EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[rdsingh79]

Gurus...one question.
My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!

[Jan2008]

My PD date is feb 2008 and after the Sept bulletin I have prepared myself for 2 years wait (Which I might have to still) but when such news comes this becomes a true roller coaster ride which is what I hate. I will certainly not complain if I get it earlier but if not then the expectation becomes hard to manage. All in all I guess everyone who intents to immigrate has to go through this ride. Congrats to all to got it and hope rest of us get it soon.


Mine is 6th Jan 2008 :). Altough I know the wait for GC is 2 years but I really hope to get EAD & AP much faster so I can attend my brothers engagement in March next year with no worry of getting H1 stamping done. Do wishes really come true :)??

[veni001]

I am current!!!!

rahil,
Congrats!

[veni001]

Gurus...one question.
My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!

rdsingh,
Chances for EAD are 100%.

[qblogfan]

congratulations!

I understand your feelings! It's great to know you are current!


Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !

[Monica12]

Congratulations Pch, Leo, Gcdespo, Rahil, Gcseeker, 03may07 and anyone else that I'm forgetting right now :)
Thank you Soggadu, Veni, beiber, mesan behen, Q, Qblogfan and others :)
Here's sincerely hoping we all get our GC soon and there's more & more movement in the coming visa bulletins *fingers crossed*
Something tells me there should be more movement in Nov and Dec vb :) Hopefully, my gut feeling is right....

[imechanix]

Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

“If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

Peace be upon you!

[qesehmk]

Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.


Gurus...one question.
My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!


By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

imechanix congrats to you too!! Haven't visited india in 10 years? Dont mean to intrude if personal problems. But otherwise why?

[qblogfan]

I am glad to know you can visit India after 10 years. I understand the pain of waiting.


Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

“If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

Peace be upon you!

[imechanix]

imechanix congrats to you too!! Haven't visited india in 10 years? Dont mean to intrude if personal problems. But otherwise why?

My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

[nishant2200]

All the best. Thanks for ur kind words.

I am still wrecking my brains on this movement. What is the idea behind it, what is in CO's mind?!

1. Is it possible that this can utilize numbers from FY 2011 in case visas were going to be wasted
2. Is this for quarterly SO projection
3. Is this just to get PWMB in, and based on how many PWMB come in, CO will do the next intake movement.

Some lessons I think we can take:
1. CO can and will move dates to take in inventory, purely justifying it on this very reason, to generate demand, he doesn't really need a trigger or a big deal reason
2. CO is sensitive to workload on USCIS and movements will be in short bursts, I feel
3. CO is aware of PWMB concept
4. CO has a handle with CIS on how many 485s come in, these new 485s will take sometime to show up in demand data, yet the language in VB indicates, he wants to take in intake until there is enough demand

Doubts:
1. What is enough demand?
2. What is the plan behind honoring this 3 month movement, since this particular territory is mainly of pre-adjudicated 485s. Is he alloting something leftover from previous FY, is he doing quarterly SO early on, is he giving out the 5.5k qouta in one shot to get to the tipping point, and .... Etc
3. What will be timing of his next move


Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

“If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

Peace be upon you!

[nishant2200]

My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

I understand. One of my colleague is stuck in stamping, and we are guessing its because he is muslim, and from Kashmir. Ours is good earning private software company, there is no consulting, no one else has faced any problems ever.

[qblogfan]

Many Chinese H1B workers and F1 students got stuck in China for one year or two years. Finally they gave up and found jobs back home.

It depends on which area you are working or studying at. If your area is sensitive and high tech, you will be checked for sure. This is their method to cut off your communications with your home country.


My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

[Kanmani]

imechanix

I am emotional right now after reading your post . Congrats .

Nishant I wonder the same is running in my mind too.

[qesehmk]

imechanix .... I feel for you my friend. May you be able to go back and visit family and friends ASAP. Your story is one of the extreme stories I came across on this blog. I can't even begin to imagine your pain.

Back in 2001 Sep 12, 2001 was our big employment day at our MBA school. The 911 wound so fresh that none of the Indian students got even one single interview inspite of the stellar careers they had. The year before every indian had received min 3 offers and the average salary offered was 115K+bonus. In our batch finally only 2-3 indians bagged offers by graduation and the rest took anywhere between 3-12 months to find their first job. Chinese students faired even worse.

911 was a terrible tragedy. And it really affected us in a way we were not prepared for.


My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

[gc_usa]

All the best. Thanks for ur kind words.

I am still wrecking my brains on this movement. What is the idea behind it, what is in CO's mind?!

1. Is it possible that this can utilize numbers from FY 2011 in case visas were going to be wasted
2. Is this for quarterly SO projection
3. Is this just to get PWMB in, and based on how many PWMB come in, CO will do the next intake movement.

Some lessons I think we can take:
1. CO can and will move dates to take in inventory, purely justifying it on this very reason, to generate demand, he doesn't really need a trigger or a big deal reason
2. CO is sensitive to workload on USCIS and movements will be in short bursts, I feel
3. CO is aware of PWMB concept
4. CO has a handle with CIS on how many 485s come in, these new 485s will take sometime to show up in demand data, yet the language in VB indicates, he wants to take in intake until there is enough demand

Doubts:
1. What is enough demand?
2. What is the plan behind honoring this 3 month movement, since this particular territory is mainly of pre-adjudicated 485s. Is he alloting something leftover from previous FY, is he doing quarterly SO early on, is he giving out the 5.5k qouta in one shot to get to the tipping point, and .... Etc
3. What will be timing of his next move


CO has taken full EB2 I/C supply and applied in first month of year. If you look at this movement , it is 6k as per USCIS data which is little bit higher than what DOS publishes every month ( Demand Data ). Now in Dec month CO may assume that there will be at least 3k spill over in year 2012. which he may apply in Dec 2011 and will move date to what ever point he thinks. ( No one knows how much he thinks that it can be reachable by End of 2012 ), this is where NVC theory comes in picture. Once USCIS's demand is 0 he will use those Cp cases and allocate extra visas assuming spill over for 2012 and move date ).

If he does this in Dec it will take 4-6 months ( USCIS can make I 485 processing time to 6 months ) for USCIS's pre adjudicate those cases by June / july 2012 and ready to consume Spill over visas. This way he can stop date to where it was in Dec 2011 till July 2011 and since he is conservative date may not retro in Spe 2012 but little bit may fall over to EB3 or he may do little adjustment in July 2012 and move date accordingly ) This works perfect since USCIS has already pre adjudicated most of cases before July 2012 and in last 3 months they only need to offset little bit and approve in 3 months ).

[qblogfan]

I know many Chinese folks stayed here for 15 years before their first visit to China. H1B visa for Chinese nationals was only valid for 3 months and 2 entries and F1 visa was 6 months and 1 entry. It's extremely difficult for us to travel and visit.

Sometimes I feel it's not worthy of this long wait. How many 10 years or 15 years can we have in our life? How much valuable family reunion have we missed?


imechanix .... I feel for you my friend. May you be able to go back and visit family and friends ASAP. Your story is one of the extreme stories I came across on this blog. I can't even begin to imagine your pain.

Back in 2001 Sep 12, 2001 was our big employment day at our MBA school. The 911 wound so fresh that none of the Indian students got even one single interview inspite of the stellar careers they had. The year before every indian had received min 3 offers and the average salary offered was 115K+bonus. In our batch finally only 2-3 indians bagged offers by graduation and the rest took anywhere between 3-12 months to find their first job. Chinese students faired even worse.

911 was a terrible tragedy. And it really affected us in a way we were not prepared for.

[dec2007]

I think for you it could be 50-50. We will know better when Oct inventory comes out.




As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong ;)

Q, Nishant, After the good october bulletin, did your opinion change about how soon we can reach jan 1, 2008. My wife is looking for a job, but due to our location she is unable to find one.

[makmohan]

I know many Chinese folks stayed here for 15 years before their first visit to China. H1B visa for Chinese nationals was only valid for 3 months and 2 entries and F1 visa was 6 months and 1 entry. It's extremely difficult for us to travel and visit.

qblogfan,

One of our company directors visited his home-country (china) after 15 yrs - education, postdoc, GC, and all. Hope all this agony ends soon for everyone.

- M

[qblogfan]

Thanks! I hope both Chinese and Indian folks can get freedom soon!

Hope the VB can advance into 2008 or 2009 soon!


qblogfan,

One of our company directors visited his home-country (china) after 15 yrs - education, postdoc, GC, and all. Hope all this agony ends soon for everyone.

- M

[sugada]

Gurus...one question.
My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!

Singh, you have 100% chances with 0% guarentee.

[sugada]

I saw that in July of 2007, there was a backlog reduction plan and PD then became current. Now as of yesterdays visa bulletin the PD is 15 July 2007.
Can we expect that it would get current soon again?

[soggadu]

I saw that in July of 2007, there was a backlog reduction plan and PD then became current. Now as of yesterdays visa bulletin the PD is 15 July 2007.
Can we expect that it would get current soon again?

no it won't be current or even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... Don't keep false hopes....this forum is all about reality and calculations ( don't ask me what I am doing here then) than rumours.... But anyway welcome to the forum....

[soggadu]

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !

hey moniiiiiiiicccccaaaaaaaa ohhh GC waaaliiiiii..... Chillllooo rama dudete.... Feeling good for you..... Hey this is my latest happy avatar.... Q's princess likes it .... So I am gonna stick with this for a while .... Once you all get ur GC's..... I will change into new avatar..... Until then .... Sit back and enjoy the ride.....

[nishant2200]

Q, Nishant, After the good october bulletin, did your opinion change about how soon we can reach jan 1, 2008. My wife is looking for a job, but due to our location she is unable to find one.

The intent looks positive to me to have an intake for ripe demand by SO season. Looks like they are going to do intake soon, they have set the stage in this VB. I think should happen at the very late in Q2 at least.

How much, and in short bursts or one big, that's up in air.

A rough guess would be an intake till Dec 2007 end is absolutely needed, and to ensure meeting this years 30k SOFAD, till april 2008.

[rdsingh79]

Thanks Veni and Q,

I know my frd Sugada..there are no guarantees in life except death and taxes:D


Singh, you have 100% chances with 0% guarentee.

[nishant2200]

Yes, exactly. And if this is the case, CO has taken a very very gutsy move, and this is at point of no return now then. Intake has to happen if the full 5.5k has been alloted in one shot, I think.

Now isnt there a possibility that at sometime dates may become 'U' or very far back to avoid porters, after the intake and until the SO season.

CO has taken full EB2 I/C supply and applied in first month of year. If you look at this movement , it is 6k as per USCIS data which is little bit higher than what DOS publishes every month ( Demand Data ). Now in Dec month CO may assume that there will be at least 3k spill over in year 2012. which he may apply in Dec 2011 and will move date to what ever point he thinks. ( No one knows how much he thinks that it can be reachable by End of 2012 ), this is where NVC theory comes in picture. Once USCIS's demand is 0 he will use those Cp cases and allocate extra visas assuming spill over for 2012 and move date ).

If he does this in Dec it will take 4-6 months ( USCIS can make I 485 processing time to 6 months ) for USCIS's pre adjudicate those cases by June / july 2012 and ready to consume Spill over visas. This way he can stop date to where it was in Dec 2011 till July 2011 and since he is conservative date may not retro in Spe 2012 but little bit may fall over to EB3 or he may do little adjustment in July 2012 and move date accordingly ) This works perfect since USCIS has already pre adjudicated most of cases before July 2012 and in last 3 months they only need to offset little bit and approve in 3 months ).

[nishant2200]

I think watching for approvals for people who became current in Oct VB is important. Are they really going to honor this movement, and if yes from where. I am still bit puzzled. On vacation, I need to take a break but just cant stop thinking.

[qblogfan]

me too.

I am curious whether they will approve 5-6k next month.

If they only approve 2800/12, that means it's just a pure BTM.


I think watching for approvals for people who became current in Oct VB is important. Are they really going to honor this movement, and if yes from where. I am still bit puzzled. On vacation, I need to take a break but just cant stop thinking.

[krishnav]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;8391]Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.



Hi Q, Veni, Others,

First of all, Congrats to all who became current!! Very happy for you.

I was surprised with you guys's prediction of someone with PD in late Sept getting EAD by June 2012 and GC by sept 2012. My PD is Sept 13 2007 and I was thinking, in case there is no further movement till May/June of 2012 (which is normally when spillover starts), my date might become current then and take another 3 months (approx) to get my EAD (so around Aug/Sept 2012). Is this prediction now becasue you believe there will be more movement in the next few months before the spillover period starts?? Am I missing something here?

Also, if some one gets his/her EAD by Jun 2012, how can he/she get their GC by Sept 2012. Isn't normally a standard to say it takes around 1 yr to get you GC after you get you EAD? Is it because the cases would be prejudicated?? If yes, what is the criteria for a case to be prejudicated. If these are things I can read about somewhere, could someone please point me there.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Hi Q, Veni, Others,

First of all, Congrats to all who became current!! Very happy for you.

I was surprised with you guys's prediction of someone with PD in late Sept getting EAD by June 2012 and GC by sept 2012. My PD is Sept 13 2007 and I was thinking, in case there is no further movement till May/June of 2012 (which is normally when spillover starts), my date might become current then and take another 3 months (approx) to get my EAD (so around Aug/Sept 2012). Is this prediction now becasue you believe there will be more movement in the next few months before the spillover period starts?? Am I missing something here?

Also, if some one gets his/her EAD by Jun 2012, how can he/she get their GC by Sept 2012. Isn't normally a standard to say it takes around 1 yr to get you GC after you get you EAD? Is it because the cases would be prejudicated?? If yes, what is the criteria for a case to be prejudicated. If these are things I can read about somewhere, could someone please point me there.

Thanks.

krishnav,

Since the new applications (PWMB) will not reflect in demand until Jan 2012, we can not rule out the possibility of BTM in the next two visa bulletins.

Any movement afterwords depends on how CO is allocating visas to EB2IC (all FY quota at once, monthly allocations, similar to FY 2010, quarterly spillover .... etc)

Once 485 is filed, getting GC purely depends on processing times and availability of numbers, I personally know people who received GC and EAD on the same day, about 3 months after filing their 485.

In some cases EAD arrived after GC!

[murali83]

Guys,

What are the numbers or data that are needed to determine if this 3 month movement came from the 2011 quota or 2012 quota. I strongly believe being the conservative guy CO is, he had no reason to move anything in Oct and he would not be obligated to give any explanation to anyone if the dates had stalled at April 15, 2007. Peaking its to July 2007 was not at all required even if he wanted to progress the dates little by little.

My gut feeling is that they expected a lot of applications from EB1/EB2 Row in Sep, but did not receive any and hence they moved the dates now so that visas dont go a waste from the 2011 quota. This is also in line with this forums predictions for 2011.

But to ascertain this further, what kind of numbers do we need, will the next months demand data help us, or what else do we need?

[bestin]

yeahhhhhhhhhh...i got current too....

[sugada]

no it won't be current or even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... Don't keep false hopes....this forum is all about reality and calculations ( don't ask me what I am doing here then) than rumours.... But anyway welcome to the forum....

Thanks Soggadu, felt like joining the penguins to face winter with happy feet, but I read that there were not many applicants for GC after 2009 with start of this govt and I am hoping that recession might have definitely made its iron step there, any of this (or to bring more revenue) if have caused the decline may push up the PD to current.

[veni001]

Guys,

What are the numbers or data that are needed to determine if this 3 month movement came from the 2011 quota or 2012 quota. I strongly believe being the conservative guy CO is, he had no reason to move anything in Oct and he would not be obligated to give any explanation to anyone if the dates had stalled at April 15, 2007. Peaking its to July 2007 was not at all required even if he wanted to progress the dates little by little.

My gut feeling is that they expected a lot of applications from EB1/EB2 Row in Sep, but did not receive any and hence they moved the dates now so that visas dont go a waste from the 2011 quota. This is also in line with this forums predictions for 2011.

But to ascertain this further, what kind of numbers do we need, will the next months demand data help us, or what else do we need?

murali,

Even though we can not rule out the possibility of assigning visa numbers from previous FY in the month of October(Spec explained this before), the chances are very less based on how far EB2IC came along in the last FY.

I don't think USCIS just guessed increase in EB1/EB2ROW demand for Q4'11, but based on 140 completion in Q3-FY2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations).

[pakkineni]

Thank you Q and ssvp22, My client because of some new policies they are strict this time. Looks like finding new contract is better option.


It seems the client cant afford consulting rate and wants to cut costs but likes you. Is there any way you can delay by at least 2 months .. that way at least you more than likely go past 485. I do think that there is a very good chance of another movement.

Visa extension you are going to need no matter what unfortunately. To go on EAD you need to have 485 filed at least for 6 months.

I agree w SSVP that you shouldn't trust the client to process GC after 1 yr. Tell them its so close that they should do it ASAP and you should have it in writing from them.

[qesehmk]

Guys ..... lets take a moment to remember those who died in 911 as well as those innocents who died around the world in various wars or terrorist incidents including the Mumbai Trains and Taj Hotel and Paliament in Delhi and many many others.

[Kanmani]

even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... .

Soggadu bhai
LOL at you comments to Veni bro......

I am sure the CoD will move into 2008 this FY and I 'guess' it would halt at Apr 2008 at the end .

[Gclongwait]

Hey guys,
I am having trouble understanding how this movement can be due to allocation from next year. If they used 2800 for C and 2800 for I then how can India and china be at the same dates. Obviously C should have been further ahead of I. This has to be some spillover that has been used.

[qesehmk]

Very good insight GCL! Missed me too.

But here is a question - if the logic is that they are moving dates to create forward demand then if the dates have moved enough to take care of Q1 2012 EB2C demand, the movement could still happen using 2012 quota, right?

PLEASE NOTE - AT THIS TIME I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THIS IS. I AM ONLY RAISING A DOUBT.



Hey guys,
I am having trouble understanding how this movement can be due to allocation from next year. If they used 2800 for C and 2800 for I then how can India and china be at the same dates. Obviously C should have been further ahead of I. This has to be some spillover that has been used.

[rinku1112]

Guys, I have been a regular reader of this forum since its inception and enjoy reading every one of you who contribute here.

My PD is in June 2007 and I contribute 2 people to your PWMB statistics:). Needless to say I am elated to be current in Oct to file my 485 after what seemed an endless wait for 4+ years after 140 approval. I must say I was pleasantly surprised with this movement in Oct, after bracing myself completely for another wait of 6-12 months. I am eager to apply my 485 asap and enjoy the peace of mind afforded as a result.

After all these years however, the dates couldn't have moved at a more inappropriate time for me. I have to travel to my company corporate headquarters in Europe in early November for 2 weeks and I might be formally handed more responsibilities by the corp big brass during this time. In other words this is a trip that I cant afford to miss professionally.

My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?

I will be contacting my company lawyer early next week for advice too, but I have been having a restless weekend contemplating this so far and respect the collective wisdom on this forum very much to see if any of you have been in similar situations before and can give me some advice that can help me plan my decisions over the next month better?

I am so sorry, if this is not a relevant question on this thread and I will not feel slighted if this is moved by admins to a more appropriate location on this forum.

Thanks much in advance.

[10102007]

Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball. Feel happy for the guys who can apply for their 485 now. Just imagining what those guys must be going through (mostly relief I guess) makes me look forward to the day when the next batch of guys/ gals become current. For completely selfish reasons, I just hope that the next movement will be for 3 months, taking it to atleast Oct 15, but beyond that is even better because so many 'guru's in the forum have their dates in the second half of October.

Sometimes I feel a bit cheap and am disgusted at myself for postponing India trips just because of the fear of running in to the Great Black Hole of Stamping. Its disgusting because we have to put off the trips for not faults of ours. Anyways, these movements bring hope to so many of us. Hope can sometimes be a cruel thing but let us hope that this hope brings joy to all of us soon.

[ssvp22]

Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball.

I think we still need predictions so that we are able to tell amount of visa numbers consumed/left. With numbers i hand, we make sure history wont repeat itself where INS wastes visa numbers whilst people are waiting in the queue.

[qesehmk]

rinku
#1 - I don't see any problem whatsoever especially if you are working for a fortune 500. Even otherwise I don't see a problem as long as the company is reasonably known.

#2 - You don't need AP if you have a valid H1 in your passport. Even if you apply for one, the likelihood that you will get AP or an-approved-485 by Nov after filing in Oct is 20% or less. But as I said it will have no bearing on your ability to reenter (except if there is fraud involved - which I am sure doesn't look like one :) )



My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?




Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball. ....

Sometimes I feel a bit cheap and am disgusted at myself for postponing India trips just because of the fear of running in to the Great Black Hole of Stamping. Its disgusting because we have to put off the trips for not faults of ours.

1010, actually the numbers moved almost exactly as per my prediction but I am baffled by the one month late move. I had predicted Jul 1st week.
When in September the dates stalled, it was a shocker and the explanation was that EB1 EB2ROW have unusually high demand. But it seems that demand didn't really materialize and CO now in order to save 2011 visas is probably moving dates in October and using 2011 visas to cover it.

We have seen high approvals in October in the past indicating usage of prior year visas. But still I don't want to thump my chest and say this is exactly what has happened here. We will see.

On another note - I think you are one courageous person to admit self-disgust on postponing india trip for fear of stamping.

[Rajesh_n21]

Guys, I have been a regular reader of this forum since its inception and enjoy reading every one of you who contribute here.

My PD is in June 2007 and I contribute 2 people to your PWMB statistics:). Needless to say I am elated to be current in Oct to file my 485 after what seemed an endless wait for 4+ years after 140 approval. I must say I was pleasantly surprised with this movement in Oct, after bracing myself completely for another wait of 6-12 months. I am eager to apply my 485 asap and enjoy the peace of mind afforded as a result.

After all these years however, the dates couldn't have moved at a more inappropriate time for me. I have to travel to my company corporate headquarters in Europe in early November for 2 weeks and I might be formally handed more responsibilities by the corp big brass during this time. In other words this is a trip that I cant afford to miss professionally.

My questions: (1) Is it possible for me to travel on H1 and return safely (in mid Nov) after I file my 485/AP/EAD apps in Oct? (2) What will happen in the unlikely case of my 485 getting approved while I am in Europe; and I don't have an AP in hand yet by then?

I will be contacting my company lawyer early next week for advice too, but I have been having a restless weekend contemplating this so far and respect the collective wisdom on this forum very much to see if any of you have been in similar situations before and can give me some advice that can help me plan my decisions over the next month better?

I am so sorry, if this is not a relevant question on this thread and I will not feel slighted if this is moved by admins to a more appropriate location on this forum.

Thanks much in advance.

Rinku,

I have the same problem as you do. This unexpected movement came at a very difficult time. I will be traveling to India in mid-November. This means my GC has to be approved and I should have the GC in hand in 45 days. If it gets approved while I am out of the country, that could be a lot of pain. One of my friends, was on a business trip outside the country and on his return, he was harassed at the of Port of Entry by a disgruntled officer. He was told that his GC has been approved while he was outside the country. Because of the approval, his H1B got automatically cancelled. Hence, his H1B Stamp had no value and he did not have the GC card in hand. The officer was repeatedly harassing that he was going to deport my friend. Thankfully my friend is a cool guy, he kept his calm, survived the 3rd Checkup location, spend 3 hours in the airport and finally got released to enter the secure zone. No, he did not get that officers badge information.. hmm..

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Site Members,

My Question: What if my family decides to use Advance Parole to re-enter the country. Does that allow me to enter inside if my GC got approved while I was outside the country??

Anybody willing to help me out here with my first question on my first post :)

Thanks,
Rajesh

[superdesi2100]

Rinku,

I have the same problem as you do. This unexpected movement came at a very difficult time. I will be traveling to India in mid-November. This means my GC has to be approved and I should have the GC in hand in 45 days. If it gets approved while I am out of the country, that could be a lot of pain. One of my friends, was on a business trip outside the country and on his return, he was harassed at the of Port of Entry by a disgruntled officer. He was told that his GC has been approved while he was outside the country. Because of the approval, his H1B got automatically cancelled. Hence, his H1B Stamp had no value and he did not have the GC card in hand. The officer was repeatedly harassing that he was going to deport my friend. Thankfully my friend is a cool guy, he kept his calm, survived the 3rd Checkup location, spend 3 hours in the airport and finally got released to enter the secure zone. No, he did not get that officers badge information.. hmm..

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Site Members,

My Question: What if my family decides to use Advance Parole to re-enter the country. Does that allow me to enter inside if my GC got approved while I was outside the country??

Anybody willing to help me out here with my first question on my first post :)

Thanks,
Rajesh

There was some discussion on this on Page 241/242. Anyways, my cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He went to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there. Just keep all the required documents with you, including letter of employment.

[visagcinfo]

.... actually the numbers moved almost exactly as per my prediction but I am baffled by the one month late move. I had predicted Jul 1st week.
When in September the dates stalled, it was a shocker and the explanation was that EB1 EB2ROW have unusually high demand. But it seems that demand didn't really materialize and CO now in order to save 2011 visas is probably moving dates in October and using 2011 visas to cover it.

.........

On another note - I think you are one courageous person to admit self-disgust on postponing india trip for fear of stamping.

Q,
Doesn't it mean that CO (or whoever it is) can do whatever he wants to do no matter what the rules or precedents say? (interpret the rules in the way he wants to)
Unusually high demand for EB1 EB2ROW showing up all in a sudden - I don't buy this story. I believe it is something made up. I can't prove it, but it is something they are saying to cover up something.
postponing trip - guess there are plenty such cases! Family can't go either from this year because dependent visa is also now processed like primary H1b.

[rinku1112]

rinku
#1 - I don't see any problem whatsoever especially if you are working for a fortune 500. Even otherwise I don't see a problem as long as the company is reasonably known.

#2 - You don't need AP if you have a valid H1 in your passport. Even if you apply for one, the likelihood that you will get AP or an-approved-485 by Nov after filing in Oct is 20% or less. But as I said it will have no bearing on your ability to reenter (except if there is fraud involved - which I am sure doesn't look like one :) )



Thanks Q. Appreciate your response buddy. That 20% chance of approval while I am still abroad is what got me thinking about this issue. The company itself is a multinational European company and a leader in its field. But I would not be surprised if the immigration officer at port of entry does not know about the company.

About Fraud - I wish I had done some fraud. I wouldn't have waited for 13 years to file 485. But no such luck ;)

Cheers.

[soggadu]

Thanks Soggadu, felt like joining the penguins to face winter with happy feet, but I read that there were not many applicants for GC after 2009 with start of this govt and I am hoping that recession might have definitely made its iron step there, any of this (or to bring more revenue) if have caused the decline may push up the PD to current.

again, check the facts and data section .... You will see so many applications during and after 2009....

[rinku1112]

Rinku,

Long story short - If GC gets approved, and your only entry document is H1B stamp, then get ready to face the music..

Rajesh

Thanks Rajesh. I never thought I would have a worry in the world at the slightest when my PD ever got current :) I will let you all know what I hear from my lawyer on Monday about this travel situation post 485 filing and pre-AP approval. So what are you planning to do now about your travel?


There was some discussion on this on Page 241/242. Anyways, my cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He went to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there. Just keep all the required documents with you, including letter of employment.

Thanks Superdesi. Sounds logical to me. I will check this fact as well with my HR/lawyers and see what they suggest. Appreciate your response.

Cheers.

[PBTEXAS]

Hi qblogfan, nishant, qeshmk and other active members,

I have been avid reader of the discussion that you present on this forum with the insight to how the date will progress in visa bulletin in coming months. I have some fear in mind about GC approval and would like to know your thoughts on same.

Priority Date: July 5, 2007
Country: India
Filed In: EB2 Category

My previous company filed LC/I-140 and I-485 during July 2007 fiasco. I-140 got approved in 2009 and in September 2010, I moved to Company B. Did send AC 21 documentation to USCIS soon after joining new company through company lawyer. Never saw an update on the status check website of USCIS and nor received an RFE till date on the same. I would like to know what are the possible scenarios so that I be well equipped in case things go out of control. I thank you all for valuable information and understanding the nature of the problem the whole EB2/EB3 community is facing (especially India and China). Looking forward to hear from you all.

Best
PBTEXAS

[collhyd]

Dear Gurus of Forum,
Can you now please provide the revised predictions.

Thanks
(My Priority EB2 Feb 28, 2008)

[murali83]

Guys,

Slightly OT question here.

When you file I-485, I know some lawyers ask for all previous 797 approvals and some just the current.

"In my case, I was thinking of switching jobs sometime last year to company B who filed for my H1b and it got approved. But negotiations broke down and I never joined the company B. So I ended up staying with my employer (company A) with whom I will stay for quite some more time even after my GC. I even went to India and got my visa also stamped with my current employer (company A) just recently. So essentially that H1b from company B is just lying in the bin and was never used for any purpose."

My question is do I need to furnish that approved h1b from company B when I file for my 485.

So when my lawyer says that she wants all my past H1 approvals for 485 filing, will just company A's h1 (which she already has) suffice, or do I need to give her this othet h1b from company B also.

[dec2007]

Acquisition after I 140 approved
taking liberty to post my question here...
Friends, any one has experience or know of similar situation as mine.. Would appreciate your thoughts.

my PD is EB2I:Dec 31, 2007.
I140 approved in July 2008
Acquired by a company in Oct 2008.

My 3 years H1B (beyond 6 years) was approved in may 2011 based on my approved I140.

My pd is getting closer and my concern is if there is anything we need to do, like name change amendments etc.

our company lawyer says no need to do anything. The ownership change was too far up the corporate chain to require reporting and no rights/responsibilities have changed with no change in legal structure of our business.

looking for a second opinion, so that we don't get disappointed after 4 years of waiting.. share your thoughts please. Thanks

[qesehmk]

PBTexas, sit tight. If you filed through lawyer .. you should be safe 99.99%.

My previous company filed LC/I-140 and I-485 during July 2007 fiasco. I-140 got approved in 2009 and in September 2010, I moved to Company B. Did send AC 21 documentation to USCIS soon after joining new company through company lawyer. Never saw an update on the status check website of USCIS and nor received an RFE till date on the same. I would like to know what are the possible scenarios so that I be well equipped in case things go out of control.

PBTEXAS


Guys,

My question is do I need to furnish that approved h1b from company B when I file for my 485.


It's a good idea to provide everything you have including the company B H1. I don't think that no having that information will hurt you. But why take chance. By the way just in case you didn't know you can hold multiple H1s at teh same time.



Acquisition after I 140 approved
taking liberty to post my question here...
Friends, any one has experience or know of similar situation as mine.. Would appreciate your thoughts.

my PD is EB2I:Dec 31, 2007.
I140 approved in July 2008
Acquired by a company in Oct 2008.

My 3 years H1B (beyond 6 years) was approved in may 2011 based on my approved I140.

My pd is getting closer and my concern is if there is anything we need to do, like name change amendments etc.

our company lawyer says no need to do anything. The ownership change was too far up the corporate chain to require reporting and no rights/responsibilities have changed with no change in legal structure of our business.

looking for a second opinion, so that we don't get disappointed after 4 years of waiting.. share your thoughts please. Thanks
I would've thought the same and your company lawyer confirms it.

[qesehmk]

Agree. I don't buy that either. But as I said many times ... the law is like two lines drawn on the side of the road. These guys can tresspass these lines a little bit here and there. But even then they can claim to be within the framework of the law.


Q,
Doesn't it mean that CO (or whoever it is) can do whatever he wants to do no matter what the rules or precedents say? (interpret the rules in the way he wants to)
Unusually high demand for EB1 EB2ROW showing up all in a sudden - I don't buy this story. I believe it is something made up. I can't prove it, but it is something they are saying to cover up something.
postponing trip - guess there are plenty such cases! Family can't go either from this year because dependent visa is also now processed like primary H1b.

[qesehmk]

Even if you have an approved GC and H1 gets cancelled ... I don't think legally the officer can deport you.

The problem with the immigration officers is that ... they have tremendous powers. Just in case you didn't know they can give you a visa on arrival if they like you!!! So my understanding is that an immigration officer can deny an entry on ANY ground he/she pleases. The only people whom they can't deny entry is citizens.

So if you are holding GC for 9 years and 364 days and have a citizenship appt scheduled the next day ... you could still be unfortunate enough to be denied entry into the US using your GC.



Thanks Q. Appreciate your response buddy. That 20% chance of approval while I am still abroad is what got me thinking about this issue. The company itself is a multinational European company and a leader in its field. But I would not be surprised if the immigration officer at port of entry does not know about the company.

About Fraud - I wish I had done some fraud. I wouldn't have waited for 13 years to file 485. But no such luck ;)

Cheers.

[krishnav]

krishnav,

Since the new applications (PWMB) will not reflect in demand until Jan 2012, we can not rule out the possibility of BTM in the next two visa bulletins.

Any movement afterwords depends on how CO is allocating visas to EB2IC (all FY quota at once, monthly allocations, similar to FY 2010, quarterly spillover .... etc)

Once 485 is filed, getting GC purely depends on processing times and availability of numbers, I personally know people who received GC and EAD on the same day, about 3 months after filing their 485.

In some cases EAD arrived after GC!


Thanks Veni.

[qblogfan]

We also need to remember the innocent people killed by NATO and US army.


Guys ..... lets take a moment to remember those who died in 911 as well as those innocents who died around the world in various wars or terrorist incidents including the Mumbai Trains and Taj Hotel and Paliament in Delhi and many many others.

[qblogfan]

I understand your feelings very well. I have postponed my trip for many times. I was told clearly by the US embassy that I will be checked in my last visa interview. I haven't visited my home for three years. It's a very painful process. I may hold here for one extra year and I will take my trip no matter what the situation is one year later. I wish I can submit 485 in the next summer.

We are under other people's mercy. This feeling is not so great. When we want to travel, we worry about tons of things. When we are bullied in office by the white men, we have to continue to work there. I hope all of us will get freedom soon!


Looks like we can throw out all the prediction algorithms as the CO has just thrown a curve-ball. Feel happy for the guys who can apply for their 485 now. Just imagining what those guys must be going through (mostly relief I guess) makes me look forward to the day when the next batch of guys/ gals become current. For completely selfish reasons, I just hope that the next movement will be for 3 months, taking it to atleast Oct 15, but beyond that is even better because so many 'guru's in the forum have their dates in the second half of October.

Sometimes I feel a bit cheap and am disgusted at myself for postponing India trips just because of the fear of running in to the Great Black Hole of Stamping. Its disgusting because we have to put off the trips for not faults of ours. Anyways, these movements bring hope to so many of us. Hope can sometimes be a cruel thing but let us hope that this hope brings joy to all of us soon.

[qblogfan]

Frankly I don't know the answer. I haven't submitted 485 yet. I hope other gurus can help you.


Hi qblogfan, nishant, qeshmk and other active members,

I have been avid reader of the discussion that you present on this forum with the insight to how the date will progress in visa bulletin in coming months. I have some fear in mind about GC approval and would like to know your thoughts on same.

Priority Date: July 5, 2007
Country: India
Filed In: EB2 Category

My previous company filed LC/I-140 and I-485 during July 2007 fiasco. I-140 got approved in 2009 and in September 2010, I moved to Company B. Did send AC 21 documentation to USCIS soon after joining new company through company lawyer. Never saw an update on the status check website of USCIS and nor received an RFE till date on the same. I would like to know what are the possible scenarios so that I be well equipped in case things go out of control. I thank you all for valuable information and understanding the nature of the problem the whole EB2/EB3 community is facing (especially India and China). Looking forward to hear from you all.

Best
PBTEXAS

[rinku1112]

Even if you have an approved GC and H1 gets cancelled ... I don't think legally the officer can deport you.

The problem with the immigration officers is that ... they have tremendous powers. Just in case you didn't know they can give you a visa on arrival if they like you!!!


Thanks Q. I did not know that and will keep that in mind. I will put my most charming face up the next time I am in front of a IO at POE :)

[qesehmk]

Seriously. This happened with somebody I know who told me this. This person had C1D1 which limits you to the port of call. But this person was travelling within US and got caught by an io who gave this guy 24 hours to leave US. Luckily another IO followed this person and gave him a B1 in his visa on the spot and told him that an IO has powers and nobody can object him in his exercise of those powers. But just like he has the power to object to you not having a visa, I have the power to give you the visa. And he got one.

True or false or hyperbole. I don't know. But this is something I learnt first hand. Regardless of truth, it helps to understand that just like the whole immigration process, even after you get GC, some of the government agencies always have discretionary powers. Its always useful to keep smiling and avoid pissing off an IO to the extent possible.


Thanks Q. I did not know that and will keep that in mind. I will put my most charming face up the next time I am in front of a IO at POE :)

[samudrala]

Hi Gurus,

First Congratulations to all of you who are current in October bulletin and wish others get current soon.

I became current in Oct. bulletin as well.

I am PWMB with a priority date of 06/06/2007 EB2 India. Can someone tell me how long does it take to get my EAD/AP and GC.

Thanks all

[abhinata]

Hello Guys,

I am new to this forum. I have read post in this forum and couldn't found a clear answer to my question below. Maybe I didn't dig deep enough.

I have an anxiety question after seeing Oct visa bulletin: I will be current on Oct1st. My PD is 13Jul2007. I have applied for 485 in Jul2007. No RFEs so far but had LUD in Aug2008.

Question is what happens if the PD retrogress in Nov bulletin before I get my GC? Do I have to wait again till it becomes current?

Thanks

[visagcinfo]

See how contradicting outcomes when the same case is looked at by two different IOs.
They add a clause at the bottom of the rules and regulation "..at the discretion of the officer..." and make way to ignore all the rules and regulations above that in the list and still claim they follow the rules and regulations, ha!

Keep smiling.. employer, recruiters/middle layers, full time employees at client place, government agencies. Any place where we can stand up for something (or vent out)? (1st two applies for people in EVC model though)


.....an io who gave this guy 24 hours to leave US. Luckily another IO followed this person and gave him a B1 in his visa on the spot ....

... some of the government agencies always have discretionary powers. Its always useful to keep smiling and avoid pissing off an IO to the extent possible.

[nishant2200]

Frustratingly on iphone keyboard I have generated this table of FB intake approach last year, so that we may see inspiration to EB which looks like similar this year.

VB--F2A--F2B

Sep 2010--01Jan10--01Jan05
Oct 2010--01Apr10--01Apr05
Nov 2010--01Jun10--01Jun05
Dec 2010--01Aug10--01Jun05
Jan 2011--01Jan08--15Apr03
Sep 2011--01Dec08--01Jul03
Oct 2011--08Jan09--15Jul03

So it does look like DOS is familiar with the game of taking intake in Q1 and then retro in Q2.

[veni001]

Hello Guys,

I am new to this forum. I have read post in this forum and couldn't found a clear answer to my question below. Maybe I didn't dig deep enough.

I have an anxiety question after seeing Oct visa bulletin: I will be current on Oct1st. My PD is 13Jul2007. I have applied for 485 in Jul2007. No RFEs so far but had LUD in Aug2008.

Question is what happens if the PD retrogress in Nov bulletin before I get my GC? Do I have to wait again till it becomes current?

Thanks

abhinata,
You PD must be current and a visa number should be available for VO to assign to your case.

[veni001]

Even if you have an approved GC and H1 gets cancelled ... I don't think legally the officer can deport you.


Thanks Q. I did not know that and will keep that in mind. I will put my most charming face up the next time I am in front of a IO at POE :)

In this case one can go to nearest US consulate ti get their passport stamped with IV. In the event GC approved but the individual not able to get his/her passport stamped with IV, usually IO issue parole at POE.

[veni001]

Frustratingly on iphone keyboard I have generated this table of FB intake approach last year, so that we may see inspiration to EB which looks like similar this year.

VB--F2A--F2B

Sep 2010--01Jan10--01Jan05
Oct 2010--01Apr10--01Apr05
Nov 2010--01Jun10--01Jun05
Dec 2010--01Aug10--01Jun05
Jan 2011--01Jan08--15Apr03
Sep 2011--01Dec08--01Jul03
Oct 2011--08Jan09--15Jul03

So it does look like DOS is familiar with the game of taking intake in Q1 and then retro in Q2.

Nishant,
Very good observation.

[natvyas]

If I remember correctly....in one of the informal communication the CO had mentioned that once the date reaches Aug, he would have to take a look at fresh intake of applications.

I wonder what was his thought process then and how it has changed since he has moved the dates so close to Aug.

[Kanmani]

Nishant that is wonderful .
Veni and Spec , how much do you guys think will be the intake 20K + porting ?

[rdsingh79]

This is from Dec 2010 VB which talk about the FB movement referred to by Nishant above. CO uses language similar to what we saw in Oct 2011 VB for EB2IC

Family-sponsored: From early 2009 through September 2010, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories was very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories were advanced at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits could be fully utilized. As readers were advised in previous Visa Bulletins providing projections of visa availability (e.g., April 2009, January 2010, May 2010, July 2010), such cut-off date advances could not continue indefinitely, and at some point they could slow, stop, or in some cases retrogress.

The level of demand which has been experienced during FY-2011 has resulted in most of the worldwide cut-off dates being held for the month of December. At this time it is not possible to predict when or if these dates may advance further, and there is a distinct possibility that retrogressions could occur as early as January if demand within the established cut-off dates does not appear to be subsiding.


Nishant,
Very good observation.

[indiaeb2]

Good Morning Guys - I just came from Vacation and was very glad to see the oct visa movements. Congragulation for folks who are going to be current. I missed it by 21 days as you know my PD is Aug 6th 2007. I hope i can file mine for Nov....

Q - When you get a chance, could you please update your posting #1 . Thanks

[gchopeful123]

Congrats to everyone who is current for Oct. Though I think most of you would be documentarily qualified, I had some questions on the I-485 filing once PD is current. Note that my PD is Sep 2007, therefore I havent been able to even file I-485 yet, but need to be prepared.

1) How much time is available to file the I-485 once the PD becomes current e.g. if PD is current within Oct 11 VB, does it mean that the application can be submitted any time between Oct 1 - Oct 31? - or is it critical that the application reach USCIS on Oct 1st itself?

2) If there is a delay in medical evaluation, can the I-485 be submitted first just to get the foot in the door and the medical forms submitted later on?

3) I have copy of birth certificates which are in english and with accurate information. In this case, are affidavits still required or will the birth certificates suffice?

Thanks

[sjkumar]

OMG OMG i cant believe my eyes... i did not check the thread neither bulletin..Congrats to everybody who become current including me (June 21) .. this forum has been my emotional adda.. thank you everybody on this forum Q,Teddy,Veni thanks again ... everybody

[gregspirited]

I'm looking at Demand data from Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 and the numbers for EB2 IC are the same. If the PD moved from April to Jul in this VB why don't we see any reduced numbers in the demand data for year ending 2008. Any thoughts?

Also I have got an opportunity to move to a managerial position (from being an individual contributor) in another firm. Is it wise to move to that firm with my PD being Oct 18, 2007 or is it wise to wait for couple of more months before I can use EAD & AC21 (assuming I can apply 485 soon). Any suggestion is appreciated. Thanks

[mvinayam]

Congratulations to all who are current in Oct (including us 06/20/2007) .

Gurus, any one have any experience with interfiling between Spouse I-140. If so please suggest us the procedure & the time frame to get the GC. We have a pending I-485 (myslef Primary & husband as dependent EB3 Mar 2006 ). In october my husband's PD is current EB2 06/20/2007 & based on the discussions with the lawyers we are planning to do interfiling instead of filing secondary I-485 or revoing the pending I-485 & applying for new one. But not sure how long it will take us to get the GC & whether this is the best solution.

Any suggestions/ guidance will be very helpful.

Thanks & Regards,
mvinayam

[kd2008]

Considering PWMBs and porting demand probably would not show up in the demand data of documentarily qualified candidates immediately, do you guys think BTM will be 20K? 30K? 40K?

I don't know what you guys came to conclude on EB2ROW/EB1 backlog clearance from last year. Where do we stand on that?

Thanks for updating me!

[veni001]

Nishant that is wonderful .
Veni and Spec , how much do you guys think will be the intake 20K + porting ?

Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

[gchopeful123]

Looking at the footnotes within the Oct VB and anecdotal data on the date movements (FB/EB etc), do we think that the dates will move further in the Nov VB, possibly by another 3 months?

[iamdeb]

Congrats to all those who became current in this bulletin!! Great to see such movement after the September disappointment.The PWMB word will be history soon.
Is there any chance of the PD becoming 'Current' in the upcoming bulletins?

[Kanmani]

Veni,

Do you expect Apr 16 to Dec 2007 EB2IC total = 30K ?
Is it not way over compared to 2006 EB2IC total ? ( my total is 20K only excluding porting)

[veni001]

Veni,

Do you expect Apr 16 to Dec 2007 EB2IC total = 30K ?
Is it not way over compared to 2006 EB2IC total ? ( my total is 20K only excluding porting)

Kanmani,
If we add current known EB2IC demand to the projected demand based on I+C monthly PERM breakdown by Spec (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), that's about right not counting porting.

[suninphx]

Kanmani,
If we add current known EB2IC demand to the projected demand based on I+C monthly PERM breakdown by Spec (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), that's about right not counting porting.

Above is true with assumption that numbers from FY2012 have been used for this movement. I dont think we have confirmation yet thats being the case.

[murali83]

Above is true with assumption that numbers from FY2012 have been used for this movement. I dont think we have confirmation yet thats being the case.

Thats the issue. I really dont buy that story of EB1 and Eb2Row demand peaking suddenly and 12K looks a little steep anyway. I believe at least part of this 3 month movement is from 2011.

[sha_kus]

I am happy if they really pulled the 2010 numbers to 2011. But the question is can they really do it.


Thats the issue. I really dont buy that story of EB1 and Eb2Row demand peaking suddenly and 12K looks a little steep anyway. I believe at least part of this 3 month movement is from 2011.

[gcq]

I am happy if they really pulled the 2010 numbers to 2011. But the question is can they really do it.
Isn't this what people are asking for, the recapture of unused visas from previous year ? AFAIK this is not a law yet and CO has crossed the boundaries.

[qblogfan]

S said the total demand before Dec 2007 is 20k without porting number. Please refer to S's post several days ago.

If they want 30k, they have to move the PD to April 2008.

Here is from S's estimation:

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226





Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you.

Another thing to add is that CO may see how the demand increases in October. If the increase is small, he may move the PD much further to get more demand.

I suspect the increase will not be too much, maybe 2k-3k based on the previous data analysis.


Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

[qesehmk]

The way I try to get around this problem is by pasting image OR using "Courier" font.

Q pls help me how to paste contents of the table in the post . Mine looks ugly

[TeddyKoochu]

Frustratingly on iphone keyboard I have generated this table of FB intake approach last year, so that we may see inspiration to EB which looks like similar this year.

VB--F2A--F2B

Sep 2010--01Jan10--01Jan05
Oct 2010--01Apr10--01Apr05
Nov 2010--01Jun10--01Jun05
Dec 2010--01Aug10--01Jun05
Jan 2011--01Jan08--15Apr03
Sep 2011--01Dec08--01Jul03
Oct 2011--08Jan09--15Jul03

So it does look like DOS is familiar with the game of taking intake in Q1 and then retro in Q2.

Nishant this is great typing and a great analysis & find, looks like USCIS & DOS truly believe in actual filings only which would be 485 data in our case.

[rinku1112]

Seriously. This happened with somebody I know who told me this. This person had C1D1 which limits you to the port of call. But this person was travelling within US and got caught by an io who gave this guy 24 hours to leave US. Luckily another IO followed this person and gave him a B1 in his visa on the spot and told him that an IO has powers and nobody can object him in his exercise of those powers. But just like he has the power to object to you not having a visa, I have the power to give you the visa. And he got one.

True or false or hyperbole. I don't know. But this is something I learnt first hand. Regardless of truth, it helps to understand that just like the whole immigration process, even after you get GC, some of the government agencies always have discretionary powers. Its always useful to keep smiling and avoid pissing off an IO to the extent possible.


In this case one can go to nearest US consulate ti get their passport stamped with IV. In the event GC approved but the individual not able to get his/her passport stamped with IV, usually IO issue parole at POE.

Thanks Q and Veni. I checked this morning with my company lawyer and she said I should not have any issues travelling as well and I got teh same information as I got here from all of you. You guys are the best... Thanks and keep up the great work.

[soggadu]

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

Big T, when you say "this year"... r u talking about 2011 or fiscal year 2012?

[TeddyKoochu]

Big T, when you say "this year"... r u talking about 2011 or fiscal year 2012?

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

[pch053]

Nishant this is great typing and a great analysis & find, looks like USCIS & DOS truly believe in actual filings only which would be 485 data in our case.
If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

[cool_mj007]

Great conversation team, very insightful and logical. I have been following for a few months now and finally decided to register. I look forward to continue receiving the valuable information and much needed support from the group.
Cheers!

[Gclongwait]

If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

That's the million$ question. I think we need to wait till Oct inventory is out and also to see if ppl with pre-adjudicated I485 are getting visas in Oct. Right now nobody knows for sure what this is.

[Jitesh]

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

You mean dates are expected to move to move to only Oct -2007 till Sep 2012?Only 3 months movement in a year?

[TeddyKoochu]

You mean dates are expected to move to move to only Oct -2007 till Sep 2012?Only 3 months movement in a year?

This much is going to be sure shot movement for GC issuance. Dates will likely go further likely Dec 2007 so that a safe pipeline is maintained. I will revise the projection based on how Q1 goes by. Good luck to all.

[indiasunil]

This much is going to be sure shot movement for GC issuance. Dates will likely go further likely Dec 2007 so that a safe pipeline is maintained. I will revise the projection based on how Q1 goes by. Good luck to all.

Based on history, As an average the dates are moving 9 months. Every Quarter for sure the dates will move 3 to 4 months. For FY2012, we can expect dates around March 2008.

[cbpds1]

I assume that all SO numbers that are valid for FY2011 will have to be allocated by 09/30/2011 right.

I fail to understand how CO can assign the spill over numbers to the petitions that will be current in October?


If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

[qesehmk]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.


Based on history, As an average the dates are moving 9 months. Every Quarter for sure the dates will move 3 to 4 months. For FY2012, we can expect dates around March 2008.

[sha_kus]

Q , is it ok to say if we have 20K spill over we need 20K qualified applicants which can be 25K USCIS initial applications or 25k spill over which translates to 30K USCIS initial applications..




That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

[soggadu]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

Teddy : Date Oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... pakka Dec 2007 tak jaayega... he he he....
Q : How can you say that... humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, Insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass MAA hein Q, MAA hein !!!!!!!! Aur MAA ne kaha mujhe issi saal GC milegaaaaaa.....

[suninphx]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.

[suninphx]

teddy : Date oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... Ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... Pakka dec 2007 tak jaayega... He he he....
Q : How can you say that... Humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass maa hein q, maa hein !!!!!!!! Aur maa ne kaha mujhe issi saal gc milegaaaaaa.....

lol............

[GCDespo]

Soggadu you have the most powerful source

[qesehmk]

Mere paas CO kee MAA hain. Aur usane kaha hain kee Jan 2008 ko bhee GC milega!!!


Teddy : Date Oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... pakka Dec 2007 tak jaayega... he he he....
Q : How can you say that... humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, Insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass MAA hein Q, MAA hein !!!!!!!! Aur MAA ne kaha mujhe issi saal GC milegaaaaaa.....


If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.
Agree. The reality is nobody knows for sure WT-Heck happened here. So we r just being conservative. Excuse me for my language.

[pichkaari]

Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

[qblogfan]

I agree. I think they have to have some buffer between SOFAD and the total demand. If next year SOFAD is 20k, they may admit people to reach 25k.

Ideally I think 10k is a safer buffer between SOFAD and demand. If next year we can get 20k SOFAD, CO should admit people to reach 30k total demand. If next year we can get 30k SOFAD, he should admit people to reach 40k.

If I were him, I would have moved PD to 12/31/2008. That will give me 40k demand. It's safer and better.

It doesn't make any sense to be so conservative. EAD/AP will not be useful at all for the folks who can get GC in 3 months after submission of 485.

For example, a PWMB guy missed July 2007 event and he just submitted 485 in May and got approved in August. What's the point of getting EAD/AP for this guy?

CO should move PD to 2009 and let many people enjoy AP/EAD for 1 year and people will be much happier and USCIS can get more money. It will be a win-win situation.



Q , is it ok to say if we have 20K spill over we need 20K qualified applicants which can be 25K USCIS initial applications or 25k spill over which translates to 30K USCIS initial applications..

[MeraNoAayega]

Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

imho aos route...

[gcq]

If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.
IMO we should force CO to give explanation each month in clear terms why he made the decision. He is a government official and he owes to the public to explain that his decisions are in line with law. Instead of writing speculations and lies in visa bulletin, he should write clear explanation going forward.

For eg he could write.
"There were X number of visas available for EB2 for the month of October based on this calculation which is in line with the law. There is known demand from USCIS for Y number of visas. There is a demand of Z visa numbers from consulates. So the dates were moved by N number of days. ............"

[qblogfan]

NIU has contacted him many times. Every time he replied us bull shit and meaningless excuses. We even contacted his boss and his boss is the same.

He never really understood the law and he is changing every year.

Before 2007 he used spillover on EB3 and he changed to use spillover on EB2 after 2007. Did he give us an explanation why he changed it? He changed the law or he changed his understanding of the law? As far as I know, the law was not changed in 2007. It is such a serious matter and he changed it based on his "new understanding". I can't believe it.

He didn't do any quarter spillover before and now maybe he is doing it. Nobody knows. It's a black hole and no matter what you ask him, he gives you the same meaningless bull shit.


IMO we should force CO to give explanation each month in clear terms why he made the decision. He is a government official and he owes to the public to explain that his decisions are in line with law. Instead of writing speculations and lies in visa bulletin, he should write clear explanation going forward.

For eg he could write.
"There were X number of visas available for EB2 for the month of October based on this calculation which is in line with the law. There is known demand from USCIS for Y number of visas. There is a demand of Z visa numbers from consulates. So the dates were moved by N number of days. ............"

[needid]

When everybody expected no movement, CO moved it by 3 months, "To generate demand".As far as i know the PERM approvals were quick in 2007. Whoever was in US with approved PERM would not hesitate to file I-485.My PERM was approved in 21 days and i know cases with 1day and within a week approvals. So move to July 15th according to me does not generate any significant demand( it may generate a 100 or 200). If CO is not moving further in next month or two, I strongly believe the move in Oct is to only to consume 2011 leftover.

if the intention is really to generate demand then it should keep moving as Gurus predicted upto Dec 2007 in Q1 of FY 2012.

[suninphx]

Mere paas CO kee MAA hain. Aur usane kaha hain kee Jan 2008 ko bhee GC milega!!!




Agree. The reality is nobody knows for sure WT-Heck happened here. So we r just being conservative. Excuse me for my language.

Q- you are fine. Also I do not have any problems with some one being conservative (over conservative sometimes). ..that does not hurt me. With PD of late 2009 I know I have long way to go. Having said that I will be comfortable buying conservative views when they are backed by data from various perpectives. (e.g. porting , actual convertible PERM-> I140 ratio in light on recession etc)

[qblogfan]

ATL center was slower than Chicago center. Not all the applicants could submit 485 after PERM.

Based on our people's analysis, this VB movement can generate 2k-3k demand.

Mr.CO is over conservative! 2k-3k doesn't make too much difference! If he wants real demand, he needs to move it into 2008 and it will give him 30k-40k!


When everybody expected no movement, CO moved it by 3 months, "To generate demand".As far as i know the PERM approvals were quick in 2007. Whoever was in US with approved PERM would not hesitate to file I-485.My PERM was approved in 21 days and i know cases with 1day and within a week approvals. So move to July 15th according to me does not generate any significant demand( it may generate a 100 or 200). If CO is not moving further in next month or two, I strongly believe the move in Oct is to only to consume 2011 leftover.

if the intention is really to generate demand then it should keep moving as Gurus predicted upto Dec 2007 in Q1 of FY 2012.

[Gclongwait]

2007 PD
Total perm Jan 01 to apr 14 - 7721

Total perm apr 15 to aug 17 - 5900
Total perm aug 18 to dec31 - 15356

Total EB2IC 485 Jan 01 to Apr 14 - 7662

Total EB2IC 485 Apr 15 to Dec 31 - ?


If 7721 perm supplied 7662 485s
Then remaining 21256 perm is expected to supply around 21K IC 485s

This is my way of approaching .

I tend to prefer this approach especially since we do have stats for a reasonable period now. If we look at absolute number then there are too many unknowns to consider (porting, multiple perms, double filing within a family, ppl dropping out, denials at different stages etc etc) for which we randomly assign %ages which may be way off. Although 1 year is still kind of less, but when dealing in numbers in 10's of thousands a trend should continue.

[superdesi2100]

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/pending-immigration-legislation-32/eb2-backlog-15263/

[gcq]

Don't believe Ron when it comes to CO. Both are buddies.

[gc_usa]

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/pending-immigration-legislation-32/eb2-backlog-15263/

I don't think he does better job than us when it comes to calculation. He may be great lawyer but not number cruncher. How come porting was high in deep recession and now all of a sudden go away ? He is same like AILA who wanted to generate more business by saying port baby port. He is trying to send out message to all EB3 to port and engage him.

[gcseeker]

Ron's predictions have always been wide off the mark. He does zero with respect to analytical predictions and only wants to attract more business on the porting side. I would not attach much importance to his predictions.He might ultimately claim victory in Sep 2012 because anyhow numbers might not move beyond Dec 2007 ( based on the analysis so far by the guru's) and he will get to claim all this was due to the porting falling off and an golden opportunity exists for his customers to rush into the pipeline.


Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/pending-immigration-legislation-32/eb2-backlog-15263/

[qesehmk]

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.


Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/pending-immigration-legislation-32/eb2-backlog-15263/

[superdesi2100]

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

I trust you guys on analysis than anybody else out there. No body else out there other than you - Q - predicted July 2007 priority date for EB2.

I found it hard to believe what Ron G had to say and hence I posted it with the portion in bold. I will be careful posting from other sources in future.

[qesehmk]

superdesi, please continue to post what your judge as good information. My only intention was to comment rather than criticize. And generally all other members too I trust meant similar. Thank you for the contribution!


I trust you guys on analysis than anybody else out there. No body else out there other than you - Q - predicted July 2007 priority date for EB2.

I found it hard to believe what Ron G had to say and hence I posted it with the portion in bold. I will be careful posting from other sources in future.

[qblogfan]

Yes, all the lawyers only want to make more money.

I saw some Chinese lawyers are distributing rumors about H1B and they always claim H1B is going to be exhausted soon and encourage people to apply for H1B as soon as possible. In fact the truth is H1B still has more than 60% in this year.

They don't put any efforts into the data analysis and the only thing they do is to create more fear and make money from it.


I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

[benjiding]

As far is porting is concerned, those who wanted to port have done it. And porting numbers will only decrease going forward.

[krishnav]

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??

[dec2007]

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

ron commented today on the same link, that now he expects dates to move well into 2008. Looks like he changed his opinion after oct bulletin released.

[pch053]

Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??
If I understand correctly, I think Teddy meant that pre-Oct PDs will receive their GCs in hand by the end of FY'12 and not just apply for I485 & EAD.

[Kanmani]

The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use.


What is this 85%? Gurus pls enlighten

[qesehmk]

That's AOS demand. CP accounts for 15% usage. Is that what you are asking?


What is this 85%? Gurus pls enlighten

[nishant2200]

That's AOS demand. CP accounts for 15% usage. Is that what you are asking?

And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

[qesehmk]

Excellent ... excellent point. Thanks.
And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

[nayekal]

We are seeing demand data probably from last couple of years, we do have info regarding annual visa consumption as well and most of the gurus and pandits analyzed this data and gave out their predictions.
....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

I think, with the data, which we have right now, it is any one's guess including myself, who just reads, asks questions when needed, but doesn't contribute.

I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO. Not that I am criticizing Mr CO by saying he is unpredictable, I felt that I am OK to say what I wanted since you guys are all my friends.

[gcseeker]

Nayekal

:) Hmm it is getting to an interesting point. Just a few posts ago Soggadu was talking about Maa and then Q said he had CO's Maa's and now you are talking about an psycho analysis trip of the CO's behaviour.

Wink Wink...see where this is going. (Clears throat).For the right price (supaari) we can get the right talent to perform an rendition on the CO...get him to a pleasant place (like Libya) and then perform the psycho analysis you requested.

CO: Where am I...
Kidnapper: Let us talk about the Nov bulletin
CO: Dont attempt anything foolish.I have instructed the Mumbai consulate to take care of things if something bad happens to me..
Kidnapper: Err...Let us not be hasty. Let us talk about your childhood for a change...
CO: What.....No...Not that please.
Kidnapper: Is it true your chocolates were snatched from you when you were a child...
CO(curving up into a fetal position) : Stop .....you have no right .

:) A man can dream can't he....Please excuse the stale comedy,just could not help it.


We are seeing demand data probably from last couple of years, we do have info regarding annual visa consumption as well and most of the gurus and pandits analyzed this data and gave out their predictions.
....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

I think, with the data, which we have right now, it is any one's guess including myself, who just reads, asks questions when needed, but doesn't contribute.

I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO. Not that I am criticizing Mr CO by saying he is unpredictable, I felt that I am OK to say what I wanted since you guys are all my friends.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker, LoL!! I was clearly joking but the funny thing is Nayekal may not be...


:) A man can dream can't he....Please excuse the stale comedy,just could not help it.

nayekal only EB2IC demand has excellent visibility. We still continue to guess eB1 EB2ROW usage. So what we do is not quite "no-brainer". But I wouldn't venture to predict somebody;s behavior!! Besides to be honest ... the discretion has only impacted timing rather than the magnitude of the SOFAD available.



....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

...
I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO.
...

[nayekal]

Double duh..
My request is in a lighter vein, which most of us will interpret in our own way...some take it as a joke and some may not.

[RMS_V13]

Sometimes, I feel we are just over analyzing..Reading too much inbetween lines.

No one expected the kind of movement last year. In hindsight, yes we have an explanation for all the movement and can even say it was anticipated. I have never been in the number game, and I have no facts to support this, but my Gut feeling says that there will be movement 2011-2012 upto end of 2008.

Feel free to beat this post to death if you wish :)

[Kanmani]

Hi RMS_V13

Eventhough you say you were never been in the number game, actually you are . Just by reading Q's forum , your subconscious mind is calculating the numbers and as the result here you are , your mind delivers the analysis to your gut feeling .

Your are really but partially in the game my friend .

[kingcaeser]

Dear Q,

Could you please share your thoughts on the possibility of me getting current (PD 17-Sep-2007, EB2 -I). I have been an avid follower of this site and the folks here are wonderful.
Thanks so much my friends!

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??


If I understand correctly, I think Teddy meant that pre-Oct PDs will receive their GCs in hand by the end of FY'12 and not just apply for I485 & EAD.

pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.

[soggadu]

And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

Beta nishant... doing great... all the folic acid i gave you is showing its worth now... lol... jokes apart, great point N... as i have previously mentioned, fab five it is on this forum ;-)...

[soggadu]

Hi RMS_V13

Eventhough you say you were never been in the number game, actually you are . Just by reading Q's forum , your subconscious mind is calculating the numbers and as the result here you are , your mind delivers the analysis to your gut feeling .

Your are really but partially in the game my friend .

Damn it... so it's like a maze then huh.... i wish i get the portkey to get out of this soon (reference hari puttar) ... on other note, i have outsourced numerical analysis to the fab five and receive reports everyday ;-)....

[soggadu]

pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.

ok ji ok!!!!...Please stop saying it again and again.... !!!! it hurts where it shouldnt when i read this.... Waahhhh....

[nishant2200]

Damn it... so it's like a maze then huh.... i wish i get the portkey to get out of this soon (reference hari puttar) ... on other note, i have outsourced numerical analysis to the fab five and receive reports everyday ;-)....

Sogaddu, u officially qualify for EB1C now.

[TeddyKoochu]

ok ji ok!!!!...Please stop saying it again and again.... !!!! it hurts where it shouldnt when i read this.... Waahhhh....

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

[nishant2200]

Going to work after vacation, hopefully by late afternoon, can catch up more with forum, and use actual keyboard :)

The Oct VB has infused life into us, the talk of hibernate for 7 months is gone!

[nishant2200]

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

Excellent summary, it is very pragmatic. If not for porting, I would put Oct 2007 as 100% and Nov 2007 as 80%

[kd2008]

Q,
If EB5C is not allowed any visas for FY2012, how do you see increase in EB5 demand ?

EB5C does not have any visa allocated in the quota. This does not mean that they will get zero visas. What happens with spillover for EB2I-C will happen here similarly. In Q4 of FY 2012, if there are visas available in EB5, then they will be allocated in strict order of PD regardless of country or quota. So EB5C will get all the visas it needs as there are plenty leftover in this category.

[familyguy]

Hi Teddy,
What are the chances of filing 485 for applicants who have 2008 PD's....

Thanks, FG


Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

[donvar]

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
What are the chances of filing 485 for applicants who have 2008 PD's....

Thanks, FG


So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.

Friends this is just an initial assessment. It is purely because of theI140 surge, we all know that it washed out the Aug and Sep bulletins. You would notice on Trackitt that EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals are coming quite fast. I think there is a 15-20% chance for Q1 2008 folks. I hope that this trend can be improved after measuring the approval rates for EB2 ROW and EB1 in Q1 2012. Good luck to all.

[iamdeb]

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

[veni001]

EB5C does not have any visa allocated in the quota. This does not mean that they will get zero visas. What happens with spillover for EB2I-C will happen here similarly. In Q4 of FY 2012, if there are visas available in EB5, then they will be allocated in strict order of PD regardless of country or quota. So EB5C will get all the visas it needs as there are plenty leftover in this category.

kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".

If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?

[veni001]

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

iamdeb,
I think DOS/USCIS know how to move EB2IC cut-off dates to build the pipe line. So I don't think any chances of making "C" for EB2IC.

[bieber]

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

Teddy, this assumes slow date movement from now through Q3.

If CO doesn't believe in builiding pipeline to gather 25K+, he will stop the date right here till July2012 bulletin and that will jeopardize the likelihood of above

[krishnav]

pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.


Thanks Teddy and pch053 for clarification.

[kd2008]

kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".

If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?

I think its highly unlikely that the CSPA would be so restrictive. A country may not be allocated any visas in the quota but to debar it from getting any visas from spillover seems a bit too much.

Take a look at http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07_AppC.pdf

In a few years that restriction will also go away.

[cbpds1]

Teddy, please be more optimistic in ur analysis :) as i get a heartburn everytime i see Dec 2007, mine is unfortunately a month away, jan 2008. :(


Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

[cool_mj007]

Fellow GC aspirants, please support the bill HR 2161, follow the link and make your voice heard: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr2161
Thanks!

[Kanmani]

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.


Teddy

How much spillover including quota would take us to oct 2007 do you think ?
( In other words, if it is going to halt at oct 07 what is the net sofad)

[nishant2200]

I think its highly unlikely that the CSPA would be so restrictive. A country may not be allocated any visas in the quota but to debar it from getting any visas from spillover seems a bit too much.

Take a look at http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07_AppC.pdf

In a few years that restriction will also go away.

I do believe that applying SO to EB5C would be circumventing the CSPA provision, and should ideally be frowned upon. However, right now, EB5 is being touted as something that will improve economy, get jobs etc, hence it may in fact be allowed by government. So both ways it's 50-50. Had it not been for the current economic policy taken by government encouraging EB5, I would have totally sided with Veni here.

[nishant2200]

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

No IMHO the chance is 0.1%.

I did not make it 0 as it is impossible to predict their whims.

It does seem to me that DOS/USCIS have a strategy for this, and we shall see it unfold this year, and the pattern will continue in upcoming FYs. This FY is borderline for that strategy as this FY also consists of some already pre-adjudicated inventory which can show up in demand data, as well as the PWMBs. The PWMB is the part which makes it most tricky. Some PWMB will always be there for various reasons, but the amount should not be as big. Every FY beginning, I think there will always be around 5-10k preadjudicated inventory, so that part is not going to baffle USCIS/DOS.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, please be more optimistic in ur analysis :) as i get a heartburn everytime i see Dec 2007, mine is unfortunately a month away, jan 2008. :(

I understand your feelings my friend, there are some chances for Q1 2008 friends to be able to file for 485, believe around 25%, C maybe be a tough call. This is still very early days.


Teddy

How much spillover including quota would take us to oct 2007 do you think ?
( In other words, if it is going to halt at oct 07 what is the net sofad)

The assumption is ~ 22K SOFAD. My assumption of porting is 6K which is higher than the others. This date is for actual GC issuance the intake must be buffered for ~ 30 (End of Dec 2007).


This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

Chances are very less especially after the Oct bulletin showing guarded intake.

[Reddy001]

My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?

Thanks - Shashidhar

[cbpds1]

One step at a time dude


My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?

Thanks - Shashidhar

[soggadu]

Going to work after vacation, hopefully by late afternoon, can catch up more with forum, and use actual keyboard :)

The Oct VB has infused life into us, the talk of hibernate for 7 months is gone!

wow...u were on vacation all this while???? dude!!!!!...

[soggadu]

Excellent summary, it is very pragmatic. If not for porting, I would put Oct 2007 as 100% and Nov 2007 as 80%

thank you both teddy and N....

On other note... teddy please dont change your stand on numbers... i like it when u are conservative, Q is optimistic, Veni is a she, Spec is analytic and N is all over the place with all his brilliant ideas....

[Reddy001]

One step at a time dude

I know. Just wanted to see what experts gonna say.

[Reddy001]

By the way my original post...
My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?

[manubhai]

If ever there was going to be a piece of legislation that will help EB2IC move forward for those who deserve it, it is THIS.

NOW is the time for you to support it.

If you have a reason to be here on this page, you HAVE to look at this and read the amendments it suggests to section 203(b) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Go and press the Support button NOW!!!

https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr2161

We need to take the number of people supporting this from 15 to 15000.

[qesehmk]

Guys the way VO is moving VISA dates one can get a GC within 2-3 months of filing 485. As per when somebody will be able to file 485 .... PLEASE READ THE FIRST POST and try to STAY CURRENT ON THE THREAD. You should be able to figure out the answers yourself. Its very difficult to answer everybody's personal situations. Besides it doesn't add much value for other people who are reading the thread.


Could you please share your thoughts on the possibility of me getting current (PD 17-Sep-2007, EB2 -I).

My priority date is 07/31/2007 - EB2 I. A question to all experts here -
What would be my appox timeline of getting EAD and Greencard itself?

Nishant / Veni, CSPA only states that quota is zero. I don't think it rules out spillover to EB5.

I do believe that applying SO to EB5C would be circumventing the CSPA provision, and should ideally be frowned upon. However, right now, EB5 is being touted as something that will improve economy, get jobs etc, hence it may in fact be allowed by government. So both ways it's 50-50. Had it not been for the current economic policy taken by government encouraging EB5, I would have totally sided with Veni here.



kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".
If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?


Now that VO has shown clear inclination towards moving dates slowly ahead, I am comfortable saying that in year 2012 teh chances of EB2 being C is ZERO.

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

Don, as of now the mean probability lies around Dec 2007. My own range is Oct 07 - Mar 08.

So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.


Q,
If EB5C is not allowed any visas for FY2012, how do you see increase in EB5 demand ?
Veni, because there is substantial EB5 backlog. And while the chinese cant get any quota, doesn't prohibit them from filing EB5 or getting spillover. China is singlehandedly driving the demand in EB5 IMHO. The zero quota is designed to discourage that. But still the demand is robust.

[Kanmani]

Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 allowed chinese students who were residing in USA in the 90s to immediately obtain their GCs . This was after the students' protest against chinese govt in 1989.

The US Govt issued GCs to those students immediately , by allowing above 7% country limit , with a conditional reduction of 1000 immigrant visas from the annual quota every FY( 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5)

Bill text here.......... http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c102:1:./temp/~c102Y2B9qX::

With "Zero" EB5 Visas alloted every year, I dont think Chinese could apply in EB5 category . But I dont understand the context as well

Qblogfan may have enough information I guess.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Please advise when I might become current to file for 485 and when I can anticipate GC .

[qesehmk]

spillover can't NOT be subject to quota.
And quota doesn't determine eligibility to file 485. Since EB5 is current everybody can file in EB5 as long as other conditions are fulfilled.


Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 allowed chinese students who were residing in USA in the 90s to immediately obtain their GCs . This was after the students' protest against chinese govt in 1989.

The US Govt issued GCs to those students immediately , by allowing above 7% country limit , with a conditional reduction of 1000 immigrant visas from the annual quota every FY( 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5)

Bill text here.......... http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c102:1:./temp/~c102Y2B9qX::

With "Zero" EB5 Visas alloted every year, I dont think Chinese could apply in EB5 category . But I dont understand the context as well

Qblogfan may have enough information I guess.

[nishant2200]

wow...u were on vacation all this while???? dude!!!!!...

Yes, was using iPhone :)

Had a great time in bay area. And the good news of July 15th 2007 on friday, was causing great happiness there, as my cousin has PD of 18th April 2007, and his company had told him layoff in December of this year, so he is highly hopeful of getting GC before that now.

I fully expected later PDs to get the "waiting for visa number" status from customer service, but he is so nearby, so hopefully should get it.

[skpanda]

Please advise when I might become current to file for 485 and when I can anticipate GC .


As Gurus and others have been asking.. please do not ask questions related to your personal PD.

See the Post # 1. Read last few pages and you will definately get an idea of your case.

To answer your question - Refer to post #7383 (it was posted just today).

[nishant2200]

I still think it can be argued in different ways. It can be a lawyer's position that the premise of the 0 allocation to EB5C for this year is being circumvented by using SO as an bypass. This is the kind of stuff which makes for interesting law cases. My own father is a lawyer, as well as most of my maternal family, so been seeing some action since childhood :)


Thank you that makes sense

[usernameone7]

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

Does your prediction take account of the fact that the PERM case numbers do not truly represent the priority date? In many case there is a 2 month lag.

[TeddyKoochu]

Does your prediction take account of the fact that the PERM case numbers do not truly represent the priority date? In many case there is a 2 month lag.

The perm case number has the filing date (PD) as a julian date. For the current prediction I have assumed 6K porting and the distribution as roughly 2.5K per month.

[Kanmani]

Does your prediction take account of the fact that the PERM case numbers do not truly represent the priority date? In many case there is a 2 month lag.

The two months lag will be cancelled

example

A. Case number A-06300-xxxx registered in November 2006 but Perm actually filed in Jan 2007 ( PD in Jan 07)
B. Case number A-07300-xxxx registered in Nov 07 but has PD in Jan 08

A and B get cancelled eachother, assuming

Total nos of A = Total nos of B ( or)
Total nos of A - Total nos of B = negligible

[piratla]

Remember, we all signed a petition and sent it to our respective congress members, I got a reply today. Here it is

Dear Mr. Piratla:



Thank you for your letter in support of making more employment-based U.S. visas available for highly-skilled foreign workers. I appreciate knowing your views on this matter.



Employment-based visas to the U.S. are significantly oversubscribed, which has created long wait times for individuals who have had their visa applications approved and are only waiting for a visa to become available. I recognize the patience of individuals who have followed the rules and appreciate hearing your support for making more visas available for workers in highly-skilled trades.



As you may be aware, visas are made available to approved applicants in order of the date on which applications are filed and according to an applicant's relationship to the person who petitioned for their visa. I encourage you to review the U.S. State Department's most recent Visa Bulletin for detailed information on visa availability. This can be accessed online at: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html.



Please know that I am committed to passing comprehensive immigration reform, including improvements to reduce wait times and ensure that our visa programs are able to meet critical labor shortages in the United States. I also believe reforms should provide adequate protections for qualified Americans who are out of work.




Again, thank you for your letter. If you have any additional questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to be in touch with my Washington, D.C. office at (202) 224-3841. Best regards.



Sincerely yours,

Dianne Feinstein
United States Senator

Further information about my position on issues of concern to California and the Nation are available at my website, Feinstein.senate.gov. You can also receive electronic e-mail updates by subscribing to my e-mail list. Click here to sign up. Feel free to checkout my YouTube Page.

[nishant2200]

Ron Gotcher says this:
"What they are saying is that they want to generate maximum I-485 filings as early in the fiscal year as possible. If we believe that the USCIS has almost wiped out its inventory of pending China/India EB2 cases with pre-July 2007 priority dates, then this strategy makes sense. The USCIS is and always has been very slow when it comes to processing I-485 applications. They show a six month "average" processing time not because that is the actual processing time average, but rather because Congress passed a "sense of the Congress" resolution that AOS processing should not take longer than six months. Rather than post the actual (longer) average processing time, they show six months.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the USCIS has totally wiped out their backlog of China/India EB2 AOS cases (this isn't really the case, but let's assume it for this example). Since the USCIS gets about 85% of all EB AOS cases, this means that they will need to process about 120,000 EB AOS cases this fiscal year in order to exhaust the quota. If they fail to hit that mark, visas could be wasted.

If this is the case, or anything close to it, then the State Department needs to front load filings for the year. This means that they would likely advance cutoff dates far beyond where they should be in order to attract as many AOS filings as possible. Also, they need to do it as early in the year as possible so that the USCIS has maximum time to process those cases to completion.

If the USCIS fails to approve enough cases to get close to exhausting the quota, we can expect to see further unusually fast cutoff date movement starting next Spring."

[nishant2200]

And another official proof of NVC fee bills coming from attorney, Ron Gotcher himself:
" Re: Visa dates movement and some unaswered questions and future .......
I don't think that anyone outside of the State Department has a clue as to future cutoff date movement in the short term. There are just too many unknown variables. Perhaps the best indication is the interval we see between when the NVC sends the fee bill and the individual's priority date. Generally, the NVC does not send a fee bill until they estimate that the person's priority date will be current within half a year. I randomly picked three fee bills that we have received in the last few months to get an idea of what the NVC is doing. In April, we got a fee bill for an India EB2 applicant with a cutoff date of September, 2007. In May we got one for someone with a cutoff date in November. In June we got one for someone with a cutoff date in January, 2008. When I get time, I'll go through all of our fee bills and put together a list of the fee bill dates and the corresponding cutoff dates.

Before anyone tries to use this for precise calculations, please understand that the NVC simply makes their best guess. They could be off by months. At the same time, they have access to the best backlog data available."

and another useful to know post in same thread:
"Re: Visa dates movement and some unaswered questions and future .......
In the long term, we are likely to get accurate data. For example, the USCIS has recalled almost all of the EB adjustment cases that were sent to district offices for interviews. When that process is complete, we will have a very accurate picture of the demand pending before the USCIS. Unfortunately, that still leaves the approved I-140s that are designated for adjustment of status, but for which an I-485 has not yet been filed due to visa unavailability. It is completely beyond my comprehension why the USCIS has never counted these cases. They can tell you how many I-140s they have approved, but they can't tell you the countries of charge or the priority dates. Since that data exists in their database, it is beyond belief that they have never captured it and given it to the State Department for forecasting purposes."

[gchopeful123]

Can someone pl enlighten me on this? Thanks


Congrats to everyone who is current for Oct. Though I think most of you would be documentarily qualified, I had some questions on the I-485 filing once PD is current. Note that my PD is Sep 2007, therefore I havent been able to even file I-485 yet, but need to be prepared.

1) How much time is available to file the I-485 once the PD becomes current e.g. if PD is current within Oct 11 VB, does it mean that the application can be submitted any time between Oct 1 - Oct 31? - or is it critical that the application reach USCIS on Oct 1st itself?

2) If there is a delay in medical evaluation, can the I-485 be submitted first just to get the foot in the door and the medical forms submitted later on?

3) I have copy of birth certificates which are in english and with accurate information. In this case, are affidavits still required or will the birth certificates suffice?

Thanks

[skpanda]

Friends... I have a quick question -

Sorry to digress from main objective of this forum -

a. Say a person with 8 years experience joins Company A (full time) as Senior Developer.
b. Company A files for GC in EB3.
c. 8 years pass by and the person gets promoted 2 times to a Senior Architect/Middle Management role in the same Company A.
d. Now when the person's PD is current, is the old GC application for Senior Developer still valid? and he can take the GC even though he was promoted and his position is totally different that what was filed in Labor/I140?
e. If this person wants to port to EB2, is there any problem retaining the old PD?

Appreciate your inputs. Thanks!

[nishant2200]

Can someone pl enlighten me on this? Thanks

Replied below:
Congrats to everyone who is current for Oct. Though I think most of you would be documentarily qualified, I had some questions on the I-485 filing once PD is current. Note that my PD is Sep 2007, therefore I havent been able to even file I-485 yet, but need to be prepared.

1) How much time is available to file the I-485 once the PD becomes current e.g. if PD is current within Oct 11 VB, does it mean that the application can be submitted any time between Oct 1 - Oct 31? - or is it critical that the application reach USCIS on Oct 1st itself?

Your PD should be current when they receive your application (or postmarked, not sure, can anyone else enlighten), this is my understanding. the VB is for a month, so Oct 1st to Oct 31st, anytime it can reach. Now when you are in October, the November bulletin will be released, so if that bulletin says that the date is retrogressed, then your date won't be current in November. It is not necessary that it reaches on the 1st itself, however I have heard that the receipt date of the application may matter, especially when there is crunch time to release visas, i.e. visas are less, and demand span is more. So best to get it in as early as possible.

2) If there is a delay in medical evaluation, can the I-485 be submitted first just to get the foot in the door and the medical forms submitted later on?

You surely get RFE for medicals if they are incomplete or not provided, I have never heard of a case where you got directly denied. Please ask a lawyer for fool-proof answer. IMHO, we should get the medicals done, and not take a chance. I would be ready to drive 200 miles into another state or city if all the approved civil surgeons in my city are busy and can't give appointment.

3) I have copy of birth certificates which are in english and with accurate information. In this case, are affidavits still required or will the birth certificates suffice?

You don't need affidavit.

[qesehmk]

First gchopeful - I think the postmark on your application needs to be in a time period when the dates were current. Its ok for application to reach when dates retrogress. But check w lawyer.


skpanda,we have explained earlier on this forum that you can have promotions within your job and it doesn't affect GC. If you get a totally different job then probably you wil need to file labor and can still capture the PD from EB3. So its almost same as porting except that you will have 2 different GC applications on file at same time.


Friends... I have a quick question -

Sorry to digress from main objective of this forum -

a. Say a person with 8 years experience joins Company A (full time) as Senior Developer.
b. Company A files for GC in EB3.
c. 8 years pass by and the person gets promoted 2 times to a Senior Architect/Middle Management role in the same Company A.
d. Now when the person's PD is current, is the old GC application for Senior Developer still valid? and he can take the GC even though he was promoted and his position is totally different that what was filed in Labor/I140?
e. If this person wants to port to EB2, is there any problem retaining the old PD?

Appreciate your inputs. Thanks!



I still think it can be argued in different ways. It can be a lawyer's position that the premise of the 0 allocation to EB5C for this year is being circumvented by using SO as an bypass. This is the kind of stuff which makes for interesting law cases. My own father is a lawyer, as well as most of my maternal family, so been seeing some action since childhood :)
I disagree Nishant. Law says a country shall not exceed 7% except under 203(a) or (b)... (spec will know the exactly subsection etc). Then the CSPA says that 1000 should be deducted from the chinese quota (overall .... not necessarily EB5). So now they have reduced the chinese limit to X-1000 where X was previous limit. But that new limit X-1000 is out of the window once 203(a)/(b) applies.

[imdeng]

Question for Gurus. Is there any credence to the line of thought that the 07/07 fiasco forced a lot of people to file 485s in July who would have normally filed some time later. Because of that, 485 demand right after 07/07 PD should be less dense i.e. PD will move forward quicker once we cross mid-Aug 2007.

I know that our current optimistic expectations for PD movement in next spillover season is up to Q1-2008. I am quite far away with a 08/2009 PD. Still, who knows - all in all, we moved more than a year this season (including the last VB) and 2007 was supposed to be the most dense 485 period ever.

[nishant2200]

Nope. no credence. remaining 2007 and 2008 was also equally dense. even 2010 saw lots of labors.

See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

plug in your EB2 : EB3 ratios for 2007 and 2008 as 60 : 40, 2009 as 65 : 35, dependent factor as 2.05, assume each PERM led to a 140, and 140 approval rate as 80%. You can of course adjust these estimates, I am just giving ballpark estimates of these variables. You will see that it's not really less dense.


Question for Gurus. Is there any credence to the line of thought that the 07/07 fiasco forced a lot of people to file 485s in July who would have normally filed some time later. Because of that, 485 demand right after 07/07 PD should be less dense i.e. PD will move forward quicker once we cross mid-Aug 2007.

I know that our current optimistic expectations for PD movement in next spillover season is up to Q1-2008. I am quite far away with a 08/2009 PD. Still, who knows - all in all, we moved more than a year this season (including the last VB) and 2007 was supposed to be the most dense 485 period ever.

[qblogfan]

yes, CSPA was for the students protesters in 1990s. I heard in that period Chinese students could get GC immediately after their planes landed. In fact most of the people who got GC from CSPA didn't take part in any protest and they just lie to get GC. Until today if you lie to the government that you can't born your second child in China and you can get a GC through refugee path. These are just shameless lies. These people don't do shit and have minimum contribution to the society, but they can get GC in several months. On the contrary, EB immigrants have to work their ass off and go through endless waiting to get GC. Isn't it awesome?


Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992 allowed chinese students who were residing in USA in the 90s to immediately obtain their GCs . This was after the students' protest against chinese govt in 1989.

The US Govt issued GCs to those students immediately , by allowing above 7% country limit , with a conditional reduction of 1000 immigrant visas from the annual quota every FY( 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5)

Bill text here.......... http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c102:1:./temp/~c102Y2B9qX::

With "Zero" EB5 Visas alloted every year, I dont think Chinese could apply in EB5 category . But I dont understand the context as well

Qblogfan may have enough information I guess.

[memk26]

Experts, sorry for the off-topic, but need to ask this, is polio vaccination required for I-485 filing? I am Indian born with no vaccination records..anyone please ?

[Spectator]

I disagree Nishant. Law says a country shall not exceed 7% except under 203(a) or (b)... (spec will know the exactly subsection etc). Then the CSPA says that 1000 should be deducted from the chinese quota (overall .... not necessarily EB5). So now they have reduced the chinese limit to X-1000 where X was previous limit. But that new limit X-1000 is out of the window once 203(a)/(b) applies.Q,

I agree with you.

I'll post again from a previous post.


It was the quid pro quo for the CHINESE STUDENT PROTECTION ACT of 1992 (S.1216 102nd Congress) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c102:S.1216: .

From the Bill :


(d) OFFSET IN PER COUNTRY NUMERICAL LEVEL-

(1) IN GENERAL- The numerical level under section 202(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act applicable to natives of the People's Republic of China in each applicable fiscal year (as defined in paragraph (3)) shall be reduced by 1,000.

(2) ALLOTMENT IF SECTION 202(e) APPLIES- If section 202(e) of the Immigration and Nationality Act is applied to the People's Republic of China in an applicable fiscal year, in applying such section--

(A) 300 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(3)(A)(i) [EB3] of such Act in that year, and

(B) 700 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(5) [EB5] of such Act in that year.

The same reduction was also shown for this year in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

It has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Since China represents the bulk of EB5 approvals, CO either has to wait until July to release numbers to China as spillover, or more likely since demand from other Countries has been so low, operate Quarterly Spillover, which would not have the dangers inherent in operating it in EB2.

The effects of the Chinese Student Protection Act will have no bearing on lowering the number of EB5 approvals, either in FY2011 or FY2012.

Because 700 visas have been deemed to have already been issued, EB5-C starts the year having already reached the 7% limit of 696. The only way this can be expressed is that there are zero EB5 visas available to EB5-C as the initial limit.

When the spillover provisions of INA 202(a)(5)(A) are invoked, EB5-C can exceed that 7% limit and since they will have the earliest PD (having waited all year) and the highest demand, they will use as many visas as is needed via FA, since EB5 does not currently reach its overall 7.1% limit.

As I said before, because of the Country profile for EB5 approvals, it would not surprise me if the Visa Office do not operate quarterly spillover in EB5, meaning that Chinese applicants do not have to wait until Q4 to receive any EB5 approvals.

In FY2010, from the Demand Data document, the allocations were shown as follows:

---------------- All Other -- Worldwide
Pref -- China -- Countries ------ Limit
E5 ------ 41* -------- 741 ----- 10,593

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the E5 category.

That did not stop China receiving 772 EB5 visas in FY2010.

It is actually worse for EB3-C. 300 visas are deemed to have already been issued, so their initial allocation is reduced to 2,503. Since demand exceeds supply in EB3, there is no FA and EB3 receives no FD - consequently, those visas are a real loss to EB3-C of over 10% of the normal allocation.

[nishant2200]

Experts, sorry for the off-topic, but need to ask this, is polio vaccination required for I-485 filing? I am Indian born with no vaccination records..anyone please ?

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-693.pdf

it shows a bunch load of vaccinations.

I also don't have any record, and am just planning to have the civil surgeon who is doing my form, to administer me all the shots he has to.

[nishant2200]

I signed up. No harm in trying on this.


If ever there was going to be a piece of legislation that will help EB2IC move forward for those who deserve it, it is THIS.

NOW is the time for you to support it.

If you have a reason to be here on this page, you HAVE to look at this and read the amendments it suggests to section 203(b) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Go and press the Support button NOW!!!

https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr2161

We need to take the number of people supporting this from 15 to 15000.

[GCDespo]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-693.pdf

it shows a bunch load of vaccinations.

I also don't have any record, and am just planning to have the civil surgeon who is doing my form, to administer me all the shots he has to.

Nishant,

These Civil sugreons are charging a arm and a leg for these vaccines.I heard that some one from my work paid 2000$ and in the end they came to know that they are not medcial doctors at all. I asked this person why did'nt he checked on USCIS website. He said he got the name from there. He could have gotten it from a look alike fake website.. who knows.. So friends be careful.

Coming to my case, In 2007 when I expected to file,I got this checkup done and paid about 1000 $. I had most of the vaccinations done for my students records for masters and they still found few missing shots.

I took an appointment for next week to get this done and this even though I have everything they said they are going to charge me 420$ (I am not calling them 420's) they said I may need a vaccination for chicken pox.. and they may have to give me flu vaccine.Wich is 50 dollors more. I am thinking may be I can get a flu shot at my pharmacy for some 20$... or save the time and get everything done at one time.Dr doctors are quoting different amounts ..I selected this one since he is the only one who gave me an appointment over next weekend.


So friends. Shop around and be careful.. Go with the one that your friends have al;ready used even though they cost more.If you do not have any refferels or help atleast try to google the names and see the reviews.

[GCDespo]

Experts, sorry for the off-topic, but need to ask this, is polio vaccination required for I-485 filing? I am Indian born with no vaccination records..anyone please ?

I am also an Indian born with no vaccination recods.. I think no one is born with a vaccination recod but get the records built over time:p

[GCDespo]

I am also an Indian born with no vaccination recods.. I think no one is born with a vaccination recod but get the records built over time:p

I am just teasing you.. I know you meant "I am an Indian born,with no vaccination records"

[nishant2200]

I am convinced now. Thanks for the detailed digging.


Q,

I agree with you.

I'll post again from a previous post.



Because 700 visas have been deemed to have already been issued, EB5-C starts the year having already reached the 7% limit of 696. The only way this can be expressed is that there are zero EB5 visas available to EB5-C as the initial limit.

When the spillover provisions of INA 202(a)(5)(A) are invoked, EB5-C can exceed that 7% limit and since they will have the earliest PD (having waited all year) and the highest demand, they will use as many visas as is needed via FA, since EB5 does not currently reach its overall 7.1% limit.

As I said before, because of the Country profile for EB5 approvals, it would not surprise me if the Visa Office do not operate quarterly spillover in EB5, meaning that Chinese applicants do not have to wait until Q4 to receive any EB5 approvals.

In FY2010, from the Demand Data document, the allocations were shown as follows:

---------------- All Other -- Worldwide
Pref -- China -- Countries ------ Limit
E5 ------ 41* -------- 741 ----- 10,593

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the E5 category.

That did not stop China receiving 772 EB5 visas in FY2010.

It is actually worse for EB3-C. 300 visas are deemed to have already been issued, so their initial allocation is reduced to 2,503. Since demand exceeds supply in EB3, there is no FA and EB3 receives no FD - consequently, those visas are a real loss to EB3-C of over 10% of the normal allocation.

[nishant2200]

Great advice and really good to know. Thank you very much.

I really regret I don't have any record. Maybe I should investigate in the US university I did masters in, if they have any proof for me, at least will save some money.


Nishant,

These Civil sugreons are charging a arm and a leg for these vaccines.I heard that some one from my work paid 2000$ and in the end they came to know that they are not medcial doctors at all. I asked this person why did'nt he checked on USCIS website. He said he got the name from there. He could have gotten it from a look alike fake website.. who knows.. So friends be careful.

Coming to my case, In 2007 when I expected to file,I got this checkup done and paid about 1000 $. I had most of the vaccinations done for my students records for masters and they still found few missing shots.

I took an appointment for next week to get this done and this even though I have everything they said they are going to charge me 420$ (I am not calling them 420's) they said I may need a vaccination for chicken pox.. and they may have to give me flu vaccine.Wich is 50 dollors more. I am thinking may be I can get a flu shot at my pharmacy for some 20$... or save the time and get everything done at one time.Dr doctors are quoting different amounts ..I selected this one since he is the only one who gave me an appointment over next weekend.


So friends. Shop around and be careful.. Go with the one that your friends have al;ready used even though they cost more.If you do not have any refferels or help atleast try to google the names and see the reviews.

[venoo_d]

Hi Gurus please give me some idea,
My priority date was 29Aug2007 - EB2 India.
1. what is the best guess my date will be current?
2. my wife went to India, attended for H1B visa stamping in Hyderabad, on 8thAug2011, got 221G Yellow, they held her passport, and submitted required documents on 10Aug2011. there was no response from Hyderabad consulate till now.
3. If my date become current, what is the best option for me, regarding my wife is in India, to file i-485

Thank you,
Venu

[nishant2200]

This time I have a question.

If you get EAD/AP, and also have a H1 extension, but you don't have that H1 stamped in your passport, you go to India and come back on AP, and once you do so, what is the status of your H1, is it still valid, and say I go to India again, I can this time go to consulate and get the H1 stamped if I choose to, or say if I find another job, I can get that H1 transferred?

[qesehmk]

I asked the same question to my lawyer few years back and the answer was even if you come back using AP your status is still H1/AOS. In other words H1 is still valid. No change whatsoever. But pls check w your lawyer too.


This time I have a question.

If you get EAD/AP, and also have a H1 extension, but you don't have that H1 stamped in your passport, you go to India and come back on AP, and once you do so, what is the status of your H1, is it still valid, and say I go to India again, I can this time go to consulate and get the H1 stamped if I choose to, or say if I find another job, I can get that H1 transferred?

[nishant2200]

Thanks Q. I will ask the lawyer definitely and apprise of the answer.

Really good to know, I am really really very eager to get to file 485 now, freedom from the long trip to Consulate and the hours of wait inside. Interestingly, this comes to mind as the most important reason to file 485 for me, to be able to travel freely, then other nice things come to mind :)

I asked the same question to my lawyer few years back and the answer was even if you come back using AP your status is still H1/AOS. In other words H1 is still valid. No change whatsoever. But pls check w your lawyer too.

[qesehmk]

hey aamachee mumbai. tumhee mumbaiche kaay?


Thanks Q. I will ask the lawyer definitely and apprise of the answer.

Really good to know, I am really really very eager to get to file 485 now, freedom from the long trip to Consulate and the hours of wait inside. Interestingly, this comes to mind as the most important reason to file 485 for me, to be able to travel freely, then other nice things come to mind :)

[nishant2200]

Yup, Mumbai consulate it is, but my city is far away from there. for me, it's totally foreign city, each time I go there, I just get perplexed by the vastness and lost.

And waiting for hours inside, with all sorts of people talking, trying to listen to my number being called on loudspeaker, with 3 year old daughter, certainly doesn't sound exciting. At least they allow children inside, she don't need visa. Else I would have to find someone to keep my child while I am inside with wife.

I did see Rajesh Khanna, Vilasrao Deshmukh, many TV actors etc, basically each time you go to Mumbai local or international airport, keep your eyes open, you will bump into celebrity. Haven't seen a single celebrity however here, in my 10 years, living in 30 mile radius around Hollywood.


hey aamachee mumbai. tumhee mumbaiche kaay?

[qesehmk]

Now I am surely digressing ... but I have very fond memories of Mumbai. Worked there for a few years as well as spent some time at IIT Powai. Beuatiful city and real helpful people. It made me feel at home. And the place that seems very similar to Mumbai in US is ...yes you guessed it right - New York city and surrounding areas. But course dont mean the wealth and all. But the speed, the rhythm, the annonymity and rather helpful people and the immigrant city etc.


Yup, Mumbai consulate it is, but my city is far away from there. for me, it's totally foreign city, each time I go there, I just get perplexed by the vastness and lost.

And waiting for hours inside, with all sorts of people talking, trying to listen to my number being called on loudspeaker, with 3 year old daughter, certainly doesn't sound exciting. At least they allow children inside, she don't need visa. Else I would have to find someone to keep my child while I am inside with wife.

I did see Rajesh Khanna, Vilasrao Deshmukh, many TV actors etc, basically each time you go to Mumbai local or international airport, keep your eyes open, you will bump into celebrity. Haven't seen a single celebrity however here, in my 10 years, living in 30 mile radius around Hollywood.

[soggadu]

This time I have a question.

If you get EAD/AP, and also have a H1 extension, but you don't have that H1 stamped in your passport, you go to India and come back on AP, and once you do so, what is the status of your H1, is it still valid, and say I go to India again, I can this time go to consulate and get the H1 stamped if I choose to, or say if I find another job, I can get that H1 transferred?

hmm... Are you allowed to ask questions N?? I wish you could apply for 485 soon....

my question....once you apply for 485, how many days/months/years does it take to get EAD/AP provided I apply for these along with 485....

on other note... Am partly from Maharashtra ..... Did my engg from Wardha....spent best 4 yrs of my life there.....

[nishant2200]

:)

the Immigration matters are so complicated at times, it's beyond us mortals. I have great interest in law, and wanted to do online law study for J.D. degree at Taft university, and earlier I was interested in criminal law, but now maybe it should be immigration! I just can't find time with my work to study this degree. Hopefully after GC, my wife can contribute something, and I can take it bit easy.

have heard of wardha, thanks for sharing.

Sorry Q, I have also digressed a bit today on some posts. well we always have our other buckets to shift these posts in!


hmm... Are you allowed to ask questions N?? I wish you could apply for 485 soon....

my question....once you apply for 485, how many days/months/years does it take to get EAD/AP provided I apply for these along with 485....

on other note... Am partly from Maharashtra ..... Did my engg from Wardha....spent best 4 yrs of my life there......

[nishant2200]

about the days to get EAD/AP, I believe it is max 90 days, there is an SLA of 90 days.

You can only apply 120 days before expiry, and if you don't get within 90 days, you can take infopass and get temporary EAD card.

Also when you file 485, there is no seperate application for EAD/AP. It is part of same application.


hmm... Are you allowed to ask questions N?? I wish you could apply for 485 soon....

my question....once you apply for 485, how many days/months/years does it take to get EAD/AP provided I apply for these along with 485....

on other note... Am partly from Maharashtra ..... Did my engg from Wardha....spent best 4 yrs of my life there.....

[iatiam]

Does any body agree with me that the cut-off dates moved because of the money that Q is providing to charity thereby increasing the Karma index. Guru's might want to add that as a variable to the calculations. Any ways, I am going to keep refreshing the pages to increase the views.

[Spectator]

This time I have a question.

If you get EAD/AP, and also have a H1 extension, but you don't have that H1 stamped in your passport, you go to India and come back on AP, and once you do so, what is the status of your H1, is it still valid, and say I go to India again, I can this time go to consulate and get the H1 stamped if I choose to, or say if I find another job, I can get that H1 transferred?nishant,

I am going to disagree with Q slightly on this one.

If you return using AP, you will be a Parolee and this is evidenced by the I-94 that is issued when you return.

Due to the legacy Cronin memo, if you are returning to work for your H1B employer, you are allowed to continue using the Employment Authorization component of the H1B approval and do not need to use EAD.

This is not the same as being in H1B status. This could be important, if for example there are H4 dependents relying on the H1B older maintaining H1B status.

The H1B approval remains valid and it is possible to return to H1B status.

You can return to H1B status by either leaving the USA and returning using an H1B visa, or when an H1B extension (with attached I-94) becomes effective.

The Cronin memo can be found here http://shusterman.com/h1blvisasmemoworkingadvanceparole.html

A really good article explaining it is on the Murthy site here http://www.murthy.com/news/n_efftrv.html

To answer your questions, yes you can use AP and then at a later date get the stamping and re-enter using your H1B visa.

I don't know the answer about transfer, but that does seem possible and indeed the Murthy article says it is, since it is really only an amendment/extension request.

As always, consult a lawyer when dealing with important issues.

[MeraGC1]

Hi Gurus,
Based on the calculations and SOFAD, do you think the below scenario is possible?

PD_Year, PD_Quarter, PD Current (to be able to file for 485)
2007 Q3 DEC 2011
2007 Q4 SEPT 2012
2008 Q1 DEC 2012
2008 Q2 MAY 2013
2008 Q3 SEPT 2013

So on...

Thanks

[nishant2200]

Wov, that's really detailed n very helpful. Thanks a lot.


nishant,

I am going to disagree with Q slightly on this one.

If you return using AP, you will be a Parolee and this is evidenced by the I-94 that is issued when you return.

Due to the legacy Cronin memo, if you are returning to work for your H1B employer, you are allowed to continue using the Employment Authorization component of the H1B approval and do not need to use EAD.

This is not the same as being in H1B status. This could be important, if for example there are H4 dependents relying on the H1B older maintaining H1B status.

The H1B approval remains valid and it is possible to return to H1B status.

You can return to H1B status by either leaving the USA and returning using an H1B visa, or when an H1B extension (with attached I-94) becomes effective.

The Cronin memo can be found here http://shusterman.com/h1blvisasmemoworkingadvanceparole.html

A really good article explaining it is on the Murthy site here http://www.murthy.com/news/n_efftrv.html

To answer your questions, yes you can use AP and then at a later date get the stamping and re-enter using your H1B visa.

I don't know the answer about transfer, but that does seem possible and indeed the Murthy article says it is, since it is really only an amendment/extension request.

As always, consult a lawyer when dealing with important issues.

[gchopeful123]

Nishant, Q
Thanks for your inputs!!!


Replied below:
Congrats to everyone who is current for Oct. Though I think most of you would be documentarily qualified, I had some questions on the I-485 filing once PD is current. Note that my PD is Sep 2007, therefore I havent been able to even file I-485 yet, but need to be prepared.

1) How much time is available to file the I-485 once the PD becomes current e.g. if PD is current within Oct 11 VB, does it mean that the application can be submitted any time between Oct 1 - Oct 31? - or is it critical that the application reach USCIS on Oct 1st itself?

Your PD should be current when they receive your application (or postmarked, not sure, can anyone else enlighten), this is my understanding. the VB is for a month, so Oct 1st to Oct 31st, anytime it can reach. Now when you are in October, the November bulletin will be released, so if that bulletin says that the date is retrogressed, then your date won't be current in November. It is not necessary that it reaches on the 1st itself, however I have heard that the receipt date of the application may matter, especially when there is crunch time to release visas, i.e. visas are less, and demand span is more. So best to get it in as early as possible.

2) If there is a delay in medical evaluation, can the I-485 be submitted first just to get the foot in the door and the medical forms submitted later on?

You surely get RFE for medicals if they are incomplete or not provided, I have never heard of a case where you got directly denied. Please ask a lawyer for fool-proof answer. IMHO, we should get the medicals done, and not take a chance. I would be ready to drive 200 miles into another state or city if all the approved civil surgeons in my city are busy and can't give appointment.

3) I have copy of birth certificates which are in english and with accurate information. In this case, are affidavits still required or will the birth certificates suffice?

You don't need affidavit.

[superdesi2100]

Yup, Mumbai consulate it is, but my city is far away from there. for me, it's totally foreign city, each time I go there, I just get perplexed by the vastness and lost.

And waiting for hours inside, with all sorts of people talking, trying to listen to my number being called on loudspeaker, with 3 year old daughter, certainly doesn't sound exciting. At least they allow children inside, she don't need visa. Else I would have to find someone to keep my child while I am inside with wife.

I did see Rajesh Khanna, Vilasrao Deshmukh, many TV actors etc, basically each time you go to Mumbai local or international airport, keep your eyes open, you will bump into celebrity. Haven't seen a single celebrity however here, in my 10 years, living in 30 mile radius around Hollywood.

You just reminded me of my experience at US Consulate in Mumbai 11 years ago. They did not have appointment system at that time. I reached consulate at 5:00 in the morning to line up. It started pouring at 5:30 and I was drenched. When I reached inside, I was still drenched. The A/C inside made me sick instantly. In all this, you really had to pay attention to understand their announcements from their partly kaput speakers. Hell, my first visa appearance had resulted in a rejection just 5 days ago. In those days, you were only allowed two appearances. I knew that it was my last chance to get a visa.

What made me angry at that time was when my number came and when I reached the window, the Immigration Officer gave me a visa without asking a single question. Now why would you reject someone only to give him a visa 5 days later without asking a single question!?

I have been there twice since then - both times for H1B. Now I have an EAD and I don't have to worry about going there and stand in front of those whimsical Immigration officers... EAD / AP do give you a lot of freedom. I hope you get it in November...

[Sandeep2011]

Nishant bhai, there are two separate applications for EAD and AP respectively, I-765 for EAD and I-131 for AP. These are optional when you are filing your I-485.

[mvinayam]

Nishant,

These Civil sugreons are charging a arm and a leg for these vaccines.I heard that some one from my work paid 2000$ and in the end they came to know that they are not medcial doctors at all. I asked this person why did'nt he checked on USCIS website. He said he got the name from there. He could have gotten it from a look alike fake website.. who knows.. So friends be careful.

Coming to my case, In 2007 when I expected to file,I got this checkup done and paid about 1000 $. I had most of the vaccinations done for my students records for masters and they still found few missing shots.

I took an appointment for next week to get this done and this even though I have everything they said they are going to charge me 420$ (I am not calling them 420's) they said I may need a vaccination for chicken pox.. and they may have to give me flu vaccine.Wich is 50 dollors more. I am thinking may be I can get a flu shot at my pharmacy for some 20$... or save the time and get everything done at one time.Dr doctors are quoting different amounts ..I selected this one since he is the only one who gave me an appointment over next weekend.


So friends. Shop around and be careful.. Go with the one that your friends have al;ready used even though they cost more.If you do not have any refferels or help atleast try to google the names and see the reviews.

Hi,

Check with county's Imminization program. There will be a Vaccine Clinics where you can get the Vaccine for a much much cheaper rate. We did the same in 2007 as we didnt had any Vaccination records back from india.

mvinayam

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai, there are two separate applications for EAD and AP respectively, I-765 for EAD and I-131 for AP. These are optional when you are filing your I-485.

Thank you for correcting!. There is no separte filing fee, but these two optional form need to be filled out. Another example of unnecessary complication, these should be probably just two checkboxes on I-485 form!

[iamdeb]

Read last night about USCIS running out of VISA number in the following link.
Wanted to share it here in case its worth discussion.
Mods, in case this is irrelevant plz remove.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/748030531/uscis-ran-out-of-2011-visas

[gc0907]

Guys,
I have a question about Passport renewal which I posted here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?159-Passport-Expiring-and-VisaBulletin-Movement&p=8624#post8624
If anyone can please throw some light on that.
Thanks.

[goforgreen]

Guys, congratulations to everyone who is current, may you get your GC/EAD soon. Its good to see Q, Teddy, Spec and Veni's predictions come true albeit a month late. My PD is Dec 2007, I've a question regarding filing 485 and India travel. I'm currently on H1(extension approved, stamping not done) and I'm planning to make an India trip in December 2011. If my date becomes current in Nov - Dec 2011, can I apply for 485 in Novemeber and still be able to go to India in December without impacting the 485 application? Friends please help, I dont want to miss applying after waiting for 4 years for this opportunity.

[evoori]

Guys, congratulations to everyone who is current, may you get your GC/EAD soon. Its good to see Q, Teddy, Spec and Veni's predictions come true albeit a month late. My PD is Dec 2007, I've a question regarding filing 485 and India travel. I'm currently on H1(extension approved, stamping not done) and I'm planning to make an India trip in December 2011. If my date becomes current in Nov - Dec 2011, can I apply for 485 in Novemeber and still be able to go to India in December without impacting the 485 application? Friends please help, I dont want to miss applying after waiting for 4 years for this opportunity.

I have the same question.. only difference is I am traveling in Feb next year..(PD Sep 2007 and H1 Stamped)..
any suggestions on how I485 filing could affect our trip to home ?? TIA

[gcoracle]

goforgreen, I am in the same situation as yours. If it gets current in Nov, then will go ahead with my trip in Dec. If it gets current in December, will try to make sure the attorney files 485 on Dec 1st and then leave. I did not buy the tickets yet, will buy them when there is some clarity.

[veni001]

Guys, congratulations to everyone who is current, may you get your GC/EAD soon. Its good to see Q, Teddy, Spec and Veni's predictions come true albeit a month late. My PD is Dec 2007, I've a question regarding filing 485 and India travel. I'm currently on H1(extension approved, stamping not done) and I'm planning to make an India trip in December 2011. If my date becomes current in Nov - Dec 2011, can I apply for 485 in Novemeber and still be able to go to India in December without impacting the 485 application? Friends please help, I dont want to miss applying after waiting for 4 years for this opportunity.


I have the same question.. only difference is I am traveling in Feb next year..(PD Sep 2007 and H1 Stamped)..
any suggestions on how I485 filing could affect our trip to home ?? TIA


goforgreen, I am in the same situation as yours. If it gets current in Nov, then will go ahead with my trip in Dec. If it gets current in December, will try to make sure the attorney files 485 on Dec 1st and then leave. I did not buy the tickets yet, will buy them when there is some clarity.

Yes you can travel without 485 receipt, EAD/AP in hand.

Please refer to "Adjustment of Status and Travel : Your Questions Answered! (http://www.murthy.com/news/n_aostrv.html)" posted on MurthyDotCom.

[skpanda]

me too...

got BC for me and my wife... they were registered 3 or 4 years after the birth date. When my parents were in USA last time, i got two affidavits from them in the USA.

My wifes parents sent their affidavits from India.

We did all these just to be safe than sorry... it does not take much to get an affidavit done in India.. few hundred bucks (rupees) i guess...


If any one wants the affidavit template... (given to me by my company attorneys)... you can find it in post #7490 if this thread...

cheers!

[soggadu]

thanks N... on other note... went thru this article

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/visa-bulletin-october-2011.html

My opinion is, he is definitely following this forum... i can make it out by the wordings used... And also, i feel he is right in the estimations keeping in view of the current allocations for EB1/EB2 ROW... any comments uncles and aunties???

[nishant2200]

sogaddu, I actually think he does have his own ideas too, and he in fact does analysis for various categories and a multitude of immigration matters. I agree about the wordings usage, about PWMB etc. But overall looks like helpful guy, he replies to everyone's questions, in a polite manner, although it's clear the website is for commerical gains, nothing wrong in that.

His analysis is good on this one, everyone has his point of view and assumptions in calculations, as well as the stuff posted by me from Ron Gotcher's forum yesterday, all in all, point to good stuff coming our way, a steady 2-3 months movement in the next two or three bulletins. I was especially psyched up by Ron Gotcher's admission of actual NVC fee bills for EB2, and the pattern he pointed out he got them in. We now have proof of NVC fee bill being a reality from famous attorney directly himself, not even his para-legals or associates.

But the only thing which kills me is why DOS moved only till 15th July 2007, and not 15th August 2007. By their own admission, they know that 15th July 2007 is not the lastmost favorable date EB2 I/C were ever at, they say it's nearing the most favorable date. It's also clear that they know concept of PWMB, and this move is only to take in guys who missed it last time. So why did they not just move it to August 15th 2007 in first shot itself. What is in their mind. I am bit perplexed. We will have to definitely just wait and watch and see events unfold.


thanks N... on other note... went thru this article

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/visa-bulletin-october-2011.html

My opinion is, he is definitely following this forum... i can make it out by the wordings used... And also, i feel he is right in the estimations keeping in view of the current allocations for EB1/EB2 ROW... any comments uncles and aunties???

[cbpds1]

Nishant,

As you had typed via ur Iphone that they are following the FB trend taking few thousands packets of applications, I am now perplexed why are u questioning urself :)

[evoori]

And we entered our page 300, we would have reached it much sooner if we wouldn't have cleaned the noise. What a wonderful forum. I really enjoy being here.

[nishant2200]

There was a post long back on some chinese website from a guy who was very excited about the NVC feel bills and had said that there was similar stuff in FB, so I researched FB, and pointed out to similar trend.

Hence we found proof that he was correct.

I am only perplexed about why only they moved till july 15th 2007 and not 15th august 2007. that gives me a bit of doubt about what they are trying to do. but 90% I feel they will follow the trend.


Nishant,

As you had typed via ur Iphone that they are following the FB trend taking few thousands packets of applications, I am now perplexed why are u questioning urself :)

[Nishant_imt]

Couple of questions for people who have already filed I-693 and got the vaccination done:

a. I got vaccinated in India for almost every vaccine suggested on USCIS website but i don't have any record to prove that. Do i need to take all the vaccines again?
b. Where can i find the list of civil surgeon for getting the I-693 filled.

[skpanda]

Friends... i got a response to the petition we signed earlier... looks like our noice could be heard.. with these things... not sure if it will actual result in any push...for reforms..


From: "Senator Marco Rubio" <Do_Not_Reply@Rubio.senate.gov>
Date: September 14, 2011 12:49:42 PM EDT
To: <?????????????@gmail.com>
Subject: Interim Response
Thank you for taking the time to contact me. I have received your message and I welcome the opportunity to address your concerns. As you await a response, please know that our office is working towards best serving the state of Florida. I appreciate hearing your views, and I understand how important these issues are to you. Please expect my response in the near future. In an effort to serve you better, please do not duplicate e-mails into the web-form, as it may serve to delay the response to your concerns. If you need immediate assistance with a federal agency, please call (866) 630-7106 toll-free in Florida. You may also contact the Orlando regional office at (407) 254-2573 or the Miami regional office at (305) 418-8553. Please do not mail correspondence to the Washington DC Office as it will delay the response to your request for assistance

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/civilsurgeons

this will answer your b.

also the form's instructions: http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-693instr.pdf see page 6 for answer to a.


Couple of questions for people who have already filed I-693 and got the vaccination done:

a. I got vaccinated in India for almost every vaccine suggested on USCIS website but i don't have any record to prove that. Do i need to take all the vaccines again?
b. Where can i find the list of civil surgeon for getting the I-693 filled.

[cbpds1]

guess they want to regulate the inflow of applications as USCIS still giving out GC's in September.

Secondly USCIS is tired and need some rest !! after processing 30k apps in 3 months.





There was a post long back on some chinese website from a guy who was very excited about the NVC feel bills and had said that there was similar stuff in FB, so I researched FB, and pointed out to similar trend.

Hence we found proof that he was correct.

I am only perplexed about why only they moved till july 15th 2007 and not 15th august 2007. that gives me a bit of doubt about what they are trying to do. but 90% I feel they will follow the trend.

[Kanmani]

No You dont need to take the vaccines.

Civil Surgeon's office will run a blood test for anti-bodies present in your blood against those vaccines you have already taken in India . They will conclude from the results what all you have taken ,and what all you have to take .



Couple of questions for people who have already filed I-693 and got the vaccination done:

a. I got vaccinated in India for almost every vaccine suggested on USCIS website but i don't have any record to prove that. Do i need to take all the vaccines again?
b. Where can i find the list of civil surgeon for getting the I-693 filled.

[Stemcell]

me too...

got BC for me and my wife... they were registered 3 or 4 years after the birth date. When my parents were in USA last time, i got two affidavits from them in the USA.

My wifes parents sent their affidavits from India.

We did all these just to be safe than sorry... it does not take much to get an affidavit done in India.. few hundred bucks (rupees) i guess...


If any one wants the affidavit template... (given to me by my company attorneys)... feel free to PM me... I will send them across..

cheers!


Dear skpanda,
Can you please PM me the template for the birth affidavit.
Thanks again.

[soggadu]

sogaddu, I actually think he does have his own ideas too, and he in fact does analysis for various categories and a multitude of immigration matters. I agree about the wordings usage, about PWMB etc. But overall looks like helpful guy, he replies to everyone's questions, in a polite manner, although it's clear the website is for commerical gains, nothing wrong in that.

His analysis is good on this one, everyone has his point of view and assumptions in calculations, as well as the stuff posted by me from Ron Gotcher's forum yesterday, all in all, point to good stuff coming our way, a steady 2-3 months movement in the next two or three bulletins. I was especially psyched up by Ron Gotcher's admission of actual NVC fee bills for EB2, and the pattern he pointed out he got them in. We now have proof of NVC fee bill being a reality from famous attorney directly himself, not even his para-legals or associates.

But the only thing which kills me is why DOS moved only till 15th July 2007, and not 15th August 2007. By their own admission, they know that 15th July 2007 is not the lastmost favorable date EB2 I/C were ever at, they say it's nearing the most favorable date. It's also clear that they know concept of PWMB, and this move is only to take in guys who missed it last time. So why did they not just move it to August 15th 2007 in first shot itself. What is in their mind. I am bit perplexed. We will have to definitely just wait and watch and see events unfold.

on this note, I am really worried if they plan to move dates again for 3 months instead of 3.5/4 months..... 3 months mean Oct 15..... Keeping my fingers, matter of fact whole body crossed.... Please god either > Oct 22 or < Oct 1.... Can't take anything else...

[bieber]

Dont worry they will make it as July 15 2008
comon now, move it couple more weeks

[skpanda]

I have received quite a few requests for affidavit template.. hence i thought i will attach it here.

If the zip file does not work, below is the cut/paste - You may have to format it in a word document.

**************

SWORN AFFIDAVIT


I, _____________________________________________do hereby depose and say:
Name of Person Signing

That I was born on _____________________ in _____________________________;
Date of Birth Place of Birth


That I am a citizen of _______________________ and that I presently reside at:
Country

_________________________________
Street


_________________________________
City, State


That I make this affidavit in order to demonstrate my knowledge of the date and place of

birth of _____________________________.

That I __________________________________________________ ____________
State Nature of Relationship, I.E. Mother, Father, Aunt, Family Friend, Etc.

and through this relationship I have personal knowledge that _______________________

is the natural child of __________________________________________________ ____
Name Both Parents

and was born on _______________________ in ______________________________;
Date of Birth Place of Birth


That the above statements are made to the best of my knowledge and belief.

______________________________________
Name of Person Making Affidavit


(NOTARY SEAL)







************************************************** *****

Enjoy!

[gcseeker]

:) Soggadu

From your lips to god's ears...if it requires me to get hold of an tambura and sing like the old movies in a dilapidated temple would gladly do that for you. Atleast the fear of me singing should force the man above to do his job . Jokes aside ...just have an hunch next bulletin might move also by 4 months exactly . Just based on psychology (CO) has been very conservative and he need not have moved the dates to July untill unless they were serious about taking in a lot more apps.

Now I hope the CO does not do this the slow way (death by a thousand cuts ) by moving it 3 weeks each bulletin untill Sep 2012 and pushes the buttons now.




on this note, I am really worried if they plan to move dates again for 3 months instead of 3.5/4 months..... 3 months mean Oct 15..... Keeping my fingers, matter of fact whole body crossed.... Please god either > Oct 22 or < Oct 1.... Can't take anything else...

[bieber]

skpanda

attached .zip file is not working

[10102007]

Soggadu,

Understand your pain buddy. This wait is killing me. I have become a Q forum addict and it's all numbers in the brain even during sleep. It is tough because we are very close to our dates becoming current but yet too far away. Feel sorry for the guys who missed it by a week or two.

Let's hope we get to apply for our 485 this year.

[jsr0101]

Thank You!


I have received quite a few requests for affidavit template.. hence i thought i will attach it here.

Enjoy!

[bieber]

Soggadu, Gcseeker

I think Aug15th (or 17th to be exact) will be a hard stop atleast for one bulletin

[Kanmani]

Bieber

I personally think the PD will halt at Apr15 2008 next FY.. added 3 more months buffer.....( Moreover can't imagine Soggadu bhai's posture)

[UkayDkay]

Folks,
Great forum, great number crunching. Regarding the processing times, just wanted to quote my friends case as a reference. His PD is 07MAR07 and is a PWMB, got current in July VB, applied 485 on 07/01/11, got FP done on 07/15/11 and had GC in hand on 08/20/11. Everything is super quick, happened in ~45days. The processing times are assumed as 4-6 months, but do you guys think USCIS has improved on that front and no longer need such long times. One instance is not a basis, but in case if people heard similar processing times else where too.

Thnx

[skpanda]

i cut/pasted the content,. All the best!!



skpanda

attached .zip file is not working