because USCIS processed an unexpectedly large number of adjustment cases in early August.

When more EB immigrant visas become available on October 1, USCIS will process adjustment cases with priority dates that are current according to the October Visa Bulletin.

Friends this news from Fragomen confirms that August consumption was high thats why the Sep bulletin was so moderate. Trackitt trend shows that EB2 ROW and EB1 consumed double of what they did last year in Aug.

[10102007]

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

[TeddyKoochu]

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

[nishant2200]

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

:) After this I think the movement may only happen later on in dying stages of Q3/beginning of Q4, if USCIS/DOS realize danger of visas being wasted. We know that if need be, USCIS can do 485s in 2 to 3 months, as well as at this point, dates may be advanced not just for AOS, but to get the few hundred CP in. If they are advanced to get the few hundred CP in, then 2008 guys will get lucky.

[natvyas]

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

[nishant2200]

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

Yes, true. 2008 is a big fat year though, same as 2007. how much of 2008 can expect to file, that would be the analysis.

I have a fear that last two months of 2007 will be intruding into the pie of next FY too.

[indiasunil]

Based on any calculation, 2008 will be current for sure somewhere around Oct 2012. Million dollar question is, is there any possibility in Current Year ?


If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

[nishant2200]

What ????????

Nishant this is too much to digest

This is just purely based on surge of EB1, EB2 ROW and encouragement to EB5, which we all are seeing taking shape. let's hope it subsides due to bad economy or some reason.

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too :)

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

[pch053]

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.
I think then we are assuming that the FB trend will likely to be followed; most (if not all) of the forward movement will happen in Nov and Dec bulletins and the PDs will then retrogress back in the Jan bulletin (maybe around April-May'07). The PDs will then start moving forward again from April-May bulletins and approvals will start flowing in. If this scenario happens, I will say that this is a fair model where approvals will roughly follow the order of PDs and there will be ample time to approve EB2-I/C cases for the spillover season. With that being said, in this situation we probably won't have that many approvals in Q1.

[Reader]

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too :)

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

[Monica12]

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.
So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

[cbpds1]

Time to do practice yoga this year again :)


So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

[Monica12]

Time to do practice yoga this year again :)

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

[Jitesh]

As someone calculated earlier in this thread,people with PD upto Dec2007 are highly likely to file I-485 in FY12- they may not get GC in FY12 though.
I think this is more likely.

[soggadu]

I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

please don't do that....we can live with it but the charities cant.... I am confident you won't do that.....

[soggadu]

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

[qesehmk]

Actually you can trademark it. One of the most famous 911 widow trademarked her late husband's words "Let's Roll" and licensed it to quite a few multinationals.
looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

[sai999]

Hello Guru's

I am sorry to ask the same question but with October bulletin and date moment are we inline with below figures or do we need to update the below figures

Below are the numbers from Spec in previous post's.

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[sai999]

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

[veni001]

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

sai,
Specs estimated EB2IC 485 numbers are based on I+C monthly PERM approvals (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)) after July 2007 with PD2007.

[veni001]

Monica

I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)



Spec

The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?

So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.

On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.

Here is MurthyLawFirms take (http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html) on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[qblogfan]

India and China should encourage the immigration to the western countries. The long wait can't stop us!


I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

[qblogfan]

My date is 1/20/2008. Good luck to both of us!


My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.

[qblogfan]

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?


Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take (http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html) on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[qblogfan]

I have the same feeling! I am so axious to check every EB immigration website for info. I check this forum and mitbbs 20 times per day in some days. I hope you can green soon!


My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

[veni001]

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

qblogfan,
That's true, my understanding from the attorney's take on October VB is that USCIS/DOS can build the "pipeline" by advancing dates but only issue VISA numbers allowed by law!

[nishant2200]

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "


Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take (http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html) on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[veni001]

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "

Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

[soggadu]

,
It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

[muntazir]

Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

[nishant2200]

Nope, don't think so. Thank you Veni.


Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

[qesehmk]

muntazir how about infopass to know what's going on with your case?

Can an extension of EAD save you from jeopardizing your employment?

I would also recommend keeping a record of all communication ... so that if you lose your employment because of these delays and choose to sue USCIS then you have something to show.

Really sorry to hear your case. Did you contact IV too ... just in case?


Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

[qblogfan]

nothing new on mitbbs. NIU is pusing the 27% spillover and we hope Mr.CO can approve EB2 C&I in each quarter, not just in the summer.

People are mad and frustrated.


,

hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

[qblogfan]

I don't know whether gurus have posted the new statistics of PERM. Last year there were 28000 non-India/China PERM filed in the first nine months.

We can make an estimation of the demand from ROW. South Korea has a higher demand than China, but they have no retrogression at all.

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[soggadu]

Nope, don't think so. Thank you Veni.

hmm...also...keep "DONT THINK SO" until we both get current ok!!!!....

[Kanmani]

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

Sai999

This demand data by Spec , you are refering to is the total of India+China demand including PWMB but excluding porting

Your 10K is India alone or I+C ?

[skpanda]

Folks.. i am looking for some urgent help.. if any of you have experience in renewing your passport in the Indian consulates in USA.. can you please answer my question below -

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?160-Passport-renewal-in-CGI-Houstan

Thanks much!

Once my query is answered.. i will delete this post.. sorry to digress from the purpose of this thread....

[muntazir]

muntazir how about infopass to know what's going on with your case?

Can an extension of EAD save you from jeopardizing your employment?

Really sorry to hear your case. Did you contact IV too ... just in case?

I'll consider getting an InfoPass. End of the day I'll be held responsible for not filing before 90 days (no godly clue why a simple renewal takes 90-120 days after charging 380 bucks!?!). 2 yrs ago it took just 40 days. HR lady made it clear that I cannot remain employed without EAD. But since I've been a permanent employee for 3 yrs I would hope it'll be unpaid leave.

Not sure what "IV" is? Is there a ball park time frame that you believe before which the pending 2006 EB2 folks will get their GCs?

[geterdone]

If you submit all the documents they need you should get it in 2 weeks. I renewed my PP (issued in India) in Houston and had no problem. I don't think you need to worry about verification with india. I went to the consulate to give my docs and got it back in 2 weeks by Fedex. Now this was 2 yrs back, things might have changed since. I know they have outsourced PIO card processing.



Folks.. i am looking for some urgent help.. if any of you have experience in renewing your passport in the Indian consulates in USA.. can you please answer my question below -

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?160-Passport-renewal-in-CGI-Houstan

Thanks much!

Once my query is answered.. i will delete this post.. sorry to digress from the purpose of this thread....

[veni001]

I don't know whether gurus have posted the new statistics of PERM. Last year there were 28000 non-India/China PERM filed in the first nine months.

We can make an estimation of the demand from ROW. South Korea has a higher demand than China, but they have no retrogression at all.
........................
........................


qblogfan,
Yes, we nailed it back in August! (post#6864 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011/page275))

[qblogfan]

Thanks for pointing it out. Gurus covered everything! :)


qblogfan,
Yes, we nailed it back in August! (post#6864 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011/page275))

[sai999]

Sai999

This demand data by Spec , you are refering to is the total of India+China demand including PWMB but excluding porting

Your 10K is India alone or I+C ?

Kanmani,

Yes i am referring to both I + C ,i am still not convinced with September 2007 we have pending 14,778 applications,i am thinking of around 10-12 k for both I+C ( Including PWMB + Porting) and i am thinking of porting is less than 3-4 k in whole year.By seeing all these factors and date movement in October i am thinking of dates can to go end 2008 to fill the pipe line.

Please let me know your thoughts...

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[grnwtg]

qblogfan,
Yes, we nailed it back in August! (post#6864 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011/page275))

I am seeing various posts that by end of 2012, date might not even go past nov-dec 2007.
According our gurus - till march'2007 there is 30000 Demand ( with porting and pwmb), is this including multiple of 2.25/2.07? or else we need to multiply 30000*2.07/2.25?

1) If 30000 includes spouse/child, then if we assume there is 22000 spill over next year ( so it reaches around november), does co need to move dates forwards by few months so as to build up inventory for 2013 and as a result of it do we need to assume there is optimistic possibility that people till mar-may 2008 might get their EAD?? by end 2012 ( I mean December 2012)/March 2013?
And also i remember nvc receipts for consular processing usually given 1 year in advance.
2) if the 30000 needs to be multiplied then it highly impossible to reach pd even March by 2014 - hope this is not case

[nishant2200]

I'll consider getting an InfoPass. End of the day I'll be held responsible for not filing before 90 days (no godly clue why a simple renewal takes 90-120 days after charging 380 bucks!?!). 2 yrs ago it took just 40 days. HR lady made it clear that I cannot remain employed without EAD. But since I've been a permanent employee for 3 yrs I would hope it'll be unpaid leave.

Not sure what "IV" is? Is there a ball park time frame that you believe before which the pending 2006 EB2 folks will get their GCs?

IV is Immigration Voice, google it to find website

EAD policy is dependent on company, some allow just leave of absence, some don't, really sorry. I have heard that if it's more than 90 days, you can take infopass, and they give you temporary EAD card.

I am not sure why you still don't have GC, but I don't think dates will ever retrogress that far back, so you should always be current.

[nishant2200]

The figures by Spec I think he uses 2.05 dependant factor, but he can answer better.

I can say though that the figures include the dependents. If not, I would have considered going to timbuktoo to stay in a hole in the ground :)


I am seeing various posts that by end of 2012, date might not even go past nov-dec 2007.
According our gurus - till march'2007 there is 30000 Demand ( with porting and pwmb), is this including multiple of 2.25/2.07? or else we need to multiply 30000*2.07/2.25?

1) If 30000 includes spouse/child, then if we assume there is 22000 spill over next year ( so it reaches around november), does co need to move dates forwards by few months so as to build up inventory for 2013 and as a result of it do we need to assume there is optimistic possibility that people till mar-may 2008 might get their EAD?? by end 2012 ( I mean December 2012)/March 2013?
And also i remember nvc receipts for consular processing usually given 1 year in advance.
2) if the 30000 needs to be multiplied then it highly impossible to reach pd even March by 2014 - hope this is not case

[grnwtg]

My take on this would be that , its difficult to judge data by 2k/3k accuracy. As i quoted previously
1) I have some ( i can personally count atleast 30 with confidence and most of them got married after 2008 so they have child only after that) female batch mates from Masters whose priority dates were in 2007 and 2008 who already got their GC's from their Husbands apps
2) apart from it i have few friends who got multiple labors which 2007 and first half of 2008 priority dates ( These people jumped from Desi consultancies to Full time Employment, i can count 4-5 of them as everybody does not declare this openly).
3) There is no definite agreement on amount of porting people as it depends on strictness of application validation, if they are strict in validation it might be same as this year or even less orelse it might even jump high.
But probably my personal contacts might be different from others.



Kanmani,

Yes i am referring to both I + C ,i am still not convinced with September 2007 we have pending 14,778 applications,i am thinking of around 10-12 k for both I+C ( Including PWMB + Porting) and i am thinking of porting is less than 3-4 k in whole year.By seeing all these factors and date movement in October i am thinking of dates can to go end 2008 to fill the pipe line.

Please let me know your thoughts...

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[grnwtg]

Thanks for Calrification Nishant.


The figures by Spec I think he uses 2.05 dependant factor, but he can answer better.

I can say though that the figures include the dependents. If not, I would have considered going to timbuktoo to stay in a hole in the ground :)

[grnwtg]

Romney's take on Immigration ( week old), I did quick search with 'Romney' and it not return any post, sorry if it was Repost

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9219797/Romney_sees_tech_skills_shortage_and_H_1B_visa_nee d

Looks like perry is also supporter of high tech immigration

[cbpds1]

The below line is misleading
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
I thought porting =5000 should have been negated by the yearly (I+C)quota of 5606.

There fore to reach December 2007 (incl porting) will still need 20,888 SO.


Kanmani,

Yes i am referring to both I + C ,i am still not convinced with September 2007 we have pending 14,778 applications,i am thinking of around 10-12 k for both I+C ( Including PWMB + Porting) and i am thinking of porting is less than 3-4 k in whole year.By seeing all these factors and date movement in October i am thinking of dates can to go end 2008 to fill the pipe line.

Please let me know your thoughts...

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[Kanmani]

Sai

I+C ALREADY SUBMITTED (during 2007 fiasco Apr 15 to aug17) = 8350 *

As Veni already replied you inthe earlier post , Spectator has compiled PERM data into a table which shows number of People whose perm approved after Aug 2007 (CHINA & INDIA )as follows

- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 24 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ------ 74 --- 0.48%
Feb-07 ---- 44 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 114 --- 0.74%
Mar-07 ---- 71 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 2 ----- 150 --- 0.98%
Apr-07 --- 212 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 310 --- 2.02%
May-07 --- 495 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 ----- 698 --- 4.55%
Jun-07 --- 721 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,107 --- 7.21%
Jul-07 --- 471 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 5 --- 1,201 --- 7.82%
Aug-07 --- 567 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 8 --- 2,100 -- 13.68%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 14.94%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 7 --- 2,628 -- 17.11%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 7 --- 2,434 -- 15.85%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 13 --- 2,247 -- 14.63%
Total -- 2,705 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 56 -- 15,356 - 100.00%

From the above table you can see PERM from Apr 15 to Sept 30 is atleast 7554 .

This 7554 perm would provide atleast 7000 EB2 485s (which includes primary+ dependents )

I guess your estimation is too low

* Total from Demand Data of oct bulletin







Kanmani,

Yes i am referring to both I + C ,i am still not convinced with September 2007 we have pending 14,778 applications,i am thinking of around 10-12 k for both I+C ( Including PWMB + Porting) and i am thinking of porting is less than 3-4 k in whole year.By seeing all these factors and date movement in October i am thinking of dates can to go end 2008 to fill the pipe line.

Please let me know your thoughts...

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[nishant2200]

cbpds1, I would say that more and more we see the figures, it becomes fuzzy. I myself sometimes have an eureka moment like this, and then Spec, Veni , Q or Teddy point out my theory can be recycled :)

Let's wait for the great Spectator to rise and answer this. We have surely rubbed the lamp for the genie to arise.


The below line is misleading
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
I thought porting =5000 should have been negated by the yearly (I+C)quota of 5606.

There fore to reach December 2007 (incl porting) will still need 20,888 SO.

[qblogfan]

Some thoughts:

The current immigrant system is not protecting labor at all. From PERM process to I140 process, employers can hide everything and the employees have no rights to ask or check the application at all. The current immigration system maximizes the rights and power of the employers and give no rights to employees.

Now for Indian and Chinese GC applicants, we may have to wait for 4-5 years before we can submit 485. During these 4-5 years, we are kept in darkness. We don't know what the employers did and we can be cheated by the employers easily. This is ridiculous!

Luckily I came to know FOIA process from Indian friends and finally got my 140 application secretly. My company didn't give me any document in the past 4-5 years. This system is designed and used to exploit foreign labor and has no protection of the employee's interest at all!

It's not a fair system, it's cold blooded, especially for the Chinese and Indian applicants who have to wait for 4-5 years before the submission of 485. A guy on mitbbs was cheated and he was kept in darkness for 4-5 years and finally the company told him they didn't do anything for him. He couldn't do anything to his company, although he was cheated and wasted 4-5 years of his youth.

This system does not protect employee interests at all. It's explicit exploitation. Sorry for my words. I encourage everybody to use FOIA to check employer's work. We can't take the risk of being cheated. Here is the form for FOIA request. It took me six months to get it. I would recommend you to get it as soon as your 140 is approved.

www.uscis.gov/files/form/g-639.pdf

[bieber]

The below line is misleading
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
I thought porting =5000 should have been negated by the yearly (I+C)quota of 5606.

There fore to reach December 2007 (incl porting) will still need 20,888 SO.

spec's table shows how many visas needed, total required is 25k, regardless you call out the quota separately or not 25k is the number

[familyguy]

every day I pray to god for giving me an opportunity to work for an excellent employer... my employer is very transparent, shares each and every document with me... i know not every one gets a good employer like mine... in fact my previous employer was blood sucker, just like yours...


Some thoughts:

The current immigrant system is not protecting labor at all. From PERM process to I140 process, employers can hide everything and the employees have no rights to ask or check the application at all. The current immigration system maximizes the rights and power of the employers and give no rights to employees.

Now for Indian and Chinese GC applicants, we may have to wait for 4-5 years before we can submit 485. During these 4-5 years, we are kept in darkness. We don't know what the employers did and we can be cheated by the employers easily. This is ridiculous!

Luckily I came to know FOIA process from Indian friends and finally got my 140 application secretly. My company didn't give me any document in the past 4-5 years. This system is designed and used to exploit foreign labor and has no protection of the employee's interest at all!

It's not a fair system, it's cold blooded, especially for the Chinese and Indian applicants who have to wait for 4-5 years before the submission of 485. A guy on mitbbs was cheated and he was kept in darkness for 4-5 years and finally the company told him they didn't do anything for him. He couldn't do anything to his company, although he was cheated and wasted 4-5 years of his youth.

This system does not protect employee interest at all. It's explicit exploitation. Sorry for my words. I encourage everybody to use FOIA to check employer's work. We can't take the risk of being cheated.

[qblogfan]

Yes, it depends on luck. Some of my friends' companies allow them to do PERM/140 by themselves. From PERM to 140, the employees can keep track of every details, but my company only uses their own attorney and I can't access any document/file they filed. The only document their mailed to me was the last page of PERM approval notice and they asked me to sign it. They didn't even mail me the first several pages of the PERM file.

FOIA is the best way to verify and counter attack the evil employers like mine.


every day I pray to god for giving me an opportunity to work for an excellent employer... my employer is very transparent, shares each and every document with me... i know not every one gets a good employer like mine... in fact my previous employer was blood sucker, just like yours...

[cbpds1]

Spec's thread in FACTS and DATA section says "How Much Spillover is Required?"

In this thread the last sentence before the numbers says "Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD)."
The column header says
------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting
<Data table>


When folks look at the numbers they think they need xxx spillover and 5.6k is not considered.
Certain predictions made earlier based on Spec's numbers as SO required did not consider 5.6k regular quota

Am just trying to see if we made a small mistake assuming it as SOFAD instead of number of visas required.




spec's table shows how many visas needed, total required is 25k, regardless you call out the quota separately or not 25k is the number

[cool_mj007]

Qblogfan - thanks for sharing the info.

By law companies have to hide certain pieces of information from the beneficiary, for example the recruiting process during PERM which requires advertising and seeking any US citizens for the job can (should) not be shared with the beneficiary to keep it fair and unbiased.
But at the completion of each milestone the companies must provide the evidence to the beneficiary such as a copy of the petitions filed/approved etc.
However I have a few friends who faced issues getting the information from their employers for various reasons. FOIA is a great tool to protect the beneficiary in those situations.

[cbpds1]

If you see the Teddy's calculation in the below thread, I decipher that he may be adding porting and then using Spec's numbers as Spillover required and not considering 5.6k regular quota.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=8340#post8340

Disclaimer: I may be totally wrong as I have not done any number crunching but have been a silent observer of the calc


spec's table shows how many visas needed, total required is 25k, regardless you call out the quota separately or not 25k is the number

[imdeng]

Wow - this data is amazing. I had no idea that India is now accounting for such a large proportion of GC applications. Could you please share the source qblogfan?

This is based in Labor filings - so I guess it includes EB-2+3 but not EB1. This probably means that PD for EB-India will continue to be atrociously behind. EB-China will perhaps move much faster than India until spillover forces them to get matched. Even counting for that, in near future we might reach a situation where India is the only retrogressed country in EB-2 and EB-2C is current as well.

Its quite amazing that South Korea is not retrogressed. I read somewhere that South Koreans now form the largest foreign student group in US - so it might just be a matter of time before EB-SK gets backlogged. However, the counterpoint is that in my experience a lot more SK students go back to Korea than Indian or Chinese students.



2011 Top Green Card Countries
1 India 28,363
2 South Korea 3,360
3 China 3,245
4 Mexico 3,237
5 Canada 2,767
6 Philippines 2,310
7 Pakistan 893
8 Japan 871
9 United Kingdom 834

[veni001]

Wow - this data is amazing. I had no idea that India is now accounting for such a large proportion of GC applications. Could you please share the source qblogfan?

This is based in Labor filings - so I guess it includes EB-2+3 but not EB1. This probably means that PD for EB-India will continue to be atrociously behind. EB-China will perhaps move much faster than India until spillover forces them to get matched. Even counting for that, in near future we might reach a situation where India is the only retrogressed country in EB-2 and EB-2C is current as well.

Its quite amazing that South Korea is not retrogressed. I read somewhere that South Koreans now form the largest foreign student group in US - so it might just be a matter of time before EB-SK gets backlogged. However, the counterpoint is that in my experience a lot more SK students go back to Korea than Indian or Chinese students.

imdeng,
Please check FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)) for lot more info on EB.

[qblogfan]

We don't want to get their secret information, but the fact is that the employer can refuse to provide any evidence of the completion of each step.

My employer didn't give me even one piece of paper as evidence of approval of PERM/140. I never got any copy of anything. When I ask, they always say it's company property and I don't have rights to ask for anything before 485.

Approved I140 is company's property and we are also their properties just like the slaves in 1800s. The employers put their feet on our face, but we can't argue or fight because our xxxxxxx is fasterned by GC. When we fight the employers with Kong Fu, our xxxxxx will be painful.


Qblogfan - thanks for sharing the info.

By law companies have to hide certain pieces of information from the beneficiary, for example the recruiting process during PERM which requires advertising and seeking any US citizens for the job can (should) not be shared with the beneficiary to keep it fair and unbiased.
But at the completion of each milestone the companies must provide the evidence to the beneficiary such as a copy of the petitions filed/approved etc.
However I have a few friends who faced issues getting the information from their employers for various reasons. FOIA is a great tool to protect the beneficiary in those situations.

[qblogfan]

I copied it from MITBBS, but I think originally it was from USCIS. Sorry for missing source.

SK EB2 can get GC in 1 year or less.


Wow - this data is amazing. I had no idea that India is now accounting for such a large proportion of GC applications. Could you please share the source qblogfan?

This is based in Labor filings - so I guess it includes EB-2+3 but not EB1. This probably means that PD for EB-India will continue to be atrociously behind. EB-China will perhaps move much faster than India until spillover forces them to get matched. Even counting for that, in near future we might reach a situation where India is the only retrogressed country in EB-2 and EB-2C is current as well.

Its quite amazing that South Korea is not retrogressed. I read somewhere that South Koreans now form the largest foreign student group in US - so it might just be a matter of time before EB-SK gets backlogged. However, the counterpoint is that in my experience a lot more SK students go back to Korea than Indian or Chinese students.

[TeddyKoochu]

If you see the Teddy's calculation in the below thread, I decipher that he may be adding porting and then using Spec's numbers as Spillover required and not considering 5.6k regular quota.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=8340#post8340

Disclaimer: I may be totally wrong as I have not done any number crunching but have been a silent observer of the calc

SOFAD by definition means numbers from all sources so it includes the 5.6K.

[TeddyKoochu]

I'll consider getting an InfoPass. End of the day I'll be held responsible for not filing before 90 days (no godly clue why a simple renewal takes 90-120 days after charging 380 bucks!?!). 2 yrs ago it took just 40 days. HR lady made it clear that I cannot remain employed without EAD. But since I've been a permanent employee for 3 yrs I would hope it'll be unpaid leave.

Not sure what "IV" is? Is there a ball park time frame that you believe before which the pending 2006 EB2 folks will get their GCs?

I think you should consider Info pass or call their 1800 number and speak to a level 2 person, there should be a number attached to your case, hopefully they can green you right then if you get to a good person. All the best.

[veni001]

EB2 - South Korea has been using significant VISAs from past few years.

FY2011(Q1-Q3) saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.

South Korea: PERM Data:

FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Approved = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)

FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Completions = 3,360 (~15.5% decrease)
Approved = 2,632
Denied/Withdrawn = 728 (21.67%)


I copied it from MITBBS, but I think originally it was from USCIS. Sorry for missing source.

SK EB2 can get GC in 1 year or less.

qblogfan,

SK demand was down for FY2011, coupled with lower filings and higher denial rate!

[Sandeep2011]

Folks.. i am looking for some urgent help.. if any of you have experience in renewing your passport in the Indian consulates in USA.. can you please answer my question below -

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?160-Passport-renewal-in-CGI-Houstan

Thanks much!

Once my query is answered.. i will delete this post.. sorry to digress from the purpose of this thread....

SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

[veni001]

SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

Sandeep,
That's not always true, they do some applications randomly and i was one of them last year.
For my PP renewal it took about 10 weeks.
Good Luck.

[Sandeep2011]

Sandeep,
That's not always true, they do some applications randomly and i was one of them last year.
For my PP renewal it took about 10 weeks.
Good Luck.

Thanks for correcting. I was not aware of anyone whose application had to go through police verification.

[skpanda]

Thanks.. i do not have ration card or voter id card in india.. infact i do not even have a PAN card...

i have never heard of voter id card... where do we get that?

instructions say that i have to give two pieces of address proof. I assumed that they meant the address proof of USA. Do they need address proof for India address where I do not live??

Also.. the indian address on my passport is not the same address where my parents live... will that be a problem?


Thanks!


SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

[vizcard]

Thanks for correcting. I was not aware of anyone whose application had to go through police verification.

Also, in NY ( not sure about other locations) if you haven't got a passport in NY before, the PP is valid only for a year but you can reapply in 3months to extend to 10 years.

[Spectator]

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[qesehmk]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single :)

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.




All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to move off-topic. Just got a reply from Senator Durbin for the letters and the e-mail that I sent by signing the petition before a week or so. For people like me who are stuck in this mess and has a PD of 2011, some kind of immigration reform is the only hope.
__________________________________________________ _____________________


Dear Dr. -----:

Thank you for your message regarding the green card backlog. I appreciate hearing from you.

I am pleased to be an original cosponsor of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2011, S. 1258. Several provisions address family and employment visa reforms. Among these reforms, this bill would recapture unused visas from Fiscal Year (FY) 1992 through 1997. S. 1258 also would increase immigration visas for children and siblings of United States citizens and provide a specific visa allocation for unmarried children of permanent resident aliens. In addition, this bill would allow workers who are eligible for permanent resident status adjustment but for whom a visa number is unavailable to apply for adjustment.

As the son of an immigrant, I believe one of America's strengths is its diversity. It is in our national interest to build upon that strength through a system that maximizes the positive opportunities legal immigration affords by allowing qualified immigrants to contribute to our economy and share their talents and strengths with our communities.


I support efforts to enhance the efficiency and accountability of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). It is essential to protect the safety and due process rights of our nation's immigrants at our borders, while fully enforcing our immigration laws and protecting our national security. In the past several years, USCIS and other agencies have implemented policies to reduce the backlog of visa applications. In addition, Congress has appropriated funds specifically for reducing backlogs at USCIS.

The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act has been referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which I am a member. I will continue to keep your concerns in mind as the Senate considers these issues further. Thank you again for contacting me.

Sincerely,
Richard J. Durbin
United States Senator

__________________________________________________ ______________________

I don't care whether it is Republicans or Democrats in power, but they should do something about the plight of the legal immigrants stuck in this EB2-EB3 mess and I hope they have some kind of bipartisan agreement on this issue. Have a good weekend to all and congratulations to those who got current this visa bulletin.

[red2green]

Qblogfan - thanks for sharing the info.

By law companies have to hide certain pieces of information from the beneficiary, for example the recruiting process during PERM which requires advertising and seeking any US citizens for the job can (should) not be shared with the beneficiary to keep it fair and unbiased.
But at the completion of each milestone the companies must provide the evidence to the beneficiary such as a copy of the petitions filed/approved etc.
However I have a few friends who faced issues getting the information from their employers for various reasons. FOIA is a great tool to protect the beneficiary in those situations.

Hi, I am new to this forum. Thank you all for the wonderful discussions and taking time to help others out.

Have any of you here used FOIA to get the I140 approval copy ? My cousin's employer doesn't share approval copies other than telling her PD is 2/22/08 and filed in EB2. Is it possible for her to get I-140 approval copy using FOIA ? Any help & instructions on this is greatly appreciated. If it is already discussed, please point me to the link. Thanks again.

[veni001]

Some thoughts:

................
................

Luckily I came to know FOIA process from Indian friends and finally got my 140 application secretly. My company didn't give me any document in the past 4-5 years. This system is designed and used to exploit foreign labor and has no protection of the employee's interest at all!

It's not a fair system, it's cold blooded, especially for the Chinese and Indian applicants who have to wait for 4-5 years before the submission of 485. A guy on mitbbs was cheated and he was kept in darkness for 4-5 years and finally the company told him they didn't do anything for him. He couldn't do anything to his company, although he was cheated and wasted 4-5 years of his youth.

This system does not protect employee interests at all. It's explicit exploitation. Sorry for my words. I encourage everybody to use FOIA to check employer's work. We can't take the risk of being cheated. Here is the form for FOIA request. It took me six months to get it. I would recommend you to get it as soon as your 140 is approved.

www.uscis.gov/files/form/g-639.pdf


Hi, I am new to this forum. Thank you all for the wonderful discussions and taking time to help others out.

Have any of you here used FOIA to get the I140 approval copy ? My cousin's employer doesn't share approval copies other than telling her PD is 2/22/08 and filed in EB2. Is it possible for her to get I-140 approval copy using FOIA ? Any help & instructions on this is greatly appreciated. If it is already discussed, please point me to the link. Thanks again.

red2green,
Yes, our qblogfan did use FOIA to get his approved 140, please see his post above.

[cool_mj007]

Spectator and all other gurus,
When you provide an updated table for spillover (or any other estimations) would it be possible to do some scenario analysis?
So instead of saying the spillover could be X would it be possible to give out a range and say with optimistic assumptions it could be X, with conservative assumptions it could be Y and a more realistic assumption could be Z.
That might give us a better understanding on how dates could proceed.
I would be happy to help with any data cleaning and scenario building as you might find appropriate.
Thanks again for all your insights and support.



All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[soggadu]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single :)

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

you do have a good comic timing Mr.Q.....

[Monica12]

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.
Spec, we are all eagerly waiting but will be patient... Enjoy your vacation :)

[Trident]

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

[qesehmk]

Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.


Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

[Trident]

Thanks Q...My company is working hard to send the application on 30th Sept so it reaches by 01st Oct. (kinda of lucky - they are putting pressure on me).

I dont see anything that should delay and am trying to get all the paperwork to them soon. Medical tests are the only thing thats not in my control. Hopefully there are no issues with that :)



Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.

[Monica12]

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.
Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

[Trident]

Thanks Monica...

Is there any links or post resource, we could use it as a checklist and reference ....



Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

[Spectator]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single :)

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.

[qesehmk]

LoL!! We need to have a virtual beer fest to bring clarity to this pain point !!


Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.

[nishant2200]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

[veni001]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

Nishant,
Assuming USCIS/DOS are thinking in the right direction, this is the reason for early EB2IC movement!

[RMS_V13]

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

[veni001]

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

RMS_V13,
Economy was great in 2007 and early 2008.

Please check I+C Monthly PERM approvals in 2007 and 2008 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown))(or FY-CY matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)), to find answer to your question.

[veni001]

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

Trident,
I agree with Monica's comments, even though they process FIFO basis, we are expecting only few thousand EB2IC filers based on OCT VB movement. No need to rush but make sure your lawyer has everything in the package before sending to USCIS.

[RMS_V13]

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[RMS_V13]

Anyone please?


Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[Kanmani]

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

[qesehmk]

RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)


Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[veni001]

Anyone please?

RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)) Section.

[RMS_V13]

Kanmani,
Thanks for the response.
Kinda understand how it works now
Best,
-R

RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

[RMS_V13]

Thanks Q,
I did go through the link that Veni gave. That was useful. However, it is practically impossible going through this thread, that is so long. For regular users, it may be a pain to repeatedly answer the same question, but this is probably the 1st time I am even paying attention to the numbers and there may be several people like me.
Anyhoo, I will try to go through this thread when time permits.
-R


RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)

[RMS_V13]

Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?


RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)) Section.

[nishant2200]

Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?

As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

[RMS_V13]

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?


They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k.

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?

Veni n Spec have compiled lots of data in facts and data section of this blog. Spec has very cleverly also used iCert (http://icert.doleta.gov/) data to estimate EB2 EB3 splits.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)

The original source: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

[Kanmani]

Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

[nishant2200]

Excellent points K.

Can u enlighten us on ur thoughts about dependent factor for C.


Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

[Kanmani]

Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works with 2007
and China porting is lesser than India


For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples
Moreover Eb2 : Eb3 ratio for India is constantly changing year to year

[nishant2200]

Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works even with 2007 .

For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples

Very astute observation, I am discovering this these days and am amazed at the quantum of this. Let's hope that these kind of unknowns affect us positively, in terms of reducing the actual incoming 485 applications when dates move. A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.

[Spectator]

A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

[Spectator]

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf


United States Department of State

Visa Services

Washington, D.C. 20520

URGENT URGENT URGENT

September 15, 2011

TO: CIS Section 245 ADJUDICATIONS

FROM: Immigrant Visa Control

SUBJECT: Authorizations for ALL Employment preference Cases

Effective immediately it has been necessary to stop
authorizations in response to requests for ALL Employment
preference cases for the remainder of FY-2011. This action has
been necessary because the FY-2011 Employment annual limit has
now been reached. Numbers will once again be available for all
Employment categories beginning October 1, 2011 under their
FY2012 annual numerical limitation.

The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,
in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and
subsequent processing. All USCIS Offices may continue to process
Employment preference cases and submit them in the normal
manner. Such cases will be held in the Visa Office's "Pending
Demand" file.

On October 3, 2011, authorizations will be made covering all
eligible cases which had been entered into the Pending Demand
from September 15, 2011 through September 30, 2011 and are
within the applicable October cut-off date.

Please be sure that this information is passed to all personnel
involved in the process of obtaining visa authorizations from
the Visa Office for Section 245 cases.

URGENT URGENT URGENT

It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

[Kanmani]

Thank you Spec

So it is clearly evident that the october bulletin EB2IC PD advance is purely for building pipeline but not for 2011 leftovers .

[bangaru]

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".

[red2green]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

Do you guys see a quarterly Spill Over as a possibility this year ? It is obvious that there will be at least 15000(worst case scenario) spill over to EB2 IC in FY2012. So I am hoping they would spill over 5000 visa numbers every quarter for first 3 quarters and for Q4, do a fresh estimate and use remaining SOs for the Q4.

Q1 - 5000 SO + 1400 ( From regular I+C quarterly)--> 6400 --> Majority of cases(if not all) who filed 485 in 2007 get GC in next 2 months
Q2 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Aug'17th get GC by Feb'2012
Q3 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Nov'1st get GC by June'1st
Q4 - 1400 + remaining SO(guessing 7000) ---> This should let all PDs upto March/April'2012 get GC by the end of Q4.

I just put the numbers with whatever the limited knowledge I gained in last month. So please let me know if I am making any sense ? The other reason they should do quarterly SO, that will distribute their work load across the year rather than working extremely hard in last quarter(as happend in FY2011).

[nishant2200]

That's great, removes my misconception. We missed you Spec.


nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

[nishant2200]

Dont worry, they are referring to the info given by USCIS about the 12k demand which stalled the Sep VB. They are indicating they have satisfied that visa demand by USCIS completely and have run out.

And also that demand was genuinely true, they really ran out, cant argue with that.

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".

[saky007]

Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.



As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

[nishant2200]

Saky, they can always repeat same demand generation in Q1 of next FY. Unless they are into quarterly SO in which case they can never be near a zone where inventory is less than 10k.


Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.

[veni001]

That's great, removes my misconception. We missed you Spec.

Nishant,
PD is not translatable between spouses. But one can fall back on spouse EB2 application if PD is current. I pointed possibility of this trend earlier with EB3 PD progression.

Example: Both spouses filed their i485 under EB3 PD2005 during July 2007 fiasco using spouse1 approved I140.

Spouse2 got EB2 I140 approved in late 2006/early 2007.

In this case when spouse2 EB2 PD is current either they can interfile/withdraw/re-file under EB2.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant,
PD is not translatable between spouses. But one can fall back on spouse EB2 application if PD is current. I pointed possibility of this trend earlier with EB3 PD progression.

Example: Both spouses filed their i485 under EB3 PD2005 during July 2007 fiasco using spouse1 approved I140.

Spouse2 got EB2 I140 approved in late 2006/early 2007.

In this case when spouse2 EB2 PD is current either they can interfile/withdraw/re-file under EB2.

Veni great catch, this definitely is one of the contributing factors in EB3-India moving faster in the last few VB's. as you have said Also there are people (Same person not spouse) with 2 sets of applications they filed in Jul 07 with their older EB3 PD, filed another 485 later with a later pre 2007 EB2 PD could not port date due to various reasons, in some cases they even had to file 485 again. I have read about few such cases on IV they got their GC's recently, one example is a handle – ‘frostrated’, he had a 2004 EB3 PD and a 2006 EB2 PD for some reasons could not port the dates so had to wait for the EB2 date to get current. These kind of cases are also bumping up porting projections.

[Trident]

Thanks Veni...Q indicated that your dates are similar like mine. Hopefully they dont retrogress the dates in the coming bulletin's. Fingers crossed.

I should be able to post a checklist for 485 after I file.



Trident,
I agree with Monica's comments, even though they process FIFO basis, we are expecting only few thousand EB2IC filers based on OCT VB movement. No need to rush but make sure your lawyer has everything in the package before sending to USCIS.

[samudrala]

Found this link in Trackitt.

http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf

Gurus, any thoughts?

[Spectator]

Using the derived figures, this is how I see the rough situation, with a few days left in the FY.

------- Visas Used -- SOFAD
EB1 --------- 27.5 --- 12.6
EB2-M -------- 1.1 ---- 1.7
EB2-P -------- 2.4 ---- 0.4
EB2-ROW ----- 25.7 ---- 3.1
EB3 --------- 40.0 ---- N/A
EB4 ---------- 9.9 ---- 0.0
EB5 ---------- 3.8 ---- 6.2

Sub Total -- 110.4 --- 24.0

EB2-IC ------ 29.6 ---- 5.6

Total ------ 140.0 --- 29.6

On that basis, Porting & PWMB would total around 3.6k, meaning Porting was just over 3k. Note :- that assumes that all cases with a PD earlier than 15APR07 have been approved. That is not the case, so the number still awaiting approval would add to the 3.6k figure.

Take the figures with a pinch of salt because there is a large potential for variance in the calculated figures. Others may see it differently and be correct.

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know the true figures until January 2012, when DOS release the Visa Statistics, although usually some figures leak just before publication.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I agree with these numbers. But to come to your 3.6K PWMB+Porting conclusion, we need to see all EB2IC backlog until 15Apr2007 go away. Has it really? Or is there is a residual one left?

The residual if any - will neeed to be added to the portings + PWMB number.

Right?


Using the derived figures, this is how I see the rough situation, with a few days left in the FY.

------- Visas Used -- SOFAD
EB1 --------- 27.5 --- 12.6
EB2-M -------- 1.1 ---- 1.7
EB2-P -------- 2.4 ---- 0.4
EB2-ROW ----- 25.7 ---- 3.1
EB3 --------- 40.0 ---- N/A
EB4 ---------- 9.9 ---- 0.0
EB5 ---------- 3.8 ---- 6.2

Sub Total -- 110.4 --- 24.0

EB2-IC ------ 29.6 ---- 5.6

Total ------ 140.0 --- 29.6

On that basis, Porting & PWMB would total around 3.6k, meaning Porting was just over 3k.

Take the figures with a pinch of salt because there is a large potential for variance in the calculated figures. Others may see it differently and be correct.

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know the true figures until January 2012, when DOS release the Visa Statistics, although usually some figures leak just before publication.

[Spectator]

Spec

I agree with these numbers. But to come to your 3.6K PWMB+Porting conclusion, we need to see all EB2IC backlog until 15Apr2007 go away. Has it really? Or is there is a residual one left?

The residual if any - will neeed to be added to the portings + PWMB number.

Right?Q,

Totally agree with you. I was going to edit the post to make that point - I think I still will.

I can't get a handle on how many cases with PDs earlier than 15APR07 remain to be approved in FY2012. Those are headwinds to how far dates move next year.

What is your current thinking?

[qesehmk]

There are about 1000 EB2IC cases that are current but not approved in trackitt. That's about 10-15K cases (given that ratios have come down). I find it hard to believe these many people haven't updated trackitt when they have received GC.

As of now I can't make any intelliegent guess - how many of these are truly pending vs (gone back to India/China - approved - denied - ported etc)


Q,

Totally agree with you. I was going to edit the post to make that point - I think I still will.

I can't get a handle on how many cases with PDs earlier than 15APR07 remain to be approved in FY2012. Those are headwinds to how far dates move next year.

What is your current thinking?

[Spectator]

There are about 1000 EB2IC cases that are current but not approved in trackitt. That's about 10-15K cases (given that ratios have come down). I find it hard to believe these many people haven't updated trackitt when they have received GC.

As of now I can't make any intelliegent guess - how many of these are truly pending vs (gone back to India/China - approved - denied - ported etc)Q,

I see about 40 EB2-I pending primary cases that have been updated within the last 6 months with PDs between May 2006 and April 14 2007 (the movement this year) and 5 EB2-C.

That would translate to not more than 1k cases.

I don't know whether that is a sensible number either.

Note:- Edited from original, thanks to Q's eagle eye. Originally it said 240 cases for EB2-I

[qesehmk]

Are you sure? Somehow I find only 38 EB2IC cases that are pending and updated between Jan 2011 and today.


Q,

I see about 240 EB2-I pending primary cases that have been updated within the last 6 months with PDs between May 2006 and April 14 2007 (the movement this year) and 5 EB2-C.

That would translate to around 3-5k cases.

I don't know whether that is a sensible number either.

[Spectator]

Are you sure? Somehow I find only 38 EB2IC cases that are pending and updated between Jan 2011 and today.Q,

Oops!!

Thanks for pointing that out - I forgot to add the EB2 filter. I will edit my previous post.

That's 34 cases EB2-I cases updated in the last 6 months or 39 updated in 2011. For EB2-C the figure is 5.

That translates to probably not more than 1,000 cases, which sounds more sensible.

[geterdone]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

the numbers seem to be too low....is this correct and does this give any indication of how many eb2 I cases are waiting from jan 2008 to june 2011? sorry if this has been previously discussed and if yes please delete.

[qesehmk]

Spec.... there is one more question that we need to answer - "How is it possible that 1000 cases in trackitt are pending (i.e. 10-15K real cases) and they fail to update or even are interested in."

Question is how many of these were denied or went back?

That will also possibly increase portings+PWMBs. Right?


Q,

Oops!!

Thanks for pointing that out - I forgot to add the EB2 filter. I will edit my previous post.

That's 34 cases EB2-I cases updated in the last 6 months or 39 updated in 2011. For EB2-C the figure is 5.

That translates to probably not more than 1,000 cases, which sounds more sensible.

[nishant2200]

this was discussed earlier, this is only for Consular Processing, and hence it's low.


http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

the numbers seem to be too low....is this correct and does this give any indication of how many eb2 I cases are waiting from jan 2008 to june 2011? sorry if this has been previously discussed and if yes please delete.

[RMS_V13]

Pardon my lingo..I am still new to all this

What abt the NVC(sic) notices? What are the dates the notices(?) are being sent out to? Any updates?

There were some news about PD 2008 getting notices this past June etc?

[srimurthy]

I think the fab 5 should be employed with DOS or USCIS, then the date would move even faster.
On another note came across a company that is not in IT, but seem to be involved in some fraud. Especially promising the health scinces masters coming out of college with sponsorig for H1 and then collecting money as security deposit to be returned after two months of joining and then not even filing H1. Have know a few people who were effected because of this. Is there a way these guys can report to USCIS with details without the individuals being scrutinized as a witchhunt. I guess someone them returned to their home coutires too.
I wanted to check on this so that the firm doesnot trap others in future and also USCIS takes some action.

[kolugc]

Like the gurus predicted here... it looks like 2012 dates might move till mid Mar 2008.... because considering the spillover and considering the number of cases, that's where the line meets as some had mentioned before. But like in Oct 2011 (VB), they moved the dates by 3 months considering building the pipe line, this can happen in 2012 as well. So the VB's in 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we see the dates move beyond 15 Mar 2008 dates?

And considering the last couple of years or, so dates have moved more than an year each year... So by end of 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we have people with PD's of 2008 July eligible or getting current?

[vizcard]

Intellectually I get the math that the gurus have done but historically like you said the PD has moved 12-15 months in one FY. I'm hoping that it follows the same trend coz my PD is Aug 2008. Really conflicted here :)

[soggadu]

Like the gurus predicted here... it looks like 2012 dates might move till mid Mar 2008.... because considering the spillover and considering the number of cases, that's where the line meets as some had mentioned before. But like in Oct 2011 (VB), they moved the dates by 3 months considering building the pipe line, this can happen in 2012 as well. So the VB's in 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we see the dates move beyond 15 Mar 2008 dates?

And considering the last couple of years or, so dates have moved more than an year each year... So by end of 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we have people with PD's of 2008 July eligible or getting current?

koluuuuu and vizzzzz.... aap khataar mein hien...kripaya pratiksha kijiyee...

[Spectator]

Spec.... there is one more question that we need to answer - "How is it possible that 1000 cases in trackitt are pending (i.e. 10-15K real cases) and they fail to update or even are interested in."

Question is how many of these were denied or went back?

That will also possibly increase portings+PWMBs. Right?Q,

That number represents cases that may not have been updated over several FY - however long Trackitt has been running.

Over 100 have a PD that has never been Current, so are unlikely to be updated until the PD becomes Current. Others with older PD are just people who created a profile and then lost interest in Trackitt. It is surprising how many active members post about their approval, yet don't update their profile with the approval.

The ratio of Trackitt approvals to real approvals generally takes the un-updated cases into account.

There are around 4k total approvals of EB2-I in total on Trackitt. The number really only represents the 20% ish run rate for cases that are never updated.

Yes, there may be more with PDs earlier than the current Cut off Date that will be updated with an approval in the future that haven't been updated in the last 6 months or year, but if they haven't bothered to date, the number will probably be low.

Some may well be denied cases or people have just given up and gone back, but there is no way to know so, or how many they represent.

That is how I see it - it would be interesting to hear TK's view.